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Re: Understanding implications of Shiller CAPE on retirement

You, and also me being of similar age and situation are in trouble!
There is an excellent paper with a graph that so closely relates PE10 and 10 year S&P 500 returns, that it is scary. Check for yourself at http://greenbackd.com/2010/06/15/mebane ... e10-ratio/
by mpt follower
Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding implications of Shiller CAPE on retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2315

Re: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular

The issue is as follows: the TIP ladder that matches my annual needs is not consistent with the [ Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) ] (smaller need)... I'm having trouble following you, Erwin. Are you saying that the annual proceeds from the TIPS ladder would be less than the RMD for some years? ...
by mpt follower
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular
Replies: 48
Views: 5762

Re: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular

So what I began doing is that I do set my average annual need during the 30 years in this place [ cell B2, "Desired Annual Real Amount" ], but then in the multiplier column, and as needed, I adjust the multiplier number for each year to match as closely as possible my annual requirements....
by mpt follower
Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular
Replies: 48
Views: 5762

Re: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular

As for your contemplated change to a multiplier - I don't know all of the reasons why you are considering this but I rather like your current "years to cover" feature. I liked the "Years to Cover" column also, MB. But replacing it with a "Multiplier" column makes the s...
by mpt follower
Tue Aug 05, 2014 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular
Replies: 48
Views: 5762

Re: All money in TIPs??

I just turned 66 and my wife is 62. Can I ask you to rework your ideas given this new data?? thank you You are each younger than I guessed since you have both been retired for 10 years. That's why in my previous post, I suggested you consider initially building a TIPS ladder only out to 2029 and th...
by mpt follower
Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All money in TIPs??
Replies: 25
Views: 2784

Re: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular

While I am at it, just fyi as a usage case.... to best meet my needs, I reordered the ladder from earliest to latest to mature, and then added a birthdate input in $B$2 and an age column with formula that depends on $B$2 and column O. Thanks again for the excellent work. MB http://i57.tinypic.com/t...
by mpt follower
Sun Aug 03, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular
Replies: 48
Views: 5762

Re: All money in TIPs??

My wife and I have been retired for 10 years … Yes, but how old are you? This is relevant in determining the longest maturities it makes sense to buy. For example, if you are each over age 70, I wouldn't suggest buying bonds that mature in 30 years. Now my question: if you were my adviser, would yo...
by mpt follower
Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All money in TIPs??
Replies: 25
Views: 2784

Re: All money in TIPs??

Good stuff!
Thank you all.
by mpt follower
Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All money in TIPs??
Replies: 25
Views: 2784

Re: All money in TIPs??

On paper you would be good candidate for a SPIA. I may not have explained my situation well. The reason that I am thinking about a TIPs ladder because it seems to me to be a very adequate retirement strategy. There are people like Zvi Bodie's (http://www.zvibodie.com) from Boston U that feel strong...
by mpt follower
Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All money in TIPs??
Replies: 25
Views: 2784

All money in TIPs??

My wife and I have been retired for 10 years and live very comfortable. Our portfolio is about 25% in a World stock Index (ACWI), 65% in 4 intermediate term total return bond funds, and 10% cash/short term bond funds. Since we live out of SS plus savings, the 10% gets replenished after depletion. My...
by mpt follower
Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All money in TIPs??
Replies: 25
Views: 2784

Re: PE10

Well I have followed PE10 for more than 15 years, and I never used it in the way you or the author are describing. Assume an average PE10 of 16. I assume between PE10 of 12 and 20 PE10 tells me absolutely nothing. Below 12 I get excited to buy stocks. Above PE10 20 I get nervous. Above PE10 25 I de...
by mpt follower
Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10
Replies: 13
Views: 1349

Re: Was ready to pull plug on Janus..until

Not sure if you're being sarcastic, but here you are. JANEX JANIX JANRX JNRFX JNGTX JNTFX JNMCX JNOSX The closest Vanguard Index fund comparison to JANEX is VMGMX. JANEX YTD performance is 4.97% VMGMX YTD performance is 6.81% The closest Vanguard Index fund comparison to JANIX is VSGAX. JANIX YTD p...
by mpt follower
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was ready to pull plug on Janus..until
Replies: 66
Views: 4015

