Search found 1186 matches

by matjen
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ‘Alternative’ Mutual Funds Providing Limited Protection
Replies: 2
Views: 426

WSJ - ‘Alternative’ Mutual Funds Providing Limited Protection

There is a nice article in the WSJ that reinforces some basic Boglehead strategy. It also has some good quotes from our own Rick Ferri. However, as one of the self-appointed AQR Style Premia Alternative (QSPIX) cheerleaders/defenders, I must point out that 10K invested in it would be worth $10,266.6...
by matjen
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Ben Carlson is one of my favorite financial bloggers. I believe he is also a forum member actually. He had a nice post up today about volatility, correlations and corrections. You can find it here: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/when-correlations-go-to-one/ It included this chart regarding what he ...
by matjen
Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I do not believe you could find 150 textbooks that define or give values for the value, carry, momentum and defensive premiums, but in any case these premiums are much less robust and I think any honest range estimates for them would include zero. Nice point. Also, if you look at that graph buried ...
by matjen
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap copy of Lange's Retire Secure 3rd Edition
Replies: 42
Views: 4093

Re: Cheap copy of Lange's Retire Secure 3rd Edition

Thank you for the tip EmergDoc. Just ordered it. I was waiting for this third edition ever since reading your review.
by matjen
Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

10%! Darn it grap0013 I thought I was the QSPIX king with 7.5%! I'll have to up my game! :mrgreen: I upped my position a bit a month or so ago. I was at 4.x% and wanted to get to an even 5% which is where I am now. Will hang out here most likely but 10% is possible down the road. I think that could...
by matjen
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^+1 Though I will add that AQR having difficulty during the tech bubble and perhaps being close to closing shop is not a likely scenario anymore. Too lazy to do the research but AQR was brand new in the late 90s. Probably 10-50 times larger now. Grap, I am going to have to buy the Asnessheads.com do...
by matjen
Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I wouldn't mind you guys touting this fund as an interesting idea (but with a healthy amount of skepticism)... But just like you hate my cynicism and negativity (based on past experience with hot new funds), I dislike the posts that are really gung-ho over this fund, and who defend it vigorously as...
by matjen
Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

CAGR Sharpe Ratio 60% VT/40% BND 4.7% 0.85 50% VT/40% BND/10% QSPIX 5.0% 1.07 Monthly Correlations 11/01/2013 - 07/31/2015 Ticker VT BND QSPIX VT - -0.21 -0.10 BND -0.21 - 0.06 QSPIX -0.10 0.06 - And boom goes the dynamite! All you naysayers have to eat your hats until this 60:40 mix is better off ...
by matjen
Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some HiLites of the Retirement Research Consortium Annual Meeting
Replies: 44
Views: 4876

Re: Some HiLites of the Retirement Research Consortium Annual Meeting

Thank you for starting and fleshing out the topics in this thread BobK. I look forward to reading it all in more detail. :beer
by matjen
Fri Aug 14, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

To date, QSPIX has delivered below equity market returns and the difference has all gone to the asset manager, so you have paid 100% of the outperformance to AQR, unless you put this into something other than a equity or risk category in your portfolio (if you do this IMO you are stretching the uti...
by matjen
Thu Aug 13, 2015 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Yawn...

QSPIX up .49% today. Total Bond (BND) down .21%. Total World Stock (VT) down .15%

Must be eating you fellas alive...a little part of you dying as QSPIX performs.
by matjen
Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I agree with your arguments in theory but I have observed there is a significant difference between theory and practice. A perfect example being the vast, vast majority of stock picking equity funds over longer periods of time. After the fact tossing out the Sequoia name doesn't change that. 85% ch...
by matjen
Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Priorities
Replies: 75
Views: 7167

Re: Priorities

Given that: 1. You "won the game" by your own criteria, and 2. You don't like your job, Why would you keep working? The "work" is very, very easy these days. I have made the trade-off between high stress and high pay for low, low stress and OK pay. Let's just say that if I was p...
by matjen
Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Priorities
Replies: 75
Views: 7167

Re: Priorities

Thank you so much for sharing protagonist. Stories like this really help me as I contemplate early retirement. As I sit now, I don't enjoy my job which has rapidly decreased in income (though still OK compared to many) and actually stress. However, the lack of being really free is weighing on me. Al...
by matjen
Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone not own a Smartphone
Replies: 76
Views: 3875

Re: Anyone not own a Smartphone

Folks, it is a simple fact that smartphones are taking over the world and are crucial to the development of much of the world that is able to skip massive expenditures in soon to be outdated infrastructure. Way more phones than home computers and more important. http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/20...
by matjen
Mon Aug 10, 2015 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For the bogleheads either retired or close to retiring
Replies: 29
Views: 3867

Re: For the bogleheads either retired or close to retiring

TomatoTomahto wrote:
RadAudit wrote:I'm sure when I get back to the grad school reunion (the 45th) next year, I'll be the poorest guy in the room.

