Search found 914 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Total Bond: 23 years of SEC yield and distribution yield

stlutz: +1 - .25 I agree about the usefulness of SEC yield as a measure to compare bond funds. As for forecasting future returns, the problem of distribution yield, even given the right circumstances, is the impact of yield curve changes on the NAV of the fund. So, we can't expect this prediction to...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond: 23 years of SEC yield and distribution yield
Replies: 39
Views: 3600

Re: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocat

Here'sa copy of my take on this subject posted on the FWF forum: http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=117991&p=544558#p544558 I personally think that many authors and financial advisors put way too much emphasis on asset allocation (AA), so much that a new investor ...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki comments requested: The importance of asset allocation
Replies: 91
Views: 3036

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Longinvest or any others, Do you download the latest version when it becomes available ? I have been doing that but am beginning to think that some versions may not have any significant changes. Hexdump, if the "Changes" section of the new version announcement message didn't contain somet...
by longinvest
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Grayfox, I did not say that the return will be greater than YTM; all I said is that YTM is not its expected return. There are two components to the yearly return of the ladder. There's a speculative return; the difference in the marked-to-market value of the ladder due changes in the yield curve. Th...
by longinvest
Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 139
Views: 6762

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I have uploaded a new version of the VPW spreadsheet (January 28, 2015). As usual, you can find the download links on the wiki:Variable percentage withdrawal page. Changes: ⋅ Added 2014 data extracted from: ⋅  wiki:Simba's backtesting spreadsheet for U.S. data. ⋅ Libra ...
by longinvest
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Some Bogleheads like to describe a bond fund as analogous to a CD ladder. If it was like CD ladder, VFITX would hold bonds in about equal percentages from 10 down to 0 years. And the expected return might be the YTM or SEC Yield. So the CD ladder is a poor model for VFITX. The bond fund managers ar...
by longinvest
Wed Jan 28, 2015 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 139
Views: 6762

Re: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?

Can someone come up with something where he said to do a 3 fund portfolio? From https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=156591: Jack Bogle, "The beauty of owning the market is that you eliminate individual stock risk, you eliminate market sector risk, and you eliminate manage...
by longinvest
Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?
Replies: 22
Views: 3404

Re: What about this withdrawl strategy?

So, I have gone through the VPW methodology. While I can see that there are major advantages, I think that there are also some negatives from my point of view, the principal problem being that I would like to leave a substantial bequest for my heirs, without having to die early in order to do so. D...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What about this withdrawl strategy?
Replies: 23
Views: 2077

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

I thought there were only 10 Principles of the Bogleheads investment philosophy. Your poll shows many other choices and some very important choices are actually excluded. Gosh, I dislike these poll thingies. 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 66
Views: 3534

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

As you and I discussed by PM, it wouldn't be hard to extend VPW (or define a VPW derivative) that would use the "final value" term of the PMT formula to do exactly what they suggest, instead of hard-wiring it to zero. Makes a ton of sense to me... Siamond, Yes, this is right: it does make...
by longinvest
Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Alan S. wrote:Not to be outdone, enter the "PERFECT WITHDRAWAL" - for nerds only:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=2551370

Alan, I do not see how this paper relates to a variable withdrawal method. I would recommend to start a new thread to discuss it.
by longinvest
Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Does Damodaran implicitly assume a flat yield curve in his total return calculations, or does he take into account the historical shape of the yield curve? Good question. I think the answer is flat yield curve, since it's the 5-year rates that are used in the price change part of the return calcula...
by longinvest
Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 139
Views: 6762

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Related thread that explains where bond fund returns come from:

How can Bond Funds perform better than yield
by longinvest
Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 139
Views: 6762

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Thanks for the spreadsheet. I am a novice with excel. Would you kindly share with me how I extend the dates into 2015 and beyond. For exmaple, as I am just starting my start year is 2014 and my start month is 12. Once I enter that onto the data sheet I cant seem to figure out how to add the subsequ...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: An Excellent Article about 4% Withdrawal Rule

Here's a link to the wiki:Withdrawal methods page that summarizes the various strategies (advantages and disadvantages).
by longinvest
Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: An Excellent Article about 4% Withdrawal Rule
Replies: 10
Views: 3264

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

I have used your spreadsheet on a Mac with Excel. It is fantastic, exactly what I was looking for! Can't thank you enough for all the effort. What I was unable to do is paste a set of values into the sheet; I have to enter the dollar amount manually, but it does work. If I use the Dropbox version, ...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

4% is a planning number. I don't know anyone that retired ever took a Fixed inflation Adjusted withdrawal and stuck with it. With that said, why not actually employ a WR that can be followed and is much safer than a 2,3 or 4% WR? See VPW for something that you can follow. A plan that will probably ...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10672

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I have uploaded a new version of the VPW spreadsheet (January 10, 2015).

