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Re: Take slightly better job if you had to wait 1 year for 4

....I would not make a decision based upon this. Take the job that you think will be best for you. Those of us who are employed full-time spend a large number of our hours working. I have had jobs where I was bored to death and jobs where the level of stress made me miserable and negatively impacte...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take slightly better job if you had to wait 1 year for 401k?
Replies: 17
Views: 494

Re: "3 Investments Retirees Don't Really Need"

And it should be noted, those three investments are... ⋅ foreign-currency-denominated bonds. "The reason is that you hold bonds to act differently than your equity portfolio--when, in fact, foreign-currency-denominated bonds tend to have a lot more volatility than, say, core U.S.-doll...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "3 Investments Retirees Don't Really Need"
Replies: 7
Views: 1207

Re: An inefficient market creating drag on index returns

Gus Sauter of Vanguard has indicated that he believes their S&P500 fund (and all others I assume) lose 25bps to front running of the index. Owning the Total Stock Market index fund probably minimizes front-running, but that requires you to own a plain vanilla portfolio. If you want to tilt to h...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An inefficient market creating drag on index returns
Replies: 42
Views: 2241

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

He's a sad man if he can't find anything better to do with his time and essentially unlimited money in his 70s than spend hours every day trying to beat the Vanguard bond index fund... (And if he's not spending hours every day, then is he really adding value?) Ah, but I disagree here. Being bond ma...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 24
Views: 1958

Re: ? on proper weights ...

I believe that the mid and small cap portion of the Total Stock Market index is now approximately 35%. This may or may not impact your allocation percentages. But the S&P 500 includes a significant number of midcaps. The S&P factsheet dated "August 29, 2014" says "the S&P...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ? on proper weights ...
Replies: 14
Views: 612

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

This is a joke of a thread. Making fun of folks 100% stocks as if they are committing heresy is nonsense. Most "gurus" recommend trying to create an efficient portfolio. Well over long time horizons 100% stocks are the MOST efficient portfolio. Any point on the line from the MVP (minimum ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 52
Views: 3117

Re: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family

nisiprius There is strong science on human behavior, once someone believes something it literally may not matter if you show them very specific data that they are wrong and in most cases they basically ignore it. They will even interpret tables and charts incorrectly. FWIW I believe nothing anyone ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family
Replies: 69
Views: 6373

Re: Buying stocks

I would like to know how to get started with buying stocks? What is a good place to get a broker? Vanguard? TD ameritrade? what are the steps to get started and start investing? If you are planning to follow the Boglehead philosophy, Vanguard is as good a place as any. Others are just as good, none...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying stocks
Replies: 3
Views: 239

Re: Determining who makes it past age 90?

Guess I'll follow Woody Allen's lead and take up smoking because it will soon be good for you. Sherlock Holmes smoked opium and was one of the smartest men ever. Victoria He did visit an opium den at least once in the course of a case, but it is not clear whether he inhaled on that occasion. He cer...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Determining who makes it past age 90?
Replies: 32
Views: 1676

Re: What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?

1) It showed a "3G" symbol most of the time in Canada. According to this site: http://www.cellphones.ca/cell-phones/samsung-s275/specs/ The phone supports both GSM (2G) and UMTS (3G). It's a bit surprising that it supports both. But either way, both of these should work fine on GSM suppor...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?
Replies: 8
Views: 258

Re: What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?

I have tried Googling... I should know better than to question nisi when he said did a search, but, wondering if Samsung User Manual was seen. Yes, that's the manual that doesn't explain the difference between an SGH-S275 and an SGH-S275M, and doesn't say anywhere what flavors of cell technology it...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?
Replies: 8
Views: 258

Re: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family

....Marketing aside if you are buying consistently more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks (which is the result of higher demand based upon the index formula - not a valuation metric) your future performance will suffer.... This just makes no sense to me at all. If there were evidence that t...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family
Replies: 69
Views: 6373

Re: What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?

