Search found 5525 matches

by market timer
Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your networth progression
Replies: 241
Views: 53867

Re: Share your networth progression

FItoBFree wrote:Jan 2014 - ($110,332.26); new salary ~$73k (Aug 2013-Mar 2014)
Jan 2015 - ($48,166.05); new salary ~208k (Mar 2014-present)

How did you get this salary bump?
by market timer
Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?
Replies: 28
Views: 3200

Re: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?

I resigned from a job with a ~$200K salary in my mid-30s. That was a tough decision. I had saved $700K, which could support a modest lifestyle on a 4% withdrawal rate. I chose to go without health insurance and pay out of pocket. My health care expenses that year declined from $9,000 in premiums the...
by market timer
Sun Aug 23, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 947
Views: 168976

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Rabbit, Run , by John Updike. Amazon blurb: Rabbit, Run is the book that established John Updike as one of the major American novelists of his—or any other—generation. Its hero is Harry “Rabbit” Angstrom, a onetime high-school basketball star who on an impulse deserts his wife and son. He is twenty...
by market timer
Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 519
Views: 74713

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 4% ytd. Getting clobbered in international equities and commodities. Was up much more a couple months ago. Current alloctation: 25% EM equities 25% Developed int'l equities 15% US equities 15% Long term Treasuries 25% Health care REITs 20% Mortgage REITs 10% Gold 20% Oil -55% Cash Is the negativ...
by market timer
Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 519
Views: 74713

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 4% ytd. Getting clobbered in international equities and commodities. Was up much more a couple months ago.

Current alloctation:
25% EM equities
25% Developed int'l equities
15% US equities
15% Long term Treasuries
25% Health care REITs
20% Mortgage REITs
10% Gold
20% Oil
-55% Cash
by market timer
Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline
Replies: 35
Views: 3686

Re: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline

If this was an IB analyst job in NY, I would basically flat out reject this offer as inferior, to say, making 50K a year in some midwestern city doing something - anything - else. This job in NY has to pay 3x more than equivalent job in the midwest to be worthwhile. Don't underestimate the value of...
by market timer
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Relief
Replies: 8
Views: 909

Re: Student Loan Relief

OP didn't mention a public service job.
by market timer
Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Relief
Replies: 8
Views: 909

Re: Student Loan Relief

To qualify for forgiveness, you have to make 240-300 monthly payments while enrolled in the Income Based Repayment plan. That plan started sometime around 2008, so nobody is close to qualifying. All federal loans are eligible for forgiveness.
by market timer
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 2862

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

Which is why Harry Browne came up with the idea of the Permanent Portfolio. He was originally a pretty big goldbug, but recognizing how tough it was to hold gold over the long term, he began recommending that one reduce gold holdings to 25% of one's portfolio and hold the other 75% in stocks and bo...
by market timer
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2029

Re: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans

I'd prepay the student loans. Then, when your wife leaves her job, you won't have to make the student loan payments for a while. Prepaying the mortgage does nothing to help your cash flow in the short run. Selling the house seems way too expensive for not much in the way of cost savings. You have e...
by market timer
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2029

Re: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans

I'd prepay the student loans. Then, when your wife leaves her job, you won't have to make the student loan payments for a while. Prepaying the mortgage does nothing to help your cash flow in the short run. Selling the house seems way too expensive for not much in the way of cost savings. You have en...
by market timer
Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice
Replies: 70
Views: 6974

Re: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice

Most jobs seem to fall broadly into two categories: "modeling" (PDEs, dynamical systems, etc), and "statistics" (machine learning, actuarial/financial math, "data analysis", etc). If you are looking for jobs that have "quant" in the title, that's probably rig...
by market timer
Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice
Replies: 70
Views: 6974

Re: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice

Glad to hear you're enjoying the math coursework.

For us to give better direction, I think it would be helpful for you to give examples of the type of work you'd like to do. Spend some time on LinkedIn or other jobs sites and see which jobs you'd enjoy. That would help identify the best path forward.
by market timer
Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 2862

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

A few comments: 1. Extraction =/= Production (we need a supernova for that) 2. Real interest rates matter. Gold is less attractive when long term government bonds offer 3+% real yields (higher opportunity cost), which they did over most of the time period the "Golden Constant" was measured...
by market timer
Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

a) "Is gold a true intrinsic measure of value and a stable store of value?" or b) "Is gold a speculative investment that sometimes makes lucrative gains for gold owners?" If the question is (b), then the answer is "yes," and 1934 was a time when hypothetical gold owner...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

...For the past century, an ounce of gold has generally bought 15 barrels of oil +/- 5 barrels. I expect in 40 years, an ounce of gold will buy roughly 15 barrels of oil... What's your source for that? [Chart showing that during the last century an ounce of gold bought anywhere from 7 to 37 barrels...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