Re: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular

Not criticizing, just asking: Is +0.4% a good deal? It's better than the -0.1% average yield for the 1+ index of all TIPS maturing in more than one year. (See yesterday's update to my thread, Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund .) * However, it's not a good deal when compared t...
by mpt follower
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular
Replies: 48
Views: 5762

Re: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular

I've just updated my spreadsheet to include all four TIPS issued in 2014 and to use prices from the WSJ as of 7/25/2014 . Based on these prices a 30 year X $30,000 ladder can be built for about $828,000 with a weighted average yield-to-maturity of +0.4%. For the link to download the updated spreads...
by mpt follower
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular
Replies: 48
Views: 5762

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

What Faber should have said is that the S&P 500 index, like all passive indices, is "rule based".
by mpt follower
Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3598

Re: Should non-US investors buy US-listed REITS?

Withholding and taxes are NOT the same thing. Review if there is a tax treaties between your country of residence and the US before coming to a conclusion. Further, even if there is not, the taxes inflicted to you in the US can be less that the withholding. I suggest that you check with a CPA in you...
by mpt follower
Fri Jul 18, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should non-US investors buy US-listed REITS?
Replies: 41
Views: 2893

Re: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?

Endless discussions and write ups have pointed to a portfolio that holds about 20% bonds to be less risky and have higher performance. Markowitz did not get the Nobel Prize for nothing! I suggest that you review your knowledge on Modern Portfolio Theory. The theory is based on diversification benef...
by mpt follower
Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?
Replies: 36
Views: 2744

Re: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?

Endless discussions and write ups have pointed to a portfolio that holds about 20% bonds to be less risky and have higher performance. Markowitz did not get the Nobel Prize for nothing! Can you link a post or write up showing that holding 20% bonds can reduce risk and increase performance? I want t...
by mpt follower
Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?
Replies: 36
Views: 2744

Re: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?

Endless discussions and write ups have pointed to a portfolio that holds about 20% bonds to be less risky and have higher performance. Markowitz did not get the Nobel Prize for nothing! Can you link a post or write up showing that holding 20% bonds can reduce risk and increase performance? I want t...
by mpt follower
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?
Replies: 36
Views: 2744

Re: Question Regarding Foreign Assets and Estates

This is a lawyer's question. Some countries have tax treats with the US and it can get very complicated. The best is to go to a lawyer that deals with international taxes in the country where your patents have the assets and make sure that he/she is also fully verse with the US tax laws.
by mpt follower
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question Regarding Foreign Assets and Estates
Replies: 1
Views: 361

Re: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?

The poll question in title is not accurate because of the title restriction. The actual poll is "Do you consider yourself more risk averse than average investors?" Of course, this is a very subjective poll because the poll is asking your perception. It's not asking what your ARA or RRA is...
by mpt follower
Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?
Replies: 36
Views: 2744

Re: Is an expense ratio of 1.07 MUCH better than 1.22?

First pick the allocation, they worry about the tools you use to accomplish it. At your age, if you can withstand the risk, 70% stocks is about right, and 50% seems too low. It can have a HUGE impact on your portfolio long term growth. Now, neither 1.22 nor 1.07 ER is good, does your employer not of...
by mpt follower
Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an expense ratio of 1.07 MUCH better than 1.22?
Replies: 7
Views: 900

Re: Bond Portfolio via ETFs

Gecko10x wrote:I don't like high yield. I also can't recall Swedroe, Ferri, or Bernstein recommending it either.


Ferri does. His recommendation is 40% each total bond and Tips and 20% junk
by mpt follower
Wed Jun 25, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bond Portfolio via ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 426

Re: Bond Portfolio via ETFs

I invest in the same fund for years, thus it seems that in the long run it would make any difference. Good point anyway, thank you.
by mpt follower
Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bond Portfolio via ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 426

Bond Portfolio via ETFs

Bond Portfolio for a Retiree As an alternative to my active portfolio, 40% in Pimco Income (PIMIX) and 40% in Metropolitan West Total Return (discussed in a previous post), plus 15% in cash, I conducted some research in an attempt to arrive at at a "bogleheads" bond portfolio. I reviewed ...
by mpt follower
Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bond Portfolio via ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 426

Vanguard TIPs or Vanguard short term TIPs

What TIPs fund in the bond portfolio? Given today's environment, is it the standard regular, about 8 year duration or the short term, 3.5 year duration?
by mpt follower
Tue Jun 24, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard TIPs or Vanguard short term TIPs
Replies: 5
Views: 394

Re: A day in Dachau?

