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Re: how to make money like a billionaire

It is all fine and dandy to make hypothetical statements because deep down there is a denial that 90% drop would ever materialize. Picture someone saving all their life and amass about 1M dollar portfolio just before they are ready to retire and be lets say 80% in stocks, 90% drop would mean that t...
by patrick
Thu Nov 20, 2014 2:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 75
Views: 5609

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

I also agree with you that being too conservative may mean you won't win the game, but it definitely means you won't loose your shirt, and on the flip side, investing in stocks whatever the portion may be, does not guarantee that you will win the game either, quite to contrary, it is enough for one...
by patrick
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 75
Views: 5609

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

ArthurO wrote:Real Estate is special because property values although can drop a lot will never go down to zero. land and buildings have inherent value in them.


Real estate investments often involve extensive leverage which means that your net value can go to zero or lower.
by patrick
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 75
Views: 5609

Re: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the di

Unfortunately the bad guys can still copy the number and use it to buy stuff over the web ...
by patrick
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 930

Re: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?

So logistically, let's say I stop working today and I have this 200k in these accounts, what of it is mine and what is uncle sam's? It is unknown and unknowable. Among other things, how that money is taxed depends on where it falls in "the income stack" and that can change a bunch of time...
by patrick
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?
Replies: 53
Views: 3415

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

pkcrafter wrote:It is interesting to see that this is one of the very few discussions that acknowledges the possibility of such an event. What becomes of the 100%er in such an environment?

Paul


Now if we could additionally acknowledge that a long bear might be accompanied by inflation rather than deflation ...
by patrick
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 3518

Re: Company changing 401K provider. Time for in-service r/o?

The collective trust index funds likely have low costs -- I don't think there is a need to avoid moving to them.
by patrick
Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company changing 401K provider. Time for in-service r/o?
Replies: 17
Views: 1300

Re: For the next year or so, why shouldn't we be in all-cas

It's interesting to note that lots of people have criticized the bond predictions in the first post, but the stock predictions attract far less criticism.
by patrick
Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the next year or so, why shouldn't we be in all-cash?
Replies: 54
Views: 6627

Re: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area

I might have missed it but one thing that I have not seen mentioned was that with the current low interest rates and the way the inflation component of the IBond is taxed that you will likely lose purchasing power if you hold them for several decades. To me there are several niches where they might...
by patrick
Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area
Replies: 30
Views: 2660

Re: When do you buy a new home computer?

Oh yeah... do NOT upgrade os versions - I see people sludge a reasonable machine by having to have the latest os for no reason :-) Upgrading the OS may not be much of a problem for a relatively recent machine. Assuming that you are running Windows, the last time the system requirements really incre...
by patrick
Fri Nov 07, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do you buy a new home computer?
Replies: 52
Views: 3781

Re: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?

patrick: the losses are still small in the grand scheme of things and they start immediately recovering through higher yields; both things that can't be said about stocks. There was indeed a period of about a year when holding short term bonds paid off; add a year on either side and it's gone. The ...
by patrick
Thu Nov 06, 2014 1:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3683

Re: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?

1) From where I'm standing, the numbers look like -4.7% and +1%, respectively. Oops -- the starting date should have been May 2, as it had already fallen a bit by May 6. But after looking a bit more, I see there was an opportunity to lose even more. The loss is 7.4% if you bought on May 2, 2013 and...
by patrick
Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3683

Re: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?

Why do you say "threat of rising rates?" Didn't you notice that in 2013 the rate on the 10-year treasury rose from 1.5% to 3%--the right way to look at this is "1.5% rise" which is not huge but meaningful, even though it is tempting to say it doubled. What was the effect on your...
by patrick
Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay in intermediate term bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3683

Re: iBonds at zero % fixed

Right now the marketable TIPS have positive real yield even at 5 years. This 0 percent yield means the I bonds no longer can beat TIPS on yield. EE bonds seem more interesting now as they still beat regular treasuries if held 20 years, though I am not really a fan of nominal fixed income in general.
by patrick
Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds at zero % fixed
Replies: 84
Views: 8829

Re: Oil and or Metals?

...I am thinking of taking a tiny percent of my portfolio in assets that do not trade with stocks and bonds. Mainly metals and oil via 2 vanguard sector funds... (Puzzled) What funds are those? And by "metals" do you mean "metals," or "precious metals?" As far as I kno...
by patrick
Wed Nov 05, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil and or Metals?
Replies: 19
Views: 1165

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

rolling 30 years returns of 60/40 split stock/bond portfolio shows that it is not uncommon to have only 1% real return with high volatility, and CDs also show sometimes 1% real return which is guaranteed. Of course if one gets lucky (yes I said LUCKY) and markets do well over 30 years, the returns ...
by patrick
Mon Nov 03, 2014 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2178

