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Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

I ran with the following algo for many years before realizing a typo was yielding non optimal result

Do 1 to m, m years
Buy high
Sell low
Next m
by paper200
Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 7944

Re: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh

The best in a long time. In reality Wall Street wants your sweat :moneybag with obfuscation of the truth that they really don't know......
by paper200
Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh
Replies: 17
Views: 2897

Re: Engagement Ring - Diamond Help

Blue Nile and Costco are both really good. BN for high end diamonds. I bought from both places for DW on the 25th anniversary early part of this year. This forum was very useful in providing guidance. All other places i looked were expensive and lower quality. One thing is for sure with diamonds one...
by paper200
Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engagement Ring - Diamond Help
Replies: 61
Views: 4355

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Dave is giving "Balanced" advise to his flock -some good some bad- you pick the allocation. :D We nerds can't stand the fact that people still go for it. I knew a colleague in 07/08 who loved Ben Stein... I did not follow up though.
by paper200
Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 22479

Re: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?

I want to retire today (age 52), DW says nooooooo, So plan after 60. Want to enjoy life as it becomes shorter as we grow older. Have roof and food and auto to drive around which better than most in the world! Love watching "buying properties in Hawaii..." And dream about the permanent 80F ...
by paper200
Wed May 28, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?
Replies: 49
Views: 5002

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

He is an old school person - Kindle e.t.c. will not be suitable.
by paper200
Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 942

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

Thanks for the suggestions. My FIL lives outside US. We have been able to directly contact Eschenbach Optical who have provided list of retailers/docs to contact for high power magnifiers.

Once again Thanks to all.
by paper200
Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 942

Re: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

Hi Thanks for all your replies. MY FIL has Macular degeneration of the eyes and has reading difficulties. He right now needs a minimum of 3-5X magnification to read and, therefore, the hand held magnifying glass that is 2 inches or bigger to ease his reading effort. We have looked and researched a l...
by paper200
Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 942

Hand held illuminated magnifying glass

We are looking for a 6X or higher magnification with diameter more than 2 inches good quality hand held magnifying glass for my Father-in-law. We have looked into Schweizer and Eschenbach. Any recommendation will be helpful. Googled a lot but still not comfortable.

Thanks
by paper200
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hand held illuminated magnifying glass
Replies: 13
Views: 942

Re: "The 4% rule and a dynamic retirement spending plan"

Trying to have a fixed spending $X in retirement from a portfolio (<20X) that will fluctuate is a tough proposition if the portfolio is to survive for >20 years. Spending has to be a variable year to year. Spending $ for next fiscal year likely will depend on investment returns the current/past fisc...
by paper200
Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 4% rule and a dynamic retirement spending plan"
Replies: 14
Views: 2024

Re: Why do billionaires use active managers? Any that don't?

Once a boss always a boss : Powerpoint is what they are used to - lose money the managers will have an impressive powerpoint justifying why they did not lose anymore and if they make :moneybag same powerpoint story asking for bonuses and take more risk to make even more :moneybag Any that don't has ...
by paper200
Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do billionaires use active managers? Any that don't?
Replies: 28
Views: 3480

Re: Will the Super Bowl Theory Hold Up This Time?

I am leaveraging 300% since it will be blow out! :idea: :moneybag :sharebeer
by paper200
Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Super Bowl Theory Hold Up This Time?
Replies: 19
Views: 2991

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

[(Removed) --admin LadyGeek] someone moved the dartboard! :oops: :twisted:
My clients are now going sue me for not anticipating blockbuster clinical trial data :annoyed
by paper200
Fri Jan 10, 2014 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 155
Views: 13375

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Dec 31st 2014 - S&P 500 will be at 2125

and a sack :moneybag awaits.......... :oops: .wake up you are not in Wall Street :oops:
by paper200
Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 536
Views: 13767

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

Dr. Monkey CureAll Dart Health Fund

Motto: We do good we keep your $$. You do bad we keep your $$

Long PFE
Long Jazz

Short KBIO
Short ICPT
by paper200
Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 155
Views: 13375

Re: Are Bogleheads "robots with Excel Spreadsheets?"

nisiprius wrote: It drive me bananas that people toss off this sort of statement lightly, as if only a negligible percentage of septenarians have health problems... as if septenarians could state their year of birth on a résumé and ever get an interview... and as if there weren't an intergeneration...
by paper200
Sun Dec 29, 2013 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads "robots with Excel Spreadsheets?"
Replies: 74
Views: 4050

Re: Barry Ritholtz: Using the news

I like his blog a lot and read them often for interesting information but..... BR is very cognizant of the following quote "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." And also rails about stuff like this http://www.fool.com/...
by paper200
Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barry Ritholtz: Using the news
Replies: 15
Views: 1824

Re: Flaw: retirement studies assume no behavioral mistakes?

