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Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Your points are well taken, Grayfox. But understand that the rationale behind a low-return future is not that discount rates have been falling for centuries, but that they have fallen dramatically since 1980 . If you read the 2013 piece by Dimson, Marsh and Staunton ("The Low-Return World,&quo...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 01, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 159
Views: 9020

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Just to offer a concrete example of what a "low-return" future looks like, the table below shows William Bernstein's estimates for expected annual real returns of major asset classes over the next 10 years (from his book, Rational Expectations , published May 2014). These estimates are mo...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 159
Views: 9020

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Could we be living through a major shift in the long-term valuation of global financial assets? Many respected financial commentators, from Bill Gross to Burton Malkiel to Vanguard, continue to express their belief that today's persistently-high global asset prices will assure lower future returns ...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 159
Views: 9020

Re: How to become a millionaire retiree -- then and now

Actual data: 1978 BSEE graduates $14,700 exactly BSME and CS were about the same. Business Majors were getting offers of about $12,500. They were very jealous of engineers about that. Geology majors had the highest, maybe about $18,000 - $20,000 ?, shocking everybody. And we thought they were just c...
by grayfox
Mon Sep 01, 2014 6:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to become a millionaire retiree -- then and now
Replies: 57
Views: 5845

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph, Tuesday, August 25, 1914. The Fall of Namur The paper reports on the fall of the fortress at Namur. This was the second, and final, big Belgian fortress blocking the German advance into France. However, the Telegraph downplays the importance of this. There were two fortresses, Lieg...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Is it me, or are "collectibles" worthless in 2014?

Is it me, or are certain collectible/memorabilia items pretty much worthless now? <snip> I don't know anything about collectibles, but I have had similar experience as yours selling other things in eBay. In 2004/2005 I was selling a lot of stuff on eBay. Mostly used camera equipment, but also old c...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it me, or are "collectibles" worthless in 2014?
Replies: 79
Views: 6013

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

The are a few good articles in the Brooklyn Daily Eagle, Sunday, August 23, 1914 Headline on page 1 - FIRST PITCHED BATTLE ON--200,000 ENGAGED Why Germany Went to War There's a good article on page 6, by Edgar Stanton MacClay, about why the Germans went to war. It all boils down to simple arithmetic...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph, Sunday, August 23, 1914 Not much war news today in the mere six pages in the Sunday Special. But looking in the TimeLine of WWI , at lot is destined to happen today and the next few weeks. Today will be the Battle of Mons , where the BEF first meet the Germans. Battle of the Fronti...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 23, 2014 2:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

There's a list at Free Newspaper Archives in the US , and another at Historical Newspapers and Indexes On The Internet - USA The Brooklyn Daily Eagle is free (thanks to Tom Tryniski ): http://bklyn.newspapers.com/ . Thanks. The Brooklyn Daily Eagle reports GERMAN FORCES REACH FRENCH SOIL; BRUSSELS ...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

I reported the other day that the Servians defeated the Austrians at the Battle of Cer Mountain, August 16-19. (Cer is pronounced tser. In Servian цер, it means turkey oak or Austrian oak, a kind of oak tree that grew there. L. Quercus cerris) To commemorate the battle, a Serbian composer Stanislav ...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph, Friday, August 21, 1914 GERMANS ENTER BRUSSELS I've heard accounts from eyewitnesses who reported that when the German army marched into Brussels, the lines of German troops marching in lockstep to the sound of drum and fife continued non-stop 24 hours or more. They described it as...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

Average 10-Year Stock Returns, by Starting Cyclically-Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE), Since 1900 http://i.imgur.com/OUOzFyj.png Source: Meb Faber Research This chart is getting closer to the reality of stock investing and valuations. Suppose I plan to purchase an annuity in ten years. I have $10,00...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 19, 2014 4:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4907

