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Re: End of QE2 or Where did it go?

Mostly in excess reserves. I believe the consensus thinking now is that interest paid to these excess reserves will become the key policy rate once rate hikes commence next year.

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by market timer
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of QE2 or Where did it go?
Replies: 5
Views: 447

Re: Finance kids' medical educations with a HELOC?

Are there downsides to this plan that I’ve missed? Better alternatives that I haven’t considered? I think the most likely problem is that one of your children decides to pursue a career for which loan forgiveness would have been possible. The rules on loan forgiveness are still evolving and expandi...
by market timer
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finance kids' medical educations with a HELOC?
Replies: 23
Views: 1441

Re: Getting Started in a Career in Finance

This was all during a time of my life where i still believed the falsity that science/math jobs are isolating and non-social . Another falsity you should disabuse yourself of is that finance is a path to riches. Even after you jump through all the hoops set up to get a job, the probability of a pro...
by market timer
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Started in a Career in Finance
Replies: 8
Views: 1435

Re: Getting Started in a Career in Finance

You've received good advice so far. What strikes me about your post is the following: -BA in journalism -Work experience in a law firm -Took the MCAT -Now looking for work in finance You come across as having little direction. I would suggest picking a field (journalism, law, medicine, or finance) a...
by market timer
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Started in a Career in Finance
Replies: 8
Views: 1435

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Ayres and Nalebuff suggest using S&P 500 LEAPS to get 2x leverage in their book. Recently, the combination of low volatility and low interest rates has led to historically low time premia on call options. This has given rise to the early exercise complication on LEAPS that Park mentions. There ...
by market timer
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 414
Views: 36808

Re: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats

avalpert wrote:Aren't you covered by your wife's health insurance through her employer - does it not cover treatment in the US?

No, it doesn't.
by market timer
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats
Replies: 7
Views: 444

Re: Getting Student Loans w/ a Mortgage - Advice

For Federal student loans, I believe your ability to repay is not considered in making the decision to lend. As long as you get into the school, the government will give you loans up to the cost of attendance. Interesting and good to know. I'm worried that federal student loans won't fully cover th...
by market timer
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Student Loans w/ a Mortgage - Advice
Replies: 4
Views: 673

Re: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats

Thanks for the replies. Here is Covered California FAQ on avoiding gaps in coverage and info for some states on when coverage would start. This clarified my understanding about the 60-day enrollment period and effective start date. It's quite reassuring that this system is in place. PPACA really is ...
by market timer
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats
Replies: 7
Views: 444

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

In a tax advantaged account, one way to get leverage is use deep in the money (DITM) calls. I've considered a strategy of buying 2 year DITM calls, and rolling them after one year. But I came to the conclusion that the only ETF where this could work was SPY; bid ask spread on other ETFs decreased t...
by market timer
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 414
Views: 36808

Re: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth

Would you say that you are worth 210k? The taxable account has had taxes paid on the gains each year, whereas the pension will have taxes to be paid in the future. Just curious as to how most people view it. Thanks! I think it's worth putting together a simple Excel spreadsheet with assumptions on ...
by market timer
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth
Replies: 56
Views: 3710

Re: Getting Student Loans w/ a Mortgage - Advice

For Federal student loans, I believe your ability to repay is not considered in making the decision to lend. As long as you get into the school, the government will give you loans up to the cost of attendance.
by market timer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Student Loans w/ a Mortgage - Advice
Replies: 4
Views: 673

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

I suppose you have no family nearby, or you're a free bird. No family nearby aside from my wife and son and the in-laws. BTW, the going rate for a plot in the ground is $10K (for a 6 foot by 10 foot hole). Is that a waste of money to live when retired? :) It's not how I would choose to spend my las...
by market timer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12391

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Wow, so many people are such spenders. I think 40k after taxes is plenty to do all those things you listed with no debt for us. Try that when real estate property taxes cost $15K per year for an "average" home. Or rent for a 1 bedroom efficiency apartment is $1,400 but a parking space cos...
by market timer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12391

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

A Wizard of Earthsea, by Ursula Le Guin. It's the current WSJ book club choice. Ordinarily I don't read fantasy, but thought I'd try something different.
by market timer
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 133
Views: 9464

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

My own budget in retirement looks something like this (annual numbers): $2K housing (condo fees + utilities) $5K childcare $12K food + toiletries $0.5K transportation $0.5K clothes $5K travel + entertainment + gifts It's a nice, simple life for me. My wife spends another $25K at the mall on things l...
by market timer
Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12391

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

The average retired household in 2011 spent $38K, of which $26K came from Social Security and other pensions. Note that only $3K came from passive income sources, listed as "interest, dividends, rental income, other property income."

http://www.bls.gov/cex/2011/Standard/occup.pdf
by market timer
Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12391

