Search found 767 matches

by madsinger
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 1856

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds I have some questions regarding several of the portfolios that appear in these monthly reports. ⋅ What is the source for the Newsletter G and Newsletter G-IND portfolios?   ⋅ What are their constituent asse...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 590

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2015)

No surprises here. All portfolios down for the month. Any diversification away from stocks helped minimize the damage. My permanent portfolio suffered less badly (only 25% stocks), but as of August, the only component of my permanent portfolio that is positive YTD is cash. Here's the data for PP: ST...
by madsinger
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 590

madsinger monthly report (August 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60...
by madsinger
Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)
Replies: 95
Views: 10150

Re: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)

Well...around the end of last month, I was getting near my rebalancing bands --- needed to sell some stocks, and buy some bonds and gold. This month has pretty much taken care of that rebalancing for me!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Aug 04, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 1856

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

Updated with newsletter numbers. I have been doing this report for about 10 years, and I believe this is the first report where the S&P 500 fund is leading the Hot Hands fund (comparing the 10 year/ 7 month returns). (in fact, leading in the 1,3,5 and 10 year returns...though not 16). There's no...
by madsinger
Mon Aug 03, 2015 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 1856

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

Kind of a spray in returns in July. Large US stocks up 1% to 2%, small US down -1% to -0.3%. Developed int'l up a bit, emerging (think Greece) down -6.8%. REITs up 5.6%, gold down -6.7% and Precious Metals stock fund down over -16%. My PP was flast last month, long bonds up over 4%, gold down over -...
by madsinger
Mon Aug 03, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 1856

madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 01, 2015 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1039

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)

investor wrote:thanks Brad.... where you get the numbers, the newsletter is not yet posted :-)

investor


I got them from the website:

http://adviseronline.investorplace.com/

lower right hand corner. I assumed that the newsletter always came out before the website was updated!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1039

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)

June was pretty much a negative all around. Not a single portfolio, nor even a fund within a portfolio was positive for the month - stocks and bond. Alas, not a lot of defense in the permanent portfolio either. -Brad. STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOLIO January -3.14% 9.37% 0.08% 8.37% 3.40% Februar...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1039

madsinger monthly report (June 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?
Replies: 50
Views: 5044

Re: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?

I have three friends in my area that sold their houses in the last two weeks. The first sold at "asking price" on the first day it was out. The second sold their house "at asking" even before it was officially listed. The third got two offers on the first day, and took, the highe...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2015)
Replies: 3
Views: 765

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2015)

Not so many "big movers" in May. For the year, International stocks and small caps are doing quite well. Bonds closer to zero (longer bonds negative, shorter positive) and REITs the only class down over -1% (at -1.8%). Monthly results for the madsinger permanent portfolio: STOCK LONG BOND ...
by madsinger
Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2015)
Replies: 3
Views: 765

madsinger monthly report (May 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Wed May 06, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1032

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

Hi Brad: I have trouble calling the Hot Hands timing strategy a "portfolio". It is one single fund and is therefore horribly undiversified as a "portfolio". For that reason, it isn't comparable to the other more diversified strategies that a sensible investor would use. I couldn...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1032

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

April had a wide variation in returns: US Large cap up about 1%, US small caps down -1.5%, International up over 5% with emerging markets up over 9%, REITs down almost -6%. Gold was mostly flat, but the PM fund was up over 9%. I don't know if this is noteworthy (but I guess I'll note it), the "...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1032

madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Fri May 01, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?
Replies: 65
Views: 7246

Re: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?

Me too. Running Firefox, and the font got weird this afternoon. I thought it was just me.
by madsinger
Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1898

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

What is the XIRR? XIRR is the Excel spreadsheet function for returning the "Internal Rate of Return". The internal rate of return is a somewhat theoretical number that answers the question "what single rate of return applied to a series and investments and withdrawals would result in ...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 28, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1898

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

I should have explained the chart columns: The seven columns are 1) date of purchase, 2) value of NASDAQ index, 3) investment amount, 4) number "shares of the NASDAQ" purchased, 5) cumulative number of shares purchased, 6) value of investment, 7) cumulative investment amount You can see th...
by madsinger
Sun Apr 26, 2015 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1898

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

It looks like we're converging to the result. Yes, 9.2% is the internal rate of return for investing the same amount each year on March 10 from 2000 to 2015. The numbers looks like this for those interested: 3/10/2000 5,048.62 $10,000.00 1.980739291 1.980739291 $10,000.00 $10,000.00 3/9/2001 2,052.7...
by madsinger
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1898

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

No reinvested dividends...just looking at the index value. (I don't know the current dividend yield for the NASDAQ, but I imagine it is not very big).

Nominal rate of return. Not "real" rate of return (i.e. not inflation adjusted).

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1898

XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

Now that the NASDAQ Index has finally surpassed the maximum value it reached over 15 years ago, I figured there would be lots of "the NASDAQ returned 0% over 15 years" in the upcoming years. So, I wondered, if you invested the same amount of money (e.g. $10,000) each year on March 10 (or t...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1524

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

What is "hot hands? The "Hot Hand" strategy is not a portfolio, but rather a single fund. The idea is that a fund that did well one year may exhibit good returns the next. The basic strategy is to rank all "diversified" Vanguard Mutual funds by one-year return, and to selec...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1524

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

Mixed month. Large US stocks down about -1.5%, small cap up about +1.2%. International in line with US Large. Bonds up for the month. In the "specials", REIT up +1.72%, precious metals and mining fund down -9.13%. My permanent portfolio sub-portfolio data: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOL...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1524

madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"
Replies: 13
Views: 1634

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"

Would anybody like to see a Vanguard Lifestrategy Aggressive that is 0% bonds? Maybe there is already something similar, but I would love to see this for custom mixing a portfolio at higher than 80% bonds. Isn't this pretty much the Total World Stock index fund? https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...
by madsinger
Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More XIRR Questions
Replies: 19
Views: 1690

Re: More XIRR Questions

OK, got it. So if the first date is, for example, 8/1/2014 and the last is 12/31/2014, it gives me the annualized returns and not the returns for the 8/14-12/14 period? Yes...it will be "annualized". To be precise, XIRR internally determines a DAILY rate of return (IDR). To print a number...
by madsinger
Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1417

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

feeling smug that I have my "permanent portfolio" on days when stocks get thrown for a loop.

