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Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Whoopee I am sorry for my absurd premises and conclusions.I realize the whole thing was a little silly and not based in the cold hard reality of the stock market and what happens in the real world.Just got a little irritated about the rigidity of a few folks and went off on a tangent.I admit it.You ...
by hoops777
Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Again the black swan event was a gross exaggeration to make a point about being so rigid and tied to your plan that you would invest knowing you are going to lose a lot of money,which you would assume you will get back by staying the course. :beer
by hoops777
Thu Apr 10, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Since I am the crazy one here let me have one more shot.... Let's make believe Boglehead Land has a court of law. My point was selling a longterm investment to time the market would be deemed a greater violation than waiting to invest new money in a market that has gone almost straight up for 5 year...
by hoops777
Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Wow.It is very clear to me that belief systems are VERY strong and the stronger you believe the less likely you are to see something even in a slightly different way.There is just no way in the real world that selling a long term investment to time the market is exactly the same as waiting to invest...
by hoops777
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

OGD lets just agree to disagree.The black swan event was an extreme example to make the point about putting money into the market even though you anticipate it is going to take a big negative drop.I would not do that.Most human beings would not do that.It was not meant to be over analyzed. If you ar...
by hoops777
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

The math is the same but the action is not the same.If you cannot see the difference between actually selling stocks to time the market vs choosing to not invest new money at the present time then I am really at a loss for words. I own a small business and sometimes I go to someone's home to do an e...
by hoops777
Wed Apr 09, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

The one thing that bothers me a little is the somewhat arrogant attitude displayed by many here that I will buy determined by my AA and it is the only way,the best way and any other way is just ignorant.That is the way it comes off to those who are not the most extreme doctrinaire Bogleheads.I belie...
by hoops777
Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Freddie,of course there is no advantage unless the market drops below 50,that is the point of waiting.Anyway this is a discussion that can only end one way,so I am dropping it.
by hoops777
Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

OGD I really respect you and your knowledge but It is different to actually sell an investment to time the market vs having uninvested money and waiting to make an initial purchase.I understand your point but it is different.I get it that if you sell we both have 500k,but it is a lot more hardcore t...
by hoops777
Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

I just do not understand the posts from really smart people that say it does not matter.For simplicity sake,say a Sp 500 ETF is $50 share today and I buy 10,000 shares.I now have 500,000 invested.If I "quote"time the market and wait until June and the market goes down and the ETF is $40 an...
by hoops777
Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

The difference would be that bogleheadism aside,the market is due for a correction and that s a historical fact,so maybe going all in right now with a large amount is not called for.Just an opinion that is not popular here.
by hoops777
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Is there a difference between investing a small amount every month and going all in today with a large amount?How many would be a little more reluctant to invest 500k today at these valuations if that was all you had for your stock allocation?
by hoops777
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11667

Re: Spouse taking SS and tax consequences

Thank you all again.I will take your suggestions and figure it all out....or try :happy
by hoops777
Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse taking SS and tax consequences
Replies: 11
Views: 773

Re: Dual pane windows

Thanks for the replies.We actually have honeycomb window coverings and blackout drapes because it would get so light in the room in the early a.m.I should have mentioned that in the beginning :happy I do not know if that compensates for the single pane but one would think it would.
by hoops777
Mon Apr 07, 2014 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dual pane windows
Replies: 11
Views: 1046

Re: Spouse taking SS and tax consequences

We live in Calif.I appreciate the help and will try the worksheets.We were both going to wait until 70 but I think we might take hers at 65 though we do not need it.Mine at 70 is projected to be 3225 but I believe that is in today's dollars....hers 1950 or so.If we wait and with the increases we mig...
by hoops777
Mon Apr 07, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse taking SS and tax consequences
Replies: 11
Views: 773

Dual pane windows

We have two sliding doors in our MBR single pane.We live in the Bay Area so a mild climate.Is it worth it to install new dual pane sliders in terms of keeping the room cooler or warmer at night or would the difference be minimal?The current sliders are 25 years old.We also have a 12 ft ceiling if th...
by hoops777
Sun Apr 06, 2014 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dual pane windows
Replies: 11
Views: 1046

Spouse taking SS and tax consequences

We have been filing joint returns and my wife has been earning about 3000 yearly working once or twice a month while I earn 80 to 100K.My wife will be 65 in Jan and I think she is going to file for SS of about 1400 month.I am self employed and hope to work until 70.My question is should we not file ...
by hoops777
Sun Apr 06, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse taking SS and tax consequences
Replies: 11
Views: 773

Re: The case against small cap value

I am certain this has been asked and answered before but how does a stock weighting of 1/3 each small,mid and large value do vs the total market?
by hoops777
Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5113

Re: Which Muni Bond Fund in Taxable account ??

