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Re: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??

Since this is not a new bond, I am confused on how to enter the data in my Quicken. Here are the details To add to my 5 year TIPs ladder, yesterday I participated in the auction. Here is what Fidelity shows: Shares 84,000 Price 98.8529 Amount $84,169.17 Interest $22.51 However, based on what I paid ...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??
Replies: 13
Views: 1901

Re: CD or Treasury ladder trade-off

Treasuries is an extremely efficient market with high demand by very big players; therefore, the yields you would get are about the lowest. Further, given that rates are either going to stay flat or go up, CDs for the duration you have in mind are far superior.
by mpt follower
Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD or Treasury ladder trade-off
Replies: 14
Views: 748

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

I have favored the low volatility emerging markets ETF, EEMV. Does anyone own it?
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18367

Re: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?

With oil dropping the way it is and all the uncertainty and fears surrounding the european markets and the end of QE..think a crash is pending? I apologize for those that make fan of your question. Trust me, they will not tell you but most fear as much as you and I do. The answer, of course, is tha...
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5666

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Angst:

Yes, you understood it well. By the way, go to that website and you can run statistics in real terms.
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2588

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

I'm gonna do some quick math here: (5x52x5)-(12x5)=1240 That is, 5 years times 52 weeks times 5 days/week minus, oh... 12 holidays/yr times 5 years equals roughly 1240 data points in each of these 5-year graphic snapshots. Ignoring the possible absence of data to the left of Jan 1st 1970, and the c...
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2588

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Blue wrote:I couldn't get the links to the article to work either.


There is something wrong with the site. I downloaded the paper, is there anyway that I can somehow attach it here?
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2588

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

What the article shows is that over any given time period that is meaningful to most investors -- such as 5 to 15 years -- you have no idea what asset returns are going to be, even relative to one another. Presumably if you have a half century to spare, things will play out as expected at least in ...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2588

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

The virtue of the article is that it demonstrates that things can easily go contrary to what we hope over a 5 year period. The problem with the article is that it implies that if we wait long enough, things will certainly be fine. Many people don't have a 45 year time frame and might want to take t...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2588

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Scary!!! Or am I wrong? After reading the article I can only conclude that to assure succeed in the stock market, meaning that it will follow the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis for what Bogleheads based their strategy, may require too long of a time period. The article shows that ...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2588

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Scary!!! Or am I wrong? After reading the article I can only conclude that to assure succeed in the stock market, meaning that it will follow the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis for what Bogleheads based their strategy, may require too long of a time period. The article shows that ...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2588

Re: Energy sector

, but do you think that Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Shell, and BP will be struggling in the long run? Well I'm no expert on this but seems to me that if in a few decades from now, everyone is driving battery or fuel cell powered cars, and using electric heat, etc, then hydrocarbon demand and pr...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4170

Re: Energy sector

I expect the energy sector to suffer in the long run, as solar energy costs and energy storage capacity and costs all continue to improve exponentially. There is a risk that this won't happen, peak oil will hit us hard, and economies will suffer. Because of this and because energy looks cheap today...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4170

Re: Energy sector

A barrel of WTI sold for $10 in 1997. It could go to $30 but if it stays there for a long period of time, you'll see a lot of firms either merge or go out of business. So if you are going to overweigh, make sure you focus on those firms which are conservatively run and have a lot of proved reserves...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4170

Energy sector

Oil has gone from 110+ down to 65 in a few months.
Is it time to overweight the energy sector?
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 55
Views: 4170

Re: Adjusting Core Four to include a slice of a single stock

This not exact science. If you feel so strongly about that stock, I would just treat it as an independent, unrelated investment.
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting Core Four to include a slice of a single stock?
Replies: 12
Views: 762

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I have enjoyed this discussion of retirement risk management investing. I was interested to read a recent discussion by Michael Kitces https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-sequence-of-return-risk-with-bucket-strategies-vs-a-total-return-rebalancing-approach/ where ,while not directly addressing his...
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7705

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I have enjoyed this discussion of retirement risk management investing. I was interested to read a recent discussion by Michael Kitces https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-sequence-of-return-risk-with-bucket-strategies-vs-a-total-return-rebalancing-approach/ where ,while not directly addressing his...
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7705

