Search found 4107 matches

by grayfox
Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?
Replies: 29
Views: 2557

Re: Thoughts on Fixed-Maturity Bond Funds?

lack_ey said: Largely pointless unless you're liability matching something in the future specifically, or want some illusion of control. An overdrawn conclusion. For the majority of investors (e.g., those not running an endowment in perpetuity) return/recovery of principal will loom large at some p...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-29-15)
Replies: 24
Views: 4247

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-24-15)

Change from 24-Jun-2015 to 29-Jun-2015 S&P 500 P/E10 = 27.07 -> 26.41 E10/P = 3.69413% -> 3.78644 Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF ( VCIT ) as of 06/24/2015 Market price = $85.05 -> 85.30 NAV = $85.01 -> $85.21 SEC Yield = 3.33% -> 3.39% Premium/Discount = +$0.04 -> +$0.09 Vanguard ...
by grayfox
Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-29-15)
Replies: 24
Views: 4247

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-24-15)

What is the range of probable outcomes of investing $10,000 in VFINX or VCIT? I will estimate using E10/P for VFINX and SEC Yield for VCIT as predictor models and estimate a prediction interval for each. VFINX P/E10 = 27.07, E10/P predicts a 10-year return of 3.7% +/- 8%. 10-year Outcome: $6,440 -> ...
by grayfox
Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-29-15)
Replies: 24
Views: 4247

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-24-15)

S&P 500 P/E10 = 27.07 E10/P = 3.69413% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF ( VCIT ) as of 06/24/2015 Market price = $85.05 Change $0.10 0.11% NAV = $85.01 Change $0.16 0.19% SEC Yield = 3.33% Number of Bonds = 1632 YTM = 3.2% Avg Coupon = 3.9% Avg Maturity = 7.5 years Avg Duration = 6...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-29-15)
Replies: 24
Views: 4247

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-24-15)

I am also looking at Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF ( VCLT ) SEC Yield = 4.78% YTM = 4.6% Avg Coupon = 5.5% Avg Maturity = 23.9 years Avg Duration = 13.8 years U.S. Government 0.2% Aaa 2.0% Aa 6.0% A 42.6% Baa 49.2% < Baa 0.0% VCLT/VCIT might be a better deal than S&P500. I might wait unt...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-29-15)
Replies: 24
Views: 4247

Re: Graham's "margin of safety" for US stocks (6-24-15)

If stocks are at 4.83% and AAA bonds are at 3.98%, why not re-diect new investments into AAA instead of stocks? Also, I'm not sure if you can easily get 3.98%. Looking at Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF ( VCIT ) SEC Yield = 3.32% YTM = 3.2% Avg Coupon = 3.9% Avg Maturity = 7.5 years Av...
by grayfox
Thu Jun 18, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best "All Around Lens" for Nikon DSLRs?
Replies: 105
Views: 7875

Re: Best "All Around Lens" for Nikon DSLRs?

Grayfox, is your camera FX or DX? That 28-300 is interesting, but with a DX camera (as OP has), I'd probably opt for the 18-200. Nice lens, and maybe I would like to travel with it in place of my 24-70 2.8 and 70-200 2.8, but then what would I do for exercise? Something to consider. FX (Nikon D700)...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30+ year "set it and rebalance it" portfolio thoughts
Replies: 18
Views: 2034

Re: 30+ year "set it and rebalance it" portfolio thoughts

If you were planning to make monthly $1000 contributions to a taxable account for the next 30 years and would not touch the money before then, what asset allocation would you choose (assuming you rebalance through monthly contributions and annually as needed)? Why? Here's how it would have worked f...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel's letter to the editor on Shiller's CAPE data problem
Replies: 14
Views: 2659

Re: Siegel's letter to the editor on Shiller's CAPE data problem

The best models are usually the simplest models. S/P, E/P, D/P, B/P, etc., where all the variables can be objectively defined, i.e. everyone will come up with the same number. When you start including fudge factors, which make the numbers come out the way you believe they should, the whole exercise ...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best "All Around Lens" for Nikon DSLRs?
Replies: 105
Views: 7875

Re: Best "All Around Lens" for Nikon DSLRs?

