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Re: Round The World!

I would love to do it. I have the money. I have the time (retired). But guess what.. I do not have a willing DW. Small detail, right?
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Round The World!
Replies: 26
Views: 1542

Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

Because 10 years is a very short amount of time. How do you think those numbers would look if the ten year period was 3/5/1999 to 3/5/2009? 10 years is a very long time in the life of a person. In my view the answer is simple. We just do not know what the future will bring and that is the main reas...
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 74
Views: 3302

Re: opened up wellesley for kids

Too conservative for me unless kid close to college age. I would use a target date fund and set the fund date = college date.
by mpt follower
Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: opened up wellesley for kids
Replies: 9
Views: 1277

Re: Bernstein retirement plan

Is the 25x a net, after tax number? Anyone cares to answer. I think that this is significant, specially if most of the funds are in an IRA.
by mpt follower
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein retirement plan
Replies: 38
Views: 5038

Re: Bernstein retirement plan

Fellow Bogleheads, I'm retiring this year and have set up my assets in a similar manner....25 X annual expenses in CD's, treasuries, AAA insured municipal bonds, $100K emergency fund in MM accounts, and the remainder in Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund... Provides for a comfortable retirement AND a...
by mpt follower
Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein retirement plan
Replies: 38
Views: 5038

Re: Using Valuations for Asset Allocation

I am a strong believer in the use of PE10 to judge valuation and to tilt the global allocation using PE10 as the guide. However, I have to confess that beyond academic research that seems very convincing to me, I have no personal records to prove my believe. For that reason I have split my equity al...
by mpt follower
Fri Apr 18, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Valuations for Asset Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 521

Re: Why You Shouldn't Fear Japan

That's very interesting and new, or certainly new to me. What was your data source, was it no-cost or do you have access to some subscription service? I looked around and only found one affordable institution that delivers this data, The Idea Farm (http://www.theideafarm.com/subscriber-archives/). ...
by mpt follower
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4117

Re: A portfolio with a 7% yield? Your thoughts?

If you read carefully, the portfolio was constructed using a tool (actually a software using Montecarlo simulation) to estimate future returns. In the Internet, you can find an endless number of articles using any number on tools that will promise any return you want. My recommendation is for you to...
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 15, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A portfolio with a 7% yield? Your thoughts?
Replies: 9
Views: 1030

Re: Random individual stocks as supplement to indexing

Situation: I have approximately $500,000 invested primarily in Vanguard S&P 500 index fund admiral shares and a bit in other similar investments (100% stock, low-cost Vanguard index funds), but now live in a foreign country with tax advantaged account options that allow for individual stocks, w...
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random individual stocks as supplement to indexing
Replies: 13
Views: 969

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

GTAA is not that complex. Faber has a paper on the strategy. It uses the standard 200 moving average to be in or out of an asset class. Simple tech analysis, which we all know is highly time depended.
by mpt follower
Sat Apr 12, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 22
Views: 1269

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

One comment: when I heard that Faber came out with this new ETF (GVAL), I immediately thought about the fiasco with GTAA. However, one has to recognize that while GTAA uses technical analysis (which some, including myself, considered non sense) to manage the fund, GVAL is based on solid fundamental...
by mpt follower
Fri Apr 11, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 22
Views: 1269

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

One comment: when I heard that Faber came out with this new ETF (GVAL), I immediately thought about the fiasco with GTAA. However, one has to recognize that while GTAA uses technical analysis (which some, including myself, considered non sense) to manage the fund, GVAL is based on solid fundamental ...
by mpt follower
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 22
Views: 1269

Re: Passport validity: Do I need at least 6 months?

