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Re: How much TIPS during accumulation phase?

I like David Swensen's analysis of this question. The market sets a price for TIPS based on the expected level of inflation. If inflation is lower than expected, TIPS are worse than bonds. If inflation is higher than expected, they're better. If the market is efficient, it's a coin flip whether TIPS...
by jhd
Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much TIPS during accumulation phase?
Replies: 74
Views: 4938

Re: We have the money—now what? Real estate?

Buying a home is not the same as investing in real estate. They have fundamentally different purposes. The best real estate investments are typically places where you wouldn't want to live. To see if your single-family home is a good financial investment, run the following calculation: ((monthly ren...
by jhd
Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: We have the money—now what? Real estate?
Replies: 31
Views: 4081

Re: Green Egg BBQ/Smoker

I love mine too. It's the best general-purpose grill you can get, because it does everything well: high heat, low heat, slow cooking, fast recipes, etc. If I were only interested in smoking, I'd consider a pellet smoker (like a Traeger), but I like the fact that I can sear a steak, cook a pizza at 7...
by jhd
Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Green Egg BBQ/Smoker
Replies: 48
Views: 3392

Re: Bicycling in San Francisco

SF resident here too. Harold's advice is spot on - sticking with Fisherman's Wharf and Union Square is like going to NYC and only seeing Times Square. The former is mostly just tourists, and the latter is mostly just shopping. The best parts of San Francisco are the outdoor spaces and the neighborho...
by jhd
Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycling in San Francisco
Replies: 8
Views: 604

Re: Will rebalance into REIT today

I'm simplifying my portfolio to move more towards Taylor's three fund model (not quite there, but closer). To do that, yesterday I sold: Pacific (VPL), Europe (VGK), Emerging Markets (VWO), and iShares Canada (EWC), so that I could buy Total International (VXUS). Turns out all those international f...
by jhd
Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will rebalance into REIT today
Replies: 14
Views: 1364

Re: Updated Novy Marx Paper on Quality

(1) The profitability premium seems more difficult to capture with available options than the market, size or value premiums re: the profitability load on the GMO Quality fund is only 0.23. On other growth funds (at least the ones I have briefly looked at) it is smaller. Robert, have you or anyone ...
by jhd
Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Novy Marx Paper on Quality
Replies: 18
Views: 2380

Re: San Francisco with kids?

San Francisco is a great place for kids if you do it right. I moved there recently with two kids (2 and 6), and they love it. The parks and nature - both in town and within a short drive - are amazing. I think you're already on the right track already, and I would recommend: * Redwoods, either north...
by jhd
Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco with kids?
Replies: 39
Views: 2123

Re: What Type Of Wallet Do You Prefer?

I just ordered a TGT. Haven't tried it yet, though.

Separately, has anyone ever told the Munchkin Man that he writes like a Chuck Pahalniuk novel?
by jhd
Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Type Of Wallet?
Replies: 90
Views: 8475

Re: Relatively New BH: Request for Assistance with Portfoli

Thanks JHD -- on small cap value, is there an index mutual fund that tracks the S&P 600 value index -- I understand that that index is better (smaller, more value-ey) than Russell 2000? Also, is small cap value appropriate for taxable account? Also, I'm not sure I understand your comments on TI...
by jhd
Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively New BH: Request for Assistance with Portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 913

Re: Relatively New BH: Request for Assistance with Portfoli

Hi Rushmore - Here's how I look at asset allocation: what portfolio could I hold through both 1999 and 2008 (or 1929)? Too aggressive and I wouldn't sleep well in a market crash/Great Depression. Too conservative and I would be tempted to buy stocks at their peak during a boom. 70/30 is a fine asset...
by jhd
Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively New BH: Request for Assistance with Portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 913

Re: Goodbye to the free lunch of international diversificati

If we're basing our AA on the rear view mirror of the past 12 years, shouldn't we just dispense with equities entirely and hold 50% bonds and 50% gold? :sharebeer Exactly. You can find 12 year samples to justify any portfolio imaginable. Pick your sample right, and the new Three-Fund Portfolio will...
by jhd
Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goodbye to the free lunch of international diversification
Replies: 62
Views: 5580

Re: Effect of cash assets on Stock/Bonds ratio

Cash is effectively a short-duration fixed income investment. 30-day T-bills (bonds of 30 day maturity) are considered to be cash or cash-like. So it is reasonable to consider cash to be a part of your fixed-income assets. So if you want a 50/50 portfolio of $200,000, and you have $50K in cash, you ...
by jhd
Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of cash assets on Stock/Bonds ratio
Replies: 6
Views: 704

Re: How would you deal with a serious offer for pre-IPO shar

A few thoughts. 1. Have you checked out SecondMarket? Before you do anything, see if you're really getting a good offer. Maybe 80% over the previous funding round is under-market. If you're talking about making a 7-figure transaction, it pays to do quite a bit of diligence and look for a good offer....
by jhd
Fri Feb 01, 2013 1:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How would you deal with a serious offer for pre-IPO shares?
Replies: 14
Views: 1431

Re: Treat your mortgage as a "negative exposure" to bonds?

