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Re: savings and staying course with investment strategy

Robert T
This post and your recent post re total bond market vs total stock market have been refreshing.

Thanks,

Jim
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: savings and staying course with investment strategy
Replies: 8
Views: 1975

Re: Florida Retirement Communities advice/thoughts

I would like to thank every one for sharing their knowledge. I really appreciate everyone taking the time. In general, I envision parking my car for a week or two at time, maybe using a bicycle (with or without a battery powered motor) or a golf cart to get around. I had no idea one could get to nea...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Florida Retirement Communities advice/thoughts
Replies: 24
Views: 2950

Florida Retirement Communities advice/thoughts

I have not lived or spent any significant time in Florida. I am thinking about trying a retirement community there. I would like to live in a community that will allow me much less car dependent. Being right on one of the coasts is not a requirement, but being within one hours drive of the coast is....
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Florida Retirement Communities advice/thoughts
Replies: 24
Views: 2950

Re: POLL: Are You Re-Balancing?

i believe that 90% of all this rebalancing stuff is mostly a waste of time and costs extra in taxes. Maybe do it once a year if it really seems like you have to do something but 40% equity vs 50% equity probably does not really matter that much as far as risk is concerned and 10% EM vs 5% EM as part...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: POLL: Are You Re-Balancing?
Replies: 70
Views: 5028

Re: Investment advice

You are young, why not learn a bit by reading two books: The Boglehead Guide to Investing and also the Boglehead Guide to Retirement, both at Amazon. You could read on this forum for some time, read the Boglehead Wiki and learn a lot but the books are inexpensive, take only 2-3 hours, are easy to re...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment advice
Replies: 5
Views: 738

Re: close to retirement investment question

Fidelity and Vanguard both have low cost funds. Fidelity has the Spartan funds. I have everything at Vanguard except for some CDs. Consider buying the Boglehead Guide to Investing and also the Guide to Retirement at Amazon. I have read that some experts are predicting long term return on stocks to b...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: close to retirement investment question
Replies: 6
Views: 1345

Re: Electric Bike

I used to ride a bike a lot, then knee surgery.... I met a guy several months ago who had several major knee surgeries. I stopped and talked to him because I noticed his electric bike. He let me take a ride and I was impressed. I think it was this brand but not certain. http://www.currietech.com/izi...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric Bike
Replies: 16
Views: 2057

Re: Higher mathematics ?

Bogleheads: I wonder how many of us understand higher mathematics skills? I don't, and I was Chief of the Financial Division of SBA (S. Florida). Perhaps a better question is: Does in-depth analysis of past performance help us be better investors? Best wishes. Taylor Great post Taylor. Simple, grac...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Adjusted Return?
Replies: 61
Views: 4693

Re: Brokered CD's vs Bonds

The yield that I like to ride is this: a 10 year Treasury note has about 2.6-2.7% rate, a brokered FDIC insured 10 year CD has about 3.3%. I have read and will accept as a given that the CD is less liquid but I have not seen/read anything on this forum explaining exactly what that means in bid/ask t...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 12, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokered CD's vs Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2713

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Allan Roth had a article on his moneywatch blog several months ago about Vanguard's fund. If my memory is, he owns it, it is a relatively small part of his portfolio, you have to make a very long term commitment and that Vanguard had done something to the fund sometime in the past that made it less ...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 12, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3251

Re: Total Bond fund vs. Brokered CDs in 401k

I have gone to brokered CDs because a ten year Treasury note has a yield of about 2.6-2.7% and a ten year CD has about 3.3%. I pretty much have a 10 year ladder now. Vanguard has only FDIC insured CDs. Make sure you have insured CDs and keep the limits of FDIC insurance in mind. You might want to ke...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 12, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond fund vs. Brokered CDs in 401k
Replies: 8
Views: 1195

Re: Voyager Select Financial Plan - Worth It?

If it is free, what have you got to lose?

You may learn something.

I question the idea that those who know what they are doing necessarily give extra weight to small, value etc....maybe, maybe not.

