Search found 3747 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 33
Views: 4454

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

Hi nedsaid, Are you now allocating 30% of fixed income to Total International Bond as Vanguard recommends? Do you like foreign bonds? Positives and negatives? No, my foreign bonds are maybe 2.5% of my portfolio and maybe 8% or so of my fixed income. I own two such funds, one of which invests heavil...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding debt markets
Replies: 5
Views: 603

Re: Understanding debt markets

Rxforinvesting, your posts are very interesting and I have enjoyed reading them. I am beginning to wonder if I have been fighting the last war, that is inflation. Perhaps I should be more concerned about deflation. In that light, historically very low interest rates don't look so low. What is low ca...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2411

Re: NJ state pension

nedsaid, Thanks for all your insight and tempered remarks. Contrary to what most people believe, the investor still assumes risk even as a participant in a pension plan. Promised benefits can be cut. While that's a very general statement, it does not speak to the legal — or even moral — justificati...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2411

Re: NJ state pension

I don't want to get into the politics of this and get the thread locked. This is a very important discussion though. My advice to those in government pension plans is to check upon the health of such plans. To what degree are future obligations funded? In my state, it is about 80%. People in such pl...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2411

Re: NJ state pension

I had been under the impression that the Detroit pensions had been cut. This apparently is still being litigated.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2411

Re: NJ state pension

Municipal pensions are often state pensions. Stockton, California participates in CALPERS. Stockton owes CALPERS a lot of money and CALPERS has a shortfall of its own. This is a Stockton problem and this is a California problem. A reason this is being so heavily litigated is that if Stockton is allo...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2411

Re: NJ state pension

Governments have tried to cut pension benefits and were prevented from doing that by the courts in some cases. "In some cases?" Have there been any cases in the US in which a state has successfully cut state pension payments (not COLAs) to current retirees? This is in question right now w...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2411

Re: NJ state pension

If this pension cannot met its obligations and the taxpayers are unwilling to pony up then the benefits will be cut. The Original Poster's in-laws should plan on the possibility of their payments being cut in half. Because it is a government pension and there are politics involved, my suspicion is ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 25
Views: 2233

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

I was taking a look at the broker CDs being offered by Fidelity and came across a 10 yr 3.20% non-callable offering. Is there any reason I would not want this over a 10 year Treasury if I was going to make my purchase July 1? Seeing that these will be in tax deferred accounts and that these instrum...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2411

Re: NJ state pension

How underwater is the pension plan? Funding ratio of 54% in 2013. State is putting in 30-35% of its newly agreed upon amount (from a deal in 2010 or 11). So it's in rough shape. At the same time, I wonder about the likelihood of cuts to current retirees; it seems so politically unlikely, yet the st...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 33
Views: 4454

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

I looked back in my records, I first purchased shares in my TIPS fund back in August of 2003. I liked the idea of bonds that paid a fixed rate of interest plus inflation adjustments. When I learned about them, my reaction was cool!!! I came, I saw, I purchased. I wish I could say that I had a system...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 4512

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

Through no effort on our part 2008 adjusted our asset allocation. We are now back to ~60/40 and patiently waiting for the next obligatory adjustment. Yes, I had a very similar experience. I have often joked that if you don't rebalance that the market will do that for you!! My asset allocation went ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1667

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

Oh no! Another "must have" asset class for investors. For an asset class junkie like me this is terrible news! I barely dipped my toe in International Real Estate and now I will be tempted to add Emerging Market Debt. I own the Templeton Global Bond Fund in a workplace savings plan and thi...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2908

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

A simpler analysis would just look at peak earning age demographics in the US versus overall economic growth rate. If I recall, Bill McBride has done a fair bit of that---it predicted a 'headwind' for economic growth from 2005 to 2015 or so, due to the US baby bust 1968 to 1983 (there are far fewer...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2908

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Garland, I own the Templeton Global Bond Fund which has a lot of Emerging Markets debt in it. It is a Morningstar 5 star fund, I own the advisor class through a work place savings plan. It is a small piece of my portfolio but it sure has beaten the pants off an International Bond fund that has conce...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two main drivers of asset class returns – inflation and growth
Replies: 2
Views: 409

Re: Two main drivers of asset class returns – inflation and growth

The problem with "All Weather" portfolios is that you have to tolerate portfolio drag from certain investments that might have very low or negative rates of return for long periods of time. A good example of this is gold. The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has a 25% stake in gold which w...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...
Replies: 12
Views: 2277

Re: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...

There was a lot of discussion about rising rates in 2013. The markets had a bit of a "taper tantrum". Many on this forum were worried about the effect of rising interest rates on their bond funds. I joked about the great Boglehead Bond Panic of 2013. I think a lot of folks are pretty exhau...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 33
Views: 4454

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

My reaction to the article is that most everything is riskier than you think. Quality bonds are relatively safe but might have risks that an investor has not considered. Everything is riskier than we think because we don't know the future and that we don't know everything. My reaction is that there ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side (proposed series)
Replies: 35
Views: 4381

Re: The Other Side (proposed series)

The investors in Japan didn't have it good, but not as bad as perceived here in the United States. A couple things helped Japanese investors, slight deflation and a very strong Yen. There is another thread that discussed this. That being said, I would rather have been an investor in the United State...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 3841

Re: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?

