Search found 415 matches

by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1742

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

as far as I know it's still considered developed in most indices

Thanks watchword - I hope for them they stay there
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 29, 2015 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 8932

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

Freefall?

I bet you someone will re-activate this thread by the end of the day... :happy
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 29, 2015 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1742

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

Just out of curiosity I did a cursory check of the 850 bond holdings in the fund (VGAVX) yesterday.
Vanguard didn't put any Greek government bonds in it, which at this point seems to be a good thing.
by michaelsieg
Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel to Greece
Replies: 58
Views: 4231

Re: Travel to Greece

Terrorism is covered, financial collapse is not typically covered by travel insurance. What would travel insurance get you? How would you make a claim? I think with many of these insurances you can cancel a flight and get your expense for the flight ticket reimbursed, in case you decide not to take...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1742

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

What strikes me is that the local EM debt and the non-local (US $ denominated) bonds have such a different expected return in the Research Affiliates graph that Maynard posted. I find that difficult to explain. I think the currency hedged funds like VGAVX probably should be counted to the local EM d...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 246
Views: 15327

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Just turned 50 - if I "annuitize" my future pensions, I would be 36% pensions, 33% equity and 30% bonds/stable value/gold.
Not counting the pensions, 47% bonds/stable value/gold and 53% equities.
by michaelsieg
Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel to Greece
Replies: 58
Views: 4231

Re: Travel to Greece

I would definitely book the flight - it might make sense to pay for travel insurance. We spent a few weeks on the islands years ago (before kids) and it is great - the hotels will still be there, no idea what currency you will need to pay for things, at any rate, they will likely accept Euros, even ...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help planning contributions so I can retire early
Replies: 17
Views: 1582

Re: Need help planning contributions so I can retire early

If you love what you are doing and stay up to date, you will be well worth your salary after you turn 50 - I would not worry about this now. In my field (medicine) most predictions about future needs and most job projections that I have seen have not panned out....except maybe that things are gettin...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help planning contributions so I can retire early
Replies: 17
Views: 1582

Re: Need help planning contributions so I can retire early

Not to go into your financial situation, you are 26 - it might make sense to choose a profession/career where you find it worth it to achieve something that is meaningful for you and to do something you love. Life will be hard if you go to work only if it is a means to retire early. I might be wrong...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jun 23, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5060

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

Thanks Countmein and Ketawa
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5060

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

I am not sure if showing underperformance of these funds versus a growth index or total stock index shows that the momentum strategy is difficult to implement or unsuccessful or too expensive to be successful. To show an ineffective implementation, I would think one would have to compare a momentum ...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jun 20, 2015 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: investing vs. mortgage payoff
Replies: 10
Views: 1815

Re: investing vs. mortgage payoff

Many people on this forum will recommend investing the extra money instead of paying off your mortgage. I think you and your husband's situation might be slightly different. First of all, you should plan on being done with mortgage payments by the time you and your husband plan to retire - so it mak...
by michaelsieg
Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch
Replies: 26
Views: 5317

Re: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch

The cases that I know of where stock markets went to zero or essentially zero where because the countries were on the losing end of a war. Think of Japan or Germany right after World War II. The Greek stock exchange might dip into that territory soon without a war....obviously I have no idea if glo...
by michaelsieg
Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sample Portfolio - Random Walk Down Wall Street
Replies: 60
Views: 6055

Re: Sample Portfolio - Random Walk Down Wall Street

Just trying to understand the two different EM debt categories on the above referenced RAFI website (and not sure which one B.M. plans to include in this portfolio) There is a category for local EM debt (JP Morgan EMBI plus) index and the other is non-local (JP Morgan GBI-EM) Index - the expected re...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jun 16, 2015 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Longtime Insurance Customers Get Ripped [overcharged]
Replies: 54
Views: 8388

Re: Longtime Insurance Customers Get Ripped [overcharged]

