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Re: Buy & Hold Forever Blue Chip Stocks???

I own individual stocks myself in my retirement portfolio and have for many years. Here are observations from my experience. 1) You should do okay with a well chosen selection of stocks diversified across industry sectors. 2) It is doubtful you will outperform the broad market indexes doing this. Wh...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy & Hold Forever Blue Chip Stocks???
Replies: 73
Views: 3637

Re: What 5 stocks can I own forever?

That is a great question. The problem with your question is that nothing is forever. Eastman Kodak was the bluest of blue chips and we all know what happened with the new digital technology. I owned it years ago as a turn around story but it obviously never turned around. Good candidates for this ty...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What 5 stocks can I own forever?
Replies: 58
Views: 4384

Re: What is your experience managing a 8 or 9 digit portfoli

Thanks LadyGeek for your comments. I have done okay in life but I have not amassed anywhere near what some posters on this forum have mentioned. Not everyone here is a millionaire and I am glad to see comments that there is good advice here for everyone.
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your experience managing a 8 or 9 digit portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 2137

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

But my gosh, $50 million raises a lot of issues that maybe $500,000 does not. Yes, the issues do get more complicated. There are the "gotcha" features in the tax code that start hitting at above about $100,000 in income. For example, there are new taxes on investment for higher income peo...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 15163

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

If I got $50 million, I would probably err on getting too much advice as opposed to too little. It is the thing that this is a really big event and I wouldn't want to screw it up. So I have approached my retirement this way too. I am a competent individual who is very interested in personal finance ...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 15163

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

It sounds like you are down to US Trust and Vanguard. Why not try them both for a while and see who is better in terms of knowledge, service, and quality of advice? You could compare the fees also. If US Trust cost more than Vanguard, make the judgment whether or not the extra fees are worth what yo...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 15163

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

Here is a suggestion, why not test drive the Vanguard Advisor services and at the same time test drive a competitor? You can compare the level of service, the depth of knowledge of the advisors, and the quality of the recommendations. Then after working with both for a while, go to whoever you like ...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 15163

Re: Good interview with John Bogle

Wow. John Bogle market timed in 2000, going from 80% stocks to maybe 25% stocks in part because of extremes in market valuations and in part because of health issues. He also talked about not being 100% out of the stock market. He basically said that you cannot ignore market conditions. I have poste...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good interview with John Bogle
Replies: 34
Views: 3668

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

...The idea of assembling a team of people to help you is an excellent one. If you are a member of a Rotary Club or something like that, perhaps you could seek out a couple respected and successful members of the community for some good general advice. A couple of good mentors. I am not sure of the...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 15163

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

Congratulations on your success. I suppose one of the first things that I would do is learn about how other people in a similar position successfully handled dealing with so much money. My understanding that Peter Lynch, the retired Fidelity Magellan Fund Manager, and his wife spent a lot of their t...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 15163

Re: WSJ/Zweig- The Decline and Fall of Fund Managers

Just as we celebrate the demise of active management, we see "passive" managers looking more and more like active managers. Larry Swedroe has posted a lot about factors that outperform the market averages. Let's see if I can remember them: Value, Size, Quality, Momentum, Liquidity. So as t...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ/Zweig- The Decline and Fall of Fund Managers
Replies: 21
Views: 2332

Re: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Tr

I probably heard about Bill Miller sometime in the late 1990's. What I remember about him was his excellent track record and that he was a "Value" manager who made some pretty big and risky bets. One of his favorite picks was Amazon.com. Before people dump on this guy too much, remember th...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust?
Replies: 32
Views: 2319

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

I do not own a commodities fund except as part of a Target Date Retirement Fund that I own. I want to own asset classes that have real returns above inflation over time. I think of these as an insurance policy against certain unforeseen events. If I had Larry Swedroe as my advisor and I invested wit...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2667

Re: Inflation-indexed SPIAs: A Good Deal?

I would actually consider an Inflation-Indexed Single Premium Immediate Annuity. One way to think of it is that you are taking lower payments now in exchange for inflation adjustments later. Another way of thinking of this is that a non-inflation indexed SPIA gives you all your inflation adjustments...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation-indexed SPIAs: A Good Deal?
Replies: 22
Views: 2885

Re: Why don't utilities get any praise

Utilities I think are a good area for investment. The problem is that times are a changing and you wonder if electricity demand from electric companies will hold up with the advances in solar power. How many homeowners will go off the grid completely? I owned a couple of Utility stocks and both were...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't utilities get any praise
Replies: 39
Views: 3683

Re: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers

There should be agreement between spouses about financial matters. I agree that the Original Poster should not steamroll her husband in moving everything to Vanguard. We have to remember who the $3 million belongs to Miakis and her husband. We are telling them what they CAN do with their funds but n...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers
Replies: 111
Views: 8494

Re: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?

