Search found 3781 matches

by ogd
Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve
Replies: 8
Views: 583

Re: Bond Funds - Recent Performance Across the Yield Curve

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade: 2.04% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund: 1.43% Vanguard Long Term Investment Grade: 3.22% Note that Short Term bonds have outperformed the Total Bond Market Index over three years. In recent years many investors suggested avoiding Short Term bonds with the ...
by ogd
Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risks of ETN
Replies: 17
Views: 1230

Re: Risks of ETN

Thanks for your comment. I'm afraid of trading futures because I read that it can create unlimited losses (even more than the principle). Shorting XIV is more expensive but can make me sleep better. I know virtually nothing about futures so I might be wrong. Nice weekend! I'll repeat something I've...
by ogd
Fri Jul 03, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question Regarding ETF versus Mutual Fund...
Replies: 9
Views: 588

Re: Question Regarding ETF versus Mutual Fund...

Agreed, but I was trying to keep it basic for the OP. First, you will note in red that I am not confident that it will always be treated that way at Vanguard. Second, that only works with Vanguard funds. All of my Roth IRA money is at Vanguard, but only half my taxable money is there. The other hal...
by ogd
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question Regarding ETF versus Mutual Fund...
Replies: 9
Views: 588

Re: Question Regarding ETF versus Mutual Fund...

Right now, the tax issue is not a real issue for me, but I hope it will be someday (meaning I will have enough invested for it to matter). For that reason, if available, I go ahead and get the etf version of the fund I want. Again, I choose the fund first, and then I choose whether to get a mutual ...
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 26
Views: 939

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

I am not exactly sure at what you are getting at but I think the answer is no. Correlation is not designed to pick up on something like that. I would guess you would want some type of factor or performance model so one could zero in on the attributes that are driving your portfolio. I don't mean fa...
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: international rbd [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 18
Views: 1243

Re: international rbd

I got a chunk of VEA too at -3%. It was a rebalance but I also wanted to consolidate a bond fund. I don't watch for RBDs much but this was an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?
Replies: 15
Views: 1409

Re: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?

My personal rule is no more than 50% of total fixed income in munis, and no more than 33% (again from total) in CA munis. In a smaller state, the latter figure would be less. I do not tax-adjust my retirement accounts when computing this, because I'm lazy. I would also add that presently I consider ...
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 26
Views: 939

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

First, the full sample for the 2 fund portfolio is from 6/26/2008 to today. For the 3 fund portfolio it is from 1/28/2011. So not apples to apples. So I am not surprised that we are seeing a huge difference. When I run both for 2 years I get .44 vs. .47. To me that is a small difference. Thanks for...
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 26
Views: 939

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

That is, if you do something like split a Total Stock fund into a S&P fund and "extended" fund, for logistical reasons, your "overall correlation" will go up, for no good reason. Could you expand on your logic? This does not make intuitive sense to me. The weighting is not s...
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Distribution Question
Replies: 6
Views: 374

Re: Dividend Distribution Question

So OGD, does that mean that consequently I don't need to be concerned about the dreaded "buying a dividend" I've read about? At least with regards to Bond funds? Nope, you can't avoid buying your share of the dividend (but you're not buying any more than your share either). And even if th...
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 26
Views: 939

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

This measure, as I understand it, seems to be flawed. That is, if you do something like split a Total Stock fund into a S&P fund and "extended" fund, for logistical reasons, your "overall correlation" will go up, for no good reason. You have a bunch of such splits. Reversing ...
by ogd
Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Distribution Question
Replies: 6
Views: 374

Re: Dividend Distribution Question

Most mutual funds and all ETFs work as you expected, but not this one, along with other bond mutual funds.

