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Re: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

....http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2015/01/22/fabers-no-fee-etf-and-why-asset-allocation-doesnt ... Interesting . How much you pay in fees matters much more than asset allocation, Faber says. ...Faber compared all these approaches over a 40-year period starting in 1972, looking at real returns (net of...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 846

Re: Reliability of LED televisions?

I suspect the light output of the LEDs might decline noticeably with time--how much of a problem that is I can't say--but of course it was a problem with CRT televisions, too--and, as far as I know, all sources of light generally.
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reliability of LED televisions?
Replies: 16
Views: 751

Re: Poll: Locating deceased person's assets

I have a folder on my computer that is linked to a red icon on my computer desktop labeled "EMERGENCY Look Here" I also have a minder on the shelf above my desk labeled "Financials" where I keep year end statements. I've kept paper copies of all my tax returns since high school ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll: Locating deceased person's assets
Replies: 13
Views: 584

Re: Downside to eDelivery?

Nisi, Can't you solve the problem by saving your (more recent) statements to a CD and telling your heirs where you keep it? That way, everything is up to date and in one place. This falls in the category of "just be organized." First, not everyone is. Second, not everyone stays that way. ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Downside to eDelivery?
Replies: 31
Views: 1460

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy

There's a sort of wise joke that's been going the rounds--I heard it in connection with barbershop quartetting. The story goes by asserting that someone asked [insert famous barbershop quartet here] how they got to be so good. The spokesperson says, "Oh, it's simple. We had a plan. Back in 2005...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 64
Views: 3051

Re: Where do you think the stock market heading this year?

Well, let's see. In this forum, someone recently revived a thread from 2008 that began by saying There is a new CIBC report that predicts $7 gas by 2010. So much for one impressive, authoritative forecast. In April 2014, Bloomberg asked 67 economists what was going to happen to the interest rate on ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you think the stock market heading this year?
Replies: 18
Views: 1220

Poll: Locating deceased person's assets

Extending the discussion on downsides to e-delivery. Naturally this kind of poll is more about provoking posts than about calculating percentages.
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll: Locating deceased person's assets
Replies: 13
Views: 584

Re: Downside to eDelivery?

P.S. I would withdraw my objections to e-delivery if it were easy and secure to arrange for EVERY e-delivery account to email, not just to me, but to a mailing list--myself, my wife, one of my adult children. I rather think that financial institutions do not allow this for security reasons, but it m...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Downside to eDelivery?
Replies: 31
Views: 1460

Re: Downside to eDelivery?

I just started a poll on peoples' experiences locating a deceased person's assets. As things stand today in 2015, going all-electronic puts your heirs at meaningful risk of not finding all your assets after you die and having some of it become abandoned property that "escheats" to the Trea...
by nisiprius
Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Downside to eDelivery?
Replies: 31
Views: 1460

Mean versus standard deviation for the Simba data series

Nothing unexpected here, but I think it's pretty. The values are inflation-adjusted, and the data is from the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, which is annual returns of mutual funds, mostly Vanguard. Years: 1985-2013 http://s5.postimg.org/wu775fvp3/Image_small.jpg The Y axis is (arithmetic) average i...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean versus standard deviation for the Simba data series
Replies: 2
Views: 188

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Who is more authoritative: Matt Taibbi or Wikipedia? In this case, it's an interesting question. I have huge respect for Wikipedia but it's important to understand how it works. Wikipedia is not an authority. Wikipedia is a secondary source that cites authorities. On controversial topics, it is a g...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 436
Views: 56329

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

You know what else is missing? Numbers. He says the effect is "spectacular." OK, how much is that in dollars? How many basis points of excess return does he say can be earned from a strategy using small-cap quality stocks, adjusted to have the same risk as a traditional portfolio? Does he ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 19
Views: 2319

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

At a quick glance, it appears as if Asness, Frazzini and Pedersen do define how "quality" is to be measured, http://www.aqr.com/library/working-papers/quality-minus-junk Our quality measures are constructed as follows (details are in the appendix). We measure profitability by gross profits...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 19
Views: 2319

Re: Keurig-cup coffee makers - why?

