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Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

P.S. We spend our working lives intuitively adjusting our spending to our somewhat variable and unpredictable income. Nobody ever suggests running a Monte Carlo analysis of one's future earnings. Nobody ever suggests that your spending at age 25 should be governed by statistical projections of your ...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2341

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

Too lazy to look at the paper now, but a long time ago I had what I thought was the bright idea of, conceptually, constantly evaluating your remaining life expectancy and gauging your spending by dividing your portfolio by the number of years of remaining life expectancy. With of course adjustment b...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2341

Re: TBM too much treasury?

I still want to know: if not the Barclay's Float-Adjusted Aggregate Index, then what index? If you do not personally wish to invest in "the dollar denominated investment grade bond market, but excluding Treasuries, agencies and MBS held in Federal Reserve accounts" that is your prerogative...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 62
Views: 3319

Re: TBM too much treasury?

The reasons TBM is considered skewed is missing from the thread. My understanding is that all the bonds the Federal Reserve has purchased and held are included in the construction of the total bond index. But if one considers those bonds as just being the government financing itself (printing money...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 62
Views: 3319

Re: POLL: How fulfilling is your retirement?

I've been semiretired for several years but only fully retired for less than a year. None of the answers really fits. I think I would replace "About what I expected" with "About what I hoped ." Greatest adventure of my life? honestly, no, or not yet anyway.* More fulfilling? I ho...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: How fulfilling is your retirement?
Replies: 24
Views: 1525

Re: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?

While I'm still steaming, let me post an additional note with regard to the "off-brand tablet" experience, because I just had a typical Kindle Fire experience. (Curious to know how it is for "real" Android tablet users, using apps from the "real" Google Play). 1) Lots o...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?
Replies: 17
Views: 1275

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing

You didn't mention that I usually like to post showing that if you take a full cycle around 2008-2009, dip and return to same point, holding 60% Total Stock, 40% Total Bond and not rebalancing gives a virtually identical outcome to holding Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, while dropping less. Oh, and t...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing
Replies: 24
Views: 1677

Re: Safety net - VBMFX, PRPFX, VIPSX, VWINX, or Pimco

Let's look at 2008-2009, just as one indication. I also threw in Vanguard Prime Money Market, simply because Morningstar always plots the fourth fund in yellow which I find really hard to see. http://s2.postimg.org/l0dq7jtvt/Screen_Shot_2014_10_18_at_7_48_52_PM.png You need to decide what constitute...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safety net - VBMFX, PRPFX, VIPSX, VWINX, or Pimco
Replies: 12
Views: 1892

Re: Health care tilt

...the industry is remarkably recession-proof so to speak... Are you sure about that? I'm not quite sure how to research this, nor am I sure I will get around to it, but I have the idea that the Great Depression was a fairly bad time for doctors, because nobody could afford to pay them. Check up on...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health care tilt
Replies: 42
Views: 1603

Re: Stocks as long term investments

If he had invested $8,000 in the US Stock Market (i.e. Total Stock Market or S&P 500 index) in 1980, that 8k would have turned into $327,289 by 2013. How is that for a college tuition? Source: http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com Ahem. I tried that exercise, too. I am a very evil person and every...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 31
Views: 1662

Re: Debit Card was hacked. Should I just use cash from now

Anyone else paying cash for everyday purchases like groceries, gas, clothing, etc? Yes. Simple and still working great after decades, go figure. :happy There are maybe a dozen of ATM machines in my local small town downtown, but only one of them dispenses anything smaller than twenties. How do you ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debit Card was hacked. Should I just use cash from now on?
Replies: 33
Views: 1808

Re: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?

I have the (older) Kindle Fire HD 8.9". It was a "deal" for $200. I think the screen size is the same as on the Kindle Fire HDX. My wife has an iPad Air which she received as a gift. I think a Kindle Fire HD 8.9" for $200 represents better value for the money than the iPad Air fo...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindle HDX or iPad Air?
Replies: 17
Views: 1275

Re: Health care tilt

...Health care is a unique industry in many ways. I see it as an excellent diversifier... Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund is already 1/8 healthcare. Why is putting more of your portfolio into healthcare "diversifying" and not "concentrating?" Very seriously, what industry...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health care tilt
Replies: 42
Views: 1603

Re: Cash in liquid savings

It's your money and your life. You need to decide what is of value to you. I don't think it's possible to avoid some "waste." And I do think it's reasonable to spend money on frivolous things that make us happy. Feeling secure isn't even frivolous, it's quite important. You need to think t...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash in liquid savings
Replies: 13
Views: 1122

Re: "I've had it" at work - how often

Never. I've resigned twice from jobs but I don't think either really matches your description. If "never" sounds way too rosy, then, let's say, apart from the two times I was laid off, I don't think there have been six times in forty years that I have seriously gone home and seriously star...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I've had it" at work - how often
Replies: 81
Views: 6200

Re: If those airline passengers get sick- airline stocks wil

cvault wrote:have a very VERY bad day.

And it won't just be contained to the airline sector.

