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DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF, TOTL

Very interesting that the new bond "guru",Jeffrey Gundlach, reflecting his view of the current direction of interest rates, has very aggressively positioned the portfolio of new total return bond ETF at the average maturity of 13.5 years.the total bond index average maturity is 7.5 years.
by mpt follower
Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF, TOTL
Replies: 0
Views: 131

Re: The QQQ fund?

From Invesco's website: "PowerShares QQQ™, formerly known as "QQQ" or the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock®", is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index®. The Fund will, under most circumstances, consist of all of stocks in the Index. The Index includes 100 o...
by mpt follower
Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The QQQ fund?
Replies: 21
Views: 1657

Re: why do some people like Fidelity?

Is the most service oriented brokerage company that I have ever dealt. 25 continuous years with them, and never had a bad experience. Hard to bit!
by mpt follower
Sat Feb 21, 2015 12:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do some people like Fidelity?
Replies: 67
Views: 6712

Quicken: mutual fund/ETF cost basis. Help!

In Quicken, the cost basis calculation of a mutual fund/ETF includes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains distributions. That may be necessary for tax purposes but it is very confusing to me since it does not tell me the actual cost of the investment, i.e., how much I paid for it when I bough...
by mpt follower
Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quicken: mutual fund/ETF cost basis. Help!
Replies: 6
Views: 299

Re: A case for long term government bonds

No idea on the specifics of where to get details on the returns for rolling a 30 year zero, but a $10,000 investment in VWESX (Vanguard's Long-Term Corporate bond fund) would have grown to $223,507.01 from 1981-Present whereas the S&P grew from $135.76 to $2,099.68, which would equate to $10,00...
by mpt follower
Thu Feb 19, 2015 7:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case for long term government bonds
Replies: 40
Views: 3103

A case for long term government bonds

In a recent article, Mr. Shilling makes a case for long term government bonds based on his premise that we are in a deflationary mode. (see Gary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds, February 17, 2015, by Robert Huebscher. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters15/Why_You_Should_Own_Bonds.php)...
by mpt follower
Thu Feb 19, 2015 6:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case for long term government bonds
Replies: 40
Views: 3103

Re: Tolerance for "rebalancing risk" in retirement

My view is that the best way to face a 2008 crisis is to hold an investment, i.e., fund or ETF with a build in asset allocation that meets your needs. This way you need to do nothing.
by mpt follower
Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tolerance for "rebalancing risk" in retirement
Replies: 29
Views: 1575

Re: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller

Although not the only point of the article, but I think a significant one, is his criticism of the Fed actions. His negatives comments about governments' tolerance of excessive credit expansion is another way to criticize QEs/low interest rates. I fully agree! It happened during the Greenspan area a...
by mpt follower
Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Future According to Yale Star Robert J. Shiller
Replies: 86
Views: 10167

Build large equity position gradually or in one purchase?

Helping a friend who is currently fully invested in intermediate term bond funds diversify by adding stocks to his allocation, my dilemma, given valuations, is whether his stock allocation should be built gradually, and if yes how, or in one purchase. This is an individual with substantial wealth, t...
by mpt follower
Wed Feb 04, 2015 12:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Build large equity position gradually or in one purchase?
Replies: 6
Views: 732

Re: Pls challenge my One ETF approach - Belgium

I have only one ETF that covers all my equity needs: Vanguard world stock (in the states VT.) Vanguard Europe also offers it. i suggest you consider this option.
by mpt follower
Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pls challenge my One ETF approach - Belgium
Replies: 2
Views: 299

Re: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

Can anyone find anything by Faber that explains the rationale for these two seemingly near-duplicate holdings? 3.03% SPDR BARCLAYS TIPS ETF IPE 3.031% SCHWAB U.S. TIPS ETF SCHP IPE: "The SPDR® Barclays TIPS ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond gene...
by mpt follower
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1375

Re: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

It holds many ETFs but it's the ultimate ending point of much of the discussions on this forum. Tilting towards size, value, momentum, REITs. Using commodities & TIPS to insure against unexpected inflation. Using long-term bonds for flight-to-safety and deflation. If you made up an AA that used...
by mpt follower
Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1375

Re: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

When will folks stop falling on the feets of their idols? It amazes me that folks just can't figure out in their brains that no matter how smart someone else is they do NOT have some special prognostic abilities beyond the fortune teller down the street. I can tell you the same thing as I did befor...
by mpt follower
Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1375

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

Although I own only 2 stock ETFs, 90% VT and 10% VWO (to tilt a bit towards emerging), I agree that it really does not matter much if the allocation is one way or another with respect to US vs rest of the world. At the end when we diversify in the stock space (oppose to stocks versus bonds), we do i...
by mpt follower
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1454

Re: Do you encrypt financial/investment documents on your PC

i have all my passwords, CC numbers, and other confidential information stored in my computer in SAFE HOUSE, an Encryption Software. I hope that it is safe, but do not know. Anyone using it?
by mpt follower
Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you encrypt financial/investment documents on your PC?
Replies: 37
Views: 2019

Re: Buying Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)??

