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Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Note that you can't necessarily seek safety from this possibility in bonds. US bonds, for instance, have had more than 40 year periods of negative returns.
by patrick
Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 14
Views: 1344

Re: Is tax deferment overvalued?

It is not a question of ordinary income taxes versus capital gains taxes. It is a question of ordinary income taxes only (if using the traditional IRA/401K) versus ordinary income taxes PLUS capital gains taxes (when using a taxable account you pay ordinary income tax when you receive the income, th...
by patrick
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is tax deferment overvalued?
Replies: 20
Views: 2389

Re: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis

If I could summarize the majority of the comments on this (and every other board) with regard to the core Merton concept, that retirement investing should be about minimizing the risk of a shortfall, as opposed to building the biggest nest egg, it comes down to this: "Everything I've read says...
by patrick
Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis
Replies: 188
Views: 17162

Re: Transplant hard drive from old to a new laptop?

Here is a tutorial for preparing a Windows 7 installation to run on different hardware: http://www.sevenforums.com/tutorials/135077-windows-7-installation-transfer-new-computer.html I think it should be possible (except perhaps if you are getting an ultra-thin laptop) to move the hard disk, since th...
by patrick
Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Transplant hard drive from old to a new laptop?
Replies: 16
Views: 674

Re: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis

Thirty years ago, the evidence that stocks outperformed bonds was even weaker than it is today. It was not something one would easily have predicted over bond performance at that time, as you seem to believe. I'm sure you are aware of Robert Shiller's work (Irrational Exuberance), but to reiterate,...
by patrick
Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis
Replies: 188
Views: 17162

Re: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis

Did is surprise you to discover that there had been a 30 year bull market in Treasury bonds only after it was over? Did you even know it was going on? My guess is not, because Wall St. had no interest in telling anybody this, because it couldn't get rich telling people to buy T-bonds through Treasu...
by patrick
Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis
Replies: 188
Views: 17162

Re: Buy A New Windows Computer Now?

Another factor to consider. A desktop running 24/7 uses a lot of electricity. I have a Kill-O-Watt and was shocked at how much electricity a middle powered desktop uses. I had a Windows Home Server running 24/7 to share media. That thing used ~$20 of electricity/month. A laptop that you allow to &q...
by patrick
Wed Jun 25, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy A New Windows Computer Now?
Replies: 53
Views: 2854

Re: World Market Cap Representation

For many companies, especially in emerging markets, many of the shares in the hands of large strategic shareholders such as the government or company founders. The Vanguard fund uses a float-adjusted index, which means that the portion of market cap held by the strategic shareholders are not counted...
by patrick
Sun Jun 22, 2014 1:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: World Market Cap Representation
Replies: 4
Views: 555

Re: Help with fees assessment on 403B

The listed total operating expenses should be the total fee (except that, like everywhere else, it doesn't included trading costs inside the fund). The funds you lists are regular mutual funds so you can look up the returns of the funds themselves and compare that with compare your return inside the...
by patrick
Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with fees assessment on 403B
Replies: 3
Views: 235

Re: Should international travel impact your investments?

Dale_G wrote:I hold the market weight in equities in developed and emerging markets, but almost nothing in frontier markets.


For frontier markets, "almost nothing" is the market weight.
by patrick
Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should international travel impact your investments?
Replies: 30
Views: 1875

Re: Would any number make you change your asset allocation?

I don't understand posters who must stay the course regardless of any change in market conditions. Its like not opening an umbrella when the rain and lightning starts because you know the sun will come out eventually. The difference, of course, is that most of us are able to tell whether there is r...
by patrick
Sat Jun 14, 2014 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would any number make you change your asset allocation?
Replies: 58
Views: 3440

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

I used the returns, after fees, of real Vanguard funds, and I adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U. What's wrong with that? These returns certainly can't be from real Vanguard index funds, since there are no index funds that go all the way back to 1971. If you're willing to use something other th...
by patrick
Sat Jun 14, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 3086

Re: Is your computer protected?

Thanks to the OP. I discovered and removed a Java Exploit. I was using Microsoft Security Essentials. I was doing weekly full scans, but recently changed to quick scans because I was worried about wear and tear on my HD. That may be why it was not caught. The tool I downloaded from Microsoft found ...
by patrick
Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is your computer protected?
Replies: 39
Views: 4334

Re: Why have more than 70% stocks?

