Search found 885 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Bond Fund vs CDs - which to use?

I don't want to get into an argument about SEC yield and effective returns at duration (instead of returns at maturity). This won't help our new member. Why not? Of course, the yields aren't the only thing to consider. There are also more subtle matters regarding the yield curve, the level of risk ...
by patrick
Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund vs CDs - which to use?
Replies: 41
Views: 2689

Re: Bond Fund vs CDs - which to use?

Choosing one or the other based not on need (FDIC protection, liquidity, etc.) but on metrics (SEC yield, interest rates) is factually a form of market timing (tactical fixed income allocation). The last few years have proved that choosing the right product (bond fund or CD) based on these metrics ...
by patrick
Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund vs CDs - which to use?
Replies: 41
Views: 2689

Re: What desktop should I buy.

And nothing will really last 10 years (unless you install a lightweight linux distro on it). If you try to make it 10 years with a Windows or Mac OS (without timing it perfectly) you are either going to get left behind and no longer receive security updates (windows 8.1 end of life is 8 years from ...
by patrick
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What desktop should I buy.
Replies: 36
Views: 2572

Re: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"

The current price of $1196 is shockingly close to the average prediction of $1209 ... of course there are still 15 days left in which anything can happen.
by patrick
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gold to tank in 2014: Goldman Sachs"
Replies: 109
Views: 9834

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

2014 isn't over yet. But so far there are other investments (and not just single stocks) that have done worse. Take a look at this YTD result: -61% UGAZ VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN And here is something else not that much better than Bitcoin, and so might end up worse when the year actual...
by patrick
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 17
Views: 2192

Re: Does it make sense for me to buy EE Bonds?

Compare that with the 20 year treasury bond which now yields all of 2.45 percent! If you can hold the EE bond 20 years and thus get the 3.53 percent annual return, plus the tax deferral, the EE bond seems like a very good deal these days.
by patrick
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does it make sense for me to buy EE Bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 775

Re: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little

The worst loss that is possible is quite high indeed. If you held German bonds in the early 1920s, then your loss (rounded to the nearest whole number percent) was 100 percent. Since it's happened before (even though in a foreign country) I presume it is at least possible to happen again. Of course ...
by patrick
Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little
Replies: 32
Views: 2939

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

80/20 definitely has more volatility than 60/40. In general more stocks means more volatility except at the very low end, for instance 5/95 is less volatile than 0/100. If you define risk as volatility then 80/20 is riskier too. If you look at US history stocks seem to be safe if held a very long ti...
by patrick
Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2660

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

I disagree that there ever was a consensus against long term bonds in general. There may have been something close to a consensus against long term corporate bonds but that was based on the idea that they aren't compensated for the extra default risk. I don't fully agree with that either -- historic...
by patrick
Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3182

Re: (Poll) Did you tap into emergency fund in the past 10 ye

I'ts hard to say since it depends on the definition, but in my case the answer is probably no. If an emergency fund is something that is set asset for emergencies only, then unless every expenditure is defined as an emergency and therefore all savings are the emergency fund, I don't have an emergenc...
by patrick
Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Poll) Did you tap into emergency fund in the past 10 years?
Replies: 56
Views: 3814

Re: 'Might Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change

Here's where he first defines it: http://pragcap.com/is-the-global-financial-asset-portfolio-the-perfect-indexing-strategy So, there is a paper written in early 2014 that may not even have been published yes--it says "forthcoming"-- From my brief glance at the page, the "GFAP" s...
by patrick
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4171

Re: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holding

My view is that this is a manufactured controversy to get headlines, and it is working. Jack Bogle's views on international are not that ironic if you consider how interconnected the world economy is. Even if you have a nominally 100% US portfolio, in reality, because so many companies in that port...
by patrick
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4171

Re: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holding

These are annualized returns for the last 15 years (longest period on Morningstar's website): 5.26% -- Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) 3.84% -- Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index Fund (VGTSX) Mr. Bogle is seldom wrong. :sharebeer Best wishes. Taylor Meanwhile, here ...
by patrick
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4171

Re: Commission fees and monthly contributioins

I think you could use Fidelity's own real estate index fund if you've decided that you should include a REIT index in your portfolio.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutua ... /316146240
by patrick
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My investment choices
Replies: 8
Views: 250

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

Unfortunately employer plans adjust the lineup to chase performance quite often and in just about every asset class. This risk isn't limited to emerging markets value. It's not even limited to equities.
by patrick
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2123

Re: What % of your fixed-income is TIPs?

I fall in that camp that would say that if TIPS make sense for an investor because that investor wants to avoid [unexpected] inflation risk, at least in the fixed income holdings, then it makes sense to be only TIPS. Regular ol' bonds and bond funds that hold them are priced to avoid inflation risk...
by patrick
Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your fixed-income is TIPs?
Replies: 71
Views: 3503

Re: Oil / Energy ETFs

Point #1: When the USO and OIL ETNs were introduced, the press gushed over the wonders of these innovative new products that for the first time gave retail investors access to those investments. Those investors rubbed their hands with glee as oil prices rose until they noticed that their shares of ...
by patrick
Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil / Energy ETFs
Replies: 54
Views: 3712

Re: Buying a Computer. Need recommendations.

