Search found 3999 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?
Replies: 79
Views: 8362

Re: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?

so for another new investor reading this, i am just started up my actual investments, and will be contributing more to it in the future. I could totally see how this would make many jittery, i have very little invested so its a exercise in learning for me mostly this year. Trying to get comfortable...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 46
Views: 1889

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

No, that's not quite what Mr. Asness is saying. What I read between the lines is this: most of the factors have a behavioral component and a risk component. Before everyone knows about it, you get both; after everyone knows about it, you get only the risk component. Think about the biggest factor o...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 9
Views: 1230

Re: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel

I like Jeremy Siegel and I like his optimism. I am also pleased that he likes dividends. While I don't believe US Stocks are cheap, I don't believe they are expensive either. When you are in a bull market, quite often stocks look expensive. This is why I chuckle whenever I read articles about "...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof
Replies: 16
Views: 2233

Re: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof

Dogs of the Dow? Small dogs of the Dow? I hadn't heard about the small dogs.

Who let the dogs out? Woof! Woof! Woof! Who let the dogs out? Woof! Woof! Woof!
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 46
Views: 1889

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

How can a strategy still work if everyone knows about it? Simple. Human nature. "Buy low and sell high" is known by everyone who is even faintly aware of the stock market. It is the oldest and best known strategy out there but it is amazing that many investors don't practice this. Instead ...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 40
Views: 3781

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

Gordon, thank you for posting this. This is telling me to start putting money to work in Emerging Markets bit by bit. A couple of things that I look at when deciding where to allocate new money are valuations and money flows. Money flows are often a good contrary indicator as investors tend to sell ...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?
Replies: 79
Views: 8362

Re: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?

Because I did not do anything in the last crazy week, my Asset Allocation went to 65/35 , 65 % equities and 35% bonds, the allocation changed 2% and I left it alone. If you forget to rebalance, the market will do it for you! :happy This was a lesson learned the hard way in 2008-2009. I am glad that...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 30, 2015 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3128

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

Afan, I bought my first REIT fund in January 2008. I was happily ignorant of all the arguments that the slicers and dicers make in favor of these instruments. It was a way to further diversify my portfolio and it seemed like a good idea at the time. Ditto for TIPS, I bought those back in 2003. Bonds...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 30, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the Fed announces rate hike Sept 16-17, then . . . .
Replies: 13
Views: 1777

Re: If the Fed announces rate hike Sept 16-17, then . . . .

My best guess is that the hike will be 0.25%, the Fed normally hikes in quarter point increments. The effect on the broader bond market might be zero. The Fed can only control short term rates, the market sets the longer term rates. Again my best guess is that bonds will drop a little bit. To me the...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 30, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3128

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

They don't correlate? I guess this begs the question of what exactly is meant by "not correlating". To me, I want something that does not drop like a rock when the stock market drops like a rock. Quality bonds of course are the gold standard for that sort of lack-of-correlation. Does VNQ ...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: slice 'n dice- achieving low correlation /w Vanguard equity/REIT ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 768

Re: slice 'n dice- achieving low correlation /w Vanguard equity/REIT ETFs

You will find that correlations among asset classes change all the time. Is it possible that in this era of index funds and ETFs that equity asset classes across caps and investment factors (value vs growth) will be more correlated? Is there anything inherently wrong with relying on sector and int'...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8049

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Your focus is too short term. US Stocks beat the pants off of International Stocks during the 1990's, in part because the Japanese bear market weighed down the International indexes. The 2000's favored International Stocks over US.
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?
Replies: 81
Views: 7349

Re: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?

