Search found 3900 matches

by ogd
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about avoiding a wash sale
Replies: 7
Views: 303

Re: Question about avoiding a wash sale

Conventional thinking is that to avoid a wash sale when selling at a loss, you can sell shares of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index and immediately use the entire proceeds to buy an S&P 500 Index fund - a similar, but different fund. Rather than use all the proceeds to purchase the S&P 500 ...
by ogd
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???
Replies: 20
Views: 1125

Re: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???

209south: the 100bps is in much longer TIPS than the fund. So you are taking a lot of interest rate risk to go that high. I also think that the SEC yield of VIPSX is on the rise from lows earlier in the month (it's a 30 day average), which might close the gap to 7 year-ish bonds. Individual bonds do...
by ogd
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 66
Views: 5027

Re: 50/50 asset allocation

I agree ogd. I explained in other posts what happened during this time. Due to the fact that I don't really understand bonds even when explained in detail, I really thought the risk was the same when Warren Buffett called them dangerous. I figured, if they are going to be just as risky without any ...
by ogd
Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Minimums for Fund Purchases
Replies: 8
Views: 217

Re: Minimums for Fund Purchases

Per fund and per account. So your Roth will have to start with Investor shares despite what you have in other accounts, and at least $3000 of that. However, don't sweat the Admiral qualification for index funds. The maximum that it can cost you for Total Stock Market, for example, is $12/year. Any l...
by ogd
Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 37
Views: 1525

Re: A bit of gold?

Great point! 1981-2015 shows gold actually lowering risk-adjusted returns. An investor would have been strictly better off with a simpler portfolio of stocks and bonds. If 35 years can miss the "gold premium", any premium is probably just speculative. Yes. Gold shows humongous volatility ...
by ogd
Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 38
Views: 1673

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

It's mainly because any news received result in a pro-rated adjustment covering the difference that the news seems to make over a very long period of time. The market doesn't like to slowly leak "losses" (slightly smaller returns in one stock or sector or country) over time; instead, it wa...
by ogd
Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at dividend paying stocks
Replies: 34
Views: 2820

Re: Another look at dividend paying stocks

Maybe dividend investing has something to do with a preference for a "bird in the hand" (dividends) rather than a "bird in the bush" (hoped-for capital gains)? Maybe also it has to do with management having an obligation to share some of their profits with the actual owners of t...
by ogd
Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond prices
Replies: 11
Views: 812

Re: Bond prices

2--What does it mean to say that a bond's (or bond mutual fund's) price includes interest rate increase projections? I hope I have posed these questions correctly. The simpler explanation you might be looking for is that "interest rates" (as seen on TV) are overnight Fed rates, i.e. zero ...
by ogd
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

Maybe it is because I use too much leverage, but I mainly look at returns after adjusting for the risk free rate. If we move permanently to a higher interest rate level in the US, there is no reason to expect that the returns of the treasuries will ever return to positive after been beaten down by ...
by ogd
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: FWD vs AWD (Vehicle)
Replies: 60
Views: 2296

Re: FWD vs AWD (Vehicle)

AWD is better, no question about it.

The police recognizes it too: http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/roadinfo/chcontrl.htm . If nothing else, it's nice to be able to skip the chains in R1 conditions which seem to be more frequent than the others.
by ogd
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 66
Views: 5027

Re: 50/50 asset allocation

I wonder why Vanguard doesn't offer a 50/50 all in one fund. Do you think 60/40 is a good compromise if that is the route I want to go. I personally think the Vanguard retirement Income funds with only 30% in stocks is not enough to keep up with inflation and/or leave some behind to your heirs and ...
by ogd
Mon Jul 27, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

It's true that the hedging may introduce a lot of variability, but there's no way that this could be incorporated into a linear duration/yield framework. One possible way in which the SEC yield helps is if you take the very conservative view that you cannot expect any particular returns from hedgin...
by ogd
Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