I have a Nikon D5100 camera with a 35 mm lens. I would like to travel with a single zoom lens (leaving the 35 mm behind) that would work in most situations and is not too heavy. Any recommendations for those of us who like to just point and shoot? Thanks in advance. Roosevelt. I decided that the mo...
by grayfox
Sat Jun 13, 2015 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

Here's a thought I just had. We know the difference between a bond fund and a bond. A bond has a fixed maturity, so every year it's time-to-maturity and duration get shorter and shorter until it is 0 a the end point. On the other hand, the bond fund keeps it's maturity and duration constant. There i...
by grayfox
Sat Jun 13, 2015 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

For anyone interested, here's a Boglehead discussion on Rebalancing from 2009

What does rebalancing do for you? Not much
by grayfox
Fri Jun 12, 2015 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk Bond default rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1322

Re: Junk Bond default rates

http://www.lagunabeachbikini.com/images/2015/investing/VWEHX-SEC.png BTW, from this chart, it looks like 2009 was a great time to invest in VWEHX. The price had crashed and junk bonds were dirt cheap. The SEC Yield spiked up to over 13% for a short time. The low price is also what made the 5-year r...
by grayfox
Fri Jun 12, 2015 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund vs ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 1657

Re: Fund vs ETF

With open-end mutual funds, you can chose to re-invest dividends and capital gains. Can you do this with ETFs? I don't know. This is convenient when you are accumulating or if you like to see your total return for each fund you hold, and not have distributions going into a money market fund. Isn't t...
by grayfox
Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum vs Mean Reversion
Replies: 5
Views: 710

Re: Momentum vs Mean Reversion

Both Momentum and Mean Reversion are forms of auto-correlation. The auto-correlation for US equities is negative wrt the last two months, then become positive for about 12 months and then dissipates. The auto-correlation of different asset classes (including non-US equities) is slightly different, ...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk Bond default rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1322

Re: Junk Bond default rates

Bonds with credit risk are much more complicated than default-free government bonds. With default-free G-bonds, you always get your interest and principle payments on time. If you want safety of principal, invest only in default free bonds. Investment-grade corporates are more complicated than defau...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

:?: What would be the value of the portfolio at the end if there was rebalancing? I will answer this now: I don't know. 1. The are 1001 different rebalancing algorithms. They would probably all have a different outcomes depending on the timing of each transaction. 2. Even if I did specified the reb...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

Here is why I think re-balancing is a mistake. http://s26.postimg.org/jcgw58a49/Howar_Marks_Risk_Return.png You choose an asset allocation of 50/50 because you feel that has a good distribution of outcomes. Suppose it is the second distribution from the right, and the 30-year expected TR = 10x and t...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

I found this chart from another thread, which illustrates various distributions of outcome over the holding period, which was 30 years in the example, as more is invested in the stock. http://s26.postimg.org/jcgw58a49/Howar_Marks_Risk_Return.png The distribution on the left might be for a 10/90 inve...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2015 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

My question is, why start at 50/50? Why not 90/10 or even 100/0? L. Every asset allocation has a different distribution of outcomes. There's a trade off between expected return and variation of outcome. 0/100 would have lowest expected return, but a small variance. If my needs were met by a very lo...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

So if my desired AA is 50/50 and over time, that drifts to 90/10, the author says what? Don't rebalance? I will put some numbers on this example. Suppose that some month you have $1,000 to invest for your retirement 30 years hence. Let's say you decide to invest 50/50 stocks/bonds: $500 into bonds ...
by grayfox
Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 3930

Re: Rebalancing

You did not provided a link Professor Campbell Harvey at Duke so I don't know what he actually thinks. But I agree that rebalancing between stocks and bonds has little or no benefit. Or even harmful. I started saving and investing for retirement c. 1980. I based my strategy on Malkiel's book A Rando...
by grayfox
Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stonehenge 4-Sale. Best Offer.
Replies: 6
Views: 1141

Stonehenge 4-Sale. Best Offer.

I nearly missed this in the newspaper earlier this week. Daily Telegraph June 1, 1915 Page 6 Sale of Stonehenge A National Monument Stonehenge for sale. The news is enough to rouse the envy of all American millionaires who are bitten by the craze for acquiring antiques. Here is the oldest of our tem...
by grayfox
Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 76
Views: 5776

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?

I used the Excel PMT() function. PV=-100000, you have $100,000 FV=0 assuming that you want to spend down your nest egg to $0 TYPE=0 If you are retiring at 35, then NPER=65 brings you out to age 100 The hard one is Rate. I arbitrarily picked 2% return PMT = $2,763 or 2.76% maximum withdrawal rate. 1/...
by grayfox
Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?
Replies: 38
Views: 4963

Re: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?

