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Re: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?

I now have a line on my spreadsheet that shows what our investments would be worth if stocks drop 50%. Or should I say when. I need to be comfortable with that number; and I am. I really like your idea! It's one thing to think in the abstract that stocks could drop 50%; it's another to constantly t...
by longinvest
Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?
Replies: 61
Views: 2788

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?

Personally, I'm not a fan of VPW since a few years of fixed amount high withdrawals and a spiking inflation rate with a declining market will have you eating Alpo under the bridge. midareff, Are you talking about the Bogleheads Wiki's Variable percentage withdrawal ? If yes, what parameters did you...
by longinvest
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?
Replies: 33
Views: 3243

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?

I took some time studying the VPW calculations -- I found that I could withdraw even 10% from my portfolio every year and never "technically" run out of money - such a deal don't you think. FinancialDave, I am very interested to know what values you gave as parameters to the VPW spreadshe...
by longinvest
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?
Replies: 33
Views: 3243

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Hoops, I think that you're right. I just read a 100% Bogleheadish foreword by Larry Swedroe (if scored according the 10 BH principles) in Rick Van Ness' Why Bother With Bonds book. I humbly apologize for my earlier comment. I should be grateful that Larry tells us about his latest findings and agree...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 119
Views: 7878

Re: Return Percentage Question

dbr wrote:
longinvest wrote:You coul read (and maybe use the spreadsheet) in our wiki's Calculating personal returns.


Yes, you created that didn't you? I apologize for not mentioning it.


Off Topic: It's quite new. I didn't get much feedback yet so I don't know if it needs improvement.
by longinvest
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Return Percentage Question
Replies: 7
Views: 370

Re: Return Percentage Question

You could read (and maybe use the spreadsheet) in our wiki's Calculating personal returns.
by longinvest
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Return Percentage Question
Replies: 7
Views: 370

Re: Vanguard Personal Performance History: 10 Years

There's a spreadsheet for calculating personal performance in our wiki: Calculating personal returns
by longinvest
Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Performance History: 10 Years
Replies: 13
Views: 1967

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Browser wrote:Out with the heretics!! :!:

No! But a dose of articles endorsing the BH philosophy would be nice, too. :wink:
by longinvest
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 119
Views: 7878

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

High ER, alternative investment, 50$ transaction fee, not even a year old. And I thought this is BH forum. It is increasingly transforming into a SwedroeHeads forum, instead. We get Swedroe articles posted and discussed almost every other day. Annoyingly, most of these posts do not match (I'm tryin...
by longinvest
Thu Nov 20, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 119
Views: 7878

Re: Small cap value premium

You're not alone.
by longinvest
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 138
Views: 8675

Re: Diversification among Bonds?

ogd wrote:[...] That in itself is an argument -- a "Really Total Bond Market" doesn't exist because it's not really needed.

Thanks, ogd, for your insightful post.
by longinvest
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification among Bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 2875

Re: Small cap value premium

I learned a lot from reading Mr. Bogle's speech referenced by Taylor. One of my favorite tools has become Bogleheads member simpleton's TellTale chart tool: http://morning-wave-7809.herokuapp.com It will draw a TellTale chart for any two portfolios you give it. It's awesome! See http://www.boglehead...
by longinvest
Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 138
Views: 8675

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

It's a brilliant idea suggested by a member of another forum as replacement for the previous inflation line. While it works well for the Portfolio balance chart, I had to make a trade-off for the Withdrawals chart: I had to select an explicit minimum value ($10K) in order to use a logarithmic scale....
by longinvest
Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 493
Views: 60376

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Thanks for the information, LadyGeek. This situation could lead people to worry about the safety of using the spreadsheet. Is there any solution other than trying to get hold of a Windows computer with an Excel license? [I do not like the idea of using commercial software; it can threaten the long-t...
by longinvest
Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 493
Views: 60376

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I downloaded the file from DropBox; it is identical to the copy on my hard drive. LibreOffice opens it without any complaint. :annoyed

LadyGeek, if you read this: I need you help! What did I do wrong that Excel doesn't like?
by longinvest
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 493
Views: 60376

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Let me check things, first. The last time something like this happened, it was because the spreadsheet contained a link to this site (Excel is suspicious of all links). I have removed all links, but let me check if any link was added back by mistake in my last modification.
by longinvest
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 493
Views: 60376

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

I have added an entry for the spreadsheet in the Bogleheads Wiki, and added an explanation for the difference between investor return and portfolio return:

Calculating personal returns

Feel free to refer new Bogleheads to it!
by longinvest
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

When I do it from Dropbox on a Win 7 PC, I get 2 files. One is zero size, the other becomes VariablePercentageWithdrawal.xls.part with 16MB. Not sure what this is doing or how to use it. The ".part" suffix usually indicates that the download has not completed yet. Could you try downloadin...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 493
Views: 60376

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Did you download it from Google Drive or from DropBox?
by longinvest
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 493
Views: 60376

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I have uploaded a new version of the VPW spreadsheet on the Bogleheads Wiki VPW Page.

