Search found 451 matches

by magneto
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [How often do you check on your investments?]
Replies: 43
Views: 1719

Re: [How often do you check on your investments?]

Dependant on how the overall markets are moving.
Big changes awake interest and investigation.
Small changes inspire inactivity.
by magneto
Sun Aug 02, 2015 5:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Majority of units in my condo assoc are owned by investors. Is this bad?
Replies: 21
Views: 2040

Re: Majority of units in my condo assoc are owned by investors. Is this bad?

As a real estate investor with many units, two of which are in condominiums, this thread is almost offensive. I love how the assumption is that renters will quickly turn a condo into a roach infested crack house, yet owner-occupied units will remain perfect little Utopias. Yes, some banks may balk ...
by magneto
Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dickens: "a mere United States security..."
Replies: 5
Views: 817

Re: Dickens: "a mere United States security..."

In other words, in 1843, the United States was regarded as so shaky that the way to say something was worthless was to call it "a United States' security!"

Enron? :)

plus ca change
by magneto
Sat Aug 01, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?
Replies: 43
Views: 4005

Re: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?

Emerging markets may \ do not have the economic governance needed to support the investors interests. At some valuation or safety margin, this will be factored into price. As some have observed EM covers a very wide band of differing countries, some with less than scrupulous governance some not. US...
by magneto
Fri Jul 31, 2015 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 239
Views: 10373

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

We have talked about US post 1929, Japan post 1989, as outliers when considering 100% stocks. However another well known stock market index (UK FTSE100) has yet to surpass and hold above it's Dec 1999 peak. For an investor with 100% stocks in that market (spending the dividends) his capital would no...
by magneto
Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 239
Views: 10373

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Backtesting whole periods from history shows that 100% TSM always beats any portfolio with any TBM if you wait long enough (generally 25 years).

Suggest premise is wide of mark.

Try using following link using a PE10 method :-

http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test ... ming-model
by magneto
Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I dump the Vanguard energy Fund in my 401k
Replies: 32
Views: 2883

Re: Do I dump the Vanguard energy Fund in my 401k

Have had similar experiences. As others have pointed out price anchoring can prevent an investor taking his mistakes on the chin, and this was an unduly heavy bet; and means the following should be taken with a heavy pinch of salt. Here is the alternative approach. 1. Let's say a holding starts out ...
by magneto
Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Durability of consumer goods
Replies: 44
Views: 2453

Re: Durability of consumer goods

I agree furniture can last forever. At least in the UK antique (Victorian) furniture has fallen out of fashion. Things that would have cost you £1000 20 years ago can now be had for £200 at an auction house. +1 Has there been a BH thread re antique furniture? Worthwhile money saving/preservation id...
by magneto
Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

What I'm suggesting is, rather than declaring failure and giving up after two days, try to understand why you system is not working and see if you can fix it. The first guy who invented the wheel probably made a square wheel and it didn't work. If he had given up, we'd still be dragging things arou...
by magneto
Sat Jul 25, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rental with heavy appreciation and decent cash-flow – sell or keep?
Replies: 14
Views: 1385

Re: Rental with heavy appreciation and decent cash-flow – sell or keep?

The answer may depend to some extent on what the rest of the OPs portfolio looks like.
by magneto
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment
Replies: 18
Views: 2041

Re: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment

Do you mean nominal or real interest rates? PJW Nominal. $100,000 in physical cash, in a fireproof safe, after one year, will still be $100,000. But less inflation in purchasing power, if we determine real yield as the critical measure for investors. So we have been there, done that. Leaning toward...
by magneto
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

Can you give me your allocation then? Because I haven't seen a winning tactical allocation yet. People talk about how they use valuations to "time the market" but my series of experiments failed. The only "winners" I have seen tend to cook the data and come up with too many infl...
by magneto
Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

I think the difference between monthly/annual rebalancing is slight and just an artifact of data. Annual rebalancing I guess accidentally captures a "momentum" factor which I am not really interested in. Think we have to profoundly differ on this one. Don't dismiss bands from the calculat...
by magneto
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

