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by madsinger
Wed May 06, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 869

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

Hi Brad: I have trouble calling the Hot Hands timing strategy a "portfolio". It is one single fund and is therefore horribly undiversified as a "portfolio". For that reason, it isn't comparable to the other more diversified strategies that a sensible investor would use. I couldn...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 869

Re: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

April had a wide variation in returns: US Large cap up about 1%, US small caps down -1.5%, International up over 5% with emerging markets up over 9%, REITs down almost -6%. Gold was mostly flat, but the PM fund was up over 9%. I don't know if this is noteworthy (but I guess I'll note it), the "...
by madsinger
Mon May 04, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (April 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 869

madsinger monthly report (April 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Fri May 01, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?
Replies: 65
Views: 4666

Re: Oh yuck, what just happened to the font?

Me too. Running Firefox, and the font got weird this afternoon. I thought it was just me.
by madsinger
Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1727

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

What is the XIRR? XIRR is the Excel spreadsheet function for returning the "Internal Rate of Return". The internal rate of return is a somewhat theoretical number that answers the question "what single rate of return applied to a series and investments and withdrawals would result in ...
by madsinger
Tue Apr 28, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1727

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

I should have explained the chart columns: The seven columns are 1) date of purchase, 2) value of NASDAQ index, 3) investment amount, 4) number "shares of the NASDAQ" purchased, 5) cumulative number of shares purchased, 6) value of investment, 7) cumulative investment amount You can see th...
by madsinger
Sun Apr 26, 2015 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1727

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

It looks like we're converging to the result. Yes, 9.2% is the internal rate of return for investing the same amount each year on March 10 from 2000 to 2015. The numbers looks like this for those interested: 3/10/2000 5,048.62 $10,000.00 1.980739291 1.980739291 $10,000.00 $10,000.00 3/9/2001 2,052.7...
by madsinger
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1727

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

No reinvested dividends...just looking at the index value. (I don't know the current dividend yield for the NASDAQ, but I imagine it is not very big).

Nominal rate of return. Not "real" rate of return (i.e. not inflation adjusted).

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1727

XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

Now that the NASDAQ Index has finally surpassed the maximum value it reached over 15 years ago, I figured there would be lots of "the NASDAQ returned 0% over 15 years" in the upcoming years. So, I wondered, if you invested the same amount of money (e.g. $10,000) each year on March 10 (or t...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1421

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

What is "hot hands? The "Hot Hand" strategy is not a portfolio, but rather a single fund. The idea is that a fund that did well one year may exhibit good returns the next. The basic strategy is to rank all "diversified" Vanguard Mutual funds by one-year return, and to selec...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1421

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

Mixed month. Large US stocks down about -1.5%, small cap up about +1.2%. International in line with US Large. Bonds up for the month. In the "specials", REIT up +1.72%, precious metals and mining fund down -9.13%. My permanent portfolio sub-portfolio data: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PORTFOL...
by madsinger
Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (March 2015)
Replies: 8
Views: 1421

madsinger monthly report (March 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/...
by madsinger
Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"
Replies: 13
Views: 1416

Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"

Would anybody like to see a Vanguard Lifestrategy Aggressive that is 0% bonds? Maybe there is already something similar, but I would love to see this for custom mixing a portfolio at higher than 80% bonds. Isn't this pretty much the Total World Stock index fund? https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...
by madsinger
Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More XIRR Questions
Replies: 19
Views: 1615

Re: More XIRR Questions

OK, got it. So if the first date is, for example, 8/1/2014 and the last is 12/31/2014, it gives me the annualized returns and not the returns for the 8/14-12/14 period? Yes...it will be "annualized". To be precise, XIRR internally determines a DAILY rate of return (IDR). To print a number...
by madsinger
Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1293

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

feeling smug that I have my "permanent portfolio" on days when stocks get thrown for a loop.

S&P 500 down -1.41% today.

....and....

Long bonds down -2.14%

and gold... down -2.76%

d'oh!

