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by grok87
Tue May 19, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Didn't grok win last year? And up 23%+ already for 2015? Man, he's good. I think I will liquidate my index funds and give him all my money. Thanks protagonist, that's very kind. No i came in second last year, if memory serves, and I'm in 5th place this year. I'm thinking about Making a full time ca...
by grok87
Fri May 15, 2015 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

hmmm...pretty close race in 2-4th place. I predict I'll end up 2nd, same as last year...
by grok87
Sun May 10, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recently relocated family seeking advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1543

Re: Recently relocated family seeking advice

good point on the property taxes- those may or may not be tax deductible on your federal return. i believe they typically are deductible under regular income tax but not under AMT. i guess the idea of renting a condo as your primary residence and then buying a house to rent out at the same time stri...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 1915

Re: When to junk a car?

It's very simple. Add up the value of the car as-is with the cost of repair. If that number is smaller than the cost of a comparable condition vehicle without issues, then you repair it. For example, you estimate your G35 is $4500 and the cost of repair is $1900. Then I would repair it if a same ye...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 1915

Re: When to junk a car?

I was just reading somewhere that if you take good care of your car you should reasonably expect to get it to 200,000 miles. That author must not know anything about German cars. I'm struggling with these old car issues as well. I have a 14 year old Honda Odyssey with low mileage (i take the train ...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recently relocated family seeking advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1543

Re: Recently relocated family seeking advice

We are new to this forum and would like to thank you all in advance for your insights. We are a 51 year couple with a pre-teen kid recently relocated to the SF Bay Area. We earn in the mid $100k's, rent a home and live a modest lifestyle. Currently we have about $800k (5% roth, 35% 401k, 25% broker...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 1915

Re: When to junk a car?

I was just reading somewhere that if you take good care of your car you should reasonably expect to get it to 200,000 miles. That author must not know anything about German cars. I'm struggling with these old car issues as well. I have a 14 year old Honda Odyssey with low mileage (i take the train ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 9614

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

SO [ extract from this post by grok87 ] does not seem to paint a pretty picture for International Bonds Index - like Vanguard VTIBX Grok was referring to unhedged inflation-linked international bonds. Therefore his comments don't really apply to Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund (VTIBX) ...
by grok87
Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

It's the end of the first quarter. I'm running at a slight loss near the middle of the pack: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List Here's the standings: ⋅ Baysian Stochastic Fund from Fortuitous Financial (Randolph) ⋅ Pocket Liner (Cayman) ⋅ Consternatio Part...
by grok87
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

I'm curious how well participants real portfolios mirror the selections in the contest? The biotech slide has hurt my virtual ego at number one. 99% of my portfolio is in indexed and/or vanguard funds. i only have a couple of individual stock positions for "fun"-they've worked out ok but ...
by grok87
Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

yay i'm in 3rd place!
congratulations 4nursebee
by grok87
Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 comma club (my way)!!
Replies: 49
Views: 8189

Re: 2 comma club (my way)!!

Hi, As usual, thanks to all who have helped me in so many ways that I cannot count or list! No, okay then...........If I must list, then some which come to my mind are; Nisi, livesoft, Emergdoc, retiredjg, Taylor,cruncher, ladyGeek,grok87,VictoriaF, grabiner,Frugalinvestor,gkaplan, bertilak, abus 3...
by grok87
Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?
Replies: 25
Views: 2568

Re: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?

Re the 30 year TIPs, I think the main point is that none of us know how long we are going to live. I think it is prudent to plan to live to 95 or so. It's really an insurance approach idea. You want insurance against the risk of outliving your money, or having your money eaten away by massive inflat...
by grok87
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 101
Views: 9126

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

Those of you who generally subscribe to Bogle-osophy but also have one or more equity positions that you intend to hold onto "forever": which ones are they? I have two: BRK(b) and AAPL. in the late 60s, early 70s there was a similar idea, called "one-decision" stocks. the idea w...
by grok87
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 101
Views: 9126

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

steve roy wrote:Mine is an ETF of Vanguard's Total Stock Market.

I swore off individual stocks during the period '08-'09, for reasons you can probably conjure up in your head without prompting from me.

