Search found 6594 matches

by grok87
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

markettimer i think you are relatively young in your career. so here is your killer app- figure out a way to package up a 30 year zero zero coupon tips bond with a 30 year call option on the S&P 500 and go retail! This isn't my specialty, but I wonder who would take the short side of the 30-yea...
by grok87
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

ideally a risk averse investor with a limited time horizon wants a stock index or stock portfolio with a floor. so say stock index with a long term put option. mathematically this is equivalent through put call parity to a zero coupon long term bond plus a long term call option. Yeah, I agree with ...
by grok87
Sun Jul 26, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roll Your Own Hedge Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1282

Re: Roll Your Own Hedge Fund?

Vanguard has their "Market Neutral" fund as a lower cost hedge fund option. I just don't see the benefit of it though, there have been times where it looks like an interesting alternative, but when a real crisis hit, the touted benefits of such a strategy didn't hold up. PV Link before au...
by grok87
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

When I was trading options on an individual stock (hedging employee stock options), I usually placed my order midway between bid and ask, and it usually was quickly filled. I used Interactive Brokers, as the commissions were much lower than say Vanguard or Fidelity. Kevin thanks. I've been doing so...
by grok87
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

Has Zvi Bodie published anything where he argues why TIPS + LEAPS is superior to TIPS + equities? I read some of the stuff linked to in the earlier thread, and agree with essentially everything he has written. However, I have not seen him justify the why of this strategy. I agree with the basic lia...
by grok87
Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

Has Zvi Bodie published anything where he argues why TIPS + LEAPS is superior to TIPS + equities? I read some of the stuff linked to in the earlier thread, and agree with essentially everything he has written. However, I have not seen him justify the why of this strategy. I agree with the basic lia...
by grok87
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

CBOE index options LEAPS are trading out to Dec 14 2017. ... currently the highest strike available that has traded is: SPX Dec14'17 3000 Call Bid 3.00 Ask 3.30 Last 3.20 ... so it looks like you can go out 2.5 years and you are looking at ~10% spread. At the money is trading ~5% spread Dec'17. So ...
by grok87
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

... If it does not go down, then I am not out anything. ... If the stock goes up, my order may execute, if not then no loss. Actually, both of these should be counted as opportunity losses that completely balance out the good deal you might have gotten on the other side of the "if". It's ...
by grok87
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

grok, Are you sure you are trading the correct product ? Bodie actually mentions at-the-money 3 year LEAPs or long term equity index options (on for example the S&P 500) as one alternative to consider. http://www.cboe.com/spxms/options/leaps/leapsspecifications.aspx LEAPS on the SPX or S&P5...
by grok87
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

Caduceus wrote:There's no harm setting a conservative limit price and then re-setting it higher later on. My own experience is that it is all over the place when there are wide bid-ask spreads, especially if volume is thin. Just out of curiosity, what kind of LEAPs are you getting?

2.5-3 year LEAPs on SPY.
by grok87
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Re: Help buying LEAPs

On the rare occasions that I buy LEAPs, I always do so with a limit order that is significantly less than current bid price. If the stock goes down, then my order may fill. If it does not go down, then I am not out anything. I am more inclined to sell covered LEAPs, but again I only do so with a li...
by grok87
Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 25
Views: 1934

Help buying LEAPs

So I've decided to buy some out of the money LEAPs as part of Zvi Bodie's TIPs Leaps strategy. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=71927 But I could use some help on the execution. The bid/ask spreads are typically very wide. like 10%, yikes. what is the best way to place orders here? w...
by grok87
Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So many anomalies -- so little time: buy a nomaly basket
Replies: 22
Views: 1792

Re: So many anomalies -- so little time: buy a nomaly basket

I study long-short portfolio strategies formed on seven different stock characteristics representing various measures of past returns, value, and size. Each individual characteristic results in a profitable portfolio strategy, but these single-characteristic strategies are all dominated by a divers...
by grok87
Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So many anomalies -- so little time: buy a nomaly basket
Replies: 22
Views: 1792

Re: So many anomalies -- so little time: buy a nomaly basket

rca1824 wrote:What would such a portfolio look like, in practical terms, comprised of low-cost Vanguard funds?

Is this an argument for the slice-and-dice small/value tilted portfolio?

The closest thing vanguard would have in this regard is the market neutral fund.
by grok87
Sun Jul 12, 2015 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does it *really* matter when I buy bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 998

Re: Does it *really* matter when I buy bonds?

