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Re: Roth or regular 457 - concerned about future tax policy

It is possible that tax laws will change in a way that makes things worse for Roth investments. It is also possible that tax laws will change in a way that makes things worse for traditional investments. The risk of adverse tax law changes is always there for any investment choice you make. That sai...
by patrick
Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth or regular 457 - concerned about future tax policy
Replies: 10
Views: 347

Re: Cheapest TV equipment and options

I use a solution that allows showing not only Hulu and Youtube but all other computer stuff on the TV, and without using any fancy extra boxes, moving between rooms to change what is playing, or having to figure out how to make my phone act as a remote: put the computer in the same room as the TV, c...
by patrick
Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheapest TV equipment and options
Replies: 19
Views: 1011

Re: Lost Decades

Unfortunately, cash and bonds have also suffered lost decades if you account for. inflation. If you look outside the US you can find plenty of lost centuries for them
by patrick
Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lost Decades
Replies: 7
Views: 1151

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

The survivorship bias results because stocks that had a short and unhappy lifetime never got on the lists we have today. Either that, or in the 19th century there were hardly any stocks that quickly failed in the US. :D An experience quite different from that of any of over twenty stock markets for...
by patrick
Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2862

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

I am not saying that at all. I am saying that in the 1800s they mainly kept track of well known stocks that had done well in the past. Basically they kept track of a stock once the stock had a favorable track record and appeared to be a company of substance. I am in no way implying that that is a g...
by patrick
Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2862

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

The commodity price index was for the state of New York -not the nation. Since food production and distribution was regional in nature back then, it would not necessarily have been representative of the nation as a whole. There is simply no way to discern how inaccurate and unrepresentative that in...
by patrick
Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2862

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

Hi Patrick, You don't honestly believe that all stocks have the same chance of being omitted do you? Do you really believe that the original Dow-Jones Index was a random collection of stocks? :D If you believe that contact me immediately by PM. I own some bridges you will want to buy. Of course I d...
by patrick
Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2862

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

I am sure they listed groups of stocks. That certainly doesn't mean they listed all stocks. Why would they be interested in lists of all traded stocks? They weren't interested in stock indexes. They didn't even think of doing that at all until the late 1800s when either Mr Dow or Mr Jones put toget...
by patrick
Wed Apr 23, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2862

Re: If you have ACA health insurance, what is your experien

Reducing unnecessary emergency room costs of treating uninsured folks, in theory, should end up lowering medical expenditures, without reducing actual medical/health benefits received. I think it is probably too early to reach conclusions on whether this is true, but, I did read, however, that for ...
by patrick
Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have ACA health insurance, what is your experience?
Replies: 209
Views: 8454

Re: Can my computer hear me?

Sounds more like just keying on "brain" and "loan" -- even though the adds are about different types of loans and related to brains in different ways, there's no requirement of a precise fit.
by patrick
Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can my computer hear me?
Replies: 33
Views: 2466

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

If a particular company issued stock from 1810-1819 and then went out of business, or was merged into another company, and all the stock price data on that company was discarded over a 150 years ago, then how are we going to know about it? That’s a form of survivorship bias and probably happened at...
by patrick
Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2862

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

There is no reason to set aside the issue of whether real stock market returns in the 1800s are accurate, for the simple reason that they cannot possibly be accurate. The further back we go in the 1800s the less accurate are the stock market data. Stock market data from before 1870 has been compile...
by patrick
Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2862

Re: looking at the 3 fund approach....2.3% 5 yr return ???

That number must be wrong. Total bond has returned 4.6% per year over the past 5 years, total international stock market returned 14.1% per year, and total US stock market returned 20% per year. The specific return of a 3 fund portfolio would depend on the fractions in each and rebalancing schedule ...
by patrick
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: looking at the 3 fund approach....2.3% 5 yr return ???
Replies: 19
Views: 2383

Re: Windows Connectivity/Security Question

The computer is connected to the network before you log in. However, this does not mean that there is much vulnerability. Intrusion is (for the most part) not something that happens just because you are connected. Rather you only get attacked when do things like going to an evil web site (which coul...
by patrick
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows Connectivity/Security Question
Replies: 17
Views: 835

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

The correct lesson to draw from Japan is: Don't buy stocks with a CAPE 10 of 90. You might as well just set money on fire. No intelligent investor should buy equities trading at such ratios. It is unclear, to say the least, whether any conclusions can be drawn about the dangers of markets with reas...
by patrick
Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4154

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

I doubt any of us fully understands stocks either. I surely don't!
by patrick
Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4471

Re: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?

