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Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Grok, I must have missed this post originally. Just read it now and have a few comments: 1. The past 40 years were unusual in that interest rates declined substantially. Corporate bonds often have a call provision that Treasury bonds do not, so when rates decline, the borrower can redeem the bond at...
by market timer
Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 45
Views: 6654

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

IMO no, for a real movie fan I don't see how it's possible to honestly have only ONE favorite. Heck even having a top ten of equal favorites could be hard. I will try, but it really depends on what mood I am in. OK, here's an expanded list. I was fortunate to live near the Museum of Modern Art in N...
by market timer
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 2984

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

FreddieG wrote:
market timer wrote:Tough call, but probably Amores Perros for me.


Y Tu Mama, Tambien !

Agreed, another great one.
by market timer
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 2984

Re: want to live foreign country

with ss income $1500 and Vg portfolis,and retiremnt income total $3500 per monthes so can i make it live off in the other country may be in phlipine or tailand or You can afford to live in luxury in the Philippines or Thailand on $5K/month as a single person: serviced apartment in a prime location,...
by market timer
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: want to live foreign country
Replies: 10
Views: 1225

Re: What will you do when you retire?

Retired a few months ago in my 30s, shortly after the birth of my son. Retirement has been more or less what I expected--endless summer vacation. Throughout college and grad school, I took almost every summer off, so I'm familiar with (perhaps spoiled by) not having a job to go to. My son occupies q...
by market timer
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: What will you do when you retire?
Replies: 37
Views: 3582

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

Tough call, but probably Amores Perros for me.
by market timer
Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 2984

Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats

My biggest financial risk as an early retiree is illness requiring expensive medical care. Currently, I'm a US citizen living overseas, and my preference would be to seek treatment in the US if I were to develop a chronic condition. Unfortunately, I've recently learned that I have an elevated risk o...
by market timer
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats
Replies: 0
Views: 157

Re: Max out Roth IRA or pay student loans faster?

Do you have a sense of how your income will increase over the next 5-10 years? You're doing well to keep rent so low, but your loans are high relative to your income. How much will you need for a downpayment and when? My initial guess, assuming your income will grow at 2-3% above inflation over the ...
by market timer
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Max out Roth IRA or pay student loans faster?
Replies: 8
Views: 704

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Let me break it down. Let's say this particular property is worth $200K (this is all hypothetical.) It is composed of two units which rent for $909 a piece, so total gross rent for twelve months is $21,818. 45% of that rent goes to pay expenses like vacancies, maintenance, management, and big ticke...
by market timer
Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2321

Re: What are you up YTD?

market timer on Aug 26 wrote:I'm almost entirely in cash right now, but am up just over 20% ytd, mostly from Treasuries.

Basically flat since my Aug 26 post, still up over 20% ytd. I have reallocated out of cash into bonds, int'l equities, and precious metals, after the recent strengthening of the US dollar.
by market timer
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 141
Views: 11780

Re: 500k retirement strategy?

Right now, the bond market is paying 0.28% real for 10 years. With stocks, you are looking at 2-4% real, in expectation, with a large variability in possible outcomes. My ballpark estimate for a 60/40 portfolio is 2% real, which would allow roughly $10K/year in spending, if the goal is to maintain b...
by market timer
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500k retirement strategy?
Replies: 8
Views: 2509

Re: Are Savings Bonds Considered Cash?

The key question in whether to consider these savings bonds as cash-like or bond-like is when you plan to redeem them. If you don't plan to redeem these bonds for another 15 years, they are bond-like.
by market timer
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Savings Bonds Considered Cash?
Replies: 16
Views: 977

Re: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?

OP, your situation is very similar to mine before I retired a few months ago. I think you have a good plan and are following your values. Try to live frugally for the next 2-3 years and save your high income, if you can tolerate it. It helps reduce job stress to keep in mind that your work situation...
by market timer
Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?
Replies: 106
Views: 7079

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Half-way through Replay , by Ken Grimwood. It's about a 43-year-old guy who dies in 1988 and returns to life back in his freshman dorm in 1963 with the memory of his first life, then dies again 25 years later and returns to his 18-year-old self again and again. Pretty sure this book inspired the mov...
by market timer
Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 120
Views: 7289

Re: What's Your up to the minute AA?

45% Long term Treasuries (25+ year maturity)
25% Emerging markets equities
20% Developed markets equities (ex-US)
30% Precious metals
-20% Cash

Also long investment grade credit and short equity volatility, but not sure how to report those percentages meaningfully.
by market timer
Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your up to the minute AA?
Replies: 110
Views: 9345

Re: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks

Yes, I remember that week well. It was life changing. Can't believe I managed to retire less than six years later. Here's one from the archives.

