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Re: SIPC Insurance coverage

I think Kotlikoff's views are extreme and probably hogwash. But they go something like this. The SIPC says it can claw back gains from the winners in Ponzi schemes. According to Kotlikoff, that is a serious problem that could affect ordinary retail innocent investors in real life if there is a broke...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SIPC Insurance coverage
Replies: 8
Views: 427

Re: SIPC Insurance coverage

I would read this: https://blog.wealthfront.com/false-comfort-of-sipc-insurance/ In the few instances where SIPC coverage was used recovery of funds was a slow, unlike how the FDIC handles failed banks. I would definitely split up your accounts. As far as excess SPIC insurance look a this 2004 Bloo...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SIPC Insurance coverage
Replies: 8
Views: 427

Re: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?

To ask the obvious question: is there any particular similarity between the PIMCO Total Return bond fund, PTTRX, and the Janus Global Uncontrained Bond Fund, JUDCX, other than having to do with some part of the bond universe and having the same manager? If you bought Pimco Total Return because you ...
by nisiprius
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 1466

Re: Risks associated with investing in Vanguard funds

A clarification. I mis-spoke when I referred to a mutual fund "suspending redemptions." A correspondent explains to me that the Investment Company Act does not permit a fund adviser or a fund board to suspend redemptions. Only the SEC can order a fund to suspend redemptions. What CAN happe...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks associated with investing in Vanguard funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1984

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

The fact is that from 1975 to 1982 the U.S. stock market had a real return of just under 0%. I don't know why entrepreneurs couldn't find "new and unique opportunities to make money" for 17 years--or, if they could, why that wasn't reflected in the stock market. But it wasn't. Plain histo...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 41
Views: 2622

Re: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?

1) The ticker symbol appears to be JUCDX. 2) Morningstar puts it in the category "Nontraditional bond," versus "Intermediate-Term Bond" for PTTRX. Morningstar does not have any information on its duration or average maturity, and claims that is holdings are 67.67% cash, 32.33% bo...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 1466

Re: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?

To ask the obvious question: is there any particular similarity between the PIMCO Total Return bond fund, PTTRX, and the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, JUDCX, other than having to do with some part of the bond universe and having the same manager? What are the goals of the two funds? What kin...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 1466

Re: In theory, market timing = index investing

In theory. I will illustrate. Let's assume the total stock market is compromised of 3 stocks A, B, and C Person 1 is a boglehead index investor. So he invests in the index compromised of A, B, and C One year C goes up 40%, another year B goes down 20%, and so forth. Person 2 is a "smart market...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In theory, market timing = index investing
Replies: 10
Views: 572

Re: Emergency room consent

...A free-standing ER is NOT an urgent care. The free-standing ER has the ability to care for an emergency and is staffed by a board certified emergency doctor. If you need to be admitted or operated on, you are transferred to another hospital. The free-standing ER is also governed by EMTALA, just ...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency room consent
Replies: 61
Views: 2942

Re: Emergency room consent

...A ER with[out?] an ER doc isn't worth much but an ER doc without an ER is also limited... In our area, there seems to be a lot of competition heating up for "urgent care" facilities, and a new one that opened up brags/claims that "Every patient will be seen by a board-certified em...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency room consent
Replies: 61
Views: 2942

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

Could you provide cites to the quite a few people who said that? I read it on this forum. Over and over again and to be honest not going to look for citations. Just look at any thread that discusses SWR (safe withdrawal rate) and enough people start coming out of the woodwork talking about lower re...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 41
Views: 2622

Re: Emergency room consent

This sort of thing is currently an insoluble problem for an individual, in my opinion. There is asymmetric information, asymmetric power, nobody expects you to try to be making decisions--and you are doing so under circumstances of psychological vulnerability, stress, impaired decision making, and n...
by nisiprius
Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency room consent
Replies: 61
Views: 2942

