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Re: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .

The vast majority of retirees make do with far less.
by patrick
Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .
Replies: 27
Views: 1845

Re: BND or a CD

Help me understand: Assume I purchase shares of BND today when the SEC yield is 2% and the duration is 5.5 years. If I wait that duration and reinvest all dividends (excluding any taxes), should I not expect to get about 2% annually at the end? Not necessarily. If you buy it today (or probably tomo...
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 25
Views: 1624

Re: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?

While Total World is cheap compared to the average fund, it is still more expense than covering the total world by a combination of Total US and Total International. Furthermore, Total World doesn't really have a simplicity advantage either since it doesn't include small caps, and therefore you'd re...
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?
Replies: 13
Views: 1535

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

Well, at least this makes me feel a little better about costing Schwab so much money in ATM fees while never giving them any commissions. I still think they're deep in the red with my account.... I assure you they are not in the red. Have you looked at the fees they charge for money market funds? R...
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 39
Views: 2623

Re: How to calculate rate of return on cash value life insur

The 6.5% value is probably the dividend rate based on the cash value, which is certainly not the same as what is meant by an interest rate in other circumstances. It looks like you have been putting money in for about 26 years, which means you have put in about $4290 in total. Assuming that you have...
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate rate of return on cash value life insurance
Replies: 3
Views: 277

Re: MS Windows 7 Dead [in 2020]?

The linked article was actually about the end of sales of new OEM licenses, not the end of support, although I have read end of support panic over Windows 7 elsewhere. If you want something to worry about, note that Windows Server 2003 extended support ends next year, and Vista extended support ends...
by patrick
Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MS Windows 7 Dead [in 2020]?
Replies: 23
Views: 1672

Re: Global Equity Markets — 40 Years of Evolution at a Glanc

International investing was possible for US investors long ago. According to http://investor.shareholder.com/jpmorganchase/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=239889 the first ADR (from the UK) was listed in New York in 1927. Although I couldn't find anything about this in a quick Google search, it might al...
by patrick
Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Equity Markets — 40 Years of Evolution at a Glance
Replies: 10
Views: 1274

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

The distinction of growth and value isn't quite the same as a prediction as to which companies are undervalued. You might expect a "value" company to outperform because it is a good value, but you'd also expect a "growth" company to outperform because it is going to grow! The res...
by patrick
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2041

Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

If you can't remember 2008-2009, then do your best to remember 2011, the year behavioral finance expert Cass Sunstein "seeing a decline in [my] fund’s value, decided to sell a significant chunk," and did so, despite talking to his co-author who told him "Reread our book!" But if...
by patrick
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 36
Views: 3790

Re: Vanguard total international

Vanguard Total International now uses the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index instead of an MSCI index, although the results would be very similar either way. Stocks with extremely low market caps are a very large portion of all stocks when you count the number of companies, but a very small portion whe...
by patrick
Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total international
Replies: 6
Views: 1226

Re: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yiel

Don't forget that the yield decline of the last 6 months was only good for bond investors that only plan to hold for the short term. If you are going to hold your bonds for the long term then the yield decline is actually bad for you since it means you'll get less interest in the future.
by patrick
Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3950

Re: Why include International Index in AA?

This is probably the most compelling argument I have heard in favor of International Index investing. The last time I checked, VTSMX had 3780 different holdings. Saying that I need another fund just for diversification is nonsense. However, if the current assets in this index are heavy in certain s...
by patrick
Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why include International Index in AA?
Replies: 39
Views: 2769

Re: Windows XP

An XP machine can be protected easily from most means of attacks, but why bother taking the extra risk? Most attacks do not go after the OS itself. The bad guys could just mail you a file named awesomestocktips.exe. If you want the stock tips badly enough to run the file and click yes on the securit...
by patrick
Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP
Replies: 62
Views: 2959

Re: Be careful if you get this email

It is not particularly easy to get infected from malicious e-mail. For starters, many e-mail providers will just strip out all executable attachments. Some providers such as gmail go even further and don't even let any executables inside zip files get through. Once you do get the evil executable, cl...
by patrick
Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Be careful if you get this email [scam, infected with virus]
Replies: 12
Views: 1959

Re: Do you every turn your smart phone off?

Set it and forget it ... why bother tinkering with the on/off setting every day?
by patrick
Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you every turn your smart phone off?
Replies: 36
Views: 1935

Re: Recommend a NAS HD

No real answer, but I will note that the type of storage used can impact the performance. If you are using an external USB drive for storage then (assuming you have a USB3.0 machine and drive) then you can get very high speeds -- for instance I get 180 megabytes per second on a USB stick. With a net...
by patrick
Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a NAS HD
Replies: 17
Views: 816

Re: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks

So... what did you do in October 2008? I was becoming a boglehead in my 401K with these trades (buy/sell totals don't match due to new contributions): bought 18400 of stock index funds sold 17300 of active stock funds ... I think this was probably my last active stock fund ever :D sold 100 of bond ...
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 4430

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Today's 300+ (334.97, to be exact) point loss was only a 1.97% loss.

