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Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

New guy here... It sounds like the OP is just looking for a nudge of confidence before pulling the trigger, so here's mine! I bought VGPMX in June, mostly because of its volatility. I abide by the 10% of my assets in play money rule and count VGPMX within that. The rest of the 10% is just a few ind...
by joer1212
Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

One last thing, guys. I've noticed that VGPMX has become much more volatile since about the year 2000, which roughly corresponds to when Vanguard changed this fund to include base metals. One of the most common criticisms of VGPMX is that is has gone through very long periods of underperformance, bu...
by joer1212
Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

VGPMX is not an investment, it is a trade, IMO. If you feel you are a skilled trader, go for it and see what happens. Regards, Paul. The only thing that worries me about VGPMX is its long periods of underperformance. The volatility doesn't bother me, in fact, I actually embrace it. This fund is pro...
by joer1212
Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Here's a question I asked wbern on another thread (one that he started on commodities funds) recently regarding his thoughts on precious metal equities, and his reply Jeffy: Good point; the precious metals producers were the worst of the lot, and they actually did a little worse than PCRIX [PIMCO C...
by joer1212
Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Stonebr wrote:I'd buy low, sell low. Or buy high sell, low. Or buy low and hold low and get bored.


Can you clarify? We you not rebalancing (sell high; buy low)?
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Allan Roth had a article on his moneywatch blog several months ago about Vanguard's fund. If my memory is, he owns it, it is a relatively small part of his portfolio, you have to make a very long term commitment and that Vanguard had done something to the fund sometime in the past that made it less...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

You have accurately summarized the facts: extremely volatile, requires close attention, long stretches of disappointment, and gives lots of rebalancing opportunities. We held this fund for 7 1/2 years, made some money rebalancing in and out of the fund, and finally dropped it just to avoid the extr...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Does anyone know the correlation between VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining), VGSIX (Vanguard REITs), and VIPSX (Vanguard TIPS)? I ask this because I would only be able to rebalance between these 3 funds, since they are all in my Roth IRA. I would not be able to rebalance VGPMX with total ...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 3:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

If you look at the following graph, you will notice an interesting phenomenon about VGPMX. Since about the year 2000, it has behaved differently than it did in prior decades. Since about 2000, it has become much more volatile. Of course, I don't know if this trend will persist going forward, but if ...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Not sure how to say this tactfully. Not intended as criticism. Have you ask yourself why you want more than what the broad indexes deliver? If you saved only a few more percent of your income, you would have more return than 5% in PM will pay to you. I slice and dice, I own GLD, and I know what my ...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Pros: - VGPMX will allow me to volatility harvest when I rebalance, increasing my total returns, and also expanding my Roth IRA space (VGPMX is very volatile, plus it has a low correlation to REITs & TIPS-- a great rebalancing opportunity!). Cons: - VGPMX may require constant monitoring because...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Clearly_Irrational wrote:It doesn't, unless you enjoy uncompensated sector risk.


My thoughts at first as well, until I read the first study.
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

I have a small allocation to GDX. This is based on reading Bernstein’s thoughts about precious metals and mining holdings. I think you will get mixed recommendations on this forum regarding the utility of holding miners, but most will be negative about mining stocks. Most are probably tired of disc...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?

I am aware that this topic has been discussed here before, but no consensus ever seems to be reached about whether or not adding a precious metals & mining fund is beneficial to one's portfolio. I have been considering adding VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund) to my portfolio for a...
by joer1212
Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3152

Re: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining F

What are your thoughts on the benefits/disadvantages of holding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund in an otherwise diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds? Say 3-5% AA. I was thinking about it after reading an article about Ron Paul's portfolio which is apparently mostly mining stocks. He h...
by joer1212
Sun Jun 22, 2014 3:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 8551

Re: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Wort

If you nonetheless want you focus on relatively minor details: You only get a rebalancing bonus in specific situations which may or may not occur. You focus on buying large amounts of cheap stock during a down market, but ignore buying small amounts of expensive stock during an up market. I am taki...
by joer1212
Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Worth?
Replies: 21
Views: 1402

Re: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Wort

mhc wrote:OP,

sounds like a retirement calculator would be better. They have the monte carlo simulator and account for additional investments each year. Fidelity's and firecalc.com are the two I prefer.


