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Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

LadyGeek wrote:I should mention that William Bernstein's book is a FREE download. See the wiki: Books: recommendations and reviews, 2nd paragraph.


Free for prime members, but .99 isn't much to complain about!
by gvsucavie03
Sat Oct 11, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 389336

Re: Vanguard: Has indexing gotten too big

susze wrote:Article from vanguard.

Am a little surprised that they talked about investing being a zero sum game. But maybe it helps make their case.



https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... ing-092014



Which article are you referring to?
by gvsucavie03
Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Has indexing gotten too big
Replies: 7
Views: 878

Re: Dave Ramsey: The Legacy Journey

Unfortunately most of the commments here are regarding Daves fpu, where the legacy journey is what to do to leave a legacy after you have done all of his baby steps, ie, completely debt free incLuding house, saving 15% or more toward retirement, children education payed for, etc. https://www.davera...
by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey: The Legacy Journey
Replies: 41
Views: 5715

Re: Is having 100% large cap not diverse enough?

Read Taylor Larimore's 18-page thread about a Three-Fund portfolio (I realize yours has 4, but 2% doesn't move anything by much). You are just fine as along as you are comfortable with the allocation to stocks and bonds and US to Int. stocks. +1 to others who said you have more than large-cap... not...
by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is having 100% large cap not diverse enough?
Replies: 49
Views: 3200

Re: Dave Ramsey: The Legacy Journey

My wife and I went to a Total Money Makeover Live event a year ago and, yes, it's a big commercial mixed with some content. All the same stuff he's preached for decades. My wife and I got in the car and looked at her and she said "so tell me what you really thought" and I replied "I'm...
by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey: The Legacy Journey
Replies: 41
Views: 5715

Re: Investments for beginners.

Welcome! A beginner's worry is not the what to invest in, it's the how much do I invest each month/year. A simple target retirement fund in your 401(k)/Roth IRA is perfectly fine for 80% or more of investors. Glad to hear you are going to be free of debt! Congratulations! I suggest you start with th...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investments for beginners.
Replies: 6
Views: 593

Re: Total Stock Market Index Fund Report

Bogleheads: Morningstar recently reported that only 8 of 1,144 funds with Analyst Ratings have beaten their category averages for at least ten straight years. Total Stock Market Index Fund is one of them! THE LONGEST WINNING STREAKS AMONG OUR RATED FUNDS Best wishes. Taylor As well as Fidelity and ...
by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 389336

Re: T-Bills and The Three Fund Portfolio

I may have missed this in the 18 pages of this great thread, but where do t-bills fit into the 3-fund portfolio? Is it covered in TBM treasuries? I remember reading over and over in Bogle on Mutual Funds that they are an essential asset class. gvsucavieo3: In Bogle on Mutual Funds , Mr. Bogle offer...
by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 389336

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

I may have missed this in the 18 pages of this great thread, but where do t-bills fit into the 3-fund portfolio? Is it covered in TBM treasuries? I remember reading over and over in Bogle on Mutual Funds that they are an essential asset class. Have you seen the WIKI http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/T...
by gvsucavie03
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 389336

Re: Why Invest in Bonds in your early 30s?

What if you lose 30-50% of your life savings, will you just sit there and watch your hard earned money evaporate and say "no big deal, it will come back eventually..it may take 10 or 15 years, but it's ok."? Are you sure you will not panic and sell? If the answer is yes, then I say go for...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Invest in Bonds in your early 30s?
Replies: 43
Views: 3736

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

I may have missed this in the 18 pages of this great thread, but where do t-bills fit into the 3-fund portfolio? Is it covered in TBM treasuries? I remember reading over and over in Bogle on Mutual Funds that they are an essential asset class.
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 389336

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

I'm not saying 100% TSM, S&P, treasuries or anything else at all... gvsycavie Now why is that more of a stomach tester than the 40 year period when large growth stocks underperformed long Treasuries? All portfolios with risky assets will put investor stomachs to the test ---and that includes TSM...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4744

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

Had the investor started a SCV portfolio in 1985, s/he would be behind by a considerable margin to the overall market (all Large and Mid-Cap styles). FWIW starting in 85-13 TSM 11.3 and FF SV 13.3 And had the stomach to take that ride and be completely passive.... I'm sweating just thinking about it!
by gvsucavie03
Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4744

Re: Investing $100

First, stop worrying about your FICO score and building credit. Focus on building your wealth. Cut up the credit card. Credit cards have absolutely nothing to do with net worth. Save 3-6 (maybe even 8) months of expenses in a liquid emergency fund. $100 doesn't get you far in the investment world. I...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $100
Replies: 15
Views: 1870

