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by nedsaid
Fri May 22, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing the 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 464

Re: Fixing the 401k

A couple of other things that would help would be access to advice for zero or low cost to plan participants and also offering the low-cost broad index funds as investment options.
by nedsaid
Fri May 22, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the world is "upside down"
Replies: 5
Views: 1056

Re: the world is "upside down"

A big part of whatever success I have had as an investor has been the refusal to chase returns. I have had a value orientation my entire investing career and that has helped. It really helped that I didn't chase the high tech boom of the later 1990's. I had some investments in this sector but I was ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing the 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 464

Re: Fixing the 401k

How to fix the 401k? Seeing that these and other workplace savings plans are replacing pensions, the first question to be asked is why not invest these like pensions? The implication of this would be to make the default option a boring old 60/40 balanced fund, a moderate risk target risk fund, or a ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multiple Account Management
Replies: 30
Views: 973

Re: Multiple Account Management

For what it is worth, I manage my accounts pretty much the same. My retirement accounts look like this: ZZZ Mutual Fund Company IRA (I manage this as a Moderate Risk Portfolio) Workplace Savings Plan (I manage this as a Moderate Risk Portfolio) Brokerage IRA (A quirky portfolio, I buy stuff here tha...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age 56, Need Asset Allocation Advice
Replies: 16
Views: 994

Re: Age 56, Need Asset Allocation Advice

Lost: I am about your age (a couple of years ahead of you). I take a somewhat contrarian view here at BH - during your accumulation phase (working years), I think there are only two determining factors for asset allocation: 1. Can you sleep well at night? 2. Would a 40% market drop cause you to cha...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 27
Views: 1245

Re: Market Cap and Value

Nedsaid: Oh my gosh. My secret is out. Toto has pulled back the curtain and the mighty Nedsaid is just a man bellowing into a microphone and pulling some levers. Yep, I pretty much eye-ball it. I also take a look at market sentiment. I have admitted to "investing by feel." I am sure that ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 27
Views: 1245

Re: Market Cap and Value

I do want to say that numbers in business and in investing are very useful if not vital. I remember a fellow who was in the wholesale sewing machine business. He was a very good businessman and an intelligent guy but he did get outside help from his CPA. His CPA got him to put in a computerized inve...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 27
Views: 1245

Re: Market Cap and Value

Thanks nedsaid for your super interesting reply. I like what you said about narrative vs. numbers. Having numbers without a story behind them is not enough to go on as an investor. I don't like most of the factors in the great factor zoo because I don't buy the stories behind them. Take momentum: Y...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me help my retired father -- preferred stocks
Replies: 12
Views: 836

Re: Help me help my retired father -- preferred stocks

I have never owned preferred stocks. My best guess is that their performance characteristics would be a lot like plain old bonds but with more risk than bonds. There is an interest rate risk here, if interest rates go up he would likely see his preferred stocks drop in value. My guess that they are ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2695

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Bob, you are a very knowledgeable poster. Why not post a market outlook and what we should be doing with our money? For example, are stocks and bonds overvalued? Perhaps you could comment on those things in detail that Mr. Asness didn't mention. Perhaps some thoughts on asset allocation. For example...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2695

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Maynard, I am a firm believer that having "skin in the game" increases your incentive for learning. I really don't know as much as I should about hedge funds, long/short funds, and absolute return funds because I have never owned one. Not having money on the line, or skin in the game, I ha...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2695

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Perhaps because TIPS didn't exist during most inflation shocks. We know what they should do, but reality is sometimes different. That said, if anything one might imagine people piling into TIPS and bidding down the yields, giving you returns above inflation in the short term. Real bonds existed in ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: W. Buffett can earn 50% return, why don't you?
Replies: 31
Views: 2865

Re: W. Buffett can earn 50% return, why don't you?

TS, 1) I am not WB. 2) If you like WB so much, why don't you invest 100% on BRK stock?? Why do anything else?? KlangFool I don't own BRK stock because I didn't have the foresight to start buying in 1962 when Warren Buffett started buying. Of course, I was three years old at the time. By the time Mr...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 27
Views: 1245

Re: Market Cap and Value

Backpacker, don't get yourself too frustrated trying to understand all of this. One of the problems with the academic studies and all the number crunching is that after a while you start seeing what you want to see in the numbers. In other words, it is very difficult to be completely objective when ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: W. Buffett can earn 50% return, why don't you?
Replies: 31
Views: 2865

Re: W. Buffett can earn 50% return, why don't you?

