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Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

If you believe it why take the risk for so little.
by hoops777
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 23259

Re: Muni bond fund vs taxable

Thanks OGD as always.That makes it a very easy decision for once :happy
by hoops777
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bond fund vs taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 474

Re: Muni bond fund vs taxable

Thanks for the helpful replies!
by hoops777
Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bond fund vs taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 474

Muni bond fund vs taxable

I have a question regarding which bond fund to hold in taxable.Between Calif Intermediate Term Muni and Vanguard Intermediate Bond,not Total Bond,what tax bracket do you need to be in to make the muni a better choice?Down the road a little we may have about 200,000 in one or the other when retired.O...
by hoops777
Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bond fund vs taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 474

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

If you have enough money it is very easy to live on a fixed income portfolio for 40 years.Why not?The simple point of winning the game is really about having a lot of money.If someone thinks they have won and need and expect 6,7 pct or more from stocks,they are hoping and are very serious players wh...
by hoops777
Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14722

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

The only problem is that a retiree can go with a heavy stock allocation and get crushed as well....actually more likely then with bonds unless 99 pct of the experts are wrong.
by hoops777
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14722

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

So now bonds are as risky as stocks?That goes against 99 pct of the posts on this forum since it started in 2007.Maybe its true.Maybe everyone on this forum has the experience of a very long bull market in bonds and has only lived through the big drops in stocks as investors.I need to get a bigger m...
by hoops777
Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14722

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

Never said LTC was a doomsday scenario.Have a policy myself.
by hoops777
Sun Apr 19, 2015 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14722

Re: Safety Deposit Box is Necessary (+1 plug:)

A safe deposit box is a better alternative to any clever hiding place you think a thief will not discover,but it is less convenient.You also have to be careful,as you get older,when you donate your canned goods to a food drive that you do not make someone very ,very happy. :D
by hoops777
Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safety Deposit Box is Necessary (+1 plug:)
Replies: 33
Views: 4445

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

This topic can become a little bit depressing thinking about all of the negative things to worry about.If you eliminate the doomsday scenarios,it is easy to know if you have won the game with a little common sense.As I stated earlier,you just cannot declare victory if you need stocks.There just is a...
by hoops777
Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14722

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

Anyone who says they have won the game that needs a positive return from stocks going forward has not won anything.They are still playing and may feel great with a 15 point lead in the fourth quarter,but sometimes unexpected things happen at the end of the game.Just do not proclaim victory with too ...
by hoops777
Sat Apr 18, 2015 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14722

Re: John Bogle vs Jim Grant Debate

I cannot play in the NBA either.....but that does not mean I cannot shoot better than a lot of NBA players.... :D Correction,use to be able to if left unguarded.Once defense is involved we have entered a realm much more difficult than picking a stock,not even close :D I know I could still score on W...
by hoops777
Fri Apr 17, 2015 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle vs Jim Grant Debate
Replies: 14
Views: 2105

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

I believe there are people out there who THINK they have won the game because they THINK stocks will give give them a nice 8 to 10 pct return going forward.You have not won anything until you have all your worst case scenarios,within reason,covered,and the younger you are when you retire the more at...
by hoops777
Fri Apr 17, 2015 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14722

Re: Future income on 100,000 bond fund

OGD....what makes you think I might gloss over any more theory,I am offended :D I appreciate your thoughtful explanation as always.Kevin I appreciate yours as well and I actually understand it. I believe my best path going forward is to have a good combination of Intermediate bond funds,cd's if I ca...
by hoops777
Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future income on 100,000 bond fund
Replies: 16
Views: 2582

Re: Future income on 100,000 bond fund

Yes,thank you Rick for the article,but the author was talking about individual bonds and not funds.I consider a highest quality individual bond to be equivlant to a cd if held to maturity.I am coming to the conclusion that it is a waste of time to worry about a high quality intermediate bond fund if...
by hoops777
Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future income on 100,000 bond fund
Replies: 16
Views: 2582

Re: Future income on 100,000 bond fund

Kevin...so are you saying the cds in combo with a high quality corp bond fund?
by hoops777
Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future income on 100,000 bond fund
Replies: 16
Views: 2582

Re: Future income on 100,000 bond fund

I am trying to determine the wisest choice between cd's and Total Bond or Intermediate Bond and how much to allocate to each.The cd's are a certainty and the bond funds are not.The cd's would also be brokered for simplicity.Right now I am estimating about in pct 37.5 CD 37.5 Funds 25 I Bonds......wi...
by hoops777
Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future income on 100,000 bond fund
Replies: 16
Views: 2582