The risk of loss due to adverse government actions always exists for every sector. If you want to move out of biotech specifically right now due to such risks, just ask yourself: do you know something important that everyone else doesn't? For instance, is the concern over the price you mentioned som...
by patrick
Sat Apr 12, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 2679

Re: Just returned new laptop with Window 8.1

Better watch out -- it's only 3 years until the end of support for Vista!
by patrick
Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Just returned new laptop with Window 8.1
Replies: 104
Views: 7829

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

New York has higher state taxes than California. Not necessarily. In New York sales tax is 4% to 9% depending on locality. In California sales tax goes from 7.5% all the way to 10%. For income tax California is lower on low incomes (because it starts out with 1% and 2% brackets) but even middle cla...
by patrick
Mon Apr 07, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 8559

Re: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW

I dual booted, but you need a second partition for the second OS. It always worked best to put in another drive in my desktops, but you can't do that in a laptop. That is why I suggest a USB drive for the Linux partition. If you want to just use the existing hard drive, I think you'll need to refor...
by patrick
Mon Mar 31, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW
Replies: 61
Views: 2366

Re: [New 8th Circuit Ruling Striking Down High 401K Fees]

Most of the trial courts judgment was reversed and sent back for modification including the 12.9M awarded to Schecter law firm as legal fees Judgment against fidelity for 1.7M was vacated and Fidelity was dismissed from the case which mean it cannot be liable for paying any legal fees Judgment of 2...
by patrick
Mon Mar 31, 2014 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [New 8th Circuit Ruling Striking Down High 401K Fees]
Replies: 44
Views: 2493

Re: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW

I dual booted, but you need a second partition for the second OS. It always worked best to put in another drive in my desktops, but you can't do that in a laptop. That is why I suggest a USB drive for the Linux partition. If you want to just use the existing hard drive, I think you'll need to refor...
by patrick
Mon Mar 31, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW
Replies: 61
Views: 2366

Re: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW

Just an amateur computer guy, but your machine is easily powerful enough to perform these tasks - likely surprisingly quicker than windows xp. I would consider a "Live Distribution" to start - these are typically full fledged operating systems that boot from a CD without permanently insta...
by patrick
Mon Mar 31, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW
Replies: 61
Views: 2366

Re: Replacement for Windows XP Computer

Then you have your answer. The rest is ample for most purposes (you'll fill that hard drive if you start storing video, but you should have external backup anyways). Paying $50 or $100 more for an i7 processor won't kill you, and might buy you another 1-2 years use (when we get to full online videc...
by patrick
Sat Mar 29, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacement for Windows XP Computer
Replies: 72
Views: 4191

Re: US stock market is rigged to hurt the avg investor

Explain how exactly this hurts a buy and hold investor in a TSM fund. By depressing equity prices? Unless the HFT profits are created out of thin air, somebody has to be paying for it. That you are not trading your particular shares doesn't mean other's aren't trading theirs. It is the prices they ...
by patrick
Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]
Replies: 107
Views: 6268

Re: Why does a Boglehead move to an adviser at 1.25% AUM?

Wildebeest wrote:When I read the tagline, I thought this was a joke as in "Why does the chicken cross the road ?".


Because he wants to pay the road advisor 1.25% for road timing advice?
by patrick
Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does a Boglehead move to an adviser at 1.25% AUM?
Replies: 63
Views: 4241

Re: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So

No one addressed my statement of EEMS at 2:35 today. I wonder why. I feel it`s very important. Can some opinions come in on this? I think most of it was addressed before you made it. Several have already pointed out that the large / medium / small categories are based on arbitrary dividing lines. T...
by patrick
Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So
Replies: 67
Views: 4293

Re: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So

Even if you did use a fund that follows a purely rules-based index (like most of Vanguard's non-S&P index funds) it would probably not show up as 100% exactly where you want. There is no universally agreed definition for where the barriers between large, mid, and small should be. Furthermore, as...
by patrick
Tue Mar 25, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So
Replies: 67
Views: 4293

