Search found 28211 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to avoid losing a cell phone
Replies: 38
Views: 1575

Re: How to avoid losing a cell phone

I keep it in a case that clips to my belt.
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price & Earnings data for International stock market?
Replies: 2
Views: 86

Re: Price & Earnings data for International stock market?

1) You can't have data for the emerging markets index back to 1870 because the first emerging markets index wasn't created until 1987. It wasn't created until 1987 because the very phrase "emerging markets" wasn't coined until the 1980s. And it wasn't needed before then because in 1987 eme...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Google Type Face
Replies: 12
Views: 1175

Re: New Google Type Face

And finally, the actual system designers talk about the why, the how, and in far more detail than you thought possible... https://design.google.com/articles/evolving-the-google-identity/ And that's nonsense, too, and an insult to our intelligence. "A refinement of what makes us Googley, combin...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Google Type Face
Replies: 12
Views: 1175

Re: New Google Type Face

If you really want to know why they did it... http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/google-update.html Except that's nonsense. They say they are doing it for small screens, and I've already pointed out that the resolution of today's smallest screens is higher than that of yesterday's desktop monit...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too Much Cash Can Hurt Your Portfolio?
Replies: 11
Views: 759

Re: Too Much Cash Can Hurt Your Portfolio?

What was the original article? Who wrote it? I am suspicious. By any chance was it someone connected with an investment firm? 1) I don't think many people who have, let's say, a $500,000 portfolio do have half of it in cash. I'd like to see the evidence for that. 2) Although it can be debated endles...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stock fund vs International stock fund, relative strength
Replies: 6
Views: 741

Re: US stock fund vs International stock fund, relative strength

Thanks nisiprius. So I guess this is a case of the dreaded "starting date bias," and that web tool doesn't allow you to pick the start date. I think it's fund inception of the latest starter. I think so, too. Remember, the point of his chart is not to tell which is better, but to illustra...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stock fund vs International stock fund, relative strength
Replies: 6
Views: 741

Re: US stock fund vs International stock fund, relative strength

John C. Bogle's "Telltale Chart" is simply the ratio between the cumulative return of two investments over a period of time, from some starting point. It's basically related to the vertical distance between the two lines on a semilog growth chart of the two investments: Source: Morningstar...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 970
Views: 191815

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"X", by Sue Grafton. Part of her "alphabet" mystery series. Everything else had the pattern "[letter] is for [word]," A is for Alibi, B is for Burglar, etc. but she probably hadn't planned ahead to "X" when she started the series. It's pretty good, although it...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now
Replies: 54
Views: 6190

Re: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now

Looks like Mebane Faber's tactical asset allocation model has also gone 100% cash. Last time 2007-2008. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/the-most-downloaded-ssrn-paper-ever-is-all-about-market-timing Why, then, is his Global Asset Allocation ETF (GAA) holding 41% stocks, 50% bonds,...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Google Type Face
Replies: 12
Views: 1175

Re: New Google Type Face

If you really want to know why they did it... http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2015/09/google-update.html Except that's nonsense. They say they are doing it for small screens, and I've already pointed out that the resolution of today's smallest screens is higher than that of yesterday's desktop monit...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Google Type Face
Replies: 12
Views: 1175

Re: New Google Type Face

P.S. I wonder if screen resolutions are so high that a typeface could actually succeed in having just the trace of extra shading around the top left edge, to convey the crisp look that letterpress has on the page? It's not a great big deal, but I felt that the reading experience lost something when ...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Google Type Face
Replies: 12
Views: 1175

Re: New Google Type Face

https://www.google.com/images/branding/googlelogo/2x/googlelogo_color_272x92dp.png Is that what they are using for their new logo? What can you say about it? Well, it's better than Comic Sans, I guess. (I view with alarm their change of logo. I always interpret this kind of change to mean means som...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2551

Re: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement

To me, and to most people, the function of a home is not an investment, it's shelter. We own a home because we need somewhere to live. If you live in an apartment and make money by flipping real estate, then to you homes are an investment. I have never included home equity in any quantitative sort o...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now
Replies: 54
Views: 6190

Re: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now

...Did he talk about his dead cat again?... I realize all the dangers of trying to see into the heart of a celebrity, but this sounds like the writing of a profoundly sad man. My underlining: If that be the case, then equity market capital gains and future returns are likely to be limited if not do...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now
Replies: 54
Views: 6190

Re: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now

Cash or better yet “near cash” such as 1-2 year corporate bonds are my best idea of appropriate risks/reward investments. The reward is not much, but as Will Rogers once said during the Great Depression – “I’m not so much concerned about the return on my money as the return of my money.” 1)The usua...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1407

Re: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?

