Search found 424 matches

by magneto
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decumulation Phase and BH principles
Replies: 49
Views: 5721

Re: Decumulation Phase and BH principles

Haven't noticed sequence of returns risk mentioned yet; which may be the #1 problem for a retiree. Seem to recall Wade Pfau has published papers on this issue. We retired in 92, and for us key elements in our investment philosophy from then on were/are :- 1. Natural Real Yields on competing asset cl...
by magneto
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlording Tips
Replies: 33
Views: 4519

Re: Landlording Tips

(4) Pricing: I like to price the units at $100 below what I think is market value. I realize I may be leaving "money on the table" but I rather get a fair number of applications and minimize vacancies. More importantly, I want to get my pick of the tenant pool. I rather have a great tenan...
by magneto
Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3912

Re: Rebalancing

It's quite simple really. To maximise a rebalancing bonus (ignore risk for a moment), the investor needs to buy an asset class at the bottom and sell at the top. :happy A half wave length. Daily rebalancing works splendidly in rippling sideways markets (short half wave lengths) but can be a problem ...
by magneto
Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Set It and Forget It Works!
Replies: 37
Views: 7627

Re: Set It and Forget It Works!

This intrigues me, for as far as I can establish Rick has always fallen into the camp of never looking at valuations when deciding on asset allocations? Unlike Graham, Larry, Shiller, Bernstein, who will at least to some degree under certain circumstances. "By 1999, we had all the money we need...
by magneto
Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing risk during a market crash/correction.
Replies: 37
Views: 3373

Re: Increasing risk during a market crash/correction.

An argument could be made that when the market tanks risk is actually lower, not higher. If you simply rebalance you will be buying stocks at lower prices. Paul +1 When markets tank risk may be lower in absolute if not in volatility terms, and the expected return a little higher. Rebalancing to a f...
by magneto
Wed Jun 03, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to React When the Bear's Hibernation Ends"
Replies: 48
Views: 7145

Re: Sleep like a baby.

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

My asset allocation is simple: Money I cannot afford to lose is in bonds and cash. The rest is in stocks.

I sleep like a baby.

Best wishes.
Taylor


+1
Happy dreams :happy
by magneto
Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!
Replies: 29
Views: 4867

Re: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!

Buyback Authorizations: highest ever M&A deals: highest ever Valuation of M&A deals: highest full year level on record Percent IPOs unprofitable: at or near highest level ever Shiller CAPE: highest except 1929, 2000, and 2007 Median Price to Sales: highest since 1964 Investor allocation to ...
by magneto
Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to React When the Bear's Hibernation Ends"
Replies: 48
Views: 7145

Re: "How to React When the Bear's Hibernation Ends"

It's also not clear that it accomplishes that much. More or less continuous rebalancing during 2008-2009 had almost no overall effect. It actually made the decline slightly worse, and the recovery slightly better, with practically zero net. The idea that rebalancing is a big win depends either on r...
by magneto
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 9275

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Mebane Faber has written on this subject in 'Shareholder Yield (a better approach to investing)'. Mebane defines Shareholder Yield = Dividend Yield + Net Buyback Yield + Net Debt Paydown Yield Thoughts :- 1. The changes in company taxation have distorted what was once a perfectly good valuation meas...
by magneto
Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Equity Valuations "Too high"?
Replies: 16
Views: 1840

Re: Are Equity Valuations "Too high"?

Are (US and international) equities overpriced? Should I worry about possible interest rate hikes and it's negative effect on the bond portion of my future portfolio? Or shouldn't I be worrying about this at all? I'm 32, non US investor, target AA 20-25% bonds/75-80% equities, and have about $400k ...
by magneto
Sun May 31, 2015 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income
Replies: 58
Views: 5311

Re: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income

Have managed at last to get the link working, and this caught my eye :- “You have to train your brain to ignore the price movement. You want to focus on the income production and the growth of that income.” Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500’s dividends have grown an average 5.7% a year, somewh...
by magneto
Sun May 31, 2015 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income
Replies: 58
Views: 5311

Re: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income

A dividend is the portion of the company that the managers decided to liquidate and give to shareholders. That's it. So in essence, a dividend IS selling a portion of your assets. It's just the company managers who are doing it, not you. So who's to say that the amount that the managers thought the...
by magneto
Thu May 28, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 96
Views: 9829

