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Re: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund

My 401K just added a new fixed income option. It looks pretty interesting and I am in the process of doing some internet research. I was wondering what some of you know about it or think about this fund. It is The BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund. Thanks in advance, Steve A good rule o...
by grok87
Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund
Replies: 12
Views: 690

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

auction yield was 0.985%. actually relatively close to the 1% i was hoping for this morning.
by grok87
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Auction is today. last chance to put your orders in this morning.
current secondary market yield is 0.944%.
I'm hoping we get close to 1% at auction (probably a stretch).
cheers
by grok87
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Grok, I must have missed this post originally. Just read it now and have a few comments: 1. The past 40 years were unusual in that interest rates declined substantially. Corporate bonds often have a call provision that Treasury bonds do not, so when rates decline, the borrower can redeem the bond a...
by grok87
Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 7107

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Another approach to the same result is to buy a ten and roll it three times or some combination of the same. That way you don't lock in the low 1% yield for thirty years. Doesn't this violate the no-arbitrage condition of market equilibrium? There's no reason to believe that bond term premia (in al...
by grok87
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Another approach to the same result is to buy a ten and roll it three times or some combination of the same. That way you don't lock in the low 1% yield for thirty years. Doesn't this violate the no-arbitrage condition of market equilibrium? Are you assume the market is in disequilibrium? It seems ...
by grok87
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

QSPIX down 2.1% today. I thought it was supposed to have about half the volatility of equities. Wonder what gives? yep. YTD it is up 1.78%. vs the vanguard market neutral fund is up 2.36%. this is rather surprising given that the vanguard fund just does long/short equities whereas the aqr fund is s...
by grok87
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 40
Views: 2264

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Just placed my order. Here is a guide to help decide how much each bond will likely cost at auction: 1) Bloomberg shows the current price on the secondary at 113 + 8/32 = 113.25 2) The inflation factor is 1.02062 3) The accrued interest per bond is 2.936 per $1,000 of face or 0.2936 per $100 of face...
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

#Cruncher wrote:The auction has been officially announced...

thanks for the useful info #Cruncher.
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

The extreme case is the 4% rule or, more generally, the X% rule in which there are no adjustments. Two things are self evident and shouldn’t require much discussion. What you spend should depend upon (1) how much you’ve got and (2) how long you think you might live, or the range of possible lengths...
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4627

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

1) ibonds are cheap at 0% real rate, short term tips rates are negative 2) 5 year penfed cds are cheap @2.12% yield vs. 5 year treasury @1.56% 3) commodities have gotten cheapish. silver is at a 4 year low. Agreed, and I might add: 4) "20 year" ee bonds are cheap at 3.53% nominal, 20-yr t...
by grok87
Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5502

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Japanese stocks
by grok87
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5502

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

At the end of the day, what you're after is a guaranteed income flow. It's true that at the end of a 20-year TIPS ladder, the money is gone. However, I have no intention of putting all of my money in a TIPS and I will extend the "floor" with either excess earnings or buy a SPIA. ADr, I th...
by grok87
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

secondary market yield now is 0.888%

at this point we'll be lucky to get 0.90% yield at auction.

I am still planning on buying at these levels...
by grok87
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: Portfolio Review Question

Questions: 1. I *may* purchase a $600k house in 2-5 years (from an expensive part of the country). I’ve been saying this for at least ten years now, though.) Thus, I’m keeping about $180k out of the market. Two questions related to this: $180k Emergency Fund/House Deposit Money a) Given that I’m no...
by grok87
Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Question
Replies: 4
Views: 468

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

This came from our discussion of CALPERs new investment strategy in real estate (direct investment, not funds, blue chip assets). I was questioning whether this was all a bit 'late to the party'. To continue I would say this is all an example of what is confronting all multi asset investors. There ...
by grok87
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5502

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

so i've had a look at the data. here is the source i used- see page 10 in particular. There are lot of unanswered questions with the past real return data . First, Larry often doesn't give the source for his data when he's writing short articles or Boglehead posts so we don't know the basis for his...
by grok87
Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

The long term real growth rate of the U.S. economy has been about 3 percent. Thus we might expect that the real return on bonds should not be much above that. Grok, what is exactly the point? Do you think that real rates will be much lower than the the long term economy's growth rate or that the th...
by grok87
Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Hello Bogleheads, the next 30 year tips auction (actually a re-opening) will be announced in 10 days. At that time one can place orders if one wishes. The actual auction day is 10/23. The current real yield on the 30 year TIP is 1.04%. Often you get a bit more yield at auction, so I'm hoping we get...
by grok87
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