As lack_ey tried to point out, probability of "going up" or "going down" is a dangerously wrongheaded thing to look at. You have to look at magnitude and not just at direction. It is trivially easy to all-but-guarantee winning at the casino, even against the house odds . I've put...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed into a difficult period? [Telegraph "Doomsday" article]
Replies: 25
Views: 3087

Re: Are we headed into a difficult period? [Telegraph "Doomsday" article]

^^17th August http://i.imgur.com/ZQ7tYlz.png Mebane Faber's Cambria Global Asset Allocation Fund, GAA, (43% stocks, 50% bonds, 5% cash, 4% other) isn't one of the things that are going up, either, despite being invested 50% in bonds and 5% in cash (presumably USD), so I guess it mustn't be heavily ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETFs to deal with inflation
Replies: 7
Views: 588

Re: ETFs to deal with inflation

There are quite a few intermediate-term TIPS ETFs. I don't know why the Vanguard Inflation-Linked Securities fund, VIPSX, isn't an index fund and doesn't have an ETF share class, but it doesn't. A TIPS ETF personally happened to use for a while was iShares TIP which I regard as essentially interchan...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is it worth buying ESPP?
Replies: 30
Views: 1816

Re: is it worth buying ESPP?

I once participated in an ESPP plan. It was a Fortune 500 high-tech company that was once a household name. Although nothing was said, I had the impression that my boss would know whether I was participating or not and that it would be a mild indication of lack of faith in the company if I didn't, s...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?
Replies: 25
Views: 2416

Re: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?

Point #1: an awful lot of important events in investing do seem to be tied to, driven by, or entangled in historic events that can be anticipated, so it behoove everyone not to be too confident in their projections--unless you have statistics on the expected number of Ebola scares or archduke assass...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Premium Increase and Cost of Living Option
Replies: 10
Views: 908

Re: Long Term Care Premium Increase and Cost of Living Option

Sorry, does this mean that you pay an extra 37% for one year to get a one-time increase in the benefit? Or does it mean you pay 37% more forever in order to get a benefit that keeps increasing every year? Our LTCi policy has a 5%-compounded-annual-increase. That is, if the benefit is $200 one year, ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K
Replies: 20
Views: 2564

Re: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K

Interesting numbers. I am wondering what if the funds are compared with index funds with similar style. Probably very good. My employer's 401(k) fund was always predominantly populated with funds rated 4 and 5 stars by Morningstar. They didn't put funds into the plan if they hadn't had good past pe...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nothing is something worth doing
Replies: 22
Views: 1986

Re: Nothing is something worth doing

Actually, no. I followed Larry Swedroe's advice and did something: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2610316#p2610316 Yesterday's RBD required me to rebalance by buying. This morning's big gain required me to rebalance by selling. Whoa. Livesoft, how wide are your rebalancing bands? ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund
Replies: 31
Views: 2371

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund

I haven't looked yet, and I'm committing to posting before I peek. Right now, we have a reasonable sort of real-world test on the actual amount of risk that is embodied in the underlying portfolio of the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund. I am ignoring the question of whether the smoothing function makes...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund
Replies: 31
Views: 2371

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund

With all the automated roboservices, it seems to me that the next frontier would be to automate a payout strategy on a portfolio, but I don't think that's available yet from anybody... not Vanguard, not the Wealthmints of the world... as far as I know. Betterment has it. And it seems pretty nice to...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7632

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I think you were wrong to sell them all. If you felt absolutely compelled to do something, you should have considered making the smallest, gentlest, most gradual adjustment that would relieve the pressure. One of my personal absolutes is "no big sudden changes in asset allocation, not never, no...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1407

Re: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?

...So it seems like you agree with the logic that instead of buying VTSAX and being locked into the market on example day Tuesday, one could potentially get a better price by holding off and applying the following rules to the ETF: 1) Look at price of VTI on Tuesday and buy if the price has dropped...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?
Replies: 25
Views: 2416

Re: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?

livesoft, I don't know if your post is Socratic, but I have to say that I had completely forgotten that there had been a 10% drop last October. The last one I actually remember was 2011--that's when this "U.S. stocks in freefall" thread started--but I don't remember what was being said abo...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?
Replies: 16
Views: 1775

Re: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?

bene1 wrote:...Why buy a 1-4 year, when you'd still get a better effective rate on a 5 year after an early withdrawal penalty?...
I have to open the can of worms: because you probably do not know for sure that the bank will allow you to make the early withdrawal.
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1407

Re: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?

I think the answer is pretty simple. If you believe that intraday price movements follow a random walk, the answer is no.