There is a point where adding more asset classes doesn't add anything in return. The goal is to boost returns a bit and hopefully smooth out the ride. I could see a scenario in which just adding asset classes could decrease returns and actually increase volatility. Some thought has to go into this, ...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?
Replies: 23
Views: 3310

Re: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers

Some perspective is in order. First of all, you have done well. A $3 million portfolio is the envy of most people, even Bogleheads. Miakis, you seem to be a level headed and competent individual. You benefitted from a rising stock market the last five years. So the situation you are presenting is ac...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers
Replies: 111
Views: 8494

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

All other things being equal, stock valuations are higher when interest rates are low. This is a big reason we are seeing elevated price/earnings ratios. In bull markets, stocks always look expensive. In bear markets, stocks always look dangerous. I believe that stock prices are richly valued but we...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4887

Re: Help understanding tibs (similar to i-bonds)

I looked at your link, it appears that your market interest rates in Australia are more like 3-4%. The 6 percent coupon you were seeing were on older bonds that are ready to mature. I would be very surprised if you could get a market rate of 6%. The coupon rate isn't what you are really getting as I...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding tibs (similar to i-bonds)
Replies: 6
Views: 485

Re: Help understanding tibs (similar to i-bonds)

If you live in Australia and spend in Aussie Dollars, this sounds like a good deal to me. I am unaware of inflation rates in Australia but 6% on a government bond sounds pretty darned good to me. I assume these operate like TIPS, where you get a stated interest rate plus the inflation adjustment. Th...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding tibs (similar to i-bonds)
Replies: 6
Views: 485

Re: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers

Wow, no wonder why you have been pleased with your investment results. You have a 100% stock portfolio which would have done great since the stock market has been strong for 5 years now. Your portfolio appears to be aggressive even for a 100% stock portfolio. You have been L-U-C-K-Y. I just can't im...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers
Replies: 111
Views: 8494

Re: Help understanding tibs (similar to i-bonds)

If you are a US investor buying Aussie bonds, you are taking on currency risk. If the US Dollar/Aussie Dollar maintain a stable price relationship, you will make out like a bandit effortlessly collecting the 6 percent. However, if the US Dollar significantly increased in value versus the Aussie Doll...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding tibs (similar to i-bonds)
Replies: 6
Views: 485

Re: Do Super wealthy have access to different investing vehi

The super wealthy would have more opportunity to invest in private equity or to even purchase privately held companies. There is also better access to hedge funds which I believe guarantee higher fees and not necessarily better performance. A very wealthy person could amass his or her own real estat...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Super wealthy have access to different investing vehicles
Replies: 76
Views: 6263

Re: 'Risk Creep' - new term

I believe that "risk creep" is a problem for all of us. Professional investors are subject to the same exact problem, even Target Date Retirement Funds seem to be increasing their allotment of stocks in their portfolios. Right now two things are causing this. Low interest rates and reachin...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Risk Creep' - new term
Replies: 26
Views: 2223

Re: Market Timing?

I advocate taking advantage of extremes of market sentiment and valuations but only at the margins. I would never sell all my stocks, probably at most I would sell 30% of my stocks in a market euphoria. In 2000, I sold about 15% of my stocks and took this to cash. In 2008-2009, I was too scared to r...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1232

Re: “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't k

I have used the golf analogy to investing. Many a good athlete has been humbled by golf. There are all kinds of very smart people who have been humbled by investing. Do the right things and do them consistently as an investor and you will succeed. But yes, I have to admit that I realize how little I...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know"
Replies: 18
Views: 1919

Re: “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't k

If you are going to err, it is best to err on the side of conservatism. With a five year bull run in the stock market, a lot of us are feeling pretty frisky. But bad things can happen to good people in the stock market. Since 2000, we have seen two declines of 50% or more in the broad US Stock Marke...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know"
Replies: 18
Views: 1919

Re: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

Livesoft, I liked very much the article that you linked to. Thanks for posting. WOW, a lot of asset classes listed there. More than what I would consider but the article is a great source of information.
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 8
Views: 984

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

Yes, there is that moral hazard problem. I would get around the "too big to fail" problem by breaking up the big banks. Tell them to break themselves up by geography or lines of business. If you want to be a big mega-bank that does everything, then be a regional bank. If you want to be a n...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2654

Re: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?

