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Re: Gut Checking with FIRECalc

I've run FireCalc in two ways 1. With a full/long duration of retirement. Eg 35 years. 2. With multiple short durations (eg 7-15 yrs), but with a "high-ish" minimum balance. This does better at highlighting sequence of return risks. Since a 35yr duration will not capture 1987 or 2000, or r...
by or_investing
Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gut Checking with FIRECalc
Replies: 32
Views: 4327

Re: Larry Swedroe is next to 10,000 posts

This thread led me to do a Forum search on Larry's username and found this at the bottom of page 199 of the results. For those who weren't around the forum in 2007, it's a good and amusing read - for the investing and non-investing topics. The Ninth Wonder of the World (by Larry Swedroe) http://www....
by or_investing
Sun Jul 28, 2013 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Larry Swedroe is next to 10,000 posts
Replies: 38
Views: 3279

Re: SS and SWR

SS (to me) acts mostly like an inflation-adjusted annuity with survivor benefits. Picking a number (I've not actually gotten a quote myself), buying such an annuity at Age70 costs about 20-25x the annual benefit (eg 4.5% payout). So I've read. Then 'buying' every 10k in COLA'ed income will cost abo...
by or_investing
Fri Jul 19, 2013 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS and SWR
Replies: 9
Views: 661

Re: SS and SWR

:confused Hi. I don't have one way to think about SS and "SWR", I have about 5. Here's one. SS (to me) acts mostly like an inflation-adjusted annuity with survivor benefits. Picking a number (I've not actually gotten a quote myself), buying such an annuity at Age70 costs about 20-25x the a...
by or_investing
Fri Jul 19, 2013 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SS and SWR
Replies: 9
Views: 661

Re: Active Gardening Forums?

What I really need is the Passive Gardening Forum. My yard is not unlike my portfolio was before I found Bogleheads - neglected, full of weeds, not growing very well, too much work, and I don't even really know what I've got. I don't have an answer, but that's a great analogy. Perhaps you can take ...
by or_investing
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Active Gardening Forums?
Replies: 11
Views: 1039

Re: DJIA PE10

I like this indicator better: The Bubblegum Ratio and Future Stock Returns This isn't a joke. Read the entire article. Any "Price-to-anything" ratio will show the same graph has Shiller PE10. When the price of stocks are high, it means preceived risks are low thus expected returns are low...
by or_investing
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DJIA PE10
Replies: 11
Views: 1112

Re: What to expect from the stock market-

When forecasting future returns, it all comes down to which model you use.

Currently I'm using the "Real Nose and Toes" model which projects a real growth of 1.0% + 2.0% = 3%.
by or_investing
Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to expect from the stock market-
Replies: 41
Views: 4235

Re: My dentist asked me for a hot tip

My hot tip for a dentist is that he's more likely to lose money from fraud committed by his office staff than he is to beat the market from a hot investment tip.
by or_investing
Wed Jul 17, 2013 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My dentist asked me for a hot tip
Replies: 37
Views: 2914

Re: Consumerism and Happiness

Wait, I thought Mr Micawber already answered this question 150 years ago.

"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."
by or_investing
Wed Jul 17, 2013 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumerism and Happiness
Replies: 83
Views: 7098

Re: Active Gardening Forums?

What I really need is the Passive Gardening Forum.

My yard is not unlike my portfolio was before I found Bogleheads - neglected, full of weeds, not growing very well, too much work, and I don't even really know what I've got.
by or_investing
Sun Jul 14, 2013 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Active Gardening Forums?
Replies: 11
Views: 1039

Re: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid

Okay, I am offically completely baffled by "extracurriculars". I don't know what they are and I don't see what they have to do with education. Why do these institutions care so much about your hobbies? Some elite institutions don't care about that stuff. But when when a top school literal...
by or_investing
Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid
Replies: 263
Views: 17493

Re: Forest cabin as second "home"

I also can't tell if the all the cabin-owner consternation is due to an increasing rate of fees (percentage) or just increasing values reflected in the appraisal. In any case, adding 1.25% prop tax here, and I'm looking at probably $4000 to 7000/yr in just fees and taxes. Throw in maintenance, util...
by or_investing
Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Forest cabin as second "home"
Replies: 24
Views: 3773

Re: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid

A thought popped into my head about the kids being discussed here. If they are really all that bright, why do they need or even want your help? I think this thought was triggered by the super duper color coordinated spread sheet a ways back. Or maybe it was triggered by an article about helicopter ...
by or_investing
Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid
Replies: 263
Views: 17493