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

Well, S&P 500 funds track TSM very well, with a shade less return and a shade less risk. Both seem to track return vs risk very closely. So in the large cap case a few hundred stocks gives functionally as much diversification as a few thousand. I would expect it would take more small cap stocks...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4744

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

You really need to read Taylor's entire Three-Fund Portfolio thread... Changed my mind about a lot of things.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=88005
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4744

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

JonnyFive, in the end it comes down to this: there are smarter ways to invest. If this were really a good idea, almost all young investors would be doing it. The fact that you are asking is a sign that you don't know enough to invest in such a portfolio. Risk is even riskier when you don't understa...
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4744

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

JonnyFive, in the end it comes down to this: there are smarter ways to invest. If this were really a good idea, almost all young investors would be doing it. The fact that you are asking is a sign that you don't know enough to invest in such a portfolio. Risk is even riskier when you don't understa...
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4744

Re: Strong dollar = tilt international?

Consider it an opportunity to rebalance, not change course. It'll be completely different next year, in 5 years, 10, etc.
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar = tilt international?
Replies: 15
Views: 1526

Re: How much value can an advisor add for the average invest

Not enough to offset what they charge/churn. An average non-boglehead investor in a TR fund will do just fine... no babysitting required.
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much value can an advisor add for the average investor?
Replies: 71
Views: 5087

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

Very dangerous my friend... And as mentioned above, you don't have a good exit strategy in 20-30 years if scv is doing poorly. All of that potential reward will be wiped out as you (hopefully) transition to FI.

Diversify!
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4744

Re: Do i need to invest in bonds?

Diversify.... Don't lose your shirt!
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do i need to invest in bonds?
Replies: 11
Views: 1126

Re: Help with allocation

Hopefully you will also realize that 80/20 is very aggressive for your age. I'm 33 and do "age -15" in bonds (about 20% bonds). A major market downtown poses substantial risk for you, especially without a lot of assets.
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 574

Re: Personal Personal Taxes and Budget (Scenario Check)

Pay off the car today and rebuild the EF over the next couple months. You have plenty in Roth IRA contributions if you have a real emergency in the meanwhile. That frees up $470/mo. to help rebuild faster, too.
by gvsucavie03
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Taxes and Budget (Scenario Check)
Replies: 13
Views: 1102

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

placeholder wrote:
gvsucavie03 wrote:In the example they have $200K more, but absolutely no guarantee...

Which is of course what I said in the very beginning but perhaps the exercise was useful to you in some fashion.


Glad we agree on something.
by gvsucavie03
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

In the example they have $200K more, but absolutely no guarantee... they could also LOSE $200K. Not likely, but not impossible. Still saved $90K. You got me - the example does have an incorrect mental addition of $90K. Sorry. The risk of a complete loss still stands. Still, why would I pay a bank al...
by gvsucavie03
Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

Where did that 90k come from because that interest difference is already accounted for by the shorter amortization period (no one gives you a check for the 90k) although to be an accurate analysis you should have had a lower interest rate on the 15 year loan. True, but you did save almost $100,000....
by gvsucavie03
Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

the thinker - if returns end up being 5%, you were better off on a 15 year note.
by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

Sure you can but that gets back into those "guaranteed" versus "expected" returns. Not sure I follow... 15-year versus 30-year mortgage is like a core principle of personal finance. Go with 15, save tens of thousands in mortgage interest, house is paid off much sooner. If you to...
by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

You can't beat tens of thousands of dollars saved in interest on the 15 yr Sure you can but that gets back into those "guaranteed" versus "expected" returns. Not sure I follow... 15-year versus 30-year mortgage is like a core principle of personal finance. Go with 15, save tens ...
by gvsucavie03
Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

If you put down more, could you get a better mortgage rate? That 4.1% seems very high to me. However, if it is a jumbo, I don't know if it is high or not. Are you already committed to that mortgage rate or can you still shop around? I can still shop but that's the best I found from 3 different bank...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Why is it some would poopoo ETF's in general. In other words, what could possibly be wrong with a ETF portfolio of Total Stock Market, Total International, and Total Bond Market, properly allocated? It's generally not suited for the average investor in a retirement account. No ability to automatica...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 389336

Re: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?

This is what I'd personally do.... lots of debate, but it's what my wife and I are doing.... (a small stock-pile for an emergency fund... but not too much. We have $1,000 plus various budgeted savings categories) 1. pay off student loan debts first, little to no investing 2. save 20% down for a hous...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I invest or pay higher mortgage downpayment?
Replies: 55
Views: 3369

Re: Hi [Portfolio help]

You've landed in the right place. If you want to see that $200,000 return it's fair share of market returns over the long run, do exactly what the consensus of this thread and the wiki says to. Also, the best book I know about novice investing is "Boglehead's Guide to Investing." Get it fr...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hi [Portfolio help]
Replies: 4
Views: 355

Re: Hi Bogleheads, Fixed Annuity inside 401k - thoughts?

