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Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

My guess is that Wellington is value oriented and captured much of the value premium that the Merriman portfolio did. My next guess is that Wellington's bond portfolio outperformed the Merriman bond portfolio. Merriman sticks to Treasuries where Wellington branched out into corporates, mortgage back...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: "Boring High-Quality Bonds and Why You Need Them"

Boring bonds after a disappointing 2013 did what they were supposed to in 2014. During the very recent stock market correction (it did hit a 10% correction intraday), boring bonds went up while the stock market was going down. Bonds yielding 2-3% offer less stock market downside protection than bond...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Boring High-Quality Bonds and Why You Need Them"
Replies: 1
Views: 217

Re: 401k millionaire

Wish I was there but I am not. If you add in IRA's, I might get there someday as long as I keep contributing and the markets work their magic. My strategy has been to save as much as I can as early as I can and keep my expenses low. I have not made big salaries since my career has been mostly in the...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k millionaire
Replies: 14
Views: 1774

Re: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "cras

It was an amazing October. A lot of volatility both up and down. People wondering if this was going to be a correction or something worse. The market dropped 10% from its peak intraday, it was like someone rung a bell. The market had its 10% correction even if it was momentary, and then dutifully re...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "crash"
Replies: 49
Views: 3434

Re: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and ra

I haven't gone to 40% yet, I am at 30%, but get nervous when the market goes down everyday. In studying the tsp it appears it is much better to invest in the F fund than G for returns. I looked at the last 10 years for all the funds and G return is pitiful. F is pretty level with G and better retur...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please take a look at my 'gone fishing' portfolio and rate
Replies: 57
Views: 5022

Re: Jack Bogle on why your retirement plan stinks

Excessive fees are a big problem for 401k's and for retirement plans in general. I have been really fortunate that I have had access to low fee index funds at my work place savings plan and also that the employer picks up the administrative costs. So I am really happy. Too many people get stuck with...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on why your retirement plan stinks
Replies: 13
Views: 1975

Re: Anyone consider retiring to Vancouver, Washington?

I live in Vancouver, WA. There are a few clarifications to be made re: the information upthread, though the general picture is probably right. Does WA have a use tax? yes, equal to the sales tax. But there is no use tax for items consumed in Oregon: think dining out, the ballet, Blazers or Timbers ...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone consider retiring to Vancouver, Washington?
Replies: 26
Views: 1932

Re: Question for AXA Financial Rep

You have every darned right to ask questions as it is your retirement money. My questions would focus on expenses and any value added that AXA can provide. Hopefully he won't try to stick you into a variable annuity, that is my suspicion.
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for AXA Financial Rep
Replies: 9
Views: 379

Re: Jack Bogle: Ignore market headlines

This is one of the first big lessons that an investor needs to learn. My gosh, I have read hundreds if not thousands of predictions of the next big market crash. Many articles on how to survive the next Great Depression. The dollar has died countless times since I started working and yet I gladly ac...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Ignore market headlines
Replies: 11
Views: 1277

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I don't think this applies only to engineers, but complex math is really not involved in most stock selection enterprises, so perhaps part of the(ir) mistake is thinking that the engineering or scientific process carries over to investing in an analogous manner. I think the natural language of inve...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 132
Views: 9505

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

If you want to buy portfolio insurance, this might be the time to do it as prices have declined. The best time to buy asset classes is when they are being relentlessly trashed. If you are interested in commodities as portfolio insurance, it also is time to start looking into these. Contrary thinking...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 64
Views: 8378

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

If you don't base decisions on evidence what do you do? There is no other alternative that is logical This is why the term "evidence-based" is nonsensical. It sounds like marketing-speak to me. If someone told me, "MY system is better because it's evidence-based!", I would not b...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: "Why Bother With Bonds" -- A Gem

Thanks Taylor for posting this. This is a good antidote to the 100% stock threads that are out there. Having bonds and cash in my portfolio really helped me weather the 2000-2002 and the 2008-2009 bear markets. Ganacel, the role of TIPS in your portfolio is to protect against unexpected inflation. I...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Bother With Bonds" -- A Gem
Replies: 15
Views: 2319

Re: “Risk and Return Within the Stock Market: What Works Bes

I always believed that Value stocks were less risky because of low market expectations. This reminds me of a thread I started back in March of 2013: Two kinds of value stocks . One of the points I brought up was that (perhaps) some value stocks are priced lower because speculators are less interest...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Risk and Return Within the Stock Market: What Works Best?”
Replies: 18
Views: 2056

Re: I Strayed From The Path...Forgive Me.

A lot of us dipped out toes into the water of buying individual stocks, especially during the latter 1990s when the direction of everything was up. Then 1999 came along and we that stocks drop too. There's nothing wrong with playing around a bit if you have sufficient resources, though, and even se...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Strayed From The Path...Forgive Me.
Replies: 34
Views: 5506

Re: "Schwab Intelligent Portfolios"

This is something that might appeal to me. As I get older, I may decide that I don't want to spend the time managing my investments anymore. It seems to me though, you could do the same with something like a Target Risk fund. There is something in me that wants interaction with a live person. A cust...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Schwab Intelligent Portfolios"
Replies: 40
Views: 2606

Re: MS Windows 7 Dead?