Re: Future income on 100,000 bond fund

I guess what I posted is pretty accurate
by hoops777
Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future income on 100,000 bond fund
Replies: 16
Views: 2582

Future income on 100,000 bond fund

Ok.I should know this but I just want to be crystal clear for my financial plan going forward towards retirement. I will keep it as simple as possible for my sake,not yours :D An example with rounded numbers. I invest 100,000 in the inter term bond fund on Jan 1,2016 and lets say it is yielding exac...
by hoops777
Sun Apr 12, 2015 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future income on 100,000 bond fund
Replies: 16
Views: 2582

Re: Road trip Pittsburgh to Milwaukee

Thanks for the ideas.We are getting in late so the basic plan is one full day in Pittsburgh but will be there 2 nights in the hotel,one night in Cleveland,one night in Detroit,2 nights Chicago and one night Milwaukee and back home.I also have to watch the NBA playoffs if the Warriors are still alive...
by hoops777
Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road trip Pittsburgh to Milwaukee
Replies: 7
Views: 630

Road trip Pittsburgh to Milwaukee

We are flying in to Pittsburgh and driving to Milwaukee for a week end of about May 29 to June 6.Planning on driving to Cleveland,Ann Arbor,maybe Detroit,to Chicago and up to Milwaukee.Going to stop at Notre Dame and U of Michigan for sure.We like interesting small towns and great little places to g...
by hoops777
Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road trip Pittsburgh to Milwaukee
Replies: 7
Views: 630

Re: Best US city to spend Xmas

Thanks.I appreciate it.
by hoops777
Sat Apr 11, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best US city to spend Xmas
Replies: 40
Views: 2335

Re: Best US city to spend Xmas

Stemikger....what you described is why I want to go to NY.
by hoops777
Sat Apr 11, 2015 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best US city to spend Xmas
Replies: 40
Views: 2335

Re: Best US city to spend Xmas

Great replies.Thank you.I will choose a place and then talk to my wife and go wherever she wants :D
by hoops777
Fri Apr 10, 2015 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best US city to spend Xmas
Replies: 40
Views: 2335

Re: Rental flooring decision

Yea and what about all that great laminate made in China with formaldahyde....great price though.One other laminate issue is that you have to change the baseboards as well if you have those cheap ones that you often see in apartments because of the coverage.There are also noise issues if they are se...
by hoops777
Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rental flooring decision
Replies: 34
Views: 2801

Re: Best US city to spend Xmas

Thanks for the responses and sorry for not being more informative.We have been to Maui several times so that is out.Lived my entire life in the SF Bay Area so severe weather to me is anything below 50 degrees :D.I can enjoy NY if it stays mid thirties and above but not if there is a snowstorm or air...
by hoops777
Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best US city to spend Xmas
Replies: 40
Views: 2335

Re: Rental flooring decision

If you want the same flooring everywhere go with vinyl planks or LVT.Laminate does not hold up to any water problems.The installation is not as easy you think unless your standards are low concerning the final look.The LVT requires more floor prep than laminate.If you hire a professional to install ...
by hoops777
Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rental flooring decision
Replies: 34
Views: 2801

Best US city to spend Xmas

Best city to spend Christmas with no weather worries and no Ca. or Fla. please.Would like to go to NY but the weather could be severe?
by hoops777
Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best US city to spend Xmas
Replies: 40
Views: 2335

Re: My Strategy For A Market Crash

I like your plan and I congrats on getting there.I also liked your response to the poster who tried to paint you as a novice investor because you are just taking the dividends. :D
by hoops777
Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Strategy For A Market Crash
Replies: 54
Views: 9217

Re: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mort

Never pay off your mortgage is such bad advice that it is borderline incompetent.Besides the basic math,depending upon the individual circumstances,I know I get a big smile on my face :D every time I get a refinance ad in the mail or hear an ad on the radio because you cannot lower a mortgage paymen...
by hoops777
Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage
Replies: 209
Views: 16427

Re: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash

I understand why a person buying huge amounts would by Treasuries,but what reason is there for a regular person to buy Treasuries over 10 year cds that are paying about a point higher?
by hoops777
Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash
Replies: 69
Views: 7615

Re: Should We Refi or Just Leave It Be?

