Search found 1196 matches

by jimkinny
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike
Replies: 27
Views: 1581

Re: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike

Alan, thanks for posting. I was on the fence , thinking I might start SS in December or wait another year. December is ruled out now. I am surprised that the article indicates October as the limiting time factor. I thought SS required a lead time of 3 months and the article indicated one had to be e...
by jimkinny
Sat Aug 22, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 7690

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

What combination of duration and drop in the market might break your resolve? 20%/two months?, 20%/two years, 40%/four months?,40%/four years?, or whatever. It is possible since there is a surplus of capacity/labor and a scarcity of jobs. Yes, whatever, the cause does not matter. I am at an allocat...
by jimkinny
Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own foreign stocks?
Replies: 67
Views: 3870

Re: Should you own foreign stocks?

There is a portfolio benefit to re-balancing currencies to a fixed US/International allocation over time. Rick Ferri Rick, thanks for posting the link to your article. Interesting to see the data available. I suppose it goes both ways: large non USA companies getting a lot of revenues from US. As I...
by jimkinny
Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Income/Bond Allocation Suggestions
Replies: 25
Views: 2001

Re: Fixed Income/Bond Allocation Suggestions

As Kevin wrote, too bad you can not use the stable value for most/all of fixed income. Yields are what they are, there is no magic, but the option Kevin discussed is about the best we can do now without taking on a lot of term and/or credit risk. I differ slightly from Kevin in that I have a 10 year...
by jimkinny
Sat Aug 15, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part of Emergency Fund in CD Ladder?
Replies: 7
Views: 757

Re: Part of Emergency Fund in CD Ladder?

Read the terms and conditions of Synchony carefully, make sure you understand any restrictions that may exist for early withdrawal, in addition to the penalty. Some banks reserve the right to restrict or prohibited early withdrawals, if the bank chooses to do, even though they may allow early withdr...
by jimkinny
Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Big AAPL and the S&P 500
Replies: 20
Views: 3013

Re: The Big AAPL and the S&P 500

Thanks for the reminder. Seems that every year we hear that 10 +/- days per year account for almost all of the return for some index and that some small number of companies in that index account for almost all of the return for that index. Impossible to pick the days or those companies, although som...
by jimkinny
Sat Aug 08, 2015 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate forecasts are garbage and best ignored
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Interest rate forecasts are garbage and best ignored

Always good to be reminded of what should be a foundation of any investment plan and that is to ignore forecasts.
by jimkinny
Wed Aug 05, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: strategy to convert traditional ira to roth
Replies: 6
Views: 494

Re: strategy to convert traditional ira to roth

I am not an expert. Some issues I considered were attempting to estimate my tax bracket after starting RMDs, how much of a cushion did I have post RMDs before I was in the next higher tax bracket because a TIRA can grow a lot over time and I spent time learning how SS is taxed. Also, consider states...
by jimkinny
Wed Aug 05, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates
Replies: 63
Views: 6212

Re: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates

It actually looks like we've been in a bit of an uptrend since late 2011, and are at about the level we started at in early 1953. Excellent analysis, but probably not the best historical comparison Thanks. The purpose wasn't to find a past period that may resemble the future going forward from here...
by jimkinny
Mon Aug 03, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing
Replies: 41
Views: 3431

Re: Which is more optimal in retirement? Total return vs. income investing

rca1824 wrote: I see two different strategies people use here: --- Which one do you use and why? The answer is: None of the Above. Most financial economists recommend having a source guaranteed lifetime retirement income which include SS, pension, annuities (SPIAs, DIAs), government bonds, CDs, etc...
by jimkinny
Mon Aug 03, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?
Replies: 47
Views: 4842

Re: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?

Shrug. That's the virtue of just being a dumb investor who blindly accepts cap-weighting. I never bought into the emerging markets hype, but was grudgingly willing to accept the measly 18% or 13% allocation (depending on whose definition of emerging markets you use, and that in itself is pretty rev...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Handling Medical Expenses in Retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 1414

Re: Handling Medical Expenses in Retirement

Medical is easy. Just get a Plan F supplement. It's the Part D that's tricky! I opted for the cheapest plan out there, as an afterthought, and ended up paying through the nose for expensive eye meds for a cataract operation pre- and post- treatment. They were not on the formulary, or something. I w...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Tips Its Hand!
Replies: 14
Views: 2715

Re: Fed Tips Its Hand!

The Fed Reserve has been telling any one interested in reading the FOMC minutes exactly what is going to do, depending upon an uncertain future.
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market’s Got It All Wrong ?
Replies: 10
Views: 1712

Re: Bond Market’s Got It All Wrong ?

The Fed's favorite inflation guage has over-estimated the actual level of market-measured inflation for 9 of the past 10 years. From the article: “The Fed’s point of view is, more or less, time heals all wounds, at some point things will be normal-ish, and that inflation ought to be higher, particu...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lesson learned about RBD [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 29
Views: 2592

Re: Lesson learned about RBD

OP: lesson learned.

We all have learned these lessons.