...I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that... Dear Mr. Buffett. Enclosed please find $1,000,000. I will expect your check for $1,500,000 on May 21st, 2016. If you make more than that, you may keep the extra for yourself. Is Warren Buffett a televangel...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2695

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

With regard to inflation shocks Asness notes that is really bad for bonds and not good for stocks at least in the SR. He then claims that commodities are the only good asset class, if there is an inflation shock. Apparently, Asness has never heard of real bonds such as TIPS. :) BobK This is a good ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: W. Buffett can earn 50% return, why don't you?
Replies: 31
Views: 2865

Re: W. Buffett can earn 50% return, why don't you?

Warren Buffett has a talent for making the complex simple and explaining things to ordinary folks. The problem is that what Warren Buffett does is very difficult. If it were all so easy, each of us Bogleheads would be running our own mini-Berkshire-Hathaways. We aren't and we don't. Instead, we have...
by nedsaid
Thu May 21, 2015 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2695

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Maynard, it sounds like you might have better access to hedge fund and absolute return type vehicles in the UK than what we have here in the States. David Swenson at Yale really got interest in alternative type of investments rolling. He had a lot of success at this but those who tried to emulate hi...
by nedsaid
Wed May 20, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2695

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Mr Asness has been in the news a lot lately expressing his views on several subjects. Here are two of my favorite recent articles about Cliff and his opinions on subjects that have at least a substantial financial component. The last sentence of this first article is classic. [OT link removed by ad...
by nedsaid
Wed May 20, 2015 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: keep advisor or do it myself
Replies: 59
Views: 4704

Re: keep advisor or do it myself

Winsome, we should look at the big picture. I like to run my portfolio through the Morningstar X-Ray to see what really is in there. Your advisor should have done this for you, they often have Morningstar software. What is your asset allocation? What are the percentages of US Stocks, International S...
by nedsaid
Wed May 20, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: keep advisor or do it myself
Replies: 59
Views: 4704

Re: keep advisor or do it myself

Contrary to what many of you might think, I am a very good client. My calls to him seem to center on tax issues from time to time and other odd queries. I don't try to micro-manage the account; ups and downs don't bother me - never have. This is the stock market for heaven's sake. I'm beginning to ...
by nedsaid
Wed May 20, 2015 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The BIG problem with the S&P 500 index?
Replies: 37
Views: 5946

Re: The BIG problem with the S&P 500 index?

There are "problems" with the S&P 500 Index but they are so minor that they don't affect an investor in the real world. The index represents about 75% of the market capitalization of the US Total Stock Market and is a sample of 500 against maybe 3,300 investable stocks in the US Stock...
by nedsaid
Wed May 20, 2015 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: keep advisor or do it myself
Replies: 59
Views: 4704

Re: keep advisor or do it myself

I think advisor person is acting according to DFA philosophy and trying to grab a little bit of everything, which is what they tout. Our portfolio: bonds - VG High Yield Corp, VG Inflation and VG Total Bond. Equities: DFA Emerging Markets Core, DFA Intl Small Co, DFA Large Intl, DFA Tax Mgt Intl, D...
by nedsaid
Mon May 18, 2015 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at why it's important to globally diversify
Replies: 9
Views: 1414

Re: Another look at why it's important to globally diversify

Larry: Thank you for sharing your article about the importance of international diversification. The Japanese bear-market experience could happen to the United States. Best wishes. Taylor I have believed in international diversification for years, Japan is exhibit A as to why this is important. Lar...
by nedsaid
Sun May 17, 2015 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ? Portfolio for older couple
Replies: 11
Views: 2477

Re: ? Portfolio for older couple

I think what you have is just fine. Seeing that you only need about a third of your required minimum distributions to live on is the deciding factor in my advice. A 50/50 stocks/bonds portfolio is appropriate for retired people. 40/60 would be fine also. Another factor is that you are investing not ...
by nedsaid
Sun May 17, 2015 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: has anyone seen an noticeable difference from vitamins and supps?
Replies: 5
Views: 654

Re: has anyone seen an noticeable difference from vitamins and supps?

