Search found 24371 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Opinions - What to do with $50k for 12mos

I would leave it in the bank. The SEC yield of Vanguard Short Term Bond Index fund is 0.80%, and over a time period as short as a year it can and has lost money. http://s7.postimg.org/oo82gllq3/Screen_Shot_2014_07_22_at_10_07_19_PM.png Not a lot of money, but imagine how silly you'd feel, making a m...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions - What to do with $50k for 12mos
Replies: 6
Views: 350

Re: If Argentina Defaults

It is a common fantasy to suppose that you can get an edge on the market by making use of headline news that everybody else knows, too. (How much of an "insider" can BusinessInsider be if I can read it?) In novels, businessmen are always saying things like "What's this in the New York...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 14
Views: 1111

Re: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014

Some of my old TIPS just matured and I am going to roll about half of them over. My order is in at Vanguard. I can't think of anything better to do, it's sorta kinda my plan, and I'm more or less sticking to it. My life expectancy is around 20 years at this point. I don't like the rates on the 10-y...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014
Replies: 14
Views: 1156

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

Remember I said Faber was just repeating a standard "talking point" against index funds? Here is an article published 06/27/2002 by Jon (not the late Robert) Markman: The S&P 500 Is A Mutual Fund--and a Bad One At That The S&P 500 Is Not Passive at All... an eight-person committee ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3354

Re: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?

As many studies have shown, P/Es have some predictive power - above average P/Es signal below average future returns more often than not. You can also use them cross sectionally - in 2001, large caps had high P/Es vs small caps, and small caps did indeed have a run. Today the situation is reversed,...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?
Replies: 26
Views: 1125

Re: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014

Some of my old TIPS just matured and I am going to roll about half of them over. My order is in at Vanguard. I can't think of anything better to do, it's sorta kinda my plan, and I'm more or less sticking to it. My life expectancy is around 20 years at this point. I don't like the rates on the 10-ye...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014
Replies: 14
Views: 1156

Re: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?

Crazy as it seems, I think ignoring it works about as well as trying to act on it. I try to ignore it. To begin with, I think there is a very wide zone of "normal" within which it doesn't tell you anything at all. Imagine a car on a two-lane highway with no median strip. They are not all p...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?
Replies: 26
Views: 1125

Re: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-te

I really mean this, take it seriously: I'm not a careful investor and I am simply stating what is , not as any kind of model or recommendation. Defining my investment portfolio to include mutual fund and brokerage holdings, then my bond fund holdings are 10% short-term and 90% intermediate-term. How...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1049

Re: Joel Greenblatt's "magic formula"

If the Magic Formula works, it ought to work in a mutual fund. Formula Investing launched four funds in 2011 that did just that. Formula Investing U.S. Value Select (FNSAX) Formula Investing International Value Select (FNAAX) Formula Investing U.S. Value 1000 (FVVAX) Formula Investing International ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Joel Greenblatt's "magic formula"
Replies: 22
Views: 5245

Re: With all these recent posts regarding tilts, should I?

Exercise:

1) Re-read Bogleheads® investment philosophy.

2) Summarize briefly what it says about tilting, both what it says about the pros and what it says about the cons.
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With all these recent posts regarding tilts, should I?
Replies: 13
Views: 837

Re: not all value metrics are equal

I wish I knew how to tell the difference between "the literature" and "literature." There's a paper on "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," but is it part of the literature?
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: not all value metrics are equal
Replies: 29
Views: 1261

Re: What to do in a market correction

Nothing. :happy Which prompts the following question. If my plan is "during a market correction, I will do nothing," how should I prepare to ensure that I actually follow that plan? We know that it is common for people not to follow their plan during a market correction. Author and profes...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do in a market correction
Replies: 32
Views: 2943

Re: My quarterly update on 2014's sure things

Beautiful, I love these. It is a real problem having the discipline not to act on what "everyone" is saying. In this forum, Jan 6, 2014 Given that interest rates can only go up, does it make sense to lessen the impact on our bond stake by shifting a portion of those intermediate bonds to a...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My quarterly update on 2014's sure things
Replies: 6
Views: 2015

Re: Vanguard Client Dispute Resolution Dept.

