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Re: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?

Rodc wrote:
Just to be clear, my intent was to back you up. My response was to mlewis.


Yep, understood (both now and when I replied).
by kenyan
Thu May 23, 2013 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?
Replies: 93
Views: 4082

Re: RBD (Really Bad Day)

Did anything end up down more than 2.5% today? I didn't see anything, but I'm only looking at the few things I already own. Vanguard Pacific (VPL) for those slicing international a bit: -2.78% Ooh, with Intraday Indicative Value at more than 4% down for tomorrow. I must admit that I don't have any ...
by kenyan
Thu May 23, 2013 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD (Really Bad Day)
Replies: 31
Views: 2731

Re: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?

Isn't rebalancing "market timing?" Everyone has their own definition, but 'market timing' is generally accepted to be an action based upon one's prediction of the future movement of markets. Rebalancing, in most cases, does not qualify - it's a mathematically predetermined action that doe...
by kenyan
Thu May 23, 2013 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?
Replies: 93
Views: 4082

Re: RBD

Sheepdog wrote:A RBD are for those living in storm damaged communities in Oklahoma this week and Texas last week.


That might be a RBW, RBM, or RBY actually.
by kenyan
Thu May 23, 2013 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD (Really Bad Day)
Replies: 31
Views: 2731

Re: Global markets in turmoil

If your funds have a corresponding ETF, track its price to get a good idea of how much your mutual funds will be down at the end of the day. Use those totals to do your rebalancing math.
by kenyan
Thu May 23, 2013 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global markets in turmoil
Replies: 17
Views: 1496

Re: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?

Isn't rebalancing "market timing?" Everyone has their own definition, but 'market timing' is generally accepted to be an action based upon one's prediction of the future movement of markets. Rebalancing, in most cases, does not qualify - it's a mathematically predetermined action that doe...
by kenyan
Thu May 23, 2013 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?
Replies: 93
Views: 4082

Re: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?

Everything is bad right now. The US market is frothy. Japan has been soaring. Small Value has risen too much. Dividend stocks are in a bubble. REITs are overvalued. Nominal bonds have terrible yields and are about to crash. TIPS have negative real yields. Cash is earning zero nominal. CDs are at all...
by kenyan
Thu May 23, 2013 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you adjust your AA based on valuations?
Replies: 93
Views: 4082

Re: treasuries vs. online savings accounts

I get the sense that correlation with stocks should be roughly the same: zero for the savings account, and close to zero for the treasury (?), though of course the treasury is more volatile and complex to analyze. Historically, safer bonds have correlated near-zero with the stock market, but in rec...
by kenyan
Wed May 22, 2013 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: treasuries vs. online savings accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 1302

Re: treasuries vs. online savings accounts

I get the sense that correlation with stocks should be roughly the same: zero for the savings account, and close to zero for the treasury (?), though of course the treasury is more volatile and complex to analyze. Historically, safer bonds have correlated near-zero with the stock market, but in rec...
by kenyan
Wed May 22, 2013 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: treasuries vs. online savings accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 1302

Re: treasuries vs. online savings accounts

north star, IMO even under $250,000 Treasuries are slightly higher credit quality. The FDIC does not have enough money set aside to cover multiple large bank failures. It is highly likely that congress would act to save the depositors, but that would take legal action. The issue might turn into a p...
by kenyan
Wed May 22, 2013 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: treasuries vs. online savings accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 1302

Re: I'm Bullish on Bonds

Assuming at least another few percent left in this stock market rally, I'll have to rebalance into bonds soon. It won't taste good, but I'll do it.
by kenyan
Wed May 22, 2013 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Bullish on Bonds
Replies: 83
Views: 6259

Re: The Best 529 Plans - Allan Roth

As pointed out above, Allan's article contains a factual error with respect to the NY plan. It contains a Developed Market International Fund; it only lacks Emerging Markets.

edit - ok, I see the caveat. I think that's an odd way to look at things, though.
by kenyan
Wed May 22, 2013 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Best 529 Plans - Allan Roth
Replies: 26
Views: 1497

Innovation - a mutual fund that invests in hedge funds

Brought to you by Goldman Sachs: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/22/goldman-hedge-funds/?iid=HP_LN "Goldman says the lack of access to hedge funds has left many investors with little exposure to alternative investments in their "retirement accounts." Says Goldman's Jason Gottli...
by kenyan
Wed May 22, 2013 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Innovation - a mutual fund that invests in hedge funds
Replies: 1
Views: 227

Re: $550M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?

