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Re: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming

If one predicts "the big one" on the Hayward Fault every day until the day it happens (as it will), one day you will be right.
by john94549
Fri Apr 17, 2015 10:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming
Replies: 69
Views: 7614

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

I lasted less than a week.
by john94549
Fri Apr 17, 2015 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 136
Views: 11112

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

We did just this, roughly a decade ago. Shifted enough to fund our first fifteen years of retirement into IRA CDs. We plan to start cashing them in right about the time our RMDs commence. Everything else, equities, bond funds, we'll start tapping at age 85. Even as noted, we still have fun keeping s...
by john94549
Fri Apr 17, 2015 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 77
Views: 7250

Re: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?

PS: If you really want to get ballsy, buy UPRO today, before close of market. Buy 100 shares or so, then go out and brag. Buy 500 shares or so, brag a lot. A two-dollar swing (which is not unusual) on 500 shares, well, it buys a few pizzas. The daily delta was over four bucks today. That DOES get on...
by john94549
Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?
Replies: 36
Views: 3774

Re: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?

My trading (fun money) account is basically back to 50% cash, 50% equities, which is fairly normal. Nothing to get all hot and bothered about. When Mr. Market gives us a dive, rather than a hiccup, I might deploy some cash. In brokerage accounts, commissions can eat you alive. Trading 50 shares in a...
by john94549
Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?
Replies: 36
Views: 3774

Re: Would you buy 1.5 M house without AC?

Even in Lamorinda, some homes don't have A/C (but do have pipes in the slab for heat, very 1950's). We're in one of the hotter parts of Lamorinda (Lafayette), and I would dare to say we run the heat much more often than the A/C. We have central air and heat.
by john94549
Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you buy a house without AC?
Replies: 58
Views: 4223

Re: Help with ideas to buy a home in a hot market

Our daughter and son-in-law were faced with an absolute need for a larger house (one child, another on the way). The East Bay here in SF was and is a very tight market. They used the old-fashioned method: getting to know the sellers. Turns out they (the sellers) loved the idea that a young family wo...
by john94549
Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with ideas to buy a home in a hot market
Replies: 14
Views: 1532

Re: yea or nay to 5 years CDs

As a general rule, a five-year ladder of five-year CDs beats just about any fixed-income, guaranteed, no ifs ands or buts, out there. I might shop around, but anywhere from 2 to 2.25% is within reason. Check my historic posts on this issue. Thanks. How do you feel about doing a proper ladder of 1, ...
by john94549
Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: yea or nay to 5 years CDs
Replies: 21
Views: 2363

Re: yea or nay to 5 years CDs

As a general rule, a five-year ladder of five-year CDs beats just about any fixed-income, guaranteed, no ifs ands or buts, out there. I might shop around, but anywhere from 2 to 2.25% is within reason.

Check my historic posts on this issue.
by john94549
Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: yea or nay to 5 years CDs
Replies: 21
Views: 2363

Re: How do you sign a document when you are POA for someone?

Before my Mom died, I was advised by her bank to sign with my name, and underneath the words "for (my Mom's name) per DPOA". I never had a problem. They did say NEVER to just sign with my Mom's name and a slash/my initials, as that might be deemed forgery. Now, were they being hyper-techni...
by john94549
Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Father can no longer sign his name. Looking for solutions.
Replies: 23
Views: 2129

Re: Calculating LTCG for a long-term investment

Don't forget to include splits and reverse splits in your calculations. Actually if you knew how to program developing a program to calculate all this and spit out a report wouldn't be that difficult assuming the manual process was well understood. But if the data isn't in machine readable form it ...
by john94549
Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating LTCG for a long-term investment
Replies: 5
Views: 361

Re: Noncash Tax Deduction Over $500

For "stuff" which can reasonably be re-sold, "thrift store price" is not a bad starting place. Most thrift stores, though unwilling to assign a specific value to a donation, might suggest 10% of retail or perhaps more. My wife is a bit of a retail maven, and quite conservative wh...
by john94549
Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Noncash Tax Deduction Over $500
Replies: 10
Views: 956

Re: Do you wish you retired earlier?

Retired precisely on schedule (age 59 1/2), now pushing age 68. No regrets.
by john94549
Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you wish you retired earlier?
Replies: 28
Views: 3507

Calculating LTCG for a long-term investment

Some time ago, I asked Waddell & Reed to help me out calculating my basis for a fund held for a long, long time (in a taxable mutual fund). They did a yeoman-like analysis, going back close to 45 years. But they did it the old-fashioned way, with pen and paper, as I suspect most would need to do...
by john94549
Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating LTCG for a long-term investment
Replies: 5
Views: 361

Re: Norwesco water tanks

Epsilon Delta, I plan to (a) buy the 300 gallon tank; then (b) fill it two thirds full; then (c) see if the truck makes it up the hill.
by john94549
Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Norwesco water tanks
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: Bored -- wondering about day trading for fun

To poster "debenture":

As you noted, it's just math. I recently ordered SPXU 1500 at 34. It did not fill. Out there, somewhere, folks are sitting around with 1500 shares of SPXU I do not have.
by john94549
Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bored -- wondering about day trading for fun
Replies: 61
Views: 5560

