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Re: Backpedaling: Rising Equity Allocation During Retiremen

Good for Dr. Pfau. The previous paper, by Kitces and Pfau, was properly stated. In my opinion, they made it clear that this was a fairly weak effect, based on various carefully assumptions. One of the big ones is only mentioned in an aside: "the clear caveat and concern of this approach is that...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backpedaling: Rising Equity Allocation During Retirement
Replies: 24
Views: 1478

Re: Vanguard becominng more assertive with boards WSJ

This is good news and I'm happy to hear it. I'm sure John C. Bogle will be pleased so, as he's made his views plain on many occasions--was this in The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism ? Any step in this direction, even symbolic, will have a salutory effect. Vanguard has claimed that they have, in t...
by nisiprius
Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard becominng more assertive with boards WSJ
Replies: 9
Views: 1602

Re: Vanguard Energy Fund (VGNEX) - Cheap Enough Yet?

How do you know that it is "cheap?"

The fact that a price has been lowered does not mean that it is cheap, unless you know that the item has not changed, or at least that its value has not diminished.
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy Fund (VGNEX) - Cheap Enough Yet?
Replies: 14
Views: 1512

Re: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video form

Indeed. With photographs, for example, I am constantly vacillating between saying "let's just scan the good ones" and saying "it is taking more time to decide which to scan than just to scan them all."
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video format?
Replies: 14
Views: 744

Re: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video form

I'm coming at this as a professional, so my concerns might be greater than most, but if you are really serious about quality for archival purposes then I would recommend using the highest quality codec you think you are willing to store on hard drives. H264 is widely used because it was designed fo...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video format?
Replies: 14
Views: 744

Re: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video form

And m4v is just a subset of mp4. In other words, it's just a mp4 container where the video codec has to be H.264. If the m4v file has no DRM, then it's a valid mp4 file... And Handbrake is a popular video converter for creating m4v files. I have Handbrake, but was a little flustered about whether i...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video format?
Replies: 14
Views: 744

Re: The Blind Forecaster

Investing might well be a "social science." I have great respect for anthropologists, sociologists, linguists, educators, etc. However, nobody would expect an anthropologist to make a quantitative prediction of what percentage of Americans will kiss on the cheek as a greeting in 2025. Nobo...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 27
Views: 2035

What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video format?

So I'm in the process of trying to re-copy and re-transfer all my older video. Since .mp3 is a safe, ubiquitous, platform-neutral format for audio, I just sort of assumed .mp4 would be a safe choice for video. Also, the fact that my Sony digital camera saves video in this format made me think it mus...
by nisiprius
Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the most ubiquitous, platform-neutral video format?
Replies: 14
Views: 744

Re: Taylor Larimore Honored

Congratulations, Taylor.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor Larimore Honored
Replies: 56
Views: 4192

Re: The Blind Forecaster

John C. Bogle, The Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation, 2012:

"But investing is not a science."
Image
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 27
Views: 2035

Re: Where's your Will?

Lawyer's office and an insecure location at home. The goal is for people to find it quickly when needed.

Why would it need to be in a "safe" or other secure location? It's of no value to a thief and if lost for any reason it easily be replaced.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where's your Will?
Replies: 41
Views: 2002

Re: More intl exposure in Life Strategy Growth - drop out of

1) How does your daughter feel about it?

2) Having picked an all-in-one fund like LifeStrategy Growth, you can't expect it to be a perfect match to your own tastes. Is it really so far off?
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: More intl exposure in Life Strategy Growth - drop out of it?
Replies: 17
Views: 1570

Re: Market Beating Recipe

Step 0: figure out if you need to beat the market, and, if so, why.

I need a "market beating recipe" about as much as I need a recipe for french-fried Vegemite on a bulkie.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Beating Recipe
Replies: 19
Views: 1784

Re: Nasdaq Record High....

At that time I had a print subscription to Wired. I let it expire because I couldn't stand the typography and layout, particularly the page numbers.
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nasdaq Record High....
Replies: 25
Views: 1850

Re: [Vanguard] active funds are beating the passive index fu

How do you convince anyone not to invest in any active fund they've heard about? They look in their 401(k) plan and admire the job their plan manager is doing. Why, almost every fund has a Morningstar four or five star rating. Look down the table of 1-3-5-10 year returns, and Trusty Global Opportuni...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard] active funds are beating the passive index funds
Replies: 13
Views: 2733

Re:

...Because gold is more dense than (most) other metals, gold coins are very difficult to fake. Platinum is more dense, but, it costs more in the first place. Uranium might work, but unless you're in with the Iranians, might be difficult to obtain. I don't know of any successful attempts to counterf...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold Coins for FUN, I mean.... investing
Replies: 50
Views: 4360

Re: Managed Payout Funds

Nisiprius Can you provide the link to the VG website where I can get quotes for CPI-linked annuities. This concept fascinates me and I wanted to learn more. Haven't been able find that though. You need to have an account at Vanguard, and you need to do a complicated tapdance starting at https://inv...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managed Payout Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 321

