Search found 556 matches

by pascalwager
Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar/Kitces -- Social Security as Part of Asset Allocation
Replies: 27
Views: 2340

Re: Morningstar/Kitces -- Social Security as Part of Asset Allocation

I'd like to see one of the advocates (Bogle, Bernstein, Kitces, Ellis) do a book/paper/pamphlet on treating SS/pension as a bond including the details of selecting/using PV formulas, or whatever.
by pascalwager
Thu Jul 02, 2015 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 51
Views: 2893

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

I like 4.0 years duration right now. I use the following sources as a guide: -DFA 5-Year Global Bond fund duration (I check this fund periodically--currently 4.0 years) -Larry Swedroe (advises seeking a compromise between inflation risk and reinvestment risk) Larry currently recommends 4 to 5 years ...
by pascalwager
Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 267
Views: 17430

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Age 72

Stocks 85%, fixed income 15%

Still living on pension income
by pascalwager
Tue Jun 16, 2015 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does the long term start?
Replies: 26
Views: 3443

Re: When does the long term start?

Eugene Fama said 35 years; and even then, you're not assured of a gain.
by pascalwager
Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Treasury Bond Fund
Replies: 12
Views: 1644

Re: Intermediate Treasury Bond Fund

I use the DFA 5-Year Global Bond Fund as a guide for duration, also Larry Swedroe's current duration recommendation based on a compromise between inflation risk and reinvestment risk. Currently, this is about 4 years duration for me.
by pascalwager
Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Treasury Bond Fund
Replies: 12
Views: 1644

Re: Intermediate Treasury Bond Fund

I like a shorter, four-year duration, so I combine the ST and IT term Treasury funds. I stick to Treasuries for fixed income to minimize risk and mainly take my risk in stocks.

David Swensen recommends using a barbell: ST and LT Treasury funds to match the Barclays overall Treasury duration.
by pascalwager
Tue Jun 02, 2015 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conventional Wisdom
Replies: 20
Views: 1689

Re: Conventional Wisdom

I started "investing" in 1980: 100% T-Bills for 15 years. I finally became aware of the deferred comp program and stock fund investing at work, but just kept buying T-Bills until 1995 when a CFP got me into MPT investing. At work (deferred comp) I began buying S&P 500, small cap, and E...
by pascalwager
Thu May 28, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at why it's important to globally diversify
Replies: 14
Views: 2427

Re: Another look at why it's important to globally diversify

Japan is a pretty unique place imo. Small island nation with declining birth rate, extremely low immigration, homogenous society, limited acceptance of outside cultures/people, deep seated and ancient cultural norms and systems which can suffocate innovation and outside the box type thinking. I don...
by pascalwager
Wed May 27, 2015 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 69
Views: 7350

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

The large end of the barbell is Taleb's greatest concern, the 90% in inflation hedging preservation. This is the portion that may impact his sleep quality and he openly welcomes any new hedging proposals.
by pascalwager
Wed May 27, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 69
Views: 7350

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Spidey The "Larry Portfolio" is uses the very same principles as Taleb, with most of the investments in basically riskless (or near riskless) investments, and the rest in the highest expected returning equity asset class--small value stocks. Larry Larry, Taleb has changed his thinking on ...
by pascalwager
Tue May 26, 2015 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 9770

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

This is still "your father's TBM" because it still invests in the "total bond market".

Personally, for bonds, I prefer to ignore the market makeup and barbell two funds to provide the duration that I prefer, aiming for a compromise between inflation and reinvestment risks.
by pascalwager
Sat May 23, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple (ex: DFA core) Vs Complex (S&D multiple segments)
Replies: 11
Views: 1134

Re: Simple (ex: DFA core) Vs Complex (S&D multiple segments)

I have two self-managed (no advisor) DFA multi-factor accounts (nine equity funds), but I find the DFA core approach very appealing. The core funds may be the DFA response to the Vanguard total market funds and their wonderful simplicity. The DFA growth funds allow a growth tilt for an investor who ...
by pascalwager
Sat May 23, 2015 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3680

Re: Why not overweight international?