You have to buy quality supplements for this to help you. Grocery store vitamins just don't do it. I have mild asthma and taking good supplements reduced the effect by 80-90%. Before, I felt like I had bronchitis all the time and by the end of the work week I was pretty exhausted. The vitamin supple...
by nedsaid
Sun May 17, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Practical Applications for William Bernstein's Deep Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 1365

Re: Practical Applications for William Bernstein's Deep Risk

Another problem with all of this is that Dr. Bernstein seems to be changing his thinking. In his book that you are reading, he advocates a Small/Value tilted portfolio. If you have read his recent posts, he seems to be moving towards a three fund portfolio: US Total Stock Market, Total International...
by nedsaid
Sun May 17, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Practical Applications for William Bernstein's Deep Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 1365

Re: Practical Applications for William Bernstein's Deep Risk

It would depend on what your expectations are. The Permanent Portfolio fund dropped less than 20% during the 2008-2009 bear market. That still might be too much volatility for some people. Also, the portfolio had less upside than you would expect with the big rally afterwards in stocks. Less downsid...
by nedsaid
Sun May 17, 2015 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Practical Applications for William Bernstein's Deep Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 1365

Re: Practical Applications for William Bernstein's Deep Risk

The "Permanent" or "All Weather" portfolio is the investor's equivalent to Ponce de Leon's Fountain of Youth. A portfolio that will do okay no matter what the markets throw at it. A portfolio that will give you a smoother ride than a standard stock and bond portfolio. Like the fo...
by nedsaid
Sun May 17, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2695

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Boy, not too encouraging. Stocks are expensive and bonds are expensive. Mr. Asness projects a future expected real return of 2.5% on a stock and bond portfolio. Save more, work longer, spend less. Not really what I want to hear. I certainly do agree with him on the importance of being diversified gl...
by nedsaid
Sat May 16, 2015 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My 457(b)
Replies: 13
Views: 918

Re: My 457(b)

Hello all, I am hoping that I can get some good advice on how to allocate investments in my Voya 457(b) deferred compensation account. I am a 26 year old who works for Multnomah County in Portland, Oregon. I currently make about $73,000 a year, and have about $11,000 in debt that I am working on pa...
by nedsaid
Sat May 16, 2015 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overlooked Big Picture Concepts
Replies: 1
Views: 428

Re: Overlooked Big Picture Concepts

The really big picture is that once you stop working, your investment portfolio and other life savings are matched up against a very uncertain future. There are an unlimited number of things that can go wrong in retirement and I cannot think of any retirement plan that will cover them all. What we d...
by nedsaid
Sat May 16, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The BIG problem with the S&P 500 index?
Replies: 37
Views: 5946

Re: The BIG problem with the S&P 500 index?

There are "problems" with the S&P 500 Index but they are so minor that they don't affect an investor in the real world. The index represents about 75% of the market capitalization of the US Total Stock Market and is a sample of 500 against maybe 3,300 investable stocks in the US Stock ...
by nedsaid
Sat May 16, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forbes article by Wade Pfau: Improving Retirement Outcomes with Investments, Life Insurance, and Income Annuities
Replies: 41
Views: 3305

Re: Forbes article by Wade Pfau: Improving Retirement Outcomes with Investments, Life Insurance, and Income Annuities

I am not an advocate of whole life insurance though there are cases where it might make sense. For most people, buy term and invest the rest seems to be the better solution. The sequence of returns problems for retirees and the advantages of Single Premium Immediate Annuities have been discussed on ...
by nedsaid
Sat May 16, 2015 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?
Replies: 50
Views: 4894

Re: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?

I substituted my bonds for multi-asset absolute return funds this year (with a small part in P2P lending) .. My absolute return funds target 5-9%, while P2P lending targets 5-10% (but I am cautious, being a new sector, and may try to get my allocation down to 5%) .. With this mini-sell-off in bonds...
by nedsaid
Sat May 16, 2015 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?
Replies: 56
Views: 4028

Re: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?

I believe that investors should have an allocation to Emerging Markets stocks. In Bill Bernstein's Book, The Three Pillars of Investing, he said that as nations get wealthier that the returns from their stock markets get to be lower and lower. In fact, he made the rather surprising statement that ov...
by nedsaid
Fri May 15, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Timing the Market!
Replies: 30
Views: 2994

Re: Talk me out of Timing the Market!

There is nothing wrong with being a bit nervous. I have been investing for just over 30 years now and I have to admit that the butterflies don't go away with time. Another poster on this thread made a very sensible suggestion. You could dollar cost average into bonds over time, buy FDIC Insured Cert...
by nedsaid
Fri May 15, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too late to invest in Health Care Fund?
Replies: 56
Views: 4335

Re: Too late to invest in Health Care Fund?

