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Re: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?

I don't have any severe violations like individual stocks, high cost active funds, or putting everything in the latest hot sector. However, I do all of the following which are arguably deviations from standard boglehead practice, whatever that is: 1) I have one active fund, though it is low cost: Va...
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?
Replies: 25
Views: 389

Re: Buying more when markets are down

Ah yes, the brave talk you hear when the market is up! It makes me smile. Normally from the young bucks with few posts. The thing is the brave talk starts getting less and less the more the market drops. I suggest sticking with your plan. If that is rebalance bands or something else you will be doi...
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying more when markets are down
Replies: 40
Views: 1614

Re: Lower risk & return if equity allocation is below 30-40%

Also for the poster above just because you liability match bonds to your needs does NOT mean it does not have volatility. Bonds are repriced continuously. Just because you don't peek at the value before they are needed does not make them less volatile. Otherwise I could say the same thing about sto...
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower risk & return if equity allocation is below 30-40%?
Replies: 12
Views: 629

Re: R u selling PIMCO bond fund

I sold it long ago, but did so in order to move to lower cost funds rather than because of any specific person there.
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: R u selling PIMCO bond fund
Replies: 18
Views: 1580

Re: Emergency room consent

We do as best as we can to keep patients from getting a surprise $50,000 hospital bill for being admitted. However, ultimately, it's not our responsibility. Just like it's not Best Buy's responsibility to ensure you are paying the lowest price for your laptop. Best Buy does, however, do something r...
by patrick
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency room consent
Replies: 61
Views: 3090

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

John - you can't get more certainty than CD's. What makes you think stocks or bonds offer more certainty. During periods of high inflation, equities and bonds do poorly. The 11 years from 1970 to 1981 was one of the worst inflationary periods ever seen, but during that period CD's vastly outperform...
by patrick
Sun Sep 28, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 4961

Re: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" ser

In many cases the stringent taxi regulations only apply for cabs that can be hailed from the street. This is the case in New York City, for example. NYC does not require million dollar taxi medallions to run a for hire car service that is called by phone instead of being hailed from the street, thou...
by patrick
Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" service
Replies: 51
Views: 3135

Re: Risk and the Trinity Study

The Trinity Study may have weighed all market conditions based on history, but it only looked at 70 years of history for one country. I wonder what the results would look like for the 1926-1995 period for Germany, Italy or Japan? I know, I know the U.S. Is different , but....... Among other things,...
by patrick
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and the Trinity Study
Replies: 33
Views: 1770

Re: External backup drives - Seagate vs Western Digital

I think all major drive manufacturers have multiple levels of quality. You need to pay extra to get more reliability. I think consumer grade drives are prone to early failure and that's why you see so many negative reviews on places like Amazon. I wouldn't be surprised if 99% of the hard drives sol...
by patrick
Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: External backup drives - Seagate vs Western Digital
Replies: 43
Views: 2728

Re: Roth IRA vs Mutual Fund. Inexperienced Investor

Even if you don't file a tax return, the limits still apply. Note that your wages still get reported to the IRS so they might notice if you contribute more than that. Note also that, even if you are not required to file a tax return, it might be beneficial to do so in order to get a tax refund.
by patrick
Mon Sep 15, 2014 2:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA vs Mutual Fund. Inexperienced Investor
Replies: 11
Views: 629

Re: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio

The Fulminate Five, for those who really believe in the correlation benefits of different highly volatile assets: 20% VGSLX Vanguard REIT Index Fund (Admiral, of course!) 20% RZV Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value 20% SFILX Schwab Fundamental International Small Company Index 20% DGS WisdomT...
by patrick
Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Hot-Rod Portfolio
Replies: 55
Views: 4250

5-year TIPS real yield goes positive!

I just noticed that, for the first time in months, the real yield on the 5-year TIPS has now gone positive. All the way up to 0.05 percent. Perhaps it's time to quit buying those I bonds?

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... =realyield
by patrick
Tue Sep 09, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year TIPS real yield goes positive!
Replies: 6
Views: 1112

Re: Socially Irresponsible Fund

With an expense ratio of 1.47% ... consider your responsibility to yourself before buying!
by patrick
Tue Sep 09, 2014 12:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Irresponsible Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1482

Re: Are there any real total bond funds?

