Search found 5493 matches

by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates on I-Bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 1776

Re: Zero Interest Rates on I-Bonds

I agree with #Cruncher. Those I bonds have good rates relative to the market, we've just had a temporary downturn in CPI due to the oil slump.
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best use of early retirement (low income) years?
Replies: 15
Views: 1414

Re: Best use of early retirement (low income) years?

Yeah, savings bonds might bump your marginal tax rate on something like a Roth conversion from 15% to 25% in 20 years. To determine whether this is a problem, you should consider the alternative. I guess munis? There you sacrifice some yield for the next 20 years (vs. savings bonds), but you save on...
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: real estate in NYC
Replies: 21
Views: 1652

Re: real estate in NYC

Not only are housing prices very high in NYC, you also have to pay the city income tax if you live there, which works out to about $20K/year for you. I know people who moved to NJ specifically to avoid that tax. As others have suggested, I would look for work elsewhere, particularly since you are a ...
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 88
Views: 4692

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

To make you feel better, here is our daily food budget for two adults:

Breakfast: $5 (coffee + croissants at home)
Lunch: $15 (restaurant)
Afternoon coffees: $5 (Starbucks)
Dinner: $40 (restaurant, includes 1 alcoholic drink)

Total: $65/day or about $2K/month
by market timer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 4:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: expecting zero taxes this year (FEIE); how to avoid tax on 403(b) contributions
Replies: 3
Views: 350

Re: expecting zero taxes this year (FEIE); how to avoid tax on 403(b) contributions

I would go with option 2: Rollover to an IRA then convert to a Roth. I do not believe you can apply the FEIE to conversions; however, you have some tax-free space in the form of a standard deduction and personal exemptions. You should try to convert your rollover IRA to your Roth at least up to the ...
by market timer
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2938

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

I generally have a large allocation to long term bonds. My time horizon is (hopefully) long. I'm investing to fund my own consumption in 30+ years or that of my children. The typical analysis of MPT is a one-year horizon. I guess that kind of myopia makes sense if you are a portfolio manager, since ...
by market timer
Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash EE bond to pay down the mortgage?
Replies: 7
Views: 522

Re: Cash EE bond to pay down the mortgage?

I would be inclined to consider the $11K EE bond as part of my emergency fund, and use $11K from the emergency fund (not the EE bond) to pay down the mortgage.
by market timer
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2156

Re: Help buying LEAPs

This isn't my specialty, but I wonder who would take the short side of the 30-year option trade. That would be costly for a bank to keep on its balance sheet. I think there are variable annuities with floors that might actually be similar. Why would it be costly for a bank to keep on its balance sh...
by market timer
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2156

Re: Help buying LEAPs

ideally a risk averse investor with a limited time horizon wants a stock index or stock portfolio with a floor. so say stock index with a long term put option. mathematically this is equivalent through put call parity to a zero coupon long term bond plus a long term call option. Yeah, I agree with ...
by market timer
Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unique Social Security Question
Replies: 3
Views: 744

Re: Unique Social Security Question

Why not hire the kids for $7500/year each? Then they can put the money in their Roth IRAs.
by market timer
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2156

Re: Help buying LEAPs

Has Zvi Bodie published anything where he argues why TIPS + LEAPS is superior to TIPS + equities? I read some of the stuff linked to in the earlier thread, and agree with essentially everything he has written. However, I have not seen him justify the why of this strategy. I agree with the basic liab...
by market timer
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gift taxes for non-resident aliens
Replies: 2
Views: 204

Gift taxes for non-resident aliens

My wife recently received a cash gift from a relative of roughly $300K. We file taxes as MFJ. Are there any US tax implications of this gift? The relative lives outside the US and does not file US taxes. Also, we are keeping this cash in a foreign bank account. Is the FBAR/FATCA reporting more onero...
by market timer
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get a job as a software developer?
Replies: 39
Views: 3567

Re: How to get a job as a software developer?

