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Re: "Costly Self-delusions": Happiness, Market Timing

Thanks for the post and link. An excellent article.
by hollowcave2
Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Costly Self-delusions": Happiness, Market Timing
Replies: 30
Views: 2210

Re: Bond ETFs a certain loss?

Since #1 and #2 have been commented upon, I'll comment on #3. Assertion #3 sounds like it is based on fear, speculative assumptions, and what you've heard in the media. You've offered no reasonable data to back up your assertion #3. Sure, I can think of many scenarios where #3 can happen but I can t...
by hollowcave2
Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond ETFs a certain loss?
Replies: 16
Views: 1167

Re: Put Option as Insurance

I agree with grabiner's advice above.

I would count your blessings and sell the stock, realizing the gains. Congratulations.
by hollowcave2
Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Put Option as Insurance
Replies: 11
Views: 949

Re: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins

Adding some physical gold can help provide ballast for a portfolio and may be of some use in emergencies. I agree with the limit that LadyGeek suggested of no more than 5% of your portfolio. Realize, however, that gold does not provide any interest, needs to be in a secure place, and as an investmen...
by hollowcave2
Sun May 11, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Gold/Silver Coins
Replies: 37
Views: 2621

Re: Term life vs Whole life

I agree that term life is cheaper and more efficient than whole life. I also recognize that whole life is not universally bad and it's possible to find a decent whole life policy. But life insurance should be used for just that, insurance. I don't think whole life makes a very good investment vehicl...
by hollowcave2
Tue May 06, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Term life vs Whole life
Replies: 28
Views: 2591

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Dollar-Cost Averaging

SAMBB sums my views quite cogently in this post: I'm not sure this thread is helpful to someone who asks about DCA vs lump sum. Sure there are differences in opinion, but it seems like this thread may not be interpreted properly by a new investor. I would say, do what you feel is comfortable, as the...
by hollowcave2
Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Dollar-Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 7180

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

2124

Here's to another good year, and especially, to good health.

Steve
by hollowcave2
Wed Jan 01, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 536
Views: 13833

Re: Investment types that can lead to a loss greater than 10

Futures
Short selling a stock, unhedged
Selling a naked call option

I believe in all of the above, potential loss is theoretically unlimited.
by hollowcave2
Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment types that can lead to a loss greater than 100%
Replies: 16
Views: 1661

Re: Investing lump sums

I must say that the Bogleheads Wiki article referenced in the link above is the most objective and sane comparison between Lump Sum and Dollar Cost Averaging. It's nice to see such an article discussing the pros and cons in such an intelligent matter. I hope this answers those questions about which ...
by hollowcave2
Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing lump sums
Replies: 14
Views: 1212

Re: Elderly parents heavily invested with Edward Jones- help

In reality, those fees, which she and I had already gone over, were approaching 20,000 a year. Insane! She said thanks and submitted the vanguard forms I'm not defending Edward Jones here, but I also want to be fair. How is $20K of fees being generated annually? Anyway, to add onto the discussion a...
by hollowcave2
Fri Nov 29, 2013 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Elderly parents heavily invested with Edward Jones- help
Replies: 28
Views: 6438

Re: Bogleheads.org should accept Bitcoin donations

I guess I could use some education about these bitcoins. Seems to me that their only value is that people think they are worth something. Now, I guess we can say the same thing about U.S. money. But I think there is a big difference between the full faith and credit of the United States versus a pop...
by hollowcave2
Thu Nov 28, 2013 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads.org should accept Bitcoin donations
Replies: 25
Views: 1900

Re: VGPMX vanguard precious metals

I also have held the fund as part of a total portfolio. I agree it has been a very bumpy ride. I haven't heard anything about changing managers and I don't think that would matter much. The entire sector is in a slump this year. It's very cyclical volatile. As for me, I'm keeping it as part of my to...
by hollowcave2
Tue Nov 26, 2013 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX vanguard precious metals
Replies: 6
Views: 1278

Re: How much Total Bond fund to produce $10k of steady incom

Current yield of the BND ETF is about 2.5 %. So you would need $400,000 invested to receive 10,000 annually at that rate. With regards to your second question, yes, you basically have it right, although I am sure there are other complex factors at work. But the effect would not be instant. You would...
by hollowcave2
Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much Total Bond fund to produce $10k of steady income
Replies: 38
Views: 3851

Re: Nov 2013 I Bond Rate - 1.38% (0.20% Fixed)

