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Re: Why I'll fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what

My calculations were based using the TIPs Ladder Builder (http://eyebonds.info/downloads/pages/TIPSLadder.html) ... To review, you calculated the cost of a $25,000 per year TIPS ladder maturing 2019 - 2018 at $228,369 using TIPS prices from 2/2/2010 and $241,618 using TIPS prices from 11/21/2014. T...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in

You are the perfect candidate to have someone else manage your money. I suggest you consider using one of the names routinely mentioned here, Swedrow, Ferri, etc. Buildung a portfolio is not the issue, but making sure that you do not do foolish things is.
by mpt follower
Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in
Replies: 48
Views: 3519

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I wanted to know what the difference in cost would be between the good old days and now. From the Treasury data (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield) I got data for 2/22/2010, the first day that 30 y TIPs bond was reinstated an...
by mpt follower
Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

MPT, Erwin, my first reaction was a surprise that you were not familiar with this issue. John Norstad's article on risk and time has been posted many times. On the issue of volatility vs uncertainty, I do think uncertainty is a risk, however, there are some very knowledgeable posters who would argu...
by mpt follower
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I wanted to know what the difference in cost would be between the good old days and now. From the Treasury data (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield) I got data for 2/22/2010, the first day that 30 y TIPs bond was reinstated an...
by mpt follower
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

The graphs shown in the Virtus article about how long it took markets to recover from various crashes are misleading. They appear to be based on index values without the effects of reinvestment of dividends. For example in the crash of 1929, investors who held on to the S&P 500 and reinvested d...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

^ I don't think this a fair comparison. The columnist invested in a TIPS fund. The argument for building a TIPS ladder is that it gives you a payout when the bond matures. No one advocating a life cycle approach to investment would ever advocate a TIPS fund. If you think you need an inflation-adjus...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

Although not relevant to the point, since you ask, it was sent to me by a friend who works for a big institutional broker. Thanks for the response. Sometimes we seek out articles that confirm our biases. Have you the books of Zvi Bodie about TIPS, such as "Worry Free Investing?" I found t...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I'm curious how you found this article? Did you go looking for it? Do you subscribe to investment newsletters? Do you have a financial advisor feeding you articles? Something your broker had on its home page? Something your buddy at the coffee shop gave you? Although not relevant to the point, sinc...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

we now have a reduced cost to taxes as deflation occurs. Isn't deflation about the worst thing ever that can happen to government debt and pension funding? Seems to me taxes might rise in an deflationary environment to cover obligations. Or am I missing something. Deflation is NOT necessary a bad t...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I'm curious how you found this article? Did you go looking for it? Do you subscribe to investment newsletters? Do you have a financial advisor feeding you articles? Something your broker had on its home page? Something your buddy at the coffee shop gave you? Although not relevant to the point, sinc...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I'm curious how you found this article? Did you go looking for it? Do you subscribe to investment newsletters? Do you have a financial advisor feeding you articles? Something your broker had on its home page? Something your buddy at the coffee shop gave you? Although not relevant to the point, sinc...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

OP, I read that article a few days ago too. Thought it was a nice thought piece. I am curious to know why you think TIPS is the solution to managing your risk? The article makes no recommendation of them. You also might like this piece: http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Risk%20Revisited.pdf . ...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what

As a retiree I have always been concern about risk, specigically that something highly unexpected can happen in the future that none of the retirement forecast software can predict. Something like the Japan equity market behavior, completely unexpected in modern times. This recent article has had an...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3990

Re: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?

Thank you all! Please keep the recommendations coming. I have a brand new GPS, and will be sure to get the European maps for it before we go... You could probably use a decent smartphone for this as well, and reduce the number of gadgets to keep track of. I've already loaded maps for a two-week tri...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?
Replies: 22
Views: 1431

Re: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?

The absolute best way to see Toscany is by bike. There are many bike companies that ofer self drive packages, so if you are up to it, there is nothing better.
I have done some of the 1 week trips, Pisa to Florence is one of my favorite
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?
Replies: 22
Views: 1431

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

I have to admit that at times, specially when valuations, i.e., PE10, are too high, I have been tempted to apply the 200 day moving average strategy, but I have stopped just before implementing it. The reason is simple: long term investors that can withstand the volatility can be assured that return...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 81
Views: 6460

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

27% does seem like a very low stock allocation for somebody in their mid 60's who could live another 30 years. I agree that you should probably ratchet that up to more like 35% - and I also agree that while the markets are hitting all time highs doesn't seem like the best time to do so. You can alw...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

