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Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

The point to me is not how accurate these projections will be - it is an almost certainty that they will not be accurate. The value in them is as a metric to use for planning. Do you just set the plan and come back in 30 years and hope for the best? No, you adjust your plan, take new numbers into ac...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 58
Views: 5251

Re: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey

But the cap-weighted portfolio is actually tilted -- it is tilted away from the random, monkey, idiot portfolio which should be the logical center of gravity in the first place. Well it is tilted away from the market weight portfolio - but isn't that just the same thing as tilting towards small cap...
by kenschmidt
Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random stock portfolio bogey - beating the monkey
Replies: 70
Views: 3057

Re: The Capitalism Distribution

I think this is one of the best arguments (besides the low cost thing) for owning a broad index fund like total stock market. From the article: 39% of stocks had a negative lifetime total return (2 out of every 5 stocks are a money losing investment) 18.5% of stocks lost at least 75% of their value...
by kenschmidt
Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Capitalism Distribution
Replies: 5
Views: 818

Re: 50 K Credit Card Debt - any suggestions?

You might consider having him get in contact with a credit counseling service. There are non-profits that can help people put together a plan to get themselves out of this kind of mess. For example:

https://www.nfcc.org/index.php
by kenschmidt
Fri Mar 27, 2015 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50 K Credit Card Debt - any suggestions?
Replies: 5
Views: 550

Re: The Capitalism Distribution

I think this is one of the best arguments (besides the low cost thing) for owning a broad index fund like total stock market. From the article: 39% of stocks had a negative lifetime total return (2 out of every 5 stocks are a money losing investment) 18.5% of stocks lost at least 75% of their value ...
by kenschmidt
Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Capitalism Distribution
Replies: 5
Views: 818

Re: Apps for an individual CRM

You could use the built in calendar and contacts apps for the scheduling and keeping track of clients / leads and Evernote might work well for keeping client notes.
by kenschmidt
Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Apps for an individual CRM
Replies: 4
Views: 504

Re: New Furnace & A/C Unit

In fact, even if you wanted to move sooner than that, it might make sense to upgrade as any potential buyer will see the 25 year old system and assume it will need to be replaced soon anyway. Potential buyers would not know the age of the a/c until after inspection (I doubt homebuyers go into attic...
by kenschmidt
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Furnace & A/C Unit
Replies: 16
Views: 1165

Re: Kendrick Lamar: Rapper with Boglehead Principles?

The Beatles broke up???!!! Whaaaaaaat????
by kenschmidt
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kendrick Lamar: Rapper with Boglehead Principles?
Replies: 14
Views: 1522

Re: New Furnace & A/C Unit

When I did mine a couple of years ago, the payback period was in the 6-8 year range. In addition to the efficiency to be gained from a high efficiency furnace and high efficiency (15+ seer AC), there are also efficiencies due to the more modern systems using a DC powered blower fan instead of an AC ...
by kenschmidt
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Furnace & A/C Unit
Replies: 16
Views: 1165

Re: [Neighbor violating HOA rules by using] VBRO and Airbnb

I am the Treasurer of my HOA - it's a small one, but even we have liability insurance that covers all of the officers. I wouldn't serve on the board without it. I think the HOA needs to drive this. I would provide some informal assistance as to what you have observed but in terms of gathering writte...
by kenschmidt
Tue Mar 24, 2015 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Neighbor violating HOA rules by using] VBRO and Airbnb
Replies: 38
Views: 3840

Re: Vanguard Windsor II Fund

I've owned Windsor II since 1998. Based on my somewhat unscientific observations, it trailed the S&P 500 pretty badly in the 1998-2000 time frame. It then outperformed 2000-2007 or so and then I think has been pretty even with the 500 Index since. So it is possible that the timing of your invest...
by kenschmidt
Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Windsor II Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1834

Re: Vanguard Windsor II Fund

About Windsor II: it would appear that the value approach to investing has not compared well to a broad index like the S&P 500 during the time I've owned Windsor II. I am not sure where you are getting your data leading you to this conclusion. Windsor II has significantly outperformed the S&...
by kenschmidt
Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Windsor II Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1834

Re: Five most important things to be a successful investor?

