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Re: Newbie considering Vanguard Target fund

I think White Coat Investor is probably doing you a service in stirring up doubts and making you think about possible alternative and just doing critical thinking, but once you've mulled it over you shouldn't be afraid to go back to your first choice, once you're sure you haven't missed anything. Ki...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie considering Vanguard Target fund
Replies: 6
Views: 904

Requiem for Magic Formula fund--anyone know how it did?

This is one of the huge huge huge problems with trying to understand investing in general and mutual funds in particular--survivorship bias. The financial press, doubtless inspired by press releases, gushes over the launch of "innovative" new funds and ETFs. If they don't perform well, tha...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Requiem for Magic Formula fund--anyone know how it did?
Replies: 9
Views: 983

Re: Forced job responsibility putting me in a panic

Toastmasters. Win, lose, or draw on your current job situation, Toastmasters International is extremely helpful and I recommend them highly. The problem may be to find a chapter. It is like a continuous, ongoing series of free lessons in presentation skills, helpful because it is a mutual learning o...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forced job responsibility putting me in a panic
Replies: 32
Views: 2119

Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

Jason Zweig and Jeremy Siegel had a tart exchange in 2009 on the topic of whether 1800s stock market data is accurate: Does Stock-Market Data Really Go Back 200 Years? Yes, Decent Stock Data Really Do Go Back That Far Setting aside the question of whether data from the 1800s is accurate, the big que...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 60
Views: 2761

Re: Can we ever expect VG to offer ISV or EMV?

according to Jason Zweig, "All told, FTSE Group, MSCI, Nasdaq, and S&P Dow Jones - four of the leading index providers - say they calculate returns on more than two million separate indexes." Vanguard currently offers "only" 39 ETFs. Conceivably people could be asking "...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we ever expect VG to offer ISV or EMV?
Replies: 18
Views: 1567

Re: A Dictionary and a World Atlas: Recommendations?

The Random House Dictionary, 2nd edition, is the best dictionary I've ever had. It has everything that you could want: colleges, foreign languages, atlas, constitution, etc. I also own the American Heritage dictionary, which does have helpful usage notes. But if you want usage guidance, you should ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Dictionary and a World Atlas: Recommendations?
Replies: 14
Views: 770

Re: A Dictionary and a World Atlas: Recommendations?

I've always been fond of Goode's World Atlas , published by Rand McNally, but not often stocked in bookstores. It is a fairly small atlas and quite handy, maybe 8-1/2 by 11 by an inch thick, and the maps are quite beautiful (in opinion). What makes it good is that it has dozens and dozens and dozens...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 21, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Dictionary and a World Atlas: Recommendations?
Replies: 14
Views: 770

Re: Can we ever expect VG to offer ISV or EMV?

JamesSFO wrote:ISV = International small value?
EMV = emerging markets value??

???
ISV = International Standard Version of the Bible.
EMV = the credit card system used in Europe.
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we ever expect VG to offer ISV or EMV?
Replies: 18
Views: 1567

Re: Q&A with Jack Bogle at 2014 Bogleheads Conference

Mr. Bogle: the dollar difference between, say, Schwab Total Stock Market Index Fund at 0.09% and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, Admiral shares, at 0.05% isn't large and it can be said that it doesn't do much harm to Schwab investors. Yet you have always seemed to see an important "fair...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A with Jack Bogle at 2014 Bogleheads Conference
Replies: 23
Views: 2191

Re: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strate

I am skeptical of "ideas" that have snappy short completely irrelevant analogies attached to them. They are sort of mind-numbing things that can be quickly tossed in in a place where a reason ought to do. "Why are you doing this?" " 'Because' it's my dry powder." It sou...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 27
Views: 2187

Re: POLL: what's the deal with Tuna Fish?

