Search found 6578 matches

by grok87
Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9031

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

It's borderline but i think we can call it a RBD ("really bad day") for european stocks. The euro-stoxx index was down 4.21%
by grok87
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9031

dow futures down 200+ points

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures
SHould be an interesting open monday morning...
treasury yields down a bunch as well
by grok87
Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

4nursebee wrote:The shorts really ought to "freeze" things right now!

Congratulations! you're really tearing the cover off the ball right now!
by grok87
Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

petercooperjr wrote:Surprised I'm the first to post the results:

Yield of 1.142%. Not spectacular by any means, but better rates than we've had at auction for a while at least.

Treasury Results PDF

yep, not a bad outcome.
by grok87
Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

Surprised I'm the first to post the results: Yield of 1.142%. Not spectacular by any means, but better rates than we've had at auction for a while at least. Treasury Results PDF Yes, but too bad the auction wasn't held a week ago Wednesday when the RCMT rate rose to 1.25%; it had dipped a fair bit ...
by grok87
Tue Jun 16, 2015 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

jheez wrote:UK investors would certainly love a real rate on an inflation linked gilt/bond this high. :) No guarantees real rates will ever rise

agree
by grok87
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

Check me on this. If I'm correct, the current annual inflation rate (based on monthly CPI-U data) as of April 2005 is actually negative, with a minus sign, -0.20%. It has been negative every month this year (we call that deflation don't we?) . I've decided to keep my safe money in TIAA Traditional,...
by grok87
Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

similar issue for me
my bws stock has changed ticker to cal.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3230136 ... sive-stock

Norbert- can you please fix?
thanks
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

Grok, Alas, my days of buying 30-year TIPS are over. I have my ladder nearly completed that takes me from 65-85 and change, but I've decided to do rolling 10-year TIPS after that, if I'm healthy enough to justify it. I-bonds are fine, as questioned above, but you're so restricted by quantity that t...
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

grok - I know there are limitations on purchasing I-Bonds but my preference would be to load up on these before buying TIPS. Of course you can only do that outside your tax-deferred accounts, but they are kind of "roth-like" in that you are investing after-tax funds and will only pay tax ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

grok, your comments in this thread, and comments I vaguely recall from previous ones, indicate that you're constructing a ladder of 30-year TIPS, and mean to keep doing so, even if current rates are only attractive in relative terms, rather than in absolute terms compared to TIPS yields in years pa...
by grok87
Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

30 year tips real yield now at 1.14% on the secondary (blowing right past my 1.125%)

Now i'm hoping for 1.25% at auction...
by grok87
Tue Jun 02, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

So the next thrice-yearly 30 year tips auction will be announced next Thursday June 11th. The actual auction date is Thursday June 18th. Current secondary market yield is 1.063%. The auction often tails so I'm hoping for a 1.125% yield. At these levels I'll be making a substantial purchase. Anyone ...
by grok87
Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4801

30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

So the next thrice-yearly 30 year tips auction will be announced next Thursday June 11th. The actual auction date is Thursday June 18th. Current secondary market [real] yield is 1.063%. The auction often tails so I'm hoping for a 1.125% [real] yield. At these levels I'll be making a substantial purc...
by grok87
Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Risk Parity Is Even Better Than We Thought
Replies: 18
Views: 1474

Re: AQR/Asness - Risk Parity Is Even Better Than We Thought

Another term for the poor man's "risk parity" portfolio is "more bonds, less stocks." I found out a long time ago that the optimal point on the risk-adjusted return continuum is about 25% - 30% stocks and the remainder in intermediate bonds. Not the biggest secret in the investi...
by grok87
Tue May 19, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Didn't grok win last year? And up 23%+ already for 2015? Man, he's good. I think I will liquidate my index funds and give him all my money. Thanks protagonist, that's very kind. No i came in second last year, if memory serves, and I'm in 5th place this year. I'm thinking about Making a full time ca...
by grok87
Fri May 15, 2015 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

hmmm...pretty close race in 2-4th place. I predict I'll end up 2nd, same as last year...
by grok87
Sun May 10, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recently relocated family seeking advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1627

Re: Recently relocated family seeking advice

good point on the property taxes- those may or may not be tax deductible on your federal return. i believe they typically are deductible under regular income tax but not under AMT. i guess the idea of renting a condo as your primary residence and then buying a house to rent out at the same time stri...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 2283

Re: When to junk a car?