The reason for having more than 70% stocks is that you don't trust the chart. The historical equity premium has been much higher than 1.5% both in the US and abroad. More importantly, the worst case for fixed income is much worse than shown in the chart! If bills actually means 3-month treasury bill...
by patrick
Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more than 70% stocks?
Replies: 12
Views: 1496

Re: TIPS, debt as inflation hedge, and international TIPS.

Lending money at a lower interest rate while simultaneously borrowing at a higher rate is indeed usually harmful. But with a mortgage there are some special issues to consider: First, the matter of taxes. Since there is a tax deduction on mortgage interest, the cost of the interest may be less than ...
by patrick
Mon Jun 09, 2014 1:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS, debt as inflation hedge, and international TIPS.
Replies: 5
Views: 387

Re: Laptop (Win7 Pro) Remote Lock & Wipe

If you want to protect confidential data, encryption is probably better than remote wiping. The wipe only works after realize what happened and the wipe command gets through. Unlike a phone, there's a good chance the laptop won't be connected to the network continuously, so you may have to wait a lo...
by patrick
Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop (Win7 Pro) Remote Lock & Wipe
Replies: 15
Views: 1298

Re: Gold: old vs new theories

As a wild guess I'll say performance chasing. The huge gold price increases during the 1970s made gold popular, so it was recommended in the 1980s magazines. After gold went down for many years it became less popular and so would have eventually been taken out. Of course, now that everyone knows abo...
by patrick
Fri May 30, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold: old vs new theories
Replies: 5
Views: 749

Re: Bitcoins as investment

I'm telling you so now and I'm saying "I told you so" in advance to get it out of the way. Almost up to $600 now. Recommended: http://www.coindesk.com/7-things-every-misinformed-person-says-bitcoin/ Normally saying "I toldo you so" means that you were pproven right and others we...
by patrick
Fri May 30, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bitcoins as investment
Replies: 210
Views: 13711

Re: TrueCrypt possibly compromised/unsafe to use.

I suppose the Lavabit scenario would make sense. Would TrueCrypt's founders really just hand over the cryptographic key? It would make sense to shut it down if it really got forced to, perhaps they don't have a legal defense fund. Such a thing shouldn't happen. There's no reason they would need to ...
by patrick
Wed May 28, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TrueCrypt possibly compromised/unsafe to use.
Replies: 61
Views: 5554

Re: Need laptop advice. Lenovo IdeaPad S210 59387503?

It should be sufficient for such uses ... provided you don't mind editing your documents on a screen that is only 11.6 inches across.
by patrick
Tue May 27, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need laptop advice. Lenovo IdeaPad S210 59387503?
Replies: 10
Views: 490

Re: Jack Bogle - International Bonds

rob: there is one objective factor that makes US stocks better than their foreign counterparts for US investors, and that's currency risk. While averaging to zero, it's still a risk that doesn't get rewarded , or if you prefer it doesn't get rewarded the same for the US investor as for the foreign ...
by patrick
Tue May 27, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - International Bonds
Replies: 57
Views: 3216

Re: Bitcoins as investment

boglerocks wrote:It's back everyone. I'll get this out of the way in advance: I told you so.

EDIT: Up ~30% in the last ~3 days.


Did you tell us so? Which one of your posts contain the advance prediction that is specific enough that its accuracy can be verified?
by patrick
Sun May 25, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bitcoins as investment
Replies: 210
Views: 13711

Re: Jefferson National VA now charging for Low Cost Funds

Adding .35 seems to be fairly close to the Vanguard annuity costs. For smaller balances it comes out cheaper than 20 a month.
by patrick
Sat May 24, 2014 9:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jefferson National VA now charging for Low Cost Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1351

Re: New Boglehead'er - Investment Critique

You could lower your costs by not using the high cost international fund in the 401k. You could still have plenty of investments in international stocks if you used low cost international funds outside the 401K instead.
by patrick
Sat May 24, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Portfolio Layout?
Replies: 15
Views: 1737

Re: cable cutting questions

After reading all this I've never felt so far behind the technology curve :confused You may not be as far behind as you think. Whatever device -- whether PC, Mac, tablet, or smartphone -- you use to post on bogleheads is probably also capable of streaming video off Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu, among ...
by patrick
Fri May 23, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cable cutting questions
Replies: 49
Views: 4984

Re: 401K offering VAIPX soon. Good news or yawn?