I like fresh tuna and canned tuna. Since canned tuna in water became available I've never eaten canned tuna in oil. A huge problem for me is that I do NOT like tuna in which the ingredients list shows anything but tuna, salt, and water; five to ten years ago "they" started to add vegetable...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: what's the deal with Tuna Fish?
Replies: 48
Views: 3100

Re: SPY vs VOO [SPDR S&P 500 Index vs. Vanguard 500 Index]

"The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) has a 30-Day SEC yield of 2.1%, compared to 2.0% for the S&P 500 ETF (VOO)." What's supposed to be "fun" about this? "QQQ used to have the ticker QQQQ." Well, the funnier fact is, it was also QQQ before it was QQQQ as we...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY vs VOO [SPDR S&P 500 Index vs. Vanguard 500 Index]
Replies: 4
Views: 614

Re: SPY vs VOO [SPDR S&P 500 Index vs. Vanguard 500 Index]

One that surprises me: 26. The average holding period for the 2050 Target Retirement Date ETF (TZY) is about 3 weeks Target-date funds are supposed to be bought and held until 2050; who is trading it so actively? (Are institutions arbitraging TZY against the underlying assets?) The big question is:...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY vs VOO [SPDR S&P 500 Index vs. Vanguard 500 Index]
Replies: 4
Views: 614

Re: The reverse world of retirement investing

This might be a misunderstanding. RMD is not a portfolio withdrawal at all... Well, there are various "withdrawal" and/or spending strategies. "Spend only the dividends (and spend all the dividends)" is one kind of withdrawal strategy. It's not necessarily a crazy one, but it do...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The reverse world of retirement investing
Replies: 34
Views: 4067

Re: M* caution on emerging markets dividend ETFs

Using the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as a guide, the emerging markets are a group of around 20 countries scattered around the globe. These economies are more different than they are similar, as each has its own distinct economic and political environment, dividend tax rules, and currency.... This....
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* caution on emerging markets dividend ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1208

Re: Beware Vanguard DOES NOT update all your account values

What, it's not accurate second by second? How am I going to stay within my 0.01% rebalancing bands? <--Irony, joke, etc. I do criticize Vanguard and other services for not even trying to set expectations as to accuracy, timeliness, etc. (For example, one of my little peeves is that whenever I plot t...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beware Vanguard DOES NOT update all your account values
Replies: 56
Views: 4559

Re: The reverse world of retirement investing

... By and large, the more equities an investor has going into retirement, the lower her withdrawal rate should be. Do you have any factual basis for that statement? Simulation runs with Firecalc would suggest otherwise... 4% withdrawal with 75% equities is 94% success rate, 25% equities 79% succes...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The reverse world of retirement investing
Replies: 34
Views: 4067

Re: IRS Lost Electronic Return?

We filed my son's tax his return on February 28 electronically through TurboTax and it was accepted by the IRS. To date he has not received his refund, though we filed four other family members' returns with no problems. The "Where's my Refund" site just says it's processing. He's called ...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Lost Electronic Return?
Replies: 10
Views: 635

Re: Let's say we live for 150 years...

Rick Ferri wrote:nisiprius

That's great! Absolutely. Thanks for posting.

Rick Ferri
You're welcome, and I appreciate your appreciation.
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 19, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's say we live for 150 years...
Replies: 20
Views: 3424

Re: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge

Atgard wrote:I also find it relevant that over time periods longer than stocks or bonds existed, gold has been valuable world-wide throughout several thousand years.
Except that that's not true.
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 18, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge
Replies: 24
Views: 1976

Re: Harvest Krane Intermediate Bond Fund

What you may be missing is that interest rates have already increased . I don't care about the overnight lending rate, I care about the interest rate over periods of time similar to the maturity of the bonds in my Total Bond. This is what happened to the 10-year Treasury rate over the last 12 months...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 18, 2014 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Harvest Krane Intermediate Bond Fund
Replies: 5
Views: 325

Re: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge

*bump* Was searching the forums for almost this exact question. Does anyone know if the debate has progressed any further in the last two-and-a-half years? The scenario in which I am specifically interested is: For a new investor with 90-100% cash position, if they decided to go lump sum instead of...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 18, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs. Bonds as an Asset Allocation Hedge
Replies: 24
Views: 1976

Re: Let's say we live for 150 years...

