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Re: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014

grok87 wrote:... on bloomberg the WI market is showing 0.23/0.235
#cruncher wrote:Grok, do you have a link to a web page with when-issued TIPS quotes?


i got it from Bloomberg professional, the subscription service. i don't think its available on regular bloomberg or wsj.
by grok87
Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014
Replies: 17
Views: 1610

Re: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014

The Treasury announced today the auction next Thursday 7/24/2014 of a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) maturing July 15, 2024. (See the announcement PDF file .) $15 billion is being offered, the same amount as at the initial auctions in January and July the past couple of ye...
by grok87
Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New 10-Year TIPS Auction July 24 2014
Replies: 17
Views: 1610

Re: Memory foam mattresses - any insight?

I want to know all of your personal experiences with memory foam mattresses, good and bad. I don't trust some of the excellent reviews online. Call me a skeptic. here's a perhaps deliberately controversial statement. memory foam = toxic chemicals. i wouldn't get within 1 mile of it http://www.mothe...
by grok87
Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Memory foam mattresses - any insight?
Replies: 55
Views: 4100

Re: Memory foam mattresses - any insight?

I'm in the market for a new king size, memory foam mattress. I could go spend $3-8k for a Tempurpedic. Or I could spend $2-5k for a Sealy, Serta, or Simmons competitor of the Tempurpedic. Or I could buy this and foundation for about $700-800 delivered: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B003CT37LA/ref=twiste...
by grok87
Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Memory foam mattresses - any insight?
Replies: 55
Views: 4100

Re: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015

... but let's not forget what a bolt from the blue the original book was. Yes, I agree, the first edition was an epiphany. That is why I felt so betrayed when Malkiel backed-off his random walk stance in later editions. agree. but follow the money i guess. i'm sure he's been well-paid for his touti...
by grok87
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015
Replies: 33
Views: 2340

Re: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015

Leeraar wrote:And, he will say positive things about Wealthfront.

Personally, I plan to miss the latest edition of Malkiel's newsletter.

L.

agree. not quite sure if he will do so explicitly or if it will be cloaked. Depends upon how much shame he has.
by grok87
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015
Replies: 33
Views: 2340

Re: Who else hates choosing a car?

I do. We are gearing up to buy a new car and uggh boy do i hate the process. We used to just buy hondas but have recently become aware of a number of reliability issues with honda (transmissions on odysseys, windows on accords) so again uggh. I guess hondas aren't what they used to be. thinking abo...
by grok87
Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who else hates choosing a car?
Replies: 75
Views: 6402

Re: isolation of risk in equities vs. Roth tax efficiency

1) Break Grok's rule and go with available bond index funds in the 401k plans What are the bond index funds available in your 401k? I think it is difficult to manage a portfolio without at least 1 stock fund and 1 bond fund in the 401k. My guess is to break Grok's rule. I don't think Grok will mind...
by grok87
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: isolation of risk in equities vs. Roth tax efficiency
Replies: 6
Views: 900

Re: Who else hates choosing a car?

I do. We are gearing up to buy a new car and uggh boy do i hate the process. We used to just buy hondas but have recently become aware of a number of reliability issues with honda (transmissions on odysseys, windows on accords) so again uggh. I guess hondas aren't what they used to be. thinking abo...
by grok87
Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who else hates choosing a car?
Replies: 75
Views: 6402

Re: Who else hates choosing a car?

I do. We are gearing up to buy a new car and uggh boy do i hate the process. We used to just buy hondas but have recently become aware of a number of reliability issues with honda (transmissions on odysseys, windows on accords) so again uggh. I guess hondas aren't what they used to be. thinking abou...
by grok87
Sun Jul 13, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who else hates choosing a car?
Replies: 75
Views: 6402

Re: isolation of risk in equities vs. Roth tax efficiency

Hi all. While reviewing my portfolio to rebalance, I've come across an interesting question. Up to now I've been going exclusively with Treasuries/TIPS for my bond allocation, as I tend to agree with Grok's tip of taking risk on the equity side here . However, my last two 401k plans with Fidelity d...
by grok87
Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: isolation of risk in equities vs. Roth tax efficiency
Replies: 6
Views: 900

Re: To Which Rate does Duration Refer?

