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Re: LASTPASS Password Program

Naïve. give me a break. Been working in finance at a large tech company for 20+ years. Believe me, I understand SW development and the issues around. Yes, but have you worked in tech at a large finance company? That's the flipside of the story. It's really the stone age in some of these places. Wit...
by ogd
Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LASTPASS Password Program
Replies: 28
Views: 2685

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

But what if this particular managed fund has beaten the index fund consistently 30+ years? At what point do you decide they are generating some positive return and giving it to investors. The person in 1994 who picked Wellesly over Conservative growth (i.e. funds within 1%) for their 10k, now has 5...
by ogd
Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 34
Views: 3313

Re: is optimization(TLH+tax credit) worth cost(time,behavior

To expand on the two posts above, I also think that TLH gives you something to do with your portfolio, when otherwise you might be tempted to do something more damaging as a way to manifest your evolving sophistication. And it's something that has a good chance of being profitable, for once.
by ogd
Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is optimization(TLH+tax credit) worth cost(time,behavior)?
Replies: 14
Views: 831

Re: LASTPASS Password Program

Large companies like Target must have at least the IT resources that lastpass has. I find it hard to believe that lastpass security around storing the passwords is orders of magnitude difference than companies like Target that are in the news lately. If that was true - target (or whoever) would hav...
by ogd
Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LASTPASS Password Program
Replies: 28
Views: 2685

Re: So do we care more about change in bond price or bond yi

The red and green curves are YTM and price for our beautiful zeros. Wonderfully well-behaved because of the consistent coupon rate of 0%. By contrast, the blue and orange curves are the yield and price for bonds maturing on the same dates but some with different coupon rates. So for this chart I di...
by ogd
Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So do we care more about change in bond price or bond yield?
Replies: 173
Views: 11894

Re: LASTPASS Password Program

So, the idea is that having a duplicate set of your User ID's and passwords, consolidated in one place, is more secure? In which case, hackers only need to be successful once to get access to everything. In a way yes, but that one success is much harder to achieve than breaking into much less prote...
by ogd
Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LASTPASS Password Program
Replies: 28
Views: 2685

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

I was going to pop in and congratulate the OP for switching out of Wellington after a period of outperformance -- which is the right time to change investments -- but sadly that's not what we're doing here. Performance chasing costs the average investor anywhere between 50 bp and 200 bp depending on...
by ogd
Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 34
Views: 3313

Re: Mr. Market turns on Amazon

How much of that is focused on relevant projects and how much frittering away earnings on ridiculous side projects? No idea. I would guess very little. It's easy enough to find out once you go past that P/E number and start digging a little. There's no better way to suck the life out of this type o...
by ogd
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Market turns on Amazon
Replies: 37
Views: 3085

Re: Mr. Market turns on Amazon

Amazon has so little earnings because they constantly expand. Those who read the full reports (clarification: this isn't me) and not just the P/E ratio can see that it's a very profitable business, for a retailer at least.
by ogd
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Market turns on Amazon
Replies: 37
Views: 3085

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

The other thing I'm noticing these days with my settled allocation and recent volatility is that the capital losses harvested in 2009 aren't really being depleted; enough ongoing harvesting to pay for rebalancing for the foreseeable future. So this make dividends even more annoying, with the 23.8% ...
by ogd
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 65
Views: 3791

Re: Why include International Index in AA?

Come on guys, these "Why not 100% of the asset slice that's outperformed recently" threads, which I'll christen YNAHPASOR (TM), are really getting old. I look at those 5y performance graphs and I can't help thinking that one of these things looks a lot more expensive than the other for me,...
by ogd
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why include International Index in AA?
Replies: 39
Views: 2562

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Sorry, I was in fact really comparing apples to oranges - or those who take the dividends compared to companies that buyback shares and the shareholders somehow think this "enriches" them, because this is the general consensus and what you suggest above is not something most shareholders ...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 65
Views: 3791

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Unless you are the one that sells their shares back to IBM it is NOTHING like a dividend. The company can buy back shares right up until the time it goes bankrupt and if you don't sell any of your shares you will get nothing! fd FD: see my message above. This is no different than reinvesting divide...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 65
Views: 3791

Re: Bond fund, why such high returns?