Re: BND or a CD

I think that you and mpt follower are completely missing my point. So, let me try to make it clearer: ⋅  As an investor, my horizon is not exactly 10 years from now. ⋅  I do not hold fixed income in a bucket; I use my fixed income in a buy/hold/ rebalance mixed portfolio of stoc...
by patrick
Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9434

Re: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds

US Treasuries are in my opinion a screaming, pound-the-table buy relative to any Euro zone sovereign bonds at present. German ten year bonds are yielding 1.7% less than 10 year Treasuries, which is more than 3 times the German bonds yield (less than 0.5%). As for the currency issue, most expect tha...
by patrick
Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2253

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

"Considering the S&P 500 actually gained 138% over the past 13 years, while total bond market only gained 84%, along with the fact that the buy-and-hold crowd never claimed that 13 years of stock underperformance was impossible anyway, perhaps it is a different crowd which ought to begin t...
by patrick
Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 7970

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

I'm anything but a gold bug you guys, but considering gold's performance (cited above) as well as the robust performance of the Permanent Portfolio (beating the S&P 500 since 1972 with far less volatility and infinitely lower drawdowns during stock market crashes) I think Bogle and Buffett have...
by patrick
Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 7970

Re: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformat

A long time ago I picked up a bit of trivia about how banks and security firms value their assets--- Mark to Market. But Insurance companies argued that their clients and insurance assets are different because in order to determine risk you have to look and hold long term. --- Life and Annuity comp...
by patrick
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1802

Re: BND or a CD

Help me understand: Assume I purchase shares of BND today when the SEC yield is 2% and the duration is 5.5 years. If I wait that duration and reinvest all dividends (excluding any taxes), should I not expect to get about 2% annually at the end? Not necessarily. If you buy it today (or probably tomo...
by patrick
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9434

Re: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?

I thought small caps were included as it was an all cap fund (except they are included at market weights) While on the topic, if you were to have a 50/50 allocation domestic/international - would it make more sense for rebalancing purposes to keep them separate? While I know the cap weighting will ...
by patrick
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?
Replies: 26
Views: 2837

Re: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .

The vast majority of retirees make do with far less.
by patrick
Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .
Replies: 86
Views: 12457

Re: BND or a CD

Help me understand: Assume I purchase shares of BND today when the SEC yield is 2% and the duration is 5.5 years. If I wait that duration and reinvest all dividends (excluding any taxes), should I not expect to get about 2% annually at the end? Not necessarily. If you buy it today (or probably tomo...
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9434

Re: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?

While Total World is cheap compared to the average fund, it is still more expense than covering the total world by a combination of Total US and Total International. [ Edited to remove incorrect information ]
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?
Replies: 26
Views: 2837

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

Well, at least this makes me feel a little better about costing Schwab so much money in ATM fees while never giving them any commissions. I still think they're deep in the red with my account.... I assure you they are not in the red. Have you looked at the fees they charge for money market funds? R...
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 42
Views: 3196

Re: How to calculate rate of return on cash value life insur

The 6.5% value is probably the dividend rate based on the cash value, which is certainly not the same as what is meant by an interest rate in other circumstances. It looks like you have been putting money in for about 26 years, which means you have put in about $4290 in total. Assuming that you have...
by patrick
Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate rate of return on cash value life insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 821

Re: MS Windows 7 Dead [in 2020]?

The linked article was actually about the end of sales of new OEM licenses, not the end of support, although I have read end of support panic over Windows 7 elsewhere. If you want something to worry about, note that Windows Server 2003 extended support ends next year, and Vista extended support ends...
by patrick
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MS Windows 7 Dead [in 2020]?
Replies: 26
Views: 2237

Re: Global Equity Markets — 40 Years of Evolution at a Glanc

International investing was possible for US investors long ago. According to http://investor.shareholder.com/jpmorganchase/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=239889 the first ADR (from the UK) was listed in New York in 1927. Although I couldn't find anything about this in a quick Google search, it might al...
by patrick
Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Equity Markets — 40 Years of Evolution at a Glance
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

The distinction of growth and value isn't quite the same as a prediction as to which companies are undervalued. You might expect a "value" company to outperform because it is a good value, but you'd also expect a "growth" company to outperform because it is going to grow! The res...
by patrick
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2119

Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

If you can't remember 2008-2009, then do your best to remember 2011, the year behavioral finance expert Cass Sunstein "seeing a decline in [my] fund’s value, decided to sell a significant chunk," and did so, despite talking to his co-author who told him "Reread our book!" But if...
by patrick
Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 36
Views: 3995

Re: Vanguard total international

Vanguard Total International now uses the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index instead of an MSCI index, although the results would be very similar either way. Stocks with extremely low market caps are a very large portion of all stocks when you count the number of companies, but a very small portion whe...
by patrick
Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total international
Replies: 6
Views: 1275

Re: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yiel

Don't forget that the yield decline of the last 6 months was only good for bond investors that only plan to hold for the short term. If you are going to hold your bonds for the long term then the yield decline is actually bad for you since it means you'll get less interest in the future.
by patrick
Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 4064

Re: Why include International Index in AA?