As usual, you can find the download links on the wiki:Variable percentage withdrawal page.

Changes:
  • Added Social Security and Pension to backtesting.

Enjoy!
by longinvest
Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Been playing around with this spreadsheet, very happy with its simplicity. Weird thing is the investor return (14.64%) is WAY different than a XIRR return I calculated in another spreadsheet (7.03%). I must have messed up the XIRR return somehow, maybe included dividends as a contribution or someth...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: Bonds had a pretty good year in 2014?

One year ago, I adopted a Boglehead asset allocation (AA); I added bonds to my portfolio. I really had to hold my nose to sell some of my stock ETFs to buy VAB (Vanguard Canada's aggregate bond index ETF). At the time, it had an effective YTM of 2.72% and an average duration of 7.0 years! I was surp...
by longinvest
Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds had a pretty good year in 2014?
Replies: 11
Views: 1659

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

crg11 wrote:I haven't tried the newest version in Numbers, but the initial 1.0 version worked perfectly.

Thanks for the report!
by longinvest
Wed Jan 07, 2015 11:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Alright, I am fine with no cumulative return. Thanks for the formula. But I am an amateur and don't know what that means. Can you explain how to use it? Thank you for all your help. Here's how to transform an annualized 4.7% return into a 5 year 2 months cumulative return: ⋅  Divide the m...
by longinvest
Wed Jan 07, 2015 11:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Mcguireb1 and SailingAway, thanks for the suggestions. Feature requests: ⋅  Multiple-account handling. ⋅  Historical annual returns. Mcguireb1, I'm not sure I understand your other request. Using the annualized compound return, I would simply use my calculator to compute ((1+retu...
by longinvest
Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Thanks for the nice spreadsheet. I found it today and I am trying it. So far it looks like it will do what I want it to. I have entered data from 2008 to current. On the Calculations page it only shows calculations to Nov 09. Any way to get it to calculate out to the current date? This would happen...
by longinvest
Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

Nisiprius,

Thanks. I think that this is the paper William J. Bernstein referred to: https://web.stanford.edu/class/msande34 ... Sharpe.pdf

longinvest
by longinvest
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16580

Re: SEC Yield, YTM, Distribution Yield, Current Yield

The Portfolio Review Department states that the figures which you had questions about are correct. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund invests in Swap agreements. A Swap, traditionally, is an exchange of one security for another to change the maturities of a bond portfolio or the quality of issue...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Yield, YTM, Distribution Yield, Current Yield
Replies: 104
Views: 13890

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

What I would find disturbing, though, is that you could so easily lower an arithmetic expected return of 25% down to 0% simply by compounding your investment. That's quite a huge volatility drag!
by longinvest
Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16580

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

If the expected return of two assets is identical but with different volatility, wasn't there some proof about a mixed portfolio getting a rebalancing bonus? Assuming that flipping n times has a 0 expected return and holding cash also has a 0 expected return, it wouldn't disturb me if rebal...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16580

Re: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?

What I was asking — and what I didn't see explicitly stated in the wiki — is why there could be significant differences between what you call the "Portfolio Return" and the simple weighted average of the returns of the individual components of the portfolio. Though it might seem simple to...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?
Replies: 144
Views: 14199

Re: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?

<snip> Finally, and most importantly, I would not change my AA due to its 2014 performance ; that would be performance chasing, and it has been proven to be the worst thing I could do. Yes, yes, YES! Thanks for posting this longinvest ! <snip> I was ruminating on the poor performance of my own port...
by longinvest
Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?
Replies: 144
Views: 14199

Re: Is "stay the course" a commandment or a suggestion?

I would say that it means: Create an asset allocation that includes bonds to reduce the volatility caused by the stock part of your portfolio, then rebalance when needed. This balanced approach will help you to stay the course. Once you set up a Boglehead portfolio, the only real course correction n...
by longinvest
Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is "stay the course" a commandment or a suggestion?
Replies: 60
Views: 4087

Re: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?

Can someone tell me why my return was so low this year? Return: 4.76% XIRR. This puts me in the bottom 11% of Bogleheads apparently. My portfolio is the 4-Fund Ultimate Buy and Hold : 19% Total Stock Market (VTSAX) 19% Small-Cap Value (VSIAX) 19% FTSE All World (VFWSX) 19% FTSE All World Small-Cap ...
by longinvest
Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?
Replies: 144
Views: 14199

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Dumb question. Anyone know if this is compatable with iMac's Excel equivalent, Numbers? Cosmo It is definitely not a dumb question! Unfortunately, I do not have an iMac to try it. Would you be willing to download the spreadsheet and open it with Numbers, and tell us if the "Returns" and &...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

