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Re: Allan Roth says CD's

Many Bogleheads have been mentioning CDs and CD ladders for ever so long. My goodness, where do we start? I would suggest searching all my posts , then Kevin M's. The real issue is how to build a CD ladder from scratch using bond funds. You can't just go "all in". Building a CD ladder requ...
by john94549
Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth says CD's
Replies: 51
Views: 4312

Re: Let's talk cash

As Kevin M noted, the "early break" strategy has its own risks. We have not experienced a rapidly-rising rate environment since banks and CUs made explicit their terms and conditions that early withdrawals were discretionary (their discretion, not yours). While Ken Tumin has always provide...
by john94549
Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk cash
Replies: 31
Views: 3976

Re: Keep money taxable in case the laws change

My wife and I started investing in IRAs back when they were first introduced, in the 70s. Never gave a thought to whether laws might "change". As a practical matter, what would "they" do? Revisit tax returns from 40 years ago? I can only recall one period of time, back in the mid...
by john94549
Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep money taxable in case the laws change
Replies: 9
Views: 1159

Re: Bond Market Timing

I'm not a huge fan of bond funds in general in this environment, but the "least worst" (which I have owned) is probably VFSTX. That said, I bailed some time ago on VFSTX (probably too early, but hindsight is 20-20). If you have a long(ish) horizon, believe strongly in the concept of durati...
by john94549
Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Timing
Replies: 16
Views: 1755

Re: Should I invest in bonds at all in my AA?

Bond funds are quite helpful for re-balancing. I would always keep just enough in bond funds for that purpose. That said, other fixed-income alternatives might be better once one has salted away enough for re-balancing. I Bonds, EE Bonds, CDs, all have merit. Even a garden-variety cash savings accou...
by john94549
Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I invest in bonds at all in my AA?
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Is 2% (1.8%) the new 4%?

Axiomatically, if your investments "throw off" 2%/annum, you have no risk of principal, you never harvest any principal, and harvest only the interest, your risk is but to purchasing power. As in, inflation. I suppose you could harvest that 2% ad infinitum. The more interesting question is...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 2% (1.8%) the new 4%?
Replies: 72
Views: 3642

Re: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds

I prefer not to count S/S as a "bond", any more than I count our rental property as a "bond". Both throw off a monthly cash flow, but neither is a "bond". A "bond" is a debt instrument, with an interest payment (which might, or might not, be fixed). However, i...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds
Replies: 110
Views: 8329

Re: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds

I have held the garden-variety panacea for dividend paying stocks for ever so long (DVY). Trust me, it goes up and down just like all other stocks. Has it out-performed your garden-variety dividend paying stock index fund? As in VTI?

Pull up a chart.
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds
Replies: 110
Views: 8329

Re: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds

I suspect "bonds" may have been taken a tad too literally when one is considering fixed-income investments. Most of us considered more than one route to Dublin. PS: To Lady Geek. 680 North from Dublin today was a mess, owing to a bottle-neck on 24. Best to follow 580 east. Many routes &quo...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Too Much In Bonds
Replies: 110
Views: 8329

Re: Social Security Spousal Benefit-Delayed Retirement Credi

FWIW, my wife just began collecting her "free money". We are both 66, her record was a tad higher than mine (thanks to my military service and graduate school), and I started collecting at 62. She filed for spousal a few months back and the direct deposits just started. She's delaying to 7...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Spousal Benefit-Delayed Retirement Credits
Replies: 5
Views: 408

Re: Not happy with market

My wife and I are 66. We have been investing since the IRA was "invented" (I kid you not) in the early 70's. Even before then, my parents bought me a modest stock fund (in the late 60's). And before that, I plowed all my ill-gotten gains (from lawn-mowing, snow-shoveling, yard-trimming, yo...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not happy with market
Replies: 78
Views: 5481

Re: What Would You Do? [Portfolio help - need funds in 2 yea

Should you need the stated amount today for a down payment, what might you need two years hence? The way some real estate markets are moving, it might be a moving target. And if "all cash" deals continue to gain favor (as they have in certain markets), the concept of a "down payment&q...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Would You Do? [Portfolio help - need funds in 2 years]
Replies: 41
Views: 1431

