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Re: WSJ: William Bernstein on bond allocation

I've read all of Bernstein's books. He has always gone short with 2-3 year bond fund maturities. He barely tolerated the TIPS fund and only allowed intermediate state munis for the double-tax-free effect when included in a larger portfolio of short-term funds. He recommended all Treasuries if the co...
by pascalwager
Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WSJ: William Bernstein on bond allocation
Replies: 54
Views: 6155

Re: Jack Bogle: We need to fix the bond index

Postby Gort » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:48 pm From the Morningstar interview, Bogle says the following: "...I wouldn't go all the way to corporates. I'd keep these Treasury positions. So, if we don't have an index fund that accurately reflects the total bond market for U.S. investors, you maybe take...
by pascalwager
Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: We need to fix the bond index
Replies: 48
Views: 6098

Re: Help Me with Bond Duration

Right now, the long-term tax-exempt fund duration is only one year longer than the intermediate fund, and their credit profiles are similar (intermediate a little better). The prospectus calls for 10-25 years maturity, but the fund just isn't being managed that way right now (6.6 years maturity). Th...
by pascalwager
Fri Apr 19, 2013 1:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me with Bond Duration
Replies: 13
Views: 832

Re: Help Me with Bond Duration

"Long Term" Tax-Exempt (VWLTX) is currently only 6.3 years duration. You get an extra 53 basis points of yield for only one more year of duration from this fund compared to the VG intermediate tax-exempt fund.
by pascalwager
Tue Apr 16, 2013 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me with Bond Duration
Replies: 13
Views: 832

Re: Choosing the "right" international allocation

For those of you who've incorporated a small/value tilt in your domestic equity investing and who are also invested in international equities, have you implemented a small/value tilt in your internationals? I have US: TSM, LV, small cap, and small/mid value. I have Int'l (32%): LV, small cap and a ...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing the "right" international allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2325

Re: Intermediate term vs long term bonds in IRA

Because yields are so low, bonds can be held in taxable or IRA/ROTH.

http://www.kitces.com/blog/archives/479 ... l#extended
by pascalwager
Fri Mar 29, 2013 3:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate term vs long term bonds in IRA
Replies: 2
Views: 300

Re: Burton Malkiel, Wealthfront CIO

The interest payments on bonds are fixed. If inflation accelerates, so should AT&T's earnings and dividends, making the stock perhaps even less risky than the bonds. I am convinced that income-seeking investors will be better served owning a portfolio of dividend-paying U.S. stocks than they wi...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel, Wealthfront CIO
Replies: 74
Views: 5475

Re: Burton Malkiel, Wealthfront CIO

The slide show has a picture of one of Rick's books. Maybe that's what makes it revolutionary.
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel, Wealthfront CIO
Replies: 74
Views: 5475

Re: Burton Malkiel, Wealthfront CIO

I entered some personal info/risk tolerance answers and got the following ETFs (ignoring the %) for a taxable account: total stock mkt EAFE EM dividend stocks (income) natural resources (inflation hedge) national muni (AMT-free, 6.23 years duration) Int'l = 40% of equities (including dividend stocks...
by pascalwager
Fri Mar 22, 2013 11:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel, Wealthfront CIO
Replies: 74
Views: 5475

Reducing Drawdown

Is anyone using long-short (say 70-30) and/or market neutral (50-50) funds to increase the diversification of their stock/bond portfolios? For example, for a three-fund type portfolio, a long-short fund would replace some of the TSM allocation. The main purpose would be to reduce portfolio drawdown ...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 18, 2013 3:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Drawdown
Replies: 1
Views: 323

Re: Poll: Have you recently changed your bond duration?

I want my portfolio to have only two components: stocks and riskless assets. I'll keep my DFA govt/corp bond fund (0.86 years duration), it's in a non-managed VA, but also lots of cash in bank FDIC-protected accounts. The VG "short-term" bond fund durations (2.4 to 2.7 years) are too long ...
by pascalwager
Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Poll: Have you recently changed your bond duration?
Replies: 66
Views: 4660

Re: Slice and dice international: By Region or Large and Sma

For international, you can also use one of the following:

1. large value and small company
2. small company
3. small value

Lower correlation with US by avoiding int'l large growth. I have number 1.
by pascalwager
Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and dice international: By Region or Large and Small?
Replies: 2
Views: 263

Re: Percent allocation to TIPS?