Have you unlocked the phone? Most phones sold in Canada will be locked, meaning they will only work on the network you purchased them for. A quick Google search indicates that it can be unlocked, but it isn't cheap. For example, this site says they will do it for $19. (The price is shown after you ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?
Replies: 8
Views: 258

What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?

Is it possible to make a Samsung Model SGH-S275M phone work in the United States? I can't figure out if this cell phone, purchased in Canada, can't talk to U.S. towers or just won't . Bought the cheapest cell phone I could find to use during a trip to Canada, with a prepaid plan (PC-Mobile). The tri...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with Canadian cell phone in the U.S.?
Replies: 8
Views: 258

Re: Once your house appreciates +$250k, sell it?

The house I live in is not an investment. I can't imagine having the market "evicting" me from my house through price appreciation. To me the whole point of owning a house is to be in control of where I live. If I dabbled in real estate on the side, owned rental property, or was one of tho...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Once your house appreciates +$250k, sell it?
Replies: 41
Views: 3059

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Jerome Weidman, Letter of Credit , 1940. Jerome Weidman was a wonderful novelist who seems to be pretty thoroughly forgotten, best known for his 1937 novel I Can Get It For You Wholesale , and for the book for the musical comedy Fiorello ! I'm filling in a few chinks of books of his I've never read....
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3280
Views: 1118484

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court by Mark Twain. I mention it because of the following quote: No sound and legitimate business can be established on a basis of speculation. Mark Twain was notorious for making bad investments so I'm not sure what to make of this advice! A wonderful if flaw...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3280
Views: 1118484

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

In my personal opinion, the case for investing in foreign funds is a) weak, and b) valid--very much as the argument for investing in a total stock market fund rather than an S&P 500 fund is weak, but valid. Personally I think an investment strategy that boosts your SWR by ~.5% is pretty meaning...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1827

Re: Online Security: Are there any sites you do not trust?

I don't think I have any good way to know what sites to trust, and I don't think there's a "trust"-based solution to the problem. I also think that there's a current element in the culture of the United States, that, whether verbalized or not, is held by a majority of citizens, lawmakers, ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online Security: Are there any sites you do not trust?
Replies: 14
Views: 1393

Re: Hello new to the boards [If retirement funds not used up

Hey guys. Quick question. What is the point of investing in a 401k and Roth when it is likely that you will not use up all the money that you saved before dying? Since you don't know when you will die, there is an inherent problem which I call "inefficiency." There isn't any reliable way ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hello new to the boards [If retirement funds not used up?]
Replies: 16
Views: 732

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

"Everyone knows" that interest rates must go up real soon now. They still haven't, years after Everyone Knew they had to... It's even weirder than that. The 10-year rate DID go up, May-Sep 2013, from 1.5% to 3% and it only caused a minor ding in bond funds, so people who were expecting a ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 24
Views: 1958

Re: The Extreme Outliers of the Investment Universe

I think there have been statistical calculations to show this with Siegel being one of them. The other observation by Buffet is that if most of the monkeys come from the same zoo then there may be something about the zoo of Graham and Doddsville. The only observation I have is there are others who ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Extreme Outliers of the Investment Universe
Replies: 31
Views: 3199

Re: Going all into Emerging Markets

selftalk wrote:Could the next big thing be commodities of all kinds ? They`re pretty sold out now.
I don't look for the "next big thing." I settle for the "always medium thing."
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going all into Emerging Markets
Replies: 69
Views: 6905

Re: Going all into Emerging Markets

There’s more than one way to look at the graph of emerging market performance from 1972-2013. One is to salivate and exclaim: “All in on emerging markets will make me rich!” And it could turn out that way. But here’s another reasonable interpretation. In the early years of a new and overlooked asse...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going all into Emerging Markets
Replies: 69
Views: 6905

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

Bill Gross is 70 years old and Forbes estimates his wealth at $2.4 billion. What odds are you giving that he'll still be managing the Pimco Bond Fund in 5 - 10 years? According to the CDC life table for U.S. white males, the probability of a 70 year old surviving 5 years is 87%, and, for 10 years, ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 24
Views: 1958

