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Re: Lost $10K in my investments past few months

Rescaling my own recent losses to the $10k of the thread title, I don't worry about the loss of $10k in the last two weeks because I was up $20k in the first three months and am still up $10k for the year. I would have to lose another $10k to be back to where I was on 12/31/2013, and another 14 tim...
by grap0013
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $10K in my investments past few months
Replies: 36
Views: 4015

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

you certainly can tell a story though, that includes some math and some recent history. I see you have stated the word "math" 7 times. I've got some math for you! :twisted: Growth of 10K since my initial purchase: US VTI (large caps): +41.2% PXSV +52.5% International developed: VEA (large...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2156

Re: EM - Quietly Making a comeback

Here's an interesting article on EM valuations. The best info. is towards the bottom: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/03/invest-in-emerging-markets/ An excerpt: "Emerging market earnings are running a bit above historic averages right now, so their CAPE is around 13. For comparison, the ...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM - Quietly Making a comeback
Replies: 9
Views: 1549

Re: EM - Quietly Making a comeback

Which of these do you own? I don't have DFA access and PXH gets knocked quite a bit for huge tracking error. I had SFENX (Schwab version of PXH) thru a brokerage link for a little while, but then my workplace plan made DFEVX part of the standard investment options so I switched a couple of years ag...
by grap0013
Sat Apr 12, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM - Quietly Making a comeback
Replies: 9
Views: 1549

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

nedsaid wrote:Keep thinking and keep posting.


+1. I enjoy your posts berntson.
by grap0013
Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2317

Re: EM - Quietly Making a comeback

Since 3/21/14 (3 weeks time): DFEVX (emerging markets) = +7.9% VSIAX (domestic SCV) = -3.7% PXH (Fundamental EM) = +11.0% Those are some pretty large spreads for only 3 weeks. It does indeed look like EM large caps have some positive momentum and US small cap stocks have negative momentum. Fun to wa...
by grap0013
Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM - Quietly Making a comeback
Replies: 9
Views: 1549

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

RNJ wrote:99 stocks?


+1. What more is there to say?
by grap0013
Fri Apr 11, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 20
Views: 814

Re: The case against small cap value

I do think that small and value are a good bet! The chart doesn't come with error bars, though, so we have to read it with "fuzzy" statistical glasses. 65% is really probably more like 55%-75%. So a cautious investor will think that the historic results are consistent with value having on...
by grap0013
Fri Apr 11, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5052

Re: The case against small cap value

This chart compares large value returns to large total market returns, but it makes roughly the same point. In any single year, the odds of large value beating the total market are basically a coin flip, with a slight bias in favor of large value. Over time, the small edge adds up. This is one reas...
by grap0013
Thu Apr 10, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5052

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and Myopic Loss Aversion

The result has been rather good, if not spectacular. In effect, I have trained myself to look forward to days with big losses. They turn out to be days of fun and ultimately profit. And that has washed any bone of loss aversion out of my body for good. This fact that I now lack the loss aversion ge...
by grap0013
Thu Apr 10, 2014 12:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and Myopic Loss Aversion
Replies: 4
Views: 459

Re: BH Greatest Hits: PE10 predicitive power

If we combine the two adjustments of 1 for the lower dividend payout and 4 for the FSB 142 change, the current CAPE 10 at 24.9 which looks way above the mean, doesn’t look so overvalued at a now 19.9. In fact, that’s right about in line with it’s average since 1960. Which begs the questions: a) Are...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 09, 2014 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BH Greatest Hits: PE10 predictive power
Replies: 39
Views: 2635

Re: Quality premium is global

Second, RAFI thesis is that the stocks that are most overvalued will have the highest weighting in market cap portfolio. But that idea is nonsense as it doesn't have to be that way at all. It could be for example that the small stocks are the most overvalued---as they were in the bubble in 1983, an...
by grap0013
Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality premium is global
Replies: 13
Views: 1106

Re: Quality premium is global

grap The Rafi indices have the advantage of multiple value screens, but there are several other negatives---besides I don't like the whole concept of "fundamental" or footprints--the idea that the most overpriced stocks will have the highest weighting is just wrong--it doesn't have to be ...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 07, 2014 10:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality premium is global
Replies: 13
Views: 1106

