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Re: Good hobby for a bright/obsessive 9 year old?

- Minecraft (computer, not console). It's super-legos, and you can mod it if you are programming inclined. And everyone at school is playing it. - Take him to a good used book store. It's a good place to see what peaks his interest and he can get some good non-fiction books. I was about that age whe...
by longview
Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good hobby for a bright/obsessive 9 year old?
Replies: 73
Views: 2931

Re: Convince me I can make a dumb (car-related) purchase

Porsche 911. Hands down.

(Especially if you enjoy cornering and aren't looking for a couch that goes fast in a straight line.)

You should be able to get a good used one for 50kish. (service is more expensive than normal, so plan for that).
by longview
Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince me I can make a dumb (car-related) purchase
Replies: 56
Views: 4325

Re: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.

the illusion of influence and control is always soothing. :happy
by longview
Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] How I Feel When I Think about Investing, etc.
Replies: 36
Views: 2377

VWALX - 15.5 maturity vs 6.2 duration. Real sensitivity?

Short version: Which is the real sensitivity to interest rates, maturity or duration? Because this is the biggest spread I've ever seen. VWALX (Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares) has - Average stated maturity 15.5 years Average duration 6.2 years And, check the tooltips: Average Sta...
by longview
Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWALX - 15.5 maturity vs 6.2 duration. Real sensitivity?
Replies: 3
Views: 463

Re: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yours

Well, I can debunk buy and hold and prove market timing works in under 60 seconds. The obvious issue of small data set has been repeated and I'd agree. BUT, what I'd love to see: - Buy some highly leveraged options on margin and make a ton of money - Post some screenshots (with personal info remove...
by longview
Sat Aug 09, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yourself.
Replies: 59
Views: 4452

Re: Can you actually buy VG funds through Fidelty?? (odd err

livesoft wrote:Uh-oh, I own FSGDX.


Heh. Actually the lines look near-identical. ;) It's just that whole "no small caps" thing. Wish fidelity had a good small-caps international to go along with FSGDX.
by longview
Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you actually buy VG funds through Fidelty?? (odd error)
Replies: 15
Views: 968

Re: Can you actually buy VG funds through Fidelty?? (odd err

Thanks for the info guys. I'll respond to a few questions... Why not just move the money to VG? I have 3/4ths of my money at VG, I'm doing some custodian diversity here. I like having a chunk of net-worth in a separate entity with brick and mortar buildings. If for no other reason, if I'm making a m...
by longview
Fri Aug 08, 2014 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you actually buy VG funds through Fidelty?? (odd error)
Replies: 15
Views: 968

Can you actually buy VG funds through Fidelty?? (odd error)

I did some test trades on Fidelity, trying to buy some VWIUX and then some VTIAX. I was even willing to pay the $75. I got the following both times... The mutual fund you requested to trade is an Advisor Fund and is not available for retail trading. For more information, contact a Fidelity Represent...
by longview
Fri Aug 08, 2014 1:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you actually buy VG funds through Fidelty?? (odd error)
Replies: 15
Views: 968

Fidelity makes Advantage funds hard to find??

They don't seem to show up in the research section, and when I look at a fund with an advantaged class I can't find a link to it. ie, FIBIX (Spartan® Intermediate Treasury Bond Index Fund) has an advantage class -- but you wouldn't know it from looking the fund up on fidelity. I've wound up just doi...
by longview
Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity makes Advantage funds hard to find??
Replies: 5
Views: 485

Re: Current Relevance of Short Term Bonds - Bill Bernstein Q

Well, ok, the "sleep at night" part is right if it means to refer to the essence of the question, which is to control the risk of the portfolio. But the statement is associated as a dependent on buying stocks when they are cheap, which is not what helps you sleep at night.. It is a bit, f...
by longview
Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Relevance of Short Term Bonds - Bill Bernstein Q
Replies: 11
Views: 1226

Re: Is the first million really the hardest?

