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Re: Inflation Adjusted Bond Fund

No, do not sell it. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are there in case you run into unexpected inflation. If inflation doesn't rear its ugly head, the fund will perform in similar fashion to other bond funds. If we get a burst of unexpected inflation, you will be glad you owned the fund. The ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation Adjusted Bond Fund
Replies: 3
Views: 222

Re: Feeling very fortunate today!

Well I appreciate everyone applying their diagnostic abilities to what to me seems like an infinitely logical decision. I must say at first I was taken aback by all the negativity and to be honest not at all flattered by the picture I was seeing painted. But I was probably oversensitive feeling I h...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feeling very fortunate today!
Replies: 73
Views: 11379

Re: Set and Forget Portfolio?

A set and forget portfolio has been a goal of mine as an investor. But in practice it hasn't worked out quite like that. I keep an Excel spreadsheet that has a tab for each year and I can go back and see what my portfolio looked like years earlier. It looks much the same. I had 18 individual stocks ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Set and Forget Portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1178

Re: vanguard international bond fund

There is a case for International Bonds but it is not a very strong one. I own a couple of International Bond funds because I want currency diversification in my portfolio. Since the US Dollar has been so strong recently, my International Bond funds have not been doing so well. But that is the price...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard international bond fund
Replies: 4
Views: 642

Re: finally learning about investing, portfolio review

Hi everybody, I recently graduated from grad school and started a job(and career hopefully), so after being in school what seems like forever (along with a 5 year stint in the military), I finally have the time, money, and interest to be able to get serious about planning for my retirement. My two ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: finally learning about investing, portfolio review
Replies: 2
Views: 300

Re: Scared to Invest

Don't be ashamed of experiencing a bit of fear when it comes to the markets. What is worse is to become complacent about the risks of the financial markets. Keep a healthy respect for the volatility of the markets. Get a plan, Stan and stick to it. You are an excellent candidate for an investment po...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scared to Invest
Replies: 49
Views: 3604

Re: Why should I avoid REITs?

I have been an advocate of adding a slice of REITs to a stock market portfolio. REITs have about the same returns over time as does the broad stock market but you get a diversification benefit in that REITs often do not correlate with the broad market. That is they often zig when the broad market z...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why should I avoid REITs?
Replies: 54
Views: 7075

Re: Why should I avoid REITs?

I like REITs. I want to be a business owner, own residential and commercial real estate, and provide stability to my holdings by owning debt. Thus I own stocks, REITs, and bonds. I can participate in capitalism with the headaches of owning a small business, being a landlord, and being a creditor. So...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why should I avoid REITs?
Replies: 54
Views: 7075

Re: Using balanced funds to avoid rebalancing

Rebalancing is something we do as investors to control risk and not to increase return. My take is that sometimes there is a rebalancing bonus and sometimes not and over time it all washes out. These rebalancing threads are quite interesting. I mentioned that I was very casual of rebalancing my port...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using balanced funds to avoid rebalancing
Replies: 27
Views: 1663

Re: Asness response to value redundancy

In a recent interview, Gene Fama said the following... "...once you get beyond two dimensions of expected returns, the third adds very little. No matter how you stack them, it doesn't matter where you start. So, if you start with size and add value, say, and you add profitability, you don't ge...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness response to value redundancy
Replies: 7
Views: 1029

Re: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?

The Swenson portfolio is actually a fairly conventional portfolio. A 70/30 stocks to bonds allocation is something that investors could hold for years. The bonds are there to help cushion big drops in the stock market. My portfolio has been about 70/30 for a while and I noticed my losses in the 2000...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 2707

Re: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investi

... First, the 2008-2009 financial crisis hit dividend stocks really hard because many of the good dividend payers are financial stocks. A whole industry either eliminated or curtailed its dividend. This is why dividends didn't offer the downside protection in 2008-2009 that they normally do... Ben...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 21, 2014 1:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investing
Replies: 42
Views: 4334

Re: Am I being too conservative?

I think you are doing just fine with your 70/30 portfolio. My portfolio is approximately 70/30 and I am 55 years old. Maybe I am being too aggressive. The amount of fixed income to hold in a portfolio is an individual decision. It really is your sleeping point, the amount of bonds and cash you need ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being too conservative?
Replies: 19
Views: 1436

Re: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?

There must be a mistake into the original post. I added up all the asset classes and it came to 110%. Could the OP correct the post? Thanks.
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 2707

Re: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investi

Two things to keep in mind in this discussion about dividend investing. One thing that depressed recent past returns and the other that will depress future returns for a while. First, the 2008-2009 financial crisis hit dividend stocks really hard because many of the good dividend payers are financia...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investing
Replies: 42
Views: 4334

Re: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality

Investing is not an exact science and this thread is a good illustration of this. The truth is that we all diversify and hope for the best not knowing what the future will hold. As for me, I was awfully glad during the 'lost decade" of the 2000's that I had International Stocks, REITs, Smaller ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality
Replies: 52
Views: 3594

Re: Bond Fund vs CDs - which to use?

