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Re: "Purposely and exuberantly" unbalanced?

There does get to be a point for certain people that their retirement stash gets large enough that they don't need to take very much risk in retirement. I am not there yet, I have put together a pretty good stash but it needs to grow some more before I can say that I have achieved even my "cons...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Purposely and exuberantly" unbalanced?
Replies: 3
Views: 341

Re: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths

The problem with the various glide paths is that none of us knows the future. If you knew for sure that you were retiring into a bull market, a glide path with rising equity allocation five years after retirement would make a lot of sense. But of course we don't. Knowing that bonds are less volatile...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 26, 2015 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths
Replies: 7
Views: 613

Re: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversificatio

Actually, using Portfolio Visualizer you can see that REITS load on small, value, and term risk factors. Also have a positive loading on MOM. I expect that these factor exposures account for the returns of REITS. The "backtesting" had the purpose of seeing if a simplistic allocation to SC...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 26, 2015 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversification?
Replies: 60
Views: 5173

Re: Which stock fund is the least volatile in bear market?

I thought the total market is the least volatile fund in the bear market, but the chart seems it just dropped as much as the whole market in bear market. Is there any section or style fund that will drop less than the total market fund? May be I was wrong, when I looked at 2008 chart, the total mar...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which stock fund is the least volatile in bear market?
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: keep advisor or do it myself

Winsome, I wouldn't get too hung up on Vanguard vs. DFA and trying to understand all the differences. It really depends on your beliefs about the markets. If you believe in market cap weighted indexing, Vanguard is your choice. If you want the help of an advisor and believe you can beat the market a...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: keep advisor or do it myself
Replies: 39
Views: 3200

Re: Help - Am I being stupid?

No, you are not being stupid. Particularly if you have a family, you almost cannot have too much emergency cash. Six months of expenses will do it for most people, I recommend a year if you work in a volatile industry. Two years is pretty ultra conservative but not a bad idea. There is a lot of comp...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Am I being stupid?
Replies: 16
Views: 1344

Re: Why is international mid cap such an unloved asset class

I do like International Mid-Cap/Small-Cap. I own such a fund at my workplace savings plan, at my mutual fund IRA, and at my Brokerage IRA. It is an important area in the world stock market to be in. The slicer and dicers say that one should have International Small-Cap Value but I have a lot of asse...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is international mid cap such an unloved asset class?
Replies: 6
Views: 371

Re: keep advisor or do it myself

Winsome, I don't think you are getting a bad deal. 1/2% per year for managing a portfolio isn't bad, your fees are probably $6,500 to $8,000 a year. The bottom line question is what are you really getting for that money? How much time is the advisor spending with you? Are you getting just portfolio ...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: keep advisor or do it myself
Replies: 39
Views: 3200

Re: VTTVX or VWELX in Roth IRA

VTTVX is the Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 fund. VWELX is the Wellington Fund. The Vanguard Retirement 2025 fund has as its components Vanguard Total US Stock Market Index 47%, US Total Bond Market Index 25%, Vanguard Total International Stock Index 20%, and Vanguard Total International Bond Index...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTTVX or VWELX in Roth IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 459

Re: Inflation's impact on retirement savings - confused

I have posted about this a few times. I figure that is takes $2.50 to $3.00 to buy what it cost me $1.00 when I started my career in 1983. That is the effect of inflation over 32 years. I came up with that number looking at rents and the price of gas. This time period has been considered a period of...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 25, 2015 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation's impact on retirement savings - confused
Replies: 19
Views: 1420

Re: To ETF or Not to ETF? That is the question.

I am awaiting a mutual fund of ETFs. Somewhere on Wall Street, the evil Catbert is purring!! While this concept exists ( read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fund_of_funds ), it just does not make sense from an investor's point of view. You will pay the management fee twice. That is why Catbert ...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 25, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To ETF or Not to ETF? That is the question.
Replies: 17
Views: 1874

Re: My PC is driving me nuts.

