Search found 27666 matches

by nisiprius
Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fair compensation for change of delivery date without been notified
Replies: 19
Views: 1514

Re: Fair compensation for change of delivery date without been notified

When we moved into our house in the late 1970s we bought four appliances from the previous owners, paying $75 each for them. It seemed like and was a fairly good deal. However, six months later, the $75 refrigerator suddenly failed completely--not good in a home with two little kids. It failed on a ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 62
Views: 3464

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

^ WHY, oh why, did you ask her to look at the statement??? :shock: Because if [insert euphemistic contingency here], I really want her to manage the portfolio herself and not go to any advisor. I'm convinced that financial planning is truly needed for someone with five times our income and a more c...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 62
Views: 3464

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

No, I haven't given up. Why would I? Nothing that has happened has led me to consider changing. They continue to represent 40% of my fixed income. They continue to be the second-closest thing to a riskless investment I know (the closest being series I savings bonds). In return for low risk, you get ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you pay to not have ads?
Replies: 24
Views: 1476

Re: Will you pay to not have ads?

Every time I've "paid not to have ads" there ended up being ads, anyway. "They" never kept their side of the proposed social contract. When we first bought cable TV, we were told that Nickelodeon, the kids' channel didn't have ads. That lasted about a year. Geezers like me contin...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very Low Volume - Should I Avoid These ETFs?
Replies: 12
Views: 883

Re: Very Low Volume - Should I Avoid These ETFs?

Two possibilities that, for some reason :happy come to mind: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF, VGK, $14 billion-with-a-B. Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF, VPL $3 billion-with-a-B. You don't say why you want ETFs, so I'll also mention that these are available as mutual funds, VEUSX and VPADX, and you could buy the...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 29, 2015 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sychrony Bank - warning
Replies: 29
Views: 3477

Re: Sychrony Bank - warning

I see that 2009 some carping malcontent was ranting irritably in this forum about Vanguard's website not working with Safari... and objecting to suggestions that he just use Firefox and live happily ever after!
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 29, 2015 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDE lacking clean energy
Replies: 26
Views: 1148

Re: VDE lacking clean energy

The "charter of the ETF," according to Vanguard, is to track the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Energy 25/50 Index, an index of stocks of large, medium, and small U.S. companies in the energy sector, as classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). Van...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 29, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sychrony Bank - warning
Replies: 29
Views: 3477

Re: Sychrony Bank - warning

Don't want to get into a shouting match but I just shrug and accept that Safari doesn't work on every website and I honestly don't care whose fault it is. I have Firefox for the Mac and I keep it handy. I do prefer Safari, but whenever I am having any website problems I immediately try Firefox. I do...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 29, 2015 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDE lacking clean energy
Replies: 26
Views: 1148

Re: VDE lacking clean energy

...The US nuclear utilities are largely independent: Exelon and Constellation are the big operators, from memory. People like Southern Company and TVA (government owned) also run reactors... Exelon and Southern Company are in the Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU). I'm not finding Constellation in any of...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDE lacking clean energy
Replies: 26
Views: 1148

Re: VDE lacking clean energy

The question to my mind is: if one is going to invest in a sector, what should be the definition of that sector? For better or worse--I'm sorta Googling as I'm writing because I don't do sector investing and haven't paid much attention--there's some kind of "standard" definition, the Globa...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDE lacking clean energy
Replies: 26
Views: 1148

Re: VDE lacking clean energy

Just to be argumentative... presumably one invests in a sector in with the idea that the companies in the sector are in similar businesses and form a coherent group of stocks with similar behavior. They have to classify things somehow. Vanguard's capsule description of VDE says that it "Include...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pure Factor Investing(Annualized vs. Average Returns)
Replies: 11
Views: 863

Re: Pure Factor Investing(Annualized vs. Average Returns)

To establish a sensible criterion for hypothesis testing in the age of dirt-cheap computing power, we need to adjust the t-stat for the aggregate number of backtests that might be performed in any given year by researchers collectively. Indeed. Recognizing that there are a lot more professors and q...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pure Factor Investing(Annualized vs. Average Returns)
Replies: 11
Views: 863

Re: Pure Factor Investing(Annualized vs. Average Returns)

Yes, I had the same question as lack_ey. It's a side issue, robert88, and sure, everyone seems to do it... ...but why are financial economists so fond of "t-stats" when they seem grotesquely inappropriate? Is there any good reason for preferring them to non-parametric tests except the cyni...
by nisiprius
Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: can you recommend comfortable walking shoes?
Replies: 43
Views: 3113

Re: can you recommend comfortable walking shoes?