Refinace to 30 year and you can add to the payments when you choose to but have a lower payment if you need it.As much as you plan and think you can predict the future,it is unknowable.You could lose a job,have an accident....rates could rise unexpectedly.You can make a 30 year into a 15 but you can...
by hoops777
Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should We Refi or Just Leave It Be?
Replies: 5
Views: 827

Re: Email problem with junk mail

Thank you .I will give it a try.
by hoops777
Fri Apr 03, 2015 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email problem with junk mail
Replies: 2
Views: 392

Email problem with junk mail

I have an ipad that I use with Yahoo mail.I have several accounts that email me that I made VIP and I get an alert sound.One of these accounts sometimes goes into my regular and still goes into junk about half the time.Any solutions would be greatly appreciated.
by hoops777
Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email problem with junk mail
Replies: 2
Views: 392

SEP Mistake

I made a mistake and combined my wifes small SEP contribution with my own and over contributed $329 to mine...what to do?Thanks
by hoops777
Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SEP Mistake
Replies: 1
Views: 174

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

Three things are certain,not two......Death,taxes and my Golden State Warriors finishing the regular season with the best record in the NBA.Winning the championship goes more into 30 year forecast territory :happy :D :)
by hoops777
Tue Mar 31, 2015 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 13892

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

It is truly amazing some of the research and analysis you guys do,but the more I read it the more evident it becomes that a 30 year forecast has so many assumptions and unknowns that it is simply an intellectual exercise with no real value except to stimulate conversation and make you think about yo...
by hoops777
Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 13892

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

555 because you offer a rebuttal dies not mean that you are right.There is no value in a 30 year forecast unless it is actionable.If the report is the reason you decide to change your AA or to work 5 extra years,well ,you know how that translates. The real reason for the report is for the author to ...
by hoops777
Sun Mar 29, 2015 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 13892

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

Let me put it another way.What exactly is the point of a 30 year forecast unless we use it for something,which would be to change your asset allocation?If you believe the forecast,you would change your AA to get in line with it.A million times on this forum I have seen stay the course....be fully in...
by hoops777
Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 13892

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

It is interesting that bogleheads would even care about someone predicting 30 year trends.Come on now,who the heck has any idea what is going to happen and how it will effect the market.It is all a bunch of mumbo jumbo.As much as people want the comfort of thinking they have an idea,they do not.Line...
by hoops777
Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 13892

Re: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?

With all due respect to Mr.Buffet,he is not in a situation where he has just enough money to live on.I wonder if he is talking to the 70 year old retiree with just enough to get by that a prolonged bear market would decimate if 100 pct in stocks. In regards to counting your ss as bonds,all that real...
by hoops777
Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?
Replies: 72
Views: 5319

Re: Vanguard HealthCare Fund

Maybe it really is as simple as the increasing aging population is guaranteed to need more healthcare.That is a fact,not an opinion or a hopeful projection.Now should that translate into a market beating return going forward?
by hoops777
Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard HealthCare Fund
Replies: 68
Views: 6202

Re: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?

I am impressed that so many are so absoluetly certain of the return of bonds going forward.Nice to know nothing could happen to change that :D
by hoops777
Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?
Replies: 72
Views: 5319

Re: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?

Pretty simple.High risk high reward....but in this case high reward is in no way guaranteed or reasonably expected.
by hoops777
Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?
Replies: 72
Views: 5319

Re: Definition of financial independence?

I guess we all have our own personal relationship with money.
by hoops777
Mon Mar 23, 2015 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Definition of financial independence?
Replies: 52
Views: 4981

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

I told you he joined a cult....one with psychics as well :D
by hoops777
Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4284

Re: Vanguard - The New Bond King - WSJ

We all know what happens when you anoint someone a king........uh oh.....I hear he has ordered a new desk :shock:
by hoops777
Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - The New Bond King - WSJ
Replies: 27
Views: 4372

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

I saw a picture of him on the internet with long hair and a beard and he has joined a cult that is focused on investing in dividend paying stocks and high yield corporate bonds 8-)
by hoops777
Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4284

Re: Definition of financial independence?

You are financially independent when you know you are by whatever factors you use that apply to you.For me I would feel 100 pct independent and worry free if my monthly income from bonds and stocks covered whatever monthly expenses SS did not.This would leave me no need to sell shares but would prov...
by hoops777
Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Definition of financial independence?
Replies: 52
Views: 4981
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