Re: Quality premium is global

I'm giving this dead horse a few more whacks. If you want access to all these premiums one should buy fundamental indexes. Prior to the 2012 profitability paper, many said, "fundamental indexes just aren't valuey enough". Turns out the profitability premium was dressed in alpha drag. You d...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality premium is global
Replies: 13
Views: 1106

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

I love these threads. While one day, they may be right, most of the time they are good indicators to buy. I am submitting an exchange order to buy right now in an IRA: From 100% short-term bonds to 100% Total Int'l Stock Market. Hmmmm...I also see a parallel here. Things are going well and OP does ...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11309

Re: The case against small cap value

OP, since you had to ask you are not ready to tilt. I don't believe you will have enough conviction to hold on. Here's my personal 2010 post about tilting: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=59145 Also, please note that one has to be willing to wait 20+ years for tilting to wor...
by grap0013
Fri Apr 04, 2014 3:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5052

Re: What age did you reach 100K networth?

-200k+ @ 26

0k @ 30

100k @ 31


300k+ @ 33

Ride the exponential growth.
by grap0013
Fri Apr 04, 2014 3:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age did you reach 100K networth?
Replies: 264
Views: 31071

Re: (Lack of) Emergency Fund - Are We Crazy?

I'd maybe keep a few more grand around in case of an expensive car repair, or a medium sized home repair, just because it would be a pain to sell the stock and deal with capital gains. But you're not being reckless. if you need money within 2 weeks you can get it and you have a buffer in the event ...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 28, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Lack of) Emergency Fund - Are We Crazy?
Replies: 44
Views: 3426

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Jfet wrote:VWO at $40.50 and IEMG at $49. 10% moves off of Feb lows. Livesoft must be happy.


Am I just bad at math or are you rounding up a bit? I see 2/3/14 thru 3/27/14 a gain of 7.1% for VWO
by grap0013
Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 125
Views: 13143

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Not troubling at all. The only number that matters is how much a fund trails its benchmark by. VBR has done a very good job of tracking its underlying index.
by grap0013
Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 11
Views: 1315

Re: EM - Quietly Making a comeback

My point was that in Feb, there were MANY threads warning to trim EM exposure, or people afraid to rebalance in, or people trying to time with $36 price targets etc. Seems that was just noise. Still, I wonder who bailed on EM or trimmed as a result... Bogleheads are NOT immune to the failings of ps...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM - Quietly Making a comeback
Replies: 9
Views: 1549

Re: EM - Quietly Making a comeback

What do you get for that same date range with DFEVX or PXH?

Or better yet? How about from 04/30/2011? :)
by grap0013
Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM - Quietly Making a comeback
Replies: 9
Views: 1549

Re: "Emerging markets: Is the volatility contagious?'

I don't disagree with a strategy of market weighting. My thought was simply to sound caution about assertions that 'EM are cheap'. Underlying that are 2 (3?) assumptions: 1. the PE will rise 2. the earnings growth will be good 3. the market has not correctly valued EM stocks in some way. Agreed for...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Emerging markets: Is the volatility contagious?"
Replies: 15
Views: 1189

Re: "Emerging markets: Is the volatility contagious?'

Maybe it's all in the PE. But it's a long way from saying these markets are 'cheap' on a PE basis to spinning a credible story why that should change. One does not even need a story. We have 26 years of quality EM data. Large blend EM has bested TSM by about 2.5% annualized over that period. So let...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Emerging markets: Is the volatility contagious?"
Replies: 15
Views: 1189

Re: "Emerging markets: Is the volatility contagious?'

