Search found 28190 matches

by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K
Replies: 19
Views: 2220

Re: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K

Interesting numbers. I am wondering what if the funds are compared with index funds with similar style. Probably very good. My employer's 401(k) fund was always predominantly populated with funds rated 4 and 5 stars by Morningstar. They didn't put funds into the plan if they hadn't had good past pe...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nothing is something worth doing
Replies: 10
Views: 612

Re: Nothing is something worth doing

Actually, no. I followed Larry Swedroe's advice and did something: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2610316#p2610316 Yesterday's RBD required me to rebalance by buying. This morning's big gain required me to rebalance by selling. Whoa. Livesoft, how wide are your rebalancing bands? ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund
Replies: 31
Views: 2184

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund

I haven't looked yet, and I'm committing to posting before I peek. Right now, we have a reasonable sort of real-world test on the actual amount of risk that is embodied in the underlying portfolio of the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund. I am ignoring the question of whether the smoothing function makes...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund
Replies: 31
Views: 2184

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund

With all the automated roboservices, it seems to me that the next frontier would be to automate a payout strategy on a portfolio, but I don't think that's available yet from anybody... not Vanguard, not the Wealthmints of the world... as far as I know. Betterment has it. And it seems pretty nice to...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 61
Views: 3104

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I think you were wrong to sell them all. If you felt absolutely compelled to do something, you should have considered making the smallest, gentlest, most gradual adjustment that would relieve the pressure. One of my personal absolutes is "no big sudden changes in asset allocation, not never, no...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?
Replies: 13
Views: 813

Re: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?

...So it seems like you agree with the logic that instead of buying VTSAX and being locked into the market on example day Tuesday, one could potentially get a better price by holding off and applying the following rules to the ETF: 1) Look at price of VTI on Tuesday and buy if the price has dropped...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?
Replies: 13
Views: 1688

Re: Why did the markets recover from the 10% loss last October?

livesoft, I don't know if your post is Socratic, but I have to say that I had completely forgotten that there had been a 10% drop last October. The last one I actually remember was 2011--that's when this "U.S. stocks in freefall" thread started--but I don't remember what was being said abo...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?
Replies: 16
Views: 1733

Re: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?

bene1 wrote:...Why buy a 1-4 year, when you'd still get a better effective rate on a 5 year after an early withdrawal penalty?...
I have to open the can of worms: because you probably do not know for sure that the bank will allow you to make the early withdrawal.
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?
Replies: 13
Views: 813

Re: Is there a greater probability of buying low with ETFs than mutual funds?

I think the answer is pretty simple. If you believe that intraday price movements follow a random walk, the answer is no.

If you believe prices follow a predictable pattern that is not random, and that you can predict it, the answer is yes.
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 55
Views: 2389

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

It's critical to understand whether an outperformance claim is based on "risk" or "behavior" (or what portion of the claimed outperformance is attributed to each component). If it's based on risk, then on the one hand it doesn't challenge the efficient market hypothesis. But, on ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So-called charity won't delete my name
Replies: 28
Views: 2013

Re: So-called charity won't delete my name

To all the people suggesting mailing heavy things in business reply envelopes: have you really seen any? It seems to me that it's been a good decade since charities used them. All the solicitations we have now just have a little printed square that says something like "Your stamp helps us fight...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 42
Views: 1529

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Nothing is certain. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stocks are fairly priced, so over the long term any asset class is likely to converge on a similar level of returns, so you can't generalize that one will do better than the other consistently. That's not what market efficiency means...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 42
Views: 1529

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

Finding some very contradictory information on this community. Some people are saying you should hold small, value, emerging, etc. for higher returns others say you should hold cap weight because cap weight is efficient. Yes. Which side is right? I don't know. Don't trust people who are too confide...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?
Replies: 16
Views: 1733

Re: What is the benefit of a CD ladder today?

I once had a CD ladder at a time when the yield curve was quite steep. The way I expressed the benefit to myself was that "There's always 25% of my money that's no more than 6 months away." That is, to me, the rate of the 24-month CD was attractive; --I wanted more liquidity than I could g...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 47
Views: 4596

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

Doesn't investing directly in emerging markets violate the 3-fund portfolio? The three-fund portfolio isn't a rule, and can't be violated. If you like, the rules that could be violated are those that form the Bogleheads investment philosophy , all of which are comfortably vague and allow a lot of r...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K
Replies: 19
Views: 2220

Re: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K

I think "funds offered in his 401(k)" is a very relevant and fair datum to use. Good idea. It is also a very good indicator of the funds he is always bringing up, without naming them, as examples. As to how to evaluate them fairly, that's obviously a separate question, and not easy to answ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So-called charity won't delete my name
Replies: 28
Views: 2013

