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Re: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his foreca

I stopped reading him some years ago. The problem with Hussman is he continually cooked up new reasons not to buy stocks. For example March 9, 2009 (I think that was the very day of the low :?: ), he wrote: As for the stock market as a whole, I continue to view the market as undervalued, but not dee...
by jeffyscott
Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his forecasts
Replies: 19
Views: 1874

Re: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?

A major issue for those in *some* state and local pension schemes is how this is all going to be paid for. Politics and accounting follies have combined to produce situations which local ratepayers and taxpayers will *not* bear going into the future-- half of their taxes, say, going on pension cost...
by jeffyscott
Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?
Replies: 36
Views: 1704

Re: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?

Yes but it's possible to get a feel of norms. Which are about 15% of pensionable salary (gross, employer + employee contribution) for a 1.67% pa accrual retire after 35 years scheme. Add in full CPI indexing or a higher accrual rate and you are talking 20, 25%. It's only an approximation, but it's ...
by jeffyscott
Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?
Replies: 36
Views: 1704

Re: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?

A DB pension with a more normal multiplier is something like at least 10-15% of payroll. If this pension really has a 3% multiplier, then the cost would be much higher as the payout would be 50-100% higher than is typical. The old Federal CSRS, with about a 2% multiplier costs 26% of payroll. FERS w...
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 18, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?
Replies: 36
Views: 1704

Re: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?

Well, mine currently costs 14% of salary. The benefit is only about 1/2 of yours, 1.6% per year of service. *That* is much more normal. So after 35 years, you retire at 56% of final salary? Public sector? Is the 14% yours, the employer's or a mix? Employees pay 1/2 the 14%. The cost had been lower ...
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?
Replies: 36
Views: 1704

Re: POLL: Uninsured/Underinsured Motorists Coverage?

What difference would it have been without UM/UIM coverage? My question, was supposed to be: Even if the responsible party had no insurance, what difference would UM/UIM make to those who have medical and collision coverage. Your items 1 and 2 are about which insurance company pays. While I agree t...
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Uninsured/Underinsured Motorists Coverage?
Replies: 17
Views: 1001

Re: POLL: Uninsured/Underinsured Motorists Coverage?

My wife was involved with a serious accident in 2009 at which an inattentive driver crashed into her at high speed, near a stop light, from the rear resulting in her car being destroyed and the 3 cars in front of my wife damaged. The total damages totaled over $500K. The at-fault driver was well co...
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Uninsured/Underinsured Motorists Coverage?
Replies: 17
Views: 1001

Re: Response to Shiller's "lofty" CAPE - where should it be?

If you are going to project an expected value for an investment in the S&P over the next ten years, simply inverting the CAPE and multiplying by 10 is a very good place to start. So 10 X 1/25 = 0.40, and I should expect the value to be 40% of my investment for a 60% loss? I assume he meant to s...
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Response to Shiller's "lofty" CAPE - where should it be?
Replies: 3
Views: 813

Re: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?

Well, mine currently costs 14% of salary. The benefit is only about 1/2 of yours, 1.6% per year of service.
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Defined Benefit Plan Costs?
Replies: 36
Views: 1704

Re: Europe travel: best card for ATM cash

LeeMKE wrote:(I don't carry a debit card with access to our bank accounts.)


Why not get one, so that you are not paying credit card interest on cash advances?

You may still have ATM fees, though, depending on your bank and the ATM.
by jeffyscott
Sat Aug 16, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Europe travel: best card for ATM cash
Replies: 33
Views: 1886

Re: Market valuation analysis

At NO time, NEVER, did the value of VTSAX drop below where it was in 1997, so buying stocks when PE10 was near 30 (let alone holding stocks that you bought years before even cheaper) doesn't seem like a terrible decision... You never got a chance to buy back in cheaper. You assume that the alternat...
by jeffyscott
Sat Aug 16, 2014 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuation analysis
Replies: 36
Views: 1661

Re: Market valuation analysis

This all tells me that within a reasonable range of assumptions, stocks are priced at least as well as we would expect and may be slightly cheap, mostly due to low interest rates and strong recent earnings. Or maybe stock prices are high but bond prices are higher. I'm a little conflicted on using ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 15, 2014 9:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuation analysis
Replies: 36
Views: 1661

Re: Debit VS Credit Cards Security

Watty wrote:There is really no upside to having a debit card...


