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by nisiprius
Sat May 30, 2015 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee's- American Funds 5.75% Load
Replies: 9
Views: 362

Re: Mutual Fund Fee's- American Funds 5.75% Load

Morningstar growth charts don't include the effect of the load.
by nisiprius
Sat May 30, 2015 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget BND. Here's another idea...
Replies: 20
Views: 1803

Re: Forget BND. Here's another idea...

P.S. Emerging markets bonds may or may not have an acceptable risk/reward relationship, but they are not really like investment-grade bonds. If you are considering them I have one question for you: what happened to the value of emerging markets bonds and bond funds in 1997? If you don't know the ans...
by nisiprius
Sat May 30, 2015 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget BND. Here's another idea...
Replies: 20
Views: 1803

Re: Forget BND. Here's another idea...

I haven't watched the video yet, but I assume he's saying much the same thing as he and Charles Ellis said in the second, 2013 edition of "The Elements of Investing," which represented a startling 180 from the advice he had been giving for over twenty years in "A Random Walk Down Wall...
by nisiprius
Thu May 28, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?
Replies: 90
Views: 5762

Re: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?

If you include Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg in the average, how can anybody afford to complete a bachelor's degree at Harvard?
by nisiprius
Thu May 28, 2015 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Risk-Managed Momentum Outperforms
Replies: 11
Views: 1261

Re: Swedroe: Risk-Managed Momentum Outperforms

Typical verb-tense disease. Instead of "Risk-Managed Momentum Outperforms," it should be "In backtesting, in the past, risk-managed momentum strategies would have outperformed." Instead of "virtually eliminates crashes," it should be "in backtesting, in the past, t...
by nisiprius
Thu May 28, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 84
Views: 7168

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

Rad, the DCA reentry is a good idea, too. Does anyone know if you can set up an automatic monthly VG fund purchase so I don't have to be sure and stick to the plan for the next 48 months? We're totally in a VG MM right now. I don't want to have that emotional connection to moving the money each mon...
by nisiprius
Thu May 28, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 84
Views: 7168

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

Rad, the DCA reentry is a good idea, too. Does anyone know if you can set up an automatic monthly VG fund purchase so I don't have to be sure and stick to the plan for the next 48 months? We're totally in a VG MM right now. I don't want to have that emotional connection to moving the money each mon...
by nisiprius
Thu May 28, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"
Replies: 43
Views: 3283

Re: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"

I thought it was an interesting article with a reasonably good point that isn't often made. If a trendy asset class is only a small percentage of the total market, then you can't get a meaningful effect in your portfolio with a gentle "tilt"--you need to overweight them by two, three, four...
by nisiprius
Thu May 28, 2015 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Retiring" and Age Discrimination
Replies: 24
Views: 2442

Re: "Retiring" and Age Discrimination

The Wizard wrote:How does age discrimination fit in here?
Employees in their 20s and 30s probably won't be offered incentives to leave, yes.
It sounds to me as if you just answered your own question.
by nisiprius
Thu May 28, 2015 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Capitalization Flaw in Index Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1111

Re: Market Capitalization Flaw in Index Funds

Within the U.S. stock market, the possibility of distortion due to too many people buying into one mutual fund or style of mutual fund theoretically exists, even for index funds, with ONE EXCEPTION: cap-weighted total market index funds. These are the only kind of investment that cannot possibly dis...
by nisiprius
Wed May 27, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?
Replies: 90
Views: 5762

Re: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?

I can see some PhDs taking a decade or more (especially if one is really only a part-time student while working), but for those that took so long, would you agree that knowing what you know now, that the degree could have been accomplished a little faster? I suspect many of such long-term PhDs are ...
by nisiprius
Wed May 27, 2015 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Dollar ETF
Replies: 6
Views: 292

Re: Investing in Dollar ETF

...I am thinking about putting some money in a dollar ETF (Most likely WisdomTree Dollar Bullish Fund) because I think the dollar will keep on rising... I have no idea what the dollar will do, other than that it will fluctuate. I am surprised to hear you saying this, because in the forum back aroun...
by nisiprius
Wed May 27, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?
Replies: 90
Views: 5762

Re: Cost of a "free" PhD program is around half a million? How does anyone afford this?

