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Re: VWO seems cheap right now

BBL wrote:I've been observing Z14 & H15 on globex - up and climbing this morning. Z14 From +12 to + 15.25 last I looked. More news no Boglehead can use I guess....

Yeah, if something is showing up in futures prices, it's no longer news you can use.
by market timer
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18348

Re: Roth conversion tax question

This is news to me. Maybe this could be solved by having several Roth custodians. Convert to Custodian A in year 1, B in year 2, ... , E in year 5, draw from A in year 6, B in year 7, ... , E in year 10.
by market timer
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth conversion tax question
Replies: 23
Views: 1253

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

livesoft wrote:What about middle east markets open on Sunday?

Same goes for them. They weren't trading Friday at 4pm.
by market timer
Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18348

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

What has S&P futures got to do with VWO? Note: VWO is the subject of this thread. I currently do not own any shares of VWO. Sure, overseas markets that closed before Friday's US markets have to play catch-up or catch-down and react to events that occurred over the weekend. VWO closed trading on...
by market timer
Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18348

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Since the markets that were open on Sunday have tanked, watch what happens to VWO here in the US on Monday. I smell RBD. Also note VWO goes ex-dividend this week, Greece does some things, the Fed has some announcements, etc. It will be quite a volatile and interesting week. S&P futures are actu...
by market timer
Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18348

Re: At what age did you find dream job?

Age 26. The best job I ever had was making markets in-game for televised sporting events on Tradesports, especially NCAA football and basketball during March Madness. I was consistently profitable trading my own money, had no boss, and was able to work from home watching sports a few days a week. Do...
by market timer
Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what age did you find dream job?
Replies: 32
Views: 2587

Re: Self-Managed All-Seasons Risk-Parity Allocation?

Your portfolio seems fine, if a tad conservative. Risk-parity strategies tend to use leverage to meet higher return targets. Your expected return is probably only around 1% above inflation. First time buying ETFs and in no huge hurry, so I'm looking to set a daily limit buy to 1% under NAV until I g...
by market timer
Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Self-Managed All-Seasons Risk-Parity Allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1136

Re: How do you factor entitlements into your investing plan?

I'm assuming I'll be able to buy subsidized health insurance in my 50s under the Affordable Care Act and receive Social Security benefits close to current estimates, perhaps reduced slightly by a switch to a chain-weighted CPI for benefits indexing. There is wide support for a larger safety net, and...
by market timer
Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you factor entitlements into your investing plan?
Replies: 50
Views: 3747

Re: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds

PoppyA wrote:Not an ibond fan for the following reasons:

1. The government sets the rate of inflation, but come on...they don't include food, gas, etc.

Food and gas are included in the CPI.
by market timer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 4242

Re: Leaving my job. Moving to Shanghai. Help with finances!

6. Working Abroad: Any advice as to finding a job abroad, specifically in Shanghai? Moving my position there/taking a sabbatical are not options for me. I'm planning to travel for a bit, but then would begin looking for work opportunities, whether it be a business professional position like I have ...
by market timer
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving my job. Moving to Shanghai. Help with finances!
Replies: 24
Views: 3046

Re: Use of UGMA/UTMA accounts

We have our son's UGMA/UTMA invested in a bond fund. Since the first $1K/year of interest is tax-free, and the next $1K taxed at the child's low marginal rate, the UTMA/UGMA is a good place to hold bonds.
by market timer
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use of UGMA/UTMA accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 4241

Re: Why did you quit your job?

The main reason was that I was living in a different location from my family, so could only see them about 5 days per month. This also means having to pay rent on an extra apartment and airfare. A second reason was that the job was not a good match with my skills. I was willing to make do with this ...
by market timer
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why did you quit your job?
Replies: 37
Views: 4234

Re: High(ish) earner; spending too much?

I've seen many people go from earning $400K+/year to not being able to find a job earning $200K. Enjoy it while it lasts.
by market timer
Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High(ish) earner; spending too much?
Replies: 66
Views: 7003

Re: How to hedge expected inflation?