For me, the key is that a mortgage is directly offset by a place to live. It's not JUST a negative bond in isolation... it's a negative bond that substitutes for the expense of paying rent somewhere. If I rent a house for $1500/month and then decide to buy with a mortgage payment of $1500/month, why...
by jhd
Wed Jan 30, 2013 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treat your mortgage as a "negative exposure" to bonds?
Replies: 188
Views: 8675

Re: How do Bogleheads view "lottery tickets" (illiquid equit

I'm in tech and have made money via stock options, but I also vote zero. Unless you have stock options at a fairly late-stage private company (like Twitter), where you can place a current value on them, you probably have a pretty low chance at a pretty high payout. That shouldn't change your asset a...
by jhd
Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads view "lottery tickets" (illiquid equity)?
Replies: 16
Views: 1282

Re: Quitting Job of 20yrs to start business

I was self-employed for more than a decade, first with a software consulting business that paid salaries for a half-dozen folks, then with a couple of startups - one of which went died, and one of which made a lot of money. I did this without taking excessive personal risk: no debt, no dipping into ...
by jhd
Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting Job of 20yrs to start business
Replies: 31
Views: 3805

Re: Stereo Receiver Suggestion

Emotiva is pretty popular amongst the cost-conscious-but-still-discerning crowd. See http://shop.emotiva.com/collections/amplifiers for more. I haven't heard them personally, but lots of folks have written them up online. As a side note, I'm a total skeptic when it comes to lots of audiophile gear, ...
by jhd
Sat Jan 19, 2013 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stereo Receiver Suggestion
Replies: 70
Views: 4825

Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

Am I Doing This Right?

Long: ACAS, BRE
Short: MD, TWTC
by jhd
Wed Jan 02, 2013 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Replies: 151
Views: 14222

Re: Where to buy a house/condo in SF? Suggestions?

I don't know home prices, since my family rents, but $750 is modest for a SF home. Sounds more like a condo budget to me. These are some general pointers - if you want something more specific, let us know what you want in a neighborhood. E.g. why do you want a second home in San Francisco? If you ne...
by jhd
Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to buy a house/condo in SF? Suggestions?
Replies: 9
Views: 1316

Re: San Francisco Area

Check out the Santa Cruz Mountains for that type of "close yet far" environment. From LaHonda down to Corralitos - it's all nice. Agreed. I lived there for a winter, working on a startup. It was beautiful. Redwoods, isolation, rural/mountain feel... but only 15 minutes to Los Gatos and th...
by jhd
Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco Area
Replies: 36
Views: 2812

Re: Large portfolio -- Grateful for your advice

You need to seek professional financial advice. Professional advice to legally lower your tax liability. This is the most important professional advice an investor can get (or possibly tied with a good estate lawyer). I'm pretty sure the OP said he had both already, though. Beyond that, a financial...
by jhd
Fri Dec 07, 2012 1:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large portfolio -- Grateful for your advice
Replies: 33
Views: 2707

Re: Help me grow a huge windfall for charity

I've seen this type of attitude a lot on the board (I'm a lurker) and I'm sort of surprised by it. Is there a certain point of wealth at which Boglehead philosophies no longer hold true and you should get into exotic alternative investments, or something? My world didn't suddenly become a whirlwind...
by jhd
Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me grow a huge windfall for charity
Replies: 58
Views: 3934

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting and Donor-Advised Funds

I've done this a bit, and hope to be more strategic about it in the future. Changes to the tax code should also factor in here: on the one hand, US tax rates will probably be higher in 2013 and beyond, so 2012 might be the wrong year to do this. But on the other hand, there is talk of new limits on ...
by jhd
Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting and Donor-Advised Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1037

Re: jhd

I did not mean it had the expected return of a lottery but the dispersion of expected returns looked like lottery ticket disperion, big fat right tail and the average return way below the mean. That is what VC in general looks like and the earlier the stage the more skewed the returns likely to be ...
by jhd
Sat Mar 26, 2011 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angel Investing
Replies: 10
Views: 1863