I use 50% int'l as that's the long-term global average and I don't want to overweight (>50% int'l) due to higher int'l fund management transaction costs. Int'l currency fluctuations (and so-called "currency risk") do not influence my int'l AA percentage as I'm a long-term investor and the ...
by pascalwager
Thu May 21, 2015 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurate is Vanguard's 'Portfolio Watch'
Replies: 12
Views: 1803

Re: How accurate is Vanguard's 'Portfolio Watch'

Portfolio Watch is quite useful for checking my portfolio total amount and percentages of US stocks, int'l stocks, bonds, and cash. But there are two defects: -If you have int'l funds without a ticker (e.g., variable annuity), the edit function doesn't include style or size. -Once you set up an acc...
by pascalwager
Thu May 21, 2015 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?
Replies: 14
Views: 1536

Re: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?

For inflation protection, I like an equity-heavy portfolio, value-tilted and country diverse, but with annual I Bond purchases and maybe some TIPS. This is basically the DFA portfolio set up for me by an advisor 20 years ago and it's still growing in retirement. Bill Bernstein discusses this kind of...
by pascalwager
Mon May 18, 2015 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3043

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Asness seemed to be saying that 40% bonds was too little to provide diversification and would only provide dilution.
by pascalwager
Sat May 16, 2015 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurate is Vanguard's 'Portfolio Watch'
Replies: 12
Views: 1803

Re: How accurate is Vanguard's 'Portfolio Watch'

Portfolio Watch is quite useful for checking my portfolio total amount and percentages of US stocks, int'l stocks, bonds, and cash. But there are two defects: -If you have int'l funds without a ticker (e.g., variable annuity), the edit function doesn't include style or size. -Once you set up an acco...
by pascalwager
Fri May 15, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is monthly rebalancing too frequent?
Replies: 38
Views: 2936

Re: Is monthly rebalancing too frequent?

Bill Bernstein recommends rebalancing every few years. That's what I do, mainly just trying to keep US:int'l at 50:50.
by pascalwager
Wed May 13, 2015 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Stock Index
Replies: 44
Views: 4010

Re: Total World Stock Index

The Vanguard TSM and TISM funds include thousands of companies that are not included in TWS. That's one reason why I don't use the single fund.
by pascalwager
Tue May 12, 2015 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: All Treasuries or Mixture?
Replies: 17
Views: 1975

Re: Bonds: All Treasuries or Mixture?

I like Larry Swedroe's compromise between inflation risk and reinvestment risk : about four years duration. I use 1/2 each Vanguard ST and IT Treasury Funds (Larry recommends a bond ladder.) I avoid credit risk as per Larry and David Swensen (and prefer stocks as per Charles Ellis). I had a DFA ST c...
by pascalwager
Mon May 11, 2015 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International - Who really is at 40%
Replies: 93
Views: 7340

Re: International - Who really is at 40%

I'm currently at 48% int'l, but may rebalance back to 50% in the near future. I started out in 1995 with three accounts: 53% int'l, 49% int'l, and 30% int'l. As the third account (deferred comp) grew over the years, the overall int'l AA was reduced from about 52% down to about 44%. Then, a few years...
by pascalwager
Fri May 08, 2015 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Round Numbers in Portfolio Allocations
Replies: 49
Views: 3058

Re: Round Numbers in Portfolio Allocations

Bill Bernstein has referred to AAs of less than 5% in the past: precious metals 3% max, HY bonds 2% max. More generally, most of his factor-tilted high bond % portfolios include one or more funds of less than 5%. For example, Sheltered Sam's AA in Investor's Manifesto has seven (7) funds of less tha...
by pascalwager
Fri May 08, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meeting to improve 403b with our plan administrator
Replies: 13
Views: 1055

Re: Meeting to improve 403b with our plan administrator

We had three plans to choose from--two were run by banks. One of the bank plans did have VG 500, DFA Microcap, and a Barclays Aggregate bond fund with very low ERs, but also had an overall fee. I used the plan run by a large pension organization, which managed it's own index funds: S&P 500 (35 b...
by pascalwager
Thu May 07, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 49
Views: 7757

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

lack_ey wrote:What's the other 65% of the allocation? If most or all of that is stocks, I don't think you want the 35% to be pretty much all corporate issues.


