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Re: HUFF POST: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Pub

if the mutual funds investors are losing 4 points, who is getting that 4 points? This is a question that has long puzzled me and I am still trying to figure out an answer. This is a set of working hypotheses. I don't know how to test any of them. a) The public DOES systematically underperform the m...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HUFF POST: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Public?
Replies: 16
Views: 638

Re: Which is King: Income Stream or $ Invested

After we get this settled, we can debate:
Which is king, pennies or dollars?

Dollars, because you mustn't be "penny wise and pound foolish."

No, no, pennies, because "take care of the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves."
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is King: Income Stream or $ Invested
Replies: 38
Views: 3032

Re: Question About I-Bonds

When you buy them via Treasury Direct, every act of purchase shows up as a separate line item in the account with a separate "confirmation number." You can have several different confirmation numbers for the same I-bond "issue." I'm not sure about the exact deadlines and boundary...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question About I-Bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 438

Re: The Boglehead-prisoner’s dilemma.

We will need to have the original poster clarify, but this is a Boglehead -prisoner and he wants to put something in the box that will behave as much as possible like a "normal" Boglehead portfolio. He said His desired asset allocation would be a conservative four-fund portfolio of 20% Bon...
by nisiprius
Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Boglehead-prisoner’s dilemma.
Replies: 16
Views: 1600

Re: Social Security - Receive Any Letters Approaching Age 70

Oblivious, in a nutshell. In your opinions:

a) How important it is to claim Social Security fairly soon after turning 70?

b) As a practical matter, how much leeway do you have?

c) What do you suggest that people use as a reminder?
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - Receive Any Letters Approaching Age 70?
Replies: 19
Views: 1535

Re: Which bond ETFs do you have?

None. In the first place, I don't like ETFs, and in the second place, there has been just enough said about potential problems specific to bond ETFs to make me think that even if you preferred to hold stocks as ETFs, you might still prefer to hold bonds in the form of a mutual fund.
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which bond ETFs do you have?
Replies: 12
Views: 891

Re: Expected Future Yield Curve

Inflation went from 6.8% in 1977 to 13.3% in 1979, and I think interest rates did much the same thing, so I think it is an exercise in futility to be making predictions of nominal rates to ±0.25% precision.

Image
by nisiprius
Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Future Yield Curve
Replies: 14
Views: 660

Re: Surge protectors

...In my opinion at 2.5 hp motor does not belong on a residential kitchen counter. I am not surprised it is causing you issues. My pool pump is 1.5 hp and is running on a 20 amp 240 volt circuit. The company telling you to turn it off after 15 seconds is a ludicrous response. I would return it and ...
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surge protectors
Replies: 39
Views: 2600

Re: Surge protectors

Investornewb, I and I am sure others are now very curious and I hope you will post and tell us more when you learn more.
by nisiprius
Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surge protectors
Replies: 39
Views: 2600

Re: Surge protectors

I looked at the specs for the Ninja Ultima. 2.5 horsepower 1500 watts. It draws almost as much as my electric law mower. I'd be scared to have something like that running on my kitchen counter. I wonder about the engineering design that puts so much power into a small package that cannot possibly d...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surge protectors
Replies: 39
Views: 2600

Re: CD interest payments

MickeyD, what you should have gleaned by now, but it's important so I'll say it... the terms and conditions of a CD are what a bank choose to make them. Well, obviously there are state and federal regulations that put limits on what they can do. And every state is different. And financial institutio...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD interest payments
Replies: 19
Views: 1389

Re: Why should stocks go up over the long term?

FIrst, be careful. That chart is misleading because it a "nominal" return chart; that is, it is not corrected for inflation. The inflation-corrected chart is impressive, too, but it has some awkward places like a level section for 17 years from 1966 and 1982. I cannot think of any good rea...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks go up over the long term?
Replies: 34
Views: 2681

Re: How well integrated is a VBS account on the Vanguard pag

At the moment, no, it is not well integrated; yes, it is messy, and yes, it ruins the simplicity. The brokerage account has its own account number and gets grouped separately. So, on the main page I have one line each for my rollover IRA mutual funds, my rollover IRA brokerage account, my Roth mutua...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How well integrated is a VBS account on the Vanguard page?
Replies: 11
Views: 479

Re: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?

