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Re: Cedar Plank Siding

30 years on the cedar. You can reapply the stain more often.
by mlewis
Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cedar Plank Siding
Replies: 14
Views: 998

Re: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return

Value is value. Whether you invest in small value, large value or total market value market is irrelevant. What maters is the overall value tilt in entire portfolio. Rick Ferri I have a hard time seeing this. Do you have more information on this idea? You are essentially saying these two portfolios...
by mlewis
Mon Jul 15, 2013 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return
Replies: 20
Views: 2186

Re: What George Constanza has to teach us about investing

I pulled this sentence from the 2nd to last paragraph of the article. "Similarly, while the markets rebounded from hitting bottom on March 6, 2009, investors pulled billions of dollars out of stocks." Could somebody explain this to me a bit. As I would tell it, stock prices get bid up and ...
by mlewis
Mon Jul 15, 2013 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What George Constanza has to teach us about investing
Replies: 28
Views: 4321

Re: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return

So it seems from this, and just from your portfolio in general (http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=58709) that you are a fan of getting some SCV but not bothering with any value tilt in the LC arena. Are you suggesting there isn't really a value premium on its own, or that it isn't wort...
by mlewis
Mon Jul 15, 2013 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Splitting Growth And Value Leads To A Worse Return
Replies: 20
Views: 2186

Re: 57, quit working, $700,000

An oft quoted rule of thumb is that you can withdraw an inflation adjusted 4% of your portfolio per year to use towards expenses. I think many people on this board would even agree that 4% could be a risky bet in this environment. 3% would be safer, especially if you are on the younger side, as you ...
by mlewis
Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 57, quit working, $700,000
Replies: 59
Views: 10291

Re: Tax question: Spec Home

Gdaleo1 Thanks for your reply. One follow-up question to your final point: If the gain on the house is passed along as a capital gain, that makes me assume that I must "pay" myself a wage. If I were using personal funds to finance the project, for example, I would think I'd have to record ...
by mlewis
Sat Jun 22, 2013 10:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question: Spec Home
Replies: 4
Views: 749

Re: Tax question: Spec Home

I think step 0 would be to determine the legal status of your business. Would income be to you or to the business? How will you track and pay expenses to plumbers, electricians, etc.? Legal status determines tax rates and capital assets and such. I'd say that since the tools and truck can be used a...
by mlewis
Wed Jun 19, 2013 9:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question: Spec Home
Replies: 4
Views: 749

Re: Interest free loan?

No reason not to if you would spend the money anyway.

Inflation exists. It's like free money.
by mlewis
Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interest free loan?
Replies: 18
Views: 865

Tax question: Spec Home

For the tax gurus out there: I'm a young carpenter and thinking of starting my own business (it would be a partnership with one other person- both general partners) and building a spec home. I'm pretty good with my personal taxes but trying to wrap my head around the tax implications of the various ...
by mlewis
Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question: Spec Home
Replies: 4
Views: 749

Re: Asset Allocation

Chris M: I do agree with you that MLewis answer was excellent and so is yours. As a result I have began to take steps (by opening up a bond fund account with Vanguard-Total Bond Fund) and transferring IRA money to it so it remains non-taxable. In regards to health care fund I am aware of the danger...
by mlewis
Fri May 31, 2013 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 24
Views: 1580

Re: Any Veteran Value Averagers Out There?

I've read it, liked it, and been quite interested in the practice. However, to the OP- a moving target sounds like a recipe for a constant stream of questions, calculations, and opportunities to second guess yourself. Especially if you want to S+D, I think VA makes less and less practical sense. I t...
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Veteran Value Averagers Out There?
Replies: 12
Views: 833

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

HomerJ wrote:
hicabob wrote:I don't care how "nice" he is. He does more harm than good in this world. Real people lose real money because of his show.