If you are going to hold for 30 years, interest rate increases would be a good thing for you. The initial capital loss would be more than outweighed by higher interest payments later.
by patrick
Fri May 23, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K offering VAIPX soon. Good news or yawn?
Replies: 3
Views: 398

Re: Fidelity Brokerage Link

I have used Fideliy Brokeragelink. It works about the same as a regular retail Fidelity account. This means a large commission to trade Vanguard mutual funds. However it also allows commission free trades of Fidelity funds including there index funds, as well as some low cost ETFs.
by patrick
Fri May 23, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Brokerage Link
Replies: 12
Views: 797

Re: eBay Hit with Security Breach, Change Password!

And if you used the same login and password on multiple sites, as many people do, the badguys would get access to your other accounts too. [honest, serious question] How do they know what other sites I use? They don't, but they can try your login and password at a bunch of different places, such as...
by patrick
Thu May 22, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: eBay Hit with Security Breach, Change Password!
Replies: 19
Views: 1524

Re: eBay Hit with Security Breach, Change Password!

if the encrypted passwords were stolen wouldn't the hackers need to decrypt them first? Yes, but if hackers can get the passwords they might be able to get the means to decrypt. Encryption is not a recommended way to secure passwords for a web site, they should be hashing and salting. There's a lot...
by patrick
Thu May 22, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: eBay Hit with Security Breach, Change Password!
Replies: 19
Views: 1524

Re: cable cutting questions

For those of you who cut cable did you have both Tivo and Hulu Plus or one of them. I am trying to understand why I should keep either of them or both. I don't want to store the shows on media center pc or apple tv. Thanks I have done it without either of those devices, just using the PC. If using ...
by patrick
Thu May 22, 2014 12:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cable cutting questions
Replies: 49
Views: 4984

Re: Help with Adjustable Life Policy

Some further details to note: It looks like this policy has a loss since the premiums paid over 12 years are much higher than the cash value, so there should be no taxes due on surrendering this particular policy. If you really want to keep a policy that is headed for a crash, you can usually do so ...
by patrick
Wed May 21, 2014 7:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Adjustable Life Policy
Replies: 4
Views: 177

Re: Help with Adjustable Life Policy

There are various kinds of cash value life insurance, each of which has its own quirks. The general way that they can provide permanent insurance for a "low" premium is that the "low" premium is actually high at young ages. The chance of an initially healthy young person dying in...
by patrick
Wed May 21, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Adjustable Life Policy
Replies: 4
Views: 177

Re: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse

Let me put it another way: If I have a 1 year $10,000 treasury that returns 4%, I will have $10,400 after one year. So far, so good. If inflation was 2%, I will have come out $200 ahead. Almost right, though actually only $196.08 ahead since all of your $10400 is subject to inflation, not just the ...
by patrick
Sun May 18, 2014 1:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse
Replies: 38
Views: 4024

Re: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse

I am sorry but I don't think your analysis is useful. I do want to understand this correctly so please kindly be sure to point out how I am wrong if that is the case. Thanks for your help understanding. If I were to buy a $10k worth of treasuries in 1941, in 1951 I'd have $12763.43. (10 years compo...
by patrick
Sun May 18, 2014 1:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse
Replies: 38
Views: 4024

Re: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse

Think about the situation of someone who had invested in 10-year US treasury bonds from the end of 1940 to 1981. From the data on http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html you see that an initial investment of $10,000 would have become $29,685, not accounting for tr...
by patrick
Sat May 17, 2014 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse
Replies: 38
Views: 4024

Re: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse

Think about the situation of someone who had invested in 10-year US treasury bonds from the end of 1940 to 1981. From the data on http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html you see that an initial investment of $10,000 would have become $29,685, not accounting for tra...
by patrick
Fri May 16, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse
Replies: 38
Views: 4024

Re: Blended Cash Value Insurance as a substitute for bonds

I am trying to understand the infinite banking concept. Can I create a "bank" where I can use very low cost loans (<1%) to buy bonds paying a higher interest rate, and still keep the policy going ? Or are these loans really costing me more than I could earn, in which case, this plan does ...
by patrick
Thu May 15, 2014 10:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blended Cash Value Insurance as a substitute for bonds
Replies: 83
Views: 3609

Re: Blended Cash Value Insurance as a substitute for bonds

I would be curious about what "other ways" the same goals can be reached. The TIAA-CREF "Intelligent Life" policy is fully liquid and I can't think of too many fully liquid comparably safe fixed income investments paying the kinds of return they are paying. (The life insurance a...
by patrick
Wed May 14, 2014 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blended Cash Value Insurance as a substitute for bonds
Replies: 83
Views: 3609

Re: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?