Unless you shop at Aldi or Woodman's.
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debit VS Credit Cards Security
Replies: 19
Views: 1472

Re: Debit VS Credit Cards Security

Since in the US there are no merchants accepting Chip&Pin (at least not that I am aware of), your card having an Embedded Chip while you're shopping is of no use, it's there as a forward compatibility thing e.g. if you want to travel to Europe and prefer to use safer Chip&Pin while abroad, ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debit VS Credit Cards Security
Replies: 19
Views: 1472

Re: Job Change for Someone Using an ACA Subsidy

Will she also have to pay back some of the subsidy when she does her taxes? The subsidy had been based on projected income of $17,000 but her income for the year will now be more like $25,000. I have a son is similar circumstances, had made maybe $18,000 last year and just started a $25,000 job. How...
by jeffyscott
Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Change for Someone Using an ACA Subsidy
Replies: 3
Views: 444

Re: Question re- EE Bonds

To get current values - http://www.treasurydirect.gov/BC/SBCPrice To get rates for various issue dates - http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ebonds/res_e_bonds_eeratesandterms.htm Be aware that some EE Bonds had nice guaranteed minimum rates after the initial maturity (like 4%), so...
by jeffyscott
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question re- EE Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 1621

Re: Replacing my Central Heat and A/C system................

I haven't seen any data on reliability, intuitively a more complex system is less reliable. Also higher efficiency tends to mean thinner heat exchanger and I would think thinner would (all else being equal) not last as long. According to this furnaces can actually get as high as 98.5% efficiency: h...
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing my Central Heat and A/C system..................
Replies: 16
Views: 1696

Re: What counts as "income" for PPACA subsidies?

Found this site: http://www.healthinsurance.org/quotes/eligible_for_subsidy.php seems that depending on the state you retire in, or live in currently ? your tax credit vs income dollar amount changes. you can see the sliding scale in this link. Plug in your state, amount of income, and the plan cos...
by jeffyscott
Mon Aug 04, 2014 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What counts as "income" for PPACA subsidies?
Replies: 143
Views: 23711

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

Everything I said above is all very well and good, but is that sort of middle-of-the-road approach practicable or even actionable? In my humble opinion, it absolutely is. I myself decided to get out of small cap stocks (VTMSX) completely in my passive core portfolio about two weeks ago due to what ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 4619

Re: Replacing my Central Heat and A/C system................

Depending on the quality of the HVAC system, it may last another 10 years (I've got a 25 year old HVAC system in a rental that is still going strong). Good to know, ours is 17/18 years old. We have had a few repairs in the past and willing to pay for more of that to keep them going, rather than pay...
by jeffyscott
Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing my Central Heat and A/C system..................
Replies: 16
Views: 1696

Re: Inexpensive paper check replacement?

FWIW, another that will give you free paper checks is Schwab.
by jeffyscott
Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inexpensive paper check replacement?
Replies: 19
Views: 1547

Re: planning to travel a lot soon...how to build up points?

slickdeals.net: Chase United MileagePlus Explorer Credit Card: Spend $2000 in First 3-Months and Earn 50,000 Bonus Miles With the 5000 mile bonus for adding authorized user, 55,000 total. Then chase sapphire will give, I believe 40,000 transferable to United for a total of 95,000. Then spouse can d...
by jeffyscott
Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: planning to travel a lot soon...how to build up points?
Replies: 14
Views: 1195

Re: Should I close this credit card with Annual fee

I think one should do what makes financial sense, live your life, and let the credit score fall where it may. I am quite annoyed at the credit bureaus' triumph in taking the lemon of required disclosure into lemonade, and turning it into lemonade. They seem to have convinced a generation that their...
by jeffyscott
Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I close this credit card with Annual fee
Replies: 20
Views: 1969

Re: Time to buy a tv or wait 2 years?

Nice graph, but I don't think it's all that accurate. I sit about 25ft from my 106" projection screen and I can very easily tell the difference between 480p and 1080p. The chart indicates that you should be able to tell the difference between 480 and 1080. Specifically it says there would be a...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to buy a tv or wait 2 years?
Replies: 66
Views: 5868

Re: Time to buy a tv or wait 2 years?

Well, OLED is $4300, not $7K, today at Best Buy or amazon. Get rid of the curved screen and drop another $1500 and I may buy.
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 05, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to buy a tv or wait 2 years?
Replies: 66
Views: 5868

Re: Time to buy a tv or wait 2 years?

