Search found 1150 matches

by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 4
Views: 538

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

[quote"The data presented here illustrates that the relationship between the market and recessions varies widely. Investment planning based on recession forecasting is definitely not a foolproof strategy." ][/quote] Then later, 44.4% of the time, equities went up in recessions. Indeed, not...
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 2
Views: 220

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

Yes, interesting stuff going on there. I did not know about the MF rules re 30% value decrease.

jim
by jimkinny
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?
Replies: 5
Views: 388

Re: How Can One Add a "Non-Brokered" CD to IRA Accounts?

I do not think you can get a "non brokered" CD from a broker. I have brokered and "direct" CDs in IRAs from 3 different institutions. Alan S. posted about the interpretation changes re IRS rules around transferring IRS funds about one year ago. Because of his posts I did a truste...
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 6995

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

larry, I agree, the paper is done very well in presenting the profligacy of Greece's gov post Euro. Krugman's blog and Mathew Yglesias at Vox present a somewhat different take, not on the Greece's bad gov, but Euro power mistakes and perhaps equally bad government of the Union as a whole. Long story...
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On your deathbed will you say "darn, I wish I had invested in smart-beta"?
Replies: 11
Views: 1367

Re: On your deathbed will you say "darn, I wish I had invested in smart-beta"?

I know the title of this post mentions a death bed but I do not see that in the body of quoted material. I see [quoteWhat we can say is pretty simple: No one who is 50 or 60 today is going to reach retirement age, fall short of their goals and say, “Darn, I could have stopped working now if only I h...
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 27
Views: 2511

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

I own some 10 year brokered CDs (now 9 ytm). I intend to buy some more once some other CDs mature later this year. Consider buying some secondary market CDs. New issue CDs (at Vanguard) are available for 1-5, 7 and 10 year (not sure of some of shorter maturities) but 5, 7 and 10 for sure. You can al...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...
Replies: 12
Views: 2329

Re: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...

Larry Swedroe in one of his books or maybe in one or more of his blogs posts went thru the opportunity cost for those who choose to wait to invest in bonds. Each time period must have a higher and higher yield in order to compensate for interest rate income that was not gained because one was waitin...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No gain in 9 months of investment
Replies: 23
Views: 4360

Re: No gain in 9 months of investment

The only sane way to think of investing is as a commitment to the long term, 15-40 years. You can look up the frequency that equity and bond returns have been positive or negative in the past. Some years are great, some just awful, terrible, many years are up a bit, many down a bit. You can not cont...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6037

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

5. Self-selection by Bogleheads who choose to respond to polls. In other words, "Bogleheads forum readers who choose to respond to polls about asset allocation are more aggressive..." In case you haven't noticed, the Advisory Board agreed to disable the facility for creating polls in this...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment education/research
Replies: 8
Views: 631

Re: investment education/research

I would not subscribe to anything. All of that stuff you mentioned is just an attempt to sell you stuff. I have pretty much accepted that the markets set prices and those prices will be fairly efficient, over the long term and this may mean 30 years. The science people have known for a long time tha...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing BND before rate increases
Replies: 34
Views: 3115

Re: Reducing BND before rate increases

There is nothing wrong with keeping 5% in cash, unless you are doing it so that you can take advantage of your knowledge that bonds are going to drop in value. The fed controls one rate, directly, the overnight rate. This has nothing to do with the bid/auction price of an fed agency, Treasury or cor...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 20, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying a CD at Vanguard
Replies: 17
Views: 3786

Re: Buying a CD at Vanguard

There’s little if any liquidity; often the only chance at par is a death put option (and you certainly don’t want par for that!). Counterparties who might bid on your CD with a relatively small face value are few and far between and consequently any bid may fall well below expectations. My experien...
by jimkinny
Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Did you spend much time wringing your hands over Retirement Savings as Many on Forum Do Today?
Replies: 81
Views: 11482

Re: Retirees: Did you spend much time wringing your hands over Retirement Savings as Many on Forum Do Today?