I used to. Not very many and not very seriously. I've owned about a dozen or so individual stocks in my life. That includes the $400 total I spent buying $5 semimonthly, via payroll deduction, in the employee stock purchase plan. (I feared the boss would look at me funny if I didn't participate at a...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?
Replies: 92
Views: 4847

Re: Possibility of getting sued - what steps to take

...Before leaving he asked my husband whether he has insurance - which makes us think he may sue.... I wouldn't jump to that conclusion. I think it is a very natural question, and there's good reason for him to ask it even if he doesn't plan to sue. Due to "coordination of benefits," when...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Possibility of getting sued - what steps to take
Replies: 24
Views: 3320

Re: Bank account to teach kids

At age 5? Keep it simple--a piggy bank. Or... every Christmas the local CVS store has these... for about ten bucks you can get a kind of big plastic jar with a lid containing a digital gadget that detects and total the coins that pass through it. So you can see the coins in the jar AND read the numb...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank account to teach kids
Replies: 8
Views: 337

Re: my quarterly hedge fund update

...The price of chicken wings is often higher than thighs and sometimes more than breasts !... Because of the demand for chicken wings to make Buffalo wings. Also, I'm not too clear on this but it looks for all the world to me like they have started to breed chickens for meatier wings. Actually I'd...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my quarterly hedge fund update
Replies: 11
Views: 1440

Re: Do Bogleheads Feel Wealthier?

An interesting question, but I don't know how to answer it. I don't even know how to answer the question "do I feel wealthier then my non-Boglehead friend Sandy?" It would take a heck of a lot of money, and skill in devising a psychological testing instrument, and statistic savvy figuring ...
by nisiprius
Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do Bogleheads Feel Wealthier?
Replies: 57
Views: 4418

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

...Yes as a consumer I'd love to be insured against this, but at what price?... First, the insurance company doesn't have to take any inflation risk themselves, they can buy TIPS and let the Treasury take it. If they think they can do better themselves, well, they're big boys, and risk is their bus...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: Surge protectors

A surge protector WILL NOT help. I have a blender and lately it has been damaging my wall sockets. i.e. after blending frozen fruit for a minute or so, the blender will suddenly become inoperable and shut off. Then when I unplug it and plug it back in, it won't turn on because the wall socket is dam...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surge protectors
Replies: 39
Views: 2600

Re: "Why no one should use brokerage accounts" Really?

I suppose the example is fictitious. Can you provide a link to an article where this actually happened as outlined by Kotlikoff? Is he writing about the clawbacks from the Madoff victims? Or something else? +1 Quite possibly there's a real problem, quite possibly that bill ought to be passed, but a...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why no one should use brokerage accounts" Really?
Replies: 10
Views: 1395

Re: Social Security - Receive Any Letters Approaching Age 70

By the way... talk about missing the forest for the trees... I've just done a little casual Googling on what happens if you forget to file until well after age 70. I couldn't find anything. There are a gazillion articles fussing over claiming strategies and what a big mistake it is to use a suboptim...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - Receive Any Letters Approaching Age 70?
Replies: 19
Views: 1535

Re: Social Security - Receive Any Letters Approaching Age 70

A friend asked me a few questions that I could not answer. 1-800-772-1213. I can't say this too often: my personal experience is that Social Security has answered their phone in a reasonable length of time and has been reasonably intelligent and helpful. 1-800-772-1213. If he has questions about So...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - Receive Any Letters Approaching Age 70?
Replies: 19
Views: 1535

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

...I was *really* startled running the Fidelity retirement planner (the one that so far seems to best allow us to account for the "things" WE are likely to need) how very different the expected value was by including the software's choice of annuitizing (or choosing a few percentages of o...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: favorite bogleheads posts?