Re: The Markets are Down Should I Buy More

FWIW, my wife and I buy as follows: (a) every two weeks, through her 401K, and (b) when our AA gets out-of-whack. Obviously, scenario (a) occurs more often than scenario (b). Indeed, she actually "sold" some equities in her 401K a few weeks ago in a re-balance from 64/36 back to 60/40. I s...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Markets are Down Should I Buy More
Replies: 20
Views: 2033

Re: Let's talk cash

As Kevin M noted, a plan does not mean you must be wedded to any particular asset (read: bond funds) within an asset class (read: fixed income). A certain amount of dexterity and common sense, and all that. In a rising-rate environment, as we now appear to be in, certain types of fixed-income are mo...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk cash
Replies: 31
Views: 3976

Re: Let's talk cash

To: bpg1234

Sounds like you have a great option in that 2%+ IRA savings account. Comparable to stable value funds in 401Ks. So long as it's NCUA-insured, I'd seriously consider an allocation of part of your FI TIRA to it.
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk cash
Replies: 31
Views: 3976

Re: Let's talk cash

On the heels of Credit Unions and the discussion of potential use of CD's in lieu of a portion of the bond allocation in one's TIRA due to concerns over interest rate risk, what would the BH perspective be on transferring some of existing Vanguard TIRA fixed income (say up to the $250K insured limi...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk cash
Replies: 31
Views: 3976

Re: Let's talk cash

Dazed, a good resource devoted to cash, CDs, and the like is Ken Tumin's blog: http://www.depositaccounts.com/blog. In this rate environment, you might wish to consider building a CD ladder. Plunking all your spare cash in one 5-yr CD might look (relatively) good today, but in three or four years, t...
by john94549
Thu Jun 13, 2013 9:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Let's talk cash
Replies: 31
Views: 3976

Re: A good core bond fund

Tough to approach a real rate of return with after-tax FI these days. Tax-exempt bond funds, well you avoid the tax hit but still have interest-rate risk. CD ladders, you avoid the interest-rate risk but pay the taxes. And with either, there's inflation nibbling. IBonds, EE Bonds, great for new mone...
by john94549
Tue Jun 11, 2013 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A good core bond fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1391

Re: Investing is boring

You can scratch the speculative itch with a "play money" account, but I'd limit it to a modest amount (as a percentage of investable assets). You get the rush of "trading" without the downside of doing any real damage to your retirement. Don't be surprised, however, if the novelt...
by john94549
Tue Jun 11, 2013 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing is boring
Replies: 33
Views: 3323

Re: Nervous value investor starting out

Welcome. Mr. Market aside, do you have an emergency fund? Debt?
by john94549
Tue Jun 11, 2013 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nervous value investor starting out
Replies: 6
Views: 563

Re: Increasing Fixed Income in Asset Allocation?

FI is a rather large universe. You might consider IBonds, EE bonds, CDs, etc. I suspect if you salted away the max allowed for IBonds and EE bonds over the next few years, you'd see your relative FI AA creep up. These days, even garden-variety savings accounts or Reward Checking can be used as viabl...
by john94549
Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing Fixed Income in Asset Allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 873

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

A retired couple living on $50K, plus Social Security, plus a nice check from rental properties, plus a pension or two, throw in a modest SWR, yup, it can be done. With ordinary income sheltered per Form 8582, it gets so much easier.

It is a tad weird.
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 8307

Re: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"

Artsdoc, wow, your last post sounds fairly pessimistic. Go have a beer. It's Saturday.

No matter how bad it got, a cheap six-pack helped.
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"
Replies: 71
Views: 6901

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

An excellent article in the popular press that re-iterates what most folks who read this forum have already assimilated. While there is nothing new here, perhaps seeing it in black& white will stimulate some folks although the comments are full of whiners. Bogleheads, by definition, are not whi...
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 8307

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

Catch my other posts on headlines you'll never read. Or will, then ignore. The Sunday Times has about a gazillion column inches to fill. The Quarterly "Retirement Guide" generally touts the advantages of diversification. Duh.
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 8307

Re: a really depressing ny times article on retirement

Oblivious am I. But I do like the print edition. I'll read it tomorrow.