Sure, you could buy Dec 2020 WTI futures for $64, a premium of about 50% over spot. After five years, you could roll to 2025, and so on, up until 2055. There is considerable uncertainty around contango/storage costs. It's not clear to me that this reduces variance relative to buying and holding gol...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

I often wonder what people will be doing in 40 years to pay the income taxes that give the dollar its value, as work is increasingly automated. When I was a child, my family would drive up to my grandparents cottage on summer weekends and holidays. Among other things, my grandparents had decades-ol...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

...For the past century, an ounce of gold has generally bought 15 barrels of oil +/- 5 barrels. I expect in 40 years, an ounce of gold will buy roughly 15 barrels of oil... What's your source for that? I tried using http://www.eia.gov/beta/api/qb.cfm?sdid=PET.F000000__3.A for oil, http://www.measur...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

Is it a good thing to own something that keeps pace with the price of commodities when the price of commodities is relentlessly down and then down some more? Just own commodities if you want to keep pace with the price of commodities, yes? Yes, if you believe in liability matching. As for owning go...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

And these specious arguments about "too much debt" pushing up the price of gold? Why? What mechanism could be at work? Do people and governments pay debts in gold? You could explain the mechanism using something like the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisc...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

In any case, oil was just one example of all the commodities one consumes. Gold is not a bad proxy for this entire basket over the long run, likely better than T-bills. Isn't the high volatility of gold a problem for trying to use it to match future liabilities? For the past century, an ounce of go...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

Suppose you want to hedge your future energy costs (as measured by the price of WTI) in the year 2055. Which of these two investments, if held for 40 years, has the lowest variance in number of barrels of oil you can purchase in 2055: (1) an ounce of gold, (2) $1116 in short term T-bills rolled ove...
by market timer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the 12 commandments of gold bugs
Replies: 62
Views: 4081

Re: the 12 commandments of gold bugs

Currently, a barrel of WTI (oil) costs $42. An ounce of gold costs $1116. Said another way, an ounce of gold buys 26.6 barrels of WTI. Suppose you want to hedge your future energy costs (as measured by the price of WTI) in the year 2055. Which of these two investments, if held for 40 years, has the ...
by market timer
Sat Aug 15, 2015 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse ETFs
Replies: 44
Views: 2509

Re: Inverse ETFs

It is not suitable for long-term holding. It is only suitable for trading "as frequently as daily." I think we're mostly in agreement about the mechanics of this fund, the point you've brought up is essentially how to balance the monitoring/transaction costs against tracking error. Just t...
by market timer
Sat Aug 15, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse ETFs
Replies: 44
Views: 2509

Re: Inverse ETFs

In practice daily reconstitution means you have to pay attention daily, not that the instrument is never suitable for any longer period. +1 As for whether one should use inverse ETFs, my suggestion would be simply to reduce equity exposure by selling shares first. However, tax implications of share...
by market timer
Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your First Job
Replies: 113
Views: 6176

Re: Your First Job

First paid work involved bailing hay on a nearby farm at age 12. Starting working for my parents in a warehouse around age 15. Did that full-time during high school summers. Also worked part-time jobs in fast food after school in high school. The trend now seems to be for high school students, at le...
by market timer
Sat Aug 08, 2015 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 y/o, Planning for early financial independence and semi-retirement.
Replies: 6
Views: 1005

Re: 28 y/o, Planning for early financial independence and semi-retirement.

I think others have addressed your financial questions. As for a career, I recommend looking into computational biology, as your background will be most useful there.
by market timer
Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rank order fixed income options
Replies: 37
Views: 3792

Re: rank order fixed income options

Sorry, but what is "utilities" in this context? Is this a new asset class? Are there funds for it? I've not heard about it before... Investopedia defines the utilities sector as follows: "A category of stocks for utilities such as gas and power. The utilities sector contains companie...
by market timer
Tue Aug 04, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rank order fixed income options
Replies: 37
Views: 3792

Re: rank order fixed income options

I think equity REITs are very similar to long term TIPS. I'm sorry but, really? Equity REITs, along with utilities, tend to have very stable dividend streams that rise with inflation. The volatility of these assets is more a function of the discount rate than earnings, as the former is more variabl...
by market timer
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rank order fixed income options
Replies: 37
Views: 3792

Re: rank order fixed income options

letsgobobby wrote:Any further ideas?

Consider utilities for your taxable account. They share some characteristics with long term bonds, but with better tax treatment and likely higher returns.
by market timer
Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US citizen/expat living in Belgium - investment advice
Replies: 15
Views: 1176

Re: US citizen/expat living in Belgium - investment advice

If your plan is to buy stocks, it doesn't matter whether you exchange euros into dollars before buying stocks or simply buy stocks with euros. You end up owning the same investments. Just pick the brokerage that is cheapest and easiest. For most US citizens, that means using a US brokerage.
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates on I-Bonds
Replies: 20
Views: 2431

Re: Zero Interest Rates on I-Bonds

I agree with #Cruncher. Those I bonds have good rates relative to the market, we've just had a temporary downturn in CPI due to the oil slump.
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best use of early retirement (low income) years?
Replies: 15
Views: 1556

Re: Best use of early retirement (low income) years?

