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Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

I can best come to terms with this as follows. While I may expect to have more money to invest in the future, and thus it would seem I may be comfortable taking more risk now, in fact this expectation may not materialize. I could, for instance, become disabled or laid off, in which case my human cap...
by letsgobobby
Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: I want to pay off my mortgage.

I agree with others that a good compromise would be to refinance that $145k balance into a 30 year mortgage, frees up tons of cash flow without giving up any liquidity, and it doesn't harm your retirement planning at all since you are apparently doing quite well given your age, job security (and pen...
by letsgobobby
Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I want to pay off my mortgage.
Replies: 33
Views: 1764

Re: Fidelity Offers A Round-Trip to Europe for New Account

we got our 50k miles within a week of confirming the deal. Easiest money ever, and airline miles aren't taxable income. Will buy us a $1000 coach ticket at the holidays.
by letsgobobby
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Offers A Round-Trip to Europe for New Account
Replies: 9
Views: 860

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

yes, done just now. Total International mutual fund shares at close of day.
by letsgobobby
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: Being older/younger in class -- benefits, issues?

I would say do what feels right. My son is a happy, very well-behaved, very social kid who reads very well, and all you need for K is to recognize 8 letters, so he could have started this year, but it didn't feel 'right' for him so here he stays despite turning five this week. I doubt we'll think ab...
by letsgobobby
Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Being older/younger in class -- benefits, issues?
Replies: 103
Views: 6959

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

This seems very counterintuitive to me... It's not counterintuitive if you recognize that rebalancing is about maintaining the risk and return target of a portfolio as a whole (defined by asset allocation in reference to constant long term expected risk and return) and is not about some kind of aut...
by letsgobobby
Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

Thanks all for the continued discussion, pokes and prods included. I concur with YDNAL, my actions over the last few years have, I thought, been in keeping with pure Bogleheadism: use new money to shore up underweight accounts. That was easy when we were talking fixed income, which tends not to appr...
by letsgobobby
Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: Oatmeal suggestions

OK, based on this thread I ate oatmeal today as a 2nd breakfast. It seems a take-away from this thread is that oatmeal tastes so bad that one has to add good-tasting bad things to it to make it palatable. I'm gonna guess that those bad things are already added to instant oatmeal which is why instan...
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oatmeal suggestions
Replies: 96
Views: 3218

Re: Oatmeal suggestions

You can cook steel cut oats overnight.

Bring one cup steel cut oats and 4 cups of water to a boil. Cover and remove from heat. Let sit overnight. In the morning take the portion you want, thin with a little milk, and heat in microwave. Done.
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oatmeal suggestions
Replies: 96
Views: 3218

Re: Let's hear your Dave Ramsey success stories

House and cars paid off all due to Dave's great message. I don't believe in his investment advice but for getting out of debt he's the best. I'm curious why you claim it's Dave's "message" that turned you around given that his advice (i.e. pay off your debts, spend less than you earn, wri...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 28, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's hear your Dave Ramsey success stories
Replies: 32
Views: 4056

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

You are right that I don't like losing money. I agree I am not at peace with that idea. However, through a process called radical acceptance, I understand that it must and will happen. But this isn't just about predicting the future or regretting the past. It's about investing in the probabilistical...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

technovelist wrote:Does this count as a toppy indicator, such as "Why isn't everyone 100% 200% stocks?"?

The opposite, I'd say the argument would be even more compelling if stocks were cheap.
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

Jan, I don't think I've lost my mind but you be the judge. Imagine someone's goal is to retire with $1M real in 10 years, and he has $400k now split 60/40 ($240k in stocks, $160k in bonds) and he plans to stay 60/40 til retirement. That implies he'll retire with $600k in stocks and $400k in bonds. H...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

This is really a cousin of the lump sum vs dca argument. Lump summing is better on average. If I have the money I should invest it all now. Dca is only better on average when you can't lump sum.
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

telemark wrote:Most of the stock you own now has a very low basis. You are now going to buy a small amount with a much higher basis. This is unlikely to matter much. I think you're overthinking this.

But "we've only just begun..." if I accumulate for twenty more years this will happen repeatedly.
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

For those who could tolerate this may be a reason to be almost entirely stocks until the long term projected terminal value of stock holdings based on some reasonable guesstimate of returns are sufficient to match terminal desired stock holdings. After that everything goes to fixed income.
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: Savings exceed lifetime earnings

Then I think you're just asking if valuation should impact swr. This has been debated a lot. The answers range from no to maybe a little to absolutely yes. I'm in the yes a little camp. But with enough dollars in question it still won't impact my decision to retire because a bad sequence of returns ...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings exceed lifetime earnings
Replies: 13
Views: 2934

Re: Answer to Most Physician/High Net Worth Questions:

Rephrase as what is the max one should have in an HSA. Don't know. I'll throw out $100k just because... it's a round number.
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Answer to Most Physician/High Income Job Questions:
Replies: 31
Views: 2261

