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by larryswedroe
Tue May 26, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book recommendation
Replies: 6
Views: 873

Re: Book recommendation

I'd recommend for anyone, and certainly if within 15 years of retirement, or even longer. Getting things right in first place is very important
Larry
by larryswedroe
Tue May 26, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First in four part series on four big bank active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1134

Re: First in four part series on four big bank active funds

k66
Always show net returns as they are only kind you get to keep
Larry
by larryswedroe
Mon May 25, 2015 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book recommendation
Replies: 6
Views: 873

Book recommendation

I was asked to consider writing a blurb by Jim Lange for his third edition of Retire Secure. I spent today reading the book and wanted to highly recommend it to everyone here. While addressing the many complex issues related to retirement planning, the book is very readable, and provides examples th...
by larryswedroe
Mon May 25, 2015 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 50
Views: 4604

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Spidey
The "Larry Portfolio" is uses the very same principles as Taleb, with most of the investments in basically riskless (or near riskless) investments, and the rest in the highest expected returning equity asset class--small value stocks.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Mon May 25, 2015 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4304

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Dug up a list of some pieces on dividend paying strategies I wrote for CBS a while back Thought it might be helpful http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57583663/why-invest-in-stocks-with-a-high-dividend-yield/ http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57555994/why-a-high-dividend-strategy-is-dangero...
by larryswedroe
Mon May 25, 2015 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First in four part series on four big bank active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1134

Re: First in four part series on four big bank active funds

I always use in all cases the lowest cost share basis available, for consistency purposes.
So for Vanguard, use Admiral shares (where have been available for the full period)
Larry
by larryswedroe
Sat May 23, 2015 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 63
Views: 4304

another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-no-refuge-dividend-stocks Valuations do matter and popularity isn't good for an investment strategy as can change its very nature. If we get a bear market those who moved from safe bonds to dividend paying stocks as substitutes will be badly...
by larryswedroe
Fri May 22, 2015 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the world is "upside down"
Replies: 5
Views: 1309

the world is "upside down"

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-2

Another example of why discipline is so important

hope you find it helpful
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed May 20, 2015 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at study using R-Squared to predict returns of funds
Replies: 9
Views: 951

a look at study using R-Squared to predict returns of funds

We are seeing lots of work on this, for example active share, personally I don't think there's much if anything there
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-magical-metric-isnt?nopaging=1

Hope you find of interest
Larry
by larryswedroe
Tue May 19, 2015 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First in four part series on four big bank active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1134

First in four part series on four big bank active funds

In an April column, New York Times reporter Nathaniel Popper noted that, over the last few years, an expanding line of mutual funds created by the likes of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have been drawing billions of dollars from investors looking to earn a good return...
by larryswedroe
Mon May 18, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at why it's important to globally diversify
Replies: 9
Views: 1440

Another look at why it's important to globally diversify

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-diversify-globally-limit-risk?nopaging=1

The Credit Suisse Annual Handbook is a great read with the articles from Dimson, Marsh and Staunton

Hope you find this piece helpful
Larry
by larryswedroe
Fri May 15, 2015 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts on Forbes article Active vs Passive which is better?
Replies: 13
Views: 1595

Re: My thoughts on Forbes article Active vs Passive which is better?

bottom line First, you can see the active vs. passive on bonds in the semi annual SPIVA reports. Pretty simple. And of course it's all William Sharpe's math of active investing. In aggregate active must lose. Second, same thing holds for international. You can see the results in The Incredible Shrin...
by larryswedroe
Fri May 15, 2015 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts on Forbes article Active vs Passive which is better?
Replies: 13
Views: 1595

Re: My thoughts on Forbes article Active vs Passive which is better?

Tom Yes and it triggered me to do an analysis of their funds, which should be up live next Friday at ETF.com And the whole premise of the article, re active share, IMO doesn't hold water. Here's my thoughts and the research on the issue http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-disse...
by larryswedroe
Fri May 15, 2015 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts on Forbes article Active vs Passive which is better?
Replies: 13
Views: 1595

My thoughts on Forbes article Active vs Passive which is better?

