Bogleheads.org

Looks like the journalist and folks who cannot live below 150K/annum with a million dollar portfolio need to go back to middle/high school and revisit a basic course in math. I have no sympathy for these folks. These are the same folks who will wonder how folks in second and third worlds live withou...

Sox - you are between state of saying "enough" and "not enough". Seems like you would like to have more - which means "not enough" so stick to your current allocation for an additional 10 or more years with market volatility ultimately determining actual time. Even thou...

I have been using similar tactics for severals years it renders really long passwords and easy to remember amongst various sites

The way our mind operates w.r.t. investment - first, expected return then volatility Speculation - first volatility then expected return So, when investment return is positive - the guru is revered; otherwise chastized and thrown into the ring. Speculation turns sour - so what, I was expecting this ...

Congrats!

From ensemble of ideas some ideas do have a mean free path to escape the masses.

Calculated same way as OP - kept track of income;early 50's saved ~50% of the income excluding investment gains. Well Bogleheads seem to get it!

Right now you are not playing with all the money (note 50K is reserved for rental property - not yet invested) - it has taken a time out. If you want to get into the game and get the scoreboard moving, you need to invest with associated risks. Since you have been saving diligently but not invested i...

When the pro's get out it is time to get in

Read in the "The big picture" about http://www.pundittracker.com/categories/view/finance

interesting that pundits will tracked and graded. Will this website have an impact on the business of punditry? Need avote

More than the student or Blackrock - what was the Class Professor thinking? Backing testing can predict future volatility and short term returns. The prof should re-educate himself in this website.

Hi Mel and Billy,

Thanks for observations. Maybe we Americans have not really left the markets after two brutal bear market post 1999.

Nathan

Thanks for ur responses.

Thanks for your response. If a "portfolio PE10" is high (>25) one is basically out of luck, i.e. low bond yields on average and low earnings/high stock price.

Thanks for getting the minutes published it was a great read. It is interesting to note that the 69% of the total industry asset at the end of 1999 was 4.3T and in 2012 71% of the industry asset was 8.9T even though the S&P value ( as a market proxy) was 1469 on 31st Dec 1999 and about 1425 on 3...

I want to expand OP's question that also includes the following: Is there a bond equivalent "PE10"? Current 10 Year yield of ~2.5% is equivalent to about 40 in bond PE. For stocks a PE of 40 would be "rich" - what do we call the same situation for bonds? Should we adjust Stock:Bo...

When you get the call, you will be lucky and brilliant. Please keep us posted.

Victoria

Thanks for having faith in me

Convinced myself Lucky since I did not get a call from the Nobel Committee for the past several decades

Most folks are very confident of their daily decisions they make (and are mainly on an ad hoc basis) amd is carried through to their financial outlook. I know couple of friends and tried convincing about index and low cost but would not hear me out so I have stopped discussing anything to do with in...

Digressing - Is there a bond equivalent "PE10"? I tried searching the forum but could not find it (but I am sure the knowledge base here will have an answer or already addressed this previously). Current 10 Year yield of ~2.5% is equivalent to about 40 in bond PE. For stocks a PE of 40 wou...

Cash - fear of holding it and fear of losing it. It had been a long 6-8 years! Presently Stock to (Bond/Cash) ratio 35:65. 10-15 years for voluntary retirement.

Started working late (32, DW 38). Stock options + savings + rigormortis of the fist, in combination, has helped us save to seven figures. Hopefully Boglehead investing will provide more growth in the next decade before retirement.

Otherwise i would spend the cash on prozac

OP when there is the boglehead website why read financial porn?

Sorry I don't know where to find bond price data. The Feds have Corporate AAA interest rates for a long time period. Howver, this is the best I could find "Corporate Default and Recovery Rates, 1920-2007" at Moodys.com. Googling gives, I think, some scattered data but nothing close to the ...

Feds have data for various terms at

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm

Provides a degree of freedom/comfort -whatever it means

Hi Morgan, Welcome back. The European debt arithmatic is pretty much universally acknowledged - so what's the problem? The market still is thinks the glass is 90% full and hopes the political and corporate leaders will not break the glass. Your thesis that younger folks have no outlet for their crea...

richard wrote:

Imperabo wrote:A watched pattern never repeats.