Re: Answer to Most Physician/High Net Worth Questions:

Sometimes i think we push the live like a resident idea too much. Definitely do stretch yourself with expensive purchases but if you live too frugal, i personally believe you miss out on life. I also feel this leads to poor performance in the work environment eventually. Now if you stretch yourself...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Answer to Most Physician/High Income Job Questions:
Replies: 31
Views: 2261

Re: Savings exceed lifetime earnings

Don, you may find this thread of interest: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=145796&newpost=2172098 It talks of wealth creation efficiency, that is, what percent of your lifetime Medicare wages, adjusted for inflation , you have converted to wealth.\ As for your question, ...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings exceed lifetime earnings
Replies: 13
Views: 2934

Re: Answer to Most Physician/High Net Worth Questions:

All you need to know about Physician/High net worth Investing: Physician Financial Priority: Step 0 - pick your spouse well and get a prenup if appropriate 1a. Get great disability insurance 1b. Get Emergency Fund - agree 1c. Get personal umbrella insurance 1d. Get excellent malpractice insurance 2...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Answer to Most Physician/High Income Job Questions:
Replies: 31
Views: 2261

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

When stocks are dropping you have to buy more stocks. Agree, but that's not what's happening here. Stocks continue to rise to all time record highs, but not fast enough to offset fixed income contributions/gains. Is my risk determined by the percentage of portfolio invested in risky assets, or by d...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

long story short: For years I've been 60/40, with 90%+ of all new contributions going to fixed income. This has worked because the stock market is going up 25% per year for the last five years, so my portfolio stays balanced. Really haven't had to rebalance at all during that period of time. But in ...
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 82
Views: 4521

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

also if you are that risk averse and willing to take such a low rate of return, why not annuitize a portion of your portfolio?
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 4964

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

The risk of being in 100% CDs with a current real return of 0% is if unexpected inflation shows up your purchasing power will be crushed. Thanks John. But let me ask you this, if inflation became an issue, wouldn't CD rates be rising as well. Stocks are no guarantee against inflation. Rising rates ...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 4964

Re: FTBFX vs FSITX [Fidelity Total Bond vs. Spartan Bond]

If you look at the end of 2008, the managed fund did significantly worse than the index, just when you really wanted your bonds to be safe. This is the critical point. Because during the next crisis, maybe stocks and high yield bonds don't bounce back quickly, or at all, and safe government bonds a...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTBFX vs FSITX [Fidelity Total Bond vs. Spartan Bond]
Replies: 10
Views: 718

Re: BIG ($180k) student debt!! Strategy needed.

Regarding the student debt: 1) If the debtor is interested in working for a 501(c)3, go for Public Service Loan Forgiveness. 2) If not, refinance that debt as low as 3% variable and 4-5% fixed with one of several companies, then pay it off aggressively. http://whitecoatinvestor.com/new-options-for-...
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BIG ($180k) student debt!! Strategy needed.
Replies: 40
Views: 3772

Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY, VANGUARD

It's been 40 years since Jack founded Vanguard. In that time period, Vanguard has grown from a tiny company of 28 employees overseeing $1.4 billion when Jack started the firm in 1974. It has since grown to a behemoth with over 14,000 crew members all over the globe and some $3 trillion in assets un...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HAPPY [40th] BIRTHDAY, VANGUARD
Replies: 16
Views: 1494

Re: BIG ($180k) student debt!! Strategy needed.

Can't your wife earn more than $45k as a vet? I mean I know vets don't make doctor salaries but I think they make more than the median wage, don't they? What was her strategy for paying off almost $200k in debt before she took the loans? For psychological reasons I would pay off all your small loans...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BIG ($180k) student debt!! Strategy needed.
Replies: 40
Views: 3772

Re: Cast Iron Skillet Cooking

FYI, Cooks Illustrated recommended seasoning cast iron with grapeseed oil. If they have been previously seasoned with inferior products, you can use an oven cleaner to remove. I have a Lodge 12 inch and it was well seasoned new. I have no name brands and even after years they're not well seasoned; n...
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cast Iron Skillet Cooking
Replies: 90
Views: 6801

Re: New Investor begging for input

I would use these single years to save mass bucks, like way over $100k per year. That means your taxable account will almost immediately be your largest account, thus I would do: backdoor Roth IRA - stocks 401k - 50/50 stable value fund and Spartan total bond fund taxable - stocks and some muni bond...
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor begging for input
Replies: 34
Views: 1425

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

I ran Firecalc with current assets/portfolio, added 5 more years of our current savings, then ran 40 years of our current spending. Success rate about 80%. Not bad, considering we won't in fact be drawing down anything at that point; just not adding. Is there any way to make Firecalc actually do that?
by letsgobobby
Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 58
Views: 7359