If you are younger, stick with the bond fund and reinvest the dividends. If you are near retirement or in retirement and don't want the volatility of bond funds, FDIC Insured CDs might be better for you. Nothing wrong with a CD ladder.
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund vs CDs - which to use?
Replies: 51
Views: 3604

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

I used to be a believer that the tanks the automakers made in the 1960's and 1970's would hold up well in a crash. I believed that until I saw a clip on Youtube showing a test crash between a seventies vintage vehicle and a modern car. The old cars just don't hold up and don't do a good job of prote...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 67
Views: 4575

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

I still have individual stocks because I have gains that I do not want to take. For quite some time new money has gone into index funds. I have sold positions slowly with the idea of keeping no individual stock as too high a percentage in my portfolio while keeping capital gains taxes down. I also ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 57
Views: 5219

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Man, I just love this. Every time this thread pops up after a market drop, the market bounces back. This thread is a wonderful contrary indicator.
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 189534

Re: Why did FSTVX drop in value Friday?

As Benjamin Franklin might have said, there are only three sure things in life: death, taxes, and "Why did my fund drop in Value?" threads during distribution season.
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why did FSTVX drop in value Friday?
Replies: 5
Views: 710

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Momentum droughts are one of the troubling aspects of the momentum strategy. But droughts apply to the other anomalies as well, so are not unique to momentum. As I pointed out above, momentum and value appear to be negatively correlated, so using them together might be beneficial in dealing with dr...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 107
Views: 8987

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

You know, I just don't get this. Razor thin margins. All the reefer madness warnings. What the heck are folks out there buying? NASDAQ Bulletin Board Stocks? Canadian mining companies? Penny stocks? We are all adults here. Stocks are risky. They are risky if owned in an index or individually. With a...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 57
Views: 5219

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

Continuing my journey to becoming a Boglehead, I want to know why you don't invest in individual companies? High risk the only reason? The problem is that most stocks are losers . A chart from this Chase whitepaper: http://i57.tinypic.com/osz5hi.png This is the performance of individual stocks in t...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 57
Views: 5219

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

I personally agree with most of the general philosophy in this forum, except that is has to be funds, where I (respectfull) disagree with most but not all members in this forum. It has been shown mathematically that only a relatively small number of representative securities together have (asymptot...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 57
Views: 5219

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

I do follow it. Although it's something less than the 10% bond allocation, and closer to the allocation suggested by the question/response he gave to author/blogger Tim Ferriss at the 2008 BRK Meeting: “If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time inve...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8126

Re: My thoughts.

So oil prices are dropping due to an oil oversupply and the stock market is going down, seemingly because of this. But if oil prices were surging upwards due to a shortage, I bet the stock market would also be going down because of forecasts of the dire economic impact of this. So this is typical o...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts.
Replies: 13
Views: 1571

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

When the stock markets are going up, it would seem to me that rebalancing would reduce risk as you are selling more volatile, risky stocks to buy less volatile and less risky bonds. You would expect to sacrifice a bit of return to keep volatility a bit in check. When stock markets are going down, r...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4833

Re: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments

I have considered Alternative Retirement Investments not to enhance return but to act as portfolio insurance. I have considered things like Natural Resources Funds, Precious Metals Mining funds, and gold and silver themselves. I also have looked at commodities after reading Larry Swedroe's comments....
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice And Dice Alternative Retirement Investments
Replies: 9
Views: 1152

Re: Energy sector

It would seem that just plowing into energy stocks when prices are down would seem to be a "no-brainer." But I advised those interested in such a strategy to nibble and add to their positions over time. Why am I so cautious? First, bottoms are very hard to call. We don't know what a market...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4192

Re: Investing more when the market is down.

I think this is a premature discussion. Weren't we at market highs on Thursday? The market falls 300 points on Friday and we are talking about a down market. We are down maybe 2% from the market high. So far, this is just a blip on the radar. If the market did go down substantially, investing more t...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing more when the market is down.
Replies: 22
Views: 2295

Re: Energy sector

Oil stocks are not plays on the oil price. They are *leveraged* plays on the oil price. An oil company is a huge semi-fixed cost, with revenues mostly dependent upon the price of oil. Beware that. FT today says junk debt in the energy sector now forecast to have a 14% default rate (2 different plac...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4192

Re: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?