The prospectus is reserving to the fund manager the right to do that which is allowed under US legislation - to put up to 20% in anything not otherwise specified. You'd be hard pressed to find a bond, or stock, or for that matter any, mutual fund or ETF, index or otherwise, where the prospectus doe...
by patrick
Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there any real total bond funds?
Replies: 65
Views: 2953

Re: Bond Funds and Interest Rates Question

If you are planning to hold the fund for longer than its duration, you should ask how much you will gain from an interest rate increase, not how much you will lose.
by patrick
Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bond Funds and Interest Rates Question
Replies: 17
Views: 1284

Re: Why invest in bonds?

Just because the last stock market crash recovered quickly is no guarantee that the next one will. Unfortunately, bonds don't really guarantee safety either. Interest rate increases aren't the real problem since. for long term investors, you'll get back more money due to the higher coupon payments. ...
by patrick
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6320

Re: If my 70/30 Stock/Bond portfolio matched the S&P500 gain

does that mean I'm getting less risk for free? It did what it did, but the future may be different. Over the past 15 year period, 100% in a short-term bond fund had the same return as 100% in S&P500... but that's a period dependent event, and very sensitive to how you choose your start/end time...
by patrick
Sun Aug 24, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If my 70/30 Stock/Bond portfolio matched the S&P500 gains
Replies: 7
Views: 1714

Re: Dell computer warranty upgrades

A low-end desktop computer isn't likely to be worth very much after you've been using it for 3 to 5 years. The $95 warranty cost is probably a very large fraction of what value the computer will have left when it takes effect.
by patrick
Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dell computer warranty upgrades
Replies: 5
Views: 347

Re: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?

The actual cost of a defined benefit plan is always going to be unknown. The amount of money that actually must go in will depend on how the plan investments perform. For corporate (not government) plans the standard rule is based on bond yields so that more money has to be in the plan for it to be ...
by patrick
Mon Aug 18, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?
Replies: 36
Views: 1841

Re: Mac Airbook

The Windows version of Safari is not being updated any more -- I wouldn't expect it to match the Mac Safari.
by patrick
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mac Airbook
Replies: 38
Views: 3241

Re: Mac Airbook

In general it should be possible to open Word/Excel documents using the usual Mac software, though for some very complex/bizarre documents there may be problems. If you want to check this in advance, you can install LibreOffice or AbiWord/Gnumeric, all of which are free, on your PC now to see how we...
by patrick
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mac Airbook
Replies: 38
Views: 3241

Re: Too Good to be True? Universal Life

The insurance policy would not normally be free. There should at least be a cost of insurnce charge which could be higher than the price of purchasing insurance elsewhere.
by patrick
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too Good to be True? Universal Life
Replies: 11
Views: 1128

Re: Two factor identification and your password safe

It is possible that your password could be cracked more easily than indicated on that site. For example, if your password is qwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnm it will be cracked very quickly even though 26 random lowercase letters would indeed be virtually uncrackable. Beyond that, there are other problems...
by patrick
Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Two factor identification and your password safe
Replies: 31
Views: 2065

Re: Need for International Investing ?

If needing it means that disaster is likely without it, then (if you are a US investor) you don't need international investing. You will probably come out OK if you have only US investments. But by that definition, you don't need US investments either. You will probably come out OK with non-US inves...
by patrick
Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 56
Views: 2999

Re: More on Computer Security

Holding computers for ransom first happened over 20 years ago -- see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS_(trojan_horse)
by patrick
Sun Aug 10, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: More on Computer Security
Replies: 17
Views: 1627

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Ramsey has been around a long time. There ought to be quite a cohort of bitter and disillusioned broke people to hear from by now. It is not "preposterous" to insist upon a balance of evidence. We have positive affirmations of great actual good, from your fellow Bogleheads no less; and di...
by patrick
Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 22846

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Is anyone aware of actual people who have followed chameleon's scenario and been done to their doom? Sure it could happen that way - but did it? I would actually like to know. In other words, you admit that Ramsey's advice is wrong, but defend him by saying that no one has a actually followed his w...
by patrick
Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 22846

Re: It won't matter if your password gets stolen

What's the limitation of 2 factor authentication (password + single use key on phone/device)? Seems plenty safe to me for all practical purposes. All the bad guys have to do is take over whatever machine you access the supposedly secure service from. Then they just wait for you to log in (entering ...
by patrick
Sat Aug 09, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: It won't matter if your password gets stolen
Replies: 20
Views: 2408

Re: Intel Core processors - i3 2014 vs older i3 or other?