This looks much more appealing to me than a fixed inflation adjusted SWR. 25% higher initial income than 4% rule and 67% higher than 3%. I added no less than 75% of prior year withdrawal as the only modifier. Higher real income initially and good potential for higher real income going forward, no t...
by grayfox
Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is total return vs. dividend investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 4007

Re: What is total return vs. dividend investing?

This thread is of particular interest to me because of our current situation. A few years ago I inherited a substantial portfolio from my DF, that pays upwards of $120K in dividends annually. The portfolio is a collection of stocks, MF's and MLP's that on average, yield a total of about 3.7%. So, t...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 03, 2015 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 9378

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

The example I gave above abstracted from operational risk by assuming a constant level of profits. In general, we can classify investment risk as having two types: operational risk and market risk. Operational risk includes things like the BP oil spill, which has a direct effect on profits. Clearly...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 9378

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Another thing that should be considered is market closures. After the terrorist attack in the morning, the stock market didn't open on September 11. It re-opened on September 17. Many people are unaware that that the U.S. stock market was closed in 1914 at the beginning of World War I. It was closed...
by grayfox
Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is total return vs. dividend investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 4007

Re: What is total return vs. dividend investing?

I know I should know better than to post a Q about the "D" word, but these last several forum threads (you know the ones I'm talking about!) leave me in the dust. What is the difference between total return investing and dividend - ooops I said it :oops: - investing? Is it different than ...
by grayfox
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10052

Re: 30-year rolling returns, S&P 500, nominal and real

Thanks grayfox. That's super helpful. Now I'm wondering if SD1*sqrt(N) is the problem. I just skimmed this white paper from Morningstar which explains why SD1*sqrt(N) systematically underestimates volatility (even assuming returns are idd). In fact, the higher returns are, the more it underestimate...
by grayfox
Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10052

Re: 30-year rolling returns, S&P 500, nominal and real

Let's use geometric average annual returns, since that seems to be how things are usually done. The Oblivious Investor has a spreadsheet with rolling returns and standard deviation. It uses the Damodaran data and adjusts for inflation. His results are below. (I trust Mike's spreadsheet more than my...
by grayfox
Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10052

Re: 30-year rolling returns, S&P 500, nominal and real

[ Just eyeballing it, I bet that 30 year real stdev < 1 year real stdev/sqrt(30), i.e. that you'll find long-term mean reversion. First, the approximation is to multiply by the square root of the number of periods (not divide). Typically this is done to estimate annual standard deviation by multipl...
by grayfox
Sun May 31, 2015 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10052

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

From HARRY MARKOWITZ's 1952 paper PORTFOLIO SELECTION, THE PROCESS OF SELECTING a portfolio may be divided into two stages. The first stage starts with observation and experience and ends with beliefs about the future performances of available securities. The second stage starts with the relevant be...
by grayfox
Fri May 29, 2015 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 96
Views: 9849

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

Let me fill In some income and expense questions. My wife and I are both on SS now. We did the math and we didn't need the extra income by waiting until FRA or even age 70. At 62 it would have taken me 12 years from age 66 to "break even" from the increased FRA benefit. I didn't feel like...
by grayfox
Tue May 12, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
Replies: 96
Views: 13131

Re: NYT article on 4% retirement

We let these guys off too easily. The reduction in consensus estimates for "safe" or "sustainable" withdrawal rates between 1994 and 2015 invalidates the idea and methodology of trying to estimate these rates. While taking a couple of Stanford courses on Retirement & Pension...
by grayfox
Tue May 12, 2015 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
Replies: 96
Views: 13131

Re: NYT article on 4% retirement

555 wrote:But then your strawman will get all dusty. :oops:


Strawman…or Tinman?
by grayfox
Mon May 11, 2015 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of consistent dividend growth
Replies: 18
Views: 1701

Re: Skeptical of consistent dividend growth

I did some analysis one day and came to the result that the amount of money you could withdraw from a portfolio only depended on the Total Return . How much return came from dividends or capital gains did not matter. It will stick my neck out and state that this is an indisputable mathematical fact....
by grayfox
Mon May 11, 2015 2:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
Replies: 96
Views: 13131