Any preference between Ca.intermediate vs long term.The duration is fairly close and the yield is much better.Does the yield justify 2 years longer duration?I have about 40k to park there for about 8 years,reinvest dividends and then use it for a little income at 70.
by hoops777
Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Muni Bond Fund in Taxable account ??
Replies: 14
Views: 1349

Re: Decently written article on retirement

Wow.How can anyone in this great country with all of the economic expansion and opportunities not have enough money saved for retirement?Well let me explain to the poster that could not wrap his head around it.....A large portion of the population dies not earn the type of money that most of the peo...
by hoops777
Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decently written article on retirement
Replies: 22
Views: 3113

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

I would like to invest in a guaranteed good health plan :D It kind of puts it all in perspective.
by hoops777
Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12838

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

The middle class has a financial struggle to varying degrees during their working life so why should one expect anything different during retirement?
by hoops777
Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12838

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

Excuse me but the only parents who enjoyed an affluent retirement were the ones who enjoyed an affluent life before retiring.Nobody knows what the stock mkt is going to do the 10,20 or 30 years after you retire.We all want reassurance that our decisions will work out,but the reality is unless you ha...
by hoops777
Tue Mar 25, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12838

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

The younger you are when you retire the more risk you have of running out of money.I am not shedding a tear for those who choose to retire in their early to mid fifties with a 7 figure portfolio and then are fretting about do they have enough.I do feel for those who are laid off and forced to retire...
by hoops777
Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12838

Re: Faulty Logic [Asset Allocation nearing Retirement]

Just make sure your just enough covers the worst case scenarios,with plenty of room or you do not have enough.
by hoops777
Sun Mar 23, 2014 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faulty Logic [Asset Allocation nearing Retirement]
Replies: 24
Views: 1844

Re: Poll: When did you retire? Would you do it all over agai

Is anyone else surprised at the average age of the respondents?Much younger than I would have guessed.I am self employed and my job is not too stressful and about 25 hrs a week.I recently decided to go until I turn 70.....now I am a little disappointed looking at 8 more years.If only I had invested ...
by hoops777
Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: When did you retire? Would you do it all over again ?
Replies: 103
Views: 10683

Re: How many Bogleheads are Wishy Washy?

I am here to be cured of my wishy washiness but I need more medication :D
by hoops777
Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads are Wishy Washy?
Replies: 44
Views: 4103

Re: Vanguard bond funds and leverage

Thanks for the replies.So the typical Vanguard funds that everyone here owns should react to rising interest rates as they have in the past....rates rise ,nav drops ,and you pretty much get what you paid for in relation to the duration of the fund if you hold on and reinvest dividends.
by hoops777
Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard bond funds and leverage
Replies: 6
Views: 542

Vanguard bond funds and leverage

I was reading an article by a "bond expert" ,Steve McDonald,who says bond funds will be a blood bath when interest rates rise this time because they use leverage to buy new shares and because of the current financial situation.He says this time when the rates go up and the nav drops it is ...
by hoops777
Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard bond funds and leverage
Replies: 6
Views: 542

Re: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffe

Sometimes a person can just be good at picking stocks.If he is really good he will be right most of the time,but there is always going to be something unforeseen that happens,which will bring the batting avg down a bit.Buffet was very good,very disciplined and very rich with a lot of resources.Surpr...
by hoops777
Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffett
Replies: 48
Views: 5380

Re: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffe

A person has the money,time and the ability to research companies in depth. Choice A....companies that are highest in quality with a needed product or service,cheap,safe and sound financially. Choice B....companies that are lacking one or more of these qualities. Mmmmmmm.....which type should I inve...
by hoops777
Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: modern financial theory has finally caught up with Buffett
Replies: 48
Views: 5380

Re: Are Long-Term Bonds be better than Short-Term?

You are most welcome and I will just leave it at that?Good luck with your search for knowledge :wink:
by hoops777
Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Long-Term Bonds better than Short-Term?
Replies: 49
Views: 2999

Re: The Motley Fool HSA Article

An HSA should be used for what it was meant for,medical expenses.It is not meant to be a back door IRA and if enough people want to game the system and cause the gov to put an end to HSA accounts then who is to blame for that?An HSA is the best investment deal out there so lets not screw it up by be...
by hoops777
Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Motley Fool HSA Article
Replies: 16
Views: 1750

Re: Are Long-Term Bonds be better than Short-Term?

I am not buying the thinkers story,but this has been a good thread :wink:
by hoops777
Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Long-Term Bonds better than Short-Term?
Replies: 49
Views: 2999

Re: Hit a milestone today. Thanks Bogleheads!

