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Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

Changing an allocation in part due to valuation is not necessarily 'market timing'. That's precisely what market timing is. Then it's turning 'market timing' into a scare word which loses its meaning, because it's clearly irrational to strictly exclude valuations from allocation decisions. Search t...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

No less a soul than Father Jack himself has changed allocations based, at least in part, on the assessment of market valuations. He moved from 80% to 25% in one swell foop. Check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ra5POdsYg&index=2&list=FLGVD_BiiSQfZZztsFvzSK1g No less a soul than ...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

Search this forum. Read through the bogleheads guide and several other key "boglehead" books. A common theme is that one should set their AA based on their own need, desire, and ability to take risk. That's it. Period. They should not adjust their AA based on what market is doing - based ...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: Questions for Landlords

Add $10 to each months rent to cover the final clean up. Then you pay it. At that point - you don't have to go through the stress of checking to see if it was cleaned by the renter. Getting frustrated if it wasn't. Withholding cleaning deposits and then having renters sue you in small claims court o...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Questions for Landlords
Replies: 20
Views: 855

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

Changing an allocation in part due to valuation is not necessarily 'market timing'. That's precisely what market timing is. Then it's turning 'market timing' into a scare word which loses its meaning, because it's clearly irrational to strictly exclude valuations from allocation decisions. Search t...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: How to safely sell a big ticket item online

If it's really that much of a concern, close the transaction as follows: 1. Go to the Buyer's Bank. 2. Open your own account. 3. Go to teller window with buyer 4. Do a Xfer via teller directly from buyers account to your account within the same bank (in that case there is not opportunity for "b...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to safely sell a big ticket item online
Replies: 30
Views: 1222

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

Had I lost $5000, I never would have tried the endeavor again. Buy hard to go against a company named #1 in MIT's "smartest companies list. I also knew from engineering friend that 3-D printing is wave of future FARO and ILMN were solid bets ITMN was a chance: only 1-product company! SouthWest...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 48
Views: 5769

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

A new study using CAPE ratios estimates that there is a high probability that the U.S. stock market will experience a 30% drawdown within the next 5 years. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2470935 Many foreign developed and emerging markets are at better valuations, and should pro...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: strategy to get brokerage bonuses

Keep it simple applies to the logistics of investing - not only the portfolio itself. Financial institutions: make mistakes with transfers, missplace cost basis on xfer. Only takes correcting one of these mistakes to generate a enough time and phone call follow ups to totally consume any benefit. E...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: strategy to get brokerage bonuses
Replies: 50
Views: 2857

Re: strategy to get brokerage bonuses

Fewer movements, fewer transactions, fewer opportunities for error. I'll go through a bit of complexity to net thousands of dollars. I won't. It only takes one problem and hours of beating ones head against the wall to fix it. That time and frustration can easily eat up a couple thousand dollars wo...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: strategy to get brokerage bonuses
Replies: 50
Views: 2857

Re: strategy to get brokerage bonuses

but the bit about the signature is just pretty bogus as I've never experienced it and in fact the only custodian I hear of that is into that is Vanguard. Bogus. I had a huge headache moving from ML to Vanguard due to signature guarantees. Do a search of this forum and you will see many, many folks ...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: strategy to get brokerage bonuses
Replies: 50
Views: 2857

Re: Schwab Windhaven Funds vs Vanguard 3 Funds

Way too complicated. Select an Asset Allocation. Sell 100% of the Windhaven stuff. Fully invest in the new AA at either Schwab or Vanguard. This concern over VG "availability" vs Schwab is unfounded. Once the AA is set up - there are very few "emergencies" that can't wait until t...
by leonard
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Windhaven Funds vs Vanguard 3 Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 1732

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

A new study using CAPE ratios estimates that there is a high probability that the U.S. stock market will experience a 30% drawdown within the next 5 years. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2470935 Many foreign developed and emerging markets are at better valuations, and should pro...
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: Where to put money while waiting for 401k

Save enough cash to pay your bills in December and contribute your whole paycheck to the 401k in December. Reset to your normal pace in January. You may not be allowed to contribute the whole paycheck. Usually there is a maximum percentage for 401k contributions. It can never be 100% anyway because...
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put money while waiting for 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 373

Re: Where to put money while waiting for 401k

Bogleheads, I've been with my employer for just over a year and will be eligible to participate in their 401k plan starting in December (the only matching will be at the employer's discretion). I'm maxing my Roth IRA with monthly contributions and have an extra ~$1,500 / month to save. I've been pu...
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put money while waiting for 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 373

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

A new study using CAPE ratios estimates that there is a high probability that the U.S. stock market will experience a 30% drawdown within the next 5 years. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2470935 Many foreign developed and emerging markets are at better valuations, and should pro...
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 36
Views: 2335