Lots of good advice above. I strongly suggest getting a college degree if you don't have one--doesn't have to be CS. Otherwise, you'll have a much harder job search for the rest of your life. As someone mentioned above, you might want to try for a data analyst role initially. There are many jobs tha...
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military career or Top MBA
Replies: 37
Views: 3671

Re: Military career or Top MBA

With a computer science undergrad degree and some nice scholarships for grad school, have you considered a career in the tech industry? The finance industry is in decline. There is an oversupply of MBAs with vague career plans.
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10609

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHM?

So you would be paying down a mortgage (building equity of maybe $12K/year assuming your house appreciates with inflation), saving about $20K/year for retirement, and putting close to $7K/year into Social Security (your employer contributing another $7K). I see no problems here.
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Bucket Portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1575

Re: Auto Bucket Portfolio

As a one-fund solution to this problem, I believe the Managed Payout Fund offered by Vanguard is what you're looking for.
by market timer
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10609

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHM?

easye418 wrote:Without my wife working at all and at $85K, I would take home ~$4,800-$5,200 net a month.

I just feel like I would be running FAR too lean to be comfortable.


Looks like your take-home number assumes maxing out your 401K. If so, you are not running that lean at all.
by market timer
Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2852

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

I think the answer is yes that it is possible to be a skilled investor/speculator/bettor and due to volatility drag/poor betting strategy practically always end up broke. The caveat here is that I am defining skill as having a positive expectation on all bets made. Here is a post from a poker forum...
by market timer
Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Productivity and Pay
Replies: 9
Views: 711

Re: Productivity and Pay

Martin wrote:Seems perfectly logical. The right half saw increases in productivity needed to offset a mismatch in global wage rates.

The increasing participation of women in the US labor force also slowed overall wage growth.
by market timer
Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student loan repayment vs retirement savings
Replies: 4
Views: 578

Re: Student loan repayment vs retirement savings

My preference would be for option 2, with a slight modification: take out a loan from either the 457(b) or 401(k) (or both) to accelerate loan repayment.
by market timer
Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off Student Loan in 2016?
Replies: 19
Views: 1512

Re: Pay off Student Loan in 2016?

What if something happens and someone needs to take time off from work to care for the children or an elderly parent? That is much easier with smaller required fixed payments. Student loans have income based repayment option. The minute you lose or quit your job, you can apply to have your loan pay...
by market timer
Sun Jul 12, 2015 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off Student Loan in 2016?
Replies: 19
Views: 1512

Re: Pay off Student Loan in 2016?

I think it would be a mistake to prioritize loan repayment over tax deferred investing when you have such a low interest rate. I recommend that you continue making the minimum payment on these loans unless long term interest rates decline significantly (e.g., 30-year Treasuries below 2.5%). Paying d...
by market timer
Sun Jul 12, 2015 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where are people putting their investment money if they see a correction coming in US stock market
Replies: 69
Views: 7578

Re: Where are people putting their investment money if they see a correction coming in US stock market

Every financial advisor I have met with lately says the same thing - basically, there is going to be a 30-50% correction in the stock market in the next 2-3 years. Has it occurred to you that the financial advisors you are meeting with are quick to pick up on your sentiment and essentially echo you...
by market timer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are foreign currency gains reported for taxes?
Replies: 5
Views: 425

Re: How are foreign currency gains reported for taxes?

I thought it was capital gains, but I'm not 100% sure. There is a de minimus exception for under $200 at a time for personal use. See Sec 988 for all the details. Some discussion: http://www.maximadvisors.com/2013/12/us-taxation-of-foreign-currency-gains-or-losses/ https://www.fenwick.com/FenwickDo...
by market timer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are foreign currency gains reported for taxes?
Replies: 5
Views: 425

Re: How are foreign currency gains reported for taxes?

The real problem that I see is that the deposits made while overseas would have been made at different dates with different applicable exchange rates. Agreed, this really seems like an onerous record keeping burden for a bank account that might have hundreds of withdrawals and deposits per year. Th...
by market timer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How are foreign currency gains reported for taxes?
Replies: 5
Views: 425

How are foreign currency gains reported for taxes?