OLED (organic led) screens are by far the best displays currently available - blackest black, fastest response, best color gamut but a 55" TV is currently $4999. I expect the prices will come out of the stratosphere quite quickly. I hope you are right, my fear is OLED is not going to catch on ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to buy a tv or wait 2 years?
Replies: 66
Views: 5868

Re: Continue subscribing to local newspaper?

Dropped ours last fall. I am able to read the few things I want online, despite the 10 article per month limit, partly this is due to using several devices and different browsers but I can also delete the cookies or prevent them from being stored one way or another, if need be. We were paying just f...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 04, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Continue subscribing to local newspaper?
Replies: 86
Views: 6363

Re: I am thinking of buying Ooma or Magicjack need help deci

I've been curious about these for a while. Do I need one of these if I have a smartphone? I'm currently using only the cellphone for my telephone calls and do not have a landline phone. I'm not sure what I would gain with one of these services? If you don't already have a land line, you don't need ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I am thinking of buying Ooma or Magicjack need help deciding
Replies: 52
Views: 3183

Re: Paperless Statements (bank checking acct)

I would love to switch everything to electronic. Here's my dilemma. What happens if I can't take care of things? How does my husband figure out what bills to pay if they are sending the bill via email and I'm unable to open and read my email? I'm consolidating accounts so at least he would be able ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paperless Statements (bank checking acct)
Replies: 64
Views: 3118

Re: Medicare question

Appears you would probably take part A but, perhaps, not B...

http://www.aarp.org/health/medicare-ins ... on-94.html
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medicare question
Replies: 3
Views: 477

Re: How much to retire

I calculated what I think our expenses will be 27 years from now and we will only need about 52% (our income today is 134K annually so 134k x .52 = $70k) What is your recommendation? Do you use the 70-85% or your own calculations. It makes no sense, if one is actually saving for retirement. If I as...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to retire
Replies: 21
Views: 2958

Re: Paperless Statements (bank checking acct)

I can't believe people don't balance their checking accounts. That's like not looking at credit card statements. Not really, balancing was really just checking the math...mostly checking the math in your personal, hand written, ledger. You can look at the statement and verify that everything is cor...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paperless Statements (bank checking acct)
Replies: 64
Views: 3118

Re: Paperless Statements (bank checking acct)

I also reconcile my accounts manually, and I prefer to have the financial institutions shoulder the cost of the ink and paper for printing the statements. (I know the customers eventually pay all their expenses, but even if I did go paperless they wouldn't give me a better deal.) I am with cheese_b...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paperless Statements (bank checking acct)
Replies: 64
Views: 3118

Re: Best Credit Card Promos 2014

prudent wrote: Capital One is known for low limits.


Hmm, Pretty sure they were the first one to give me a high limit and I think that still is the single card with the highest limit that I have.
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Credit Card Promos 2014
Replies: 34
Views: 12415

Re: Convince me to visit Italy

I live in southern Italy...(military)...So, I think I have a fair vote...I would say pass on it....the EURO exchange rate is too high, everything is very hard to find, driving is a pain...go to other parts of Europe. Why would a visitor need to drive? We are planning to go either spring 2015 or 201...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince me to visit Italy
Replies: 77
Views: 5484

Re: An interesting note about stable value funds and costs.

Expenses for stable value have gone up. Mine is up to 0.38%, I think it was 0.2 or 0.25% a couple years ago. Our bond index fund is at 0.05%.
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 14, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An interesting note about stable value funds and costs.
Replies: 3
Views: 580

Re: Peppy V6 With Good Fuel Economy

1992 Accord 4cyl = 125hp 2006 Accord 4cvl = 166hp Almost 1/3 more HP. But there is also about a 14% increase in weight and difference in torque at 4000 RPM is only about 17%. That said, step on the gas pedal and either should certainly go fast enough. I have absolutely no problem getting enough pow...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 14, 2014 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Peppy V6 With Good Fuel Economy
Replies: 35
Views: 3026

Re: Uninsured / Underinsured Motorist Coverage

Some people firmly believe their suffering, their child's suffering, the loss of a child or disfigurement is worth nothing. Yes, that is the reason given by those opposed, the one and only reason for not thinking it to be of much value. Similarly, the only valid reason to have it is that you like t...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 04, 2014 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uninsured / Underinsured Motorist Coverage
Replies: 40
Views: 1900

Re: Uninsured / Underinsured Motorist Coverage

I feel it is of little value to us, but it is required by our state. Ours is just $25 per year per car for UM/UIM @ $250/500K. I think state requires 100/300, I don't know why we have more than that...probably the cost difference was next to nothing.
by jeffyscott
Sat May 31, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uninsured / Underinsured Motorist Coverage
Replies: 40
Views: 1900

Re: Where store spare gas grill LP tank?