Actually, this is a simple problem to solve. If you want the newer bonds, wait until the one year mark and then sell the I bonds you purchased earlier this year and roll them into the 0.2% fixed rate I bonds. It would cost 3 months interest, but if you want to do that, you can. But that introduces ...
by hollowcave2
Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nov 2013 I Bond Rate - 1.38% (0.20% Fixed)
Replies: 94
Views: 7436

Re: Nov 2013 I Bond Rate - 1.38% (0.20% Fixed)

This is actually bad news . I am overwhelmed with cognitive biases: 1. I've bought my $10k worth of I Bonds early in the year, and now I feel the loss. 2. What should I do next year? Should I buy them early at 0.2% or wait? Victoria I know how you feel-- one year I got a 1% drop in my interest rate...
by hollowcave2
Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nov 2013 I Bond Rate - 1.38% (0.20% Fixed)
Replies: 94
Views: 7436

Re: Nov 2013 I Bond Rate - 1.38% (0.20% Fixed)

Finally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! An increase in the fixed rate is a surprise and I welcome it! It's about time. I think I'll step up my automatic purchases again. Man, the EE bonds are at 0.10% Wow. That's tough. The only reason to hold EE bonds is to wait for them to double at 20 years. Almost like holdin...
by hollowcave2
Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nov 2013 I Bond Rate - 1.38% (0.20% Fixed)
Replies: 94
Views: 7436

Re: AAPL

Ranger, Excellent explanation of APPL option volatility and the role of a major event affecting uncertainty about price. Yes, this is happening with APPL. I think short term options are a pure gamble. There's more justification in buying LEAPS, despite the greater capital needed. I hold AAPL as a pa...
by hollowcave2
Wed Oct 30, 2013 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL
Replies: 166
Views: 36390

Re: why not cash instead of bonds?

Over the long run, bonds will outperform cash by a significant amount. Looking a your 1-yr return for a bond fund is too short a time frame when duration of the fund is longer than that. For short term money, like less than 3 years, keep it in cash. For more than 3 years, I'd keep it in bonds with i...
by hollowcave2
Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: why not cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 33
Views: 4783

Re: Options Level 1 & Level 2 - revoke?

boglerocks wrote:Does Level 1 or Level 2 allow me to expose my self to "unlimited loss"? That's what I'm worried about.


No. Not at those levels of trading.

I don't see any reason to revoke the permissions, though. You don't need to trade any options at all. You're in control.
by hollowcave2
Sat Oct 19, 2013 12:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Options Level 1 & Level 2 - revoke?
Replies: 32
Views: 2651

Re: sellers remorse [Individual stocks to index funds]

Imdeng gave you some great advice above. Just continue with your plan. Your money is at less risk because you are more diversified. Yes, sometimes you could have made more in something else, but Google could have dropped just as easily as it went up. Even if you still had Google, you would still be ...
by hollowcave2
Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: sellers remorse [Individual stocks to index funds]
Replies: 22
Views: 2493

Re: Does VBS offer same account service as Vanguard?

Yes.

VBS sends me a separate statement with all of the distributions and cost basis provided on it. You have a choice as to what method of cost basis you want to use.

I haven't had any problem with them.
by hollowcave2
Wed Oct 16, 2013 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does VBS offer same account service as Vanguard?
Replies: 2
Views: 249

Re: Timing of Roth funding

I am waiting a few days to see what plays out in Washington. I don't think a few days makes any difference, but I would like to have some clarity in what's going to happen with the political issues. I think a lot of people are just treading water this week. Today's action shows just how difficult i...
by hollowcave2
Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing of Roth funding
Replies: 8
Views: 860

Re: Timing of Roth funding

I am waiting a few days to see what plays out in Washington. I don't think a few days makes any difference, but I would like to have some clarity in what's going to happen with the political issues. I think a lot of people are just treading water this week.
by hollowcave2
Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing of Roth funding
Replies: 8
Views: 860

Re: What are interest rates going to do on Thursday

Everything won't suddenly happen on Thursday. All that happens Thursday is the government's ability to borrow money ends. We still have some money in reserve. But as obligations come due in the latter half of the month, there will be less and less money to pay those with. I don't think all hell will...
by hollowcave2
Tue Oct 15, 2013 6:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are interest rates going to do on Thursday
Replies: 19
Views: 1858

Re: I Bonds, CPI, and the Government Shutdown

Excellent question. There are consequences to a government shutdown. I would think that determining the terms of savings bonds is an essential service, so it will happen, but we may not know any information until Nov. 1. I hope the political crisis is solved before the end of October. Until then, we...
by hollowcave2
Tue Oct 15, 2013 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds, CPI, and the Government Shutdown
Replies: 8
Views: 1641

Re: Anyone Else Scared?