There are other options out there to a Chromebook. Have you seen the new HP Stream laptops? They come in 11 inch and 13 inch screen sizes and seem to be the Windows equivalent of the Chromebook. (ie: Windows 8.1 OS, 32GB HDD, etc). Prices are $199 and $219 respectively. With the black Friday deals ...
by patrick
Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a Computer. Need recommendations.
Replies: 52
Views: 4953

Re: non US bonds - a new asset class?

One aspect I have never liked is the index has the largest weighting to the country with the most debt. Equity funds have the highest weighting to the most valuable companies! That's an interesting statement, but I believe the index represents a weighting of what bonds are on the market. Buyers det...
by patrick
Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: non US bonds - a new asset class?
Replies: 11
Views: 838

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

...My take is that you should value something at what you would be willing to pay for it on the open market, even if that market does not exist... Well, there is an authentic question here. When entering numbers in a spreadsheet, when should I use "the market value" and when should I use ...
by patrick
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3722

Re: 60/40 edging my 95/5!

This is however due to underperformance of non-US stocks, not the stock/bond split -- 95/5 using SWPPX and VBTLX would have done even better.
by patrick
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60/40 edging my 95/5!
Replies: 8
Views: 2093

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

In the case of a savings bonds, there is a market. It's just that there is only one buyer, the Treasury. It is not correct to say there is no market price. For an illiquid security, there is no market price, but savings bonds are not illiquid, they are highly liquid, and accurate quotations of the ...
by patrick
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3722

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Mel Lindauer has pointed out that they cannot be used legally as loan collateral, so you cannot tapdance around it that way, either. It is my personal belief that the only sensible dollar value of a savings bond is its current redemption value at the Treasury. And, yes, that means that I truly beli...
by patrick
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3722

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Mutual funds value at the market price. For the EE bond there is no open market and thus no market price.
by patrick
Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3722

Re: Buying a Computer. Need recommendations.

Some web sites are full of bloated scripts that are highly demanding of your computer's resources, but bogleheads.org is fortunately not one of them. Email shouldn't need much either. Unless your other windows open are far more demanding a 4 year old computer shouldn't be that slow, so perhaps the o...
by patrick
Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a Computer. Need recommendations.
Replies: 52
Views: 4953

Re: Buying a Computer. Need recommendations.

I actually think SSDs are nice, but not at all a required feature for a new computer. They do make things slightly faster, but it's not a revelation by any stretch. But if you do decide to go Chromebook, there are Chromebooks with SSD drives. I just found the below one - not at all saying it's the ...
by patrick
Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a Computer. Need recommendations.
Replies: 52
Views: 4953

Re: Moving current 401k funds into brokerage link?

A BrokerageLink can be useful if (a) transactions are large, (b) infrequent and (c) give you a large advantage in expenses. Otherwise fees for use of the BrokerageLink can eat up the expense ratio advantage you try to get. What are the fees for use of the BrokergeLink? There are usually annual fees...
by patrick
Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving current 401k funds into brokerage link?
Replies: 30
Views: 1704

Re: Storing/Organizing Memory Sticks

The big advantage of thumb drives is that they're in the same ballpark of cost per gigabyte as rotating drives, they store enough to be useful, but are a small enough chunk that you don't lose "everything" if one of them goes. This doesn't sound right to me. These days the rotating disks ...
by patrick
Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Storing/Organizing Memory Sticks
Replies: 25
Views: 1674

Re: smartphone over wifi - still possible?

The lock on a phone normally prevents using the phone with a different phone network and doesn't limit wifi. However, the phone company might not want to give you a no-data plan if you have a smartphone, though a low-data plan would probably be available.
by patrick
Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: smartphone over wifi - still possible?
Replies: 31
Views: 2681

Re: GAO Concerned your IRA may be too big!

a dual-professional couple who aggressively saved and invested in qualified 401k (with full employer contributions) beginning upon departure from school is in serious danger of running afoul of the 5,000,000 figure that is a recurring theme of the GAO report. In a country of over 300,000,000 people...
by patrick
Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GAO Concerned your IRA may be too big!
Replies: 25
Views: 3673

