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Re: Stocks as long term investments

An advantage to individual stocks is that you know what you own. An active mutual fund can do "window dressing" near the end of the quarter to make it look like they owned the hot stocks that everyone loves. In reality, these hot stocks may have been in the portfolio only for a few days an...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 52
Views: 3519

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I have known engineers in my lifetime but I neglected to ask them how they invested their money. So I have to go by what other posters have said here. I suppose people with very strong math backgrounds would tend to believe that successful investing is all about math, that everything can be explaine...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 107
Views: 5937

Re: are pension plans disciplined investors?

Institutional managers are human too!! Who knew?

I would expect to see the professionals make fewer mistakes than the average investor. It is reassuring that professional money managers at major institutions are human too. Yes, I have let my asset allocation drift too.
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 24, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are pension plans disciplined investors?
Replies: 2
Views: 249

Re: Stocks as long term investments

You Iper, have more time on your hands and more knowledge about stock investing than most, and I certainly don't have time or knowledge to research the best 50-90 stock companies to invest, so I am with the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSAX. I am becoming more peaceful with the index fund com...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 52
Views: 3519

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

I DO own bond funds but in a smaller proportion than I would like to have for somebody my age. My asset allocation has been approximately 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash for a while. I feel like I am hanging way out there risk wise. But I share the concerns that others have about bonds, there mig...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 47
Views: 6051

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

I DO own bond funds but in a smaller proportion than I would like to have for somebody my age. My asset allocation has been approximately 70% stocks and 30% bonds and cash for a while. I feel like I am hanging way out there risk wise. But I share the concerns that others have about bonds, there migh...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 47
Views: 6051

Re: How to think about expected returns--continuing discussi

I am not a quant. In college, I got a D and C in Calculus and I worked pretty darned hard for that D. But I do respect numbers, ratios, statistical analysis. I am an accountant so I work with numbers. It is just that I understand the limitations. So while I have opined that successful investing is m...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to think about expected returns--continuing discussion
Replies: 73
Views: 5389

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

My firm conviction was that interest rates would go up. So I was wrong. But I did nothing about my conviction because I am often wrong, at least in the short term, and because I will be reinvesting the dividends from my bond funds for some time to come. My fixed income strategy is to invest in Inves...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 21
Views: 2579

Re: Stocks as long term investments

Michael, I have read your various threads and the problem is that as an investor, you have no core beliefs or core investment philosophies. This isn't to put you down as you are a new investor and probably none of us did either when we started out. We just sort of fumbled around until we learned mo...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 52
Views: 3519

Re: Low cost Commodities/Natural Resources options

So looks like commodities and natural resources have gotten crushed lately. Was thinking of potentially adding them to my portfolio. I invest through Fidelity, what good low cost fund or EFT options are available if any? I am aware of the simple three fund portfolio option, I prefer to do it a litt...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low cost Commodities/Natural Resources options
Replies: 3
Views: 365

Re: Windows XP

I upgraded from Windows XP in March. It was an old and increasingly vulnerable operating system, without the security patches from Microsoft people still using it are just asking for trouble. At work, I had the infamous FBI Moneypack virus come right in through the browser. It took advantage in a fl...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP
Replies: 61
Views: 2504

Re: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?

As Nancy Reagan might say, "Just say no to bond alternatives." During the recent turmoil, bonds did what they were supposed to. As stocks went down, bonds went up while still throwing off interest income. They provided ballast to a portfolio, reducing volatility and dampening losses. The B...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2nd Opinions on Bond Alternatives?
Replies: 34
Views: 1923

Re: Dry Powder

I actually like the idea of dry powder to have money available in order to buy on the dips in the stock market. The problem is that dry powder or cash pays almost nothing. A few years ago, the money market fund at my favorite mutual fund company paid 1 cent in interest for a month. In disgust, I liq...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3514