All this political uncertainty is a little scary, but where else am I going to go? Even if I put my money in Treasuries, it wouldn't be totally safe. So I choose to just ride this out and have confidence in the United States over the long haul. Short term we might get hit a little, but I still have ...
by hollowcave2
Tue Oct 15, 2013 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government Shutdown/Default [effect on investments]
Replies: 454
Views: 28117

Re: We've only just arrived at the next Bear Market

By my perspective, the last secular bear market just ended!! Between Jan 2000 and Sept 2013. Now it seems we want to inflict ourselves with a new wound. I think there's some interesting times ahead and the political disarray in Washington creates a lot of uncertainty in the near term. But where else...
by hollowcave2
Tue Oct 15, 2013 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We've only just arrived at the next Bear Market
Replies: 20
Views: 3166

Re: New Investor, Wait for the Debt Limit?

I would advocate putting some in now and some later. Dollar cost averaging is one way of doing this. I don't think we'll have a clear answer about the debt limit next week. They could pass a funding bill that only funds the government for a few months and then we're in it again. Based in the stock m...
by hollowcave2
Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Investor, Wait for the Debt Limit?
Replies: 7
Views: 926

Re: take COBRA or buy on exchanges?

I know you have 60 days to decide if you want COBRA or not, but since there's more than 60 days left in the year, I'd just take COBRA when you can. My experience has been that COBRA can be expensive. So compare your COBRA premium to the ACA premiums and you can choose. If you make less than 46000/yr...
by hollowcave2
Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: take COBRA or buy on exchanges?
Replies: 16
Views: 1705

Re: When To Buy I Bonds and EE Bonds - Now or Wait?

The only way to get the September bonds now is to go to a bank officer directly. I thought you couldn't buy from banks anymore. I think you're right. Which means you cannot buy a September 2013 issue anymore. So that gives more time to think, which may not be helpful :) At this point, you can buy a...
by hollowcave2
Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Buy I Bonds and EE Bonds - Now or Wait?
Replies: 11
Views: 2536

Re: When To Buy I Bonds and EE Bonds - Now or Wait?

It may be a moot point for September. If you request a purchase through Treasury Direct on Monday, you will get the bond on Oct 1 with an October issue date. The only way to get the September bonds now is to go to a bank officer directly. But I don't think that's worth the trouble. At this point, I'...
by hollowcave2
Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Buy I Bonds and EE Bonds - Now or Wait?
Replies: 11
Views: 2536

Re: Vanguard settings to automatically reallocate company st

Is this company stock held inside a brokerage account? If so, you can automatically reinvest dividends, but I know of no way for Vanguard to buy or sell shares of individual stock automatically for you.
by hollowcave2
Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard settings to automatically reallocate company stock?
Replies: 1
Views: 270

Re: Another "what to do/see" - Salt Lake City

I used to live in SLC in the 1980's. Just a few suggestions: 1) Take a guided tour of Temple Square. It's the heart of the city with lots of history. Sure, you'll get a pitch from the Mormons, but that's the background of the city. 2) Visit the Capitol. 3) Shop at Trolley Square. 4) Take a ride up t...
by hollowcave2
Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another "what to do/see" - Salt Lake City
Replies: 28
Views: 2034

Re: GE Capital Bank Online Savings

Is the account insured through FDIC? If so, fine. If not, ING (Capital One) offer the same rates with FDIC insurance.
by hollowcave2
Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GE Capital Bank Online Savings
Replies: 12
Views: 2590

Re: Bad idea to buy i-bond now?

The rate on the I-bond includes a variable rate based on inflation, so you'll get the variable rates as they reset every 6 months. I don't see the downside of buying an I-bond now as opposed to an uncertain rate later. I'd just buy it. If you are using it for an emergency fund, just remember that th...
by hollowcave2
Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad idea to buy i-bond now?
Replies: 39
Views: 4089

Re: Which Options To Buy For Earnings Release

Well, of course, you are taking a gamble 1) on options and 2) on individual stocks. You could win big or lose everything invested, which may or may not be better than just buying the stock. Now, I'm sure you know that on this board, there is a bias against this type of thing. So I'm not sure what yo...
by hollowcave2
Tue Jul 23, 2013 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Options To Buy For Earnings Release
Replies: 14
Views: 845

Re: What did Bogleheads do when the stock market crashed?

I remember when the S&P lost about 20% of its value in a week, I believe in Sept 2008. It happened so fast and I was so bewildered at what was happening that I didn't have time to react. So I just went along for the ride, hoping for a recovery. I was so mad in early 2009 that the market had lost...
by hollowcave2
Tue Jul 23, 2013 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did Bogleheads do when the stock market crashed?
Replies: 127
Views: 80049

Re: Isn't it a good thing if bond prices fall?

