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by nedsaid
Tue May 26, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would be the best investment options for me?
Replies: 4
Views: 252

Re: What would be the best investment options for me?

I think for now I would pick a Fidelity Freedom Fund corresponding with your retirement date and be done with it. At some point, you will move to another job where you will have better options. If your new employer accepts rollovers from your old plan, you could do that. Or roll it into an IRA at Va...
by nedsaid
Tue May 26, 2015 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Church Endowment RFP
Replies: 8
Views: 541

Re: Church Endowment RFP

Were I in position of responsibility in a church that had an endowment fund, I would insist on a couple of things. First, you would want some pretty strong set of documents. When money is involved, you want good governance. You want the documents to be properly executed according to the law and acco...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1084

Re: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing

Nedsaid, Seems like you feel a tilter necessarily can't be a hard core believer in market efficiency. If we feel there are premia, if they are compensation for risk doesn't that fit with efficiency? Even some of the behavioral factors might persist in an efficient market if there are limits to arbi...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

JoMoney, a couple of things have come to me from this discussion are don't practice guruism and asset classes have a bad habit of behaving in a way you don't expect. I also realized the importance of checking things out for yourself and not just believe what someone else is asserting. I am a big fan...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1084

Re: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing

What is depressing is that as I have thought over the advice I have given to people on this forum, it would be amazingly easy to program a "Nedsaid-bot" with algorithms that would sound astonishly like my posts. I like your Nedsaid-bot - almost as much as I like your "dividend fairy....
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1084

Re: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing

Ned, Why is this depressing? It's like Jimmy Breslin in "How the good guys finally won", getting beyond the smoke and mirrors. The emperor has no clothes! I just have this sense that the water is draining from the bathtub, that 0.25% AUM is the new normal, coupled with fund ERs that are l...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1084

Re: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing

What is depressing is that as I have thought over the advice I have given to people on this forum, it would be amazingly easy to program a "Nedsaid-bot" with algorithms that would sound astonishly like my posts. For example, a question could be asked if you believe markets are perfectly ef...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1084

Re: Robo-Advisers and Behavioral Investing

I don't think you can get around the behavioral issue. Even market professionals and big institutions are prone to panic but less so than the individual investor. Gosh, if you get the robots to do everything then that should take the emotion out of it. Who programs the robots? Humans of course. A cl...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 2:05 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Memorial Day
Replies: 18
Views: 1026

Re: Memorial Day

A distant cousin of mine fought in World War II. He was lined up and machine gunned by the Germans but somehow he survived his wounds. It wasn't at the Battle of the Bulge but as I recall this happened in Belgium. He was in the Army Hospital in Vancouver, Washington and family members went to see hi...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodity futures?
Replies: 3
Views: 303

Re: Commodity futures?

This is a very interesting idea both as a relatively cheap asset class and also as a method of portfolio insurance.

What are the experts here on the forum recommending?
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

For someone with no finance background, nor more than a few years of investing experience, this is an interesting thread. That said, I am not sure why the topic of dividends brings out such strong (seeming) negative emotions from some. Sure, when someone asks about a dividend strategy here, it's fi...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 million dollar mistake meeting with MIL's financial guy
Replies: 37
Views: 10004

Re: 2 million dollar mistake meeting with MIL's financial guy

When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. To an insurance salesman, the answer to every conceivable financial problem is more Whole Life Insurance. I would look elsewhere for financial advice.
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When is it safe to share financial details with gf, future wife
Replies: 53
Views: 4499

Re: When is it safe to share financial details with gf, future wife

Maybe some pre-marital counseling? I would suggest this not only for this issue but for other things needing discussion. My best guess is that your girlfriend has a pretty good idea anyway. Now that your relationship is pretty serious and proceeding unto engagement, I would go ahead and start talkin...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I really need International equities in my portfolio ?
Replies: 45
Views: 3283

Re: Do I really need International equities in my portfolio ?

Question: Do I really need to have International equities in my portfolio ? I am in the process of re-balancing and did some research on the international category using VGTSX as a proxy. What I found in my research is: a) about 1/3 of revenues of the S%P 500 are derived from overseas sales; b) ove...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Larry, I read through the articles and in the shorter term your predictions were wrong. I do think you will be proven correct longer term as valuations really do matter. High Dividend did better than you thought at the time. Larry, your articles also warned against Dividend Growth. Let me summarize ...
by nedsaid
Mon May 25, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Larry, thanks for posting the links. I didn't get through all of them but I have read your opinions on this before. One of your articles mentioned that High Dividend was a value strategy but that there were better ways to capture the premium. However when I pulled up the chart showing the performanc...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First in four part series on four big bank active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1108

