Bogleheads.org

Are you crazy? Absolutely not. Have you done the right thing? Well again, nobody here knows the answer to that question with 100% certainty. Is this what "most Bogleheads" would have done? I would guess probably not. If you are going to try and time the market, getting out when you think i...

umfundi wrote:In the words of Monty Python, "This is silly".

Arithmetic artifacts do not create investment strategies.

Keith

Thank you, Keith.

Brad, When I wrote "here" referring to people badmouthing the newsletter, I meant the Boglehead board as a whole, not your threads. Sorry if that was confusing! No apology necessary! It was clear to me what you wrote, and I agree with it. I can feel your frustration as well...watching my ...

At the end of 30 year, I get $132*12*30 = $47,520 back. It is guaranteed 4.39% return by investing $759/year There is no guarantee you will still be alive after 30 years. If you aren't your return is −100% on that extra $759 per year. Ron I agree with Ron's assessment. You are correct that if you p...

Thanks for posting these each month! I find it nteresting that the newsletter portfolios outperform the 3 fund portfolio that is so heavily promoted here, some by a goid margin over a long time. When I searched for info on that newsletter here, I saw many negative posts. They don't seem deserved. I...

Every month I look at this (thank you madsinger!) and see how Coffeehouse is doing as I have a bond-heavy version of that, but I always ponder: "Why isn't everyone invested using the Hot Hands approach?" After 13 years of superior results can't one conclude that methodology has some merit...

Hello aida2003, (I'm so tempted to sign my posts Radames here...) It looks like you're getting a pretty good grasp on this stuff! You certainly do not need to report in 1 year increments. My monthly report ( April: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=115678 ) shows returns in th...

Another volatile, but ultimately positive month for the portfolios.

Int'l and REITs were up strong this month. Another dive for my precious metals fund (down -8.9%). Total Bond fund up almost 1% in a month.

Wishing you all well.
Brad.

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...

I will give my options --- whatever they're worth! 1. Is XIRR trustoworthy at all? Yes. XIRR is trustworthy. It has bugs, but for most people and their cases, you won't hit them. Enter only dates with non-zero numbers in them. I enter them chronologically, and have never had a problem worrying about...

For me, the main thing to remember about the XIRR function (and internal rate of return in general) is the fact that it is just "some number" that happens to satisfy the equation: SUM( (1+x)^investment_time * investment_amount ) = 0 for a series of deposits and withdrawals. You have to dec...

Great explanation, but don't you mean $310 instead of $350 as stated in your post? Or, do you have $350 at the end of the month? (1+x)^89 * $100 + (1+x)^58 * $100 + (1+x)^30 * $100 + (1+x)^0 * (-$350) = 0 (1+x)^89 * $100 + (1+x)^58 * $100 + (1+x)^30 * $100 = $350 d'oh!!!! Thank you for pointing thi...

Trusting XIRR It is known that the XIRR function in Excel has a couple of bugs (as this thread shows). However, you do not have to run away from it in fear. Most people treat it as a "black box of magic" and must accept the number on faith. It is not a black box, and what it does is not th...

Today I chose to rebalance a little. I tend to rebalance more often than most others (from what I can tell), but I like the "sell high, buy low" feeling it gives me, as well as keeps me on my allocation plan. I also find that this helps with the "stress" of both "up days&quo...

I'm glad they do for one reason: to get out of expensive Variable annuities from other companies. I worked with someone who was in very expensive annuities that they had bought years earlier. They were able to do a 1035 transfer from those expensive annuities (after the back-end loads had gone away)...

Strong Q1! (for US stocks...not so much for International stocks and bonds) All portfolios had positive month and quarter. The more a portfolio had US stocks, the better it did, and any allocation towards bonds or international brought down returns. madsinger portfolio up 6% for the quarter. Allocat...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...

runner9 wrote:

madsinger wrote:Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2013 returns, ......

With their February, 2013 returns....

d'oh!

Thanks for the catch...I've corrected the post. Not quite enough cut-and-paste-and-edit attention!

-Brad.

Mostly positive month, with a bunch of jumping around at the end. With the 10 year+ part of the chart now dropping off the year 2002, the Newsletter portfolios are showing very strong 10 year returns. I believe this is the first time in my posting of these charts that the Newsletter G portfolio has ...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...

, roughly 60/5/3/32 stock/REIT/PM/bond. What does PM mean? How do I generate similar reports for myself? I have vanguard and fidelity accounts and they only give me "your total YTD is 3.3%" PM is "precious metals", and more specifically, Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund ...

