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Re: If You Were Going To S. America ...

I haven't visited, and don't have any firm plans to visit, and they are nowhere near Chile but I have to say if I were going to "visit South America" Iguazu Falls looks like a place I would like. It isn't just one waterfall, it's a long escarpment with you-count-them Niagara-class waterfal...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If You Were Going To S. America ...
Replies: 2
Views: 99

Re: Another reason NOT to use (free) Wifi

Well, chalk me up as apathetic, defeated, and fatalistic. I do care about privacy, but for whatever reason the society I live in does not. At the moment, the trackers and marketers simply have the upper hand. It would be a major and life-changing personal statement to avoid the Internet, wi-fi, the ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another reason NOT to use (free) Wifi
Replies: 23
Views: 2197

Re: “How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making?”

Leeraar wrote:...I thought of the test, but wondered if one might not learn the test and then be able to fake it in later years...
F E L O P Z D
D E F P O T E C...
:wink:
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making?”
Replies: 67
Views: 4329

Re: Investing on Margin

Yesterdaysnews wrote:...A stock market crash twice as bad as 2007-2009 bear market seems unlikely to me in the next 10 years...
A stock market crash twice as bad as 2007-2009 seems to mean that it goes to zero. Is that really what you meant to say?
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing on Margin
Replies: 46
Views: 2197

Re: Does anyone use the 50-day or 200-day moving average?

No. I hardly pay attention to any market data when deciding on purchases or sales. When I was accumulating, I purchased when I had money available to purchase--mostly by means of automatic purchases. Now that I am retired, I sell when I need money. I once read a little bit about moving average schem...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone use the 50-day or 200-day moving average?
Replies: 12
Views: 770

Re: Vanguard Balanced Index from Cradle to Grave

The thing that's hard for people to accept is that there is a fairly big zoo of portfolios of which it can be said that they are all sane, that there is no way to prove which is best, and even thirty years from now no way to prove whether the highest-returning one was smart or just lucky. Note that ...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 2:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index from Cradle to Grave
Replies: 23
Views: 1991

Re: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)

...It is well known that the off-diagonal entries in that matrix are weakly negative, i.e., that bond-stock correlation is negative, at least historically... Is it really "well known?" Admittedly my trusty Ibbotson 2010 SBBI Classic Yearbook gets less and less trusty every year and I'm to...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)
Replies: 64
Views: 2273

Re: does anyone have an hour commute (each way?)

The level of dissatisfaction/satisfaction experienced is relative to the quality of the drive. If it is constant stop and go in a place with little scenery, then I can understand why a commute drives people batty. But it it's a lovely, scenic commute, then 50 minutes whizzes by. I can't argue with ...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [new position, facing an] hour commute (each way)
Replies: 44
Views: 2011

Re: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)

...In the special cases it deals with, the Kelly criterion is equivalent to using expected utility with a logarithmic utility function... The interesting thing--Poundstone is very good on this point--there has, all along, been continuing controversy about whether or not the Kelly criterion depends ...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 11:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)
Replies: 64
Views: 2273

Re: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)

As an aside, should the word "temporarily" be "temporally"? Yes. Thanks. Fixed. What is the other book? "Lifecycle Investing," by Ayres and Nalebuff. On first glance, doesn't this type of "strategy" ignore the risk, however small or large, of going totally be...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)
Replies: 64
Views: 2273

Re: Portfolio Optimization software program - Recommendation

Before you go too far down that route, be aware that there isn't even close to enough data to make an accurate estimate of the parameters that need to go into an MPT model, and if you simply take the historical averages--which is about the only thing you can do--you typically get bizarre tangency po...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Optimization software program - Recommendations?
Replies: 3
Views: 219

Re: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)

By the way, I don't think it is a straw man to ask "why not 200% stocks," because of this article (which was cited by "market timer" when he began a course of investments that resulted in his losing $200,000 more than he had). You should be more than 100% in equities when you are...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)
Replies: 64
Views: 2273

Re: 140% Stocks

I've been trying to absorb William Poundstone's book, Fortune's Formula . It is a great book and not at all what I thought it would be (I thought it would be an adulatory puff piece making unverifiable claims of certain people getting rich by being geniuses with a formula). He touches on all the thi...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)
Replies: 64
Views: 2273

Re: Transfer to Vanguard shows "margin" ...