As an aside, we're fine. Else, how would we be able to pay for the Times?
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a really depressing ny times article on retirement
Replies: 67
Views: 8307

Re: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"

Artsdoc, said it once and will say it again, give a peek at a CD ladder. Seems like I'm butting my head against the wall. But Johnny Appleseed and all that.
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"
Replies: 71
Views: 6901

Re: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"

Somehow, in my tummy, I just think a headline proclaiming "Long-Term Investors View Recent Bond Fund Declines with a Yawn" would elicit few readers. Right up there with "CD Ladders Fashionable? Karl Lagerfeld Weighs In" (Womens Wear Daily). Or "J Lo sports low ER; draws gasp...
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"
Replies: 71
Views: 6901

Re: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"

My wife's 401K tossed the Stable Value from its options many months ago. So, you can play it safe with your bond allocation in a MMF (yielding virtually nothing, mattress money as it were) or stay the course in a low-cost index bond fund (VBTSX). I discussed the options with my wife some time ago, t...
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"
Replies: 71
Views: 6901

Re: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"

It will be interesting (at least to me) to see how bond funds behaved relative to their stated duration at the turn.

Stated durations have always brought to mind the phrase "caveat emptor". Not as questionable as slapping AAA on a sub-prime tranche, but . . ..
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times:"Bond Market Decline That Baffles The Experts"
Replies: 71
Views: 6901

Re: What are some good income limits to know?

It's a bit obscure, but the MAGI limit of $150K. For Form 8582.

Jot it down, for when you get older.
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are some good income limits to know?
Replies: 17
Views: 2627

Re: Premium for Brokerage CDs on Secondary Market?

Key Bank went through some rocky times in the swoon. Glad to see it has recovered.* As to its on-line division, can't speak to that. Might be, maybe they just shut it down. On a positive note, they have paid out those interest payments, and compounded them, like clockwork. 5.75%, compounded, well, t...
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premium for Brokerage CDs on Secondary Market?
Replies: 31
Views: 1261

Re: Premium for Brokerage CDs on Secondary Market?

Short answer. Were my 10-year CD with KeyDirect (yielding 5.75%) available on secondary (it's not), you could pay ever so much more than what I paid for ownership. But you could brag about the yield. what is keydirect? fidelity best is 2.5 at 10 year currently-has a 2.7 at 12 year. my wife insisted...
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premium for Brokerage CDs on Secondary Market?
Replies: 31
Views: 1261

Re: "Stock market downside quite limited"

We do what we have done. Just observe our AA, buy, hold, and re-balance. It's reasonably simple.

Just re-balanced a few days ago, as it were. Mid-year, due to the run-up in stocks. My wife's 401K did it automatically, with the press of a button. Painless.
by john94549
Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stock market downside quite limited"
Replies: 25
Views: 3142

Re: Which Emerging Market Fund?

Brad, I've always been confused, with respect to these funds, how "tilt" matters. Stated another way (and as alluded above) assume I have 20% of my emerging fund's tilt in "value", but research reveals the fund's value companies have no value whatsoever. They are Peruvian gold mi...
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 11:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Emerging Market Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 564

Re: Premium for Brokerage CDs on Secondary Market?

Short answer. Were my 10-year CD with KeyDirect (yielding 5.75%) available on secondary (it's not), you could pay ever so much more than what I paid for ownership. But you could brag about the yield.
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premium for Brokerage CDs on Secondary Market?
Replies: 31
Views: 1261

Re: if indexing why bonds?

Fixed-income investments provide an "anchor to windward" for a portfolio. As one ages, the risk of a swan (pick your color) magnifies. After a certain age (pick one), it becomes difficult to replace equity losses with new contributions. Hence, "age-in-bonds". It's overly-simplist...
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 11:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: if indexing why bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 1086

Re: Which Emerging Market Fund?