Re: So-called charity won't delete my name

???? "Project C.U.R.E." with periods after the letters looks legit. They also do not appear to have any specific diabetes-related programs. I'm guessing the scam is claiming an association with a diffently-named, misleadingly-named umbrella organization?
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So-called charity won't delete my name
Replies: 28
Views: 2013

Re: So-called charity won't delete my name

One detail. If you actually want to take the time to get a government agency to take action against them, you need to be sure you can give that agency a good clear paper trail showing that you did request that they remove your name from the list and that they didn't do it. For example, did you make ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 47
Views: 4596

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

Once again, I found something different from what I expected to find. That happens a lot! On the face of it (and I do think "investor returns" mean something), Morningstar's "investor returns" for the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund, VEIEX, beat the "fund returns&...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:56 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: [forum running at] Slow speed
Replies: 68
Views: 3594

Re: Slow speed

Apparently back to normal now. Sincere thanks to whomever did whatever!
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 9
Views: 1238

Re: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel

Actually, I haven't been keeping track of his predictions so I don't know if he's made enough different ones that you can just select the impressive one, but this one is pretty impressive: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/siegel-expect-stock-market-correction-132414918.html December 9, 2014 9:03 AM Lon...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 9
Views: 1238

Re: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel

Wake me up when Professor Siegel warns about frothy valuations and an overheated market.
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 55
Views: 2389

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

Larry, I am sure that the human-judgement-based stock pickers do not claim infallibility, either, and claim only that by using judgement they are likely to achieve better results than by indiscriminately picking all the stocks that meet some rigid criterion. And I am sure that the astrology-based st...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?
Replies: 25
Views: 1585

Re: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?

If you pay off your bill every month and the balance is never very large, credit utilization would not be very high, would it?

If you never incur a finance charge, do you have any credit utilization at all?
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?
Replies: 25
Views: 1585

Re: what could cause a credit score decline if no obvious issue on credit report?

Question: I have several cards that I do not use anymore and considering closing them. Does that negatively affect my score? Yes, quite likely. Primarily because it raises your credit utilization percentage. Maybe not by much. I have the impression that people exaggerate this, perhaps because credi...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week
Replies: 21
Views: 1328

Re: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week

A 10% drop is a "panic" time? Really? (For comparison, stocks dropped 34% during the "Panic of 1907.")
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week
Replies: 21
Views: 1328

Re: bid and asked prices in panic times like this past week

Let's enumerate the number of ways that an ETF provider gets paid... Interesting, thanks. Here, some bit of criticism applies to Vanguard too. Vanguard should not just start listing every flavor of ETF. So I am not in favor of them opening a China ETF, a Macau ETF, a Taiwan ETF, etc. What's next? W...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?
Replies: 21
Views: 1375

Re: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?

P.S. If you are serious about going through with it, there is a step I would personally take, although it seems weird. I would simply call the IRS and ask. If in fact this really is a routine no-problem situation they will say so, and give you the names and numbers of the forms that need to be filed...
by nisiprius
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?
Replies: 21
Views: 1375

Re: "Buy" a Funded 529 Account from a Relative?

...He proposes that we pay him a lump sum... ... now ... ...and in return he names one of my kids as the beneficiary of his account. ... later . And that's why I think it's problematical. Forgetting all details, the essence of the situation is that you are paying a (biggish) chunk of dough now, in ...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone use a different target retirement year then when they will retire???
Replies: 18
Views: 1256

Re: Anyone use a different target retirement year then when they will retire???

Nisiprius: You must be a very conservative investor if you thought Fidelity Target Date funds were too aggressive. I am. However I'm not outside the (amazingly wide) range that Morningstar shows for "conservative/moderate/aggressive" glide slopes. Target date funds historically: T Rowe Pr...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 4074

Re: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?

When answering the original question, "Will SPIA be better with higher interest rates?" The obvious answer is of course they will, but that don't necessarily mean, that the best course of action is to wait until then.... +1 The payouts will almost certainly be higher. They were higher whe...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville
Replies: 12
Views: 1100

Re: The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville

...I am sorry what I meant to say, could one expect to do better (in an expected value sense) by holding value funds?... Nobody knows. It's a frequent topic of debate. Buffett doesn't write a lot. "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville" was written in 1984. I don't think anyone shou...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone use a different target retirement year then when they will retire???
Replies: 18
Views: 1256

Re: Anyone use a different target retirement year then when they will retire???