Changes:
  • Display both nominal and inflation-adjusted amounts in Withdrawal and Portfolio Balance charts.

Enjoy!
by longinvest
Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 493
Views: 60376

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

I was thinking of creating a Calculating Personal Return page (do you have a better page name suggestion?), in the Wiki, that would briefly explain the difference between "investor return" (money weighted) and "portfolio return" (time weighted), and include a link to the spreadsh...
by longinvest
Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

For anyone interested, I've just uploaded a new version (1.1) of the returns spreadsheet. (The download links are in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/posting.php?mode=reply&f=10&t=150025#pr2244484) New features: ⋅  It includes a Growth of $10,000 chart. ⋅  The layout is mo...
by longinvest
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

So you fill out the data every month? OR do you add months to the left ledger in the data sheet with time? I ask because I cannot add additional months to the left ledger in the data sheet. I am new to spreadsheets. For example, I put in start month of 11/2014. I put my total portfolio value in for...
by longinvest
Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: BND or a CD

[Added:] I have to agree with you that SEC yield is not useless in general. But, in the context of this thread, where we are trying to chose between a CD and a bond fund based on a minor difference between CD rate and SEC yield, I still think that SEC yield doesn't help. I'd need to see a theoretic...
by longinvest
Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

mpt, Since I started this discussion, please allow me to conclude that no matter how many times some one tries to convince me that SEC yield is meaningless, no doubt it is the best indicator of yield to maturity of a bond fund. I do not understand the business of rebalance, buying and selling bonds,...
by longinvest
Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

Kevin, Thanks for the reply. Yes, your mix of CD and bond fund would work too. I think that we agree overall. To get away from this image of black and white, I'll broaden my main point by saying that a simple look at CD rate and bond Sec yield won't help us determine which mix of CDs and bond funds ...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

So, SEC yield doesn't help me to predict whether it is better to use BND or a CD in my portfolio. Your overall point does indeed seem rather strange. You seem to be suggesting that since bond returns can't be predicted precisely, we should therefore predict that their returns will turn out better t...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

So, SEC yield doesn't help me to predict whether it is better to use BND or a CD in my portfolio. Of course it does. It's the centerline of expectations. Just because there are fluctuations around that number -- for bonds, they are small and mercilessly mean reverting, every big deviation borrowed ...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

It might help to clarify that I think in terms of money-weighted returns (internal rate of return), when I think of bond returns in a rebalanced mixed portfolio of stocks and bonds. It seems obvious to me that time-weighted returns and money-weigthed returns might significantly differ. That might ac...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

[...]So hoops777 may be convinced that the 10-year return for BND "will almost certainly be pathetic" because of the 92% historical correlation between current yield and subsequent 10-year annualized return. That assumes hoops777 thinks that 2% is pathetic. [...] I think you'll find expec...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

If I am correct, any intermediate fluctuations in the return are just temporary, unless I decide to sell before the duration of the fund. Do you agree?" In a buy/hold/rebalance portfolio of stocks and bonds, one does continually sell and buy bonds for rebalancing with stocks. Also, one is unli...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

SEC yield is a tool to compare bond funds. It doesn't account for future reinvestment yields, future movements in the yield curve, internal BND rebalancing due to changes in the bond market, and future rebalancing events between stocks and bonds in a portfolio. So, yes, I do think that for most prac...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

What really bothers me is knowing that I can invest a large sum in BND knowing that my returns will almost certainly be pathetic [...] Why are you so convinced? I'd like to get your crystal ball. :happy Who would have predicted in December 2013 that BND's YTD return would be ~5% by the end of Octob...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: BND or a CD

When I read all these posts about the alleged superiority of CDs, I go back and check the facts. The YTD return of BND is way higher than the return on a 5-year CD bought on January first and liquidated (with penalty) in October to rebalance a portfolio. Why do people believe that they can predict T...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9719

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

This spreadsheet is fine for people who like to fiddle with numbers to three decimal places. You are absolutely right. As I said in an earlier post, most Bogleheads should probably concentrate on their "savings rate" or " withdrawal rate " instead. But, human nature being what i...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

grayfox wrote:BTW, I had a really easy time entering the data. Using LibeOffice, I just cut a column of month end balances from another spreadsheet and pasted numbers only and voila, all the data is entered.