Tax on the gullible.
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 6872

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

As far as the six month period, what period would you suggest? Any time period you picked IN ADVANCE would be fine with me. Too late for that in this case. It would also help if you laid out the terms of the study, again, in advance. Otherwise, it's a silly exercise, and the luck may lie with you, ...
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 6872

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

We are on with this wager. Using the same methodology in this piece, give me two stocks today that will be in the top 4 performers of the 749 in the Wilshire Large Cap index. I think we’re misunderstanding the rules of the wager. I’m willing to play the role of Cramer in the article (i.e., making h...
by mlewis
Tue May 28, 2013 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 6872

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

This is just downright wrong Allan. If he had made a call of either buy or sell on every stock, then every stock has 1/2 odds of being sell. Since he predicted every stock in this hypothetical scenario he would be guaranteed to have selected the top four performers, the only question would be wheth...
by mlewis
Mon May 27, 2013 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 6872

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

I'm all for bashing Cramer, but the author of this article just cherry picked a couple of Cramer's predictions (from among hundreds if not thousands) and had the audacity to call his article a "statistical analysis"... Here's some more good analysis by said author. http://www.cbsnews.com/...
by mlewis
Mon May 27, 2013 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 6872

Re: Asset Allocation

Interesting to mention that my wife and I put the exact same amount on a Roth IRA but on different funds. She invested in Health Care and myself on Windsor and she has done much better than me (I did see the light several years ago and changed course). Guitar Player Health Care may have done very w...
by mlewis
Mon May 27, 2013 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 24
Views: 1580

Re: Advice Needed

Agree with Laura.

Be a little more conservative and try to ignore your investments as much as possible.

Disagree strongly with Tibbitts. I see his strategy as very high risk and very low reward. The makings of a foolish market-timing undertaking and more worries then you need.

malcolm
by mlewis
Sat May 25, 2013 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice Needed
Replies: 17
Views: 1285

Re: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?

My answer is no, but I would like to theoretically. I haven't found any way to work this into a strategy at this point. I don't want to start doing something then change it around all the time that's for sure. I wan't to be really sure of it. There certainly isn't any perfect answer, and it's a movi...
by mlewis
Wed May 22, 2013 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?
Replies: 94
Views: 5006

Re: Allan Roth/ Wealth Logic

I hope I don't offend anybody, but I have wondered for a while about something I heard Allen say in a boglehead expert panel session video I watched online. If I remember correctly, the panel was talking about international allocation. Rick Ferri said something like how he split Euro/Pacific 50/50, ...
by mlewis
Wed May 22, 2013 11:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Allan Roth/ Wealth Logic
Replies: 9
Views: 1612

Re: what to do with unsellable land

The land is not likely "unsellable." You have simply not lowered the price enough to entice the right buyer out of the woodwork.

Perhaps you think of it as unsellable because it seems unthinkable how little it may actually be worth on the open market.
by mlewis
Sat May 18, 2013 12:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what to do with unsellable land
Replies: 32
Views: 2555

Re: Your Dumbest Financial Move

Bought some call LEAPs of Citi that expired (useless, of course) at a strike of 7.50 ($75 after the reverse split) in Jan 2012, purchased about 18 months before. Luckily, realizing along the way it just wasn't going to happen, I sold most of them, but at a sizable loss. It was a good amount of money...
by mlewis
Wed May 01, 2013 12:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Dumbest Financial Move
Replies: 166
Views: 13148

Re: Small Cap Value [How to analyze a small sample size?]

The more stocks you hold the less impact a single big winner will have on the whole (assuming equal weighted). Whilst the best performer out of a fewer number might not be such an outstanding winner, when that relatively smaller big gain is shared across a fewer total number of stocks the overall b...
by mlewis
Mon Apr 29, 2013 8:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value [How to analyze a small sample size?]
Replies: 13
Views: 1217

Re: Small Cap Value [How to analyze a small sample size?]

If you don't own them all you risk missing out on the big winners.

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/900/15st.htm

malcolm
by mlewis
Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value [How to analyze a small sample size?]
Replies: 13
Views: 1217

Re: Food Costs

1) Do nearly all of our grocery and sundry shopping at WinCo, which is the local low price chain. They're cheaper than Walmart, Fred Meyers, Albertsons, Costco and anything else I've checked. It's a warehouse store where you bag your own groceries. For any thrifty boglehead that has never experienc...
by mlewis
Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Food Costs
Replies: 153
Views: 10560

Re: Taxes, cap Gains & Inherited Money?

yes, i just read about how the valuation date/price is changed to the date of death, not the date/price of original purchased. I think there is an option to take the value at something like 6 months instead of the date of death. See what you can find about that - it may be more convenient. This onl...
by mlewis
Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxes, cap Gains & Inherited Money?
Replies: 10
Views: 496

