Search found 27863 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 113
Views: 3867

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

...I think people are worried the government will understate inflation in their calculations... It didn't during post-World-War-II inflation, and it didn't during the 1970s when the CPI figures embarrassed the government by showing that the price freeze was ineffective. And the terms and conditions...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 113
Views: 3867

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

It depends on what you define as risk and what your time frame is. Over the long run, the threat of inflation poses a bigger risk than the short-term gyrations of the stock market. In that sense, you might think of bonds as being risky investments too. ... So, if I put all my money in TIPS, it woul...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 113
Views: 3867

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

...The thing is there is a reversion to the mean in stock returns so bad years tend to be followed by good years and vice versa... The elephant in that room is: Pastor, Lubos and Stambaugh, Robert F., Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run? (March 22, 2011). Are Stocks Really Less Volatile...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 113
Views: 3867

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

...Backtesting whole periods from history shows that 100% TSM always beats any portfolio with any TBM if you wait long enough (generally 25 years)... If you literally mean Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, inception 04/27/1992, and Vanguard Total Bond Market 12/11/1986, I suppose that's true,...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 113
Views: 3867

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

...Any temporary loss in market value will be recovered as the earnings and dividends come raining down... Earnings and dividends are what they are. They are numbers. They don't get any larger if you use language like "raining down" (or "generous" or "dividend machine"...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Sharpe instead of Sortino in evaluating portfolios
Replies: 6
Views: 307

Re: Using Sharpe instead of Sortino in evaluating portfolios

I (mostly) understand the difference between Sharpe and Sortino ratios. I'm curious: why do so many Bogleheads cite Sharpe ratios when arguing about :D discussing portfolios? I would have thought that the Sortino ratio is a more useful measure. It displays on Portfolio Visualizer, for instance, so ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 113
Views: 3867

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

rca1824, the idea that "stocks aren't risky as long if you're buying them as long-term investments" goes back at least as far as 1924 and Edgar Lawrence Smith's book, Common Stocks as Long-Term Investments . The Center for Research on Securities Prices, CRSP, which provides many of the ind...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: Social Security and Expenses
Replies: 54
Views: 2740

Re: Retirees: Social Security and Expenses

Gill wrote:You're really asking us to divulge our income. Think about it. Gill
I agree. Not precisely, but certainly a major clue.
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I just getting old?
Replies: 19
Views: 2151

Re: Am I just getting old?

Yeah, it's not like the good old days when we all knew what coopers, stevedores, and fellmongers did.

"Gee, our old La Salle ran great," and I bet there are some readers who not only don't know what a La Salle was, but don't know what that line is a reference to.
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard good for stocks?
Replies: 8
Views: 351

Re: Vanguard good for stocks?

Thank you. I agreed, only 5% of my portfolio is dedicated to individual stocks as this funds my flying hobby (let them pay for the plane :idea: ) I cannot quoting the stock speculator, Jesse Livermore: There isn’t a [trader] on Wall Street who has not lost money trying to make the market pay for an...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard good for stocks?
Replies: 8
Views: 351

Re: Vanguard good for stocks?

Personally, if you want to make occasional purchases of conservatively chosen stocks, with the intention of buying and holding them for a longish time, I think Vanguard Brokerage Services is fine . Like if you just want to buy some individual TIPS (which I've done), or if you just want to put 5% of ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premiums Around the World - July 2015
Replies: 14
Views: 1271

Re: Equity Risk Premiums Around the World - July 2015

simplegift, would you mind publishing the actual list of data point pairs, you used in that correlation chart? I'd like to double-check your value, and I'd also like to do a rank correlation test (Spearman's rho) on whether it's significant. If 0.7574 is R squared , the correlation coefficient itsel...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 45
Views: 2366

Re: A bit of gold?

If your goal is to invest in something that will still have some value of some kind in 1,000 years, gold may be a good way to go. If your time horizon is less than 1,000 years, I would avoid it. First, there is a difference between "value of some kind" and "roughly the same real valu...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 45
Views: 2366

Re: A bit of gold?

...I'm not a gold bug but it looks like adding a small slice say to one's portfolio in gold can improve risk-adjusted total returns... Pay attention to your verb tenses. (And by all means slap me on the wrist whenever I get sloppy about them, which I sometimes do). 1) Over the specific time period ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?
Replies: 28
Views: 3008

Re: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?

...Agree, but I think that one's AA always ought to be based on some idea of risk tolerance based on the possible "worst case" scenario; e.g., stocks tanking as much as 50%.... Whoa whoa whoa... 50% is not anything like a "worst case." 50% is more like a "typical bad case.&...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???
Replies: 32
Views: 1694

Re: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???

Having about 30% of my portfolio earning zero real doesn't bother me in the slightest. If you want to feel better, spin it the other way--you're "preserving real wealth." This is strictly a personal decision of mine, but you might find it interesting. I did exactly the opposite thing. I mo...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I reject a medical exam during insurance application without consequences?
Replies: 48
Views: 2639

Re: Can I reject a medical exam during insurance application without consequences?