A letter to the CEO should be less than a page long, and the first sentence should say exactly what you want--the thing that would make you happy. I've had very good luck writing to CEOs-- when the thing I wanted was a small refund. (For example, when I felt that Walt Disney World's "MemoryMake...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Client Dispute Resolution Dept.
Replies: 10
Views: 1579

Re: What to do in a market correction

"When in danger, or in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout."
--Herman Wouk, The Caine Mutiny, 1951
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do in a market correction
Replies: 32
Views: 2943

Re: Q&A with the Experts at 2014 Bogleheads Conference

It's endlessly argued, but I think there is a great deal of support in the Bogleheads forum for some degree of "tilt"--expanding on Total Stock, for example by adding extra allocations to small value and REITs. Yet Vanguard's all-in-one funds--Target Retirement and LifeStrategy--do not do ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A with the Experts at 2014 Bogleheads Conference
Replies: 24
Views: 7452

Re: a close look at value and momentum

why in the world wouldn't this excess return on the long side be over-grazed almost to the point of extinction? Since momentum does not require focusing on a small corner of the market like SV, it takes a lot more money to overgraze it. Small value represents a few percent of the market, so there i...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 16386

Re: VG Total Stock Market Index ETF performance?

The performance is going to be virtually identical, as the ETF is merely a special "share class" of the mutual fund. Furthermore, however innovative it was when Vanguard created the first index fund in 1976, a lot of mutual fund companies have mastered the art and you can be pretty sure th...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Total Stock Market Index ETF performance?
Replies: 3
Views: 347

Re: Value Overvalued

On page 5 of this report from JP Morgan, it shows Value stocks are overvalued, and Growth stocks are undervalued compare to their 20 years averages. https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/blobcontentheader/202/900/1158474868049_jp-littlebook.pdf Just want to point that out. This reminds me of a quote from W...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Overvalued
Replies: 23
Views: 2077

Re: Total return chart for Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD

I've used the PIMCO Global Bond Fund (U.S. Dollar Hedged), PGBIX, as a surrogate for what VTIBX/VTABX might have been, for no good reason except that I couldn't find anything else. And to confirm my general notion that dollar-hedged international bond funds are indeed bond-like, whereas unhedged int...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total return chart for Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD
Replies: 2
Views: 525

Re: oil companies more risky

The entire stock market is risky. Sectors (e.g. energy, e.g. Vanguard Energy Fund) are riskier than the market. Individual industries (e.g. oil) are riskier than sectors. Individual stocks are riskier than entire industries. Should we expect the risk to be rewarded? Larry Swedroe has written, in The...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: oil companies more risky
Replies: 8
Views: 1000

Re: Stop Loss on stocks/ ETFs

Stop loss sounds like a great way to minimize risk to the downside. The problem arises when trying to decide when to reinvest. I don't think it even "minimizes risk to the downside." It only reduces risk in situations where the downward drop continues . If you have a stop loss at -11% and...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stop Loss on stocks/ ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 873

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

It would be interesting to find 1950s sources that would speak to the issue of what S&P intended at the time. I've tried casually, with only limited success, to uncover the "prehistory of the S&P," that is to say, what there was before 1957. Innumerable graphs that purport to show ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3354

Re: Stop Loss on stocks/ ETFs

The name "stop loss" sounds great. But it is a fantasy to suppose there's a simple way to put a ratchet effect into your investments so that they only go up. The two-edged sword is that if you set the "stop loss" level low, then it doesn't trip and doesn't protect you. If you set...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stop Loss on stocks/ ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 873

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

...Roadbike seats aren't really the medieval torture devices that they initially appear to be... A reading recommendation for all bicycle riders: "Three Men on the Bummel," by Jerome K. Jerome. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Cnif5EhMR0 “Can you think of any saddle ever advertised that y...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2457

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

It is nonsense, and it is a standard talking point against indexing that people have been dragging out for years. I can't figure out how to read Faber's words in detail without buying the book. But the standard argument goes like this. Assume, without ever stating it , that indexing means the S&...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3354

Re: Social Security Taxes?