The Nikkei 225 is not even a cap-weighted index, so it isn't really a proper counterpart to total US stock market. However it doesn't really matter much in this case since the total Japanese market also had abysmal performance.
by patrick
Wed May 14, 2014 2:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?
Replies: 40
Views: 5637

Re: Struggle with AA across multiple accounts

It may not be so bad to put the workplace account in stocks. You can still buy all bonds in your IRA. Furthermore, part of advantage of holding bonds in a tax deferred account is because you would otherwise have to pay taxes on them at ordinary income rates, but with very low interest rates as we ha...
by patrick
Tue May 13, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Struggle with AA across multiple accounts
Replies: 6
Views: 881

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

It happens several times per month. Wait a minute ... several times per month? Are you really trying to say that worms which infect home machines on a wide scale by scanning for vulnerable machines are really released (or discovered) several a times a month? If that really is what you mean, can you...
by patrick
Sun May 11, 2014 1:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4605

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

They could, though since the norm for home users is to firewall off everything That isn't the norm for home users, actually home users are more exposed than most businesses. Their routers aren't very effective firewalls and most allow UPNP configuration to open ports. Home users lack good firewalls...
by patrick
Sat May 10, 2014 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4605

Re: 403(b) Fund Selection Help

I would guess that you and/or your wife probably have some other savings outside this plan. If you do (or can in the future) then you could benefit by considering all your savings together. The bond funds in this plan are quite expensive so you could save a great deal by purchasing a low-cost bond f...
by patrick
Thu May 08, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 403(b) Fund Selection Help
Replies: 2
Views: 253

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

A good example of how the cloud would be superior to a home system is someone running the now-no-longer supported Windows XP for several more years, yet running gmail with double authentication on it. Even if your XP is totally naked, it's highly unlikely someone will hack your gmail with dbl authe...
by patrick
Wed May 07, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4605

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

Wouldn't a bad guy who has a genuine zero day exploit at his disposal use it against higher value targets than the regular home user? They don't indvidually target the individual home user, they write a worm / virus that automatically scans / infects the home user and then uses that home user's com...
by patrick
Wed May 07, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4605

Re: 457(b) plan options

On the International index fund in the Nationwide plan, I did not understand this footnote: 1 For investments in the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, Nationwide Retirement Services charges a 30 basis point daily asset fee for its administrative services to the plan in addition to the ...
by patrick
Wed May 07, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 457(b) plan options
Replies: 6
Views: 498

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

It is likely that now and in the future, your data will be safer on the cloud than on a home computer then on your home computer with an active online connection. Corporations of all sizes are already discovering this, and offsourcing a lot of functions like email and office-type apps to Google etc...
by patrick
Tue May 06, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4605

Re: New York municipal bonds for limited-term investment

I don't agree that NYC bonds have no risk, but would agree the risk is very low. Remember that NYC has Wall Street to provide it with lots of tax revenue.

Another alternative is to use US Treasury bonds. You'd still have to pay federal tax but they are exempt from state taxes.
by patrick
Tue May 06, 2014 12:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New York municipal bonds for limited-term investment
Replies: 10
Views: 613

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

The security issues for a home user are different than for a large business. The large businesses will likely face highly targeted attacks that try to exploit specifics of how their systems are set up or personally target specific personnel. For normal home users that sort of attack is not worth it ...
by patrick
Tue May 06, 2014 12:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4605

Re: Real estate vs total stock market

Portfolio/equities: I calculated net money put in (x), net worth now of the portfolio (y), net gain/appreciation (z, which is y minus x); divided z by x to get % return and divided that by number of years of involvement/contribution to get %return per year. z = 35%, over a 22 year span, I get 1.72%...
by patrick
Sun May 04, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate vs total stock market
Replies: 44
Views: 3451
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