If you have a Schwab IRA (as I do, a SEP-IRA), I'd follow the path of least resistance. As I mentioned, had I not already plopped a bit down recently in VEMAX, I'd have gone with SCHE. As I also noted, unless you drill unmercifully down into the managers' selections, then do incredible amounts of ho...
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Emerging Market Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 564

Re: Need some help picking thru a barrel of rotten apple fun

Widestance, you got it. Nay, you nailed it. Making the best of a bad barrel. I might have allocated a tad more to the Vanguard "smallies", but I doubt it will make much difference. As I explained to my wife, will "growth" best "value"? Well, yes, some years. Will either...
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help picking thru a barrel of rotten apple funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1036

Re: Need some help picking thru a barrel of rotten apple fun

Perhaps I missed it, but the stable value fund is yielding, what? After ER, 2%, 3%? Mind you, in a rising-rate environment, a stable value fund is a worthy alternative to just about any bond fund. Many 401Ks (including my wife's) have discontinued them. Moving right along, your international selecti...
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need some help picking thru a barrel of rotten apple funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1036

Re: Is it to late to rid gnma

My Mom's fund, which is similar, has tanked of late. Not to mention the fact the dividend payout is down by roughly 25%. Thankfully, she does not need the dividends for living expenses, and just continues to re-invest. She's 98. If you're long-term, as my Mom, just stay the course. Short-term pain, ...
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it to late to rid gnma
Replies: 12
Views: 819

Re: Which Emerging Market Fund?

I would suspect it would take a whole lot of digging, and much research, to drill down into the particular holdings of each, then try to second-guess the managers' selections. Unless you are contemplating a huge purchase, it's probably best to go with the lower ER and the no-commission ETF (Schwab)....
by john94549
Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Emerging Market Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 564

Re: How to move funds from Vanguard IRA MMF to CU IRA CD?

As Artsdoc said. I've done many custodian-to-custodian IRA transfers from Vanguard to banks/CUs, and between banks and CUs, and it's not that difficult. Item #2 on his list can be tricky. Shoot for a rate lock when you apply, if possible. This may be less a concern in a rising-rate environment, but ...
by john94549
Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to move funds from Vanguard IRA MMF to CU IRA CD?
Replies: 4
Views: 334

Re: Will we get rich off index funds ?

It's all a matter of timing and patience. If you catch Mr. Market in a period just before a protracted bull (aka a cyclical bull), with 15 - 20 years to run, then you will do well. This is what many early Boomers (as my wife and I) experienced in the period from 1982 - 2000. Classic cyclical bull ma...
by john94549
Wed Jun 05, 2013 11:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will we get rich off index funds ?
Replies: 40
Views: 4307

Re: Bond Fund Question

We can all agree it is tough, indeed, to approximate a real return in "safe" FI these days. Not to say it can't be done, if one is willing to snoop around and jump through a few hoops. For example, various Reward Checking accounts offer real returns, are FDIC or NCUA insured, and are avail...
by john94549
Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 26
Views: 2399

Re: Bond Fund Question

Theoretically, you get the SEC yield. That said, bond funds are not static. So, you might, or might not. But (again, theoretically), it is supposed to work that way. Some folks prefer CD ladders. A tad more predictable with a smidge better return. Bond funds are better than nothing at all (read:cash...
by john94549
Sat Jun 01, 2013 11:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 42
Views: 1992

Re: Do I even need to invest in bonds?

One might opine you're a tad overweight in equities. But if you are aware of the risks, so be it. Bond funds these days have not been stellar performers.
by john94549
Sat Jun 01, 2013 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I even need to invest in bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 2420

Re: Time to dump bond funds?

Japan was indeed a great trade over the past year or two. Who would have thought it, with the Nikkei mired in the depths? Of course, little solace to the average Japanese consumer paying sky-high for imported whatevers, or going abroad.
by john94549
Fri May 31, 2013 11:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to dump bond funds?
Replies: 25
Views: 2353

Re: Picked up a Tad of VEMAX [Vanguard Emerging Markets Inde

Kevin, I've always kept roughly 15 - 20% of my total stock allocation in international, with a modest tilt to emerging. This recent buy just brings my allocation back closer to 20%, by adding to emerging. In dollar terms, VTIAX will be roughly $60K and VEMAX roughly $20K. My wife has a tad of VTIAX ...
by john94549
Fri May 31, 2013 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Picked up a Tad of VEMAX [Vanguard Emerging Markets Index]
Replies: 11
Views: 729

Re: Time to dump bond funds?

Kevin, you must agree that those of us into CD ladders are contrarians at heart. As a contrarian, would you not consider loading up on an asset class which will, perforce, lose favor as rates increase? I'm just thinking ahead. As more and more folks become enamoured with CDs, the law of supply and d...
by john94549
Fri May 31, 2013 10:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to dump bond funds?
Replies: 25
Views: 2353
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