I think Larry said he isn't currently using Treasuries in client portfolios. Also, in his bonds book decision table for TIPS allocation, he shows 0% allocation to TIPS for real yield <1.5%.
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Percent allocation to TIPS?
Replies: 25
Views: 3340

Re: What does your international equity allocation look like

% of equities:

19% int'l large value
12% int'l small companies
1% emerging markets

32% total int'l
by pascalwager
Tue Mar 05, 2013 5:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does your international equity allocation look like?
Replies: 66
Views: 2893

Re: Is 100% in Municipal Bonds OK?

In "Investor's Manifesto", Bernstein splits Taxable Ted's FI equally amongst:

...MM (T-Notes later when rates increase)
...STIG
...CA Intermediate Term Tax Exempt
...Limited Term Tax Exempt

That was then. Now he might advise mostly T-Bills.
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 100% in Municipal Bonds OK?
Replies: 17
Views: 2212

Re: Goodbye to the free lunch of international diversificati

Larry,

If we're only trying to protect against the Japan effect (occurring in the US), do you still recommend minimum 40% int'l?
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goodbye to the free lunch of international diversification
Replies: 62
Views: 5201

Re: Post your Morningstar X-Ray Style Box

Domestic and foreign (32% foreign):

27-19-14
10-08-05
07-07-05

44% value
34% core
24% growth

60% large
23% mid
19% small

Bonds are presently under construction, but will be under three years overall duration, about 10 to 20% of portfolio.
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Post your Morningstar X-Ray Style Box
Replies: 71
Views: 2953

Re: Goodbye to the free lunch of international diversificati

Even in 1995, Sinquefield showed that adding EAFE didn't help much--int'l small/value helped a little more, but not a compelling need. I have only kept int'l (DFA small/value) to guard against the Japan effect, and as recommended by Bernstein.
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goodbye to the free lunch of international diversification
Replies: 62
Views: 5201

Re: Total World Stock (TWS) Turnover

I've long had two slice and dice accounts with 49% int'l and 53% int'l, so TWS with 55% int'l in my Rollover IRA/ROTH/taxable might not seem too strange.
by pascalwager
Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World Stock (TWS) Turnover
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Total World Stock (TWS) Turnover

VG TSM and TISM have turnover rates of only 3% and TWS has a 16% turnover rate. Any idea why TWS has a much higher turnover? Is TWS suitable for a taxable account?
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World Stock (TWS) Turnover
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: A question for value tilters about the average investor

Cochrane says that investors working for value-type companies would be advised to not invest in value funds, but also refers to an "average investor" who is defined by their fear of value/small stocks and their known behavior during recessions. These investors are average because their inv...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 21, 2013 3:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question for value tilters about the average investor
Replies: 51
Views: 2744

Re: Coffee House - Vanguard alternative

Post by Dogs » Wed Feb 20, 2013 2:07 pm pascalwager wrote:TISM doesn't provide much int'l diversification, but int'l small/value do. Is this a typo? I would have thought TISM was the most diversified. TISM is highly diversified in number of stocks, but barely reduces the standard deviation of a US ...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 21, 2013 12:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Coffee House - Vanguard alternative
Replies: 19
Views: 2891

Re: Tax Question

Good information. I suppose the conversion is only necessary in a taxable account. I didn't know about the conversion and always did exchanges in my IRA account--but none in taxable.
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 20, 2013 2:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Question
Replies: 3
Views: 379

Re: Coffee House - Vanguard alternative

Too much REIT (10% of equities max), not enough int'l. (at least 20% of equities). TISM doesn't provide much int'l diversification, but int'l small/value do. For int'l, LV and SC work well. If you don't have access to ILV, then you could consider doing a TISM/ISC split if you want to reduce the over...
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 20, 2013 2:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Coffee House - Vanguard alternative
Replies: 19
Views: 2891

Tax Question

If you exchange TSM Investor Class into TSM Admiral Class, are capital gains generated?
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Question
Replies: 3
Views: 379

