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Re: What to do in a market correction

What, exactly, is a market correction? The traditional definition is a drop > 10% but <20% (which would be a "bear market"). The drop in 2011 was interesting because it was a "bear market" if you look at intraday prices but only a "correction" if you went by close pric...
by magician
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do in a market correction
Replies: 25
Views: 2280

Re: What to do in a market correction

What, exactly, is a market correction? The traditional definition is a drop > 10% but <20% (which would be a "bear market"). The drop in 2011 was interesting because it was a "bear market" if you look at intraday prices but only a "correction" if you went by close pric...
by magician
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do in a market correction
Replies: 25
Views: 2280

Re: What to do in a market correction

What, exactly, is a market correction?
by magician
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do in a market correction
Replies: 25
Views: 2280

Re: Momentum Investing ?

pkcrafter wrote:bs010101, you are right, of course, but some Bogleheads, perhaps the majority, won't chase anything. Furthermore, the opposite of momentum is reversion to the mean.

Paul

The problem with reversion to the mean is naïvely believing that you know what the mean is.
by magician
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 8
Views: 1163

Re: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?

You can access higher interest rates in other countries and avoid the risk of exchange controls through the currency futures markets, and you can now access the futures markets though Schwab (since it has acquired OptionsXpress). You would need to roll over the futures contracts 4 times a year. The...
by magician
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?
Replies: 44
Views: 3151

Re: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?

My reading of the academic research is that higher interest rate currencies tend to depreciate against lower rate ones, but by less than the interest rate differential. So it has been profitable to own higher rate currencies, but the profit has been less than the nominal rate spread. Hence: carry t...
by magician
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?
Replies: 44
Views: 3151

Re: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?

Duration is the first-derivative of the price versus yield curve. Not to put too fine a point on it, but (modified) duration is not the first derivative of the price with respect to the yield; dollar duration is the first derivative of price with respect to yield. I think you may be putting too fin...
by magician
Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?
Replies: 37
Views: 2224

Re: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?

acegolfer wrote:Image

What I hate about this graph is that at left end of it suggests that as the yield approaches zero (percent), the price goes to infinity, which is silly. But finance people always draw the graph like this.
by magician
Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?
Replies: 37
Views: 2224

Re: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?

Call_Me_Op wrote:Duration is the first-derivative of the price versus yield curve.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but (modified) duration is not the first derivative of the price with respect to the yield; dollar duration is the first derivative of price with respect to yield.
by magician
Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?
Replies: 37
Views: 2224

Re: Risk Adjusted Return?

2) If you nonetheless feel you must quantify, use a better measure of risk. There are numerous multi-factor models and models which tie returns to macro-economic factors. Some of the multi-factor models do a better job of explaining past returns than stdev (and it's friend, CAPM). The Fama-French t...
by magician
Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Adjusted Return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4375

Re: Risk Adjusted Return?

2) If you nonetheless feel you must quantify, use a better measure of risk. There are numerous multi-factor models and models which tie returns to macro-economic factors. Some of the multi-factor models do a better job of explaining past returns than stdev (and it's friend, CAPM). The Fama-French t...
by magician
Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Adjusted Return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4375

Re: Why is the market portfolio a tangency portfolio?

The tangency portfolio is called the market portfolio, but there is no reason to believe that it is the portfolio comprising all possible investments in proportion to their market weights. Quite a few people seem to think that it is, but nobody has ever produced a convincing argument (that I've seen...
by magician
Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market portfolio a tangency portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 1098

Re: Bond yield =/= guaranteed return

BackInTheBlack wrote:
acegolfer wrote:1. Can a T-bill be called a zero-coupon bond?

1) Since T-bills technically are zeroes . . . .

Why "technically"?
by magician
Tue Jul 01, 2014 5:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield =/= guaranteed return
Replies: 36
Views: 3290

Re: Bond yield =/= guaranteed return

Langkawi wrote:While T-Bills technically share the characteristics of zero-coupon bonds, I've never heard a knowledgeable person refer to them as such.

