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Re: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?

Thank you for the link and the analysis. I am skeptical of the PE10 stuff, or any "smoothed" earnings that include late 2008 and early 2009. Shaughnessy's analysis takes February 2009 as its base, and that is a very distorted time period. For Shiller's PE10 to be meaningful as a future pr...
by gt4715b
Sat Sep 06, 2014 11:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1247

Re: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?

Thank you for your thoughts about this. I agree that the 2 year horizon makes the selections relatively regime-dependent, as you term it, and that is a key idea. But I am not looking for a portfolio that might offer the absolute MAXIMUM return, but one that offers the best probability of 25% over t...
by gt4715b
Sat Sep 06, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1247

Re: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?

Your 2 year time horizon means that your portfolio has to be highly regime dependent, meaning you have to examine where the markets are. To me, given that the US stock market is by most measures overvalued I would stay away from it. I would try to go with value and hope that you get the returns. I w...
by gt4715b
Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: How to Design an Aggressive 2 Year Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1247

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

Active bond funds are a horrible idea. Between the fact that there just isn't a lot of room to achieve outsize returns over the long term (such a large portion of the return comes from income) and the higher expense ratio, you'll never come out ahead. If you believe interest rates will be higher in ...
by gt4715b
Mon Sep 01, 2014 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 5712

Re: DFA-RAFI & factor diversification within 30:30:40 portfo

Great work Robert as always. Couple questions: 1. I know you use the 30:30:40 portfolio to meet your personal factor loading targets but do you think that omitting the mid value would yield a more efficient portfolio, say something like 35:65 MTUM:PSXV? 2. What are your current thoughts regarding in...
by gt4715b
Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA-RAFI & factor diversification within 30:30:40 portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 1981

Re: Zegna Suits

Just to clarify, these aren't my rankings but rather the Styleforum folks. Also, the COMBINED sales of all of these suits probably make up <3% of suits sold, so what they're calling mediocre is in reality a darn good suit. At this point you should just get it especially since you don't have much tim...
by gt4715b
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zegna Suits
Replies: 197
Views: 9528

Re: Zegna Suits

Just to give you an idea, here is a suit hierarchy from Styleforum.net which is full of people that obsess over this stuff. I don't have any real knowledge of that end of the market (I'm fine with one of the higher end SuitSupply suits) but my feel is that Zegna is probably at point where you're sti...
by gt4715b
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Zegna Suits
Replies: 197
Views: 9528

Re: How do I calculate profitability using online data?

I just want to look at the distribution of profitability for say the S&P 500 so I need to compute it directly. Doing the regressions isn't usually considered valid at the individual security level.
by gt4715b
Sun Aug 10, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I calculate profitability using online data?
Replies: 8
Views: 615

Re: How do I calculate profitability using online data?

I'm specifically interested in the profitability metric since it is one of the factors being examined in the literature. As far SEC database, this won't work because I need it to be in chart form so that I can extract the data automatically.
by gt4715b
Sun Aug 10, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I calculate profitability using online data?
Replies: 8
Views: 615

How do I calculate profitability using online data?

I'm trying to calculate the profitability factor as defined in the Robert Novy-Marx paper from the free online data sources like Yahoo Finance, Google Finance or Bloomberg. I'm not a business type so all the accounting terms are kind of confusing to me. I think the general idea is just gross profits...
by gt4715b
Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I calculate profitability using online data?
Replies: 8
Views: 615

Great long-term reliability data for used cars

I came across this website and I think that what they're trying to do will help used car buyers immensely. We all kind of know the more reliable and less reliable brands but this will put hard data to those assumptions. The basic idea is this guy who works in the car auction business collects inspec...
by gt4715b
Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Great long-term reliability data for used cars
Replies: 3
Views: 584

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

I've been examining this idea for awhile now and it's very interesting indeed. For context about the 99 stocks issue I looked at the number of stocks in the MSCI Large/Mid Cap indices (85% of market universe) for the countries he's invested in to see how many stocks are available: Brazil 75 Ireland ...
by gt4715b
Sat May 24, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 36
Views: 3851

Anybody really good with GPS logging for travel?

I have a GPS Logger, one of the GStarz units to be specific. The logger itself works great, but I'm having trouble on the software side. I like to be able to manipulate the data to find things like the total amount of time I walked in a day and the total distance, etc. I just leave the logger on all...
by gt4715b
Fri May 16, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody really good with GPS logging for travel?
Replies: 0
Views: 157

How to manage credit card cycle

I have a question about how the credit card billing cycle works if you want to pay off your bill each month and avoid interest payments. Is it true that as long as you pay the entire statement balance on your bill by the due date each that it doesn't matter what charges you make until the next billi...
by gt4715b
Tue Dec 10, 2013 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to manage credit card cycle
Replies: 5
Views: 897

Re: Where to go in Europe in the Winter?

