Search found 27913 matches

by nisiprius
Mon Aug 03, 2015 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What cap percent of the TSM does NASDAQ 100 represent?
Replies: 9
Views: 769

Re: What cap percent of the TSM does NASDAQ 100 represent?

...The reason is that I want to save up for a down-payment on a home and where I live the real estate prices track the NASDAQ pretty closely. So I was thinking I could insure my savings in the Total Stock Market index against a drop in the NASDAQ so that my home down payment fund doesn't drop along...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 03, 2015 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard REIT ETF - Do Dividends Pay Out?
Replies: 8
Views: 547

Re: Vanguard REIT ETF - Do Dividends Pay Out?

I searched the last 2 years for VNQ, and did not see any dividends. Where did you look for them? On Vanguard's site I see: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0986&FundIntExt=INT#tab=4 http://s10.postimg.org/j6dl5mmll/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_08_03_a_las_8_43_56_PM.png On Mor...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 245
Views: 10753

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

The "nerves of steel" business is always good for a debate.... In 1940, in Where are the Customer's Yachts , in the chapter on "Customers, That Hardy Breed," Fred Schwed wrote: Like all of life's rich emotional experiences, the full flavor of losing important money cannot be conv...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest research on the carry trade
Replies: 4
Views: 292

Re: Latest research on the carry trade

Larry Swedroe, in his linked article wrote:For those interested in alternatives such as carry, there is a relatively new fund from AQR: the Style Premia Alternative I fund (QSPIX).
Are there any other mutual funds or ETFs a retail investor could use, or does it need to be AQR and QSPIX?
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mark Hulbert: Stock market 3.5%/yr over next decade
Replies: 28
Views: 2425

Re: Mark Hulbert: Stock market 3.5%/yr over next decade

Note that he expect s 3.5% real returns. While that isn't great, it is 3% more than the risk-free real return on 10-year TIPS, and 3% isn't an unreasonable equity premium. Precisely. Unless there's a change in the relative returns of asset classes, there's no reason to take action other than revise...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 02, 2015 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Vanguard Have It's Own Stock?
Replies: 6
Views: 963

Re: Does Vanguard Have It's Own Stock?

Besides Vanguard and Fidelity, two other privately held companies are Dimensional Fund Advisors and American Funds. Some big publicly traded companies include: AllianceBernstein, Franklin, Janus, Legg Mason, T. Rowe Price, and Nuveen. People have said that if a mutual fund company is publicly traded...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What cap percent of the TSM does NASDAQ 100 represent?
Replies: 9
Views: 769

Re: What cap percent of the TSM does NASDAQ 100 represent?

DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT USING ProShares Short Nasdaq 100 PSQ until you've read the Wiki article on Inverse and leveraged ETFs. It probably doesn't do what you think it does, and it is only suitable for short-term speculation, not for buying-and-holding for periods much longer than a day. Now, your ac...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 02, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]
Replies: 46
Views: 3027

Re: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]

privatefarmer, given that you (think you are) following Fama and French, a reasonably interesting chart to look at is the one below. Fama and French work for Dimensional Fund Advisors . It's my personal opinion (I'm a factor skeptic) that if the effects claimed for factor-informed investing were rob...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Is Wise Not To Factor Social Security/Medicare Into Your Retirement Plans?
Replies: 20
Views: 1561

Re: Is Is Wise Not To Factor Social Security/Medicare Into You Retirement Plans?

I think the prudent thing is to take the best shot you can in your planning, while admitting that it's guesswork. Generally speaking, the baseline prediction is "persistence," predicting that tomorrow will be the same as today, and--rather embarrassingly to forecasters--very few prediction...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 02, 2015 8:38 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: bogleheadism == Vanguard?
Replies: 65
Views: 4430

Re: bogleheadism == Vanguard?

It's a commercial world, and if you don't ever mention any brand names at all you are betraying your audience by not giving any concrete suggestions. You could be concealing a brand prejudice, for example by saying something like "I suggest a low-cost total world stock index fund," without...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 02, 2015 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “If you want to make a lot of money, you need volatility, and you need volatility to go your way."
Replies: 10
Views: 1444

Re: “If you want to make a lot of money, you need volatility, and you need volatility to go your way."