Agree with the responses. One has to be a little careful with tips funds. Vanguard does it correctly in my view and shows the "real duration". This is consistent with the idea that duration is with respect to the bonds own yield or rate. I've seen other funds quote a nominal duration for t...
by grok87
Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Which Rate does Duration Refer?
Replies: 7
Views: 593

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

I remember back in the day (when most index investors held the S&P 500) when people were warning about adding small cap funds or using the new total stock market indices coming out. Too risky - why add "dangerous" small cap stocks? You saw the same thing when total international index...
by grok87
Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9059

Re: Who will be the Vanguard of the annuity world?

tiaa cref? That would be my answer. The problem is that it is like a credit union, you have to be a member (and I am not talking about the new modern anyone in the world is related credit union, but the old fashioned you really had something in common credit union). Is that true? they won't sell an...
by grok87
Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who will be the Vanguard of the annuity world?
Replies: 27
Views: 3646

Re: Who will be the Vanguard of the annuity world?

tiaa cref? That would be my answer. The problem is that it is like a credit union, you have to be a member (and I am not talking about the new modern anyone in the world is related credit union, but the old fashioned you really had something in common credit union). Is that true? they won't sell an...
by grok87
Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who will be the Vanguard of the annuity world?
Replies: 27
Views: 3646

Re: Who will be the Vanguard of the annuity world?

I've been following this forum for a couple years, and there seems to be increased interest in 'liability-managed portfolios', and especially 'inflation-protected annuities', all related to the decline in availability of defined benefit pension plans - on the other hand there is concern about the e...
by grok87
Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who will be the Vanguard of the annuity world?
Replies: 27
Views: 3646

Re: [Poll] If all active funds have ER= 0.05%, will you buy

Active funds in taxable accounts have lousy tax efficiency. Even in tax deferred, their high turnover will lead to high costs which are not reflected in the expense ratio. agree. estimates i have seen (Mr. Bogle?) are that for every 100% of turnover, the hidden expenses are 50 bps. So a fund with a...
by grok87
Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] If all active funds have ER= 0.05%, will you buy any?
Replies: 55
Views: 2663

Re: Stick with Vanguard or take Fidelity "special deal"?

I am 100 percent with Vanguard, but have been thinking of switching to Fidelity because of serious dissastisfaction with repeated incorrect data displayed on Vanguard's website concerning transactions and performance of my account (and I am a Flagship customer). When I have complained to Vanguard a...
by grok87
Thu Jul 03, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stick with Vanguard or take Fidelity "special deal"?
Replies: 50
Views: 3069

Re: Stick with Vanguard or take Fidelity "special deal"?

I am 100 percent with Vanguard, but have been thinking of switching to Fidelity because of serious dissastisfaction with repeated incorrect data displayed on Vanguard's website concerning transactions and performance of my account (and I am a Flagship customer). When I have complained to Vanguard a...
by grok87
Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stick with Vanguard or take Fidelity "special deal"?
Replies: 50
Views: 3069

Re: 401k funds choices + others

interesting that the mid cap index is cheaper than the s&p 500. typo?
by grok87
Mon Jun 30, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k funds choices + others
Replies: 10
Views: 718

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

I was perusing the thread, and when I stumbled upon Grok's picks I said to myself "he HAS to be winning this thing." Great picks Grok, especially with MU. You should set up a Motley Fool account and make some CAPS picks if you haven't already. For those that don't game the system by using...
by grok87
Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 153
Views: 12358

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

LadyGeek wrote:It's time for the 2nd quarter report.

I'm still in the middle of the pack.

Congrats to grok87!

Thanks LadyGeek!
by grok87
Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 153
Views: 12358

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

By the same logic US bonds also provide better risk adjusted returns than US stocks. Look at 2000-2013: TSM CAGR 4.22 STD 20.44 worst year -37% TBM CAGR 5.43 STD 5.42 worst year -2.26% We don't look at it that way since we have 100 years of history to look at where we can see various market cycles....
by grok87
Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9059

Re: What emering Market Funds do you like?

