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Re: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and ra

Riptide, I am nervous too but I do my level best not to let my emotions dictate my investing decisions. Doggone it, I am human too and experience all the same emotions you do. It helps to view down markets as buying opportunities, that has really helped me deal with down markets. This is also why I ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and rate
Replies: 37
Views: 2478

Re: CNN: 5 investing secrets of the wealthy.

The problem with these type of articles is that we assume all wealthy people are great investors. You might be a Powerball winner. Or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who as I recall had big losses with an investment advisor. Or the Hunt brothers trying to corner the silver market. Wealthy people often don't ge...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNN: 5 investing secrets of the wealthy.
Replies: 19
Views: 2906

Re: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and ra

I haven't gone to 40% yet, I am at 30%, but get nervous when the market goes down everyday. In studying the tsp it appears it is much better to invest in the F fund than G for returns. I looked at the last 10 years for all the funds and G return is pitiful. F is pretty level with G and better retur...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and rate
Replies: 37
Views: 2478

Re: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John

I agree that investors should take into account extremes in market valuations and market sentiments. But I advocate that any market timing be done rarely and at the margins. I sure wouldn't put mechanical rules in my Investment Policy Statement saying, "if the market does X, I will do Y." ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 29
Views: 1457

Re: Considering slice and dice -- need help choosing funds

What is important is the actual mix of small vs. large and value vs. growth in a portfolio rather than the funds themselves. I picked the Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF to help give me a small/value tilt. Here is the stylebox as of now: 0 - 0 - 0 19-15-05 31-21-08 About 60% Small Cap and 40% Mid Cap. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering slice and dice -- need help choosing funds
Replies: 18
Views: 536

Re: Active Manager Marketing Quote of the Day

I think Taylor has asked Packer16 a fair question. What I will do is post my own investment results and how I did it. This is only fair. I don't think my results are particularly outstanding but not bad. I have my transaction data in Quicken and I have used Quicken to calculate my investment returns...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 28, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Manager Marketing Quote of the Day
Replies: 25
Views: 3157

Re: Individual stocks in 401k brokerage exceed 5% of total

This is one of the problems with stock picking, the stocks most people pick are from the popular and well known large caps. I have 15 stocks in a Brokerage IRA that are about 15% of my retirement. Most of them are well-known large cap stocks. Since I own broad index funds and also stock mutual funds...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks in 401k brokerage exceed 5% of total
Replies: 8
Views: 521

Re: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stoc

Michael, I own both ETFs and Index Funds. If I had to choose between the two, I would pick the Index Funds because there are no commissions to buy or sell and there are no issues with reinvestment of dividends. But both are excellent ways to invest. As far as the stocks you have bought, they are a s...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 28, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stocks]
Replies: 34
Views: 1110

Re: Read too many books... help untangle

All good input and I think the problem I am running into is the "belief" portion. So I am right. This is somewhat religious as I am afraid this is a bit of a soft science. You have hit the nail on the head here. Investing is a bit of a soft science because it involves human nature and hum...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 28, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Read too many books... help untangle
Replies: 35
Views: 2411

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

I feel like the model in the famous painting "Silent Scream." Oh no, not another thread on rebalancing. Perhaps reading the various threads on rebalancing would be enough torture to make the most hardened terrorist confess to everything. I went from defending my rather relaxed attitude to...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 28, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 81
Views: 4351

Re: Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard

Oh man, I finished my small waves of mild rebalancing from stocks to bonds which I executed from July 2013 to June 2014. Last month, I probably anticipated the guilt I would feel from Livesoft's post and did some mild growth to value rebalancing. But probably not enough. You mean that I MUST do more...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 1928

Re: Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard

In fairness to Paul Merriman, he has said that a pure Index portfolio of Vanguard Index funds would outperform DFA Funds during times when growth does better than value. He expects value to do better than growth more often than not so he expects small and value tilts to do better over time than the ...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 1928