...One of the reasons my social security is being taxed is that I have tax-exempt income. Now this is not my exact situation, but consider this: A person collects social security. None of it is taxed. The next year, he has $10,000 of tax-exempt income (line 8b). Now his social security is taxed. Qu...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Taxes?
Replies: 26
Views: 2250

Re: Vanguard Target retirement vs S&P500 indexing

The 2040 fund today is similar to what the 2030 fund was ten years ago. However since the 2030 fund only goes back to 2006, I'm going to to show the 2025 (blue) and the 2035 (orange) funds, and I'm going to plot them along with the Vanguard 500 Index (S&P 500 fund) (green). http://s30.postimg.or...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target retirement vs S&P500 indexing
Replies: 7
Views: 1562

Re: Social Security Taxes?

...That led me to do some research and the taxes on SS did surprise me. On the SS site it indicated that if married and you have income over $44,000 a year, up to 85% of your SS benefit will be taxed... Anyone with expertise on this or actually in this situation care to comment? I think you misunde...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Taxes?
Replies: 26
Views: 2250

Re: Memory foam mattresses - any insight?

Bought a TempurPedic >10 years ago. We like it. It has been more durable than any conventional mattress we've ever owned. Re chemicals, there has never been a trace of odor from it. I can't speak to the question of whether it's any better than cheaper mattresses. It's not for everyone. Most mattress...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Memory foam mattresses - any insight?
Replies: 40
Views: 2519

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

Not realizing that you are becoming addicted to the endorphin rush of speculating, until you are hooked. Thanks to jginseattle and Fallible I'm now reading American Sucker , by David Denby. I think it is a better, less guarded account of what goes on inside the head of someone who gets acculturated ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9132

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

American Sucker , by David Denby. The author got caught up in the tech boom and bust. Here's a New York Times review... http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/25/books/a-fool-and-his-money.html Thanks for mentioning this book, which I just read. Thanks to both of you, I'm halfway through and can't put it d...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3097
Views: 990865

Re: USPS Shipping Problem Again

(Shrug) I've personally never had a problem with USPS, and I've had two problems with Fedex, one a real nightmare. Stuff happens. (Correction. I HAVE had problems with USPS, but only with the strange hybrid "UPS mail innovations" ultracheap service that sends packages part of the way by UP...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USPS Shipping Problem Again
Replies: 19
Views: 841

Re: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?

Rick Ferri's blog posting, To Tilt or Not To Tilt seems to me to be making an implicit recommendation when he says The fund I currently use in client portfolios is the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (ticker: IJS). Another fund I like is the PowerShares Fundamental Pure Small Value Portfolio...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?
Replies: 18
Views: 2089

Re: How much energy does water heater use when I'm not home?

A thought. Others have suggested turning the setting all the way down. Check the instruction book for the water heater. If you don't have it, go online, search, and download it. It would not surprise me at all to find that ALL the way down is actually "Off." Just a wild guess, but lots of ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much energy does water heater use when I'm not home?
Replies: 32
Views: 2660

Re: Large Cap Value -- worth the effort?

1) I don't tilt, myself.
2) If I did, I would probably consider the Coffeehouse Portfolio (Bill Schultheis) and it does include large-cap value:

10% each
US large cap stocks
US large value stocks
US small cap stocks
US small cap value stocks
US REITS
International stocks

40%
US intermediate bonds
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large Cap Value -- worth the effort?
Replies: 8
Views: 1099

Re: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH

Nice, Larry. ...[Grantham] believes that professionals should do better precisely because the market is full of major league inefficiencies... They should, but do they? Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep. Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come when you do call f...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH
Replies: 16
Views: 2135

Re: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?

What would 100% in Vanguard Target Retirement Income Be? 69%--until the next time they decide to jigger it. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0308&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 √ 39% Total Bond, check √ 21% Total Stock, check x 17% Short-Term Inflation Protected x 14% Total Internat...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1634

Re: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?

