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Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous Yes, it does. Japan shows that a market crash can last long enough to convert shallow risk into deep risk. For those looking at Japan and coming up with reasons after the fact is kind of like how black swans are always reasoned out--after the fact. Is a...
by letsgobobby
Wed Apr 16, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 57
Views: 2692

Re: what should I do with my whole life policy

I would recommend keeping the policy inforce. Because of its age, it has a positive net cash flow that exceeds other fixed options at current interest rates. Your dividend option is the one I would recommend. Also, it is a gift from your parents. The human element is extremely important in family f...
by letsgobobby
Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what should I do with my whole life policy
Replies: 19
Views: 1162

Re: suggestion for awd luxury sedan

will do. I think my position differs from some others, because I already have my "fun" sports car for the weekends, and i have mission critical timing issues with being at work. Although i reside in a moderate climate (it does snow from nov-jan or feb however), i am very concerned about s...
by letsgobobby
Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: suggestion for awd luxury sedan
Replies: 38
Views: 2655

Re: TIPS and the Equity Bear

October 2008 was a great time to buy tips.
by letsgobobby
Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS and the Equity Bear
Replies: 20
Views: 1498

Re: Help with Whole Life Insurance (Parents Purchased)

After 30 years your internal return is probably good. Would keep this policy. I kept my similar whole policy and get better than bond like returns on the cash value.
by letsgobobby
Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Whole Life Insurance (Parents Purchased)
Replies: 15
Views: 958

Re: I'm buying more equities now. Going for 95-98%

You should read his book: his extensive data strongly indicates that stocks are safer than bonds over periods of 12-14 years and up. Hi Claver, Could you provide an exact quotation from one of Mr. Siegel's books (with book title and page number)? Did he actually write: "[...] stocks are safer ...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 13, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets in free fall?
Replies: 92
Views: 6471

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

There is no guarantee that claiming early locks in a better deal. They can still reduce benefits just as easily. Why assume claiming early provides any protection? The only protection it definitely assures is that benefits already received could not be unreceived. This discussion can occur without ...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2737

Re: The slackening...

There is a Chinese saying which goes something like: "Wealth doesn't get past 3 generations." Which probably sums up what you're talking about. Look at the families of the Robber Barons from the 1900's. How many of those heirs are nearly as successful as their ancestor. (Maybe they are su...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The slackening...
Replies: 55
Views: 5175

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

That was a good article about what sounds like intriguing and important research. I didn't see where she specifically addressed the issue of retirees taking SS ASAP because they can't afford not to (well, she mentioned it but it wasn't a focus of this interview) though I've read that is one of the p...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2737

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

This isn't about fairness. This is a question for those facing the question of whether to file early when they can afford to wait: do they/should they consider the possibility of not receiving their full benefit in determining when to claim?
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2737

The slackening...

Recently read a wonderful novel by Phillipp Meyer, "The Son", about the origins of a very wealthy Texas rancher/oilman, and his many descendants. One of his heirs, who is an outsized business success in her own right, experiences pangs of disappointment in her own grown children. When they...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The slackening...
Replies: 55
Views: 5175

less you need social security, earlier you should claim

I was on the road yesterday and while driving through Northern California heard a somewhat interesting personal finance radio show in which the hosts articulated a new-to-me way of thinking about who should claim SS benefits early, and who should delay. Their argument went as follows: Those who can ...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2737

Re: Stock markets in free fall?