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

This is a very interesting discussion. I don't know what retirement withdrawal strategy that I will take because retirement is 8-10 years off and there are too many unknowns. As of now the plan goes something like this. If work is rewarding, keep working until my Social Security retirement age at ag...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2755

Re: Health care tilt

Health care is a very attractive area to invest in imo. One can argue it is just another sector in the economy, but I would argue that health care is different. A few reasons: The health care industry is very stable, tremendously important, and tends to not to be as correlated to the general econom...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health care tilt
Replies: 77
Views: 3707

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing

If that doesn't work, then just do it for Jack. Huh? Why should Jack [Bogle, I assume?] care whether you rebalance *your* accounts. He says he doesn't rebalance his own, but even if he did, what difference does it make to him whether you do? Are you naming him in your will? I am joking. Mr. Bogle h...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing
Replies: 24
Views: 1845

Re: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

This... I like. I still have questions regarding tax efficiency - especially on the bond side, but it seems like no matter WHAT I come up with, it would be more efficient than the portfolio FA suggested. There are many NY Tax exempt bond funds, but I'll be honest. The equities side of all of these ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4531

Re: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

@ retiredjg I chose the mega-cap in an effort to demonstrate the idea (Merriman I think) that the VERY large, and the very small are where most of the value lies in the market, with the middle tending toward the average. So thats how I constructed that portfolio. I certainly tested well :happy Not ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4531

Re: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trust

Greetings all. A few weeks ago I introduced myself as the trustee (and a beneficiary) of three trusts with a value of $6m +-. As I mentioned in that thread, upon my grandmother's passing I became sole trustee of this estate, and realized shortly thereafter that things were a mess. Ive spent the las...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First investment strategy meeting with new FA, $6M trusts
Replies: 80
Views: 4531

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I am a big fan of Paul Merriman and I have used a lot of his suggestions in constructing my portfolio. The case for small/value tilting was pretty compelling to me. The way I look at it is that small/value tilting won't hurt anything. I am unaware of any research that says that large beats small or ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 38
Views: 2260

Re: Stocks as long term investments

I know you guys aren't big fans of investing in individual stocks but i feel some diversification in a few stocks can be good for the long term. My uncle put $8K in J and J in the 80s and was able to pay for my cousins college tuition with his earnings. That said I purchased some shares in Apple an...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 52
Views: 3519

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing

I have been a bit frustrated by this topic. I remember posting in a thread that I rebalanced very infrequently and then defended my position until being beat up with foam rubber hammers by other members of this forum. A rising stock market and a slightly falling bond market in 2013 and being bludgeo...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing
Replies: 24
Views: 1845

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I like the Merriman portfolio, I have been implementing many of its elements since 2007. Mainly, I am small/value tilting. You might choose something other than Vanguard for your Value funds, particularly for small value. I own the Vanguard Small Value Index ETF but it has been criticized for being ...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 38
Views: 2260

Re: Tell me about Berlin :-)

I was in Berlin for a couple of days in May of 2013. I bought a two-day hop-on, hop-off pass and used this as my transportation. It was an enjoyable way to see the city. I spent a lot of time at Checkpoint Charlie and the Checkpoint Charlie Museum. The Checkpoint Charlie Museum was a big highlight o...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tell me about Berlin :-)
Replies: 36
Views: 2317

Re: "The best response to market volatility"

A while back I looked at the tax-loss harvesting moves I've made and the replacement funds I chose always ended up underperforming what I sold to get the tax loss. Personal experience that demonstrates to me at least the best advice is more often than not to do nothing. This is one reason that I ha...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The best response to market volatility"
Replies: 27
Views: 3339

Re: Thoughts on getting out

Could you transition to temporary or contract work for maybe 2,3, or 4 years? It would be a compromise between continuing in a job you hate versus retiring cold turkey. Do you have a career where temporary or contract work is possible? If you could do that, it would take strain off your retirement a...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on getting out [of job]
Replies: 35
Views: 4502

Re: A close look at factors in real world,

Larry Swedroe said, "The value premium is concentrated primarily in small stocks and becomes insignificant in the largest 40 percent of NYSE stocks. This was true in all four 20-year subperiods." This is really interesting. I have often said that I don't consider value investing to be ciga...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A close look at factors in real world,
Replies: 18
Views: 2347

Re: Mid and small cap exposure?

