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by mpt follower
Thu May 28, 2015 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Power Of An Int'l Bond ETF Like ‘BNDX’
Replies: 6
Views: 595

Re: The Power Of An Int'l Bond ETF Like ‘BNDX’

#Crancher: From your text... "On this basis Vanguard's US bond fund, currently yielding 1.99% looks better than its international bond fund, which currently yields only 0.92%." Does that mean that the international bond fund would yield 0.92% if dividends reinvested and kept to its maturity?
by mpt follower
Wed May 27, 2015 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Power Of An Int'l Bond ETF Like ‘BNDX’
Replies: 6
Views: 595

The Power Of An Int'l Bond ETF Like ‘BNDX’

In a recent article, the claim is being made that given the high likelihood of the Fed increasing rates shortly, that may be it would be wise to park the fixed income portion overseas in an ETF like BNDX. To read the article, see below: http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/power-intl-bond-etf-bndx?utm_s...
by mpt follower
Tue May 26, 2015 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Browser, I think you are ignoring something very important: that the sequence of returns over time is tremendously important when we enter withdrawl phase. A few bad years during the start of drawdown phase can be a portfolio killer. The portfolio can't recover if money needs to be withdrawn at a m...
by mpt follower
Tue May 26, 2015 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Larry will continue to believe -- but will you? You have to try to not kid yourself about this and, whichever, strategy you pick you must be committed to staying the course with that strategy. As for me, I figure I'm more able to tolerate the risk of somewhat larger drawdowns holding a traditional ...
by mpt follower
Tue May 26, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Spidey The "Larry Portfolio" is uses the very same principles as Taleb, with most of the investments in basically riskless (or near riskless) investments, and the rest in the highest expected returning equity asset class--small value stocks. Larry How is this fundamentally different than,...
by mpt follower
Tue May 26, 2015 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Spidey The "Larry Portfolio" is uses the very same principles as Taleb, with most of the investments in basically riskless (or near riskless) investments, and the rest in the highest expected returning equity asset class--small value stocks. Larry How is this fundamentally different than,...
by mpt follower
Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Viking river Cruise - Budapest to Nuremberg
Replies: 11
Views: 1557

Re: Viking river Cruise - Budapest to Nuremberg

A few years ago we did a 7 day Saint Petersburg/Moscow river cruise with the same company you mention. Nothing wrong with the boat or the company, but I would say it in one word: Boring! My opinion is that unless you are handicapped, and we are far from that, there are other much better ways to enjo...
by mpt follower
Fri May 22, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation with large holding in single stock
Replies: 31
Views: 1794

Re: Allocation with large holding in single stock

No doubt it is a highly risky situation. Obviously investing in bonds will dampen the volatility, but I think more important, short of selling some to most of the stock, is to protect their investment against a significant drop in its price. There are many ways, with the most common being to use a p...
by mpt follower
Thu May 21, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iShares FactorSelect MSCI Small-Cap ETFs
Replies: 0
Views: 141

iShares FactorSelect MSCI Small-Cap ETFs

Has anyone reviewed the new series of iShares ETF focusing on Fama factors, specifically the US small cap multifactor ETF (SMLF) and International small cap multifactor ETF (ISCF)?
by mpt follower
Sun May 17, 2015 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: On a Scale of 1 - 10.. [Portfolio evaluation]
Replies: 34
Views: 2300

Re: On a Scale of 1 - 10.. [Portfolio evaluation]

I do not know what you are asking? For a serious discussion on a portfolio construction, you should explains something about your goals, risk tolerance, etc. Otherwise the 1 to 10 evaluation is absolutely meaningless. Start here: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation and maybe here: http:/...
by mpt follower
Sat May 16, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

What is true is that a 24 month put on the S&P 500 is more expensive than a one month put. How much more expensive in real (purchase power/inflation adjusted) terms? And does that account for 24 sets of trade costs to roll monthly compared to just a single trade? And if that were true then its ...
by mpt follower
Sat May 16, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

Dandy,
Do I understand that you did not build the 25 year ladder. If not, why not?
By the way that is what Zvi Bodie has been recommending for a long time, and I am sure the Bernstein has read Bodie's work.
by mpt follower
Sat May 16, 2015 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