What have you done just in case- OTM puts? Gone to cash? Inverse?
Gotten my flu shot to minimize my chances of being one of the 250,000 people will die of flu this season.
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If those airline passengers get sick- airline stocks will
Replies: 22
Views: 1566

Re: Stocks as long term investments

Look at all the millionaires. They all buy individual stocks and not mutual funds. To make a million bucks buy individual stock, like Warren Buffett. Steve Schullo and Dan Robertson, author of the book Late Bloomer Millionaires , made $1,514,315 by 2011 by buying mutual funds with money saved from ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 31
Views: 1662

Re: Stocks as long term investments

1) If I were holding an individual stock as a long-term investment, why would I care what happens on Tuesday? 2) I am currently holding Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, which means that of my domestic stocks, 2.6% is invested in Apple Computer, Inc, and 0.6% is invested in Gilead Sciences, In...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 31
Views: 1662

Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?

Graphically: if I take Morningstar's curves and adjust them by gender, so that the same allocation for a male with "moderate" risk tolerance occurs three years earlier than for a female--based on the assumption that a male's risk tolerance is governed by his feeling psychologically three y...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Replies: 28
Views: 1876

Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?

"Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?" Because anything beyond any rough rule of thumb is all meaningless false precision. Probably sparked by resistance to accepting uncertainty. The difference in average life expectancy at age 65 between men and women is less than 3 years U...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Replies: 28
Views: 1876

Re: TBM too much treasury?

Vanguard can be criticized for using the word "Total" in their bond fund (just as they could have been criticized for years for using the word "Total International Stock Index Fund" for a fund that did not include Canada). Nevertheless, the Lehman, I mean Barclay's Aggregate Bond...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 62
Views: 3319

Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?

"Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?" Because anything beyond any rough rule of thumb is all meaningless false precision. Probably sparked by resistance to accepting uncertainty. The difference in average life expectancy at age 65 between men and women is less than 3 years Us...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Replies: 28
Views: 1876

Re: Long term return forecast

Re the small-cap forecast, 0% return, 20% volatility I think it is worth remembering that Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, wrote in 1983 that A growing body of evidence exists that small-capitalization stocks significantly outperform large-capitalization stocks. This effect is so stron...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term return forecast [Research Affil. Expected returns]
Replies: 27
Views: 1664

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

I am basically a reader, but my imagination is limited, and I therefore enjoy well-done movie adaptations that add an extra feeling of reality to the imagined world of the book. I therefore have a special fondness for filmmakers who seem to have experienced the book the same way I did, and managed t...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 79
Views: 2635

Re: Debit Card was hacked. Should I just use cash from now

Credit cards provide lots of protection. As I understand, there's not as much legal (or practical) protection for debit cards, so I wouldn't use a debit card. Carrying cash has its own risks. The imminent move towards chip cards should help with the hacks. And hurt a lot, with regard to privacy, bu...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debit Card was hacked. Should I just use cash from now on?
Replies: 33
Views: 1808

Re: Debit Card was hacked. Should I just use cash from now

My wife and I like to have several different pieces of plastic so that there's a backup if we're on a trip and one is declined (or lost, or compromised). We generally prefer to use debit cards because for whatever reason we seem to be able to "keep the picture" of our spending when we are ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debit Card was hacked. Should I just use cash from now on?
Replies: 33
Views: 1808

Re: Considering a more aggressive AA than age = bonds

1) Thankyoujack, I cannot overemphasize this: this is your personal decision. Your job is to dig into things like charts of what the stock market has done over time, use what YOU know about YOU, and your personal style in financial risk-taking, and decide for yourself how much risk YOU want to take....
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a more aggressive AA than age = bonds
Replies: 41
Views: 3177

Re: Are Vanguard's target-retirement funds too aggressive?

Well, we've gone from a debate between fixed 50/50 or 60/40 for everybody vs. age in bonds, to age-10, then to age-20, and now we have these TR allocations. Certainly VG made a huge revision to the the TR allocations to make them more aggressive. I seem to recall that happening at pretty much the w...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's target-retirement funds too aggressive?
Replies: 24
Views: 1677

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

Are you planning on posting the answer? I could say that I already did, :) But, OK. The first sixty points, on the left, in blue, have a standard deviation of 9.6, and those on the right have a standard deviation of 9.5. So in fact, as I write this, the counts stand at 3, 7, 8, 19, 20, 12, 5, 3, so...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1419

Re: Are Vanguard's target-retirement funds too aggressive?

Would you consider 90/10 too be too aggressive an asset allocation for someone in their early 30s? Bogle's "age in bonds" would have them holding at least 30% in bonds, but across several large brokerages, I've noticed that their target-retirement funds are very aggressive. For example, T...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's target-retirement funds too aggressive?
Replies: 24
Views: 1677

"Outrigger" bank account with a TIRA: not possible?

