Search found 1157 matches

by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in a few days
Replies: 12
Views: 1330

Re: Retiring in a few days

Congratulations! And please keep us posted. As someone who is very seriously considering early retirement (I am 49), I am very interested in the experience of others in similar situations. :sharebeer
by matjen
Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Maleficent 7" by Bob Seawright/Above the Market Blog
Replies: 4
Views: 693

Re: "The Maleficent 7" by Bob Seawright/Above the Market Blog

Great article and definitely a "keeper." Thank you for posting.
by matjen
Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter
Replies: 4
Views: 1101

Jeremy Grantham: The 10 Topics That Really Matter

King of all blowhard buzzkills Jeremy Grantham* is out with another quarterly report on how we are all doomed. He kindly has lists now: 1. Pressure on gross domestic product growth in the U.S. and the balance of the developed world: count on 1.5% U.S. growth, not the old 3% 2. The age of plentiful, ...
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation for New Investor
Replies: 10
Views: 594

Re: Book Recommendation for New Investor

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Why buy it when you can get it for FREE? http://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf


Well, since you asked: 1) support of the forum, 2) support of Dr. Bernstein.

But free is good too! :beer
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation for New Investor
Replies: 10
Views: 594

Re: Book Recommendation for New Investor

William Bernstein's "If You Can" was specifically written for people in your daughter's position/age bracket. All of Bernstein's books are excellent. "If You Can is a short, inexpensive e-booklet aimed at getting twenty-somethings with their first 401(k) started on the path to retirem...
by matjen
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision
Replies: 30
Views: 2972

Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision

A wonderful article that should be read once a year by all investors in my opinion. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/20/good-enough.aspx?source=ifesitlnk0000001&lidx=4 This is a great reminder that some fields work with amazing precision. They are governed by pure math and physics, ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11605

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Certainly true in the general sense Nisi but what happens on this board is that people just ignore the message that Robert T. is suggesting and, instead, focusing on what they want to see or criticize. These types of studies really are just dealing in probabilities and not on an exact return over t...
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does my estate planning attorney need to know net worth?
Replies: 16
Views: 2767

Re: Does my estate planning attorney need to know net worth?

Are you also reticent to share information about your health and personal habits with your doctors?
by matjen
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11605

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

The big question is: let's say stocks are overvalued, what then? So what? The false syllogism is: a) Stocks are overvalued. b) Therefore, I must do something. Certainly true in the general sense Nisi but what happens on this board is that people just ignore the message that Robert T. is suggesting ...
by matjen
Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11605

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

"Our forecast for core U.S. equities is a 0.8% annualized real return over the next decade." Their 95% confidence interval for US Equities = -3.9% to +5.4%, for EM Equities = -1.7% to +13.4% - so wide range of possible outcomes. In addition to diversifying, have modest expectations, focus...
by matjen
Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: first half look at hedge fund returns
Replies: 11
Views: 884

Re: first half look at hedge fund returns

I think this lengthy blog post by Cliff Asness is about the best thing one can read for a balanced perspective on Hedge Funds and their potential role in a portfolio. His tepid defense...

https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/ ... id-defense
by matjen
Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Summary of Recent Factor Research - FF 5 Factor, etc.
Replies: 2
Views: 473

Summary of Recent Factor Research - FF 5 Factor, etc.

An interesting summary of recent factor research from Wes Gray. We test the recent Fama-French five-factor model and Hou-Xue-Zhang four-factor model using test assets from Fama-MacBeth regressions, which are bets on particular characteristics or covariances that are neutral with respect to others. M...
by matjen
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 15
Views: 1744

Re: Lazy Portfolios

Looks like some difference in the 5-10 yrs. But at 15 plus years they are all close. Does this mean keep it simple with the Lazy Portfolio of the 3 fund? Also, could I say the same with the Vanguard Target Dated fund? Simple and same returns. I don't think they have been around long enough for the ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2510

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

I may have read a bit much into it now that I have read it again. I just think that it is kind of a weak article by Bobby Shiller. ;-) He did sneak the word "imagined" in at the beginning of the third paragraph. In any case, no I don't agree with the overall arc of the article but I do agr...
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 15
Views: 1744

Re: Lazy Portfolios

There is a collection of popular ones tracked at MarketWatch. http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio Bogleheads, The Three Fund Portfolio on MarketWatch (i.e. Second Graders) is leading the race! Best. Bogleheads, As was pointed it in another thread, the Second Graders Portfolio does indeed have ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lazy Portfolios
Replies: 15
Views: 1744

Re: Lazy Portfolios

There is a collection of popular ones tracked at MarketWatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio
by matjen
Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2510

Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

Congratulations to forum member Larry Swedroe for kinda being straw manned by Bob Shiller (or is it reductio ad absurdum). AQR mentioned as well. :annoyed "In their new book The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Larry E. Swedroe and Andrew L. Berkin describe an investment environment populated by inc...
by matjen
Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42373