If it had happened back in March 2009 the same point loss could have been a 5% loss. :happy
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30536

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Although I'm not the previous poster, I can tell you which type. All of them! The cost matters hypothesis is about active investors in the aggregate, not on any particular active investor or subgroup of active investors. Then how do you account for the fact that many active investors exclusively or...
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 15624

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

1. Not important ones that would materially change it, and it's the central point of the BH philosophy as I see it,... Actually, I think this gets at the crux of the issue of the arguments over active vs passive. There are exactly 8,732 types of active investors (more or less ;)). Which type are yo...
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 15624

Re: Why Hold Cash in Retirement Account

Traditionally it would make sense to use a tax-deferred account for cash because it's returns would be taxed at the higher ordinary income rates instead of the lower capital gains tax rate. Of course now that it is paying 0.01% that's doesn't seem to apply, but maybe one of these days it will go bac...
by patrick
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Hold Cash in Retirement Account
Replies: 21
Views: 1660

Re: Bonds Beware

I would not count on it not being limited to 3% . You really have to look at the data for yourself and make your own judgement. But I do think the anti-bond rhetoric is regularly exaggerated. For example, if we look at "The Great American Bond Bubble"--Google on the exact phrase to avoid ...
by patrick
Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beware
Replies: 34
Views: 4441

Re: Bonds Beware

If you are bold enough to use extremely long duration treasuries, there is recent precedent for much larger losses than 5%. For instance, the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV, I believe the fund shown in the graph above) exprienced a loss of 40% from December 26, 2008 to January 11, 2010...
by patrick
Sun Oct 05, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beware
Replies: 34
Views: 4441

Re: [which] toilet paper [from walmart.com?]

When I was exploring frugality options for retiring, the conclusion I came to was that a) toilet paper, despite its impressive bulk, was not an important budget item; I suppose that depends on what you consider important. According to my precise calculations, in the first 9 months of this year, I s...
by patrick
Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [which] toilet paper [from walmart.com?]
Replies: 36
Views: 2969

Re: Supreme Court to hear fiduciary duty/high cost funds cas

Choosing the best share class isn't all that matters. Suppose there is an active fund that has an institutional class charging 1.25% and a retail class charging 1.5%. It would help somewhat for a plan sponsor to replace the retail class of this fund with the institutional class in a 401K. But it wou...
by patrick
Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Supreme Court to hear fiduciary duty/high cost funds case
Replies: 13
Views: 1366

Re: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?

I don't have any severe violations like individual stocks, high cost active funds, or putting everything in the latest hot sector. However, I do all of the following which are arguably deviations from standard boglehead practice, whatever that is: 1) I have one active fund, though it is low cost: Va...
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?
Replies: 64
Views: 3851

Re: Buying more when markets are down

Ah yes, the brave talk you hear when the market is up! It makes me smile. Normally from the young bucks with few posts. The thing is the brave talk starts getting less and less the more the market drops. I suggest sticking with your plan. If that is rebalance bands or something else you will be doi...
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying more when markets are down
Replies: 61
Views: 5165

Re: Lower risk & return if equity allocation is below 30-40%

Also for the poster above just because you liability match bonds to your needs does NOT mean it does not have volatility. Bonds are repriced continuously. Just because you don't peek at the value before they are needed does not make them less volatile. Otherwise I could say the same thing about sto...
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower risk & return if equity allocation is below 30-40%?
Replies: 19
Views: 1160

Re: R u selling PIMCO bond fund

I sold it long ago, but did so in order to move to lower cost funds rather than because of any specific person there.
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: R u selling PIMCO bond fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2779

Re: Emergency room consent

We do as best as we can to keep patients from getting a surprise $50,000 hospital bill for being admitted. However, ultimately, it's not our responsibility. Just like it's not Best Buy's responsibility to ensure you are paying the lowest price for your laptop. Best Buy does, however, do something r...
by patrick
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency room consent
Replies: 61
Views: 3423

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

John - you can't get more certainty than CD's. What makes you think stocks or bonds offer more certainty. During periods of high inflation, equities and bonds do poorly. The 11 years from 1970 to 1981 was one of the worst inflationary periods ever seen, but during that period CD's vastly outperform...
by patrick
Sun Sep 28, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 5262

Re: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" ser

In many cases the stringent taxi regulations only apply for cabs that can be hailed from the street. This is the case in New York City, for example. NYC does not require million dollar taxi medallions to run a for hire car service that is called by phone instead of being hailed from the street, thou...
by patrick
Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" service
Replies: 54
Views: 3739

Re: Risk and the Trinity Study

The Trinity Study may have weighed all market conditions based on history, but it only looked at 70 years of history for one country. I wonder what the results would look like for the 1926-1995 period for Germany, Italy or Japan? I know, I know the U.S. Is different , but....... Among other things,...
by patrick
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and the Trinity Study
Replies: 33
Views: 1921

