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Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

by tadamsmar » Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:59 pm paper200 wrote: I am with Rick on this and our Intl/US stock ratio is 0.52. The Vanguard Target dates are all at 0.41 for the same quantity. Rick's ratio is 0.43, so why do you say you are with Rick? Here is Rick's allocation in his own words: Currently, 70%...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36077

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Interesting thesis by Rick. The returns (two sets of arbitrary dates) are as follows: Years TSM Total intl TBM 30:20:50 Wellington Wellesley (72-95) 11.8% 14.4% 9.00% 11.3% 11.3% 11.4% Std Dev 17.5% 23.2% 6.20% 10.2% 13.3% 10.2% (96-14) 8.70% 4.90% 5.40% 7.00% 9.00% 8.00% Std Dev 19.1% 21.8% 3.40% 9...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36077

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

Fantastic! Many Thanks. Learnt something new
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 645
Views: 400023

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I am curious if someone else ran into this problem. The below noted formula when cut and paste from Simba spreadsheet (Excel 1997-2003) does not work in Excel 2010. I am reasonably familiar with Excel formulas but now 'am lost. Even just the product function with the % added or just PRODUCT(1+B8:B20...
by paper200
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 645
Views: 400023

Re: Separating 5-10 yr investments from retirement portolio

TDG - i think allocation is fine. The 90k can also be kept in vanguard income target date fund look into it,
by paper200
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Separating 5-10 yr investments from retirement portolio
Replies: 26
Views: 1618

Re: High Net Worth Investing

OP's issue is more than an investment issue. It is behavioral/psychological. Reaching a goal at an early age and not wanting black swan event(s) to cause a retreat from the mountain top is the root problem. A lot of us go through the same, albeit with lesser number of zeros, and Bogleheads Forum pro...
by paper200
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Net Worth Investing
Replies: 84
Views: 10911

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Last year began very badly for the fund (-130%) so we have decided to change name and promise an even worse start. Since we only had the patience to go through the first page listing of Russell 2000 list we will rename the fund as Dr A's Wealth Fund, (here y(our) wealth and health are more important...
by paper200
Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 126
Views: 11430

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

FWIW: After starting to read this post, I checked the Vanguard Target retirement portfolios this is how they have positioned: (Additional sig. figure included to line up numbers). Basically, Vanguard is keeping ratio of US/International fixed at 0.42 for Stocks and 0.25 for bonds. Anyone knows the b...
by paper200
Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 36077

Re: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?

Owned it from about 2002/3 until 2012 with DCA during early part of the investment. Did not feel the returns as the investment was in our taxable portion.
by paper200
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's best fund: Healthcare?
Replies: 60
Views: 7172

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

S&P on 31st December 2015 :confused - 1852
by paper200
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 556
Views: 19948

Re: What are your Financial New Year's Resolutions?

KISS and continue to save
by paper200
Tue Dec 30, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Financial New Year's Resolutions?
Replies: 44
Views: 3331

Re: POLL: How do you make important investment decisions?

Simple ideas. Lost :moneybag on anything other than simple ideas
by paper200
Sat Dec 27, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: How do you make important investment decisions?
Replies: 27
Views: 2815

Re: trend following

Momentum charts are post hoc anyways. However, they look very tempting. Generally, we need to figure out when to time (decision point time) the time (execution time) for buying( or selling) and then the momentum direction (prediction at decision point time and during actual execution). So for a prof...
by paper200
Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trend following
Replies: 80
Views: 5214

Re: What NW amount makes this person financially free?

Get adopted by or married to a fabulously wealthy person. Life is made and is a solution to #3
by paper200
Fri Nov 14, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What NW amount makes this person financially free?
Replies: 19
Views: 2570

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

Atleast OP and spouse are not rebalancing their gains and losses! When one has a lot of water at hand they can play with fire.
by paper200
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 8490

Re: Why I choose "The Majesty of Simplicity" for my signatur

This quote caught my eyes; LeBron James says (maybe many previously): "It's how you make money when you're asleep that's going to get you there." http://www.fool.com/ecap/the_motley_fool/lebron-james-the-next-warren-buffett/?paid=7394&psource=esatab7410860116&waid=8445&wsource=...
by paper200
Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I choose "The Majesty of Simplicity" for my signature
Replies: 42
Views: 21112

Re: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation

This song "time" from dark side of the moon album says it all "You are young and life is long and there is time to kill today. And then one day you find ten years have got behind you. No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun. " Yes early savings and at a maximum p...
by paper200
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time + Savings Rate > Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1727