My limited understanding about TIPs tells me that they are best used inside a portfolio to protect against unexpected inflation. But what is one to use to hedge expected inflation inside a portfolio? thank you. I'm not sure the word "hedge" makes much sense unless applied to contingencies...
by market timer
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to hedge expected inflation?
Replies: 25
Views: 1750

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Have seen many lackluster movies recently, but enjoyed Before Midnight last night. It had DW and I talking about taking a long vacation in Greece, and wondering what the next installment in Linklater's series will be.
by market timer
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 250
Views: 26774

Re: Youngster talented in science and math

There is also Asimov's Foundation series. Paul Krugman wrote the intro for Foundation, and said it inspired him to become an economist.
by market timer
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Youngster talented in science and math
Replies: 47
Views: 3277

Re: Who Paid for the wedding?

My wife's family handled all the wedding planning and costs. Don't know the total cost, but it was pretty lavish and even attended by a head of state. They also invited 98% of the guests. I paid for the engagement ring, and my parents paid for the honeymoon. We plan to share the cash wedding gifts, ...
by market timer
Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who Paid for the wedding?
Replies: 94
Views: 6488

Re: Question about VEA today

Daily changes in int'l markets are reported from close-to-close of local market trading, so the hours often don't align with US trading. For example, in Europe, you might be looking at the 11am - 11am (NY time zone) change in prices, while US markets, including int'l ETFs, are reported based on the ...
by market timer
Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about VEA today
Replies: 2
Views: 346

Re: Share your networth progression

Your story reminds me of the retireby40.org guy. I think he did something similar, and wife still works. I'm hoping to follow a similar path, though at an older age. Hopefully retire by 40-45. I can't stand office jobs. Conversely my wife is one of those weirdos that actually ENJOYS her job and wor...
by market timer
Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your networth progression
Replies: 132
Views: 24071

Re: Share your networth progression

Gotcha. Seems reasonable if you only require $20-$25k. It's interesting that you're essentially funding your own retirement while your wife continues to work separately but only for herself. Out of curiosity, what is your AA? Yeah, it works for us. My AA varies quite a bit. Over the long run, I exp...
by market timer
Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your networth progression
Replies: 132
Views: 24071

Re: Share your networth progression

My progression: 1/1/09: -$210K (started working this year) 1/1/10: -$120K 1/1/11: -$35K 1/1/12: $150K 1/1/13: $300K 1/1/14: $510K 8/1/14: $690K (retired) I averaged income a bit over $200K/year and had substantial investment/trading gains to help. If you include my wife's assets, we are over $1mn. ...
by market timer
Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your networth progression
Replies: 132
Views: 24071

Re: Share your networth progression

My progression:

1/1/09: -$210K (started working this year)
1/1/10: -$120K
1/1/11: -$35K
1/1/12: $150K
1/1/13: $300K
1/1/14: $510K
8/1/14: $690K (retired)

I averaged income a bit over $200K/year and had substantial investment/trading gains to help. If you include my wife's assets, we are over $1mn.
by market timer
Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your networth progression
Replies: 132
Views: 24071

Re: Bah Humbug [managing Christmas spending]

For the past several years, I have been giving precious metals coins. This year, I'm giving people 2015 Chinese silver panda coins. They are quite pretty. It doesn't feel like a waste of money, like spending on a typical consumption item, as I expect the coins to retain inflation-adjusted value. Som...
by market timer
Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bah Humbug [managing Christmas spending]
Replies: 52
Views: 4613

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

I agree about the next year. I was thinking more about a series of one-year holding periods extending into the future, which I think has been mentioned as one way to think about it. I haven't actually ran the numbers on this, but if you wrote down a number for expected interest expenses at Jan 1st ...
by market timer
Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 510
Views: 56301

