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by k66
Mon May 25, 2015 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First in four part series on four big bank active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 1164

Re: First in four part series on four big bank active funds

Thanks Larry. It's always interested to digest these results--even if the conclusion is almost always predictable.

Are the Annualized Returns reported (Table on page 2) gross or net of fees?
by k66
Tue May 19, 2015 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16471

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

It looks like CODE (Spansion) was put on the table and cut up by CY (Cyprus Tech) into itty bitty pieces on or about March 12... Under the terms of the agreement, Spansion shareholders will receive 2.457 Cypress shares for each Spansion share they own. The shareholders of each company will own appro...
by k66
Sun May 03, 2015 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Glide Path
Replies: 14
Views: 878

Re: Reverse Glide Path

I have to admit that the prospect is enticing as my own modelling also shows a marginal benefit to using a rising glide-path approach in retirement (similar to what Pfau & Kitces have shown). In my own personal model I get an optimized spending starting at 50% and increasing to 100% over 35 year...
by k66
Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's holding cash?
Replies: 86
Views: 6506

Re: Who's holding cash?

A couple of weeks ago I transfered out the maximum number of units from my employee stock ownership plan. I had approx $31k in cash for 7, almost 8, minutes before getting it all into my suite of index funds. That was far far too long to be "out of the market".
by k66
Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1279
Views: 249614

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OK -- time to sell. This thread forms the backbone of my market-timing process...
by k66
Fri Apr 17, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Baby boomers bad for stock market?
Replies: 27
Views: 2627

Re: Baby boomers bad for stock market?

To say that Baby Boomers are a relatively large peer group is true. To assume that are the largest group is wrong. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005067.html Although birthrates in the US have continuously declined, the total birth numbers have only increased. As Bottlecap notes: Someone is on the ...
by k66
Wed Apr 15, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming
Replies: 71
Views: 8636

Re: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming

EmergDoc wrote:... And more ammo.


Amen to that!
by k66
Sat Apr 11, 2015 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Indexer, Speculator & Efficiency
Replies: 17
Views: 1625

Re: The Indexer, Speculator & Efficiency

To say that markets have become more (or less) efficient requires that you have an established measurement of efficiency, which I don't think that there is one. As I understand it, all we can really say is that markets achieve some efficiency based on collective active participation. Yes, there is ...
by k66
Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerns about not tilting to certain sectors
Replies: 10
Views: 771

Re: Concerns about not tilting to certain sectors

Do you ever worry about "missing out" by not tilting to a specific sector? It seems like health care and small caps are worthy of a tilt. I know the total market index already has both of these, but you sometimes wonder what your gains might be with a bit of extra mileage... Think also ab...
by k66
Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Indexer, Speculator & Efficiency
Replies: 17
Views: 1625

Re: The Indexer, Speculator & Efficiency

To say that markets have become more (or less) efficient requires that you have an established measurement of efficiency, which I don't think that there is one. As I understand it, all we can really say is that markets achieve some efficiency based on collective active participation.
by k66
Fri Apr 03, 2015 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to find the true value of a stock
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: How to find the true value of a stock

Bill M wrote:...But the best indication of "true value" is what someone else will pay for it; like the most recent market quote.


Exactly. And when you have as many people as possible offering these opinions, the better. Valuation by consensus.
by k66
Thu Apr 02, 2015 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16471

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Oh no! CODE (Spansion Inc.) is showing as $0.00, causing a lot of red ink spatter in Trixter's holdings.
by k66
Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Ins and Outs of Index Tracking", Rowley & Kwon
Replies: 0
Views: 228

"The Ins and Outs of Index Tracking", Rowley & Kwon

I am only able to access the Abstract, but this recent paper seems to provide more confirmation of the "low fees are best" mantra. http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jpm.2015.41.3.035 Article Abstract: The extent to which an index fund successfully tracks its benchmark index is gaug...
by k66
Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you reinvest your ETF dividends now?
Replies: 10
Views: 1459

Re: Should you reinvest your ETF dividends now?

I think that it might be a mistake to rationalize the process by assuming that the market (or your portfolio) will increase by a set constant amount each year. Your portfolio will probably change by anything but the number you have assigned. I would agree with livesoft: look for a broker who can off...
by k66
Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear market warning sign
Replies: 27
Views: 5335

Re: Bear market warning sign

Thank you Valuethinker for your correlative heads-up!
by k66
Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More XIRR Questions
Replies: 19
Views: 1618

Re: More XIRR Questions

XIRR gives you the annualized rate of return. In the case of a period that is less than one year, as would be for YTD calculations, you need to adjust the XIRR output. It's relatively painless though: YTD = (1 + @XIRR)^(#days/365.25), where #days is the number of days thus far in the year and 365.25...
by k66
Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you invest in individual stocks?
Replies: 70
Views: 5286

Re: How many of you invest in individual stocks?