If you believe prices follow a predictable pattern that is not random, and that you can predict it, the answer is yes.
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 59
Views: 2818

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

It's critical to understand whether an outperformance claim is based on "risk" or "behavior" (or what portion of the claimed outperformance is attributed to each component). If it's based on risk, then on the one hand it doesn't challenge the efficient market hypothesis. But, on ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So-called charity won't delete my name
Replies: 28
Views: 2131

Re: So-called charity won't delete my name

To all the people suggesting mailing heavy things in business reply envelopes: have you really seen any? It seems to me that it's been a good decade since charities used them. All the solicitations we have now just have a little printed square that says something like "Your stamp helps us fight...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 53
Views: 2332

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Nothing is certain. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stocks are fairly priced, so over the long term any asset class is likely to converge on a similar level of returns, so you can't generalize that one will do better than the other consistently. That's not what market efficiency means...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 53
Views: 2332

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Finding some very contradictory information on this community. Some people are saying you should hold small, value, emerging, etc. for higher returns others say you should hold cap weight because cap weight is efficient. Yes. Which side is right? I don't know. Don't trust people who are too confide...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?
Replies: 16
Views: 1775

Re: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?

I once had a CD ladder at a time when the yield curve was quite steep. The way I expressed the benefit to myself was that "There's always 25% of my money that's no more than 6 months away." That is, to me, the rate of the 24-month CD was attractive; --I wanted more liquidity than I could g...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 50
Views: 5118

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

Doesn't investing directly in emerging markets violate the 3-fund portfolio? The three-fund portfolio isn't a rule, and can't be violated. If you like, the rules that could be violated are those that form the Bogleheads investment philosophy , all of which are comfortably vague and allow a lot of r...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K
Replies: 20
Views: 2564

Re: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K

I think "funds offered in his 401(k)" is a very relevant and fair datum to use. Good idea. It is also a very good indicator of the funds he is always bringing up, without naming them, as examples. As to how to evaluate them fairly, that's obviously a separate question, and not easy to answ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So-called charity won't delete my name
Replies: 28
Views: 2131

Re: So-called charity won't delete my name

???? "Project C.U.R.E." with periods after the letters looks legit. They also do not appear to have any specific diabetes-related programs. I'm guessing the scam is claiming an association with a diffently-named, misleadingly-named umbrella organization?
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So-called charity won't delete my name
Replies: 28
Views: 2131

Re: So-called charity won't delete my name

One detail. If you actually want to take the time to get a government agency to take action against them, you need to be sure you can give that agency a good clear paper trail showing that you did request that they remove your name from the list and that they didn't do it. For example, did you make ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 50
Views: 5118

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

Once again, I found something different from what I expected to find. That happens a lot! On the face of it (and I do think "investor returns" mean something), Morningstar's "investor returns" for the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, VEIEX, beat the "fund returns&...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:56 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: [forum running at] Slow speed
Replies: 71
Views: 3765

Re: Slow speed

Apparently back to normal now. Sincere thanks to whomever did whatever!
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 9
Views: 1253

Re: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel

Actually, I haven't been keeping track of his predictions so I don't know if he's made enough different ones that you can just select the impressive one, but this one is pretty impressive: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/siegel-expect-stock-market-correction-132414918.html December 9, 2014 9:03 AM Lon...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 9
Views: 1253

Re: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel

Wake me up when Professor Siegel warns about frothy valuations and an overheated market.
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 59
Views: 2818

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

Larry, I am sure that the human-judgement-based stock pickers do not claim infallibility, either, and claim only that by using judgement they are likely to achieve better results than by indiscriminately picking all the stocks that meet some rigid criterion. And I am sure that the astrology-based st...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?
Replies: 25
Views: 1653

Re: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?

If you pay off your bill every month and the balance is never very large, credit utilization would not be very high, would it?

If you never incur a finance charge, do you have any credit utilization at all?
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?
Replies: 25
Views: 1653

Re: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?

Question: I have several cards that I do not use anymore and considering closing them. Does that negatively affect my score? Yes, quite likely. Primarily because it raises your credit utilization percentage. Maybe not by much. I have the impression that people exaggerate this, perhaps because credi...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week
Replies: 21
Views: 1352

Re: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week

A 10% drop is a "panic" time? Really? (For comparison, stocks dropped 34% during the "Panic of 1907.")
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week
Replies: 21
Views: 1352

Re: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week

Let's enumerate the number of ways that an ETF provider gets paid... Interesting, thanks. Here, some bit of criticism applies to Vanguard too. Vanguard should not just start listing every flavor of ETF. So I am not in favor of them opening a China ETF, a Macau ETF, a Taiwan ETF, etc. What's next? W...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?
Replies: 21
Views: 1381

Re: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?

P.S. If you are serious about going through with it, there is a step I would personally take, although it seems weird. I would simply call the IRS and ask. If in fact this really is a routine no-problem situation they will say so, and give you the names and numbers of the forms that need to be filed...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?
Replies: 21
Views: 1381

Re: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?

...He proposes that we pay him a lump sum... ... now ... ...and in return he names one of my kids as the beneficiary of his account. ... later . And that's why I think it's problematical. Forgetting all details, the essence of the situation is that you are paying a (biggish) chunk of dough now, in ...

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