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Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Grap, Thanks for the list. I'm currently using vanguard mutual funds as I prefer them over ETFs due to ease of automatic transactions and rebalancing, but have been thinking about biting the bullet and switching to ETFs to get more factor tilts. Now I'm trying to figure out the best brokerage to us...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

supertreat wrote:I'm curious as to what knowledgeable people consider the best funds to gain exposure to all the risk factors without DFA access. Anyone?


See my posts:

PXSV
PDN
DGS/PXH
by grap0013
Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

JohnnyFive wrote:Grap, I'm curious as to what your overall AA looks like. Do you use MTUM or any other fund loading on momentum?


No momentum load targeted. Sent you a PM.
by grap0013
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

Whenever I read about high valuations, I go back and read this article: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predictor-of-future-stock-market-returns/ The best 10 year predictor of stock market returns is not PE10; it's the percentage of stocks in investor's portfolios....
by grap0013
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4045

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

^ Right. And just as we shouldn't look at assets in isolation, nor should we look at factor loads in isolation. I think with RZV the large negative momentum load is a big drag on overall returns. For other funds with smaller negative momentum loading it still might be worth it depending on the amoun...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: We're all going to die!!!

Here are the 100 worst days since 1950: date close %change Black Mon, Oct, 19, 1987 224.84 -20.47% Wed, Oct, 15, 2008 907.84 -9.04% Mon, Dec, 01, 2008 816.21 -8.93% Mon, Sep, 29, 2008 1106.42 -8.81% Mon, Oct, 26, 1987 227.67 -8.28% Thu, Oct, 09, 2008 909.92 -7.62% Mon, Oct, 27, 1997 876.99 -6.87% M...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [S&P is down 1.3%, thus] We're all going to die!!!
Replies: 58
Views: 4719

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

Neither. I love my job! If I worked less, I'd probably volunteer and I'd have much less impact in helping people compared to my day job.
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 3846

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

I'm slowly finishing 14 Bogleheads' recommended books. I've found the books that are about financial history and investor's behavior most enlightening. Like you, I'm striving to be helpful to those who read and participate on this forum. 14 partially read books? Maybe you should just finish one in ...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4045

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

On the other hand at some point don't you realize that you picked a poor execution of your strategy? Do you abandon emerging markets if they underperform the US for 15 years? If you liked the initial reason for adding them, the strategy should not change. Similar logic applies to selection of speci...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

So if a normal cap weighted small value fund returns 20%/yr for a decade and the PXSV pure value index returns 15% for a decade, you are going to hold the course because you like the theory behind it? Personally I expect that is going to be real hard to do. It is easy to say SV is out of favor whic...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

I do know that stocks are highly valued now. How do you know this? Did you read it as a headline on Yahoo? I used to say the same things until I was wisened up by the Boglehead's reading list. Have you tried reading any of those books? I'm legitimately trying to be helpful. No snark intended. Thank...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4045

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

I am much less certain that the (Novy-Marx) profitability loads give meaningful results (particularly for smallcap stocks). For example the profitability ("company quality") load on S&P 600 pure value is about +0.30. This makes little sense to me. The RAFI fund also has a relatively l...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Ketawa wrote:True, but the same thing would apply to DFA as well. It seems like AQR is well respected, has been endorsed by Larry and approved for use in BAM, etc.


Good point.
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

You also can't confuse strategy with execution. If PXSV is trailing every other small value fund for 10+ years, you have to question if the index is the right one. Now figuring out if the underperformance is warranted (i.e. maybe you are getting beat by small value funds that invest in bigger growt...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

In this discussion there are two definitions of risk. One is SD and the other is potential ending value of the portfolio. Paul Right. And who cares if there is wider variability in ending portfolio value with stocks as long as the dispersion tends to be higher than bonds. You're best bet for higher...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