A couple things that have helped me with stock selection. One is that I give my individual stock portfolio a regional flavor, I like to buy stocks that are headquartered in or have a substantial presence in my geographical area. Second, in recent years have had 3-4 small-cap stocks in my individual ...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads' Silent Majority
Replies: 189
Views: 20627

Re: The Bogleheads' Silent Majority

This has been a fun thread as it is good to hear from people who rarely post. I too lurked here for a couple of years before starting to post. Glad to know that people read what is here.
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Having fun on CNBC Halftime Report today
Replies: 9
Views: 1383

Re: Having fun on CNBC Halftime Report today

Rick, I agree with your call on Intermediate-Term Bonds. I stayed with them despite advice from two sources to the contrary. Unlike a lot of investors who fled to short term bonds or even cash, I did not leave a lot of interest payments on the table. I also think the Fed should gradually start raisi...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3128

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

REITs are the one tilt that's talked about here a lot that makes no sense to me. Remember, they are already a part of your total market index fund. So, the question isn't whether you should hold REITs, but but whether you should hold more REITs than a market allocation would dictate. I'm not aware ...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aug 2015 correction: what Bogleheads did...
Replies: 109
Views: 5448

Re: Aug 2015 correction: what Bogleheads did...

I didn't do anything during the August 2015 correction. When I checked my accounts the last couple of days, I was very happy to find that my losses were about 4%. Not bad. I am putting 401k money 60% into stocks and 40% into bonds as I have for years. In my IRA, I put money into an International Bon...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Priorities
Replies: 16
Views: 1782

Re: Investing Priorities

My opinion is probably a minority opinion here but build up your emergency fund. Six months is probably more than adequate but I think it should be more like one year of living expenses. It is amazing the things that can happen in family life and having readily available cash to handle emergencies c...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3128

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

I still own my REITs. They still offer a diversification benefit as often they are not correlated to the broad US Stock Market. These have become popular investments particularly because of all the yield chasing in the wake of very low interest rates on bonds. The track record of REITs as compared t...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?
Replies: 81
Views: 7349

Re: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?

If my individual stocks consistently performed the broad market, I would still be at the Library pouring over ValueLine, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, and other financial publications finding bargain stocks to purchase. My interest in doing all of this crashed along with the stock market in 200...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone use a different target retirement year then when they will retire???
Replies: 18
Views: 1250

Re: Anyone use a different target retirement year then when they will retire???

Yes, it is a bit discouraging when the people who tell us to stay the course don't stay the course themselves. Changing allocations to stocks and glidepaths show that the Target Date Fund sponsors are human also. I do own the Fidelity Freedom Funds 2025 Fund Class K. Not a bad fund and I have been s...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?
Replies: 81
Views: 7349

Re: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?

I am no longer a stock picker but I have good friends who are and their portfolios have beat the pants off mine the last 10-15 years. I keep saying to them that they can't win, it will all mean revert but it never seems to. Either they know how to pick 'em, or are just lucky. I am not sure it matte...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: slice 'n dice- achieving low correlation /w Vanguard equity/REIT ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 768

Re: slice 'n dice- achieving low correlation /w Vanguard equity/REIT ETFs

Sadly, I am a recovering slice and dicer. I favored small value over small growth and we know the success of that strategy. I believed in low PE's and low PB's. I believed regression to the mean would eventually favor Japanese stocks.............still waiting waiting waiting. I am sick of it all. A...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof
Replies: 16
Views: 2233

Re: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof

I had no idea this was still around and there's yet another incarnation - Small Dogs of the Dow. http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dogyrs.htm it doesn't follow Boglehead theory, but does anybody you know still play with it? after awhile, I thought it fell victim to its own...you know, popularity at the t...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timber Anyone?
Replies: 11
Views: 1325

Re: Timber Anyone?

I have Plum Creek, ticker PCL, in a hypothetical portfolio. PE is high, dividend is good, variety of locations very good. So, at what price is a good entry point ? I own PCL in a real portfolio. I am checking Morningstar right now and see that they have $35/share as fair value. Consider buying at $...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: slice 'n dice- achieving low correlation /w Vanguard equity/REIT ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 768

Re: slice 'n dice- achieving low correlation /w Vanguard equity/REIT ETFs

The sad fact of investing life is that diversifying across sub-asset classes to achieve higher return with lower volatility sometimes works and sometimes doesn't. You will find that correlations among asset classes change all the time. The academic research suggests that "slice and dice" w...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 2200

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

Maynard, you hit on an excellent point. Buffett indeed did add a quality component to his investment methodology. He was influenced by his partner Charlie Munger who said that it was better to buy a great business at a good price than a good business at a great price. This is why I say that Buffett ...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timber Anyone?
Replies: 11
Views: 1325

Re: Timber Anyone?