I notice that there are only seven coffeemakers certified by the Specialty Coffee Association of America--and unless I've missed something not one of them uses Keurig cups.

Interesting because you'd think the Keurig system would be good at controlling all the factors the SCAA wants controlled.
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig-cup coffee makers - why?
Replies: 67
Views: 4595

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

He isn't really saying the small-firm effect is real. He's essentially pushing the new quality factor: "In its normal form the small firm effect is, on a host of dimensions, weak to possibly nonexistent. Once adjusted for quality exposure it is real and spectacular." Indeed. Now, this tim...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 19
Views: 2319

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

For the life of me, I have never understood how "living below your means" became so ingrained in an investing philosophy. Don't get me wrong, saving is extremely important. But once you save enough, isn't the goal to have fun with all that money you saved? You can't take it with you. Righ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 64
Views: 3051

Re: Where to get medallion signature guarantee

I assume these things involve some legal risk to the bank, and that only honchos at a certain level are authorized to do them... but in these modern times of, you know, fax machines--i've even heard of Skype and videoconferencing--I don't see why the little branch can't call up the VP at the big bra...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to get medallion signature guarantee
Replies: 18
Views: 1248

Re: % of portfolio in TIPS- mark to market?

???? The two brokerages I've held TIPS at, Fidelity and Vanguard, give a stated market value for every TIPS holding. I use that value for the simple reason that it's less trouble than doing anything else. At one time, when I held them directly at Treasury Direct, IIRC the mailed paper statements lis...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: % of portfolio in TIPS- mark to market?
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

The text of the Boglehead's Philosophy came from somewhere. I don't actually remember who hammered it out. (I didn't take part). I like it, I think they did a great job, but it's just a forum consensus opinion... and it wasn't written by John C. Bogle, either. :oops: It's a Wiki article, of course I...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 64
Views: 3051

Re: Where to get medallion signature guarantee

I don't get the "big national banks not giving medallion signature guarantees" thing. What's wrong with them? The whole medallion signature guarantee thing is a royal pain but it is, or should be, a customary bank service and I've never had an issue with the small bank I do business with. ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to get medallion signature guarantee
Replies: 18
Views: 1248

Re: TIPs, what do they really add

If you have TIPS and no nominal Treasures you're essentially betting on inflation being higher than expected. I don't see it this way at all, rnitz. By holding only TIPS I'm avoiding a bet on what the CPI will do. I'm guaranteed a known pretax real return no matter whether it rises more or less tha...
by nisiprius
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs, what do they really add
Replies: 30
Views: 2274

Re: TIPs, what do they really add

...-Vanguard target retirement funds don't hold TIPs and they are presumably managed by smart people... Yes, they do. Target Retirement 2010 holds 13% TIPS. ...When the government offers 10 year bonds/TIPs, for example, they have a projected/assumed inflation rate... If I thought I could predict in...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs, what do they really add
Replies: 30
Views: 2274

Re: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

I "get" it that this is just a long-only portfolio of ETFs and quite a different animal from GTAA. However... I know I will be scorned for paying any attention to the Prospectus . Nevertheless, I think it is notable that the list of "principal risks" goes on for not quite three p...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 846

Re: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

Sat Oct 02, 2010: Meb Faber's New Global Tactical ETF "GTAA" Has anyone looked into this new ETF? Looks interesting and Meb Faber is putting 90+% of his net worth in the fund. A Boglehead commented: I'm going to love this. No more backtesting. It's all about running real money going forwar...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 846

Re: Question: Will Candles Heat up a Cold Room?

Another question is this: having recently replaced our smoke detectors and added a second CO detector on the advice of leaflets distributed by our local fire department... how many candles does it take to set off smoke detectors and CO detectors in an average-sized room? :) I recently attended an in...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question: Will Candles Heat up a Cold Room?
Replies: 21
Views: 1667

Re: Question: Will Candles Heat up a Cold Room?