Given a reasonable parking length, for a robot driven car the parking process likely be revesible. For a human driven car it likely will be a hysteresis curve like, i.e. difficult to pull in but easy to pull out.
by paper200
Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw: retirement studies assume no behavioral mistakes?
Replies: 83
Views: 3526

Re: Did you wish you were more aggressive when you were youn

Not at all clued in until i was 40+. Knew price of everything but value of nothing. The decade of the 90's until 2000's were the days of buy high and sell low. The few good things that came out were anxiety and fear combined made me save A lot and spend less and get a few lucky breaks.
by paper200
Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you wish you were more aggressive when you were younger?
Replies: 47
Views: 4357

Re: Bubbles and Efficient Market Theory

Information may be efficiently distributed but understanding of the information by the herd is what generates bubbles or bull or bears (BBB's) - an analogous (not quite so but to provide a visual) case will be motion of fish at the center of the school, when a school of fish chased by a (bull, the s...
by paper200
Sun Oct 20, 2013 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubbles and Efficient Market Theory
Replies: 9
Views: 1063

Re: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?

Unfortunately if someone knew/knows the exact mechanics of QE = (implies) Growth in markets then why turn off QE or plan to? I don't for a minute believe that someone could have predicted their actions would have led to market growth as we have seen for the last 5 years. If they knew what they knew ...
by paper200
Mon Sep 23, 2013 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Does QE Cause Equities to Rise ?
Replies: 60
Views: 3559

Re: The future of hedge funds

I concur - hilarious. A joke is cloned from facts
by paper200
Thu Aug 22, 2013 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The future of hedge funds
Replies: 3
Views: 659

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

Looks like the journalist and folks who cannot live below 150K/annum with a million dollar portfolio need to go back to middle/high school and revisit a basic course in math. I have no sympathy for these folks. These are the same folks who will wonder how folks in second and third worlds live withou...
by paper200
Sun Jun 09, 2013 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 8962

Re: Controlling emotions

Sox - you are between state of saying "enough" and "not enough". Seems like you would like to have more - which means "not enough" so stick to your current allocation for an additional 10 or more years with market volatility ultimately determining actual time. Even thou...
by paper200
Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Controlling emotions
Replies: 37
Views: 2697

Re: Vanguard: your password has been disabled.

I have been using similar tactics for severals years it renders really long passwords and easy to remember amongst various sites
by paper200
Sun May 12, 2013 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: your password has been disabled.
Replies: 21
Views: 2670

Re: Are Bogleheads Actually Speculators?

The way our mind operates w.r.t. investment - first, expected return then volatility Speculation - first volatility then expected return So, when investment return is positive - the guru is revered; otherwise chastized and thrown into the ring. Speculation turns sour - so what, I was expecting this ...
by paper200
Sat Apr 13, 2013 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads Actually Speculators?
Replies: 57
Views: 3607

Re: I hit my number today.

Congrats! :sharebeer
by paper200
Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hit my number today.
Replies: 74
Views: 7346

Re: A question of skill or luck

From ensemble of ideas some ideas do have a mean free path to escape the masses.
by paper200
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question of skill or luck
Replies: 22
Views: 1586

Re: What % of your income have you saved?

Calculated same way as OP - kept track of income;early 50's saved ~50% of the income excluding investment gains. Well Bogleheads seem to get it!
by paper200
Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 52
Views: 5906

Re: $101,000 to 'play' with...what would you do?

Right now you are not playing with all the money (note 50K is reserved for rental property - not yet invested) - it has taken a time out. If you want to get into the game and get the scoreboard moving, you need to invest with associated risks. Since you have been saving diligently but not invested i...
by paper200
Fri Feb 08, 2013 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $101,000 to 'play' with...what would you do?
Replies: 36
Views: 2762

Re: WSJ: Large Pensions Cutting Commodity Funds

:idea: When the pro's get out it is time to get in :sharebeer
by paper200
Fri Feb 08, 2013 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Large Pensions Cutting Commodity Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1284

Pundit tracker

Read in the "The big picture" about http://www.pundittracker.com/categories/view/finance

interesting that pundits will tracked and graded. Will this website have an impact on the business of punditry? Need avote :D
by paper200
Tue Feb 05, 2013 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pundit tracker
Replies: 0
Views: 171

Re: Investing Contest Article

More than the student or Blackrock - what was the Class Professor thinking? Backing testing can predict future volatility and short term returns. The prof should re-educate himself in this website.
by paper200
Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Contest Article
Replies: 18
Views: 1122

Re: BOGLEHEADS 11 REPORT IS PUBLISHED!

Hi Mel and Billy,

Thanks for observations. Maybe we Americans have not really left the markets after two brutal bear market post 1999.