I've taken angel and VC investment too. It doesn't have to be a lottery - unlike publicly traded markets, private funding is inefficient. The best angels and VCs have a significant advantage over the median. That said, if you don't think you can be one of the best (or ride the coattails of one of th...
by jhd
Fri Mar 25, 2011 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angel Investing
Replies: 10
Views: 1863

The Roku interface for Netflix is really nice. I have a DVD player (Sony) that also supports Netflix, but it isn't nearly as nice - you can only browse movies in your Netflix queue, whereas with Roku you can browse recommended movies, search, etc. As long as the player supports 720p+ output (which I...
by jhd
Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: simplest Netflix streaming connection
Replies: 25
Views: 2729

Also check out http://propersuit.com. Custom-tailored suits for non-tailored prices.

Disclosure: a friend of mine is the founder. So I'm biased. :)
by jhd
Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: About to buy a suit, any deals right now?
Replies: 25
Views: 3041

Re: Who here has started a business?

Is anyone doing anything cool as a side business out there? Any advice for someone looking to jump back in? When I ask real life folks I know about this about the only thing they can come up with is 'consulting'. For many reasons including the concept of replacing a job with a job I am not interest...
by jhd
Thu Feb 03, 2011 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who here has started a business?
Replies: 23
Views: 3281

Definitely. Is the child less worthy because of the parents' situation?
by jhd
Thu Jan 27, 2011 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: bequests to illegitimate children
Replies: 35
Views: 3827

What I find amazing about the chart is the number of "runs" where one class does well or poorly for a number of years in a row. Seems like it's evidence that letting the winners run and not rebalancing too much is the correct approach. Whats known as momentum. This basically visualizes so...
by jhd
Sat Jan 22, 2011 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4512

One more thing to consider: Aerons are fairly easy to find on the used/refurbished market. I've purchased 4-5 of them over the years for work, and I've never paid more than $450 for one. The lowest I found was $300. Check Craigslist.

+1 (or 5) for the Aeron. It really is a great chair.
by jhd
Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Office Chair [Forget Price - I Need Comfort/Support]
Replies: 36
Views: 7438

How? So far I'm not aware of any of the social networking sites being able to figure out a viable monetization model. That was true a while ago, but isn't true anymore. Facebook is rumored to have made about $1B-$2B in 2010. Advertising is a viable business model at huge scale. Just look at Google....
by jhd
Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do index funds really reflect current reality?
Replies: 38
Views: 3998

Equity Style - I have no idea if your method will beat a diversified buy-and-hold portfolio over the next 30 years. A momentum premium makes sense to me, for behavioral reasons; but I don't know if your system effectively captures that premium. But: thanks for being a contrary voice here, and puttin...
by jhd
Mon Jan 03, 2011 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity style rotation
Replies: 550
Views: 168636

One disagreement with jhd -- with a CS degree and an MBA and 3 years experience I unknowingly took a job away from a self-taught programmer cum Yale philosophy major who'd had the job for 7 years but had not expanded beyond one language and one algorithm. I took the job not knowing someone else alr...
by jhd
Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Back to Grad School?
Replies: 23
Views: 3425

Re: Back to Grad School?

Many of the jobs I have looked at thus far in Finance are looking for people with some computer programming skills. I am considering enrolling in a university in Chicago to earn a Master of Science in Computer Science. I'd also develop some targeted skills that meet exactly what they're looking for...
by jhd
Mon Dec 29, 2008 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Back to Grad School?
Replies: 23
Views: 3425

I'm a software developer, and I entered the workforce in 2001, during an economic downturn. Like you, I didn't have a CS degree (Philosophy FTW!), and couldn't find a job at a "traditional" company. So I started freelancing. For about 2-3 years, I made very little; but now that I've figure...
by jhd
Mon Dec 29, 2008 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Back to Grad School?
Replies: 23
Views: 3425

TIPS are probably better than I-Bonds as an investment right now. But I'm going to hold onto my I-Bonds and consider them part of my emergency cash reserves. 12 months after purchase, they make a nice cash-like savings vehicle.
by jhd
Wed Nov 19, 2008 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Redeeming I-bond for TIPS
Replies: 9
Views: 1660

Re: And the risk definitions are...?

