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Re: My evil plan backfired

I will repeat the advice given by the National Association of Investment Clubs. That is if you buy five carefully chosen stocks: one will bomb, three will perform about as expected, and one will perform beyond your wildest expectations. To do this right, it takes a lot of time to properly research s...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My evil plan backfired
Replies: 52
Views: 5754

Re: Tax Differed Variable Annuity

I have a Variable Annuity because it was in essence my 401k during a couple years I was temping and my first year working for a bank. During that time, I did not have access to a 401k plan. In those days, the maximum contribution to an IRA Account was $2,000/year. So I started up a lower cost variab...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Differed Variable Annuity
Replies: 16
Views: 1119

Re: How important is an international allocation?

Despite all of my enthusiasm for International investing, I am still mostly a US investor. I haven't calculated things precisely, but something like 25% of my stocks and 8% of my bonds are invested Internationally. I have done this because it seems like common sense to not have all your money in you...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4443

Re: How important is an international allocation?

As John Bogle often said, "In the investment business, nobody knows nothing." Isn't that the truth? It also sounds like something Yogi Berra would say. Mr. Bogle attributed it to one of his mentors. Edit: Another famous quote is from Mark Twain, "There are lies, damned lies, and stati...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4443

Re: How important is an international allocation?

To the untrained and unbiased eye, it would appear that the blue line (US only) had the smoothest ride. What it shows is that the portfolios with International outperformed from about 1983 on and that the US only portfolio caught up only recently. You can see that the US portfolio actually had lower...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4443

Re: "Mind the Gap"

I think there is a performance gap. Mr. Bogle believes in it and spent a whole chapter on the subject in his Little Common Sense Book on Investing. I think the phenomenon is real but not nearly as bad as portrayed. The little guy or gal who is in there investing the best they can are not the helples...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mind the Gap"
Replies: 9
Views: 2263

Re: How important is an international allocation?

Nisiprius, it is good to challenge assumptions and I thank you for posting your graph. I certainly am not accusing anyone of cherry picking data. I just can't help but notice that US Stocks and International Stocks tend to outperform each other at different times. It just seems common sense that thi...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4443

Re: Who should be concerned?

I own a Target Date fund at Fidelity and I have noticed that they have changed their allocations. Not too long ago they had 7% in a commodities fund and then noticed later that it got trimmed to one percent. My favorite mutual fund company has Target Date and Target Risk funds. I don't own any of th...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 219
Views: 17190

Re: How important is an international allocation?

...When one asset class zigs a bit while the other one zags a bit, you get a bit smoother ride in your portfolio... Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund, VTWSX, is globally cap-weighted and thus about 50/50 US/International and ought to show that "smoother ride." Since inception, has the...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4443

Re: How important is an international allocation?

To me, a lot of this boils down to broad diversification versus narrower diversification. If I see an asset class that over time has real returns over inflation and does not correlate exactly with the US Stock Market, I am interested in owning it. I am more comfortable with having some of my financi...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4443

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

note Andy is a Ph.D. in psychics . . . Extremely useful for market predictions! LOL!!! LOL!!! LOL!!! I have always joked about future testing portfolios but with the Director of Research having a Ph.D. in psychics that is now possible! Let the future testing begin!! I have to admit that I am someti...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4080

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

nedsaid wrote: Garland, we did get a benefit from the increased government debt in that it helped reflate the real estate and financial markets. In essence, it was a swap of government debt for private debt. I believe that debt is money. The write-off of subprime and other mortgage debt took a lot ...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3722

Re: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"

Don't forget the mid-caps which perform in similar manner. Many people believe the mid-caps are the "sweet spot" of the stock market.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"
Replies: 14
Views: 2106

Re: Mother-in-laws portfolio. Need advice.

Your mom isn't doing badly but we need more information. What is your mom's asset allocation? What percentage in US Stocks? What percentage in International Stocks? What percentage in US Bonds? What percentage in International Bonds? You can run the portfolio through the Morningstar X-Ray for free. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mother-in-laws portfolio. Need advice.
Replies: 9
Views: 1141

Re: What Age Did You First Ponder Financial Independence?

In my mid 20's I was introduced to the concept while driving in my police car and listening to Bob Brinker. I remember his term for it was critical mass. Yes, I was an avid listener to Bob Brinker as well. I think I discovered him in 1986 as he was on one of the big radio stations in my area. I lea...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Age Did You First Ponder Financial Independence?
Replies: 74
Views: 6626

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

This reminds me of when our tour group stopped at the Rhine River in Germany and we were told this was the border of the Roman Empire. On one side was civilization and on the other side was barbarism. Of course, the Germanic peoples would take issue with that. I suppose there is a bit of frustration...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2328

Re: Teaching a responsible teen about money

I really think the best thing that a parent can do is to set a good example. Good habits that are modeled tend to be repeated by children. Of course personality has a lot to do with this. Some people have temperaments that are better suited to good financial management than others. Good financial pr...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teaching a responsible teen about money
Replies: 12
Views: 966