I own a couple of Timber REITs, one of which I have owned since 1989. It has probably been the very best investment I ever made. The other Timber REIT also has done fairly well. I am glad to have owned them. That being said, Timber is a well known story now. Wealthy individuals and endowments have k...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't the 3 fund portfolio have TIPS?
Replies: 38
Views: 2704

Re: Why doesn't the 3 fund portfolio have TIPS?

BobK wrote: Further, in LCF there is a strategy for reaching your retirement goals, something that is noticeably lacking in the conventional three fund approach. There are other things lacking in the 3 fund approach relative to the LCF strategy which involves annuities. Large commissions for the LC...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)
Replies: 16
Views: 1174

Re: Plunge Protection Team (PPT)

I can imagine a James Bond type of movie in which a market crisis occurs and secret members of the PPT get phone calls. They drop everything they are doing and all meet at a secret location. Maybe like the Avengers. It does have a ring of silliness to it.
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?
Replies: 79
Views: 8362

Re: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?

I too am looking to go to a 60% stock/40% bonds and cash allocation but I will wait for new market highs to do it. Aw come on Ned. You've been here long enough to understand that you can not know when the "new market highs" will come around. Market timing is generally a losing hand. If yo...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations
Replies: 13
Views: 762

Re: Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations

At best, using market valuations to manage sequence of return risk is a very imperfect tool. Bull markets can happen in expensive (high P/E) markets and bear markets can happen in cheap (low P/E) markets. We do know however that future expected returns are higher for cheap markets than for expensive...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Worried About The Stock Market? Whatever You Do, Don't Sell"
Replies: 3
Views: 932

Re: "Worried About The Stock Market? Whatever You Do, Don't Sell"

Yep. When in doubt as an investor, the best thing to do is nothing. That is if you have a widely diversified stock and bond portfolio. Taylor's three fund portfolio is a very good one.
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?
Replies: 79
Views: 8362

Re: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?

Thank you all. It's tough for me to see the market going down every day, and I feel stocks have reached their peaks. However; after the suggestions here; I have decided to hold what I have. This is very tough for me, but I do not want to lock in my losses. After the stocks go back up in the future ...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: How to handle the market's wild ride
Replies: 16
Views: 1715

Re: Jack Bogle: How to handle the market's wild ride

I finally got up the courage to look at my portfolio last night. I am just looking at it again right now. From the peak, my portfolio is down a bit less than 4% from its peak. I have no plans to jump off my back deck. I live in a two story townhouse, so I might sprain my ankle. But I am gratified th...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good news for Really Bad Days
Replies: 4
Views: 743

Re: Good news for Really Bad Days?

backpacker wrote:I think that particular cat is already out of the bag. :wink:


I think AQR is offering a "Rebalance on the Really Bad Days" Fund. Larry Swedroe will be coming out with a four-part series on the subject.
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends
Replies: 157
Views: 15552

Re: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends

Would VTI + VXUS in a taxable account be a decent dividend/growth combination? VTI yield is around 2% and VXUS is around 3%, so a 50/50 taxable account would yield around 2.5% yearly. Am I missing something? Seems like you get a bit of both. But if dividends are good, why are you settling for 2% wh...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 2200

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

Yes, valuations do affect my asset allocation. The very low interest rates and high valuations of bonds have caused me to be more stock heavy than I otherwise would have been. Returns on bonds over the next 10 years would be 2% to 2 1/2%, and that is nominal return and not real return. Stocks have a...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part 1 of my webinar on the current crisis and how to think about it
Replies: 9
Views: 2086