I simply wonder if the free lunch component of SV's return can be counted/planned on given that it is now so widely known? That's all. That's my one and only point. Aren't you kind of defeating your own argument? As long as people say "The SV premium is a thing of the past" when it doesn'...
by jhd
Sat Nov 01, 2008 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S/V tilting during this crisis (6/30/2009 update)
Replies: 120
Views: 22675

I think he has a much bigger issue with people using leverage to invest in stocks. If you have a well diversified portfolio, through index funds or other means and you go bankrupt it most likely means that the world is in pretty bad shape. If you are leveraged 4 to 1, though, because your models to...
by jhd
Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Angry
Replies: 130
Views: 29994

I think Taleb is spot on in some of his thoughts on market psychology, risk, Wall Street, etc. And I find his investment ideas intriguing. At the same time, when I read his writings, I get the sense that anyone who invests in stocks will eventually go bankrupt. Maybe today, maybe in 20 years, but so...
by jhd
Wed Oct 22, 2008 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Angry
Replies: 130
Views: 29994

Talk of $200 or $1000 oil may be overheated in the short term. But over the next 40 years, oil prices and shortages could cause significant economic disruption. Or they could be low and stable - we don't know.

Assuming one wanted to, how does one invest for the $1000 oil scenario?
by jhd
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman predicting $200/ barrel oil
Replies: 41
Views: 8953

I'm a little embarrassed for old Taleb. After several years and several hundred pages skewering people who take credit for predicting market movements, he can't resist telling us how he predicted this particular drop. Also a little sad to hear him talk about how he "put his neck and money on t...
by jhd
Tue Oct 14, 2008 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: Taleb says current crisis is a "White Swan&a
Replies: 42
Views: 6345

Re: Out of room in tax-deferred accounts. What do do now?

As I read it, you hold your stocks in taxable and your bonds + REIT in tax advantaged, and now you're out of tax advantaged room. If that's not right - if you're holding stocks in tax-advantaged - then I'd move those to taxable to make room. What do I do in this situation? Are there any "bondli...
by jhd
Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Out of room in tax-deferred accounts. What do do now?
Replies: 14
Views: 2575

This was an interesting presentation. Of course, some in the startup community are asking what is new here. Sequoia's advice is to control spending, focus on quality, and get to positive cash flow. So what was their old advice - waste money, neglect quality, and don't worry about revenue? The questi...
by jhd
Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequoia Capital Presentation on Financial Crisis
Replies: 3
Views: 1597

1) Are student loans something I should pay off with the low interest loan, or should I wait until I get a steady paycheck (8 months) and pay them off then? I think a 6-month emergency fund should take priority over paying off a low interest student loan. I'd also fund the Roth before paying down t...
by jhd
Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor! 15k to invest!
Replies: 6
Views: 1636

29 days ago, I sold two ETFs to harvest small losses and replaced them with similar (not identical) ETFs. Tomorrow (or Monday - can I buy back on day 30, or day 31?), I'll be harvesting large losses and switching back. No one likes to lose 40%, but TLHing is a nice side-effect of volatility. On the ...
by jhd
Thu Oct 09, 2008 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NOW is a perfect time to take tax-losses.
Replies: 51
Views: 10659

WSJ on Bogleheads

I got a PM yesterday from Shelafi Anand, a reporter with the Wall Street Journal, asking for thoughts from a "person on the street" (er, web) about declines in international markets. Here is what came of it. http://www.wsj.com/article/SB122333746961709675.html I'm quoted under "Not Pa...
by jhd
Tue Oct 07, 2008 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ on Bogleheads
Replies: 5
Views: 1853

The core idea here is interesting. My question: how do you put it into practice, via an IPS, and not rely on feeling and judgment? I can see weighting international holdings based on valuations; i.e. if European stocks are valued lower than Japanese stocks, holding a bit more Europe and a bit less J...
by jhd
Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should valuations affect target asset allocation?
Replies: 64
Views: 7290

Welcome, Yeti! -- Instead of holding a small-cap fund, why not go with a small-cap value fund? That way, you capture both Small and Value premiums (if they exist over your time horizon) in a single fund. And historically, Small Growth stocks have done pretty badly. -- Reinvesting dividends is fine, ...
by jhd
Thu Oct 02, 2008 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Investing - Portfolio help please
Replies: 9
Views: 2150

Re: Please help me clean up my portfolio/asset allocation!

Here is feedback on a few of your questions. 1. I want to divest all of the individual equities and sector mutual funds in my taxable account. Is this a good idea? What is the best way to do this? Should I just sell them all at once and purchase the appropriate index funds per my asset allocation? I...
by jhd
Wed Oct 01, 2008 11:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me clean up my portfolio/asset allocation!
Replies: 3
Views: 1270
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