Re: Bored -- wondering about day trading for fun

Livesoft, merely noting, not advocating. Day-traders can do math. Inasmuch as on-line folks charge a set fee for one share or a gazillion shares, it's just arithmetic. Seriously crazy day-traders plunk down $100,000 on a leveraged bet (SPXU or UPRO), then bail out when they are up a few basis points...
by john94549
Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bored -- wondering about day trading for fun
Replies: 61
Views: 5560

Re: Bored -- wondering about day trading for fun

Day-trading is a scalable activity. If you have but $1000, the commissions will eat you alive. If you have $100,000 to trade, the commissions in and out become negligible. For example, Schwab charges the same fee for trading $50,000 worth of shares as it does for trading $500 worth of shares.
by john94549
Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bored -- wondering about day trading for fun
Replies: 61
Views: 5560

Re: Money saved for house in bonds?

For a very-short-term, saving-for-a-specific-purpose goal, I wouldn't get too fancy. On-line, garden-variety savings accounts these days offer 1% and FDIC or NCUA guarantees. Technically, your funds might lose a tad to inflation, but I suspect it will be a rounding error when compared to the negotia...
by john94549
Wed Apr 08, 2015 4:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Money saved for house in bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 598

Re: Norwesco water tanks

As an up-date, I finally determined that water haulers were totally disinterested in delivering re-cycled water, as much more can be obtained (by them) trucking potable water to ranchers locally whose wells have literally run dry. Ranchers just south of us are paying $2000/mo for potable water for t...
by john94549
Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Norwesco water tanks
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: Good 5 year jumbo or regular CD rate ?

2.25% is pretty much the "going rate" for the 5-yr. That said, you might be able to shop for hot deals at Ken Tumin's blog. http://www.depositaccounts.com/blog Thank our lucky stars, we don't yet have negative interest rates. Ironically enough, our libor-based adjustable just went up a few...
by john94549
Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good 5 year jumbo or regular CD rate ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1745

Re: No AA for the wealthy ?

Bucket strategies seldom go out over what I would consider a long period of time. If you have enough at age 70 to go out 15 years with your IRA CDs, that's a bucket. Tap your other investments at age 85, another bucket.
by john94549
Sat Apr 04, 2015 4:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No AA for the wealthy ?
Replies: 25
Views: 2682

Re: Norwesco water tanks

While the sanitary district basically gives away the water (as I noted), the devil's in the details; my preferred tank is basically unavailable in CA. The shipping cost would roughly equal the tank cost. Which gets us back to the Norwesco #41370, which is stocked in CA. Tanks aside, the local water ...
by john94549
Thu Apr 02, 2015 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Norwesco water tanks
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: If long-term, why not just go really high risk?

Ironically enough, my parents bought me a mutual fund over 50 years ago (UNSCX), when I was 21 (I'm now 67, pushing 68). I suspect I'm the closest Boglehead you have to a representative sample. Whether I would have done better in a CD ladder, or something else, well, I'll leave that to others. I do ...
by john94549
Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If long-term, why not just go really high risk?
Replies: 49
Views: 4914

Norwesco water tanks

We are attempting to shift as much outdoor watering to re-cycled water as possible. To that end, we are looking at Norwesco above-ground water tanks. The concept would be to have the local water re-cycle truck pull up to our house every week or so, fill the tank with re-cycled water, and water witho...
by john94549
Wed Apr 01, 2015 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Norwesco water tanks
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: Deferring SS & IRA distributions until 70 & future taxes

We will also be saying aloha to the 15% marginal bracket at 70.
by john94549
Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferring SS & IRA distributions until 70 & future taxes?
Replies: 9
Views: 597

Re: Smartest Financial Move You Ever Made

Embarking on a program, about a decade ago, to set aside enough in a CD ladder to fund our first fifteen years or so of retirement (aside from other sources of income). We're 67, pushing 68, and plan to start tapping those CDs at 70. Our balanced funds, and other stocks and bonds, well they can wait...
by john94549
Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Smartest Financial Move You Ever Made
Replies: 139
Views: 13559

Re: WSJ Delivery Record - Dismal

Our print newspapers have (wisely) consolidated all deliveries. Whether it be the Chronicle, WSJ, or NYT, it's all the same delivery person. I don't know who they choose, but our local service is excellent. I do know I had a real problem with delivery some time back, and called the NYT directly. The...
by john94549
Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ Delivery Record - Dismal
Replies: 25
Views: 1906

Re: Best Way to Visualize Compounding

I might take exception to your basic assumptions. For example, "investing" entails risk, and does not guarantee anything, much less compounding. As to "cash", a prudently-maintained CD ladder (say, of 5-yr CDs) both compounds (if retail) and bests inflation, at least at today's r...
by john94549
Sun Mar 29, 2015 7:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Way to Visualize Compounding
Replies: 40
Views: 3318

Re: Sector ETFs instead of VTI

I would answer in order: (a) yes; (b) no; (c) yes.
by john94549
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sector ETFs instead of VTI
Replies: 5
Views: 468

Re: 'Work from Home' Opportunities..?

