Search found 212 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

Thanks Bernston for an informative thoughtful post. The preceding wild excess in Japan must have been a key factor in the subsequent underperformance. Seem to remember at the time of the Japan peak all sorts of good reasons being given by the 'experts' as to why 'Japan was different'. Japan houswive...
by magneto
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 45
Views: 1685

High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

The recent thread concerning John Bogle using Corporate Bonds was thought provoking. The main snag with Corporate Bonds is that they have exhibited correlation with stocks, so are down when you need the capital to buy stocks. However later in life bonds are more for income than dry powder for stocks...
by magneto
Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 13
Views: 709

Re: New TV or Sound bar?

This thread strikes home, as we recently had to buy another TV and were horrified by the appalling sound quality on a TV whose picture and sound were both rated good in reviews. Take a look also at sound bases (probably not the Bose which is supposed to be a bit boomy and in any event unlikely to su...
by magneto
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV or Sound bar?
Replies: 35
Views: 1687

Re: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?

Suggest world fund as the core holding, with non-US region funds added thereby reducing US total percentage. Does that make sense? Having said that there is nothing wrong with total world, as we cannot predict with any certainty regions to outperform. US may seem high but we could be surprised by st...
by magneto
Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard All world ETF or Vanguard region ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 808

Re: UK Investment Advice

Yes definitely max out the ISAs while they are still available. They are too good too last! Read the wiki links above. If you have not already done so read 'Smarter Investing' by Tim Hale which is the best Boglehead compliant book for UK investors. Far less important consider Vanguard ETFs if they s...
by magneto
Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investment Advice
Replies: 10
Views: 174

Re: What to do with Win computers?

Running off at something of a tangent. For us old computers are useful for off-line use for vital sensitive documents. Files are never copied from the latest on-line computer to old off-line computers. The vital documents are therefore never put on an on-line computer to be vulnerable to a new attac...
by magneto
Tue Apr 08, 2014 4:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with Win computers?
Replies: 51
Views: 2068

Re: Investing in Equities, But Avoiding Market Top

First let me make it clear that the following is not mainstream BH philosophy, and when suggested in previous posts has stirred strong opposition from some of our most revered posters. For those investors concerned with current valuations (rightly or wrongly) and choose loss aversion rather than opt...
by magneto
Sat Apr 05, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Equities, But Avoiding Market Top
Replies: 13
Views: 1072

Re: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market

Not perhaps relevant to bonds :- Market timing. Benjamin Graham has this to say in The Intelligent Investor. ‘Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting...
by magneto
Fri Apr 04, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market
Replies: 44
Views: 4896

Re: Any Bogleheads here into real estate investing?(renting

We came at the rental real estate (RRE) option from another route. As retirees we had capital mostly in stocks but very little income. Looking at the real yields on all asset classes (RRE is a real yield like stocks), RRE was at the time leading the way by far. Never in our lives before had we ever ...
by magneto
Fri Apr 04, 2014 5:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Bogleheads here into real estate investing?(renting out)
Replies: 53
Views: 3641

Re: Written IPS strategy for next crash - Advice?

Some form of 'Dynamic Asset Allocation' is an outside possibility based on firmer foundations such as valuations for the IPS, rather than just watching falls, see :- http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=134378 It is already difficult enough to simply rebalance as markets rise and...
by magneto
Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Written IPS strategy for next crash - Advice?
Replies: 15
Views: 1335

Re: Investing Advice

Take the time to educate yourself before taking any decisions. Investing need not be difficult. Read the wiki and the books recommended on the forum such as :- The Bogleheads Guide to Investing, Larimore et al The only guide to a Winning Investment Strategy you'll ever need, Swedroe All about Asset ...
by magneto
Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Advice
Replies: 2
Views: 138

Re: The Intelligent Investor

Has anyone read this book? If so, there is a comment there that I find very interesting regarding asset allocation. The discussion is to keep 25-75% in stocks and 75-25% in bonds depending on risk and view on the market. Here we all say we can't time the market. But the question I have should we ed...
by magneto
Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 27
Views: 3290

Re: PE10 And Its Rivals

This article on the overall subject of constructing these metrics is well worth reading--a couple of times: http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/12/23/valuation-and-returns-adventures-in-curve-fitting/ This is the best thing I have read on the topic. Everyone should read this article. R...
by magneto
Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 And Its Rivals
Replies: 23
Views: 1517