No, no great angst over savings. I had enough in SS to pretty much cover basic expenses, smallish pensions were nice to have but not ver important and savings put me well into comfort zone.
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Change of heart on bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4387

Re: Change of heart on bonds

Having 20K to me was not the same as having 200K as far as asset allocation and having ........and so was the idea of losing 50%, then I read a bit about the great depression and realized losing 90% was possible and the time frame that it would take to recover was longer than I could accept. If you ...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 17, 2015 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch
Replies: 26
Views: 5335

Re: Doom and Gloom from Marketwatch

Bloomberg is okay but there is a lot of bs telling us why the market moved up or down, or what will happen in the future and why. Marketwatch also but with all of these sites remember they are selling us something in order to generate money. The writers are rewarded I am sure for the number of click...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying a CD at Vanguard
Replies: 17
Views: 3786

Re: Buying a CD at Vanguard

I would guess that this reflects the decrease in value due to interest rate changes in the market. Vanguard show the value of brokered CDs changing, day to day, as market interest rates changes. I have not noticed this change in value (or maybe remembered) when I purchased CDs from Vanguard but mayb...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: relationship between country growth rates and stock returns
Replies: 5
Views: 795

Re: relationship between country growth rates and stock returns

I have been puzzled about this lack of correlation between GDP and equity returns for some time. In this blog post linked by Larry, forecast growth and and real GDP growth seem to be a bit intertwined. We seem to be shifting between the two. Would it be true that if expectations of growth in GDP are...
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The relationship between rising bond yields and stock prices
Replies: 1
Views: 450

Re: The relationship between rising bond yields and stock prices

Thanks once again for repeating the warning about market forecasts and those doing the forecasting. I think it was reading your posts on this forum and your old marketwatch blog that I finally grasped that market forecasters were just were just selling a product and making money in the process. Of c...
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: tIRA's RMDs causing increasing tax concerns
Replies: 62
Views: 7254

Re: tIRA's RMDs causing increasing tax concerns

If you are moderate income in the 15% or 25% nominal bracket you could find you are paying double or more the marginal tax rate on your RMD dollars compared to your SS dollars. If you are in the nominal 25% bracket, actual RMD marginal tax rates range to as high as 46.25% (+state tax) during the in...
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: "The long and short of finding bond balance."
Replies: 9
Views: 2243

Re: Vanguard: "The long and short of finding bond balance."

If you own Total bond market index fund you already own ST, IT and LT bonds. This fund does not own just IT term bonds. Take a moment and look it up.

jim
by jimkinny
Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: tIRA's RMDs causing increasing tax concerns
Replies: 62
Views: 7254

Re: tIRA's RMDs causing increasing tax concerns

...The big way to reduce total post-RMD taxes is to delay SS and spend down the IRA instead. Is it too late for that? If there are no spouse benefits, is that beneficial? Absent spouse benefits, Social Security is supposed to be approximately fair whether you start at 66 or 70, whereas there's a si...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 13, 2015 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad financial advisor advice on American growth fund? Please help me!
Replies: 7
Views: 1504

Re: Bad financial advisor advice on American growth fund? Please help me!

Educate yourself, buy 2 books. Boglehead Guide to Investing and Boglehead Guide to Retirement. Each book only take several a few hours to read and will cover every thing you need to know. Very simple and straight forward, written by experts. Use the amazon link on this page, upper right, and the for...
by jimkinny
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Substituting Income Annuities For Bond Funds in Retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2646

Re: Substituting Income Annuities For Bond Funds in Retirement

Others have mentioned inflation as a issue to consider with SPIAs. Most of the experts seem to favor delaying purchasing SPIAs until one is 75 or so. This helps a bit with inflation risk, insurance company risk and by 75 one may not need an annuity. I have read that for those who need to meet minimu...
by jimkinny
Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: DCA'ing into Fixed Income Offers Little Benefit
Replies: 9
Views: 1590

Re: Vanguard: DCA'ing into Fixed Income Offers Little Benefit

I agree with Vanguard. Interest rates are what they are. The market sets rates for every thing but extremely short term fed fund rate, held overnight by banks, right? DCA may be emotional easier but that's all, equities or bonds it does not matter, the market is the market. If any one knows more the...
by jimkinny
Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year long hiatus from Bogleheads: How I found the 3-fund portfolio was right for me
Replies: 40
Views: 5039

Re: Year long hiatus from Bogleheads: How I found the 3-fund portfolio was right for me

An excellent post, Bonaire. Paul +1 I followed a similar path but started with several books which dealt with decreasing volatility and increased returns without really understanding much about historical data vs future returns and MPT, the need to own very specialized funds with factor loading and...
by jimkinny
Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reason to delay taking pension??
Replies: 8
Views: 903

Re: Reason to delay taking pension??

i delayed 2 pensions. The increase yearly payout was not even close to yours. One pensions, from a non-profit, is/was not part of the Pension benefit guarantee corporation (not sure if that is the exact name). I started taking it at 2 years post retirement for that reason: the risk of failure is tha...
by jimkinny
Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 246
Views: 26748

Re: Warning Signs

Pretty much a waste of time. There may be something, maybe not, maybe years, maybe days.

