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Re: Good scotch recommendations, where to buy

Lately, I've been drinking Johnnie Walker Double Black on ice. Go through a bottle every 2-3 weeks. Buying it at airport duty free.
by market timer
Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good scotch recommendations, where to buy
Replies: 44
Views: 2444

Re: NYT: Re-education of a Brash Young Stock Picker

He hung out a shingle for his money management firm and made the following promise to investors: If his investments underperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, they would pay him nothing. But if he beat it, they would pay him a fee equal to one-third of the money they had made beyond ...
by market timer
Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: Re-education of a Brash Young Stock Picker
Replies: 23
Views: 2847

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Russia 1917
by market timer
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5376

Re: The slackening...

One "preliminary" thought I have is to for divide our estate in two (two kids). From each of the two portions, match what each kid has accumulated and give the balance to charity. Don't know whether it would be a one for one match or some other method. In this fashion, we would be rewardi...
by market timer
Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The slackening...
Replies: 61
Views: 6539

Re: How to save for retirement while living abroad?

Thanks, yes I'm making under the $97,000 limit (paid in Euros, but EUR-USD conversion is under $97,000). Actually I'm married with a child and file jointly on my single income. So it's the case that I can contribute the maximum to my US-based Roth IRA while not making any US income or paying any US...
by market timer
Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to save for retirement while living abroad?
Replies: 5
Views: 447

Re: Correlation between US Stocks and Treasuries

You can download historical closing prices for SPY and TLT from Yahoo Finance and analyze in Excel.
by market timer
Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between US Stocks and Treasuries
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: Chess.com is The Bomb

Yes, I'm a fairly regular blitz player there. It's a great site.
by market timer
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chess.com is The Bomb
Replies: 10
Views: 1303

Re: skewing to take advantage of capital-loss carryforward?

I use futures and options to avoid receiving dividends. For example, an E-mini S&P future is almost identical to 500 shares of SPY, but without dividend payments. As futures are rolled quarterly, you generate realized gains (or losses) that can be used to offset (or add to) your carryforward los...
by market timer
Sat Apr 12, 2014 9:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: skewing to take advantage of capital-loss carryforward?
Replies: 8
Views: 617

Re: Bond Allocation with 6.8% Student Loans

If you're in a high tax bracket, you're likely better off with a traditional 401K than Roth 401K.
by market timer
Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Allocation with 6.8% Student Loans
Replies: 12
Views: 830

Re: Unsubsidized Fixed Rate Stafford Loans - a good deal?

For someone who has a significant chance of receiving forgiveness, either due to a career in public service or with low pay, they are a fantastic deal. If you have a career in public service or have a low paying job, then you may not have to pay back the loan? Can you explain further. A couple prog...
by market timer
Wed Apr 09, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unsubsidized Fixed Rate Stafford Loans - a good deal?
Replies: 22
Views: 893

Re: Unsubsidized Fixed Rate Stafford Loans - a good deal?

What you've described is a pretty fair deal for someone who intends to repay. Not a great deal that can be easily arbitraged, like the subsidized loans, but not bad either. For someone who has a significant chance of receiving forgiveness, either due to a career in public service or with low pay, th...
by market timer
Wed Apr 09, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unsubsidized Fixed Rate Stafford Loans - a good deal?
Replies: 22
Views: 893

Re: Why Americans are Retiring Overseas

I think people had stronger reasons to retire abroad when healthcare was unaffordable for those without a job with benefits, and who were too young to quality for Medicare. With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, there will probably be fewer new economic expatriates, and some current on...
by market timer
Wed Apr 09, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why Americans are Retiring Overseas
Replies: 109
Views: 9074

Re: Why Americans are Retiring Overseas

I live abroad, and the vast majority of my expat friends did not move abroad for financial reasons. Several are much wealthier than me, and many of us could live pretty much anywhere on the planet if we wanted to, absent visa considerations. Although you can live anywhere on the planet, you cannot ...
by market timer
Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why Americans are Retiring Overseas
Replies: 109
Views: 9074

Re: Why Americans are Retiring Overseas

Outside of certain areas (e.g., NYC, San Fran), the US is a very cheap place to retire, especially if you qualify for Obamacare subsidies or Medicare. This assumes you want a first-world standard of living--from basic things like potable water to a decent car. My current plan is to raise my family o...
by market timer
Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why Americans are Retiring Overseas
Replies: 109
Views: 9074

Re: How to account for an annuity ?