LadyGeek wrote:At the time, we did send an email to the address on record requesting information. There was no reply. For an anonymous internet forum, that's the most we should do.
I agree, I understand, and didn't mean to be critical. I'm just sad about it.
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: favorite bogleheads posts?
Replies: 50
Views: 4030

Re: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam

Is the following correct, based upon my reading of this thread: * When I sign up for a Treasury Direct account, I can sign up with TWO linked bank accounts. * Switching between these accounts as my Primary account within Treasury Direct can be done online and without filing forms Is the above corre...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam
Replies: 58
Views: 4092

Re: What shoe size should I buy?

There is, alas, NO substitute for trying them on. None. Trying them on for a couple of weeks . All the online and brick-and-mortar shoestores I've dealt with understand this and have a reasonable return policy. That is to say, they know the shoes probably won't be in salable condition but they will ...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What shoe size should I buy?
Replies: 10
Views: 706

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

We don't know what future inflation is going to be, but 2% is more likely than 0%. If insurance companies are reluctant to offer inflation-indexed annuities, annuities with payments that annually increase at a 2 or 3% rate could be a good alternative. Is there a name for an immediate annuity with p...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: favorite bogleheads posts?

I have to say by far the most useful and informative posts for me on this board were from bob90245 and his website which has been down for about 2 years: bob's financial website. He hasn't posted since then either. His website information was extremely helpful in guiding my wife and I into retireme...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: favorite bogleheads posts?
Replies: 50
Views: 4030

Re: Another Schwab Question

My sister is not a US citizen and is not a US resident. She is now able to legally move a fairly large amount of money annually to the USA and hold it in USD. I am recommending that she get a Schwab account I spoke with Schwab and am convinced they know what they are doing. Then, I will suggest she...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Schwab Question
Replies: 11
Views: 1002

Re: Vanguard sued for charging too little

Isn't Vanguard a non profit? I've not seen Vanguard claim nonprofit status as the law defines it: In other words, Vanguard is structured as a "mutual" mutual fund company. https://about.vanguard.com/what-sets-vanguard-apart/why-ownership-matters/ Vanguard is chartered as a regular old bus...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard sued for charging too little
Replies: 108
Views: 10806

Re: Vanguard sued for charging too little

I'm not a lawyer, but it unfortunately sounds to me as if there's at least SOMETHING to this lawsuit. These transactions certainly aren't arms-length transactions. On the other hand, the law is stupid and poorly written in the first place if it doesn't allow something like this. Mutual companies ar...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard sued for charging too little
Replies: 108
Views: 10806

Re: Sshwab vs. Vanguard for index funds

See http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Schwab Focus on what's best for you. There are about 100 things more important than the brand name of the low-cost index fund you buy. If you have no other reasons for leaving Schwab, I would not leave them just to substitute Vanguard index funds for close-equivale...
by nisiprius
Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sshwab vs. Vanguard for index funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1616

Re: Vanguard sued for charging too little

Interesting. I am not a lawyer and can only watch the drama unfold. Vanguard's structure, with "Vanguard providing services to its mutual funds at artificially low, 'at-cost' prices," is hardly a secret. Vanguard's been driving "at-cost cafe" coffee trucks around trumpeting it. A...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard sued for charging too little
Replies: 108
Views: 10806

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

Since I wasn't fussing over "actuarially fair," no, I didn't look at that, so let's do the simplest possible back-of-the-envelope calculation. In Vanguard's illustration, a man pays $26,894 dollars. He receives $1000/month starting at age 85. His SSA life expectancy is 5.80 years at age 8...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: rewards checking account

I used one for three years. The deal gradually got to be less and less good and eventually I gave it up. I did some careful planning to make sure I could jump through the hoops. It worked. My experience was that it wasn't a trick--it wasn't like a carnival game that looks easy but is actually almost...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: rewards checking account
Replies: 12
Views: 708

