Search found 2756 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Why did FSTVX drop in value Friday?

As Benjamin Franklin might have said, there are only three sure things in life: death, taxes, and "Why did my fund drop in Value?" threads during distribution season.
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why did FSTVX drop in value Friday?
Replies: 5
Views: 349

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Momentum droughts are one of the troubling aspects of the momentum strategy. But droughts apply to the other anomalies as well, so are not unique to momentum. As I pointed out above, momentum and value appear to be negatively correlated, so using them together might be beneficial in dealing with dr...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 102
Views: 7793

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

You know, I just don't get this. Razor thin margins. All the reefer madness warnings. What the heck are folks out there buying? NASDAQ Bulletin Board Stocks? Canadian mining companies? Penny stocks? We are all adults here. Stocks are risky. They are risky if owned in an index or individually. With a...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 51
Views: 4058

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

Continuing my journey to becoming a Boglehead, I want to know why you don't invest in individual companies? High risk the only reason? The problem is that most stocks are losers . A chart from this Chase whitepaper: http://i57.tinypic.com/osz5hi.png This is the performance of individual stocks in t...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 51
Views: 4058

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

I personally agree with most of the general philosophy in this forum, except that is has to be funds, where I (respectfull) disagree with most but not all members in this forum. It has been shown mathematically that only a relatively small number of representative securities together have (asymptot...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 51
Views: 4058

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

I do follow it. Although it's something less than the 10% bond allocation, and closer to the allocation suggested by the question/response he gave to author/blogger Tim Ferriss at the 2008 BRK Meeting: “If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time inve...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8048

Re: My thoughts.

So oil prices are dropping due to an oil oversupply and the stock market is going down, seemingly because of this. But if oil prices were surging upwards due to a shortage, I bet the stock market would also be going down because of forecasts of the dire economic impact of this. So this is typical o...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts.
Replies: 13
Views: 1567

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

When the stock markets are going up, it would seem to me that rebalancing would reduce risk as you are selling more volatile, risky stocks to buy less volatile and less risky bonds. You would expect to sacrifice a bit of return to keep volatility a bit in check. When stock markets are going down, r...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4554

Re: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments

I have considered Alternative Retirement Investments not to enhance return but to act as portfolio insurance. I have considered things like Natural Resources Funds, Precious Metals Mining funds, and gold and silver themselves. I also have looked at commodities after reading Larry Swedroe's comments....
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments
Replies: 9
Views: 1136

Re: Energy sector

It would seem that just plowing into energy stocks when prices are down would seem to be a "no-brainer." But I advised those interested in such a strategy to nibble and add to their positions over time. Why am I so cautious? First, bottoms are very hard to call. We don't know what a market...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4184

Re: Investing more when the market is down.

I think this is a premature discussion. Weren't we at market highs on Thursday? The market falls 300 points on Friday and we are talking about a down market. We are down maybe 2% from the market high. So far, this is just a blip on the radar. If the market did go down substantially, investing more t...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing more when the market is down.
Replies: 22
Views: 2285

Re: Energy sector

Oil stocks are not plays on the oil price. They are *leveraged* plays on the oil price. An oil company is a huge semi-fixed cost, with revenues mostly dependent upon the price of oil. Beware that. FT today says junk debt in the energy sector now forecast to have a 14% default rate (2 different plac...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4184

Re: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?

With oil dropping the way it is and all the uncertainty and fears surrounding the european markets and the end of QE..think a crash is pending? As I recall, RISING OIL PRICES were a big cause of the 1973-74 bear market. It is always something. Rising oil prices. Oops, now it is the risk of falling ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5670

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Gatorman, all I was doing was showing a couple real-life examples of a company using a momentum strategy. I actually have owned earnings acceleration and price momentum funds from this company. I got disappointed in their large cap growth funds so I shifted to their mid-cap and small-cap funds that ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 102
Views: 7793

Re: [Merriman] Why Vanguard Total Stock Market isn’t the bes

If you want to do a simple indexing strategy, the US Total Stock Market and the Total International Stock Market Funds would be the best. Vanguard of course has such funds and the Fidelity Spartan Funds are also a very fine alternative. If you pick an International Index fund, make sure it contains ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 155
Views: 17758

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

A few observations here. When the stock markets are going up, it would seem to me that rebalancing would reduce risk as you are selling more volatile, risky stocks to buy less volatile and less risky bonds. You would expect to sacrifice a bit of return to keep volatility a bit in check. When stock m...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4554

Re: [Merriman] Why Vanguard Total Stock Market isn’t the bes

Nisiprius, I will take a stab at answering your question. A total US Stock Market portfolio is still dominated by the very large mega-caps. The top 100 holdings are a tiny bit over 50% of the market weight of the whole index. So a Total Market Index holds over 3,300 stocks but the performance is lar...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 155
Views: 17758

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Here is another fund from the same company. It had a rough performance patch and I sold it just before it started a long run of outperforming the S&P 500. This fund was started in 1959 and has had the same team running it for many years. This fund follows an earnings acceleration approach first ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 102
Views: 7793

Re: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom

My bond investments sailed through the 2008-2009 crisis because I own the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, GNMA funds, and core bond funds which hold investment grade intermediate term bonds. My core bond funds have investments in treasuries. So someone who was broadly diversified in good bond fund...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom
Replies: 85
Views: 16411

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

http://i61.tinypic.com/sxm655.png Here is a particular mutual fund that I have been aware of for several years. The manager is a former B-2 Bomber pilot who has excellent quant skills and he is backed up by quant analysts and powerful computers. The fund is designed to capture price momentum first ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 102
Views: 7793

Re: The dream of a perfect plan.