Monthly rebalancing, matching the frequency of the data. Maybe over frenetic. Momentum benefits will probably be lost. Wm Bernstein has suggested for an investor using time; rebalancing every two to three years!!! Bands are perhaps a better compromise, likely to give a more thoughtful comparison of...
by magneto
Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

Without wading through the spreadsheeet, what are the rebalancing/reallocation techniques employed ? Monthly rebalancing, matching the frequency of the data. Maybe over frenetic. Momentum benefits will probably be lost. Wm Bernstein has suggested for an investor using time; rebalancing every two to...
by magneto
Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2664

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

This fits in my usual "who cares" category. This is very similar to my disdain of the "how are your returns this year" threads. Both make me wonder if folks, even on this site, really understand passive investing. +1 "Based on the historical evidence for the S&P 500 Ind...
by magneto
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

Without wading through the spreadsheeet, what are the rebalancing/reallocation techniques employed ?

The success of Constant Ratio v Variable Ratio will to some degree hinge on the technique chosen. Our old friends momentum and mean reversion coming into play.
by magneto
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Hedge Currency Risk When Planning to Retire Abroad?
Replies: 10
Views: 803

Re: How to Hedge Currency Risk When Planning to Retire Abroad?

I live and work in the US and all my assets are denominated in USD. I plan to retire abroad in New Zealand in 26 years. Personal circumstances and ambitions can change a lot in 26 years. Only suggestion; use an unhedged global fund as the portfolio core stock, to cover for the eventuality of a seri...
by magneto
Mon Jul 20, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "No Bonds" portfolio
Replies: 80
Views: 11070

Re: The "No Bonds" portfolio

Some are recommending that investors consider getting rid of bond funds/etfs completely in their portfolios. About the only reason to hold bond funds these days is as a possible hedge against a significant stock market selloff, but that's an insurance argument and not an investment return argument ...
by magneto
Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?
Replies: 41
Views: 2690

Re: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?

The argument mostly put forward is that you shouldn’t go for income per se at all, but rather you should go for total return from broad market cap index funds and sell down your holdings to generate income as required. Nothing new to add here, but to remind readers that dividends come along almost ...
by magneto
Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?
Replies: 41
Views: 2690

Re: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?

The argument mostly put forward is that you shouldn’t go for income per se at all, but rather you should go for total return from broad market cap index funds and sell down your holdings to generate income as required. Nothing new to add here, but to remind readers that dividends come along almost r...
by magneto
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10
Replies: 83
Views: 6030

Re: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10

Great thread. Well done all contributors. There is a school of thought that stocks may dip, but will then, regardless of valuations, always recover and head on steadily North East, so you will see the oft quoted expression 'time in the market is more important than timing the market', whatever the o...
by magneto
Fri Jul 03, 2015 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)
Replies: 11
Views: 1282

Re: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)

There is a school of thought that stocks may dip, but will then, regardless of valuations, always recover and head on steadily North East, so you will see the oft quoted expression 'time in the market is more important than timing the market', whatever the observer may mean by the latter. This appro...
by magneto
Fri Jul 03, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk of Rebalancing
Replies: 69
Views: 5840

Re: Risk of Rebalancing

This rebalancing thing is quite simple really. :) To maximise a rebalancing bonus (ignore risk for a moment), the investor needs to buy an asset class at the bottom and sell at the top. :) A half wave length!!! Frequent rebalancing works splendidly in rippling sideways markets (short half wave lengt...
by magneto
Fri Jul 03, 2015 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a large emergency fund needed after 59 1/2
Replies: 25
Views: 3444

Re: Is a large emergency fund needed after 59 1/2

Just to add to the above when considering cash versus bonds, saw this today :- http://www.trustnet.com/News/613577/burvill-this-bond-market-is-as-sinister-as-ever/ The author is as uncertain as are all the rest of us, but IMHO the bond market is an accident waiting to happen, but have no idea how or...
by magneto
Thu Jul 02, 2015 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a large emergency fund needed after 59 1/2
Replies: 25
Views: 3444

