Search found 1011 matches

by patrick
Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't the 3 fund portfolio have TIPS?
Replies: 11
Views: 539

Re: Why doesn't the 3 fund portfolio have TIPS?

Historically short or intermediate treasuries have done ok inflation-wise over the long haul and so did ok for the long term buy and hold investor. Not necessarily. For instance, from the end of 1940 to the end of 1981, in real terms: 10-year treasuries lost 55% 3-month treasuries lost 34% Data is ...
by patrick
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1931
Views: 340183

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

protagonist wrote:If it makes you feel any better, the S+P is still up 11.4% since a year ago today.

It will take a large correction to make up for the gains of the past few years.


Indeed. It's still up 90% since this thread began! (including dividends, that is)
by patrick
Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest in oil thinking oil prices will go up
Replies: 15
Views: 2051

Re: How to invest in oil thinking oil prices will go up

I looked at USO USO exactly trails WTI. So looked at USO put options because call options were expensive I want to sell Put options for USO but then what if the WTI keeps dropping and buyer wants to sell back the option to me before the expiration? Then I will be toast So is there a European style ...
by patrick
Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 4334

Re: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?

I see what you mean, compared to all those factors 9 points is not much. But JoMoney says it's closer to a 54 point drag. That's 6x higher than the spread in costs alone. At that much drag, I am seriously reconsidering my international stake. I'm already about to pull VSS because I think 19 bp is t...
by patrick
Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestions for picking 401k funds from a bad plan
Replies: 34
Views: 1630

Re: Suggestions for picking 401k funds from a bad plan

Let me be the first to say the expense ration on the MMF is outrageous. I would bet the amount they take as a fee is more then 75% of the gross yield on the fund at today's interest rates. OUCH, OUCH, OUCH. At today's interest rates the 0.65% expense ratio looks like more than 100% of the gross yie...
by patrick
Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 4334

Re: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?

The arguments for underweighting non-US stocks seem rather weak (though not completely negated) to me for these reasons: 1) 9 basis points is not very much. 2) The extra foreign taxes can be regained by a tax credit if you are investing in a taxable account. 3) Movements in exchange rates should be ...
by patrick
Sat Aug 15, 2015 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse ETFs
Replies: 44
Views: 2520

Re: Inverse ETFs

Now, the relevant dictionary definition of to monitor is "To keep close watch over." Obviously, simply "monitoring" your exposure to the inverse ETF does nothing at all. It's a euphemism. "Monitoring" makes no sense unless you plan to take action based on your "mo...
by patrick
Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not diversify beyond the Three Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 78
Views: 7844

Re: Why not diversify beyond the Three Fund Portfolio?

Based on the above, it seems to me that, contrary to its stated goal, the Three Fund Portfolio de facto takes a strong position in favor of developed market, especially US, public equity against all other sectors of the world economy. What is the case against trying to diversify more broadly? Each ...
by patrick
Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 3860

Re: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond

VG "Total Stock" holds over 99% of available market cap. Arguments over whether or not that is "total" are very academic. In contrast, "Total Bond" does exclude very significant parts of the bond market. But, if you want to get closer to holding the total US taxable ma...
by patrick
Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4829

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

galeno wrote:I advise against slice and dice because it is an attempt to outsmart the market which adds unneeded complexity to your strategy.

Unneeded complexity adds temptation to tweak the portfolio.


Nearly all of us try to outsmart the market by having less than market weight in foreign bonds.
by patrick
Sat Jul 04, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Funds that exclude one country
Replies: 27
Views: 1369

Re: Funds that exclude one country

To construct a portfolio excluding 1 or a few countries, you'd have to use a broad index fund for as much of the globe as you can excluding the general undesired area of consideration. Then add in individual funds for the individual countries of the general area in question, to the extent that indi...
by patrick
Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Global bond fund or Fidelity funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 385

Re: 401K Global bond fund or Fidelity funds?