Re: Managed Payout Funds

0) An annuity is a specific promise to pay specific numbers of dollars. That number doesn't go down, and it is guaranteed by the insurer. People argue about the degree of risk or safety represented by that guarantee, but it's a guarantee. The Managed Payout fund is quite clear in saying that nothing...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managed Payout Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 321

Re: Archival CD - MDisc

It's really easy to solve the problem for periods of up to, say, 10 years. It's really difficult to solve it robustly for 20 years. Anything longer than that is iffy. No, I don't think cloud-based solutions cut it, both because of the issue of recurring cost instead of one-time cost, but also becaus...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Archival CD - MDisc
Replies: 14
Views: 721

Re: Archival CD - MDisc

None of us have 1000 year old MDisc media to test, so we are left with hypothetical estimates. I agree with Buffalo Chuck: the durability of optical media has been wildly over-hyped. I suspect many people underestimate the life of ordinary media. I have to disagree. I have been personally bitten by...
by nisiprius
Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Archival CD - MDisc
Replies: 14
Views: 721

Re: Dividends and Market Slides

Nisiprius said: "The company that retains dividends grows faster. The company that pays dividends grows slower." Although this may have some intuitive appeal, the facts are otherwise. By "growth" I meant "capital appreciation." Perhaps your authors were referring to to...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Market Slides
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: Dividends and Market Slides

People have to realize that the 2008-2009 financial crisis was a once in a lifetime event Are you sure? Well, I am 55 years old and I hadn't seen anything like it before. I don't know about anyone else but I was really, really scared. Me, too. However, the 1937 crash was about the same depth and co...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Market Slides
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: AAA card as prepaid credit card?

...I know this isn't the answer you were looking for nisi, but it would seem as though carrying two V/MC credit cards (one backup) would be far safer than carrying a preloaded card. In regards to your second concern (b), the credit card would be safer. And in regards to your first concern (a), if y...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AAA card as prepaid credit card?
Replies: 8
Views: 643

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund

It seems weird that a mutual fund, which (I think) is a registered investment company regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, is allowed to invest in something that "is not a registered investment company and, accordingly, is not subject to the 1940 Act." But most of the thing...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1923

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund

Link to Vanguard white paper: Liquid alternatives: A better mousetrap? , August 6, 2014. Betteridge's law of headlines: any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no. So, Vanguard says High costs, disparate strategies, and middling performance have characterized the liqu...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1923

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund

It seems weird that a mutual fund, which (I think) is a registered investment company regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, is allowed to invest in something that "is not a registered investment company and, accordingly, is not subject to the 1940 Act." "...the Fund’s in...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1923

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund

...is there anything unusual about investing in funds domiciled in the Cayman Islands?... I guess it's not a "Irish" hedge fund any more, but "Caymanian" (had to look that up). "Cayman Islands" does seem to pop up in fund prospectuses (mostly for funds that do things w...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1923

Re: Favorite chocolate candy

OldOne wrote:Cadbury Creme Eggs
Oh, yes. Especially when they go on sale after Easter.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite chocolate candy
Replies: 40
Views: 2434

Re: Dividends and Market Slides

Dividends are just a kind of controlled money leak. There's nothing magic about them. What you receive in dividends is money the company can't invest in its own growth. The company that retains dividends grows faster. The company that pays dividends grows slower. In the world of the 1960s, where mut...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Market Slides
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: High Yield Corporate Bonds Have Less Interest Rate Risk?

High yield corporate bonds probably have less interest rate risk to that the extent that they are less like bonds. You'll get less of what you dislike about bonds, but you'll also get less of what you like about bonds.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Corporate Bonds Have Less Interest Rate Risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 499

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund

"Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund?" Oh, the other shoe has finally dropped. This has been in the works for five years. This is "Vanguard's Irish hedge fund," http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=52360 I never expected to hear Vanguard bragging about an expense rati...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund
Replies: 26
Views: 1923

Re: Dividends and Market Slides

Do dividend paying stocks provide any measure of protection in a market downturn? The dividend yield is relatively low, but at least it's there. Does that provide any cushioning effect? Also, does the fact that many of the dividend paying companies tend to put them in the value category? If so, val...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Market Slides
Replies: 55
Views: 3094

Re: Likely impact on equities of interest rate increase

If we believe the "dividend discount" theory of stock values, then rising interest rates ought to make stocks less valuable for the same reason they make bonds less valuable. As always "ought to" and "tend to" are unreliable.
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likely impact on equities of interest rate increase
Replies: 7
Views: 736

AAA card as prepaid credit card?

We've never paid much attention to it but a feature of our American Automobile Association (AAA card) is that it can be used as a prepaid American Express card. We may be going on vacation, which will be taking us through part of Canada. It's pretty hard to avoid using plastic on a vacation and one ...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: AAA card as prepaid credit card?
Replies: 8
Views: 643

Re: Worth switching from Ameritrade to Vanguard?

It is my personal opinion that VEU can be used as a substitute for VXUS. There are well-informed Bogleheads who will disagree. VEU was Vanguard's broadest international ETF, before they revamped the Total International and created the VXUS share class. VEU does not contain small-caps, but VXUS doesn...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worth switching from Ameritrade to Vanguard?
Replies: 13
Views: 1000

Re: Worth switching from Ameritrade to Vanguard?