I've been happy with New Balance MW928BR men's walking shoes. The "rollbar" stiffeners feel good to me and eliminated the need to use orthotics, and I like the fact that, at least from a distance, they just look like plain ordinary brown leather shoes. They've gotten fantastically expensiv...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 26, 2015 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Fight Financial Clutter"
Replies: 8
Views: 1370

Re: "Fight Financial Clutter"

This is a non issue with app's like Personal Capital in the picture. But hey, to each his own. Does your significant other know how to find, launch, and operate Personal Capital on your computer? On their computer? Does your significant other know all the passwords needed to do this and to maintain...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Returns
Replies: 28
Views: 2981

Re: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Returns

The elephant in the room is: do events like the following cause fundamental, structural changes in statistical characteristics of the stock market? a) The formation of the SEC b) The Investment Company Act of 1940 c) The end of brokerage fixed commissions and the rise of discount brokerages d) The i...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 5943

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

5. Self-selection by Bogleheads who choose to respond to polls. In other words, "Bogleheads forum readers who choose to respond to polls about asset allocation are more aggressive..." In case you haven't noticed, the Advisory Board agreed to disable the facility for creating polls in this ...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Funds - Money Market vs Savings Acct?
Replies: 7
Views: 669

Re: Emergency Funds - Money Market vs Savings Acct?

The "experts" must simply have not updated their advice. From the time they were invented, in 1971, until about 2008, money market [mutual] funds earned meaningfully more than savings accounts (and more than the deceptively named bank products called "money market" deposit accoun...
by nisiprius
Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone noticed the Japanese stock market lately?
Replies: 15
Views: 2149

Re: Has anyone noticed the Japanese stock market lately?

I try to avoid noticing any stock markets. From some comments in the thread about Japan being the bad apple spoiling the index I gathered that it was doing OK recently. OK, made me look. Blue, VGTSX, Vanguard Total International Orange, FJPNX, Fidelity Japan (actively managed). Green, ITF, a Japan l...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6962

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

As you can see from this heat map, there are many periods in which US stocks have returned zip for over two decades. So, it wouldn't be extraordinary for that to happen over the next 2-3 decades. Plan accordingly. I'm not buying it. The chart includes an incredibly vague disclaimer "Includes d...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me w/ logic of bonds over high yield savings
Replies: 5
Views: 902

Re: Please help me w/ logic of bonds over high yield savings

when bonds are yielding something like 2% and everyone thinks they are overvalued/in bubble territory Well, not "everybody" does think that... why not put that allocation it in high yield savings...? Because I'm not sure I know where you can get 2% on "high-yield savings." Nerdw...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 4614

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

I can honestly answer "no." But my stock allocation was pretty low in 2008. I had actually been considering increasing it a trifle. 2008-2009 convinced me not to, so... it stopped me from changing my strategy! You have to figure things out as best you can, but I personally am convinced tha...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6962

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

If you believe the QSPIX will will be nearly uncorrelated with stocks and bonds going forward it is useful as a hedge... You need more than low correlation to make something "useful." There are many things that have low correlation. For example, actual currency--money under the mattress--...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6962

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

The "salesman's syllogism." --Stocks and bonds will suck. --My mutual fund does not invest in stocks or bonds. --Ergo, my mutual fund will not suck. The "client's syllogism." --The expected returns from stocks and bonds are not as high as I want. --I am entitled to get what I wan...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [CNBC article: Social Security Denying Delayed Benefits]
Replies: 23
Views: 3183

Re: [CNBC article: Social Security Denying Delayed Benefits]

Obviously SSA has an antiquated IT structure. It's probably so antiquated I should be calling it "DP" rather than "IT!" It relies on batch processing and doesn't have the real-time responsiveness we now expect from modern systems. (Perhaps it may not have the security vulnerabili...
by nisiprius
Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any brokerage that offers commission free Vanguard mutual funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 2523

Re: Any brokerage that offers commission free Vanguard mutual funds?