I found that online resources report federal tax on lottery winnings is 25%. State taxes vary, California is 0%. Ordinary income tax. California tax is only zero on its own state lottery. Since Powerball is not a CA state lottery, the top tax rate of 13.3% will apply. a. California Lottery Winnings...
by kenyan
Fri May 17, 2013 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $600M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?
Replies: 86
Views: 4506

Re: Bond Duration change in regards to interest expectation?

Despite how many experts have joined the chorus against intermediate bonds, they've been wrong year after year, from about 2010 on (when the chant initially became much louder IMO). It is a form of market timing, and they've timed wrong. Of course, if they keep saying it, they will eventually be rig...
by kenyan
Fri May 17, 2013 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Duration change in regards to interest expectation?
Replies: 25
Views: 993

Re: Vanguard Should Have Passive Funds, Without Indexes

Like a Costco that will charge you larger and larger membership fees depending upon how wealthy you are.
by kenyan
Fri May 17, 2013 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Should Have Passive Funds, Without Indexes
Replies: 13
Views: 1192

Re: $550M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?

So sad. Majority of people who chase this nonsense do not practice simple investing. IMO, when the odds of winning are about 1 in 175 million and the cash value is $350 million, it's not clear that it is nonsense to purchase a ticket. Of course the real reason I purchase a ticket is so I can "...
by kenyan
Fri May 17, 2013 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $600M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?
Replies: 86
Views: 4506

Re: 100% equities, anyone?

Bonds don't look like a great investment at this time, but that will only hold true if there is no stock crash in the future. Actually, no. What will happen to the value of your bond holdings when interest rates go up? They will decline, most likely modestly as long as duration is controlled. The e...
by kenyan
Thu May 16, 2013 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities, anyone?
Replies: 138
Views: 7669

Re: buying bank IRA CDs with IRA money

Here is how I think it works: It depends upon where your IRA is held. If you hold an IRA with a bank, you can probably buy IRA CDs from that bank. If your IRA is held with a broker such as Vanguard, it's not so simple. You couldn't just go buy an Ally Bank CD and stick it in your Vanguard IRA. You c...
by kenyan
Thu May 16, 2013 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: buying bank IRA CDs with IRA money
Replies: 6
Views: 229

Re: Emerging Market Bond Fund is available

They seem similar, but the effect of the purchase fee is to lower the expense ratio, benefiting all investors. Vanguard uses them at times for funds that they wish to discourage frequent trading - likely for asset classes that carry high transactional costs - as this cost structure will disproportio...
by kenyan
Thu May 16, 2013 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Fund is available
Replies: 75
Views: 4254

Re: Active versus Passive

However, I am looking for the select one or two that have done well over more than a decade, in spite of changes in economy, markets, and perhaps even managers, primarily due to the philosophy and approach of fund management by that company. I thought a chart comparison of real returns would simpli...
by kenyan
Mon May 13, 2013 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active versus Passive
Replies: 28
Views: 1510

Re: Vanguard 529 Plan or PA 529 or other?

The NY 529 plan is 0.17% regardless of investment choice, with no other fees. I don't think anyone should worry about those fees. As for the options - there isn't a small-value or international small cap if that matters to you, but this is consistent with most plans. One thing I don't like is that t...
by kenyan
Mon May 13, 2013 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard 529 Plan or PA 529 or other?
Replies: 21
Views: 870

Re: Cash versus bonds-Why not?

Why not? Because the expected return is lower. You're trading expected return for lower risk. Sound familiar? Interest rate rises are a boon for the long-term fixed-income investor, not something to be dreaded. As discussed above, capital losses in bonds are temporary (unless the bonds default), and...
by kenyan
Mon May 13, 2013 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash versus bonds-Why not?
Replies: 50
Views: 3551

Re: How aggresively should I invest leftover 529 money?

I don't see any problem with going extremely aggressive. If you wish to throw in a smattering of bonds to smooth its growth a bit, that's fine as well.
by kenyan
Mon May 13, 2013 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How aggresively should I invest leftover 529 money?
Replies: 20
Views: 1007

Re: 401K no index funds?