1) Start saving as early as possible - you can never replace time lost
2) Develop an asset allocation and investing plan and stick to it no matter what
3) Keep your costs low
4) Diversify your investments
5) Ignore the noise, the market beaters, the market timers, etc.
by kenschmidt
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five most important things to be a successful investor?
Replies: 31
Views: 3165

Re: Best source for US mint silver proof sets from 2000?

There are a large number of these available on eBay as well if you can't find a local coin store offering them.
by kenschmidt
Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best source for US mint silver proof sets from 2000?
Replies: 5
Views: 767

Re: Do you still use currency or have you gone all-plastic?

I use cash for most transactions under $10 and for some local small businesses, under $25 or so as I know that credit card fees hit them especially hard.
by kenschmidt
Sun Mar 15, 2015 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you still use currency or have you gone all-plastic?
Replies: 47
Views: 3204

Re: Russell 2000 underperformance

The Russell 2000 is susceptible to "front running". Active investors know the criteria for selection of the stocks in the index and also know that the index is recalculated at the same time every year, so they use that information to their advantage to buy or sell stocks in advance of the ...
by kenschmidt
Sun Mar 15, 2015 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 2000 underperformance
Replies: 7
Views: 1121

Re: 86% of investment managers stunk in 2014

I think that the reason why 50% of active managers do not beat index funds in same category is because of..... 1. cost - expense of managing funds 2. cash - active funds probably carry a certain amount of cash for getting in and out of stocks If cost were equal and cash was always zero, I think act...
by kenschmidt
Sun Mar 15, 2015 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 86% of investment managers stunk in 2014
Replies: 22
Views: 2049

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Watched Runaway Train (1985) with Jon Voight and Eric Roberts recently. It's about two prisoners that break out of prison in Alaska, get on a train and the only other person on it, the engineer has a fatal heart attack, so it becomes a "Runaway Train." It may sound formulaic but it's kind...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 655
Views: 86219

Re: Is this portfolio performance abnormally poor?

Be sure that he re-invested all dividends and capital gains while calculating returns. That could affect the numbers also.

A 1% AUM fee is a pretty strong headwind to have to overcome unfortunately.
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should my uncle drop his Financial Adviser?
Replies: 9
Views: 1578

Re: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?

Some people need the services of an advisor. And most advisors don't charge both a front end load and an AUM. Usually either/or. You are probably better paying a front end load than a 1% AUM every year. Any advisor that will sell you American funds is one to avoid. You are definitely much better of...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?
Replies: 50
Views: 5217

Re: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?

I agree with the point you are trying to make. A low cost actively managed fund can be a good investment. But I really don't understand this.... In other words, when it comes to performance, the fact that they are active is irrelevant. Only their additional cost above that of the index fund is impo...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?
Replies: 50
Views: 5217

Re: Nightly Business Report; Indexed vs Active Funds

A good interview, but did anybody notice that Soe, the guy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, never mentions the word "index"? This is even though the interviewers use it often and almost appear to be trying to get him to say it. Closest Soe comes is "low-cost alternative option." Ju...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nightly Business Report; Indexed vs Active Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1530

Re: Post removed or moved?

If I want to post a link to an article, I try to either include a small snippet of the article (like one paragraph) for context, a brief summary of why I think it was interesting, or both. From my perspective, if I just see a link, I tend to just ignore it anyway. I can go to google if I just want l...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:52 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Post removed or moved?
Replies: 12
Views: 1230

Re: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?

I think they were somewhat selective in picking their index benchmarks so that they would cast their funds in the best possible light. Rather than using the S&P 500, if they had used a Midcap Index, which probably better matches the overall cap weighting of American's funds, the results would h...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?
Replies: 50
Views: 5217

Re: Defined-Benefit Retirement Plan

Similar to alec above, my company discontinued its defined benefit pension. I had the option to stay in the plan or switch to a defined contribution plan where they would contribute 6% of salary. New hires receive 5% of salary with no option. I chose to stay in the DB plan. My employer also prints a...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined-Benefit Retirement Plan
Replies: 11
Views: 1122

Re: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?