Jim
by jimkinny
Sun May 31, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts
Replies: 28
Views: 2394

Re: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts

Home country bias is a political economic risk. Macro decision are made that affect bonds and stocks. If you choose to believe that smart people with good intentions will always make the "correct" or the "better" decisions in one's home country, then I guess you have no need to d...
by jimkinny
Sat May 30, 2015 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts
Replies: 28
Views: 2394

Re: International Bond Fund - Updated Thoughts

What are the reasons that one would want international bonds? Vanguard's paper on the subject was pretty much inconclusive and that stuff is just a bunch of back testing anyway. It seems the risk that gets diversified is political risk for stocks and bonds. Check out the Japanese markets and explain...
by jimkinny
Fri May 22, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market bond funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1548

Re: Emerging market bond funds

Forget the hyperbole. How much did it outperform it's benchmark by? Does that I% or so performance include what you will net, after all fees and taxes? Also consider that to do you any good it has to out perform the correct index, after fees and taxes, in the future. so, if the manager is really on ...
by jimkinny
Fri May 22, 2015 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixing the 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 579

Re: Fixing the 401k

There is no need for most mutual funds. I read several years ago that there were more mutual funds companies in the US than there were companies to invest in. Perhaps the index fund"s growing popularity will put an end to most of them but I doubt it. There is too much money that can be taken fr...
by jimkinny
Wed May 20, 2015 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Equities
Replies: 3
Views: 450

Re: International Equities

I do not know if a stronger dollar equates to a net decrease in a price per share of a company somewhere outside of the US. I am guessing it does. I do know that none of us know enough to attempt to make money off of this. The current situation could persist for years or the dollar may weaken starti...
by jimkinny
Sun May 10, 2015 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 7428

Re: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]

Awesome posts, bobcat.

Thanks for taking the time.

Jim
by jimkinny
Sun May 10, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Credit Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 43
Views: 5578

Bonds and stocks in the 30s

I am not much concerned about any short term volatility. Looking at graphs and seeing a bond fund's performance in 2008/2009 vs equities is not really why I have a large percentage of FI in federal gov backed accounts. I take my lesson from the 1930s. As they say, "mistakes were made" and ...
by jimkinny
Sun May 10, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tenants left and we end up with a flooded basement and no insurance coverage
Replies: 35
Views: 3841

Re: Tenants left and we end up with a flooded basement and no insurance coverage

The money involved seems too low to invest much time or emotion. I had the joy of being a landlord when I was young and learned I hated it. I would never do it again. It is like any other job, there is a learning curve and dealing with tenants is not something I wanted to learn about after my first ...
by jimkinny
Fri May 08, 2015 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 403b investment club help
Replies: 8
Views: 579

Re: 403b investment club help

Having an "investment club" seems to me to be a bit overly complicated but a discussion of the topics found in the two Boglehead Guide books would be a fairly comprehensive approach and then apply the topics to the choices in your 403 plan. Boglehead Guide to Investing and the Guide to Ret...
by jimkinny
Tue May 05, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Time Poster - Planning to Open Vanguard Account - Please Critique/Advise! Thanks!
Replies: 9
Views: 1167

Re: First Time Poster - Planning to Open Vanguard Account - Please Critique/Advise! Thanks!

Take a few minutes to read the top post, "investment Planning" under this Index of "Help with ....." Then go to index and find Theory, news etc... and read the thread about the three fund portfilio, if not already familiar. This may be in the Wiki also. I would not invest money n...
by jimkinny
Mon May 04, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD ladder at Ally - multiple durations or just one
Replies: 20
Views: 2686

Re: CD ladder at Ally - multiple durations or just one

I have never sold a CD via brokerage account. I intend to hold to maturity. Buying the CDs is very easy. I suspect selling is also. I have never seen any indication of what the cost to sell is(other than looking at bid/ask spread) although I have read repeatedly that one pays a premium. I suspect th...
by jimkinny
Mon May 04, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD ladder at Ally - multiple durations or just one
Replies: 20
Views: 2686

Re: CD ladder at Ally - multiple durations or just one

Option 2 is very close to what I did when I first started the change from bond funds to CDs. I have read that the option to bump a rate CD is seldom exercised. I have not used it. If you think about it, a bond fund has multiple maturities for the bonds it holds. The maturity date or duration of an i...
by jimkinny
Fri May 01, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: There's a monster under my bed... [CDs instead of bonds?]
Replies: 30
Views: 3742

Re: There's a monster under my bed...