My honest beliefs--based on experience with Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, TIAA-CREF, and occasionally glancing at the fee schedules for others: a) I did not personally notice any identifiable consistent difference in customer service between these financial institutions. I thought all of them were ver...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Random Beat Down of Wall Street
Replies: 1
Views: 750

Re: A Random Beat Down of Wall Street

This is just a casino-based implementation of equal-weighting, which is better achieved by buying RSP, which is (drum-roll) an index fund... ...an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index. So does the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index beat the S&P? Probably. Is that because cap-weight...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [CNBC article: Social Security Denying Delayed Benefits]
Replies: 23
Views: 3183

Re: [CNBC article: Social Security Denying Delayed Benefits]

Mike, thank you for being the voice of reason here. Kotlikoff leads with an entire paragraph of "shock," "horror," "galling example," and "worst we've ever seen." If it's the worst he's ever seen he's led a charmed life. To his overwrought alarmism on Social S...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor Gap vs. Zero Sum Game
Replies: 15
Views: 1419

Re: Investor Gap vs. Zero Sum Game

artgerst, I've been brooding over that for a long time and I am puzzled by it, too. Here's how I frame the conundrum: a) The evidence that there is a gap is convincing to me. At this point, I simply believe it. The details that it is greater for asset classes that are trendier, more volatile, are pa...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a Look at Neuberger Berman funds, comparing to passive funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1051

Re: a Look at Neuberger Berman funds, comparing to passive funds

Larry Swedroe concluded that he found ...no evidence that Neuberger Berman’s fund managers were able to persistently exploit market inefficiencies... One detail: In the six asset classes for which comparable Vanguard funds were available, an equal-weighted portfolio of Neuberger Berman funds returne...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6630

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

...I wonder if the results are at all period dependent from that time period, and if the results are the same from other start/stop points... :wink: I'd bet money that the answers are "yes" and "no." And don't forget, 1926 has become enshrined as if it were a natural starting po...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6630

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

P.S. 1) CRSP "deciles" are bizarre and don't mean anything any naïve person would think of as a "decile." They are mysterious and seemingly arbitrary, although I am sure CRSP can state good reasons for not doing the obvious thing. Either of the two obvious things. See this thread...
by nisiprius
Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6630

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

And yet... just saying. I think it's clear that I'm very skeptical about the small-cap premise. Even if small-caps do have higher return, that's completely uninteresting to me unless you can show me something about "risk." With regard to return itself, I think the most interesting thing is...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6630

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Did small-caps outperform the total market since 1926? Yes... I have read this "fact" a thousand times ... and yet .. according to Jack Bogle ... the S&P 500 outperformed the Total Stock Market since 1926 by 0.3 percentage points.... How does one square these two "facts".......
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 19295

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

The truth of the matter is not only did we not know WHEN the decline would end, we did not really know whether it would end at all. True with any decline, I suppose. That is one of the reasons why the 2000-03 one was so grueling -- it was stretched out over a longer period than 08-09. Perhaps, but ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 19295

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Although it was scary when the big household-name firms collapsed, I found Lehman Brothers particularly alarming for a number of reasons. First, they were such an old firm. Second, I kept wondering "what will Total Bond do without a Lehman Brothers Aggregate Index?" :) Third, I know those ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]
Replies: 36
Views: 2244

Re: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]

Happy birthday, Mel!
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm new to investing and have a few basic questions (Roth or not to Roth, mutual funds or index, etc.)
Replies: 5
Views: 624

Re: I'm new to investing and have a few basic questions (Roth or not to Roth, mutual funds or index, etc.)

A small detail, forgive me. An "index fund" is a kind of mutual fund. "Mutual funds" are governed by the Investment Company Act of 1940, whose importance I think people may not appreciate sufficiently. The distinction is simply in the management and objective of the fund. A typic...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date 2015- Low-credit-quality bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1891

Re: Target Date 2025- Low-credit-quality bonds?