The lack of dividends probably is no problem. Most likely that simply means that the money that would be a dividend stays in the fund instead of being distributed to you (where it would just be reinvested to get more shares of the fund anyway) so you get the same amount of returns as if it did pay d...
by patrick
Wed Jul 01, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to use SSD computer
Replies: 24
Views: 2618

Re: How to use SSD computer

I can't seem to remember ever losing data on HD (except when I was learning DOS and did fdisk on my drive), am I just lucky? That includes 5 1/4" floppy all the way to modern SSD. I've even connected an old 300 MB HD a few weeks ago and it still had data on it from 15 years ago. Back-up on a s...
by patrick
Wed Jul 01, 2015 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to use SSD computer
Replies: 24
Views: 2618

Re: How to use SSD computer

Thanks all for the comments. The main issue I am worried about with the SSD drive is bit rot of the whole drive due to excessive writing of small files such as Xcel and a few songs and some pictures as they are accumulated. I read that using SSD as a disk is the wrong way to go and instead should o...
by patrick
Thu Jun 18, 2015 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
Replies: 14
Views: 1471

Re: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Since WW1 years there's been a increased tendency towards just inflation and a progressive breaking away from a gold-standard. And as hard currency has been devalued so precious metals have risen in price. Something broadly like 5%/year average inflation over the last 100 years, with precious metal...
by patrick
Wed Jun 17, 2015 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 1754

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

Understanding the math may help. (it helped me) If, over the course of a year Nat Gas has 120 days up one percent and 120 days down one percent, what do you think will happen to the daily tripled levered etf? a) break even b) lose about 5 percent c) lose over ten percent The answer is c. In Excel, ...
by patrick
Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SSD + HDD good option for upgrading desktop PC?
Replies: 47
Views: 4491

Re: SSD + HDD good option for upgrading desktop PC?

The only other thing I'd change on your machine is to potentially use a wired internet connection, rather than wireless, if your internet connection speed is above about 5mbps. Surely there's almost no chance a wireless connection is going be the bottleneck, rather than the broadband connection? (I...
by patrick
Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cable Cord cutting.. alternatives/ideas? Speed Choices?
Replies: 30
Views: 3001

Re: Cable Cord cutting.. alternatives/ideas? Speed Choices?

I'm with Brighthouse Cable. It turns out AT&T Uverse does have some options in the area now, but they are front loaded with a bunch of installation charges/fees. They don't publish their upstream speeds and I've read online that they are quite slow for what you pay. I'm researching this a bit f...
by patrick
Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cable Cord cutting.. alternatives/ideas? Speed Choices?
Replies: 30
Views: 3001

Re: Cable Cord cutting.. alternatives/ideas? Speed Choices?

If you have 60GB of pictures and a 1Mbps upload link it will take (under optimal conditions) ~5.98 days. We'll call it 6-7 days. A 5Mbps is 5x as fast, so it'll be close to 1.5 days, but that is assuming that the service (google drive, icloud, etc...) allows you to run at 5Mbps upload for long peri...
by patrick
Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Funds Yielding 6+%
Replies: 30
Views: 2522

Re: TIPS Funds Yielding 6+%

Mutual funds using (or at least being allowed to use) derivatives is quite normal. Can you guess which fund's prospectus I cut and pasted the following from? To help stay fully invested and to reduce transaction costs, the Fund may invest, to a limited extent, in derivatives, including stock futures...
by patrick
Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are there any merchants that accept only Amex?
Replies: 25
Views: 2428

Re: Are there any merchants that accept only Amex?

I have never actually encountered one.
by patrick
Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keeping cash in a brokerage account. Safe?
Replies: 20
Views: 1712

Re: Keeping cash in a brokerage account. Safe?

Over the long term it is not safe from inflation.
by patrick
Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion Short-Term Bond ETF (e.g. GSY) as a CASH/CD alternative
Replies: 6
Views: 876

Re: Opinion Short-Term Bond ETF (e.g. GSY) as a CASH/CD alternative

insured bank products as a CD? The very best out there is 1.00%. More common 0.5%. 1.00% is not the very best you can get with a CD. A quick look on bankrate.com finds 1.25% on 1-year CDs and 2.25% on 5-year CDs. For short-term bonds, Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH) invests in a broad...
by patrick
Sat Jun 06, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion Short-Term Bond ETF (e.g. GSY) as a CASH/CD alternative
Replies: 6
Views: 876

Re: Opinion Short-Term Bond ETF (e.g. GSY) as a CASH/CD alternative

Investment grade short term bonds currently have extremely low yields. You can often get similar or better yields in insured bank products. The ETF you mention has higher yield than most ultra short bonds, but it gets this yield by investing in junk bonds which have higher risk.
by patrick
Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convertible Bonds and Preferred Stock. Why don't we invest in them?
Replies: 16
Views: 1349

Re: Convertible Bonds and Preferred Stock. Why don't we invest in them?