Passive investing is kind of like the giving up on oneself"s ability to control the universe.
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard and CDs
Replies: 6
Views: 977

Re: Vanguard and CDs

the second CD has a call option. I would likely pass on that one just because when I buy a CD as part of a ladder, I intend to keep it to maturity and do not want it called early depending upon the banks opton. I would have guessed that with the call option, it would yield more, but it does not. May...
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2703

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

I went to Catholic schools. I am old enough to have had nuns teaching many classes.

They would have called checking one's portfolio an "occasion of sin" :D
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts on the Greek crisis
Replies: 8
Views: 1591

Re: My thoughts on the Greek crisis

As always, nice article.
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why did you take SS at FRA instead of delaying until 70?
Replies: 69
Views: 7734

Re: Why did you take SS at FRA instead of delaying until 70?

Filed at 68 and 7 months instead of waiting till 70. Reasons: ... 2) Did not want to extend the break even age any further. ... I could be wrong, but my understanding is that the break even point is the same no matter when you file. So if you waited until 70, you would be missing payments for anoth...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD: value of early withdrawal option
Replies: 9
Views: 983

Re: CD: value of early withdrawal option

The reason I posted the question is because I simply do not know what the value really is of the option of early withdrawal. Several years ago I recall reading a blog post that the bump rate CDs were not worth the extra cost, do not remember the source (kind of like extended warranties) and I was s...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD: value of early withdrawal option
Replies: 9
Views: 983

Re: CD: value of early withdrawal option

thanks for sharing your thoughts. The reason I posted the question is because I simply do not know what the value really is of the option of early withdrawal. Several years ago I recall reading a blog post that the bump rate CDs were not worth the extra cost, do not remember the source (kind of like...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CD: value of early withdrawal option
Replies: 9
Views: 983

CD: value of early withdrawal option

Last year I exercised the the early withdrwal option on a CD and paid an early withdrawal penalty. 1) I think I had about 3 years left out of the 5 year CD until maturity. After selling, I realized what ogd posted about in anther thread and that was that if I wanted to buy a new 3 year CD, the ytm w...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: diminishing liquidity premium
Replies: 4
Views: 719

Re: diminishing liquidity premium

My understanding of the article was that it did not posit that a 1% drop in transaction cost led to an increase in valuation. Rather, I think it was claiming that a 1% drop in discount rate leads to the increase in valuation. Fundamental analysis of a stock value involves projecting out the future ...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: diminishing liquidity premium
Replies: 4
Views: 719

Re: diminishing liquidity premium

Thank you for posting the link, always interesting stuff I do not understand the causal relation between a 1% decrease in transactional costs and a 10% or so increase in valuation. Is it thought that I will pay more for an object if the shipping costs goes from $10 to $5 in an efficient market or th...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise
Replies: 36
Views: 6018

Re: Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise

Down 60% from peak, looks pretty exciting. This is an area that is kind of interesting: politics, economics and investing. I had been thinking after Greek exited the Euro and had gotten control of their own currency and markets had reopened, then it might be a good time to find an ETF based upon Gr...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5725

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

Although there are drawbacks to CDs, the extra yield over Treasuries is worth it to me. If one wants to compare to TBM fund, this fund has longer average term than a 10 year ladder of CDs and more credit risk One would expect the TBM fund to perform better than CDs, but they do not, for now anyway :...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 14, 2015 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 6002

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

In part 4 of Bermake's blog post re interest rates he shows a graph, fig. 3, plotting 10 year Treasury yield, term premium and risk-neutral yield over time. The estimated risk-neutral yield is about 2-2.5% above the actual term premium as of most current data points. This is just another way of say...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2262

Re: Government bond defaults

Well, I would mostly agree, might quibble a bit but...... It seems to me the ideal of a united Europe is what will keep Greece as part of Euro, if the citizens and politicians allow it. France in last several days is expressing this notion, I think. My point I guess in post was that forming a union...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 6002

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

In part 4 of Bermake's blog post re interest rates he shows a graph, fig. 3, plotting 10 year Treasury yield, term premium and risk-neutral yield over time. The estimated risk-neutral yield is about 2-2.5% above the actual term premium as of most current data points. I understand that Bernake discus...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 12, 2015 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3664

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

OP I read maybe 2/3 of posts on this thread. I am going to try to be nice. Larry Swedroe wrote in one of his books or maybe blog posts that the only investing information we should put any credence in is from academia. Broad based, low cost index funds is well accepted academically. It is know that ...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2262

Re: Government bond defaults

Well, I would mostly agree, might quibble a bit but...... It seems to me the ideal of a united Europe is what will keep Greece as part of Euro, if the citizens and politicians allow it. France in last several days is expressing this notion, I think. My point I guess in post was that forming a union ...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cd vs corp bond
Replies: 13
Views: 1114

Re: Cd vs corp bond

I am not apposed to the idea of buying a 10 year corporate bond. I do not have the link, but Alan Roth wrote a blog post that I read n the last 3 months explaining how the yield is not always what it seems on corporate bonds due to pricing and fees. I think it was in a ARUP blog post that I read the...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2262

Re: Government bond defaults

The Greek gov actually lied about what they were spending and what they were getting as income, in order to join Euro and after joining Euro. Moral out rage now from Germans, but I have also read that many people were quite aware of Greece's deceptions but the ideal of a united Europe placed some f...
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 11, 2015 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 year CD @ 2.4% - a good deal?
Replies: 32
Views: 4633

Re: 5 year CD @ 2.4% - a good deal?