Re: PE10 And Its Rivals

Hussman is interesting this week as always concerned about valuations. The opening para in particular was unsettling.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140317.htm
by magneto
Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 And Its Rivals
Replies: 23
Views: 1517

Re: Financial, social or health investment

4. I will probably keep most of my existing investments for a while and gradually rebalance as I am still very worried about reinvesting all at once into equities in order to rebalance to the chosen AA. Timing and choosing what to put into is, in my opinion, important and needs to de-risked. Glad y...
by magneto
Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2362

Re: Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'

AA should be based on need, willingness, and ability to take risk. And I take market valuations into consideration when looking at my willingness to take risk. Yes, I think valuations matter. Wade Pfau wrote a paper on Valuation-Based Asset Allocation that I think is pretty good. http://mpra.ub.uni...
by magneto
Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'
Replies: 30
Views: 2039

Re: About to take the plunge, John Bogle 'stocks might drop

I did not mention the fact that this will be my first time investing. I would probably DCA but here in the UK, when investing directly with Vanguard, we must invest 100k minimum, with is a fair size to most people. It would ease the problem if you are hesitatng at investing the 100k minimum direct ...
by magneto
Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to take the plunge, John Bogle 'stocks might drop 25%'
Replies: 42
Views: 6488

Re: Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'

It's pretty tough to do it well. Here's a simulator: http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/TestMarketTimingModel I wish the portfolio and PE10 levels were adjustable but it gives you a fair idea of the results. Backtesting like this should be taken with a grain of salt, but the idea may have some meri...
by magneto
Fri Mar 07, 2014 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'
Replies: 30
Views: 2039

Re: Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'

Wade Pfau wrote a paper on Valuation-Based Asset Allocation that I think is pretty good. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35329/ And if you want to see a boatload of boglehead discussion on the subject, see the Check engine light thread and the nosebleed thread . Many thanks for the links, particular...
by magneto
Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'
Replies: 30
Views: 2039

Re: Dynamic International/Domestic Allocation

Seems an idea worth thinking about. The problem may be how to establish and factor in to the equation the expected growth in the various world regions. While US valuations may seem high compared to the rest of the world, US might lead the way on growth, surprising us all, and justifying those valuat...
by magneto
Thu Mar 06, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic International/Domestic Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 577

Re: UK property mortgage debt and bond funds

I'm looking at building a passive portfolio of (mostly Vanguard) funds with an 80/20 mix in favour of equities - mostly global, but with a bit of small/value/emerging. Bond-wise, I'm considering half in short-dated UK gov bonds, and the other half in index-linked UK gov bonds. My investing horizon ...
by magneto
Wed Mar 05, 2014 6:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK property mortgage debt and bond funds
Replies: 6
Views: 291

Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'

Have been using a dynamic stock target method based on valuations, but reaching that target with caution (currently 10% of deviation per quarter). Some posters say that ‘valuations matter, and matter a lot’, while others put to one side valuations and are not in favour of Dynamic Asset Allocation (D...
by magneto
Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Asset Allocations or do 'Valuations Matter'
Replies: 30
Views: 2039

Re: Asset Allocation Disaster - any help appreciated

I don't see how it's good advice for him to help stay the course in the future by never staying the course from the beginning and always being on the lookout for "valuation signals". Having him make constantly make judgment calls on the market is not a good alternative. ogd First of all l...
by magneto
Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Disaster - any help appreciated
Replies: 39
Views: 3874

Re: Asset Allocation Disaster - any help appreciated

Holding a constant percentage stocks at all times is a fine discipline, forcing the investor to sell on rises and vice versa. However it takes no account of market valuations. A dynamic allocation target based on stock market valuations is then an alternative as touched on by Benjamin Graham in The...
by magneto
Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Disaster - any help appreciated
Replies: 39
Views: 3874

Re: Asset Allocation Disaster - any help appreciated

Holding a constant percentage stocks at all times is a fine discipline, forcing the investor to sell on rises and vice versa. However it takes no account of market valuations. A dynamic allocation target based on stock market valuations is then an alternative as touched on by Benjamin Graham in The ...
by magneto
Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Disaster - any help appreciated
Replies: 39
Views: 3874

Re: Index fund with no Income Tax burden?

