Search found 1187 matches

by jimkinny
Mon Aug 03, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing
Replies: 35
Views: 2715

Re: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing

rca1824 wrote: I see two different strategies people use here: --- Which one do you use and why? The answer is: None of the Above. Most financial economists recommend having a source guaranteed lifetime retirement income which include SS, pension, annuities (SPIAs, DIAs), government bonds, CDs, etc...
by jimkinny
Mon Aug 03, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?
Replies: 47
Views: 4578

Re: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?

Shrug. That's the virtue of just being a dumb investor who blindly accepts cap-weighting. I never bought into the emerging markets hype, but was grudgingly willing to accept the measly 18% or 13% allocation (depending on whose definition of emerging markets you use, and that in itself is pretty rev...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Handling Medical Expenses in Retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 1393

Re: Handling Medical Expenses in Retirement

Medical is easy. Just get a Plan F supplement. It's the Part D that's tricky! I opted for the cheapest plan out there, as an afterthought, and ended up paying through the nose for expensive eye meds for a cataract operation pre- and post- treatment. They were not on the formulary, or something. I w...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Tips Its Hand!
Replies: 14
Views: 2701

Re: Fed Tips Its Hand!

The Fed Reserve has been telling any one interested in reading the FOMC minutes exactly what is going to do, depending upon an uncertain future.
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market’s Got It All Wrong ?
Replies: 10
Views: 1685

Re: Bond Market’s Got It All Wrong ?

The Fed's favorite inflation guage has over-estimated the actual level of market-measured inflation for 9 of the past 10 years. From the article: “The Fed’s point of view is, more or less, time heals all wounds, at some point things will be normal-ish, and that inflation ought to be higher, particu...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lesson learned about RBD [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 29
Views: 2547

Re: Lesson learned about RBD

OP: lesson learned.

We all have learned these lessons.

Passive investing is kind of like the giving up on oneself"s ability to control the universe.
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard and CDs
Replies: 6
Views: 941

Re: Vanguard and CDs

the second CD has a call option. I would likely pass on that one just because when I buy a CD as part of a ladder, I intend to keep it to maturity and do not want it called early depending upon the banks opton. I would have guessed that with the call option, it would yield more, but it does not. May...
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2666

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

I went to Catholic schools. I am old enough to have had nuns teaching many classes.

They would have called checking one's portfolio an "occasion of sin" :D
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts on the Greek crisis
Replies: 8
Views: 1580

Re: My thoughts on the Greek crisis

As always, nice article.
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why did you take SS at FRA instead of delaying until 70?
Replies: 69
Views: 7603

Re: Why did you take SS at FRA instead of delaying until 70?

Filed at 68 and 7 months instead of waiting till 70. Reasons: ... 2) Did not want to extend the break even age any further. ... I could be wrong, but my understanding is that the break even point is the same no matter when you file. So if you waited until 70, you would be missing payments for anoth...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD: value of early withdrawal option
Replies: 9
Views: 966

Re: CD: value of early withdrawal option

The reason I posted the question is because I simply do not know what the value really is of the option of early withdrawal. Several years ago I recall reading a blog post that the bump rate CDs were not worth the extra cost, do not remember the source (kind of like extended warranties) and I was s...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD: value of early withdrawal option
Replies: 9
Views: 966

Re: CD: value of early withdrawal option

thanks for sharing your thoughts. The reason I posted the question is because I simply do not know what the value really is of the option of early withdrawal. Several years ago I recall reading a blog post that the bump rate CDs were not worth the extra cost, do not remember the source (kind of like...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD: value of early withdrawal option
Replies: 9
Views: 966

CD: value of early withdrawal option

Last year I exercised the the early withdrwal option on a CD and paid an early withdrawal penalty. 1) I think I had about 3 years left out of the 5 year CD until maturity. After selling, I realized what ogd posted about in anther thread and that was that if I wanted to buy a new 3 year CD, the ytm w...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: diminishing liquidity premium
Replies: 4
Views: 711

Re: diminishing liquidity premium

My understanding of the article was that it did not posit that a 1% drop in transaction cost led to an increase in valuation. Rather, I think it was claiming that a 1% drop in discount rate leads to the increase in valuation. Fundamental analysis of a stock value involves projecting out the future ...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: diminishing liquidity premium
Replies: 4
Views: 711

Re: diminishing liquidity premium

Thank you for posting the link, always interesting stuff I do not understand the causal relation between a 1% decrease in transactional costs and a 10% or so increase in valuation. Is it thought that I will pay more for an object if the shipping costs goes from $10 to $5 in an efficient market or th...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise
Replies: 36
Views: 5977

Re: Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise

Down 60% from peak, looks pretty exciting. This is an area that is kind of interesting: politics, economics and investing. I had been thinking after Greek exited the Euro and had gotten control of their own currency and markets had reopened, then it might be a good time to find an ETF based upon Gr...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5623