-Brad.
by madsinger
Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1293

Re: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

Stocks had a big positive month in February. Bonds and gold were down. The portfolios all behaved accordingly. The portions of the Permanent Portfolio all flipped from last month: STOCK BOND CASH GOLD Total January -3.14% 9.37% 0.08% 8.37% 3.40% February 5.68% -5.65% 0.08% -5.79% -1.43% YTD 2.23% 3....
by madsinger
Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (February 2015)
Replies: 6
Views: 1293

madsinger monthly report (February 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, ...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 02, 2015 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 711

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)

chart updated with Newsletter returns.
by madsinger
Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 711

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)

January was a down month for US stocks, ranging from -2% to -4% losses. Vanguard's international funds have a bit of an anomaly: The Total International fund was up 0.13%, but the three regional indexes, Europe, Pacific, Emerging, were up 0.39%, 1.85%, 0.67% respectively. REITs were up big again, up...
by madsinger
Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2015)
Replies: 4
Views: 711

madsinger monthly report (January 2015)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2015 returns, 2015 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...
by madsinger
Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1857

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Charts are updated with all portfolio information.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1857

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

livesoft wrote:Very cool that LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, Moderate Growth, and Growth all performed about the same for the year.


And when you go back a full 16 years, the G, MG, and CG annualized returns are: 5.20%, 5.31%, 5.12%!
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1857

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

For those who may be interested, my "permanent portfolio" has been interesting for me to watch. Here's the "raw" data: STOCK LONG BOND CASH GOLD PP April (16-30) 1.18% -0.12% 0.06% -1.03% 0.01% May 2.32% 2.82% 0.07% -3.04% 0.54% June 2.02% -0.23% 0.06% 6.27% 1.98% July -1.43% 0.6...
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1857

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

For December, large cap US was down a little, small caps up in the 1-2% range. Internationals got hit pretty hard down -2.5% to -5%. REITs were up almost 2%. For 2014, large US was the place to be: S&P 500 up about 13.5%. Small caps ranged from 5% to 10% as we move from Growth to Value. Internat...
by madsinger
Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2014)
Replies: 11
Views: 1857

madsinger monthly report (December 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2005, 2010 and 2012 (16 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, ...
by madsinger
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your Favorite Cookbook?
Replies: 68
Views: 6143

Re: Your Favorite Cookbook?

If you have any interest in Vegan cooking, any book by Isa Chandra Moskowitz is a great place. I have all of her cookbooks, and like them. Her first "Vegan with e Vengeance" is probably my favorite. "Veganomicon" is an "all purpose" Vegan cookbook which is probably the ...
by madsinger
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time TLH harvester - help please
Replies: 13
Views: 579

Re: First time TLH harvester - help please

You do not want to make the Jan 12 purchase of VTIAX. Especially over the "year end"....it will complicate your taxes needlessly. I think the easiest thing to do is do just "turn off" your automatic investment. Once you have the funds where you want them, and 31 days has past, tu...
by madsinger
Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2348

Re: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index

There are some rather expensive index funds out there (like the 0.50% ER S&P 500 index fund in my 401-k plan) which cost more than many of Vanguard's actively managed funds, I can't imagine there are many (if any) actively managed funds that are cheaper than Vanguard's Total Stock Market fund wi...
by madsinger
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2014)
Replies: 10
Views: 1891

Re: madsinger monthly report (November 2014)

US large caps continue to shine. Internationals were mixed Europe up over +2%, Pacific down about -2%, EM down -1%. REITs still soaring, up over +27% YTD. My madsinger Permanent Portfolio was looking good until gold dropped about -4% on the last day of the month. But...it was up +4% on the first day...
by madsinger
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (November 2014)
Replies: 10
Views: 1891

madsinger monthly report (November 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 11 months, 10 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/...
by madsinger
Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1339

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)

moomoo: I have sent you a private message.
by madsinger
Tue Nov 04, 2014 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1339

Re: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)

Halfway through the month, stocks were down quite a bit, and bonds and gold were up. All that changed in the final week. For the month, large cap US up +2% to +3%, small caps +4% to +5%. Internationals ranged from -2% to +2%. REITs up 10%. VGPMX (precious metals and mining) down about -14% for the s...
by madsinger
Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (October 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1339

madsinger monthly report (October 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/2...
by madsinger
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 43
Views: 5607

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

Ugh...sorry about that link above. But, go to:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... ture=en-US

and add in the VSMGX ticker symbol to compare the total returns.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 43
Views: 5607

