Search found 3250 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Should a true BH visit this forum?

I came to Bogleheads for a couple of reasons. First, I wanted to learn from experienced investors. Second, I wanted to share what I learned with others in hopes that others won't have to make the mistakes that I did.
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should a true BH visit this forum regularly?
Replies: 32
Views: 2772

Re: Did you learn anything from 2008?

What I learned is that even distinguished experts can be caught off guard. Certain unnamed people said that subprime mortgages were a small portion of outstanding debt and thought that the "crisis" was a tempest in a teapot. Boy were they ever wrong. The crisis nearly took down our financi...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you learn anything from 2008?
Replies: 67
Views: 4299

Re: Bear market warning sign

This is another discouraging thing that happens to investors. That is seeing the markets drop right after you invest. This is just part of the process, it happens to all of us.
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear market warning sign
Replies: 19
Views: 3124

Re: stick with current portfolio or move to Bill Schultheis'

As a recovering member of tinkeraholics anonymous, I am one to lecture people about staying the course. I have tried a lot of things as an investor and that is one reason why I have learned so much. Riptide, it is your money and you are free to do anything with it you would like. I know that I have....
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: stick with current portfolio or move to Bill Schultheis' cof
Replies: 15
Views: 1099

Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

Wait until it actually happens to you. In 2008-2009 crash, we were about 70/30 stocks/bonds. At the peak we had about $750,000... our total life savings... 20 years of savings. And we lost $250,000 in about a year. Try losing that much money in a year and see how you feel. I rebalanced once on the ...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 5213

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I knew I would get these responses. Market timing. But, it sure seems if somebody took out 30% and put it in cash at the right time, he would be sitting pretty. I know, at the right time... I know you have read a lot my posts. If I was so smart that I had perfectly timed the market since I started ...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 29, 2015 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 101
Views: 9888

Re: How to invest in retirement

Welcome to the forum! $12,000 year withdrawal from a $2.5M portfolio is a 5.76% withdrawal rate. This is unsustainable, long term, even with low investment costs (yours likely aren't!) At 72/64 one of you could well have 35 years ahead of you. Whoops, I think you mean $12,000 per month which is $14...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 29, 2015 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest in retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 1293

Re: How to invest in retirement

My first thought is that you and your husband need to write up an Investment Policy Statement. There is a pretty good worksheet in .pdf format at the Morningstar website. The worksheet is two pages, print it out and start writing. It doesn't have to be fancy but it gives you an opportunity to put yo...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 29, 2015 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest in retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 1293

Re: Risk Questionnaires: How they work?

How and why would they be the same? These kinds of surveys are a bunch of crap anyway, with answers varying widely depending on mood, framing, recent events (and in the investing world, "recent" means last several years, i.e. a long time in human terms), etc. I doubt they're all that well...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Questionnaires: How they work?
Replies: 27
Views: 1597

Re: Michael Spence: Are Equities Overvalued?

From many years of investing experience I can say that most of the time that Equities look overvalued. Much of that is because of a relentlessly negative press that misses an awful lot of good news out there. Low interest rates, very good corporate earnings, and the US safe haven status around the w...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Spence: Are Equities Overvalued?
Replies: 13
Views: 1515

Re: How many of you invest in individual stocks?

I still own 15 individual stocks in a brokerage IRA. I have made a change on rare occasion but I haven't done serious research since the 2000 crash. I have mostly relied on my independent broker to keep me up on my stocks and to suggest changes. Active mutual funds and individual stocks are how I st...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you invest in individual stocks?
Replies: 69
Views: 4310

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

I have posted many times that human behavior drives the Value premium. That is my opinion. Others say that the premium is a "risk" or "bad company" story. Larry Swedroe thinks it is some of both. I believe that it is the very human behavior of performance chasing and buying into ...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 55
Views: 5686

Re: Interest in multi asset class investing and crises

For fans of multi-asset class investing, I've got a question. Does the fact that correlations go to 1 in crises diminish your interest in multi asset class investing? Dave Not really. I am very much aware of the phenomenon that you are talking about. My independent broker has made comments along th...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest in multi asset class investing and crises
Replies: 11
Views: 841

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

The paper was more about the "behavior gap" than it was about value investing. The paper did say that value outperformed the S&P 500 but value investors did not. This was due to the "behavior gap." The paper said that the behavior gap for value investors was less than for gro...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 55
Views: 5686

Re: My evil plan backfired

I will repeat the advice given by the National Association of Investment Clubs. That is if you buy five carefully chosen stocks: one will bomb, three will perform about as expected, and one will perform beyond your wildest expectations. To do this right, it takes a lot of time to properly research s...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My evil plan backfired
Replies: 53
Views: 6740

Re: Tax Differed Variable Annuity

I have a Variable Annuity because it was in essence my 401k during a couple years I was temping and my first year working for a bank. During that time, I did not have access to a 401k plan. In those days, the maximum contribution to an IRA Account was $2,000/year. So I started up a lower cost variab...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Differed Variable Annuity
Replies: 16
Views: 1144

Re: How important is an international allocation?