Last year, in a flight from Tel Aviv to Los Angeles, I was not allowed to board because my passport expired in less than 6 months. I rushed to the consulate in the center of the city, and a considerate cost, I was able to have it renewed over night. Luckily Air France has daily flights, but if I rem...
by mpt follower
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Passport validity: Do I need at least 6 months?
Replies: 40
Views: 1542

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Then the issue is that foreign bonds are not in much better position than US, and possibly worse. Other than the dollar, the world has three reserve currencies: the euro, the pound, and the yen. Of the euro countries, maybe three have a AAA credit rating. Japan has far larger demographic problems t...
by mpt follower
Thu Apr 10, 2014 12:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1185

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Funny that you say "Living in a small (and economically insignificant) country, I don't have the luxury of thinking of my government treasuries as a riskless investment. For that reason I've decided to allocate at least 33% of my bond portion to US treasuries." That insignificant country ...
by mpt follower
Thu Apr 10, 2014 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1185

Re: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?

GDP is certainly an approach, which by the way is advertised by some. But what I think we must object is to set allocation based on intuition.
by mpt follower
Wed Apr 09, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 830

Re: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?

By deciding to reduce your presence in the US market, you are actually saying that you know something that the market does not. After all the allocation in the global index is not arbitrary. In essence you are drifting, however slightly, from the passive strategy that is the foundation of modern po...
by mpt follower
Wed Apr 09, 2014 12:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 830

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Funny that you say "Living in a small (and economically insignificant) country, I don't have the luxury of thinking of my government treasuries as a riskless investment. For that reason I've decided to allocate at least 33% of my bond portion to US treasuries." That insignificant country ...
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1185

Re: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?

I have opted for a global equity ETF. The global ETF, like VT or ACWI will do the rebalancing for you without you having to sell and buy to rebalance and it does it more tax efficient. It is a no hassle investment. . Yes, I just thought about that after posting, that the All World ETF also rebalanc...
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 830

Re: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?

I have opted for a global equity ETF. There is a lot of discussion about regional diversification, but I am not sure if investing in a global equity ETF does not achieve similar returns, and it is certainly simpler and more tax efficient. The global ETF, like VT or ACWI will do the rebalancing for y...
by mpt follower
Tue Apr 08, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 830

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Funny that you say "Living in a small (and economically insignificant) country, I don't have the luxury of thinking of my government treasuries as a riskless investment. For that reason I've decided to allocate at least 33% of my bond portion to US treasuries." That insignificant country (...
by mpt follower
Mon Apr 07, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1185

A Rynamic Approach to a Retirement Spending

I just run into a Vanguard report published 10.13 that details one of the most logical strategy that I have encountered for spending during retirement. In case this group has not seen it, here it is:

http://vanguard.com/pdf/s823.pdf
by mpt follower
Sat Apr 05, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Rynamic Approach to a Retirement Spending
Replies: 6
Views: 654

What about Minimum Volatility Equity ETFs??

We have all grown with the idea that future long term returns of equities are governed by CAPM, later modified by Fama: returns are a function of risk (beta), size, and value. However, in recent studies you read that there is a persistent anomaly, that long term returns seem to be higher with lower ...
by mpt follower
Sun Mar 23, 2014 1:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What about Minimum Volatility Equity ETFs??
Replies: 3
Views: 314

Re: The Intelligent Investor

While I don't think I am a market timer I do think there are times when the odds favor taking more or less risk when the market has been on either a long bull run or a long bear run. I have a goal of getting my equity allocation down from the mid 40's to 40% in 4 years. I let it run up during 2013 ...
by mpt follower
Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 27
Views: 3301

Re: The Intelligent Investor

It seems to me that the idea is equivalent to adjusting allocation based on the Shiller PE10 value. As the bull market advances, PE10 increases and the potential of lower future performance increases as well. Those using dynamic asset allocation would agree with Graham.
by mpt follower
Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 27
Views: 3301

Low beta etfs?

I was recently introduced to the low beta concept. There is plenty of literature in the Internet discussing the virtues of low volatile stock investing. In fact, iShares has a number of low volatility stock ETFs covering all world regions. Does any one use these instruments? What has happened with t...
by mpt follower
Fri Mar 14, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low beta etfs?
Replies: 0
Views: 190

Re: Turning 65... Now What?