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

I ran with the following algo for many years before realizing a typo was yielding non optimal result

Do 1 to m, m years
Buy high
Sell low
Next m
by paper200
Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 8997

Re: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh

The best in a long time. In reality Wall Street wants your sweat :moneybag with obfuscation of the truth that they really don't know......
by paper200
Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh
Replies: 17
Views: 3201

Re: Engagement Ring - Diamond Help

Blue Nile and Costco are both really good. BN for high end diamonds. I bought from both places for DW on the 25th anniversary early part of this year. This forum was very useful in providing guidance. All other places i looked were expensive and lower quality. One thing is for sure with diamonds one...
by paper200
Mon Aug 04, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engagement Ring - Diamond Help
Replies: 61
Views: 4775

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Dave is giving "Balanced" advise to his flock -some good some bad- you pick the allocation. :D We nerds can't stand the fact that people still go for it. I knew a colleague in 07/08 who loved Ben Stein... I did not follow up though.
by paper200
Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 24796

Re: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?

I want to retire today (age 52), DW says nooooooo, So plan after 60. Want to enjoy life as it becomes shorter as we grow older. Have roof and food and auto to drive around which better than most in the world! Love watching "buying properties in Hawaii..." And dream about the permanent 80F ...
by paper200
Wed May 28, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?
Replies: 49
Views: 5208

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

He is an old school person - Kindle e.t.c. will not be suitable.
by paper200
Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1007

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

Thanks for the suggestions. My FIL lives outside US. We have been able to directly contact Eschenbach Optical who have provided list of retailers/docs to contact for high power magnifiers.

Once again Thanks to all.
by paper200
Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1007

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

Hi Thanks for all your replies. MY FIL has Macular degeneration of the eyes and has reading difficulties. He right now needs a minimum of 3-5X magnification to read and, therefore, the hand held magnifying glass that is 2 inches or bigger to ease his reading effort. We have looked and researched a l...
by paper200
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1007

Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

We are looking for a 6X or higher magnification with diameter more than 2 inches good quality hand held magnifying glass for my Father-in-law. We have looked into Schweizer and Eschenbach. Any recommendation will be helpful. Googled a lot but still not comfortable.

Thanks
by paper200
Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 1007

Re: "The 4% rule and a dynamic retirement spending plan"

Trying to have a fixed spending $X in retirement from a portfolio (<20X) that will fluctuate is a tough proposition if the portfolio is to survive for >20 years. Spending has to be a variable year to year. Spending $ for next fiscal year likely will depend on investment returns the current/past fisc...
by paper200
Sun Apr 06, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 4% rule and a dynamic retirement spending plan"
Replies: 14
Views: 2383

Re: Why do billionaires use active managers? Any that don't?

Once a boss always a boss : Powerpoint is what they are used to - lose money the managers will have an impressive powerpoint justifying why they did not lose anymore and if they make :moneybag same powerpoint story asking for bonuses and take more risk to make even more :moneybag Any that don't has ...
by paper200
Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do billionaires use active managers? Any that don't?
Replies: 28
Views: 3503

Re: Will the Super Bowl Theory Hold Up This Time?

I am leaveraging 300% since it will be blow out! :idea: :moneybag :sharebeer
by paper200
Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Super Bowl Theory Hold Up This Time?
Replies: 19
Views: 3042

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

[(Removed) --admin LadyGeek] someone moved the dartboard! :oops: :twisted:
My clients are now going sue me for not anticipating blockbuster clinical trial data :annoyed
by paper200
Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16557

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Dec 31st 2014 - S&P 500 will be at 2125

and a sack :moneybag awaits.......... :oops: .wake up you are not in Wall Street :oops:
by paper200
Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 537
Views: 15895

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

Dr. Monkey CureAll Dart Health Fund

Motto: We do good we keep your $$. You do bad we keep your $$

Long PFE
Long Jazz

Short KBIO
Short ICPT
by paper200
Mon Dec 30, 2013 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16557

Re: Are Bogleheads "robots with Excel Spreadsheets?"

nisiprius wrote: It drive me bananas that people toss off this sort of statement lightly, as if only a negligible percentage of septenarians have health problems... as if septenarians could state their year of birth on a résumé and ever get an interview... and as if there weren't an intergeneration...
by paper200
Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads "robots with Excel Spreadsheets?"
Replies: 74
Views: 4155

Re: Barry Ritholtz: Using the news

I like his blog a lot and read them often for interesting information but..... BR is very cognizant of the following quote "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." And also rails about stuff like this http://www.fool.com/...
by paper200
Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barry Ritholtz: Using the news
Replies: 15
Views: 1940

Re: Flaw: retirement studies assume no behavioral mistakes?