Image
by market timer
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sixth anniversary of worst week ever for stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 3988

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

[*] Health insurance has changed -1.8% (rather different from your number. Did your employer start paying a different percentage, or some other reason for your plan just didn't fit the national average there?) Something to consider with regard to health insurance is that one's own premium should ou...
by market timer
Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 89
Views: 6055

Re: Things that you will not spend money on and most people

Busting Myths wrote:But you did at one time, right?

Yes, I have spent on those categories in the past, but have increasingly embraced simplicity. Sold my car 14 years ago, haven't owned one since. Not having to show up for work every day has cut down my costs considerably.
by market timer
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things that you will not spend money on and most people do?
Replies: 78
Views: 3994

Re: Things that you will not spend money on and most people

For reference, here is the latest Consumer Expenditure data from the BLS, broken down by age group: http://www.bls.gov/cex/2011/share/age.pdf The big stuff I don't spend money on that others do: Housing (no rent, no property taxes, no mortgage) Health insurance Automobile, automobile insurance, gas ...
by market timer
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things that you will not spend money on and most people do?
Replies: 78
Views: 3994

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

well i think a 4% safe withdrawal rate could work with an all tips portfolio at a 1% real rate. We are not going to live forever, so we can dip into principal (judiciously). so say you have a 30 year tips ladder. you start living off it at say age 67 and have 30 year retirement horizon- i.e. till a...
by market timer
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 89
Views: 6055

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

No, a fair comparison would be SSO/IEI 50/50 vs SPY/IEI 50/50. There are three separate points in this side thread that are being combined and I think adding some confusion: 1. It is possible to replicate the returns SPY using SSO over a long horizon, paying only the borrowing costs of SSO and high...
by market timer
Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31520

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

Hi, market timer.The point was that the news from all five are directed towards (and from) the international and highly connected business community. I agree, given that fact, that the country of origin of the publication may not be very relevant. Like any community, it has its inherent culture and...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 2979

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

Really? Five finance-based publications (read and directed largely towards the business and finance community and all US or UK- based) read collectively will give you an unbiased perspective on the world? Read news from highly journalistic- respected media sources based in countries whose politics ...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 2979

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

I can assure half in 2x stocks, half in bonds will track 100% in stocks reasonably over months/years as I've been using such for years and measure my results relative to the non leveraged equivalents in total net of costs and taxes terms - and for me LETF's are a no-brainer preferred choice . On pa...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31520

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Just remember that you need to rebalance once/year or so otherwise the tracking error can start to drift excessively. Agree with you that leveraged ETFs are a fine way to implement this strategy. However, seems to me that using rebalancing bands, rather than a calendar-based frequency, would make m...
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31520

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Finished The Good Earth and moving onto the next book, Sons, in Pearl S. Buck's trilogy.
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 120
Views: 7289

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

Financial Times (subscription required)
CalculatedRisk
Bloomberg
WSJ
The Economist
by market timer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 2979

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Interesting. So, without the data package you can't get quotes, right? I was trading options, so I couldn't see doing without the data package. At any rate, I needed the package for whatever it was I was doing. You can get the bid/offer on options from a different broker that doesn't charge for data.
by market timer
Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31520

Re: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like

JonnyDVM wrote:
matjen wrote:Crash


Beat me to it.

Easily the worst Best Picture winner I've ever seen.
by market timer
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like
Replies: 150
Views: 8007

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

I need to spend more time understanding options and futures. I know that there are S&P 500 index futures which are sufficiently diverse, but I don't know of a similar bond future. There are Treasury bond futures. You can buy those plus corporate bond and mortgage ETFs (e.g., VCLT, VCIT, MBB) to...
by market timer
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31520

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Really not much interest in the Permanent Portfolio these days. Many more questions lately about leverage and 100% equities. I'm adding some gold and silver.
by market timer
Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 71
Views: 5186

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

I have no health insurance now, I pay cash for services in SE Asia. It's the main reason I always keep my SWR below 2.5% (in the absence of a major health event). Many people believe that they are insured but unless it is international expat insurance with guaranteed renewability and pool pricing, ...
by market timer
Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3039

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

I will add that I am very happy that I overestimated my retirement expenses. Yeah, I've found it surprisingly cheap living overseas as well. I have a couple random questions about your living expenses as an expat. What are you doing about health insurance? Have you managed to get credit card sign u...
by market timer
Fri Oct 03, 2014 6:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3039

Re: Variable annuity + student loans + retirement = uncertai

It looks to me like you have the right plan: wait until you see what kind of job you get next year, then decide what to do with your savings. I believe you can opt-out of IBR into lower payment plans (such as graduated/extended repayment) at any time. That would likely be the correct strategy for yo...
by market timer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity + student loans + retirement = uncertainty
Replies: 6
Views: 396

Re: Variable annuity + student loans + retirement = uncertai

Suppose you do get a PSLF-qualifying job earning $200K+. How much debt would be forgiven in 5 years?
by market timer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity + student loans + retirement = uncertainty
Replies: 6
Views: 396

Re: Should I include this in my net worth?