It is sad to say but Internet Explorer is a crummy browser and now even Microsoft is giving up on it and will replace it with a new offering. I have been using IE since it first came out but I also used Netscape and then Firefox. I still use IE as my primary browser but find myself using Google Chro...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 25, 2015 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My PC is driving me nuts.
Replies: 28
Views: 1785

Re: 2 million dollar mistake meeting with MIL's financial gu

My parents have pointed out to me the effect of inflation. When they married in the early 1950's, $10,000 was an impressive amount of money. Not enough to be rich but a pretty nice stash. The projections that a life insurance agent would have made then would be laughed at today. He could have given ...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 million dollar mistake meeting with MIL's financial guy
Replies: 23
Views: 4938

Re: Great little interview with John Bogle

As much as I admire John Bogle, I disagree with him on the subject of International investing. I believe that investors should seek the broadest diversification possible and also invest in the best companies in the world. A US only investor shuts out some of the very best world class companies. A Ja...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great little interview with John Bogle
Replies: 23
Views: 2190

Re: To ETF or Not to ETF? That is the question.

I am awaiting a mutual fund of ETFs. Somewhere on Wall Street, the evil Catbert is purring!!
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To ETF or Not to ETF? That is the question.
Replies: 17
Views: 1874

Wall Street Week is Back

A tip of the hat to Cullen Roche and his blog "Pragmatic Capitalism." He posted an article about the return of Wall Street Week. The rights to the show were purchased by Anthony Scaramucci. The set where the show is produced is now located at Times Square in New York City. https://www.yout...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wall Street Week is Back
Replies: 4
Views: 816

Re: Many roads to Dublin [Robo vs. Human Advisor Comparison]

Wow, the robots offered more complex portfolios while the humans tended to offer more simple portfolios. I would have thought that it would have been the opposite. The Schwab robot in particular just went crazy. Their stock portfolio was split between the market weight indexes and the fundamental in...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Many roads to Dublin [Robo vs. Human Advisor Comparison]
Replies: 6
Views: 823

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I did my small part to further internationalize my portfolio. I sold 1/2 of my US REIT fund at my Mutual Fund IRA and used the proceeds to buy a Global Real Estate Fund. The Global Real Estate Fund is 1/2 US and 1/2 International. So what I did was create a Real Estate portfolio that is about 25% I...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 353
Views: 47212

Re: Individual Stocks vs ETFs - which one is better and why?

I like the philosophy of broad diversification over narrow diversification. It is a tough experience when you lose thousands of dollars in a single stock like I have at least a couple of times. It really smarts. Of course I had my winners too and overall I did okay. Holding an ETF based on a broad i...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks vs ETFs - which one is better and why?
Replies: 9
Views: 743

Re: Fidelity Contrafund

I need some handholding here to persuade me to sell a large position in FCNTX and move over it over to an index fund. FCNTX has treated me well since 2003, and I have no complaints (except for the fees being 0.6%). It is about 9% of my overall portfolio, the rest being predominantly low cost index ...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Contrafund
Replies: 32
Views: 4220

Re: Home purchase = sell REIT?

A home is a place to live, it generates no cash flow for you and it may or may not provide capital appreciation. (It probably will). My guess is that you aren't paying yourself rent. Living in a home in my mind is really not an investment in the real estate market. Real Estate stocks and income prop...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home purchase = sell REIT?
Replies: 12
Views: 757

Re: VNQ & VNQI

At my mutual fund IRA, I sold 50% of my Real Estate fund using the proceeds to buy a Global Real Estate Fund. This creates a real estate portfolio that is 75% US and 25% International within this IRA. I am dipping my toe into International Real Estate. From comments in other threads and some reading...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VNQ & VNQI
Replies: 22
Views: 2128

Re: I am torn about AT&T stock

JW Nearly Retired wrote:People get attached to their stocks. It's like they were thinking of selling their old dog. :(
JW


A Peter Lynch quote is in order here. He said that investors should keep their spouse and trade their stocks. Unfortunately, too many people trade their spouse and marry their stocks!
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am torn about AT&T stock
Replies: 19
Views: 1916

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I did my small part to further internationalize my portfolio. I sold 1/2 of my US REIT fund at my Mutual Fund IRA and used the proceeds to buy a Global Real Estate Fund. The Global Real Estate Fund is 1/2 US and 1/2 International. So what I did was create a Real Estate portfolio that is about 25% In...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 353
Views: 47212

Re: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"

Dodecahedron, you have hit on a very important point. You keep saying "no guarantee" and on this point you are absolutely correct. Markets will do what markets will do not caring about what our needs, desires, or appetites for risk. We don't even know for certain that stocks will outperfor...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"
Replies: 46
Views: 4289