When I was using the Fidelity Freedom funds because they seemed like the least-bad alternative in my 401(k), I used a fund with a year ten years earlier than my retirement date, because I thought the funds were too aggressive. I have to say though that it is psychologically troubling to have the &qu...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)
Replies: 16
Views: 1177

Re: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)

The Working Group on Financial Markets apparently exists, and if you read the linked Wikipedia article you will know as much as I know. Of course the obvious answer is "Just think how much worse 2008-2009 would have been without the Plunge Protection Team!" Wikipedia actually links to an o...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mom and Pop and the Pros
Replies: 2
Views: 563

Re: Mom and Pop and the Pros

Classic, classic, classic!
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dipping into the emergency fund for rebalancing purposes during market downturns?
Replies: 29
Views: 3275

Re: Dipping into the emergency fund for rebalancing purposes during market downturns?

You're more likely to lose your job during a bear market crash, so I would never invest an emergency fund during a downturn. What if you throw in half your emergency fund, then we continue to drop another 30%, AND you lose your job? Single data point: I lost my own job in October, 2008, as it happe...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 2212

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

...And I believe Bogle's done very well in his son's Bogle Small Cap Growth fund over these years... As Casey Stengel said, "you could look it up." It's pretty interesting, actually, and a typical example of how hard it is to decide how to regard actively managed funds--a typical case of ...
by nisiprius
Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 2212

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

a) Buffett has beaten the market. b) Therefore, it is possible to beat the market. Ergo: I will beat the market. a) Buffett says he and seven other "superinvestors" were all followers of Graham and Dodd. b) I say that I am a follower of Graham and Dodd. Ergo: I am a superinvestor. a) Buffe...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 2212

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

...Cheap beats expensive in the long- run ; it's really just that simple. Don't take my word for it.Here's what Buffett said in his 1984 speech entitled: "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville." And have you looked at Larry Swedroe's analysis of how the "superinvestors" ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8051

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The trick is that correlations assume a constant volatility. If you increase your volatility over a time period – such as pre/post crisis – the correlation static goes higher. It does not matter if the markets are heading down together or moving away from each other. I'm not quite sure what you mea...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference between Equity Fund and Index Fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 245

Re: Difference between Equity Fund and Index Fund?

You always, always, always need to know more than the name of the fund, so go onto their website or ask for the plan literature and poke around until you are sure. Very seriously, you can't judge a book by its cover and you can't judge a mutual fund by its name. "Equities" is a synonym for...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.
Replies: 22
Views: 2774

Re: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.

P. P. S. Important detail to note. In a way it's a nit-pick, but in another way it is serious. It should show you that people aren't very careful about how they handle this kind of data. The caption is "Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500" and it goes back to 1870. Don't you feel a slight naggi...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.
Replies: 22
Views: 2774

Re: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.

Of course, there's a dual problem. I once thought that the grand key to investing certainty could be found in long-term data, if only you could go back far enough. The problem is that on the one hand, with shorter periods of time, variability of financial data is so incredibly intractable that avera...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.
Replies: 22
Views: 2774

Re: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.

rca1824 you're asking good questions and trying to look at data for yourself. I don't want to get into dueling data, but you probably should read Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run . I think he's a cheerleader for stocks and I think he puts optimistic spin on things, but I trust his honesty on ...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So Is Now The Time To Buy?
Replies: 21
Views: 861

Re: So Is Now The Time To Buy?

Stop thinking in terms of "is now the time." Stop thinking you know. You could go back and find times in the past when the pattern of recent price moves preceded a "good time to buy" and others that preceded a "bad time to buy." Would you have judged that this was a &qu...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 2212

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

I have no confidence in my personal ability to judge valuations. At any given point in time, even after I throw out the nutcases and the axe-grinders and listen to only people I really respect... ...there are many convincing experts telling me that things are "cheap" and others telling me ...
by nisiprius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is king over short-term bonds
Replies: 61
Views: 5491

Re: Cash is king over short-term bonds

I don't think it can possibly make much difference. And I'm not sure who, apart from mutual fund companies that sell short-term bond funds, has ever said that short-term bonds are superior to the best forms of "near-cash." Even the mutual fund companies have tended to be evasive and avoid ...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you diversify?
Replies: 24
Views: 2670

Re: How do you diversify?

I believe that within any market, the market itself represents the maximum possible "diversification" and therefore a cap-weighted total market index fund represents the maximum possible diversification. I am therefore very comfortable investing in Total Stock, Total Bond, and Total Intern...
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BNY Mellon's "glitch," sounds very serious to me
Replies: 38
Views: 4549

Re: BNY Mellon's "glitch," sounds very serious to me

I queried a Vanguard public relations contact about glitches in Vanguard funds and he replied that there were "None. We had no issues with pricing our funds."
by nisiprius
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BNY Mellon's "glitch," sounds very serious to me
Replies: 38
Views: 4549

Re: BNY Mellon's "glitch," sounds very serious to me

...And remember, it was Sungard that made the mistake when they did a software upgrade over the week-end. BNY Mellon just happened to use them to do the fund accounting (set NAV's)... Got it. Bank custodian diversification isn't the issue, we need to diversify across IT system contractors. Maybe it...

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