Thanks, I will try it.
by joer1212
Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Worth?
Replies: 21
Views: 1402

Re: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Wort

It also doesn't factor in that you are buying overpriced shares during the bull market. And yeah you don't get the rebonusing bonus or penalty either. But none of that matters. The problem with compound calculators is that you have no way of giving it an accurate rate for the next 8 years. 7% might...
by joer1212
Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Worth?
Replies: 21
Views: 1402

Re: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Wort

You are absolutely right, this would be a very simple model that could not account for any bear market from now until 2022. But then, how can you tell there will be a bear market in this time frame? And even if there is one (or more than one), how would you know it will be over by the time you reti...
by joer1212
Thu Jun 19, 2014 12:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Worth?
Replies: 21
Views: 1402

Re: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Wort

Well, first of all you need to keep in mind that these are called 'projections' or 'simulations' for a reason... they are estimates based on a given set of assumptions. However, you should be able to improve your projections taking into account: - The estimated returns for your portfolio, based on ...
by joer1212
Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Worth?
Replies: 21
Views: 1402

Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Worth?

I have always relied on a compound interest calculator to project what my net worth will be in the year 2022, which is when I expect to retire. However, it has just dawned on me that I may have been misled. A compound Interest calculator fails to take into account that I am dollar-cost averaging , w...
by joer1212
Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Compound Calculators Accurate Predictors of Net Worth?
Replies: 21
Views: 1402

Re:

But I don't quite understand how you can implement any kind of leverage without going into debt, seems like a contradiction in terms. How about buying long term call options (LEAPS)? ...implementing a leveraged portfolio with LEAPS may not involve explicit debt, but having an option expire out of t...
by joer1212
Thu May 22, 2014 2:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ayres and Nalebuff: Young people should buy stocks on margin
Replies: 421
Views: 61010

Re:

I don't know what to say about someone whose idea of prudently dialing down risk is 120% stocks at age 51 (yes, that's age in bonds minus 71 ). But, those who are impressed by Ayres and Nalebuff's 130-year backtesting may be interested in this roulette betting system , "cluster progression rou...
by joer1212
Thu May 22, 2014 1:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ayres and Nalebuff: Young people should buy stocks on margin
Replies: 421
Views: 61010

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

This may help: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer/ Just do it. You have to realize that people are psychologically adverse to losing money. You mentioned investing 90k earlier, sure it went up last year, but it has come down some too, I am sure you have already lost more than...
by joer1212
Tue May 20, 2014 4:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

If you had an extra $10,000 sitting in your savings account, how would you allocate it right now if you could only chose between Total Stock Market Index fund (VTSAX) and Total International Stock Market Index fund (VTIAX)? What does the rest of your portfolio look like? Personally, I'd likely divi...
by joer1212
Tue May 20, 2014 3:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

I'm sympathetic to the idea of buying on the dips, but in practice it may be more difficult than it looks. Look at the dips in the chart of the year past, now assume it's march 2014 and S&P 500 is at 1849..... You wait for dip....the last one went down to 1741... Lo and behold, it goes up to 18...
by joer1212
Tue May 20, 2014 3:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

Should I do what I did at the end of 2012, boldly dumping nearly 90K all at once into these 2 funds, despite the market appearing 'overvalued' to me? That was a leap of faith that really paid off. ...but I am wondering if I could do better by waiting for a dip in the market & then buying shares...
by joer1212
Tue May 20, 2014 3:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

Should I do what I did at the end of 2012, boldly dumping nearly 90K all at once into these 2 funds, despite the market appearing 'overvalued' to me? That was a leap of faith that really paid off. ...but I am wondering if I could do better by waiting for a dip in the market & then buying shares...
by joer1212
Tue May 20, 2014 3:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