I hold one individual stock with a near-guaranteed ROR of 50%. I hold it in my company's employee share ownership plan (e.g. I get a 1/2 share for every one I purchase up to 4% gross). Also, once per year, I sell as many shares as I am able to without violating the minimum holding period (else I wou...
by k66
Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement calculation lies? [Geometric vs. arithmetic mean]
Replies: 49
Views: 5664

Re: Retirement calculation lies?

Don't forget also the relationship between Arithmetic mean, m(a), and geometric mean, m(g), is related by the standard deviation, s, (fluctuation in period returns): m(g) = m(a) - s^2 / 2 When s is zero (no variation, or constant return) then they are equal. That relationship is only true if the PD...
by k66
Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement calculation lies? [Geometric vs. arithmetic mean]
Replies: 49
Views: 5664

Re: Retirement calculation lies?

Don't forget also the relationship between Arithmetic mean, m(a), and geometric mean, m(g), is related by the standard deviation, s, (fluctuation in period returns):

m(g) = m(a) - s^2 / 2

When s is zero (no variation, or constant return) then they are equal.
by k66
Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 116
Views: 12467

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

Riptide--I started my BH-style investing almost exactly 5 years ago (April 2010). Almost the day after I switched my portfolio to index-based investments, the market blew out the better part of 20% (SP500 from 1220 down to 1020). It really made me think twice about what I had done and if I wasn't go...
by k66
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reduced Spending thru Retirement? Models or Data
Replies: 6
Views: 786

Reduced Spending thru Retirement? Models or Data

Has anyone seen or read studies or data related to the potential for reduced spending in retirement? A retiree's progressive spending is perhaps generally determined by (a) decreasing spending needs (e.g. older retirees not able or wanting to spend as much as younger retirees) and (b) potential incr...
by k66
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25 years old, 100k cash to invest, need help/advice
Replies: 12
Views: 1185

Re: 25 years old, 100k cash to invest, need help/advice

Welcome to the board Norcal25 and congratulations for having a good financial position at this stage in your life. My first comment might be to not be too assured that your position and/or the industry that you are in is that safe. I'm not saying they are not; just bear in mind that sometimes we dec...
by k66
Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five most important things to be a successful investor?
Replies: 38
Views: 4567

Re: Five most important things to be a successful investor?

These four "basic tenets" are taken directly from my IPS: Earning returns will require exposure to risk (accept volatility), Compounding returns will contribute significantly over time (stay invested), Follow the Investment Plan (impulsive actions are destructive), and Keep plans as simple...
by k66
Sat Mar 14, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24626

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I think we all pretty much agree that Dr. B is an extremely knowledgable author and provider of advice. But to what extent are his predictions perhaps controlled by some basic concern for professional liability? For example, other professional advise-givers are very much aware how their advice needs...
by k66
Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1279
Views: 249614

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm not trying to time the market but I bought some ETFs (ITOT through Fidelity) about a for several months now and i'm not seeing any progress. It seems that the market is unstable that I should wait before making any further investments. I don't think Thoughts? Are any of you holding off expectin...
by k66
Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold precious metal
Replies: 44
Views: 3638

Re: Anyone hold precious metal

Absolutely none. Simplicity is one of the four key tenets of my IPS.
by k66
Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Costs Investors Must Control
Replies: 61
Views: 5807

Re: 3 Costs Investors Must Control

... au contraire. The energy with which went into daily analysis of TSP share prices was breathtaking. They are still at it over here: http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php I was an active reader back in the dot com bubble days of the late 90s and there was considerable anguish amongst some in the TS...
by k66
Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss
Replies: 12
Views: 1474

Re: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss

@palarry: Congratulations on your recovery, and you are absolutely right in that there will be curve-balls in life which are both difficult to predict and recover from if not properly prepared. @pkcrafter: A permanent loss could conceivably occur in one of two ways. The first, as you noted, is to pa...
by k66
Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does More Indexing Mean Less Stock Trading?
Replies: 8
Views: 838

Re: Does More Indexing Mean Less Stock Trading?

http://i.imgur.com/vOjA6hx.jpg Source: Wells Fargo Yes interesting chart. I also wonder what the trading landscape was like pre2000. It seems as if the S&P500 is only now returning to earlier levels despite present-day HFT activity. Did the en masse day-trading movement of the late 90s really e...
by k66
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Truths About Stop Losses
Replies: 14
Views: 1523

Re: Truths About Stop Losses

Ha! Seems every time i put in a stop loss order.. the stock drops just enough to trigger the sale, then heads back up again... always wonder if the computers can do that on purpose.. or it's just my bad luck.. I have head that anyone with higher level data/quote service can in fact see where stops ...
by k66
Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss
Replies: 12
Views: 1474

Re: Recovering Your Investment after a Loss

Did you mean that you had $140,000 left after your $60k (30%) loss from $200k?