I was also influenced by Andrew Tobias. His book was one of the first investment books that I read.
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?
Replies: 93
Views: 4303

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

There isn't any one economic school of thought that explains everything. By nature, I am probably more in the Austrian camp. I am suspicious that models can predict everything, as in investing I believe that economics is largely behavioral. My thinking was also influenced by Milton Friedman and mone...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2654

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

If my portfolio was large enough, I certainly would exercise an income strategy taking the income from dividends and interest. But I don't and probably won't, so a combination of annuitizing a portion of my nest egg and a total return strategy with the rest is probably what I will do in retirement. ...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10642

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

I actually like Dave Ramsey and I believe that most of his advice is sound. His investment advice is not the best. My house of worship has sponsored Dave Ramsey classes a couple of times. I went to an introductory session but decided against taking the set of classes. First, I didn't want to face th...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 22488

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

There are at least a couple of reasons for the low inflation. First, there is still a lot of unused capacity in the economy. The labor participation rate is still low even though the unemployment numbers look better. Second is the low velocity of money. There is a lot of cash on the balance sheets o...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2654

Re: Endowments: Paying for complexity or performance?

I think part of this is snob appeal. A lot of foundation boards would be appalled if all the investment manager did was take the endowment and invest it in Vanguard Index Funds. Particularly at a place like Harvard or Yale where the thinking is to hire the very best people. Passive investing would s...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Endowments: Paying for complexity or performance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1055

Re: Aggressive asset allocation as a temporary measure [Spai

First, get over the thoughts that you "need" a certain rate of return on your investments. The markets will return what they will return and don't care at all about your needs and your own personal financial situation. What you have to do is to invest in the most rational way that you can....
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Aggressive asset allocation as a temporary measure [Spain]
Replies: 7
Views: 591

Re: Endowments: Paying for complexity or performance?

I hope Nisiprius didn't hit the "invest" button. I wonder what the overdraft charges would be on a $32 billion fund purchase?
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Endowments: Paying for complexity or performance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1055

Re: "The Cost of Chasing Returns" from St Louis Fed

I have also seen articles that state that most 401k investors stayed put during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. Investors certainly do performance chase but I often think the investing public isn't as dumb as what is often portrayed. Certainly there is conflicting information out the...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Cost of Chasing Returns" from St Louis Fed
Replies: 6
Views: 865

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

What does bother me with Dave Ramsey and the 12% is that he realizes that he has been caught in a mistake and will not own up to it. If you listened carefully to Dave, reading between the lines he admits his error but is angry at the nerds for pointing it out. It is a bit like the Beardstown ladies ...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 22488

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Why do people keep saying that dividend investors are naïve and think that dividends are somehow free money that the market doesn't know about? Yes, I am aware that the price of a stock will normally drop when the stock goes ex-dividend by the amount of the dividend. This happens unless there is som...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 10, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10642

Re: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?

In high school and college I watched Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser. I determined that when I could afford to invest that I wanted an investment portfolio. About 1987, a good friend of mine decided to go into the brokerage business. He had a Money Magazine All-Star broker as his broker and tha...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 09, 2014 1:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?
Replies: 93
Views: 4303

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Of the individual stocks that I have owned, most have paid dividends. But I have owned stocks that don't pay dividends too. My preference is to own dividend payers but it is not a religion with me. I also own pretty aggressive mutual funds based on earnings and price momentum. These funds often pay ...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10642

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

I would like to set the record straight, I have never said that a total return approach is bunk. All I was saying is that this is not a 100% foolproof strategy. This approach has problems in a scenario of a bear market right after an investor's retirement. It is the sequence of returns problem. In a...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10642

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Yes a dividend strategy is a lot like a buckets strategy. The idea is to not sell your stocks in down markets. People will say this is mental accounting. Well, I say whatever works to keep people in the stock market even when things look bad. Nothing destroys the returns of a portfolio like selling ...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10642

Re: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader

Jack, I know a heck of a lot about investing. I have worked with different people in the financial industry with my investments and I have invested through several investment firms. I have owned individual stocks, active mutual funds, index funds, ETF's, zero coupon bonds, and Certificates of Deposi...
by nedsaid
Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader
Replies: 67
Views: 4272

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

JoMoney, thanks for your comments. I am aware that the dividend strategy didn't work in 2008-2009 as companies, particularly financial companies cut their dividends. No strategy is foolproof. I have made the statement many times that all investment strategies fail, the best investment strategies fai...
by nedsaid
Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10642

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

The problem with a total return strategy is what do you do when you have no return? Or if you have a negative return? Dollar cost averaging in reverse during a down market can be devastating to a portfolio. Rick Ferri posted that if retired investors could withdraw only the income generated from a p...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10642

Re: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader

I am skeptical that day trading is as easy as described above, there are Wall Street firms and professional traders doing the same exact thing. The trouble with this type of reasoning is that stocks sometimes go UP on bad news or go DOWN on good news. If the bad news wasn't as bad as the market play...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader
Replies: 67
Views: 4272

Re: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total mark

If you have the US Total Market Index you really don't need a small cap index as it is already included. Small caps are about 9% of the US Total Market: 3% Small Value, 3% Small Blend, and 3% Small Growth. I have suggested that an investor might want to couple a Total Stock Market Index with the Ext...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total market ?
Replies: 58
Views: 5391
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