Thanks for response; but I have not read the books. Does the book help with the specific issues raised? If so, please say how. Tim Hale's book is essential reading for a UK passive investor although it is not fully up to date with the relatively new low cost Vanguard ETFs, Rick Ferri (USA) is a reg...
by magneto
Fri Feb 21, 2014 5:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2362

Re: Some discussion from the UK

Several issues raised each of which may be worthy of a separate post. Have you read books which such as the following which align with the BH philosophy and might prove useful, to kick off the debate and focus in on the many issues raised : All about Asset Allocation, Rick Ferri Smarter Investing, T...
by magneto
Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2362

Re: At what does it make sense to sell?

Would work out the yield of the property using current valuation (which is a real yield as rents rise with inflation) and compare with the real yields after inflation on other asset classes. Stocks, IBonds, TIPS, etc, provide real yields. For nominal bonds, cash,, etc, deduct inflation. Would requir...
by magneto
Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what does it make sense to sell?
Replies: 15
Views: 1488

Re: Coming to terms with my awful track record

There have been times in the past when using individual stocks have felt like BCL that I had discovered the reverse Midas touch.

Now worried by azanon's post since have also been recently buying miners and emerging markets. Too popular?

All Best
by magneto
Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coming to terms with my awful track record
Replies: 20
Views: 2095

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Dollar-Cost Averaging

Thanks stlutz for a wondrous post, haven't laughed so much for ages.
by magneto
Tue Feb 04, 2014 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Dollar-Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 5352

Re: What is your definition of "Wealthy?"

Agree with those others who think wealth should not be an end in itself, but that a healthy and happy family is far more important. To return to the question asked, would suggest one possible easy measure to define 'Wealthy' is when the assets throw off enough rising income stream for one's needs, w...
by magneto
Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your definition of "Financially Wealthy?"
Replies: 110
Views: 9645

Re: Plummeting Bond fears and duration

Thanks LH for the reassuring post. There are two issues that trouble me with bonds at present, which the post only goes part way to resolve :- - Is the real yield on bonds positive after subtracting historic long term inflation 3%? Maybe we should factor in lower inflation % if we are in a new perma...
by magneto
Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plummeting Bond fears and duration
Replies: 14
Views: 1767

Re: Wait for Equity Pullback or Allocate Today?

Where the money was before it became cash is significant. Such sudden changes to AA can psychologically unbalance an investor. If it was mostly stocks yesterday, then why not today? What has changed? What is the concern? Valuations? Then perhaps try a dynamic stock target based on valuations, which...
by magneto
Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait for Equity Pullback or Allocate Today?
Replies: 25
Views: 2277

Re: Wait for Equity Pullback or Allocate Today?

Where the money was before it became cash is significant. Such sudden changes to AA can psychologically unbalance an investor. If it was mostly stocks yesterday, then why not today? What has changed? What is the concern? Valuations? Then perhaps try a dynamic stock target based on valuations, which ...
by magneto
Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait for Equity Pullback or Allocate Today?
Replies: 25
Views: 2277

Re: Does size affect Lump Sum vs. DCA choice?

Don't see that the size of the lump sum affects the decision. Valuations might. Should you feel there is a strong chance of lower valuations during the next say three years, then DCA over that period might prove to be more rewarding, by reducing the book cost of the stocks purchased. While not makin...
by magneto
Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does size affect Lump Sum vs. DCA choice?
Replies: 61
Views: 2142

Re: Not happy with market

Wow. I noticed this thread has popped up again. Where are all the 100% stock threads that were out there just a couple of weeks ago. It is amazing what a 5% drop in the stock market will do. Perhaps the lump sum advocates (regardless of price) will also go quiet for a while? :happy. As you say 'val...
by magneto
Thu Jan 30, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not happy with market
Replies: 148
Views: 13082

Re: Bond duration UK investments

Hi SDN UK Nominal gilt funds (e.g. VGOV) yield less than inflation, but inflation linked INXG throws off a better distribution yield for some reason I don't understand, but as mentioned has a long duration. The 7 year requirement for future expenditure is a real problem. With nominal gilt real yield...
by magneto
Sun Jan 19, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond duration UK investments
Replies: 12
Views: 533

Re: Vanguard Funds (UK) income distributions

Assuming we are talking mutual funds, then try looking at the equivalent Vanguard ETF (if there is one), this may give some approximation.