Re: First in four part series on four big bank active funds

I was surprised that the Goldman Sachs fund ratios were lower than I thought. Were these expense ratios for advisor or institutional share classes? They seemed low for what would be offered to retail investors. There were also no mention of sales loads. Typically, bank or broker funds offered to the...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

The articles and research that I have seen is that a dividend strategy is a pretty good strategy. It certainly isn't the only thing out there but there are worse things out there. What I attempted to do in the past was a "value and dividend" strategy. Heck, Larry Swedroe himself admitted t...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Now we are on to the third question. Is there a difference between "self liquidating" dividend stocks or an investor selling shares of a non-dividend paying stock? My honest answer is that I don't really know. What I do know is that there is a psychological advantage in a bear market to ha...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Let's take a look at the Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index growth of 10,000 chart. It doesn't go back quite 10 years but far back enough that we can see how it did during the last bear market in 2008-2009. http://i59.tinypic.com/x10js4.jpg We can see that it fell just as hard as the S&P 500 and...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Ehec, you raise interesting points and it would be interesting to see academic research on this. A couple questions have been raised. How do dividend stocks act in a bear market? Do dividend stocks provide bear market protection? Is there a difference between "self liquidating" dividend st...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mt Hood: 5% chance of eruption in next 30 years.
Replies: 12
Views: 1899

Re: Mt Hood: 5% chance of eruption in next 30 years.

I remember our high school basketball coach talking to his team about good shot selection. You want to take an open shot within range. Every so often a player would take a difficult shot, either from long range or being heavily guarded or both. The coach would flinch at these shots but he had a sayi...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 58
Views: 3180

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

I can't speak for Stemikger but I will take a stab at it. Dr. Bernstein talks about "deep risk" and "shallow risk." Shallow risk is the risk that comes from market volatility. Markets in most cases recover and losses from market volatility are most often temporary. Deep risk rela...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much is enough diversification?
Replies: 10
Views: 1214

Re: How much is enough diversification?

I am curious, why 10% in Japan? Why not use a more broad-based Asian index instead? This is what I wanted but I couldn't find one with an Irish domicile. They mostly seem to be either Japan only or Asia-ex Japan. The emerging markets 3 biggest weightings are china, taiwan and south Korea, so the co...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

The reason that Standard Oil (ExxonMobil) beat IBM was that the price investors paid for IBM stock was just too high. IBM had an average P/E of 26.76 during that period and Standard Oil had an average P/E of 12.97. IBM had an average dividend yield of 2.18% versus 5.19% for Standard Oil. Is this th...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

There seem to be several overlapping issues in the above discussion over weather dividends matter. In my experience most people (so, not most of the folks on this board) arguing that dividends "matter," turn out, when pressed, to believe implicitly (if not explicitly) that dividend paying...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

.... The company could also spin off divisions into separate companies to the shareholders and that also is another form of a dividend payment. It's funny how sometimes the market favors mergers, and at other points it wants to break companies apart. It's easy to relate to the idea of a big bloated...
by nedsaid
Sun May 24, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

My statements are well within investment orthodoxy, they don't just come out of thin air and they are not out in left field somewhere. I don't know, your proclamations are so vague that it's hard to tell if you're in Reality Town or Seeking Alphaville...but same goes for Siegel, so you're in good c...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

There does get to be a point at which a business cannot effectively reinvest all of its earnings back into the business. In that case, it is in the best interest of both the business and its shareholders that the excess cash be returned to its shareholders. Stock market history has many examples of...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

I think part of the problem is that classifying stocks into "dividend-paying" stocks and "non-dividend paying" stocks doesn't make sense in the first place. The universe of dividend-paying stocks is filled with candidates that are fundamentally quite dissimilar to one another. T...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

There does get to be a point at which a business cannot effectively reinvest all of its earnings back into the business. In that case, it is in the best interest of both the business and its shareholders that the excess cash be returned to its shareholders. Stock market history has many examples of ...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Dividends don't come without a cost, and there are plenty of examples of businesses going further into debt, selling off capital assets, and issuing new shares (diluting the existing equity), to pay out dividends. Dividends can be "faked", Bernie Madoff paid out dividends to his clients. ...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

No, I don't believe in the dividend fairy and yes, I largely agreed with Larry Swedroe's article. And yes, I am an Accountant who has passed the CPA Exam. I am amazed that folks on this board don't think that I can grasp basic financial concepts. ;o) In Jeremy Siegel's book he compared IBM versus St...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market bond funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1233

Re: Emerging market bond funds

I own the Templeton Global Bond fund. It invests in these types of bonds and it actually has done better than another International Bond Fund that I own that invests mostly in developed market government bonds. It has a great track record and I trust that the managers know what they are doing. It is...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much is enough diversification?
Replies: 10
Views: 1214

Re: How much is enough diversification?

