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Re: Help with a large business decision

I guess my biggest fear is I just am having my best year ever and I would hate to sink the fruits of my labor into this upgrade and then have business go bad and lose it all. southwest_stacker But the risk for that happening seems low - see if you buy this equipment outright, you are not leveraged ...
by michaelsieg
Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with a large business decision [capital expenditure]
Replies: 36
Views: 1344

Re: Help with a large business decision

You mention that you could do the work in half the time with the new equipment - so the question I would ask is: What the limiting factor to do more business is in your situation? - are you currently limited by the time for each project or do you have downtime between projects and the project volume...
by michaelsieg
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with a large business decision [capital expenditure]
Replies: 36
Views: 1344

Re: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy

The most painful 'good" book I remember reading was one hundred years of solitude, we had to read it in school and for some reason it was very popular...may be I was too young back then, but I have no intention to look into it again.
by michaelsieg
Tue Sep 09, 2014 12:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy
Replies: 204
Views: 9438

Re: Anyone familiar with Switzerland?

I grew up in Bern, you will like it, even though it is not as fast paced such as Zuerich or Basel. If you like to hike, go in the Bernese mountains, you should consider going to Grindelwald or Muerren. (great hikes in those areas) and consider taking the train up to the Jungfraujoch. Interlaken, abo...
by michaelsieg
Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone familiar with Switzerland?
Replies: 14
Views: 1056

Re: Ideas for thanking a doctor

Just enjoyed a bottle of a nice burgundy wine with our family tonight - a physician colleague gave it to me after I fixed his torn aorta on my birthday this winter - him doing well and being back to work was probably the best birthday gift I have gotten in a long time...but I agree, a letter or a ca...
by michaelsieg
Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ideas for thanking a doctor
Replies: 74
Views: 4562

Re: Beat The Street's Permanent Portfolio

Thanks for posting!
I wonder how the portfolio would look with intermediate treasuries or an intermediate treasury fund...the term risk with current interest rates just seems high to me...(I know, they might stay low for a very long time and nobody knows...)
by michaelsieg
Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beat The Street's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 36
Views: 3114

Re: Sources for Discovering Dishwasher Quality

We bought a Kenmore elite that was ranking high on CR last year on black Friday, it was something like $600 off. Installed it myself with a friend and we have been extremely happy with it. Clean dishes and you barely can hear that it is on. One disadvantage of these new dishwashers though it that th...
by michaelsieg
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sources for Discovering Dishwasher Quality
Replies: 36
Views: 1901

Re: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)

"adding SV and more bonds to market/bonds portfolio will increase the expected return at the same risk. Can you prove the above statement using your risk definition in Q1? "Note 1: The above statement says "will increase" not "has increased. Not sure if this was said before...
by michaelsieg
Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
Replies: 79
Views: 4102

Re: Goodbye and Good Luck!

Thank you - your insightful posts will be missed
Best wishes
Michael
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Goodbye and Good Luck!
Replies: 12
Views: 2616

Re: favorite bogleheads posts?

Matjen wrote: Robert T.'s monster post "Collected Thoughts" is my favorite post of all time. Even if you prefer to just go with a 3-Fund or with LIfeStrategy rather than any type of tilt this is still a great resource. Same here, there are great discussions and much to learn (for me) on th...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: favorite bogleheads posts?
Replies: 53
Views: 5058

Re: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?

I did buy with a friend into a medical startup (I liked the concept to increase patient safety and the idea and felt there would be a new market for their products). It was a a small fraction of my portfolio in 2007, before I knew about the bogleheads or diehards. I considered it play money and gave...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?
Replies: 95
Views: 5816

Re: If Argentina Defaults

Even if Argentina was going to default, your conclusion regarding buying Argentinian currency is not wise. The most commonly mechanism to escape default for a government that can't pay it's debt is to print more of it's currency and inflate the debt away. (That was Greece's problem, they were tied t...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 21
Views: 2053