Re: SIPC Insurance coverage

If you mean, if you have $1 million in investments would you have more of it covered by SIPC if you split it across two brokerages instead of one, the answer is yes. The problem is, it's really hard to judge how important it is. To begin with, all the brokerages I've dealt with have private insuranc...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SIPC Insurance coverage
Replies: 8
Views: 427

Re: favorite brand name products

1) Pickett & Eckel slide rules. Non hygroscopic aluminum, Eye-Ease yellow tint, and many logical improvements in the design and layout of the scales over the competition. I will never buy any other brand of slide rule. 2) Eaton's Corrasable Bond. Really erases cleanly and clearly. I will never b...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: favorite brand name products
Replies: 58
Views: 2616

Re: Chartway offers 2.5% 5-year CD, only 90 day penalty!

And, of course, the biggy: the terms and conditions. 1) do they or do they not contain any language about early withdrawals being subject to "Chartway's permission" or "at Chartway's discretion?" 2) do they or do they not say that Chartway reserves the right to change the terms a...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chartway offers 2.5% 5-year CD [with uncertain terms]
Replies: 12
Views: 2112

Re: 'Play Money' - why 5%?

The concept is, alas, lost to historians. Ancient Egyptians used the 5% rule when burying artifacts (as in "if it's lost and forgotten, never mind."). Romans used it when designing aqueducts (5% loss of water, no biggee). Military historians chalk it up to "allowable losses". Yo...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Play Money' - why 5%?
Replies: 42
Views: 1578

Re: Prudent to tilt away from bonds?

"my portfolio is about 65% stocks and 35% bonds/fixed income." I would ask these questions. 1) What interest rate do you think matters? Why are you personally concerned about the Fed overnight rate? 2) What happened in 2013? Did you notice anything about your bonds? Were you aware that the...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Prudent to tilt away from bonds?
Replies: 4
Views: 505

Re: 'Play Money' - why 5%?

I don't think there's any rationale for it, except that if you are investing in stocks as conservatively as possible, you are already expecting to see 1% fluctuations day to day--the standard deviation of daily S&P 500 returns is 1%. And you should expect experience numerous short-term drops of ...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Play Money' - why 5%?
Replies: 42
Views: 1578

Re: R u selling PIMCO bond fund

If I bought an actively managed fund, at the time I bought it I would write down my expectations and plans. In particular, I would write down whether I was hitching my wagon to a star--that is to say, buying the fund in order to get the presumed alpha-generating skill of a specific, named manager. I...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: R u selling PIMCO bond fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1421

Re: Risks associated with investing in Vanguard funds

Does Morningstar need to have anything "reported to them?" Surely all mutual funds are required to disclose their holdings quarterly. Furthermore, as far as I can tell all the ones I've looked at do so in a machine-readable format called XBRL. I don't know if that's voluntary or mandatory ...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks associated with investing in Vanguard funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1984

Re: Risks associated with investing in Vanguard funds

Most of the possible "black swan" issues involved with Vanguard funds are simply the same as the "black swan" issues involved with holding mutual funds. To a limited extent I trust Vanguard as a straightforward, conservative, prudent outfit. That's just brand loyalty but I have a...
by nisiprius
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks associated with investing in Vanguard funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1984

Re: what is risk?

"Risk" has numerous definitions... which are often manipulated for rhetorical purposes. The reasons why "risk" is often equated with volatility is that this is the way it is used as a technical term in financial economics. It is similar to the word "power" which can mea...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 84
Views: 2858

Re: Stamps cheaper at Staples than at USPS ?

Ponzi's scheme involved his discovery of pricing differences on international postal reply coupons that in theory could be arbitraged to produce profits. In practice it wasn't feasible to buy them in the quantities needed to make the scheme actually work, and selling them was even more problematical...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stamps cheaper at Staples than at USPS ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1206

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Thought I'd see how janus.com is presenting things. How would you read this expression? http://s28.postimg.org/odw55glil/Captura_de_pantalla_2014_09_27_a_la_s_1_41_34_P.png Something about that is nagging at my right brain... I think I know what it is... How do you read it if you look at the eyes an...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 7951

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

...Nice call nisiprius -- this is the unpleasant surprise PIMCO investors are now facing ( and there's no such thing as an expected surprise, is there ?) Thank you, thank you. Aw, shucks. T'warn't nothing, really. And, let's be clear, it really t'warn't . This is how people get undeserved reputatio...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 5709

Re: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?