The way you "afford" it is by not frickin' monetizing everything in sight. Once you start to do that, where does it stop? How can anyone afford to marry the person they love instead of the person with the highest net present value of future income? How can anyone afford to have kids unless...
by nisiprius
Wed May 27, 2015 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Day trading
Replies: 19
Views: 1420

Re: Day trading

http://s28.postimg.org/iioembyrh/Untitled.png During the period of time you hold a stock when you are day-trading, the company does not have enough time to do much business or have much in the way of actual earnings. Day-trading is purely about trying to make a dollar by taking it away from someone...
by nisiprius
Wed May 27, 2015 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know you hate Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 24
Views: 2001

Re: I know you hate Whole Life Insurance

Spend a little time and see if you can find any disinterested personal-finance or investment writer who says that whole life insurance is a good investment idea. The only people who recommend it are people who sell it, or who have direct connections to the industry.
by nisiprius
Wed May 27, 2015 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Power Of An Int'l Bond ETF Like ‘BNDX’
Replies: 12
Views: 1140

Re: The Power Of An Int'l Bond ETF Like ‘BNDX’

The article says: One interesting idea I’ve heard lately is that going forward, it might make sense for U.S. investors to get their core bond exposure outside of the U.S. That’s because borrowing rates outside the U.S. are likely to remain low long after the Fed starts tightening borrowing rates. Ho...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 8977

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

Most. Confusing. Pair of Charts. Ever: Barclay's U.S. Aggregate Index: http://s16.postimg.org/gck87j1ed/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_05_26_a_las_7_11_17_PM.png Barclay's U.S. Corporate Index: http://s29.postimg.org/mmqahw5jr/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_05_26_a_las_9_43_48_PM.png If you're not confused, you...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 8977

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

Interesting... this is not what I expected. According to Barclay's, the credit quality within the Aggregate Index has been getting lower over the last five years. Doc? Do you know why? Yes. It's the reaction to the 2008 financial crisis that caused the change. As I said up thread: the Government bo...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 8977

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

Interesting... this is not what I expected. According to Barclay's, the credit quality within the Aggregate Index has been getting lower over the last five years.

Doc? Do you know why?

Image
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 8977

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

The reason why government issue got to be a larger proportion of the Barclay's index is not because Barclay's changed anything about the index, it's because the bond market, or rather (in Barclay's words) "the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market" itself ...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Investment, Dave Ramsey Way?
Replies: 15
Views: 1498

Re: Roth IRA Investment, Dave Ramsey Way?

25% international 25% growth 25% aggressive growth 25% growth and income This is was Dave has always recommended, but I've never been able to figure out just what the heck he means by it. These aren't industry-standard terms as far as I'm aware. It's just a guess , but it would not surprise me if t...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance as college saving
Replies: 13
Views: 727

Re: Life insurance as college saving

Life insurance is not a good way of saving for anything. There's no magic, the life insurance company can't get a better rate on safe investments than you can. All the insurance company can do is make the product so complicated and obfuscated that you can't understand what you're getting or compare ...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Investment, Dave Ramsey Way?
Replies: 15
Views: 1498

Re: Roth IRA Investment, Dave Ramsey Way?

1) Personally, I do not like Dave Ramsey's investing advice. 2) It's your money. Ultimately you, personally need to take responsibility for how you invest it. 3) I think you should consider one of these suggestions--but you need to decide for yourself. a) Go to Vanguard's Get a Recommendation page, ...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Upcoming Economic Bubble
Replies: 35
Views: 3842

Re: Upcoming Economic Bubble

Adrian, two more thoughts. Thought #1. If you decide for yourself that you want to have a substantial holding in gold, I strongly suggest that you look into something called Harry Browne's "Permanent Portfolio." I do not use this portfolio myself, it's not my thing, this is not any kind of...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Upcoming Economic Bubble
Replies: 35
Views: 3842

Re: Upcoming Economic Bubble

I never take any important actions based on macroeconomic predictions. Nobody know the macroeconomic future well enough. In order for your uncle's advice to work, three things all need to unfold as planned: first, the currency must plummet. Second, there must be a recession. Third, the price of gold...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the higher ER winning?
Replies: 6
Views: 1230

Re: Why is the higher ER winning?