Re: The Frontline Retirement Episode

No, I would continue to contribute to the company plan up to the amount that is matched. That way you're not turning down free money. After that, contribute additional funds available to an IRA at Vanguard, for example. If you still have money you want to save for retirement, put more into the compa...
by mlewis
Sat Apr 27, 2013 6:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Frontline Retirement Episode
Replies: 16
Views: 1836

Poll: Interest rates and debts worth paying off

I am curious what people consider to be a break-even point for intrest rates on debts when it comes to saving/investing versus paying off those debts.
by mlewis
Sat Apr 27, 2013 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Interest rates and debts worth paying off
Replies: 8
Views: 809

Poll: Owning bonds and having debt

I am curious how many of you adjust your AA and to what extent if you currently have any debts, even a low interest car loan or mortgage. In this low interest rate environment it would seem logical, if you have a decent chunk of bonds in your portfolio, to use a bunch of it to just pay off debt and ...
by mlewis
Sat Apr 27, 2013 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Owning bonds and having debt
Replies: 10
Views: 866

Re: Your Move, Bogleheads: Advisor Finds DFA’s Returns Trump

I think it is very difficult to simply add up the additional costs an investor would pay to have an advisor and access DFA funds and make a straight performance comparison. Most people that have an advisor are not simply hiring that person just to get access to DFA. A good advisor will offer a lot m...
by mlewis
Thu Apr 25, 2013 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Move, Bogleheads: Advisor Finds DFA’s Returns Trump Van
Replies: 71
Views: 5012

Re: Potential advisor/Portfolio

I am familiar with Nick Murray. He wrote a book for financial advisors that did pretty well, it was published in mid/late 90's. He formulated his beliefs during a long, powerful bull market. I've read his book and there is good stuff in it, but the advice he gives on investing I would not agree with...
by mlewis
Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Potential advisor/Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 936

Re: Do you believe this about Social Security?

The program's actuarial neutrality varies over time as market interest rates move. When real interest rates are low, it becomes relatively more advantageous for people to delay taking benefits. +1 It depends or market conditions and/or what you deem an appropriate discount rate to be. The current f...
by mlewis
Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]
Replies: 37
Views: 3198

Re: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.

TexasInvestor- Most people have said you needed more bonds. I'll be going against the crowd, but I don't think that's necessarily true. With 7 million bucks and $100,000 in income needs, you don't need much of a strategy really. That's only a 1.4% withdrawal rate. (not including what SS will chip in...
by mlewis
Tue Apr 16, 2013 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.
Replies: 105
Views: 12028

Re: Newbie question about Vanguard Fund

But at least this loss has motivated me to start researching and to suggest to my spouse that we not make these sorts of investments and to try to do something a bit more constructive. So I ended up here on this forum.... If you had made a killing on your ABX trade, it probably would have been one ...
by mlewis
Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question about Vanguard Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1357

Re: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns

For the non-experienced among us, would there be any difference in long-term returns if rebalancing were accomplished by changing the allocation of new contributions? Those of us who are still funding our investments on a bi-weekly (or however often) basis do have the option of changing our proport...
by mlewis
Sun Apr 14, 2013 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns
Replies: 53
Views: 5893

Re: Newbie question about Vanguard Fund

Don't feel too overwhelmed. There are people here that are very educated in the finance realm, and many that are not. It can take a little while to get a good handle on things, and yes many people here have been on this track for a long time, but it doesn't have to be super complicated. The Boglehea...
by mlewis
Sun Apr 14, 2013 3:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question about Vanguard Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1357

Re: Newbie question about Vanguard Fund

I suggest you commit some time to learning some basics first. Read a good book, there is a good reading list on Bogleheads. I think a good starter book- short and sweet- is this one: http://www.amazon.com/The-Elements-Investing-Lessons-Investor/dp/1118484878/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1365893675&...
by mlewis
Sat Apr 13, 2013 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie question about Vanguard Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1357

Re: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns

malcolm Sorry --please explain why if day 1 you decide on 60/40 as the right amount of risk for you, and the next day no assumptions have changed but your AA has changed what logic are you using to allow the market instead of you to determine your AA. There isn't any. Any other argument is basicall...
by mlewis
Sat Apr 13, 2013 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns
Replies: 53
Views: 5893