Re: strategy to get brokerage bonuses

Sounds like a monsterous headache - especially if something (who knows what) goes wrong. What headache? Keep it simple applies to the logistics of investing - not only the portfolio itself. Financial institutions: make mistakes with transfers, missplace cost basis on xfer. Only takes correcting one...
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: strategy to get brokerage bonuses
Replies: 50
Views: 2857

Re: strategy to get brokerage bonuses

Sounds like a monsterous headache - especially if something (who knows what) goes wrong.
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: strategy to get brokerage bonuses
Replies: 50
Views: 2857

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

Hmmmm....having trouble with the math and algebra reconciling this approach with the numbers here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=145439 So, are individual stocks $5k as stated here in this thread or $50k as stated in the other thread? And if $5k of your individual stocks be...
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 48
Views: 5769

Re: Husband rear-ended, driver ignoring his insurance

The point of insurance is to handle this situation. I have no idea why this would become this much of a research project and sleuthing as it seems to.
by leonard
Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Husband rear-ended, driver ignoring his insurance
Replies: 39
Views: 3497

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

Hello, I have approximately $50 million in cash from the recent sale of my business. Trying to figure out what to do with this cash is extremely stressful and dizzying. I have spoken with the major "high net worth" wealth management firms such as JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S Trust,...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 14952

Re: My Wife's 401k is expensive.

I have been going back and forth with my wife's 401k advisor at ameriprise trying to prove that his high cost funds (100-250 basis points, 1%-2.5%, both equity and bond funds) do not benefit my wife's retirement investments, and actually cost her more in the long run. I have asked why there are no ...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Wife's 401k is expensive.
Replies: 23
Views: 1418

Re: What is your experience managing a 8 or 9 digit portfoli

The asset allocation math works the same at $10M as it does at $1k.

At $10M - I would start looking at investing in institutional shares at VG.
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your experience managing a 8 or 9 digit portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 2130

Re: Telling my friends I paid off my house was a mistake.

Undo it by telling them you took out another mortgage on your house.
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Telling my friends I paid off my house was a mistake.
Replies: 73
Views: 9330

Re: My New Car Buying Tips

I am not willing to turn this into a new used/new car debate, but I will say that when you purchase a used car, there is always a risk that you get a poorly maintained car, and sometimes poor maintenance may not show in inspections. And, with new, outright lemons and a laundry list of recalls from ...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My New Car Buying Tips
Replies: 88
Views: 11414

Re: Motorcycle for short commute?

When I rode, my biggest worry was not my own driving habits, but that of those around me (who often did not see me). My only accident on the street (I had several on the track) was when a truck made an illegal u-turn and ran me into a ditch, they simply never saw me. Yep, you have to assume that ev...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motorcycle for short commute?
Replies: 63
Views: 3692

Re: What if there were only index funds?

A "fun" theoretical question: what would happen to "the market" if there were only index funds? No actively managed funds, no individual stock ownership, and the only way to participate in the market is by buying index mutual funds or ETFs. When a company goes IPO it would get a...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if there were only index funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1755

Re: Zegna Suits

ResearchMed wrote:I'm not quite sure why so many here seem to think so many decisions are driven by what "others" would think.


Well, by definition if one is asking for feedback on a forum - they must care what others think. Otherwise - they wouldn't ask what others think in their question.
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zegna Suits
Replies: 195
Views: 6965

Re: Motorcycle for short commute?

There are two types of motorcycle riders, those that have already laid there bikes down, and those that are going to. Have heard this statement many times. Have NEVER heard or read actual statistics to back it up. As someone who practically grew up on two wheels, here is the best you are likely to ...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motorcycle for short commute?
Replies: 63
Views: 3692

Re: My New Car Buying Tips

Also, they have significant information that the buyer doesn't have on pricing. I know we believe that the internet has changed all that - but in my one attempt to buy a new car a few years ago - it was clear I simply didn't have access to the true margins they are operating with. Average private p...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My New Car Buying Tips
Replies: 88
Views: 11414

Re: Motorcycle for short commute?

StevieG72 wrote:There are two types of motorcycle riders, those that have already laid there bikes down, and those that are going to.


Have heard this statement many times. Have NEVER heard or read actual statistics to back it up.
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motorcycle for short commute?
Replies: 63
Views: 3692

Re: Zegna Suits

If someone is going to judge me - positively or negatively - based on whether I am wearing a $4.5k suit - not really interested in their opinion to begin with. 99% of the population won't be able to tell the difference between a $4.5k suit and a $1k suit (let alone a $500 suit). If they can tell the...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zegna Suits
Replies: 195
Views: 6965

Re: My New Car Buying Tips

New Car dealers sell hundreds of cars a year. They have very effectively pointed the sales floor at the internet. They deal with the unique exceptions around all their models and all the financing options multiple times. Also, they have significant information that the buyer doesn't have on pricing....
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My New Car Buying Tips
Replies: 88
Views: 11414

Re: Favorite guitarist...