I don't know what goes on behind the scenes. I can only tell you is that in my experience whenever I've done transfers between brokerages... let me see... maybe a dozen times in my life... it has been very common to see weird stuff going on, and maybe three or four times there have been glitches tha...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer to Vanguard shows "margin" ...
Replies: 19
Views: 1321

Re: Glide path design

The one take-home from the glide path studies is that you'll notice that they all have an S-shaped curve that is quite a bit different from the straight-line "age in bonds." They all are almost level up to about age forty, almost level after about age 60 or so, and accomplish most of the r...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 6:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Glide path design
Replies: 27
Views: 1865

Re: Rick Ferri ETF book on BOSCH TV Series

Funny! Obviously not "product placement" because in product placement the product is always positioned to as to catch your attention--if it's a beer the character is always holding the can so that the logo is toward the camera. We watched Bosch , and my wife and I thought it was excellent....
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 26, 2015 5:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri ETF book on BOSCH TV Series
Replies: 8
Views: 838

Re: Your experiences of high inflation periods

I can't vouch for the accuracy but... http://mortgage-x.com/general/indexes/codi_history.asp That source shows 16.691% for October of 1981. It also shows 12.428% for March of 1980. Here's evidence that 6-month CDs existed that were paying 14.96% in March of 1980 or 2-1/2% more than the index. I thi...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your experiences of high inflation periods
Replies: 58
Views: 2403

Re: VIGIX unbalanced?

Being a Boglehead is not about costs and tax-efficiency. It is the adoption of the market efficiency theory. Are Dimension / DFA funds (i.e. Fama & French) Bogleheads? One the one hand, Bogle himself has criticized this approach in his essay on The Telltale Chart , section 5: RTM and "Slic...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 8:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIGIX unbalanced? [Vanguard Growth Index]
Replies: 20
Views: 927

Re: does anyone have an hour commute (each way?)

For about 17 years--two different jobs that both happened to be in the same city--I commuted 40 miles by car each way. The trip typically took about 50-55 minutes on a "normal" day, and maybe 80% of my days were "normal." A 1-1/2 hour "commute from hell" could pop up at...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [new position, facing an] hour commute (each way)
Replies: 44
Views: 2011

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished Dead Wake, Erik Larson's account of the sinking of the Lusitania. Excellent.
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 657
Views: 92239

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I read through the Oz books when PDAs first came out and I discovered that I could load mine with Gutenberg editions. I agree that they stand quite well on their own. Not sure why so many writers insist on putting a spin on them. For an almost creepy experience... try L. Frank Baum's The Master Key...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 657
Views: 92239

Re: Is the 1% Cost of Managing Money Worth It?

steve roy wrote:...My take: The main reason to have a Financial Advisor is to have somebody to talk you out of stupid, panicky decisions...
Is there evidence that they do that successfully?
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 1% Cost of Managing Money Worth It?
Replies: 51
Views: 3681

Re: Your experiences of high inflation periods

My job was never at risk (as far as I know), nor do I recall it as being a period of job insecurity. My recollection is that 1975 was bad, and things had gotten better by 1980. Let me double-check that... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/US_Unemployment_1890-2009.gif It was definit...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your experiences of high inflation periods
Replies: 58
Views: 2403

Re: Selling on eBay with local pickup using PayPal - Dangero

I sold a bicycle for $500 on eBay with local pickup some years ago. (Checking) Oh, wait, correction, it was Craigslist. It was a slightly unusual kind of bicycle, not a road bike or mountain bike, but a semi-recumbent "comfort bike" with a seven-speed hub. It was especially problematical--...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 7:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling on eBay with local pickup using PayPal - Dangerous?
Replies: 22
Views: 1317