Re: If You Can Free Kindle/NOT Free Paperback Available

Thanks for the free download today!
My wife just downloaded it on her kindle, it will be the first book I read on a kindle. Perfect for a nice beach day at Cape Cod.
by michaelsieg
Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Can Free Kindle/NOT Free Paperback Available
Replies: 9
Views: 1807

Re: Electric Bike

They are a huge growth segment in the European bike market. Electric bikes are more commonly used for daily commute and many people use them. The biketec flyer is a popular model in Switzerland - check the pictures out on the website, you could barely tell these are electrical bikes. http://www.flye...
by michaelsieg
Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric Bike
Replies: 16
Views: 2068

Re: Future plan with recent lung cancer diagnosis

I wish you all the best, I hope the work-up shows no distant disease and a locally resectable stage. I hope all goes well.
by michaelsieg
Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Future plan with recent lung cancer diagnosis
Replies: 25
Views: 3876

Re: [Housing] Are we in a position to buy DC-area real estat

I also would hold off for now. Once/if you have kids that decision will change, as you will want to have a home in a good school district once your kid is old enough to go to kindergarden. Most homes on the MD or VA side in good school districts will cost at least 600k - so I would continue to save ...
by michaelsieg
Fri Jul 04, 2014 11:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Housing] Are we in a position to buy DC-area real estate?
Replies: 9
Views: 816

Re: How to admit/should I admit alcohol problem to employer

I also would say be careful with some of the advice. Assuming that you have a leadership position within your company, it could be very harmful if people at work would know about your problem. Your problem is very common in Europe, where "high functioning alcoholism" is widespread. People ...
by michaelsieg
Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to admit/should I admit alcohol problem to employer
Replies: 111
Views: 13593

Re: Pay down (not off) mortgage?

Because of compound interest, an investment such as a muni fund works the same way. Of course you are right Grabiner. Sorry for my late response, work was just so busy. We are in a slightly different situation than the poster, as we are planning to stay in the house and pay it off. So when I pay of...
by michaelsieg
Fri Jul 04, 2014 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pay down (not off) mortgage?
Replies: 53
Views: 5008

Re: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?

Thanks Kayanco,
My wife did some reading about living there as a western women - I don't think she could accept many of the local rules anyways....so like anything else, finances are just one aspect of life's complex decisions....
by michaelsieg
Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?
Replies: 24
Views: 2684

Re: The Truth Hurts: CNBC

How does one accumulate $5 million without knowing how to save and budget?

It was probably a good divorce lawyer who "accumulated" it for her :happy
by michaelsieg
Wed Jul 02, 2014 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Truth Hurts: CNBC
Replies: 17
Views: 3519

Re: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?

Good points - my wife and kids are US citizens - I don't think I am allowed to keep the green card if I live abroad, I think I have to turn it in. But you are right, the process of getting it took a while, I was hoping the second time around would be quicker. Not sure how the years with it would cou...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:43 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?
Replies: 24
Views: 2684

Re: Pay down (not off) mortgage?

I struggle with the same decision - running out of tax sheltered space for my bonds and try to decide if I should pay down my mortgage vs. buy a muni bond fund. One advantage that paying down a mortgage has (if you have enough liquidity) is what I think of as "upfront compounding" - it see...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pay down (not off) mortgage?
Replies: 53
Views: 5008

Re: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?

Sorry, didn't want to kill the thread. But if I end up going there, I will PM you and we will have a local boglehead meeting :happy
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?
Replies: 24
Views: 2684

Re: Hitting "The Number" too early

Congratulations on being there (or almost there) at such a young age! How did you calculate/estimate your number? Was it annal expenses x 25 or more conservatively x35? Or do you use a more elaborate method to estimate the savings target? Just curious, as I struggle myself trying to set a clear targ...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hitting "The Number" too early
Replies: 49
Views: 5444

Re: New Attending Physician Tomorrow Advice?

Remember that it is about lifelong learning. Always say please and thank you. Listen to your patients and staff. Ask for help of your partners/collegues if you have a difficult problem to solve. Document your thoughts about a problem and why you choose to do what you decide to do. Especially if situ...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Attending Physician Tomorrow Advice?
Replies: 17
Views: 2189

Re: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?