The previous responses have the right idea. Between the cold weather and the short days if your main goal is exploring, northern Europe is not a good option. If you were going before Christmas the Christmas markets in Germany/Austria would probably be worthwhile, but otherwise go south. Imagine aski...
by gt4715b
Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to go in Europe in the Winter?
Replies: 20
Views: 1514

Re: Total world investing - "owning the market"

Because any other allocation is basically a tilt away from the market portfolio. The logical extension of "owning the market" in a given asset class is to own the market across the different asset classes as well. You're letting the tail wag the dog. We don't invest to hold a market portf...
by gt4715b
Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total world investing - "owning the market"
Replies: 23
Views: 2865

Re: Drying clothes in the sun - worth the hassle?

I'll just add that my clothes look a lot newer from air (or sun) drying than using the dryer. The lint is all the damage done to your clothes, getting frayed out. I wonder if it's really the washer that causes the damage to the clothes. Maybe dryers are just more efficient in removing the damage (l...
by gt4715b
Sun Aug 25, 2013 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drying clothes in the sun - worth the hassle?
Replies: 86
Views: 6631

Re: Drying clothes in the sun - worth the hassle?

Some thoughts: 1. Isn't the UV from sunlight as harsh on clothes as a drier used wisely (low heat)? UV light can definitely fade colors pretty quickly in my experience. 2. Newer, fast spinning washers make indoor rack drying the best option in my opinion. The clothes come out almost dry. 3. If you l...
by gt4715b
Sun Aug 25, 2013 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drying clothes in the sun - worth the hassle?
Replies: 86
Views: 6631

Re: Dremel variable speed rotary tool

I personally would get a high quality tool, like the Dremel, that will last you instead of trying to get one of the cheaper rotary tools. The rotary tool in general comes in handy more times than you would think. I used mine to cut 1 inch glass tile for my kitchen backsplash which would have been ha...
by gt4715b
Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dremel variable speed rotary tool
Replies: 15
Views: 884

Re: Best way to legally pay a baby sitter

As wilked noted you are paying your mother-in-law under the market rate, probably enough that it's still cheaper than paying the market rate and then trying to get reimbursed. Why not be happy that your child will be cared for by a loving relative for less than a formal childcare provider and call i...
by gt4715b
Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to legally pay a baby sitter
Replies: 24
Views: 2707

Re: Your worst financial habit

Not budgeting for my food/beverage consumption, by far. I'm pretty good with other aspects but can't seem to come up with a good mechanism for limiting my spending in this area.
by gt4715b
Fri Jun 14, 2013 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your worst financial habit
Replies: 84
Views: 10810

Re: Good place to travel in July?

- Chile (off season) - Argentina (off season) - Iceland (peak but still not crowded) - Cape Breton Nova Scotia (peak but still not crowded). These are some of the nicest places to visit on the planet. This close to the travel dates flights for Iceland are way too expensive, around $1500. The same a...
by gt4715b
Sun Jun 09, 2013 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good place to travel in July?
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Good place to travel in July?

Thanks for the replies. Forget about the budget part. That was mainly to discourage people from saying, hey Fuji is really nice this time of year. I'm thinking going up north is going to be the best option. Nice summertime weather without being too hot. What about Olympic National Park? I think that...
by gt4715b
Sun Jun 09, 2013 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good place to travel in July?
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Good place to travel in July?

I'm looking for a place to travel in early July. However, I'm a little out of ideas since a lot of the places on my list are not great to visit in July. I'm looking for a place, in the US or internationally that: 1. Is not in its high season, meaning not lots of tourists. 2. Experiences daytime temp...
by gt4715b
Sun Jun 09, 2013 8:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good place to travel in July?
Replies: 24
Views: 1703

Re: Vanguard Should Have Passive Funds, Without Indexes

You're really saying "blind adherence to an index has costs" not "using an index hurts". I don't think trading costs and liquidity costs are an issues except for microcaps (>99% of market cap space). DFA is heavily invest in the microcap area both in the US and internationally. I...
by gt4715b
Fri May 17, 2013 6:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Should Have Passive Funds, Without Indexes
Replies: 13
Views: 1307

Re: 3 day wait for rebalancing

They're waiting until the ETF trades settle, i.e, you actually get the money from the person you sold your ETFs to. This takes 3 business days. This is normal.
by gt4715b
Wed May 15, 2013 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 day wait for rebalancing
Replies: 7
Views: 650

Re: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence

I've been using book value in the accounting sense (as should have been clear from my posts): "In accounting, book value or carrying value is the value of an asset according to its balance sheet account balance. For assets, the value is based on the original cost of the asset less any deprecia...
by gt4715b
Wed May 15, 2013 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence
Replies: 169
Views: 11391

Re: Source for P/B data for foreign stocks?