As others have said, yes by definition. I'll add the caveat that it's true if you avoid lifestyle inflation. There is many a doctor/small business seller/tech-stock-owner who made their first million and then some, and then increased lifestyle to the point where their number quickly became 10, 20, o...
by longview
Sat Jun 14, 2014 2:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the first million really the hardest?
Replies: 64
Views: 7850

Re: Your Company Ever Been "Spun-Off"? Any Stories/Suggestio

Watch for a (high priced) new HR head being hired. The mass layoff/re-org will start within a year.
by longview
Thu May 29, 2014 12:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Company Ever Been "Spun-Off"? Any Stories/Suggestions?
Replies: 23
Views: 1888

Re: Pursuing your calling in life at what cost?

kids, but there is a possibility. I am young enough to give it a shot for five years and if it doesn't work out, come back to work for another company. I pulled the two key pieces of information, imo. ;) If you have kids you will find, given your potential income level, that you really wish you had...
by longview
Wed May 28, 2014 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pursuing your calling in life at what cost?
Replies: 58
Views: 4645

Re: Is now a bad time to invest?

Be honest with yourself, if you are too gunshy to invest while the market is on a tear then you would definitely be too shy to invest when the market was in a massive tailspin. Strongly disagree with this logic. Obviously it depends on the person (especially if they've gone through a major downturn...
by longview
Fri May 23, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a bad time to invest?
Replies: 100
Views: 9972

Re: Is now a bad time to invest?

Or, he could have invested in 1997 and had a lost decade. http://i57.tinypic.com/2dl14w0.png Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, which means the market can do anything -- good or bad. (...Ignoring that if you follow until the end you are up...) If you had an AA and rebalanced then y...
by longview
Thu May 22, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a bad time to invest?
Replies: 100
Views: 9972

Re: Is now a bad time to invest?

- You could have invested a million the week before the 2008 crash, let it ride, and have gotten all your losses back and much more since then. - You could have invested a million the week after the crash and be in really great shape. - As livesoft says, bonds have been doing great. Be honest with y...
by longview
Thu May 22, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a bad time to invest?
Replies: 100
Views: 9972

Re: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?

Really? Have you considered that long-term deflation can destroy a country's economy? In a serious deflationary period, people and businesses are incentivized to hold cash (as it may return more than any other asset class). Real interest rates go way up. Businesses are unlikely to want to borrow/ex...
by longview
Sun May 18, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?
Replies: 40
Views: 5740

Re: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?

+1 Diversify. Additionally, I'd take long term deflation over a bull market any day. Make cash and bonds worth something.
by longview
Fri May 16, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?
Replies: 40
Views: 5740

Re: David Swensen's Book Unconventional Success

As for reasons, I did research when I was interested and found that (once upon a time) the insider trading rules didn't apply to bonds. So, if you had insider knowledge like someone doing some corporate deal, you could invest heavily in the corporate bonds and not the stocks and legally make a bunch...
by longview
Fri May 16, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen's Book Unconventional Success
Replies: 34
Views: 3881

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

While what you state is accurate and helpful in the case of a direct hack attack against your home/work network, it does nothing to protect you from a phish/spearphish or if you visit compromised website/watering hole. Once malware is installed on an internal host (through an email attachment, comp...
by longview
Fri May 16, 2014 6:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4789

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

jackpullo997 wrote:Which credit cards offer this??


My BoA Visa does it.
by longview
Tue May 13, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4789

Re: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?

As to banking security, I'm increasingly a fan of SMS/text messages for customizable alerts (I really wish Vanguard had this). A check over a certain amount, get a text, an on-line charge, get a text, etc. I was in a hotel abroad, paid the bill with my CC, and immediately my phone buzzed telling me ...
by longview
Thu May 08, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer security -- a paradigm shift?
Replies: 51
Views: 4789

What is "Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Portfolio"

The Vanguard 529 has a TIPS option, called "Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Portfolio". It doesn't appear to be the TIPS fund. There is no ticker. The "Price as of 04/29/2014" is "$17.12" which is different from the fund. Anyone have any ideas on this? (I'm actu...
by longview
Wed Apr 30, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is "Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Portfolio"
Replies: 4
Views: 569

Re: If a corp is correctly valued, are stock options worth a

Since I didn't see it above, One of the "points" of stock options is that they are, to you, leveraged. ie, you might get $1, or you might get offered $1.10 in restricted stock, or you might get offered $5 in stock options. The stock options are always valued by some multiple -- such that w...
by longview
Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If a corp is correctly valued, are stock options worth any?
Replies: 17
Views: 1214

Re: Why is the price so low for option? Is this real?

