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And the Nav of GNMA has dropped from around 11.10 to 10.77 as of late.I have actually lost money since Oct reinvesting dividends.

Thanks for the input.The reason is a long story that does not need to be told

Are their any opinions of the combination of 40% GNMA,40%short term corp 10% limited duration muni and 10% ibonds vs total bond for the next 5 years or so for a fixed income allocation?

Great story and I do not believe it either but..... it made me feel a little better about some of the stupid things I have done in the past because compared to that guy I was a genius

Anyone out there have an opinion on zvox sound system for your tv?My wife is not hearing all that great and looking for something really good on hearing the dialogue.Thanks.

John...Yes of course I own bonds.I own a lot more bonds than stocks.The fact that they return less than stocks is irrelevant to why I own them.I own them to balance the risk of owning stocks.John the point of this discussion was not should you buy index or managed funds which seems to be what you ha...

Givewell....The op originally posted because of some arrogant,dogmatic posters who were coming down on someone for investing in Wellesley.Is that interesting ,no.Is being self righteous and arrogant interesting? The vast majority of posters here are helpful,smart and happy to share their knowledge o...

PK thanks for distracting them....I snuck out the back :happy The one point you seem to not understand about my argument is that I am NOT saying past returns are the driving decision why you invest in index funds.I fully understand that.I understand that completely.What I do not understand is how on...

Pkcrafter.....Maybe this will help you understand the way I look at this.In your own words you said at the beginning you were told to read and learn and not base your decisions on past results.In my mind when you read and learn you are of course looking at market history and how managed funds and in...

You guys are killing me.Why can't extremely smart people admit that their decision is influenced to some extent by past performance?I am not saying you are investing with the expectation to achieve the same past return,but that your decision HAS to be influenced at some level because you are aware o...

OK....The last poster,a very smart man says choosing to invest in index funds is NOT a strategy.Really?Then what is it?You and I have a different definition of that word.Yes I am carrying past performance to an extreme because I was simply trying to make the point that we all use past performance to...

To lump all managed funds together into one because the combination of all managed funds owns the total market and then say since the sum of all managed funds together will not beat the index with lower fees is totally nuts if that is what is being said.An individual fund or small group of managed f...

I read the paper and it said that a managed fund or group of managed funds can outperform the index towards the end of the paper.So what is the point?It basically says that indexes will usually outperform but it is not a certainty.

Rmelvy....I do not know what you mean by the active community in aggregate but it cannot mean a group of managed funds because that is ridiculous.

Rmelvey....The only way that can be true if is if it is based on past results because the future is unknown.I can tell you I have 10 managed funds that will outperform the market by 15 % over the next 25 years.You ,I or Swedroe,Bogle,Buffet have no way of knowing if I am going to be right or wrong.Y...

I know it is a big deal to ever own something based on past performance but isn't the entire Boglehead philosophy based on past performance?Own the total market because it has outperformed 80 whatever pct of managed funds with its low fees and no stock picking.My point is if 75 % of managed funds at...

I can offer a superior technical analysis supported by 14 major studies as to why people own Wellesley.Because it has been a great balanced fund for many years through thick and thin.I believe I am paraphrasing from Yale or was it MIT.....It is really pretty simple if you think about it and step bac...

AHHHHHH.What do all those guys know.

With reduction in Nav it is possible the total bond market could lose money over a fairly long period if the wind blows just right.Ibonds will be a safer investment.Has there ever been a time in history where TBM looked less attractive?

It is interesting reading all of the comments lamenting that they missed the gain of the last couple months.Conversely,a couple months from now the market could be down 15 % and those who waited will be happy.I do not believe you have to be a robot and never think for yourself.To fund a roth or a sm...

The "discussion" regarding the stock market as gambling is interesting.For those who believe it is not gambling I would say it is a form of gambling.You can invest 1M in the total market tomorrow and the truth is you have no way of knowing what it will be worth in 3 years or 3 days.You inv...

avalpert....Once you have won the game you can stop playing.If the other team has no timeouts at the end of a football game you can hike the ball and take a knee to secure the win or you can run a needless play and risk a turnover that can cost you the game.That is my point and idiotic was a poor ch...

Google the Richelsons.They are mnui bond experts who will build a ladder for you.They charge 1% of the initial amount and that is it.They have written many books and are excellent.They are located back east but do it online for you.The Scarsdale Group is the name of their firm I believe....husband-w...

It is really quite simple....If you have a specific amount of money you need to have a safe retirement and the stock market has a big gain of course you should cash out if it meets your requirement.How can anyone reasonably say it is foolish because you are timing the market.You have achieved your i...

It was asked how can Wellesley possibly keep up it's stellar performance of 40 plus years with only 65 stocks?......I am sure to get lamblasted for the following statement but......How many stocks does one need to hold to really be diversified?I will say that I or any other person on this thread can...