Re: Is a large emergency fund needed after 59 1/2

I am in a similar situation but the taxable account in my portfolio includes a cash position. I think of that as a combination emergency fund and "dry powder." I should have used past tense because since last fall I had some big unexpected expenses that ate up most of that dry powder. I g...
by magneto
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decumulation Phase and BH principles
Replies: 49
Views: 6115

Re: Decumulation Phase and BH principles

Haven't noticed sequence of returns risk mentioned yet; which may be the #1 problem for a retiree. Seem to recall Wade Pfau has published papers on this issue. We retired in 92, and for us key elements in our investment philosophy from then on were/are :- 1. Natural Real Yields on competing asset cl...
by magneto
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlording Tips
Replies: 33
Views: 4942

Re: Landlording Tips

(4) Pricing: I like to price the units at $100 below what I think is market value. I realize I may be leaving "money on the table" but I rather get a fair number of applications and minimize vacancies. More importantly, I want to get my pick of the tenant pool. I rather have a great tenan...
by magneto
Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 4065

Re: Rebalancing

It's quite simple really. To maximise a rebalancing bonus (ignore risk for a moment), the investor needs to buy an asset class at the bottom and sell at the top. :happy A half wave length. Daily rebalancing works splendidly in rippling sideways markets (short half wave lengths) but can be a problem ...
by magneto
Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Set It and Forget It Works!
Replies: 37
Views: 7960

Re: Set It and Forget It Works!

This intrigues me, for as far as I can establish Rick has always fallen into the camp of never looking at valuations when deciding on asset allocations? Unlike Graham, Larry, Shiller, Bernstein, who will at least to some degree under certain circumstances. "By 1999, we had all the money we need...
by magneto
Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing risk during a market crash/correction.
Replies: 37
Views: 3484

Re: Increasing risk during a market crash/correction.

An argument could be made that when the market tanks risk is actually lower, not higher. If you simply rebalance you will be buying stocks at lower prices. Paul +1 When markets tank risk may be lower in absolute if not in volatility terms, and the expected return a little higher. Rebalancing to a f...
by magneto
Wed Jun 03, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to React When the Bear's Hibernation Ends"
Replies: 48
Views: 7633

Re: Sleep like a baby.

Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:

My asset allocation is simple: Money I cannot afford to lose is in bonds and cash. The rest is in stocks.

I sleep like a baby.

Best wishes.
Taylor


+1
Happy dreams :happy
by magneto
Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!
Replies: 29
Views: 5022

Re: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!

Buyback Authorizations: highest ever M&A deals: highest ever Valuation of M&A deals: highest full year level on record Percent IPOs unprofitable: at or near highest level ever Shiller CAPE: highest except 1929, 2000, and 2007 Median Price to Sales: highest since 1964 Investor allocation to ...
by magneto
Tue Jun 02, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to React When the Bear's Hibernation Ends"
Replies: 48
Views: 7633

Re: "How to React When the Bear's Hibernation Ends"

It's also not clear that it accomplishes that much. More or less continuous rebalancing during 2008-2009 had almost no overall effect. It actually made the decline slightly worse, and the recovery slightly better, with practically zero net. The idea that rebalancing is a big win depends either on r...
by magneto
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 9871

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Mebane Faber has written on this subject in 'Shareholder Yield (a better approach to investing)'. Mebane defines Shareholder Yield = Dividend Yield + Net Buyback Yield + Net Debt Paydown Yield Thoughts :- 1. The changes in company taxation have distorted what was once a perfectly good valuation meas...
by magneto
Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Equity Valuations "Too high"?
Replies: 16
Views: 1864

Re: Are Equity Valuations "Too high"?