Thanks for all the responses. The more I read about it the more confusing it gets... I would like to invest in a bond fund with as less risk as possible but I have no idea which fund is best. Should I take a fund that only has longterm bonds or one with short term bonds? Why is the fund in my post ...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund, why such high returns?
Replies: 13
Views: 1518

Re: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing

I like the metaphor of picking a line at the supermarket. You can look at all the relevant factors (number of people in line, number of items in their baskets, how much are items w/o barcodes such as fresh produce, etc.) and make a decision. But then the lady in front of you pulls out a wad of coup...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing
Replies: 35
Views: 3704

Re: question about "avoid buying the dividend"

bhsince87 wrote:I think it's also possible that if you haven't owned the shares at least 60 days, the dividend could be taxed as regular income, and not at the lower rate for qualified dividends.

You can round up the 60 days after buying, I believe.
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about "avoid buying the dividend"
Replies: 11
Views: 989

Re: Why include International Index in AA?

What about other factors besides just currency risk? Why hold Apple and not Samsung? Why hold Ford but not Toyota? Why hold Wells Fargo but not HSBC? +1 To which I would add: why hold nothing and not BHP Billiton? For many of these companies, the country of listing is sort of an accident of history...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why include International Index in AA?
Replies: 39
Views: 2562

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

The world would be a very weird place if the expected return on bonds would be higher than emerging market stocks, by any measure. Yes, this is all about risk. You're comparing something that dropped 60% in half a year in 2008 vs something that was basically immune. -60% sure puts that extra 1%/year...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 10
Views: 1219

Re: question about "avoid buying the dividend"

I guess this just doesn't seem like a big deal to me. If you are a buy and hold investor and buy TSM, you will end up paying taxes on dividend distributions that occur quarterly. Delaying your investing decision because of a dividend payment just seems like kicking the can down the road. Yes, this ...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about "avoid buying the dividend"
Replies: 11
Views: 989

Re: selling RSU immediately

Is the recommendation to sell immediately when it vests the same for all companies or would you offer different advice if your friend worked at one of these types of strong tech companies? My logic tells me it's the same and they should always sell. Of course! If I thought people working at these &...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: selling RSU immediately
Replies: 21
Views: 1916

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Buybacks are investments. They may give a positive return; however, they can also give a negative return if the company is overpaying for the stock. Stock buybacks are money paid to shareholders. They are very much like dividends that you might take optionally at capital gains rates, or reinvest wi...
by ogd
Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 65
Views: 3791

Re: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)

Can you go and heckle? And film the whole thing? That would be awesome. I wouldn't go on principle, because I'd get paid from profits extracted from the retirement funds of other (hapless) attendees. You could say that they'd get ripped off anyway, but the cost of my dinner lowers their profit margi...
by ogd
Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)
Replies: 68
Views: 4042

Re: Sharebuilder, large account bonus - Good funds to use?

Vanguard does not play the same game of buying customers. I'm always ready to be bought. We, the owners of Vanguard, are not ready to buy you. In fact, we welcome your likely use of our funds at other brokers, reducing the account administration costs we pay to VBS but still contributing fairly to ...
by ogd
Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sharebuilder, large account bonus - Good funds to use?
Replies: 29
Views: 1053

Re: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

It's the same risk, really--it just shows up in different situations. I would say that I think it is far more likely that one would need to sell their own individual bonds early than it is that 75% of investors would suddenly bail on, say, VG Intermediate Term Tax Exempt. Well, yes and no. First of...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1224

Re: Limited Term Tax Exempt as a spot for short term savings

At 0.36%, there is no reason for any small investor to consider this fund, with 1% savings accounts available. Even the Limited Term fund at 0.80% is something I'd skip over a savings account. You get a little extra for a lot more risk and it's just not worth it when you're getting a deal some much...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Limited Term Tax Exempt as a spot for short term savings?
Replies: 24
Views: 2373