In my brief search, I've failed to see how foreign currency gains show up on US tax returns. Consider an example where you wire $100K overseas into a foreign bank account, where it's converted to 90K Euros. You then work overseas for several years, earning 400K Euros, and add 110K Euros to the same ...
by market timer
Fri Jul 10, 2015 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Anyone Plan to Work Past 70 years of Age
Replies: 63
Views: 5507

Re: Does Anyone Plan to Work Past 70 years of Age

I plan to retire from my career at around age 54-55 (9 years from now) to live in Japan so that my wife can be with her mother in her final years. I imagine we'll live there for about 5 years. I may do some consulting, but definitely will be spending my time studying Japanese and Chinese, traveling...
by market timer
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commuting vs. weekday widowing
Replies: 27
Views: 2473

Re: Commuting vs. weekday widowing

Buysider wrote:Anyone out there with first hand experience on this dilemma?

I dealt with an extreme form of this (different countries). You might find it actually improves your relationship with your wife.
by market timer
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commuting vs. weekday widowing
Replies: 27
Views: 2473

Re: Commuting vs. weekday widowing

We were lucky to see him before 7pm most days and even then the small time we saw him after work was not quality time because he was so burnt out and in zombie mode. It was like he was working 5 days straight for 24 hours a day with a small 2hr break each day for his family. I hope this helps you m...
by market timer
Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are US Gov Bond Yields Higher than German?
Replies: 13
Views: 1457

Re: Why are US Gov Bond Yields Higher than German?

You cannot make any meaningful comparison between two countries' yields unless they are borrowing in the same currency.
by market timer
Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Married and Living in Separate States
Replies: 10
Views: 2031

Re: Getting Married and Living in Separate States

One option is to have a wedding but not get legally married. DW and I did this.
by market timer
Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending from separate retirement buckets
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Spending from separate retirement buckets

Several people are claiming that a bucket approach is just semantics or mental accounting, that it has no difference in practice from using a target allocation. While I agree that at any point in time, a bucket approach can be viewed as the sum of its components, a bucket approach behaves differentl...
by market timer
Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Utils and REITs down this year?
Replies: 12
Views: 1308

Re: Why are Utils and REITs down this year?

Long term interest rates have risen this year. As risk-free rates increase, other securities with relatively predictable cash flows must offer higher rates of return to compensate. Here is a one-year chart of 30-year real interest rates: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1o...
by market timer
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending from separate retirement buckets
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Spending from separate retirement buckets

Yeah, in the example I gave, you'd let the portfolio drift to something more stock heavy over time, spending the fixed income. The main point I wanted to emphasize in my example is that the first portfolio will be spent in, say, 8 years (maybe ages 60-68). So, the average liability it is meeting is...
by market timer
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending from separate retirement buckets
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Spending from separate retirement buckets

I think it makes sense to have different allocations for different goals. A common example is an early retiree planning to draw heavily from his portfolio before Social Security kicks in, then much less in later years. To me, those are two different goals, requiring two different portfolios. Some p...
by market timer
Mon Jun 29, 2015 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spending from separate retirement buckets
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Spending from separate retirement buckets

I think it makes sense to have different allocations for different goals. A common example is an early retiree planning to draw heavily from his portfolio before Social Security kicks in, then much less in later years. To me, those are two different goals, requiring two different portfolios.
by market timer
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring @ 60; $1 million (portfolio)
Replies: 22
Views: 6986

Re: Retiring @ 60; $1 million (portfolio)

Your plan seems reasonable to me. My one suggestion is to separate the portion of your portfolio meant for spending in the next 10 years from the part that will cover spending beyond age 70. For the portfolio you intend to spend over the next 10 years (roughly $600K, assuming you delay SS until age ...
by market timer
Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?
Replies: 21
Views: 2891

Re: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?

Without PSLF, I'd advise you to pay down your loans with this money if the loans had an interest rate of roughly 4% or higher. PSLF makes things more complicated. You're basically paying an extra 2.9% vs. what I'd be comfortable paying (i.e., 6.9% vs. 4%). Let's say it takes you 5 years to figure o...
by market timer
Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?
Replies: 21
Views: 2891

Re: I've got $80k burning a whole in my pocket, what should I do with it?