Are (US and international) equities overpriced? Should I worry about possible interest rate hikes and it's negative effect on the bond portion of my future portfolio? Or shouldn't I be worrying about this at all? I'm 32, non US investor, target AA 20-25% bonds/75-80% equities, and have about $400k ...
by magneto
Sun May 31, 2015 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income
Replies: 58
Views: 5516

Re: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income

Have managed at last to get the link working, and this caught my eye :- “You have to train your brain to ignore the price movement. You want to focus on the income production and the growth of that income.” Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500’s dividends have grown an average 5.7% a year, somewh...
by magneto
Sun May 31, 2015 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income
Replies: 58
Views: 5516

Re: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income

A dividend is the portion of the company that the managers decided to liquidate and give to shareholders. That's it. So in essence, a dividend IS selling a portion of your assets. It's just the company managers who are doing it, not you. So who's to say that the amount that the managers thought the...
by magneto
Thu May 28, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 96
Views: 10052

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

I've read a lot on VG and here and know the philosophy, but we are really struggling with the market being so high right now. (Of course, that's what we were thinking when we cashed out in 2013!) Any ideas appreciated! Ed Monthly q data may be of interest :- http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshor...
by magneto
Wed May 27, 2015 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10540

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Trying to think of an analogy for volatility or risk. Suppose a tight-rope walker is crossing a chasm on an elastic rope. The elasticity of the rope may determine the volatility (rise and fall of the acrobat). The risk however could be the worst case fall scenario determined by the height of the rop...
by magneto
Sun May 24, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10540

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Interesting thread, esp the Warren Buffett quote and the thoughts from dbr. Have been continually uneasy about the risk = volatility definitions approach. Risk in this investor's book is downside risk, which is asymmetric. Volatility however is symmetric, with the upside maybe perhaps not truly risk...
by magneto
Sat May 23, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No bonds?? All Equity portfolio in 20s
Replies: 74
Views: 9163

Re: No bonds?? All Equity portfolio in 20s

Take a look at the following link :- http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation.php Would this same question be asked in 2009? Has anything changed? As noted above: whether non-equities are held as bonds or cash, in the event of a stock downturn, would the portfol...
by magneto
Fri May 22, 2015 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near
Replies: 54
Views: 7518

Re: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near

To say the 35 year bull market in stocks is ending now is nonsense. It didn't end when the S/P dropped to 800 in 2002 or 700 in 2009? I guess you could say we've been in a bull market since the Great Depression by that rationale. The fact is no one has any idea where the market will go in the futur...
by magneto
Mon May 18, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?
Replies: 50
Views: 5420

Re: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?

Had to check the date this thread started, as bond yields have been improving recently! For trend (momentum) followers bonds may, repeat may, have started the long awaited bear market, so now would not be a good time to buy. For value investors, every time bond prices fall the more interesting they ...
by magneto
Fri May 15, 2015 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"
Replies: 46
Views: 4534

Re: Vanguard's email "The case for a global portfolio"

To me the best argument for an increased International presence in the stock portion of the portfolios is that the United States has a shrinking share of the world stock market. If you want a truly global portfolio, your allocation to International Stocks should reflect that. One would suppose so, ...
by magneto
Mon May 11, 2015 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of consistent dividend growth
Replies: 18
Views: 1752

Re: Skeptical of consistent dividend growth

As retirees we do tilt very slighly to yield, adding to the portfolio for this purpose active closed end funds with very slightly above market(s) yield . These are in addition to our core trackers. Main purpose of this exercise is to provide a steady retirement income floor regardless of market(s) v...
by magneto
Thu May 07, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to buy bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 2361

Re: Bad time to buy bonds?

Many of the soothing words about the currrent bond bubble? look at total return, rather than the capital value and yield separately as we might with stocks. Ingesting the yield back into total capital over time, if the investor is taking the income out, might be misleading? In the UK one of the most...
by magneto
Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Manager consistently crushing the market [calculation error]
Replies: 27
Views: 3803

Re: Manager consistently crushing the market

The FTSE100 is in any event a curious collection of companies, unbalanced sectorially, not an ideal index to follow passively. The FTSE100 has been grim. It is up around only 38% since December 1997 compared to my mothers investment of 460% (after costs). Do you know what would be a good benchmark ...

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