I am also 65 and have followed a very simple steategy: I do not take unnecessary risk. Given that I think that I have enough, my goal is capital preservation. If I lose a million it will really hurt me; if I make another million, my standard of living will not change. My present allocation is 30% eq...
by mpt follower
Thu Mar 13, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Turning 65... Now What?
Replies: 4
Views: 1022

Re: The "do not know the future" allocation

Is anyone using the stock allocation system that basically split the different geographical regions equally and rebalance annually? Take the simplest model, invest equally in US, EAFE, and emerging markets. Then annually rebalance. This system assumes that one does not know the future returns of th...
by mpt follower
Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The "do not know the future" allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 3050

Re: The "do not know the future" allocation

Is anyone using the stock allocation system that basically split the different geographical regions equally and rebalance annually? Take the simplest model, invest equally in US, EAFE, and emerging markets. Then annually rebalance. This system assumes that one does not know the future returns of th...
by mpt follower
Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The "do not know the future" allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 3050

Re: The "do not know the future" allocation

...I admit that should the goal be to cover the entire world, you have an excellent point; however, the strategy for me is to pick a reasonable number of regions that hopefully have different valuations. The reason one picks a number of equity baskets is because you do not know which ones will do w...
by mpt follower
Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The "do not know the future" allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 3050

Re: The "do not know the future" allocation

Is anyone using the stock allocation system that basically split the different geographical regions equally and rebalance annually? Take the simplest model, invest equally in US, EAFE, and emerging markets. Then annually rebalance. This system assumes that one does not know the future returns of th...
by mpt follower
Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The "do not know the future" allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 3050

The "do not know the future" allocation

Is anyone using the stock allocation system that basically split the different geographical regions equally and rebalance annually? Take the simplest model, invest equally in US, EAFE, and emerging markets. Then annually rebalance. This system assumes that one does not know the future returns of the...
by mpt follower
Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The "do not know the future" allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 3050

Re: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric

...tilt the equity portion towards those markets having a lower PE10. Just as an example, my latest PE10 values (1.1.2014) show the following: UK PE10 = 13.6; Japan PE10 = 21.05; MSCI Emerging Market = 15.1; US PE10 = 25.4. These figures would lead you to tilt towards the UK and Emerging Markets at...
by mpt follower
Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric
Replies: 24
Views: 1227

Re: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric

Let me suggest a slightly different approach. Since bonds are today nothing to write home about, why not stay with a fixed equity %, say that your long term plan calls for 50% stocks/50% bonds+ cash. Then tilt the equity portion towards those markets having a lower PE10. Just as an example, my lates...
by mpt follower
Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric
Replies: 24
Views: 1227

Investing in IRA in foreign assets

Question: Do I understand that if one invests in in your IRA a foreign asset, there is no way to claim the foreign tax credit. Let me explain: one buys an Israeli bond in an IRA account and pays 25% in taxes on the bond interest to the Israeli tax authorities. Can that be claimed in the US tax return?
by mpt follower
Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in IRA in foreign assets
Replies: 1
Views: 129

Re: Portfolio planning, Dubai based Non-US citizen, Trading

"As a general rule, non-US persons should be very leery of directly holding US situated investments." Why is that so? ... I am not a US citizen so I avoid US taxation Not as much as you think. The US will tax your dividends from these holdings at 30%. Your $90k investment is larger than th...
by mpt follower
Fri Mar 07, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio planning, Dubai based Non-US citizen, Trading ETFs
Replies: 24
Views: 939

Re: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.