In some ways, it is more meaningful to ignore net worth and instead track passive income. I think this is particularly true after one retires.
by market timer
Mon Apr 07, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to account for an annuity ?
Replies: 47
Views: 1932

Re: I accidentally discovered a coworkers salary... now what

Rather than look at what coworkers make, who might earn high salaries for any number of reasons, I always ask myself what it would cost to replace me.
by market timer
Fri Apr 04, 2014 9:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I accidentally discovered a coworkers salary... now what?
Replies: 59
Views: 5508

Re: Interest Rates vs Inflation

Narayana Kocherlakota, Minneapolis Fed President, suggested as much in a speech (believe it was 2010). Stephen Williamson has had a few recent blog posts on this topic (http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com), as has John Cochrane (http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-sign-of-monetary-policy-par...
by market timer
Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates vs Inflation
Replies: 22
Views: 1461

Re: More House, Less Booze: How Spending Changes From Age 25

I wonder to what extent survivorship bias explains the decline in tobacco and alcohol consumption in old age.
by market timer
Wed Apr 02, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More House, Less Booze: How Spending Changes From Age 25-75
Replies: 1
Views: 926

Re: Expensive hobbies and possessions? (B/c you can...)

Good food, good scotch, travel, and hopefully a great education for my son. Most expensive, perhaps, is that I expect to forgo a great deal of income by semi-retiring in my 30s.
by market timer
Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Expensive hobbies and possessions? (B/c you can...)
Replies: 126
Views: 9241

Re: retired at 37?

If you’re willing to live off say, $30k after tax per year, and you make $100k after tax, it adds up fast. $70k per year invested at 8% return gets you to a million or so in 10 years. Then you’re pretty much set. And 30k after tax isn't such a bad life these days. The trick of course is actually ma...
by market timer
Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4934

Re: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]

While HFT is a broad category with some definite positives, the practice of front running orders and offering immaterial price improvement is something that seems a clear negative for regular customers. This is a very common practice and you see it when your order clears at some tiny fraction of a c...
by market timer
Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]
Replies: 107
Views: 6262

Re: AA Advice in NYC

The UTMA doesn't have restrictions on how it can be used, unlike a 529. As far as I know, there is no reason to keep the funds in the UTMA. Hmmm... not quite sure what to do with it then. I figured to keep it around to allow back door into Roth every year; but that doesn't make sense I think. Maybe...
by market timer
Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Advice in NYC
Replies: 9
Views: 951

Re: AA Advice in NYC

I'll let others weigh in on your asset allocation questions. For the emergency fund, I recommend a high yield savings account instead of checking. I use Capital One 360 at 0.75% interest, there may be better options. The UTMA doesn't have restrictions on how it can be used, unlike a 529. As far as I...
by market timer
Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Advice in NYC
Replies: 9
Views: 951

Re: Sustainable wage increases over the long term?

If GDP grows at 2% real pa and real wages grow at 2% pa, then share of real wages/ GDP (around 2/3rds in most developed economies I believe) stays the same. *assuming* the size of the labour force stays a constant percentage of the population (so if employment rises then real wage growth would be l...
by market timer
Wed Mar 26, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sustainable wage increases over the long term?
Replies: 20
Views: 1174

Re: Hypothetically living off investment dividends?