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

Yikes! Make sure you use the internet properly! The person who compared Life Strategy Moderate Growth and Wellington posted a link to an NAV chart, not a total return chart. The claim the the "passive fund" beat the "active fund" in this case is false. Using a total return chart ...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 02, 2014 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)
Replies: 7
Views: 1135

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)

I've had a couple of people send me a message about my "math" of the previous post. As I look at it, it's somewhat incomplete. Here's a hopefully better explanation. When a fund makes a distribution, and it is reinvested in the fund that day, the result is "more shares" in your a...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 02, 2014 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)
Replies: 7
Views: 1135

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)

Thanks Brad. I have Wellington as 6.52% YTD from Morningstar... Whatever the fund continues to do well. Just like the energizer rabbit. investor hmmmm...I got the 6.48% YTD for Wellington off of Vanguard's website. I just re-checked now, and it still says 6.48%. I don't know why there's a discrepan...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)
Replies: 7
Views: 1135

Re: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)

Down month. Not many places to hide. US Large Cap had a relatively "normal" drop of -1.42% (S&P 500 fund). Small caps were down in the -5% to -6% range. Internationals were down -4% to -5% for "developed" countries, over -7% for emerging stocks. REITS down about -6%. Precious...
by madsinger
Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (September 2014)
Replies: 7
Views: 1135

madsinger monthly report (September 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20,...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2014)
Replies: 5
Views: 1189

Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2014)

Another strong month for the portfolios. US stocks up in the +3% to +5% range. Internationals had a spray +0.6% Europe, -0.2% Pacific, +4.3% Emerging Market. Total Bond up about 1%. My PP was fun to watch: +3.94% US stock, +4.24% US Long Bond, +0.08% Stable Value and +0.32% gold. Coming out to 2.20%...
by madsinger
Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (August 2014)
Replies: 5
Views: 1189

madsinger monthly report (August 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60...
by madsinger
Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2014)
Replies: 3
Views: 782

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2014)

The end of July took its toll on stocks. Portfolios down in the -1% to -2% range this month. US Large caps down about -1.4%, but small US stocks close to a -5% drop. REITs and Precious Metals stocks were basically unchanged. YTD, portfolios are up in the +4% to +6% range. I think most of us can feel...
by madsinger
Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2014)
Replies: 3
Views: 782

madsinger monthly report (July 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1242

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2014)

I may have missed this, but what's the composition of your Permanent Portfolio ? Hello LadyGeek, After reading and thinking about this for a couple of years, on April 16, I shifted a portion of my portfolio to a "Permanent Portfolio". For no particular reason, except that I have my own &q...
by madsinger
Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1242

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2014)

Another strong month for the portfolios.

This month I'm posting my monthly return of my permanent portfolio (up 1.98%) for comparison. Because I did not start this at the beginning of the year, I'm hesitant to post "what would have been" returns.

-Brad.
by madsinger
Tue Jul 01, 2014 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1242

madsinger monthly report (June 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/4...
by madsinger
Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Problem when calculating IRR two different ways
Replies: 2
Views: 335

Re: Problem when calculating IRR two different ways

But the next case below doesn't work. By using the NAVs I get 6.06% and by using the cash flows in Excel's XIRR I get 6.45%. The only meaningful difference I can see in these two examples is that in this second example the number of shares held increases. There perhaps is some sort of weighting tha...
by madsinger
Wed Jun 04, 2014 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor Return for VFINX and VTSMX?
Replies: 7
Views: 1285

Re: Investor Return for VFINX and VTSMX?

Pure guessing here...but I think a "S&P 500 index fund" is more common in 401-k plans than a "total market fund". (sigh...score another victory for marketing over substance...) That coupled with the "fact" (again...pure guessing here....) that 401-k plan investors a...
by madsinger
Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1004

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2014)

A pretty strong month for the portfolios. Total bond up about 1%, stocks in the 1% to 2% range. REITs are still outperforming, up 2.35% for the month and up over 16% for the year. Large US is outperforming small US for the year. Value ahead of growth. VGPMX (Precious Metals and Mining) was down for ...
by madsinger
Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2014)
Replies: 6
Views: 1004

madsinger monthly report (May 2014)

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2014 returns, 2014 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2011 (15 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40...

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