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

I feel like the model in the famous painting "Silent Scream." Oh no, not another thread on rebalancing. Perhaps reading the various threads on rebalancing would be enough torture to make the most hardened terrorist confess to everything. I went from defending my rather relaxed attitude tow...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 81
Views: 4351

Re: Read too many books... help untangle

In my previous post, I talked about developing an investment philosophy. That is a statement of your beliefs about investments, the markets, and the economy. A set of deeply held core beliefs. It boils down to that I believe in human progress and the advancement of civilization over time. That econo...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Read too many books... help untangle
Replies: 35
Views: 2411

Re: Read too many books... help untangle

You have stumbled on one of the most frustrating things for an investor to experience. Contrary opinions, conflicting data, and paradoxes. Below I will repost from a couple of my prior posts and you might find this helpful: This is why we all need to put on our philosopher's hat and put down on pape...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 27, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Read too many books... help untangle
Replies: 35
Views: 2411

Re: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell

I have a large holding in an Intermediate Term Bond Fund that is managed by a team of investment managers. Its performance has been pretty good, very comparable to the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, maybe beating it a little. It has been a very steady fund and one thing that gives my confidence i...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Total Return - Keep or Sell
Replies: 28
Views: 2229

Re: a look at technical indicators

I believe that technical analysis has some value. It can tell you what happened in the market and maybe why it happened but it can't tell what will happen in the future or just when it will happen. It is more confirmation of what you are seeing out there or perhaps confirmation of a trend. Things li...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at technical indicators
Replies: 16
Views: 1275

Re: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stoc

Michael, the reason that I tell people to diversify across industry groups is to decrease the odds that you will do yourself very much damage. If you do your homework, diversify across industry groups, and at least not overpay for your stocks; you should be "in the neighborhood" of the bro...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stocks]
Replies: 34
Views: 1110

Re: "Market timing is for the birds"

Generally I agree that investors should not try to time the market. A good asset allocation and rebalancing when needed should take care of an investor's "need" to market time because rebalancing forces you to sell asset classes that have recently done well to buy other asset classes that ...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Market timing is for the birds"
Replies: 2
Views: 741

Re: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stoc

Michael, if the bulk of your investments are in "core" stock and bond investments (index funds are great "core' investments) there is nothing wrong with taking a flyer. Since you work in the Bio-Tech industry, you probably have good insights into what might be good investments within ...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stocks]
Replies: 34
Views: 1110

Re: Even institutions are performance chasers, and the impac

Nedsaid No individuals don't adhere to their investment plans as well as do institutions who are generally much better at rebalancing for example and not panicked selling either. Now they still make behavioral errors and other mistakes too, but better than individuals Larry Larry, I agree with your...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even institutions are performance chasers, and the impact
Replies: 7
Views: 755

Re: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stoc

I do invest in individual stocks. I own 15 in a brokerage IRA and another 4 in DRIP plans. My enthusiasm for stock picking has waned over the years. In early 2000, individual stocks were 45% of my retirement portfolio and now they are about 15%. I like the wider diversification of mutual stock funds...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Investing Question [Investing in Individual stocks]
Replies: 34
Views: 1110

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Browser, pretty much what you said was that you don't want to pay the premiums for portfolio insurance. The cost of the insurance (somewhat reduced performance) wasn't worth the benefit of reduced volatility. This is the judgment I have made for myself and I own neither gold or commodities. If I wan...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4020

Re: Even institutions are performance chasers, and the impac

Alas, the Institutional investors are human too. As much as the small investor is criticized, sometimes the small investor behaves better (not panicking) better than the institutional players. The "smart" money isn't always so smart.
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Even institutions are performance chasers, and the impact
Replies: 7
Views: 755

Re: About to Retire, Need Help!

Bluejello, your "spurious" example is along the right way of thinking. Convert while you are in a lower tax bracket because higher required minimum distributions as you get older might push you into a higher tax bracket. I don't know if this actually happens very often but it shows the thi...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to Retire, Need Help!
Replies: 25
Views: 2953

Re: Why don't you do Financial Planning?