Re: Switching to Value Tilt

Are you convinced that adding TISM reduces the standard deviation of a US portfolio? I have 32% int'l, but 30% is value/small which at least does have some effect on SD. I wouldn't go above 30% int'l as recommended by VG, Bernstein, Ferri, and I wouldn't use any TISM.
by pascalwager
Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching to Value Tilt
Replies: 8
Views: 633

Re: Have I made smart fund choices?401k&after tax. Please ad

Just go with the 80:20 for the ROTH. Later, when you have sufficient amounts ($3k minimum/fund), you can sell and convert to a three-fund portfolio with 30% bonds.

For taxable, TSM is fine until you can afford a three-fund portfolio.
by pascalwager
Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have I made smart fund choices?401k&after tax. Please advise
Replies: 34
Views: 1951

Re: Have I made smart fund choices?401k&after tax. Please ad

Okay. It probably makes sense to stick with just the index funds. Would you recommend investing 19% in small cap (R2000 INDX)? Given the options available to me which funds would you recommend and what percentages? How would you do it if you wanted a ~70-30 ratio? Consider 42:7:21:30, S&P500:R2...
by pascalwager
Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have I made smart fund choices?401k&after tax. Please advise
Replies: 34
Views: 1951

Re: Have I made smart fund choices?401k&after tax. Please ad

SSGA R2000 INDX - (Stock Small cap) - US - 19% SSGA FLAG 500 INDX- (Stock Large Cap)- US - 21% SSGA EAFE INDX - (Stock Europe Developed Markets)- 13% SSGA AGG Bond INDX - (Bonds) - 18% American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund Class R-6 -28% (RERGX)(International stocks) - 20% Fidelity Target retireme...
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 17, 2013 11:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have I made smart fund choices?401k&after tax. Please advise
Replies: 34
Views: 1951

Re: Why are bonds "just to hold cash and reduce volatility"?

Income should be drawn from the entire portfolio. If you withdraw $1000 per month, then $700 should come from the bonds and $300 from the stocks.
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 16, 2013 5:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds "just to hold cash and reduce volatility"?
Replies: 21
Views: 1768

Re: Vanguard's awful "Portfolio Analysis" tool...

I keep a detailed spreadsheet with all kinds of calculated percentages, and the VG tool seems accurate by comparison. I haven't figured out how it identifies between the US and int'l funds in my outside VA portfolio. These funds don't have symbol entries, just descriptive name entries like large cap...
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's awful "Portfolio Analysis" tool...
Replies: 58
Views: 9172

Re: Looking for slice an' dice portfolio feedback

The int'l looks good.

For domestic, I'd eliminate the midcap and go something like 27/13 TSM/SV. Midcap blend has a higher correlation with large than does small, so the multi-factor diversification effect is not optimal.
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for slice an' dice portfolio feedback
Replies: 19
Views: 1265

Re: RMD Timing

My health is decent, so I'll probably take a chance on early December. I'll probably move the (large cap index) money into a MM and redistribute into TSM and/or TSIM for rebalancing. Is there withholding as part of the transaction?
by pascalwager
Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD Timing
Replies: 22
Views: 1606

RMD Timing

When moving an RMD from an IRA to a taxable account, are there any timing recommendations to consider (time of year)?
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 09, 2013 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD Timing
Replies: 22
Views: 1606

Re: Struggling to construct bond portion of portfolio

You might want to put the lower yield fund in taxable–this is usually the shorter term fund.
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Struggling to construct bond portion of portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 781

Re: Stocks are at a 5 year high, now what?

The 5-year high information has no operational significance, so there's nothing to do.
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are at a 5 year high, now what?
Replies: 55
Views: 7407

Re: For munis, bond fund or ladder

Larry, Could you elaborate regarding the following? For example someone living in Texas should almost certainly not own NY or Cal bonds, but if you buy a national fund you will. Do you mean that national muni funds are inappropriate for anyone because they include bonds from states other than the in...
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For munis, bond fund or ladder
Replies: 67
Views: 3907

Re: Total Stock Index + Small Cap?

