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Re: Real Estate and the Allocation

Great input. Thanks, everyone!
by mbs
Sun Jun 30, 2013 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate and the Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 727

Real Estate and the Allocation

Any feelings about putting real estate holdings into the portfolio/allocation calculations? In addition to my home, I own a couple of properties from which I derive income. Should any or all of it be included in the same allocation category as REITs?
by mbs
Sat Jun 29, 2013 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate and the Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 727

Re: Short vs Long term bond

It's recommended to use short-term bonds instead of long term bonds because the risk is not rewarded. According to whom? David Swensen (a fairly unimpeachable source) has been recommending that investors hold long-term treasury bonds since at least 2005 when his book Unconventional Success was rele...
by mbs
Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short vs Long term bond
Replies: 16
Views: 1111

I ended up using MOVE SHARES OUT for the original shares and MOVE SHARES IN for the Admiral shares, so as not to affect the original shares in other accounts. When moving shares in, I needed to set the price to reflect the cost of my original buy in (plus reinvested dividends), however there was no ...
by mbs
Thu Dec 09, 2010 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quicken question: How to convert to admiral shares?
Replies: 21
Views: 7206

Thanks, everyone. Glad to know I've been doing it correctly. Strange about FIDO though.
by mbs
Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating Cost
Replies: 6
Views: 786

Calculating Cost

How does one calculate the cost of an investment when distributions are reinvested? Quicken adds the value of distributions and factors in the price at which they were reinvested to the amount of the original purchase. If the original purchase were 100 shares at $10 for a $1000 investment, and a $40...
by mbs
Mon Nov 29, 2010 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating Cost
Replies: 6
Views: 786

I think if you have multiple accounts within Quicken that hold the original fund shares, then making a corporate acquisition or a stock split will affect all of those holdings. Your Aunt Tilly's shares - which you happily track for her - may not qualify for Admiral status, but by "fooling"...
by mbs
Mon Nov 29, 2010 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quicken question: How to convert to admiral shares?
Replies: 21
Views: 7206

MWCA wrote:I dont understand why TIPS funds are doing so well this year? Anyone have an idea?


My question is the same. And I wonder what the right value play is. Why, for instance would anyone buy into the TIPS ETF at $111? Not for the dividend. What's the upside bet?
by mbs
Thu Oct 07, 2010 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: tips yields
Replies: 19
Views: 2772

Awfully low yield for a ten year note with no inflation on the horizon.
by mbs
Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year TIPS reopening 9/2
Replies: 20
Views: 3116

...and the yield to maturity keeps on dropping as we get closer to the 9/2 auction date -- down to .908 this morning.

With deflation staring us in the face, the price of inflation protected securities continues to rise. What's the reasoning? Anybody?
by mbs
Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year TIPS reopening 9/2
Replies: 20
Views: 3116

You're right, Bradley. I was looking a after hours trading, which reports +/- since the close. Nevermind.....
by mbs
Fri Dec 04, 2009 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Following Gold
Replies: 6
Views: 899

Following Gold

How is it that the price of gold drops by more than 4% (-$49) today while the ETF GLD closes up .09% (+$.10)?
by mbs
Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Following Gold
Replies: 6
Views: 899

Thanks, everyone, for the good input.
by mbs
Fri Oct 23, 2009 11:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Reopening
Replies: 5
Views: 1932

TIPS Reopening

The reopening of the latest 5-yr TIPS note takes place next week, and I wonder how others think the analytics look. Is a 1.423- spread to treasuries good by historical measure? And, if bought at auction, would the price tend to be lower than the $102.031 quoted here (from Fidelity)? There are higher...
by mbs
Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Reopening
Replies: 5
Views: 1932

Thanks Al. Several years ago on Morningstar's Vanguard Diehards Forum, Swensen was asked about durations. He recommended trying to "match the market characteristics" using the Lehman Index. The link is below. Interestingly, the recommended ratio has not moved much since the post was first ...
by mbs
Fri May 08, 2009 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spartan treasury funds
Replies: 3
Views: 943

Spartan treasury funds

Following Swensen, I'm in the process of moving about half of the bond portion of my allocation into US Treasurys, splitting them between long and short term to match the duration of the Lehman index. To do this, I was planning on buying TLT and SHY, the ETFs that index long and short term bonds. Be...
by mbs
Fri May 08, 2009 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spartan treasury funds
Replies: 3
Views: 943

It would be interesting to know how these ETFs correlate with other indexes. Say, SDY with a small value fund. Do they interact differently than with the broad market? Dividend stocks tend to be "mature" companies, which also tend to be large value stocks. So cap-weighted dividend indexes...
by mbs
Mon Feb 23, 2009 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend ETFs - Dividend Cuts and Portfolio Changes
Replies: 26
Views: 4816

I agree with Al. FFNOX is simple, aggressive and clearly indexed. Adding Spartan Treasury funds & TIPS is a great way to adjust the AA to something a little safer than an 85/15 split.
by mbs
Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Freedom Fund v.s. Four-in-One Index/Bond Fund Mix
Replies: 11
Views: 2991