Jim
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Voyager Select Financial Plan - Worth It?
Replies: 13
Views: 1878

Re: Suggestion on Asset Allocation Strategy

The Boglehead Wiki has some retirement calculators. Find some of these calculators that let you input factors such as rate of return of your portfolio, inflation, savings etc...make sure you play around with the input data to see how the results are affected. Use at least one that lets you see the p...
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestion on Asset Allocation Strategy
Replies: 2
Views: 285

Re: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"

there would not be many papers published if the summation had something to the effect of "we did not find anything significant, again".


jim
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"
Replies: 63
Views: 4295

Re: The usefulness of experts

I am considering implementing a rebalancing policy of a really bad 6 months or year or maybe to keep it simple I will rebalance if I feel like it. :sharebeer

jim
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The usefulness of experts
Replies: 23
Views: 1755

Re: 15% bracket: convert IRA or tax gain harvest?

For tax year 2013 I taxed gain harvested and paid no capital gains tax by staying under the 36K limit. I am retired, no income. I had a reason to harvest vs doing a Roth Conversion: buying a house and wanted to used my taxable account funds. In 2014 I did a Roth conversion I just lightly regret doin...
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% bracket: convert IRA or tax gain harvest?
Replies: 36
Views: 2458

Re: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 yea

What was the % holding in 2006, before the great recession? i understand those in retirement and near retirement holding less than they did formerly. I guess this would influence the over all population average but also there is 2008/2009. Wouldn't feaR have more of an affect than age? Also, jobs, j...
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years
Replies: 38
Views: 4651

Re: Future PenFed CD rates

I do not have any idea what future CD rates will be: no one does but you might get a lot of guess. I do know that through Vanguard brokerages and others you can buy a new issue 10 year CD YTM in the 3.3 range, maybe a secondary CD at 3.4. Compare that to a 30 year Treasury which as of today is at 3....
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 05, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future PenFed CD rates
Replies: 9
Views: 1508

Re: Technical Analysis Drags Down Performance

Buffett reportedly joked about this dilemma with an audience at Vanderbilt University in 2005, “I realized that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer.”


good quote, thanks for laugh

Jim
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 04, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis Drags Down Performance
Replies: 52
Views: 2453

Re: Need help picking taxable fund

I think it is generally accepted that we should treat an investment in one thing as part of our total portfolio. I, and most others, consider a CD as fixed income, different that a bond, but with similarities. So bonds and CDs are fixed income. here is a link to a post by Kevin M, read his embedded ...
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help picking taxable fund
Replies: 7
Views: 638

Re: another "kid" with a widowed 80 year old dad question

Did you ever consider a Single Premium Immediate Annuity? Maybe not all of his portfolio , but a part of it. The payments could go to his checking, nothing he will ever have to do again like renewing a CD ..... Maybe his situation does not meet the strict need for an annuity, but the simplicity and ...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: another "kid" with a widowed 80 year old dad question
Replies: 10
Views: 2522

Re: Will you obtain same result if you use a Life Strategy F

Bought LS Growth when it opened 20 years ago. Has been modestly modified over the years and is now 100% index funds, covering four Total Market Indexes. The 20% in bonds causes only modest extra income tax, and is well worth it so I can avoid rebalancing funds myself. And yes it is a few basis poin...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you obtain same result if you use a Life Strategy Fund
Replies: 28
Views: 3391

Re: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley

I am a bit of a Wellesley skeptic. From 1980 to the present the long term trend of interests rates has been steadily downward. This has been a golden era for holding bonds. Without looking it up, my guess is that long term Treasuries would have been the best investment to have in 1980 and hold until...
by jimkinny
Sat May 31, 2014 7:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley
Replies: 44
Views: 2997

Re: "This is all I know - -"

Thanks for the link to the Morningstar diehards forum. I have visited it occasionally and wondered about those early diehards. I want to thank Taylor and all of the others who are founding members of this forum. You have created, and with the help of more recent members, maintain and are building a ...
by jimkinny
Sat May 31, 2014 6:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "This is all I know - -"
Replies: 12
Views: 2505

Re: 30 year TIPS under 1%

This is the second thread started in the last several weeks that has pointed out to us that 30 year TIPS at xx%. I can understand someone who is using a liability matching strategy for retirement buying these but for 99% of other individual investors, I do not understand why anyone else would. 30 ye...
by jimkinny
Fri May 30, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPS under 1%
Replies: 25
Views: 2127

Re: Should I Care About M* Style Box?