I don't mind people asking even what seem to be basic questions on this forum. The only stupid question is the question you don't ask. It does help to read the Wiki and learn the basics so that your questions can be focused. It is also important for everyone involved to be patient in answering quest...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid and small cap exposure?
Replies: 23
Views: 2278

Re: Losing money, please advise

Don't do anything, you have solid investments. The problem is that you made these investments near the top of the US Stock Market. The market is down about 5% and what we are seeing is normal market behavior. I am guessing you are about 50 years old, you have another 15 years or so before retiring s...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Losing money, please advise
Replies: 36
Views: 5014

Re: Wow at high ER w/Fidelity Freedom funds compared to Vang

I own the Fidelity Freedom 2025 Fund Class K to hold employer contributions that used to go into our now frozen pension plan. I hold it for simplicity's sake. It has a lot of holdings, it's fees are higher than similar offerings from Vanguard, and other flaws noted by other posters. The performance ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wow at high ER w/Fidelity Freedom funds compared to Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 1096

Re: Why choose a LifeStrategy Fund?

Another use of a Life Strategy fund or Target Risk fund is that you can use it as a model portfolio. You also get a look into the thinking of the investment firm. Looking at the Vanguard portfolios, you can see that they believe that International Stocks should be 30% of a stock portfolio and that I...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose a LifeStrategy Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 3503

Re: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz

Larry, this was a very good interview. It was a good review of everything you write about. Repetition is an excellent way to reinforce what one has already learned.

It was a wide ranging discussion and you did a nice job of summarizing the topics you so often write about. An hour very well spent.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz
Replies: 13
Views: 1214

Re: Why choose a LifeStrategy Fund?

Can somebody please explain to me why anyone would purchase a LifeStrategy Fund. The reason I don't understand why someone one is because it keeps a constant asset allocation. I mean the vast majority of investors are going to want to become more conservative as they get older. Why not? That is the...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose a LifeStrategy Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 3503

Re: Current market volatility

You guys think we are in for more declines in the coming weeks? I actually just sold a bunch of my funds after the 2% increase on Wed and havent bought back in yet. I was about to do some rebalancing but im thinking i should maybe hold it in cash until things calm down a bit. My bonds have been doi...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current market volatility
Replies: 21
Views: 1633

Re: Investing Advice

This goes to show that most variable annuities are sold and not bought. Most of these are high fee traps for the small investor and even worse have high withdrawal penalties if taken out early.
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Advice [NYT article on "buying" investment advice]
Replies: 9
Views: 962

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

If you want to time the market, try the "Nedsaid Boglehead 100% stock threads indicator." When you see the 100% stock threads pop up, it is an indication that it is time to rebalance the portfolio. Ditto for the "OMG Bogleheads Bond Crash ahead threads indicator" predicted a pret...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 20451

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

I have made minor changes in my portfolio. First was a mild rebalancing program from stocks to bonds from July 2013 to June 2014. Then more recently, I did mild rebalancing at my favorite mutual fund company from growth to value. When you look at the Morningstar Stylebox for my portfolio, it is esse...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5489

Re: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Fu

Chuck should be applauded for disclosing how he actually invests. When someone gives advice, I like to know what the advisor is doing with his/her own money. A person giving advice should eat his own cooking. He indexes 2/3 of his money and his expenses are 0.14, so what is not to like? Some here wo...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Funds
Replies: 44
Views: 7269

Re: Mid and small cap exposure?