Yeah, this is definitely doable, and the budget isn't even that tight. They could move to a cheaper part of the country, for example, likely pocketing a sizable home price differential in the process. Plus, Social Security will help out down the road. If it were me, I'd try to find a way to avoid pa...
by market timer
Wed Mar 26, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetically living off investment dividends?
Replies: 34
Views: 3030

Re: TIPS yield stairstep increase

This is due to seasonality. Prices tend to be higher in summer than winter. You see the effect much more clearly on shorter duration TIPS.
by market timer
Wed Mar 26, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield stairstep increase
Replies: 13
Views: 1527

Re: Is it ethical to put this on your resume?

Many of the openings I see ask for degrees in accounting, finance, or a related field.

I wouldn't consider math a related field.
by market timer
Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it ethical to put this on your resume?
Replies: 27
Views: 2861

Re: I bought a rosé this week...

I bought an $80 pillow.
by market timer
Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I bought a rosé this week...
Replies: 35
Views: 3514

Re: Opinion - balance between school loans and saving

I would not pay anything more than the minimum on the loans with sub-3% interest rates. You'll likely soon have a mortgage with a higher rate than that, so if nothing else, it's better to have a larger down payment than lower student loan balance. For the 4.75% loans, there's a good case to be made ...
by market timer
Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Opinion - balance between school loans and saving
Replies: 14
Views: 716

Re: 28 year old with student loan needs help

Why not keep the money in your Roth IRA until there is an emergency?
by market timer
Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 year old with student loan needs help
Replies: 14
Views: 982

Re: Can I beat 2.75% guaranteed via mortgage paydown?

Just to add to David's post, if you can simply break-even between mortgage interest rate and bond interest rate, it's a no-brainer to pick bonds instead of mortgage prepayment. The reason is optionality: you can prepay your mortgage at any time if rates fall (and your bond values rise); if rates ris...
by market timer
Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I beat 2.75% guaranteed via mortgage paydown?
Replies: 73
Views: 4525

Re: Was frugality a mistake? The downsides of saving too mu

Yes, I find people with poor finances generally less interesting and less intelligent. If one is under the radar, he may easily be lumped into a class lower than the truth. Do you have friends who live in the ghetto side of town? I doubt it. No, odds are, your friends are in similar socioeconomic d...
by market timer
Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Was frugality a mistake? The downsides of saving too much.
Replies: 115
Views: 8814

Re: Can I beat 2.75% guaranteed via mortgage paydown?

Do I want $750,000 of my portfolio committed to generating the monthly payment for a mortgage? No. You wouldn't need $750K to meet a $300K mortgage liability. If bond rates are greater than mortgage rates, holding maturity constant, you could just buy $300K of bonds and get a risk-free profit. I do...
by market timer
Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I beat 2.75% guaranteed via mortgage paydown?
Replies: 73
Views: 4525

Re: Confession: I bought a stock. What is wrong with me?

nisiprius wrote:My daughter, when she was fresh out of college, landed a job at a Fortune 500 world famous megacorporation.

Description and price movement make it sound like GE.
by market timer
Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confession: I bought a stock. What is wrong with me?
Replies: 25
Views: 2149

Re: Can I beat 2.75% guaranteed via mortgage paydown?

Are you already maxing out your 401K and Roth? I'd also buy the max of EE bonds before paying down a 2.75% 10-year mortgage. After that, OK.
by market timer
Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I beat 2.75% guaranteed via mortgage paydown?
Replies: 73
Views: 4525

Re: Did you retire in your 30s?

I am striving and hoping to be able to do this sort of "retirement" by the time that I hit 40. I figure that with a paid-off house in a reasonable cost-of-living location and 1.25 to 1.5 million in a taxable investment account, it is plenty do-able. Similar plans here, aided by my wife's ...
by market timer
Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you retire in your 30s?
Replies: 55
Views: 5309

Re: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09

Copious amounts of good beer, later followed by even greater amounts of cheap beer.
by market timer
Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09
Replies: 104
Views: 5453

Re: Student Loans and income abroad

The calculation is based on AGI, which sounds like it will be $0 for your sister.
by market timer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loans and income abroad
Replies: 3
Views: 159