I currently have an offer to take a position in a neighboring country, also no income tax. Many people there go to Dubai for weekend trips. I have a green card and currently live in the US. So I could turn my green card in and then really have tax free income for a few years - but money is not every...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Any Bogleheads in Dubai?
Replies: 24
Views: 2684

Re: My investments are a disaster

Again, I suggest a cash buffer and the rest in Target Retirement 2010 or Target Retirement 2015 That is certainly a good option, but I am not sure if they even need to take that much risk. The 2010 Target retirement fund has 38.8% Stocks, the target 2015 has 52% equity. It might be more prudent, gi...
by michaelsieg
Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My investments are a disaster
Replies: 55
Views: 6411

Re: My investments are a disaster

If your brain is telling you that you're not comfortable with investing with the markets at the current levels, why rush into a portfolio heavily weighted in stocks? Once you have won the game, I would also err on the conservative side. I didn't see how much the stable value fund of your husband's ...
by michaelsieg
Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My investments are a disaster
Replies: 55
Views: 6411

Re: Cost of car compared to Gross Income

I think the income you have matters less than the assets that you own. A car probably should not be worth more than 10% of your assets - which is also hard to do, especially if you are young. On another note: A quick search online tells me there are currently 11 Honda Civics for $5K or less within 1...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jun 21, 2014 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of car compared to Gross Income
Replies: 82
Views: 4718

Re: Raft Stategy

Since I get the lump sum for retiring early, my gross will be almost 90,000 this year so was going to delay my annuity and the SS until next year. I am not sure if I understand this well, but it seems like you have a pension/annuity that you will get paid our as a lump sum? If this is true, before ...
by michaelsieg
Fri Jun 20, 2014 8:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Raft Stategy
Replies: 41
Views: 4234

Re: Raft Stategy

I just divide it up and put it into the index funds all at once? Not a little at a time? That question gets discussed often on this forum, look in the google search box under lump sum investing versus DCA (dollar cost averaging) You will find many passionate discussions - please let us know, what y...
by michaelsieg
Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Raft Stategy
Replies: 41
Views: 4234

Re: Personal Life subforum?

I kind of like the idea, but I am not sure if it would work and I don't have strong feelings either way. As it is, I probably already spend too much time on this forum... It is definitely a risky proposal, and like with any risk, probably the volatility and SD of the answers/opinions would increase....
by michaelsieg
Thu Jun 19, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Personal Life subforum?
Replies: 97
Views: 5072

Re: Lost a lot in stocks and starting fresh: Please Help

You are slowly moving into better territory, but I have to say, your debt level is still substantial and no emergency fund- I would be uncomfortable with this. You got lots of good advice here last summer, but one really important advice came from Calm Man about your wife working - I think this is r...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 16, 2014 11:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost a lot in stocks and starting fresh: Please Help
Replies: 90
Views: 12244

Re: Portfolio Advice Requested (thanks!)

When you click on the link, you see a Telltale chart constructed with your AA versus the life strategy growth fund. The graphic shows the results since early 2007, in your case, you would have to subtract about 7% in additional account fees, so that despite the higher risk (and fees) of the portfoli...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 16, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice Requested (thanks!)
Replies: 19
Views: 1713

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

in the 70s, yields were outrageously high. So it stands to reason that the turn on bonds since the 70s has been favorable. That just seems to be the case if you look at absolute yields and don't look at the inflation that made many investors loose money with bonds in the 70s. William Bernstein desc...
by michaelsieg
Sun Jun 15, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 3299

Re: Developing a sound framework for optimal asset allocatio

rca1824 wrote: Aim for "generational wealth": have so much wealth that you can afford to hold 100% equity and leave behind most of it for your heirs. Stay the course, and they may end up in the Forbes 100 list some day just through the miracle of compound growth. Wouldn't that be somethin...
by michaelsieg
Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Developing a sound framework for optimal asset allocation
Replies: 44
Views: 2828

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

Berntson,
Thanks for taking the time to explain, you make a lot more sense than I did late last night. I am also in the boring 50/50 club, I wish I had more time to go fishing.... :happy
Happy Father's day everyone! (and go Switzerland at noon today!)
Michael
by michaelsieg
Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 3299

Re: Portfolio Advice Requested (thanks!)