I think they were somewhat selective in picking their index benchmarks so that they would cast their funds in the best possible light. Rather than using the S&P 500, if they had used a Midcap Index, which probably better matches the overall cap weighting of American's funds, the results would ha...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 14, 2015 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds beats the market 97% of the time?
Replies: 50
Views: 5217

Re: Best 4-6 person tent

Embassy Suites! :D

Former Pack 141, Den 1 Dad. Good times actually, the above is just a joke...
by kenschmidt
Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best 4-6 person tent
Replies: 20
Views: 1139

Re: Vanguard Diehards Alumni

I started posting on the M* Vanguard Diehards forum sometime in 1999.
by kenschmidt
Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Vanguard Diehards Alumni
Replies: 23
Views: 1212

Re: Index Fund Capital Gains Tax, Over the Years

There are really two types of taxes you need to worry about: 1) Capital gains on securities you have sold - so for example, if you invested $1,000 and it grew to $1,200 in two years and you then sold it, you would own capital gains taxes on the $200 difference 2) Capital gains on securities the fund...
by kenschmidt
Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Fund Capital Gains Tax, Over the Years
Replies: 19
Views: 764

Re: Cincinnati insurance?

Solid company. I have had my home and auto insurance with them since 1998.
by kenschmidt
Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cincinnati insurance?
Replies: 7
Views: 739

Re: Bonus received. But its not what was agreed upon. Advi

Let it go, let it go
Can't hold it back anymore
Let it go, let it go
Turn away and slam the door!

I don't care
What they're going to say
Let the storm rage on,
The cold never bothered me anyway!

--- Queen Elsa
by kenschmidt
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonus received. But its not what was agreed upon. Advice?
Replies: 61
Views: 5059

Re: Loaning money to an only child

Unless your son has shown a specific reason why a loan would be a bad idea - for example, if you think they would just run up more debt - I would loan them the money. I would have them pay you back, but ultimately, your son will probably end up with this money some day anyway, so if you have the mea...
by kenschmidt
Sun Mar 08, 2015 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Loaning money to an only child
Replies: 17
Views: 1408

Re: Issue with ordering new Chevrolet truck

Sales incentives are usually in place to move existing inventory. Since there is no inventory "problem" they are trying to solve with a custom order, there is no incentive for them to offer you a discount. Can you find a truck that has all the features you want, even if it has some feature...
by kenschmidt
Sun Mar 08, 2015 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Issue with ordering new Chevrolet truck
Replies: 6
Views: 682

Re: High Cost of Fruits and Vegetables

So it sounds like you're buying a fair bit of out of season produce, and you're paying an organic premium on top of that. That's going to bump up your expense right there. When you say a "box" of organic vegetables, what do you mean? Are these pre-packed rather than bought in bulk? That'l...
by kenschmidt
Sun Mar 08, 2015 11:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High Cost of Fruits and Vegetables
Replies: 126
Views: 6992

Re: New DOW Component

Because it makes the best of those products. That's debatable. What Apple has managed to do is to create a cult following around its products through a certain degree of innovation, superior marketing, and by creating an ecosystem that incentivizes consumers that have invested in Apple products to ...
by kenschmidt
Sun Mar 08, 2015 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New DOW Component
Replies: 40
Views: 2673

Re: How Many Credit Cards Do You Actually Use?