Check out this link to the boglehead wiki that has some morningstar style boxes for Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approximating_total_stock_market At a guess your individual stocks are making you portfolio slightly off from a total market. I don't know if I woul...
by jimkinny
Fri May 30, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Care About M* Style Box?
Replies: 33
Views: 1966

Re: Beach Condo

I am thinking about buying a condo. I looked at one several days ago. Talked to several people in the building, got preliminary information regarding reserve fund, planned future spending etc.....looking good. Then I googled the name of the building and came across a state supreme court summation of...
by jimkinny
Thu May 29, 2014 7:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beach Condo
Replies: 26
Views: 3079

Re: Large Amount in Personal Savings - scared to invest

Think about buying 30 year TIPS, every year. Then all of the inflation risk is gone. Maybe hold 10-30% in broad market index funds like Vanguards total stock and total international funds.

The TIPS might be best for low risk, better than CDs.

A lot depends on your age, earnings and savings.

Jim
by jimkinny
Thu May 29, 2014 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Amount in Personal Savings - scared to invest
Replies: 48
Views: 5192

Re: If Treasury Yield's stay low.....then what?

The Fed tried to support the economy with low rates and the QE stuff. Low rates, more likely people will borrow, more likely banks will lend, business will borrow, companies build and sell more houses and cars and more people get hired and profits increase and stocks go up etc..... The Fed has been ...
by jimkinny
Mon May 26, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Treasury Yield's stay low.....then what?
Replies: 14
Views: 2331

Re: HY Savings, CDs, I-bonds, TIPS, Treasury Fund

Here is a link to a long thread discussing bonds with a lot of different views, in case you have not seen it.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=131904

jim
by jimkinny
Sat May 24, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HY Savings, CDs, I-bonds, TIPS, Treasury Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 2640

Re: Roth IRA conversion: 5 year rule question

Taylor, nice article that you linked to, thanks

jim
by jimkinny
Fri May 23, 2014 11:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA conversion: 5 year rule question
Replies: 8
Views: 956

Re: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!

Nice job, Rick. I used your paper when it first came out to show the active crowd over at Morningstar that the odds were severely stacked against them. Your generosity continues. I don't know if forum members know that you've been donating the proceeds of your books to the Wounded Warriors, so I'm ...
by jimkinny
Fri May 23, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!
Replies: 39
Views: 3227

Re: Do I need Vanguard International Bond Fund?

Vanguard had a research paper out a few years ago, prior to Vanguard having the international bond funds available. Always remember that historical data is historical data. Based upon that data, Vanguard concluded that hedged international bonds could add diversity to a portfolio and decrease overal...
by jimkinny
Fri May 23, 2014 8:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need Vanguard International Bond Fund?
Replies: 17
Views: 2167

Re: Ready to jump - $500k to invest

I agree with others: simplify but also treat your holdings as part of a total portfolio. It seems you have some of this, some of that without an overall portfolio plan. Maybe I am wrong and I apologize, if so. I have come to believe the 3 fund portfolio ( or close to it) is best for me. Here is a th...
by jimkinny
Fri May 23, 2014 7:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ready to jump - $500k to invest
Replies: 3
Views: 1198

Re: Using Dr. Pfau's research

This is a link to an article by Michael Kitches: Understanding The True Impact Of Single Premium Immediate Annuities On Retirement Income Sustainability http://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-the-true-impact-of-single-premium-immediate-annuities-on-retirement-income-sustainability/ He writes that ...
by jimkinny
Tue May 20, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Dr. Pfau's research
Replies: 27
Views: 2378

Re: Newbie w/Retirement Portfolio Questions

Being well diversified does not mean having a large number of different mutual funds. You likely are well diversified but your portfolio is too complicated for me. Keeping track of everything must take some time, assuming your plan calls holding the various funds at the % you currently hold. Here is...
by jimkinny
Tue May 20, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie w/Retirement Portfolio Questions
Replies: 11
Views: 857

Re: Financial Advice And Innovation

I agree with your article. I do not know if in ten years I would still agree but maybe. Several years ago I took some online tests ( harvard.edu I think) These tests were attempting to address how people really think and act vs how they say they would act or think about something. I can envision tha...
by jimkinny
Mon May 19, 2014 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Advice And Innovation
Replies: 7
Views: 684