US stocks had a big month, up 5% to 7% for the month! International had a big range: Europe 5%, Pacific 3%, EM less than 1%. Bonds down a little. PM down over -3%. I rebalanced my portfolio right at the beginning of the month and moved my bond allocation up from 31% to 32% (which is less than 31% by...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2013 returns, 2013 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...

My 401-k plan uses Fidelity. Our plan charges us $30/year ($7.50/quarter). This is not a Fidelity fee, this is our 401-k plan fee. Every three months, the plan sells a small amount of my mutual fund shares to withdraw the $7.50. I suspect this is what is happening to the original poster (although, ...

My 401-k plan uses Fidelity. Our plan charges us $30/year ($7.50/quarter). This is not a Fidelity fee, this is our 401-k plan fee. Every three months, the plan sells a small amount of my mutual fund shares to withdraw the $7.50. I suspect this is what is happening to the original poster (although, i...

Wow! Cool chart, Bigfoot48!

My return was 11.59% with a 69/31 stock/bond portfolio.

-Brad.

Thank you for for your contributions to this thread! I like reading all of your posts. For those keeping track, I had made a small error in my XIRR calculations (I had entered 12/31/2013 instead of 12/31/2102 in my spreadsheet) which affected my return slightly (up to 11.59% from 11.51%) and the sub...

I admire you (original poster) for updating us. It's hard to outguess the market. However, if you had happened to get in one day earlier, you would have been up almost 2% for your actions. It's hard to know what to do. I will admit to a small bit of "market timing" here...I often rebalance...

I'm a little late to the "post your returns for 2012" game, but here is my monthly report. The charts show the 1, 3, 5, and 10 year returns. These have been "ka-chunked" up from last month, where the 3 year 11 month, 5 year 11 month, etc. returns were shown. This has shifted the ...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2010 (14 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, ...

A lot of volatility, but in the end, a rather tame month. madsinger lagged this month with losses in Value Index, REIT and precious metals and mining. Still, a 10%-ish return through 11 months is nothing to be too upset with. After "Sandy" at the end of October, I hope this past month has ...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...

Chart updated with Newsletter returns from Oct 2012. Thank you, investor, for the data.

-Brad.

Late report this month, for obvious reasons. I hope everyone who was affected by Sandy is getting their lives back in order. I lost power for 22 hours, but had no personal or property damage at all. My thoughts to out to all of you, and I my wish is that you all get back to comfortable and happy as ...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...

I live in the area, and I also have it. Bogleheads, unite!

(although, I must admit I was driving on 128 when the earthquake supposedly happened...I missed it entirely...)

-Brad.

Thank you for the newsletter returns, investor.

The chart has been updated.

-Brad.

Another pretty strong month for stocks.

madsinger portfolio was helped quite a bit by precious metals (up over 14% for the month), and dinged a little by REITs (down almost -2% for the month). Most other stock funds were up 2% to 4% for the month, and bonds were pretty flat.

Best wishes,
Brad.

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20,...

Another famous person seemed to like the Wellington/Wellesley combination: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-barack-obama-made-his-fortune.html ...in 2004...The other two were investments in funds with Vanguard, the investment management company... ....had investments in the Vanguard Wellington Fund...

A little late this month...I was out of town for the past week. Another positive month all around. The YTD leader is the S&P 500 index fund, and since 2009, it is second for all of the "portfolios" listed (if I have the liberty to call the S&P 500 index fund a portfolio). madsinger...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60...

Apparently, for the second Labor Day weekend in a row, I've been out of town for a week. I just got back last night, and will post the August report soon.

-Brad.

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...

thanks all, Brad I think you gave me what I was looking for. So to make sure -> these are pretax numbers, which would be affected by the tax rate. am I right? These are pre-tax. Since you had mentioned a 401-k, this seems appropriate. When withdrawing this money, the money will be taxed as income. ...

Here are some numbers, so you can get an idea of how the assumptions affect the outcome. $17,000 invested every year for 30 years. At the end of 30 years: 4% annualized return: $953,444 5% annualized return: $1,129,461 6% annualized return: $1,343,989 7% annualized return: $1,605,833 8% annualized r...

The chart has been updated. Thanks to the person who private messaged me the newsletter returns for June.

-Brad.

bilperk wrote:Why do the newsletter results have all xxx%?

The newsletter website has not updated their numbers for June yet. When they do, I'll update this chart!

-Brad.

June started off pretty badly, but ended well! US stocks up 4% to 6% for the month, and Internationals a little better than that. Vanguard precious metal fund end exactly where it began. This fund, although only 3% of my portfolio, has caused a -0.5% loss on my whole portfolio YTD. My bonds, all sho...

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...