Hi guys, Ive just recently started to pay attention to my retirement. Ive been putting money into my 401k at work for a year or so and started to ramp it up and plan to really start ramping it up this coming year once i get some debt paid off. My question is that it appears my only investments or f...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hi Bogleheads, Fixed Annuity inside 401k - thoughts?
Replies: 28
Views: 1426

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Dyloot wrote:For me, it's 90-10 for now until something else makes sense.


You mean, what your IPS dictates :wink:
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5731

Re: Married couple starting out - advice

I commend you for combining finances with your spouse. Spouses must be in unity unless an extreme financial situation exists. Ditch the lease... you are renting your car. They are making a killing off of you. QUESTIONS 1. First, what would you change about our investments? Should we both just put 10...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Married couple starting out - advice
Replies: 11
Views: 732

Re: How does this portfolio look like?

Can't you purchase bonds with lower tax liability versus what you have listed? Also, to make this portfolio happen in and of itself is a lot of realized capital gains... Go slow and methodical. My suggestion of 3-fund works in taxable and tax-deferred. Can you move most or all of your tax-deferred t...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does this portfolio look like?
Replies: 6
Views: 602

Re: Suggestions for a Western States road trip?

I LOVE Denver. If you get a chance to see the city, please do.

Drive through northern CA on your way to OR to see the redwoods. Ashland OR is also a beautiful town.
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for a Western States road trip?
Replies: 21
Views: 1995

Re: Why invest in bonds?

I definitely don't recommend 100% bonds, but it should make someone think that maybe they're worthwhile. Too many people see those handy tools that show expected rates of return, with 100% stocks on top, and just figure they should get the most out of their money without realizing what they're sign...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6771

Re: How does this portfolio look like?

Why not just hold a simple (yet highly sophisticated) Three Fund Portfolio? Adding TIPS in retirement transition???

Because you are in an all-taxable account, rebalancing this will be very costly. Tax efficiency (fewer funds to mess with) will be to your advantage.
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does this portfolio look like?
Replies: 6
Views: 602

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

...posting a thread that's obviously mocking and deriding people strikes me as out of character for this site. Not mocking... pointing out faulty logic, over-confidence, and overly-romanticized recency bias that comes in a strong bull market. I think this thread reminds us to not develop superman s...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5731

Re: Why invest in bonds?

Claver and abyan both brought up points about fear preventing investors from holding more stock. As I see it, the idea that bonds are there to help you "sleep well at night" should be put out of its misery. This causes mistakes in both directions. Aggressive investors hear that bonds are ...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6771

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Ha! This is great, thank you for starting this!
by gvsucavie03
Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5731

Re: Why invest in bonds?

A lot of people would be willing to take the risk involved in making the assumptions mentioned above This is VERY true. It is also very true that 70-80% of investors underperform basic market indexes because they think like the rest of your OP. You're not superman, and you're cherry-picking data. B...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6771

Re: International allocation

Where am I wrong, here? Not wrong, just some folks don't like adding that much risk for the diversification Int. stocks allow. I really don't think there is a right answer here. You have that completely backwards. You can't possibly have LESS risk by heavily tilting towards a single country. Unless...
by gvsucavie03
Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5288

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

On his 25th birthday, he should change to a 90/10 allocation and decide from there how the "glide path" will take shape. Either hold on at 90/10 or start changing every year (age - 15). Using Age-15, starting the glide at age 25 puts him at 60/40 at age 55, and 50/50 at age 65. A TR fund h...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Aug 24, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3893

Re: International allocation

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:Thanks for clarifying with the dates from the original graph, I wasn't exactly sure what time period that was covering.


No problem.

Vanguard places Total Int on level 5 of risk while TSM is level 4. There is much to say about the additional risk of having a greater international holding.
by gvsucavie03
Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5288

Re: International allocation

Taken from Rick Ferri off of a google search for "efficiency frontier - US stock/Int Stock" http://i61.tinypic.com/bev8e1.png Be careful there...depends on what time period you're looking at doesn't it? http://i.imgur.com/oP9dy.jpg http://i.imgur.com/oP9dy.jpg First image covers a much lo...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5288

Re: Buy & Hold Forever Blue Chip Stocks???

SuperSaver wrote:Thanks to the wise BG community. I will take my hard earned salary and stick with index funds. I was tempted by the fantasy blue chip market by $0 trades on my Merrill Edge account. If anything, I will use a tiny allotment of play money to ride the wave.


:beer
by gvsucavie03
Sun Aug 24, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy & Hold Forever Blue Chip Stocks???
Replies: 73
Views: 4903
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