I've referred to T-Bills as zero-coupon bonds. Frequently.

Whether or not I qualify as a knowledgeable person is another question entirely, however.
by magician
Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yield =/= guaranteed return
Replies: 36
Views: 3290

Re: Options Trading: shooting down the "iron condor"

Beverage wrote:If you want to learn about options you should read Options As A Strategic Investment. But briefly:

- Options trading is a zero-sum game

Because of trading costs, options trading is a less-than-zero-sum game.
by magician
Mon May 05, 2014 12:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options Trading: shooting down the "iron condor"
Replies: 19
Views: 1952

Re: Callable bond duration

packer16 wrote:A useful metric is yield to worse as this is lowest return you will get (assuming the firm does not go BK) and your yield to maturity is highest yield.

Again, it isn't necessarily true that YTM will be higher than all of the YTCs. It usually is, but it needn't necessarily be.
by magician
Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Callable bond duration
Replies: 12
Views: 1892

Re: Callable bond duration

Duration is defined mathematically as the ratio of price change to interest-rate change (for mathematicians, it is the negative of the derivative of price with respect to interest rate). Actually, duration (specifically, effective duration) is defined mathematically as the ratio of the percentage p...
by magician
Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Callable bond duration
Replies: 12
Views: 1892

Re: Callable bond duration

If your bond looks it is going to be called (based upon coupon being higher than re-fi rate), they will trade at yield to worst. You need to look at the bond specifics but bonds typically have multiple call dates with higher prices for earlier dates (this provides some protection to the bond holder...
by magician
Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Callable bond duration
Replies: 12
Views: 1892

Re: Monte Carlo Software

I use Excel to run Monte Carlo simulations only about all the time. The software I prefer is @Risk by Palisade . You can download a trial copy here . I like @Risk for two primary reasons: ⋅ It's easy to learn ⋅ The functions work as if they were standard Excel functions
by magician
Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Software
Replies: 13
Views: 1391

Re: Harry Markowitz meets the Efficient Frontier - and blink

Don't read too much into that quote. When I interviewed Dr. Markowitz, I asked him about this story. He said that he had a choice of two investments: stocks and bonds. Thus, every combination of those two is on the minimum variance frontier, and all of those at or above the global minimum variance p...
by magician
Sun Jan 26, 2014 1:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Markowitz meets the Efficient Frontier - and blinks
Replies: 4
Views: 872

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

I don't believe preferred habitat is anywhere close to being as popular as the expectations theory. I don't know about its popularity, but it seems plausible. Insurance companies, for example (which are huge fixed income investors), like to match their assets and liabilities (maturity and duration,...
by magician
Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: BRK go to for weird risks - NCAA bracket bet

odds of picking every winner correctly in a 64-team bracket are less than 1 in 9 quintillion....with some basketball knowledge, that only improves to about 1 in 128 billion, he said in a video posted on YouTube Do you really need any basketball knowledge? Just pick based on the ranking of the teams...
by magician
Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK go to for weird risks - NCAA bracket bet
Replies: 16
Views: 1454

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

I don't believe preferred habitat is anywhere close to being as popular as the expectations theory. I don't know about its popularity, but it seems plausible. Insurance companies, for example (which are huge fixed income investors), like to match their assets and liabilities (maturity and duration,...
by magician
Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

magician: do those other theories predict flattening of the yield curve because of some other reason? The liquidity premium theory can explain a normal yield curve, but not a flat or inverted yield curve. It's basis is that . . . well . . . there's a liquidity premium: higher rates for less liquidi...
by magician
Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Riding the Yield Curve

Longer points on the curve predict the future of the shorter points, all the way down to the Fed overnight rates. You're citing the pure expectations theory of interest rates, which is only one theory which tries to explain the shape of the yield curve. Others include the liquidity premium theory a...
by magician
Wed Jan 22, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the Yield Curve
Replies: 52
Views: 3383

Re: Why can't an Index Fund beat the market?