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I finally took some time to put my money where my mouth was, pick up a trivial promotional offer for moving a Roth to Fidelity, and dump about 6% of net worth into the fund. Didn't want to use the entire Roth space for it (no rebalancing opportunities), and I got started late on that. I figured the...
by matjen
Sun Jul 12, 2015 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3690

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

I understand the concept - but I wonder if Larry would have the same Larry allocation for a 30 year old tenured professor as a 65 year old pre-retiree. I guess he might - that's the whole purpose of LP. But I will admit, I do not have the guts to go 30-40% equities with a 30 year runway to retireme...
by matjen
Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Whole Story: Factors + Asset Classes - Jason Hsu
Replies: 2
Views: 460

The Whole Story: Factors + Asset Classes - Jason Hsu

http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/whole-story-factors-asset-classes/page/0/1 A very interesting summary article of Research Affiliates’ Advisory Panel conference. I have selected some interesting edited sections below: Cam Harvey of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Man ...
by matjen
Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Matrix Book 2015 - interesting country returns
Replies: 10
Views: 1290

Re: DFA Matrix Book 2015 - interesting country returns

Thank you Robert T.

Ken French is looking especially studly. ;-)
by matjen
Fri Jul 10, 2015 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3690

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

Contrary to what is asserted often on this board, DFA access does not have to be expensive at all .... Sorry, maybe I missed something. What's the inexpensive way to access DFA? Many 401(K) plans have DFA funds in them. The Utah 529 plan has many DFA options. There are low cost AUM advisors out the...
by matjen
Fri Jul 10, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3690

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

To more directly answer OP's question I found my notes on the Larry Portfolio. This is from Larry himself I believe. I don't personally own this portfolio but I have incorporated parts of it. I still have a very large equity bias whereas a Larry Portfolio is mostly in fixed income...usually. Only ne...
by matjen
Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3690

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

I use DFA .... 50 USA/35 ex-USA/15 EM It is hard to have only SCV in EM so I try to tilt to value as much as possible. I use Vanguard for the Bonds I have lowered by stock allocation from what what it used to be ..... Contrary to what is asserted often on this board, DFA access does not have to be ...
by matjen
Fri Jul 10, 2015 12:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla S
Replies: 731
Views: 104077

Re: Tesla S

Agree with 4nursebee. It is the car of the future, once you drive for months in the Tesla Model S and recharge in garage and never ever go to another gas station you never want to go back to an ICE vehicle. Now with over 32K miles on Model S and looking forward to delivery of Model X before year en...
by matjen
Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla S
Replies: 731
Views: 104077

Re: Tesla S

matjen, thanks for yet another review from some entity that had no idea how to handle the car of the future. 4nursebee, I sincerely hope you enjoy travelling from mall to parking lot to garage throughout America. I fear your retirement my be cut short from eating too much cheese fries and blooming ...
by matjen
Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla S
Replies: 731
Views: 104077

Re: Tesla S

Car & Driver just came out with a real world review of a painfully slow road trip when one isn't driving up and down California. The Model S was equipped with the new nav system that is supposed to minimize range anxiety by finding the chargers for you. Short version amazingly slow (both on the ...
by matjen
Wed Jul 08, 2015 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42373

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Performed poorly today: Down 1.62% vs. 1.67% for S&P index. If you are going to compare QSPIX to an equity benchmark even as sort of a laugh, I think VT (Total World) is the only "fair" benchmark. Otherwise you are picking and choosing a subclass of equities. VT was down 2.11% today.
by matjen
Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Half of China Major Stocks Cease Trading. Impact Globally?
Replies: 36
Views: 3584

Re: Half of China Major Stocks Cease Trading. Impact Globally?

I hope PBS runs 10 interviews with Thomas Friedman so he can provide his deep insights and explain this to everyone... :P
by matjen
Tue Jul 07, 2015 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)
Replies: 43
Views: 4463

Re: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)

I think this later article by Matt Levine at Bloomberg (One of my favorite financial columnists) is much better and much fairer. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-07/can-you-really-game-index-funds- "What should you make of this? A couple of things. First: The value of market-making...
by matjen
Mon Jul 06, 2015 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My Case For Early Retirement 50's/60's
Replies: 10
Views: 1199

Re: My Case For Early Retirement 50's/60's

Thank you for the reminder. Very inspirational! I'm 49 and on the fence. Decision may be made by employer soon. If not, perhaps I wait until 50.

Reading this makes me want to pull the plug tomorrow. :beer
by matjen
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3334

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

You may find this poll and thread helpful. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=152643 I think a large majority of Bogleheads tilt to SCV and/or REITS. FWIW, I believe Allan Roth, Rick Ferri, and William Bernstein all tilt to SCV. That doesn't mean they would recommend it to eve...
by matjen
Sat Jul 04, 2015 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8740

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Investing is not a science. The word "science" does not appear in The Bogleheads Investment Philosophy . The word "science" does not appear Bogle's "The Twelve Pillars of Wisdom." Crap, I forgot that those books came down from the mountain... 209south was too narrow. T...
by matjen
Sat Jul 04, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8740

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

I am telling you, if you listen to AQR, you should sell now.... (b) they spread fear and panic, ... How do you feel about Jack Bogle because he is certainly more pessimistic than Cliff Asness over then next decade. Just as he was in the 90s. No one is saying there is 100% certainly of low returns b...
by matjen
Thu Jul 02, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?
Replies: 15
Views: 1633

Re: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?