"If you want to make a lot of money, you need volatility, and you need volatility to go your way."

A rather obfuscated way of saying "if you want to make a lot of money, the price what you buy has to go up a lot."
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing
Replies: 29
Views: 2203

Re: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing

...You aren't the only one who doesn't like Managed Payout, read this new article by William Baldwin of Forbes who writes why used the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund, when you can roll your own, save on expenses and likely obtain a higher yield and ending total value of retirement account: http://www...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at gold and Peter Schiff's forecasts
Replies: 15
Views: 1955

Re: A look at gold and Peter Schiff's forecasts

Psssssst. Just one word. Neodymium.
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing
Replies: 29
Views: 2203

Re: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing

In theory, which I find fairly convincing, "other things being equal" dividends shouldn't matter to total return. This seems to be true to a rough first approximation, as shown by the fact that these two funds, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index and Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index have v...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 891
Views: 159812

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Sunshine on Scotland Street, by Alexander McCall Smith.

Don't know if I mentioned it before, but I'm still slogging slowly through The Innocents Abroad, by Mark Twain.

Oh, and I'm also in the middle of re-reading A Christmas Carol, by Charles Dickens.
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Indexed Universal Life Insurance Best Legacy?
Replies: 27
Views: 1230

Re: Is Indexed Universal Life Insurance Best Legacy?

Notice that health issues work the other way around for immediate annuities. In some cases, if the annuitant can document a serious medical condition that limits their life expectancy, the insurance company may offer "medical underwriting"--meaning a higher monthly payout for the same prem...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dickens: "a mere United States security..."
Replies: 5
Views: 820

Re: Dickens: "a mere United States security..."

Simplegift wrote:...U.S. railroad stocks (which comprised nearly all U.S. stocks in the 1840s)...
So that's why there was a Dow Jones Railroad Average before there was a Dow Jones Industrial Average!

Imagine how bad it must have been to be an investor in canals...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's "consider" tabs in "Portfolio Watch" re: international
Replies: 3
Views: 388

Re: Vanguard's "consider" tabs in "Portfolio Watch" re: international

:oops: I screwed up. I was talking about their recommendations for foreign stocks . I didn't realize they were now telling us to "consider" foreign bonds . Yep, you're right. In my account, they are now saying: http://s17.postimg.org/43d5gq7n3/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_08_01_a_las_1_31_48_P...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard's "consider" tabs in "Portfolio Watch" re: international
Replies: 3
Views: 388

Re: Vanguard's "consider" tabs in "Portfolio Watch"

...When did Vanguard start advocating 30% to 50% in their recommendations?... Quite recently. I'm not sure, but I'm guessing just about the same time, Feb 26, 2015, they announced they were going to goose up the international allocations in their target-date funds to 40%. I can personally remember ...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 245
Views: 10753

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

...Sure. I think your view is that the fundamental value itself is uncertain. Either the worst years from the 1800s could repeat themselves, or worse... Not as close as I'd like, but that's part of it. Let me show another picture. I have big reservations about the way Otar has shaped our perception...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Indexed Universal Life Insurance Best Legacy?
Replies: 27
Views: 1230

Re: Is Indexed Universal Life Insurance Best Legacy?

Also, thank you for the link, Equity-Indexed Annuities: A Complex Choice. Much appreciated. (the link goes back to this thread for me, but I am able to find it with a quick search.) :oops: Sorry. Fixed now. Should have been: Equity-Indexed Annuities: A Complex Choice You can get an earful on equity...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Indexed Universal Life Insurance Best Legacy?
Replies: 27
Views: 1230

Re: Is Indexed Universal Life Insurance Best Legacy?

...my parents died “insurance poor”. They could not pay premiums in their later years so the policies lapsed... For heaven's sake! And with that experience in your own family you are asking this question? Policy lapse isn't rare. A Society of Actuaries report makes it clear just how common it is. h...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dickens: "a mere United States security..."
Replies: 5
Views: 820

Dickens: "a mere United States security..."

I sort of hate to post this because I detest the meme that "you should invest in emerging markets, because the United States was once an emerging market and look at how well that turned out," but on the other hand I'm too pleased by discovering it not to share it... and, after all, I use a...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?