Tracking error can be positive or negative in an index fund, aye. I think that you mean that the returns of the index fund can be above or below the returns of the index it tracks; i.e., the difference can be positive or negative. Tracking error is the standard deviation of those differences; it ca...
by magician
Sun Jan 12, 2014 1:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't an Index Fund beat the market?
Replies: 17
Views: 1762

Re: Vanguard GNMA/ShortTerm Inv Grade 50/50 mix

With GNMAs, the maturity/duration of the bond is determined by the borrower based on what is good for them. Borrowers are of course more likely to pay the bond off when rates go down and not do so if rates go up. Because this arrangement is unfavorable to the borrower lender/bondholder , GNMAs pay ...
by magician
Sun Jan 12, 2014 1:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard GNMA/ShortTerm Inv Grade 50/50 mix
Replies: 11
Views: 1486

Re: What is Coke stock beta?

Kelly wrote:Magician,

Many thanks for these very valuable posts. I think I may finally understand beta!

Kelly

My pleasure.
by magician
Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 709

Re: What is Coke stock beta?

That's not what it indicates: you're talking about prices; beta talks about returns. A beta of 0.25 indicates that when the index's return rose by 1%, Coke's return rose by ¼%. But if the market's return changed from +2% to +3% (an increase of 1%), the market rose, while if Coke's return changed fr...
by magician
Mon Jan 06, 2014 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 709

Re: What is Coke stock beta?

I'm having trouble understanding the Beta of Coke stock (KO). Morningstar reports a beta of 0.25 http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/ko/s?t=ko This can't mean KO is only 25% as volatile as the market? If it's not 25% as volatile as the market, what does 0.25 mean? As I pointed out, you're correct: ...
by magician
Mon Jan 06, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 709

Re: What is Coke stock beta?

A positive beta means the stock, on average, moved in the same direction as the market index. Let's be clear about this: a positive beta means that the stock's returns , on average, moved in the same direction as the market index's returns . Beta measures movement of returns , not movement of price...
by magician
Mon Jan 06, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 709

Re: Commodity trading advisors-fooling some people all the t

MassInvestor wrote:Commodities should only be for those who want to take physical delivery or must hedge against changes in prices for business reasons.

Somebody has to take the other side of those contracts. It's unlikely that you'll find those counterparties exclusively amongst hedgers.
by magician
Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodity trading advisors-fooling some people all the time
Replies: 14
Views: 1604

Re: 2013: a bad year for pimco

fundtalk wrote:. . . two of PIMCO's other star managers, Rob Arnott and Mohamed El-Erian.

I'm pretty sure that the people at Research Affiliates would be surprised to learn that Rob Arnott is a star manager at PIMCO.

(Those at PIMCO might be, as well.)
by magician
Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013: a bad year for pimco
Replies: 26
Views: 3166

Re: Expected Return of Gold

LH wrote:(edited to decrease brevity)

Is it too early to nominate this for post of the year?
by magician
Wed Jan 01, 2014 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Return of Gold
Replies: 44
Views: 3129

Re: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity

Of course one needs to take risk with bonds. If it's not credit risk, it's inflation risk, currency risk, call risk, etc. There is no investment that doesn't have some degree of risk. It's a matter of degree. Which is exactly my point. The platitude "take risk on the equity side, not on the fi...
by magician
Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity
Replies: 20
Views: 1201

Re: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity

You could decide to take risks on the fixed income side of the portfolio. But it doesn't seem like it would be risk worth taking when the equity returns SHOULD be higher in the long run. But shouldn't equity risks be higher as well? It just seems to me that never taking any risk in fixed income is ...
by magician
Wed Dec 11, 2013 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity
Replies: 20
Views: 1201

Re: Investment types that can lead to a loss greater than 10

unixunderground wrote:Could you guys please advise on a few kinds of investments (from any sector) that can lead to a loss greater than 100%?