Re: Inflation's impact on retirement savings - confused

The only way I've ever been able to deal with this sort of thing is to do all calculations and planning in "real dollars." That is, instead of saying stocks have historically earned 9.5%, say stocks have earned 6.5% real. That said, one of the things that's hard to come to grips with, and ...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation's impact on retirement savings - confused
Replies: 19
Views: 1406

Re: As Cogntivity Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to

Professor Emeritus wrote:
nisiprius wrote:
555 wrote:Apparently the headline writer had had a "Cognitivity Slip".
Put it in the wardrobe with the chastity belt and the paternity suit.
and the planetary gear, so you can have the teeth engaged
After turning the cognition key.
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: As Cognition Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to Go
Replies: 22
Views: 1589

Re: [How do I lead a discussion about saving for retirement?

College students should have no money to invest. They should be flat broke. Then when they graduate, they have other things to do with their money besides saving for retirement. They need to pay for transportation (cars), phones, health insurance, rent, save for down payments, weddings, job searche...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [How do I lead a discussion about saving for retirement?]
Replies: 31
Views: 2613

Re: As Cogntivity Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to

...no, there is no such word as "cognitivity." Yet. This is weird, but just a few seconds after I read nisiprius' post, I re-clicked on the nytimes link, and the headline had been changed from "As Cognitivity Slips..." to "As Cognition Slips..." And neither of us is lo...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: As Cognition Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to Go
Replies: 22
Views: 1589

Re: American Express Corporate Credit Card Collections Issue

It doesn't sound too bad... one thing that you need to do now, and should have been doing all along, is to go into "full-bore recordkeeping mode." That is to say, make notes about every contact and every conversation you've had. Date, and time. If you can get the name of the person you're ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: American Express Corporate Credit Card Collections Issue
Replies: 3
Views: 330

Re: As Cogntivity Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to

That sure is a worry and I'm sure it may be hard to recognize gradual decline or to admit to it. On the physical side I usually go up on the roof to clean the gutters out - my daughter said that wasn't wise - it made me think just because I've done it for 40 years when would I decide not to do it? ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: As Cognition Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to Go
Replies: 22
Views: 1589

Re: As Cogntivity Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to

Well, this not-quite-septuagenarian is still sharp enough to know that there is no such word as "cognitivity." I'd probably better check... OK, if my Merriam-Webster's Unabridged app is correct, a "cognitivist" is "an ethicist who holds that genuine ethical judgements are co...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: As Cognition Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to Go
Replies: 22
Views: 1589

Re: Concentrated Bet ... not bad after all ?

...I do invest in individual stocks ... ones with visionary CEOs like Bezos, Hastings, Late Mr. Jobs etc.... Are you sure you aren't calling them "visionaries" because, with 20/20 hindsight, you can see that they succeeded in making their dream come true? Wasn't Louis Borders a "visi...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Concentrated Bet ... not bad after all ?
Replies: 6
Views: 554

Re: Bond: Mutual Fund or ETF?

Rick Ferri warns of issues with bond ETFs: Solving the bond ETF discount problem . His suggested solutions are: 1) Don’t buy bond ETFs. Stick with traditional open-ended funds that trade at NAV at the end of the day. You won’t have to worry about ETF price swings due to liquidity issues and other ma...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond: Mutual Fund or ETF?
Replies: 31
Views: 1659

Re: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio

By the way, if one holds Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund--each country according to its cap weight--then it actually doesn't matter whether a country's market is classified developed or emerging. A country be could reclassified and nothing about the fund would need to change. It occurs...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio
Replies: 55
Views: 2360

Re: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio

Do you mean as a percentage of international holdings, or do you mean as a percentage of total holdings, counting the United States as a developed market? I'm guessing you mean ex-US and that's how I answered. So-called "emerging markets" aren't a very clean asset class. They are a miscell...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio
Replies: 55
Views: 2360

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

...with prices across a lot of asset classes looking expensive... What do phrases like "looking expensive" actually mean? Is this a matter of perception and intuition? "I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 5627

Re: Terminating ADT Alarm Service

Call your credit card company and dispute the bill. It's worked twice for me when a company wouldn't stop monthly billing to a credit card. In general, when I have some dead-simple you-obviously-goofed-please-fix-it situation, I give the company one chance to fix it. If they show any signs of foot-d...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Terminating ADT Alarm Service
Replies: 12
Views: 1315

Re: Wall Street Week is Back

"Street," with a letter S? Don't you mean...