I've been running simulations with http://www.cfiresim.com/ and found some interesting results. When simulating with historical data, 100% equity seems to be the safest strategy. When simulating Monte Carlo, 75% equity 25% bonds seems to be the safest strategy. This implies an equity-dominant alloc...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2908

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

I do recall Harry Dent's books which made predictions based on demographics. His predictions proved to be mostly wrong. I do think that aging populations will be a drag on market returns but it is hard to say how much. Two factors that would depress markets: first retirees are past their peak spendi...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 5840

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

My asset allocation is presently about 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash. I don't know if this is considered aggressive, the Vanguard 2025 Target Date Retirement has a similar allocation to mine. So at least Vanguard thinks my asset allocation at age 55 is appropriate. I have a bit more stocks becau...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, stagflation, and deflation
Replies: 1
Views: 411

Re: Inflation, stagflation, and deflation

It is hard to know the proper mix of assets to guard against different scenarios. Hedge funds, arbitrageurs, the big institutions try to anticipate all of this and may bid up the very asset classes you are counting on to protect you. There is also the using of leverage, shorting, and derivatives tha...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6888

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Nedsaid: When the Bogleheads' Chief Market Strategist writes, I take notice and read what he has to say. I am smiling as I right this as I am reminded by the T-Shirt philosopher that flattery gets me everywhere. Garland asked for Boglehead opinions so I thought I would take a whack at it. Unfortuna...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers quotes for today
Replies: 13
Views: 2236

Re: Jim Rogers quotes for today

It has been a while since I have seen Jim Rogers on TV so I had mostly forgotten about him. The commodities boom that he predicted ended in 2008 and didn't last nearly as long as predicted. He also is always talking about inflation coming back. He seems most often to be bearish. But somehow he and G...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a Look at Neuberger Berman funds, comparing to passive funds
Replies: 7
Views: 1037

Re: a Look at Neuberger Berman funds, comparing to passive funds

m personal definition of passive is that active involves judgment leading to individual security selection while passive is systematic process that is repeatable and doesn't involve judgment. So by that definition DFA, AQR, Bridgeway, Wisdom Tree, RAFI are all passive. Fama's definition was no indi...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18840

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

The 2008-2009 bear market was pretty scary. Bear markets seem to be bottomless, it is hard to see your portfolio drop in value day after day. For about a year, I put 100% of my new monies for investment into stocks but I did not rebalance from bonds to stocks. I was too scared. I also knew that if I...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No bonds?? All Equity portfolio in 20s
Replies: 71
Views: 7720

Re: No bonds?? All Equity portfolio in 20s

Hey guys. Charlie Ellis and Burton Malkiel have both said that a person in their 20's and 30's should be holding an all equity portfolio, such as VT, and then introduce bonds in their 40's. Does anyone agree or disagree with this? It does maximize the return...but obviously you have to have a stron...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:27 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]
Replies: 36
Views: 2222

Re: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]

Happy Birthday Mel. Hopefully all those candles on the birthday cake won't set off the smoke alarm!! Don't worry, I am getting up there too. Best wishes, Ned.
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel, "retirement period increased more than eightfold"
Replies: 12
Views: 2643

Re: Siegel, "retirement period increased more than eightfold"

I hereby endow the Nisiprius Chair of Investing in the Business School at my University. An excellent post.
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Concerns about upcoming Greece visit.
Replies: 26
Views: 2921

Re: Concerns about upcoming Greece visit.

I haven't been to Greece yet, but I have been to Europe four times. The advice applicable to other parts of Europe probably apply to Greece as well. If you have evening events that you want to attend, ask the concierge about reputable taxi companies and what a taxi ride back to the hotel should cost...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 21, 2015 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 158
Views: 12360

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

Fair enough, Victoria. I will be interested to see what help that people in your situation get. My suspicion is that this will get a lot of attention. I appreciate what government employees do for us each and every day and I hope everything possible is done. It has been a very interesting thread.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 158
Views: 12360

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

This is an interesting discussion. I can't believe the resignation that a lot of the retired employees and current federal employees have about this. If it were me, I would be on the phone with my local congressional office demanding an explanation of what happened and also how to resolve this issue...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: General financial plan direction?
Replies: 3
Views: 463

Re: General financial plan direction?

The good news is a paid off house and a very manageable debt burden. You have about $40K in total debt and that isn't bad. You might give us a clue about the living expenses in your area. When you are graduated and your wife can devote more time to her business, $60K in some places of the country is...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 21, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial and worldly advice to college kids
Replies: 27
Views: 3072

Re: Financial and worldly advice to college kids

My advice would be to network. Be active in activities in high school and college. Keep in touch with people best you can. You never know when knowing somebody can get you a job. Living below your means is also important. Things happen in life and having a cushion really helps in dealing with them. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 21, 2015 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dealing with the fear: "Will we be eating cat food?"
Replies: 90
Views: 13664

Re: Dealing with the fear: "Will we be eating cat food?"