Hi all, Consider bond prices go down when interest rates go up, which seems to be the general consensus within the next 12 months, does it make sense for someone to buy bonds now? I'm new to bond buying, but it seems irrational to buy something knowing in advance that the asset will be cheaper late...
by grok87
Sat Jul 11, 2015 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Commuting vs. weekday widowing
Replies: 27
Views: 2466

Re: Commuting vs. weekday widowing

I forgot to mention that when you have long commutes, in my experience your quality of workplace matters more. When I did the long train commute for a job I loved in a supportive environment, I didn't mind it one bit. I looked forward to going to work and didn't feel bitter coming home. But for a j...
by grok87
Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9727

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

It's borderline but i think we can call it a RBD ("really bad day") for european stocks. The euro-stoxx index was down 4.21%
by grok87
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9727

dow futures down 200+ points

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures
SHould be an interesting open monday morning...
treasury yields down a bunch as well
by grok87
Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

4nursebee wrote:The shorts really ought to "freeze" things right now!

Congratulations! you're really tearing the cover off the ball right now!
by grok87
Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

petercooperjr wrote:Surprised I'm the first to post the results:

Yield of 1.142%. Not spectacular by any means, but better rates than we've had at auction for a while at least.

Treasury Results PDF

yep, not a bad outcome.
by grok87
Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

Surprised I'm the first to post the results: Yield of 1.142%. Not spectacular by any means, but better rates than we've had at auction for a while at least. Treasury Results PDF Yes, but too bad the auction wasn't held a week ago Wednesday when the RCMT rate rose to 1.25%; it had dipped a fair bit ...
by grok87
Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

jheez wrote:UK investors would certainly love a real rate on an inflation linked gilt/bond this high. :) No guarantees real rates will ever rise

agree
by grok87
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

Check me on this. If I'm correct, the current annual inflation rate (based on monthly CPI-U data) as of April 2005 is actually negative, with a minus sign, -0.20%. It has been negative every month this year (we call that deflation don't we?) . I've decided to keep my safe money in TIAA Traditional,...
by grok87
Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

similar issue for me
my bws stock has changed ticker to cal.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3230136 ... sive-stock

Norbert- can you please fix?
thanks
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

Grok, Alas, my days of buying 30-year TIPS are over. I have my ladder nearly completed that takes me from 65-85 and change, but I've decided to do rolling 10-year TIPS after that, if I'm healthy enough to justify it. I-bonds are fine, as questioned above, but you're so restricted by quantity that t...
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

grok - I know there are limitations on purchasing I-Bonds but my preference would be to load up on these before buying TIPS. Of course you can only do that outside your tax-deferred accounts, but they are kind of "roth-like" in that you are investing after-tax funds and will only pay tax ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

grok, your comments in this thread, and comments I vaguely recall from previous ones, indicate that you're constructing a ladder of 30-year TIPS, and mean to keep doing so, even if current rates are only attractive in relative terms, rather than in absolute terms compared to TIPS yields in years pa...
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

30 year tips real yield now at 1.14% on the secondary (blowing right past my 1.125%)

Now i'm hoping for 1.25% at auction...
by grok87
Tue Jun 02, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

So the next thrice-yearly 30 year tips auction will be announced next Thursday June 11th. The actual auction date is Thursday June 18th. Current secondary market yield is 1.063%. The auction often tails so I'm hoping for a 1.125% yield. At these levels I'll be making a substantial purchase. Anyone ...
by grok87
Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4902

30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

So the next thrice-yearly 30 year tips auction will be announced next Thursday June 11th. The actual auction date is Thursday June 18th. Current secondary market [real] yield is 1.063%. The auction often tails so I'm hoping for a 1.125% [real] yield. At these levels I'll be making a substantial purc...
by grok87
Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Risk Parity Is Even Better Than We Thought
Replies: 18
Views: 1511

Re: AQR/Asness - Risk Parity Is Even Better Than We Thought

Another term for the poor man's "risk parity" portfolio is "more bonds, less stocks." I found out a long time ago that the optimal point on the risk-adjusted return continuum is about 25% - 30% stocks and the remainder in intermediate bonds. Not the biggest secret in the investi...
by grok87
Tue May 19, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Didn't grok win last year? And up 23%+ already for 2015? Man, he's good. I think I will liquidate my index funds and give him all my money. Thanks protagonist, that's very kind. No i came in second last year, if memory serves, and I'm in 5th place this year. I'm thinking about Making a full time ca...
by grok87
Fri May 15, 2015 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

hmmm...pretty close race in 2-4th place. I predict I'll end up 2nd, same as last year...
by grok87
Sun May 10, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recently relocated family seeking advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1655

Re: Recently relocated family seeking advice

good point on the property taxes- those may or may not be tax deductible on your federal return. i believe they typically are deductible under regular income tax but not under AMT. i guess the idea of renting a condo as your primary residence and then buying a house to rent out at the same time stri...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 2349

Re: When to junk a car?