Wall $treet Week?
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wall Street Week is Back
Replies: 4
Views: 816

Re: Question regarding annuity for my parents

It's not a good idea. The simple reason is that 1) all "variable annuity" products are complicated, hard to understand, and hard to compare with each other, 2) you cannot trust short explanations given by insurance agents, or short descriptions in brochures, and 3) you shouldn't invest in ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question regarding annuity for my parents
Replies: 9
Views: 768

Re: VIGIX unbalanced?

Just seems anti-boglehead....where you really end up with 10-15 stocks eventually making up a large portion of an index and the remaining 350 stocks making up the rest. Not really. First of all, in my opinion, there's a propaganda battle in progress attacking cap-weighted indexing, so keep your ear...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIGIX unbalanced? [Vanguard Growth Index]
Replies: 20
Views: 927

Re: Bonds - why invest in them right now? Can use some help.

Challenge. Before you read to the bottom of this post, search your memory and see if you can answer two questions. a) Can you remember what stock funds like Vanguard Total Stock Market fund did in 2008-2009? b) Can you remember what bond funds like Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund did in 2013? ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - why invest in them right now? Can use some help...
Replies: 10
Views: 1276

Re: 2 million dollar mistake meeting with MIL's financial gu

...You can have fancy software and small errors fed into it will make huge changes compounded over time... Yes. I think this is an extremely important point. Too many of us have over learned the lesson of compounding. It doesn't mean that any time you think you see a tiny estimated improvement in r...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 million dollar mistake meeting with MIL's financial guy
Replies: 23
Views: 4907

Re: Looking for emerging markets fund

...I don't have any emerging markets in my portfolio... Are you sure about that? 1) If you don't have any international stock funds in your portfolio, it would make more sense to add some kind of broad international stock fund to your portfolio rather than investing in pure emerging markets. 2) If ...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for emerging markets fund
Replies: 14
Views: 734

Re: What is a Boglehead?

Mr. Taylor Larimore.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a Boglehead?
Replies: 54
Views: 2483

Re: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses

...This works especially well if the lenses have the anti-reflective coating b/c the coating sheds water. If it's plain plastic or glass, this doesn't work nearly so well... I'd wondered about that. My current pair of glasses does have antireflective coatings and, as you say, water does tend to bea...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses
Replies: 30
Views: 1464

Re: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses

montanagirl wrote:Last month I had my second cataract surgery (I'm now monovision :happy )
By "monovision" do you mean prescriptions that are intentionally chosen for close vision in one eye and distance vision in the other... so that you see clearly at all distances, but only with one eye or the other?
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses
Replies: 30
Views: 1464

Re: System Risk

I'm not an expert and nobody knows what can happen in a "black swan" situation. But I think it's helpful to keep in mind that both brokerage accounts and mutual funds are in the nature of "custody," not "promises." Fears of bankruptcy usually relate to situations where ...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: System Risk
Replies: 15
Views: 1357

Re: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses

Contrary to what that optician says, I probably use terrycloth more often than any other material--but only for drying, and only with a blotting action.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses
Replies: 30
Views: 1464

Re: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses

For a very long time I've been using the following procedure. My plastic lenses seem to last quite well--several years--and optometrists have complimented me on their being scratch-free. Several optometrists have recommended the use of liquid soap (over lens-cleaning solution or premoistened towelet...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses
Replies: 30
Views: 1464

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

I think we can hack it if we can just get at least 0% real.
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4460
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