1) In looking at equities, you have to be careful about survivorship bias. Of the 22 countries included by Dimson & al. in the 2013 Credit Suisse yearbook , 2 of them went to zero sometime between 1900 and today. They weren't zero at the beginning, and they weren't zero at the end, but if you in...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 18, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's say we live for 150 years...
Replies: 20
Views: 3424

Re: Let's say we live for 150 years...

Thanks Rick! Since Universities expect to live for 150 years, their behavior is likely a good clue to how investors would/should invest if they had longer time-horizons. It seems that buying forests is the way to go. On that theory, it would seems that investing their day-to-day operating funds nee...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 18, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's say we live for 150 years...
Replies: 20
Views: 3424

Re: Retirement defeasance

And I don't think you can get zero coupon TIPS, which is what you actually need.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement defeasance
Replies: 29
Views: 2657

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

David, is it the result of bonds in the portfolio literally defaulting, or is it a result of their market price dropping because investors see an impending default, and the fund manager selling at a loss rather than waiting for the default? For example, if a fund manager had a policy of maintaining ...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1698

Re: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper

Thanks, great article. If your stock portfolio varies much from the market weighting, you're probably a backtest victim. A core problem is the publish-or-perish nature of academia, which results in smart people wasting large amounts of time pouring over historical returns looking for patterns. The ...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper
Replies: 31
Views: 1777

Re: How high of an allocation to REITs?

Rick Ferri has an excellent blog post that addresses your questions: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investments/reits-and-your-portfolio/ The 4th paragraph answers a big question of yours, basically saying that if you already own Total Stock Market (which has ~3% REITs), then an additional 10% REIT ...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How high of an allocation to REITs?
Replies: 24
Views: 2835

Re: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?

DFA SV Thanks thx, but what does DFA stand for? Dimensional Fund Advisors. See http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/DFA . The two mutual fund companies most committed, institutionally, to passive investing are DFA and Vanguard. I have never read anything about anyone at Vanguard calling DFA a rival, or a...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2569

Re: global bond index funds

It makes sense for the same reason market cap weighting stock funds makes sense: special finance theory characteristics of "the market portfolio." People can and do argue about this--why do I want to put the most money what are likely the most overvalued stocks, etc.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global bond index funds
Replies: 2
Views: 432

Re: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper

This sounds like a bombshell to me: "Under memory effects, backtest overfitting leads to negative expected returns out-of-sample, rather than zero performance. This may be one of several reasons why so many quantitative funds appear to fail." I need to take the time to actually read the pa...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper
Replies: 31
Views: 1777

Re: I need a new coffee maker, any recommendations?

It's wretchly expensive and I had to replace the wretchedly expensive thermal carafe after about 5 years, but apart from that my Technivorm Moccamaster has been completely satisfactory. I used to use expensive Gevalia Stockholm Roast brewed in a Mr. Coffee. Now I use cheap Folger's Classic brewed in...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I need a new coffee maker, any recommendations?
Replies: 60
Views: 2267

Re: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?

Actually you are in luck as I believe Larry Swedroe is just about to publish a book about on this very topic within the next few months. Yes, see this thread.

In general, fortunately, Swedroe is an an unusual surname and just about any kind of search you do will lead you to his books and articles.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2569

Re: Where are the Opportunities now ?

...What did you guys do when Buffett famously wrote the NY times article ? - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=0 Please understand I am trying to understand ideology here and trying to reconcile between 2 different lines of thoughts and investing... I did nothing in partic...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where are the Opportunities now ?
Replies: 28
Views: 1998

Re: Where are the Opportunities now ?

HelloImAMac wrote:... based on some advice from Brett Arends....
He is one of many sources of the noise we are told here that we should tune out.