Yes, I would include it, discounted by the expected tax rate.
by market timer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I include [banked vacation days] in my net worth?
Replies: 40
Views: 2965

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

Maybe it depends on personality and personal risk tolerance. But say one early retires, and the next year there is a major unexpected expense (medical, home repair, car failure, etc) and/or a major market downturn. Do you say, "Eeek, time to go back to work?!" or do you say, "Let's w...
by market timer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3039

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

Obviously lots of variables here. For example, what do you consider expenses? Is imputed rent an expense? Are you eligible for Obamacare and Social Security? What other forms of welfare will you receive by retiring early? Will both spouses retire? I was comfortable leaving the work force before age ...
by market timer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3039

Re: Should I pay off my sisters student loans?

Personally, I'd rather have $165K in cash and $165K in Federal student loans than no cash and no loans. In other words, you might want to give your sister the cash and let her decide whether to pay off the loans or take a public service career where they are forgiven.
by market timer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my sisters student loans?
Replies: 49
Views: 3572

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

If you take this question to its logical extreme, you end up with Mortgage Your Retirement: buy all your stocks as soon as possible, use new savings to pay down your margin loan. The problem with this solution is that stocks are not the only risky assets--you also have bonds and maybe stuff like rea...
by market timer
Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 5130

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

In Thailand, it is rather cheap. We have a one-year-old and hired a full-time (6.5 days/week) live-in nanny for about $500/month. She prepares most of his meals out of fresh fruit, rice, fish, and vegetables. A recent trip to the pediatrician at a top private hospital cost $50, including the medicin...
by market timer
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 58
Views: 4401

Re: What's wrong with leverage?

This has been a popular question recently.
by market timer
Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with leverage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1120

Re: BIG ($180k) student debt!! Strategy needed.

Are you filing MFS to take advantage of income based repayment? Is she working for a nonprofit that could qualify for Public Service Loan Forgiveness?
by market timer
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BIG ($180k) student debt!! Strategy needed.
Replies: 47
Views: 5581

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

grayfox wrote:I used Yahoo Adj Close, which is Close price adjusted for dividends and splits. So my calculation should take into account diviends.

OK, that makes sense. I didn't read carefully enough. Surprised the long term performance was that dreadful despite the commodity boom.
by market timer
Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 71
Views: 5186

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Even after falling for the past two years, GLD grew 2.6x. S&P 500 grew a respectable 2x. Meanwhile CCF fund PCRIX really stunk up the joint, showing a net loss of -8.99% over that period. To make this comparison fair, it should account for dividends. PCRIX paid some large dividends, as I recall.
by market timer
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 71
Views: 5186

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

Techcrium, the answer to your question is clearly no, you can lose money on a leveraged investment even if you aren't forced to sell. There is no guarantee equities will return more than your borrowing costs. Just look at the Nikkei over the past couple decades. The MYR thread is quite long and has ...
by market timer
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1553

Re: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice

narcissa wrote:I have no mortgage now- Im a renter.

Would it reduce your monthly expenses if you bought a house instead of renting?
by market timer
Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice
Replies: 45
Views: 7453

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

If you are interested in the period, I highly recommend the below: http://www.amazon.com/Chinas-War-Japan-1937-1945-Struggle-ebook/dp/B00AZRDP32 Thanks for the recommendation. I'll check it out, along with Old Demon. I'm hoping to fill in some of the large gaps in my knowledge of Asian history now ...
by market timer
Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3372
Views: 1191526

Re: inherited 500k, still a college student, how to invest??

I agree with your dad's advice to learn how to invest, and this is a great site for you to do that. Consider the major expenses you will likely incur over the next 5-10 years, particularly education and housing. You should set aside any money you expect to use to complete your education or for a dow...
by market timer
Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: inherited 500k, still a college student, how to invest???
Replies: 55
Views: 5324

Re: Yen almost @ 109 to the dollar

It's non-trivial to strip out the effect of the tax increase because it didn't apply to everything, but in terms of gross consumer prices (what the CPI is supposed to measure, after all) it seems pretty obvious that the target has been overshot, enough to push the government into damage-control mod...
by market timer
Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yen almost @ 109 to the dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 2208
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