Re: Can I stop saving for a retirement 30 years in the futur

If you really only need $30K/year, I don't think you need to save anything for "old-age" retirement. Presumably, you'll get at least that much from Social Security, plus you have a DB pension plan, and there is home equity that can be tapped in an emergency. In a few years, you'll have a p...
by market timer
Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I stop saving for a retirement 30 years in the future?
Replies: 11
Views: 2576

Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Grok, I must have missed this post originally. Just read it now and have a few comments: 1. The past 40 years were unusual in that interest rates declined substantially. Corporate bonds often have a call provision that Treasury bonds do not, so when rates decline, the borrower can redeem the bond at...
by market timer
Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 7137

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

IMO no, for a real movie fan I don't see how it's possible to honestly have only ONE favorite. Heck even having a top ten of equal favorites could be hard. I will try, but it really depends on what mood I am in. OK, here's an expanded list. I was fortunate to live near the Museum of Modern Art in N...
by market timer
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 3188

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

FreddieG wrote:
market timer wrote:Tough call, but probably Amores Perros for me.


Y Tu Mama, Tambien !

Agreed, another great one.
by market timer
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 3188

Re: want to live foreign country

with ss income $1500 and Vg portfolis,and retiremnt income total $3500 per monthes so can i make it live off in the other country may be in phlipine or tailand or You can afford to live in luxury in the Philippines or Thailand on $5K/month as a single person: serviced apartment in a prime location,...
by market timer
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: want to live foreign country
Replies: 10
Views: 1334

Re: What will you do when you retire?

Retired a few months ago in my 30s, shortly after the birth of my son. Retirement has been more or less what I expected--endless summer vacation. Throughout college and grad school, I took almost every summer off, so I'm familiar with (perhaps spoiled by) not having a job to go to. My son occupies q...
by market timer
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: What will you do when you retire?
Replies: 37
Views: 3696

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

Tough call, but probably Amores Perros for me.
by market timer
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 3188

Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats

My biggest financial risk as an early retiree is illness requiring expensive medical care. Currently, I'm a US citizen living overseas, and my preference would be to seek treatment in the US if I were to develop a chronic condition. Unfortunately, I've recently learned that I have an elevated risk o...
by market timer
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats
Replies: 7
Views: 444

Re: Max out Roth IRA or pay student loans faster?

Do you have a sense of how your income will increase over the next 5-10 years? You're doing well to keep rent so low, but your loans are high relative to your income. How much will you need for a downpayment and when? My initial guess, assuming your income will grow at 2-3% above inflation over the ...
by market timer
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Max out Roth IRA or pay student loans faster?
Replies: 8
Views: 716

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Let me break it down. Let's say this particular property is worth $200K (this is all hypothetical.) It is composed of two units which rent for $909 a piece, so total gross rent for twelve months is $21,818. 45% of that rent goes to pay expenses like vacancies, maintenance, management, and big ticke...
by market timer
Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2456

Re: What are you up YTD?

market timer on Aug 26 wrote:I'm almost entirely in cash right now, but am up just over 20% ytd, mostly from Treasuries.

Basically flat since my Aug 26 post, still up over 20% ytd. I have reallocated out of cash into bonds, int'l equities, and precious metals, after the recent strengthening of the US dollar.
by market timer
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 141
Views: 11821

Re: 500k retirement strategy?

Right now, the bond market is paying 0.28% real for 10 years. With stocks, you are looking at 2-4% real, in expectation, with a large variability in possible outcomes. My ballpark estimate for a 60/40 portfolio is 2% real, which would allow roughly $10K/year in spending, if the goal is to maintain b...
by market timer
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500k retirement strategy?
Replies: 9
Views: 3135

Re: Are Savings Bonds Considered Cash?

The key question in whether to consider these savings bonds as cash-like or bond-like is when you plan to redeem them. If you don't plan to redeem these bonds for another 15 years, they are bond-like.
by market timer
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Savings Bonds Considered Cash?
Replies: 16
Views: 982

Re: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?

OP, your situation is very similar to mine before I retired a few months ago. I think you have a good plan and are following your values. Try to live frugally for the next 2-3 years and save your high income, if you can tolerate it. It helps reduce job stress to keep in mind that your work situation...
by market timer
Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?
Replies: 106
Views: 7163

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Half-way through Replay , by Ken Grimwood. It's about a 43-year-old guy who dies in 1988 and returns to life back in his freshman dorm in 1963 with the memory of his first life, then dies again 25 years later and returns to his 18-year-old self again and again. Pretty sure this book inspired the mov...
by market timer
Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 133
Views: 9464

Re: What's Your up to the minute AA?