All Best
by magneto
Fri Jan 17, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Funds (UK) income distributions
Replies: 1
Views: 94

Re: Vanguard Ireland Bond ETF = VGOV

OP thanks for raising the subject of VGOV. As a UK investor had been in iShares IGLT a few years back and have been tracking VGOV as a future lower cost option as and when real yield turns positive, but didn't realise fund size was only $12.5m, Can't see any mention of the fund size on Vanguard UK w...
by magneto
Tue Jan 07, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Ireland Bond ETF = VGOV
Replies: 9
Views: 883

Re: ETFs Market or Limit order

Was once caught out very badly when just using deal at market pricing, by a spike in prices at the moment of the deal. Since then always use limit set sufficient above/below for buy/sell trade to go through without any problem, but with the 'insurance' of the limit to prevent a deal going through at...
by magneto
Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs Market or Limit order
Replies: 31
Views: 3964

Re: Invest all at once or DCA-one of most asked questions I

As has been mentioned in passing, valuations can affect the decision on whether to lump sum or DCA, or taking it further at what speed to go into stocks. Would the lump summers have preferred to lump sum in 1999 or 2009? While we cannot see in to the future, we don't need to rely on hindsight to see...
by magneto
Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest all at once or DCA-one of most asked questions I get
Replies: 125
Views: 5467

Re: Rent Out Condo or Sell It

Thanks Magneto! I just posted my portfolio for review http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=129450 . It is not entirely real estate...does that help the situation if i were to rent it out? Yes that certainly does help. Still a finely balanced decision. There is no obviously correc...
by magneto
Tue Dec 31, 2013 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rent Out Condo or Sell It
Replies: 43
Views: 3016

Re: Rent Out Condo or Sell It

Quick read through the thread did not latch on to how the overall investment portfolio looks. Get the impression that it is all real estate? Hanging on to the condo with a negative cash flow is a pure bet on real estate prices rising, which they may do, but as already pointed out they may decline. W...
by magneto
Tue Dec 31, 2013 6:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rent Out Condo or Sell It
Replies: 43
Views: 3016

Re: Declutter your future

We like to think we are as sharp as the years roll by. Maybe some people are and certainly exercising the brain must help, but it all could be a dangerous illusion since we do not have objective insight to judge as we loose the little grey cells. For me the article rang true, and confirmed the ongoi...
by magneto
Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Declutter your future
Replies: 44
Views: 5164

Re: UK Investor - World ETF or Lifestrategy?

Have always preferred the clarity of ETFs and the ability to trade throughout the day using limit pricing. Like previous poster cjking am troubled about the high US weighting in VWRL, taking note of current US valuations. However if growth comes through stronger in US than the rest of the world it m...
by magneto
Tue Dec 10, 2013 5:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Investor - World ETF or Lifestrategy?
Replies: 15
Views: 1115

Re: Help selecting a rebalancing strategy

longinvest wrote:
Very interesting, magneto. Could you explain what you mean by "rebalance 10% of the way to the desired AA". Is this 10% of the portfolio value, or 10% of the excess/deficit?


The latter.

All Best
by magneto
Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help selecting a rebalancing strategy
Replies: 13
Views: 756

Re: Help selecting a rebalancing strategy

Have been struggling for many years with how to rebalance and read with interest this thread and the many others on the subject. The following is an extract from our IPS, which is the method we chose to address the concerns of an ultra-cautious nature. Not sure if this is original thinking, or borro...
by magneto
Mon Dec 09, 2013 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help selecting a rebalancing strategy
Replies: 13
Views: 756

Re: Only TIPs portfolio

Yes it not unreasonable being utra-conservative when advising aged parents, especially when there is no need to take risk. My mother, aged 94, is mostly all UK equivalent of IBonds plus some cash and quite content with the result.

All Best
by magneto
Sat Dec 07, 2013 6:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Only TIPs portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 1207

Re: Almost ready to finally invest. Please help. [England]

Welcome to the forum. Fellow UK investor here. Very much agree with previous posts that monevator is a great site and Tim Hale's Smarter Investing is about the best book for UK Investors. You will find in the book the advice that reduced to basics, a global stock fund plus domestic bonds (gilts) pre...
by magneto
Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Almost ready to finally invest. Please help. [England]
Replies: 12
Views: 805
Next

Return to advanced search