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

we can go back and forth on this forever... I do not know how T bills are corelated with CDs, you keep quoting T bills and I am not even that familiar with their structure, never bought them and don't intend to buy what I don't understand. I will try to find some CD data going back further, you wan...
by patrick
Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

you mean 10 year treasury bond fund? or 10 year treasury, If I bought 10 year treasury in 1940 and I lost on average 2% per year, I would probably not buy another10 year Treasury at that time and keep losing, if you are talking about treasury bond fund that's a different story, I admit bonds have i...
by patrick
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

my graph shows CDs NET gains after inflation, inflation is taken into account so 3% loss after inflation only happened very few times. I don't pretend to know what happened in Germany in 1920 but they went through 2 wars both of which they lost, and if we are in a war we are fighting for your lives...
by patrick
Thu Nov 20, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

there are no guarantees, agreed, but the likelihood of dramatic losses from safety of CDs is much lower than likelihood of dramatic losses from equities. As I posted already, as the steps of my ladder mature on annual basis I will reinvest at higher rates when they will become available and they wi...
by patrick
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

if inflation runs rampant the CD rates will be going up, that's why I got the ladder and every year I will be renewing at a higher return therefore minimizing losses, don't confuse bond funds with CDs, bond funds although relatively safe do lose money, CDs never will lose their principal value, the...
by patrick
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

great depression was the closest drop to 90% I mention and noone was killing each other... people just lost lots of money and stayed in line is soup kitchens just to eat, I chose 90% loss as a hypothetical example that downside should be accounted for. And in 100% equity portfolio 90% drop means fr...
by patrick
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

It is all fine and dandy to make hypothetical statements because deep down there is a denial that 90% drop would ever materialize. Picture someone saving all their life and amass about 1M dollar portfolio just before they are ready to retire and be lets say 80% in stocks, 90% drop would mean that t...
by patrick
Thu Nov 20, 2014 2:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

I also agree with you that being too conservative may mean you won't win the game, but it definitely means you won't loose your shirt, and on the flip side, investing in stocks whatever the portion may be, does not guarantee that you will win the game either, quite to contrary, it is enough for one...
by patrick
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

ArthurO wrote:Real Estate is special because property values although can drop a lot will never go down to zero. land and buildings have inherent value in them.


Real estate investments often involve extensive leverage which means that your net value can go to zero or lower.
by patrick
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 116
Views: 11835

Re: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the di

Unfortunately the bad guys can still copy the number and use it to buy stuff over the web ...
by patrick
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 1107

Re: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?

So logistically, let's say I stop working today and I have this 200k in these accounts, what of it is mine and what is uncle sam's? It is unknown and unknowable. Among other things, how that money is taxed depends on where it falls in "the income stack" and that can change a bunch of time...
by patrick
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?
Replies: 53
Views: 4228

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

pkcrafter wrote:It is interesting to see that this is one of the very few discussions that acknowledges the possibility of such an event. What becomes of the 100%er in such an environment?

Paul


Now if we could additionally acknowledge that a long bear might be accompanied by inflation rather than deflation ...
by patrick
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 4107

Re: Company changing 401K provider. Time for in-service r/o?

The collective trust index funds likely have low costs -- I don't think there is a need to avoid moving to them.
by patrick
Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company changing 401K provider. Time for in-service r/o?
Replies: 17
Views: 1554

Re: For the next year or so, why shouldn't we be in all-cas

It's interesting to note that lots of people have criticized the bond predictions in the first post, but the stock predictions attract far less criticism.
by patrick
Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the next year or so, why shouldn't we be in all-cash?
Replies: 54
Views: 7519

Re: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area

I might have missed it but one thing that I have not seen mentioned was that with the current low interest rates and the way the inflation component of the IBond is taxed that you will likely lose purchasing power if you hold them for several decades. To me there are several niches where they might...
by patrick
Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area
Replies: 30
Views: 3168

Re: When do you buy a new home computer?

Oh yeah... do NOT upgrade os versions - I see people sludge a reasonable machine by having to have the latest os for no reason :-) Upgrading the OS may not be much of a problem for a relatively recent machine. Assuming that you are running Windows, the last time the system requirements really incre...
by patrick
Fri Nov 07, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do you buy a new home computer?
Replies: 52
Views: 4581

Re: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?

patrick: the losses are still small in the grand scheme of things and they start immediately recovering through higher yields; both things that can't be said about stocks. There was indeed a period of about a year when holding short term bonds paid off; add a year on either side and it's gone. The ...
by patrick
Thu Nov 06, 2014 1:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3752

Re: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?

1) From where I'm standing, the numbers look like -4.7% and +1%, respectively. Oops -- the starting date should have been May 2, as it had already fallen a bit by May 6. But after looking a bit more, I see there was an opportunity to lose even more. The loss is 7.4% if you bought on May 2, 2013 and...
by patrick
Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3752

Re: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?

Why do you say "threat of rising rates?" Didn't you notice that in 2013 the rate on the 10-year treasury rose from 1.5% to 3%--the right way to look at this is "1.5% rise" which is not huge but meaningful, even though it is tempting to say it doubled. What was the effect on your...
by patrick
Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3752

Re: iBonds at zero % fixed

Right now the marketable TIPS have positive real yield even at 5 years. This 0 percent yield means the I bonds no longer can beat TIPS on yield. EE bonds seem more interesting now as they still beat regular treasuries if held 20 years, though I am not really a fan of nominal fixed income in general.
by patrick
Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds at zero % fixed
Replies: 84
Views: 9342
Next

Return to advanced search