When I was 27 I had a negative net worth but I was happier :D
by hoops777
Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hit a milestone today. Thanks Bogleheads!
Replies: 31
Views: 4686

Re: Vanguard Total International Stock vs Dodge & Cox Int'l

It is not accurate to make a statement that ALL managed funds eventually underperform index funds.Of course a managed fund will not outperform an index every single year,but there are managed funds that have outperformed index funds over the life of the fund.ALL is a very strong world.That's all. :)
by hoops777
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total International Stock vs Dodge & Cox Int'l
Replies: 23
Views: 2345

Re: Best way to safely increase expected returns

The things you can control....spending,saving,working and your ER are most important.You,nor are anyone else,has any real knowledge of how the stock market will perform the next 20 years or if and when another 2008 will occur.The next time the recovery might not be so wonderful.
by hoops777
Sun Mar 02, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to safely increase expected returns
Replies: 28
Views: 2139

Re: Vanguard Total International Stock vs Dodge & Cox Int'l

Sorry abuss but that is an inaccurate blanket statement.Dodge and Cox has a very specific way of picking investments by committee and they eat their own cooking as well.Thirteen years of vastly superior returns by probably the most respected firm in the managed fund industry says something beyond lu...
by hoops777
Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total International Stock vs Dodge & Cox Int'l
Replies: 23
Views: 2345

Re: PenFed 5 yr CD @ 1.75%

I changed the way I look at.If 5 years from now a 5 yr cd is paying 5 % then I have one paying 3.4 but I got a better return at he front end.Just exhausted thinking and worrying about bond funds and rising interest rates.I am content with what I put in and it is in an IRA in my vanguard acct....K.I....
by hoops777
Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PenFed 5 yr CD @ 1.75%
Replies: 5
Views: 1178

Re: PenFed 5 yr CD @ 1.75%

Just bought a new issue brokered 10 year CD from Vanguard at 3.4......at first I thought this is crazy but feel pretty good now....peace of mind.
by hoops777
Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PenFed 5 yr CD @ 1.75%
Replies: 5
Views: 1178

Re: Thoughts on new I shares conservative ETF

I guess I should know this by now but what difference does it make if it is an ETF or mutual fund?
by hoops777
Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on new I shares conservative ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 675

Re: Thoughts on new I shares conservative ETF

I thought this was new....I now see old posts about it from 3-5 years ago.Wow,the AA really is quite different than it was then.I guess they change it all of the time depending on the market outlook.Oh well.
by hoops777
Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on new I shares conservative ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 675

Thoughts on new I shares conservative ETF

Symbol AOK..... AGGREGATE BOND 32.36 Short treasury 24.08 S&P 500. 15.34 MSCI EAFE 11.45 High yield corp 7.75 TIPS 4.38 SP MID CAP 2.44 SP SMALL CAP 1.23 MSCI EMERGING MKT 0.90 All I SHARES ETF's Expense .29 One analyst called it the best conservative investment ever.Thoughts?Just looked on Morn...
by hoops777
Tue Feb 25, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on new I shares conservative ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 675

Re: Making a case for bonds (All About Asset Allocation)

This topic has been covered many times.Search around on this site and you will find all of your answers.
by hoops777
Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making a case for bonds (All About Asset Allocation)
Replies: 44
Views: 2581

Re: Why Own Bonds at All?

Why own bonds at all?Well let's hope we never find out why you should have owned bonds.It is very obvious without being a pessimist to ascertain the possibility of a black swan event at anytime.The problem with all of your 100% stock allocation theory is it carries the most risk to devastating someo...
by hoops777
Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Own Bonds at All?
Replies: 492
Views: 28316

Re: HSA Tax question

Thanks.I do not remember but it had to do with the HSA not being done properly,I cannot find the letter.I think it was for taking too much of a deduction.
by hoops777
Fri Feb 21, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA Tax question
Replies: 5
Views: 523

HSA Tax question

I have a HSA acct and my wife and I have family plan insurance policy.It is my understanding that we can contribute the max amount which I believe is 6550 for 2014 and since we are both over 55 an additional 1000 each.What I have been doing is splitting the total and putting half in each account.My ...
by hoops777
Fri Feb 21, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA Tax question
Replies: 5
Views: 523

Re: Flipping houses

It is like everything else in life.You have people who really know what they are doing,have a well organized team of low cost but competent workers and know the market and neighborhoods.A lot of these houses are bought at auction at the courthouse in California and often they buy them without seeing...
by hoops777
Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flipping houses
Replies: 12
Views: 1392

Re: Why Own Bonds at All?

People whether they admit it or not have gotten a little cocky about stocks because we recovered from 2008.It could have VERY EASILY TURNED OUT MUCH DIFFERENT and this thread would not even exist :annoyed .
by hoops777
Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Own Bonds at All?
Replies: 492
Views: 28316

Re: Why Own Bonds at All?

All of these endless arguments are somewhat interesting.....the academic research,the studies,the EXPERT opinions,blah,blah,blah.Let me take a down to earth simple approach and settle this for all of you. 1.you will never agree 2.NOBODY knows what is going to happen tomorrow,the next 5,10,50 years 3...
by hoops777
Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Own Bonds at All?
Replies: 492
Views: 28316
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