Search found 3776 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Jul 05, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050
Replies: 19
Views: 1902

Re: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050

In the year 2050, I will be 90-91 years old. I will make a deal. If Bogleheads is still in existence and if I am still living, I will restart this thread and report back. We will see if the projections worked out. My dad is 85 years old, with the advances in medical knowledge I might just make it.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2279

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

I am reminded of the old joke that economists predicted seven out of the last four recessions. It isn't that forecasters are idiots, the economy is just too complex for models to have full explanatory power. Also a whole lot rides on public confidence. If public confidence is in the toilet, you can ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 184
Views: 16603

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

As of right now, the markets seem to be taking the "No" vote in stride. Dow Futures down 43, S&P down 2.75, and NASDAQ up 3.75. The reaction seems to have happened last week.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

http://i58.tinypic.com/mn2e5v.png This chart should give you a partial answer. It charts the Vanguard High Yield Corporate Bond Fund against High Yield Bonds and the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Over 10 years, Vanguard High Yield grew from $10,000 to $18,927. High Yield Bonds grew to $18,167 a...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 45
Views: 3046

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

Yes, I do think we obsess too much over our portfolios. For one thing, we don't know the future. The other thing is that financial data moves all over the place, it is all a moving target. Evaluating data from the past and then projecting that out into the future is helpful but is far from foolproof...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Utils and REITs down this year?
Replies: 12
Views: 1168

Re: Why are Utils and REITs down this year?

1/2 of the year is over and my Util (-9% :( ) and REIT (-4.5%) funds are down. Why? At least partly because of the formula for present value: https://upload.wikimedia.org/math/7/0/8/708d5a4b049981c10c5403d6a72ba5ee.png The market is expecting i , the "risk-free interest rate" to increase ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing
Replies: 43
Views: 3107

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing

Financial companies and financial advisors will ultimately deliver what the client asks for and Paul Merriman is no exception. Most of his clients did the buy and hold strategy but he did have clients who wanted to market time and he accommodated them. I think he believes in market timing. Market ti...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

There is a lot of videos on YouTube and Morningstar that have John Bogle interviews. You could do a Google search and see what comes up. These topics have also been discussed on this forum. Try Morningstar first.
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you start?
Replies: 30
Views: 2199

Re: How did you start?

Nicolas wrote:Wall $treet Week, with Louis Rukeyser, my favorite TV program. What a guy.


Yes, Louis and his guests taught me a lot about investing. I also learned a lot from Bob Brinker and his MoneyTalk radio program.
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Books - Updated?
Replies: 8
Views: 876

Re: Jack Bogle Books - Updated?

Of course I enjoyed the book. I enjoy any of John Bogle's writings and interviews.
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Books - Updated?
Replies: 8
Views: 876

Re: Jack Bogle Books - Updated?

Bogleheads, It appears that Wiley (i.e. Wiley Investment Classics) has released two updated Jack Bogle books: 1) Bogle on Mutual Funds 2) Jack Bogle on Investing - The First 50 Years Has anyone purchased these books? Thoughts and feedback appreciated. Best. I purchased the "Bogle on Mutual Fun...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Book Titles from Nisiprius Press
Replies: 21
Views: 3399

Re: New Book Titles from Nisiprius Press

Wealth Without Work . A Nedsaid rewrite of the Charles J. Givens classic "Wealth Without Risk." Updated with new investment opportunities uncovered since Mr. Given's demise. Just follow my system of investing in NASDAQ Bulletin Board Stocks and mining stocks on the Vancouver Stock Exchang...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

To summarize, investment grade dropped by 13% (Lack_ey), TIPS by 12%, and High Yield by 28%. From memory, I remember seeing on this forum that the Vanguard Corporate Bond Fund dropped by 11%. That should give you an idea of the risks of different classes of bonds in a market rout. Treasuries were a...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 45
Views: 5978

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

Just curious, does anyone know the oldest TDF still existing? To me, the heart of TDFs creation, and the majority (but by no means only) investor type would be all about the black box aspect. Put reasonable money in, get a reasonable retirement, no questions asked. The success or failure of the con...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

To summarize, investment grade dropped by 13% (Lack_ey), TIPS by 12%, and High Yield by 28%. From memory, I remember seeing on this forum that the Vanguard Corporate Bond Fund dropped by 11%. That should give you an idea of the risks of different classes of bonds in a market rout. Treasuries were ac...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

Just for fun, I will also post the graph for the Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities Fund. This fund also was hit hard. On 8/31/2008, this fund was worth $11,837 on the growth of $10,000 over 10 years chart. The fund fell to $10,392 on 11/30/2008. That was a drop of just over 12%. http://i62.tin...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

http://i58.tinypic.com/mn2e5v.png This chart should give you a partial answer. It charts the Vanguard High Yield Corporate Bond Fund against High Yield Bonds and the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Over 10 years, Vanguard High Yield grew from $10,000 to $18,927. High Yield Bonds grew to $18,167 a...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

