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Re: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)

I haven't read Kelly, I haven't read the notes, I haven't read Poundstone although I have the book on my shelf. So the Kelly criterion says to put 140% of your portfolio in stocks to maximize your likely long-term returns. 95% or 99% of investors should not be solving for this X. The X they should b...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 26, 2015 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 140% Stocks (or why the Kelly criterion is cool)
Replies: 54
Views: 1145

Re: does anyone have an hour commute (each way?)

My commute is exactly 40 minutes each way, nearly all on the highway, never any traffic. And it is mostly beautiful: 30 miles are along the Columbia River, bald eagles in winter and Mts Hood and St. Helens, Rainier and Adams in the background. The drive is no problem: I enjoy the personal time. The ...
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [new position, facing an] hour commute (each way)
Replies: 42
Views: 1741

Re: Best (Available)Red Wine for under $15 preferrably under

CC HHH makes cab and merlot.

Another one I forgot is CC Grand Estates Amitage. Under $10, each vintage is different but it's a steal.

For close to $15 I would look at Italian nero d'avola. I'm particular to Colosi but most of it is good.
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best (Available)Red Wine for under $15 preferrably under $10
Replies: 49
Views: 3249

Re: $139 lease for EV, $0 down, 39 month lease Chevy Spark

I guess we'll agree to disagree. Simply not worth the headache of monitoring an ongoing financial commitment - payments clearing, applied appropriately, etc - just to get from A to B. I'd rather think about something else as a I drive. It's not any different than using a credit card. 0% interest fo...
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 25, 2015 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $139 lease for EV, $0 down, 39 month lease Chevy Spark
Replies: 46
Views: 2915

Re: Who follows Age in Bonds

blevine wrote:
A related question is how often to adjust to your age, every year, every 5 years ?


the best time would be right before the next market crash. That's what I'm planning to do.
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 25, 2015 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who follows Age in Bonds
Replies: 58
Views: 3768

Re: Tough to get a mortgage while retired?

So the moral of the story is, what? Buy your dream home before you retire?
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tough to get a mortgage while retired?
Replies: 22
Views: 1890

Re: $139 lease for EV, $0 down, 39 month lease Chevy Spark

In fact that's not always the case. But if you can find a purchase offer for the same vehicle that costs less than the lease, after accounting for the massive depreciation hit, please post it.

I finance tools at the right price. I currently finance my Prius tool for 0% interest.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $139 lease for EV, $0 down, 39 month lease Chevy Spark
Replies: 46
Views: 2915

Re: Giving Vanguard VTSMX as a Wedding Gift

cheese_breath wrote:You have got to be kidding. Only if it's on the wedding registry. I can't think of a more impersonal gift.

I think it's ok if you're the rich uncle trying to teach your niece or nephew a few things. Otherwise I agree.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Giving Vanguard VTSMX as a Wedding Gift
Replies: 34
Views: 2430

Re: $139 lease for EV, $0 down, 39 month lease Chevy Spark

If you read through the "Does it ever make sense to lease a car" thread from a few weeks ago, a situation such as this was one of the few times leasing versus buying can make a lot of sense. The technology is changing so quickly that the car could essentially be obsolete in 3 years, so it...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $139 lease for EV, $0 down, 39 month lease Chevy Spark
Replies: 46
Views: 2915

Re: As Cogntivity Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to

The Wizard wrote:So do driving skills go first or financial skills?
I'm only 65 and think I'm still on top of both.
I could, of course, be mistaken...

you are likely mistaken about your driving skills, but apparently, so is most of the world.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: As Cognition Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to Go
Replies: 22
Views: 1572

Re: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years

Since it's at an all time high and was markedly lower than that many times in the last 15 years, we know it can't be negative or 0.1%. It's either of the two larger positive numbers. Of course that's not the same as your quotation, "the N returned 0% over 15 years," which is ubiquitously u...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR of NASDAQ over the last 15 years
Replies: 14
Views: 796

Re: How should anticipated inheritance affect asset allocati

Hi all, My parents have discussed the inheritance with me. They are not leaving it to charity, and the chances of my dad leaving everything to a future wife are close enough to zero that I'd say I'm more worried about earthquakes leveling the eastern seaboard. Never say never, I guess Indeed. Anoth...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should anticipated inheritance affect asset allocation?
Replies: 17
Views: 1199

Re: As Cogntivity Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to

Here is an interesting New York Times article about how the ability to competently handle financial matters is one of the first things older adults lose if they develop cognitive issues: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/25/your-money/as-cognitivity-slips-financial-skills-are-often-the-first-to-go.htm...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: As Cognition Slips, Financial Skills Often the First to Go
Replies: 22
Views: 1572

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

So it sounds like the argument is that American accounting standards have changed for the worse, earnings are no longer reported as accurately as they used to be, therefore we should be less worried by an earnings yield of 1/29 (=3.4%) than we would have been before standards slipped. We don't need...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 23417

Re: TSP ==> Vanguard or not

transferring to Vanguard means no backdoor Roth IRA, so for that reason I would avoid.