To see some hard numbers on performance look at http://www.cpubenchmark.net/high_end_cpus.html which has a huge list of CPUs. Note also that in many cases, the CPU is not the main factor determining the computer's performance, and furthermore many tasks won't really use all the cores so the single c...
by patrick
Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Intel Core processors - i3 2014 vs older i3 or other?
Replies: 16
Views: 1449

Re: Recent Barron's Article on Risks of ETFs

1) The arbitrage isn't free but shouldn't cost much in ordinary circumstances. After all, if one AP is offering to sell a basket for 1% more than it costs to create it, another AP can come in and offer for 0.5% more than it costs to create it and still make a profit. This is not hidden since it is r...
by patrick
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent Barron's Article on Risks of ETFs
Replies: 10
Views: 1111

Re: Using a credit card to buy/sell bitcoin, Make $ volatili

Although one of the articles describes this as a fiasco it is not that different from trading stocks. When you trade stocks you need to know the buy and sell price and pay taxes on the gains, just like with bitcoins. Beyond the taxes on bitcoin gains, note there may be additional regulatory requirem...
by patrick
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using a credit card to buy/sell bitcoin, Make $ volatility
Replies: 7
Views: 757

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Note that you can't necessarily seek safety from this possibility in bonds. US bonds, for instance, have had more than 40 year periods of negative returns.
by patrick
Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 43
Views: 4322

Re: Is tax deferment overvalued?

It is not a question of ordinary income taxes versus capital gains taxes. It is a question of ordinary income taxes only (if using the traditional IRA/401K) versus ordinary income taxes PLUS capital gains taxes (when using a taxable account you pay ordinary income tax when you receive the income, th...
by patrick
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is tax deferment overvalued?
Replies: 20
Views: 2500

Re: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis

If I could summarize the majority of the comments on this (and every other board) with regard to the core Merton concept, that retirement investing should be about minimizing the risk of a shortfall, as opposed to building the biggest nest egg, it comes down to this: "Everything I've read says...
by patrick
Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis
Replies: 188
Views: 17800

Re: Transplant hard drive from old to a new laptop?

Here is a tutorial for preparing a Windows 7 installation to run on different hardware: http://www.sevenforums.com/tutorials/135077-windows-7-installation-transfer-new-computer.html I think it should be possible (except perhaps if you are getting an ultra-thin laptop) to move the hard disk, since th...
by patrick
Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Transplant hard drive from old to a new laptop?
Replies: 16
Views: 732

Re: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis

Thirty years ago, the evidence that stocks outperformed bonds was even weaker than it is today. It was not something one would easily have predicted over bond performance at that time, as you seem to believe. I'm sure you are aware of Robert Shiller's work (Irrational Exuberance), but to reiterate,...
by patrick
Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis
Replies: 188
Views: 17800

Re: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis

Did is surprise you to discover that there had been a 30 year bull market in Treasury bonds only after it was over? Did you even know it was going on? My guess is not, because Wall St. had no interest in telling anybody this, because it couldn't get rich telling people to buy T-bonds through Treasu...
by patrick
Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis
Replies: 188
Views: 17800

Re: Buy A New Windows Computer Now?

Another factor to consider. A desktop running 24/7 uses a lot of electricity. I have a Kill-O-Watt and was shocked at how much electricity a middle powered desktop uses. I had a Windows Home Server running 24/7 to share media. That thing used ~$20 of electricity/month. A laptop that you allow to &q...
by patrick
Wed Jun 25, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy A New Windows Computer Now?
Replies: 53
Views: 3037

Re: World Market Cap Representation

For many companies, especially in emerging markets, many of the shares in the hands of large strategic shareholders such as the government or company founders. The Vanguard fund uses a float-adjusted index, which means that the portion of market cap held by the strategic shareholders are not counted...
by patrick
Sun Jun 22, 2014 1:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: World Market Cap Representation
Replies: 4
Views: 561

Re: Help with fees assessment on 403B

The listed total operating expenses should be the total fee (except that, like everywhere else, it doesn't included trading costs inside the fund). The funds you lists are regular mutual funds so you can look up the returns of the funds themselves and compare that with compare your return inside the...
by patrick
Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with fees assessment on 403B
Replies: 3
Views: 250

Re: Should international travel impact your investments?