Interesting... weird... I can't replicate it... I tried a "hypothetical" allocation of 100% VTTVX in Portfolio Tester and it's only showing me 1.2% "low credit quality." I was wondering if it is something to do with the international bond fund but of course that would be similar...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel, "retirement period increased more than eightfold"
Replies: 12
Views: 2650

Re: Siegel, "retirement period increased more than eightfold"

And what happened to the labor participation rate for women during the same period? Seems overall, we are working many more years on average considering that huge influx. In 1950, my wife would have remained a stay at home Mom forever. Now, she did that AND went and started a career afterwards. May...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6630

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Did they if you remove the single period 1975-1983? No.... A lot of your criticisms of the small vs. large chart could be said exactly of a stocks vs. bonds chart so I won't even go into detail trying to refute them all. OK, refute one: Tell me the single 9-year period which, if removed from the re...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 19295

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

I think this quotation belongs in this thread: In 1940, in Where are the Customer's Yachts , in the chapter on "Customers, That Hardy Breed," Fred Schwed wrote: Like all of life's rich emotional experiences, the full flavor of losing important money cannot be conveyed by literature. Art ca...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 19295

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

The sensation was, as Stephen King's characters often say in his horror stories, "the hits just keep on coming." I first noticed it in early 2008 when I was on vacation, visiting friends, and she said she was worried about the stock market, and--who hadn't been checking--laughed and said &...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An out-of-sample look at the four best-performing funds 1972-2012
Replies: 24
Views: 4246

Re: An out-of-sample look at the four best-performing funds 1972-2012

ACRNX/LACAX has been losing investors in droves since the manager turnover. It has almost certainly lost it's 'most favored' status, at least for the time being. So, if you remove Columbia Acorn and just do the top three funds it swings back to about 1.8% in the favor the active funds over the last...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront suggests Dollar Cost Averaging and its opposite?
Replies: 12
Views: 1932

Re: Wealthfront suggests Dollar Cost Averaging and its opposite?

I don't know, but it's another topic (like the nature of "rebalancing") where you read a lot of stuff that doesn't seem to make sense. There's a meme to the effect that dollar-cost averaging purchases is beneficial because you "automatically buy low," and one to the effect that &...
by nisiprius
Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target Date 2015- Low-credit-quality bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1891

Re: Target Date 2025- Low-credit-quality bonds?

Interesting... weird... I can't replicate it... I tried a "hypothetical" allocation of 100% VTTVX in Portfolio Tester and it's only showing me 1.2% "low credit quality." I was wondering if it is something to do with the international bond fund but of course that would be similar ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Use Roth IRA to remodel house?
Replies: 18
Views: 2010

Re: Use Roth IRA to remodel house?

Well, what was your plan? If you are calling something "retirement savings" you should save it until retirement.

If your plan from the start was to use your Roth IRA as a working fund for home improvement, then OK.

Did you write anything down?
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6630

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

There might be something in it, or then again there might not. A lot of smart people think there's something in it. I switched from 500 Index to Total Stock about fifteen years ago, so I hold the market weight of small caps, but I don't tilt. Be sure to read John C. Bogle's essay, The Telltale Chart...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Nephews: Water Guns and Nerf Weapons
Replies: 29
Views: 3577

Re: Visiting Nephews: Water Guns and Nerf Weapons

There is nothing that beats a length of about three or four feet of rubber hose, of the kind used in laboratories, with about a 1/4" internal diameter. Knot one end. Inflate with water (it will inflate to a diameter of an inch or so). Pinch the other end closed. It will eject the water very rap...
by nisiprius
Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An out-of-sample look at the four best-performing funds 1972-2012
Replies: 24
Views: 4246

Re: An out-of-sample look at the four best-performing funds 1972-2012

So, if we compare each against the Vanguard index fund in the same style box, over the total period 6/18/2012 - 6/19/2015 starting from an investment of $10,000: SEQUX:18,000.97 MUTHX:16,014.77 FMAGX:17,703.97 LACAX:15,565.41 VIGAX:16,969.99 VVIAX:16,831.72 VIGAX:16,969.99 VMGMX:17,434.91 (Not sure ...

Go to advanced search