Adding more ETFs does not necessarily add more diversification, it does add complexity. You might achieve more diversification by changing ETFs. As nesaid implies you could add to diversification by using an asia/pacific developed market ETF instead of the Japan ETF. Also you could use a small valu...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near
Replies: 54
Views: 6750

Re: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near

I deeply respect Bill Gross and I think he is well worth listening to. I sure would not be selling everything and running to the hills based on his commentary. There is nothing wrong with being nervous, this might be a good time to lighten up on stocks a bit and shorten maturities on bonds. So far, ...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

John Bogle has said himself that dividends are an important component of return. There are two components of return from stocks: dividends and capital appreciation. As I recall, historically half of the return of stocks has come from dividends. Dividends are not irrelevant. There are good arguments ...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much is enough diversification?
Replies: 10
Views: 1214

Re: How much is enough diversification?

I am curious, why 10% in Japan? Why not use a more broad-based Asian index instead?
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?
Replies: 14
Views: 1403

Re: Optimal Asset Allocation across Investment Horizons?

-- And PIMCO found "... from 1927 to 2012, the correlation between the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries – as calculated by calendar year based on monthly data – has changed sign 29 times, and has ranged from −93% to +86%." Sometimes they moved in synch, and other times they zigged and...
by nedsaid
Sat May 23, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4211

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

The higher dividend strategy and the dividend growth strategies used to work pretty well. Dividends have always been an important component of the returns you get from stocks. Higher dividends were often a sign of value and dividend growth was a sign of quality. Jeremy Siegel wrote a book called &qu...
by nedsaid
Fri May 22, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing the 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 535

Re: Fixing the 401k

A couple of other things that would help would be access to advice for zero or low cost to plan participants and also offering the low-cost broad index funds as investment options.
by nedsaid
Fri May 22, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the world is "upside down"
Replies: 5
Views: 1298

Re: the world is "upside down"

A big part of whatever success I have had as an investor has been the refusal to chase returns. I have had a value orientation my entire investing career and that has helped. It really helped that I didn't chase the high tech boom of the later 1990's. I had some investments in this sector but I was ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing the 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 535

Re: Fixing the 401k

How to fix the 401k? Seeing that these and other workplace savings plans are replacing pensions, the first question to be asked is why not invest these like pensions? The implication of this would be to make the default option a boring old 60/40 balanced fund, a moderate risk target risk fund, or a ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multiple Account Management
Replies: 30
Views: 1062

Re: Multiple Account Management

For what it is worth, I manage my accounts pretty much the same. My retirement accounts look like this: ZZZ Mutual Fund Company IRA (I manage this as a Moderate Risk Portfolio) Workplace Savings Plan (I manage this as a Moderate Risk Portfolio) Brokerage IRA (A quirky portfolio, I buy stuff here tha...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age 56, Need Asset Allocation Advice
Replies: 16
Views: 1041

Re: Age 56, Need Asset Allocation Advice

Lost: I am about your age (a couple of years ahead of you). I take a somewhat contrarian view here at BH - during your accumulation phase (working years), I think there are only two determining factors for asset allocation: 1. Can you sleep well at night? 2. Would a 40% market drop cause you to cha...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 46
Views: 2230

Re: Market Cap and Value

Nedsaid: Oh my gosh. My secret is out. Toto has pulled back the curtain and the mighty Nedsaid is just a man bellowing into a microphone and pulling some levers. Yep, I pretty much eye-ball it. I also take a look at market sentiment. I have admitted to "investing by feel." I am sure that ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 46
Views: 2230

Re: Market Cap and Value

I do want to say that numbers in business and in investing are very useful if not vital. I remember a fellow who was in the wholesale sewing machine business. He was a very good businessman and an intelligent guy but he did get outside help from his CPA. His CPA got him to put in a computerized inve...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 46
Views: 2230

Re: Market Cap and Value

Thanks nedsaid for your super interesting reply. I like what you said about narrative vs. numbers. Having numbers without a story behind them is not enough to go on as an investor. I don't like most of the factors in the great factor zoo because I don't buy the stories behind them. Take momentum: Y...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me help my retired father -- preferred stocks
Replies: 24
Views: 1677

Re: Help me help my retired father -- preferred stocks

I have never owned preferred stocks. My best guess is that their performance characteristics would be a lot like plain old bonds but with more risk than bonds. There is an interest rate risk here, if interest rates go up he would likely see his preferred stocks drop in value. My guess that they are ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2776

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Bob, you are a very knowledgeable poster. Why not post a market outlook and what we should be doing with our money? For example, are stocks and bonds overvalued? Perhaps you could comment on those things in detail that Mr. Asness didn't mention. Perhaps some thoughts on asset allocation. For example...

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