SEC yield seems basically useless for this fund. People in this thread are making a lot of conclusions about whether to invest in it based on its lower SEC yield and longer duration than Total Bond Market. Maybe I should start a new thread to get some more attention. I wouldn't call it useless beca...
by ogd
Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at dividend paying stocks
Replies: 34
Views: 2820

Re: Another look at dividend paying stocks

I also find what is often glossed over is the question that is raised by individuals that if you are able to generate enough income from dividends, you don't need to sell the underlying stock to support your lifestyle whereas if you dont have that regular income from dividends or bond coupons then ...
by ogd
Sun Jul 26, 2015 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will baby boomer withdrawals effect future market performance
Replies: 5
Views: 841

Re: will baby boomer withdrawals effect future market performance

Long ago, I asked an advisor whether I should time a particular grant to fall just after a particularly important vesting date. This was a selloff much sharper than we could expect from our baby boomers. Without even thinking much, he told me: "This is very basic stuff. The market already knows...
by ogd
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV
Replies: 13
Views: 780

Re: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV

The big fear has been that rising interest rates will cause a mass exodus and severe liquidity problems in the bond market - particularly for large mutual funds - too many sellers. I think this is the first time I've heard a hypothesis that rising rates would cause more buyers in bonds... but hey, ...
by ogd
Sun Jul 26, 2015 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

Bonds are the less risky part of my portfolio. I have trouble including riskier stuff there, unless I better understand the risk and its size. You mean like unhedged international bonds? Without currency hedging, currency volatility would dominate the comparatively lower volatility of the bonds the...
by ogd
Sun Jul 26, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV
Replies: 13
Views: 780

Re: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV

Sometimes this timing is legitimate. If the instrument you're using an alternative is not accessible to the market at large, like bank CDs or Stable Value funds, then it isn't as much "market timing" as "good deal hunting". Nothing forbids pricing discrepancies that the market i...
by ogd
Sun Jul 26, 2015 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Currency risk with ETFs (VOO vs VUSA vs HKG:3140)
Replies: 1
Views: 142

Re: Currency risk with ETFs (VOO vs VUSA vs HKG:3140)

I can't comment on your tax/withholding questions, but: From what I read so far, non-US investors overseas are advised to buy the VUSA over the VOO on this forum. However if I intend on making monthly purchases, this would mean I need to convert my HKD to GBP every month which would subject me to cu...
by ogd
Sun Jul 26, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV
Replies: 13
Views: 780

Re: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV

Yes, I think they would become much more attractive. When you hear someone fantasizing about a 10% drop in intermediate bonds, ask them if you think bonds yielding 4% will find no buyers. I mean, 4% is already a different "rate environment". I think many retirees / conservative investors w...
by ogd
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

A mortgage at present rates has roughly half as much duration as maturity, because you're forced to pay all that principal along the way... If you pay the mortgage off in full, according to payment schedule, that is true. Very few people pay off, for instance, a 30-year mortgage according to its am...
by ogd
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

Sure! Using the same average duration of TBM as the bond fund duration. To be fair, I will suggest a longer duration than I otherwise would have suggested of 14 years, as the mortgage has 14 years left on it. Spreading the interest increase over that 14 years (evenly as is reasonable so as not to m...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

What is going to be more difficult is in the mortgage pre-payment scenario, ascertaining what the value would be at the end, Oh, I definitely don't want to deal with such complications. Instead, I'd simply model the mortgage payment as a zero coupon bond of half the maturity. (A mortgage at present...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

It is bonds (in general -- none of this is specific to funds) that are guaranteed to go up faster after a drop, at least if they're safe enough, because bond value declines automatically mean higher yield starting at that very moment. This is the main mechanism of bond safety despite interest rate ...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] Is credit risk exaggerated?
Replies: 20
Views: 1174

Re: [Original Research] Is credit risk exaggerated?