Re: part 1 of my webinar on the current crisis and how to think about it

Also remember Bogleheads that the Japanese stock market entered a bear market starting in 1989. At that time, Japan was the number two economy in the world. Sound familiar? During the 1990's, the US Stock Market boomed while the Japanese Market tanked. I would not panic over China.
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends
Replies: 157
Views: 15552

Re: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends

LOL!!! LOL!!! LOL!!! I have posted on dividends so many times and almost got hooted out of the forum for saying many of the same things that Mr. Bogle has said. The equivalent of picking a fight in a bar and starting a brawl on this forum is to post that you like dividends. I have seen the fists fl...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did a dumb thing [lump summed into market after sitting on cash for years]
Replies: 111
Views: 13017

Re: Did a dumb thing [lump summed into market after sitting on cash for years]

This week is a textbook example of why I advocate averaging in a lump sum into the market over time rather than all at once. Yes, yes, I know what the academics and their studies say. It is better to put it all in at once but that is not the reality of human psychology. Buyer's remorse is very powe...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your generic all-purpose stock decline news item
Replies: 10
Views: 1501

Re: Your generic all-purpose stock decline news item

When markets are down, there are more sellers than buyers. The price has to drop enough to draw in enough buyers to match buy and sell orders. When markets are up, there are more buyers than sellers. The price has to rise enough to convince enough holders of securities to sell and thus match buy and...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do w/450K in cash?
Replies: 32
Views: 4300

Re: What to do w/450K in cash?

Archii, I am not sure you need to do anything. There is something in me that likes good old fashioned money in the bank. If you already have 60% in stocks, do you need more stocks? Perhaps you could construct a ladder of FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposit. Buy your annual allotment of I-Bonds (wai...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did a dumb thing [lump summed into market after sitting on cash for years]
Replies: 111
Views: 13017

Re: Did a dumb thing [lump summed into market after sitting on cash for years]

This week is a textbook example of why I advocate averaging in a lump sum into the market over time rather than all at once. Yes, yes, I know what the academics and their studies say. It is better to put it all in at once but that is not the reality of human psychology. Buyer's remorse is very power...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 69352

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Few things First we all have to "predict" the future to some degree. But IMO it isn't about luck as Simons is quoted as saying. It's about putting the odds of success on your side by using the evidence we have. This is no different with the equity risk premium. I'm confident Simon doesn't...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?
Replies: 79
Views: 8362

Re: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?

watchnerd wrote:
Rx 4 investing wrote:Cliff Asness


Who? Never heard of him.

Which economics Nobel did he win or where is he on the Forbes billionaire's list?


John Bogle does not have an economics Nobel and he is not on the Forbes billionaire list either. Does that mean we shouldn't listen to him?
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 4522

Re: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks

You can now buy VDE at early 2007 prices. At a certain point, you're getting some very good companies at a very good price. I have no idea where the trough is, but I do like the idea of buying something at a price it was at almost a decade ago. The question is, has the world changed? In 2007, we we...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Barrick Gold - Your Thoughts ??
Replies: 2
Views: 271

Re: Barrick Gold - Your Thoughts ??

Now that the market is down does anyone have any thoughts on purchase of Barrick Gold shares for the long term. Recent price at $8.02/share. Not a bad idea. If you were thinking of doing something like this, buy a precious metals mining fund like the one offered by Vanguard. If I were to make a sec...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bad day on Wall Street -- A good day for the media.
Replies: 51
Views: 5587

Re: A bad day on Wall Street -- A good day for the media.

I live in a two story townhouse. If I got depressed and jumped off my deck, I might sprain my ankle. So I might as well stay the course and not let the emotions get to me. Actually, I have been through this several times before and I know what to expect. I just have to see this as opportunity.
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deciding allocation for new investments during a market correction or possibly a Bear market
Replies: 17
Views: 930

Re: Deciding allocation for new investments during a market correction or possibly a Bear market

I have read John Bogle for a while and I am convinced that you cannot beat the market by buying and selling stocks your existing portfolio during up and down markets. Can you just buy the inverse portfolio during a market correction? My investment conditions are that I must invest 10% of my salary ...

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