Thought the Bogleheads would find this piece of interest. It discusses many of the flaws in arguments you hear favoring active management

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-active-arguments-disproved?nopaging=1

Best wishes
Larry
by larryswedroe
Mon May 11, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 50
Views: 4604

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

mpt Actually it's more important (beneficial) for those in retirement where cutting tail risk importance increases due to order of returns matters more. Thus more important to not have big losses early. So you want to find ways to cut the tail risk. And I can tell you that those in retirement when 2...
by larryswedroe
Fri May 01, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the missing value premium
Replies: 34
Views: 3334

the missing value premium

Have gotten many questions about this so wrote the following which thought would be of interest to the Bogleheads http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-0 Best wishes Larry PS in case not aware those who are interested in my musings you can also find them at mutualfunds.com
by larryswedroe
Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Analysis of TIAA-CREF Active vs. DFA and Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 935

Re: Analysis of TIAA-CREF Active vs. DFA and Vanguard

fwiw I listed all the funds that had the full period results, which for example TILGX a fund suggested by woofwoof doesn't have. So it wasn't included because doesn't have 10 year results. No cherry picking to support some predisposed hypothesis. I chose a closest comparable fund, Even giving TIAA b...
by larryswedroe
Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My first quarter review of 2015's sure things
Replies: 12
Views: 3069

My first quarter review of 2015's sure things

I know many of found these to be of interest so here's the link http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-%E2%80%98sure-things%E2%80%99-that-didn%E2%80%99t-pan-out-in-qtr And interested can follow my musings at ETF.com and find the collection of posts in the sections tab under index ...
by larryswedroe
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4374

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

I am writing regularly for three sites http://www.etf.com/ including column today, usually three times a week and can find all the columns here http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner if interested in looking back I also write for http://www.mutualfunds.com And also for Advisor Perspective...
by larryswedroe
Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought you might enjoy taking this quiz
Replies: 3
Views: 1308

Thought you might enjoy taking this quiz

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-take-quiz-on-who-said-what

Hope you find it interesting

Best wishes
Larry

PS_ still follow the board and answer PMs so if have questions feel free to PM or email
by larryswedroe
Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

CFM I don't see anything inconsistent either. Leeraar Again I don't see anything inconsistent with what we wrote in the article and what I have said here. I have clearly stated that finance/economics isn't like the physical sciences but that you can apply the basic principles of the scientific metho...
by larryswedroe
Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

fyi
Would add that turnover might not be as high as one might think because of netting of positions. By that I mean let's say a stock would be a buy based on value factor but a sell based on momentum factor. The fund would net the two positions and not trade.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

oneleaf
Sorry don't know the answer to that one.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

First let me say that IMO there is plenty of evidence supporting the existence of the premiums, as I have stated, both persistently and pervasively. If one wants for example read the paper Value and Momentum Everywhere http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2174501 If there are people wh...
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

afan Why do you ignore the repeated statements about the past data on long short funds being irrelevant as they have nothing to do with this strategy as they are active and not passive funds? That's why it should be ignored. It's as I said like drawing conclusions about Vanguard index funds from act...
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Afan To repeat, you cannot use the real world experience of ACTIVE funds and come to conclusions about what a passive fund would have done, which is what you are doing. So we don't agree. I tried to make that clear. This fund is passive, not active. Second, I don't expect the fund to change strategy...
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it's important to understand risks and have discipline
Replies: 11
Views: 1441

Re: Why it's important to understand risks and have discipli

Leif That's fine, only suggest that you consider that if you don't tilt you have a big "bet" on beta. The Larry Portfolio is diversified by geography just as much as Total Market Portfolio and is more diversified by sources of returns than typical portfolio which are typically concentrated...
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Robert
Thanks for the analysis, what it shows is basically what I have stated that roughly you get about half the premiums from the long and half from the short side. Not surprising since the factors are long-short.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it's important to understand risks and have discipline
Replies: 11
Views: 1441

Re: Why it's important to understand risks and have discipli

Professor
Completely agree that there is difference, this is what Knight talked about.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Two Key Lessons You Can Learn From Academic Research"
Replies: 10
Views: 2115

Re: "Two Key Lessons You Can Learn From Academic Research"