According to https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II853.pdf the total market cap of convertibles is quite small compared to the overall size of bonds in general. If the plan is to include them at market weight, they'd be such a small portion of your portfolio that it's probably not worth the troubl...
by patrick
Wed Jun 03, 2015 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401/403/457 contribution limits automatically enforced?
Replies: 4
Views: 543

Re: 401/403/457 contribution limits automatically enforced?

Note that if you have multiple accounts the limits can apply to the total, not per account. All 401k and 403b accounts combined cannot have contributions over the limit. 457s are counted seperately from the 401ks and 403bs, but the 457 contributions are added to each other and all your 457 accounts ...
by patrick
Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuities the Fixed Index Annuity FIA
Replies: 30
Views: 2105

Re: Annuities the Fixed Index Annuity FIA

So I just priced a SPIA with USAA. $3,000 / month for my life and my wife's with survivor rights (20 year guarantee). I'm 49, she's 45. They want $858,629. Seems the SPIA is spinning off 4.2% / year guaranteed for life. 3% rule would indicate I need $1,200,000 to retire right now on $36,000 / month...
by patrick
Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuities the Fixed Index Annuity FIA
Replies: 30
Views: 2105

Re: Annuities the Fixed Index Annuity FIA

@Patrick re: bro. At his level, his portfolio is monitored and the stock options are part of his compensation. Again at the time, Early 2008, he could have changed some of his deferred portfolio but again understand the time where his tax level is high, it would behove him to delay taking gains unt...
by patrick
Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuities the Fixed Index Annuity FIA
Replies: 30
Views: 2105

Re: Annuities the Fixed Index Annuity FIA

About my older bro: He is pretty "conservative' compared to me. It's is his occupation to be careful (risk management). EARLY 2008, he had MANY times his minimal retirement needs. Me, we were still short of our needs but within sight of the goal line. In his Then financial status (very good) h...
by patrick
Sat May 30, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 32
Views: 3120

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

The 2% yield on bonds is indeed disastrously low. But the 1% on the savings account is even worse! Right, but why take the risk of bonds for so little extra yield? Would you say the same thing if bond yielding 5% and the savings account yielded 4%? Either way, note that the risk isn't really that m...
by patrick
Fri May 29, 2015 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should only those with limited resources use LMP
Replies: 7
Views: 910

Re: Should only those with limited resources use LMP

If your resources are significantly limited then you won't be able to afford a liability matching portfolio unless you keep the liabilities (which are really better referred to as planned future expenditures) very low. This is the problem with the whole need/ability to take risk framework -- those w...
by patrick
Fri May 29, 2015 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 32
Views: 3120

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

The 2% yield on bonds is indeed disastrously low. But the 1% on the savings account is even worse!
by patrick
Thu May 28, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"
Replies: 61
Views: 5749

Re: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"

It's not completely clear what should be consider a niche investment, nor whether that designation means they should be left out of our portfolios. For example: Foreign developed-market bonds - As the article notes, these are a huge portion of all investable financial assets, so in that sense they a...
by patrick
Thu May 28, 2015 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SSD + HDD good option for upgrading desktop PC?
Replies: 47
Views: 4491

Re: SSD + HDD good option for upgrading desktop PC?

Adding an SSD definitely helps with startup times. However, I have some other ideas that may be worth considering: The total time of 3:40 seems rather bad even using HDD. Something else may be going wrong such as one of the programs you load at startup or one of your web browser plugins is severely ...
by patrick
Wed May 27, 2015 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: pension vs variable annuity
Replies: 10
Views: 971

Re: pension vs variable annuity

If your company turns over your pension to an insurance company, that means they pay the insurance company a lump sum, and then the insurance company will make the monthly pension payments to you. These are the same payments the company sponsoring the pension would otherwise have to pay out directly...
by patrick
Wed May 27, 2015 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE Emerging Markets Index adds China A shares
Replies: 17
Views: 2086

Re: FTSE Emerging Markets Index adds China A shares

But it comes down to judgments, and for example only pretty recently FTSE moved offshore incorporated (ie not HK or Mainland but Cayman's etc) Mainland controlled companies from 'HK' to 'China' category. This guide may help. http://www.etf.com/docs/022013_IU_GuideToChineseShare.pdf . Thank you for ...
by patrick
Sat May 23, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bond ETFs a bad idea?
Replies: 43
Views: 3395

Re: Are Bond ETFs a bad idea?