You could move to your current 401k, if they will accept the transfer.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP ==> Vanguard or not
Replies: 11
Views: 919

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

is that a real or nominal earnings yield?
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 23417

Re: Mistakes, Regrets & Stupidity - collection of past threa

thank you, amazing effort.

Not a direct fit, but you could pull together car threads, too. It kind of goes in with the 'how much should I spend/save' conundrum and we get a lot of them.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mistakes, Regrets & Stupidity - collection of past threads
Replies: 6
Views: 1449

Re: Cocktail Hobby

I don't much drink cocktails but on our recent Caribbean cruise we tasted a lot of different rums and kind of fell for them. On a hot day a rum punch or pina colada goes down well. Very caloric though. Our favorite rum of widely available brands turned out to me Angostura 5 year. It was cheaper in t...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cocktail Hobby
Replies: 11
Views: 1737

Re: Best touristy places to live in the world?

so many to choose from

Rome
Paris
London
Maui
Grand Canyon South Rim - try getting a job as the physician there, I hear the wait list is miles long
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best touristy places to live in the world?
Replies: 30
Views: 2803

Re: Best (Available)Red Wine for under $15 preferrably under

Columbia Crest Cabernet. $7.99 at Costco. Routinely better than many $20 bottles IMHO agreed, assume we're talking about "Grand Estates". The Two Vines label is my cooking wine. Columbia Crest Horse Heaven Hills wine is also great, and I can get it on sale in WA for less than $10, but mor...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best (Available)Red Wine for under $15 preferrably under $10
Replies: 49
Views: 3249

Re: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio

I have no idea! We own almost exclusively VEU/VXUS or their mutual fund equivalents. So whatever the market weight is, that's what we have.

We do have a small tilt toward EM in our 529s, but not for any good reason. And it's pretty small.
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio
Replies: 51
Views: 2030

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

Bobby: Actuarially, stocks beat bonds. So the expected return is the expected return. I have no crystal ball for the future, but the expected return on equities is greater than on debt instruments. You seem to be controlled by fear of an-historic events (a 90% drop in the market???). It seems your ...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3585

Re: Wall Street Week is Back

A tip of the hat to Cullen Roche and his blog "Pragmatic Capitalism." He posted an article about the return of Wall Street Week. The rights to the show were purchased by Anthony Scaramucci. The set where the show is produced is now located at Times Square in New York City. https://www.you...
by letsgobobby
Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wall Street Week is Back
Replies: 4
Views: 810

Re: Who follows Age in Bonds

I'm coming around to the idea that my least risky allocation should occur the day I retire: I no longer have income to pump up my portfolio; and I have the most number of years remaining in retirement. Five years later, I have 5 fewer years I need to support myself: I can take a little more risk (th...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who follows Age in Bonds
Replies: 58
Views: 3768

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

aggressive group. I would like to hear from this large group of age-10, age-20, 100% stocks group why they think a long held investing adage is now wrong. Are you taking more risk because you want to? Because you need to? I realize we have a supremely educated group of investors here and would not ...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3585

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

Bobby: Actuarially, stocks beat bonds. So the expected return is the expected return. I have no crystal ball for the future, but the expected return on equities is greater than on debt instruments. You seem to be controlled by fear of an-historic events (a 90% drop in the market???). It seems your ...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3585

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

Bobby: Not sure of your point vis-à-vis my comment as follows: 1. I think volatility is covered in my point #2. As long as I don't liquidate, the expected long term yield advantage is in equities. it's not about volatility; rather it's about the expected or hoped for advantage if it doesn't show up...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3585

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

Bobby: I grew up in the "Carter" era of 13% inflation. The risk of inadequate asset growth is a bigger risk to me personally than short-term volatility. There again, I am almost immune to volatility, I went through 2008/209 with 100% stocks and never considered liquidating. I have since a...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3585

How do I know if my 403b is an ERISA plan?

and for what purposes would it matter? This is what DOL says, I think, about this matter; not easy for me to interpret: http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/regs/fab2007-2.html specifically: "Although not subject to the qualification requirements of section 401 of the Code, some of the requirements that app...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I know if my 403b is an ERISA plan?
Replies: 3
Views: 306

Re: 401K Law

My situation has improved a little. My money now routinely shows up on the Wednesday after Friday pay day, and recently it even showed up on a Tuesday. My wife's is same day, so she still has me beat.
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Law
Replies: 39
Views: 8098

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

aggressive group. I would like to hear from this large group of age-10, age-20, 100% stocks group why they think a long held investing adage is now wrong. Are you taking more risk because you want to? Because you need to? I realize we have a supremely educated group of investors here and would not b...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3585

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

I would say the biggest failure of PE10 in its history has been its predicted 15 year return of the Naz beginning in March 2000. 15 years later is has had a return of about 0%. That is not good, but PE10 at that point was, what 100 (on the Nasdaq)? The PE10 for the S&P500 was about 45, and Naz m...
by letsgobobby
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 5600

Re: Physicians: What's your vacation policy?

