Search found 1193 matches

by matjen
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 59
Views: 2751

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

However, if outperformance were as simple as writing some rules on a napkin and investing accordingly, we’d expect to see a robust history of outperformance across the board. In reality, we’ve seen the opposite. What a howler this sentence is. I would expect it on an investing forum but not written...
by matjen
Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 59
Views: 2751

AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

The latest from Cliff Asness and excellent as always IMO. This topic/argument always comes up in the factor threads and QSPIX threads. https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/how-can-a-strategy-still-work-if-everyone-knows-about-it A few select quotes. Some assert that once a strategy is “discovered”...
by matjen
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 9
Views: 1253

Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel

I nice overview of market conditions from Prof. Siegel's perspective with some selected quotes below: Speed of Correction Surprising I was surprised by the speed at which the markets corrected. This speaks volumes about forces that have underpinned this sell-off: the Federal Reserve (Fed) threatenin...
by matjen
Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?
Replies: 85
Views: 9059

Re: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?

Cliff Asness Who? Never heard of him. Which economics Nobel did he win or where is he on the Forbes billionaire's list? John Bogle does not have an economics Nobel and he is not on the Forbes billionaire list either. Does that mean we shouldn't listen to him? I've heard of Bogle. I know what his qu...
by matjen
Sun Aug 30, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to learn about investing...by watching Netflix"
Replies: 2
Views: 695

Re: "How to learn about investing...by watching Netflix"

pierremonfrere wrote: They lost me at Wolf of Wall street...


This NSFW clip from Wolf on Wall Street is the most important lesson about investing one can learn! "F*ck the clients."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTHlXb0PXh4
by matjen
Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ‘Alternative’ Mutual Funds Providing Limited Protection
Replies: 3
Views: 997

Re: WSJ - ‘Alternative’ Mutual Funds Providing Limited Protection

I noted that "To be fair... I see that the Vanguard Market Neutral Fund, and the much-discussed AQR Style Premia Fund, did also sail straight through," and it's worth showing a picture of that, too. Yes. The people who managed them succeeded in being market neutral and the funds did what ...
by matjen
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ‘Alternative’ Mutual Funds Providing Limited Protection
Replies: 3
Views: 997

WSJ - ‘Alternative’ Mutual Funds Providing Limited Protection

There is a nice article in the WSJ that reinforces some basic Boglehead strategy. It also has some good quotes from our own Rick Ferri. However, as one of the self-appointed AQR Style Premia Alternative (QSPIX) cheerleaders/defenders, I must point out that 10K invested in it would be worth $10,266.6...
by matjen
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Ben Carlson is one of my favorite financial bloggers. I believe he is also a forum member actually. He had a nice post up today about volatility, correlations and corrections. You can find it here: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/when-correlations-go-to-one/ It included this chart regarding what he ...
by matjen
Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I do not believe you could find 150 textbooks that define or give values for the value, carry, momentum and defensive premiums, but in any case these premiums are much less robust and I think any honest range estimates for them would include zero. Nice point. Also, if you look at that graph buried ...
by matjen
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap copy of Lange's Retire Secure 3rd Edition
Replies: 55
Views: 5627

Re: Cheap copy of Lange's Retire Secure 3rd Edition

Thank you for the tip EmergDoc. Just ordered it. I was waiting for this third edition ever since reading your review.
by matjen
Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

10%! Darn it grap0013 I thought I was the QSPIX king with 7.5%! I'll have to up my game! :mrgreen: I upped my position a bit a month or so ago. I was at 4.x% and wanted to get to an even 5% which is where I am now. Will hang out here most likely but 10% is possible down the road. I think that could...
by matjen
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^+1 Though I will add that AQR having difficulty during the tech bubble and perhaps being close to closing shop is not a likely scenario anymore. Too lazy to do the research but AQR was brand new in the late 90s. Probably 10-50 times larger now. Grap, I am going to have to buy the Asnessheads.com do...
by matjen
Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I wouldn't mind you guys touting this fund as an interesting idea (but with a healthy amount of skepticism)... But just like you hate my cynicism and negativity (based on past experience with hot new funds), I dislike the posts that are really gung-ho over this fund, and who defend it vigorously as...
by matjen
Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

CAGR Sharpe Ratio 60% VT/40% BND 4.7% 0.85 50% VT/40% BND/10% QSPIX 5.0% 1.07 Monthly Correlations 11/01/2013 - 07/31/2015 Ticker VT BND QSPIX VT - -0.21 -0.10 BND -0.21 - 0.06 QSPIX -0.10 0.06 - And boom goes the dynamite! All you naysayers have to eat your hats until this 60:40 mix is better off ...
by matjen
Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some HiLites of the Retirement Research Consortium Annual Meeting
Replies: 44
Views: 5242

Re: Some HiLites of the Retirement Research Consortium Annual Meeting

Thank you for starting and fleshing out the topics in this thread BobK. I look forward to reading it all in more detail. :beer
by matjen
Fri Aug 14, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

To date, QSPIX has delivered below equity market returns and the difference has all gone to the asset manager, so you have paid 100% of the outperformance to AQR, unless you put this into something other than a equity or risk category in your portfolio (if you do this IMO you are stretching the uti...
by matjen
Thu Aug 13, 2015 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Yawn...