I don't understand the negative tone of the article. My computer geek guys who build my computers recommended Windows 7 and to skip Windows 8. Windows 7 is very stable and reliable and basically a good update to Windows XP. I was a big fan of Windows XP. I want an operating system that is very stabl...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MS Windows 7 Dead [in 2020]?
Replies: 23
Views: 1681

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

Three issues here that have to be considered separately. If you combine these issues as one rather than thinking about them separately, then the result is rather muddled thinking. The three issues are economically cyclical stocks, cycles in the markets as a whole, and secular bull and bear markets. ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 52
Views: 4968

Re: Individual investors behaving badly

I want to give credit where credit is due, a lot of what I post I learned from "Broker Number 4", an Investment broker that I followed from a major brokerage firm to another firm where he is now independent. He has been in the industry for over 30 years and is about my age. It is nice to h...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual investors behaving badly
Replies: 18
Views: 2654

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

Rick FWIW IMO you are WAY off base on this one. First many people use that term. You yourself make decisions based on the evidence from peer reviewed journals. All it means is that the advice isn't based on opinions, but evidence, facts. It's totally different than smart beta which is purely a mark...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

His approach is evidence-based I don't buy into the term "evidence based" investing. It means there is evidence in the past data to support past results. Isn't that true for everything? Long-term bonds have yield more than short-term bonds, therefore there is evidence that they may yield ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

Stocks do have an intrinsic fundamental value. Warren Buffett made a comment to the effect that when you are buying a stock or bond, what you are really buying is a set of cash flows. A growing cash flow will be priced at higher multiples than a steady or decreasing cash flow. In extreme cases, a co...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1964

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I am a big fan of Paul Merriman. I went to a couple seminars put on by Tom Cock. I also got a one-hour telephone consultation with one of his advisors. I have not met Paul or talked to him by phone, but I will say that the guy is the real deal. I chose not to invest with his firm but I took many of ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Doesn't Vanguard just divide the S&P 500 in half by P/E and call the low P/E companies the S&P 500 Value Fund/ETF and the high P/E companies the S&P 500 Growth Fund/ETF? No, they don't do that at all. The S&P 500 has nothing to do with their core investor value/growth funds (they do...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2041

Re: “Risk and Return Within the Stock Market: What Works Bes

I am glad to see academic research confirm things that I knew or suspected for years. Not that I am a particularly keen observer of the markets, but if you have investments and follow them, there are certain things you can't keep from noticing. Larry Swedroe said, I’d add that we also see this pheno...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Risk and Return Within the Stock Market: What Works Best?”
Replies: 18
Views: 2056

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Re Book Value Book Value = (Assets - Liabilities) / number of shares in issue What I call Net Asset Value per share (I think the Book number is US GAAP usage, in IFRS/ UK GAAP it is called Net Asset Value). That's important. A lot of high book to market (low price to book) shares are heavily indebt...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2041

Re: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service

The software is getting to be quite good. I was getting robo-calls from a particular company and it was almost human. Depending on what you would say, the computer would give a customized response. The voice sounded human but with the pauses and such, you could tell you were not talking to a live pe...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 27
Views: 3353

Re: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?

Subham, I think you paid very expensive tuition learning about investments. You are lucky in that you did further research and found out that you could do better. Many people invest with such firms and advisors for years not realizing what this costs them. You found out early on!! Years ago, I did h...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?
Replies: 104
Views: 7973

Re: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?

I have a small value tilt and I own REITs and am not changing a thing. In recent posts, I have been expressing valuation concerns about both small value and REITs and have been less enthusiastic about this approach. Recently, the Vanguard Small Value Index had a forward P/E of 17 (I own the ETF). RE...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?
Replies: 37
Views: 1664

Re: Should I buy more REITs?

I think 17% of your portfolio in REITs is too much. Have you been reading the threads and comments by Swedroe and Bernstein about valuations? There is a lot of concern out there that REITs are pretty richly valued. I kept what I own and have been buying them with 10% of my new funds for investment t...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy more REITs?
Replies: 44
Views: 4069

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

To OP: I think as engineers we develop an unconscious tendency towards trying to reduce every system down to a few control variables, and then try to use those few variables to control or predict the system's behavior. That's mostly what we are trained to do. Where we go wrong is in identifying ver...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 132
Views: 9505

Re: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds

I remember that the concentrated funds were all the rage in the 1990's, the idea being that a good stock picker is only going to have so many good ideas. I don't think this idea has gone away, these type of funds still exist. The public can put its attention only on a limited number of ideas so you ...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1748

Re: are pension plans disciplined investors?

