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Re: Advice on Stock Options

Greetings, I tried looking in the Wiki but didn't find anything specific. I'm hoping to hear what kind of criteria folks put in place when dealing with company stock options. I get typical yearly grants that are good for 10 years and vest over 5. What are some good rules of thumb as to when to exer...
by grok87
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice on Stock Options
Replies: 8
Views: 1205

Re: Real Return/Risk Assumptions

When considering the risk needed to get real returns, it is a hostile investing environment. It is impossible to obtain real returns by limiting risk to only fixed income investments, unless you accept extreme term or credit risk. Grok had a topic on this back in 2011. Returns were meager even then...
by grok87
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return/Risk Assumptions
Replies: 5
Views: 643

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

Will future editions of The Bogleheads Guide to Investing still advise against holding long bonds, or have things changed? Obviously, long-term treasury bonds have done well this year, but gold also did well for ten years, quite recently, and of course performance alone is not a reason to hold an i...
by grok87
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3189

Re: Vox: Why your brain loves procrastination

great article- thanks for posting. "Roughly 5 percent of the population has such a problem with chronic procrastination that it seriously affects their lives." that seems like a low-ball estimate. personally i like 30 year tips. when i buy them i make a mental image of myself sending them ...
by grok87
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vox: Why your brain loves procrastination
Replies: 7
Views: 1167

Re: 401k questions

I am already investing into the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund via a tax deferred IRA. Yet I am thinking of stoping investing into it and going full time into my 401(k) via the funds below. In my 401(k) with the funds below I approximated the Three-Fund portfolio plus 5% in (TIPS) via a...
by grok87
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1204

Re: New job / Old 401k

Thanks for the feedback! Here is a little more info. The investment options in my new 401k are pretty limited (20 total, with most of those being target date funds). The investment options in my old 401k are better. Here is how each is currently invested: OLD 401k Allocation Investment 35% SPTN 500...
by grok87
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New job / Old 401k
Replies: 8
Views: 1079

Re: 401k questions

I am already investing into the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund via a tax deferred IRA. Yet I am thinking of stoping investing into it and going full time into my 401(k) via the funds below. In my 401(k) with the funds below I approximated the Three-Fund portfolio plus 5% in (TIPS) via a...
by grok87
Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1204

Re: New job / Old 401k

I recently started a new job and need to figure out what to do with the money that remains in my former employer's 401k. It seems my choices are 1) leave it; 2) move it to my new employer's 401k or 3) roll it into an IRA. It seems option 3 also has 2 choices in that I could do either a self or prof...
by grok87
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New job / Old 401k
Replies: 8
Views: 1079

Re: 401k questions

I am already investing into the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund via a tax deferred IRA. Yet I am thinking of stoping investing into it and going full time into my 401(k) via the funds below. In my 401(k) with the funds below I approximated the Three-Fund portfolio plus 5% in (TIPS) via a...
by grok87
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1204

Re: Pension buyout offer - Accept or reject

you can run the numbers. But usually, as your your intuition told you, the answer is that the buy-out offer is too low. Companies are allowed to value the payout using corporate bond rates now. But really, from your perspective, it is a risk free investment because of the government backing through ...
by grok87
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension buyout offer - Accept or reject
Replies: 46
Views: 5769

Re: Tips Ladder Now or Not So Fast........

At 54 I am on the verge of retiring this spring and contemplating the possibility of building a 30 years Tips ladder within the next year or so. The first 15 years would bridge the SS gap, the second 15 years would supplement SS. Total cost, guesstimating, around 60-65% of the portfolio. Pros: I re...
by grok87
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tips Ladder Now or Not So Fast........
Replies: 9
Views: 1193

Re: 529 Plan Help- best money market/savings account options

This post is from last year looking for similar information. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=127339 The Colorado Stable Value Plus plan claims for 2014 a guaranteed annual rate of return of 2.64% net of fees. https://www.collegeinvest.org/our-savings-plans/stable-value-plus ...
by grok87
Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Plan Help- best money market/savings account options
Replies: 14
Views: 926

very authentic looking BofA phishing email

Just to warn everyone, the phishing folks are stepping up their game. Just got the below message. It appears to come from a BofA email address, logos look very authentic, etc.. There are a few telltale things that give it away. But the phishing folks are definitely getting trickier... this link is a...
by grok87
Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: very authentic looking BofA phishing email
Replies: 1
Views: 526

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

well grok we'll disagree. Now what I do know is I know the people very well. Do you? Or are you just being skeptical? Which of course can be healthy attitude to take, but doesn't mean the answer is what you think. And it's possible I could be wrong, though like I said, I'd bet dollars to donuts on ...
by grok87
Sat Nov 08, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: CD rate change schedule