The stock portion of my portfolio has about 39% mid-caps and small-caps, so I am over weighted here versus the US Total Market Index. I am a big believer in mid and small cap exposure. Keep in mind there is a certain amount of cyclicality to this, this area of the market has done really well in rece...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid and small cap exposure?
Replies: 23
Views: 2278

Re: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market

FWIW This makes no sense whatsover, jibberish If people are anxious and want to save more they SAVE more, NOT INVEST MORE, and Shiller is mixing the two up here, if they are anxious they put money into CDs and Treasuries and other safe bonds, not stocks It's the Fed's ZRP that has pushed up real as...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market
Replies: 42
Views: 4607

Re: "Stock Exposure: Grow or Shrink Throughout Retirement?"

I think the tried and true declining glidepath is probably the best for retirees. Oh man, my portfolio is 68% stocks at age 55 and I feel like I am hanging way out there. For me to increase my allocation to stocks when I am in my seventies and eighties seems unthinkable.
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stock Exposure: Grow or Shrink Throughout Retirement?"
Replies: 35
Views: 2721

Re: Sector Funds

In an earlier investment life, I was a lot more enthusiastic about sector investing. I did this through individual stocks. My favorite sectors were finance, telecomm, timber and wood products, health care, and energy. I am less enthusiastic about this approach for several reasons. First, the "s...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sector Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 552

Re: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service

The problem with all of this robo-broker services and automated advice is that one little missing piece of information could dramatically change the advice given. There are any number of personal factors that could affect a personal financial plan. I remember my experience with Financial Engines. It...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 25
Views: 2796

Re: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market

What Shiller is saying goes back to an old Wall Street saying, "The market climbs a wall of worry." You want to see bearishness and pessimism in the markets. That way you have a large pool of people who are underinvested in stocks or perhaps out of the market altogether. That is, you have ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market
Replies: 42
Views: 4607

Re: Bonds Beware

^Classic post. Thanks. How can you do that so early on a beautiful Sunday morning? Did you have this graphic already made and just were waiting for the right opportunity to post it? :) :oops: :oops: :oops: Shame on me for not crediting n00bvestor. It's not mine. That beautiful graphic was made by n...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beware
Replies: 34
Views: 4422

Re: Should small-value investors be buying small value now?

Garland, this is why I have been cooling it on the small and value tilting. I have not changed my portfolio but I have seen that we are in a period of large cap and large growth outperformance. With growth, I think this has been going on for a couple of years. With small caps, we have been seeing un...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should small-value investors be buying small value now?
Replies: 14
Views: 1848

Re: Bonds Beware

I just checked, my asset allocation in my retirement accounts is 68% stocks and 32% bonds and cash. With the recent stock market volatility, bonds did what they were supposed to. They went up as stocks went down. I had been at 69% stocks and 31% bonds and cash. The bond market does concern me, but I...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beware
Replies: 34
Views: 4422

Re: 2014 Harvard U. Annual Endowment Report

Regarding commodities I am not sure what folks were looking for? If I was to buy these, it would be for the purpose of portfolio insurance. The real question is if the insurance is worth the price of the premiums. I have used other methods to hedge inflation in my portfolio. We have had 5+ years of...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 Harvard U. Annual Endowment Report
Replies: 14
Views: 2168

Re: Buffett Has 100% Equities in his Pensions Funds

I'm not being sarcastic as I ask this question, but just curious, what would it take to really see that bonds are a losing proposition and abandon them and swallow hard and take short term risk in stocks for a better outcome in the future. In a way, by ignoring Buffett we are saying we are smarter....
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Has 100% Equities in his Pensions Funds
Replies: 39
Views: 2709

Re: New investor in need of portfolio advice

Thank you JDDS for your response! I updated the stock/bond ratios for the different investments. The cost basis on the Scottrade account is probably closer to $20,000 because I sold $10,000 at one point to pay some of my loans. The MDLOX is the Blackrock Global Allocation A-shares. It's performed f...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 05, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New investor in need of portfolio advice
Replies: 6
Views: 651
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