I beg to differ. If you hypothetically purchase shares at 100% cost vs. buying in when there is a 5% drop in the market, your money will buy you 5% more stock shares. Compounding this extra 5% of stock over many years will make a difference in the value of your portfolio. And hypothetically if you ...
by joer1212
Tue May 20, 2014 3:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

If you had an extra $10,000 sitting in your savings account, how would you allocate it right now if you could only chose between Total Stock Market Index fund (VTSAX) and Total International Stock Market Index fund (VTIAX)? This is the dilemma that I face right now. Both indexes seem very expensive...
by joer1212
Mon May 19, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

"Conversely, I can dollar-cost-average into both funds, but I read a Vanguard paper on the subject which concluded that, in the long run, it is superior to simply dump the money in at once and get it to work for you immediately, even if you suffer a short-term loss as a result. Hmm. I guess I ...
by joer1212
Mon May 19, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

Standard answer - what does your IPS say to do? Why do you think the indexes are expensive? You just think that all markets, worldwide, are overvalued? On what basis? I am basing it on PE ratios, and the long-term growth these two funds have experienced. I know this is no guarantee of an imminent c...
by joer1212
Mon May 19, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

That was a leap of faith that really paid off. Joer, yes, investing is an act of faith . Based on the information provided, you like both the Total Stock Market and the Total International funds. It is now time for the The Pillow Test. (1) I will be able to sleep well by investing $7k in the Total ...
by joer1212
Mon May 19, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Where to Allocate 10K Right Now

If you had an extra $10,000 sitting in your savings account, how would you allocate it right now if you could only chose between Total Stock Market Index fund (VTSAX) and Total International Stock Market Index fund (VTIAX)? This is the dilemma that I face right now. Both indexes seem very expensive,...
by joer1212
Mon May 19, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Allocate 10K Right Now
Replies: 32
Views: 1856

Re: Smid-Cap stocks

What's a Smid cap stock? Is that something between a small and mid cap or combination? :happy In all seriousness, how confident are you that you can handle the inevitable tracking error and not abandon ship when you see the total market index fund outperforming a slice and dice strategy (which it w...
by joer1212
Wed May 14, 2014 12:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smid-Cap stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 1825

Re: Smid-Cap stocks

One reason for tilting towards mid-cap and small-cap stocks is that the US Total Stock Market is not as diversified as people think. A bit over 50% of the market capitalization of the US Total Stock Market is in only the top 100 stocks. So the US Total Stock Market Index is really a large-cap index...
by joer1212
Wed May 14, 2014 12:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smid-Cap stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 1825

Re: Smid-Cap stocks

DVMResident wrote:Play with this tool:
http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ViewEfficientFrontier

Change the date ranges for each decade. The efficient frontier is a moving target.
There's no way of knowing in advance.



In that case, asset allocation is somewhat arbitrary.
by joer1212
Tue May 13, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smid-Cap stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 1825

Re: Smid-Cap stocks

Close examination of Vanguards Total US Market Fund shows a breakdown of approximately: 70% Large Cap 20% Mid Cap 10% Small Cap You could tilt small by adding to the Mid and Small Cap portions. An example would be: 50% Large Cap 25% Mid Cap 25% Small Cap If you have access to low cost value funds, ...
by joer1212
Tue May 13, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smid-Cap stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 1825

Re: Smid-Cap stocks

This is the ol' "slice-and-dice" discussion in a new form, I suppose. I think you are looking for a number that does not exist. The efficient frontier would change depending on which date range you choose to figure it out with past data. May I suggest you read some books on this, such as ...
by joer1212
Tue May 13, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smid-Cap stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 1825

Smid-Cap stocks

What percentage of domestic equity should be allocated to large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap stocks? Specifically, I want to know what are the optimal percentages of smid-cap & large-cap stocks to get the highest returns with the least amount of risk (efficient frontier) in one's diversified portf...
by joer1212
Mon May 12, 2014 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smid-Cap stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 1825