So could I turn it into a 4 fund portfolio and add the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VGTSX)? What do you mean by normal and is adding an emerging Market fund to my portfolio not normal? I would like to have an emerging market fund in my portfolio. why? as cyberbob points out emergi...
by grok87
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What emering Market Funds do you like?
Replies: 25
Views: 2030

the data

Here is the data on the (backtested) performance of the international bond index tracked by the vanguard fund compared with the total (us) bond index. I've also shown a 80/20 domestic/intl mix which is what vanguard uses in the target date funds etc. ANNUAL RETURN IN % YEAR..... TOT US BND INDEX.......
by grok87
Sun Jun 29, 2014 10:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9059

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

EDIT as grok87 points out there is another source of return. The yield curve is normaly upward sloping, so short term currency forwards cost less than the difference in yield between 2 10 year bonds (or should anyways). Thus there is a yield slope return there too because the cost of a ST FX hedge ...
by grok87
Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9059

Re: What emering Market Funds do you like?

veiex is it for me
by grok87
Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What emering Market Funds do you like?
Replies: 25
Views: 2030

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

I am on this camp as well. Give me a premium to TBM, or I am not going to bother. I've long been an advocate of a permanent allocation to foreign bonds and I've held 20 percent of our portfolio's bonds in foreign bonds for over a decade. However in my opinion if there's a sound argument against for...
by grok87
Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9059

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

But wouldn't you say the same in comparing those 3% PenFed CD's to domestic bonds, as well? I'm beginning to think that it's not just those foreign bonds that you're not so keen on these days, but in the current market, bonds in general. Am I wrong? Yes, I'd prefer the CD. Or maybe TIPS. But both a...
by grok87
Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9059

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

A couple of questions regarding Bernstein's comments that perhaps someone will help me with: 1) He suggests that foreign bonds, plus currency hedging, basically equals U. S. bonds. Why would the hedging turn foreign bonds into domestic bonds? I can see that it makes them similar to domestic bonds i...
by grok87
Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9059

Re: New retiree...considering a TIPS ladder

I retired May first of this year at age 62. I have a nice little pension of $1700/mo, and my wife (retired) and I have a portfolio of $1.5M. Our portfolio consists of roughly $1.2m in tax sheltered accounts with the remaining $300K in taxable funds and cash. Our AA is ~52% equity/48% fixed. We are ...
by grok87
Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New retiree...considering a TIPS ladder
Replies: 3
Views: 395

Re: Any experience with Vanguard Life Strategy?

Hello everyone. I'm a new member to this site and was hoping to get a few opinions on Vanguard's LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Fund. I just opened a Roth IRA and put $5000 into this fund. I'm not planning on contributing any more money to this IRA and letting it sit for 30 years (I'm 31 years ol...
by grok87
Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any experience with Vanguard Life Strategy?
Replies: 25
Views: 2414

Re: 401k funds choices

I just started reading up on investing and my plan is investing at Vanguard index funds. I'm currently 31. However, my 401k choices do not include any Vanguard funds. The choices are: Fixed income: Invesco Stable Value Trust Fund Intermediate Term Bond: PIMCO Total Return Fund Large Cap Blend: SSgA...
by grok87
Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k funds choices + others
Replies: 10
Views: 718

Re: Second pair of eyes on my 401k selections

agree that one should look at the 401k and ira as all part of one portfolio. drop the higher er actively managed international fund from american funds and the pimco bond fund in your 401k.
by grok87
Wed Jun 25, 2014 10:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Second pair of eyes on my 401k selections
Replies: 11
Views: 986

Re: Should Risk Portfolio in LMP, be 100% equity

Perhaps the best approach would be to calculate the duration of your expected retirement liabiltiies. And then gradually accumulate 30 year TIPs and Ibonds to match that liability. Then when you hit age 65 or so, you will be in a position to buy an immediate or deferred inflation-indexed annuity if ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 25, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should Risk Portfolio in LMP, be 100% equity
Replies: 20
Views: 1234

Re: Should Risk Portfolio in LMP, be 100% equity

I understand the basic concept of the liability matching portfolio of matching liabilities with certain income each year over your project life ( or whatever time frame one uses) I also understand that what one has left over after he/she has established the LMP, is recommend to be devoted to a Risk...
by grok87
Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should Risk Portfolio in LMP, be 100% equity
Replies: 20
Views: 1234

Re: Advice for wife's [lousy] 401K

In her 401k, "DREYFUS S&P 500 INDX (PEOPX) .51" is very acceptable. +1 In dollar terms it is a small amount each year so she could just contribute a few extra dollars per paycheck to make up for it. agree. if she can, she may want to ask her plan if it would consider a lower cost s&am...
by grok87
Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for wife's [lousy] 401K
Replies: 10
Views: 706

Re: [Morningstar article] the best fixed income investment

i like cds but i stick to penfed and perhaps some other credit unions.
always read the fine print. are you guaranteed the right to early withdrawal? many banks reserve the right to deny early withdrawals...
by grok87
Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Morningstar article] the best fixed income investment
Replies: 55
Views: 3762

Re: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?