Not in my book.


Nor mine. Congratulations RadAudit. :beer
by matjen
Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nothing like a play-by-play update. Trailing 3 month returns for my portfolio: Total: -3.42% QSPIX: +6.31% VFITX (intermed term treasuries): +0.41% Those are real returns of a fund that I actually held throughout the entire time frame. Not backtested. Phew, I was worried about the Grap Omen but up ...
by matjen
Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Congrats to Laura Dogu
Replies: 61
Views: 5146

Re: Congrats to Laura Dogu

WOW! Very, very impressive. Congratulations! :sharebeer
by matjen
Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 4
Views: 1407

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Interesting web site. I have only spent a few minutes on it and there is much to digest. I especially like that it has the Larry Fat Tails Portfolio as an option however I don't think it is really an accurate version since it relies on a chunk of TIPS. Here is a nice comment he wrote about comparing...
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Campbell Harvey on Gold Prices & Luck vs. Skill In Financial Markets
Replies: 3
Views: 372

Re: Campbell Harvey on Gold Prices & Luck vs. Skill In Financial Markets

On the factors, both Fama/French and the folks behind the Q model (four factors) have chimed in on this issue of which matters, and they basically come to the same conclusion that there are just four or five that matter in the 350 factor zoo and the rest are basically redundant (they are manifestat...
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Reasons to Rejoice Higher Interest Rates
Replies: 54
Views: 7097

Re: 3 Reasons to Rejoice Higher Interest Rates

Nice article Rick. Thanks for posting. I'm all for a gradual an moderate increase in rates! :moneybag
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 7976

Re: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds

I have around 60% of my non-retirement investments in VWIUX (2.8% tax equivalent yield), so this caught my attention: Though I do own a low-cost muni bond fund, it’s a very small part of my fixed-income portfolio. Muni bonds represent about 10 percent of the U.S. investment-grade bond market and I ...
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)
Replies: 128
Views: 13325

Re: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)

I disagree with many of the replies above. I think 13 million is very doable by 50*

*I am assuming 4% real returns and an 11 million dollar inheritance in my calculations though.... :P
by matjen
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 7976

Re: Allan Roth Says to Avoid Muni Bonds

Just a reminder that not all muni bond funds are the same. I'm not sure whether this would change Mr. Roth's rule of thumb but since I knew I would have a large slug of muni funds I decided to go with about the safest and most conservative one I could find and that is Baird Intermediate Muni Bond In...
by matjen
Sat Aug 01, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Zerohedge
Replies: 13
Views: 1495

Re: Zerohedge

I read it from time to time for entertainment value. That is the only value it has. Many of the articles are interesting and snarky but DO NOT use Zerohedge to make any market moves. Just remember, it started around 2009 if I recall correctly. It's tagline should read: " Zerohedge, bearish sinc...
by matjen
Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 329
Views: 28182

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

Is there some way to verify all my programs are compatible with Win 10 without going through the install process? The Get Windows 10 icon that was added to most people's system tray will tell you. There should be a Check your PC option (which has probably already been automatically run).... The onl...
by matjen
Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 329
Views: 28182

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

I have a Surface Pro 3. Got a notification that my update was ready. Hit the install button and 25 minutes later everything was running smoothly after one additional reboot to get it to recognize wireless after I took it out of its docking station. Quite like Windows 10 and had no problems with Wind...
by matjen
Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:09 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: bogleheadism == Vanguard?
Replies: 66
Views: 4887

Re: bogleheadism == Vanguard?

Everyone here would acknowledge that you can put together sufficient index portfolios with other fund companies, but Vanguard is still the gold standard. I don't know why anyone associated with this site would have to pretend that was not the case in order to appear "neutral." If telling ...
by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:31 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: bogleheadism == Vanguard?
Replies: 66
Views: 4887

Re: bogleheadism == Vanguard?

I don't think Vanguard gets that much mention. I don't read every post, but the overwhelming number of posts have little to do with Vanguard. Heck, I'd say that Warren Buffet, Dave Ramsey and TIAA-CREF get more more mention in this forum than Vanguard does, but maybe I just notice those references ...
by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in a few days
Replies: 32
Views: 3819

Re: Retiring in a few days

Congratulations! And please keep us posted. As someone who is very seriously considering early retirement (I am 49), I am very interested in the experience of others in similar situations. :sharebeer
by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Maleficent 7" by Bob Seawright/Above the Market Blog
Replies: 4
Views: 750

Re: "The Maleficent 7" by Bob Seawright/Above the Market Blog

Great article and definitely a "keeper." Thank you for posting.
by matjen
Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter
Replies: 4
Views: 1218

Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

King of all blowhard buzzkills Jeremy Grantham* is out with another quarterly report on how we are all doomed. He kindly has lists now: 1. Pressure on gross domestic product growth in the U.S. and the balance of the developed world: count on 1.5% U.S. growth, not the old 3% 2. The age of plentiful, ...
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation for New Investor
Replies: 10
Views: 626

Re: Book Recommendation for New Investor

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Why buy it when you can get it for FREE? http://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf


Well, since you asked: 1) support of the forum, 2) support of Dr. Bernstein.