+1
by grok87
Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

auction yield was 0.842%, not bad!
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

VictoriaF wrote:
grok87 wrote:4th place, within striking distance of 3rd.
http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
i'll take it!
:)


Good job! I am just below the mean but still in the positive territory.

Victoria

good job!
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Rational thinking suggests that when interest rates are below historical norms they are more likely to go up than down and visa versa. No guarantee of course. But locking in a historically very low rate for 30 years when you have good alternatives to establish you LMP later just doesn't seem like a...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Just had a look at the ssa life tables. Based on that, for a 65 year old man the 95th percentlie of age at death is 96 years old. For a 65 year old woman the 95th percentile of age at death is 99 years. So if you want to be 95. Percent certain of not outliving your tips, a man would stop buying tip...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Indicative Yield on Vanguard's site says 0.814% as of today. I will be almost 70 when this matures... At Vanguard it now shows 0.860%. Nice to see rates rising as the auction approaches. I agree, at some point one needs to start taking one's age into consideration. Personally I think i will scale b...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Indicative Yield on Vanguard's site says 0.814% as of today. I will be almost 70 when this matures... At Vanguard it now shows 0.860%. Nice to see rates rising as the auction approaches. I agree, at some point one needs to start taking one's age into consideration. Personally I think i will scale b...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

4th place, within striking distance of 3rd.
http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
i'll take it!
:)
by grok87
Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Indicative Yield on Vanguard's site says 0.814% as of today. I will be almost 70 when this matures... I agree, at some point one needs to start taking one's age into consideration. Personally I think i will scale back my buying as i approach retirement and stop buying when i hit 65. I think plannin...
by grok87
Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

29 year tip yield @ 0.745%. looks like my yield forecast of 0.75% for the 30 year auction may be too low!

1% here we come???
by grok87
Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Pizzasteve510 wrote:The directors of MONTAGE Index Liberty Fund <MILF> need cash to fund our interest in a particularly hit prospect.

Please liquidate our long holding of Amazon.com AMZN
Closing price 374.28 +23.9%

time to buy AMAZON and NETFLIX!
by grok87
Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

The Treasury issues a daily estimate of real yields, which translate to TIPS yields, and it's usually pretty accurate: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield At the close Friday the 30-year real yield was 0.68%, up 14 basis points...
by grok87
Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Hi grok, I'm on board with you for 1/3 of my annual purchase as well. I found your idea of a 0.52% floor interesting. I don't have a rule to fall back on, yet, although I have a hunch that I'll probably just follow rates down wherever they go and keep buying. I don't mind skipping one of the 3 auct...
by grok87
Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

29 year tips yield now at 0.68%. so 0.75% is looking good for the auction...
by grok87
Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3659

30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

So the next 30 year tips auction will be announced on February 12th. At that time you should be able to place orders with Vanguard, etc. The current real yield on the 29 year TIP is about 0.60%. The new 30 year tips will be a year longer, plus there is usually some extra yield from buying at auction...
by grok87
Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 15356

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Is the discussion on TIPs the same if one holds them via direct ownership (outright purchase say via Treasury Direct) or through a mutual fund such as VAIPX? I understand that one can loose value in the NAV buy holding a fund if the inflation rate declines. But, if you hold the TIPs directly with t...
by grok87
Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 15356

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

... newly auctioned tips have a valuable "deflation put" ... I just bought the 10 year tip at auction. Real yield was ... 0.315% ... what if there is deflation? Say inflation is -2% per year for 10 years. ... I will never get back less nominal dollars than i invested. So my nominal return...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 15356

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Why do Bogleheads love TIPS so much? I don't get it. The fed tries its best to control inflation (is it not their mandate?) and we haven't seen much unexpected inflation in decades. Why not just hold Total Bond Market or Intermediate-Term Munis? Won't those, over the long run, keep up with inflatio...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 15356

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

30 year tips real yield now at 0.485%. At this point I am stopping buying new 30 year tips. Still holding onto the ones I've got. If the real yield gets close to 0 I will be selling I was just noticing that 10 year TIPS was yielding approximately 0% and the 30 year approximately 0.5% and was consid...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 82
Views: 8552