Hey Grok regarding your enthusiasm for 30 year TIPS: Are you really Lazarus Long and not Michael Valentine Smith? It's a good question. No, I am not buying them because I expect to live to age 213! I'm planning on doing a post more on this issue later (at what age should i stop buying 30 year tips?...
by grok87
Fri Jun 20, 2014 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?
Replies: 59
Views: 4397

Re: If Harvard invested in Vanguard...

But it is not fair to complain about low returns on the endowment. Curielmc, since you are an alum, remember the circumstances under which she took over. Harvard had a high risk portfolio. Not only that, but they had invested the funds for daily expenses in the same risky and illiquid assets. They ...
by grok87
Fri Jun 20, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Harvard invested in Vanguard...
Replies: 50
Views: 5055

Re: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?

The Auction Results PDF File shows the 1.116% yield Grok reported. It also shows the inflation-adjusted cost to be 108.340341. This means that purchasers will be charged $1,088.62 for each $1,000 face value including $5.22 in accrued interest (1000 X 108.340% + 5.22). A couple of other links that m...
by grok87
Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?
Replies: 59
Views: 4397

Re: If Harvard invested in Vanguard...

" If Harvard had invested in two Vanguard ETFs, say 60% U.S. Stock (VTI) / 40% Bond (BND) portfolio (no adjustment for fees) returning around 10% over the last 5 years ending in 2013." :happy "Oh" The Majesty of Simplicity,,,,, :happy here's an analysis using the fiscal year per...
by grok87
Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Harvard invested in Vanguard...
Replies: 50
Views: 5055

Re: Fixed Income Barbell: ST Nominals / LT TIPS

Thanks LG for your response. Unfortunately, I don't believe any of the wiki articles referenced really directly address my notions about the following: It strikes me that FI allocations and the idea of matching a portion of one's retirement liabilities with a TIPS ladder are typically addressed as ...
by grok87
Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income Barbell: ST Nominals / LT TIPS
Replies: 6
Views: 819

Re: Fixed Income Barbell: ST Nominals / LT TIPS

Thanks LG for your response. Unfortunately, I don't believe any of the wiki articles referenced really directly address my notions about the following: It strikes me that FI allocations and the idea of matching a portion of one's retirement liabilities with a TIPS ladder are typically addressed as ...
by grok87
Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income Barbell: ST Nominals / LT TIPS
Replies: 6
Views: 819

Re: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?

grok87 wrote:real yield at 1.07% this morning. Looks more like 1.10% now for the auction.

actual result 1.116%
by grok87
Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?
Replies: 59
Views: 4397

Re: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?

real yield at 1.07% this morning. Looks more like 1.10% now for the auction.
by grok87
Thu Jun 19, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?
Replies: 59
Views: 4397

Re: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?

This thread's oddly quiet given that the auction's tomorrow. Maybe the recent real CMT rates (1.14% yesterday) have something to do with that, and then there is the current indicative yield of 1.108%. Ouch! Grok - I doubt we're going to make it up to 1.25%. Is there a rate below which you'll delay ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 18, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?
Replies: 59
Views: 4397

Re: Who are the BogleHeads.org heavyweights?

Beautiful, nedsaid! Exactly the sort of post I was looking for. Someone who has been around for a while with suggestions on their own personal favorites. Now I have a question -- where is YDNAL? The search page (http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=1626) says this u...
by grok87
Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Re: Who are the BogleHeads.org heavyweights?
Replies: 2
Views: 1079

Re: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?

This thread's oddly quiet given that the auction's tomorrow. Maybe the recent real CMT rates (1.14% yesterday) have something to do with that, and then there is the current indicative yield of 1.108%. Ouch! Grok - I doubt we're going to make it up to 1.25%. Is there a rate below which you'll delay ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?
Replies: 59
Views: 4397

Re: Changing our 401k plan

My company has a horrible 401k plan with John Hancock. Most funds have a ER of 1 to 1.5%, and the cheapest index funds have ER of about 0.9%. I ran into the CEO this am and I brought up the subject. He told me that the board is looking into switching 401k provider and they will be discussing this a...
by grok87
Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Changing our 401k plan
Replies: 4
Views: 341
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