Any "growth" that you have missed in bonds is likely more than being made for with your higher interest's rates. That idea is very misleading unless you are trying to time things. I am glad I made the switch to CDs over the course of the last 2-4 years. For higher interest rates and conven...
by jimkinny
Fri May 01, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too late for career change/worth it?
Replies: 44
Views: 6142

Re: Too late for career change/worth it?

We have this life to live, no guarantees how long.

Jim
by jimkinny
Fri May 01, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding long-term bond to increase rebalancing bouns?
Replies: 11
Views: 808

Re: Holding long-term bond to increase rebalancing bouns?

my guess is the greatest risk is staying the course. Is this a plan you can stick with for 30-40 years?
by jimkinny
Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guide to Investing's international allocation confusion
Replies: 9
Views: 1129

Re: Guide to Investing's international allocation confusion

I tend to lean towards the camp that thinks a market cap weighting to international is likely the best approach but I do not do that myself. I am near 35% now and will likely let that % percentage drift upwards ( I hope that is the drift direction) without any rebalancing. The historical data tends ...
by jimkinny
Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Financial Plan Under the New [ 0.3% ] Fee
Replies: 33
Views: 5443

Re: Vanguard Financial Plan Under the New .03% Fee

I like the simplicity of Vanguard's proposal.

You have been a member of this forum since 2007 and presumably a reader/member of Morningstar's Diehard forum.

I am curious about what you think?

Jim
by jimkinny
Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RE Social security being taxed--new chart by Scott Burns
Replies: 41
Views: 4950

Re: RE Social security being taxed--new chart by Scott Burns

Thanks fr the link. I read a bit about SS and taxes when trying to determine if I should take some cap gains (retired, no income yet) at zero tax rate or do a TIRA conversion to Roth. The Wiki has some examples of SS taxation also and explains how SS is taxed. I discovered in my reading that the inc...
by jimkinny
Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking about a new desktop PC.
Replies: 55
Views: 4509

Re: Thinking about a new desktop PC.

I have had a Windows. 8.1 for about 6 months. At start up it goes to traditional desktop. Pretty much the same look as prior Windows. I have read security is better. I just use Defender which is replacement for Windows Security essentials and have read good reviews of 8.1 cloud integration. 8.1 is a...
by jimkinny
Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone Manually Manage Quicken?
Replies: 46
Views: 2621

Re: Anyone Manually Manage Quicken?

I used Quicken and prior to that Microsoft's financial software. Maybe 5-7 years worth of playing around. I automated as much as possible by downloading but it seems there were frequent downloads that did not work quite right. Eventually it just became a pain and pretty much useless. I guess I learn...
by jimkinny
Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Bogleheads really follow the 3-4% SWR rule?
Replies: 48
Views: 5116

Re: Do you Bogleheads really follow the 3-4% SWR rule?

No. I am more aligned with the above re Taylor's approach but acknowledge retiring in 1982 might have been just lucky circumstances in that the great returns of equities in the 1990s were ahead as well as the stunning returns of Treasuries for the next 30 years. I think a 3-4% withdrawal rate is a g...
by jimkinny
Sun Apr 19, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Coming to terms with low risk tolerance
Replies: 46
Views: 3710

Re: A real bear market -- What it is like.

That’s why Mr. Bernstein recommends that young investors start with a portfolio that’s roughly 50% stocks (split evenly between foreign and domestic) and 50% U.S. bonds until they experience their first bear market. “Then you see how you respond and you learn what your actual risk tolerance is,” he...
by jimkinny
Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: long term capital gain tax vs. roth conversions
Replies: 41
Views: 2633

Re: long term capital gain tax vs. roth conversions

I retired several years ago and spent a lot of time trying to determine which would be most advantageous: TIRA to Roth conversions (no state tax) or cap gains harvesting with no federal tax and some state tax. last year I decided the Roth conversion was more beneficial in the long term (no state inc...

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