QSPIX up .49% today. Total Bond (BND) down .21%. Total World Stock (VT) down .15%

Must be eating you fellas alive...a little part of you dying as QSPIX performs.
by matjen
Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I agree with your arguments in theory but I have observed there is a significant difference between theory and practice. A perfect example being the vast, vast majority of stock picking equity funds over longer periods of time. After the fact tossing out the Sequoia name doesn't change that. 85% ch...
by matjen
Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Priorities
Replies: 79
Views: 7911

Re: Priorities

Given that: 1. You "won the game" by your own criteria, and 2. You don't like your job, Why would you keep working? The "work" is very, very easy these days. I have made the trade-off between high stress and high pay for low, low stress and OK pay. Let's just say that if I was p...
by matjen
Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Priorities
Replies: 79
Views: 7911

Re: Priorities

Thank you so much for sharing protagonist. Stories like this really help me as I contemplate early retirement. As I sit now, I don't enjoy my job which has rapidly decreased in income (though still OK compared to many) and actually stress. However, the lack of being really free is weighing on me. Al...
by matjen
Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone not own a Smartphone
Replies: 76
Views: 4103

Re: Anyone not own a Smartphone

Folks, it is a simple fact that smartphones are taking over the world and are crucial to the development of much of the world that is able to skip massive expenditures in soon to be outdated infrastructure. Way more phones than home computers and more important. http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/20...
by matjen
Mon Aug 10, 2015 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For the bogleheads either retired or close to retiring
Replies: 29
Views: 4004

Re: For the bogleheads either retired or close to retiring

TomatoTomahto wrote:
RadAudit wrote:I'm sure when I get back to the grad school reunion (the 45th) next year, I'll be the poorest guy in the room.

Not in my book.


Nor mine. Congratulations RadAudit. :beer
by matjen
Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 626
Views: 70397

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nothing like a play-by-play update. Trailing 3 month returns for my portfolio: Total: -3.42% QSPIX: +6.31% VFITX (intermed term treasuries): +0.41% Those are real returns of a fund that I actually held throughout the entire time frame. Not backtested. Phew, I was worried about the Grap Omen but up ...
by matjen
Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Congrats to Laura Dogu
Replies: 61
Views: 5829

Re: Congrats to Laura Dogu

WOW! Very, very impressive. Congratulations! :sharebeer
by matjen
Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 4
Views: 1411

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Interesting web site. I have only spent a few minutes on it and there is much to digest. I especially like that it has the Larry Fat Tails Portfolio as an option however I don't think it is really an accurate version since it relies on a chunk of TIPS. Here is a nice comment he wrote about comparing...
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Campbell Harvey on Gold Prices & Luck vs. Skill In Financial Markets
Replies: 3
Views: 379

Re: Campbell Harvey on Gold Prices & Luck vs. Skill In Financial Markets

On the factors, both Fama/French and the folks behind the Q model (four factors) have chimed in on this issue of which matters, and they basically come to the same conclusion that there are just four or five that matter in the 350 factor zoo and the rest are basically redundant (they are manifestat...
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Reasons to Rejoice Higher Interest Rates
Replies: 54
Views: 7260

Re: 3 Reasons to Rejoice Higher Interest Rates

Nice article Rick. Thanks for posting. I'm all for a gradual an moderate increase in rates! :moneybag
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 8492

Re: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds

I have around 60% of my non-retirement investments in VWIUX (2.8% tax equivalent yield), so this caught my attention: Though I do own a low-cost muni bond fund, it’s a very small part of my fixed-income portfolio. Muni bonds represent about 10 percent of the U.S. investment-grade bond market and I ...
by matjen
Tue Aug 04, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)
Replies: 128
Views: 13656

Re: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)

I disagree with many of the replies above. I think 13 million is very doable by 50*

*I am assuming 4% real returns and an 11 million dollar inheritance in my calculations though.... :P
by matjen
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth Says Not to Load Up on Muni Bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 8492

Re: Allan Roth Says to Avoid Muni Bonds

Just a reminder that not all muni bond funds are the same. I'm not sure whether this would change Mr. Roth's rule of thumb but since I knew I would have a large slug of muni funds I decided to go with about the safest and most conservative one I could find and that is Baird Intermediate Muni Bond In...
by matjen
Sat Aug 01, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Zerohedge
Replies: 13
Views: 1535

Re: Zerohedge

I read it from time to time for entertainment value. That is the only value it has. Many of the articles are interesting and snarky but DO NOT use Zerohedge to make any market moves. Just remember, it started around 2009 if I recall correctly. It's tagline should read: " Zerohedge, bearish sinc...
by matjen
Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 329
Views: 29482

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

Is there some way to verify all my programs are compatible with Win 10 without going through the install process? The Get Windows 10 icon that was added to most people's system tray will tell you. There should be a Check your PC option (which has probably already been automatically run).... The onl...
by matjen
Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 329
Views: 29482

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

I have a Surface Pro 3. Got a notification that my update was ready. Hit the install button and 25 minutes later everything was running smoothly after one additional reboot to get it to recognize wireless after I took it out of its docking station. Quite like Windows 10 and had no problems with Wind...
by matjen
Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:09 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: bogleheadism == Vanguard?
Replies: 66
Views: 5620

Re: bogleheadism == Vanguard?