Not sure I understand the concern over muni risk, with the obvious exceptions of individual holdings in such places as Puerto Rico or Detroit. However, if one holds a highly diversified muni fund, the risk has been historically tiny. I00 percent of my bond holdings in my taxable account are in muni...
by matjen
Wed Jul 01, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11606

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

In May of last year I sold all my TIPS and all my REITS and put the proceeds into AQR Style Premia Alternative QSPIX . Once we are near retirement (another 8-10 years minimum according to my DW) then I will revisit TIPS.
by matjen
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?
Replies: 15
Views: 1633

Re: How Much Muni Is Too Much Muni?

Question: If bonds are for safety, is there a percentage of Muni bonds that one should not exceed of the overall bond allocation? I am in a similar situation and I am not aware of any rule of thumb on percentages. However, because i have so much Muni and because my 401(k) best option is a riskier i...
by matjen
Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Education of a Value Investor"
Replies: 35
Views: 5507

Re: "The Education of a Value Investor"

Buffet has his Geico and Spier has his father and his father's friends. There is no doubt he is a very smart man and has a real introspective bent which is wonderful. It just struck me that (late 1997) he was able to start his fund after only about 18 months of professional experience as an investm...
by matjen
Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8740

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

I think this is a pretty good article on the general topic of future estimated returns and CAPE. http://i59.tinypic.com/bimsli.png http://www.robeco.com/en/professionals/insights/markets/graph-of-the-week.jsp "Then we have the 'but' – of which there are several. The first is the black line. It ...
by matjen
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Annoying problem with Lollipop (new Android 5.1 OS)
Replies: 52
Views: 5678

Re: Annoying problem with Lollipop (new Android 5.1 OS)

Thanks for the update. I restarted my phone this morning and the problem is still there. I cleared the cache yesterday but didn't cure it. Since I'm no expert, what are the steps to doing a factory reset and backing up? Will I then have to download and install 5.1 again? I'm afraid the problem migh...
by matjen
Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Annoying problem with Lollipop (new Android 5.1 OS)
Replies: 52
Views: 5678

Re: Annoying problem with Lollipop (new Android 5.1 OS)

Browser, My 2013 Moto X started up just fine this morning. I left it off all night. I will say the boot process does seem a bit slower than with Kit Kat but it did start up with no application optimization stage like when I first did the upgrade. My one glitch (in general with the upgrade) is that t...
by matjen
Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42373

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It is also entertaining. What would I do with my time if I didn't have this thread? :happy Looks like this thread has run its course. What happened to stay the course? Back to the shadows I go until some more QSPIX stuff comes out, or a new factor is invented , or a good yoga thread comes along.......
by matjen
Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1888

Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing

Mostly tongue in cheek and very, very enjoyable! http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2015/06/23/in-defense-of-active-investing/ "Some who attack active investors and their self-rewarding business practices seem uncomfortable with practitioners’ ample compensation. Unrelenting attackers — app...
by matjen
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Annoying problem with Lollipop (new Android 5.1 OS)
Replies: 52
Views: 5678

Re: Annoying problem with Lollipop (new Android 5.1 OS)

Browser I have the same set up. A first generation Moto X (Developer Edition) and a few day old Lollipop install. I don't turn the phone off at night and that is obviously the easy solution for you. Regardless, I will try and remember to turn it off and will report back if I have the same issue as y...
by matjen
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8740

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

His view that you can only withdraw 2.2% real annually seems predicated on the assumption that your goal is to live off real portfolio returns and not deplete the principal. Who does that? We generally plan to deplete principal as well as earnings at a rate that won't destroy the principal complete...
by matjen
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8740

AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

For your consideration...I drink the Kool-Aid and this is one of the reasons I have a slice of QSPIX. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/SubmissionsArticle.aspx?submissionid=209621.xml "He maintains that both bonds and stocks are expensive—bonds in the 97th percentile and stocks in the 92nd...
by matjen
Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 278
Views: 27852

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Ages 49 and 43. 75% equity 25% fixed income
by matjen
Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30 years old / Missed the bull run
Replies: 50
Views: 8886

Re: 30 years old / Missed the bull run

Opportunity cost is a very real thing, and it speaks to the advice we often hear for people to start saving as early as possible. But honestly, I started saving what I could from my first jobs and was buying stocks during a cheap market. And I netted, say, 50% that someone like you didn't net. But ...
by matjen
Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]
Replies: 36
Views: 2868

Re: Happy Birthday to Mel [Lindauer]

Happy Birthday Mel. Keep on keeping on. :sharebeer

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