I plan to take SS at age 70 and hope to annuitize a fair amount during my 70's into (mostly) inflation-adjust annuities -- probably from the proceeds of TIPs. For a male at age 72, an inflation-adjusted life annuity is currently paying out around 6.0%. sounds like a good plan to me. watch those sta...
by grok87
Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

well i think a 4% safe withdrawal rate could work with an all tips portfolio at a 1% real rate. We are not going to live forever, so we can dip into principal (judiciously). so say you have a 30 year tips ladder. you start living off it at say age 67 and have 30 year retirement horizon- i.e. till a...
by grok87
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

"4) Safe withdrawal rates are often quoted at 4% adjusted for inflation. This is based on maybe an 8% equity return and a 5% FI return (nominal). I would have to have a huge portfolio if I would get the same retirement income from a 1% (3% nominal) investment." 4 percent wihdrawel rates a...
by grok87
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

The long term real growth rate of the U.S. economy has been about 3 percent. Thus we might expect that the real return on bonds should not be much above that. Grok, what is exactly the point? Do you think that real rates will be much lower than the the long term economy's growth rate or that the th...
by grok87
Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

One further comment: Given the current inflation situation, the fact that the Fed has done a pretty good job controlling it, it seems to me that at least for the conceivable time, investing in nominal bonds via an intermediate term bond fund maybe more profitable. I recall that Swedroe recently bou...
by grok87
Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

But Swedroe is putting a plus number on the growth rate not a minus one. That would put the real yield above 2.2%. I agree that Swedroe's number is the growth rate. I've read Larry's thoughts on TIPs. Again I have a lot of respect for Larry and agree with him 90%+ of the time. But I think his appro...
by grok87
Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

I'm not a big bond purchaser and I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling from 1.1 or even 1.5 percent real rates. How does one get comfortable holding long term Tips with such low rates of return and especially in a taxable account where you are paying taxes on phantom interest? Can someone explain th...
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Leif wrote:Not too excited...

me neither. not loading up. just dollar cost averaging in.
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Swedroe in his "The Only Guide to a Winning Bond Strategy", Appendix B (page 229), recommends 0% TIPS if real yield on 10 year TIPs is under 1.75%. Is that no longer valid? I'm a big fan of Larry's. I guess his TIPs strategy is one area we disagree. Part of it is that i think real GDP gro...
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

jdb wrote:
Browser wrote:Then I can work at McDonald's from age 65-75. Seems pretty simple -- why not do that?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-0 ... -7-98.html
Sounds like a plan. :happy

+1
:)
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Let's say I plan to retire in 20 years at age 65, and let's say I want to "prefund" some of my inflation-adjusted living costs starting at age 75 when I'm likely to not want to work at McDonald's any longer. Given these assumptions, it might be a good idea to start buying 30-year TIPs thi...
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Another approach to the same result is to buy a ten and roll it three times or some combination of the same. That way you don't lock in the low 1% yield for thirty years. Ten years from now you might wish you'd locked in 1.1% real. I am going to follow Doc suggestion and buy more 10 year at the Jan...
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Another approach to the same result is to buy a ten and roll it three times or some combination of the same. That way you don't lock in the low 1% yield for thirty years. Ten years from now you might wish you'd locked in 1.1% real. exactly. intl 10 year tips yields are often lower right now. see th...
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

richard wrote:In February you were hoping for 1.5%. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=132720&newpost=1960337 Sigh.

i really wish i had bought my full yearly allocation then like jon-nyc. but hindsight is 20/20 of course
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Another approach to the same result is to buy a ten and roll it three times or some combination of the same. That way you don't lock in the low 1% yield for thirty years. Given grok87's goals, the 30-year TIPS reduces uncertainty because he knows exactly how many inflation-adjusted dollars he will ...
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

I will be participating for my usual dollar-cost averaging in amount. My rationale in buying is that i expect to have bills to pay in retirement 30 years from now that i want to pre-fund. LMP is what they call this approach i guess (liability matching portfolio). Another approach to the same result...
by grok87
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