It's very simple. Add up the value of the car as-is with the cost of repair. If that number is smaller than the cost of a comparable condition vehicle without issues, then you repair it. For example, you estimate your G35 is $4500 and the cost of repair is $1900. Then I would repair it if a same ye...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 2283

Re: When to junk a car?

I was just reading somewhere that if you take good care of your car you should reasonably expect to get it to 200,000 miles. That author must not know anything about German cars. I'm struggling with these old car issues as well. I have a 14 year old Honda Odyssey with low mileage (i take the train ...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recently relocated family seeking advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1627

Re: Recently relocated family seeking advice

We are new to this forum and would like to thank you all in advance for your insights. We are a 51 year couple with a pre-teen kid recently relocated to the SF Bay Area. We earn in the mid $100k's, rent a home and live a modest lifestyle. Currently we have about $800k (5% roth, 35% 401k, 25% broker...
by grok87
Sat May 09, 2015 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to junk a car?
Replies: 27
Views: 2283

Re: When to junk a car?

I was just reading somewhere that if you take good care of your car you should reasonably expect to get it to 200,000 miles. That author must not know anything about German cars. I'm struggling with these old car issues as well. I have a 14 year old Honda Odyssey with low mileage (i take the train ...
by grok87
Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 67
Views: 11756

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

SO [ extract from this post by grok87 ] does not seem to paint a pretty picture for International Bonds Index - like Vanguard VTIBX Grok was referring to unhedged inflation-linked international bonds. Therefore his comments don't really apply to Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund (VTIBX) ...
by grok87
Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

It's the end of the first quarter. I'm running at a slight loss near the middle of the pack: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest :: Fund List Here's the standings: ⋅ Baysian Stochastic Fund from Fortuitous Financial (Randolph) ⋅ Pocket Liner (Cayman) ⋅ Consternatio Part...
by grok87
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

I'm curious how well participants real portfolios mirror the selections in the contest? The biotech slide has hurt my virtual ego at number one. 99% of my portfolio is in indexed and/or vanguard funds. i only have a couple of individual stock positions for "fun"-they've worked out ok but ...
by grok87
Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

yay i'm in 3rd place!
congratulations 4nursebee
by grok87
Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 comma club (my way)!!
Replies: 49
Views: 8545

Re: 2 comma club (my way)!!

Hi, As usual, thanks to all who have helped me in so many ways that I cannot count or list! No, okay then...........If I must list, then some which come to my mind are; Nisi, livesoft, Emergdoc, retiredjg, Taylor,cruncher, ladyGeek,grok87,VictoriaF, grabiner,Frugalinvestor,gkaplan, bertilak, abus 3...
by grok87
Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?
Replies: 25
Views: 2726

Re: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?

Re the 30 year TIPs, I think the main point is that none of us know how long we are going to live. I think it is prudent to plan to live to 95 or so. It's really an insurance approach idea. You want insurance against the risk of outliving your money, or having your money eaten away by massive inflat...
by grok87
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 101
Views: 9664

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

Those of you who generally subscribe to Bogle-osophy but also have one or more equity positions that you intend to hold onto "forever": which ones are they? I have two: BRK(b) and AAPL. in the late 60s, early 70s there was a similar idea, called "one-decision" stocks. the idea w...
by grok87
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 101
Views: 9664

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

steve roy wrote:Mine is an ETF of Vanguard's Total Stock Market.

I swore off individual stocks during the period '08-'09, for reasons you can probably conjure up in your head without prompting from me.

+1
by grok87
Thu Feb 19, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

auction yield was 0.842%, not bad!
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

VictoriaF wrote:
grok87 wrote:4th place, within striking distance of 3rd.
http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
i'll take it!
:)


Good job! I am just below the mean but still in the positive territory.