No contributions or withdrawals? :confused ... :happy
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

Tried to download and open in Excel. Got an error message about "unreadable data" when trying to open. Using the repair option gives this error message Excel completed file level validation and repair. Some parts of this workbook may have been repaired or discarded. Replaced Part: /xl/wor...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

One of my objectives is to make it as easy as possible to copy returns into a post. Here's what I get if I copy my own results (actual results replaced by "x"): INVESTOR RETURN (Money weighted return, internal rate of return) Period mm/dd/yyyy - mm/dd/yyyy Investor Return x.xx% PORTFOLIO R...
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: What are you up YTD?

schmitz wrote:How do I find ytd returns on vanguards site?

All I can find is my % for the last year.


Here's a super-easy to use spreadsheet that will calculate your returns: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=150025#p2244484
by longinvest
Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 213
Views: 18621

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

gkaplan, I would go one step further: Why would one compute the return of his portfolio? Maybe just knowing its current balance and contribution (or withdrawal) rate should be sufficient for a Boglehead. During accumulation, the "savings rate" is probably more important than the return, an...
by longinvest
Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

It sometimes happens that Bogleheads report the return of their portfolio (in threads like "What are you up YTD?"). When new Bogleheads ask about how to compute returms, they're often told about Excel's XIRR function, which is a very good way to compute an investor's return (how well am I ...
by longinvest
Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 31
Views: 3576

Re: What are you up YTD?

Using the spreadsheet suggested in viewtopic.php?f=1&t=149165&p=2244439#p2244439 :

PORTFOLIO RETURNS
(Time weighted returns, comparable returns)

Date 10/31/2014
YTD 7.21%

Asset Allocation: 50/50
by longinvest
Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 213
Views: 18621

A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

OK, I've built a Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads. I've tried to keep it as simple to use as possible. For each month, you only need to provide three pieces of data: ⋅  Total contributions. (Money added to portfolio, excluding any internal cash flows such as dividend payments). ⋅&nb...
by longinvest
Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating return
Replies: 35
Views: 3059

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

You are trying to market time, which is NOT the Boglehead philosophy. Now, if you are scared the market my crash the day/week/month/year after you invest, then DCA your way in - invest 1/12 of the amount each month for the next year and see how it goes. Assuming you are investing for the long term,...
by longinvest
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 53
Views: 6762

Re: Calculating return

Are there any spreadsheets, apps, or websites that do this kind of thing for you? I could build a sample spreadsheet for the Bernstein/Ferri method and make it available, if you wish. XIRR is already available as a built-in function is Excel and LibreOffice. That would be fantastic! Anything that i...
by longinvest
Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating return
Replies: 35
Views: 3059

Re: Calculating return

Hi dbr, I do know all that, but it doesn't change that XIRR is not the return to compare to a widely publicized S&P 500 annual return, as has been suggested by a felow Boglehead above in this thread. It is not, either, an appropiate YTD return to compare with others telling you about their own ...
by longinvest
Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating return
Replies: 35
Views: 3059

Re: Calculating return

I do know all that, but it doesn't change that XIRR is not the return to compare to a widely publicized S&P 500 annual return, as has been suggested by a felow Boglehead above in this thread. It is not, either, an appropiate YTD return to compare with others telling you about their own YTD XIRR ...
by longinvest
Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating return
Replies: 35
Views: 3059

Re: Calculating return

I run XIRR to get return data of my portfolio and compare it to the S&P 500 index fund. This simply tells me if my current investment strategy is better than ultra-passive approach I could have taken. I've been trying to explain that XIRR gives you a return that is not comparable to the S&P...
by longinvest
Sat Oct 25, 2014 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating return
Replies: 35
Views: 3059

Re: Calculating return

boroc7 wrote:Are there any spreadsheets, apps, or websites that do this kind of thing for you?

I could build a sample spreadsheet for the Bernstein/Ferri method and make it available, if you wish. XIRR is already available as a built-in function is Excel and LibreOffice.
by longinvest
Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating return
Replies: 35
Views: 3059
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