Everyone here would acknowledge that you can put together sufficient index portfolios with other fund companies, but Vanguard is still the gold standard. I don't know why anyone associated with this site would have to pretend that was not the case in order to appear "neutral." If telling ...
by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 10:31 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: bogleheadism == Vanguard?
Replies: 66
Views: 5620

Re: bogleheadism == Vanguard?

I don't think Vanguard gets that much mention. I don't read every post, but the overwhelming number of posts have little to do with Vanguard. Heck, I'd say that Warren Buffet, Dave Ramsey and TIAA-CREF get more more mention in this forum than Vanguard does, but maybe I just notice those references ...
by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in a few days
Replies: 35
Views: 4504

Re: Retiring in a few days

Congratulations! And please keep us posted. As someone who is very seriously considering early retirement (I am 49), I am very interested in the experience of others in similar situations. :sharebeer
by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Maleficent 7" by Bob Seawright/Above the Market Blog
Replies: 4
Views: 754

Re: "The Maleficent 7" by Bob Seawright/Above the Market Blog

Great article and definitely a "keeper." Thank you for posting.
by matjen
Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter
Replies: 4
Views: 1227

Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

King of all blowhard buzzkills Jeremy Grantham* is out with another quarterly report on how we are all doomed. He kindly has lists now: 1. Pressure on gross domestic product growth in the U.S. and the balance of the developed world: count on 1.5% U.S. growth, not the old 3% 2. The age of plentiful, ...
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation for New Investor
Replies: 10
Views: 644

Re: Book Recommendation for New Investor

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Why buy it when you can get it for FREE? http://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf


Well, since you asked: 1) support of the forum, 2) support of Dr. Bernstein.

But free is good too! :beer
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation for New Investor
Replies: 10
Views: 644

Re: Book Recommendation for New Investor

William Bernstein's "If You Can" was specifically written for people in your daughter's position/age bracket. All of Bernstein's books are excellent. "If You Can is a short, inexpensive e-booklet aimed at getting twenty-somethings with their first 401(k) started on the path to retirem...
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision
Replies: 30
Views: 3123

Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision

A wonderful article that should be read once a year by all investors in my opinion. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/20/good-enough.aspx?source=ifesitlnk0000001&lidx=4 This is a great reminder that some fields work with amazing precision. They are governed by pure math and physics, ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11929

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Certainly true in the general sense Nisi but what happens on this board is that people just ignore the message that Robert T. is suggesting and, instead, focusing on what they want to see or criticize. These types of studies really are just dealing in probabilities and not on an exact return over t...
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does my estate planning attorney need to know net worth?
Replies: 16
Views: 2816

Re: Does my estate planning attorney need to know net worth?

Are you also reticent to share information about your health and personal habits with your doctors?
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11929

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

The big question is: let's say stocks are overvalued, what then? So what? The false syllogism is: a) Stocks are overvalued. b) Therefore, I must do something. Certainly true in the general sense Nisi but what happens on this board is that people just ignore the message that Robert T. is suggesting ...
by matjen
Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11929

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

"Our forecast for core U.S. equities is a 0.8% annualized real return over the next decade." Their 95% confidence interval for US Equities = -3.9% to +5.4%, for EM Equities = -1.7% to +13.4% - so wide range of possible outcomes. In addition to diversifying, have modest expectations, focus...
by matjen
Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: first half look at hedge fund returns
Replies: 11
Views: 910

Re: first half look at hedge fund returns

I think this lengthy blog post by Cliff Asness is about the best thing one can read for a balanced perspective on Hedge Funds and their potential role in a portfolio. His tepid defense...

https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/ ... id-defense
by matjen
Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Summary of Recent Factor Research - FF 5 Factor, etc.
Replies: 2
Views: 507

Summary of Recent Factor Research - FF 5 Factor, etc.

An interesting summary of recent factor research from Wes Gray. We test the recent Fama-French five-factor model and Hou-Xue-Zhang four-factor model using test assets from Fama-MacBeth regressions, which are bets on particular characteristics or covariances that are neutral with respect to others. M...
by matjen
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 15
Views: 1835

Re: Lazy Portfolios

Looks like some difference in the 5-10 yrs. But at 15 plus years they are all close. Does this mean keep it simple with the Lazy Portfolio of the 3 fund? Also, could I say the same with the Vanguard Target Dated fund? Simple and same returns. I don't think they have been around long enough for the ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2599

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

I may have read a bit much into it now that I have read it again. I just think that it is kind of a weak article by Bobby Shiller. ;-) He did sneak the word "imagined" in at the beginning of the third paragraph. In any case, no I don't agree with the overall arc of the article but I do agr...

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