Former options floor market maker and long time options trader and teacher here. Now 7 years retired. There will never, I repeat, never, be a time where you can sit in front of a computer and pull a fast one on traders in the options world due to what you perceive to be a no-brainer price discrepan...
by longview
Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the price so low for option? Is this real?
Replies: 21
Views: 1478

Re: Good scotch recommendations, where to buy

Just because it wasn't mentioned, try Glenmorangie. In my part of the world Glenmorangie 18 runs less than a Macallen (any year)... and it's very nice (I like it better than Macallen). A $100 Glenmorangie 18 bottle, for the first pour -- then you can have some Laphroaig 10 or Glenmorangie 15/10 and ...
by longview
Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good scotch recommendations, where to buy
Replies: 55
Views: 9594

Re: Thinking about retiring early - tell me what I've missed

Do I want to spend 13%/5 years of my remaining time (the best years, too) chasing dollars that aren't going to buy me much more than I have now? Keep in mind that I save more than 50% of my income and most of that is spent on my family. I have very low personal monetary requirements so all that ext...
by longview
Thu Apr 24, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about retiring early - tell me what I've missed
Replies: 42
Views: 5893

Re: Looking at top 1% for actionable insight

(Offering up "insights" from the 1%, hope they're helpful...) - Own. The money goes to the owners. Entrepreneurs, farmers, partnerships, etc -- all have that in common. When the final decision comes down, and the pie is split, the owners decide. -- When things are sold, and capital gains a...
by longview
Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking at top 1% for actionable insight
Replies: 73
Views: 9153

Re: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?

It's funny, I came to post that same quote, but a different part that I think sums him up better... "... that’s the trade.” Taleb also recommends betting on hyperinflation using options to buy gold and silver and sell Treasuries. “You have a very small probability of making money ,” he said. “B...
by longview
Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?
Replies: 34
Views: 3698

Re: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?

Here is Taleb's investment advice given at a conference in 2013. The 20% zero-risk, 80% high-risk portfolio: Noting that advisors will find this principal the most applicable to their field, Taleb detailed his strategy for robust portfolio construction. Rather than selecting an array of medium-risk...
by longview
Sun Apr 06, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?
Replies: 34
Views: 3698

Re: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Q

...Investors would panic buy, driving up the price... I think we're agreeing. Inflation spikes - real rates go down - prices go up. That's the lead wave. Then real rates go up (to combat inflation, theoretically), and prices drop for a bit. Then reversion to the mean. I'm not sure I agree with that...
by longview
Sun Apr 06, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?

A little defense of Taleb, or at least explanation as I understand it... - The main rejection, or reality he is trying to avoid, is that in stock market investing you are putting all the money at risk in order to get a small expected return. It's not roulette, where you might lose everything and you...
by longview
Sun Apr 06, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?
Replies: 34
Views: 3698

Re: How are you preparing for the coming bear market

60% fixed income here, should let me rebalance into the bear market.

30% Equities foreign, so they've been on sale a bit during this bull market -- maybe they'll bull while the other bears.

Some real estate (out of equities), hopefully less correlated when the bear hits.
by longview
Sun Apr 06, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you preparing for the coming bear market
Replies: 104
Views: 8649

Re: Liability Matching Portfoloio

I wrote "Ages of the Investor" as a way to think about the retirement investing process, not as a normative prescription. Bobcat's posts on the subject, and the links he provides, are also quite helpful. In a perfect world, the TIPS yield curve is positive at all maturites, which are avai...
by longview
Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Liability Matching Portfoloio
Replies: 36
Views: 3286

Re: Help me understand

My question is why have we had all these posts and several threads about one of these two economic best sellers and yet this is the first post to even mention the second book, which appears to be by far the more important of the two books? Perhaps because the Piketty book makes a certain political ...
by longview
Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys"
Replies: 174
Views: 29386

Re: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Q

What I struggle with is if there is runaway inflation, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to combat it. An increase in real interest rates will send the Intermediate Term TIPS fund NAV lower due to the high duration of 8.5+-. Would this not offset the increase in income due to the inflat...
by longview
Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Q