Personally, I'd love to see some higher rates. Overall, this will give me a higher expected total return, since I also have a long time horizon.
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 22, 2013 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Isn't it a good thing if bond prices fall?
Replies: 125
Views: 10860

Re: any help is appreciated!

The only thing I'll suggest is simplify the bond portion by just going with the short or intermediate term bond index. Since you specified a shorter horizon of less than 10 years, I'd prefer the short term total bond index.
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 22, 2013 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any help is appreciated!
Replies: 21
Views: 1519

Re: If BF nav drops, will i get money back if held to avg du

Basically, yes. At least in that simple scenario. Even if you don't reinvest the proceeds, this will happen. You're still getting cash flow. If you do reinvest, you're adding more shares which will add more cash flow and recover a little faster. If you keep duration short to intermediate, I don't th...
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If BF nav drops, will i get money back if held to avg dur?
Replies: 16
Views: 1377

Re: Selling Mutual Funds & ETFs

If you have a Vanguard mutual fund account and/or a Vanguard VBS account (for the ETFs), then the commissions would be zero on both.

An exception could be selling out on a mutual fund in a short time for some funds, but that's avoidable if you know that going in.
by hollowcave2
Sat Jul 20, 2013 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Mutual Funds & ETFs
Replies: 6
Views: 623

Re: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."

I hope the theory about secular bear and bull markets is true because if it is, we may be on the cusp of a new secular bull. It's too hard to tell yet. We seem to be making new highs and recovering well but it could also languish here. A secular bear need not end at the lows. It can end at the highs...
by hollowcave2
Fri Jul 19, 2013 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."
Replies: 63
Views: 5893

Re: Open limit order to sell same as selling covered calls?

You can, but you need approval from your broker. There are some differences between the limit order and covered calls besides the extra income from the call. With the limit order, it's possible to get a higher price whereas the covered call is set at the strike. And with a covered call, you've alrea...
by hollowcave2
Wed Jul 17, 2013 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Same in terms of impact on good fat tail?
Replies: 4
Views: 244

Re: buy and hold no matter what?

You could rebalance if it's consistent with your investor profile. That's not the same as just taking the money out. But it also seems you are listening to short term trends. How do you know the market won't go further? The market always fluctuates, and often, large drops are recovered very quickly....
by hollowcave2
Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: buy and hold no matter what?
Replies: 26
Views: 2309

Re: I want term, they're pushing whole life.

In general, I wouldn't go with whole life. It tends to be expensive. And I don't like your description of the investments in it. The most compromise I'd make is a variable life policy. For most people's needs, term works best. But you have to realize that buying term also puts responsibility on you ...
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I want term, they're pushing whole life.
Replies: 48
Views: 3542

Re: ETFs or Mutual Funds, for someone who's starting?

I like nisiprius post on the psychological aspects of investing in ETF's. I think John Bogle would agree with his statements. Bogle also in not a fan of ETF's because these instruments tend to encourage trading and speculation. That doesn't need to be, but human psychology tends to be drawn in to th...
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETFs or Mutual Funds, for someone who's starting?
Replies: 18
Views: 838

Re: Is it worth losing Admiral status on a fund to rebalance

I would have a hard time with losing Admiral status and doubling my expense ratio. I'd keep the Admiral status and keep adding money from other sources, like your income.
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it worth losing Admiral status on a fund to rebalance?
Replies: 21
Views: 2156

Re: A Dangerous Misunderstanding about Bond Rates?

But reading these threads it seems to me that a lot of people are confused and think that a immediate rise in the yield of a fund means that they will be earning more each month. I think most people on this board are savvy enough to know that it takes time. Most investors also know about the concep...
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Dangerous Misunderstanding about Bond Rates?
Replies: 124
Views: 10655

Re: TIPS (VIPSX) vs I-Bonds

I agree with Mel. I-bonds can never return a negative yield, so I-bonds look good right now despite the low rates. You can't go wrong with I-bonds. You're guaranteed to keep up with inflation, tax deferred, and you cannot lose money. Just remember that you can't redeem them for a year. So I would ma...
by hollowcave2
Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS (VIPSX) vs I-Bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 3208

Re: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining F

Well, the fund is cheaper now. I've held this fund for a number of years and I'll add to my position. The problem is, does this price represent the bottom? It's going to fluctuate some more. This is a good case for dollar cost averaging. Of course, there's also no reason to hold a sector fund. I hav...
by hollowcave2
Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 8727
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