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

I've read a lot on VG and here and know the philosophy, but we are really struggling with the market being so high right now. (Of course, that's what we were thinking when we cashed out in 2013!) Any ideas appreciated! Ed Monthly q data may be of interest :- http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshor...
by magneto
Wed May 27, 2015 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 9995

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Trying to think of an analogy for volatility or risk. Suppose a tight-rope walker is crossing a chasm on an elastic rope. The elasticity of the rope may determine the volatility (rise and fall of the acrobat). The risk however could be the worst case fall scenario determined by the height of the rop...
by magneto
Sun May 24, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 9995

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Interesting thread, esp the Warren Buffett quote and the thoughts from dbr. Have been continually uneasy about the risk = volatility definitions approach. Risk in this investor's book is downside risk, which is asymmetric. Volatility however is symmetric, with the upside maybe perhaps not truly risk...
by magneto
Sat May 23, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No bonds?? All Equity portfolio in 20s
Replies: 71
Views: 7743

Re: No bonds?? All Equity portfolio in 20s

Take a look at the following link :- http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation.php Would this same question be asked in 2009? Has anything changed? As noted above: whether non-equities are held as bonds or cash, in the event of a stock downturn, would the portfol...
by magneto
Fri May 22, 2015 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near
Replies: 54
Views: 7296

Re: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near

To say the 35 year bull market in stocks is ending now is nonsense. It didn't end when the S/P dropped to 800 in 2002 or 700 in 2009? I guess you could say we've been in a bull market since the Great Depression by that rationale. The fact is no one has any idea where the market will go in the futur...
by magneto
Mon May 18, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?
Replies: 50
Views: 5241

Re: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?

Had to check the date this thread started, as bond yields have been improving recently! For trend (momentum) followers bonds may, repeat may, have started the long awaited bear market, so now would not be a good time to buy. For value investors, every time bond prices fall the more interesting they ...
by magneto
Fri May 15, 2015 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"
Replies: 46
Views: 4417

Re: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"

To me the best argument for an increased International presence in the stock portion of the portfolios is that the United States has a shrinking share of the world stock market. If you want a truly global portfolio, your allocation to International Stocks should reflect that. One would suppose so, ...
by magneto
Mon May 11, 2015 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of consistent dividend growth
Replies: 18
Views: 1695

Re: Skeptical of consistent dividend growth

As retirees we do tilt very slighly to yield, adding to the portfolio for this purpose active closed end funds with very slightly above market(s) yield . These are in addition to our core trackers. Main purpose of this exercise is to provide a steady retirement income floor regardless of market(s) v...
by magneto
Thu May 07, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to buy bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1827

Re: Bad time to buy bonds?

Many of the soothing words about the currrent bond bubble? look at total return, rather than the capital value and yield separately as we might with stocks. Ingesting the yield back into total capital over time, if the investor is taking the income out, might be misleading? In the UK one of the most...
by magneto
Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Manager consistently crushing the market [calculation error]
Replies: 27
Views: 3746

Re: Manager consistently crushing the market

The FTSE100 is in any event a curious collection of companies, unbalanced sectorially, not an ideal index to follow passively. The FTSE100 has been grim. It is up around only 38% since December 1997 compared to my mothers investment of 460% (after costs). Do you know what would be a good benchmark ...
by magneto
Wed Apr 29, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees - What would you have done differently?
Replies: 48
Views: 6825

Re: Retirees - What would you have done differently?

The biggest pay-off for us was to reduce stocks substantially as valuations soared in the late 90s and to use the proceeds to invest in a few small residential rental properties. At the time the real yields on property were 10% plus while stocks real yields 1%/2% depending on the market. It saved ou...
by magneto
Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Manager consistently crushing the market [calculation error]
Replies: 27
Views: 3746

Re: Manager consistently crushing the market

There are two fund managers in the UK who deserve respect, and are widely followed :- Neil Woodford (as mentioned above) and to a lesser extent Terry Smith No doubt they will make a mistake someday, but for now seem to be steadily outperforming. The UK market may be one in which it is better to avoi...
by magneto
Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's holding cash?
Replies: 86
Views: 6789

Re: Who's holding cash?