People who grew up with very little often have feelings of insecurity about money. I don't know if this is the case of the original poster's husband. It also might be anxiety about a future bear market. These are not irrational fears and I don't think anyone needs to go rushing to the psychiatrist. ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 20, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wsj article today on reit investing
Replies: 34
Views: 5823

Re: Wsj article today on reit investing

Rob, you learned a very tough lesson that all investors learn. In bad markets, the correlation between asset classes increases, increases on the way down, and increases at the worst possible time. Sometimes the effect of adding non-correlating asset classes to a portfolio works and sometimes it doe...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wsj article today on reit investing
Replies: 34
Views: 5823

Re: Wsj article today on reit investing

I was also mentioned in that article. I viewed REITS first as an alternative investment; one that would have a lower correlation to the market. Then came 2008 and that fairy tale went out the window. I am far more methodical with my REIT investments (both domestic/international/timber). Rob, you le...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing 11 Million Dollar Gift
Replies: 80
Views: 11835

Re: Investing 11 Million Dollar Gift

I have no advice to offer, but am wondering if you could take a sum like that and just put it in a Vanguard LifeStrategy fund or something? One could do that, but it would not be tax-efficient. The OP could engineer a portfolio fo tax-exempt muni bond fund with tax-efficient total stock market inde...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 20, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wsj article today on reit investing
Replies: 34
Views: 5823

Re: Wsj article today on reit investing

Thanks, Iceport. I did the search and got around the pay wall. It was a good article and quotes three boglehead advisors: Ferri, Bernstein, and Swedroe. The article was a good primer for REIT investing and gave a good rationale for investing in them. I didn't know all this in 1998, the REIT fund loo...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 20, 2015 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Private Banking ever useful for simple Bogleheads
Replies: 35
Views: 4031

Re: Is Private Banking ever useful for simple Bogleheads

What exactly does a private banker do for you? I imagine myself walking past that public desk in the bank lobby where the recently graduated intern banker tugs at his cheap suit. I glance up at the corner office and see my private banker, silver-haired and smiling in his $2,000 suit as he beckons m...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 20, 2015 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stock bubble, bond bubble - I'm worried!
Replies: 16
Views: 2418

Re: Stock bubble, bond bubble - I'm worried!

Every day I hear nothing but chatter about a bond bubble or a stock bubble. Some commentators say it will be worse than 2008-9. I have a 40/60 S and D allocation. I know I supposed to hang on for the long run ( I'm 75.), but I'm not sure I can take another crash in the markets. What can I do? Fillo...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 20, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wsj article today on reit investing
Replies: 34
Views: 5823

Re: Wsj article today on reit investing

I have been an enthusiastic REIT investor since early 1998. I bought it because it was a new fund and an asset class that I had not invested in before. It just made sense. I didn't know that REITs had a similar return to US Stocks with low correlation. I saw it, I liked it, and I bought it. (I came,...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 19, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 158
Views: 12360

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

I looked at the CSID website and it looks impressive. The big thing to me would be this firm's reputation. Hopefully some folks will weigh in. It is hard to know who can be trusted and who cannot. I would consider signing up but I sure would check things out. It sounds like you have to give out a lo...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 19, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 158
Views: 12360

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

I am amazed at how little reaction there has been to this massive credit breach. Were I affected, I would consider whatever measures available to protect my data, my finances, and my identity. I was joking with my father the other day. He is changing banks and was working with Social Security to cha...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment Review
Replies: 79
Views: 6454

Re: Betterment Review

Normaldude, your last post should be in the Bogleheads' Member Post Hall of Fame. You made your point brilliantly with the photos. As they say, a picture is worth 1,000 words.
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Will Your Bond Holdings Come Through in the Clutch?"
Replies: 10
Views: 2814

Re: "Will Your Bond Holdings Come Through in the Clutch?"

This is a great point. Credit quality matters a lot in normal times and matter a whole lot in times of crisis. During the recent financial crisis of 2008-2009, treasuries and GNMAs did very well. Other segments of the bond market didn't do so well. High-Yield and lower quality bonds were hammered. I...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mom's broker moved to Stifel; preferreds
Replies: 5
Views: 816

Re: Mom's broker moved to Stifel; preferreds

My Mom (turning 90 years old this week!) has had the same broker for about 25 years. He was at one of the big-name, "full-service" retail brokerages. He never pushed inappropriate stuff on her, but did periodically keep her informed about new issues of preferred stocks, which were one of ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 18, 2015 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Change of heart on bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4350

Re: Change of heart on bonds

Currently my wife and I are age 29 with a low six figure portfolio at vanguard and net worth of around 400k (I own a small business with some real estate and other assets). We began investing in 2007 and at the time had very little money, our investments got crushed but we rode it out and kept buyi...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 18, 2015 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 371
Views: 30028

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It is clear to me that I understand part of what is supposed to make this fund work but that there are things that I don't have a full grasp of. I have been a "plain vanilla" investor, investing in index funds, active mutual funds, ETF's based on indexes, and individual stocks. I owned zer...

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