Re: Has anyone changed their asset allocation

It's a tough investment climate in that bonds are going to certainly return less going forward, yet stocks seemed to be reaching frothy territory. Has anyone here changed their asset allocation due to what seems like a long running and possibly tired bull market. I know no one knows if and when it ...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone changed their asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 3402

Re: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"

This is why I have been a stock guy. I don't see why remembering the purchasing power losses of the 1970s would make one inclined to be a "stock guy" now. Stocks didn't do so well dealing with inflation in the 70s and there was quite a bit of stressful turbulence during those times. If TI...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"
Replies: 46
Views: 4289

Re: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"

Warren Buffett is right, we should be focused on the loss of purchasing power of the dollar rather than short term volatility of our investments. My best guess is that it takes $2.50 to $3.00 to purchase today what it took $1.00 to buy in 1983 when I started my career. We have to remember that infla...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"
Replies: 46
Views: 4289

Re: [Who is Ameriprise? Got invitation from a financial advi

One big problem with Ameriprise is that they have a favored list of fund providers, fund companies that pay Ameriprise for shelf space. Recommendations from an advisor will be very heavily tilted towards the Columbia Funds (which Ameriprise owns) or towards its preferred providers. Advisors have to ...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Who is Ameriprise? Got invitation from a financial advisor]
Replies: 32
Views: 2838

Re: Questions for Financial Adviser

I looked at the LPL advisors website and saw their list of mutual fund providers. It is a who's who of the loaded mutual fund companies. This is not Vanguard, you father in law will be paying some pretty good fees. Hopefully he is in the lower expense ratio funds, American Funds are among the best i...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions for Financial Adviser
Replies: 18
Views: 875

Re: Questions for Financial Adviser

Some good news. If your father in law has millions invested, it is very likely that he is not paying the same level of fees and commissions that you are. If your investment with a fund company is high enough ($1 million), the loads get waived. There are also lower expense fund classes that are avail...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions for Financial Adviser
Replies: 18
Views: 875

Re: What should I invest in? Rental property or stocks?

Who says this is an either or decision? If you have the aptitude to manage real estate and deal with tenants, why not give it a shot? If you decide upon a rental, there is no rule book that says that all your investable cash has to go into it. Why not do some of each?
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What should I invest in? Rental property or stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 693

Re: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Ass

At whatever point that I had achieved "critical mass", I would be very satisfied with a 3% or 4% real return over inflation. Just to think that not so many years ago, I-Bonds offered just that!! :oops: :oops: :oops: I should have backed up the truck and bought all that I could but I passed...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Guaranteed Return Would You Require to Move All Assets
Replies: 54
Views: 3153

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]

There is a part of me that would be really enthusiastic about a "robo-advisor" approach. Something that would keep my automatically rebalanced and perform all the risk vs. return calculations. For most people, this would be a good thing. But a few things give me pause. First, companies cha...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 19, 2015 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 374
Views: 33662

Re: New Vanguard White Paper: "Factor-based investing" (Apr

I have done factor investing my entire investing career. My first mutual fund investment in July 1984 was with a mutual fund company that emphasized earnings and price momentum. I have stayed with this company since, also investing in their value, index optimization, and fixed income funds. Put a ch...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 19, 2015 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard White Paper: "Factor-based investing" (Apr '15)
Replies: 21
Views: 3149

Re: what to do about variable annuities?

What I would do is read up on those Prudential annuities. They might have pretty good living benefit guarantees. This would include guarantees of principal and periodic step up of guaranteed principal. Or perhaps a guaranteed withdrawals from an income base that grows at a certain percentage. In oth...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 18, 2015 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what to do about variable annuities?
Replies: 16
Views: 1574

Re: "What Experts Say About Jack Bogle"

I have never had the pleasure of meeting Jack Bogle but I have enjoyed every video interview of him. He is the type of person who wears very well. The more that I see him interviewed, the more impressed I am.
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 18, 2015 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Experts Say About Jack Bogle"
Replies: 8
Views: 2396

Re: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming

From the time I started investing in July 1984, a terrible crash has always been coming! The next great depression was always right around the corner. The dollar has been dying for decades. It is enough to scare the holy heck out of you. If I had listened to this stuff back then, I would have sold a...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 18, 2015 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming
Replies: 71
Views: 8361

Re: How to analyze portfolio recommendations

I certainly would not buy the whole life insurance. If you want tax deferred cash value, why not buy term insurance and use the difference in premiums to buy Series I and EE bonds at Treasury Direct? The illustrations that the insurance agent provides might look impressive, but how much return can 2...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 18, 2015 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to analyze portfolio recommendations
Replies: 13
Views: 693

Re: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?