SO how crazy is it that their 1- 5 year rates are a rollercoaster (i.e. don't just increase with maturity): https://www.penfed.org/Certificates_Overview/#tabs-2 1-Year 1.000% 1.00% 2-Year 1.300% 1.31% 3-Year 1.550% 1.56% 4-Year 1.350% 1.36% 5-Year 1.750% 1.76% i think there is a little bit of logic ...
by grok87
Sat Nov 08, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CD rate change schedule
Replies: 10
Views: 2633

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

Like I said I am 99.99 percent certain that it is not in any way a misrepresentation or intent to mislead---based on my knowing the people well. It would be as if you told me Taylor or Mel was misleading someone. Pretty sure they will get back to me,and I'll post response Larry I'm not sure I compl...
by grok87
Sat Nov 08, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

Grok, On further review, I think you may be correct. It pivots off AQR's two disturbingly different (and misleading) "definitions" of expenses. Their definition of "Annual Fund Operating Expenses" clearly includes acquired fund fees and dividends on short sales. So 2.15% total. ...
by grok87
Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

The AQR online fund info shows 1.35% for the management fee, 0.57% for paying dividends, and a few other small amounts totaling the 2.11 or 2.14% that is often referenced. So at least until AQR removes the 1.5% cap, it would seem logical to call QSPIX = 0.93% if you're calling VMNFX 0.28%. (I used ...
by grok87
Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

Packer is correct. THe 1.60% includes the dividends VMNFX pays on the stocks it shorts. excluding that it is 0.25% Ah, got it. So to keep things apples:apples, shouldn't we do the same math w/ the 0.57% that QSPIX spends on stock short dividends? maybe? I thought 1.50% was purely the management fee?
by grok87
Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: "Smart" Beta - general consensus?

PRF seemed the most interesting to me. Any thoughts? What about equal weighted ETFs? Vanguard has a piece out on that. It basically says that they are not the best. basically they offer a tilt to smaller cap stocks compared to the total stock market index. but it is an expensive inefficient tilt be...
by grok87
Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart" Beta - general consensus?
Replies: 17
Views: 1481

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

There is only a 60bp difference in performance but a 125bp difference in fees. Packer, Presuming you are contrasting QSPIX and VMNFX, how do you arrive at a 125bps difference in fees? I thought VMNFX was 1.60% ER and QSPIX is 1.50% ER (at least with AQR's current ER cap). Am I missing something? Pa...
by grok87
Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

Given that, there is no way that the fund drew down more than a general stock fund during the financial crisis. i'd be more cautious. the fund has substantial exposure to "momentum style" risk. Momentum got slaughtered in the first quarter or so of 2009. Plus the fund is currently reasona...
by grok87
Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded

dpc wrote:I think if you had re-scheduled the flight, they would have honored the upgrade, if possible.

you would think so right? Sadly no. They tell me the money i paid is forfeited, gone forever...
by grok87
Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: AA canceled flight: premium seat fee not refunded

Did you pay via Credit Card? If so, you didn't receive the product you paid for. You should contest the charge with your CC company. But the traveler agreed to the terms of sale when the premum seat was purchased, which says this is not refundable. Man up and don't drag the credit card company into...
by grok87
Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded

bethny wrote:Jet Blue refunds fees for premium seats when you cancel.

thanks.
i often have a choice between flying american and jetblue.
one more reason to fly jet blue!
cheers,
by grok87
Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: AA canceled flight: premium seat fee not refunded

Grok, That's why the missus and I stopped flying American to DFW where we have grandchildren. The customer service has simply fallen off as repeated customer surveys show. We regret it. We enjoyed our Advantage perks in the past. Lev Thanks Lev. Yes their policy in this case simply seems hard to un...
by grok87
Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: AA canceled flight: premium seat fee not refunded

AA didn't cancel the flight - grok did. That's why there was no accommodation and no refund of the premium seat fee - had it been IRROPS with AA they would have moved him to another flight and presumably either kept him in a premium seat or refunded the fee. I'm not sure of AA's policy on this. You...
by grok87
Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: AA canceled flight: premium seat fee not refunded

Here's a tip: Don't ever pay for a premium seat, but still sit in a premium seat without paying. Here's how I do it: I buy my ticket for cheap seat, then the day before the flight, I look online and change my seat assignment to a premium seat at no charge. Presumably, AA put you on another flight w...
by grok87
Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: AA canceled flight: premium seat fee not refunded

OP, Did they charge a fee on your cancellation? Along with the fee, they also did not refund the premium fee. From airline perspective, since you cancelled your ticket and the premium seat that they were able to sell you, they now need to convince someone else to pay a premium for that seat and hen...
by grok87
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: AA canceled flight: premium seat fee not refunded

So I recently had to cancel an American Airlines flight. I had been stupid enough to pay up for a premium seat. Apparently when you cancel a flight, they just make you forfeit that premium seat fee- i.e. you can't carry it over to the flight you rebook. Pretty nice scam on American Airlines part hu...
by grok87
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded

So I recently had to cancel an American Airlines flight. I had been stupid enough to pay up for a premium seat. Apparently when you cancel a flight, they just make you forfeit that premium seat fee- i.e. you can't carry it over to the flight you rebook. Pretty nice scam on American Airlines part huh...
by grok87
Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: canceled flight on AA: premium seat fee not refunded
Replies: 30
Views: 2350

Re: What funds are negatively correlated with stocks?