All technical analysis and academic theories aside.....The simple truth is our human nature loves to be rewarded or given something and most dividend stock believers crave getting that 262.23 at the end of the month from stock xyz.At some level it is like a gift and people want it.It feels good to u...

Now I am confused.If I buy now will I earn 1.76 for the next 6 months?

The current ibond rate until april 30 is 1.76.Does that include inflation adjustments or is that the base rate?Buy now or wait until May when rate changes?

OK Larry and all ..thank you for putting up with my severe mental block pertaining to this issue.There are a lot of people out there pushing dividends and starting new newsletters all about dividends.Get your monthly paycheck,etc etc.Buy only companies that raise their divid because it protects you ...

Please humor me one last time.So even in a very short market downturn,a month or two with a full return back to the same level,the fact that shares were sold in the non div stock vs no shares sold in the div payer does not matter.There is never any situation when selling shares at a loss vs not sell...

For a retired person more concerned with not losing money vs total return,is there any scenario where div paying consumer defensive and cons staples stocks would not hold their value more in a really bad say 5 year bear market?You can quote all the studies in the world but companies that make things...

In 2008 cons staples index lost 17 pct....How much did the market lose?I am not saying they will outperform the market over time,but they will lose less in a prolonged bear market.Of course I guess that does not matter.

What about a retired person holding more Consumer Staple type stocks that pay dividends that I believe are proven to hold up better in dwn markets?Most of this discussion seems based on all stocks dropping the same pct. I believe most of the div believers hold these stocks for the income and less vo...

Larry and all...Thanks for setting me straight once and for all.I have been brainwashed by various stock gurus over the years and it is difficult to get them out of your head.The irony of investing is such a complex endeavor is actually so simple if you can block out all of the noise.

Dbr...you say it is a fact that the 2 portfolios would have the same total return.Let me put it another way. John has 10000 shares of stock ABC at 100 dollars per share total 1 million with a 4% div.Bob has 10000 shares of stock K at 100 dollars total 1 million paying no dividend.To get the 40 k per...

An example.....John has 1 million in high quality div paying stocks like ATT and JNJ,KO,MCD,etc.Say the avg yield is 3.5%.He is living off the 35k in dividends yearly along with his SS.Bob has 1 million in non divid paying stocks and sells 35k a year to live on with his SS.The date is May 1,2013 and...

I thought that was the case,just wanted to make sure as I plot my master plan. I guess even I cannot screw up Ibonds

When finally retired and starting to cash in Ibonds bought over a 20 year period,I would assume it would make sense to cash in the bonds with the lowest fixed rate first.Iknow you must own them 5 years to avoid penalties.I assume you can sell the newer one with 0 fixed rate and let the older one wit...

Thank you all again.I have cancelled my appointment and told him in my email to check out the boglehead forum for the reasons why.I will take my possible short term lumps with the bond market and ride it all out.I guess I have become so risk adverse at 61 that I am worrying over nothing.I didn't use...

Thanks Mel,I am aware of that .I just happen to like Wellesley. On anothe rnote I went to the annuity guys website....He promotes it as a safe money investment similar to a cd or treasuries,not an equity replacement.He at least is very clear on the fact that it will underperform the market by a lot ...

Prior to going to this presentation I had decided to go 70%bonds/30%stocks using a combination of Wellesley,target retirement funds and the 115k in ibonds that we own.I am going to do it and end all of this madness but I see a stock market that has gone nowhere but up for 4 years and a bond market t...

I am just very frustrated by the dishonesty associated with it all.I have been hammered by all sides about this product by people with much more financial knowledge than I so I have to conclude this is a bad investment.The problem is I do not see anything that looks like a good investment in terms o...

I am wondering why Vanguard sells variable annuities if they are such a horrible and dishonest investment?

Thank you for all of your comments and suggestions.I of course do not have the answers to all of your questions.If I choose to meet with this guy I will ask him the questions many of you proposed.He did clearly say that at the end of the term you are paid your money plus interest and that the intere...

He recommends no longer than a 10 year and you hold it for the full term.At that time you get all of your money back plus whatever you earned.He also had 6 year products.He also pointed out that not all companies have good policies and that some are terrible.He specializes in this one product,is an ...

He explained the surrender charges and said never ever cash in an annuity early.He also said never buy a variable annuity.He was very straightforward and it is hard to believe he was an evil,dishonest salesman as Mel's article in Forbes would suggest.I guess every person in the country who sells the...

I have to admit I was feeling pretty good about buying a 6,8 or 10 year fixed indexed annuity after a presentation I attended.The speaker use to be a VP at Morg Stanley and got out of the stock market advising game.He now specializes in one product....the fixed indexed annuity.With the bond market l...

Ditto....The only advantage to a business for accepting cash is to save on cc transaction fees or tax evasion.Simple as that.

Thank you

Sidney...So are you saying if I bought 30k and sold at 20k for a 10k loss,I wait until I am 70 something and taking distributions and at that time I can somehow withdraw 10 k taxfree?There is no tax deal for my 2013 taxes like it would be if held in a taxable account?