I don't have any answer for you but wish to point out three things: 1) Selection or hindsight or survivor bias. I have an actual question: why are you asking about this particular fund? How did you come to hear about it? Dollars to doughnuts, it's because it attracted attention by having been an out...
by nisiprius
Tue May 26, 2015 4:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $4500 reasonable for wills for blended family and some trusts?
Replies: 38
Views: 1971

Re: $4500 reasonable for wills for blended family and some trusts?

Divide the question into two. 1) Is $450/hour a reasonable hourly rate? 2) Is 10 hours the amount of time it is likely to take? My answers: 1) Yeah, it probably is if it's a senior person and the work is going to require a fair amount of personal attention--he is really going to be sitting down and ...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First in four part series on four big bank active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1172

Re: First in four part series on four big bank active funds

The four-factor analysis also shows that seven of the nine GSAM funds generated annual alphas – although again, only three were greater than or equal to 0.5%. The average annual alpha was 0.34%. Yet again, only one fund had alpha that was statistically significant at the 5% level. Larry, please not...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Teaching maths to a 4 year old
Replies: 31
Views: 2383

Re: Teaching maths to a 4 year old

Don't forget these.
Image
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Teaching maths to a 4 year old
Replies: 31
Views: 2383

Re: Teaching maths to a 4 year old

Dear Lord. My parents never did any of this stuff, and I survived and did well in school. The poor kids. Can't they just play? Yes, it's too advanced for a four-year-old, but I think back to when I was ten or eleven and used to play Monopoly with friends. Nobody ever told us it was educational, and...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2015 1:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Memorial Day
Replies: 18
Views: 1096

Re: Memorial Day

Thank you for your service, Taylor.

(I'm old enough to remember when it was called "Decoration Day.")
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The end of the nest egg
Replies: 30
Views: 7075

Re: The end of the nest egg

There are any number of retirement calculators online that will provide a simulation of how long an investor's nest egg will last. Enter your total principal, your desired monthly or yearly withdrawals, your rate of return and by what percentage you want to increase your withdrawals to account for ...
by nisiprius
Mon May 25, 2015 5:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When is it safe to share financial details with gf, future wife
Replies: 53
Views: 4669

Re: When is it safe to share financial details with gf, future wife

It's hard to think rationally about this. I guess the thing you need to think through is what do you mean by "safe" and what exactly are the risks? This will sound like a joke, and it 99% is, but one extreme scenario is that one member of the couple is a gold-digger and the affection is pr...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5346

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Let's say it is 2008-2009. Let's say we had an absolute guarantee, from someone who could see inside the black box that is generating stock market data, that the stock market follows a pattern with a known statistical distribution and known parameters. Maybe it's not as tame as a Statistics 101 norm...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to sell a large statue?
Replies: 34
Views: 2616

Re: How to sell a large statue?

I have very little to add here, except to say that I once sold an item for $6,000 through Sotheby's--$6,000 is what I actually netted, after the auctioneer's commission, while the buyer paid something like $10,500. Anyway, Sotheby's was able to sell it and I was moderately happy with the transaction...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market bond funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1298

Re: Emerging market bond funds

...Does anyone have an informed opinion of the risk and returns of emerging market bonds going forward? .... No, but I have a fact about its risk in the past: it dropped 40% in less than two months in 1998. And the the Total Stock Market dropped 57% from October 2007 to March 2009. Did this make yo...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market bond funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1298