Long-term U.S. treasuries do the job. Do yourself a favor and plot a chart of TLT vs VTI and see the power of negative correlation. This is David Swensen's argument and I have a lot of sympathy for it. However it is worth pointing out that this would not have worked in the bear market of the 70s/ea...
by grok87
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What funds are negatively correlated with stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 3195

Re: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund

My 401K just added a new fixed income option. It looks pretty interesting and I am in the process of doing some internet research. I was wondering what some of you know about it or think about this fund. It is The BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund. Thanks in advance, Steve A good rule o...
by grok87
Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1568

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

auction yield was 0.985%. actually relatively close to the 1% i was hoping for this morning.
by grok87
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Auction is today. last chance to put your orders in this morning.
current secondary market yield is 0.944%.
I'm hoping we get close to 1% at auction (probably a stretch).
cheers
by grok87
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Grok, I must have missed this post originally. Just read it now and have a few comments: 1. The past 40 years were unusual in that interest rates declined substantially. Corporate bonds often have a call provision that Treasury bonds do not, so when rates decline, the borrower can redeem the bond a...
by grok87
Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 7323

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Another approach to the same result is to buy a ten and roll it three times or some combination of the same. That way you don't lock in the low 1% yield for thirty years. Doesn't this violate the no-arbitrage condition of market equilibrium? There's no reason to believe that bond term premia (in al...
by grok87
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Another approach to the same result is to buy a ten and roll it three times or some combination of the same. That way you don't lock in the low 1% yield for thirty years. Doesn't this violate the no-arbitrage condition of market equilibrium? Are you assume the market is in disequilibrium? It seems ...
by grok87
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

QSPIX down 2.1% today. I thought it was supposed to have about half the volatility of equities. Wonder what gives? yep. YTD it is up 1.78%. vs the vanguard market neutral fund is up 2.36%. this is rather surprising given that the vanguard fund just does long/short equities whereas the aqr fund is s...
by grok87
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 71
Views: 6769

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Just placed my order. Here is a guide to help decide how much each bond will likely cost at auction: 1) Bloomberg shows the current price on the secondary at 113 + 8/32 = 113.25 2) The inflation factor is 1.02062 3) The accrued interest per bond is 2.936 per $1,000 of face or 0.2936 per $100 of face...
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

#Cruncher wrote:The auction has been officially announced...

thanks for the useful info #Cruncher.
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

The extreme case is the 4% rule or, more generally, the X% rule in which there are no adjustments. Two things are self evident and shouldn’t require much discussion. What you spend should depend upon (1) how much you’ve got and (2) how long you think you might live, or the range of possible lengths...
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4733

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

1) ibonds are cheap at 0% real rate, short term tips rates are negative 2) 5 year penfed cds are cheap @2.12% yield vs. 5 year treasury @1.56% 3) commodities have gotten cheapish. silver is at a 4 year low. Agreed, and I might add: 4) "20 year" ee bonds are cheap at 3.53% nominal, 20-yr t...
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5765

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Japanese stocks
by grok87
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5765

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

At the end of the day, what you're after is a guaranteed income flow. It's true that at the end of a 20-year TIPS ladder, the money is gone. However, I have no intention of putting all of my money in a TIPS and I will extend the "floor" with either excess earnings or buy a SPIA. ADr, I th...
by grok87
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

secondary market yield now is 0.888%

at this point we'll be lucky to get 0.90% yield at auction.

I am still planning on buying at these levels...
by grok87
Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: Portfolio Review Question

Questions: 1. I *may* purchase a $600k house in 2-5 years (from an expensive part of the country). I’ve been saying this for at least ten years now, though.) Thus, I’m keeping about $180k out of the market. Two questions related to this: $180k Emergency Fund/House Deposit Money a) Given that I’m no...
by grok87
Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Question
Replies: 4
Views: 587

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

This came from our discussion of CALPERs new investment strategy in real estate (direct investment, not funds, blue chip assets). I was questioning whether this was all a bit 'late to the party'. To continue I would say this is all an example of what is confronting all multi asset investors. There ...
by grok87
Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5765

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

so i've had a look at the data. here is the source i used- see page 10 in particular. There are lot of unanswered questions with the past real return data . First, Larry often doesn't give the source for his data when he's writing short articles or Boglehead posts so we don't know the basis for his...
by grok87
Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

The long term real growth rate of the U.S. economy has been about 3 percent. Thus we might expect that the real return on bonds should not be much above that. Grok, what is exactly the point? Do you think that real rates will be much lower than the the long term economy's growth rate or that the th...
by grok87
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6817
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