(She) has started some online page where people can go and buy products through her link. Let us know how this might work. Assuming a prospective purchaser actually does (a) find her page, then (b) clicks on her link, which (c) directs the prospective purchaser to the actual seller, who (d) actuall...
by john94549
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 'Work from Home' Opportunities..?
Replies: 20
Views: 2301

Re: Going over gift tax limits

It really takes some effort (and considerable wealth) to exceed the lifetime exclusion. I doubt that hunting down non-filers among those who gift modestly above the threshold is high on the IRS's priorities. I suspect the IRS has a fair idea of the extremely tiny percent of the mega-rich who should ...
by john94549
Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going over gift tax limits
Replies: 20
Views: 1661

Re: SPIA: Northwestern Mutual vs New York Life

My Mom had an annuity with NWM. Excellent service, if that matters.
by john94549
Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SPIA: Northwestern Mutual vs New York Life
Replies: 17
Views: 1430

Re: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?

As one with the vast majority of fixed-income in CDs, I would welcome any rate hike.
by john94549
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?
Replies: 58
Views: 5829

Re: Rising Interest Rates and Vanguard's Prime Money Market

By-and-large, you will do much better in a garden-variety savings account.
by john94549
Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rising Interest Rates and Vanguard's Prime Money Market
Replies: 3
Views: 694

Re: How is VTIAX performing?

SpringMan, if "up" 5.69% year-to-date doesn't get an "A", what might?
by john94549
Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is VTIAX performing?
Replies: 18
Views: 1879

Re: How is VTIAX performing?

Last I checked, VTIAX was up year-to-date 5.69%. Better than a poke in the eye, might I say. By far, it's my best-performing fund this year.
by john94549
Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How is VTIAX performing?
Replies: 18
Views: 1879

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

I don't "invest" in SPXU. I just trade in it. So that is your 5% mad money fooling around money? Correct. Just a few pennies here and there, but when multiplied by enough zeros, it gets fun. Certainly is cheaper than driving to the closest casino. And, might I say, casinos don't have &quo...
by john94549
Sat Mar 21, 2015 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

I don't "invest" in SPXU. I just trade in it. It is extremely volatile, which is good, and also has high volume. It is, literally, a "day trade". Odds are pretty good, when Mr. Market is on a roll, SPXU will go up and down, and up and down. Worst time for SPXU is when Mr. Market ...
by john94549
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Seriously, 700 X .08 = $ 56 minus commissions (roughly twenty), and it's beer money. Thank you kindly.
by john94549
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

This morning, bought at 34, sold at 34.08. 700 shares. SPXU, check it out. Got out when the getting was good. OK, after in and out commissions, basically beer money.
by john94549
Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Why Funds Over ETFs?

OK, we need to put our tin-foil hats on, but I actually reported a gambling gain (and a gambling loss). Ironically enough, the dang casino actually insisted on my SSN before they paid out the slot winning. Yup, you betcha, got a 1099.
by john94549
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Funds Over ETFs?
Replies: 57
Views: 5496

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Is it spelled "brocolli" or "broccoli"? In the picture, lower right.

"brawk-o-lee"
by john94549
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Might I say, looks yummy.
by john94549
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

It is weird. My Schwab is up. Seriously, when Mr. Market is waaaaay up, should we buy a chunk of SPXU?

Done twice, might I add.
by john94549
Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Cleared. Filled at 35.

Too weird. Up the down ladder.

Can't be this simple to beat the algorithms. Or is it?

OMG, could this be a Boglehead trading strategy?
by john94549
Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?

Bought another 1000 shares of SPXU yesterday, right before the close. 34.59. Set a limit at 35. Testing my theory. I suspect the computers just instinctively revert after a huge day. Stated another way, it's just magnitude.

OK, so far.
by john94549
Thu Mar 19, 2015 6:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dip? What Dip? Did you catch it?
Replies: 134
Views: 12192

Re: Why Funds Over ETFs?

It's somewhat linked to behavioral economics. One can "trade" VTI. One cannot "trade" VTSAX. The odds that one will flip in, and out, of VTI (to one's detriment) are much greater than the odds of flipping in and out of VTSAX. Stated another way, one's "real money" shou...
by john94549
Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Funds Over ETFs?
Replies: 57
Views: 5496

Re: ER: VTSAX vs. VBIAX

Thanks to all. I know it's pennies before the proverbial steamroller, but, hey, basis points count, and all that.

I don't have a huge amount left in VBIAX (basically a legacy fund from days gone bye-bye). But the $60K+ could be deployed more efficiently, as folks have shown.
by john94549
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ER: VTSAX vs. VBIAX
Replies: 12
Views: 1093

Re: ER: VTSAX vs. VBIAX

OK, if I'm following all correctly, I should multiply my VBIAX holding by .6 (and move that to VTSAX) and by .4 (and move that to VBTLX), then re-balance periodically. Right?

I'm assuming there's no Admiral equivalent to VBTLX.

And, yes, these are all tax-deferred funds.
by john94549
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ER: VTSAX vs. VBIAX
Replies: 12
Views: 1093
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