Don't be an Arendshead.

Reading his stuff is like reading about the latest fashion trends. Pssst... the opportunities are going to be in Radiant Orchid this year.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where are the Opportunities now ?
Replies: 28
Views: 1998

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

...I have seen discussions about the inherent NAV erosion in VWEHX, which apparently is something deliberate on the part of the Wellington managers. I can't remember the exact cause, though I believe it has something to do with managing bond purchases and sales only with income in mind, at a detrim...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1698

Re: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?

As a life long gambler, dog racing easily equates to the highest percentage of gambling-only interest level that I've ever seen. The first time I attended Flagler Dog Track in Miami when I was a junior in high school I couldn't believe how boring it was. I tried to handicap it like a horse race and...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?
Replies: 41
Views: 3769

Re: Doesn't Matter - Does Matter - Good Post by Ben Carlson

Yes, that's really very good. Let me point to this one:
Doesn’t Matter: How much risk everyone else takes.
Does Matter: How much risk you are willing and able to take.
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn't Matter - Does Matter - Good Post by Ben Carlson
Replies: 58
Views: 5195

Re: Why does Vanguard use average return iso compound annual

A Google search on def:average yields the following results. I am going to look at the first ten. I am going to read each one until I come to the first sentence that specifies how to do a calculation. (And I will take the words "arithmetic mean" as specifying that, because, at least at the...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard use average return iso compound annual?
Replies: 99
Views: 4154

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

If you look at real return, correcting for inflation, the long-term charts for 1940-1980 for intermediate-term bonds are quite bad, but the long-term charts for long -term bonds are worse. You can quibble about the pros and cons of TIPS, but locking yourself into a fixed -dollar instrument for two o...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4455

Re: Why does Vanguard use average return iso compound annual

Well, I just sent this via the SEC's "feedback" page . I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for results, but at least I've tried. How would someone request a change (improvement!) in the language mandated by the SEC for mutual fund disclosures? There's a long discussion in the "Bog...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard use average return iso compound annual?
Replies: 99
Views: 4154

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

...When it comes to stock investing, I have heard so many people on this forum say that it is foolish to focus on stocks that pay high dividends, because it is only the total return that matters, and anyone who focuses on dividends is fooling themselves into thinking that dividends are some magic f...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1698

Re: Please Help me understand the 3-fund portfolio

To my original reason for this post, I am trying to understand the basic reason for a 3 fund portfolio. Do people use the 3 fund portfolio because two funds (listed above) are expected to increase if one fund were to fall (for example, if the US Stock Market drops by 30%, do people expect the Bond ...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please Help me understand 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 2254

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

...Would it then be reasonable to take this a stage further and use High Yield Bonds for income later in life, ignore potential capital loss in the same way those who buy an annuity say goodbye to the capital?... I think this is the answer. This is a chart of VWEHX, Vanguard High-Yield Bond Fund, d...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1698

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

In the case of high-yield bonds, if you actually spend all of the dividends, I would be worried about what is happening to the value of the portfolio. High yield bonds "overspend." From a total return point of view, the dividends are some kind of withdrawal from total return. How big they ...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1698

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

I doubt there's much harm or much good in going with 100% treasuries. The question is this: what are the chances that there will come a time when your wife runs across some article in the dentist's office saying something like this article said in 2010: Ten years ago we experienced the biggest bubbl...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4455

Re: Looking for Low-Cost Eyeglass Shop I can visit

My wife has been using Costco for several years and has been very satisfied with them.
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for Low-Cost Eyeglass Shop I can visit
Replies: 25
Views: 1498

Re: making your own will or trust

The real question that needs to be asked is not whether anyone has had experience in writing your own will, but whether anyone has had experience being the executor or heir of someone who wrote their own will . One can say whether one has written their own will, but not how well it worked in the end!
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: making your own will or trust
Replies: 29
Views: 1702
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