I would go ahead and lobby for some index fund choices. There is a section in the wiki discussing how to try to improve your employer's play. In the meantime, your plan is fine and you should not hesitate to invest. I would likely favor your IRA after receiving your match, but after maxing out your ...
by kenyan
Mon May 13, 2013 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K no index funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1504

Re: Daily Rebalancing vs. Expenses

It depends upon what your goal is with rebalancing. If it is to maintain a risk profile, then daily would be best. Beyond that, it's really just personal preference; the real effect on your portfolio will be small if you do it once a month. Consider this - if your equities have a bad month, down 10%...
by kenyan
Fri May 03, 2013 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Daily Rebalancing vs. Expenses
Replies: 5
Views: 359

Re: How many investments do you own? (clarification below)

16 spread out among 9 different accounts (2x 529, taxable, 6 retirement accounts). Technically 18, but two share class overlaps.
by kenyan
Thu May 02, 2013 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many investments do you own? (clarification below)
Replies: 64
Views: 2690

Re: Do the Bogleheads here tithe based on net or gross salar

I've talked to a few people who were on boards of churches to see what percent of people tithe. From the (small) sample size I got, one church was around 5% and the other one was a little bit higher than that. It appears that a popular amount is around the 2-3% level. The 2% level is like putting $...
by kenyan
Thu May 02, 2013 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do the Bogleheads here tithe based on net or gross salary?
Replies: 49
Views: 2802

Re: Reported Returns... Do they include expense ratio

The answer to your question is yes, as noted above. One additional note is that they generally do not include Loads, when applicable (which they aren't in your case). If you look up a Loaded fund on morningstar, the Load is ignored in the chart. If you look up that fund on the company's website, the...
by kenyan
Thu May 02, 2013 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reported Returns... Do they include expense ratio
Replies: 5
Views: 602

Re: Tsp and Roth IRA

Well...you can move all of your accounts to Vanguard, but you can't combine IRAs between yourself and your wife. They are Individual Retirement Accounts.
by kenyan
Thu May 02, 2013 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tsp and Roth IRA
Replies: 19
Views: 808

Re: Do the Bogleheads here tithe based on net or gross salar

We don't tithe. However, in my "thought experiments" of increasing our giving rates, I've used net. The reason (again, in my head) is that we don't itemize deductions. Of course, if we actually tithed, then we'd itemize...so I'm not sure. I think I would probably use net, but aspire to eve...
by kenyan
Thu May 02, 2013 11:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do the Bogleheads here tithe based on net or gross salary?
Replies: 49
Views: 2802

Re: Your best financial move

livesoft wrote:How about best financial move in the past 4 months?


Stuck to my plan - lived below my means, saved, and followed my IPS. Net worth went up 10% or so despite a new baby at home.
by kenyan
Thu May 02, 2013 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your best financial move
Replies: 98
Views: 6898

Re: What home gym equipment do you have?

Haven't been using mine much lately due to my new routine of skipping a lunch hour/eating at my desk and lifting at the on-site (free) gym. I used a Bowflex XTL for a while, but eventually sold it and switched to a dumbbell workout using Powerblocks. My home gym now consists of said dumbbells, an ad...
by kenyan
Thu May 02, 2013 11:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What home gym equipment do you have?
Replies: 68
Views: 3796

Re: Tsp and Roth IRA

I would definitely look at using the Roth TSP in your case. I assume, like most military, that you have a 0% state tax rate. Between a meager 15% marginal rate and your high guaranteed retirement income through your pension, the Roth is a very attractive option.
by kenyan
Wed May 01, 2013 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tsp and Roth IRA
Replies: 19
Views: 808

Re: Can You Ace FINRA's Financial Literacy Quiz?

I did ace it. I guess that's a good thing, since I had friends stating last week that they just look to me when they have personal finance questions. Agreed that this would be easy for a typical Boglehead, but probably pretty difficult for the average American. My wife is highly intelligent, but doe...
by kenyan
Wed May 01, 2013 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can You Ace FINRA's Financial Literacy Quiz?
Replies: 111
Views: 4646

Re: Precious metals funds/ETF's - is it time to test the wat

I'd be putting money from cash reserves into it for the long term. Probably no more than 1% of total assets now and maybe add more, building upto 3-5% of total assets on dips. I think it's ok to do in your case, as long as you recognize that this is your "play money," which many Boglehead...
by kenyan
Wed May 01, 2013 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Precious metals funds/ETF's - is it time to test the waters?
Replies: 9
Views: 658

Re: Buy a Little More in May?