Having decided that perpetual motion is bunk, I see no reason to spend time investigating each and every one of the "overunity" engines you can see running and generating free energy on YouTube. Maybe one of them is real and I'm missing out, but I'm willing to take that chance. Having deci...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?
Replies: 15
Views: 1066

Re: Vanguard ETF and fund

Oh, I forgot that at one time it was very convenient for my wife to have checkbook access to her Vanguard bond mutual funds. That is, she has a physical checkbook and she can write a check to anyone that draws directly on the bond fund. Can't do that with an ETF.
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ETF and fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1053

Re: Vanguard ETF and fund

fatguy, I think you are correct and are not missing anything important. There are small details that amount to convenience and personal preference, no more. See ETFs versus mutual funds for a succinct summary. I have enough for Admiral shares, it got WAY easier when they dropped the minimum to $10,0...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ETF and fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1053

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Even Jack Bogle was taken aback by this news: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/gross-pimco-departure-is-industry-s-loss-bogle-bmTAKjseTCOhjXDbRaMxbw.html I love it: Bloomberg interviewer: "Can you imagine those who are still with him or were with him up until this morning, at PIMCO, can you imag...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 7951

Re: What's wrong with leverage?

What's wrong with leverage is that a) it exceeds most ordinary retirement savers' risk tolerance, and that b) there's good anecdotal evidence that many people who think they can tolerate it are overconfident. In order to use leverage, one must sign a legal agreement that typically says something lik...
by nisiprius
Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with leverage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1087

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

What's so hard to understand about this? The word planning is emphasized because of the great uncertainties in the stock and bond markets. Mid-course corrections likely will be required, with the actual dollar amounts withdrawn adjusted downward or upward relative to the plan. The investor needs to ...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3740

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

I think this qualifies as "Increasingly erratic behavior" Bill Gross's April Investor newsletter was essentially an ode to his dead cat. http://www.pimco.com/en/insights/pages/bob.aspx No, it wasn't. Four paragraphs about his cat Bob, then eight paragraphs about the Sharpe ratios of vario...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 7951

Re: Thank you Alex Frakt and Larry Auton!!

Thank you, Alex and Larry.
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Thank you Alex Frakt and Larry Auton!!
Replies: 11
Views: 1074

Re: [which] toilet paper [from walmart.com?]

When I was exploring frugality options for retiring, the conclusion I came to was that a) toilet paper, despite its impressive bulk, was not an important budget item; b) it's hard to know the real price of toilet paper because of perpetual promotions and sale prices at stores; c) a person with a deg...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [which] toilet paper [from walmart.com?]
Replies: 34
Views: 2437

Re: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell

...I don't know much about the leadership team at PIMCO ex-Gross. Some institutions are known for their teams (e.g., TRP), while others are one-person ponys. Which one is PIMCO?... I don't know much about it either, but here are two indications of how Bill Gross himself presented it. On the one han...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell
Replies: 28
Views: 2211

Re: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell

I have a fairly large position in Pimco Total Return that I'm second-guessing after the departure of Bill Gross. What do you guys think of keeping or selling the fund? I'll start with two caveats: 1. I understand I could use Index Funds instead, and I do in other market sectors, so I'm not interest...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell
Replies: 28
Views: 2211

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

1) Taylor Larimore, Safe Withdrawal Rates ? Complexity vs. Simplicity I retired in June of 1982 at the age of 57. We had about a $1 million dollar portfolio to last us the rest of our lives. I didn't know about safe withdrawal rates (the Trinity Study wasn't published until 1998). We had no computer...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3740