In this article at Barron's, Sauter is quoted as saying , "Emerging-markets valuations are appealing -- not as appealing as they were in 2003, but they're OK. At the same time, my bet is everything muddles through, and developed markets are just fine as well. Again, there is no correlation bet...
by grap0013
Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Emerging markets: Is the volatility contagious?"
Replies: 15
Views: 1189

Re: Small-Cap Value Premium? Vanguard Europe says, "No"

I'm not surprised by the answer. You can't drink Coca Cola for 40 years and then one day pick up a Pepsi.
by grap0013
Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Premium? Vanguard Europe says, "No"
Replies: 3
Views: 725

Re: An improvement on the Fama French model

I am a firm believer in the small-value premium for the long run, however the difficulty for most is being able to stay in that asset class for stretches when they underperform cap weighted. That group has had a solid run for quite a while now, but I just don't see the value in them today. Well, co...
by grap0013
Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An improvement on the Fama French model
Replies: 47
Views: 2968

Re: An improvement on the Fama French model

I'm not saying this is all bunk, but personally I think a healthy dose of caution is in order. I really don't see much downside here. For instance, even if one invests entirely in small cap growth you'll likely still make money off your investments if you stick with it through thick and thin. As us...
by grap0013
Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An improvement on the Fama French model
Replies: 47
Views: 2968

Re: An improvement on the Fama French model

Ignore the MFS returns as they were placed in the graph to get a long enough growth chart). Since Small beats Large came into prominence we can see that small has underperformed as seen by the benchmark returns. Some are going to argue that the time line is not long enough or that I cherry picked d...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An improvement on the Fama French model
Replies: 47
Views: 2968

Re: An improvement on the Fama French model

A major question for investors is whether having a better model for explaining returns leads to any useful advice for portfolio construction. I think so. If you can load on profitability for example, you can possibly get ever better risk adjusted returns and less tracking error to boot. Why do you ...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An improvement on the Fama French model
Replies: 47
Views: 2968

Re: An improvement on the Fama French model

richard wrote:A major question for investors is whether having a better model for explaining returns leads to any useful advice for portfolio construction.


I think so. If you can load on profitability for example, you can possibly get ever better risk adjusted returns and less tracking error to boot.
by grap0013
Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An improvement on the Fama French model
Replies: 47
Views: 2968

Re: An improvement on the Fama French model

Thanks for sharing. Can you dumb this down for me? "What’s more, they found that “the lethal combination for microcaps is low profitability and high investment; low profitability alone doesn’t appear to be a problem.”" Also, what are they referring to when they say"high" vs. &quo...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An improvement on the Fama French model
Replies: 47
Views: 2968

Re: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?

Tilting to value doesn't improve diversification; it's just as likely to lose when growth outperforms value as to gain when value outperforms growth. Similarly for US small-cap, at least in a US-centered portfolio. In contrast, I would expect that overweighting emerging markets, international small...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1445

Re: Higher Returns at Lower Risk - please comment

I'd appreciate any feedback on the document in general and in particular to the following issues: - departure from the broadly-diversified, market cap-weighted model Many people do depart from cap weights whether they know it or not - the synergy between stocks and bonds I think this is known as th...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher Returns at Lower Risk - please comment
Replies: 55
Views: 5207

Re: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?

grabiner wrote:I am willing to pay more for a diversification benefit.


I think this is an excellent point. Even if the tilts do not outperform over the long haul, there is still great value when they are zigging while other holdings are zagging. It helps smooth out both short and long term returns.
by grap0013
Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1445

Re: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?

That was just a back of the envelope estimate. I judge the odds of large and growth beating small and value over the long-term and across international markets to be roughly equal to the odds of small and value beating large and growth by, say, double the long-term average. So the two more or less ...
by grap0013
Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1445

Re: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?

I'd pay up to 0.5% US and 0.75% international developed or emerging markets. I arrived at my limits by simple rounding and using the eyeball test to determine what feels about right. A good SCV EM fund has A LOT higher expected return than something like VWO. I have no regrets about ponying up a lit...
by grap0013
Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1445

Re: 1st time car buyer - complicated situation

I always see all these posts about buying cars. You could read them all or just listen to me. I tried a bunch of stuff and ultimately listened to my father-in-law and bought a car through the Costco Auto Program. Just call them up. Saved me $1600 compared to best dealership price. Easy and cost effe...
by grap0013
Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 1st time car buyer - complicated situation
Replies: 12
Views: 856

Re: Where do you keep intermediate-term holdings?