Without PSLF, I'd advise you to pay down your loans with this money if the loans had an interest rate of roughly 4% or higher. PSLF makes things more complicated. You're basically paying an extra 2.9% vs. what I'd be comfortable paying (i.e., 6.9% vs. 4%). Let's say it takes you 5 years to figure ou...
by market timer
Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring Abroad
Replies: 22
Views: 3988

Re: Retiring Abroad

The US is rather tax friendly for people living on passive income, plus you might get subsidized health insurance (Obamacare) and Medicare later in life. It's my top choice for retirement, and I live overseas currently. I think there is a better financial case to be made for working abroad in your ...
by market timer
Sun Jun 21, 2015 5:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring Abroad
Replies: 22
Views: 3988

Re: Retiring Abroad

Additionally, for anyone considering living abroad I would not underestimate the benefits of social security. I'd certainly advocate working enough to get one's benefits (10 years) and, ideally, contribute enough to hit the first bend point. I don't mean to hijack the thread, but what is the first ...
by market timer
Sat Jun 20, 2015 1:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Top 10 Books
Replies: 56
Views: 7396

Re: Your Top 10 Books

Wind-Up Bird Chronicle, Murakami Glass Bead Game, Hesse Siddhartha, Hesse Thousand Autumns of Jacob de Zoet, Mitchell Lost Illusions, Balzac Journey to the End of the Night, Celine Confederacy of Dunces, Toole The Most Instructive Games of Chess Ever Played, Chernev Complexity, Waldrop Bonfire of th...
by market timer
Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration - why is it expressed in years?
Replies: 13
Views: 1468

Re: Duration - why is it expressed in years?

Good wikipedia article on this: In finance, the duration of a financial asset that consists of fixed cash flows, for example a bond, is the weighted average of the times until those fixed cash flows are received. When an asset is considered as a function of yield, duration also measures the price se...
by market timer
Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate hedged bond ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 766

Re: Interest rate hedged bond ETF

market timer: In what manner is the 197bps hedging cost paid for? Is it amortized over time? The expense ratio, with fee waiver, is just.25%. The cost is paid implicitly via Treasury futures. Futures prices take into account yield differentials between reference bonds and the risk-free rate. It is ...
by market timer
Fri Jun 19, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate hedged bond ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 766

Re: Interest rate hedged bond ETF

Anyone using these? ishares has a few, investment grade corporate and high yield corporate. It looks like you sacrifice 20-30 bps, seems like a small price to pay for that feature. You should expect to pay in hedging costs roughly the risk-free rate for the duration of the unhedged fund. LQD has a ...
by market timer
Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies
Replies: 30
Views: 3767

Re: Your Top 10 Bands and Top 10 Movies

Based on listening frequency over the years, my favorite bands are: Kings of Convenience Midlake Fleet Foxes Interpol Arctic Monkeys Modest Mouse Smashing Pumpkins Pink Floyd The Beatles Radiohead For movies, I'll give 13: Sunset Blvd (1950) Ikiru (1952) Vertigo (1958) The Hustler (1961) A Clockwork...
by market timer
Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do your children cost per month?
Replies: 83
Views: 6984

Re: How much do your children cost per month?

19-month-old child $450/month nanny Only $450/month for a nanny? For how many hours? Is one of you a stay-at-home parent or do you have family help? This is for 360 days per year, around the clock care. It's in Thailand where labor is cheaper. I should add maybe $200/month imputed rent to this cost...
by market timer
Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do your children cost per month?
Replies: 83
Views: 6984

Re: How much do your children cost per month?

19-month-old child $450/month nanny $100/month food $50/month diapers $50/month clothes (mostly gifts) $50/month health care $50/month toys and books (mostly gifts) $50/month other stuff: crib, stroller, monitor, etc. Next year: $1000/month nursery instead of nanny $800/month extra imputed rent from...
by market timer
Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring Abroad
Replies: 22
Views: 3988

Re: Retiring Abroad

The US is rather tax friendly for people living on passive income, plus you might get subsidized health insurance (Obamacare) and Medicare later in life. It's my top choice for retirement, and I live overseas currently. I think there is a better financial case to be made for working abroad in your 3...

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