27% does seem like a very low stock allocation for somebody in their mid 60's who could live another 30 years. I agree that you should probably ratchet that up to more like 35% - and I also agree that while the markets are hitting all time highs doesn't seem like the best time to do so. You can alw...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

You may not spend as much in 10 years. (Don't most surveys of retirement spending show that retirement spending decreases with age?) I'm going to play devil's advocate here and say that retirement calculators might be a little too conservative, and that the vast majority of Americans (and the world...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

27% does seem like a very low stock allocation for somebody in their mid 60's who could live another 30 years. I agree that you should probably ratchet that up to more like 35% - and I also agree that while the markets are hitting all time highs doesn't seem like the best time to do so. You can alw...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

Answer: Frankly I underestimated my cost of living. Simple! This one actually has a solution - in order to make your assets last longer in retirement, you simply spend less. Figure out your budget and spending and look for the largest and easiest ways to cut it - this forum is great at helping in t...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

Forgot:
Second reason:Once the market recovered I reduced my stock allocation drastically.
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

Erwin, what went wrong with this plan? For Those In Retirement: Why I Am Not Worry! Seems like the markets have served as a tailwind since you made that post in 2008. What went wrong? Did you underestimate your costs in retirement? MB Very curious myself to see what happened since 2008 that has occ...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

I am 66 and retired. Using the different forecasting tools, Fidelity's, Firecalc, Otar's, etc., they indicate that I am borderline in meeting my goals in retirement although my current annual expenditures to total liquid assets ratio is 3.6 (surprise!!). It appears that the issue revolves around my ...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 4:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3356

Re: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??

I have seen the WSJ data, but it is inconsistent with the Treasury data that shows +0.22, see
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center ... =realyield
Where am I wrong?
by mpt follower
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??
Replies: 4
Views: 459

5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??

Any estimates or real yield??
by mpt follower
Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??
Replies: 4
Views: 459

Re: Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs

I think given OP is willing to hold HY bonds anyway, holding a fixed maturity version for his anticipated liquidity need seems like a good idea. Could you put some numbers on that, please? Anything. Using your own best judgement of how to measure risk in his particular situation, and what compariso...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1156

Re: Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs

Ogd, You may be right, but checking in Morningstar, the average credit quality of BSJJ, HYG, and VWEHX (Vanguard High Yield Corporate fund) are the same, "B". Does that help you understand the risk? I am far from being an expert, but if Vanguard is considered a careful fund, then BSJJ cann...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1156

Re: Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs

It's much simpler than that. BSCJ (the 2019 fund) pays 2.02% SEC yield and it will not make a penny more than that by 2019. It has considerable credit risk. It still has interest rate risk, in that if rates rise greatly in, say, 2016, you will not be able to take advantage of them. Only cash has no...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 15, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1156

Re: Non-US citizen with Interactive Brokers: Estate Tax risk

Yes, unless you buy individual bonds or stocks. The way to get around it is to form a company and buy through it. Companies never die Thanks for this. I have some follow-up questions, if you don't mind. - Do you have a link to legislation or some official source where it's clearly specified that tr...
by mpt follower
Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-US citizen with US Brokers: Estate Tax risk?
Replies: 41
Views: 2367

Re: Non-US citizen with Interactive Brokers: Estate Tax risk

Sorry, I did not read carefully. If your ETFs are foreign ETFs buying US individual stocks and bonds, the answer would be NO.
by mpt follower
Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-US citizen with US Brokers: Estate Tax risk?
Replies: 41
Views: 2367

Re: Non-US citizen with Interactive Brokers: Estate Tax risk

Yes, unless you buy individual bonds or stocks. The way to get around it is to form a company and buy through it. Companies never die
by mpt follower
Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non-US citizen with US Brokers: Estate Tax risk?
Replies: 41
Views: 2367

Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs

I am fully aware that some of you do not invest in high yield bonds. However, I do agree with Rick Ferri to place about 20% of the bond allocation in this asset class and I have done so for many years. The money has been in my IRA account in the HYG ETF, and frankly I have been very happy with it. M...
by mpt follower
Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Guggenheim BulletShares High Yield Corporate ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1156

Re: If your networth is over $3 million, how did you do it?