I have just uploaded a new version (1.5) of the Bogleheads returns spreadsheet. As usual, you'll find the download links on the wiki:Calculating personal returns page. Changes: ⋅  Improved chart layout. ⋅  Added "Annual compound return" indications where appropriate. En...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Having users go and unlock the page (for edition) and play with advanced chart options does not seem very user-friendly to me. Could I change the default chart configuration so that we get good-enough display under both LibreOffice and Microsoft Excel? Would setting the X axis format to MMM-YY work...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Having users go and unlock the page (for edition) and play with advanced chart options does not seem very user-friendly to me. Could I change the default chart configuration so that we get good-enough display under both LibreOffice and Microsoft Excel? Would setting the X axis format to MMM-YY work?
by longinvest
Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

I have just uploaded a new version (1.3) of the Bogleheads returns spreadsheet.

You'll find the download links on the Wiki page: wiki:Calculating personal returns.

Changes:
  • Added 1 month and 3 months returns.

Enjoy!
by longinvest
Sat Jan 03, 2015 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 75
Views: 10248

Re: Poll: How long have you been with your current AA?

I changed my asset allocation a little over one year ago due to having acquired new knowledge (I used to know nothing about bonds and bond funds, so I didn't invest in them). I waited for a period of almost 6 months before making the change, just to make sure it wasn't due to an emotional reaction. ...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: How long have you been with your current AA?
Replies: 44
Views: 2478

Re: Why do you look at past performance?

Most BHs believe that past performance doesn't predict future performance. But I bet BHs look at the past performance. What do you learn from looking at the history? How does it affect your investment decisions? Or am I wrong and you do not ever look at past performance? Looking at the past perform...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you look at past performance of stocks/funds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2384

Re: Determining Personal Performance in Vanguard (/general)

I use the wiki:Calculating personal returns spreadsheet and automatically get: a) my personal investor return, b) my portfolio returns (YTD, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, etc.) that I can compare to fund and index returns, and c) a personal growth-of-$10,000 chart. It is very simple to fill with persona...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining Personal Performance in Vanguard (/general)
Replies: 9
Views: 457

Re: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?

Using the wiki:Calculating personal returns spreadsheet:

PORTFOLIO RETURN (time-weighted returns, comparable returns)

Portfolio return as of 12-31-2014
YTD 8.92%
by longinvest
Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?
Replies: 144
Views: 14199

Re: What are you up YTD?

Using the wiki:Calculating personal returns spreadsheet:

PORTFOLIO RETURN (time-weighted returns, comparable returns)

Portfolio return as of 12-31-2014
YTD 8.92%
by longinvest
Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 271
Views: 30091

Re: Modified Dietz method to measure investment performance

There's a very simple-to-use spreadsheet to calculate both time-weighted and money-weighted returns in our Wiki:
wiki:Calculating personal returns
by longinvest
Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modified Dietz (but not TWR, IRR) to measure performance
Replies: 6
Views: 711

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

Deviating from the total market by concentrating a portfolio in parts of the market (small, value, momentum, etc.) could deliver better or worse returns than the market. The fundamental reality remains that, as a group, all investors are indexers. The overall market cannot beat itself! So if one be...
by longinvest
Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 7600

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

I just happen to know that costs matter and that gross returns in the financial markets minus the costs of financial intermediation equal the net returns actually delivered to investors . See: http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20060101.htm and http://www.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active....
by longinvest
Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 7600

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I have uploaded a new version of the VPW spreadsheet (December 31, 2014). I was informed through a private message that I introduced a small presentation error for the Bonds allocation on the Backtesting sheet in yesterday's version. It's a side effect of my playing with sliders. I am sorry for any ...
by longinvest
Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

longinvest: I have duplicated your problem and tried a workaround using the combo-box control, which will allow you to select from a list -or- enter your own value. Both the slider and combo-box work fine in LibreOffice, but the behaviour changes (breaks) when saving as XLS format. In the XLS forma...
by longinvest
Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

Podcast is worth a listen, IMO. Merriman again puts all of his cards on the table. He is basing his opinions on 90 years of data. Only 90 years? A woman that starts investing in her 20s and lives to 105 has an 80-year investment horizon. So, he doesn't even have two independent samples to analyze! ...
by longinvest
Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 7600

Re: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!

Podcast is worth a listen, IMO. Merriman again puts all of his cards on the table. He is basing his opinions on 90 years of data. Only 90 years? A woman that starts investing in her 20s and lives to 105 has an 80-year investment horizon. So, he doesn't even have two independent samples to analyze! ...
by longinvest
Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman takes John Bogles $5.00 Bet!
Replies: 61
Views: 7600

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

LadyGeek: I tried to add sliders for setting the asset allocation, but the "scroll value max" setting would reset to 0 after saving to XLS format (as I always do) and reloading. Do you know of a workaround?
by longinvest
Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 533
Views: 144323
Next

Return to advanced search