I don't consider "cash" to be either part of, or a departure from, the 3-fund portfolio, and I consider short-term bond index, short-term inflation-protected bond index, and I bonds as "cash." So, excluding those: a) All my stock holdings are Total Stock and Total International; ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1634

Re: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS

Forgive me for not answering your question and for answering a question you didn't ask. In my opinion THE BIG difference between the two, and I mention it because for some reason a lot of people don't understand this, is that I bonds have no interest rate risk . This makes them significantly less ri...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS
Replies: 17
Views: 1938

Re: Help with Title/Author of Science Fiction Novel

Very disturbing: I've read "The World of Null-A" several times, once as a kid, once within just the past couple of years... and didn't recognize it from that description! Oh, well. I always got distracted by the line: "The problem," Prescott continued, frowning, "is greatly ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with Title/Author of Science Fiction Novel
Replies: 28
Views: 1811

Re: If interest rates would ever reach double digits again

Quite apart from the inflation issue--I once owned a CD paying 13%, but inflation was 10% that year, so big financial deal... It's easy to see amazing opportunities in hindsight, and tell yourself to be alert for the next one and resolve to grab it when it occurs. I think that's a mistake. In partic...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If interest rates would ever reach double digits again
Replies: 36
Views: 2984

Re: If you own a car, do you have a car payment?

I really recommend this maneuver: "when the loan ends, just go on making the payments, only make them to yourself." The first few were financed. They were 36-month loans, and even then we kept our cars for at least 5 or 6 years. These days you'd probably need a longer loan but on the other...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If you own a car, do you have a car payment?
Replies: 103
Views: 5655

Re: Three questions about how mutual fund redemptions work

nisiprius: Amazing! sscritic: Elementary! My dear fellow, you know my methods--apply them! --"The Adventure of the Red-Faced League" Without fussing about what to do when a market value isn't available or current, the key phrase seems to be the first one you bolded: "fair value (the a...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three questions about how mutual fund redemptions work
Replies: 6
Views: 799

Three questions about how mutual fund redemptions work

1) I believe that there isn't any bid-asked spread, none at all. For example, Morningstar says "bid-ask spreads aren't an issue for mutual fund buyers and sellers, at least not directly, because the fund is priced just once a day, and everyone pays and receives that same price." I believe ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three questions about how mutual fund redemptions work
Replies: 6
Views: 799

Re: Insurance Inflation ?

Don't be mean! <--Pun. Joke. Ha ha.
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Insurance Inflation ?
Replies: 14
Views: 799

Re: Poll - Do You Read Businessweek?

Well, you know, if it's a doctor's waiting room and the choice is "Businessweek," "Highlights for Children," or "Martha Stewart Living..."

However, if they have "Medical Economics" I'll go for that one every time.
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll - Do You Read Businessweek?
Replies: 28
Views: 1810

Re: Leo Tolstoy, a Boglehead

...06. Keep away from women... :!: Leo Tolstoy: Personal Life ...Tolstoy married Sophia Andreevna Behrs... thirteen children... The marriage was marked from the outset by sexual passion and emotional insensitivity when Tolstoy, on the eve of their marriage, gave her his diaries detailing his extens...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Leo Tolstoy, a Boglehead
Replies: 8
Views: 679

Re: Insurance Inflation ?

You also can do this: take nisiprius's link (in its raw form; English just gets in the way) http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1405.pdf change 14 to 05, say http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid0505.pdf This is the detailed report; as you can see, the 12 month overall medical care inflation was that same 4.3%. Rinse...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Insurance Inflation ?
Replies: 14
Views: 799

Re: Total Bond Yield vs. 5 year CD Interest Rates

...Bill Bernstein, in his new book, refers to these people (CD high-rate seekers) as "clever and aggressive". So far, I've only used a Synchrony 3-year CD ladder to improve the return on my cash... I don't quite understand. Let me speak directly to the my point of complexity. a) For how m...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Yield vs. 5 year CD Interest Rates
Replies: 16
Views: 2247
Next

Return to advanced search