Bonds are still a waste of time for young investors (<40yrs) who plan on retiring at 55 or later, even if the market drops another 30-40%. The market has risen well over that in the last few years and bonds would have been a major drag on returns. I agree. I wish I would have realized this 20 years...
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 12, 2014 2:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets in free fall?
Replies: 92
Views: 6471

Re: BH Greatest Hits: PE10 predicitive power

Looking over the Shiller PE10 chart at http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/, I see two time periods in which PE10 increased 6-fold. One was the period between 1920 and 1929. The other was the period between 1982 and 2000. Both were immediately followed by severe bear markets. In Japan, there was a mor...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BH Greatest Hits: PE10 predictive power
Replies: 39
Views: 2738

Re: Tax deductions from charities

I don't know. It's common practice among non profit museums for the entire basic family membership to be 100% tax deductible. Perhaps it's like synagogue or church dues? That is not the case. The IRS only allows you to deduct the portion that is not a direct benefit to the donor. For example, you c...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax deductions from charities
Replies: 31
Views: 1603

Re: Tax deductions from charities

I don't know. It's common practice among non profit museums for the entire basic family membership to be 100% tax deductible. Perhaps it's like synagogue or church dues?
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax deductions from charities
Replies: 31
Views: 1603

Re: Tax deductions from charities

Theoretically, a giver with a tax break should be willing to give more. At the top end of the tax bracket, if I'm willing to fork over $600 to a charity, I should be willing to give $1000 and get $400 back from the goverment. Without the tax break, the charity would only get $600 from me. Of course...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 10, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax deductions from charities
Replies: 31
Views: 1603

Re: Getting over huge mistakes

Yes, if $500k net worth at age 34 is a huge mistake, what does that make most Americans?

You'll retire comfortably and probably early given where you are now and your new insights and mentality. Welcome to the forum.
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting over huge mistakes
Replies: 30
Views: 3190

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

I've lived in CA off and on for about ten years and in WA for the last ten years. I did college and residency in CA. It is a beautiful place, especially the Bay Area, the Central Coast, San Diego. There is a vibe, the weather, the cultural sophistication, the concentration of creativity/intellect/in...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7583

Re: The Unthinkable Disaster: What If Your Account Disappear

This is why those dang quarterly statements matter so much!

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=136647

They're good for saving.
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 06, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Unthinkable Disaster: What If Your Account Disappeared?
Replies: 43
Views: 4328

Re: Buying for someone who "has everything"

jmndu99 wrote:I have to agree with the other responders that an EXPERIENCE is the best gift. Memories last a lifetime and cannot be bought


Didn't you just buy the memory with the gift of the experience?
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 05, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying for someone who "has everything"
Replies: 43
Views: 2281

Re: Putting $ away for children

practically speaking, $75k just isn't enough money to make such a big deal of this, especially in your financial situation. Let your kids have their right and legal shot at managing it. They'll learn a lot about money, and more importantly you'll learn a lot about them. What each of you learns may i...
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 05, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Putting $ away for children
Replies: 103
Views: 5357

Re: Where is the Vanguard 03/31/2014 statement?

Cute bait, but I'll take it. I am flagship, and I can see my Q1 statements. Got them yesterday.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where is the Vanguard 03/31/2014 statement?
Replies: 32
Views: 2038

Re: Buying for someone who "has everything"

my family has pretty much defaulted to alcohol. great bottle of wine, unique liquor, or a craft beer. Of course we live on the OR/WA border so we have lots of great and local wine, liquor, and beer options to procure.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 04, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying for someone who "has everything"
Replies: 43
Views: 2281

Re: Putting $ away for children

(next time I'll do a better job composing a politically correct opening post) Having stayed up all night thinking about this thread, I think that is a really good idea. The key for me is that the UGMA was a red herring. The children have money. It came from somewhere, perhaps modeling jobs they too...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Putting $ away for children
Replies: 103
Views: 5357

Re: road trip with kids, Northern California

Are you following me? That sounds like an exact itinerary for a trip I have coming up. Maybe we could carpool. Sounds like you are following me, eh? How about Tuesday night staying nearer Santa Cruz, then only two nights in Monterey? Boardwalk has limited rides and hours midweek. Should be less cro...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 04, 2014 1:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: road trip with kids, Northern California
Replies: 12
Views: 686

Re: Re:

I have cruised on Royal Caribbean. It was like being trapped inside a shopping mall in Las Vegas. I prefer to chew my leg off to escape than go on such a cruise again. Great comment livesoft. In my opinion livesoft is correct again. Also heard the large cruises compared to spending 10 day vacations...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Cruise Line Preference
Replies: 57
Views: 6570

road trip with kids, Northern California

We're going to be in Sacramento - SFO - San Jose - Monterey for 1 week. Kids are 4 and 7. Tentative plan, would appreciate feedback: Sat - long drive from PDX to Sacramento - 9 hours. DVDs and books on CD ready for the kids, financial podcasts and satellite radio ready for the adults. Sun - Sacramen...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: road trip with kids, Northern California
Replies: 12
Views: 686

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

I totally agree with Bogle on emphasizing corporates over Treasuries in current bond portfolios. I own no Treasuries or TIPS at all, only corporates in my tax-advantaged accounts and either money market or munis in my taxable personal account. There is some increased repayment risk in investment gr...
by letsgobobby
Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 60
Views: 5607

Re: Blog: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services

How is this new service different from the "Ask a CFP" service (free for Voyager Select $500k+) or the "Financial Plan service" ($1000 or less, free for Voyager Select and up)?
by letsgobobby
Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services
Replies: 23
Views: 3907

Re: Will this affect your Tipping? [Suggested Tip Amounts]

This may be how you feel, but if you are a regular anywhere, and never leave a tip because "it turns you off", I can't imagine the level of service you must get. :oops: I will leave a tip, but it burns my gut. Wait staff are seldom the lowest compensated employees in a restaurant. The dis...
by letsgobobby
Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will this affect your Tipping? [Suggested Tip Amounts]
Replies: 123
Views: 7544

Re: Will this affect your Tipping? [Suggested Tip Amounts]

Thanks to this thread, I have started paying in cash whenever there is an iPad cash register. That is the obvious, old-fashioned solution I had never thought about because I've been cashless for so long. Now I have to remember to get cash back the 12 times per month I make a debit card purchase to m...
by letsgobobby
Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will this affect your Tipping? [Suggested Tip Amounts]
Replies: 123
Views: 7544

Re: ILIT for term life insurance? [Irrevocable Life Ins. Tru

Eric - good point. If only I had thought of that first! Now I have the insurance I have, and the question remains: is an ILIT worth it? The figures are: $2 M for 15 years, $500k for years 15-20, and a state estate tax rate of 19% above the exclusion amount; however, how much of those life insurance ...
by letsgobobby
Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ILIT for term life insurance? [Irrevocable Life Ins. Trust]
Replies: 11
Views: 555

Re: ILIT for term life insurance?

Assume such an estate would have many other assets exceeding its state's exempt amount, making the entire policy benefit taxable at the full rate. The example is just an illustration.
by letsgobobby
Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ILIT for term life insurance? [Irrevocable Life Ins. Trust]
Replies: 11
Views: 555

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

I appreciate all of you who have replied. I am subscriber of his news letter . I am invested in portfolio #2. I do not have a sophisticated knowledge in investing. However, I had decent returns over the last 5 years following his advise. After reading BH posts over the last few years, I am constant...
by letsgobobby
Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bob Brinker portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 3408

ILIT for term life insurance? [Irrevocable Life Ins. Trust]

Irrevocable life insurance trusts allow life insurance proceeds to pass outside of the estate, thus sparing potential estate taxes. I usually see them recommended for whole life insurance policies. Can they be appropriate for term policies? Hypothetical: $1 million term life policy x 20 years. State...
by letsgobobby
Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ILIT for term life insurance? [Irrevocable Life Ins. Trust]
Replies: 11
Views: 555

Re: (Lack of) Emergency Fund - Are We Crazy?

not crazy, but as others have said for emergency purposes you only have a $35k taxable account. That's what a TSM portfolio will do in a downturn, when you are most likely to have an emergency. If $35k meets your emergency needs, then you're good. Although I understand the rationale for your approac...
by letsgobobby
Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Lack of) Emergency Fund - Are We Crazy?
Replies: 44
Views: 3438