What this post reveals is not so much who is the best guitarist of all times, but rather the homogeneity of the Bogleheads sample group. Were all of the best guitarists of all times rock or blues musicians who did their best work between the late sixties and the early 80s? Admittedly, there are som...
by leonard
Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite guitarist...
Replies: 207
Views: 21098

Re: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers

Making this way to complex. Every year you keep your money with these people you could be retiring a year earlier - due to the AUM. Can your spouse really not see that? I think a bigger issue would be a spouse that views $30k as not significant. That might be the starting point. This was, indeed, o...
by leonard
Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers
Replies: 111
Views: 8456

Re: Favorite guitarist...

What this post reveals is not so much who is the best guitarist of all times, but rather the homogeneity of the Bogleheads sample group. Were all of the best guitarists of all times rock or blues musicians who did their best work between the late sixties and the early 80s? Admittedly, there are som...
by leonard
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite guitarist...
Replies: 207
Views: 21098

Re: Favorite guitarist...

Have to add to my response several years ago

Scotty Anderson

Incredible.
by leonard
Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite guitarist...
Replies: 207
Views: 21098

Re: Convincing fears on investing for now?

It does in fact appear that you could care less. Trying to time the market based on: 1. Fed Policy. 2. GDP current and expected. 3. PE and Valuation Measures. 4. National Debt numbers. It's been posted a thousand times on this forum "I know I can't time this market, but how do I time this marke...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convincing fears on investing for now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3290

Re: Motorcycle for short commute?

I wouldn't do it, for one reason: Motorcycles are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, perhaps 30x as dangerous as cars per mile driven/ridden. (Edit: I see others have mentioned this already...) Motorcycles are more dangerous than cars. But, I think the danger - as represented by statistics - is overstated. Becau...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Motorcycle for short commute?
Replies: 63
Views: 3692

Re: In-Law Financial Issues (long)

Define with your spouse a limit to how much you will contribute financially for their retirement. Could be $0, could be a lifetime max. Doesn't matter as long as you have a clear agreement on what you will contribute to them. Then, let them live their life. Grown adults can do whatever they want. Th...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In-Law Financial Issues (long)
Replies: 44
Views: 4142

Re: Alarm company wants me to waive rights

The insurance company only has a "right" of subrogation if the homeowner has a "right" to collect from the alarm company. So a homeowner's contractual waiver of the right to collect from the alarm company destroys the insurance company's "right" to subrogation. In othe...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alarm company wants me to waive rights
Replies: 13
Views: 1118

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

Naw. Realized a long time ago that I can't predict the future.
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 7937

Re: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?

Use index funds.
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index vs American Funds?
Replies: 33
Views: 3176

Re: Alarm company wants me to waive rights

The insurance company only has a "right" of subrogation if the homeowner has a "right" to collect from the alarm company. So a homeowner's contractual waiver of the right to collect from the alarm company destroys the insurance company's "right" to subrogation. In othe...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alarm company wants me to waive rights
Replies: 13
Views: 1118

Re: Bankrolled Her Brother, Regrets It (article)

The writer should have had a clear idea of what the outcome of yet more money would be. Why would she have expected anything different? Enabling does not help anyone. These "gifts","loans", and "helping out" are simply enabling. Enablers don't have a right to be disappo...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bankrolled Her Brother, Regrets It (article)
Replies: 24
Views: 3929

Re: Alarm company wants me to waive rights

How exactly can a customer waive the rights of an insurance company - just because they are a customer of that company? How does that make any sense? Since we are in charge of our insurance companies, I just imagined that my insurance company owes me $2M. I'll let everyone here know when I receive t...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alarm company wants me to waive rights
Replies: 13
Views: 1118

Re: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers

Making this way to complex.

Every year you keep your money with these people you could be retiring a year earlier - due to the AUM. Can your spouse really not see that? I think a bigger issue would be a spouse that views $30k as not significant. That might be the starting point.
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spouse not ready to cut ties with financial advisers
Replies: 111
Views: 8456

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

Lately I have noticed the following (paraphrased) advice given about TD funds: For simplicity, invest in a TD fund but don't go by date, instead pick one with an AA that matches your risk tolerance. This seems to me to be bad advice because when you pick an AA you are also picking a glide path. If ...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5913

Re: Selling 401k questions

I think it would be worthwhile to reframe the question as "I need to get X amount of money for a personal reason. What is the lowest total cost source for that money - bank loan, relative loan, downsizing real estate, credit cards, emergency fund, moving to lower rent housing, downsizing car, c...
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling 401k questions
Replies: 11
Views: 598

Re: Is buying two SUVs a sane/good financial move?

So, for a poor driver, the solution is to buy a bigger vehicle that keeps them safe but will inflict more damage on the non-poor driver. Keeping this from being locked, I will just characterize this as a classic economic externality.
by leonard
Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is buying two SUVs a sane/good financial move?
Replies: 63
Views: 3698
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