Re: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid

But if you paired say regionally: in-state Georgia Tech vs Rice, in-state UC-Berkeley vs Harvey Mudd, in-state UIUC vs U of Chicago. The difference in cost is enormous between these pairs, yet how different would the career outcomes be for the graduates? I don't think they would be different at all...
by or_investing
Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid
Replies: 263
Views: 17493

Re: Forest cabin as second "home"

Hi Cabins on Forest service lands are in the midst of a pretty big thrash on fees. Many (most?) are seeing lease fees increase 25-200% this year. It's been in the works for seveal years. The size of the fee increases are largely based on geography. What happens next on fees depends on Congressional ...
by or_investing
Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Forest cabin as second "home"
Replies: 24
Views: 3773

Re: Mid Life Crisis help!

Dear Boglehead community: Longtime reader, first time poster, wonderful advice on this site, I am very grateful. My advice is more on the psychological than anything else and I would appreciate any input you can give me. Overall I am a pretty happy guy, financially I have a supportive wife and we a...
by or_investing
Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid Life Crisis help!
Replies: 28
Views: 6094

Re: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid

If we assume these are random events and he'd only apply to match schools (50% acceptance), I believe he'd only need to apply to 6 schools to assure a less than 2% chance of not being accepted to any, and he'd likely be accepted to 3 schools. Hi. That feels like a big if. I start from the premise t...
by or_investing
Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid
Replies: 263
Views: 17493

Re: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid

I attended Lewis & Clark College, Reed's neighbor and sometime competitor (which, unlike Reed, offers merit scholarships), and acquired a BA in Physics. The other physics majors who graduated with me were half women, and we had a very strong role model in one of our professors (she's still ther...
by or_investing
Tue Jul 02, 2013 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid
Replies: 263
Views: 17493

Re: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid

I've been going thru the same thought process for my super duper high-achieving daughter who wants to study physics. She should think about MIT. The student body is about 50-50 in terms of gender now, I think. She can take humanities courses there, although most of her classes will be in the scienc...
by or_investing
Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid
Replies: 263
Views: 17493

Re: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid

Hi. I've been going thru the same thought process for my super duper high-achieving daughter who wants to study physics. She's, like, top couple kids in the state test score wise.. She's just not the Athlete, Drama, marquee Extra Curriculars kid. Not that I'm choosing a school for her, but I want to...
by or_investing
Tue Jul 02, 2013 2:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety schools for a Physics/Math kid
Replies: 263
Views: 17493

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

The other thing you can do is to hold only one or two investments in each account, as expenses permit of course. We hold nothing but Total Stock Market in most accounts except for one where the mid cap index fund is the lowest cost option. Does her 457 have a stable value option? If low cost, that ...
by or_investing
Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

It doesn't look like you have any room to consolidate, at least not until you stop working as they are all taxed differently. That is why you may want to manage an overall portfolio and not just a mini portfolio in each. Agreed on the 457 access. Also, deferred comp will likely be available when yo...
by or_investing
Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

Paul, Sincerely Thank You for spending the time to read everything and reply to so many points. You were the Undaunted One! I've read though your replies (once carefully) and you've given me a lot to chew on and probably act on. I need to re-read your points and advice in bits and pieces and overall...
by or_investing
Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

One item strikes me - Her 457b. Do not roll that into an IRA. Assuming this is a regular 457 account, early withdrawals do not incurr any tax penalty. These are funds you want to be able to tap if need be before age 59.5. There are also some legal issues regarding deferred accounts (not part of ass...
by or_investing
Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

Did you know you can withdraw from 401(k) in the year you turn 55 and are separated from service (i.e. retired) without waiting until age 59.5? Check your plan. Did you research the deferred comp plan? What are the negatives compared to the 401(k)? I would find it hard to believe that the 401(k) is...
by or_investing
Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

Hi Ron, Seems like your preference to have a portfolio 40/10/50 for each account seems to complicated. This wiki may be helpful. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principles_of_Tax-Efficient_Fund_Placement It is hard to chip away at things, but keep going you are on the right track. Hi flipflopliving,...
by or_investing
Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

Deleted
by or_investing
Wed Jun 26, 2013 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

Deleted
by or_investing
Wed Jun 26, 2013 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Re: Portfolio Review - 4 phases

Deleted
by or_investing
Wed Jun 26, 2013 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

Portfolio Review - 4 phases

Deleted
by or_investing
Tue Jun 25, 2013 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - 4 phases
Replies: 18
Views: 1336

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