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

One additional question not asked as of yet... I have all of the dividends from my taxable accounts deposited into my checking account each month/quarter. This reduces my need to tap principle in my investment accounts. In looking at 25 years of safe assets, should one consider your annual need fro...
by mpt follower
Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7705

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I agree on all is being said here and my plan, presented arlier reflects it. My only issue, or rather question is whether keeping the bonds in funds is the way to go. If one follows Bodie's approach, it is better to develop a ladder of TIPs. Any comments?
by mpt follower
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7705

Re: Real Return/Risk Assumptions

TIPs may be an attractive proposition in today's environment. The real yield of 5 year TIP to be auctioned on 18 Dec. most likely will be positive. Last time I checked it was +0.24. Pitiful, but better than a few months ago when it was negative.
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return/Risk Assumptions
Replies: 5
Views: 627

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

Bernstein hits a very significant challenge for retirees. As one in retirement, like me, that went through the 2008 crisis already in retirement, this is something that concerns me much. In a recent post I presented my ideas and got one single comment. I will repeat my plan here hoping to get more i...
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7705

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Check this out. A detailed methodology for investing using momentum+value:
The Case for Value and Momentum at the Asset Class Level
http://www.elmfunds.com/uploads/1/2/0/2 ... .03.13.pdf
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 96
Views: 7367

year end capital tax credit??

If I sell a fund, buy a similar one, say sell ACWI and buy VT, to then sell VT to buy back the original fund, ACWI, how long do I have to wait between the transactions to legally claim capital tax?
by mpt follower
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: year end capital tax credit??
Replies: 1
Views: 348

Financial Plan for a retiree. Comments!

Dear All: In the past months I have used this forum to bounce ideas, some a bit extreme, some a bit silly, with the goal of formulating a long term retirement plan for me and my wife. Thank you so very much for your valuable comments! In addition to your input, Evensky, Pfau, and Bodie have had much...
by mpt follower
Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Plan for a retiree. Comments!
Replies: 1
Views: 416

Is there anything between bonds and stocks?

If bonds do not yield much and stocks can but are too risky specially today, is there anything in between that can give you a bit more yield? I am still searching.
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there anything between bonds and stocks?
Replies: 15
Views: 1490

Re: World Stock Returns & GDP Growth, 1988-2013

The problem with trying to forecast using this data is that if one assumes that World GDP growth will be somewhere between 2 and 3%, a quick reading from the graph indicates that returns can be anywhere between -10 to a bit over +10%. What good is that?
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World Stock Returns & GDP Growth, 1988-2013
Replies: 10
Views: 1410

Re: Why I'll fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what

My calculations were based using the TIPs Ladder Builder (http://eyebonds.info/downloads/pages/TIPSLadder.html) ... To review, you calculated the cost of a $25,000 per year TIPS ladder maturing 2019 - 2018 at $228,369 using TIPS prices from 2/2/2010 and $241,618 using TIPS prices from 11/21/2014. T...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in

You are the perfect candidate to have someone else manage your money. I suggest you consider using one of the names routinely mentioned here, Swedrow, Ferri, etc. Buildung a portfolio is not the issue, but making sure that you do not do foolish things is.
by mpt follower
Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in
Replies: 52
Views: 5267

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I wanted to know what the difference in cost would be between the good old days and now. From the Treasury data (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield) I got data for 2/22/2010, the first day that 30 y TIPs bond was reinstated an...
by mpt follower
Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

MPT, Erwin, my first reaction was a surprise that you were not familiar with this issue. John Norstad's article on risk and time has been posted many times. On the issue of volatility vs uncertainty, I do think uncertainty is a risk, however, there are some very knowledgeable posters who would argu...
by mpt follower
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I wanted to know what the difference in cost would be between the good old days and now. From the Treasury data (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield) I got data for 2/22/2010, the first day that 30 y TIPs bond was reinstated an...
by mpt follower
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

The graphs shown in the Virtus article about how long it took markets to recover from various crashes are misleading. They appear to be based on index values without the effects of reinvestment of dividends. For example in the crash of 1929, investors who held on to the S&P 500 and reinvested d...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