45% Long term Treasuries (25+ year maturity)
25% Emerging markets equities
20% Developed markets equities (ex-US)
30% Precious metals
-20% Cash

Also long investment grade credit and short equity volatility, but not sure how to report those percentages meaningfully.
by market timer
Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your up to the minute AA?
Replies: 110
Views: 9514

Re: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks

Yes, I remember that week well. It was life changing. Can't believe I managed to retire less than six years later. Here's one from the archives.

Image
by market timer
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 4412

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

[*] Health insurance has changed -1.8% (rather different from your number. Did your employer start paying a different percentage, or some other reason for your plan just didn't fit the national average there?) Something to consider with regard to health insurance is that one's own premium should ou...
by market timer
Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6498

Re: Things that you will not spend money on and most people

Busting Myths wrote:But you did at one time, right?

Yes, I have spent on those categories in the past, but have increasingly embraced simplicity. Sold my car 14 years ago, haven't owned one since. Not having to show up for work every day has cut down my costs considerably.
by market timer
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things that you will not spend money on and most people do?
Replies: 78
Views: 4021

Re: Things that you will not spend money on and most people

For reference, here is the latest Consumer Expenditure data from the BLS, broken down by age group: http://www.bls.gov/cex/2011/share/age.pdf The big stuff I don't spend money on that others do: Housing (no rent, no property taxes, no mortgage) Health insurance Automobile, automobile insurance, gas ...
by market timer
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things that you will not spend money on and most people do?
Replies: 78
Views: 4021

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

well i think a 4% safe withdrawal rate could work with an all tips portfolio at a 1% real rate. We are not going to live forever, so we can dip into principal (judiciously). so say you have a 30 year tips ladder. you start living off it at say age 67 and have 30 year retirement horizon- i.e. till a...
by market timer
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6498

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

No, a fair comparison would be SSO/IEI 50/50 vs SPY/IEI 50/50. There are three separate points in this side thread that are being combined and I think adding some confusion: 1. It is possible to replicate the returns SPY using SSO over a long horizon, paying only the borrowing costs of SSO and high...
by market timer
Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 414
Views: 36808

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

Hi, market timer.The point was that the news from all five are directed towards (and from) the international and highly connected business community. I agree, given that fact, that the country of origin of the publication may not be very relevant. Like any community, it has its inherent culture and...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 3024

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

Really? Five finance-based publications (read and directed largely towards the business and finance community and all US or UK- based) read collectively will give you an unbiased perspective on the world? Read news from highly journalistic- respected media sources based in countries whose politics ...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 3024

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

I can assure half in 2x stocks, half in bonds will track 100% in stocks reasonably over months/years as I've been using such for years and measure my results relative to the non leveraged equivalents in total net of costs and taxes terms - and for me LETF's are a no-brainer preferred choice . On pa...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 414
Views: 36808

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Just remember that you need to rebalance once/year or so otherwise the tracking error can start to drift excessively. Agree with you that leveraged ETFs are a fine way to implement this strategy. However, seems to me that using rebalancing bands, rather than a calendar-based frequency, would make m...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 414
Views: 36808

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Finished The Good Earth and moving onto the next book, Sons, in Pearl S. Buck's trilogy.
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 133
Views: 9464

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

Financial Times (subscription required)
CalculatedRisk
Bloomberg
WSJ
The Economist
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 3024

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Interesting. So, without the data package you can't get quotes, right? I was trading options, so I couldn't see doing without the data package. At any rate, I needed the package for whatever it was I was doing. You can get the bid/offer on options from a different broker that doesn't charge for data.
by market timer
Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 414
Views: 36808

Re: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like

JonnyDVM wrote:
matjen wrote:Crash


Beat me to it.

Easily the worst Best Picture winner I've ever seen.
by market timer
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like
Replies: 150
Views: 8207

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

I need to spend more time understanding options and futures. I know that there are S&P 500 index futures which are sufficiently diverse, but I don't know of a similar bond future. There are Treasury bond futures. You can buy those plus corporate bond and mortgage ETFs (e.g., VCLT, VCIT, MBB) to...
by market timer
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 414
Views: 36808

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Really not much interest in the Permanent Portfolio these days. Many more questions lately about leverage and 100% equities. I'm adding some gold and silver.
by market timer
Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 71
Views: 5282

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

I have no health insurance now, I pay cash for services in SE Asia. It's the main reason I always keep my SWR below 2.5% (in the absence of a major health event). Many people believe that they are insured but unless it is international expat insurance with guaranteed renewability and pool pricing, ...
by market timer
Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3080

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

I will add that I am very happy that I overestimated my retirement expenses. Yeah, I've found it surprisingly cheap living overseas as well. I have a couple random questions about your living expenses as an expat. What are you doing about health insurance? Have you managed to get credit card sign u...
by market timer
Fri Oct 03, 2014 6:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3080
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