I've liquidated my retirement accounts of all the higher fee active funds my old FA had me in...so I'm sitting on 30% cash. My portfolio is at an all time high and I'm little worried about at least a small correction. I know it's not a Boglehead thing to do...to time the market. But who else out th...
by magneto
Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses
Replies: 30
Views: 1878

Re: cleaning plastic eyeglass lenses

Have tried all sorts of methods over years like many mentioned above. For those that have not used them, try Zeiss lens wipes as mentioned by cheese_breath above. They are quick and easy to use, and result in superbly clean lenses. Each cloth comes solvent dampened in a sealed sachet. No messing abo...
by magneto
Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash
Replies: 69
Views: 8288

Re: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash

Re the Japan issue, remember that PE1 in Japan (from memory) reached 80 ish? That was the irrational moment, so the subsequent Japan poor stock performance is hardly a surprise. However the point is well made about the dangers of domestic bias. While belonging to the 'valuations matter' clique, S&am...
by magneto
Sat Apr 04, 2015 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Detriments of Rebalancing
Replies: 67
Views: 6309

Re: The Detriments of Rebalancing

Firstly as stated frequently above, rebalancing is primarily about risk control, but if we move on to the rebalancing bonus or detriment :- Some funds using daily rebalancing rang alarm bells recently, so ran a spreadsheet on basis of 60/40 portfolio and stocks falling 50% (=% daily) over 12 months,...
by magneto
Fri Apr 03, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have P/E Ratios Affected Your Asset Allocation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3002

Re: Have P/E Ratios Affected Your Asset Allocation?

1. Perhaps a person will look at the past 5 years, current valuations, future expected returns, and take a more definitive step towards their well thought out retirement AA. 2. We all believe that markets are efficient and can't be timed. Dave 1. Fine. 2. "Efficient markets should be considere...
by magneto
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 131
Views: 14964

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

Without even looking at a backtest, I think a rule of thumb like expecting your stocks to drop by 50% or more at some point, remembering that worst case since 1928 in US it was much worse at about 90%, is all you need. Maybe also keeping in mind examples like Japan, when you don't see a recovery fo...
by magneto
Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would Robo Advisor replace index fund and passive investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1815

Re: Would Robo Advisor replace index fund and passive invest

"powerful enough to calculate everything you need to know in investment including profit impact of your tax rate, the negative impact of the frequent trading, the growth prospect and profit margin of the companies, the economic growth prospect of each countries, the political stability of each ...
by magneto
Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 131
Views: 14964

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I'm a youngish investor and the recent recession was the first one I went through. I remember in 2011ish when the market jumped up from the lows I was positive it would have to come down. I mean it just went up 50% (made up #), we had to be in for a bit of a crash. I left my paltry 401k where it wa...
by magneto
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you had 1 [investing] book to recommend...
Replies: 51
Views: 5620

Re: If you had 1 book to recommend...

One book stumbled across recently 'Millionaire Teacher' by Andrew Hallam. Subtitle 'The Nine Rules of Wealth You Should Have Learned in School'. Don't remember seeing it mentioned here before, could be wrong about that. Don't let the title put anyone off. This is BH mainstream 3 fund passive portfol...
by magneto
Sat Mar 28, 2015 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord/Tenant Credit Checks
Replies: 18
Views: 1066

Re: Landlord/Tenant Credit Checks

We had a situation recently where the wife was a high earner, but the husband had no income being still in education.
No two situations will be the same, so a little common sense may be needed.
by magneto
Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 131
Views: 14964

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

Seems OP you could certainly be a candidate for having at least some cash allocation in the AA at all times, if volatility averse. Valuation-wise Bonds do seem to be in a bubble, Stocks expensive but nowhere near the levels of say 1999, so a dollop of cash would stabilise the portfolio if bonds and ...
by magneto
Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum - how to invest it now and sleep at night?
Replies: 27
Views: 3661

Re: Lump sum - how to invest it now and sleep at night?