BruDude, or anyone else, do you know... in Ye Olde Days, hospitals routinely shared information with the Medical Information Bureau (the clearinghouse for keeping records of serious medical conditions for insurance companies). This was perfectly open--in theory--it was in the fine print of the paper...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4555

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

...So this is my question: why believe in an equity risk premium but not a SCV premium?... Because stocks and bonds are fundamentally different, while one flavor of stock is not fundamentally different from any other flavor of stock. Calling small-cap value a separate "asset class" is lik...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 18
Views: 1765

Re: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

The same thing happens to me with books. I read the book, and form a mental image of the characters and the settings. Of course, if this is a series of books, my mental image gets stronger and stronger with each book. And then the movie or TV series comes out and I'm completely disgruntled that MY ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice would you give...Salary bumping up from 37k to 45k annually
Replies: 15
Views: 1352

Re: What advice would you give...Salary bumping up from 37k to 45k annually

Decide how you are going to capture some of that in the form of automatic savings. Consciously decide how much of that increase (remembering that the increase in take-home will be less!) you want to enjoy in the form of increased spending today. Choose some number that's big enough to enjoy. Then ma...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision
Replies: 30
Views: 2960

Re: "Watch this stuff"

Taylor Larimore wrote:Matjen:

I loved the author's link: "Watch this stuff"

We must try to remember: No one can forecast the future.

Thank you and best wishes
Taylor
Excellent article, and that link is... amazing.
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 18
Views: 1765

The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

A tiny little life lesson during the process of trying to cope with some things that are outside my routine. At dozens of steps along the way I have been sure about what would happen next. At every single step I’ve been wrong. I normally live within a narrow routine, within which things are somewhat...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at dividend paying stocks
Replies: 37
Views: 3290

Re: Another look at dividend paying stocks

Just to be clear, then, Larry, I take it you would definitely not agree with the recommendations of Burton Malkiel and Charles D. Ellis, who made what I thought was a surprising suggestion in the 2013 edition of their The Elements of Investing . This book is aimed at an audience of beginning investo...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market’s Got It All Wrong ?
Replies: 10
Views: 1663

Re: Bond Market’s Got It All Wrong ?

(Shrug) I don't know how often it needs to be repeated that there are no predictions reliable enough for a prudent investor to act on. Nobody knows what's going to happen a couple of years from now with respect to inflation or interest rates. There may be "wisdom of the crowd" but there is...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4555

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

nisiprius, the unexploited returns of SCV don't rely on clever investors making behavioral errors. You are forgetting that most investors aren't active investors weighing fundamentals. They are just passive investors buying cap-weighted index funds or investing through an institution that probably ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4555

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

...A new thought on my part, and thanks for prompting it, Louis Winthorpe III: isn't the sales pitch for exploiting behavioral errors based on flattering the customer, saying the person or institution (read: mark) in question isn't as stupid as everybody else, and is being invited in to an exclusiv...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?
Replies: 28
Views: 3008

Re: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?

Nisiprius wrote: Maybe the general rule is that whatever indicator is foretelling a stock market crash is the indicator we are apt to pay attention to. Yes, but it's always better to choose the indicator after the event. Paul :) That's what the NBER does. They are 100% accurate in calling recession...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?
Replies: 28
Views: 3008

Re: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?

"Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?" I thought it was an inverted yield curve that was supposed to foretell a stock market crash. 2007: http://s7.postimg.org/yocq04hrv/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_07_26_a_las_5_44_27_PM.png 2015: http://s7.postimg.org/5xfwa2by3/Captur...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?
Replies: 29
Views: 1892

Re: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?

What I'm not sure about is if a computer goes belly up, and can't be revived, can the system files be put onto a *different* computer, or would anti-piracy protections interfere? And would this be a problem for other full imaging programs? RM In general it's a mess because the operating system want...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?
Replies: 29
Views: 1892

Re: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?

Does it preserve file dates for Windows users? I'm on Windows 8.1. I just did a trial restore of a file dated Aug 26, 2010 that was deleted on 9/22/2014 and it's "modified" date was correctly restored. Note that Windows keeps track of TWO file dates: created and modified. If you make a co...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?
Replies: 29
Views: 1892

Re: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?

My restores have been very quick. But for sure, if you're getting delays on the restore end of 5 mins, sounds like a no-go for you! It's a delay until the connection is made. Once the connection is made, it's reasonable. I've only seen the five-minute delay once, but it raises concerns about the ro...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?
Replies: 29
Views: 1892

Re: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?