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

This reminds me of the quote from former Yankees pitcher Jim Boutin. He said that by the time I get to where it is at, it has moved somewhere else. Investing in Low Volatility Funds is a great idea but it seems like everyone has beaten me to it. I suppose the time to invest is when no one cares abou...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2541

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

Garland wrote a good post despite a math error and getting teased a lot about it. I had no idea that a math error in a blog post caused the decline of the British empire! He is dipping his toe in the water and taking a flier into this fund. I have read that Dr. Bill Bernstein has also commented that...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2328

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

I read that Rick Ferri believed that for gold to be within the long term trend line of keeping its purchasing power that its price should be about $800. Do I remember correctly? Gold would still need to drop by about 1/3.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2328

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

For whatever it is worth, my take is that being able to count on Social Security might allow a retiree to be somewhat more aggressive. Perhaps 10% more in stocks than what such an investor would normally have. But that is about as far as I would take it. I would not take the present value of my est...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7262

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

I have thought about doing this very thing for a while. The Precious Metals fund has been doing so poorly since it peaked on April 30, 2011. Looking at a growth of $10,000 over 10 years chart it went from $27,056.18 on April 30, 2011 to $10,190.60 today. Over 10 years, this fund went from $10,000 to...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2328

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

Great thought provoking post, Simplegift. Also enjoyed nedsaid's comments about debt. Debt levels including mortgage debt, other personal debt, and governmental debt have provided tailwinds for developed economies for decades. That engine is running out of steam. The problem is that debt used to gi...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3722

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

I did see a Jack Bogle interview where he said that many retirees were too conservative and did not have enough in stocks. He made statements to the effect that because retirees could count on Social Security for steady income that retirees could be more aggressive with their portfolios. If memory s...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7262

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

Steve, I don't think you have messed up at all. If you stick with your plan, I think you will do well. The small/value tilts will start working again when you see article after article debunking the small and value premiums and touting the superior performance of large growth. I have noticed that my...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2541

Re: Future Stock Returns in an Aging World?

Simplegift wrote:
Honestly, I'm not aspiring to become the Harry Dent of the Bogleheads Forum! :wink:


Harry Dent was on to something but economies are complex and demographics are one factor. A very big factor but not the only factor.
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Stock Returns in an Aging World?
Replies: 25
Views: 2801

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

I am just saying that credit expansion is a big factor. A discussion is possible without being political or getting into economic policy. All other things being equal, credit expansion will aid economic growth. Credit contraction will hinder economic growth. This is a factor. I suppose an aging popu...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3722

Re: Portfolio Review 32/37 year olds

A couple comments. Yes, you could be more aggressive with your asset allocation because of your wife's pension but I don't recommend this. Here is why: 1) Many pension plans both public and private are underfunded and are counting on unrealistic investment returns; 2) You might think of a pension as...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review 32/37 year olds
Replies: 6
Views: 1057

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds

For whatever it is worth, here are my thoughts on this. I like to create my own portfolios using a good Target Risk fund as a model. If I don't like a couple of the funds the Target Risk fund uses, I can substitute funds that I like better. Or I might have a bit different take on the asset classes I...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2960

Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

"What the crowd is doing: Racing into low-volatility funds that focus on boring Steady Eddie companies like Procter & Gamble. As a result, the price/earnings ratio for stocks in the PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF is 12% higher than the broad market. Yet, "low vol" shar...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2541

Re: Managing Endowment Funds in a Bogleheaded Way

I would counsel eternal vigilance over your non-profit's endowment funds. I have always been amazed at the power of charisma and smooth speech. People blessed with such talents can turn the unbelievable into the believable and nonsense into what seems like divine revelation. Sooner or later your boa...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing Endowment Funds in a Bogleheaded Way
Replies: 3
Views: 473

Re: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?

All I can say was that the incident really scared me. It was one of the motivating factors for me to upgrade my computer from Windows XP to Windows 7 which I did one year ago. XP was getting leakier and leakier. I did research on the "FBI Money Pack" Virus and viruses in general and found ...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?
Replies: 29
Views: 3005

Re: "Assessing the Risk of Using Just One Fund Company.."

Another thing I have wondered about would be the effect of an EMP attack on our country or the effects of a burst of radiation from an extreme solar flare. What effect does this have upon data? It does worry me a bit now that financial assets are now mostly electronic blips on some kind of storage m...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Assessing the Risk of Using Just One Fund Company.."
Replies: 18
Views: 2736

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

Simplegift, another item that should be considered is the credit expansion that took place after World War II and probably peaked in 2008. How much more can the average American afford to leverage themselves? Three percent real economic growth is considered good. My guess is that population growth a...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3722

Re: Vanguard on portfolio inflation protection.