Re: Installing Win8.1 on an old PC - one successful data poi

A PC from 2007 is much newer than Windows XP, which was released back in 2001! If you had bought your PC back when Windows XP was new, you might have had half a gigabyte of memory if you were lucky, but many PCs had much less. Windows 8 is not likely to work well (if at all) on such a machine. Lubun...
by patrick
Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Installing Win8.1 on an old PC - one successful data point
Replies: 24
Views: 1595

Re: U.S. Dollar Hedged International Index Funds

Stocks and bonds are different as to currency effects. A bond is a promise to pay a specific amount in a specific currency, so naturally has its value tied to that currency. But when you are investing in stocks, you get fractional ownership of companies, not promises for certain amounts of certain c...
by patrick
Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Dollar Hedged International Index Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 386

Re: VUL (w/ 50% match) vs. 457B (non-match) vs. 529s

In considering the VUL cost, it's not only a matter of the expense ratios on the investments themselves. There is also likely to be a premium load on everything coming in, and an overall fee on the whole policy separate from the investment option fees. Also pay attention to the cost of insurance cha...
by patrick
Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VUL (w/ 50% match) vs. 457B (non-match) vs. 529s
Replies: 16
Views: 678

Re: Replacement for Windows XP Computer

I doubt the difference between otherwise identical i3 and i7 machines would be that easy to notice. The main difference between i7 and i3 is that it usually has more cores (4 on the i7 versus 2 on the i3). The i7 has double the cpu cache compared to the i3 and it supports turbo boost which bumps up...
by patrick
Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacement for Windows XP Computer
Replies: 72
Views: 4191

Re: What is the best way to invest in California municipal b

There are a few index ETFs available for California municipal bonds: http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/california-munis/#expenses In this case using the index fund gives higher costs than the actively managed Vanguard funds. But then again, 20 or 25 basis points isn't that outrageous, is it? Note also...
by patrick
Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best way to invest in California municipal bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 544

Re: Time to see where things stand with High Yield Bonds

Perhaps the compressed spreads mean that the market has concluded that high yield bonds are not as risky as they used to be. And who are we to disagree with the market?
by patrick
Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to see where things stand with High Yield Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1388

Re: Replacement for Windows XP Computer

IMO, this is the problem with an SSD approach. 250GB of storage isn't very future-proof, and unless you're willing to deal with 2 drives, stepping up to 500GB means a $200 increase vs. an HDD. IMO, you'd get more future proofing for less money with an i5 processor and an HDD. In 2-3 years you could...
by patrick
Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacement for Windows XP Computer
Replies: 72
Views: 4191

Re: Seriously! [Why own bonds now]

Why is it considered against the rules to consider TIPS when people are discussing bonds? Perhaps because TIPS are, rightly or wrongly, considered as a specialized niche investment. They are a small fraction of all bonds by market cap. I suspect that when people say that everyone should have at lea...
by patrick
Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seriously! [Why own bonds now]
Replies: 35
Views: 5073

Re: "How Much Should You Pay a Financial Advisor?" by Mike P

We agree that the literature establishes that we are all very biased. I think we agree that the literature establishes that we are all prone to bias blindness -- that we see bias in others much better than we see it in ourselves. I am aware of no study that makes the specific comparison you're afte...
by patrick
Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How Much Should You Pay a Financial Advisor?" by Mike Piper
Replies: 64
Views: 4851

Re: Help deciding to surrender Variable Annuity or not

What would be the payout rate if you did annuitize it? The annuity payout is based on the GMIB, which is much higher than the cash value, which might suggest it is better to annuitize. However, keep in mind that these things often would give you a worse annuity rate than buying an immediate annuity,...
by patrick
Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help deciding to surrender Variable Annuity or not
Replies: 22
Views: 1095

Re: "How Much Should You Pay a Financial Advisor?" by Mike P

Even assuming everyone has the time, ability and interest to do the requisite work (and to keep doing it), our cognitive and behavioral biases conspire against us at every point. For example, what Daniel Kahneman calls the "planning fallacy" causes us dramatically to overestimate our abil...
by patrick
Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How Much Should You Pay a Financial Advisor?" by Mike Piper
Replies: 64
Views: 4851

Re: ANY secure Internet access while traveling?