But if price is supposed to be the net present value of future dividends, why does the market price high yield bonds with more volatility than safe bonds? That price difference seems to be entirely arbitrary when the stream of dividends is actually quite stable and still higher than the safe bond. ...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

I am very interested to see that computation! And I agree that if interest rates rise sharply, TBM would THEN outperform the mortgage payment. I will note two things. First, I am anticipating a long, drawn out, slow rising interest rate environment. I might do it tomorrow. Can you give me a few sce...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

The point is that individual bonds can simply be held and not traded. Yes, but the "holding" (and the resultant recovery in value) cannot produce more than the new market yields, 3% in my example. In that environment, it's no big deal to get 3%, therefore the 'holding" is not some bi...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] Is credit risk exaggerated?
Replies: 20
Views: 1174

Re: [Original Research] Is credit risk exaggerated?

If you ignore price volatility and just focus on dividends, it looks like "credit risk" is grossly exaggerated. But you can't ignore price volatility in the presence of alternatives like stocks. Instead of thinking of the volatility as insignificant, one could instead take that volatility...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

It is not a fear of bonds, actually. In reality, it is the rational view that in a rising interest rate environment, it is most likely that bond funds (but not individual bonds) are going to lose money. This slow loss of money over time will likely result in a net negative. For that reason, I tried...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

However, the 3.85% pre-tax that you earn by paying down the mortgage provides a higher after-tax, guaranteed return of 2.58%--at least considering only federal taxes, so that's probably a better approach, assuming you don't need the liquidity of the fixed income. Yes, but one shouldn't discount the...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1404

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

Oddly enough, drastic drops in stocks never bothered be because I presume they will go up again (and buy as much as I can when they are down). The slow bleed of a rising interest rate environment in regards to bond funds is too much stress for me, and I cannot sleep well at night with that situatio...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment
Replies: 18
Views: 2020

Re: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment

Are you confusing interest rate and yield? Yield as in YTM is more important if you are an active investor. If you buy and hold, the coupon rate is more important. Personally, I stay the course so I don't pay a lot of attention to YTM or SEC 30 day yield. I bought long ago so what I have is what it...
by ogd
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment
Replies: 18
Views: 2020

Re: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment

b) 70% stocks / 30% physical cash, stuffed in a fireproof safe, with lots of termite spray nearby. This one. A bank deposit box is a good alternative, rates not tied to yields because they don't know how much is in there. But I don't think it will ever come to that, for two reasons. One is that for...
by ogd
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2062

Re: Help buying LEAPs

... If it does not go down, then I am not out anything. ... If the stock goes up, my order may execute, if not then no loss. Actually, both of these should be counted as opportunity losses that completely balance out the good deal you might have gotten on the other side of the "if". It's ...
by ogd
Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

Don't underestimate the benefit of having a 3rd party to implement the hedge, creating a separation of currency risk from credit risk. USD-denominated emerging market sovereign bonds have an opaque, de facto uncollateralized currency hedge builtin. Deterioration of credit quality usually causes out...
by ogd
Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

With counterparty hedging, it is a zero sum gane between counterparties. If a currency rises, 1 side has more than they are entitled to receive by exactly the amount of loss that needs to be covered on the other side. The hedge bank just has to contractually collateralize the assets being hedged so...
by ogd
Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

I thought most of the bonds in the Total Int, were government bonds at least that is what Vanguard says, in that case wouldn't the middle man be said government so not really a middleman? While the country of Japan or any other country could see debt failure, so can the US. And while Japan could se...
by ogd
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3062

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

I may still tinker with this, but ultimately it looks like there is no free lunch in PE market timing models. I have seen evidence using short periods like 2000-2010 that show they work, but that's just data mining. Using the full 135 year data set does not support the hypothesis that PE market tim...
by ogd
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Tax Reporting?
Replies: 8
Views: 686

Re: Stock Tax Reporting?