Methedras
Diversification across factors has the same logic as diversification across asset classes that you refer to rightly as that "free lunch"-- if you have factors that are truly unique/independent and have premiums
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

backpaper First of course I have nothing to do with DFA marketing material (:-)) I would add that the two top investment officers at DFA are scientists, Eduardo Repetto and Gerard O'Reilly. Second, there are physical sciences and social sciences, IMO finance, economics are social sciences and rightl...
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Victoria I certainly agree with your last point about society. In fact I have had that very conversation with some of them----I understand why they might want to apply their skills to make money sufficient to have a good lifestyle and financial security, but once they have already won that game why ...
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Protoganist
FWIW, as I said I know many physicists and other scientists and mathematicians who would disagree with your conclusions and those of Victoria. Which is fine, people can disagree.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

AFan IMO you are off base on some of these points First, long short strategies you refer to are almost all ACTIVE funds, based on individual's opinions. This fund has nothing to do with it as it is passively managed in sense it is implemented in transparent and systemic way so it can be replicated. ...
by larryswedroe
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Hypothesis: Value stocks have a higher expected sharp ratio than the total market in any give year. Null-Hyopthesis: Value stocks do not have a higher expected sharp ratio than the total market in any give year. The question IMO should be do value stocks have a higher expected return, not higher Sh...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Protagonist Those who focus solely on expenses miss out on superior vehicles IMO. The only time expenses should be ONLY consideration is when things being considered are commodities, like an S&P 500 fund. But yes one has to make judgments about what is sufficient evidence to justify investment s...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

PJW I never attacked your personal judgment and sorry if you think I did and sorry if you think I deflected and I never mind discussions about issues as I hope I have demonstrated over the years. But I don't see any point in the discussing it further,. and as I noted I know physicists, other scienti...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

FWIW, this argument is so off base. Just because investing isn't exact physical science doesn't mean the same tools and principles cannot be applied and add value in decision making. Of course one must be "humble" about the outputs, understanding that they are only the best estimates of wh...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

afan Sorry but there are no ways to obtain the exposures you get in this fund for 1/15 the price. You get beta and that's it for that price I was trying to show that you get more value than if you paid 1.5% for a long only fund. To me so many people are so focused on expenses that they cannot see va...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 21101

Re: Small cap value premium

JoMoney Right, except if it's just stupidity or "behavioral" people will wise up sooner or later Not necessarily correct. One explanation is that there are investors who have a preference for positively skewed assets in spite of the lower expected returns. To them it's a rational preferenc...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 41366

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Few thoughts First, if you had a long only portfolio you would have $1,000 invested and have loading (or exposure to) of about one half of the factor and expense of 1.5% Here you have $,1000 of long exposure and $1,000 of short giving you a loading of 1 on the factor for the 1.5% expense. Clearly wh...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Alpha is getting more elusive
Replies: 28
Views: 4108

Re: Why Alpha is getting more elusive

RandomWalker
Actually there are those individual investors who think the market is inefficient and make it inefficient, overpaying for these lottery type stocks, while limits to arbitrage, institutional constraints, and fear and costs of shorting allow the inefficiency to continue
Larry
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do individual investors buy overpriced stocks
Replies: 5
Views: 1060

Re: why do individual investors buy overpriced stocks

great2beoutdoors First, these Lottery stocks or jackpots are all relatively small parts of market, so not going to have too much effect on TSM portfolio. Second, one of benefits of indexing is simplicity and no tracking error. Once you have exclusions you will have tracking error and have to explain...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 21101

Re: Small cap value premium

asif FWIW, IMO that is the biggest benefit of tilting, allowing one to cut potential dispersion of returns and because of the correlations you tend to cut the left tail risk more than the right tail. Reason being that in bad times high quality bonds tend to do well, but in good times they don't nece...
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do individual investors buy overpriced stocks
Replies: 5
Views: 1060

Re: why do individual investors buy overpriced stocks

Call me op
That is exactly the behavioral argument, people overpay for growth stocks persistently. And the biggest anomaly is small unprofitable companies

Larry
by larryswedroe
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Alpha is getting more elusive
Replies: 28
Views: 4108

Re: Why Alpha is getting more elusive

simple AS I said IMO it's total garbage Correlations have both risen and fallen over the last two decades and yet alpha continues to shrink. And correlations are not really the important issue anyway as it's more about dispersion of returns and every year there are massive dispersions of returns amo...

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