Another symptom is that the price doesn't drop on the dividend date, since buying before day of the dividend only entitles you to pennies more than the day after.
by ogd
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Funds Win Battles But Lose Wars
Replies: 15
Views: 1753

Re: Active Funds Win Battles But Lose Wars

The problem with investing in Berkshire is that it isn't actually a fund. Pricing will vary depending on the perception and health (I wish him the very best in that regard, of course) of Mr. Buffett. Right now the perception is probably at its peak. There are other problems. One is that Mr. Buffett ...
by ogd
Tue Jun 30, 2015 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Dividends
Replies: 9
Views: 1261

Re: Bond Fund Dividends

What you're missing is the difference between yield and dividend . Or, in the case of individual bonds, yield and coupons. This is explained in some detail in http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bonds:_advanced_topics#Yield_to_maturity . As a quick synopsis for your question: bonds that have declined in ...
by ogd
Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 6959

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

Interesting article. How does this relate to the USA? Our debt has grown considerably to 18 trillion. Are we along the same path? Should we consider investing in foreign bonds? No, we're in a very different situation because we control our currency. It's not just that sovereign currency defaults ar...
by ogd
Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?
Replies: 29
Views: 2596

Re: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?

There seem to be two aspects to that. One is the way in which selling equities at a loss to buy some other apparently better thing often becomes a race to see how quickly you can transfer your wealth to others (and the broker). Certainly. That's a very healthy attitude and I'm the first to argue ag...
by ogd
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
Replies: 61
Views: 4676

Re: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds

They only work well as an inflation hedge if held to maturity. TIPS funds are not strongly correlated to inflation unless you hold a fund with very short term TIPs and the real yield on these is currently negative (as is true of short nominals also). TIPs are bonds, so they are subject to term risk...
by ogd
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intermediate Term Bond Funds Index vs. Investment-Grade
Replies: 10
Views: 1138

Re: Intermediate Term Bond Funds Index vs. Investment-Grade

Reading the current Kiplinger's and they talk about Investment-Grade bond funds and how they yield more than Treasuries of comparable maturity but carry only slightly more risk. The devil is in the "slightly". The market thinks the "slightly" is worth precisely that yield differ...
by ogd
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
Replies: 61
Views: 4676

Re: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds

Browser: there now exist TIPS. It's no accident that they appeared after the big inflation crisis, plus a long customary gestation period. They give you inflation adjustment without any wild uncertainties of the kind you'd see in gold and commodities (particularly the bad incarnations of the commodi...
by ogd
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long term ca muni fund
Replies: 6
Views: 434

Re: Long term ca muni fund

It's better than when you bought, that's for sure. For bonds that aren't defaulting, lower price automatically means higher yield. What I sense you're asking is if this is the best price going forward or if there will be further declines / yield increases. I have no way of knowing that. The current ...
by ogd
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?
Replies: 29
Views: 2596

Re: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?

It's not an advantage to hold an old bond to maturity, otherwise buyers would be willing to pay more. This isn't only how bond pricing works, but how it has to work. I guess this is what I have some sort of mental block with. It seems paradoxical. I think what I need to do is work this out with rea...
by ogd
Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?
Replies: 29
Views: 2596

Re: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?

The second is the other thing people have alluded to, where in a rising rate environment, a fund that sells bonds before maturity will realize a loss, and even though proceeds are reinvested at a higher yield, the amount of the new investment will be reduced from the original face value, so it may ...
by ogd
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?
Replies: 29
Views: 2596

Re: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?

'Ordinary' (corporate) bond funds/ETFs are, in one respect, quite UNLIKE the 'ordinary' bonds themselves that they hold: No, they're not at all unlike. They start exactly equivalent, but diverge later on by keeping duration constant. The equivalent mental model is TSM vs a long Target Retirement fu...
by ogd
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-29-15)
Replies: 24
Views: 4283

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-24-15)

Comparison of earnings yield to Moody's AAA : 4.83 % / 3.98% = 1.21. Conclusion: 1.21 < 1.33 (i.e. less than "four-thirds"). But check this out: in April, the ratio would have been 1.37 ! Since then, nothing significant has happened in the stock market and this is entirely about the bond ...
by ogd
Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing BND before rate increases
Replies: 34
Views: 3114

Re: Reducing BND before rate increases

I honestly think it's time for the learned heads on Bogle to post a "Primer on Bond Funds" so that we're all at least aware of how these funds operate. Is there a dividend payout each month that assuages a drop in NAV ?? I don't have easy access to the yield history of FBIDX, but the enti...
by ogd
Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing BND before rate increases
Replies: 34
Views: 3114