If we had short term volatility in the bond market during which some bonds dropped 20%, chances are that stocks would drop too in price. In such a scenario, a lot of folks would be too scared to rebalance. I don't think there is going to be a total meltdown in the bond market. What could happen is s...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 3612

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

I do not believe that we are in a bond market bubble but I do believe bonds to be pretty expensive right now. If you have a long investment horizon, any volatility in the bond market would not be of concern to you. If interest rates go up, the Net Asset Value of your bond funds will drop but if you ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)
Replies: 11
Views: 785

Re: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)

I am for the most part a "set it and forget it" type of investor. A change in the mix of assets or in the allocation of those assets should not be made except for a darned good reason. The reason for this is that performance chasing is hard to resist and probably most portfolio changes are...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 58
Views: 3553

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

My equity/bond allocation, like Robert T's is high, and I choose only high quality intermediate term bonds for the same reason. I also keep a large (2 years living expenses) cash cushion in Prime Money Market Fund. I am retired and have no income other than SS and stock or money market sales. I wan...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: financial adviser told me not to invest too much in 401k
Replies: 86
Views: 6427

Re: financial adviser told me not to invest too much in 401k

My point is that just because it seems extremely likely that the share of national income being paid in federal taxes is likely to increase, it doesn't necessarily follow that your personal income tax rates will increase. I'm a strong believer in having a reasonable level of tax diversification wit...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you start?
Replies: 30
Views: 2199

Re: How did you start?

So how did everyone here become so knowledgeable ? In my case, I read a lot of books on financial topics, watched financial programs on TV, and consumed a lot of articles in newspapers and magazines. The main thing was that I got started investing. When you have your own hard earned money on the li...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 7087

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

I lost respect for Paul Krugman years ago. He was a fine economist but he became a political partisan and he lost all objectivity. He wrote the same column over and over about our former President, pulling out his thesaurus, using a different word each week to describe him, and then congratulating h...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller : US stocks pricey; time to think international
Replies: 32
Views: 3647

Re: Shiller : US stocks pricey; time to think international

Taking a "Vanguard World Stock" approach to equity allocation really takes the steam and excitement out of these sorts of cautions and warnings. Although as El-Erian and others have said of cap-weighted indexes, in light of slowing developed world growth and structural shifts in the world...
by nedsaid
Fri Jul 03, 2015 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 7087

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

It is a classic case of many people being reality challenged. The Greeks have the ability to help themselves a lot here but first they have to accept reality. They have overspent and lived beyond their means. They have to understand that retiring in your fifties is not sustainable for the country.
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 73
Views: 5046

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

I have not given up on TIPS. I still own them. I have not given up on REITs. I still own them though I took a portion and invested in International Real Estate. I have not given up on my Timber REITs. I have not given up on common stocks. By golly, if inflation ever rears its ugly head again this b...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let’s Celebrate the Independent Adviser
Replies: 10
Views: 1413

Re: Let’s Celebrate the Independent Adviser

My friend went into the brokerage business and my Bank CD IRA went to him. He lasted in the business for about a year and broker #2 inherited me. Broker #2 was a good guy and didn't churn me but when he became office manager, I was too small and I was cast off. I then went to Broker #3 who was a nic...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 73
Views: 5046

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

I have not given up on TIPS. I still own them. I have not given up on REITs. I still own them though I took a portion and invested in International Real Estate. I have not given up on my Timber REITs. I have not given up on common stocks. By golly, if inflation ever rears its ugly head again this bo...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 45
Views: 5978

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

Hi nedsaid, Are you now allocating 30% of fixed income to Total International Bond as Vanguard recommends? Do you like foreign bonds? Positives and negatives? No, my foreign bonds are maybe 2.5% of my portfolio and maybe 8% or so of my fixed income. I own two such funds, one of which invests heavil...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding debt markets
Replies: 5
Views: 655

Re: Understanding debt markets

Rxforinvesting, your posts are very interesting and I have enjoyed reading them. I am beginning to wonder if I have been fighting the last war, that is inflation. Perhaps I should be more concerned about deflation. In that light, historically very low interest rates don't look so low. What is low ca...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2502

Re: NJ state pension

nedsaid, Thanks for all your insight and tempered remarks. Contrary to what most people believe, the investor still assumes risk even as a participant in a pension plan. Promised benefits can be cut. While that's a very general statement, it does not speak to the legal — or even moral — justificati...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2502

Re: NJ state pension

I don't want to get into the politics of this and get the thread locked. This is a very important discussion though. My advice to those in government pension plans is to check upon the health of such plans. To what degree are future obligations funded? In my state, it is about 80%. People in such pl...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2502