My husband is wanting to...I roll my eyes a bit at his market timing inclinations, but as long as he agrees to hold it forever - i.e. at least 15 years - then I don't care. It'll be a tiny portion of our total portfolio, and it does seem like a decent time to get in for the long haul. I'd rather hi...
by mpt follower
Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)??
Replies: 4
Views: 412

Buying Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)??

Is anyone buying Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)? So very tempting as a long term investment
by mpt follower
Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)??
Replies: 4
Views: 412

Re: Transcendental meditation

Try the old fashion medicine for stress, unhappiness, etc., make a point to meet often with friends you treasured with a glass of wine and enjoy life.
by mpt follower
Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Transcendental meditation
Replies: 38
Views: 2336

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Because of all these unknowns, basically not knowing which market will do well and which not, for a long time I have opted to not take a position and simply invest in a global equity fund, like VT or ACWI. Some years I win, some years I lose, but in the long term I cannot be wrong. With respect to F...
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 296
Views: 35792

Re: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?

Annual return=4.9% nominal (estimate 3% real) with 70% fixed income. Retired, more interested in capital preservation.
by mpt follower
Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?
Replies: 144
Views: 14447

GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation

This last month, Mebane Faber, from Cambria Funds, came out with a very attractive, one stop global asset allocation investment, the GAA etf. What makes this offering so attractive to Bogleheads is that it is a fund of funds that subscribes to a passive, low cost, index only approach. As stated in t...
by mpt follower
Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GAA ETF - a Global Asset Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1375

Re: Active total bond fund

These are the reasons that I am leaning toward an active bond fund, like Pimco's. I know that this is not popular among index people, and that includes me, but it is the best option I have found. Why would you pay an ER of 0.5% or more (depending on share class) for PIMCO Total Return? Especially w...
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active total bond fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1001

Re: Active total bond fund

On the other hand, I wouldn't go all the way to corporates. I'd keep these Treasury positions. So, if we don't have an index fund that accurately reflects the total bond market for U.S. investors, you maybe take half of that and put it in a corporate-bond index fund. So, why not do exactly what he ...
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active total bond fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1001

Re: Active total bond fund

What about Pimco's total bond?
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 31, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active total bond fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1001

Active total bond fund

Following Bogle's concern with the high allocation of treasuries in the total bond index, which I also share, I have found no other alternative than to use a conservative actively managed total bond fund. I know that there are people here that do not think that this is significant, but for those tha...
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active total bond fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1001

Re: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??

Thank you Cruncher!
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??
Replies: 15
Views: 2338

Re: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??

Since this is not a new bond, I am confused on how to enter the data in my Quicken. Here are the details To add to my 5 year TIPs ladder, yesterday I participated in the auction. Here is what Fidelity shows: Shares 84,000 Price 98.8529 Amount $84,169.17 Interest $22.51 However, based on what I paid ...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 yr TIPs auction Dec 2014??
Replies: 15
Views: 2338

Re: CD or Treasury ladder trade-off

Treasuries is an extremely efficient market with high demand by very big players; therefore, the yields you would get are about the lowest. Further, given that rates are either going to stay flat or go up, CDs for the duration you have in mind are far superior.
by mpt follower
Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD or Treasury ladder trade-off
Replies: 29
Views: 1666

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

I have favored the low volatility emerging markets ETF, EEMV. Does anyone own it?
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18838

Re: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?

With oil dropping the way it is and all the uncertainty and fears surrounding the european markets and the end of QE..think a crash is pending? I apologize for those that make fan of your question. Trust me, they will not tell you but most fear as much as you and I do. The answer, of course, is tha...
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5804

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Angst:

Yes, you understood it well. By the way, go to that website and you can run statistics in real terms.
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2819

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

I'm gonna do some quick math here: (5x52x5)-(12x5)=1240 That is, 5 years times 52 weeks times 5 days/week minus, oh... 12 holidays/yr times 5 years equals roughly 1240 data points in each of these 5-year graphic snapshots. Ignoring the possible absence of data to the left of Jan 1st 1970, and the c...
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2819

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Blue wrote:I couldn't get the links to the article to work either.