I was being a little bit of a smart aleck but we often invest on information that we assume that others don't know. In theory, at least that should be incorporated into stock prices. In the past, I was more of an enthusiast for sector investing. As I have gotten older, it seems like my favorite sect...
by nedsaid
Fri May 15, 2015 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Small Cap
Replies: 24
Views: 1862

Re: International Small Cap

I do like both US and International Mid-Cap/Small-Cap. You will find if you peek under the hood that your "small-cap" funds will have a lot of mid-caps in them. My International Small-Cap ETF has 42% mid-caps according to Morningstar. Mid-Caps are more liquid and easier for a manager to de...
by nedsaid
Fri May 15, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too late to invest in Health Care Fund?
Replies: 56
Views: 4335

Re: Too late to invest in Health Care Fund?

The Baby Boom generation is getting old? Oh man, thanks for the information. Who knew? :happy
by nedsaid
Fri May 15, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What equity market bubble?" asks Scott Grannis
Replies: 12
Views: 1801

Re: "What equity market bubble?" asks Scott Grannis

Uh oh... it's a facile thing to say, and it still doesn't help you time the market and I really do believe that even if you know you are in a a bubble, your best strategy is to stay the course anyway... ...but to me, articles about "Why This Isn't a Bubble" are a pretty good indicator tha...
by nedsaid
Fri May 15, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"
Replies: 46
Views: 4003

Re: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"

I wonder if financial firms have special grammar checkers that auto-hedge all statements to render them vacuously true? Of course it " can provide an added diversification benefit." But will it? And how much? And will it be worth it? My personal opinion is "(shrug) Oh, hey, you know,...
by nedsaid
Fri May 15, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"
Replies: 46
Views: 4003

Re: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"

To me the best argument for an increased International presence in the stock portion of the portfolios is that the United States has a shrinking share of the world stock market. If you want a truly global portfolio, your allocation to International Stocks should reflect that. One would suppose so, ...
by nedsaid
Thu May 14, 2015 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"
Replies: 46
Views: 4003

Re: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"

I am surprised that Vanguard upped the International Allocations for its Target Date and LifeStrategy Portfolios for both stocks and bonds. This would have been based on careful research, my guess is that Vanguard will say that a more global portfolio will be less volatile, giving investors a smooth...
by nedsaid
Wed May 13, 2015 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replace timing belt on old car with multiple issues?
Replies: 13
Views: 1203

Re: Replace timing belt on old car with multiple issues?

Some models are fairly low cost to keep up well past 200k miles. Don't know about VWs however. Burning a quart every 2k is not a problem. The car guys once told a listener that a quart every fill up was not a problem. Have you checked the transmission fluid level? If so and its OK, you would need t...
by nedsaid
Wed May 13, 2015 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4485

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

I am in the value camp. I have been a value oriented investor my entire investing career. It just makes sense to buy things when they go on sale. I am not only in the value camp but I also believe that value is a behavioral story. I don't dismiss the risk story but the arguments I have seen are in ...
by nedsaid
Tue May 12, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4485

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

Yes, price to book is an important measure of value. But stocks are mostly valued by their cash flows and not by asset value. For example, Microsoft has net assets (assets minus liabilities) of $90 Billion. According to the accountants, this is what you have left after you add up all the assets and ...
by nedsaid
Tue May 12, 2015 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch
Replies: 12
Views: 2324

Re: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch

...Bad things, in fact terrible things happen in the markets but markets historically have always rebounded... Of 23 national stock markets covered by Dimson & al in Triumph of the Optimists and the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbooks , 2 of them went to zero and did not rebound. ...
by nedsaid
Tue May 12, 2015 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replace timing belt on old car with multiple issues?
Replies: 13
Views: 1203

Re: Replace timing belt on old car with multiple issues?

You have both engine and transmission issues. You have some very expensive repair bills in your future. If it were me, I would get rid of the car. If both engine and transmission were running great, I would replace the timing belt. I have driven old cars a lot. One I kept until it was 30 years old. ...
by nedsaid
Tue May 12, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Investors Should Stop Trying to Beat The Market"
Replies: 16
Views: 1915

Re: "Why Investors Should Stop Trying to Beat The Market"

In the article, it says: ...the average investor makes bad moves when it comes to market timing. People tend to pile into a hot investment as it is peaking, and they stampede back out when it turns south. Rather than achieving the desired effect of maximizing returns, attempts at market timing gene...

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