And yet racism is still very prevailing specially in Europe.
by mpt follower
Mon Jun 23, 2014 1:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A day in Dachau?
Replies: 38
Views: 2785

Re: Torn between active and passive bond funds

Good discussion here. I think why investors use bond index funds such as Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (VBMFX) is because they use it as a proxy for safe assets. Of course, we know that VBMFX is not really risk-free but it's a proxy with low ER of 0.20% (not significantly higher than VTSMX). If y...
by mpt follower
Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torn between active and passive bond funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1339

Re: Torn between active and passive bond funds

If you want a treasury, TIPS or GSE MBS fund then stay indexed and low cost. In terms of rising rates there is no reason to think that bond managers are better than equity manager at timing the market. The expectation of higher rates is built into the steep yield curve. If you think 10y yields are ...
by mpt follower
Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torn between active and passive bond funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1339

Torn between active and passive bond funds

Dear all, For already 30 years, my equity has been allocated to index funds. I have no doubt, have seen the data, and I am very comfortable. However, I am struggling when it comes to bonds. I have owned Pimco Income (PIMIX) and Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX) for many years, since I began sen...
by mpt follower
Sat Jun 21, 2014 2:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torn between active and passive bond funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1339

Re: Any other retirees moving money out of Vanguard?

Although all my equity portfolio (25%) is in passive ETFs, I have opted to go active on bonds. I feel that we are going through transition times which may command some active intervention, and with the other 75% I have built a fixed income portfolio of about 15% in ultra short bonds (which along wi...
by mpt follower
Fri Jun 20, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any other retirees moving money out of Vanguard?
Replies: 54
Views: 6220

Re: Any other retirees moving money out of Vanguard?

Although all my equity portfolio (25%) is in passive ETFs, I have opted to go active on bonds. I feel that we are going through transition times which may command some active intervention, and with the other 75% I have built a fixed income portfolio of about 15% in ultra short bonds (which along wit...
by mpt follower
Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any other retirees moving money out of Vanguard?
Replies: 54
Views: 6220

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

Cjking,
I agree with you. Further, it seems to me that that is exactly what GVAL is hopping by investing in the lowest PE10 countries?
by mpt follower
Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 36
Views: 3649

Re: No BOSVX or DFSVX -- what other SCV choices?

I assume this discussion is to find a way to develop the Larry Portfolio w/o using Dimensional funds. In his latest book, in the conclusions section, Larry recommends the equity portfolio to be 50% US SV, 37.5% International Developed World SV, and 12.5% Emerging Markets V. My preferences for these...
by mpt follower
Tue Jun 03, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No BOSVX or DFSVX -- what other SCV choices?
Replies: 54
Views: 2959

Re: No BOSVX or DFSVX -- what other SCV choices?

I assume this discussion is to find a way to develop the Larry Portfolio w/o using Dimensional funds. In his latest book, in the conclusions section, Larry recommends the equity portfolio to be 50% US SV, 37.5% International Developed World SV, and 12.5% Emerging Markets V. My preferences for these ...
by mpt follower
Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No BOSVX or DFSVX -- what other SCV choices?
Replies: 54
Views: 2959

Re: Total Bond Index Fund and Retirement

PJW: right on!!! People tend to forget that inflation is what typically kills retirement plans.
by mpt follower
Mon Jun 02, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Index Fund and Retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 2011

Re: Will the new currency law impact Vanguard Int'l Value Fu

I live overseas and just filed the FATCA form. It has absolutely nothing to do with holding foreign investments, it is ONLY applicable for individuals holding assets in foreign institutions.
By the way, filing it is a pain since one can ONLY do it via the Internet and must be signed electronically.
by mpt follower
Mon Jun 02, 2014 2:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the new currency law impact Vanguard Int'l Value Fund?
Replies: 6
Views: 1078