Agreed. Maybe start over with a ST and IT Treasury Funds split for a duration of about 4 years.
by pascalwager
Thu May 07, 2015 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 49
Views: 7757

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Also, at Synchrony Bank, you can open an IRA MM account at 0.85% APY with FDIC insurance.
by pascalwager
Tue May 05, 2015 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's Buying I Bonds Now?
Replies: 39
Views: 3214

Re: Who's Buying I Bonds Now?

I buy the max every January 1 for some small protection in the event of unexpected inflation.
by pascalwager
Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short or Intermediate Bond Funds?
Replies: 2
Views: 493

Re: Short or Intermediate Bond Funds?

You can combine two bond funds to get a duration of about four years. Some consider that to be a good balance between inflation risk and reinvestment risk.
by pascalwager
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 4425

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

At age 72 I'm still somewhat in the accumulation stage, but mainly adding to HY savings. My stocks are at about 84% of portfolio.
by pascalwager
Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How much of your portfolio is in index funds, and why?"
Replies: 91
Views: 9059

Re: "How much of your portfolio is in index funds, and why?"

My index funds (VG TSM and TISM) comprise 34% of my portfolio. The rest is DFA stock funds, I-Bonds, bond funds, CDs, and cash.
by pascalwager
Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Booth interviews Eugene Fama
Replies: 11
Views: 1966

Re: David Booth interviews Eugene Fama

After re-listening a few times, Fama referred specifically to small company funds as being a problem (time mark 46:11). I liked his comments about paper writing: keep it as simple as possible. Put all of the simple stuff in the beginning and the technical at the end to hold the reader's attention as...
by pascalwager
Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Booth interviews Eugene Fama
Replies: 11
Views: 1966

Re: David Booth interviews Eugene Fama

by robert88 » Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:32 pm pascalwager wrote: Here, Fama says that indexing is stupid. But previously, he has said that the average investor should invest in the total market. The DFA website refers to their Fama-influenced core funds as total market funds, holding all of the companies ...
by pascalwager
Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Booth interviews Eugene Fama
Replies: 11
Views: 1966

Re: David Booth interviews Eugene Fama

Here, Fama says that indexing is stupid. But previously, he has said that the average investor should invest in the total market. The DFA website refers to their Fama-influenced core funds as total market funds, holding all of the companies in the market but not by capitalization, and internally til...
by pascalwager
Thu Apr 16, 2015 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?
Replies: 18
Views: 2347

Re: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?

The current variable rate is 1.48% for I-Bonds. Why would a 0.00% new variable rate be expected?
by pascalwager
Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much riskier are munis than treasuries?
Replies: 32
Views: 4081

Re: How much riskier are munis than treasuries?

Compared to Treasuries, munis reduce the diversification power of fixed income because of credit and call risk. I don't use munis (or corporates). I take my risks in equities, not fixed income.
by pascalwager
Sat Apr 11, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protection [(Morningstar article)]
Replies: 7
Views: 1279

Re: Inflation Protection [(Morningstar article)]

In my area some public employees with collective bargaining have COLA, but with a cap of 2 to 3%, typically.
by pascalwager
Fri Apr 10, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor
Replies: 26
Views: 4560

Re: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor

Simply, it's a recommendation by Buffett to invest primarily in the indexed American stock market provided you have a long time horizon (20 to 30 years) and purchase shares over an extended period.
by pascalwager
Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawing from balanced funds when stocks are down
Replies: 30
Views: 1953

Re: Withdrawing from balanced funds when stocks are down

dbr wrote:
No less a luminary than Larry Swedroe has supposedly stated that he would follow a strategy of rebalancing out of stocks when they are up but not into stocks when they are down.

I recall Bill Bernstein saying the same thing--for retirees.
by pascalwager
Wed Apr 08, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor
Replies: 26
Views: 4560

Re: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor

After rereading a few times, Buffett is mainly saying that putting your money in a bank account is far riskier than putting it in an index fund. I notice that 25% of Berkshire Hathaway capital structure is corporate bonds issued by the company. If Buffett is against owning bonds, who does he think s...
by pascalwager
Tue Apr 07, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds?
Replies: 13
Views: 1638

Re: Why bonds?