Thanks. For the time being I think I can use Bloomberg for what I'm looking to do. By the way, for P/B, P/E and dividend yield for entire markets I use MSCI factsheets which are updated monthly (a couple of business days after month-end). The iShares ETF data don't match and are strangely higher for...
by gt4715b
Sat May 11, 2013 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Source for P/B data for foreign stocks?
Replies: 5
Views: 347

Source for P/B data for foreign stocks?

I'm trying to find a good, reliable source for basic financial data (P/B,P/E, dividend yield, etc.) for foreign equities including those that don't have ADRs in the US. I guess the de-facto sources are Bloomberg and Yahoo, but I was wondering if there was anything better. It doesn't have to be a fre...
by gt4715b
Fri May 10, 2013 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Source for P/B data for foreign stocks?
Replies: 5
Views: 347

Re: Use "promo codes" to save money

You may want to also consider the Honey extension for Chrome. It is helpful on certain sites, like Amazon (so browse to Amazon using the Bogleheads referral link, select your products, then at checkout, have Honey automatically check for coupon codes). http://joinhoney.com/ Good link, thanks. The w...
by gt4715b
Sun May 05, 2013 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Use "promo codes" to save money
Replies: 12
Views: 3740

Re: Vanguard Total INTL - the right amount of Emerging?

VGTSX contains the market weighting of Emerging Markets with respect to all international(non-US) Markets. You won't have the "worldwide" or global weighting for EM because you're holding 50/50 US/International which slightly overweights the US. The US market weight is 47.4% as of last mon...
by gt4715b
Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total INTL - the right amount of Emerging?
Replies: 7
Views: 1415

Re: "Minimize Fat-Tails" Portfolio Question

Larry, The factors of value and size ARE included in the total market portfolio and they help make up “market beta”. They are held in the same proportion as they exist “in total” of all marketable securities. Now if we follow your suggestion and add more (tilt/overweight) SCV we will pick up more s...
by gt4715b
Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Minimize Fat-Tails" Portfolio Question
Replies: 35
Views: 3237

Re: Roll out initial investments over how long time?

I would probably split the difference, investing immediately in the bond and international equity portion of your portfolio and then DCA-ing the US equity portion, where valuations are higher.
by gt4715b
Sat Apr 27, 2013 8:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roll out initial investments over how long time?
Replies: 20
Views: 952

Re: "value factor" doesn't seem reliable to me

I understand that, but I have a problem with the underlying assumption that we know the fundamentals. And if we don't know the fundamentals we can't isolate the stocks that are priced low relative to the fundamentals. Book value at its very basic is assets minus liabilities. Putting aside financial...
by gt4715b
Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "value factor" doesn't seem reliable to me
Replies: 66
Views: 3878

Re: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.

Your proposed asset allocation is way too aggressive for the situation. A 90/10 portfolio would have lost about 50% in 2008-2009. Would your mother really be able to handle seeing the portfolio drop to $3.5 million? I doubt it and you would end up selling out during the market downturn and decimatin...
by gt4715b
Tue Apr 16, 2013 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.
Replies: 105
Views: 13479

Re: One night hotel stay in D.C.

DC is expensive. Hotels there don't often offer discounts because they don't have to; their rooms are full regardless of discounts. That being said, you should be able to find a good room for less than $400. Try the Grand Hyatt. It's a huge conference hotel, but I've had luck finding rooms there fo...
by gt4715b
Wed Apr 10, 2013 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: One night hotel stay in D.C.
Replies: 42
Views: 2996

Re: International investing = large bet on weak $ ?

Thank you for the reference. The article makes the case of why Vanguard is hedging currencies for its international bond funds. The chart you mentioned above shows addition to the volatility, not to return. I wonder how it affects both, volatility AND how it affects the returns and whether much of ...
by gt4715b
Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing = large bet on weak $ ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1859

Re: International investing = large bet on weak $ ?