One hundred percent of what, exactly?

One hundred percent of the value of the asset? Or 100% of the invested capital (equity)?
by magician
Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment types that can lead to a loss greater than 100%
Replies: 16
Views: 1649

Re: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity

Artsdoctor wrote:Any portion of your fixed income portion of the portfolio should be considered safe.

Why is that?
by magician
Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity
Replies: 20
Views: 1201

Re: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity

dbr wrote:It should also be noted that the nominal but not the real principal was returned.

As with most Treasuries.
by magician
Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds and holding to maturity
Replies: 20
Views: 1201

Re: Derivatives to hedge inflation? (swap, futures, etc)

The problem with derivatives is that some of these instruments get pretty complicated. The problem with complicated derivatives is that they get pretty complicated. Simple derivatives are . . . well . . . simple. A future (or forward) is nothing more complicated than an agreement to buy something i...
by magician
Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Derivatives to hedge inflation? (swap, futures, etc)
Replies: 9
Views: 856

Re: Brent Arends: you can beat the market with smart timing

Brent Arends: you can beat the market with smart lucky timing

Fixed that for him.
by magician
Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brent Arends: you can beat the market with smart timing
Replies: 89
Views: 5608

Re: Four-fund max?

Green: where's your avatar?
by magician
Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four-fund max?
Replies: 17
Views: 2393

Re: Currency Exchange? [getting US dollars from a Yen loan]

It sounds like you're looking for a straight USD/JPY currency swap. You pay dollars (for yen) at initiation, receive dollars (for yen) interest during the life of the swap, then receive dollars (for yen) for the return of the original dollars at the end of the swap.
by magician
Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Exchange? [getting US dollars from a Yen loan]
Replies: 1
Views: 117

Re: the importance of rebalancing

By "rebalancing", you're assuming a constant mix rebalancing strategy.

What about other rebalancing strategies; e.g., CPPI?
by magician
Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the importance of rebalancing
Replies: 12
Views: 1158

Re: Does foreign currency provide any type of diversificatio

umfundi wrote:Currency-hedged global bonds are a yawn.

Covered interest rate parity says that if you hedge you should earn the same return as you would on domestic bonds.

Yawn.
by magician
Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does foreign currency provide any type of diversification?
Replies: 21
Views: 1676

Re: Does foreign currency provide any type of diversificatio

Do stocks in a foreign currency or foreign currency itself provide any type of diversification in a portfolio? Interestingly, I just finished summarizing a reading on this very subject in the Level III CFA curriculum. Stocks and bonds denominated in foreign currencies can provide risk reducing dive...
by magician
Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does foreign currency provide any type of diversification?
Replies: 21
Views: 1676

Re: What is the current equity risk premium, and how calcula

4.3%

Pulling it out of . . . the air.

(That's what most people do; I'm one of the rare few willing to admit it.)
by magician
Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the current equity risk premium, and how calculated?
Replies: 31
Views: 1955

Re: Are municipical utility revenue bonds extremely safe?

If the revenue's not there, they don't pay.

General obligation bonds are much safer.
by magician
Fri Sep 13, 2013 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are municipical utility revenue bonds extremely safe?
Replies: 8
Views: 627

Re: How Much Did You Spend on Your Engagement Ring??

$600 for all three: her engagement and wedding rings, my wedding ring.

Thirty-four years ago.

I had the good sense to marry a woman who doesn't like diamonds; we got a custom design of a dove holding an olive branch: the leaves are jade.
by magician
Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Did You Spend on Your Engagement Ring??
Replies: 289
Views: 20145

Re: Bond fund duration and YTM question

Actually, it's nearly linear, but the slope is steeper the closer you get to maturity: you get more price change closer to the maturity date than farther from the maturity date, not less . Are you sure about this? I know it's locally linear (with the slope you'd expect: market yield - coupon ), but...
by magician
Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund duration and YTM question
Replies: 20
Views: 1390
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