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

I have abandoned tips before. I sold out of all my 30 year tips when the real rates got to like 0.2% or so. I started buying back in when the rate got back up to 0.6-0.7% Yes, I see... but of course we all know rates are only going to go up from here on out. :wink: ok so I'm halfway to abandoning t...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 15356

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

30 year tips real yield now at 0.485%. At this point I am stopping buying new 30 year tips. Still holding onto the ones I've got. If the real yield gets close to 0 I will be selling
by grok87
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 15356

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Is it time to give-up on TIPS? Having money is an excellent buffer for financial problems, as is being willing to adapt. Agree with both these points. ... Is it time to give-up on TIPS? Fully owning your own home or being willing to move are both good inflation buffers. Having discretionary spendin...
by grok87
Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 113
Views: 15356

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

TIPS are insurance against unexpected inflation. The time to buy (or keep) such insurance would be when no one expects much inflation.. Agree. The other thing i would add is that newly auctioned tips have a valuable "deflation put" I just bought the 10 year tip at auction. Real yield was ...
by grok87
Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard now taking orders for 10yr TIPS
Replies: 5
Views: 1438

Re: Vanguard now taking orders for 10yr TIPS

auction priced at a yield of 0.315%, a relatively good outcome.
I bought some
by grok87
Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, beep..
Replies: 499
Views: 104698

Re: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, be

Is the 30 year TIPS yield now ~1.4%? Even as 30 nominal treasuries are under 2.50%? According to http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield 0.76%. That says inflation should be about 1.7%. Actually, 0.76% is from Jan 2nd. As of today ...
by grok87
Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best albums from 2014?
Replies: 63
Views: 5863

Re: Best albums from 2014?

My favorite albums from 2014, not necessarily what I would call best. Azealia Banks - Broke with Expensive Taste Cloud Nothings - Here and Nowhere Else Death From Above 1979 - The Physical World FKA Twigs - LP1 Lana Del Rey - Ultraviolence Lykke Li - I Never Learn Run the Jewels - Run the Jewels 2 ...
by grok87
Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

same name as last year: Consternatio Partners

my 3 long stocks
BWS
JBLU
FSL

my 3 short stocks
RSO
ARR
WMC
by grok87
Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 556
Views: 21468

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

please put me down for 2125
by grok87
Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 82
Views: 8552

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Well, here are a few items that would surprise me... ⋅ Nisiprius will go all-in with SC Value slice & dice, including REITs, Int'l bonds and lots of CCF ⋅ Livesoft will dollar cost average his entire portfolio over the next 52 weeks into the core four ⋅ Grok will a...
by grok87
Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 17092

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

Congrats to SP-Diceman! Well Done!
by grok87
Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 160
Views: 16496

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

sounds good
by grok87
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice on Stock Options
Replies: 8
Views: 1300

Re: Advice on Stock Options

Greetings, I tried looking in the Wiki but didn't find anything specific. I'm hoping to hear what kind of criteria folks put in place when dealing with company stock options. I get typical yearly grants that are good for 10 years and vest over 5. What are some good rules of thumb as to when to exer...
by grok87
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return/Risk Assumptions
Replies: 5
Views: 685

Re: Real Return/Risk Assumptions

When considering the risk needed to get real returns, it is a hostile investing environment. It is impossible to obtain real returns by limiting risk to only fixed income investments, unless you accept extreme term or credit risk. Grok had a topic on this back in 2011. Returns were meager even then...
by grok87
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3470

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

Will future editions of The Bogleheads Guide to Investing still advise against holding long bonds, or have things changed? Obviously, long-term treasury bonds have done well this year, but gold also did well for ten years, quite recently, and of course performance alone is not a reason to hold an i...
by grok87
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vox: Why your brain loves procrastination
Replies: 7
Views: 1227

Re: Vox: Why your brain loves procrastination

great article- thanks for posting. "Roughly 5 percent of the population has such a problem with chronic procrastination that it seriously affects their lives." that seems like a low-ball estimate. personally i like 30 year tips. when i buy them i make a mental image of myself sending them ...
by grok87
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1314

Re: 401k questions

I am already investing into the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund via a tax deferred IRA. Yet I am thinking of stoping investing into it and going full time into my 401(k) via the funds below. In my 401(k) with the funds below I approximated the Three-Fund portfolio plus 5% in (TIPS) via a...

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