Given a reasonable parking length, for a robot driven car the parking process likely be revesible. For a human driven car it likely will be a hysteresis curve like, i.e. difficult to pull in but easy to pull out.
by paper200
Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw: retirement studies assume no behavioral mistakes?
Replies: 83
Views: 3582

Re: Did you wish you were more aggressive when you were youn

Not at all clued in until i was 40+. Knew price of everything but value of nothing. The decade of the 90's until 2000's were the days of buy high and sell low. The few good things that came out were anxiety and fear combined made me save A lot and spend less and get a few lucky breaks.
by paper200
Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you wish you were more aggressive when you were younger?
Replies: 47
Views: 4407

Re: Bubbles and Efficient Market Theory

Information may be efficiently distributed but understanding of the information by the herd is what generates bubbles or bull or bears (BBB's) - an analogous (not quite so but to provide a visual) case will be motion of fish at the center of the school, when a school of fish chased by a (bull, the s...
by paper200
Sun Oct 20, 2013 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubbles and Efficient Market Theory
Replies: 9
Views: 1085

Re: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?

Unfortunately if someone knew/knows the exact mechanics of QE = (implies) Growth in markets then why turn off QE or plan to? I don't for a minute believe that someone could have predicted their actions would have led to market growth as we have seen for the last 5 years. If they knew what they knew ...
by paper200
Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?
Replies: 60
Views: 3628

Re: The future of hedge funds

I concur - hilarious. A joke is cloned from facts
by paper200
Thu Aug 22, 2013 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The future of hedge funds
Replies: 3
Views: 668

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

Looks like the journalist and folks who cannot live below 150K/annum with a million dollar portfolio need to go back to middle/high school and revisit a basic course in math. I have no sympathy for these folks. These are the same folks who will wonder how folks in second and third worlds live withou...
by paper200
Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 9121

Re: Controlling emotions

Sox - you are between state of saying "enough" and "not enough". Seems like you would like to have more - which means "not enough" so stick to your current allocation for an additional 10 or more years with market volatility ultimately determining actual time. Even thou...
by paper200
Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Controlling emotions
Replies: 37
Views: 2745

Re: Vanguard: your password has been disabled.

I have been using similar tactics for severals years it renders really long passwords and easy to remember amongst various sites
by paper200
Sun May 12, 2013 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: your password has been disabled.
Replies: 21
Views: 2775

Re: Are Bogleheads Actually Speculators?

The way our mind operates w.r.t. investment - first, expected return then volatility Speculation - first volatility then expected return So, when investment return is positive - the guru is revered; otherwise chastized and thrown into the ring. Speculation turns sour - so what, I was expecting this ...
by paper200
Sat Apr 13, 2013 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads Actually Speculators?
Replies: 57
Views: 3642

Re: I hit my number today.

Congrats! :sharebeer
by paper200
Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hit my number today.
Replies: 74
Views: 7434

Re: A question of skill or luck

From ensemble of ideas some ideas do have a mean free path to escape the masses.
by paper200
Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question of skill or luck
Replies: 22
Views: 1674

Re: What % of your income have you saved?

Calculated same way as OP - kept track of income;early 50's saved ~50% of the income excluding investment gains. Well Bogleheads seem to get it!
by paper200
Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 52
Views: 6109

Re: $101,000 to 'play' with...what would you do?

Right now you are not playing with all the money (note 50K is reserved for rental property - not yet invested) - it has taken a time out. If you want to get into the game and get the scoreboard moving, you need to invest with associated risks. Since you have been saving diligently but not invested i...
by paper200
Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $101,000 to 'play' with...what would you do?
Replies: 36
Views: 2792

Re: WSJ: Large Pensions Cutting Commodity Funds

:idea: When the pro's get out it is time to get in :sharebeer
by paper200
Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Large Pensions Cutting Commodity Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1307

Pundit tracker

Read in the "The big picture" about http://www.pundittracker.com/categories/view/finance

interesting that pundits will tracked and graded. Will this website have an impact on the business of punditry? Need avote :D
by paper200
Tue Feb 05, 2013 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pundit tracker
Replies: 0
Views: 175

Re: Investing Contest Article

More than the student or Blackrock - what was the Class Professor thinking? Backing testing can predict future volatility and short term returns. The prof should re-educate himself in this website.
by paper200
Sat Feb 02, 2013 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Contest Article
Replies: 18
Views: 1186
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