^ I don't think this a fair comparison. The columnist invested in a TIPS fund. The argument for building a TIPS ladder is that it gives you a payout when the bond matures. No one advocating a life cycle approach to investment would ever advocate a TIPS fund. If you think you need an inflation-adjus...
by mpt follower
Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

Although not relevant to the point, since you ask, it was sent to me by a friend who works for a big institutional broker. Thanks for the response. Sometimes we seek out articles that confirm our biases. Have you the books of Zvi Bodie about TIPS, such as "Worry Free Investing?" I found t...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I'm curious how you found this article? Did you go looking for it? Do you subscribe to investment newsletters? Do you have a financial advisor feeding you articles? Something your broker had on its home page? Something your buddy at the coffee shop gave you? Although not relevant to the point, sinc...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

we now have a reduced cost to taxes as deflation occurs. Isn't deflation about the worst thing ever that can happen to government debt and pension funding? Seems to me taxes might rise in an deflationary environment to cover obligations. Or am I missing something. Deflation is NOT necessary a bad t...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I'm curious how you found this article? Did you go looking for it? Do you subscribe to investment newsletters? Do you have a financial advisor feeding you articles? Something your broker had on its home page? Something your buddy at the coffee shop gave you? Although not relevant to the point, sinc...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

I'm curious how you found this article? Did you go looking for it? Do you subscribe to investment newsletters? Do you have a financial advisor feeding you articles? Something your broker had on its home page? Something your buddy at the coffee shop gave you? Although not relevant to the point, sinc...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

OP, I read that article a few days ago too. Thought it was a nice thought piece. I am curious to know why you think TIPS is the solution to managing your risk? The article makes no recommendation of them. You also might like this piece: http://www.oaktreecapital.com/MemoTree/Risk%20Revisited.pdf . ...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what

As a retiree I have always been concern about risk, specigically that something highly unexpected can happen in the future that none of the retirement forecast software can predict. Something like the Japan equity market behavior, completely unexpected in modern times. This recent article has had an...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4905

Re: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?

Thank you all! Please keep the recommendations coming. I have a brand new GPS, and will be sure to get the European maps for it before we go... You could probably use a decent smartphone for this as well, and reduce the number of gadgets to keep track of. I've already loaded maps for a two-week tri...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?
Replies: 22
Views: 1576

Re: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?

The absolute best way to see Toscany is by bike. There are many bike companies that ofer self drive packages, so if you are up to it, there is nothing better.
I have done some of the 1 week trips, Pisa to Florence is one of my favorite
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A week in Tuscany: April 2015. Suggestions?
Replies: 22
Views: 1576

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

I have to admit that at times, specially when valuations, i.e., PE10, are too high, I have been tempted to apply the 200 day moving average strategy, but I have stopped just before implementing it. The reason is simple: long term investors that can withstand the volatility can be assured that return...
by mpt follower
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9152

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

27% does seem like a very low stock allocation for somebody in their mid 60's who could live another 30 years. I agree that you should probably ratchet that up to more like 35% - and I also agree that while the markets are hitting all time highs doesn't seem like the best time to do so. You can alw...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3595

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

27% does seem like a very low stock allocation for somebody in their mid 60's who could live another 30 years. I agree that you should probably ratchet that up to more like 35% - and I also agree that while the markets are hitting all time highs doesn't seem like the best time to do so. You can alw...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3595

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

You may not spend as much in 10 years. (Don't most surveys of retirement spending show that retirement spending decreases with age?) I'm going to play devil's advocate here and say that retirement calculators might be a little too conservative, and that the vast majority of Americans (and the world...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3595

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

27% does seem like a very low stock allocation for somebody in their mid 60's who could live another 30 years. I agree that you should probably ratchet that up to more like 35% - and I also agree that while the markets are hitting all time highs doesn't seem like the best time to do so. You can alw...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3595

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

Answer: Frankly I underestimated my cost of living. Simple! This one actually has a solution - in order to make your assets last longer in retirement, you simply spend less. Figure out your budget and spending and look for the largest and easiest ways to cut it - this forum is great at helping in t...
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3595

Re: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?

Forgot:
Second reason:Once the market recovered I reduced my stock allocation drastically.
by mpt follower
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I may not make my retirement goals! What to do?
Replies: 49
Views: 3595
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