Re: Reducing BND before rate increases

to my way of thinking... rates are going up. thats a given. the fed told us so. rising rates are not a "prediction". when rates go up your bond nav will fall. the question eveyone must answer for themselves is will the gains by staying in bonds from now until the rate increase be more or ...
by ogd
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing BND before rate increases
Replies: 34
Views: 3114

Re: Reducing BND before rate increases

See my reply to a question just like yours https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=168007#p2529475 . Being early can cost you much more than any conceivable avoidance of losses. Okay, in that case it was super-early but to some (including luminaries like Bill Bernstein) it was certa...
by ogd
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and Taxes
Replies: 17
Views: 1968

Re: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) and Taxes

1. Why do you suggest CA Long-Term Tax-Exempt and [non-CA] Limited-Term Tax-Exempt, rather than CA Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt and [non-CA] Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt? This reduces the amount of non-CA interest while having about the same duration. The LongT yield is typically > IT yield > Limit...
by ogd
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to set up an automatic investment without being able to cancel easily
Replies: 11
Views: 1161

Re: Any brokerages do an ACH pull?

Yes, Vanguard can do this. They're called "automatic investments" and you pick the frequency and the destination mutual fund. I don't believe it can be done for brokerage purchases (e.g. ETFs), and I expect this to be rarely offered by anyone if at all. But what you'd do then is schedule a...
by ogd
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cyclical EDV holdings? [Vanguard Extended Duration ETF]
Replies: 10
Views: 932

Re: Cyclical EDV holdings?

@ogd - I think it's safer for two reasons. 1. While obviously both are always risky, buying in only if something goes low enough is safer than buying in at a random price. Not always better (as you noted from people who were scared to get back into the market in 2010) but safer in terms of risk of ...
by ogd
Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cyclical EDV holdings? [Vanguard Extended Duration ETF]
Replies: 10
Views: 932

Re: Cyclical EDV holdings?

Judging from the responses to similar topics about EDV and stocks, if I'd have just asked about potentially including "a small amount of EDV in a stock-heavy portfolio", that would generally be accepted as reasonable (even if not explicitly recommended). You did actually get such response...
by ogd
Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 2
Replies: 41
Views: 5669

Re: The Other Side, part 2

Even if the dollar cost averaging stock investors don’t come out ahead, there is no question that dollar cost averaging has been effective in reducing downside risk for a Japanese stock investor over the past 25 years. It wasn't DCA. It was cash that reduced the risk. The simple explanation to the ...
by ogd
Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cyclical EDV holdings? [Vanguard Extended Duration ETF]
Replies: 10
Views: 932

Re: Cyclical EDV holdings?

Like most long / safe bonds, EDV should work in an equity-heavy portfolio. But volatility is very high and Vanguard recommends its use by professionals / institutions only. It's also a small fund and although Treasuries should have excellent liquidity, long zero coupons are relatively niche and migh...
by ogd
Sun Jun 21, 2015 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing and CDs in a Market Crisis
Replies: 7
Views: 1207

Re: Rebalancing and CDs in a Market Crisis

Alice's bank account says that her CDs are only worth $20,000. So why think they are really worth $20,980? The CDs (a) are just as safe as Alice's treasuries, (b) have the same duration as her treasuries, and (c) have the same yield as her treasuries. If she holds both for five years, she gets exac...
by ogd
Sun Jun 21, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5305

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

For someone with 25-35 years of working years left, does moving (with plan to move back to bond funds when interest rates rise) the bond portion to stable value fund makes sense ? i.e. Is there a penalty of opportunity cost imposed on the portfolio by going away from intermediate-bond-funds? I woul...
by ogd
Sat Jun 20, 2015 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5305

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

InvestorAdam: consider using colors or close/reopen quotes to clearly separate your replies from mine. Thanks! ll else being equal, the expected total return during that period would be the average of the starting and ending yields—2.6% plus the capital loss associated with the rising yields (–5.5%)...
by ogd
Sat Jun 20, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 21
Views: 1941

Re: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries

You would lose. " if taxes are low" are we throwing in an income qualifier? If the taxes you pay on CDs are low, be it because of income, deductions OR sheltering them in IRAs. It's quite conceivable that in a very high tax bracket, taxable CDs lose out to munis even after acounting for r...
by ogd
Sat Jun 20, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 21
Views: 1941