Dale_G wrote:I hold the market weight in equities in developed and emerging markets, but almost nothing in frontier markets.


For frontier markets, "almost nothing" is the market weight.
by patrick
Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should international travel impact your investments?
Replies: 30
Views: 1902

Re: Would any number make you change your asset allocation?

I don't understand posters who must stay the course regardless of any change in market conditions. Its like not opening an umbrella when the rain and lightning starts because you know the sun will come out eventually. The difference, of course, is that most of us are able to tell whether there is r...
by patrick
Sat Jun 14, 2014 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would any number make you change your asset allocation?
Replies: 58
Views: 3520

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

I used the returns, after fees, of real Vanguard funds, and I adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U. What's wrong with that? These returns certainly can't be from real Vanguard index funds, since there are no index funds that go all the way back to 1971. If you're willing to use something other th...
by patrick
Sat Jun 14, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 3336

Re: Is your computer protected?

Thanks to the OP. I discovered and removed a Java Exploit. I was using Microsoft Security Essentials. I was doing weekly full scans, but recently changed to quick scans because I was worried about wear and tear on my HD. That may be why it was not caught. The tool I downloaded from Microsoft found ...
by patrick
Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is your computer protected?
Replies: 39
Views: 4421

Re: Why have more than 70% stocks?

The reason for having more than 70% stocks is that you don't trust the chart. The historical equity premium has been much higher than 1.5% both in the US and abroad. More importantly, the worst case for fixed income is much worse than shown in the chart! If bills actually means 3-month treasury bill...
by patrick
Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more than 70% stocks?
Replies: 12
Views: 1499

Re: TIPS, debt as inflation hedge, and international TIPS.

Lending money at a lower interest rate while simultaneously borrowing at a higher rate is indeed usually harmful. But with a mortgage there are some special issues to consider: First, the matter of taxes. Since there is a tax deduction on mortgage interest, the cost of the interest may be less than ...
by patrick
Mon Jun 09, 2014 1:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS, debt as inflation hedge, and international TIPS.
Replies: 5
Views: 403

Re: Laptop (Win7 Pro) Remote Lock & Wipe

If you want to protect confidential data, encryption is probably better than remote wiping. The wipe only works after realize what happened and the wipe command gets through. Unlike a phone, there's a good chance the laptop won't be connected to the network continuously, so you may have to wait a lo...
by patrick
Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop (Win7 Pro) Remote Lock & Wipe
Replies: 15
Views: 1350

Re: Gold: old vs new theories

As a wild guess I'll say performance chasing. The huge gold price increases during the 1970s made gold popular, so it was recommended in the 1980s magazines. After gold went down for many years it became less popular and so would have eventually been taken out. Of course, now that everyone knows abo...
by patrick
Fri May 30, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold: old vs new theories
Replies: 5
Views: 771

Re: Bitcoins as investment

I'm telling you so now and I'm saying "I told you so" in advance to get it out of the way. Almost up to $600 now. Recommended: http://www.coindesk.com/7-things-every-misinformed-person-says-bitcoin/ Normally saying "I toldo you so" means that you were pproven right and others we...
by patrick
Fri May 30, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bitcoins as investment
Replies: 210
Views: 14081

Re: TrueCrypt possibly compromised/unsafe to use.

I suppose the Lavabit scenario would make sense. Would TrueCrypt's founders really just hand over the cryptographic key? It would make sense to shut it down if it really got forced to, perhaps they don't have a legal defense fund. Such a thing shouldn't happen. There's no reason they would need to ...
by patrick
Wed May 28, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TrueCrypt possibly compromised/unsafe to use.
Replies: 61
Views: 6087
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