Re: Small/Mid Cap Exposure

Lots of comments are not supported by viewing the chart of 500 index, small-cap and mid-cap that I referenced earlier. I mentioned the 5-year chart, but here's the 10-year chart so we can evaluate the comments about mid-caps holding up better in downturns.... Morningstar shows a lower standard devi...
by joer1212
Sun May 11, 2014 2:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small/Mid Cap Exposure
Replies: 29
Views: 3890

Re: Qualifying for Admiral Shares

Why is he dead set on the Wellesley ? Why not just buy a target date fund? Their ERs run about the same as the admiral shares of the Wellesley (many are a little cheaper), and you would have the management fees. I thought about this myself, but after doing a little research, it appears as if the We...
by joer1212
Fri May 02, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualifying for Admiral Shares
Replies: 18
Views: 2269

Re: Qualifying for Admiral Shares

Seems like the main question, which others have asked, does the father have any other retirement accounts besides this $15K 401K? If he has $35K+ in other tax advantaged accounts, then yes it is possible to consolidate them at Vanguard and get Admiral class for Wellesley. If he has no other tax adv...
by joer1212
Fri May 02, 2014 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualifying for Admiral Shares
Replies: 18
Views: 2269

Re: Qualifying for Admiral Shares

Vanguard Wellesley Investor VWINX er=0.25% on $15,000 fund balance is $37.50/yr in expense ratio. Vanguard Wellesley Admiral VWIAX er=0.18% on $15,000 fund balance is $27/yr in expense ratio. If the 401k annual fee is more than $10.50, it would be cheaper to rollover to Vanguard IRA and investor sh...
by joer1212
Wed Apr 30, 2014 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualifying for Admiral Shares
Replies: 18
Views: 2269

Re: Qualifying for Admiral Shares

If your dad's tax situation is such that he can convert some or all of his 401k assets to Roth with no tax liability he should do so.


How would this be possible?
by joer1212
Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualifying for Admiral Shares
Replies: 18
Views: 2269

Re: Qualifying for Admiral Shares

Vanguard Wellesley Investor VWINX er=0.25% on $15,000 fund balance is $37.50/yr in expense ratio. Vanguard Wellesley Admiral VWIAX er=0.18% on $15,000 fund balance is $27/yr in expense ratio. If the 401k annual fee is more than $10.50, it would be cheaper to rollover to Vanguard IRA and investor sh...
by joer1212
Tue Apr 29, 2014 8:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualifying for Admiral Shares
Replies: 18
Views: 2269

Re: Qualifying for Admiral Shares

Sure there is! While not as clear as it can be, this statement says that each account is treated as a separate unit. The following minimums apply to individual and joint accounts, Roth and traditional IRAs, UGMA/UTMA accounts, and most other account types. So if you have a joint account with a spou...
by joer1212
Tue Apr 29, 2014 7:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualifying for Admiral Shares
Replies: 18
Views: 2269

Qualifying for Admiral Shares

My father is 70 years-old. He's considering rolling over his 401k to Vanguard before he starts taking required minimum distributions next year. He is currently invested in Van Wellesley Admiral Shares (VWIAX). He wants to roll over his 401k to exactly the same investment he has now, directly with Va...
by joer1212
Tue Apr 29, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Qualifying for Admiral Shares
Replies: 18
Views: 2269

Re: 401K Required Minimum Distribution Question

I think it's best to take the first distribution before December 31, 2014, then take another one before April 1, 2015. I don't understand why this is good. You are splitting the 2014 RMD into these two parts. Then you need to take the 2015 RMD too before December 31, 2015. So you will reduce first ...
by joer1212
Fri Mar 14, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Required Minimum Distribution Question
Replies: 10
Views: 782

Re: 401K Required Minimum Distribution Question

Thank you for the informative answers, guys. I can always depend on this forum as the last word in all matters related to money.
I think it's best to take the first distribution before December 31, 2014, then take another one before April 1, 2015.
by joer1212
Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Required Minimum Distribution Question
Replies: 10
Views: 782
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