S&P 500 down -1.41% today.

....and....

Long bonds down -2.14%

and gold... down -2.76%

d'oh!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1417

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

Stocks had a big positive month in February. Bonds and gold were down. The portfolios all behaved accordingly. The portions of the Permanent Portfolio all flipped from last month: STOCK BOND CASH GOLD Total January -3.14% 9.37% 0.08% 8.37% 3.40% February 5.68% -5.65% 0.08% -5.79% -1.43% YTD 2.23% 3....
by madsinger
Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1417

madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 02, 2015 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 778

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)

chart updated with Newsletter returns.
by madsinger
Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 778

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)

January was a down month for US stocks, ranging from -2% to -4% losses. Vanguard's international funds have a bit of an anomaly: The Total International fund was up 0.13%, but the three regional indexes, Europe, Pacific, Emerging, were up 0.39%, 1.85%, 0.67% respectively. REITs were up big again, up...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 778

madsinger monthly report (January 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1928

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Charts are updated with all portfolio information.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1928

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

livesoft wrote:Very cool that LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, Moderate Growth, and Growth all performed about the same for the year.


And when you go back a full 16 years, the G, MG, and CG annualized returns are: 5.20%, 5.31%, 5.12%!
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1928

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

For those who may be interested, my "permanent portfolio" has been interesting for me to watch. Here's the "raw" data: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PP April (16-30) 1.18% -0.12% 0.06% -1.03% 0.01% May 2.32% 2.82% 0.07% -3.04% 0.54% June 2.02% -0.23% 0.06% 6.27% 1.98% July -1.43% 0.6...
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1928

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

For December, large cap US was down a little, small caps up in the 1-2% range. Internationals got hit pretty hard down -2.5% to -5%. REITs were up almost 2%. For 2014, large US was the place to be: S&P 500 up about 13.5%. Small caps ranged from 5% to 10% as we move from Growth to Value. Internat...
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1928

madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, ...
by madsinger
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Favorite Cookbook?
Replies: 68
Views: 6471

Re: Your Favorite Cookbook?

If you have any interest in Vegan cooking, any book by Isa Chandra Moskowitz is a great place. I have all of her cookbooks, and like them. Her first "Vegan with e Vengeance" is probably my favorite. "Veganomicon" is an "all purpose" Vegan cookbook which is probably the ...
by madsinger
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time TLH harvester - help please
Replies: 13
Views: 631

Re: First time TLH harvester - help please

You do not want to make the Jan 12 purchase of VTIAX. Especially over the "year end"....it will complicate your taxes needlessly. I think the easiest thing to do is do just "turn off" your automatic investment. Once you have the funds where you want them, and 31 days has past, tu...
by madsinger
Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2416

Re: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index

There are some rather expensive index funds out there (like the 0.50% ER S&P 500 index fund in my 401-k plan) which cost more than many of Vanguard's actively managed funds, I can't imagine there are many (if any) actively managed funds that are cheaper than Vanguard's Total Stock Market fund wi...
by madsinger
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2014)
Replies: 10
Views: 1926

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2014)

US large caps continue to shine. Internationals were mixed Europe up over +2%, Pacific down about -2%, EM down -1%. REITs still soaring, up over +27% YTD. My madsinger Permanent Portfolio was looking good until gold dropped about -4% on the last day of the month. But...it was up +4% on the first day...
by madsinger
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2014)
Replies: 10
Views: 1926

madsinger monthly report (November 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1379

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)

moomoo: I have sent you a private message.
by madsinger
Tue Nov 04, 2014 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1379

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)

Halfway through the month, stocks were down quite a bit, and bonds and gold were up. All that changed in the final week. For the month, large cap US up +2% to +3%, small caps +4% to +5%. Internationals ranged from -2% to +2%. REITs up 10%. VGPMX (precious metals and mining) down about -14% for the s...
by madsinger
Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1379

madsinger monthly report (October 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...
by madsinger
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 43
Views: 5986

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

Ugh...sorry about that link above. But, go to:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... ture=en-US

and add in the VSMGX ticker symbol to compare the total returns.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 43
Views: 5986

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

Yikes! Make sure you use the internet properly! The person who compared Life Strategy Moderate Growth and Wellington posted a link to an NAV chart, not a total return chart. The claim the the "passive fund" beat the "active fund" in this case is false. Using a total return chart ...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 02, 2014 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)
Replies: 7
Views: 1184

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)

I've had a couple of people send me a message about my "math" of the previous post. As I look at it, it's somewhat incomplete. Here's a hopefully better explanation. When a fund makes a distribution, and it is reinvested in the fund that day, the result is "more shares" in your a...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 02, 2014 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)
Replies: 7
Views: 1184

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)

Thanks Brad. I have Wellington as 6.52% YTD from Morningstar... Whatever the fund continues to do well. Just like the energizer rabbit. investor hmmmm...I got the 6.48% YTD for Wellington off of Vanguard's website. I just re-checked now, and it still says 6.48%. I don't know why there's a discrepan...

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