If you work for a small company, you might not want to add more small company risk, beyond the market amount (9% of TSM), with a small cap fund. If you work for a large growth company, you might want to add small cap or small cap value. If you work for a large value company, you might want to add sm...
by pascalwager
Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Stock Index + Small Cap?
Replies: 12
Views: 1144

Re: Rebalancing only stocks/bonds but not US/international?

You can exploit the foreign tax credit in taxable, but not in tax-deferred or tax-free. Then, if you have room left over, total US market is fine in taxable.
by pascalwager
Fri Feb 08, 2013 4:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing only stocks/bonds but not US/international?
Replies: 13
Views: 940

Re: Struggling to construct bond portion of portfolio

SHV - iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF - 0.44 SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF - 1.80 IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF - 4.43 IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF - 7.42 TLH - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF - 9.97 TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF - 16.8 EDV - Vangu...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 07, 2013 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Struggling to construct bond portion of portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 781

Re: Charlie Ellis & Burton Malkiel say 0% bonds OK under 50

If Malkiel's views on investing are presumed to be final, then why would he need to revise his book every few years? The Elements of Investing was published in 2010; but currently, Malkiel/Ellis don't seem to be willing to encourage holding any bonds, although Malkiel allows for some munis, dividend...
by pascalwager
Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Ellis & Burton Malkiel say 0% bonds OK under 50
Replies: 155
Views: 11018

Ferri on Current Stocks

http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investmen ... wn-stocks/

Is Rick recommending stock purchases right now, or just pointing out that we can start admiring our returns while others buy and drive up the prices? I suppose he'd advise buying bonds at the same time to maintain AA.
by pascalwager
Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ferri on Current Stocks
Replies: 16
Views: 2122

Re: Is Buffett suggestion 100% equities

What would a billionaire, who successively times the market due to sheer buying power and extensive research, who would certainly advocate income and hard work above investing, know about investing a few thousand in mutual funds? I wouldn't care what the Secretary of Defense says about bank robberi...
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 26, 2013 1:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Buffett suggestion 100% equities
Replies: 15
Views: 3054

Re: Is Buffett suggestion 100% equities

Buffet advises against owning bonds under present conditions because of the low yields and low potential for lowering interest rates–so they're not actually investments. His fund still holds 10 to 20 $Billion in bonds, but only for liquidity (for buying more companies or stocks) or due to SEC rules–...
by pascalwager
Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Buffett suggestion 100% equities
Replies: 15
Views: 3054

Re: Gus Sauter Worried About "Bond Bubble"

I think Sauter was concerned about investors who have increased their bond AA/maturity in the attempt to increase income or further reduce risk. Also, he seems to oppose high bond AA's. That's my impression from recent interviews.
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gus Sauter Worried About "Bond Bubble"
Replies: 20
Views: 2894

Re: Need new desktop PC

pascalwager wrote:I have a Lenovo ideacentre all-in-one desktop with US tech support. Wow! Sweet. Desktop, right? Yes, a desktop with touch-screen and Windows 8. I really like the new start screen--just touch the BH tile and I'm here! You can pin a start screen tile for any site/file you wish.
by pascalwager
Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need new desktop PC
Replies: 19
Views: 1920

Re: Need new desktop PC

I have a Lenovo ideacentre all-in-one desktop with US tech support.
by pascalwager
Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need new desktop PC
Replies: 19
Views: 1920

Re: Equal weighting or market cap weighting?

X-Ray shows RSP: 51% large, 48% mid, and 1% small. So the near 10-year outperformance may/must be due to midcap outperformance.
by pascalwager
Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weighting or market cap weighting?
Replies: 124
Views: 5893

Re: Equal weighting or market cap weighting?

EWI seems to be an Italy index fund.
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 07, 2013 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weighting or market cap weighting?
Replies: 124
Views: 5893

Re: Vanguard Charts using Adobe Flash

"Flash Player is embedded in Windows 8 Modern IE and Modern IE Desktop" What does this mean? I get this message at times on the Vanguard site regarding missing information. Do I need to download Flash Player for my Windows 8 system?
by pascalwager
Mon Jan 07, 2013 1:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Charts using Adobe Flash
Replies: 10
Views: 918
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