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/23615-swedroe-investor-mistakes-writ-large.html They have reputation for disciplined rebalancers, but is it true? There is nothing stopping an individual from rebalancing by buying stocks when they are down a lot, but how can a large class of instit...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are pension plans disciplined investors?
Replies: 5
Views: 897

Re: Stocks as long term investments

Iper, we certainly didn't change the subject. I think everyone else lost interest including the original poster. Thanks for your comments.
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 57
Views: 4805

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I have known engineers in my lifetime but I neglected to ask them how they invested their money. So I have to go by what other posters have said here. I suppose people with very strong math backgrounds would tend to believe that successful investing is all about math, that everything can be explain...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 132
Views: 9505

Re: Stocks as long term investments

An advantage to individual stocks is that you know what you own. An active mutual fund can do "window dressing" near the end of the quarter to make it look like they owned the hot stocks that everyone loves. In reality, these hot stocks may have been in the portfolio only for a few days an...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 57
Views: 4805

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I have known engineers in my lifetime but I neglected to ask them how they invested their money. So I have to go by what other posters have said here. I suppose people with very strong math backgrounds would tend to believe that successful investing is all about math, that everything can be explaine...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 132
Views: 9505

Re: are pension plans disciplined investors?

Institutional managers are human too!! Who knew?

I would expect to see the professionals make fewer mistakes than the average investor. It is reassuring that professional money managers at major institutions are human too. Yes, I have let my asset allocation drift too.
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are pension plans disciplined investors?
Replies: 5
Views: 897

Re: Stocks as long term investments

You Iper, have more time on your hands and more knowledge about stock investing than most, and I certainly don't have time or knowledge to research the best 50-90 stock companies to invest, so I am with the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSAX. I am becoming more peaceful with the index fund com...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 57
Views: 4805

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

I DO own bond funds but in a smaller proportion than I would like to have for somebody my age. My asset allocation has been approximately 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash for a while. I feel like I am hanging way out there risk wise. But I share the concerns that others have about bonds, there mig...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7977

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

I DO own bond funds but in a smaller proportion than I would like to have for somebody my age. My asset allocation has been approximately 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash for a while. I feel like I am hanging way out there risk wise. But I share the concerns that others have about bonds, there migh...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7977

Re: How to think about expected returns--continuing discussi

I am not a quant. In college, I got a D and C in Calculus and I worked pretty darned hard for that D. But I do respect numbers, ratios, statistical analysis. I am an accountant so I work with numbers. It is just that I understand the limitations. So while I have opined that successful investing is m...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to think about expected returns--continuing discussion
Replies: 105
Views: 8331

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

My firm conviction was that interest rates would go up. So I was wrong. But I did nothing about my conviction because I am often wrong, at least in the short term, and because I will be reinvesting the dividends from my bond funds for some time to come. My fixed income strategy is to invest in Inves...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3950

Re: Stocks as long term investments

Michael, I have read your various threads and the problem is that as an investor, you have no core beliefs or core investment philosophies. This isn't to put you down as you are a new investor and probably none of us did either when we started out. We just sort of fumbled around until we learned mo...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 57
Views: 4805

Re: Low cost Commodities/Natural Resources options

So looks like commodities and natural resources have gotten crushed lately. Was thinking of potentially adding them to my portfolio. I invest through Fidelity, what good low cost fund or EFT options are available if any? I am aware of the simple three fund portfolio option, I prefer to do it a litt...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low cost Commodities/Natural Resources options
Replies: 3
Views: 378

Re: Windows XP

I upgraded from Windows XP in March. It was an old and increasingly vulnerable operating system, without the security patches from Microsoft people still using it are just asking for trouble. At work, I had the infamous FBI Moneypack virus come right in through the browser. It took advantage in a fl...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP
Replies: 62
Views: 2959

Re: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?

As Nancy Reagan might say, "Just say no to bond alternatives." During the recent turmoil, bonds did what they were supposed to. As stocks went down, bonds went up while still throwing off interest income. They provided ballast to a portfolio, reducing volatility and dampening losses. The B...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?
Replies: 35
Views: 2177

Re: Dry Powder

I actually like the idea of dry powder to have money available in order to buy on the dips in the stock market. The problem is that dry powder or cash pays almost nothing. A few years ago, the money market fund at my favorite mutual fund company paid 1 cent in interest for a month. In disgust, I liq...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3528

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

This is a very interesting discussion. I don't know what retirement withdrawal strategy that I will take because retirement is 8-10 years off and there are too many unknowns. As of now the plan goes something like this. If work is rewarding, keep working until my Social Security retirement age at ag...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2838

Re: Health care tilt

Health care is a very attractive area to invest in imo. One can argue it is just another sector in the economy, but I would argue that health care is different. A few reasons: The health care industry is very stable, tremendously important, and tends to not to be as correlated to the general econom...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health care tilt
Replies: 77
Views: 3801
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