I've been annoyed by the near-zero interest rates on money market mutual funds, such as Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund, and I decided it was time to see if there was an easy way out. If I understood what Capital One told me, the answer is no, but what do other Bogleheads know? What I want to do is...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Outrigger" bank account with a TIRA: not possible?
Replies: 2
Views: 229

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

tadamsmar, I have it in my head to post a thread about this... if I get around to it. This is thinking out loud, so don't assume I have a point to make here. I'm thinking of John C. Bogle's comment. I don't want to deal with the "what is risk" question, I want to deal with the relationship...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1419

Re: Siren song of increased stock allocation

Starbux, it is your money and your life, and "Trust thyself: every heart vibrates to that iron string." Just keep in mind John C. Bogle's dictum: Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes. Keep in mind that nobody knows nuttin'. Keep in mind ...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Siren song of increased stock allocation
Replies: 38
Views: 2847

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

One question..... When I looked up "effective complaint letter" online, a source specifically stated that you should write to their consumer relations dept. at first, and not the CEO, since any letter addressed to the CEO with a complaint will be sent to the consumer relations dept. immed...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1218

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

Never tried writing to a CEO outside the U.S., though. Might try: Gerry P. Smith Executive Vice President and President of Lenovo Americas & Enterprise Business Group 1009 Think Place, Morrisville, NC, U.S Annual report doesn't seem to give their Beijing address... http://www.lenovo.com/ww/lenov...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1218

Re: How to write an effective complaint letter

In my limited experience: --The best place to send it to is the office of the CEO of the company. Go to the corporate website, look for investor or shareholder relations, download the latest annual report, and look for the CEO's name and the mailing address of the corporate headquarters. Or, try Wik...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to write an effective complaint letter
Replies: 27
Views: 1218

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

nisi, A 1% reduction in volatility would be like a 1% increase in the Sharpe ratio. That comparable to a 1% increase in returns with flat volatility. Whereas us Bogleheads get the vapors about a 0.1% reduction in the ER which is comparable to a 0.1% increase in returns. If you plotted a 1% decrease...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1419

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

I just realized that I shouldn't have joined the two curves, I should have left the gap. Effectively I included the first point of the "green" series within the blue group. In other words, I drew the chart incorrectly. This is the correctly drawn chart. Fortunately, you can change your ans...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1419

Re: Market Slide Percentages?

Who else is tracking their losses in the current slide of the past 6 days? I am ashamed to say I did so this morning. I usually try not to look at anything on a finer scale than the little "balances over time" charts on the Vanguard website, but, you know, this morning I'm afraid I swept ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Slide Percentages?
Replies: 28
Views: 1836

Re: The Role of Life Expectancy

And, note: "The days of our years are threescore years and ten; and if by reason of strength they be fourscore years, yet is their strength labour and sorrow." Proverbs 90:10, traditionally attributed to King David, about 1000 BCE. So there's certainly been some progress in the last three ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Role of Life Expectancy
Replies: 25
Views: 1637

Re: Dealing with Volatility

...Nobody complains when they can buy any other product cheaper either. For some odd reason when it comes to stocks shoppers like to buy when prices are high and not buy (or even sell) when prices are low... 1) In ordinary consumer spending, we usually have reasonable assurance that product on sale...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dealing with Volatility
Replies: 14
Views: 1100

Re: Replacement for tinypic?

I've been using postimage.org Registration is not required, and I have not registered and/or created an account. They state that "Postimage.org was founded in 2004 to provide forums with an easy way to upload images for free," but I can't speak to whether how truthful they are about their ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacement for tinypic?
Replies: 7
Views: 381

Re: The Role of Life Expectancy

What's real interesting on this topic is that there are those that feel we are on the verge of making a big leap in life expetency. That may not impact most of us, but those in their 20s may live well into their 100s. Perhaps, but I find it curious that few are talking about the quality of life. Fo...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Role of Life Expectancy
Replies: 25
Views: 1637

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

Going to local health dept for mine this morning. Expect a hassle, though. Don't want the high-dose version for elderly. Even the CDC admits it is only 25% more effective than regular dose. Yet because it is made of heavy-duty stuff that funky feeling you get after a flu shot for a few days will be...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 2925

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

Below are the actual data points. Please don't post spoilers yet; as of now, anyway, the poll stands at: http://s27.postimg.org/dt829exsj/Captura_de_pantalla_2014_10_16_a_la_s_1_42_37_P.png The first sixty data points, plotted in blue on the chart: 9.353200688 6.177009621 8.082724262 -4.099819635 11...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1419

Re: TBM too much treasury?

The funny thing is that the same sources of media noise that have been knocking Treasuries since 2011 or so have also been wringing their hands over issues with liquidity issues in the bond market and how "liquidity problems with bonds" could affect "bond mutual funds" and create...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 62
Views: 3319

Re: Fidelity Investments forges alliance with Betterment

I may be guilty of oversimplifying what I don't understand, but I don't see what Betterment, Wealthfront, etc. do that would be difficult for anyone else to copy. "Anyone"? You must have neither family nor friends. ;) Seriously, you must have run across people who have clearly needed help...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Investments forges alliance with Betterment
Replies: 7
Views: 704

Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?

In another post, I commented that according to Vanguard , in the past, in a 60/40 balanced portfolio, with the stocks allocated 50/50 between U.S. and international, the effect of using 50% foreign bonds, versus all U.S., was to reduce the standard deviation of the portfolio from 9.6 to 9.5. Herewit...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1419
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