Re: Student Loans and income abroad

Have her call the servicer and sign up for income based repayment.
by market timer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loans and income abroad
Replies: 3
Views: 159

Re: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of colleg

I will guess that in that specific situation, your EFC will be $99,999. FAFSA must have changed since I last filled it out. Previously, equity in primary residence and retirement accounts were not included in EFC calculation. Edit: Appears that is still the case, actually: http://www.cune.edu/a-to-...
by market timer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of college?
Replies: 31
Views: 1525

Re: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of colleg

We started late and hope to retire by the time our son enrolls in college. That's one strategy that would work under the current system of means testing. That will work if one has only tax-advantated accounts. If the parents have a joint taxable account, then the educational institution will assume...
by market timer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of college?
Replies: 31
Views: 1525

Re: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of colleg

We started late and hope to retire by the time our son enrolls in college. That's one strategy that would work under the current system of means testing. That will work if one has only tax-advantated accounts. If the parents have a joint taxable account, then the educational institution will assume...
by market timer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of college?
Replies: 31
Views: 1525

Re: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of colleg

The answer depends on your income and assets. If you are at the border of qualifying for need-based aid, some strategies, like paying off your mortgage or taking a sabbatical year, can yield substantial financial aid windfalls. We started late and hope to retire by the time our son enrolls in colleg...
by market timer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a best way to prepare for the expense of college?
Replies: 31
Views: 1525

Re: My Company's Retirement Seminar. . . What a sham!

Covered calls should not be part of a retirement seminar IMO. They are not even allowed in tax advantaged retirement accounts. Same is true for shorting. There are inverse ETFs that are allowed but that does not make them a good idea. Maybe there is an ETF that uses a covered calls strategy, I don'...
by market timer
Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Company's Retirement Seminar. . . What a sham!
Replies: 15
Views: 2504

Re: Would you retire like this?

At the age of 34, I'd rather have more money than $350K for retirement, even if the cost of living is low currently. Inflation might be high on your tropical island, especially if it is discovered by tourists. At a minimum, I'd want a paid-off house on that island (inflation hedge) and $500K in inve...
by market timer
Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you retire like this?
Replies: 72
Views: 6730

Re: What to say to Non-Savers

I asked him if he had started saving for retirement again, and he told me that he hadn't. He then said something about how "studies have shown that it's irrational to save for retirement when you're young." What studies are these? Sounds like interesting reading material. I'm already tire...
by market timer
Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to say to Non-Savers
Replies: 71
Views: 5181

Re: Girl Scout Cookies - why not tax-deductible?

I think the arbitrage here may be to bake your own cookies for 96 cents per box and donate them at FMV of $4. Works for people in the 25% bracket or higher.
by market timer
Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girl Scout Cookies - why not tax-deductible?
Replies: 25
Views: 1808

Re: Portfolio in bad shape, want to invest additional ~$300,

How did you even get 300K in cash to begin with? Savings accrued throughout the years from work. Wish I would have been more aggressive about investing earlier, I was holding too many misconceptions about the market and my mindset was far too passive. There's nothing like a five-year bull market to...
by market timer
Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio in bad shape, want to invest additional ~$300,000
Replies: 8
Views: 1386

Re: Leaving a small amount of student debt for child to pay

They told us up front the amount of money they would be able to give us to help pay for school. For them, it was a necessity because of their income and finances, but I'm considering doing a similar thing for my kids. Same story here. This really motivated me to get scholarships. Most likely, I'll ...
by market timer
Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving a small amount of student debt for child to pay off?
Replies: 45
Views: 2649

Re: Skip IRA for 1 year to buy engagement ring

FWIW, I sold taxable funds to buy my wife's engagement ring. I did not use a savings account back then and I just saved...little did I know that I would be selling stock to buy a diamond....I think I remember which stocks I sold...I refuse to look at the prices then vs now. Apparently, diamonds hav...
by market timer
Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Skip IRA for 1 year to buy engagement ring
Replies: 152
Views: 7344
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