Re: Changes in Work 403b Options - Help Picking New Funds

I would do most of what has been suggested: use 500 index plus extended market at 80/20 ratio, use Vanguard Total International and TBM. Inflation Protected bonds are generally recommended for those who have inflation risk exposure greater than most, like retirees. Wages generally keep up with infla...
by jimkinny
Mon May 19, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changes in Work 403b Options - Help Picking New Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 433

Re: Asset Allocation among Large, Medium, Small

this is how I would handle it. I would ignore deviations of 5% or so because in the long run it will not matter, likely a higher deviation won't matter much either. The link takes you to the Boglehead Wiki: Approximating the TSM fund http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approximating_total_stock_market jim
by jimkinny
Sun May 18, 2014 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation among Large, Medium, Small
Replies: 9
Views: 636

Re: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse

I am fairly pleased how selling some TIPS that had 8-9 years left to maturity worked out early last year. I am glad I sold Vanguards longer duration TIPS fund around the same time. I regret not heading Alan Roth's analysis sooner. He starting writing about this maybe 3 years ago, 2 years ago for sur...
by jimkinny
Sat May 17, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More evidence of the predicted bond apocalypse
Replies: 38
Views: 4046

Re: Intermediate bond fund yields are getting ridiculous

It seems as if yields have been this low for a very long but this may be just our tendency to have a short term view. Yields may stay this low for 10 years, maybe next year we will be 1% higher, maybe ..... As I recall the low for 10 year Treasuries was about one year ago at 1.6%, now at 2.6%. If th...
by jimkinny
Thu May 15, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate bond fund yields are getting ridiculous
Replies: 20
Views: 2682

Re: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?

op wrote If such is the case, how should one structure a portfolio given such possibility, however remote, can happen to any US total stock market index? I know that you must hold a portfolio with bonds and international asset classes as well but the US stock index fund is your workhorse and has the...
by jimkinny
Tue May 13, 2014 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?
Replies: 40
Views: 5727

Re: Are Single Premium Annuities a good deal?

I suppose retrospectively one could say the annuity you purchased was a good deal if you live longer than the insurance company thinks someone like you will live. Other than that, they could be consider a good deal if they give you peace of mind or by some other subjective measure. I think they are ...
by jimkinny
Tue May 13, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Single Premium Annuities a good deal?
Replies: 91
Views: 4325

Re: Books for someone who is not that interested

Boglehead Guide to Investing on Amazon

It only takes a couple hours to read, covers all the bases.

jim
by jimkinny
Tue May 13, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Books for someone who is not that interested
Replies: 48
Views: 3425

Re: Bogleheads Wiki: 2014 Annual Report

Thanks to every one involved, wonderful resource.

All first time posters should get an message and an embedded link to the Wiki. Maybe a FAQ? How many times have the lump sum vs whatever been asked?

JIm
by jimkinny
Tue May 13, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Wiki: 2014 Annual Report
Replies: 4
Views: 553

Re: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than l

nisi wrote: I think small stocks have greater expected returns than large. I don't think they have greater expected risk-adjusted returns than large. I don't think anybody claims they do. I am pretty much on board with this. If there is a "free lunch", it is vanishing small and my guess is...
by jimkinny
Mon May 12, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than large
Replies: 78
Views: 4799

Re: Can I be a boglehead and join a golf club?

I would not put the cost of a country club on a credit card that I could not pay off but gosh, we only get one life. If you can save for retirement, have a plan in place and can afford to join a club, take vacations etc ... and live within your means, why not do so if you would enjoy it?

Jim
by jimkinny
Sun May 11, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I be a boglehead and join a golf club?
Replies: 70
Views: 4609

Re: WSJ story on IRA rollovers

Alan S. Thanks for the warning re multiple CDs and how banks have dealt with maturing CDs in the past. I thought I was being clever by splitting my IRA rollover to a new custodial bank several years ago into several CDs, all maturing at the same time. I did this in case I wanted to do an early withd...
by jimkinny
Sun May 11, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WSJ story on IRA rollovers
Replies: 11
Views: 1478

Re: Part 2 of the international bond post

I think Vanguard presented evidence to support adding international bonds to a portfolio that was somewhat underwhelming.

I do not understand how the Vanguard evidence really supports adding international bonds beyond a trivial reduction in volatility.

jim
by jimkinny
Sat May 10, 2014 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the international bond post
Replies: 16
Views: 1490
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