Despite all of my enthusiasm for International investing, I am still mostly a US investor. I haven't calculated things precisely, but something like 25% of my stocks and 8% of my bonds are invested Internationally. I have done this because it seems like common sense to not have all your money in you...
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4581

Re: How important is an international allocation?

As John Bogle often said, "In the investment business, nobody knows nothing." Isn't that the truth? It also sounds like something Yogi Berra would say. Mr. Bogle attributed it to one of his mentors. Edit: Another famous quote is from Mark Twain, "There are lies, damned lies, and stati...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4581

Re: How important is an international allocation?

To the untrained and unbiased eye, it would appear that the blue line (US only) had the smoothest ride. What it shows is that the portfolios with International outperformed from about 1983 on and that the US only portfolio caught up only recently. You can see that the US portfolio actually had lower...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4581

Re: "Mind the Gap"

I think there is a performance gap. Mr. Bogle believes in it and spent a whole chapter on the subject in his Little Common Sense Book on Investing. I think the phenomenon is real but not nearly as bad as portrayed. The little guy or gal who is in there investing the best they can are not the helples...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mind the Gap"
Replies: 9
Views: 2303

Re: How important is an international allocation?

Nisiprius, it is good to challenge assumptions and I thank you for posting your graph. I certainly am not accusing anyone of cherry picking data. I just can't help but notice that US Stocks and International Stocks tend to outperform each other at different times. It just seems common sense that thi...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4581

Re: Who should be concerned?

I own a Target Date fund at Fidelity and I have noticed that they have changed their allocations. Not too long ago they had 7% in a commodities fund and then noticed later that it got trimmed to one percent. My favorite mutual fund company has Target Date and Target Risk funds. I don't own any of th...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 231
Views: 18860

Re: How important is an international allocation?

...When one asset class zigs a bit while the other one zags a bit, you get a bit smoother ride in your portfolio... Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund, VTWSX, is globally cap-weighted and thus about 50/50 US/International and ought to show that "smoother ride." Since inception, has the...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4581

Re: How important is an international allocation?

To me, a lot of this boils down to broad diversification versus narrower diversification. If I see an asset class that over time has real returns over inflation and does not correlate exactly with the US Stock Market, I am interested in owning it. I am more comfortable with having some of my financi...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is an international allocation?
Replies: 66
Views: 4581

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

note Andy is a Ph.D. in psychics . . . Extremely useful for market predictions! LOL!!! LOL!!! LOL!!! I have always joked about future testing portfolios but with the Director of Research having a Ph.D. in psychics that is now possible! Let the future testing begin!! I have to admit that I am someti...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4179

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

nedsaid wrote: Garland, we did get a benefit from the increased government debt in that it helped reflate the real estate and financial markets. In essence, it was a swap of government debt for private debt. I believe that debt is money. The write-off of subprime and other mortgage debt took a lot ...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3804

Re: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"

Don't forget the mid-caps which perform in similar manner. Many people believe the mid-caps are the "sweet spot" of the stock market.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"
Replies: 14
Views: 2133

Re: Mother-in-laws portfolio. Need advice.

Your mom isn't doing badly but we need more information. What is your mom's asset allocation? What percentage in US Stocks? What percentage in International Stocks? What percentage in US Bonds? What percentage in International Bonds? You can run the portfolio through the Morningstar X-Ray for free. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mother-in-laws portfolio. Need advice.
Replies: 9
Views: 1162

Re: What Age Did You First Ponder Financial Independence?

In my mid 20's I was introduced to the concept while driving in my police car and listening to Bob Brinker. I remember his term for it was critical mass. Yes, I was an avid listener to Bob Brinker as well. I think I discovered him in 1986 as he was on one of the big radio stations in my area. I lea...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Age Did You First Ponder Financial Independence?
Replies: 74
Views: 6899

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

This reminds me of when our tour group stopped at the Rhine River in Germany and we were told this was the border of the Roman Empire. On one side was civilization and on the other side was barbarism. Of course, the Germanic peoples would take issue with that. I suppose there is a bit of frustration...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2359

Re: Teaching a responsible teen about money

I really think the best thing that a parent can do is to set a good example. Good habits that are modeled tend to be repeated by children. Of course personality has a lot to do with this. Some people have temperaments that are better suited to good financial management than others. Good financial pr...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teaching a responsible teen about money
Replies: 12
Views: 988

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

This reminds me of the quote from former Yankees pitcher Jim Boutin. He said that by the time I get to where it is at, it has moved somewhere else. Investing in Low Volatility Funds is a great idea but it seems like everyone has beaten me to it. I suppose the time to invest is when no one cares abou...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2834

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

Garland wrote a good post despite a math error and getting teased a lot about it. I had no idea that a math error in a blog post caused the decline of the British empire! He is dipping his toe in the water and taking a flier into this fund. I have read that Dr. Bill Bernstein has also commented that...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2359