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

So basically, the PV of the EE bond is the PV of the cash flow plus the $250ish value of the put option. I was just trying to understand how to value the put option. Yeah, the redemption option value is quite low now--potentially even lower than that if you tax-adjust the EE YTM, which lowers the o...
by market timer
Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Can you be more specific about exactly what the hedging trade is? What does that trade cost to maintain? I suggest breaking down the EE bond into simpler components: a 20-year zero coupon bond and a put option. Then decide what kind of exposure you would like to have. If you want no interest rate r...
by market timer
Fri Nov 28, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

To get around this, I'll actually short Treasury bonds, typically via futures, against my EE bonds. So, you can actually get out of this trade at times, you just can't use the bonds as collateral, e.g., to buy an above-market CD. I won't claim to grasp the finer points of interest rate bets, but wh...
by market timer
Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: When do you feel comfortable financially to have kids?

Never. We basically put it off for as long as we could. DW was 36 when our son was born. Now I wonder whether we'll regret this decision to wait if/when we are older and looking forward to grandkids. The upside is that I can afford to be a stay-at-home dad.
by market timer
Thu Nov 27, 2014 12:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do you feel comfortable financially to have kids?
Replies: 59
Views: 4320

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

Molecular Biology of the Cell, Alberts et al.
Complexity, Waldrop
Evolution of Cooperation, Axelrod
The Most Instructive Games of Chess Ever Played, Chernev
by market timer
Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 117
Views: 9604

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

You can argue that this is just liquidity (the two are not unrelated), but I think when we're talking about ridiculous differences in timeline, tomorrow vs in 15 years , you might as well give it a different sort of value. We're talking about having the choice to exit a 15 year trade you no longer ...
by market timer
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

...My take is that you should value something at what you would be willing to pay for it on the open market, even if that market does not exist... Well, there is an authentic question here. When entering numbers in a spreadsheet, when should I use "the market value" and when should I use ...
by market timer
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

So here we have a poster of market timer 's caliber (for whom I have a ton of respect) gushing over the value of a put option that in reality becomes essentially worthless within a few years, compared to the zero coupon bond he is basing his valuation on. The problem is, in five years the zero coup...
by market timer
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

... I'd like to refine the third approach (present value) to account for three things: (1) optionality, (2) tax treatment, (3) liquidity. .... EE bonds are not just 20-year zero coupon bonds, but 20-year zero coupon bonds with a put option ... Sure, EE bonds have some advantages versus a 20-year ze...
by market timer
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Do I need to change the compounding frequency in my original PV calculation? The compounding frequency should match what the WSJ uses for quoting its yields; however, this is a level of precision that is probably not necessary here. To verify the valuation, I would just use the bid price on Nov 203...
by market timer
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Personally, I believe if newly issued $10K EE bonds could trade on the market, they would trade for roughly $12K at today's rates, with the $2K premium split 50/50 between the above-market rate (3.5% vs. 3.0% for comparable duration Treasuries) and value of optionality. I agree with with your asses...
by market timer
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

This is a surprisingly controversial topic on here. We have had several threads in the past on how to value both EE and I bonds. My take is that you should value something at what you would be willing to pay for it on the open market, even if that market does not exist. Indeed, this is exactly the q...
by market timer
Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 3712

Re: Girlfriend with a LOT of Student debt.

From what you've described, I'm willing to bet she's on either Public Service Loan Forgiveness or some other loan forgiveness program. If so, this debt is very manageable--just think of it as a tax on your joint income. Down the road, you might want to postpone an official marriage until the loans a...
by market timer
Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend with a LOT of Student debt.
Replies: 166
Views: 13611

Re: 401k loan to pay off CC & student debt

I would take out the 401K loan and keep the PenFed balance transfer offer as an option in case of an emergency.
by market timer
Sun Nov 23, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k loan to pay off CC & student debt
Replies: 19
Views: 2225

Re: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget

Thanks for all the suggestions. I'm discussing them with DW now. You can go to Moscow. Ruble is down and Aeroflot is cheap. Moscow and St. Petersburg are high on my list of places to visit next, but I'm worried they would be too cold in January. Just saw the avg high in Moscow in January is well bel...
by market timer
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget
Replies: 19
Views: 1765

Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget

DW and I are thinking of booking a trip to Europe in late Jan. We have been to most of the major cities already (London, Paris, Rome, Venice, Vienna, Prague, Amsterdam), so were thinking of something less crowded this time. Excluding airfare, we'd like to keep the trip under $3K (~$270/day for 11 da...
by market timer
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget
Replies: 19
Views: 1765

Re: GDX +20% since Nov 5th lows

Took profits today on GDX and GDXJ of 15-20%, still own GG. Probably booked profits way too early.
by market timer
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GDX +20% since Nov 5th lows
Replies: 10
Views: 1423

Re: What to calculate withdrawals on?

Using a withdrawal rule, such as 4%, on only a fraction of one's total wealth will lead to too little consumption. You should include not only assets you have access to today, but also the present value of pensions and retirement accounts you will have access to in the future.
by market timer
Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to calculate withdrawals on?
Replies: 11
Views: 932

Re: GDX +20% since Nov 5th lows

I didn't get the exact low, but am up double digits on purchases of GG, GDX, and GDXJ made on Oct 30-31. These comprise 10% of my portfolio, a meaningful punt. Quite a volatile time for the miners.
by market timer
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GDX +20% since Nov 5th lows
Replies: 10
Views: 1423

Re: Emergency and earmarked funds - investing ideas

Is it possible to pay for any of this just from normal monthly savings? I'd probably drop the emergency fund and use a credit card with a 0% purchase APR to buy stuff for the home, the wedding, and possibly the engagement ring.
by market timer
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency and earmarked funds - investing ideas
Replies: 8
Views: 1421

Re: How Not to Retire

No one with the wherewithal to find this board is going to come close to making any of the juvenile mistakes he made Well, I certainly can't agree with this statement. Fortunately, it's easier to overcome loss when one is still employed than after retiring. I'm reminded of a quote from The Way of A...
by market timer
Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Not to Retire
Replies: 67
Views: 7973

Re: What NW amount makes this person financially free?

Incidentally, I fit your example pretty closely--mid-30s, spending $20-25K/year. I had no qualms about leaving the workforce with around $500K invested, 40 quarters paid into Social Security (qualifying for benefits of $18K/year in today's dollars at full retirement age), and a paid off condo. Of co...
by market timer
Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What NW amount makes this person financially free?
Replies: 19
Views: 2462

Re: What NW amount makes this person financially free?

Depends on how easily you can find another job. Shouldn't be hard to find a job capable of supporting $24K/year spending. No need to wait for financial independence before taking a 4-month vacation.
by market timer
Sat Nov 15, 2014 2:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What NW amount makes this person financially free?
Replies: 19
Views: 2462

Re: 36 y.o. New at investing, am I in too much debt?

Or someone mentioned taking a 15k loan from my 403b? And pay myself interest back. But I'm not 100% agreeing with that unless I'm missing something? I was the one who recommended the 403b loan, and actually I'd recommend taking the maximum amount, which is likely $50K, to pay down your high interes...
by market timer
Sat Nov 15, 2014 12:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 36 y.o. New at investing, am I in too much debt?
Replies: 63
Views: 5962

Re: question about my student loans...

I will get in touch with them. Wish I had done this sooner. I naturally should have looked into this sooner but I would think any extra payments should go towards the principal not an interest payment. I think the payments were probably applied correctly. What FRx is missing is that unsubsidized st...
by market timer
Fri Nov 14, 2014 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: question about my student loans...
Replies: 18
Views: 2288

Re: Living abroad in retirement

Keep in mind that Japan is a large country that skews towards an older demographic. These are going to be overwhelmingly Japanese-Americans and Americans married to Japanese. I expect very few Americans without ties to Japan would choose to retire there, due to its relatively high cost of living and...
by market timer
Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Living abroad in retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 469
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