I always do this. It wasn't my idea, it was TurboTax. I think it's very much fine, not so much because I never got in any trouble with the IRS, but because TurboTax, with millions of customers, happily uses VARIOUS without even a warning.
by ogd
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TRRKX (TDF) outperforms the Vanguard 3 fund ??
Replies: 6
Views: 955

Re: TRRKX (TDF) outperforms the Vanguard 3 fund ??

I currently have TRRKX in my 401k and I ran some historical numbers using backtest portfolio asset allocation site. The returns were higher over a 10 year period using the TDF rather than the 3 fund. Does that sound accurate? Also, I think it factors in ER when giving the annual returns. TRRKX is v...
by ogd
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

The structure doesn't allay my fears that much. What if the USD rallies, Toyota can't pay, and as a result of many Toyotas the "organization implementing the hedge" can't pay Vanguard These are fair value hedges not cash flow hedges so the counterparties own the assets being hedged. There...
by ogd
Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics and timing for sale of employer stock
Replies: 5
Views: 274

Re: Mechanics and timing for sale of employer stock

Sell immediately. Your instincts (well, part of them) about timing and long-term limit orders are right. You could use short term limit orders if liquidity looks bad (large bid-ask spreads), but don't try to use them to recover a day's drop. The stock did that for a reason, and you have no business ...
by ogd
Tue Jul 21, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Redux-APPL and Other Techs
Replies: 10
Views: 583

Re: Portfolio Redux-APPL and Other Techs

So no one talks trades? If that is the case, then I will drop by from time to time to see what is going on, but I will have to go elsewhere to find what I need. Thank you much. You will probably find some discussion partners, but this being the forum that it is (see: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki...
by ogd
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The X Factor?
Replies: 6
Views: 431

Re: The X Factor?

It's been a while since I've posted here. Is posting links frowned upon, or do I just seem like a shady character? :shock: The link is suspiciously verbose and you don't have much of a posting history. Often, this means referral spam -- e.g. like posting amazon links that give a kickback to a "...
by ogd
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The true cost of high expenses
Replies: 2
Views: 1030

Re: The true cost of high expenses

If you have a low cost fund producing X amount of interest and a high cost fund trying to compete, the only option for the higher cost fund is to increase the risk. One way that shows up is in volatility. So the riskier fund may not necessarily have lower returns, but it will definitely have to hav...
by ogd
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I get out of personal stocks - Did
Replies: 11
Views: 1073

Re: Should I get out of personal stocks - Did

I have about $6k in various stocks in total portfolio of $130k and each of them has turned me a nice tidy profit. Did I just luck out with my timing and stock selection. Or dare I think I am a good stock picker? Here is what I have and the results. T - down 6% AAPL - Up 53% F - Up 33.3% GILD - Up 1...
by ogd
Mon Jul 20, 2015 8:04 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Easy way to quote multiple posts?
Replies: 5
Views: 519

Re: Easy way to quote multiple posts?

You also can't link to a post from this view, at least not with the proper links. ogd - What do you mean "link to a post from this view." I mean a link like this, to my previous post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=169919&newpost=2560676#p2560629 . You can't ...
by ogd
Mon Jul 20, 2015 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6662

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

There is credit risk from the govts issuing the bonds, but that's the nature of bonds. If you aren't comfortable with that, you shouldn't care about the hedging anyway, as you dhould avoid the fund. I am not at all worried about the Japanese government's ability to pay yen, as I mentioned. Slightly...
by ogd
Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:52 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Easy way to quote multiple posts?
Replies: 5
Views: 519

Re: Easy way to quote multiple posts?

Is there an easy way to quote multiple posts in your reply? Right now I open each one in a new tab, then copy and paste to a single reply box. I'm hoping there is a less tedious method. Yes: just scroll down below your reply and click quote as many times as needed for the respective post. You can a...
by ogd
Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 4561

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

well, the chart I listed above appeared to me to be a "growth" chart. That is the growth of an investment over time (I assumed dividends were reinvested. Perhaps that's not correct). I don't think that is correct. The chart first posted is indeed a total return chart, with dividend reinve...

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