The way I approach this issue is not whether an asset class is or is not undervalue, but whether one has a higher potential for future growth. If one looks at a recent Shiller's PE10 number (1.1.2014) for UK versus US, 13.61 versus 25.44, it is possible to assume that in the long run, the UK stock m...
by mpt follower
Thu Mar 06, 2014 1:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.
Replies: 32
Views: 1945

Allocation of USA/EFA/Emerging

What is your equity allocation of US, EFA, and Emerging Markets? Why?
by mpt follower
Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation of USA/EFA/Emerging
Replies: 5
Views: 212

Re: Opening a Roth IRA. Need help with strategy

Not sure if you are or have considered delaying SS for highest earner until age 70? That gives you more room for conversions and gives you a higher COLAd income for you and your survivor in the future. If you are still within the 15% bracket, you can continue to convert to Roth after first removing...
by mpt follower
Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening a Roth IRA. Need help with strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Re: Opening a Roth IRA. Need help with strategy

You say your funds will cover you “well until your eighties” so I wonder how you and your wife plan to fund long-term care. If funds would need to be taken from your recently converted Roth IRA, you would already have paid the taxes and thus forfeited a Schedule A tax deduction available for this, ...
by mpt follower
Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening a Roth IRA. Need help with strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Opening a Roth IRA. Need help with strategy

Dear all, Please review my tax strategy. I would appreciate your input. I am turning 66 this year and my wife and I are retired. I have a large traditional IRA as well as enough in my after tax account plus income from pensions and SS to most likely last me and my wife well until my 80s. Given this ...
by mpt follower
Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opening a Roth IRA. Need help with strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Re: Value: Dividend yield beats P/E and P/B considering risk

What about comparing the effectiveness of the discussed indicators to pe10?
by mpt follower
Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value: Dividend yield beats P/E and P/B considering risk
Replies: 26
Views: 1892

Wellington in Taxable Account

I have owned Vanguard Wellington in my taxable account for many years. I am now retired and need to find a more tax efficient fund. What would be a comparable fund in terms of stock style and management approach holding 100% stocks, instead of Wellington's 60/40?
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington in Taxable Account
Replies: 5
Views: 539

Re: Timing investments and reducing risk?

Since we are talking about timing the market, let me suggest the following article by Victor Haghani on Dynamic Asset Allocation, basically taking passive investments one step further. It seems very appealing even if you do not believe in it. "The Case for Value and Momentum at the Asset Class ...
by mpt follower
Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing investments and reducing risk?
Replies: 20
Views: 1210

Re: Emerging Markets Bonds

I think it depends on the role of bonds in your portfolio? I'm a "bonds are for safety" person. In times of crisis, it's hard to beat TBM, well, risk adjusted. 30 year bonds the best, but too much interest rate risk along the way. if bonds are a ballast, like me, it's hard to beat a treas...
by mpt follower
Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: Emerging Markets Bonds

ValueThinker, I appreciate your input; although if I were you I would shy away from making comments that someone does not understand something, like you stated in your respond, without really knowing that person and the reasons for his/her actions. You would be surprised how far your comments, whic...
by mpt follower
Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: Emerging Markets Bonds

ValueThinker, I appreciate your input; although if I were you I would shy away from making comments that someone does not understand something, like you stated in your respond, without really knowing that person and the reasons for his/her actions. You would be surprised how far your comments, which...
by mpt follower
Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Emerging Markets Bonds

Dear All, I have been investing for a few years about 5% of my portfolio (IRA account) in emerging markets bonds through Fidelity New Markets (FNMIX). Up to early 2013, the fund was rather successful, but since then it has lost about 7%. I do intend to keep the money in bonds but I wonder if it woul...
by mpt follower
Thu Feb 06, 2014 3:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 1269

Re: The Vanguard Wellington Pull

You might find T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX) as appealing. I have split my stocks betwee Wellington and this fund.
by mpt follower
Tue Feb 04, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanguard Wellington Pull
Replies: 32
Views: 3921

Re: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds

He is not the only one. I would not discount his views without understanding his reason. May be what he meant is no bods, but yes CDs. Would that change your opinion?
by mpt follower
Thu Jan 16, 2014 2:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds
Replies: 52
Views: 4018
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