Yeah, savings bonds might bump your marginal tax rate on something like a Roth conversion from 15% to 25% in 20 years. To determine whether this is a problem, you should consider the alternative. I guess munis? There you sacrifice some yield for the next 20 years (vs. savings bonds), but you save on...
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: real estate in NYC
Replies: 38
Views: 3086

Re: real estate in NYC

Not only are housing prices very high in NYC, you also have to pay the city income tax if you live there, which works out to about $20K/year for you. I know people who moved to NJ specifically to avoid that tax. As others have suggested, I would look for work elsewhere, particularly since you are a ...
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13535

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

To make you feel better, here is our daily food budget for two adults:

Breakfast: $5 (coffee + croissants at home)
Lunch: $15 (restaurant)
Afternoon coffees: $5 (Starbucks)
Dinner: $40 (restaurant, includes 1 alcoholic drink)

Total: $65/day or about $2K/month
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 4:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: expecting zero taxes this year (FEIE); how to avoid tax on 403(b) contributions
Replies: 3
Views: 377

Re: expecting zero taxes this year (FEIE); how to avoid tax on 403(b) contributions

I would go with option 2: Rollover to an IRA then convert to a Roth. I do not believe you can apply the FEIE to conversions; however, you have some tax-free space in the form of a standard deduction and personal exemptions. You should try to convert your rollover IRA to your Roth at least up to the ...
by market timer
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3072

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

I generally have a large allocation to long term bonds. My time horizon is (hopefully) long. I'm investing to fund my own consumption in 30+ years or that of my children. The typical analysis of MPT is a one-year horizon. I guess that kind of myopia makes sense if you are a portfolio manager, since ...
by market timer
Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash EE bond to pay down the mortgage?
Replies: 7
Views: 542

Re: Cash EE bond to pay down the mortgage?

I would be inclined to consider the $11K EE bond as part of my emergency fund, and use $11K from the emergency fund (not the EE bond) to pay down the mortgage.
by market timer
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2208

Re: Help buying LEAPs

This isn't my specialty, but I wonder who would take the short side of the 30-year option trade. That would be costly for a bank to keep on its balance sheet. I think there are variable annuities with floors that might actually be similar. Why would it be costly for a bank to keep on its balance sh...
by market timer
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2208

Re: Help buying LEAPs

ideally a risk averse investor with a limited time horizon wants a stock index or stock portfolio with a floor. so say stock index with a long term put option. mathematically this is equivalent through put call parity to a zero coupon long term bond plus a long term call option. Yeah, I agree with ...
by market timer
Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unique Social Security Question
Replies: 3
Views: 757

Re: Unique Social Security Question

Why not hire the kids for $7500/year each? Then they can put the money in their Roth IRAs.
by market timer
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2208

Re: Help buying LEAPs

Has Zvi Bodie published anything where he argues why TIPS + LEAPS is superior to TIPS + equities? I read some of the stuff linked to in the earlier thread, and agree with essentially everything he has written. However, I have not seen him justify the why of this strategy. I agree with the basic liab...
by market timer
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gift taxes for non-resident aliens
Replies: 2
Views: 207

Gift taxes for non-resident aliens

My wife recently received a cash gift from a relative of roughly $300K. We file taxes as MFJ. Are there any US tax implications of this gift? The relative lives outside the US and does not file US taxes. Also, we are keeping this cash in a foreign bank account. Is the FBAR/FATCA reporting more onero...
by market timer
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a job as a software developer?
Replies: 54
Views: 5092

Re: How to get a job as a software developer?

Lots of good advice above. I strongly suggest getting a college degree if you don't have one--doesn't have to be CS. Otherwise, you'll have a much harder job search for the rest of your life. As someone mentioned above, you might want to try for a data analyst role initially. There are many jobs tha...
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career or Top MBA
Replies: 37
Views: 3744

Re: Military career or Top MBA

With a computer science undergrad degree and some nice scholarships for grad school, have you considered a career in the tech industry? The finance industry is in decline. There is an oversupply of MBAs with vague career plans.
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10837

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHM?

So you would be paying down a mortgage (building equity of maybe $12K/year assuming your house appreciates with inflation), saving about $20K/year for retirement, and putting close to $7K/year into Social Security (your employer contributing another $7K). I see no problems here.
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Bucket Portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1612

Re: Auto Bucket Portfolio

As a one-fund solution to this problem, I believe the Managed Payout Fund offered by Vanguard is what you're looking for.
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10837

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHM?

easye418 wrote:Without my wife working at all and at $85K, I would take home ~$4,800-$5,200 net a month.

I just feel like I would be running FAR too lean to be comfortable.


Looks like your take-home number assumes maxing out your 401K. If so, you are not running that lean at all.

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