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Battle of Cer. Aug 15-19 Meanwhile, back in Serbia, on page 8 the Telegraph reports Defeat of the Austrian Army. Servian Victory. The defeat of the Austria army at Shabatz (Šabac). This was the Battle of Cer . Šabac is on the River Sava, about 100 km west of Belgrade. The Sava was the border with H...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 19, 2014 3:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph Wednesday, August 19 1914 I'm looking for news of the fall of Liege. It seems like eventually, they will have to report it. In SUMMARY on page 6, "The position in Belgium appears to remain unchanged… Some of the Liege forts seem to have been evacuated." The paper is gradua...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 19, 2014 3:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

IMO, this whole concept of stocks being undervalued, fairly valued, overvalued is flawed. I think it was dreamed up by stock brokers to get their customers to buy and sell stock. Back in the day, stock brokers made all their money on commissions. If they wanted to eat, they had to convince their cli...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4907

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

Below data is till April 2014. The markets have just reverted to mean... http://blogs.mathworks.com/images/loren/2014/SP500_StdDev_Analysis_29Apr14_01.png I don't believe that this chart is meaningful. It's just an example from Mathworks blog MATLAB Central to demonstrate how to use MatLab to get Y...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4907

Re: Inflation-indexed SPIAs: A Good Deal?

Awesome work! :thumbsup I am just trying to understand this, but it looks like the Inflation adjusted SPIA is a good deal, even at younger ages like 40 or 50. In fact age 80 and 85, present value is lower. I've heard that present value of Social Security payments is the same no matter what age you t...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation-indexed SPIAs: A Good Deal?
Replies: 22
Views: 2906

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph Tuesday, August 18 1914 The big news story today is that the British Expeditionaru Force (BEF) has landed in France. According to wikipedia, they actual started landing on August 7, but it was kept secret. I guess there was a fear of German U-boats sinking troop transports. The BEF ...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 18, 2014 4:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

According to Wikipedia, yesterday, August 16, 1914 was the end of the Siege of Liege. All twelve forts were either destroyed or surrendered. The Belgian commander, General Leman, was taken prisoner. The Belgian army has pulled back to Antwerp The Germans are free to take Brussels and advance toward ...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Comparing Risk of Bond Barbell and Bullet

Also, consider calculating the price of a bond using a single discount rate for all the coupon payments and the final principal payment. Since the yield curve is normally upward sloping, i.e. higher rates for longer periods, if one uses the longest rate, say 7 year discount rate, for all the cash fl...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comparing Risk of Bond Barbell and Bullet
Replies: 32
Views: 1958

Re: Comparing Risk of Bond Barbell and Bullet

What I am learning from this thread is that when calculating the Present Value of a series of cash flows you have to use different discount rates for each cash flow that is received at different times. This is covered in Present value 4 (and discounted cash flow) at Khan Academy. This applies to cal...
by grayfox
Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comparing Risk of Bond Barbell and Bullet
Replies: 32
Views: 1958

Re: Comparing Risk of Bond Barbell and Bullet

Well in that case, instead of having to come up with a complex function to calculate the PV for a series of payments at various discount rates, just do that calculation using zero-coupon bond so there is only one payment. I'm pretty sure that the OP is all just hypothetical anyway, so why not simpli...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 16, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comparing Risk of Bond Barbell and Bullet
Replies: 32
Views: 1958

Re: The (un)freshness of Starbucks bakery products

So, Starbucks takes their factory-produced baked goods that are packaged in plastic with an expiration date in 6 months, which can only be achieved with chemical preservatives, removes the scone from the plastic bag and puts it into a paper bag so that the customer is led to believe that it is fresh...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The (un)freshness of Starbucks bakery products
Replies: 49
Views: 4469

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Here is an excellent map of what Europe looked like in 1914 from National Geographic. 1914 Balkan States and Central Europe Most of central and eastern Europe and divided up by the three empire: Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia. There is no Poland, Ukraine, Czechoslovakia, etc. You can make this ...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Actually, I have already achieved one major goal I had, which was to observe how, during the summer of 1914, the world went from a peaceful holiday time, people going to the beach, enjoying their lives, etc. to all out warfare, killing each other by thousands, in about two weeks time. :shock: If you...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

One of the things I'm learning by reading the daily newspaper account of the war is how little was reported about what was actually going on. If I follow the newspaper account and then cross-reference the days with Timeline of World War I on wikipedia, I can see there is a lot that has happened that...
by grayfox
Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?