Is now DEC 2014 a good time to invest in a Reit Index Fund such as Vanguard Reit Index fund VGSTX? Or, is it at such a high it will likely just drop in the next years? Riptide: This is a post you made last month: After all the back and forth, I am still at a simple portfolio 4 core and my goal is t...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1783

Re: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?

Is now DEC 2014 a good time to invest in a Reit Index Fund such as Vanguard Reit Index fund VGSTX? Or, is it at such a high it will likely just drop in the next years? Hi Riptide, I have loved REITs for years, have owned them, and still own them. Traditionally, these have yielded 6-8% in dividends ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1783

Re: Energy sector

Oil has gone from 110+ down to 65 in a few months. Is it time to overweight the energy sector? I can think of a lot dumber things people can do with their money. The problem is that the price of oil and other commodities could go down a lot more. But I like the fact you are thinking things through ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4184

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Oil’s stunning price collapse is undoubtedly one of 2014’s top stories and will remain a major theme for investors in 2015. Indeed, oil futures CLF5, +0.87% have plunged 38% from the beginning of the year, including carnage in Wednesday trading that saw oil trade in the $60...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 87
Views: 7609

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I tilt to small, value, and REIT. I think the evidence supports it over the long run. Whether it works out for me depends on my start and end dates, but unlike someone cherry picking the data, I Can't use hindsight. It may work or it may not. Any of us could be in the cohort with start/end dates wh...
by nedsaid
Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8325

Re: Just found old small IRA! Are we in Backdoor trouble?

If your old IRA was non-deductible, no problem. Just convert that to a ROTH as well. If it was deductible, you will owe a tiny bit of tax and might need to amend prior year returns. Edit: seeing this was in a money market, you have probably almost zero earnings. Consult your IRS form 8606, Roth conv...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just found old small IRA! Are we in Backdoor trouble?
Replies: 8
Views: 858

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

I am doing well to just be in Emerging Markets much less Emerging Markets Value. I suppose I am an asset class collector but even a slicer and dicer like me has limits. You can only cut the pizza in so many slices before you have a situation where any one slice will make no meaningful difference in ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2114

Re: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?

For the record, Vanguard's publicly stated reason for the change in 2006 is that they originally expected target-date funds to attract investors who were more risk-averse than the average investor, and therefore they accordingly pegged the funds to a conservative allocation... and that with several...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?
Replies: 39
Views: 2696

Re: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?

I am 55 years old and thought I was hanging way out there in terms of risk with an approximately 70% stock and a 30% bond portfolio. Imagine my surprise when I checked out the Vanguard 2025 fund and found they had just about the same asset allocation as I had!! The question could be asked, why is a ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?
Replies: 39
Views: 2696

Re: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard

This goes to show why I don't believe in either/or financial solutions. The Bogleheads forum and Vanguard are mostly built on the "do-it-yourself" and keep costs rock-bottom through indexing philosophy. I somewhat agree on the first point and mostly agree on the second. The problem is that...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 1646

Re: Did you parents and your childhood effect the way you ha

Absolutely parents and one's childhood affect attitudes towards money. Family members got together for dinner the weekend after Thanksgiving and remembered the things mom did to stretch the food dollar. Some of the memories were a little yucky. Money was definitely tight. My parents were frugal. I h...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did your parents/childhood affect the way you handle money?
Replies: 29
Views: 2052

Re: Pension Lump vs Annuity?

I know each case is different ...but looking for some feedback on taking a monthly annunity instead of of a lump. My thinking is to avoid the sequence of returns risk during the first 7-10 years of retirement. By taking the annunity combined with SS at 62 (health concerns) 85% of my expenses will b...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Lump vs Annuity?
Replies: 14
Views: 1371

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

You could make Mr. Bogle's argument in reverse. There are plenty of foreign companies that do business here in the United States. Let's see: Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Siemens, Daimler-Benz, Nestle, etc. Why bother investing here in the United States? You get all the American exposure you need by inves...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11268

Re: Any great YouTube clips (about investing)?