I would actually be an excellent financial planner. I have the interest and the passion. The reason I am not doing this is the realities of the financial business. Most of these jobs are actually sales jobs selling commissioned products. The reality is that generating a sufficient clientele is very ...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why don't you do Financial Planning?
Replies: 41
Views: 3213

Re: About to Retire, Need Help!

Bluejello, I am not telling you to buy an annuity but to consider one. What you want to consider is a single premium immediate annuity. You surrender a lump of cash to an insurance company in return for monthly payments for the rest of your lives. You can go to http://www.immediateannuity.com to giv...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to Retire, Need Help!
Replies: 25
Views: 2953

Re: About to Retire, Need Help!

I think your parents are in good shape financially. A 3% withdrawal rate would be $24,000 withdrawn each year so that should cover very easily the $1,000 gap in living expenses. Another possible solution would be to annuitize about $200K which would also produce more than the $1,000 extra needed a m...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to Retire, Need Help!
Replies: 25
Views: 2953

Re: Trusting our advisor?

PattyK, I have read through the thread and I have some thoughts on your situation. First, there Is no right or wrong about asset allocation. I am 55 years old and I am not at approximately 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash. I have chosen a more aggressive allocation mainly because of the very low le...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trusting our advisor?
Replies: 25
Views: 1882

Re: The Case Against Mid Caps? (Say it ain't so!)

A mid-cap growth fund that I have invested in for over 20 years has a 10 year performance record of 13.43% versus 9.73% for its small cap growth fund. The 3 and 5 year records are very similar. The large cap growth fund had a 8.84% record over 10 years. I am invested in the mid-cap growth fund and t...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against Mid Caps? (Say it ain't so!)
Replies: 23
Views: 2590

Re: Higher Dividend Three Fund Portfolio Idea

I think your idea is actually a pretty good one. I would wait and this is why: low interest rates are not a secret, everyone knows that rates are very low. Investors have piled into higher yielding investments like higher dividend stocks, REITs, junk bonds, utility stocks, etc. When rates do go up ...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Higher Dividend Three Fund Portfolio Idea
Replies: 15
Views: 1640

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

Valuethinker, it is interesting to get your perspective from across the pond. Your mentions of Eisenhower and Bush I were very interesting to me. I have long felt that both were very underrated as Presidents. I will agree that FDR should rank as one of our greatest Presidents. His administration bui...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 99
Views: 7796

Re: The Oracle of Buffalo....very nice article

It was a very good article. It is evidence that stock picking CAN work or at least work well enough. The only way to know how she did versus the market would be to go through her statements and do the calculations. She is a good investor and I think that hard work and frugality had a lot to do with ...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Oracle of Buffalo....very nice article
Replies: 7
Views: 1151

Re: Vanguard SV/SG funds vs. CRSP indexes

I believe in indexing and I believe in small value tilting but as one can see both "indexing" and "value" are in the eye of the beholder. If an index fund keeps switching the index that it tracks, is it really indexey? And of course I have read good threads that question how valu...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard SV/SG funds vs. CRSP indexes
Replies: 7
Views: 646

Re: Why is there no mutual fund that truly behaves like rent

Rental properties owned individually can be a terrific investment. In-laws of a family member did very well in both residential and commercial real estate. They did very well because they bought a lot of their properties when real estate was down in the early 1980's, they were very handy with tools,...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there no mutual fund that truly behaves like rental?
Replies: 36
Views: 2469

Re: Higher Dividend Three Fund Portfolio Idea

I think your idea is actually a pretty good one. I would wait and this is why: low interest rates are not a secret, everyone knows that rates are very low. Investors have piled into higher yielding investments like higher dividend stocks, REITs, junk bonds, utility stocks, etc. When rates do go up y...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Higher Dividend Three Fund Portfolio Idea
Replies: 15
Views: 1640

Re: Why is there no mutual fund that truly behaves like rent

You could arrange for your fund company to call you at three in the morning to tell you that the toilet is plugged up.
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is there no mutual fund that truly behaves like rental?
Replies: 36
Views: 2469

Re: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and ra

Riptide, I got sleepy just looking at your portfolio. It is simple, cheap and tilted towards small value and emerging markets. I liked REITs for years but am now less enthusiastic about them. A very boring portfolio. You know what I say, boring is good, boring that pays a dividend is even better. I ...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and rate
Replies: 37
Views: 2478

Re: The Case Against Mid Caps? (Say it ain't so!)