Had the same issue with Statefarm. They increased our HO insurance without telling us (only found out as escrow payments went up) and they also stepwise increased our car insurance. After a fender bender they were going to go up further on my policy, so I called Geico, and their rate (despite the fe...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Men's dress shirts - Charles Tyrwhitt shirts on sale for $29
Replies: 28
Views: 4632

Re: Men's dress shirts - Charles Tyrwhitt shirts on sale for $29

Thanks for posting. I didn't know my exact collar size when I was at work, and had to come home first to check my size. I really liked the shirts and the sale was still on earlier today. Now I know my size, but the sale is over....missed it....it really seems that this was a good deal - do they have...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jun 13, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 108
Views: 8671

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

Meynard, thanks for posting the zig-zag image of value versus growth performance. One would think that by rebalancing between value and growth, it should be possible to reap a rebalancing premium - a few years ago Rick Ferry wrote an article that due to cost this is not possible, but the curve would...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comments on my Retirement picture
Replies: 12
Views: 1714

Re: Comments on my Retirement picture

I am also trying to find out what your main concern is - it sounds to me that you are doing everything right. Is your concern outliving your portfolio with the current low bond /CD yields and a non COLA pension? If so, one thing that might be worth looking into in that case would be a deferred annui...
by michaelsieg
Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs
Replies: 239
Views: 25218

Re: Warning Signs

Thanks for this interesting post, Clearly_Irrational. I probably will not do anything with the information for now, just making sure that my equity/bonds allocation is where it is supposed to be...curious what the next FRED numbers will show next month. Also curious, what the Greeks will decide to d...
by michaelsieg
Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dishwasher lime/calcium build-up
Replies: 20
Views: 1599

Re: Dishwasher lime/calcium build-up

Yeah, I have already ordered DW magic from Amazon.. it will arrive next week and I will try it out.

When you get it, let us know how it worked!
by michaelsieg
Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dishwasher lime/calcium build-up
Replies: 20
Views: 1599

Re: Dishwasher lime/calcium build-up

Not sure if this has been said before. We have a lot of calcium build up too, I use "dishwasher magic" for our kenmore elite dishwasher once a month now, it does an incredible job in removing the calcium. It is available in our local hardware store.
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selected photos of 3-week bicycle ride around the Italian Lakes
Replies: 35
Views: 2851

Re: Selected photos of 3-week bicycle ride around the Italian Lakes

For the most part, I just smile and say that the key is keeping the pedals turning. Love it, and also your signature quote :happy - a quick "technical" question - what do you do with the (probably large) suitcase in which you transport the bike on your flight, once your are there and you ...
by michaelsieg
Sat May 30, 2015 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS says I owe money on Backdoor Roth
Replies: 16
Views: 2975

Re: IRS says I owe money on Backdoor Roth

Since it was non-deductible, it doesn't impact your 2013 taxes. So there is nothing to report on your 2013 taxes regarding this transaction . There are many experts in taxes on this forum and I am not one of them, but I made this mistake as mentioned above and I am pretty sure that you have to repo...
by michaelsieg
Sat May 30, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS says I owe money on Backdoor Roth
Replies: 16
Views: 2975

Re: IRS says I owe money on Backdoor Roth

I assume you converted money from a nondeductible IRA to a Roth. I made the mistake a few years ago, that I only reported the roth conversion and didn't fill out the 8606 with the nondeductible IRA contribution, so the IRS assumed this conversion taxable. We had to amend our tax returns and everythi...
by michaelsieg
Sat May 30, 2015 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: use emergency funds or borrow from HELOC
Replies: 16
Views: 1531

Re: use emergency funds or borrow from HELOC

Kevin,
You are right, what I wrote makes no sense for someone in retirement. I thought they were temporary out of work due to illness and then plan to return to work- I missed the part that they are retirees...I just hope that the medical expenses will go down, 8k a month seems really high.
by michaelsieg
Sat May 30, 2015 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts
Replies: 28
Views: 2393