Postby z3r0c00l » Tue Apr 07, 2015 6:13 am pascalwager wrote: Warren Buffett considers bonds to be far riskier than stocks. With that in mind, I prefer to own only stock funds, I-Bonds, and bank savings/CDs. So two kinds of bonds and stocks? No. In general, bonds are not even part of my eligible un...
by pascalwager
Tue Apr 07, 2015 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds?
Replies: 13
Views: 1638

Re: Why bonds?

Warren Buffett considers bonds to be far riskier than stocks. With that in mind, I prefer to own only stock funds, I-Bonds, and bank savings/CDs.
by pascalwager
Tue Apr 07, 2015 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor
Replies: 26
Views: 4560

Re: Warren Buffett Financial Advisor

I'm holding 70/30 asset allocation right now, and currently have enough in my bond fund to feel secure if things really went down. With 10 to 15 years before retirement, I'm really starting to think that I should just add to my stocks and not my bonds. Mr. Buffett would strongly disagree with your ...
by pascalwager
Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching 40% of my portfolio to bonds: just can't do it.
Replies: 52
Views: 7713

Re: Switching 40% of my portfolio to bonds: just can't do it

Even at age 72 and retired, I share your aversion to exchanging stocks for bonds. Since 1995, I've had about no more than 17% (short-term) bonds, and more recently that 17% is mostly I-Bonds and bank savings/CDs. I also remind myself that Warren Buffet considers bonds to be far riskier than stocks (...
by pascalwager
Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Detriments of Rebalancing
Replies: 67
Views: 6324

Re: The Detriments of Rebalancing

Postby AllYouNeedIsLove » Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:30 am To my knowledge there are many experts who believe in allowing the AA to drift with the course of the markets. I am sure there are some with this strategy specified in their IPS. I can't recall any passive-investing-type authors who recommend letti...
by pascalwager
Sat Apr 04, 2015 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Detriments of Rebalancing
Replies: 67
Views: 6324

Re: The Detriments of Rebalancing

If you don't rebalance, how do you maintain the asset allocation required in your Investment Policy Statement?
by pascalwager
Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund vs Savings Account
Replies: 7
Views: 1923

Re: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund vs Savings Account

Open a 1% APY bank (online) savings account and also keep your checking account. You can move money from savings to checking up to six times per statement period with no additional fees. Allow three days for moving money, so does require some planning. This is what I did last year, but should have d...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds - now or later in the year?
Replies: 44
Views: 5469

Re: I Bonds - now or later in the year?

I buy on January 1st to minimize the 5-year maturity date.
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Week In Review
Replies: 19
Views: 2307

Re: Vanguard's Week In Review

by Taylor Larimore » Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:11 pm EyeDee: Vanguard's "Eye on the Economy" is one e-mail I'll not bother reading. I have learned that economic forecasts are wrong as often as right. Economic articles are mostly wasted time for me. Long ago I made a decision to simply own total ...
by pascalwager
Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance
Replies: 9
Views: 1431

Re: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance

What about the Swedroe strategy of holding long term treasuries because they are more negatively correlated with equities and will provide a better ballast during market crashes? In Right Financial Plan , Larry says that short-term bonds are less correlated to equities, not long-term bonds. That's ...
by pascalwager
Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you invest your taxable account?
Replies: 69
Views: 8757

Re: How do you invest your taxable account?

by zaboomafoozarg » Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:43 am

I only buy VTSAX, VTIAX and I Bonds in my taxable accounts.


Same here, except also use HY Savings (1% APY) and CDs.
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 16, 2015 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard variable annuity
Replies: 7
Views: 823

Re: Vanguard variable annuity

A low-cost VA can make sense if you don't have any other tax-sheltered space for a REIT fund.

I have a large DFA VA which was recommended by my advisor 20 years ago (I was maxed out in deferred comp/ROTH), but I have long since realized that it isn't efficient.

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