As noted by Cherokee, a candle flame, being a steady source of 2,600°F heat, can function as the "heat" side of the "fire triangle" (heat, fuel, oxygen). The National Fire Prevention Agency says that from 2007-2011, candles caused 4% of reported home fires, 5% of home fire deaths...
by nisiprius
Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question: Will Candles Heat up a Cold Room?
Replies: 21
Views: 1667

Re: Small Cap Value worth it?

Jainn, YIKES! Please do not change your portfolio on the basis of anything I've posted above. This is just casual exploration. Just because I wrote my own computer program and made some pretty pictures does not mean I have a profound understanding. Don't put unwarranted trust in anyone's pretty pict...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3791

Re: What is your commodities stocks/indexes allocation?

Ibbotson published some research in 2006 suggesting a commodities allocation could improve a portfolio and it quickly became a sort of fad. Oddly enough, right after the research was published, commodities developed a high correlation with stocks and ceased to be a good diversifier. Funny how things...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your commodities stocks/indexes allocation?
Replies: 20
Views: 982

Re: Small Cap Value worth it?

livesoft wrote:Could your chart methodology figure out when was the optimal time to do rebalancing? Perhaps when the returns of small-cap value and total stock market diverged "significantly" and not on a calendar date?
No.
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3791

Re: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k

A very informative filing here: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565596/000101905613000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml You'll have to explain the joke to me. I looked at it and couldn't find anything informative OR funny... ...unless you mean Aggregate Net Asset Value Range: [x] Decline to D...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k.
Replies: 59
Views: 6576

Re: Small Cap Value worth it?

And there is always the tyranny of endpoints. All of the MPT parameters are every bit as capricious and fickle as return itself. Here is a 15-year period over which 100% total market was the optimum, and any admixture of small-cap value into VTSMX simply made things worse by adding risk without addi...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3791

Re: Poll

In principle, I believe the choice should be made by the living. Funerals and memorials are for the benefit of the living, not the dead. I much prefer the idea of cremation, but I wouldn't want to judge anyone else's choice. It's whatever comforts the living. I find many things about the expense, re...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll [Cemetery or Cremation]
Replies: 20
Views: 683

Re: Small Cap Value worth it?

First, before I show the charts, some explanations... I think I'm using MPT methodology correctly. I don't want to go down the rathole of whether this methodology is useful or silly, but it is part of the rationale behind "diversification benefit" arguments. The data for the first chart co...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3791

Re: Sector risk with cap weighted index

(Shrug) For whatever it's worth, the rationale for cap-weighting is not merely pragmatism or past performance, it is that cap-weighting mirrors "the market portfolio," the total contents of the actual stock market, and under some set of assumptions it is some kind of optimum. Stocks from d...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sector risk with cap weighted index
Replies: 3
Views: 282

Re: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi opti

I believe in what I will call the "ultra-weak" form. I believe that a) I, personally, cannot earn excess return in the long run by using investment strategies based anything I can learn about individual securities--prices history or fundamentals. b) I, personally, cannot identify funds or ...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi options)
Replies: 11
Views: 682

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

How many Bogleheads will be purchasing Apple's iWatch? I'm not even going to bother finding out what the heck it is or what it does, but am prepared to be convinced by "word of mouth..." when and if I see friends wearing them... and the friends whose tastes and lives are similar to mind s...
by nisiprius
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 842
Views: 171211

Re: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k

I always found it interesting that hedge funds were not more regulated based on the theory that their investors were sophisticated and more knowledgeable. I'm out of the loop as far as hedge funds. How does one even find one to invest in? Do they have internet sites? Do they beat the bushes looking...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund loses 99.8% of all funds, $100m down to $200k.
Replies: 59
Views: 6576

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

...But why isn't Buffett a genius?... Why isn't Ken Heebner a genius? http://s5.postimg.org/h2nmb7pkn/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_01_21_a_las_4_26_44_PM.png Answer: Because it's not 2006. (Blue: CGM Focus, Ken Heebner's fund; Orange, genius-free Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund). Source: Morning...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 246
Views: 11409