With oil dropping the way it is and all the uncertainty and fears surrounding the european markets and the end of QE..think a crash is pending? As I recall, RISING OIL PRICES were a big cause of the 1973-74 bear market. It is always something. Rising oil prices. Oops, now it is the risk of falling ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5701

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Gatorman, all I was doing was showing a couple real-life examples of a company using a momentum strategy. I actually have owned earnings acceleration and price momentum funds from this company. I got disappointed in their large cap growth funds so I shifted to their mid-cap and small-cap funds that ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 107
Views: 8987

Re: [Merriman] Why Vanguard Total Stock Market isn’t the bes

If you want to do a simple indexing strategy, the US Total Stock Market and the Total International Stock Market Funds would be the best. Vanguard of course has such funds and the Fidelity Spartan Funds are also a very fine alternative. If you pick an International Index fund, make sure it contains ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 155
Views: 18562

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

A few observations here. When the stock markets are going up, it would seem to me that rebalancing would reduce risk as you are selling more volatile, risky stocks to buy less volatile and less risky bonds. You would expect to sacrifice a bit of return to keep volatility a bit in check. When stock m...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4833

Re: [Merriman] Why Vanguard Total Stock Market isn’t the bes

Nisiprius, I will take a stab at answering your question. A total US Stock Market portfolio is still dominated by the very large mega-caps. The top 100 holdings are a tiny bit over 50% of the market weight of the whole index. So a Total Market Index holds over 3,300 stocks but the performance is lar...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 155
Views: 18562

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Here is another fund from the same company. It had a rough performance patch and I sold it just before it started a long run of outperforming the S&P 500. This fund was started in 1959 and has had the same team running it for many years. This fund follows an earnings acceleration approach first ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 107
Views: 8987

Re: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom

My bond investments sailed through the 2008-2009 crisis because I own the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, GNMA funds, and core bond funds which hold investment grade intermediate term bonds. My core bond funds have investments in treasuries. So someone who was broadly diversified in good bond fund...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Tony Robbins Book on Financial Freedom
Replies: 85
Views: 16483

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

http://i61.tinypic.com/sxm655.png Here is a particular mutual fund that I have been aware of for several years. The manager is a former B-2 Bomber pilot who has excellent quant skills and he is backed up by quant analysts and powerful computers. The fund is designed to capture price momentum first ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 107
Views: 8987

Re: The dream of a perfect plan.

Is now DEC 2014 a good time to invest in a Reit Index Fund such as Vanguard Reit Index fund VGSTX? Or, is it at such a high it will likely just drop in the next years? Riptide: This is a post you made last month: After all the back and forth, I am still at a simple portfolio 4 core and my goal is t...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1789

Re: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?

Is now DEC 2014 a good time to invest in a Reit Index Fund such as Vanguard Reit Index fund VGSTX? Or, is it at such a high it will likely just drop in the next years? Hi Riptide, I have loved REITs for years, have owned them, and still own them. Traditionally, these have yielded 6-8% in dividends ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1789

Re: Energy sector

Oil has gone from 110+ down to 65 in a few months. Is it time to overweight the energy sector? I can think of a lot dumber things people can do with their money. The problem is that the price of oil and other commodities could go down a lot more. But I like the fact you are thinking things through ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 13, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4192

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Oil’s stunning price collapse is undoubtedly one of 2014’s top stories and will remain a major theme for investors in 2015. Indeed, oil futures CLF5, +0.87% have plunged 38% from the beginning of the year, including carnage in Wednesday trading that saw oil trade in the $60...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 91
Views: 8350

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I tilt to small, value, and REIT. I think the evidence supports it over the long run. Whether it works out for me depends on my start and end dates, but unlike someone cherry picking the data, I Can't use hindsight. It may work or it may not. Any of us could be in the cohort with start/end dates wh...
by nedsaid
Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8766

Re: Just found old small IRA! Are we in Backdoor trouble?

If your old IRA was non-deductible, no problem. Just convert that to a ROTH as well. If it was deductible, you will owe a tiny bit of tax and might need to amend prior year returns. Edit: seeing this was in a money market, you have probably almost zero earnings. Consult your IRS form 8606, Roth conv...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just found old small IRA! Are we in Backdoor trouble?
Replies: 8
Views: 858

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

I am doing well to just be in Emerging Markets much less Emerging Markets Value. I suppose I am an asset class collector but even a slicer and dicer like me has limits. You can only cut the pizza in so many slices before you have a situation where any one slice will make no meaningful difference in ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2125

Re: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?

For the record, Vanguard's publicly stated reason for the change in 2006 is that they originally expected target-date funds to attract investors who were more risk-averse than the average investor, and therefore they accordingly pegged the funds to a conservative allocation... and that with several...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?
Replies: 39
Views: 2711

Re: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?

I am 55 years old and thought I was hanging way out there in terms of risk with an approximately 70% stock and a 30% bond portfolio. Imagine my surprise when I checked out the Vanguard 2025 fund and found they had just about the same asset allocation as I had!! The question could be asked, why is a ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?
Replies: 39
Views: 2711

Re: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard

This goes to show why I don't believe in either/or financial solutions. The Bogleheads forum and Vanguard are mostly built on the "do-it-yourself" and keep costs rock-bottom through indexing philosophy. I somewhat agree on the first point and mostly agree on the second. The problem is that...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 1646
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