Personally, I don't really care what the tank looks like and I just leave them outside next to garage. I just looked at a pretty old one we are currently using, it's dirty but don't I see any rust, except for the ring at the bottom that sits on the ground and a little where the valve assembly is att...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 31, 2014 8:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where store spare gas grill LP tank?
Replies: 15
Views: 1094

Re: Low cost retirement options

May not need to be near a big city. For example, I know Wisconsin has Marshfield clinic in the middle of nowhere. I don't know much about it, but it seems to have a good reputation and I assume the area would be cheap.
by jeffyscott
Sun May 25, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low cost retirement options
Replies: 21
Views: 2636

Re: Social Security at 62? Let’s Run the Numbers

U R confusing compound vs cumulative return. SS adjustments over four years (FRA of 66 to age 70) is 8% x 4 years, or an increase of 32% over the base amount at FRA. You can't compare taking it at age 67 (8% increase) and multiply that return vs. the subsequent year and so on or as you are doing, s...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security at 62? Let’s Run the Numbers
Replies: 101
Views: 7521

Re: Musing about a 4K UHD TV

Have not seen either 4K or OLED TVs yet, but my feeling is the OLED technology would be an upgrade that is of some value, while 4K is just marketing useless specs that have no practical advantage (since I have no plans to ever sit 2 feet away from a 60 inch screen, or whatever). Since we dropped cab...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Musing about a 4K UHD TV
Replies: 10
Views: 818

Re: Eyeglasses Help

Trivex is the lightest (but not thinnest) material available. Trivex also has the best optics of any material, other than glass or CR-39 (standard plastic). Costco does not carry Trivex, so I do not get eyeglasses there. If you want thin lenses with poor optics, you can get a 1.67 index material at ...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Eyeglasses Help
Replies: 12
Views: 1949

Re: Tree removal service and insurance

Company that we have had trim our trees several times, twice had branches damage the vinyl siding. They had someone take care of the repairs at no cost to me, my insurance was never involved. One time we had a tree that was broken in a storm. Had a guy take down the remainder and also do some limite...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 9:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tree removal service and insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 859

Re: How to have a life if you can't save 6months expenses?

I think it depends on why. If you are earning $20K, then I think it's quite reasonable to not do any of those things, if you can at least save enough to get the company match you are doing well IMO. If you are making $100K and "can't" do more than save up to the company 401K match, which I...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to have a life if you can't save 6months expenses?
Replies: 20
Views: 2228

Re: The Progressive Glide Path

I believe I did something like this. We started with 75% stocks and target allocation declined to 50% as invested assets increased, rather than based on age. Hit 50/50 before the 2008-09 unpleasantness and maintained that allocation (within 5%, anyway...stocks did fall to as low as about 45%) throug...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Progressive Glide Path
Replies: 9
Views: 1152

Re: stable value stable?

There are different varieties of stable value: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_value_fund#Types_of_stable_value_funds Synthetic GIC has less risk than a regular GIC where the assets are in the general fund of a single insurance company and I guess the separate account (under a single insurance ...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 8:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stable value stable?
Replies: 6
Views: 729

Re: Social Security at 62? Let’s Run the Numbers

Where else can you buy an inflation-indexed annuity that returns 8% ?? It is not an 8% return. An annuity that pays me $1080 per month starting at age 69 is not 8% more valuable than an annuity that pays me $1000 starting at age 68. Even if the 68 year old would collect for 20 years, the 19 years o...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 18, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security at 62? Let’s Run the Numbers
Replies: 101
Views: 7521

Re: Does AirTran enforce luggage size?

I think it was on AirTran that my wife had to sit with some large woman's flesh invading her space for 3 or 4 hours. So we actually prefer the SW seating arrangements. It allows the two of us to strategically select a row where one non-fat person is already sitting 8-) . We've always signed in early...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 17, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does AirTran enforce luggage size?
Replies: 30
Views: 3520
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