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

If I came here saying I owned a $1.8M home (no mortgage), had $700K in savings, and $430K salary + RSU would you be praising me or saying the same thing? Because they are nearly equivalent situations; one just involves taking a risk on the market performing better than today's 30 year interest rate...
by letsgobobby
Fri Mar 28, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7032

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

Tetons over the Snake River - iconic photo. This thread has prompted me to advise my family to sell their multi-family housing stock in SF. With a straight face, someone says they have earned their $3m and their $450k income (half of which is in stock) by hard work I tell you. There is no question, ...
by letsgobobby
Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7032

Re: Tax-free growth vs. keeping all bonds in tax-advantaged

Thanks, everyone. Lots to think about here. - Part of the magic of retirement accounts like 401ks and IRAs is that the earnings grow tax free. Growth is faster than a taxable account because you're reinvesting all dividends and capital gains without any taxation, thus speeding along the compounding...
by letsgobobby
Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-free growth vs. keeping all bonds in tax-advantaged acct
Replies: 19
Views: 1259

Re: Donor Advised Funds

Like so many things in life, it depends.... If your primary charity feeds the homeless, then putting the money into a DAF and holding onto it isn't feeding folks. OTOH, maybe instead of handing a given charity $2500, you would rather space it out into five gifts of $500. Are they really going to co...
by letsgobobby
Fri Mar 28, 2014 11:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Donor Advised Funds
Replies: 56
Views: 2028

Re: Donor Advised Funds

that's an interesting article/perspective, thanks for posting.
by letsgobobby
Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Donor Advised Funds
Replies: 56
Views: 2028

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

Historically SF appears to be one of a few global cities with long-term, sustained, above-trend pricing growth in excess of inflation. That is, until the next big earthquake. The data does not show a sustained above-trend pricing growth - Case Schiller has been FLAT for the past 9 years - that's st...
by letsgobobby
Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7032

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

Historically SF appears to be one of a few global cities with long-term, sustained, above-trend pricing growth in excess of inflation. That is, until the next big earthquake. The data does not show a sustained above-trend pricing growth - Case Schiller has been FLAT for the past 9 years - that's st...
by letsgobobby
Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7032

Re: Tax-free growth vs. keeping all bonds in tax-advantaged

I have struggled with issue as well, and there have been a few threads dissecting the ins and outs in great detail. I use a workaround to sidestep the issue, where I use my I-bonds as bond portion of portfolio (and emergency fund, but I digress). This way, if I ever have a low income year, I can ca...
by letsgobobby
Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-free growth vs. keeping all bonds in tax-advantaged acct
Replies: 19
Views: 1259

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

good points FrogPrince, however that does include the worst housing crash nationally in 75 years; and while SF in particular wasn't badly damaged, the Bay Area surely suffered. Historically SF appears to be one of a few global cities with long-term, sustained, above-trend pricing growth in excess of...
by letsgobobby
Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7032

Re: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem

The detraction about annuities isn't just the control, it's the 'not leaving to heirs' part. In today's issue of the NY Times, there is an article about reverse mortgages "forcing heirs to sell the family home." http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/pitfalls-of-reverse-mortgages-may-pass-...
by letsgobobby
Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem
Replies: 89
Views: 5657

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

Yes, it is normal for humans to make plans based on optimistic and best case scenarios. Meanwhile, my family is considering selling its apartment building in SF after a two and a half decade bull market. OP should consider - what if wife stays home? what if one job goes away? What if options end up...
by letsgobobby
Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7032

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

Yes, it is normal for humans to make plans based on optimistic and best case scenarios. Meanwhile, my family is considering selling its apartment building in SF after a two and a half decade bull market. OP should consider - what if wife stays home? what if one job goes away? What if options end up ...
by letsgobobby
Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7032
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