Hence, I'd do anywhere from 30-100% stocks and fixed income as munis. Dump all dividends into money market and use them to help maintain allocation. Which stock funds would you recommend for this purpose? Is a tax-managed index fund the way to go, or is a simple total-market approach sufficient? Pl...
by grap0013
Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you keep intermediate-term holdings?
Replies: 8
Views: 952

Re: Bonds and International - Advice

I agree with Valuethinker to keep it simple and that you want your bonds to go up during stock crises. With a stock allocation as high as yours I would use IEF. Go to morningstar.com and graph some different bond funds in their 2008 performance. It is very telling. During crashes treasuries are your...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds and International - Advice
Replies: 5
Views: 362

Re: RAFI Large Value

I agree that the large cap fund looks much cheaper. However, some smart guy at DFA has shown it to be impossible to time premiums. Also, I'm wondering what you would do with this info. logistically. Most people like to pair up their SCV with either TSM or S&P 500. I guess you could do RAFI large...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Large Value
Replies: 7
Views: 572

Re: Where do you keep intermediate-term holdings?

It depends on whether you have needs or wants in the intermediate future. If it's a want you can be more aggressive. IMO, you should have at least 30% stocks to maintain purchasing power/potential bond losses. If you look at rolling 5 year periods for equity allocations even the worst 5 year periods...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you keep intermediate-term holdings?
Replies: 8
Views: 952

Re: Turn spare change into big bucks?

I would not pay for this. This is just mental accounting. Much better to educate people on the big financial suckers like houses and cars. Now those expenses saved really add up. I also like emerging doc's take: one should rent most toys rather than buy such as boats, cabins, etc...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turn spare change into big bucks?
Replies: 29
Views: 2213

Re: Emerging market large: cap weighting vs. fundamental

A problem is the ETF has had horrible tracking error to its index: It's behind almost 2% annualized. I think they have resolved this issue by changing their rebalancing methodology. There is a nice paper on the technique floating around somewhere. 5 year tracking error is terrible, but 3 year and 1...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market large: cap weighting vs. fundamental
Replies: 7
Views: 803

Re: Emerging market large: cap weighting vs. fundamental

The challenge with these emerging market "value" stocks is that even if their intrinsic value is way above current market prices, it may not be the shareholders who benefit. Gazprom's own history is one in which assets have been confiscated or parceled out in an unequitable fashion. Or lo...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market large: cap weighting vs. fundamental
Replies: 7
Views: 803

Re: How do I stop worrying about money?

To the money OCD folks: Spend some legitimate time in a 3rd world country and you will come back deeply embarrassed by your previous feelings. You'll be saying things like, "why the he** was I obsessing about a 3% vs. 3.5% withdrawal rate on my 2 million dollar portfolio?!?!" And don't jus...
by grap0013
Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I stop worrying about money?
Replies: 66
Views: 5568

Re: How do I stop worrying about money?

Are you sure? Sometimes I come off the site feeling more neurotic that I'm not saving enough, not investing enough, my returns aren't good enough. :oops: Then I look around in the real world and find that I am the anamoly, my peers at the same level of income and age - are no where near me - I woul...
by grap0013
Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I stop worrying about money?
Replies: 66
Views: 5568

Emerging market large: cap weighting vs. fundamental

Here's some background for you if you don't already know it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamentally_based_indexes The first fundamental emerging market (EM) index came on to the scene in late 2007. The makers of these indexes heavily touted how they have obliterated cap weighted EM funds in the ...
by grap0013
Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market large: cap weighting vs. fundamental
Replies: 7
Views: 803

Re: RAFI Intl. Country Rebalancing

SFNNX seems to be basically the same as PXF -same past performance- but with a lower expense ratio, 0.34%. Any reason to NOT go with Schwab? I just looked at it in the context of my 401k (Fidelity/BrokerageLink), which is where my EFV holdings are. And... ouch... $49 transaction fee... Gives me col...
by grap0013
Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Intl. Country Rebalancing
Replies: 13
Views: 2575
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