Does that help? PJW It does, thankyou. My final specific question is how much do you fall behind inflation if you use the TIPS fund distribution to pay the taxes? Is it as simple as inflation_adjustment * tax_rate is how much you fall behind? Or is it some more complicated math? Assume compounding ...
by longview
Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Q

(haven't read responses yet... wanted to share some outside reading from Vanguard...) From "interview with John Hollyer of Vanguard" (http://mutualfunds.about.com/od/managingyourportfolio/a/interview_with_vanguard_tips.htm) Bolding mine. What are the advantages of investing in TIPS mutual ...
by longview
Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Q

Here's the wiki article: Treasury Inflation Protected Security (Tax considerations) I'm not sure that this discussion would fit into the wiki article (as the title implies). If it does, please post what should be updated. That WIKI article is very helpful... it's just that the WIKI doesn't have muc...
by longview
Thu Apr 03, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Q

Thanks for the feedback. Regarding just not worrying about it... I feel the need to understand it since TIPS funds are relatively new, and I took the time to understand all the (mis)information on bond funds and how they won't be sent into a downward spiral... but I'm not exactly sure how TIPS funds...
by longview
Thu Apr 03, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Q

And one more TIPS fund tax related question...

When you sell fund shares when there has been NAV appreciation, is that capital gains rate or marginal rate?


Thanks.
by longview
Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

Thanks for the article. :happy
by longview
Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 14575

Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...

(I've read through the WIKI and the threads I could find, here is what I think I read and would love expansion and/or correction. Best forum ever.) From the Wiki: (Question - how does VG accomplish this?) (...after talking about phantom income on individual TIPS in taxable...) If you hold TIPS throu...
by longview
Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki expansion of TIPS funds and holding in taxable... Qs...
Replies: 26
Views: 1147

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

2. You can buy an SPIA which will pay you $7,000 per year for life, no matter how long you live. With 1., the risk you will run out of money in less than 20 or 25 years is very real. Maybe 20%. With 2., you will never run out of income, no matter how long you live. Yes, there is a tiny risk your in...
by longview
Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 14575

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

I agree with the logic of taking your absolute minimum retirement needs and locking it in to safety. Unfortunately: - SPIAs have company risk, correct? You are putting all your risk into an insurance company... and in the worst case scenario where bonds and stocks have massively fallen I don't feel ...
by longview
Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 14575

Re: Wisdom on Rebalancing/Selling-Winners from mostly taxabl

Thanks for the replies. I would restate that sentiment as "if you have enough then AA doesn't matter anymore." But the whole idea of AA (or at least a big part of it) is to force you to buy low and sell high, rather than to let massive volatility enter your portfolio over time. For the sak...
by longview
Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom on Rebalancing/Selling-Winners from mostly taxable??
Replies: 8
Views: 465

Wisdom on Rebalancing/Selling-Winners from mostly taxable??

(I did a lot of googling and searching and couldn't find info on this topic, other than reinvest with new money which is a different situation). The Situation: For simplicity, say you're 50/50 with 3 mil/3mil in bonds and equity. You're feeling good and your new money is nowhere near that level. Equ...
by longview
Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom on Rebalancing/Selling-Winners from mostly taxable??
Replies: 8
Views: 465

Re: $10+ M, age 49, seeking wisdom regarding retirement

FIREd here. I was also worried about the "role model" aspect. One thing I'll add to the previous comments, is that this is part of my job now. Reading finance books, occasionally going through forums, checking up on things... when I'm in my office working on finance stuff I'm "working...
by longview
Sat Feb 08, 2014 2:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $10+ M, age 49, seeking wisdom regarding retirement
Replies: 58
Views: 8136

Re: Tax Exempt or Taxable; Am I Foolish?

Check out BMBIX... lots of prerefunded munis (50%+). So the security of treasuries... the tax benefit of munis... and a return that reflects the risk (but the tax benefit helps it).

(I have both muni funds and BMBIX)
by longview
Sat Feb 08, 2014 1:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Exempt or Taxable; Am I Foolish?
Replies: 16
Views: 2109
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