It's very simple. Add up the value of the car as-is with the cost of repair. If that number is smaller than the cost of a comparable condition vehicle without issues, then you repair it. For example, you estimate your G35 is $4500 and the cost of repair is $1900. Then I would repair it if a same ye...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 2349

Re: When to junk a car?

I was just reading somewhere that if you take good care of your car you should reasonably expect to get it to 200,000 miles. That author must not know anything about German cars. I'm struggling with these old car issues as well. I have a 14 year old Honda Odyssey with low mileage (i take the train ...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recently relocated family seeking advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1655

Re: Recently relocated family seeking advice

We are new to this forum and would like to thank you all in advance for your insights. We are a 51 year couple with a pre-teen kid recently relocated to the SF Bay Area. We earn in the mid $100k's, rent a home and live a modest lifestyle. Currently we have about $800k (5% roth, 35% 401k, 25% broker...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 2349

Re: When to junk a car?

I was just reading somewhere that if you take good care of your car you should reasonably expect to get it to 200,000 miles. That author must not know anything about German cars. I'm struggling with these old car issues as well. I have a 14 year old Honda Odyssey with low mileage (i take the train ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 68
Views: 12252

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

SO [ extract from this post by grok87 ] does not seem to paint a pretty picture for International Bonds Index - like Vanguard VTIBX Grok was referring to unhedged inflation-linked international bonds. Therefore his comments don't really apply to Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund (VTIBX) ...
by grok87
Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

It's the end of the first quarter. I'm running at a slight loss near the middle of the pack: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List Here's the standings: ⋅ Baysian Stochastic Fund from Fortuitous Financial (Randolph) ⋅ Pocket Liner (Cayman) ⋅ Consternatio Part...
by grok87
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

I'm curious how well participants real portfolios mirror the selections in the contest? The biotech slide has hurt my virtual ego at number one. 99% of my portfolio is in indexed and/or vanguard funds. i only have a couple of individual stock positions for "fun"-they've worked out ok but ...
by grok87
Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

yay i'm in 3rd place!
congratulations 4nursebee
by grok87
Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 comma club (my way)!!
Replies: 49
Views: 8712

Re: 2 comma club (my way)!!

Hi, As usual, thanks to all who have helped me in so many ways that I cannot count or list! No, okay then...........If I must list, then some which come to my mind are; Nisi, livesoft, Emergdoc, retiredjg, Taylor,cruncher, ladyGeek,grok87,VictoriaF, grabiner,Frugalinvestor,gkaplan, bertilak, abus 3...
by grok87
Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?
Replies: 25
Views: 2772

Re: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?

Re the 30 year TIPs, I think the main point is that none of us know how long we are going to live. I think it is prudent to plan to live to 95 or so. It's really an insurance approach idea. You want insurance against the risk of outliving your money, or having your money eaten away by massive inflat...
by grok87
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 101
Views: 9944

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

Those of you who generally subscribe to Bogle-osophy but also have one or more equity positions that you intend to hold onto "forever": which ones are they? I have two: BRK(b) and AAPL. in the late 60s, early 70s there was a similar idea, called "one-decision" stocks. the idea w...
by grok87
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 101
Views: 9944

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

steve roy wrote:Mine is an ETF of Vanguard's Total Stock Market.

I swore off individual stocks during the period '08-'09, for reasons you can probably conjure up in your head without prompting from me.

+1
by grok87
Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3895

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

auction yield was 0.842%, not bad!
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 178
Views: 23893

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

VictoriaF wrote:
grok87 wrote:4th place, within striking distance of 3rd.
http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
i'll take it!
:)


Good job! I am just below the mean but still in the positive territory.

Victoria

good job!
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3895

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Rational thinking suggests that when interest rates are below historical norms they are more likely to go up than down and visa versa. No guarantee of course. But locking in a historically very low rate for 30 years when you have good alternatives to establish you LMP later just doesn't seem like a...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3895

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Just had a look at the ssa life tables. Based on that, for a 65 year old man the 95th percentlie of age at death is 96 years old. For a 65 year old woman the 95th percentile of age at death is 99 years. So if you want to be 95. Percent certain of not outliving your tips, a man would stop buying tip...

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