Re: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries

LOL, ogd... I guess you never tried to sell bruised apples. No, but I've eaten plenty. There's no comparison with the aftermath of an egg accident. Completely agree until we get to corporates. If you know of a fund with a low, low ER, holding the highest grades (AAA,AA) corporates only, that can be...
by ogd
Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio with trend-following overlay
Replies: 8
Views: 972

Re: The Permanent Portfolio with trend-following overlay

The "for example". It generally translates into "I tweaked some parameters until I made the bulk of my assets catch the best of their respective returns. Then I toned it down so the returns don't seem as ridiculous as I could make them". These results are in the rear view mirror....
by ogd
Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 21
Views: 1941

Re: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries

There is much to be said for not having all your apples in one basket , but if that is a requirement the greater the diversification of that fund the better off you should be. A widely diversified fund such as Total Bond Market may suit you although it could be said it under-weights corporates, doe...
by ogd
Sat Jun 20, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5305

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

Everything I read tells me these funds will probably go down when interest rates start to raise. This makes me think maybe I should sell now and put the money into something safer. PH12: if it makes you feel better, I put your exact thread title into a Google News search for articles from 2010: htt...
by ogd
Sat Jun 20, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5305

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

Now is not the buying opportunity of a lifetime InvestorAdam: if you're going to malign bonds in response to a legitimate question seeking help, you should at least do so from a position of understanding them better. Just because rates rise and prices fall does not mean your coupon (it's not a divi...
by ogd
Thu Jun 18, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Change of heart on bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4385

Re: Change of heart on bonds

Would one consider my asset allocation to be now 90/10 excluding "cash" or 70/30 including the "cash"? 70/30. Normally I would say it's up to you whether to include EF into asset allocation (I do); but that's one uncommonly large emergency fund. At the very least, it warrants a ...
by ogd
Thu Jun 18, 2015 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
Replies: 14
Views: 1374

Re: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

If I end up with 90% more gold at the end of 20 years than at the start of the 20 years, and gold broadly paces inflation, then gold in effect provided a 3.3% annualised real gain. Gold did?? I would think the credit rests with either the S&P or Clive. For me, gold is too much of a confidence /...
by ogd
Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In Taxable: Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares (VTMFX) vs Target Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 626

Re: In Taxable: Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares (VTMFX) vs Target Funds

ogd, understood, but have you thought about how much? Like some examples with dollar amounts. Because in a lot of these scenarios people seem to go on and on about the differences but when they are evaluated come out to be very small, and in a lot of cases immaterial. So I am thinking it is better ...
by ogd
Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In Taxable: Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares (VTMFX) vs Target Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 626

Re: In Taxable: Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares (VTMFX) vs Target Funds

The key question is, what's your tax bracket? 25% or below, you probably don't want the fund on account of the fact that munis are not a very good deal for you. Unfortunately, above 25% is also where the additional steps to manage the components separately are increasingly worth it. So I wouldn't us...
by ogd
Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risks of ETN
Replies: 17
Views: 1230

Re: Risks of ETN

Q1: yes, you are vulnerable to counterparty risk from the issuer. This is unlike what happens with ETFs and mutual funds. Q2: this has to do with the fact that Commerzbank might not be in a position to issue any more shares of the ETN, from a risk perspective. What can result is bad liquidity and ho...
by ogd
Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LastPass.com Breach
Replies: 153
Views: 12622

Re: LastPass.com Breach

Which pw manager were you using? It's not something I want to discuss on this forum or even PM. The point is, there is an art to these things and if done right you can get a lot of security out of a password, but some details are very easy to get wrong. LastPass has that strongest layer of security...
by ogd
Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 1700

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

As it is, it's more like you are investing in the difference between the price of a contract on day A and on day B, and such things (like many other things contained in derivative ETFs) have a habit of just eating at your money forever unless you have perfect timing. If that is the case and they al...
by ogd
Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LastPass.com Breach
Replies: 153
Views: 12622

Re: LastPass.com Breach

I'm not entirely sure LastPass can identify which blob belongs to you (talking server side retrieval, obviously their algorithms can as you present credentials and it reads your key), but even so my calculated risk is that their blob and it's many layers of hashes are stronger than a password I may...

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