But free is good too! :beer
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation for New Investor
Replies: 10
Views: 626

Re: Book Recommendation for New Investor

William Bernstein's "If You Can" was specifically written for people in your daughter's position/age bracket. All of Bernstein's books are excellent. "If You Can is a short, inexpensive e-booklet aimed at getting twenty-somethings with their first 401(k) started on the path to retirem...
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision
Replies: 30
Views: 3044

Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision

A wonderful article that should be read once a year by all investors in my opinion. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/20/good-enough.aspx?source=ifesitlnk0000001&lidx=4 This is a great reminder that some fields work with amazing precision. They are governed by pure math and physics, ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11847

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Certainly true in the general sense Nisi but what happens on this board is that people just ignore the message that Robert T. is suggesting and, instead, focusing on what they want to see or criticize. These types of studies really are just dealing in probabilities and not on an exact return over t...
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does my estate planning attorney need to know net worth?
Replies: 16
Views: 2796

Re: Does my estate planning attorney need to know net worth?

Are you also reticent to share information about your health and personal habits with your doctors?
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11847

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

The big question is: let's say stocks are overvalued, what then? So what? The false syllogism is: a) Stocks are overvalued. b) Therefore, I must do something. Certainly true in the general sense Nisi but what happens on this board is that people just ignore the message that Robert T. is suggesting ...
by matjen
Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11847

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

"Our forecast for core U.S. equities is a 0.8% annualized real return over the next decade." Their 95% confidence interval for US Equities = -3.9% to +5.4%, for EM Equities = -1.7% to +13.4% - so wide range of possible outcomes. In addition to diversifying, have modest expectations, focus...
by matjen
Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: first half look at hedge fund returns
Replies: 11
Views: 899

Re: first half look at hedge fund returns

I think this lengthy blog post by Cliff Asness is about the best thing one can read for a balanced perspective on Hedge Funds and their potential role in a portfolio. His tepid defense...

https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/ ... id-defense
by matjen
Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Summary of Recent Factor Research - FF 5 Factor, etc.
Replies: 2
Views: 500

Summary of Recent Factor Research - FF 5 Factor, etc.

An interesting summary of recent factor research from Wes Gray. We test the recent Fama-French five-factor model and Hou-Xue-Zhang four-factor model using test assets from Fama-MacBeth regressions, which are bets on particular characteristics or covariances that are neutral with respect to others. M...
by matjen
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 15
Views: 1784

Re: Lazy Portfolios

Looks like some difference in the 5-10 yrs. But at 15 plus years they are all close. Does this mean keep it simple with the Lazy Portfolio of the 3 fund? Also, could I say the same with the Vanguard Target Dated fund? Simple and same returns. I don't think they have been around long enough for the ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2584

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

I may have read a bit much into it now that I have read it again. I just think that it is kind of a weak article by Bobby Shiller. ;-) He did sneak the word "imagined" in at the beginning of the third paragraph. In any case, no I don't agree with the overall arc of the article but I do agr...
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 15
Views: 1784

Re: Lazy Portfolios

There is a collection of popular ones tracked at MarketWatch. http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio Bogleheads, The Three Fund Portfolio on MarketWatch (i.e. Second Graders) is leading the race! Best. Bogleheads, As was pointed it in another thread, the Second Graders Portfolio does indeed have ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 15
Views: 1784

Re: Lazy Portfolios

There is a collection of popular ones tracked at MarketWatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2584

Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

Congratulations to forum member Larry Swedroe for kinda being straw manned by Bob Shiller (or is it reductio ad absurdum). AQR mentioned as well. :annoyed "In their new book The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Larry E. Swedroe and Andrew L. Berkin describe an investment environment populated by inc...
by matjen
Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58739

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I finally took some time to put my money where my mouth was, pick up a trivial promotional offer for moving a Roth to Fidelity, and dump about 6% of net worth into the fund. Didn't want to use the entire Roth space for it (no rebalancing opportunities), and I got started late on that. I figured the...
by matjen
Sun Jul 12, 2015 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3800

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

I understand the concept - but I wonder if Larry would have the same Larry allocation for a 30 year old tenured professor as a 65 year old pre-retiree. I guess he might - that's the whole purpose of LP. But I will admit, I do not have the guts to go 30-40% equities with a 30 year runway to retireme...
by matjen
Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Whole Story: Factors + Asset Classes - Jason Hsu
Replies: 2
Views: 468

The Whole Story: Factors + Asset Classes - Jason Hsu

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/whole-story-factors-asset-classes/page/0/1 A very interesting summary article of Research Affiliates’ Advisory Panel conference. I have selected some interesting edited sections below: Cam Harvey of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Man ...

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