Re: Professional gambler in unique investment situation

I agree with billern, you seem like a candidate to take less than the usual amount of portfolio risk, not more.
by letsgobobby
Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Professional gambler in unique investment situation
Replies: 23
Views: 3388

Re: CCH Projects 2015 Brackets, IRA Limits etc

doesn't say about 401k/403b contributions?

thanks for posting this.
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CCH Projects 2015 Brackets, IRA Limits etc
Replies: 3
Views: 679

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

Over 15 years from age 28-43 (I'm 45 now), my wife and I went from 200k net worth to $1.5 million net worth... At the point, we determined we could "coast" to retirement, and my wife retired (she hated her job the last couple of years). We're now living off my salary alone, and saving a L...
by letsgobobby
Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 58
Views: 7359

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

You have to save a lot, very early, and also get lucky with nice returns. If you save a lot early then lose half of it over the next five years, you probably can't coast. But you're better off than you would have been if you hadn't saved.
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 58
Views: 7359

Re: Vanguard's Website - Bad, or just me?

Website is more than enough to meet my needs.
by letsgobobby
Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard's Website - Bad, or just me?
Replies: 36
Views: 2391

Re: Key to happintess in retirement.

Walter Updegrave at Forbes had a somewhat similar set for keys to happiness in retirement: http://www.forbes.com/sites/nextavenue/2014/09/03/more-sex-and-3-other-tips-for-a-happier-retirement/ This is a good article with some less intuitive recommendations such as: * be "very satisfisatisfiede...
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Key to happiness in retirement
Replies: 36
Views: 3720

Re: Ack! Bought a Dividend!

Could convert to etf and then sell before dividend.
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ack! Bought a Dividend!
Replies: 26
Views: 2462

Re: How much to self insure LTC and longevity? hypothetical

LTC would consume most or all of this couple's income if not more. What is the one not requiring LTC going to live on?
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to self insure LTC and longevity? hypothetical
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy

I'll save you a little trouble anyway, I like Cormac McCarthy, at least one book by Ishiguro Kazuo, and recently enjoyed Junot Diaz' The Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao (for something completely different), American Pastoral by Phillip Roth, Earth Abides by George Stewart, and a reread of Lord of ...
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy
Replies: 226
Views: 10984

How much to self insure LTC and longevity? hypothetical

Say you are a married couple about to retire at age 65, in average health neither better nor worse than average with average family history. You will receive SS of $2500 per month and have $6000 per month in expenses. Your home is paid off and you have no debt and your kids if any are self sufficien...
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to self insure LTC and longevity? hypothetical
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: The Annuity Puzzlement

Yes for the average investor annuities appear underbought. But for those who can afford to self insure, be it LTC, inflation, longevity, total home loss, etc, buying any for of insurance may be unwise. That probably will include include a number of Bogleheads, but not all.
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzlement
Replies: 95
Views: 6363

Re: How often do YOU rebalance and when?

I don't believe I've rebalanced since August 2011 and then I had to do it twice based on pe10 and my target allocation both demanding it.

Since then the stock market keeps going up and I keep buying bonds and I haven't been more than 1% out of whack.
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How often do YOU rebalance and when?
Replies: 39
Views: 1977

Re: Vanguard as corporate trustee

Vanguard is our corporate co trustee but I'm still alive so haven't had to test them out yet.
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard as corporate trustee
Replies: 3
Views: 218

Re: Hamilton watches, worth the money?

I agree about the subdials, especially in contrasting colors. Not really appropriate for semi-formal wear. Best is a plain white face with simple black leather bracelet, at least to my taste. Second choice would be the white face with a stainless bracelet. For my taste these sub dials don't look to...
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hamilton watches, worth the money?
Replies: 236
Views: 9764

Re: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program

They can afford them but I can only assume their results showed they could not find them consistently, which is basically the active management story. I wish they'd publish the complete results of their long experiment with hedge funds.
by letsgobobby
Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program
Replies: 44
Views: 2887

Re: Learning a NEW language - Foreign Service Inst

Have been playing with duolingo and it's cute but certainly not going to create speaking or listening fluency, unless I am missing something. It's a bit of a brush up for my Spanish vocabulary and grammar but the spoken examples are very brief. Telenovelas and noticieros on Univision are more helpfu...
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning a NEW language - Foreign Service Inst
Replies: 37
Views: 2462

Re: What's in your tax advantage accounts?

Pretax accounts a 50/50 mix of total bond and stable value.

Roths 100% small value and international especially small.

Taxable I bonds but predominantly total us and international stock.

Taxable is 40% of total, Roth 20%.
by letsgobobby
Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's in your tax advantage accounts?
Replies: 54
Views: 3931

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

We have been saving aggressively since age 29 when I graduated residency. Now age 40. By age 45 I expect to be able to coast/quit saving, but as others have said it won't be second nature so I will probably strike more of a middle ground and just order dessert more often.
by letsgobobby
Sun Sep 14, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 58
Views: 7359
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