Re: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns

mlewis Simple answer is this: IF today you decide to be 60/40 and tomorrow market moves you to 55/45 what logic is there to allow the market to change your AA if your assumptions about ability, willingness and need to take risk have not changed. The answer is obviously no logic. Thus you should reb...
by mlewis
Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns
Replies: 53
Views: 5893

Re: Insulation Question

I think you should try adding the insulation, to R-30 or so as has been suggested, with blown cellulose or blown fiberglass. See how that works for you. Trying to shade your bedroom windows in some way if they get western sun is also very important, especially if those trees are not tall enough yet....
by mlewis
Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insulation Question
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns

Sam First, in a world without frictions (costs) rebalancing should be done DAILY, otherwise you have allowed the MARKET to control your AA and thus the risk of your portfolio which makes no sense whatsover. Larry I disagree. This might be true if your only goal is to control risk and not to also ho...
by mlewis
Wed Apr 10, 2013 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb Idea: Rebalancing Boosts Returns
Replies: 53
Views: 5893

Re: Challenging question on cost for investment pros

The description by the OP may be accurate, but is probably not communicated well. For example, it looks like there is 8.6% front-end load on $20,000 per year contributions. Maybe some of that load pays for life insurance, but it was not stated. The other fees charged by the product are not clear. A...
by mlewis
Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Challenging question on cost for investment pros
Replies: 17
Views: 1460

Re: DFA - again - DFLVX Kills Vanguard - Pay admission?

But a fund isn't inherently better because it provides more of a load; you decide how much of the load you want, and add the appropriate amount. If the DFA fund has twice the value exposure of the Vanguard fund, then you can get the same exposure by holding $10,000 in the DFA value fund and $10,000...
by mlewis
Fri Mar 29, 2013 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DFA - again - DFLVX Kills Vanguard - Pay admission?
Replies: 30
Views: 3323

Re: To max... or not to max... 401k?

if you want to rollover your old 401k roll it into an IRA, not your new 401k. that will give you all the options you want.
by mlewis
Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To max... or not to max... 401k?
Replies: 18
Views: 2623

Re: DFA - again - DFLVX Kills Vanguard - Pay admission?

Once again, please do not compare funds with the same "name". DFA large-cap value does not hold the same stocks as Vanguard large-cap value. Instead, compare funds with the same factor loads. I see this argument from time to time, but I'm not sure I understand it entirely. DFA and Vanguar...
by mlewis
Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DFA - again - DFLVX Kills Vanguard - Pay admission?
Replies: 30
Views: 3323

Re: Market Timing

I'm not trying to "beat" the market, just stay with it, so I will mainly have index funds, at least until I hit the 6-digit mark . Best of luck. After you finish Four Pillars , you will no doubt find that your above sentence would be much better with the portions in blue eliminated. Don't...
by mlewis
Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 11
Views: 1082

Re: retirement vs. student loan debt

First, IMO plan B is not a good idea. it would be silly not to take advantage of the company match at a minimum. Out of the three options you list, I would probably choose A. Like you say, there isn't necessarily a right answer. A 5% rate is moderate. (3% is nearly free, since inflation is probably ...
by mlewis
Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: retirement vs. student loan debt
Replies: 3
Views: 552

Re: When to do Tax Gain Harvesting?

A round trip trade would cost you 0.7% of the value of your holding. Not something I would want to repeat year after year, as that is a real drag on returns. But you raise a good point, and I think the answer depends more on your specific circumstances and how you foresee things happening/changing i...
by mlewis
Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to do Tax Gain Harvesting?
Replies: 12
Views: 594

Re: Stock Returns in late 1800s

Robert Schiller posts data on S&P prices (or perhaps some substitute for?) dating to 1871. He got his pre-1926 data from some book published in 1939.

See his site:

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

malcolm
by mlewis
Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Returns in late 1800s
Replies: 9
Views: 773

Re: registered financial advisor [Looking for, Raleigh NC]

Your list is rediculously incomplete. You probably omitted 98%. I started making the list a few months ago. If anybody knows of any advisors around the country who fullfil the two basic criteria (both fee-only and passive investments) I have set for it, please let me know. I know that it is incompl...
by mlewis
Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: registered financial advisor [Looking for, Raleigh NC]
Replies: 10
Views: 626
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