Re: Advice sought for $6M investment

Makes sense. Still, the loss by lower yields is more abstract than looking at your 6 million shrink in your vanguard account. That's about the only advantage, yes. And the illusion would quickly dissipate if you needed to sell one of these things, and on top of the rate loss you lost a few more ten...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice sought for $6M investment
Replies: 36
Views: 3684

Re: Advice sought for $6M investment

Fair enough but you can lose money in a bond fund if rates rise correct (NAV decreases) ?? If you buy individual bonds you cannot lose money if you hold to maturity. You lose money by not getting higher yields. Same amount, to the penny. It's just that the fund (or market value of individual bonds,...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice sought for $6M investment
Replies: 36
Views: 3684

Re: Advice sought for $6M investment

The plan looks really good, except I too would consider a state municipal fund for half of the bond index investment, given your tax bracket. I limit my own muni investments to 50% of fixed income, even at the cost of tax efficiency, so I wouldn't recommend more to others either. Do not use individu...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice sought for $6M investment
Replies: 36
Views: 3684

Re: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. O

Not because the percentage of Treasuries is such-and-such, but because it's fixed at 50%, whereas TBM will drift over time, albeit slowly, depending on government policies. I don't think that's exactly correct. I see that on the fund profile page the product summary says "This index fund offer...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. OK?
Replies: 14
Views: 754

Re: Attending/Resident Physician Couple - Porfolio Review

Excellent advice above, but I too would not pay down a 3.5% mortgage. The fact that they may be moving is not a problem. It is increasing their net worth in the form of reducing their debt liability. And even at that low rate, paying down the mortgage still gives them an absolutely guranteed rate of...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Attending/Resident Physician Couple - Porfolio Review
Replies: 20
Views: 3031

Re: Alternative Investments!

I am thinking about some I Bonds, but might wait until interest rates rise to get a higher set rate for these. Anybody have any ideas about good alternative investments that might be good not or even sometime down the road? I think I Bonds are such a good deal comparatively that one should not cons...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments!
Replies: 5
Views: 483

Re: Bond investing.

The best way is to trust that the market is pricing risk and return properly and in isolation they are equally good deals. Don't try to outsmart the average of thousands of professional bond investors, which is even better than any of them separately. In a portfolio, things change and safer bonds be...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond investing.
Replies: 3
Views: 284

Re: Limited Term Tax Exempt as a spot for short term savings

The SEC yield on Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt is a little low at 0.28%, but note that the Distribution yield is 0.68%. In the case of the Admiral Shares the SEC yield is 0.36% with the Distribution yield at 0.76%. At 0.36%, there is no reason for any small investor to consider this fund, with 1% ...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Limited Term Tax Exempt as a spot for short term savings?
Replies: 24
Views: 2373

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

Though again let's hope to live to see how the Japan debt mountain is resolved, if it's not 'political' to discuss that (because it's Japan, you assume I'm not from Japan I take it?), to see if a floating fiat monetary system insures the long term safety of JGB's starting from 250% debt/GDP ratio. ...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3821

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

1-3. Yes the whole point is that your theory means there can't be severe prolonged deflation. The point isn't that I'm saying any particular level of inflation would be caused by govt monetizing its debt, but it is *inflationary* relative to the scenario where it doesn't take such monetizing action...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3821

Re: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

The article also makes the mistake of conflating income and return. Between these two Treasuries: 8/15/2019 3.625 110.2500 110.3125 -0.2813 1.405 8/15/2019 8.125 131.5781 131.5938 -0.3125 1.335 It really doesn't matter to me if the fund "has to" sell the second and buy the first; they are ...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1224

Re: 2 Fund Portfolio...which Bond fund?