:!: Quick degeneration here away from any investment discussion...seriously off topic and more than a little offensive. :!: Speaking to the OP's question about forms of investment in universities other than through contribution: Often corporations will underwrite research performed at a university i...
by mbs
Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYU Students Revolt
Replies: 47
Views: 6390

Note that while property taxes average out nationally to 1.38%, Californians paid roughly half of that at .68%...equal to Delaware and higher only than Hawaii and Alabama. The other most populous states -- NY & TX -- pay well in excess of the national average. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/b...
by mbs
Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With no budget, California to cut 20,000 state jobs
Replies: 69
Views: 9941

With our out-of-wack taxing and spending perhaps this is what CA needs to get back on course. Maybe the old system needs to be blown up to allow a new system to replace what has failed. Nobody needs the wheels of government grinding to a halt. Real people with real lives who depend on government se...
by mbs
Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With no budget, California to cut 20,000 state jobs
Replies: 69
Views: 9941

It would be interesting to know how these ETFs correlate with other indexes. Say, SDY with a small value fund. Do they interact differently than with the broad market?
by mbs
Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend ETFs - Dividend Cuts and Portfolio Changes
Replies: 26
Views: 4816

Thanks for catching that, Kenster. The Dividend Achievers Select Index is a subset of Dividend Achievers that adds a market cap component. Haven't found an explanation of the exact methodology beyond that.

Corrections made to the table.
by mbs
Mon Feb 02, 2009 4:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend ETFs - Dividend Cuts and Portfolio Changes
Replies: 26
Views: 4816

The chart below lists seven ETFs with that subscribe to various dividend indexes. Four of the seven are not very well distributed (noted with an "N"), having compositions that have been dominated by financials, although that might change now that the bank stocks are dropping their dividend...
by mbs
Sun Feb 01, 2009 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend ETFs - Dividend Cuts and Portfolio Changes
Replies: 26
Views: 4816

Actutally, for most dividend-focused ETf's reconstitute their holdings once a year, not immediately.


If this is true, might it not argue in favor of holding TSM or S&P500 index funds or ETFs rather than angling for the additional dividend promised with Dividend Achievers indexes and the like?
by mbs
Fri Jan 30, 2009 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend ETFs - Dividend Cuts and Portfolio Changes
Replies: 26
Views: 4816

In L.A. there are two great NY pizza places with huge pies and thin crust:

Mulberry St Pizza with locations in Bev Hls and Encino

Red Balls Pizza on Topanga Cyn in Woodland Hills
by mbs
Thu Jan 29, 2009 2:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your favorite Pizza Place?
Replies: 47
Views: 8759

CPI

New CPI and Index Ratios are out this morning available for download here --> http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/tipscpi/2009/CPI_20090116.pdf With CPI down about 1%, we should see downward pressure on TIPS prices in February, but the market may think otherwise. Wouldn't mind another s...
by mbs
Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CPI
Replies: 0
Views: 441

Higher yield is better than higher prices for the long term holder

http://www.efficientfrontier.c....ration.htm


Richard, thanks for the link to the Bernstein article. The most intuitive explanation of duration I've seen.
by mbs
Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looks like VFSTX has turned the corner
Replies: 11
Views: 3337

So what I'm getting from the interview as it pertains to individuals is that we should stick to the plan...not veer off on to some other methodology in the downturn.
by mbs
Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen on Fox Business Today
Replies: 2
Views: 972

I'm kind of surprised to see these prices rise with such gusto. Nobody's flipped the off switch for deflation (see today's Beige Book report). The December retail news is not promising, and the CPI will keep the inflation factor on TIPS falling through the end of the month, if not longer. How do you...
by mbs
Wed Dec 03, 2008 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YATS (yet another TIPS thread)
Replies: 26
Views: 4246

FWIW, Swenson recommends 30% of one's allocation be directed to fixed income with 15% going to TIPs. The other 15% is allocated to a mix of short-term Treasuries combined to match the duration of the Lehman U.S. Treasury index.
by mbs
Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs versus a bond ladder
Replies: 10
Views: 1857

It depends which TIPs. TIPs trading in the 7-9 year range (2015 and 2016 maturities) are currently returning higher YTMs than their corresponding treasuries. These maturities in particular are relatively free from deflationary risk because they are trading under par (100) after current inflation has...
by mbs
Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs versus a bond ladder
Replies: 10
Views: 1857

Monthly MA does allow for a smoother line and less frenetic activity....also fewer hours behind the computer. I've been keeping tabs on the 20-month MA, a method I read about years ago (can't remember where).
by mbs
Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1191
Views: 322677

Spreads were taken directly from Fidelity Analytics pages this morning. The chart below puts it perspective...they grey line on the bottom represents the treasury yield curve. I wonder what the consensus is about the importance of spread vs YTM, particularly if one assumes inflation will resume with...
by mbs
Thu Nov 20, 2008 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at TIPs Spreads
Replies: 2
Views: 949