Regularly use:

Discover
Capital One Quicksilver Visa
Citibank Hilton Honors Visa
Kohls

In drawer, used rarely:

Citibank Sears MasterCard
Chase BP Visa
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 07, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Many Credit Cards Do You Actually Use?
Replies: 67
Views: 4452

Re: New DOW Component

The contrarian in me says this is probably the high water mark for Apple for awhile.
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New DOW Component
Replies: 40
Views: 2673

Re: Adult Music Lessons

I would plan on needing more than a year or two to become a decent player. Adequate is relative, but based on my experience taking lessons when I was younger, I would say after a year or two you could maybe bang around on some simple songs that were scored for a novice level and sound ok. After 4 or...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adult Music Lessons
Replies: 30
Views: 2091

Re: Driveway Replacement Cost

Another option between concrete and pavers is stamped concrete. This can be colored and a stamped pattern laid on the concrete to give the look of pavers without the labor or maintenance.
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driveway Replacement Cost
Replies: 36
Views: 2679

Re: stress management tips?

I got some good advice recently in a professional development program. The slogan was "you have to pay the rent daily". RENT = Rest, Exercise, Nutrition and Thoughts. Especially when it comes to thoughts, I work very hard to banish negative thoughts from my mind. A book that really helped ...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: stress management tips?
Replies: 19
Views: 1656

Re: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - W

Evan after yesterday, my portfolio is still up nearly 2% on the year. So to me, yesterday is just a small blip in what I hope is a long term upward trend. The market is very unpredictable. If you think it is easy to identify "what to invest in now", my experience is that you will probably ...
by kenschmidt
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - Wow
Replies: 66
Views: 4278

Re: New Homeowner Gift

Gift certificate to a local landscaping company ($250 will buy a nice tree)

Gourmet welcome basket containing wine, cheese, etc.
by kenschmidt
Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Homeowner Gift
Replies: 31
Views: 1673

Re: Favorite chocolate candy

Dammit now I'm hungry!
by kenschmidt
Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite chocolate candy
Replies: 51
Views: 3514

Re: Favorite chocolate candy

I like See's a lot. It used to be a special item I would purchase when I flew somewhere west, but now they also sell it at the Cincinnati airport, so some of the scarcity allure is gone. That hasn't stopped me from buying it though... :D There is a local candy maker based in Dayton, OH called Esther...
by kenschmidt
Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite chocolate candy
Replies: 51
Views: 3514

Re: physicians [Frustrated, considering early retirement]

I have no idea why so many regret our career choices but it seems rather common. Work is hard. You make compromises and sacrifices to make a living. I am not a physician but I know it is a hard, stressful job. But you can make a lot of money doing it. Just to have the option to retire at 45 or 50 o...
by kenschmidt
Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: physicians [Frustrated, considering early retirement]
Replies: 132
Views: 9209

Re: New or Used Honda Odyssey

You should look at the cost per year of expected use. Let's say you expect a new vehicle to last you 10 years, then 33K/10 = 3.3K per year. The 2012 has 7 years left in a 10 year projection, so $25K/7 = 3.57K per year. Not only is the used one going to be more expensive to buy, but the best and mos...
by kenschmidt
Wed Feb 25, 2015 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New or Used Honda Odyssey
Replies: 20
Views: 1057

Re: Help! I can't afford to eat on my South Beach vacation

This is why I do my beach vacations on the Redneck Riviera, where you can rent a condo with a kitchen, park your late model minivan out front and shop for food at Wal-Mart. One year, we really splurged and rented a condo with a covered parking spot and shopped at Publix.

I know, crazy.
by kenschmidt
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help! I can't afford to eat on my South Beach vacation
Replies: 60
Views: 5099

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

The methodology cited in this article and the also mentioned Dalbar study is flawed and can overstate the performance gap between investor and index returns. As others mentioned, this has nothing to do with value as even straight index investors can seem to suffer the same fate. The Finance Buff doe...
by kenschmidt
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 55
Views: 5407

Re: Problems with Internet Explorer

IE hasn't been worth using since the 90s. You made the right choice. I don't know about that, wasn't Netscape a better option back then :happy . As someone who developed websites back then, Netscape 4 was a disaster compared to Internet Explorer 5 when it first came out. When IE 6 came out, it was ...
by kenschmidt
Sun Feb 22, 2015 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Problems with Internet Explorer
Replies: 24
Views: 1658
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