There is something wrong with the site. I downloaded the paper, is there anyway that I can somehow attach it here?
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2819

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

What the article shows is that over any given time period that is meaningful to most investors -- such as 5 to 15 years -- you have no idea what asset returns are going to be, even relative to one another. Presumably if you have a half century to spare, things will play out as expected at least in ...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2819

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

The virtue of the article is that it demonstrates that things can easily go contrary to what we hope over a 5 year period. The problem with the article is that it implies that if we wait long enough, things will certainly be fine. Many people don't have a 45 year time frame and might want to take t...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2819

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Scary!!! Or am I wrong? After reading the article I can only conclude that to assure succeed in the stock market, meaning that it will follow the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis for what Bogleheads based their strategy, may require too long of a time period. The article shows that ...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2819

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Scary!!! Or am I wrong? After reading the article I can only conclude that to assure succeed in the stock market, meaning that it will follow the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis for what Bogleheads based their strategy, may require too long of a time period. The article shows that ...
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2819

Re: Energy sector

, but do you think that Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Shell, and BP will be struggling in the long run? Well I'm no expert on this but seems to me that if in a few decades from now, everyone is driving battery or fuel cell powered cars, and using electric heat, etc, then hydrocarbon demand and pr...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 56
Views: 4763

Re: Energy sector

I expect the energy sector to suffer in the long run, as solar energy costs and energy storage capacity and costs all continue to improve exponentially. There is a risk that this won't happen, peak oil will hit us hard, and economies will suffer. Because of this and because energy looks cheap today...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 56
Views: 4763

Re: Energy sector

A barrel of WTI sold for $10 in 1997. It could go to $30 but if it stays there for a long period of time, you'll see a lot of firms either merge or go out of business. So if you are going to overweigh, make sure you focus on those firms which are conservatively run and have a lot of proved reserves...
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 56
Views: 4763

Energy sector

Oil has gone from 110+ down to 65 in a few months.
Is it time to overweight the energy sector?
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector
Replies: 56
Views: 4763

Re: Adjusting Core Four to include a slice of a single stock

This not exact science. If you feel so strongly about that stock, I would just treat it as an independent, unrelated investment.
by mpt follower
Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting Core Four to include a slice of a single stock?
Replies: 12
Views: 827

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I have enjoyed this discussion of retirement risk management investing. I was interested to read a recent discussion by Michael Kitces https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-sequence-of-return-risk-with-bucket-strategies-vs-a-total-return-rebalancing-approach/ where ,while not directly addressing his...
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 9737

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I have enjoyed this discussion of retirement risk management investing. I was interested to read a recent discussion by Michael Kitces https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-sequence-of-return-risk-with-bucket-strategies-vs-a-total-return-rebalancing-approach/ where ,while not directly addressing his...
by mpt follower
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 9737

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

One additional question not asked as of yet... I have all of the dividends from my taxable accounts deposited into my checking account each month/quarter. This reduces my need to tap principle in my investment accounts. In looking at 25 years of safe assets, should one consider your annual need fro...
by mpt follower
Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 9737

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I agree on all is being said here and my plan, presented arlier reflects it. My only issue, or rather question is whether keeping the bonds in funds is the way to go. If one follows Bodie's approach, it is better to develop a ladder of TIPs. Any comments?
by mpt follower
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 9737

Re: Real Return/Risk Assumptions

TIPs may be an attractive proposition in today's environment. The real yield of 5 year TIP to be auctioned on 18 Dec. most likely will be positive. Last time I checked it was +0.24. Pitiful, but better than a few months ago when it was negative.
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return/Risk Assumptions
Replies: 5
Views: 669

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

Bernstein hits a very significant challenge for retirees. As one in retirement, like me, that went through the 2008 crisis already in retirement, this is something that concerns me much. In a recent post I presented my ideas and got one single comment. I will repeat my plan here hoping to get more i...
by mpt follower
Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 9737

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Check this out. A detailed methodology for investing using momentum+value:
The Case for Value and Momentum at the Asset Class Level
http://www.elmfunds.com/uploads/1/2/0/2 ... .03.13.pdf
by mpt follower
Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 116
Views: 14118
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