Re: External backup drives - Seagate vs Western Digital

I think all major drive manufacturers have multiple levels of quality. You need to pay extra to get more reliability. I think consumer grade drives are prone to early failure and that's why you see so many negative reviews on places like Amazon. I wouldn't be surprised if 99% of the hard drives sol...
by patrick
Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: External backup drives - Seagate vs Western Digital
Replies: 43
Views: 2904

Re: Roth IRA vs Mutual Fund. Inexperienced Investor

Even if you don't file a tax return, the limits still apply. Note that your wages still get reported to the IRS so they might notice if you contribute more than that. Note also that, even if you are not required to file a tax return, it might be beneficial to do so in order to get a tax refund.
by patrick
Mon Sep 15, 2014 2:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA vs Mutual Fund. Inexperienced Investor
Replies: 11
Views: 654

Re: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

The Fulminate Five, for those who really believe in the correlation benefits of different highly volatile assets: 20% VGSLX Vanguard REIT Index Fund (Admiral, of course!) 20% RZV Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value 20% SFILX Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index 20% DGS WisdomT...
by patrick
Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 55
Views: 4336

5-year TIPS real yield goes positive!

I just noticed that, for the first time in months, the real yield on the 5-year TIPS has now gone positive. All the way up to 0.05 percent. Perhaps it's time to quit buying those I bonds?

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... =realyield
by patrick
Tue Sep 09, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year TIPS real yield goes positive!
Replies: 6
Views: 1121

Re: Socially Irresponsible Fund

With an expense ratio of 1.47% ... consider your responsibility to yourself before buying!
by patrick
Tue Sep 09, 2014 12:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Irresponsible Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1497

Re: Are there any real total bond funds?

The prospectus is reserving to the fund manager the right to do that which is allowed under US legislation - to put up to 20% in anything not otherwise specified. You'd be hard pressed to find a bond, or stock, or for that matter any, mutual fund or ETF, index or otherwise, where the prospectus doe...
by patrick
Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any real total bond funds?
Replies: 65
Views: 3065

Re: Bond Funds and Interest Rates Question

If you are planning to hold the fund for longer than its duration, you should ask how much you will gain from an interest rate increase, not how much you will lose.
by patrick
Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bond Funds and Interest Rates Question
Replies: 17
Views: 1307

Re: Why invest in bonds?

Just because the last stock market crash recovered quickly is no guarantee that the next one will. Unfortunately, bonds don't really guarantee safety either. Interest rate increases aren't the real problem since. for long term investors, you'll get back more money due to the higher coupon payments. ...
by patrick
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6602

Re: If my 70/30 Stock/Bond portfolio matched the S&P500 gain

does that mean I'm getting less risk for free? It did what it did, but the future may be different. Over the past 15 year period, 100% in a short-term bond fund had the same return as 100% in S&P500... but that's a period dependent event, and very sensitive to how you choose your start/end time...
by patrick
Sun Aug 24, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If my 70/30 Stock/Bond portfolio matched the S&P500 gains
Replies: 7
Views: 1750

Re: Dell computer warranty upgrades

A low-end desktop computer isn't likely to be worth very much after you've been using it for 3 to 5 years. The $95 warranty cost is probably a very large fraction of what value the computer will have left when it takes effect.
by patrick
Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dell computer warranty upgrades
Replies: 5
Views: 362

Re: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?

The actual cost of a defined benefit plan is always going to be unknown. The amount of money that actually must go in will depend on how the plan investments perform. For corporate (not government) plans the standard rule is based on bond yields so that more money has to be in the plan for it to be ...
by patrick
Mon Aug 18, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?
Replies: 36
Views: 1855

Re: Mac Airbook

The Windows version of Safari is not being updated any more -- I wouldn't expect it to match the Mac Safari.
by patrick
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mac Airbook
Replies: 38
Views: 3344

Re: Mac Airbook

In general it should be possible to open Word/Excel documents using the usual Mac software, though for some very complex/bizarre documents there may be problems. If you want to check this in advance, you can install LibreOffice or AbiWord/Gnumeric, all of which are free, on your PC now to see how we...
by patrick
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mac Airbook
Replies: 38
Views: 3344

Re: Too Good to be True? Universal Life

The insurance policy would not normally be free. There should at least be a cost of insurnce charge which could be higher than the price of purchasing insurance elsewhere.
by patrick
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too Good to be True? Universal Life
Replies: 11
Views: 1155

Re: Two factor identification and your password safe

It is possible that your password could be cracked more easily than indicated on that site. For example, if your password is qwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnm it will be cracked very quickly even though 26 random lowercase letters would indeed be virtually uncrackable. Beyond that, there are other problems...
by patrick
Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Two factor identification and your password safe
Replies: 31
Views: 2078

Re: Need for International Investing ?

If needing it means that disaster is likely without it, then (if you are a US investor) you don't need international investing. You will probably come out OK if you have only US investments. But by that definition, you don't need US investments either. You will probably come out OK with non-US inves...
by patrick
Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 56
Views: 3115
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