Shrug. That's the virtue of just being a dumb investor who blindly accepts cap-weighting. I never bought into the emerging markets hype, but was grudgingly willing to accept the measly 18% or 13% allocation (depending on whose definition of emerging markets you use, and that in itself is pretty reve...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors or Fundamentals?
Replies: 38
Views: 1543

Re: Factors or Fundamentals?

Here's one quote from Fama: http://www.plansponsor.com/MagazineArticle.aspx?id=6442461350&magazine=6442461201 Can you give us a nutshell version of your investing strategy? Fama: When I talk to pension fund people, what I start with is the market portfolio. That's always one of the optimal port...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 01, 2015 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2994

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

I would never dream of holding individual long-term nominal bonds, because of inflation risk. The only exception would be if I actually had a known fixed-number-of-dollar liability coming due at some specific known date in the future. I'm not a gloom-and-doomer who believes my great-grandchildren to...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Checkup #2: "ACWX" vs. VXUS?
Replies: 11
Views: 609

Re: Portfolio Checkup #2: "ACWX" vs. VXUS?

retiredjg wrote:...Vanguard mostly uses CRSP...
Vanguard mostly uses CRSP now. They started doing that in 2012. From maybe about 2000 to 2012, they mostly used MSCI, and I'm 99% sure they literally used MSCI ACWI Ex-US IMI as the index for Total International for quite a while.
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2994

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

rca1824 wrote:...Believe me I wish I didn't worry but I lose sleep wondering if my portfolio is optimal or not...
Losing sleep is bad. Sleep is very important. Think about optimizing your sleep.
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2994

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

I don't do any fancy MPT stuff. I divide my portfolio into two broad categories: stocks and not-stocks; high risk, and risk diluter. Stocks are as risky as I care to get, and total market index funds are about the least risky way there is to invest in stocks, so that's how I invest in stocks. 100% s...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 245
Views: 10753

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

...rca1824, I'm going to see if I can state your point of view in a way you agree is reasonably correct, and then I'd like you to see if you can state mine. You believe: ... [description] ... Is that roughly correct? If so, I'd like you to see if you can state my point of view in a way that I will ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors or Fundamentals?
Replies: 38
Views: 1543

Re: Factors or Fundamentals?

...Benjamin Graham (arguably) invented the cap-weighted index... OK, I'll argue. :happy I think it was invented by Irving Fisher, in 1922, in his book The making of index numbers; a study of their varieties, tests, and reliability . But on what principle shall we weight the terms? Arthur Young's gu...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 245
Views: 10753

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

rca1824, I'm going to see if I can state your point of view in a way you agree is reasonably correct, and then I'd like you to see if you can state mine. You believe: Stocks have a well-defined "fundamental value" based on the issuer's earnings and dividend payments. This fundamental value...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor Self Interest?
Replies: 15
Views: 919

Re: Advisor Self Interest?

Looks sane enough to me. Obviously, the Oppenheimer fund is a load fund, so he's probably paid out of that. Also, Fidelity holds a bond inventory--they are probably selling you those bonds out of their own inventory--so it is probably marginally more profitable for Fidelity to do that than to have y...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors or Fundamentals?
Replies: 38
Views: 1543

Re: Factors or Fundamentals?

...In theory why should a cap-weighted portfolio have the highest expected return?... Because, according to Jeremy Siegel in Stocks for the Long Run , Capitalization-weighted indexes... under certain assumptions give investors the "best" tradeoff between risk and return. That means that f...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors or Fundamentals?
Replies: 38
Views: 1543

Re: Factors or Fundamentals?

Well, not everyone is on board with the factor thing, and there are a fair number of skeptics about it. John C. Bogle, for one. I think the reason why factor-informed investing is popular here is that it seems to offer something that could work. It seems to offer a way to beat the market without ass...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon reviews
Replies: 22
Views: 2142

Re: Amazon reviews

I try to avoid reading the 5-star and 1-star reviews. I read the ones in the middle, and pay attention to the actual content, not the rating. "Most helpful critical reviews" are good. I recently was trying to decide whether to buy the hugely-acclaimed 2008 novel, The Story of Edgar Sawtell...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding forecasters accountable
Replies: 10
Views: 978

Re: Holding forecasters accountable

Marc Faber isn't wrong, he's just early.