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

I thought we had already established many posts ago that you're not buying a luxury watch for the functionality any more than you lament the lack of calories in a fine dining meal or the alchohol content in a vintage first growth wine or the resolution in a painting. I was exploring the meaning of ...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 842
Views: 171211

Re: Low Bond Yields and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates

And this just shows how bogus and irresponsible these studies are, because the studies that led to the 4% rule were not billed as being based on recent data, they were billed as being based on all historical data... ... including the Great Depression, the 17-year "Death of Equities" era wh...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Bond Yields and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 6
Views: 735

Re: What will happen to international stocks if a Euro break

...One of the significant risks to foreign investment is currency risk -- isn't this currency risk on steroids?... I don't think so, I think it's just plain old garden-variety currency risk. So, the Swiss franc jumped in value 15% overnight, and the Swiss franc is 3.6% of the basket of foreign curr...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will happen to international stocks if a Euro breakup?
Replies: 23
Views: 1556

Today's "Low-vol" and yesterday's "high beta"

Because I wasn't paying attention at the time I didn't realize it until I started skimming the new edition of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," but Malkiel writes that Just as stocks had their fads, so beta came into fashion in the early 1970s. _Institutional Investor_ ... put its imprimat...
by nisiprius
Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's "Low-vol" and yesterday's "high beta"
Replies: 5
Views: 611

Re: Pick Your Poison

American Funds' Investment Company of America, AIVSX, has a very pretty growth chart (orange). Blue, Vanguard 500 Index, VFINX. Source: Morningstar http://s5.postimg.org/51wntzuwn/Captura_de_pantalla_2015_01_20_a_las_10_19_40_PM.png But, like a number of other once-legendary funds, over the last ten...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pick Your Poison [Vanguard vs. American Funds]
Replies: 24
Views: 3346

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

I admit that I'm sort of intrigued by this watch. It has one hand which goes around once every 24 hours. You might miss the occasional plane, train, or job interview but on the other hand you won't be fussing over how to stop it with the second hand on the twelve so you can get the minute hand exact...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 842
Views: 171211

Re: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure

When I was in a situation like that I purchased a report from an organization called "Castle Connally," you can Google for it, I don't quite feel comfortable posting a link. It cost about $20 and my recollection is that it named about a dozen doctors, all at big major teaching hospitals, o...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: urgent: how to identify top surgeons for a procedure
Replies: 49
Views: 3947

Re: Bonds Vs Cash

...In this time of low interest rates and the fact they can only move up then I feel Bonds represent a risk... Watch out for casual knowledgeable-sounding pronouncements like "interest rates can only move up." The Fed sets overnight rates. The "bonds" usually discussed here are ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds Vs Cash
Replies: 7
Views: 1054

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

...Like others have noted, this can be configured in Settings / Advanced Sync.... This is blaming the victim. More and more and more, everything new in computing is coming defaulted to no privacy, share everything, and it is excused by saying "but you can turn it off." Yes, if you know it...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 103
Views: 5863

Re: HELP!!! with run amok investment board!

IMO PIMCO Total Bond fund has been liquidating to accomodate redemptions. It is keeping an inordinate amount of cash in order to smooth out the redemption process. The combination is a sure recipe to lag the Index. By the way, "inordinate..." how much is that in dollars? If it's such a da...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HELP!!! with run amok investment board!
Replies: 25
Views: 3647

Re: $50,000 to invest, want little to no risk. CDs? Silver?

Not silver. $50,000 invested in silver 2-4 years ago would have lost about $15,000 since then. (It could have lost over $30,000 if you were unlucky enough to invest at the worst possible time). I don't think that's what you are looking for. To say it could have lost over half your money is not to sa...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50,000 to invest, want little to no risk. CDs? Silver? Etc?
Replies: 32
Views: 2635

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Love Over Scotland , by Alexander McCall Smith, but I'm not loving it as much as Espresso Tales and maybe I'll take a break from the series when I finish it. Cued up (can't resist Amazon's bargain prices): Memories of Another Day by Harold Robbins and Bagmen by William Lashner. (Yes, Harold Robbins...
by nisiprius
Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 436
Views: 56329
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