Total Bond Market is safe, cheap, large and very available in 401k's. Intermediate funds are appropriate for most portfolios. For high equity allocations (80%+), long term bonds can also work well, but they have considerably higher volatility that would hurt the efficiency of lower equity portfolios...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Fund Portfolio...which Bond fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds

What would you see as the Boglehead way to seek a fairly safe exposure to bonds for investors in the Eurozone? The rates on safe Euro bonds are so low right now that I would keep doing what it sounds like you're doing, which is find good deals in safe banks. I would not overweight stocks for this r...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 596

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

Your quote omitted and ignored my statement in the previous paragraph that some might claim a persistent deflation in USD is impossible, and it would be for the reason I took as obvious but you now state explicitly: the theory that the US govt would have to inflate to pay off debt if it couldn't pa...
by ogd
Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3821

Re: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. O

This is a great fund; perhaps the only one that might be better than Total Bond Market. Not because the percentage of Treasuries is such-and-such, but because it's fixed at 50%, whereas TBM will drift over time, albeit slowly, depending on government policies. You don't see it showing up in discussi...
by ogd
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. OK?
Replies: 14
Views: 754

Re: Rebalancing with dividends

This is probably silly but when I look at the transaction history showing individual purchases for a fund, I prefer to have fewer of them and I like having them in round numbers. It's just easier for me to visualize. +1 Particularly in a taxable account, these also have to make their way into a tax...
by ogd
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing with dividends
Replies: 9
Views: 1134

Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?

I have always found the "age in bonds" discussions a bit bizarre. Your age as such MEANS NOTHING from an investment point of view. It is a useless factoid. It is being used as a proxy for life expectancy by people whose Victorian delicacy prohibits talking about death. . So the question i...
by ogd
Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2914

Re: ETF or index fund as merchant deposit account?

The obvious problem is that ETFs take 3 days to settle. Sale proceeds are unavailable till then. The other problem is the one you mention, safety. Anything making reasonable yields right now has the potential to undo years of those yields overnight, or worse. You should use money market accounts, it...
by ogd
Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ETF or index fund as merchant deposit account?
Replies: 2
Views: 139

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

garland: very well said! The one thing I'd add is one can prevent "safe instruments being bid up" by holding some longer term Treasuries, or in the short end of the spectrum being able to retreat to 0% cash, which individual investors always are unlike institutional investors who might not...
by ogd
Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3821

Re: need advice for bond fund in taxable low income high as

Thanks for that reminder, David. I keep forgetting that the percentage threshold applies to the Treasury tax discount, not just the proportion of in-state munis. It doesn't affect me personally because my taxable bond investments in taxable are either CDs or Treasuries, but I'll keep it in mind for ...
by ogd
Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need advice for bond fund in taxable low income high assets
Replies: 16
Views: 1290

Re: Stocks as long term investments

Michael_Fisher1 wrote:Do you see potential for CSCO and MSFT? they are both cheap now. i favor tech stocks too

Michael: respectfully, this is probably the wrong forum for such questions. Try seekingalpha.com. What we can do here is present arguments for why you should not be investing in MSFT and CSCO separately.
by ogd
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3680

Re: Stocks as long term investments

because you are simply putting more money in J&J than its market cap would indicate. Off topic from the OP, but a genuine question - if I've $20,000 to add to stocks and I fancy tilting to tech sector stocks, why should I drop three times as much into MSFT than as much invested into Cisco simpl...
by ogd
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3680

Re: LASTPASS Password Program

Thanks for the reply. I guess I can try that, but now I need to know/store a good master password. Suggestions? There's an old thread with some file that worked on Window XP but that's not an option anymore for storing a master password. I guess I could just memorize something, probably with 10 or ...
by ogd
Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LASTPASS Password Program
Replies: 28
Views: 2685

Re: Stocks as long term investments

I know you guys aren't big fans of investing in individual stocks but i feel some diversification in a few stocks can be good for the long term. My uncle put $8K in J and J in the 80s and was able to pay for my cousins college tuition with his earnings. This isn't diversification, it's concentratio...
by ogd
Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3680

Re: How does Vanguard shield ETF shareholders from turnover

How does this all play out with funds where the holdings are less liquid -- say, international small cap or fixed income? Wouldn't the bid/ask spreads of the individual positions within a fund make a greater difference to the ETF investor who wouldn't bear those costs with another ETF provider? Sim...
by ogd
Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Vanguard shield ETF shareholders from turnover cost
Replies: 20
Views: 1426
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