I have been keeping my eye on QSMLX as a potential holding. I'm still undecided, but it looks pretty good in Portfolio Visualizer. There isn't much data on it yet and no index data available to evaluate it. Not that you asked me, but the biggest bugaboo with QSMLX is the lack of underlying index. I...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Search the forum and you can find a post where Rick Ferri linked the RAFI index data, I think. I don't think S&P index data is publicly available anymore. JohnnyFive, I agree with Ketawa about the S&P index data. However, you can find it in an old Robert T thread somewhere. I'd link it, but...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

pkcrafter wrote:So, you need 40 years to invest in high equity allocations for 30 years? :wink:

Paul


He he he. Many roads to Dublin and all that. :-)
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Not sure how that is possible. By almost all accounts, RZV is probably the most "valuey" fund out there, and, the big knock on it has always been it's negative momentum load, which, by the way, is a product of how "valuey" it is. By almost any measureable, RSV is much more value...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

These types of threads are always entertaining. You cannot predict future stocks returns, but I can predict by posters' responses if they have a high stock allocation or not! :-)
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

So, what is 30 years--three 10 years terms? What if the 10 year period from year 20-30 is a very bad one? Then can we say stocks are less risky in the long term? I think it can be argued that there really is no long term--only a series of shorter terms which are risky, uncertain and unpredictable; ...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

ralph124cf wrote:
Does anybody know how often an ETF updates its AUM?

Ralph


Daily I believe.
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Can we please sticky this as this obvious point as it seems to be misunderstood over and over and ... The simple point is the range of returns will be greater (S.D.), but the lowest return will have a better chance of besting an all bond portfolio when time is given for stocks to produce returns cl...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

^ Maybe this means that PowerShares can finally get the PSXV AUM over the magical 100 million threshold. :) Yeah! Then we can all buy in taxable! I'm going to do my part and still pay my once per year $7.95 commission thru VG brokerage link to buy PXSV in my Roth until then. These fees are outrageo...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 186
Views: 15628

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

the bond fund zigged up more than individual bonds This is just plain wrong. Individual bonds move just the same as a fund. The only case might be a CD with an early redemption penalty, but a secondary market CD would have no such penalty. Note also that the current yield curve reflects all the inf...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3180

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

I ran a spreadsheet on this topic a while ago. Once you get to 25% of final goal the difference in retirement age only moved by 3 years for me with a 50% savings rate vs a 0% savings rate. OP, if you really want to coast then get to 25%. 25% of final goal at what age? I imagine it would make a big ...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 58
Views: 7354

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

I ran a spreadsheet on this topic a while ago. Once you get to 25% of final goal the difference in retirement age only moved by 3 years for me with a 50% savings rate vs a 0% savings rate. OP, if you really want to coast then get to 25%.
by grap0013
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 58
Views: 7354

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

Haven't you asked this before? Use 5 year treasuries. Expected return of that portfolio ~1 or 2% real. Not scary if that's all you need and you want huge downside protection.
by grap0013
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3180

Re: Key to happintess in retirement.

200 hours is only 4 per week. No wonder Americans are so darn unhappy while still working: we do it 2000++ hours per year. I don't see a :D in your post, but I still laughed anyway. Another way of looking at it is, "we are all working 10X more than we want to". Maybe when the workweek was...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Key to happiness in retirement
Replies: 36
Views: 3717

Re: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV

I've pretty much thought this was the case, but I find it frustrating when I see funds or ETFs being compared solely on the basis of their HML loading while some of these funds have intentionally selected their stocks based on multiple value criteria. I guess I can understand the convenience of sti...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV
Replies: 31
Views: 2506

Re: Angry when stock market is down

I disagree with the replies saying to not check the markets on a daily basis. The OP needs to confront reality, not ignore it. REITs, for example, are one of the more volatile asset classes (or sub-classes). So you're going to see a lot of movement in REIT prices whenever theres any news on interes...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 4162

New Morningstar App: How to Edit Number of Shares Owned?