Many would suggest that high yield and international bonds are asset classes that should be avoided altogether. If you are going to invest in them for the long term, I don't think ETFs are all that bad. For a short-term investor, the large bid/ask spreads of some of the ETFs would be a significant p...
by patrick
Sat May 23, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most effective wifi upgrade for range/speed?
Replies: 27
Views: 2640

Re: Most effective wifi upgrade for range/speed?

If you haven't tried it already, you might be able to improve the situation by moving or reorienting the base station antennas or selecting a different channel. I presume you already have at least 802.11n on the router. If so you could try the low-cost option of just using an 802.11n USB adapter on ...
by patrick
Sat May 23, 2015 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market bond funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1620

Re: Emerging market bond funds

[quote="MN Finance"]I dont know why you are comparing EM debt with the us stock market. Thats intersting but doesnt imply any ... anything. EM debt is not a free lunch. You are gaining systemic risk in EM markets. You are better off with a position in EM stocks and high quality short term ...
by patrick
Sat May 23, 2015 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3766

Re: Why not overweight international?

Sure, but--any number of asset classes are touted as "inflation hedges." In fact, almost every asset sorta-kinda has a tendency in the sufficiently-long-run to hold real purchasing power EXCEPT for local currency and nominal bonds. The claims for all of them are weak. And all of them are ...
by patrick
Sat May 23, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3766

Re: Why not overweight international?

While certainly not all encompassing, there's plenty of quick lists of the risks: https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p113.pdf?2210091577 U.S. investors who invest abroad will encounter risks not typically associated with U.S. companies because foreign stock and bond markets operate differently f...
by patrick
Sat May 23, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3766

Re: Why not overweight international?

... is this partial currency exposure a serious enough risk to outweigh the reasons given in favor of overweighting foreign stocks? I've yet to see any persuasive reason to except the additioanl risks and expenses holding an international portfolio entails for a U.S. investor. There's lots of theor...
by patrick
Sat May 23, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market bond funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1620

Re: Emerging market bond funds

Forget the hyperbole. How much did it outperform it's benchmark by? Does that I% or so performance include what you will net, after all fees and taxes? Also consider that to do you any good it has to out perform the correct index, after fees and taxes, in the future. so, if the manager is realpy on...
by patrick
Fri May 22, 2015 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3766

Re: Why not overweight international?

Currency risk. The "bias" is built into our personal currency transactions. For a U.S. investor, it makes dollar-denominated investments fundamentally different from baht-denominated investments. Currency fluctuations are an additional layer of uncertainty that is independent of the busin...
by patrick
Fri May 15, 2015 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: passport card faster than passport?
Replies: 34
Views: 3041

Re: passport card faster than passport?

I sent in my passport for non-expedited renewal in the middle of March, getting both the book and card. I got back the new passport book in slightly less than 4 weeks including mailing time. The passport card (sent by regular mail) came a couple of days later than the passport book (sent by priority...
by patrick
Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio
Replies: 55
Views: 3295

Re: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio

My only international fund is Vanguard Total International so I am at market weight ... whatever that is ...
by patrick
Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What were your biggest financial emergencies?
Replies: 45
Views: 7380

Re: What were your biggest financial emergencies?

If an emergency means a large unexpected expense that must be paid in cash, I have never had an emergency. Even if you include a checking account is cash, the only large payments I have to make with cash are rent and health insurance, neither of which is unexpected. Every other significant expense, ...
by patrick
Thu Apr 16, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stock?
Replies: 19
Views: 3169

Re: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stoc

Vanguard Total International uses the FTSE Global All Cap ex US index, which includes both developed and emerging markets but not frontier markets. Their classification is described here: http://www.ftse.com/products/indices/country-classification The highest income country on the planet, Qatar, is ...
by patrick
Sun Apr 12, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: do you own individual international stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 1892

Re: Poll: do you own individual international stocks?

stlutz wrote:The Fidelity commissions are in local currency. So 3000 yen not dollars.


Even so it still comes out to 25 dollars, a fairly high commission.

I'll also note that many foreign stocks can be purchased on US exchanges for the same commissions (as low or high as they may be) as US stocks.
by patrick
Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has Anyone had a Credit Card Cancelled for not Using It
Replies: 51
Views: 4630

Re: Has Anyone had a Credit Card Cancelled for not Using It

It's happened to me several times. If I recall correctly, Target, First National Omaha, US Bank, Citi, HSBC, and WaMu all cancelled my cards at various points over the years, in some cases without notice and usually after more than a year of inactivity. It's not really a problem since I still have o...

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