Come on since 1991 tech analysis says there have been 4 buy low points and the 5th is transpiring as we speak and there were at least 4 sell high points

In considering the matter of safety, I don't think people give enough consideration to how increasing expected return reduces the risk of falling short of goals, and increasing expected return means tolerating a higher standard deviation. Beautifully put Greg but our social instinct is In consideri...

Poverty income in the US is about 22K or less. SS for a couple (paid into system) should take them to poverty level. The next level is at 41 K, the average US income. To make to this level need ~1M asset returning @2.2% + SS. Roughly any ratio of Stk and Bnd should provide the 2.2% income. So if one...

I estimate from Bloomberg the Greek stock market index at about 5000 in Sept of 2008 and Intermediate bonds - a WAG - at 5%-7%. So even as a boglehead with 50:50 home : International and rebalanced yearly over say up to 2010 before realizing the futility would have set back by -X% (less than -90% I ...

If you are going to invest the money in your name then I would suggest to invest in Vanguard muni funds and I-bond (1/3 each intermediate/high yield funds/I-bond) - you should get about the $250 a year for spending expense and you may not have to pay taxes on the income. Especially, if you plan hold...

I got a sneak preview of FB marketing strategy a year from now to keep the stk price above IPO - every 1000 ad click gets you a share and then you can trade your share at no trading cost amongs the 1 to 4 Billion FB users to generate a large economics vortex that grows.... :moneybag :idea: :sharebeer

IMHO OP original post was to elicit response from Bogleheads to see how we would react to a tempting 0.3% "fees" and "alternate investment" low hanging fruit to beat the market - and use these response to create a power point presentation for...

I would get out of the mistakes at the earliest with the least possible loss. Keep the GLD as in a long run it will be minimal. As far as the monthly savings goes I would invest every quarter in one of the three options TSM or TSM (ex-US) or TBM. Over six quarters you will have a 67:33 portfolio and...

Einstein et. al in science were/are interested in applying mind to mindless objects; on the other hand, economist are applying mindless equations to predict properties of ensemble having mind/conciousness. Interesting thought but no comparison to begin with in MHO.

Great posts. However, its Friday night and on a lighter note I have interpreted Nisi original post as follows using a layman's version of "Schrodinger's Cat in box problem". 1) Don’t depend on the box for outcomes 2) On due date, opening the box to see if Cat is dead or alive 3) On due dat...

WB - thanks for the pointer

Hbob - I meant buying a car worth 80-250 K so trading loss will be 10-25K a year?

Thanks Wiz - not a hack - some of the numbers I hastily jotted down could be for folks with 30M+. Please give me some slack

I have a query for the board. I am interested in knowing (since I have no clue as I am relatively frugal and I don't have or will have that kind of dough) on what do someone with $10M+ in net investments and may have income other than what his/her investment bears fruit+ have 2 paid off residences, ...

What if being in the top quartile and guess an investment event occurring 1 in 10 vs a person with IQ of 150 and predicting same event 1 in 12.56 - would it have a significant impact on the outcome? Don't think so - but still a large portion of folks with $$$$$$$ run to hedge fund to change to $$$$$...

The wealthy made wealthy and the to-be-wealthy more wealthier - in other words it is called "the trickle down finance" . I wish something trickled down this direction

Master's of the "Yesterday's Masters of the Universe" are still quizzically looking at the crystal ball - sorry a little off the original topic but not the title http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/business/transcripts-show-an-unfazed-fed-in-2006.html?pagewanted=2&ref=business&src=me...

S&P500 31st Dec 2012 - 1450

Thanks for all the comments. I completed installment of APC 6 circuit transfer switch and tripplite 2000 w continuous ups (model APS2012). Our requirements are running sump (~0.2 -o.4 kwhr per day) + lights. Additionally for a single day emergency forced air furnace (~1.5 kwhr/day). For running the ...

Jack Bogle is a major advocate of returning power from the managers of businesses to the OWNERS of businesses, but I just don't see that philosophy at Vanguard. Exactly. Vanguard no doubt is better than most if not all fund shop's - but don't they have "an obligation" to standup as shareh...

A 50% haircut for the Italian bonds like the Greek bond will results in what for those holding French bonds/banks?

My opinion is tending to zero as as investor power goes.