Does anyone know how you can edit the number of shares you own in the new Morningstar app for iphones? I've played around with this thing for some time and for the life of me, I can't figure it out. It was super easy with the previous Morningstar version. If not, can you direct me to a place where I...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Morningstar App: How to Edit Number of Shares Owned?
Replies: 0
Views: 93

Re: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?

What the single riskiest asset that Bogleheads advocate? Is it SV mutual funds? I hope everyone sees that this thread is a little over 1 year old. The "single riskiest asset that Bogleheads advocate" is that which someone buys/owns but doesn't really understand - this, regardless if Bogle...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?
Replies: 81
Views: 7101

Re: The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing

I haven't read the former, but have read the latter. I find in amateur "volley type" sports one wins by simply returning the shot. This is true in volleyball, tennis, ping pong, badmitten etc... Volleyball is the hard one because it's a team sport. Every amateur volleyball team has a coupl...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 656

Re: 25 Years 55 to 80 Thanks Boggleheads and Vanguard

^Trying to get rid of your wife and play more golf eh Livesoft? :twisted:
by grap0013
Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 25 Years 55 to 80 Thanks Boggleheads and Vanguard
Replies: 6
Views: 1333

Re: The importance of discipline

To put it another way, consider the "meta-strategy" of changing your strategy every five years to the best-practice strategies of the day . (For example, following Burton Malkiel, allocating 15% of your equity allocation to international in 1990, and 50% to international in 2011). That's ...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The importance of discipline
Replies: 19
Views: 1367

Re: Should you care about risk-adjusted returns?

+1 to the OP. Easy example: In the US, small caps have had higher returns than large caps historically, but they are very similar from a risk adjusted perspective (accounting for short term volatility). However, once you add in an element of time such as holding period things get interesting. Small ...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you care about risk-adjusted returns?
Replies: 13
Views: 802

Re: Warning level

In looking at my profile I see there is a warning level, but I don't know what the number means. How many warning levels are there and what does each level mean? Thanks in advance, BobK Probably because you keep touting 105% stocks around here. :D FWIW, I think your warning level should be 1.05 You...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Warning level
Replies: 39
Views: 2312

Re: Modulating The Larry Portfolio

As I recall Grap, you use a LP with 100 percent equities. I don't think I quite have the courage for that. :) Some may call it foolishness rather than courage! :) I have my head wrapped around it and I actually believe maximizing factor loads makes one's profolio less risky due to the much lower co...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modulating The Larry Portfolio
Replies: 34
Views: 2322

Re: Modulating The Larry Portfolio

Robert's view is that he wants to target a factor loading of .2 in Small and .4 in Value. He then says that his objective is to target those loadings with as low cost as possible. (Now, as you say, he is involved with considering the MOM factor which would lead us to another level of complexity.) I...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modulating The Larry Portfolio
Replies: 34
Views: 2322

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

OP,

Since you sold low that tells me you do not likely have a high risk tolerance. I think you should do 50% stocks at maximum. Maybe 50:50 allocation? It's a nice agnostic approach.
by grap0013
Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6382

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

So many Bogleheads think 100% equity is just fine and not that risky, but all have discovered that 105% is just too risky. Why do you think that? Even "conservative" Bogleheads often have far more than 105% in equities. See my above post. If it were true that many conservative Bogleheads ...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5390

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I'm not sure who these "many people" are, but the most thoughtful all-stock investors aren't opposed to in principle to borrowing money to buy stocks. They've just looked at the risk/reward characteristics of moving from 100% to 105% stocks and discovered that it's not the same risk/rewar...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5390

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Purchasing an indexed call contract involves no borrowing of money. Why not go from 100% to 105% stocks by investing 98% in stocks and 2% in indexed stock call options. What is the big extra risk here? The worst that can happen to the options is that they expire worthless and your portfolio is down...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 03, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5390

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I have trouble understanding why those who believe 100% allocation to stocks is a good idea, wouldn't also believe that investing more than 100% would be an even better idea. So why don't we see threads advocating 105% or 110% stocks? Where is the magic in 100%? If you think holding 100% equities i...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5390
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