Nathan
by paper200
Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEADS 11 REPORT IS PUBLISHED!
Replies: 28
Views: 2616

Re: Why Not Rebalance Based on PE Ratios?

Thanks for ur responses.
by paper200
Sun Jan 06, 2013 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Not Rebalance Based on PE Ratios?
Replies: 31
Views: 2403

Re: Why Not Rebalance Based on PE Ratios?

Thanks for your response. If a "portfolio PE10" is high (>25) one is basically out of luck, i.e. low bond yields on average and low earnings/high stock price.
by paper200
Sun Jan 06, 2013 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Not Rebalance Based on PE Ratios?
Replies: 31
Views: 2403

Re: BOGLEHEADS 11 REPORT IS PUBLISHED!

Thanks for getting the minutes published it was a great read. It is interesting to note that the 69% of the total industry asset at the end of 1999 was 4.3T and in 2012 71% of the industry asset was 8.9T even though the S&P value ( as a market proxy) was 1469 on 31st Dec 1999 and about 1425 on 3...
by paper200
Sun Jan 06, 2013 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEADS 11 REPORT IS PUBLISHED!
Replies: 28
Views: 2616

Re: Why Not Rebalance Based on PE Ratios?

I want to expand OP's question that also includes the following: Is there a bond equivalent "PE10"? Current 10 Year yield of ~2.5% is equivalent to about 40 in bond PE. For stocks a PE of 40 would be "rich" - what do we call the same situation for bonds? Should we adjust Stock:Bo...
by paper200
Sun Jan 06, 2013 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Not Rebalance Based on PE Ratios?
Replies: 31
Views: 2403

Re: "Are You Brilliant, or Lucky?"

When you get the call, you will be lucky and brilliant. Please keep us posted.

Victoria


Thanks for having faith in me :happy
by paper200
Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Brilliant, or Lucky?"
Replies: 48
Views: 4405

Re: "Are You Brilliant, or Lucky?"

Convinced myself Lucky since I did not get a call from the Nobel Committee for the past several decades ;-)
by paper200
Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Brilliant, or Lucky?"
Replies: 48
Views: 4405

Re: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios

Most folks are very confident of their daily decisions they make (and are mainly on an ad hoc basis) amd is carried through to their financial outlook. I know couple of friends and tried convincing about index and low cost but would not hear me out so I have stopped discussing anything to do with in...
by paper200
Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios?
Replies: 101
Views: 7324

Re: Should You Secular Market Time?

Digressing - Is there a bond equivalent "PE10"? I tried searching the forum but could not find it (but I am sure the knowledge base here will have an answer or already addressed this previously). Current 10 Year yield of ~2.5% is equivalent to about 40 in bond PE. For stocks a PE of 40 wou...
by paper200
Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Secular Market Time?
Replies: 37
Views: 3053

Re: What is your greatest weakness as an investor?

Cash - fear of holding it and fear of losing it. It had been a long 6-8 years! Presently Stock to (Bond/Cash) ratio 35:65. 10-15 years for voluntary retirement.
by paper200
Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your greatest weakness as an investor?
Replies: 56
Views: 3506

Re: How did you make your million(s)?

Started working late (32, DW 38). Stock options + savings + rigormortis of the fist, in combination, has helped us save to seven figures. Hopefully Boglehead investing will provide more growth in the next decade before retirement.
by paper200
Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you make your million(s)?
Replies: 81
Views: 11701

Re: why cash allocation in portfolios?

Otherwise i would spend the cash on prozac
by paper200
Sun Nov 04, 2012 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why cash allocation in portfolios?
Replies: 30
Views: 2648

Re: Which book covers Wall St. Problems of last decade?

OP when there is the boglehead website why read financial porn? :sharebeer
by paper200
Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book covers Wall St. Problems of last decade?
Replies: 23
Views: 1566

Re: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?

Sorry I don't know where to find bond price data. The Feds have Corporate AAA interest rates for a long time period. Howver, this is the best I could find "Corporate Default and Recovery Rates, 1920-2007" at Moodys.com. Googling gives, I think, some scattered data but nothing close to the ...
by paper200
Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?
Replies: 33
Views: 9092

Re: Why are you trying to save so much money?

Provides a degree of freedom/comfort -whatever it means
by paper200
Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you trying to save so much money?
Replies: 131
Views: 23155

Re: AMA: Morgan & The Euro Crisis - Is this time different?

Hi Morgan, Welcome back. The European debt arithmatic is pretty much universally acknowledged - so what's the problem? The market still is thinks the glass is 90% full and hopes the political and corporate leaders will not break the glass. Your thesis that younger folks have no outlet for their crea...
by paper200
Tue Jun 19, 2012 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMA: Morgan & The Euro Crisis - Is this time different?
Replies: 73
Views: 5898
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