I am not familiar with the Prudential retirement red zone. Can you please explain it?
by mpt follower
Sat May 16, 2015 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

To each his own!
I have been retired for 12 years and studied this subject in depth, but I can see that others can have different options, that is what makes this subject so facinating.
by mpt follower
Sat May 16, 2015 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

Forgive me, but I read the different responses and I frankly do not understand. The question is not what is you ideal, optimal, best, most liked, etc., asset allocation, but simply. the "best asset allocation if you've WON THE GAME." Unless I do not understand the meaning of "won the...
by mpt follower
Sat May 16, 2015 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

50/50 forever. Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio recommends just that. 50% in the Vanguard Total Stock Index and 50% in the Vanguard Total Bond Index. What could be easier. Once a year re-balance and go back on the couch and be a potato. But, is this the allocation for someone that WON THE GAME? I...
by mpt follower
Sat May 16, 2015 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

50/50 forever. Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio recommends just that. 50% in the Vanguard Total Stock Index and 50% in the Vanguard Total Bond Index. What could be easier. Once a year re-balance and go back on the couch and be a potato. But, is this the allocation for someone that WON THE GAME? I...
by mpt follower
Fri May 15, 2015 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

Forgive me, but I read the different responses and I frankly do not understand. The question is not what is you ideal, optimal, best, most liked, etc., asset allocation, but simply. the "best asset allocation if you've WON THE GAME." Unless I do not understand the meaning of "won the ...
by mpt follower
Fri May 15, 2015 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Didn't you hear? Gold is going to $5,000!
Replies: 8
Views: 1220

Re: Didn't you hear? Gold is going to $5,000!

Somehow that sounds even worse. More cynical because if your right then he's really talking about inflation. In which case the gold wouldn't really be worth any more, it would just takes more money to buy it. Sure, it 'held' it's value but many other investments would have not only held their value...
by mpt follower
Fri May 15, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

I need to learn more about this Sharpe ratio business... Suggest you start by googling Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and move forward. The Sharpe ratio is better understood if one has a good understanding of MPT. By the way, did you know that the Nobel Prize in economics has been won three times by...
by mpt follower
Fri May 15, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Didn't you hear? Gold is going to $5,000!
Replies: 8
Views: 1220

Re: Didn't you hear? Gold is going to $5,000!

It is important to learn the background of the author to understand his views. Peter Schiff is not stupid, he is a libertarian, associated with the Misses Institute, and as such very much against the existence of the Fed/centralized control of money. In a no Fed system, gold is king, like it was pri...
by mpt follower
Fri May 15, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50 charge to switch IRA from Fidelity to Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 1529

Re: $50 charge to switch IRA from Fidelity to Vanguard

JamesSFO wrote:Is $50 so much that it is worth going through the hassle of two transfers to avoid? If you don't like Fidelity and want Vanguard just move the money once, pay the fee and move on. (just my humble opinion)



Righ on! Do not get hung up on small things
by mpt follower
Fri May 15, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"
Replies: 46
Views: 4101

Re: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"

As an American living overseas, I realized rather quickly that money can also be made outside the US and that has been reflected in my stock allocation for a long time: 90% in Global Stock Index (50/50 US and rest)+ 10% in Emerging Markets Stock Index (because I feel that long term growth with come ...
by mpt follower
Fri May 15, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8497

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

When I retired 12 years ago at the age of 55, and determined that the main goal of my portfolio was capital conservation, I changed my allocation to: 30% Equities (a Global equity index fund plus small allocation of a Emerging Markets index fund) 55% Bonds (2 total return bond funds) 15% 5 year bond...
by mpt follower
Wed May 13, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares FactorSelect MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF
Replies: 1
Views: 318

iShares FactorSelect MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF

Interesting new product accounting for key Fama factors: Size Value, Quality, and Momentum. From the product brief: "INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE The iShares FactorSelect MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. small-capitalization stocks that have favo...
by mpt follower
Wed May 13, 2015 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4527

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

I am in the value camp. I have been a value oriented investor my entire investing career. It just makes sense to buy things when they go on sale. I am not only in the value camp but I also believe that value is a behavioral story. I don't dismiss the risk story but the arguments I have seen are in ...
by mpt follower
Wed May 13, 2015 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Stock Index
Replies: 44
Views: 3764