Re: Emerging market bond funds

...Does anyone have an informed opinion of the risk and returns of emerging market bonds going forward? .... No, but I have a fact about its risk in the past: it dropped 40% in less than two months in 1998. Source: Morningstar http://s4.postimg.org/r4xgr1n9p/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_05_24_a_las_6_0...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NASDAQ Index Fund
Replies: 3
Views: 465

Re: NASDAQ Index Fund

My reason for using an index fund is to own the stock market, all of it; to be on both sizes of every speculative transaction; to tie my personal wagon to the collective success of stock-issuing businesses; and not to seek to take money away from other speculators by outwitting them in a zero-sum ga...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 746
Views: 108099

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Very interesting the fact that it took quite a while for their achievements to be recognized by their own country. They were feted and made heroes in France before they were recognized in their own country. The Wright Brothers Hardcover – May 5, 2015 by David McCullough ... Very interesting the fac...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5346

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Warren Buffett [said:]...Recall, if you will, the pundits who six years ago bemoaned falling stock prices and advised investing in “safe” Treasury bills or bank certificates of deposit... Typical Buffett. In point of fact, I can't remember the pundits saying this six years ago, at least not that an...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5346

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

The people who make a big deal of saying "volatility is not risk" always seem to me to be people who are trying to overcome sales resistance to volatile investments. Either you can play games with the word "risk" or you can adopt a common definition. If we are going to play games...
by nisiprius
Sun May 24, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why government bonds at all?
Replies: 55
Views: 3976

Re: Why government bonds at all?

...The relative performance of the mostly-corporate Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade bond fund (blue) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury bond fund (orange) during 2008-2009 shows that pragmatic capitalists had more confidence in the Treasury than in corporations to pay their bil...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2015 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 746
Views: 108099

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Haven't finished Count Belisarius by Robert Graves, but have also started We , by Yegeni Zamyatin--an $0.99 Kindle edition translated by one Clarence Brown. I'm not quite sure whether it's good or not, but it's fairly readable and not too long, and one of those things that's been on my to-read list ...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why government bonds at all?
Replies: 55
Views: 3976

Re: Why government bonds at all?

Bonds aren't participation in anything . They are just a bill the issuer has to pay. You judge whether you want to lend money depending on how much they are willing to pay you to do it, and how confident you are that the issuer can pay their bills. If you believe the ratings: S&P's AA+, Moody's ...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Vanguard automatically convert to Admiral class shares?
Replies: 34
Views: 3345

Re: Will Vanguard automatically convert to Admiral class shares?

It's fully automatic but it sometimes takes a while.

Perhaps it has to be done manually by someone at Vanguard and it takes them a while to get around to it, or something like that.
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2015 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3421

Re: Why not overweight international?

With regard to international stocks offering better inflation protection, we can look at this directly. The period 1970-1983 covers the last part of the "Death of Equities" era, when, according to BusinessWeek The one rule whose demise did the stock market in could be summed up thus: By bu...
by nisiprius
Sat May 23, 2015 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3421

Re: Why not overweight international?

...For the typical US investor, what matters is the investor's future purchasing power, not the future number of dollars in the investor's account. If currency movements match inflation then they actually help the investor since they reduce the risk in terms of the investor's purchasing power even ...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Factors: Variance Skewness Kurtosis
Replies: 9
Views: 1200

Re: Risk Factors: Variance Skewness Kurtosis

skewness/kurtosis proxies framework diminished the benefit of tilting a portfolio towards small/value/momentum. In this framework a tilt would simply mean lowering variance exposure but increasing skewness ... ...Exactly. Which means that the notion of "beating the market" by tilting is a...
by nisiprius
Fri May 22, 2015 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation with large holding in single stock
Replies: 32
Views: 1912

Re: Allocation with large holding in single stock

...60% of their portfolio is within Apple stock that no amount of convincing will change... Try harder. Try to get them to sell it down incrementally or something. This is awful. No matter what they say now there is no way they will actually be cool with losing 60% of their portfolio. For the stock...

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