I am confused with Swedroe's definition of Correlation

Reading Swedroe's latest book, Reducing the Risk of Black Swans, the author defines positive correlation between two assets as "when one asset produces above average returns (relative to its average) and the other tends to also produce above average returns (relative to its average.)" Obvi...
by mpt follower
Thu May 29, 2014 12:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am confused with Swedroe's definition of Correlation
Replies: 3
Views: 467

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

azonon, In theory the fund makes much sense. I have used PE10 to tilt my equity portfolio (US vs EAFE vs EM) according to this parameter. However, I am yet not sure if it adds much value relative to just buying an all country ETF and be done with. All-in-all, I'm not investing all that much differe...
by mpt follower
Fri May 23, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 36
Views: 3649

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

azonon,
In theory the fund makes much sense. I have used PE10 to tilt my equity portfolio (US vs EAFE vs EM) according to this parameter. However, I am yet not sure if it adds much value relative to just buying an all country ETF and be done with.
by mpt follower
Fri May 23, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 36
Views: 3649

Re: Retirement Fund Options for Person Not from Western Coun

Anyone that can transfer dollars to a US institution can open an account with an american discounter, like Schwab (see http://international.schwab.com/public/ ... _investing). Then invest in ETFs (You will not b able to buy mutual funds) to build a passive, well diversified portfolio.
by mpt follower
Wed May 21, 2014 1:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Fund Options for Person Not from Western Country
Replies: 1
Views: 184

Re: Best way to sell daughter our rental property

Hi folks - I need you thoughts. For 5 years now my daughter and 2 children have rented a condo we bought thinking she and her husband would buy it from us. Well the husband left (thank God) and we are now final ready to make the move to make her the owner, and move soon if possible to get best loan...
by mpt follower
Fri May 16, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to sell daughter our rental property
Replies: 20
Views: 1940

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

I do not understand why people make fun of the question. Look at the thread title: "What a friend said." If said friend had not said what they said, would the OP have even bothered to start this thread? I'm all for reasoned discussion, so start a new thread with some well articulated and ...
by mpt follower
Wed May 14, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6140

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

What about if you are retired like me? I am retired :happy I think it comes down to asset allocation,which for me means having enough in cash,bonds,dividends,cap gains,etc so that I would not need to sell equity funds during a downturn. :happy You may have missed the point. There are ample studies ...
by mpt follower
Wed May 14, 2014 11:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6140

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

What about if you are retired like me?
by mpt follower
Wed May 14, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6140

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

I do not understand why people make fun of the question. After all there are very good reasons to fear a correction. In addition to the actions of the Fed, which at times may not be very helpful, the market is not helping much pushing PE10 dangerously high. One of the jobs of the members of this for...
by mpt follower
Wed May 14, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6140

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

Maybe a bit speculative but my co-worker said that stocks, it seems are about to take a dive. When I asked what would trigger it (unlike 2000 being a dot com bubble and 2008 real estate ... what is the factor now), his answer was that the government is cutting down on printing money and thus this c...
by mpt follower
Wed May 14, 2014 2:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6140

Re: Can I be a boglehead and join a golf club?

Hello Bogleheads: I can't say this is a particularly important financial decision, but I wanted to bounce the situation off the community. Dear spouse and I have agreed  to look into a country club membership. The main reasons are to enjoy golf (me), pool (wife and daughter) and a nice place to eat...
by mpt follower
Sun May 11, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I be a boglehead and join a golf club?
Replies: 70
Views: 4602

Re: Forbes Honor Roll 2014

baw703916 wrote:The Vanguard SV Index fund looks good.
Perhaps the Bridgeway Ultra-small company fund also.

Both of these are driven by asset class exposure, not manager performance.


How do you explain Bridgeway's fund. Forbes Honor Roll, yet M* low mark?
by mpt follower
Fri May 09, 2014 12:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Honor Roll 2014
Replies: 8
Views: 1312
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