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

Why do you care whether you pick the higher -earning of the two funds? Isn't the important thing you pick a fund that is enough -earning? To put it another way, don't you believe that either of these funds would do a fine job of fulfilling the role of a "core" bond holding in a Boglehead-s...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 24
Views: 1958

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

...In theory, market neutral strategies should work brilliantly. Long the good stocks and short the bad stocks. Reality I suspect is a lot more complicated than that... Strategies of "long the good stocks," i.e. active funds, don't work brilliantly. Why is "short the bad stocks"...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 45
Views: 5397

Re: Age in Stocks: Should you have a Reverse Glidepath?

...The linked paper presents evidence that given an equal starting balance, increasing stock allocations in retirement lowers the failure rate... The problem with many such studies is that they go at it backwards. They start from some arbitrarily chosen withdrawal rate first. They should start with...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Stocks: Should you have a Reverse Glidepath?
Replies: 21
Views: 1220

Re: Age in Stocks: Should you have a Reverse Glidepath?

Before advocating high stock allocations for older retirees, one should also take into account a factor: negative "wealth shocks" may be hazardous to the health of the elderly. How wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly Wealth Shocks and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Stock Market ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Stocks: Should you have a Reverse Glidepath?
Replies: 21
Views: 1220

Re: table suggests total bond not best as diversifier

The best diversifier for an investment would be another investment of high expected return, high volatility, and least correlation with the original investment. Given that zero correlation is about as good as you can get among choices of stocks and bonds, then zero is the lowest possible. Given tha...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: table suggests total bond not best as diversifier
Replies: 20
Views: 1898

Re: q regarding VG ER's

Just to be clear. I don't know what the rules are regarding when "gross" and "net" expense ratios need to be broken out separately. Vanguard truly has ultra-low expenses, they don't subsidize the expense ratio, it is what it is, the net expense you pay is their gross expense. Som...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: q regarding VG ER's
Replies: 8
Views: 622

Re: Paper or plastic?

dm200, if you mean what did we use to line trash cans and wastebaskets before grocery plastic bags... why no, we didn't line them. We put trash and wet garbage into bare naked unprotected wastebaskets and cans. Then we dumped them into galvanized steel trash cans. And some of the wet material adhere...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paper or plastic?
Replies: 63
Views: 2524

Re: Paper or plastic?

dm200, it is almost impossible to get paper bags in our area of the country. They must have gotten quite expensive for the stores. First they got thinner and thinner and smaller and flimsier until it got to be downright dangerous to use them for anything but loaves of Wonder bread. Then they simply ...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paper or plastic?
Replies: 63
Views: 2524

Re: Paper or plastic?

Honest question. For those of you who don't ever get plastic bags at the grocery store, what do you use to line your trash cans? I have a small one in the kitchen for non recyclables and another in the bathroom. I'll admit that eventually we end up with more grocery bags than trash, so we could use...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paper or plastic?
Replies: 63
Views: 2524

Re: q regarding VG ER's

The stated "net" expense ratio is what you actually pay and it is what should matter to you... as long as it stays subsidized at the same amount. There could be some legitimate concern that a subsidized ER is a teaser that might be discontinued. It seems that it could happen, but I don't t...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: q regarding VG ER's
Replies: 8
Views: 622

Re: Paper or plastic?

Google News seems to be saying that it is only single-use plastic bags that will be banned. Here in the Northeast, for about ten years now, all of the supermarkets and many other stores have been selling reusable bags, generally for $1, and they are also popular promotional freebies from banks, real...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 9:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paper or plastic?
Replies: 63
Views: 2524

Re: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?

Jebediah wrote:...a different source of return from stocks and bonds...
What "different source" is that, exactly? I don't see any "other" on this chart.