Well, I'm testing CrashPlan on the 30-day trial... so far I'm not thrilled by it. I can't tell if this is the too-familiar "great PC product, inferior Mac product" situation. It is clear to me that in a Mac OS X environment CrashPlan does not preserve files fully and faithfully. Based on t...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 3800

Re: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond

PJW, (Shrug) I'm very happy to stay the course in Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund. I don't think the use of the word "Total" in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, or Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is intended to deceive nor d...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 3800

Re: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond

Now you've done it, Phineas. Some academic is going to write a paper showing that pink-sheet stocks have had higher risk-adjusted return than listed stocks and "low" correlation by some definition of "low," then get hired as consultant by an ETF provider offering a pink-sheet ETF...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EGRX
Replies: 4
Views: 366

Re: EGRX

...I don't invest in single stocks but it's tempting!... In "The Way of All Flesh," Samuel Butler wrote: How often do I not hear middle-aged women and quiet family men say that they have no speculative tendency; they never had touched, and never would touch, any but the very soundest, bes...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?
Replies: 29
Views: 1892

CrashPlan NOT a whole-drive system backup solution?

This seems perfectly clear but I just wanted to do a reality check, as I had had a (false?) impression. http://support.code42.com/CrashPlan/Latest/Backup/What_Should_You_Back_Up Which Files Should You Back Up? Personal FilesThe short answer is "The personal files that matter to you." Crash...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Greatest money lesson movie
Replies: 63
Views: 5525

Re: Greatest money lesson movie

MP173 wrote:"OTher People's Money"

Ed
The novel by Jerome Wiedman?
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Performance review for Boss!
Replies: 20
Views: 2212

Re: Performance review for Boss!

Reminds me of the time I found a paper survey form in my office mail inbox requesting that I complete a completely anonymous, completely confidential survey asking all sorts of things about how I felt about my work, my boss, etc. The form said that my submission was completely anonymous and there wa...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds May Work a Little Too Well
Replies: 19
Views: 3466

Re: Index Funds May Work a Little Too Well

What's happening with David Danon's lawsuit against Vanguard for an alleged tax problem--the Vanguard Group not charging the funds enough or something like that? The last thing Google is finding is a Feb 20, 2015 article on philly.com.
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?
Replies: 29
Views: 2316

Re: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?

I don't think this cup-with-handle holds any water. More seriously, where did folks get the Vanguard cup? How do I get one too? Not one exactly like that, but you can get a similar one here: http://www.vanguardgear.com/shop/all-items/bella-mug.html http://s14.postimg.org/3pwb2qv69/Captura_de_pantal...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice Sought in International Fund Choice
Replies: 24
Views: 1358

Re: Advice Sought in International Fund Choice

"The chief value of money lies in the fact that one lives in a world in which it is overestimated."--H. L. Mencken
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?
Replies: 29
Views: 2316

Re: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?

Is it even possible not to see these as having patterns? (These are examples of "landscape agate.") https://showmerockhounds.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/dendrite-landscape-cabochon.jpg?w=381&h=366&crop=1 http://www.godspaintingsinstone.com/images1/agate4_small.jpg
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hard assets are having some very hard times
Replies: 16
Views: 1860

Re: Hard assets are having some very hard times

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own" ~ Baron Rothschild He was talking about physical red liquid arterial blood physically running in physical streets into physical gutters. He wasn't talking about a really bad day on Wall Street. And it's definitely apo...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Greatest money lesson movie
Replies: 63
Views: 5525

Re: Greatest money lesson movie

abuss368 wrote:Wall Street and Gordon Gekko "Greed is Good"!
Always remembering, of course, that the point of that scene is to show us the emptiness and amorality of Gordon Gekko.
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Greatest money lesson movie
Replies: 63
Views: 5525

Re: Greatest money lesson movie

GoldenFinch wrote:A Tree Grows in Brooklyn (1945).
Really? It's been a long time since I read the book--I'm not sure I've ever seen the movie--I remember loving it, but not much about it--"there is a tree that grows in Brooklyn which some people call the Tree of Heaven..." What's the money lesson?
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?
Replies: 29
Views: 2316

Re: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?

MrLasVegas, I'd add this. I've been reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator , a fictional work based on Jesse Livermore. When he talks about "reading the tape," he is talking about something very different--I sure hope it's very different--from the stock market of today. His trades were ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hard assets are having some very hard times
Replies: 16
Views: 1860

Re: Hard assets are having some very hard times

The general lesson I take from this is to be careful of trendy stuff. It is the "noise" we need to tune out. Around 2006, Ibbotson Associates published some research that seemed to suggest that a commodity allocation was helpful to traditional portfolios and that a commodity allocation was...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?
Replies: 29
Views: 2316

Re: Is this a cup-with-handle pattern?

MrLasVegas, you owe it to yourself to spend a few minutes trying to understand what this forum is about. While there's certainly a breadth of knowledge among members of this forum, technical analysis is not part of the Bogleheads investment philosophy and isn't related to "Investing advice insp...
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 22, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parent caught up in forex (vietnamese dong) scam... What should I do?
Replies: 44
Views: 5325

Re: Parent caught up in forex (vietnamese dong) scam... What should I do?

Awful. No. No idea what to do.

One warning: everything screams to me that this new "paperwork" will require her to pay more money. Watch out.

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