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

I read that Rick Ferri believed that for gold to be within the long term trend line of keeping its purchasing power that its price should be about $800. Do I remember correctly? Gold would still need to drop by about 1/3.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2359

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

For whatever it is worth, my take is that being able to count on Social Security might allow a retiree to be somewhat more aggressive. Perhaps 10% more in stocks than what such an investor would normally have. But that is about as far as I would take it. I would not take the present value of my est...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7339

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

I have thought about doing this very thing for a while. The Precious Metals fund has been doing so poorly since it peaked on April 30, 2011. Looking at a growth of $10,000 over 10 years chart it went from $27,056.18 on April 30, 2011 to $10,190.60 today. Over 10 years, this fund went from $10,000 to...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2359

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

Great thought provoking post, Simplegift. Also enjoyed nedsaid's comments about debt. Debt levels including mortgage debt, other personal debt, and governmental debt have provided tailwinds for developed economies for decades. That engine is running out of steam. The problem is that debt used to gi...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3804

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

I did see a Jack Bogle interview where he said that many retirees were too conservative and did not have enough in stocks. He made statements to the effect that because retirees could count on Social Security for steady income that retirees could be more aggressive with their portfolios. If memory s...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7339

Re: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

Steve, I don't think you have messed up at all. If you stick with your plan, I think you will do well. The small/value tilts will start working again when you see article after article debunking the small and value premiums and touting the superior performance of large growth. I have noticed that my...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2834

Re: Future Stock Returns in an Aging World?

Simplegift wrote:
Honestly, I'm not aspiring to become the Harry Dent of the Bogleheads Forum! :wink:


Harry Dent was on to something but economies are complex and demographics are one factor. A very big factor but not the only factor.
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Stock Returns in an Aging World?
Replies: 25
Views: 2808

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

I am just saying that credit expansion is a big factor. A discussion is possible without being political or getting into economic policy. All other things being equal, credit expansion will aid economic growth. Credit contraction will hinder economic growth. This is a factor. I suppose an aging popu...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3804

Re: Portfolio Review 32/37 year olds

A couple comments. Yes, you could be more aggressive with your asset allocation because of your wife's pension but I don't recommend this. Here is why: 1) Many pension plans both public and private are underfunded and are counting on unrealistic investment returns; 2) You might think of a pension as...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review 32/37 year olds
Replies: 6
Views: 1085

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds

For whatever it is worth, here are my thoughts on this. I like to create my own portfolios using a good Target Risk fund as a model. If I don't like a couple of the funds the Target Risk fund uses, I can substitute funds that I like better. Or I might have a bit different take on the asset classes I...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2996

Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds

"What the crowd is doing: Racing into low-volatility funds that focus on boring Steady Eddie companies like Procter & Gamble. As a result, the price/earnings ratio for stocks in the PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF is 12% higher than the broad market. Yet, "low vol" shar...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Magazine on Low Volatility Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2834

Re: Managing Endowment Funds in a Bogleheaded Way

I would counsel eternal vigilance over your non-profit's endowment funds. I have always been amazed at the power of charisma and smooth speech. People blessed with such talents can turn the unbelievable into the believable and nonsense into what seems like divine revelation. Sooner or later your boa...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing Endowment Funds in a Bogleheaded Way
Replies: 3
Views: 485

Re: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?

All I can say was that the incident really scared me. It was one of the motivating factors for me to upgrade my computer from Windows XP to Windows 7 which I did one year ago. XP was getting leakier and leakier. I did research on the "FBI Money Pack" Virus and viruses in general and found ...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?
Replies: 29
Views: 3047

Re: "Assessing the Risk of Using Just One Fund Company.."

Another thing I have wondered about would be the effect of an EMP attack on our country or the effects of a burst of radiation from an extreme solar flare. What effect does this have upon data? It does worry me a bit now that financial assets are now mostly electronic blips on some kind of storage m...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Assessing the Risk of Using Just One Fund Company.."
Replies: 18
Views: 2774

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

Simplegift, another item that should be considered is the credit expansion that took place after World War II and probably peaked in 2008. How much more can the average American afford to leverage themselves? Three percent real economic growth is considered good. My guess is that population growth a...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3804

Re: Vanguard on portfolio inflation protection.

I don't know about anybody else but I am keeping the inflation fighters in my portfolio: TIPS, REITs, US Stocks. I am also fighting inflation and hedging the dollar a bit with International Stocks and International Bonds. I am not worried about runaway inflation like we had during the 1970's but kee...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on portfolio inflation protection.
Replies: 2
Views: 540

Re: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?

I have not used security software in over 5 years now. As long as you don't do anything stupid on your computer, you don't get viruses. I don't share, and I sure as hell don't install. Ahem. (Clearing my throat). Viruses are embedded in websites and can come in right through your browser. That is w...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone dropping Kaspersky computer security?
Replies: 29
Views: 3047
Next

Return to advanced search