Smartphones can act as hot spots (that is, provide Internet access over Wi-Fi) but this is of limited use for a couple of reasons. First, if you set up security on the hot spot it only encrypts the communications between your PC and your phone. The phone will then send the data out to the general In...
by patrick
Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ANY secure Internet access while traveling?
Replies: 54
Views: 3360

Re: International and bond advice for young investor

The usual reason for including bonds would be to reduce risk. Being able to buy more stocks after a stock market decline could be helpful (if you are brave enough to actually do so!) but on average would not make up for the lower returns from not holding stocks all along. Unless of course you know f...
by patrick
Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and bond advice for young investor
Replies: 10
Views: 689

Re: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much

There are in fact new computers being sold with Windows 7. See for instance http://shopping.hp.com/en_US/home-office/-/products/Desktops/HP-Pavilion/F9A61AV?HP-Pavilion-500-Desktop-PC-with-Windows-7 -- you can tell this one is new because it uses the 4th generation core i3 processor which was releas...
by patrick
Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much
Replies: 42
Views: 2281

Re: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much

You can get a refurbished Dell with a one year warranty with Win 7 from Newegg for $159, or even less. http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=9SIA2081DZ0298 Note that is a very old computer. It uses a Pentium D processor which was already superseded by the Core 2 Duo in the middle of 2006....
by patrick
Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much
Replies: 42
Views: 2281

Re: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much

But nobody has answered my question. What is the specific name of the boxed retail product I need to buy if I wish to upgrade a) Microsoft Windows XP Pro, or b) Microsoft Windows Media Center, to Microsoft Windows 7? May I shouldn't want to do that, but let's say I do. For the record, the PCs in qu...
by patrick
Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much
Replies: 42
Views: 2281

Re: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much

Upgrade can mean two different things: First, it can mean an upgrade installation. This means an in-place update of Windows which keeps all the previously installed applications still available. Windows has never been able to an upgrade installation from XP to 7. However, it can do an upgrade instal...
by patrick
Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: XP to 7--please spell out what I buy, where, how much
Replies: 42
Views: 2281

Re: I don't want to upgrade XP just yet, is that ok?

"The vast majority of bank ATMs around the world currently run on Windows XP. Come April 8, when Microsoft cuts off support for Windows XP, the vast majority of those bank ATMs will still be running XP." -- ATMs will still run Windows XP . If it's good enough for banks, it's probably good...
by patrick
Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I don't want to upgrade XP just yet, is that ok?
Replies: 86
Views: 6368

Re: is 4gb memory, 500gb hd adequate for new desktop?

There will likely be a performance difference between 4gb memory and 8gb. 8gb is a reasonable minimum these days. Memory that is compatible with your computer will become more expensive with time, so better to buy more now. Unless you are going to wait >5 years to upgrade your memory, memory will c...
by patrick
Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: is 4gb memory, 500gb hd adequate for new desktop?
Replies: 56
Views: 1873

Re: Are Long-Term Bonds be better than Short-Term?

This sort of strategy is not really protecting completely. It's always possible for prices to fall. Perhaps the idea was that you'd be protected because you plan to hold to maturity, but a lot could happen in 15 years to change your mind. The longer term you buy the more likely some reason to sell w...
by patrick
Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Long-Term Bonds better than Short-Term?
Replies: 49
Views: 3024

Re: Fidelity fraud

I certainly hope this is an isolated incident at Fidelity and not something that was known/condoned by high-level management. I doubt that any company takes a case all the way to the Supreme Court unless top management is 100% involved and desperate to cover up. I'm glad I'm not one of their custom...
by patrick
Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity fraud
Replies: 12
Views: 1768

Re: Commodity Index ETF Massive Tracking Error?

As with most commodity ETFs this uses futures which don't aways give the same results as the spot prices. They aren't going to store a huge amount of gasoline for 5 years. Instead they purchase futures which should already incorporate expected movemnts in prices, and so the futures would only gain i...
by patrick
Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodity Index ETF Massive Tracking Error?
Replies: 6
Views: 428
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