Hello Bogleheads, the next 30 year tips auction (actually a re-opening) will be announced in 10 days. At that time one can place orders if one wishes. The actual auction day is 10/23. The current real yield on the 30 year TIP is 1.04%. Often you get a bit more yield at auction, so I'm hoping we get ...
by grok87
Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 93
Views: 6478

Re: Help with investing my younger brothers survivor benefit

Hello, I was wondering what the best option would be to invest my brothers social security survivor benefits. I am currently the payee and I try to manage his benefits the best i can. I have saved around 10 thousands dollars so far but ive only kept the money in a savings account. Im currently in m...
by grok87
Sun Oct 05, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with investing my younger brothers survivor benefits.
Replies: 13
Views: 1098

Re: 1,000th post

When should someone retire their newb status? Is it after x number of posts and/or x number of years in the market? Thanks to the community here, I made my first investment with Vanguard in November of 2012 - almost two years ago. Haven't sold any shares since. Congratulations on your 1000th post a...
by grok87
Fri Oct 03, 2014 7:22 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: 1,000th post
Replies: 10
Views: 806

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

My crystal ball is cloudy for what direction 30 year tips yields will be moving (up or down who knows?) With the current rate of ~1 and a historical rate of arguably ~3 it is obvious that the probability is that the rates will move up. The question is not whether they are more likely to move up tha...
by grok87
Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 7176

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

30 year tips auction coming up next month... Since the last 30-Year TIPS Auction on 6/19/2014, the TIPS yield curve has gotten less steep, as shown below. (From Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates 2014 .) DATE 5 YR 7 YR 10 YR 20 YR 30 YR -------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- 06/19/14 -0.31 0.23 0...
by grok87
Mon Sep 22, 2014 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 7176

Re: Please Help with 401K Investment Options

agree that it is best to go with the spartan funds. from your screen shot it looks like you are in the freedom funds. i would get out of these quickly. they are an unsavory package of actively managed funds that fidelity can't get anyone to invest in directly. http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/...
by grok87
Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help with 401K Investment Options
Replies: 5
Views: 407

Re: Investment portfolio. Can you have a look?

I am a newbie in investment and have invested all my current savings recently as per the division below. What do you think on my current portfolio? I know for some, it looks a bit conservative but does it look balanced? I am 29 years old with a wife dependent on me and intend to invest approximatel...
by grok87
Sun Sep 21, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment portfolio. Can you have a look?
Replies: 3
Views: 477

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

30 year tips auction coming up next month...
by grok87
Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 45
Views: 7176

Re: High ER 401K funds help !

the midcap fund i guess
by grok87
Sun Sep 07, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High ER 401K funds help !
Replies: 7
Views: 678

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

Grok: Looking forward to your extended post on addressing stagflation. Because you've turned away from size and value factors, I assume that you're not using momentum, low volatility, etc. either. In the interim, would you mind sharing how you constructed your liability-matching "floor" o...
by grok87
Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 47
Views: 5807

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

Grok, I like the way you're thinking here. Are you (or anyone else) holding this in taxable? I notice that for 5 years or so the fund has been squeaky clean re distributions. Would it be remiss to count on more of that going forward? Anyone have a custodian willing to waive the 250K minimum? Thanks...
by grok87
Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 47
Views: 5807

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?T

Thanks Grok87, I was going to comment about leverage being another risk factor in Market Neutral funds. I read articles on this and didn't see any references to leverage. I thought I remembered that some of these funds used leverage but I couldn't confirm it and withheld comment. In theory, market ...
by grok87
Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 47
Views: 5807

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

One would hope that extraordinary market events would not make mincemeat out of whatever models the fund managers are using. The relationships in performance between different investments change over time. So I can see how Market Neutral Funds could give you some downside protection but you also ha...
by grok87
Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 47
Views: 5807

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

Just a bump from a previous thread. Vanguard has brought the management of this fund in-house beginning in 2011 and turned it around pretty well. The performance has done very well and the expense ratio is only 25bp. So you are getting in fact a real hedge fund (volatility in the 3 - 4% range) for ...
by grok87
Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 47
Views: 5807

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

Grok87, I have read many of your posts and respect your opinions. Why are you in the Vanguard Market Neutral Fund? Just curious. Thanks nedsaid. First let me say that I don't think the fund is for everyone. And that the fund is only a small part of my asset allocation. While I do not generally beli...
by grok87
Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 47
Views: 5807
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