I don't know about anybody else but I am keeping the inflation fighters in my portfolio: TIPS, REITs, US Stocks. I am also fighting inflation and hedging the dollar a bit with International Stocks and International Bonds. I am not worried about runaway inflation like we had during the 1970's but kee...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on portfolio inflation protection.
Replies: 2
Views: 520

Re: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?

I have not used security software in over 5 years now. As long as you don't do anything stupid on your computer, you don't get viruses. I don't share, and I sure as hell don't install. Ahem. (Clearing my throat). Viruses are embedded in websites and can come in right through your browser. That is w...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?
Replies: 29
Views: 3005

Re: What Behavior Gap?

This is a big problem that faces investors who are trying to do the right thing for their portfolios, what do you do in the face of conflicting data? I have heard about the Dalbar studies that show a behavior gap between the returns of the funds versus the returns of the investors invested in those ...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Behavior Gap?
Replies: 23
Views: 1825

Re: Shiller - How Scary Is the Bond Market?

The answer is that we really don't know. My guess is that a portfolio of investment grade intermediate term bonds could lose 5-10% in a bond "crash". But whatever a bond crash would look like, it would be less scary than a bond crash. What is really scary for the bond market would be a ret...
by nedsaid
Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - How Scary Is the Bond Market?
Replies: 29
Views: 4375

Re: Five most important things to be a successful investor?

I don't know if I can come up with a list of the top five but let me offer a few thoughts. And yes, I love the Yogi Berra quotes. 1) Half of investing is 90% behavioral. (I am channeling Yogi Berra here). 2) That restaurant is so crowded that no one goes there any more. This is a Yogi Berra quote. T...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five most important things to be a successful investor?
Replies: 31
Views: 3148

Re: Financial Advice by Demographics

Financial advice by demographics at its best is tailored advice to specific groups of people. At its worst, it can seem downright creepy. I have a dislike for certain websites that send me e-mails that say, "Do you know so and so or this and that?" My immediate reaction is: "It's no o...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Advice by Demographics
Replies: 5
Views: 1094

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

Hello, I have been enjoying this site for quite some time and have been impressed with the information found within the forums. I am a financial analyst at one of the major wall street banks, and find valuable information here from various posters. I am fully on board with basically all of the mant...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 221
Views: 15401

Re: Is There a Next Jack Bogle

I am not glossing over Bogle getting fired at Wellington. I have seen him talk about this in several interviews. It is no big secret. It shows that he is human and even he got caught up in the go-go era. The idea of indexing makes so much sense that somebody would have inventing the index fund soone...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is There a Next Jack Bogle
Replies: 37
Views: 3806

Re: My portfolio diversification

If you didn't want to bother with monitoring your individual stocks you could instead use two Vanguard funds. I forget the exact names but Vanguard has a High Dividend Fund and a Dividend Growth fund. You could use a combination of those two funds in place of your individual stocks. Vanguard would d...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio diversification
Replies: 10
Views: 854

Re: My portfolio diversification

GIM is the Templeton Global Income Fund. It looks to me that this is a closed end mutual fund run by Franklin Templeton. My assumption is that it is a fairly well run fund, I saw that the expense ratio was 0.73%. I have no opinion on this. It looks like it is trading at a 8 1/2 percent discount to N...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio diversification
Replies: 10
Views: 854

Re: Is There a Next Jack Bogle

No, there will not be a next John Bogle. He is one of a kind and in many ways a product of his times. He grew up in the 1930's and 1940's which no doubt helped shape him. He saw the Great Depression and World War II. The time period showed that things could not only go wrong but very badly wrong. So...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is There a Next Jack Bogle
Replies: 37
Views: 3806

Re: "Picking Winners?"

Hiring stock pickers doesn't help too much or even hiring stock picker pickers. This is why I index more and more. The greatest share of my investments with new money since 1999 have been into index funds.
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Picking Winners?"
Replies: 5
Views: 520

Re: Variable Annuity

I would be tempted to take the payments over a set number of years, I would not annuitize based on her age. If she died the day after you annuitized, you would lose the whole thing. I think if you just cash out, you might get hit with a big tax bill and it will be taxed at ordinary income rates. You...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Annuity
Replies: 4
Views: 426

Re: My portfolio diversification

Pops, I think you have an excellent plan. I have read your posts on the dividend threads and I am sure you got beaten up with foam rubber hammers like I did. Your stock portfolio will take at least minimal maintenance, that is selling stocks when their future prospects turn negative. But that means ...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio diversification
Replies: 10
Views: 854

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

This is what is frustrating to an investor. If I remember right, Vanguard changed its small cap value index too. So much for staying the course.
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 88
Views: 5968

Re: Steering family away from costly Financial Adviser or MY

Intellecutally intelligent people have a problem conceptualizing fees and issues like tax drag via "churning". I am a physician and never understood (or thought it was important) the difference between 0.1% ER and 1% ER - the numbers seem so close together :oops: My sister is a radiologis...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Steering family away from costly Financial Adviser or MYOB?
Replies: 28
Views: 2244
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