Re: AMZN's magical status

It totally mortifies me to say this. And I find it deeply troubling. But it is the truth. I smashed my previous Kindle through a dumb accident, and felt guilty about spending the money to replace it, so to punish myself I bought a Kindle "With Special Offers." (Ads). I figured that after a...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2756

Re: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam

It's been more than 24 hours. How is your pressure? We are worried about you. I love pressure. I eat pressure for breakfast. The reason I left my last job was that they didn't give me enough pressure--oh, wait, this isn't a job interview. I just received a courteous email reply from Treasury Direct...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam
Replies: 58
Views: 4092

Re: Make Income the Outcome

...If you care about leaving a legacy then a major threat to your legacy is you living for a long time or otherwise outliving your income stream. Ensuring you have a adequate lifetime income not only protects the "floor" of your income but it also protects the "floor" of your le...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3820

Re: Make Income the Outcome

...Vanguard is not an insurance company so I would not expect them to have annuities at the top of their menu. They are just a damn good mutual fund company... And, as I said... and as you'd expect... and, arguably, as they ought to... they have the self-serving bias of the investment industry. Nev...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3820

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

[Are you disappointed because the payment amounts aren't close enough to actuarially fair (you didn't actually provide any data to evaluate that proposition), or simply because you wished that they offered payments that were fully inflation adjusting from annuitization date onwards? My complaint is...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

...Does the addition of a product like this convey anything about Vanguard's corporate philosophy or direction they might be moving? Or are they simply "responding to a need the marketplace demands"?... My personal GUESS--reading Vanguard's "mind"--is that they probably feel con...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam

..LOL, you've got me wanting to check the website I work on most... It is also insane that more and more computer systems are putting more and more restrictions on the possibilities for entering a name, a plain old name. You'd think that in the era of "I14N" it would getting better, but i...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam
Replies: 58
Views: 4092

Re: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam

...TIPS are probably close enough... I disagree strongly in a very limited sense. The investment characteristics of series I savings bonds and TIPS are so wildly different that I don't think they should be discussed in the same breath. I own both I bonds and TIPS and I like them both, but they are ...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct--just blowing off steam
Replies: 58
Views: 4092

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

...I sure hope folks who jump at these puppies understand the risk they are taking on... Methinks the operative verb will be "push," not "jump." If I were king of the world I'd decree that any ad or brochure for any guaranteed-income product must include the words "(WARNING...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

I'm sympathetic to the concept of insurance. (I have NO connection with the industry other than as customer). Unlike many people, I have never been the least bothered by the idea that an immediate annuity might pay out a smaller number of dollars than the number paid in. But the numbers for these th...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

It probably turns out that it doesn't make any sense, and I'm too lazy to try to work it out, but I wonder how that compares with buying an immediate inflation-adjusted annuity, and, for twenty years, banking or conservatively investing all the monthly payments and "reinvesting" in fresh i...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

Guaranteed income with a fixed annuity through Vanguard Annuity Access http://s27.postimg.org/7qpwgttub/Screen_Shot_2014_07_26_at_8_10_46_AM.png I wanted to find out about inflation adjustments, so I logged on through Income Solutions to poke around. (You need to have a Vanguard account and then, f...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 76
Views: 5227

Re: Make Income the Outcome

This is just a large-scale example of the problems people have comparing lump sums with steady payments. "A million dollars" just sounds better than "$70,000 a year for life," and much better than "$50,000 a year for life and we give a cost-of-living index each year." $...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3820

Re: Afraid of Bonds

I...I'm fine with riding out a bond fund if interest rates rise, but my fear comes from the thought of a sizable stock market correction at the same time that interest rates are rising. I'd hate to rebalance out of some of my bonds a year or two from now to make up for a stock market correction. At...
by nisiprius
Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Afraid of Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2247
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