:twisted:

(I'm joking, folks... I just wanted to get that in before someone else says it and means it seriously.)

Great article, Larry.
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: bogleheadism == Vanguard?
Replies: 65
Views: 4430

Re: bogleheadism == Vanguard?

I think it would be appropriate to immunize the audience by "warning" them that the Bogleheads website is "Vanguard oriented" or even "a Vanguard fan site." I don't think there's an investing website in the world that doesn't have some kind of agenda or other, so they m...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SMAs vs mutual funds
Replies: 6
Views: 385

Re: SMAs vs mutual funds

On general principle, I would not care for anything that made my investment account less transparent, less public, less easy to track with a ticker symbol and thus compare it to the competition. It could be as good or better than a mutual fund but for most participants it would involve a lot of blin...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: bogleheadism == Vanguard?
Replies: 65
Views: 4430

Re: bogleheadism == Vanguard?

Many posts on the forum seem to equate bogleheadism with Vanguard. This is understandable since I think many people land here as a result of company savings programs administered by Vanguard. You cannot control what people post so that is not really an issue but the wiki, which you do control, also...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 245
Views: 10753

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Be that as it is, any efforts whatsoever to estimate or display any kind of error bands around financial data is conspicuously absent. All investment writing assumes that every calculated number is perfectly precise and perfectly accurate... and the vast majority of them involve small differences wh...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 245
Views: 10753

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Yes, it's very unlikely that the Great Depression II will happen On what do you base this conclusion? Were the Thirties the only Great Depression in history? To call it Great Depression I implies that nothing like that had ever happened in the history of civilization. The Long Depression, which inc...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Checkup #2: "ACWX" vs. VXUS?
Replies: 11
Views: 609

Re: Portfolio Checkup #2: "ACWX" vs. VXUS?

Actually, I do believe that Vanguard Total International, fund and ETF, used to track that exact index MSCI ACWI ex-US IMI. I remember it because I once heard a Vanguard rep rattle off "mishie-ackwy-exuss-immie" like it was something kids on playgrounds do with marbles or something. My mis...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: capital one 360
Replies: 9
Views: 884

Re: capital one 360

Capital One 360 was once ING Direct. When I joined up, ING Direct was really offering meaningfully higher interest rates than brick-and-mortar banks. That hasn't been true for... what? maybe ten years? I stick with Capital One 360 because it's familiar, I like the way I can create multiple savings a...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does VTSAX Needlessly Holds Too Many Stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 1456

Re: Does VTSAX Needlessly Holds Too Many Stocks?

...If you look at tracking error, I bet Vanguard wins (very slightly) even if their ER is a basis point or two higher. The very slightly higher ER is likely just a (slightly) more honest disclosure... Look at my charts and numbers. In the time SCHB has existed the two growth charts have been basica...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates
Replies: 40
Views: 3645

Re: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates

...When first designing my portfolio 25 years ago (50% stocks/50% bonds), my understanding was that high-quality bonds served three purposes in the passive portfolio: 1) Volatility Damper , to balance the volatility of the stock allocation 2) Deflation Hedge , insurance against prolonged declines i...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does % of students from low income households factor when you pick schools for kids?
Replies: 39
Views: 2585

Re: Does % of students from low income households factor when you pick schools for kids?

I believe that humans are strongly influenced by the impression that "nobody" hold certain views, has a certain economic status, a certain level of education, etc. If you put children in a school where they perceive that "nobody" is headed for college, where there are no honors o...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does VTSAX Needlessly Holds Too Many Stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 1456

Re: Does VTSAX Needlessly Holds Too Many Stocks?

Patzer, there are a number of funds and ETFs that follow "broad" rather than "total" market indexes, and thus do almost exactly what you are suggesting. For example, the Schwab Broad Market ETF, SCHB, tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Broad Stock Market Index. According to the summary pr...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 245
Views: 10753

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

...Cash certainly wasn't "safe" through the 1970s. It just looks safe because the denominated amount doesn't change as the buying power erodes. "Cash isn't safe, because it doesn't keep up with inflation" is a bogeyman unless , by cash, you mean literal currency under a literal ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Priorities
Replies: 52
Views: 4186

Re: Priorities

Thanks for sharing that, Protagonist.

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