It was the free course from Stanford Graduate School of Business offered through NovoEd : Finance of Retirement & Pensions taught by Joshua Rauh, Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business.
by grayfox
Tue Aug 12, 2014 2:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?
Replies: 93
Views: 4311

Re: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?

From 1980 - 2002, I had only read two books on investing: 1. Andrew Tobias, The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need. a. Leared that you don't need to invest in things like commodities, options, futures, etc. and all the other stuff the financial industry is trying to sell you. b. All you need is ...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who or what inspired you and your investing approach?
Replies: 93
Views: 4311

Re: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?

This analysis is very interesting and it is probably useful for insurance companies to see how much profit they should expect to make selling the various kinds of annuities. Let's say they sell to customers aged 65 a DIA for $500,000 that pays out $46,560 per year starting at age 70, as in the examp...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 11, 2014 1:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?
Replies: 59
Views: 4628

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

The thing is there are other investment options over a 10 year period. While not guaranteed, the likely return is a lot higher. That is the main idea. Other investments are not guaranteed, meaning you don't know how much you will end up with. As an example, let's add option 4, invest in stock marke...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 09, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 85
Views: 6825

Re: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities

To choose between a DIA and a SPIA, look at the cost of each. 60 years old in 2014, wants guaranteed CPI-adjusted $4000 per month income for life starting at age 70 in 2024. These numbers are approximate and/or estimates. 1. Purchase a DIA with CPI-U adjustment. Risk of unexpected inflation for 2014...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 09, 2014 5:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard quietly adds longevity annuities
Replies: 85
Views: 6825

Re: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?

The problem is that you can't create an guaranteed income by simply plugging in an average for inflation. Inflation is highly volatile. This is exactly analogous to using average portfolio return to choose a safe withdrawal rate. If we could assume the portfolio would return an average historical r...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?
Replies: 59
Views: 4628

Re: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yours

200-day MA was thoroughly explored in that gigantic previous thread, so there is really no reason for me to add anything to this topic. But I will anyway. :D This is basically trying to beat the market. Not by picking stocks thats will outperform the market when everything is going up, but by sidest...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yourself.
Replies: 59
Views: 4404

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph, Saturday, August 8 1914 http://www.lagunabeachbikini.com/images/1914/DailyTelegraph19140808-CallToArms.jpg Who will sign up? Unfortunately, no one over 30 or under 19 can enlist. (Born between 1884 and 1895.) How many of those first 100,000 new recruits ended up as casualties?
by grayfox
Fri Aug 08, 2014 1:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph, Thursday, August 6, 1914 Belgian Repulse of the Germans Germans defeated at Liege with heavy casualties. The Battle of Liege** has already begun. It is startling how quickly Europe went from no war to major battle with heavy casualties: July 20, the big news story was the trial of ...
by grayfox
Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?

Regarding the issue that the DIA does not protect against inflation before the payments start: It seems that the insurance companies offering these things don't want to take that inflation risk, so you are stuck with it. Then deal with it. :idea: Make an inflation forecast, say 2.5%, and buy that mu...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 05, 2014 4:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?
Replies: 59
Views: 4628

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph, Tuesday, August 4, 1914 I forget to post this yesterday, but in the August 4th paper, both Germany and France were accusing each other of making incursions into their territory, and denying that they were crossing the others' borders. On page 7, Germany had this to say: … France ha...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 05, 2014 3:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph Wednesday, August 5, 1914 War Begun between Great Britain and Germany. Minelayer Sunk by the Kaiser's Fleet. Cruiser Chased. Reuter's Agency is informed that the following statement was issued from the Foreign Office at 12.15 a.m.: Owing to the summary rejection by German Government...
by grayfox
Tue Aug 05, 2014 3:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?

Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity? It's insurance. Why would anyone buy any kind of insurance? To insure against some adverse event. In this case, it is running out of money at age 85. :idea: So anyone that follows one of the 4% Rule kind of retirement plan that has 5% chance of runnin...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would anyone buy a deferred income annuity?
Replies: 59
Views: 4628

Re: How Much Did You Lose Today?

I keep trying to tell everyone that when your balance went up 30% in 12 months because valuations went up, like P/E10 went from 20 to 25, those gains are not permanent. Of course, you can realize those gains if you sell today. But most people are not selling, and if you don't sell, then there's a go...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Did You Lose Today?
Replies: 166
Views: 14174

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph, Monday August 3 1914 Those wiki articles and history books skip over a lot of the details and intermediate steps. This happened on this date, this happened in this date, etc. But reading the Telegraph account every day, it was not so straightforward as they make it sound. It is mor...
by grayfox
Mon Aug 04, 2014 2:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

But we are getting ahead of ourselves. At this point, August 2, 1914, the U.S. is neutral. The only thing that has happened so far is that Austria-Hungary declared war on, and attacked, Servia, after rejecting the Servian reply to their Ultimatum. Russia has merely begun mobilisation. And now German...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 02, 2014 4:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

At this time, August 2, 1914, the U.S. Is neutral and trades with both sides. Britain was a close trading partner. But, I believe that the U.S. sold tons of wheat to Germany which arrives at their seaports on the North Sea. As you said, Germans are the biggest ethnic group in the U.S. so we should b...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

DECLARATION of WAR by GERMANY against RUSSiA. Yesterday, August 1, 1914, at 7:40 p.m. Germany formally declared war on Russia. The German Ambassador in St. Petersburg handed The Russian Foreign Ministry the declaration of war. Then the German Embassy staff left St. Petersburg. So the war has spread...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 02, 2014 1:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

One thing that's striking me, besides the well-known sudden escalation beyond what seemed a sad but contained matter, is how much the Telegraph's correspondents cast the impending conflict in racial, today we might say ethnic, terms, between "Slav and Teuton." Astute observation. There's ...
by grayfox
Sat Aug 02, 2014 12:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: How Much Did You Lose Today?

The only thing that matters is where it ends up on the day you liquidate your shares. The intermediate values are irrelevant. While I agree with the sentiment, the expected value at liquidation is a function of those intermediate values. There is one exception: TIPS held to maturity (assuming we ar...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Did You Lose Today?
Replies: 166
Views: 14174

Re: How Much Did You Lose Today?

I did not vote, because I don't know. How does anyone even know how much their balanced changed from yesterday? You would have had to record the balance yesterday and then check it again today. Who here is recording their balance daily? Even madsinger only issues his report on a monthly basis. Here ...
by grayfox
Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Did You Lose Today?
Replies: 166
Views: 14174

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

Daily Telegraph July 30 1914 BOMBARDMENT of BELGRADE Negotiations between Austria and Russia ended. Russia mobilizes. German anxious. Yesterday, Austrian gunboats bombarded Belgrade. Servian government has already pulled out of Belgrade to Kragujevac and Niš. The railway bridge over the River Sava ...
by grayfox
Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive

I've been following since the assassination on June 28th. Nothing really happened for a few weeks until Austria issued it's Ultimatum to Servia on July 23rd. I think it may have come as somewhat of a surprise to everyone. On July 13th, the Austrian investigation into the assassination concluded that...
by grayfox
Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daily Telegraph: World War One Archive
Replies: 95
Views: 6931

Re: Why should stocks go up over the long term?

Hi guys This is my first post on Bogleheads, however, I'm very familiar with Vanguard's offering and indexing in general. My question is, what is the underlying reason why stocks go up over the long term? Of course it is economic growth but what essentially drives this? This is quite an interest gr...
by grayfox
Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks go up over the long term?
Replies: 34
Views: 2888
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