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

Although there are drawbacks to CDs, the extra yield over Treasuries is worth it to me. If one wants to compare to TBM fund, this fund has longer average term than a 10 year ladder of CDs and more credit risk One would expect the TBM fund to perform better than CDs, but they do not, for now anyway :...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 14, 2015 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5929

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

In part 4 of Bermake's blog post re interest rates he shows a graph, fig. 3, plotting 10 year Treasury yield, term premium and risk-neutral yield over time. The estimated risk-neutral yield is about 2-2.5% above the actual term premium as of most current data points. This is just another way of say...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2236

Re: Government bond defaults

Well, I would mostly agree, might quibble a bit but...... It seems to me the ideal of a united Europe is what will keep Greece as part of Euro, if the citizens and politicians allow it. France in last several days is expressing this notion, I think. My point I guess in post was that forming a union...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5929

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

In part 4 of Bermake's blog post re interest rates he shows a graph, fig. 3, plotting 10 year Treasury yield, term premium and risk-neutral yield over time. The estimated risk-neutral yield is about 2-2.5% above the actual term premium as of most current data points. I understand that Bernake discus...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 12, 2015 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3608

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

OP I read maybe 2/3 of posts on this thread. I am going to try to be nice. Larry Swedroe wrote in one of his books or maybe blog posts that the only investing information we should put any credence in is from academia. Broad based, low cost index funds is well accepted academically. It is know that ...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2236

Re: Government bond defaults

Well, I would mostly agree, might quibble a bit but...... It seems to me the ideal of a united Europe is what will keep Greece as part of Euro, if the citizens and politicians allow it. France in last several days is expressing this notion, I think. My point I guess in post was that forming a union ...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cd vs corp bond
Replies: 13
Views: 1086

Re: Cd vs corp bond

I am not apposed to the idea of buying a 10 year corporate bond. I do not have the link, but Alan Roth wrote a blog post that I read n the last 3 months explaining how the yield is not always what it seems on corporate bonds due to pricing and fees. I think it was in a ARUP blog post that I read the...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2236

Re: Government bond defaults

The Greek gov actually lied about what they were spending and what they were getting as income, in order to join Euro and after joining Euro. Moral out rage now from Germans, but I have also read that many people were quite aware of Greece's deceptions but the ideal of a united Europe placed some f...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 11, 2015 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 year CD @ 2.4% - a good deal?
Replies: 32
Views: 4570

Re: 5 year CD @ 2.4% - a good deal?

For me the convenience of buying brokered CDs in an IRA outweigh the very valuable early withdrawal option of direct CDs.

Make sure the CD is insured.

If not for the IRA issue I might reconsider and buy more direct CDs.
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5929

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

I have read that demand by pension funds has increased for two reasons: lowering risk due to lack of need for risk due to equity increases over last several years. % funding of pension obligations has increased. Also some regulation change. I am not sure what this but seems that I read in hazy past ...
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 3037

Re: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?

OP, what do you think of evidence that those who do nothing for years, do better than those who do something? Does that "evidence" include those who rebalance? If so, they are doing something not nothing. It is just that they picked a target range or date in advance to do their "some...
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5929

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

Thanks every one and a special thanks to doc, Kevin M and ogd for sharing your time and knowledge.
Jim
by jimkinny
Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5929

Re: If you don't care about volatility, is long-term bonds better than total bond?

Could be wrong about my attribution but I think Larry Swedroe wrote about this in one of his book(s) that historically the return for the risk of LT bonds was not as good as intermediate. Larry has advocated that extended duration is worth it if you can gain 20 bps per year. For discussion we have ...
by jimkinny
Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2236

Re: Government bond defaults

At the federal level, fed gov bonds do not default because a country can inflate their currency and get out from under the debt that way. Greece can not do this. In the Euro, they do not have their own currency. Simple as that. Argentina had bonds I am 99% sure that are tied to the US dollar. The bo...
by jimkinny
Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 3037

Re: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?

So far today, yesterday would have been the better day. :happy precisely. OP, what do you think of evidence that those who do nothing for years, do better than those who do something? I have been thinking that maybe I would do some gambling, take 1-2% of portfolio and if greece leaves euro, buy som...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ss or wait
Replies: 12
Views: 1314

Re: ss or wait

To my knowledge, all of the changes made to SS over the years have been implemented very gradually and with a fairly long lead time before they take effect. More likely than a cut to benefits will be adjustments to inflation calculation for those receiving benefits, delaying the age of full retireme...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5929

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

Kevin's chart is really interesting but in a way not surprising. Recessions have different causes and circumstances can be vastly different. I am no expert but circa 1930 US on gold standard, no FDIC, no safety net, many protective tariffs, fed started monetary tightening then and 1937. I vaguely re...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5929

Re: If you don't care about volatility, is long-term bonds better than total bond?