I get 5 weeks per year and can take them when I want so long as it's not all last minute. They don't roll over. We get 2 weeks CME per year. I have a 4 day work week, so I don't take all 5 weeks off....yet. I'm compensated 100 percent by RVU so no "paid vacation." Similar. 4 day workweek,...
by letsgobobby
Wed Apr 22, 2015 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Physicians: What's your vacation policy?
Replies: 28
Views: 2747

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

Sure but wouldn't you be steadily reducing risk as you edged ever closer to your number? I agree with reducing risk but suggest it should be a more incremental process than he suggests.

Separately there is no perfect risk free tool: 100% guaranteed 0%+ real return net of taxes?
by letsgobobby
Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14752

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

I have just skimmed most responses, but while I agree with Bill's proposal, it only really makes sense if you get a windfall, like a lottery or inheritance. One day you're way down here, then the next day - POOF! - you've 'won the game.' Yeah, you should stop playing in that case. For most of us it'...
by letsgobobby
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14752

Re: “Entry level” luxury cars under 40k

Don't bother with AWD. You are better served with a set of proper snow tires mounted on a second set of wheels. You can then ditch the increased weight, mechanical complexity, cost and drivetrain losses. As a bonus, your primary set of tires can then be of the high performance summer variety (Dunlo...
by letsgobobby
Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: “Entry level” luxury cars under 40k
Replies: 93
Views: 7924

Re: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"

To the OP, I think at 35, 35% in bonds is too conservative. I don't agree, I think it could well be appropriate and jacoavlu hasn't given us any reason to suspect otherwise in his/her case. We are so quick to forget the existential pain that investors felt in 2008 and 2009. That pain caused real ch...
by letsgobobby
Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on equties, treasuries, and "risk"
Replies: 46
Views: 4247

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

If you are expecting both a pension and social security in retirement, then you might be ok making balanced Roth and traditional contributions. If not, then it is almost certainly a mistake to be doing so and you are likely paying more in taxes than you need to.
by letsgobobby
Mon Apr 20, 2015 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 4658

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

Why are you using roth 401k and tsp and not traditional? Especially if you are considering early retirement?
by letsgobobby
Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 4658

Re: Porter Stansberry advising going to 100% cash - Help!

No, it is too late to be right. You are creating an out for him which does not exist. In 2013 he said the market would fall 50% "next year," and 2014 is over. No dice.
by letsgobobby
Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Porter Stansberry advising going to 100% cash - Help!
Replies: 56
Views: 7350

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

http://archive.fortune.com/2011/02/09/pf/shiller_cape_ratio.fortune/index.htm Back in 2011, early in the bull market, PE10 thought equities were overvalued. Actually, Shiller even missed an historic buying opportunity in 2009, insisting PE10 had not yet bottomed out. Shiller's a brilliant guy and h...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 5600

Re: Marginal benefit of spending more on car

What does going from $5k to $10k get me (in terms of reliability, performance, comfort, safety, properly designed cupholders, etc.)? I think you've itemized out what you need to rank-order so that you can decide. I don't look at cost first. I'm interested in safety first and rank other things behin...
by letsgobobby
Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marginal benefit of spending more on car
Replies: 67
Views: 4737

Re: mandatory 17% tip at a buffet

I understated the tip amount. The $65 was only on the $400 portion I paid; the other part of the group paid another $300 or so and about $50, respectively.
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: mandatory 17% tip at a buffet
Replies: 32
Views: 3521

Re: mandatory 17% tip at a buffet

I read that if it's called a service fee it can be mandatory. If it's called a tip or gratuity it must be negotiable. My objection was on two levels. First, the mandatory nature of a fee for service applied before the service was delivered. Second, I do not tip 17% at buffets though I usually tip 10...
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: mandatory 17% tip at a buffet
Replies: 32
Views: 3521

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

I just don't like Keira Knightley and fear she'll ruin the movie. Does she?
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 773
Views: 103865

mandatory 17% tip at a buffet

Recently in Vegas and took a group of 16 to a buffet. They mandated a 17% tip upon paying, before being seated. I don't know if it was negotiable after the fact, say if service had been poor; in any case it wasn't. But I don't normally tip 17 for a buffet; usually 10%. I have not witnessed this prac...
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: mandatory 17% tip at a buffet
Replies: 32
Views: 3521

Re: My job says I can't work for anyone else...

All very state dependent. In my state non competes have been enforceable (so I'm told). The suggestion that those who agree to them are not critically analyzing their contracts is wrong, and insulting. There is no intellectual property as a physician. It's purely about stealing patients. Interesting...
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My job says I can't work for anyone else...
Replies: 61
Views: 6072

Re: long term capital gain tax vs. roth conversions

This is a common dilemma, tax gain harvesting or Roth IRA conversions in the 15% bracket. Many others have posted the same question., including myself.

I recall being linked to a calculator, possibly called iOrp?
by letsgobobby
Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: long term capital gain tax vs. roth conversions
Replies: 41
Views: 2344
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