Re: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts

Could may be different expected/possible inflation rates in the major economic zones be a reason to allocate some of the bonds in high quality hedged international bonds? Let's say the US would have 1-2% higher inflation than the eurozone, would an allocation in high quality bonds in the eurozone th...
by michaelsieg
Sat May 30, 2015 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts
Replies: 28
Views: 2393

Re: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts

Swenson writes in his book also that one should not include international bonds in one's AA. If I remember well, some of the reasons he mentioned was currency risk, the cost of currency hedging and credit quality. I am not sure about the rationale why VG changed some of their bond allocation to inte...
by michaelsieg
Fri May 29, 2015 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: use emergency funds or borrow from HELOC
Replies: 16
Views: 1531

Re: use emergency funds or borrow from HELOC

Sorry about your medical problems and I hope you will get better soon. I would ask the question: how can you make sure, that you won't run out of money for as long as possible, especially if the medical recovery takes longer than expected, (which can certainly happen). If there is no paycheck coming...
by michaelsieg
Fri May 29, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: lump sum divorce settlement
Replies: 31
Views: 4043

Re: lump sum divorce settlement

Normal dude wrote My point is that the OP should RUN THE NUMBERS before making a decision. I completely disagree as well. Live is about more than running numbers. One point that has not been mentioned are the effects on self esteem and self value and on the general outlook on life that a good educat...
by michaelsieg
Fri May 29, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What am I doing wrong ?
Replies: 39
Views: 4267

Re: What am I doing wrong ?

Thanks, why am i seeing ' instead of commas for the number separators and the final number is $333,000 yes ?

yes- I grew up in Switzerland, where we use the ', but we are now in the US and I am sorry I used the wrong format.
by michaelsieg
Fri May 29, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What am I doing wrong ?
Replies: 39
Views: 4267

Re: What am I doing wrong ?

Thanks for the great info. How did you get to $350k using 3% please ? I assumed you will need about $10'000/year from your savings once you and your wife get SS. I took a conservative "safe" withdrawal rate of 3%, (that should last you and your wife at least 30 years). So to cover your re...
by michaelsieg
Thu May 28, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selected photos of 3-week bicycle ride around the Italian Lakes
Replies: 35
Views: 2851

Re: Selected photos of 3-week bicycle ride around the Italian Lakes

Loved the pictures, you must be in great shape riding all these mountain roads!
by michaelsieg
Thu May 28, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What am I doing wrong ?
Replies: 39
Views: 4267

Re: What am I doing wrong ?

We are both burned out at our jobs and need a break and then some low stress part time work. I think that burn out is a huge problem for many, and doing something about it like taking a break and take time to regroup in your situation sounds like a good plan and you certainly have some financial fr...
by michaelsieg
Thu May 28, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What am I doing wrong ?
Replies: 39
Views: 4267

Re: What am I doing wrong ?

I am not a retirement expert by any stretch, but if I understand your question right, you plan to live off your savings (currently 850k) for 11 years, drawing 55k/year, and then take SS and make up the difference (about 9.6k) with the rest of your portfolio during the remaining retirement. Without a...
by michaelsieg
Fri May 15, 2015 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"
Replies: 86
Views: 8988

Re: Best Asset Allocation if you've "won the game"

That diagram that backpacker showed also implies (to me) that long-term bonds really are not good for "safety" in a retirement portfolio, the drawdowns in inflationary periods can be much more than I would have expected...
by michaelsieg
Fri May 15, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: sierra papa xray uniform [SPXU - ProShares Ultra-Short 3x S&P500]
Replies: 14
Views: 1248

Re: sierra papa xray uniform [SPXU - ProShares Ultra-Short 3x S&P500]

Thanks John, I know that there are portfolio managers who use hedges for their clients but I have never gone through the math and rationale of doing something like this. How would you allocate the amount or percentage that you hedge? If you use a 3x inverse ETF, would you then have 75% of your capit...
by michaelsieg
Fri May 15, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: sierra papa xray uniform [SPXU - ProShares Ultra-Short 3x S&P500]
Replies: 14
Views: 1248

Re: sierra papa xray uniform [SPXU - ProShares Ultra-Short 3x S&P500]

Looks like you caught almost the highest price of the week to buy....
by michaelsieg
Sun Apr 26, 2015 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 130
Views: 12609

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

The pure value index is just a slice of the bigger index.