It ain't so. My experience has been that over time that mid-caps give you a degree of outperformance compared to large-caps. A bit milder small-cap effect. The Wall Street Journal ran a column of the darts vs. investment managers. Hint: the darts usually won. A bit over 50% of the US Total Market ca...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against Mid Caps? (Say it ain't so!)
Replies: 23
Views: 2590

Re: Inflation Bonds - Staying the Course?

I have kept my Inflation Bond Funds and have no plans to change course. Perhaps, I am like the World War II French Generals who relied on WWI tactics and the Maginot Line to defend against the Germans. Instead of trench warfare, they got Panzer divisions and were overrun in a matter of weeks. My por...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Bonds - Staying the Course?
Replies: 43
Views: 3137

Re: Do you plan trips on your own or use a [travel agent]?

I have both used travel agents and planned my own trips. When I took my first trip to Europe, I used a travel agent to book a bus tour. I wanted some practical advice as this was my first trip there. The next year, I booked a trip through a discount website but used the travel agent to book the day ...
by nedsaid
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you plan trips on your own or use a [travel agent]?
Replies: 36
Views: 1537

Re: Jack Bogle on "Advisers"

Bogleheads: It is instructive to read what Mr. Bogle wrote about advisers in Common Sense on Mutual Funds. This is a portion: Consider Carefully the Added Costs of Advice: Tens of millions of investors need personal guidance in allocating their assets and selecting funds. Other tens of millions do ...
by nedsaid
Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much value can an advisor add for the average investor?
Replies: 71
Views: 4726

Re: How much value can an advisor add for the average invest

People on this forum are very comfortable with investing and can be a little bit removed from how someone with no experience or interest in it can feel. One example of this was in 1987 when the market crashed going down 22% in one day!! The reality was that I was 28 years old and I lost hundreds of...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much value can an advisor add for the average investor?
Replies: 71
Views: 4726

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

Wow. I'm a bit taken back by the shift in this thread. It started out being sarcastic and dismissive about anything other than constant-mix portfolio rebalancing, highlighting a few extreme points taken out of context from the article. Then we started bashing rebalancing... rebalancing isn't necess...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14004

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

This thread illustrates my dislike for mechanical investing strategies or statements in an Investment Policy Statement that say if X happens, I will do Y. I don't like the rigidity, I allow for myself a certain amount of flexibility. +1 It's good for investors to have a plan. You don't want to be f...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14004

Re: How much value can an advisor add for the average invest

My mind has changed on some things over the years and this is one of them. I think most people would benefit from working with an investment advisor. I do taxes on the side and have talked to a lot of people. Some folks are squared away and do a good job with their finances. It never ceases to amaze...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much value can an advisor add for the average investor?
Replies: 71
Views: 4726

Re: An Interesting Correlation

Leeraar, you have hit on the old "correlation is not causation" statement. I remember my marketing professor citing a correlation between Minister's salaries and the price of scotch. Nonsensical unless you believe that men of the cloth drink lots of scotch. Or that there are enough of the...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 2059

Re: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum

You have an old article. There is also now a Quality premium. Larry has also written about an illiquidity premium as well. So we are up to six now.
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum
Replies: 40
Views: 2833

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

This is what I love so much about this forum. A year and a half ago I was in another rebalancing thread and defended my rather relaxed attitude about rebalancing. I got battered and bruised pretty good and decided it might be a good idea to do some rebalancing. So from July 2013 into 2014, I did som...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14004

Re: An Interesting Correlation

Leeraar, you have hit on the old "correlation is not causation" statement. I remember my marketing professor citing a correlation between Minister's salaries and the price of scotch. Nonsensical unless you believe that men of the cloth drink lots of scotch. Or that there are enough of them...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 2059
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