Looking at TIPs Spreads

The table below shows this morning's spreads between TIPs that have maturities of greater than 4 years and current YTMs above 3%, and their respective Treasuries. The data points come from Fido. The column on the right is Spread/YTM. MAT SPD YTM S/Y Jul-13 1.412% 3.265% 0.43 Jan-14 1.635% 3.590% 0.4...
by mbs
Thu Nov 20, 2008 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at TIPs Spreads
Replies: 2
Views: 949

Yeah....1% is a pretty healthy drop. Still the TIP etf was up most of the day, and finished down just $.02. Go figure. Unless energy costs spike, I don't see how we avoid more drops in the CPI, at least through Jan. Retail sales figure to be just miserable, and I don't think anyone is asking Santa f...
by mbs
Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very high yields on 1-2 year TIPS
Replies: 24
Views: 5090

Given the market's current reactivity, the announced 2.8% drop in the CPI should give us a few days worth of yield spikes on TIPs, no?
by mbs
Tue Nov 18, 2008 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very high yields on 1-2 year TIPS
Replies: 24
Views: 5090

Lot of exposure to financials in some of those...SDY is over 38% according to Yahoo. The highest-yielding, PEY, is over 76% financials. Good point MSI. Of these six, only VIG and PFM appear to be at all distributed. An ETF you might wish to look at is MGV from VG. Low expense ratio, Ken, but less t...
by mbs
Mon Nov 17, 2008 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Stein & Hi Dividend ETFs
Replies: 41
Views: 6788

Ben Stein & Hi Dividend ETFs

In Stein's book on fixed income investing he advocates for a portfolio that includes 20% allocated to high dividend yield or dividend growth stocks -- either individual stocks or indexes. Six ETFs based on six different indexes offer a wide range of criteria and returns. Not all of these have histor...
by mbs
Mon Nov 17, 2008 3:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Stein & Hi Dividend ETFs
Replies: 41
Views: 6788

Thanks, TFB. The back of the envelope approach works for me.

Also, I was able to replicate the 3.633% using the Excel Yield function by plugging in a rate of 2.2% (coupon * inflation rate).
by mbs
Sun Nov 16, 2008 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bought my first individual TIPS yesterday
Replies: 58
Views: 10069

Please help me with the YTM on TC's bond (with apologies in advance if I'm missing the obvious). Fidelity shows: Maturity 1/15/2016 Coupon 2% Inflation Factor 1.10302 Asked Price $99.03024 Asked YTM 3.633% Does the YTM assume today's inflation factor through maturity? If so, 100 * 1.10302 * 2% = 2.2...
by mbs
Sun Nov 16, 2008 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bought my first individual TIPS yesterday
Replies: 58
Views: 10069

Yes, those crystal balls can be cloudy, particularly when the light shining from them makes you feel like a deer in the headlights. Bottom line, I think the market's volatility over the coming months will allow for lots of chances to acquire TIPs at prices that are historically good. And there's som...
by mbs
Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Return to "Normal" for TIPS?
Replies: 29
Views: 4904

Mel,

Don't you think we're in for some sustained downward price pressure on the TIPs? The TIP ETF has been bouncing around $94 for the last few days, but with Uncle Sam getting ready to flood the mkt with new debt, I'm not convinced it won't go lower. Any thoughts?

/mbs
by mbs
Thu Nov 06, 2008 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Return to "Normal" for TIPS?
Replies: 29
Views: 4904

TIPs look good right now, but my own view is that once you invest emergency money, it ceases to be emergency money.
by mbs
Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS and inflation fears
Replies: 2
Views: 943

Brak, The value of TIPs are determined by the market and by the inflation factor, as measured by the CPI. The November 2008 Reference CPI Numbers and Daily Index Ratios Table available at Treasury Direct... http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/tipscpi/tipscpi.htm ...show declining inflat...
by mbs
Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS..What's it all about?
Replies: 1
Views: 938

Actually, the TIPs are in a taxable account. I was hoping to be able to account for changes to the principal by somehow plugging in the inflation factor, but the app doesn't seem to be set up for another variable. Nor (I think) does Quicken have the ability to download a market price for bonds the w...
by mbs
Sun Nov 02, 2008 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quicken and Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 1393

Quicken and Bonds

Greetings.

I've just bought some Jan 2016 TIPS bonds and can't figure out how to track them in Quicken. It seems there are more variables at play with TIPS than this application is set up to handle. Anyone have any experience with this issue?

Thanks in advance.

Mark
by mbs
Sat Nov 01, 2008 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quicken and Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 1393

BONDS VS INDEXES

Great posts, Lauren. Thank you!

Do you have a feeling about accumulating the actual treasuries vs buying indexed ETFs (like SHY & TLT)?
by mbs
Thu Oct 30, 2008 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 3728

The lower the inflation factor, the less risk from deflation. And if you can buy bonds at or below 100, there's really no risk at all.
by mbs
Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need tips for buying TIPS in secondary market
Replies: 8
Views: 2271

The prices quoted are before the inflation factor. Multiply the inflation factor by the price asked to determine your cost for the bond. This morning, for instance, the .875s of 4/2010 are going for $107.52 on Fidelity, and the 4.25s of 1/2010 are priced at $127.78. Should the inflation factor reced...
by mbs
Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS on secondary market
Replies: 2
Views: 1478
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