Also bear in mind that the math you noted is reflective of a permanent loss. Although there are no guarantees, a broadly diversified portfolio would not be subject to permanent losses (hopefully!).
by k66
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 101
Views: 9116

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

Why bother picking? Most will not make the grade:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=159022
by k66
Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 8x retirement savings rule
Replies: 83
Views: 8575

Re: The 8x retirement savings rule

Are they saying 8X net or gross income?
by k66
Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16471

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Wow--this is unusual, I am beating the index! But then again, so are a number of others.
by k66
Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grexit ?
Replies: 24
Views: 1904

Re: Grexit !!

Greece hasn't exited that I know of. Let's just chalk this up this to needing some noise on an otherwise quiet market day.
by k66
Sat Feb 14, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical chance of bond or stock index going to zero
Replies: 8
Views: 847

Re: Hypothetical chance of bond or stock index going to zero

I'm not sure you can really assign a probability to something this ( a major market and thus it's index as well) going extinct. To know the correct likelihood of success or failure of an understood system in the future is built on knowing the history of success or failure of the same system in the p...
by k66
Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeking alpha is flawed. Ex-ante alpha must be 0.
Replies: 17
Views: 1464

Re: Seeking alpha is flawed. Ex-ante alpha must be 0.

1. If the model is correct, then ex-ante alpha for any security is 0. There's no alpha to seek. Can you explain why one measures alpha? Is the model absolutely correct, or merely "good"? I might suggest that it is probably the latter, especially if we subscribe to the notion that securiti...
by k66
Sun Feb 08, 2015 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: talk me out of it - investing in oil
Replies: 50
Views: 5221

Re: talk me out of it - investing in oil

Why not? Let 'er rip! As you noted, this would be an expendable investment that otherwise won't detract from your primary savings.

Have you read any of the exploits of the "Turtles"? The trend is your friend and all of that.
by k66
Wed Feb 04, 2015 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Successful investing: Is it luck or skill?
Replies: 26
Views: 2748

Re: Successful investing: Is it luck or skill?

There are definitely things that we can do that would purposefully (I think) sink a portfolio and could be done deliberately if need be. For example, utilizing highly leveraged funds (inverse or long) for extended periods of time; or maybe a little less poisonous, just staying in cash indefinitely. ...
by k66
Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crispin Odey's warning
Replies: 15
Views: 2334

Re: Crispey Odin's warning

I like "Crispey Odin" much better.
by k66
Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?
Replies: 71
Views: 8631

Re: Any other investors with 70/30 portfolio?

I am scheduled to turn 49 this year and plan to maintain a 75/25 AA for the next decade.
by k66
Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is risk described in newspaper?
Replies: 3
Views: 283

Re: How is risk described in newspaper?

I suspect that the news articles measure return by past performance. I wonder how they measure risk or whether they mention risk at all. Have you seen articles mentioned stdev, beta, VaR, skewness, or kurtosis? I haven't seen any of those types of discussions related to risk in the media. If they e...
by k66
Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to understand index funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1256

Re: Trying to understand index funds

There will always be differences between "The Index" and "The Fund That Tracks The Index", but they are small, if not miniscule. This does give rise to "Tracking Error".
by k66
Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bored when market is closed
Replies: 28
Views: 2218

Re: Bored when market is closed

To hell with boring old equity markets and their silly irreverent hours and days of operation… Get into the “real game” of FX trading: it does go 24/7/365 from from time zone to the next. Go-Go-Go! I recall reading one of Schwager’s “Market Wizards” books in which one of his interviewees traded FX a...
by k66
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1532

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

Suppose for simplicity that right now the US market is 50% of the world market cap, and foreign markets are 50%. Two ways to get exposure are : (1) 100% Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), (2) 50% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) + 50% Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS). Let's supp...
by k66
Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation
Replies: 56
Views: 5298

Re: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation

nisiprius wrote:...and not a moment's regret. I had been playing with fire and hadn't known it, and was happy to get out of it without being singed.


What your concern in particular? Was it with an appropriate level of diversification or rooted in any way with the structure of a REIT itself?
by k66
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $50 oil really the norm?
Replies: 41
Views: 3638

Re: Is $50 oil really the norm?

I read an article this morning (Financial Post) where market analysts were suggesting that Saudi Arabia has deliberately abandoned their traditional role as the swing producer (as opposed to it being some type of accidental or unintentional move), but could not give any evidence or motive for this i...
by k66
Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation
Replies: 56
Views: 5298

Re: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation

goalie wrote:Not sure how to answer, but I hold 8% Vanguard domestic REIT fund and 8% Vanguard int'l Real Estate fund. Do I say 8% or 16% ? Chip :confused


I was looking for "total" allocation, so in your case, that would be 16%.
by k66
Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation
Replies: 56
Views: 5298

Re: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation

I'm not familiar with TREA, but I suppose we could just reference the Wikipedia definition and let you decide how it fits: A real estate investment trust (REIT) /ˈriːt/ is a company that owns, and in most cases, operates income-producing real estate. REITs own many types of commercial real estate, r...

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