Wow. I watched Larry Swedroe for an hour and a half. A good video and a good review of many things I already knew.
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any great YouTube clips (about investing)?
Replies: 9
Views: 1189

Re: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom

I can't seem to find the time to read this book. Like I said in a previous post I have been jumping around. Maybe due to that fact, I find it confusing that in what part of the book he is talking about how Warren Buffett is saying bonds should come with a warning label and during the 2008 crisis bo...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom
Replies: 85
Views: 16411

Re: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom

I did read through the part of the book about his interview with Ray Dalio and the "All-Weather Portfolio." I read the parts about the good returns and the limited volatility. I was convinced, I was ready. In Tony's words, I was ready to take massive action. I was salivating. "Okay, T...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom
Replies: 85
Views: 16411

Re: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom

I did buy Tony Robbins new book on Financial Freedom. I leafed through it last night and I came to some conclusions about the book. His book seems to be built on a few core ideas. 1) Bucketize your money into a safety bucket, a growth bucket, and a dreams bucket. (Sounds a bit like Ray Lucia). 2) Co...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom
Replies: 85
Views: 16411

Re: Renewable/Alternative Energy Investing?

Don't do this. I and a couple of family members got excited about this sector and got burned. I limited these investments to maybe 2% of my retirement portfolio so my losses were more of a nuisance than anything. There are a lot of folks who tell a great story and many fewer who can actually perform...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Renewable/Alternative Energy Investing?
Replies: 7
Views: 591

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

. Garlandwhizzer, At the end of the day, it comes down to belief - what each investor believes. Staying the course is what matters. Belief is needed to stay the course. If you don't believe the value premium will exist in the future, just hold the market portfolio. No problem. There can be long per...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 19631

Re: The Whole Ball Game Of Equity Investing As I See It

The question is how do you de-risk your portfolio today with bonds so darn high? Bogel says to go to 50% or so of top quality corporates along with 50% total bond market index fund. That`s an idea but is it the answer? I don`t know. Stocks are high, bonds are high and cash loses purchasing power an...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Whole Ball Game Of Equity Investing As I See It
Replies: 33
Views: 4476

Re: A rational allocation in individual stocks?

You also want the average holding period of your stocks to exceed five years. You need an absolute minimum of five stocks diversified across five industries but the optimal size of an individual stock portfolio is 15-25 names. 30 at the very most. The reason being is that you only have so much time...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A rational allocation in individual stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 1306

Re: help with portfolio review

Remember, you can't tap the I-Bonds for a year. But after that, this isn't a bad place for emergency money. Do some research on Treasury Direct. The online banks offer better interest rates than brick and mortar banks. You might research this as well. Another alternative might be short term bond fun...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help with portfolio review
Replies: 8
Views: 530

Re: help with portfolio review

The other comment I would make is to use US Total Market Funds where available instead of the S&P 500 index funds. Or couple the S&P 500 fund with an Extended Market Index. The point is you don't want to overlook the small-cap and mid-cap areas of the market.
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help with portfolio review
Replies: 8
Views: 530

Re: help with portfolio review

Hello, it has been a while since I asked for advice on Boglehead. My earlier question can be found in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=93467. I sincerely appreciated the responses from the users. My current investment accounts include traditional 401k, roth 401k, and multiple...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help with portfolio review
Replies: 8
Views: 530

Re: Next generation of mutual funds

All kidding aside, I think that the technology is such that personalized mutual funds in the future are possible. You tell the robo-advisor what screens you want to use and what factors to load and the investment firm could create a customized mutual fund. Computers are powerful enough now to do thi...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next generation of mutual funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2296

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

In my foggy memory banks, I recall someone posted that the outperformance of certain anomalies in the market declines in direct proportion to the number of academic papers on the subject. This might be the effect that Garland is observing. I also want to point out that Value really got hammered in t...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 19631

Re: Next generation of mutual funds

I think the "next generation" is going to be investors holding the hundreds of individual stocks in an index directly instead of through a mutual fund. This will be made possible by improved automated portfolio management and lower trading fees. Motifs and Wealthfront Tax-Optimized US ind...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next generation of mutual funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2296

Re: A rational allocation in individual stocks?

My advice would be to stick to index funds, ETFs and diversified mutual funds. Maintaining a portfolio of individual stocks is fun but takes time and research. Your individual stocks will likely not outperform the broad stock market indexes. One reason to own individual stocks is to create a build y...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A rational allocation in individual stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 1306

Re: Tim Horton shareholder - what to do about Burger King Me

I took the shares mainly to avoid a taxable event, especially since my cost basis is close to zero. The consideration on one hand is would I be able to invest the cash proceeds with a higher compound growth rate than the Burger King shares. On the other hand, by taking the shares I get tax-free gro...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tim Horton shareholder - what to do about Burger King Merger
Replies: 14
Views: 2059

Re: The Whole Ball Game Of Equity Investing As I See It

Garland, Thanks for your comments. You learn an awful lot just by holding investments and watching how they act in different market situations. I started investing in 1984, so I have been at it for 30 years. The reason I might sound smart is that I have tried a lot of things, owned a lot of things, ...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Whole Ball Game Of Equity Investing As I See It
Replies: 33
Views: 4476
Next

Return to advanced search