Re: Total World Stock Index

It seems to me that the slightly higher cost of the global fund more than compensate the fact that there is no need to do the necessary rebalance if owning the U.S. And foreign funds separately.
by mpt follower
Tue May 12, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

In any case, for those applying the Swedroe concept, and using ETFs (I live overseas and the use of mutual funds have very significant tax consequences), what are your picks for SV in the U.S. and foreign? Pretty simple picks: US SV: VBR and IJS as a tax-loss harvesting pair. Foreign Small: VSS But...
by mpt follower
Tue May 12, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

livesoft wrote:I don't have any of Mr Swedroe's books in front of me now, but doesn't he usually name some ticker symbols and present some sample portfolios to readers?


He has excellent examples in the book but uses instruments that can only be acquired through a financial adviser.
by mpt follower
Tue May 12, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

In any case, for those applying the Swedroe concept, and using ETFs (I live overseas and the use of mutual funds have very significant tax consequences), what are your picks for SV in the U.S. and foreign? Pretty simple picks: US SV: VBR and IJS as a tax-loss harvesting pair. Foreign Small: VSS But...
by mpt follower
Tue May 12, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate bond defined maturity funds
Replies: 26
Views: 1452

Re: Corporate bond defined maturity funds

I don't oppose the building of a ladder, but I do want to address the misconception that using a ladder protects you from losses that you would have with a bond fund holding a similar portfolio. It seems to me that the clear advantage of a defined maturity fund is when you have a specific need date...
by mpt follower
Tue May 12, 2015 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate bond defined maturity funds
Replies: 26
Views: 1452

Re: Corporate bond defined maturity funds

I don't oppose the building of a ladder, but I do want to address the misconception that using a ladder protects you from losses that you would have with a bond fund holding a similar portfolio. It seems to me that the clear advantage of a defined maturity fund is when you have a specific need date...
by mpt follower
Tue May 12, 2015 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 43
Views: 5263

Re: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It

The above discussions do not consider the fact that in a world of absurdly low interest rates, treasuries, safe or not, may not make it for those in retirement. So, one tend to go for the second best, which is corporate bonds. Using CDs is theoretically great, but in practice a big pain, moving IRA ...
by mpt follower
Mon May 11, 2015 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 56
Views: 5082

Reducing the Black Swans

I just finished Swedroe's book. Very convincing if you have 30 years ahead of you, but for someone in retirement, like me, it is risky. Value investing takes time since it follows a cycle, being in favor on and off, thus it may not be a good strategy in retirement. In any case, for those applying th...
by mpt follower
Sun May 10, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Stock Index
Replies: 44
Views: 3764

Re: Total World Stock Index

I have been advocating for it (not that I am any sort of expert - but I have voted with my pocketbook - I have VT in my portfolio). I think it is a very good option for a very long time horizon (for example - in a Roth IRA for a teen). If we could get a Total World Bond, then we could just do a two...
by mpt follower
Fri May 08, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up
Replies: 19
Views: 2568

Re: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up

One can kill the article with endless "what if" cases. But the Fed has announced more than once that it is intending to increase rates slowly, and it is hard to speculate differently, unless there is a surprise in inflation, etc. And second, index funds behave no different than the model ...
by mpt follower
Fri May 08, 2015 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up
Replies: 19
Views: 2568

Re: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up

One can kill the article with endless "what if" cases. But the Fed has announced more than once that it is intending to increase rates slowly, and it is hard to speculate differently, unless there is a surprise in inflation, etc. And second, index funds behave no different than the model t...
by mpt follower
Tue May 05, 2015 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors dumping US stocks for better opportunities abroad
Replies: 11
Views: 1940

Re: Investors dumping US stocks for better opportunities abroad

For that very reason I have most of my equity money in a global equity fund (50% US and the rest foreign)
by mpt follower
Mon May 04, 2015 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up
Replies: 19
Views: 2568

Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up

Much has been discussed about bond funds and the fear of rising interest rates. Since I have not seen Leibowitz et al research mentioned here, I have decided to post it. "Leibowitz, Bova and Kogelman constructed an analytic model for a portfolio of zero coupon bonds that maintains an average du...
by mpt follower
Sat May 02, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond ladder or bond funds in retirement
Replies: 1
Views: 307

bond ladder or bond funds in retirement

I am retired and my fixed income portfolio (70% of my savings) is invested in a rolling 5 year ladder (TIPs,and this year in a defined maturity corporate bond ETF.) covering my needs for each of the next 5 years, plus the bulk in total return bond funds. A friend, also retired, invests all his fixed...
by mpt follower
Sat Apr 11, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate bond defined maturity funds
Replies: 26
Views: 1452

Re: Corporate bond defined maturity funds

David, Please help me understand that your model is a better idea through the following questions. A. Since I have already built the ladder, how do you propose I implement your idea? B. Even if I was now five years from retirement and I decided to implement your idea, do I not run the risk of losing...
by mpt follower
Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate bond defined maturity funds
Replies: 26
Views: 1452

Re: Corporate bond defined maturity funds

I think these kinds of bond funds with maturity dates are great for laddering positions like you're doing. There is obviously more risk in a corporate bond than a Treasury bond or a CD, but I tend to think the risk is quite small in a real sense. I have more faith in major corporations to repay the...
by mpt follower
Fri Apr 10, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate bond defined maturity funds
Replies: 26
Views: 1452

Corporate bond defined maturity funds

As a retired investor, I keep 5 years worth of money, in a ladder of individual TIPs /CDs!(all this in my IRA) .However, Given the poor returns of TIPs, this year i wonder if acquiring my annual 5year TIP to continue the ladder makes sense. Further, 5 year brokege CDs at Fidelity are yielding about ...
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: These 5 Vanguard Index Funds Are All You Need
Replies: 8
Views: 3326

Re: These 5 Vanguard Index Funds Are All You Need

I only own one equity fund: A Global Equity Index Fund.
Vanguard offers VT and iShares ACWI. Either one is fine.
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI Diversified Multi-Factor Index
Replies: 36
Views: 3819

Re: MSCI Diversified Multi-Factor Index

Coincidentally, Research Affiliates just came out with their quarterly estimate of long term performance versus volatility for all asset classes, see below. Although one should take this information with much reservation. U.S. equities are shown to yield such meager returns, and with high volatility...
by mpt follower
Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash
Replies: 69
Views: 7943

Re: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash

You'll have to excuse my chronic pessimism (it's a personality trait - I spend most my time being pleasantly surprised) .. But on the notion of possible recency bias among investors, I wonder do investor's in the world's 2nd largest economy (until recently) stick by the "stay the course" ...
by mpt follower
Sun Apr 05, 2015 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI Diversified Multi-Factor Index
Replies: 36
Views: 3819

Re: MSCI Diversified Multi-Factor Index

Looks really neat, specially because MSCI claims that the risk exposure will be similar to the parent index. Question: could not find the historical data on the indexes in the MSCI website. Please HELP
by mpt follower
Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Strategy For A Market Crash
Replies: 54
Views: 9603

Re: My Strategy For A Market Crash

When equities drop 25% to 30% or whatever, I do not believe it is sufficient to simply reinvest dividends. I will sell bond fund shares and buy stock fund shares in order to maintain my asset allocation. That's what I did in 2008-2009 and all other years. Conversely, when equities go up 25% to 30% ...
by mpt follower
Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernanke's Blog: why are interest rates so low?
Replies: 52
Views: 7170

Re: Bernanke: "Why are interest rates so low?"

What Bernanke is saying is that the Fed has minimal impact on long term rates, which is correct, and, further, it is to the Fed's interest to set short term as close as possible to what he calls equilibrium rates, and in the academia is more commonly referred as natural rates, meaning the rates that...
by mpt follower
Sun Mar 29, 2015 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How long do sofas really last
Replies: 46
Views: 4733

Re: How long do sofas really last

In 1980 we bought two sofas at Ethan Allen for our living room. We have changed the cover fabric once but as far as I know they can last for another 20 years. Like my mother used to say, "I am too poor to buy cheap." They were very expensive, but very worth it.

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