There is a school of thought that stocks may dip, but will then, regardless of valuations, always recover and head on steadily North East, so you will see the oft quoted expression 'time in the market is more important than timing the market', whatever the observer may mean by the latter. This appro...
by magneto
Sun Mar 22, 2015 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees
Replies: 26
Views: 2582

Re: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees

Yes : Two good points ; difficult to argue against. However we often point out the sorry history of the investor in Japan, had they been 100% domestic stocks from 1989. Maybe the two points are good reasons to keep international lower than market caps by tilting to domestic in retirement , rather th...
by magneto
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3456

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

1. The best feature of a publicly traded REIT fund or security - you can push a button and SELL or BUY when the market is open - you eliminate the onerous transaction costs associated with real estate brokers, cities, towns, attorneys, title insurance. All of that nonsense goes away. 2. Buy a diver...
by magneto
Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best investment in a deflationary scenario
Replies: 11
Views: 1432

Re: Best investment in a deflationary scenario

CASH. No volatility, increasing purchasing power.
If they had not been bid up so far to present levels, then conventional bonds might also have suited.
by magneto
Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest a large amount of cash?
Replies: 10
Views: 1510

Re: How to invest a large amount of cash?

I plan on using the funds in 6-8 years for a house , so I want to invest them mostly in stocks for the next 2-4 years, then start swapping over to CDs or something more safe. The timeline is also somewhat flexible, so I'm willing to take on some risk. All in all, though, it's definitely terrifying ...
by magneto
Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Lessons From the 6-Year-Old Bull Market"
Replies: 11
Views: 2925

Re: "6 Lessons From the 6-Year-Old Bull Market"

Certainly we should add to our stocks on low valuations (and reduce on high). However before congratulating ourselves on how shrewd we were; a little humility perhaps to remember that without central banks' intervention the picture could have worked out oh so very differently. In the worst scenario ...
by magneto
Sat Mar 14, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett and Bogle almost on the same page
Replies: 19
Views: 2214

Re: Buffett and Bogle almost on the same page

Prefer to look at risk, as downside risk. Therefore in my simple view; the higher the valuation, the higher the risk. Maybe a naive view? Volatility is symmetric, equal up-side and down-side? High valuations' risk can be decidedly asymmetric. Such views of Warren Buffett's seem pragmatic, rather tha...
by magneto
Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds
Replies: 51
Views: 6164

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth vs Separate funds

That being said, VG has looked at this and found no significant advantage or disadvantage to rebalancing quarterly versus annually... Daily rebalancing rang alarm bells recently, so ran a spreadsheet on basis of 60/40 portfolio and stocks falling 50% (=% daily) over 12 months, then comparing daily ...
by magneto
Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?
Replies: 46
Views: 5093

Re: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?

We had massively overpriced equities in 2000 and massively overpriced and over leveraged real estate in 2008. I see no such severe fundamental imbalances and vulnerabilities to our economy at this point, ones that would presage a significant recession. I'm not bailing out of equity now because of t...
by magneto
Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 3519

Re: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio

Good post Browser.
Now let's see how the PP fans respond.
by magneto
Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?
Replies: 46
Views: 5093

Re: U.S. Stock Valuations — Making History?

Or we could be witnessing the demise of CAPE as a reputable measure. I never quite understood why incorporating a past [deep] earnings crash into the current price is supposed to be a good thing. 3-5 years from now, the CAPE will decline naturally even without a big adjustment of prices. I would gu...
by magneto
Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: combo plan - pay down mortgage and invest
Replies: 13
Views: 1201

Re: combo plan - pay down mortgage and invest

Sometimes overlooked is that debt/mortgage is repaid in future inflation eroded currency. The key question is what will inflation be over the repayment period. Don't ask me! If the present -0.1% is an outlier, and inflation returns to say 2%, then the figures in real terms might (looking purely at r...
by magneto
Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of buying electric shaver
Replies: 29
Views: 2052

Re: Thinking of buying electric shaver

Another Braun fan here. Currently using triple foil Series 3 for main shave. The snag with the triple foil is that while it removes all the longer hair, some stubble tends to remain around say mouth. To finish the job I use a cheapo Series 1 single foil which shaves much more closely and thoroughly....
by magneto
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does Real Estate count in Asset Allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 861

Re: How does Real Estate count in Asset Allocation

Why does he own the houses if he is not renting them out? Just find that nonsensical unless I am missing something. Real estate in illiquid, high transaction costs, and can not be rebalanced so they are hard to add to one's concept of portfolio construction and management. +1 One way of looking at ...

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