For me the convenience of buying brokered CDs in an IRA outweigh the very valuable early withdrawal option of direct CDs.

Make sure the CD is insured.

If not for the IRA issue I might reconsider and buy more direct CDs.
by jimkinny
Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 6002

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

I have read that demand by pension funds has increased for two reasons: lowering risk due to lack of need for risk due to equity increases over last several years. % funding of pension obligations has increased. Also some regulation change. I am not sure what this but seems that I read in hazy past ...
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 3081

Re: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?

OP, what do you think of evidence that those who do nothing for years, do better than those who do something? Does that "evidence" include those who rebalance? If so, they are doing something not nothing. It is just that they picked a target range or date in advance to do their "some...
by jimkinny
Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 6002

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

Thanks every one and a special thanks to doc, Kevin M and ogd for sharing your time and knowledge.
Jim
by jimkinny
Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 6002

Re: If you don't care about volatility, is long-term bonds better than total bond?

Could be wrong about my attribution but I think Larry Swedroe wrote about this in one of his book(s) that historically the return for the risk of LT bonds was not as good as intermediate. Larry has advocated that extended duration is worth it if you can gain 20 bps per year. For discussion we have ...
by jimkinny
Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government bond defaults
Replies: 29
Views: 2262

Re: Government bond defaults

At the federal level, fed gov bonds do not default because a country can inflate their currency and get out from under the debt that way. Greece can not do this. In the Euro, they do not have their own currency. Simple as that. Argentina had bonds I am 99% sure that are tied to the US dollar. The bo...
by jimkinny
Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 3081

Re: Silly question...better to invest now in intl stocks?

So far today, yesterday would have been the better day. :happy precisely. OP, what do you think of evidence that those who do nothing for years, do better than those who do something? I have been thinking that maybe I would do some gambling, take 1-2% of portfolio and if greece leaves euro, buy som...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ss or wait
Replies: 12
Views: 1322

Re: ss or wait

To my knowledge, all of the changes made to SS over the years have been implemented very gradually and with a fairly long lead time before they take effect. More likely than a cut to benefits will be adjustments to inflation calculation for those receiving benefits, delaying the age of full retireme...
by jimkinny
Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 6002

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

Kevin's chart is really interesting but in a way not surprising. Recessions have different causes and circumstances can be vastly different. I am no expert but circa 1930 US on gold standard, no FDIC, no safety net, many protective tariffs, fed started monetary tightening then and 1937. I vaguely re...
by jimkinny
Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 6002

Re: If you don't care about volatility, is long-term bonds better than total bond?

For what it's worth, Morningstar is showing 15-year Sharpe ratios of: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, VBMFX 0.96 Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index, VBLTX 0.64 so, on the face of it, over the past 15 years, VBLTX investors did not receive extra return that was commensurate with the extra volatility. C...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3608

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

It seems to me that posters who have commented on the affect of this on EM funds doesn't mean much but I think misses much of the point. Greece has been getting all of headlines it seems for just about forever. My understanding is that in last 4 years or so, Euro nations have transferred Greek debt ...
by jimkinny
Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?
Replies: 17
Views: 1332

Re: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?

How can one add non-brokered CDs to IRA accounts at major brokerage firms such as Vanguard, Schwab or Fidelity? You can't, but you can do a direct trustee-to-trustee transfer to a bank or credit union and buy the IRA CD there. I have done many such transfers from Vanguard and Fidelity to various ba...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2756

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Jimkinny commented about the 58-year look back that the take-aways might suggest "a bit of authority is not warranted." Vanguard, a credible investing authority, published a 2011 whitepaper titled: "Recessions and balanced portfolio returns." They made a thoughtful suggestion --...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2756

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

[quote"The data presented here illustrates that the relationship between the market and recessions varies widely. Investment planning based on recession forecasting is definitely not a foolproof strategy." ][/quote] Then later, 44.4% of the time, equities went up in recessions. Indeed, not...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3608

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

Yes, interesting stuff going on there. I did not know about the MF rules re 30% value decrease.

jim
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?
Replies: 17
Views: 1332

Re: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?

I do not think you can get a "non brokered" CD from a broker. I have brokered and "direct" CDs in IRAs from 3 different institutions. Alan S. posted about the interpretation changes re IRS rules around transferring IRS funds about one year ago. Because of his posts I did a truste...
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 8547

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

larry, I agree, the paper is done very well in presenting the profligacy of Greece's gov post Euro. Krugman's blog and Mathew Yglesias at Vox present a somewhat different take, not on the Greece's bad gov, but Euro power mistakes and perhaps equally bad government of the Union as a whole. Long story...

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