Thanks backpacker - that makes sense - thanks for taking the time to explain it.
by michaelsieg
Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 130
Views: 12609

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

Front running.

Thanks Backpacker,
I can see front-running as a mechanism in an active index that ETFs or mutual funds try to mirror, but wasn't this index just newly created/published? So it seems unlikely that this would explain the negative alpha...
Will look into DES next week.
by michaelsieg
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 130
Views: 12609

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

Anyone knows or has a good guess why there is so much negative alpha in the Russell 2000 pure SV?
by michaelsieg
Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account
Replies: 74
Views: 8087

Re: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account

I also agree that this is all more about meaning than finances or spending. To the op. This is just a thought, I might be completely off and please ignore this, if I am. I think in the end, relationships and family are really important. May be it would be worth trying to pass some of your financial ...
by michaelsieg
Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford this house?
Replies: 15
Views: 2156

Re: Can I Afford this house?

Don't forget lifestyle creep - it is possible that a few years from now, you or your wife will look at your current dream house in a competitive metropolitan market as a smallish starter home...especially when you compare it to the homes some of your partners probably have... I would wait with buyin...
by michaelsieg
Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Obtaining Swiss visa in the US
Replies: 16
Views: 1425

Re: Obtaining Swiss visa in the US

Assuming you live in the US, but you (or your parents?) have an Indian passport, you might require a visa. I would give the Swiss Embassy in Washington DC a call and explain your situation, they are usually very helpful. Here is the address and phone number: Swiss Embassy, 2900 Cathedral Ave NW, Was...
by michaelsieg
Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Life: How Much & Term Length Guidance
Replies: 16
Views: 1790

Re: Term Life: How Much & Term Length Guidance

I am a bit curious about the laddering concept where some have taken out multiple policies lasting different lengths in time. We did that too, I took a 10 year, a 15 year and a 20 year policy. I projected our savings rate and felt that in the future, when savings have grown, the "shortfall&quo...
by michaelsieg
Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 130
Views: 12609

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

RNJ - I completely agree with what you are saying - I probably misunderstood you. It is a length learning process and it has taken me a while - but I now feel what you call ownership - I have reasons for the AA decisions I made. I agree one should not copy someone else's portfolio unless all the fac...
by michaelsieg
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 130
Views: 12609

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

it is my opinion that no one should be looking to them for advice. It is one thing to witness an exchange of ideas and to learn from that exchange, and quite another to read that someone likes a fund and go out and adapt that fund or strategy as one's own. That's a recipe for disaster. I also parti...
by michaelsieg
Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mirroring Ben Graham (quantitative value)
Replies: 7
Views: 1396

Re: Mirroring Ben Graham (quantitative value)

It seems arbitrary to sell after 50% gain or 2 years. It seems it would make more sense to develop a simple 'index' of stocks with higher than average expected return, then simply hold that index. If a stock exits the index because its price has risen too much, you sell automatically when that even...
by michaelsieg
Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mirroring Ben Graham (quantitative value)
Replies: 7
Views: 1396

Re: Mirroring Ben Graham (quantitative value)

Thanks for posting Robert, I liked the interview - he has such a sound framework about how he looks at investing. I want to read the intelligent investor soon. Interesting how he separates investors from speculators. At bottom it is a technique by which true investors can exploit the recurrent exces...
by michaelsieg
Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Foreign Currency Hedge for Vacation
Replies: 14
Views: 1486

Re: Foreign Currency Hedge for Vacation

I will go there with the family this summer and it will be more expensive than planned. If you want today's exchange rate (i.e. you worry, that the CHF will increase in value), just buy the Swiss Franks now (or part of what you plan on spending). I think many are betting on the CHF to get stronger. ...

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