Re: NYT article on 4% retirement

We let these guys off too easily. The reduction in consensus estimates for "safe" or "sustainable" withdrawal rates between 1994 and 2015 invalidates the idea and methodology of trying to estimate these rates. While taking a couple of Stanford courses on Retirement & Pension...
by grayfox
Fri May 08, 2015 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks
Replies: 92
Views: 5320

Re: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks

Imagine that you're a long-term investor. You have a lump sum that you will need for your retirement in 30 years and you know that you won't need the money until then. Would you have been better off buying stocks in November 1929 right before the great depression? Or would you have been better off ...
by grayfox
Fri May 08, 2015 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up
Replies: 19
Views: 2658

Re: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up

So then the expected return after 2D-1 years is the initial yield. That is good to know. But the actual return after 2D-1 years depends on the specific sequence of interest rate changes? Then I guess we do NOT know what the actual return will be because we don't know the future sequence of rates. So...
by grayfox
Thu May 07, 2015 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up
Replies: 19
Views: 2658

Re: Returns of Bond Funds when interest rates go up

The generalized principle is that the excess return over starting yield should equal zero when the number of years equals 2 times the duration minus 1 (2D – 1)." Further, Leibowitz emphasizes that most bond funds behave this way, thus, if one were to purchase the Vanguard Total Bond Market Ind...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Report 2014
Replies: 45
Views: 5170

Re: Yale Endowment Report 2014

As I recall that's what tripped up the Beardstown Ladies Investment Club some years ago. Remember that one? Yeah, that was pretty funny. I assume that Yale wouldn't do that. But it seems like it would be worthwhile showing how much they added vs. how much they paid out. Not to mention, how much in ...
by grayfox
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Report 2014
Replies: 45
Views: 5170

Re: Yale Endowment Report 2014

The report shows 2014 value was 23,894.8. 2013 value was $20,780.0 2014 Spending was $1,041.5 Using the formula (p1 + d0) / p0 - 1, I calculate the 2014 return as 0.2000144 or 20.0% (The report shows 20.2%. Close enough.) But doesn't Yale get new contributions each year? They are constantly soliciti...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3370

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

OK, thanks. So how is variance and covariance estimated? Just looking at historical variance and covariance, or some complicated model that looks at different factors that contribute to return? http://www.msci.com/products/indexes/strategy/factor/minimum_volatility/ Barra Global Equity Model (GEM2)...
by grayfox
Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global Minimum Volatility?
Replies: 40
Views: 3370

Re: Global Minimum Volatility?

Global Minimum Variance Portfolio (GMVP) is straight out of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). But rather than finding the Tangency Portfolio (TP), which has maximum Sharpe slope, GMVP is the tip of the Markowitz bullet. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Markowitz_frontier.jpg Finding t...
by grayfox
Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 8238

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

I thought I would post the results for another bond fund: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares ( VWITX ). I used the same scale as the chart for VFITX to allow direct comparison. I am posting both here for comparison. http://www.lagunabeachbikini.com/images/2015/investing/VFITX...
by grayfox
Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 8238

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Some Bogleheads like to describe a bond fund as analogous to a CD ladder. If it was like CD ladder, VFITX would hold bonds in about equal percentages from 10 down to 0 years. And the expected return might be the YTM or SEC Yield. So the CD ladder is a poor model for VFITX. The bond fund managers ar...
by grayfox
Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 8238

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

BTW, as of today VFITX has SEC Yield = 1.30% and Duration = 5.2 years.
The 5 year Treasury has yield 1.61%
Penfed has a 5-year CD with APY = 1.61%
Bankrate.com shows a 2.32% 5-year Jumbo CD at CIT Bank.

For a 5-year holding period, which would you choose?
by grayfox
Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 8238

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

We all know that if you hold a bond to maturity, the return is the Yield-to-Maturity YTM. For a bond fund, SEC Yield is analogous to YTM. So I had always thought that, on average, you would get the SEC Yield from a bond fund if the holding period was duration years. In other words, expected return o...
by grayfox
Tue Jan 27, 2015 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 8238

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

I looked at this same issue last year. Actually, I looked at various forecasting models for both stock funds and bond funds. For stock funds I looked at DDM, CAPE and FCF models. For bond funds, the SEC-YIeld model. I wanted to evaluate the accuracy of these various forecasting models. In other word...

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