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Folks, we don't know the truth and never will. We will learn the likely truth soon. :!: :?: :D "Never" is a long time. I suspect we won't know the truth until enough time has passed that it doesn't matter to investors. But as long as we're speculating :) there's a third possibility. I don...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 7951

Re: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment

Do I understand correctly that Betterment uses pairs of ETFs that for most purposes can be considered almost interchangeable, and does tax-loss harvesting by doing massive switches from one into the other? I've read that isn't any definitive statement by the IRS of what constitutes a wash sale, and ...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment
Replies: 49
Views: 4938

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

:!: :!: :!: :!: :!: :!: :!: My oh my oh my. So, this is where I don't "get" active funds. If you are holding, not even the BOND ETF, but good old PIMCO Total Return Fund, PTTRX, what, exactly do you do now? I guess there's a limit to how tightly a company can shackle its employees, and it ...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 7951

Re: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?

I like Matt Levine's explanation, particularly how this reflects how Bond ETFs are quite different from Stock ETFs: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-24/pimco-bought-some-little-bonds That's a great article and a minor revelation. I don't see how it has anything to do with bond ETFs ver...
by nisiprius
Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?
Replies: 22
Views: 1527

Re: History of U.S. Inflation — Appearances Can Be Deceiving

Very interesting, simplegift. Thanks for calling this article to my attention. In a vague sort of way I'd realized that inflation had been both moderate and relatively stable for the past several decades, but this drives it home. It may not be a coincidence that TIPS (and I bonds) were created just ...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Inflation — Appearances Can Be Deceiving
Replies: 16
Views: 2320

Re: Binoculars appropriate for a 6-year-old?

Thanks to everyone to made suggestions, and thanks to Celia for her insights.
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Binoculars appropriate for a 6-year-old?
Replies: 11
Views: 903

Re: New VG upgraded account feature - shows "in progress"?

How do you go about doing this "upgrade". I have 401K, IRA and Brokerage with VG. Thanks. Vanguard just sent me an e-mail about it today. All I had to do was login to my brokerage account (I don't have a mutual fund account) and click a few boxes. There was some specific information about...
by nisiprius
Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New VG upgraded account feature - shows "in progress"?
Replies: 13
Views: 1014

Re: Risk and the Trinity Study

I don't quite have the time to do it now, but something that ought to be done is to explore what the historical safe withdrawal rate would have been for a portfolio consisting of 100% Treasury bills, using the SBBI data from 1926 to... well... in my case 2009 as I can't afford to buy new volumes ver...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and the Trinity Study
Replies: 33
Views: 1757

Re: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?

Here's something I don't get. The chart I posted for total return of the BOND ETF, showing it growing much faster than the PTTRX mutual fund... well, it's an ETF. So the value is actually based on the market, isn't it? What you see is what someone is actually willing to buy the ETF share for... isn'...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?
Replies: 22
Views: 1527

Re: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?

I hadn't realized the bond market was that illiquid. Quite a contrast to the high-frequency trading on the stock exchange. Is this a disadvantage for bond index funds, since they have to buy and sell constantly as individual bonds mature? How do the Vanguard funds manage this? I guess it is a probl...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?
Replies: 22
Views: 1527

Re: "Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC"

(This post no longer needed now that LadyGeek has merged the threads)
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?
Replies: 22
Views: 1527

Re: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?

Isn't this for their "Total Return Fund" ETF? Isn't there a mutual fund class of this? Wouldn't the same problem apply? Or did it just involve during-the-day fluctuations? RM No. PIMCO has a venerable and extremely successful mutual fund named "PIMCO Total Return," PTTRX, and a ...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC - ETF Returns Inflated?
Replies: 22
Views: 1527

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

I regard Dr. Jeremy Siegel as a cheerleader for stocks who tends to put optimistic spin on things, but I also regard him as an intellectually honest academic whose numbers can be trusted. He has an interesting chart in Stocks for the Long Run , the gist of which is that even if you only buy stocks a...
by nisiprius
Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4027
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