For what it's worth, Morningstar is showing 15-year Sharpe ratios of: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, VBMFX 0.96 Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index, VBLTX 0.64 so, on the face of it, over the past 15 years, VBLTX investors did not receive extra return that was commensurate with the extra volatility. C...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3570

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

It seems to me that posters who have commented on the affect of this on EM funds doesn't mean much but I think misses much of the point. Greece has been getting all of headlines it seems for just about forever. My understanding is that in last 4 years or so, Euro nations have transferred Greek debt ...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

Re: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?

How can one add non-brokered CDs to IRA accounts at major brokerage firms such as Vanguard, Schwab or Fidelity? You can't, but you can do a direct trustee-to-trustee transfer to a bank or credit union and buy the IRA CD there. I have done many such transfers from Vanguard and Fidelity to various ba...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2733

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Jimkinny commented about the 58-year look back that the take-aways might suggest "a bit of authority is not warranted." Vanguard, a credible investing authority, published a 2011 whitepaper titled: "Recessions and balanced portfolio returns." They made a thoughtful suggestion --...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2733

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

[quote"The data presented here illustrates that the relationship between the market and recessions varies widely. Investment planning based on recession forecasting is definitely not a foolproof strategy." ][/quote] Then later, 44.4% of the time, equities went up in recessions. Indeed, not...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3570

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

Yes, interesting stuff going on there. I did not know about the MF rules re 30% value decrease.

jim
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?
Replies: 17
Views: 1314

Re: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?

I do not think you can get a "non brokered" CD from a broker. I have brokered and "direct" CDs in IRAs from 3 different institutions. Alan S. posted about the interpretation changes re IRS rules around transferring IRS funds about one year ago. Because of his posts I did a truste...
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 8482

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

larry, I agree, the paper is done very well in presenting the profligacy of Greece's gov post Euro. Krugman's blog and Mathew Yglesias at Vox present a somewhat different take, not on the Greece's bad gov, but Euro power mistakes and perhaps equally bad government of the Union as a whole. Long story...
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On your deathbed will you say "darn, I wish I had invested in smart-beta"?
Replies: 11
Views: 1477

Re: On your deathbed will you say "darn, I wish I had invested in smart-beta"?

I know the title of this post mentions a death bed but I do not see that in the body of quoted material. I see [quoteWhat we can say is pretty simple: No one who is 50 or 60 today is going to reach retirement age, fall short of their goals and say, “Darn, I could have stopped working now if only I h...
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 27
Views: 2813

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

I own some 10 year brokered CDs (now 9 ytm). I intend to buy some more once some other CDs mature later this year. Consider buying some secondary market CDs. New issue CDs (at Vanguard) are available for 1-5, 7 and 10 year (not sure of some of shorter maturities) but 5, 7 and 10 for sure. You can al...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...
Replies: 12
Views: 2450

Re: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...

Larry Swedroe in one of his books or maybe in one or more of his blogs posts went thru the opportunity cost for those who choose to wait to invest in bonds. Each time period must have a higher and higher yield in order to compensate for interest rate income that was not gained because one was waitin...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No gain in 9 months of investment
Replies: 23
Views: 4753

Re: No gain in 9 months of investment

The only sane way to think of investing is as a commitment to the long term, 15-40 years. You can look up the frequency that equity and bond returns have been positive or negative in the past. Some years are great, some just awful, terrible, many years are up a bit, many down a bit. You can not cont...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6621

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

5. Self-selection by Bogleheads who choose to respond to polls. In other words, "Bogleheads forum readers who choose to respond to polls about asset allocation are more aggressive..." In case you haven't noticed, the Advisory Board agreed to disable the facility for creating polls in this...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment education/research
Replies: 8
Views: 672

Re: investment education/research

I would not subscribe to anything. All of that stuff you mentioned is just an attempt to sell you stuff. I have pretty much accepted that the markets set prices and those prices will be fairly efficient, over the long term and this may mean 30 years. The science people have known for a long time tha...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing BND before rate increases
Replies: 34
Views: 3433

Re: Reducing BND before rate increases

There is nothing wrong with keeping 5% in cash, unless you are doing it so that you can take advantage of your knowledge that bonds are going to drop in value. The fed controls one rate, directly, the overnight rate. This has nothing to do with the bid/auction price of an fed agency, Treasury or cor...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 20, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying a CD at Vanguard
Replies: 17
Views: 3983

Re: Buying a CD at Vanguard

There’s little if any liquidity; often the only chance at par is a death put option (and you certainly don’t want par for that!). Counterparties who might bid on your CD with a relatively small face value are few and far between and consequently any bid may fall well below expectations. My experien...
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Did you spend much time wringing your hands over Retirement Savings as Many on Forum Do Today?
Replies: 98
Views: 14709

Re: Retirees: Did you spend much time wringing your hands over Retirement Savings as Many on Forum Do Today?

No, no great angst over savings. I had enough in SS to pretty much cover basic expenses, smallish pensions were nice to have but not ver important and savings put me well into comfort zone.

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