I wouldn't say that stocks are on sale. We are still close to all time highs. We haven't even seen a 10% correction for a while. If you are on a regular program of systematic investments into the stock market, I would continue. I certainly don't see this as a huge buying opportunity.
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 18, 2015 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 5849

Re: Cash is King with the Profitability Factor

I think this is right. Actual cash flows are harder to fake than earnings. Dividends are harder to fake than earnings. All it takes to boost earnings is a journal entry. A boost in cash flow is most often from a boost in the actual business.
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 18, 2015 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is King with the Profitability Factor
Replies: 2
Views: 1159

Re: John Bogle vs Jim Grant Debate

Really what this debate boils down to is whether factor investing, particularly value, can beat a market capitalization weighted index. Jim Grant happens to be a value oriented investor. But the debate could have been indexing versus any other factor. This reminds me of the Bogle "Telltale Char...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 17, 2015 10:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle vs Jim Grant Debate
Replies: 14
Views: 2147

Re: Wall Street Banks’ Mutual Funds Can Lag on Returns

The so-called house funds of the major brokerage firms have been regarded as mediocre for many years. I would stay away from these.
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Banks’ Mutual Funds Can Lag on Returns
Replies: 4
Views: 458

Re: Need advice - Invest in Small Cap?

My take on this is that a simple 3-5 fund portfolio is a great approach to investing. I practice small/value tilting myself but am not overly dogmatic about it. It is a matter of investing taste and investing philosophy. If what you are doing is working and you are pleased with it, then stay the cou...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice - Invest in Small Cap?
Replies: 6
Views: 1021

Re: Wall Street Fees Wipe Out $2.5 Billion in NYC Pensions

Louis, I will give you credit. Before the two threads were merged, I read your comments on the other thread. Your post certainly influenced my comments. I wouldn't be unhappy with 0.2% management fees and a performance that beat the market by a tad. I would say that the New York Pension Funds have ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Fees Wipe Out $2.5 Billion in NYC Pensions
Replies: 17
Views: 2581

Re: Wall Street Fees Wipe Out $2.5 Billion in NYC Pensions

Louis, I will give you credit. Before the two threads were merged, I read your comments on the other thread. Your post certainly influenced my comments. I wouldn't be unhappy with 0.2% management fees and a performance that beat the market by a tad. I would say that the New York Pension Funds have d...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Fees Wipe Out $2.5 Billion in NYC Pensions
Replies: 17
Views: 2581

Re: "NYC pension fees are a $2.5B lesson for investors"

Okay, let's do a little math here. $2.5 Billion divided by ten is $250 Million per year. Let's take the $250 Million and divide it by the $160 Billion value of the pension portfolios. I come up with .0015625. That is about one-sixth of one percent. There is something missing in the story. Even if yo...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Fees Wipe Out $2.5 Billion in NYC Pensions
Replies: 17
Views: 2581

Re: how safe is your life insurance company?

I remember posting about AIG and wondering if its problems during the financial crisis would endanger payments to policyholders. Pretty much I got poo-pooed. Gee whiz, didn't I know that AIG was an umbrella and it was the umbrella that was in trouble and not all its subsidiaries? The parent company ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 12, 2015 5:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how safe is your life insurance company?
Replies: 3
Views: 701

Re: International Investing

This is an excellent point, the concept of diminishing returns. Yes, International Stocks are not the magic elixir that with cure all diversification woes. Indeed, an all-U.S. investor will likely perform in a very similar manner to an investor who diversifies Internationally. What I am guarding ag...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing
Replies: 65
Views: 4309

Re: International Investing

Maynard, you raise an excellent point. I am a believer in Emerging Markets. The trouble is that this is a very volatile asset class and can have periods of disappointing results which is why they are sometimes nick-named "Submerging Markets." But I agree with you that Emerging Markets are ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing
Replies: 65
Views: 4309
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