Let's see -

"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."
- Mark Twain

Yep, May is in there. You're playing with fire!
by kenyan
Tue Apr 30, 2013 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a Little More in May?
Replies: 12
Views: 1853

Re: Umbrella insurance

I need to get umbrella insurance. Already have great disability and term life to cover my family if I kick the bucket or have a stroke etc........ :D Anyway, do most companies require the purchaser to also have their auto or home with them as well? My auto is with Progressive which does not offer u...
by kenyan
Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella insurance
Replies: 39
Views: 4185

Re: Effect of rising rates on Wellington

You really should be determining your desired asset allocation before you start picking funds. You have some of the right ideas, but you're not quite there. 1. Determine your desired stock/bond/cash mix (based upon your risk tolerance, need for income, etc.) 2. Determine your domestic/international ...
by kenyan
Mon Apr 29, 2013 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of rising rates on Wellington
Replies: 11
Views: 1197

Re: Your best financial move

Not buying a house. Victoria Likewise. We were pressured from every direction to buy a SoCal house shortly after starting our careers, from 2006-2007. Thankfully, we decided that if we were going to be priced out forever, so be it - we would be much better off renting and saving. Houses/condos we w...
by kenyan
Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your best financial move
Replies: 98
Views: 6898

Re: Bogleheads' Historical Personal Savings Rate

letsgobobby wrote:also I think it is important to include company contributions/matches in both the numerator and denominator, since it is part of one's total liquid compensation.


I don't like doing that. It makes me feel better not to. :D
by kenyan
Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogleheads' Historical Personal Savings Rate
Replies: 20
Views: 1726

Re: What expenses do you include for your emergency savings?

Personally, I think an e-fund should be sized to reflect that spending will be reduced in an emergency, so I would not include daycare, and would probably not include IRA/529 contributions. We have about a 6 month e-fund, but it would probably only be a 4 month e-fund if we made no changes in spend...
by kenyan
Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What expenses do you include for your emergency savings?
Replies: 18
Views: 1488

Re: fundamental index vs capitalization inxed

Can't say that I'm an expert in these, but from that article it looks to me that these products are just a different way of couching a value tilt, and could easily be replicated by value-tilting your cap-weighted index portfolio (which many people here, including myself, do). Mr. Bogle does not beli...
by kenyan
Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: fundamental index vs capitalization inxed
Replies: 6
Views: 353

Re: yet another mini flash crash Tue Apr 23 2013

Discussion on this issue on a talk radio show this morning - the host kept saying that the market "went into free fall." Come on, a 1% free fall? I think it's interesting that the market responded to a bogus tweet, but that's about it. Wasn't really actionable; if you happened to have some...
by kenyan
Wed Apr 24, 2013 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yet another mini flash crash Tue Apr 23 2013
Replies: 25
Views: 2036

Re: 15 year vs. 30 year for starter home

With a 30 year loan for 5 years in a starter home, you are effectively renting your house from a bank (ie you will not be building much equity). Why not just keep actually renting and not be on the hook for repairs, transaction costs, etc? Save more money and in 5 years buy a better "permanent...
by kenyan
Tue Apr 23, 2013 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 year vs. 30 year for starter home
Replies: 23
Views: 1606

Re: House downpayment savings when time is not known?

We faced a similar situation several years ago, and elected to take some muted risks, given the flexibility in our purchase date (though we live in a high cost area and had to save much more than you). Our allocation has been approximately 10-15% stocks/25-30% bonds/60% cash+CDs. Sure, you can take ...
by kenyan
Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: House downpayment savings when time is not known?
Replies: 5
Views: 581

Re: When to add 30 year bonds to one's portfolio?

I would want a lot more than 5% for buying a 30 year bond, at least 7% probably 8% John Edit, this may interest you http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=102349&hilit=+would+you+market+time John People were afraid to buy 10+% long bonds in the early 1980's. All depends upon w...
by kenyan
Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add 30 year bonds to one's portfolio?
Replies: 34
Views: 1484

Re: Do small cap value tilters need REITs?

I tilt to SCV, and I also use REITs; they offer reasonably low correlation to major stock indices - lower than you can achieve with any combination of value, growth, small, large, domestic, international (emerging or otherwise) as your variables. They're still high risk (and part of my equity alloca...
by kenyan
Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do small cap value tilters need REITs?
Replies: 45
Views: 4565

Re: "interest rates are heading up"

It's also a direct quote from a radio ad run XX-YY-20ZZ (where ZZ = 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13) on any number of stations across the country. I've listened to many of them, and they've all been wrong.
by kenyan
Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "interest rates are heading up"
Replies: 3
Views: 711

Re: how long to DC average in?

I read an article from a DCA advocate a while back that argued that anything longer than 1 year to DCA was very inefficient.

In your case, you're talking about only 20% of your portfolio, and investing it at 78/22%. I would lump it in.
by kenyan
Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how long to DC average in?
Replies: 9
Views: 752
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