A brokerage is a brokerage. Vanguard's brokerage services are OK. If you stay at Ameritrade you have to decide if you can live with $10/trade. That's not necessarily going to ruin you over a lifetime if you stay the course and don't trade; being a Boglehead does not mean elevating the very lowest co...
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worth switching from Ameritrade to Vanguard?
Replies: 13
Views: 1000

Re: Favorite chocolate candy

buckeye7983 wrote:...See's candy...
I have to ask... do you own Berkshire Hathaway stock?
by nisiprius
Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite chocolate candy
Replies: 40
Views: 2434

Re: How do I learn to like sushi?

How do you feel about sushi that only contains vegetables? They're just like a little crunchy salad with rice around them. I like it. And there is also sushi made with COOKED fish. As far as the socializing goes, you can order these and eat along with everyone else. I forget the names but every sush...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 28, 2015 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do I learn to like sushi?
Replies: 80
Views: 4467

Re: NiSIPIRIUS, could you please comment on this ??

I appreciate the compliment, thank you. I like to participate in group discussions and point out things that occur to me about mutual funds and portfolios. But when I see a specific individual portfolio and the question is directed specifically at me and nobody else , it feels too much if I'm being ...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 28, 2015 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Does anyone have comments on this growth model?]
Replies: 14
Views: 949

Re: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter

One detail that I thought was important. Certainly no news here but a nice clear confirmation of what I've believed. While Charlie and I search for new businesses to buy, our many subsidiaries are regularly making bolt-on acquisitions. ... However, the largest acquisition, Duracell, will not close u...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter
Replies: 29
Views: 2386

Re: Favorite chocolate candy

http://www.tazachocolate.com/graphics/userUploads/products/CinnamonStacked.png Taza Stone Ground Mexican-Style Chocolate--the "Chocolate Mexicano" disks. Cinnamon, if I must pick a flavor. You're supposed to use them to make liquid hot chocolate but my wife and I just eat them. There are ...
by nisiprius
Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite chocolate candy
Replies: 40
Views: 2434

Re: Turbotax 2014: Buyer Beware

Intuit VP told me there is no fix available at this time. It doesn't sound very promising, like they are even working on it. Can someone please confirm that they can print locally using H&R Block's program on a Mac? If so, I think I will just switch and give up on Intuit once and for all. I was...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turbotax 2014: Buyer Beware
Replies: 59
Views: 5764

Re: How to Invest in Gold

I am a gold skeptic and own no gold myself, 0%, none. How do you determine what % of gold should be in your AA? Is it a fixed 5% or change with your age? Do you buy physical gold and store it, or buy a gold ETF or the miners? I would prefer not to invest in bitcoins. There's a book is entitled The P...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Invest in Gold
Replies: 68
Views: 3920

Re: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."

Yes, but when you start getting into 90% losses I think you need a logarithmic measurement.
A mere 91.6% loss represents only -10.8 decibels of "wealth attenuation."
The 99.8% loss achieved by the Canarsie Capital hedge fund represents -27.0 decibels of wealth attenuation.
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."
Replies: 21
Views: 1469

Re: International is disappointing

Larry Swedroe wrote "Diversification is always working. Sometimes you will like the results and sometimes you won't." The sad truth is that that typically the "diversifier" will have long periods, like a decade or so, of continuous outperformance and similar periods of underperfo...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 72
Views: 4483

Re: Cost of medication - Costco versus Walgreens

I had the dubious honor of being diagnosed with pneumonia today. Good luck and may the antibiotic work well for you. I am on Medicare, and my Part D is the AARP sponsored United Health plan. My doctor faxed over a prescription for an antibiotic to Walgreens, and my personal responsibility for the t...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of medication - Costco versus Walgreens
Replies: 13
Views: 1021

Re: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."

...According to a recent paper divorce and marriage reduce hedge fund manager performance:... Well, the world of hedge funds--and the world of "high conviction" and "high active share" mutual funds--is just so far outside the range of things I feel equipped to deal with that it ...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."
Replies: 21
Views: 1469

Re: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."

A serious challenge. Does anyone know how to find the answer: what was the greatest loss experienced in ANY mutual fund between March 2014 and January 2015? I did a google search for "worst mutual funds 2014". The top couple of links didn't quite look on target, but this USA Today story s...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."
Replies: 21
Views: 1469

Re: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."

But not even a critic like Mr. Lack expects a hedge fund catastrophe. “They take less risk nowadays because that’s what their investors are asking for,” he said. “So hedge funds aren’t the most likely place for a blowup. There will just be endless mediocrity year after year delivered at great expen...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."
Replies: 21
Views: 1469

Re: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?

Diversifying across asset classes may provide better risk-adjusted returns. RETURN IS RETURN IS RETURN................ YOU CAN'T SPEND THE "RISK-ADJUSTMENT". You can spend it. You always have the choice of taking it as return or as risk reduction. This is very clear if you imagine a balan...
by nisiprius
Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?
Replies: 26
Views: 2013
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