This is probably the most compelling argument I have heard in favor of International Index investing. The last time I checked, VTSMX had 3780 different holdings. Saying that I need another fund just for diversification is nonsense. However, if the current assets in this index are heavy in certain s...
by patrick
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why include International Index in AA?
Replies: 39
Views: 2826

Re: Windows XP

An XP machine can be protected easily from most means of attacks, but why bother taking the extra risk? Most attacks do not go after the OS itself. The bad guys could just mail you a file named awesomestocktips.exe. If you want the stock tips badly enough to run the file and click yes on the securit...
by patrick
Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP
Replies: 62
Views: 3036

Re: Be careful if you get this email

It is not particularly easy to get infected from malicious e-mail. For starters, many e-mail providers will just strip out all executable attachments. Some providers such as gmail go even further and don't even let any executables inside zip files get through. Once you do get the evil executable, cl...
by patrick
Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Be careful if you get this email [scam, infected with virus]
Replies: 12
Views: 1971

Re: Do you every turn your smart phone off?

Set it and forget it ... why bother tinkering with the on/off setting every day?
by patrick
Sun Oct 12, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you every turn your smart phone off?
Replies: 36
Views: 2005

Re: Recommend a NAS HD

No real answer, but I will note that the type of storage used can impact the performance. If you are using an external USB drive for storage then (assuming you have a USB3.0 machine and drive) then you can get very high speeds -- for instance I get 180 megabytes per second on a USB stick. With a net...
by patrick
Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a NAS HD
Replies: 17
Views: 830

Re: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks

So... what did you do in October 2008? I was becoming a boglehead in my 401K with these trades (buy/sell totals don't match due to new contributions): bought 18400 of stock index funds sold 17300 of active stock funds ... I think this was probably my last active stock fund ever :D sold 100 of bond ...
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 5295

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Today's 300+ (334.97, to be exact) point loss was only a 1.97% loss.

If it had happened back in March 2009 the same point loss could have been a 5% loss. :happy
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 461
Views: 34278

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Although I'm not the previous poster, I can tell you which type. All of them! The cost matters hypothesis is about active investors in the aggregate, not on any particular active investor or subgroup of active investors. Then how do you account for the fact that many active investors exclusively or...
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 16037

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

1. Not important ones that would materially change it, and it's the central point of the BH philosophy as I see it,... Actually, I think this gets at the crux of the issue of the arguments over active vs passive. There are exactly 8,732 types of active investors (more or less ;)). Which type are yo...
by patrick
Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 16037

Re: Why Hold Cash in Retirement Account

Traditionally it would make sense to use a tax-deferred account for cash because it's returns would be taxed at the higher ordinary income rates instead of the lower capital gains tax rate. Of course now that it is paying 0.01% that's doesn't seem to apply, but maybe one of these days it will go bac...
by patrick
Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Hold Cash in Retirement Account
Replies: 21
Views: 1681

Re: Bonds Beware

I would not count on it not being limited to 3% . You really have to look at the data for yourself and make your own judgement. But I do think the anti-bond rhetoric is regularly exaggerated. For example, if we look at "The Great American Bond Bubble"--Google on the exact phrase to avoid ...
by patrick
Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beware
Replies: 34
Views: 4827

Re: Bonds Beware

If you are bold enough to use extremely long duration treasuries, there is recent precedent for much larger losses than 5%. For instance, the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV, I believe the fund shown in the graph above) exprienced a loss of 40% from December 26, 2008 to January 11, 2010...
by patrick
Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beware
Replies: 34
Views: 4827

Re: [which] toilet paper [from walmart.com?]

When I was exploring frugality options for retiring, the conclusion I came to was that a) toilet paper, despite its impressive bulk, was not an important budget item; I suppose that depends on what you consider important. According to my precise calculations, in the first 9 months of this year, I s...
by patrick
Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [which] toilet paper [from walmart.com?]
Replies: 36
Views: 3030

Re: Supreme Court to hear fiduciary duty/high cost funds cas

Choosing the best share class isn't all that matters. Suppose there is an active fund that has an institutional class charging 1.25% and a retail class charging 1.5%. It would help somewhat for a plan sponsor to replace the retail class of this fund with the institutional class in a 401K. But it wou...
by patrick
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Supreme Court to hear fiduciary duty/high cost funds case
Replies: 13
Views: 1563

Re: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?

I don't have any severe violations like individual stocks, high cost active funds, or putting everything in the latest hot sector. However, I do all of the following which are arguably deviations from standard boglehead practice, whatever that is: 1) I have one active fund, though it is low cost: Va...
by patrick
Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?
Replies: 64
Views: 4167
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