If you're in the accumulation stage it doesn't make a significant impact on your returns. Over the long term, the dollar vs. other currencies has a zero expected return and since equities are already volatile the added volatility of currency exchange rates doesn't add much volatility to a hedged int...
by gt4715b
Tue Apr 09, 2013 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing = large bet on weak $ ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1859

Re: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies

I just happened to see this article which is relevant to the thread. “Why do people love dividends? Because they don’t understand either corporate finance or taxes.” At this point people either understand or they don't. The good thing is that as long as they are properly diversified they aren't doin...
by gt4715b
Wed Apr 03, 2013 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies
Replies: 439
Views: 37342

Re: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies

I think the point is that the income is fixed dollars and the share price is variable. When the market drop 30% you still get your dividend in the same number of dollars as before, but when you sell shares you need to sell 42% more shares to get your income. ... It is assumed that in the first case...
by gt4715b
Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors chase dividend paying strategies
Replies: 439
Views: 37342

Re: Help the novice: VSS divs 'quarterly’ but no divs?

I wouldn't get too worried about this. It's most likely due to the fact that not very many of these small companies distribute dividends quarterly. If we look at the distributions from last year we see: Dividend $1.95000 12/24/2012 Dividend $0.75500 09/26/2012 Last year was a special case where Vang...
by gt4715b
Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help the novice: VSS divs 'quarterly’ but no divs?
Replies: 27
Views: 826

Re: Adding regular new money to portfolio - DCA vs rebalance

There's not a lot of real difference between Option 1 and Option 2. Some version of Option 1 is better than Option 2 because you won't have assets sitting in cash. Option 1 is rebalancing; it's just slower than actually selling one asset to purchase another. What you can do is just monitor your port...
by gt4715b
Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding regular new money to portfolio - DCA vs rebalance
Replies: 19
Views: 1171

Re: Performance of BRSIX

I'm not sure I understand what the benefit is in using a microcap fund. If you want to tilt to small/value it seems like a more efficient way to do it is with a TSM/SCV mix. With the increased costs in terms of higher expense ratio and increased tracking error what is the argument for using a separa...
by gt4715b
Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Performance of BRSIX
Replies: 4
Views: 573

Re: Am I on track for early retirement?

A quick back of the envelope calculation shows that starting at 150k today and adding 22.5k yearly with increases due to inflation shows final account values (in today's dollars) in 18 years of: 2% Real return: 696k (27k yearly income with 4% withdrawal) 3% Real return: 782k 4% Real return: 881k (35...
by gt4715b
Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I on track for early retirement?
Replies: 25
Views: 3129

Re: Schwab's new Fundamental ETFs

It looks like the Russell Fundamental index series is equivalent to the FTSE RAFI Fundamental series so I don't think these new ETFs represent anything new in terms of market exposure. For example, “FNDB” Russell Fundamental U.S. Index = mix of PRF/PRFZ “FNDX” Russell Fundamental U.S. Large Company ...
by gt4715b
Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's new Fundamental ETFs
Replies: 62
Views: 8136

Re: Country Fund ETF

This isn't the best, or even a good, way of valuing stock markets. The more traditional metrics like price to book or price to eanings are more appropriate. 4. Sometimes, a company in smaller country becomes a multinational; think Samsung. It then would get dropped from the single country indices so...
by gt4715b
Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Country Fund ETF
Replies: 4
Views: 388

Re: Finance Home Remodeling

You're modelling the 401k opportunity cost wrong or at least there's another way to do it. If you take the loan from the bond portion of your portfolio, meaning that the stock/bond ratio in your 401k increases throughout the life of the loan, then the expected return should only be that of total bon...
by gt4715b
Sat Mar 16, 2013 11:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finance Home Remodeling
Replies: 29
Views: 2097

Re: Does Vanguard hide fees?

This is silly. If we look at Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VTSMX) since its inception on 4/27/93:
VTSMX: 8.73%
Index: 8.87%

That 0.14% difference, over 20 years, is less than the expense ratio.

In my opinion, this guy loses credibility making claims like these.
by gt4715b
Mon Mar 04, 2013 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard hide fees?
Replies: 45
Views: 4120

Re: Reported YTD Fund Return Doesn't Match What I Got: Why?

We need more information about where you're getting the return data. Are you calculating your ytd return yourself? If you take your Dec 31 balance and your Feb 28 balance it shoul exactly match the reported YTD return through Feb reported by the fund. If you're using tools than any number of issues ...
by gt4715b
Sat Mar 02, 2013 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reported YTD Fund Return Doesn't Match What I Got: Why?
Replies: 8
Views: 932

Re: Balancing risk with diversification

The main lever to increase returns without taking on unsystematic risk is your stock/bond allocation. In addition, there are those that follow the research showing additional premiums for value and small stock and own a higher percentage of these stocks. You said you're quite young, so at this point...
by gt4715b
Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Balancing risk with diversification
Replies: 22
Views: 1153
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