Re: NJ state pension

I had been under the impression that the Detroit pensions had been cut. This apparently is still being litigated.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2502

Re: NJ state pension

Municipal pensions are often state pensions. Stockton, California participates in CALPERS. Stockton owes CALPERS a lot of money and CALPERS has a shortfall of its own. This is a Stockton problem and this is a California problem. A reason this is being so heavily litigated is that if Stockton is allo...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2502

Re: NJ state pension

Governments have tried to cut pension benefits and were prevented from doing that by the courts in some cases. "In some cases?" Have there been any cases in the US in which a state has successfully cut state pension payments (not COLAs) to current retirees? This is in question right now w...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2502

Re: NJ state pension

If this pension cannot met its obligations and the taxpayers are unwilling to pony up then the benefits will be cut. The Original Poster's in-laws should plan on the possibility of their payments being cut in half. Because it is a government pension and there are politics involved, my suspicion is ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 27
Views: 2521

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

I was taking a look at the broker CDs being offered by Fidelity and came across a 10 yr 3.20% non-callable offering. Is there any reason I would not want this over a 10 year Treasury if I was going to make my purchase July 1? Seeing that these will be in tax deferred accounts and that these instrum...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NJ state pension
Replies: 39
Views: 2502

Re: NJ state pension

How underwater is the pension plan? Funding ratio of 54% in 2013. State is putting in 30-35% of its newly agreed upon amount (from a deal in 2010 or 11). So it's in rough shape. At the same time, I wonder about the likelihood of cuts to current retirees; it seems so politically unlikely, yet the st...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 45
Views: 5978

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

I looked back in my records, I first purchased shares in my TIPS fund back in August of 2003. I liked the idea of bonds that paid a fixed rate of interest plus inflation adjustments. When I learned about them, my reaction was cool!!! I came, I saw, I purchased. I wish I could say that I had a system...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 4746

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

Through no effort on our part 2008 adjusted our asset allocation. We are now back to ~60/40 and patiently waiting for the next obligatory adjustment. Yes, I had a very similar experience. I have often joked that if you don't rebalance that the market will do that for you!! My asset allocation went ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1797

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

Oh no! Another "must have" asset class for investors. For an asset class junkie like me this is terrible news! I barely dipped my toe in International Real Estate and now I will be tempted to add Emerging Market Debt. I own the Templeton Global Bond Fund in a workplace savings plan and thi...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2996

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

A simpler analysis would just look at peak earning age demographics in the US versus overall economic growth rate. If I recall, Bill McBride has done a fair bit of that---it predicted a 'headwind' for economic growth from 2005 to 2015 or so, due to the US baby bust 1968 to 1983 (there are far fewer...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2996

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Garland, I own the Templeton Global Bond Fund which has a lot of Emerging Markets debt in it. It is a Morningstar 5 star fund, I own the advisor class through a work place savings plan. It is a small piece of my portfolio but it sure has beaten the pants off an International Bond fund that has conce...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two main drivers of asset class returns – inflation and growth
Replies: 2
Views: 430

Re: Two main drivers of asset class returns – inflation and growth

The problem with "All Weather" portfolios is that you have to tolerate portfolio drag from certain investments that might have very low or negative rates of return for long periods of time. A good example of this is gold. The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has a 25% stake in gold which w...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...
Replies: 12
Views: 2335

Re: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...

There was a lot of discussion about rising rates in 2013. The markets had a bit of a "taper tantrum". Many on this forum were worried about the effect of rising interest rates on their bond funds. I joked about the great Boglehead Bond Panic of 2013. I think a lot of folks are pretty exhau...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 45
Views: 5978

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

My reaction to the article is that most everything is riskier than you think. Quality bonds are relatively safe but might have risks that an investor has not considered. Everything is riskier than we think because we don't know the future and that we don't know everything. My reaction is that there ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side (proposed series)
Replies: 35
Views: 4472

Re: The Other Side (proposed series)

The investors in Japan didn't have it good, but not as bad as perceived here in the United States. A couple things helped Japanese investors, slight deflation and a very strong Yen. There is another thread that discussed this. That being said, I would rather have been an investor in the United State...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 3936

Re: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?

I've been running simulations with http://www.cfiresim.com/ and found some interesting results. When simulating with historical data, 100% equity seems to be the safest strategy. When simulating Monte Carlo, 75% equity 25% bonds seems to be the safest strategy. This implies an equity-dominant alloc...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2996

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

I do recall Harry Dent's books which made predictions based on demographics. His predictions proved to be mostly wrong. I do think that aging populations will be a drag on market returns but it is hard to say how much. Two factors that would depress markets: first retirees are past their peak spendi...

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