Very simple, save an invest during lucky years.
by mpt follower
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If your networth is over $3 million, how did you do it?
Replies: 248
Views: 24456

Re: For the next year or so, why shouldn't we be in all-cas

For someone in retirement who keeps the bond portion in a total bond fund, but purchases a 5 year CD or 5 year TIPs bond every year to keep a 5 years ladder, what would the strategy be? Continue holding the total bond fund no matter what and next year this time, like any subsequent year, cash a port...
by mpt follower
Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For the next year or so, why shouldn't we be in all-cash?
Replies: 54
Views: 6860

Re: PIMCO Total Return Fund-PTTDX

Further to the comments by the previous poster, who said that Gross was making all the decisions. It is highly likely for a fund of this size that many contribute to its performance. I would not be surprised if the fund continues to behave in the same manner as when Gross was the manager. In additio...
by mpt follower
Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PIMCO Total Return Fund-PTTDX
Replies: 10
Views: 1028

Re: Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?

I am a huge fan of laddering, as you know. Periodicity is your friend. Laddering is to fixed-income as DCA is to equity investing. Stuff goes up, stuff goes down. Trying to time the market in fixed-income is, well, difficult. Take what the market gives you, ladder, then roll. Applies to just about ...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 09, 2014 2:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?
Replies: 10
Views: 1111

Re: Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?

One further point. Following general agreement that a typical business cycle is about 5 years, I have decided to build the forward cash flow so that I am always covered for the next 5 years. Presently I am covered through 2018, therefore this December I will buy an instrument, TIPS, treasure strip, ...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 09, 2014 1:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?
Replies: 10
Views: 1111

Re: Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?

I have also looked at treasure strips, and frankly find them more attractive simply because the total income is delivered at maturity, exactly when I need the money. If I am not wrong, the question is whether one can believe that the Fed has a good handle on inflation and there would not be unexpect...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 09, 2014 1:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?
Replies: 10
Views: 1111

Dec 2014 5 year TIPS bond auction

Can any of the experts estimate the real yield of the 5 year TIPS bond during the mid Dec 2014 auction? The Fidelity rep said that it my be negative and suggested a 2.15% annual rate 5 year CD. Comments?
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dec 2014 5 year TIPS bond auction
Replies: 2
Views: 516

Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?

In a previous post, I asked questions relative to investment options for fixed income, specifically whether it is better to hold a CD or the total bond index. There were very enlightening discussions and I thank you all for the input. Now I want to ask a slightly different question. Here it is: I am...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total BOND Funds/CDs or TIP bond ladder?
Replies: 10
Views: 1111

Re: BND or a CD

Since I started this discussion, please allow me to conclude that no matter how many times some one tries to convince me that SEC yield is meaningless, no doubt it is the best indicator of yield to maturity of a bond fund. I do not understand the business of rebalance, buying and selling bonds, etc....
by mpt follower
Mon Nov 03, 2014 12:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673

Re: BND or a CD

SEC yield is a tool to compare bond funds. It doesn't account for future reinvestment yields, future movements in the yield curve, internal BND rebalancing due to changes in the bond market, and future rebalancing events between stocks and bonds in a portfolio. So, yes, I do think that for most pra...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673

Re: BND or a CD

What really bothers me is knowing that I can invest a large sum in BND knowing that my returns will almost certainly be pathetic [...] Why are you so convinced? I'd like to get your crystal ball. :happy Who would have predicted in December 2013 that BND's YTD returns would be ~5% by the end of Octo...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673

Re: BND or a CD

MPT, Are you in the accumulation stage or in retirement? What's the role of fixed income in your investment portfolio? If you're in the middle of accumulation mode and all you're after from fixed income is a smoothing out of the equity volatility portion of your portfolio, you can use either or bot...
by mpt follower
Fri Oct 31, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673

Re: BND or a CD

In the investment world, reward generally follows risk. Longer term, bonds are expected to have higher returns than CDs. To OP: what is your time horizon for this investment? The time horizon is not the issue. The issue is related to: BND has a duration of between 5 and 6 years with a SEC yield of ...
by mpt follower
Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673

Re: BND or a CD

Help me understand: Assume I purchase shares of BND today when the SEC yield is 2% and the duration is 5.5 years. If I wait that duration and reinvest all dividends (excluding any taxes), should I not expect to get about 2% annually at the end? Not necessarily. If you buy it today (or probably tomo...
by mpt follower
Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673

Re: BND or a CD

Last year, folks touted CDs over a bond fund, too. Guess what happened? The bond fund returned more than enough to trounce CDs so that even if CDs are better in the future, the bond fund will still come out ahead. I suppose if one needed 100% of their bond fund money on exactly a certain date, that...
by mpt follower
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673

Re: BND or a CD

They serve different purposes. A CD is more or less locked in for that period of time. BND is not. BND also provides useful diversification from your stock investments. Bonds tend to zig when stocks zag, making it very useful as a tool to reduce overall volatility in your investment portfolio. A CD...
by mpt follower
Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9673
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