Victoria

good job!
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Rational thinking suggests that when interest rates are below historical norms they are more likely to go up than down and visa versa. No guarantee of course. But locking in a historically very low rate for 30 years when you have good alternatives to establish you LMP later just doesn't seem like a...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Just had a look at the ssa life tables. Based on that, for a 65 year old man the 95th percentlie of age at death is 96 years old. For a 65 year old woman the 95th percentile of age at death is 99 years. So if you want to be 95. Percent certain of not outliving your tips, a man would stop buying tip...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Indicative Yield on Vanguard's site says 0.814% as of today. I will be almost 70 when this matures... At Vanguard it now shows 0.860%. Nice to see rates rising as the auction approaches. I agree, at some point one needs to start taking one's age into consideration. Personally I think i will scale b...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Indicative Yield on Vanguard's site says 0.814% as of today. I will be almost 70 when this matures... At Vanguard it now shows 0.860%. Nice to see rates rising as the auction approaches. I agree, at some point one needs to start taking one's age into consideration. Personally I think i will scale b...
by grok87
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

4th place, within striking distance of 3rd.
http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
i'll take it!
:)
by grok87
Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Indicative Yield on Vanguard's site says 0.814% as of today. I will be almost 70 when this matures... I agree, at some point one needs to start taking one's age into consideration. Personally I think i will scale back my buying as i approach retirement and stop buying when i hit 65. I think plannin...
by grok87
Wed Feb 11, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

29 year tip yield @ 0.745%. looks like my yield forecast of 0.75% for the 30 year auction may be too low!

1% here we come???
by grok87
Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 171
Views: 20105

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Pizzasteve510 wrote:The directors of MONTAGE Index Liberty Fund <MILF> need cash to fund our interest in a particularly hit prospect.

Please liquidate our long holding of Amazon.com AMZN
Closing price 374.28 +23.9%

time to buy AMAZON and NETFLIX!
by grok87
Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

The Treasury issues a daily estimate of real yields, which translate to TIPS yields, and it's usually pretty accurate: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield At the close Friday the 30-year real yield was 0.68%, up 14 basis points...
by grok87
Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Hi grok, I'm on board with you for 1/3 of my annual purchase as well. I found your idea of a 0.52% floor interesting. I don't have a rule to fall back on, yet, although I have a hunch that I'll probably just follow rates down wherever they go and keep buying. I don't mind skipping one of the 3 auct...
by grok87
Fri Feb 06, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

29 year tips yield now at 0.68%. so 0.75% is looking good for the auction...
by grok87
Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3855

30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

So the next 30 year tips auction will be announced on February 12th. At that time you should be able to place orders with Vanguard, etc. The current real yield on the 29 year TIP is about 0.60%. The new 30 year tips will be a year longer, plus there is usually some extra yield from buying at auction...
by grok87
Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19288

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Is the discussion on TIPs the same if one holds them via direct ownership (outright purchase say via Treasury Direct) or through a mutual fund such as VAIPX? I understand that one can loose value in the NAV buy holding a fund if the inflation rate declines. But, if you hold the TIPs directly with t...
by grok87
Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19288

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

... newly auctioned tips have a valuable "deflation put" ... I just bought the 10 year tip at auction. Real yield was ... 0.315% ... what if there is deflation? Say inflation is -2% per year for 10 years. ... I will never get back less nominal dollars than i invested. So my nominal return...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19288

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Why do Bogleheads love TIPS so much? I don't get it. The fed tries its best to control inflation (is it not their mandate?) and we haven't seen much unexpected inflation in decades. Why not just hold Total Bond Market or Intermediate-Term Munis? Won't those, over the long run, keep up with inflatio...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19288

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

30 year tips real yield now at 0.485%. At this point I am stopping buying new 30 year tips. Still holding onto the ones I've got. If the real yield gets close to 0 I will be selling I was just noticing that 10 year TIPS was yielding approximately 0% and the 30 year approximately 0.5% and was consid...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 82
Views: 8705

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

I have abandoned tips before. I sold out of all my 30 year tips when the real rates got to like 0.2% or so. I started buying back in when the rate got back up to 0.6-0.7% Yes, I see... but of course we all know rates are only going to go up from here on out. :wink: ok so I'm halfway to abandoning t...
by grok87
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19288

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

30 year tips real yield now at 0.485%. At this point I am stopping buying new 30 year tips. Still holding onto the ones I've got. If the real yield gets close to 0 I will be selling

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