Image
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?
Replies: 18
Views: 1807

Re: table suggests total bond not best as diversifier

It is correct that long-term bonds do have a more powerful diversification effect because, given the same correlation, the diversification effect is largest when the two assets have similar volatility/fluctuations/"risk." source http://funds-newsletter.com/sept14-newsletter/sept14.htm in w...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: table suggests total bond not best as diversifier
Replies: 20
Views: 1898

Re: How wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly

...I wonder to what extent the effects of "wealth shocks" are asymmetric. Does a 10% drop in wealth worsen health more than a 10% increase in wealth improves it?... He seems to be addressing this in a section of the paper about "linearity," e.g. "Table 6 explores the linear...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly
Replies: 4
Views: 644

Re: How wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly

I have received this reply from Hannes Schwandt: In econ lingo "shock" usually refers to an unexpected change of either sign. If we describe how a change in one variable affects a change in another variable without explicitly stating the direction, it usually refers to a positive relations...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly
Replies: 4
Views: 644

Re: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family

...The price indexers are taking is assumed to be fair or close to value. If this is not the case and they are buying overvalued stock, then the indexers are the losers... No, I don't assume the price indexers are taking is close to value. I certainly believe that a lot of the stocks I buy in my in...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family
Replies: 69
Views: 6373

Re: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family

...For some stocks the maker to taker ratio will be 1:1 but for others it could be much more slanted towards the index fund because the flow is an average.... No, it isn't, because most index funds--the giant ones at Vanguard, for example--are cap-weighted, so the flow for each individual stock is ...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family
Replies: 69
Views: 6373

Re: How wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly

I think the abstract is very confusing. It says "A 10% wealth shock leads to an improvement of 2-3% of a standard deviation in physical health, mental health and survival rates." I certainly blinked at that. It sounds like losing 10% of your wealth improves health. The paper says "Thi...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How wealth shocks affect the health of the elderly
Replies: 4
Views: 644

Re: Best broker to build 3-fund portfolio?

If a three-fund portfolio is going to be the core of your investment, concentrate on that first. Choose a broker where you can find three suitable funds with no transaction fees. Examples would include Vanguard's own index funds at Vanguard, Schwab's own index funds at Schwab, FIdelity's own Spartan...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best broker to build 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 1598

Re: When to invest in China?

It may be possible to succeed at speculation, but in order to do it, you have to think something different from everyone else, and you have to be right and everyone else has to be wrong. Generally, you have to invest in something at a time when it really doesn't look like a good idea . By the time m...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1710

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

In my personal opinion, the case for investing in foreign funds is a) weak, and b) valid--very much as the argument for investing in a total stock market fund rather than an S&P 500 fund is weak, but valid. The case is overstated by e.g. fund companies with products to sell, who are trying to ov...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1827

Re: short term investment as of today...

You didn't include TAXABLE bond funds, and your use of the phrase "online money market" is confusing--in part because the name "money market deposit account" is (intentionally?) confusing. You of course mean "the highest-rate online bank savings account you can find." A...
by nisiprius
Sun Aug 31, 2014 9:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: short term investment as of today...
Replies: 8
Views: 549

Re: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?

The big difference was the management change in late 2010. The longer term performance was poor but that was because the manager/strategy was different. The new manager (Vanguard quant group) has developed a true hedge fund and the performance since they took over shows. Now you can quibble with th...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?
Replies: 18
Views: 1807

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

I'm going to nibble here and there at Stocks for the Long Run , by Jeremy Siegel, 5th edition, 2013. It's actually hard to know how to approach a new revision of a book you've already read. This seems to have a fair amount of new material in it. I want to give him credit right off the bat. In the pa...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3280
Views: 1118484

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

Just a bump from a previous thread. Vanguard has brought the management of this fund in-house beginning in 2011 and turned it around pretty well. The performance has done very well and the expense ratio is only 25bp. So you are getting in fact a real hedge fund (volatility in the 3 - 4% range) for ...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 45
Views: 5397
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