Questions: 1. The Raymond James portfolio was invested more than 20 years ago as the result of a windfall inheritance. Although we’ve been generally satisfied with its performance, the expense ratios and fees are a turn-off, and if we were starting over today, we’d probably do something much simple...
by michaelsieg
Sun Jun 15, 2014 1:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice Requested (thanks!)
Replies: 19
Views: 1713

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

Thanks Berntson, great spreadsheet Note that there is no adjustment for inflation. There's no need to because all we care about is the ratio of one portfolio's returns against the other. This seems to make sense, as inflation will affect each asset class the same way in a given year. But I have been...
by michaelsieg
Sun Jun 15, 2014 12:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 3299

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

Longinvest, Thanks so much for putting all the work into this and posting this - great data! Never looked at the Telltale chart the way you explained it. It is hard for me to believe that your are being criticized for posting this interesting data of the most recent 45 years based on Simba's workshe...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 3299

Re: Is this a foolish asset allocation?

rca1824 Thanks for posting your 30 year analysis. How did you do the rebalancing in your analysis over such long periods using monthly data? There are many ways to do an AA, but I would look at 30 year data cautiously and they are only part of the story. If you were to invest a lump sum now at the b...
by michaelsieg
Thu Jun 12, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a foolish asset allocation?
Replies: 42
Views: 3664

Re: Is this a foolish asset allocation?

I really need access to the raw 1926-present stock market data, but I have no idea where to find it. I have only found Yahoo Finance for financial data and it is severely limited. All the data you are looking for are downloadable in the link of Ken French's website, I gave you earlier. The market r...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jun 10, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a foolish asset allocation?
Replies: 42
Views: 3664

Re: Calculating asset location efficiency for diff. gross in

Theory, thanks for posting! From the article: Simply put: effective asset location decisions matter exponentially more for high-return investments than low-return investments. I struggle with the same issue and EmergDoc feels strongly that bonds should go in taxable for high income individuals and h...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating asset location efficiency for diff. gross income
Replies: 3
Views: 325

Re: Is this a foolish asset allocation?

In addition to the solo 401k you have the option of a SEP IRA - I would go to the wiki and read about these options for tax deferred investments. I am not sure if your proposed portfolio makes sense at this point for you - I would wait with slice and dice until your portfolio has a size of at least ...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a foolish asset allocation?
Replies: 42
Views: 3664

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

Or you can expect that the psychological sentiment of market players will build up towards enormous euphoria or towards deep depression. Thanks Victoria, I guess that could happen, but if I look back (for instance the last 15-20 years since I watch them), then moods/sentiments changed multiple time...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 17609

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

richard wrote That it's better at predicting 10 year returns than 1 year returns does not mean it does a good job of predicting 10 year returns. That is a good point, I think in the Vanguard paper that looked at this, about 40% of the long term returns were predicted by Schiller PE10. Really not th...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 17609

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

manwithnoname wrote This a joke right? no one can accurately forecast returns for the next 12 months, no less next 10 years. Its a waste of time to read stuff like this because it does not add any value. I also don't think that predictions have much value other than giving realistically low expecta...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 17609

Re: Switzerland itinerary feedback

iasc15 wrote Lake Como: We've decided to go for an expensive hotel there, and I think we've found the one. You also have a great itinerary. On Lake Como, make sure you go to the Villa d'Este, in Chernobbio - it is gorgeous and if you like Star Wars, you will recognize the scenery where Anakin and Pa...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switzerland itinerary feedback
Replies: 17
Views: 1131

Re: Switzerland itinerary feedback

Spend your final night in Bern by going to a famous old wine tavern, the Klötzlikeller. That is a great joyce! This restaurant goes back into the 1600s - for over 100 years it has been run by women (which is unusual in the previously male dominated Switzerland). I am from Switzerland and I like you...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switzerland itinerary feedback
Replies: 17
Views: 1131
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