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Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

the bond fund zigged up more than individual bonds This is just plain wrong. Individual bonds move just the same as a fund. The only case might be a CD with an early redemption penalty, but a secondary market CD would have no such penalty. Note also that the current yield curve reflects all the inf...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3001

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

I ran a spreadsheet on this topic a while ago. Once you get to 25% of final goal the difference in retirement age only moved by 3 years for me with a 50% savings rate vs a 0% savings rate. OP, if you really want to coast then get to 25%. 25% of final goal at what age? I imagine it would make a big ...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 57
Views: 6856

Re: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coas

I ran a spreadsheet on this topic a while ago. Once you get to 25% of final goal the difference in retirement age only moved by 3 years for me with a 50% savings rate vs a 0% savings rate. OP, if you really want to coast then get to 25%.
by grap0013
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can You Build Your Retirement Portfolio Young, then Coast?
Replies: 57
Views: 6856

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

Haven't you asked this before? Use 5 year treasuries. Expected return of that portfolio ~1 or 2% real. Not scary if that's all you need and you want huge downside protection.
by grap0013
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3001

Re: Key to happintess in retirement.

200 hours is only 4 per week. No wonder Americans are so darn unhappy while still working: we do it 2000++ hours per year. I don't see a :D in your post, but I still laughed anyway. Another way of looking at it is, "we are all working 10X more than we want to". Maybe when the workweek was...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Key to happiness in retirement
Replies: 36
Views: 3665

Re: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV

I've pretty much thought this was the case, but I find it frustrating when I see funds or ETFs being compared solely on the basis of their HML loading while some of these funds have intentionally selected their stocks based on multiple value criteria. I guess I can understand the convenience of sti...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV
Replies: 31
Views: 2463

Re: Angry when stock market is down

I disagree with the replies saying to not check the markets on a daily basis. The OP needs to confront reality, not ignore it. REITs, for example, are one of the more volatile asset classes (or sub-classes). So you're going to see a lot of movement in REIT prices whenever theres any news on interes...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 3975

New Morningstar App: How to Edit Number of Shares Owned?

Does anyone know how you can edit the number of shares you own in the new Morningstar app for iphones? I've played around with this thing for some time and for the life of me, I can't figure it out. It was super easy with the previous Morningstar version. If not, can you direct me to a place where I...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Morningstar App: How to Edit Number of Shares Owned?
Replies: 0
Views: 90

Re: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?

What the single riskiest asset that Bogleheads advocate? Is it SV mutual funds? I hope everyone sees that this thread is a little over 1 year old. The "single riskiest asset that Bogleheads advocate" is that which someone buys/owns but doesn't really understand - this, regardless if Bogle...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the riskiest Bogleheadish asset?
Replies: 81
Views: 7028

Re: The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing

I haven't read the former, but have read the latter. I find in amateur "volley type" sports one wins by simply returning the shot. This is true in volleyball, tennis, ping pong, badmitten etc... Volleyball is the hard one because it's a team sport. Every amateur volleyball team has a coupl...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Inner Game of Tennis and Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 645

Re: 25 Years 55 to 80 Thanks Boggleheads and Vanguard

^Trying to get rid of your wife and play more golf eh Livesoft? :twisted:
by grap0013
Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 25 Years 55 to 80 Thanks Boggleheads and Vanguard
Replies: 6
Views: 1326

Re: The importance of discipline

To put it another way, consider the "meta-strategy" of changing your strategy every five years to the best-practice strategies of the day . (For example, following Burton Malkiel, allocating 15% of your equity allocation to international in 1990, and 50% to international in 2011). That's ...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The importance of discipline
Replies: 19
Views: 1362

Re: Should you care about risk-adjusted returns?

+1 to the OP. Easy example: In the US, small caps have had higher returns than large caps historically, but they are very similar from a risk adjusted perspective (accounting for short term volatility). However, once you add in an element of time such as holding period things get interesting. Small ...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you care about risk-adjusted returns?
Replies: 13
Views: 799

Re: Warning level

In looking at my profile I see there is a warning level, but I don't know what the number means. How many warning levels are there and what does each level mean? Thanks in advance, BobK Probably because you keep touting 105% stocks around here. :D FWIW, I think your warning level should be 1.05 You...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Warning level
Replies: 39
Views: 2275

Re: Modulating The Larry Portfolio

As I recall Grap, you use a LP with 100 percent equities. I don't think I quite have the courage for that. :) Some may call it foolishness rather than courage! :) I have my head wrapped around it and I actually believe maximizing factor loads makes one's profolio less risky due to the much lower co...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modulating The Larry Portfolio
Replies: 34
Views: 2263

Re: Modulating The Larry Portfolio

Robert's view is that he wants to target a factor loading of .2 in Small and .4 in Value. He then says that his objective is to target those loadings with as low cost as possible. (Now, as you say, he is involved with considering the MOM factor which would lead us to another level of complexity.) I...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modulating The Larry Portfolio
Replies: 34
Views: 2263

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

OP,

Since you sold low that tells me you do not likely have a high risk tolerance. I think you should do 50% stocks at maximum. Maybe 50:50 allocation? It's a nice agnostic approach.
by grap0013
Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 77
Views: 5889

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

So many Bogleheads think 100% equity is just fine and not that risky, but all have discovered that 105% is just too risky. Why do you think that? Even "conservative" Bogleheads often have far more than 105% in equities. See my above post. If it were true that many conservative Bogleheads ...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5341

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I'm not sure who these "many people" are, but the most thoughtful all-stock investors aren't opposed to in principle to borrowing money to buy stocks. They've just looked at the risk/reward characteristics of moving from 100% to 105% stocks and discovered that it's not the same risk/rewar...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5341

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Purchasing an indexed call contract involves no borrowing of money. Why not go from 100% to 105% stocks by investing 98% in stocks and 2% in indexed stock call options. What is the big extra risk here? The worst that can happen to the options is that they expire worthless and your portfolio is down...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 03, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5341

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I have trouble understanding why those who believe 100% allocation to stocks is a good idea, wouldn't also believe that investing more than 100% would be an even better idea. So why don't we see threads advocating 105% or 110% stocks? Where is the magic in 100%? If you think holding 100% equities i...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5341

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I'm gonna keep going 100% for 6 or 7 more years just to prove it can be done even with high account balances. That strikes me as a very odd reason to be 100% equities. I'm an odd sort of guy. Ho ho. That's why I'm not average and can hold 100% equities! Thinking about holding some bonds makes my st...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5341

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I was 100% stocks for almost 25 years, finally backing off in late 2007. I would do it again if I became 25 years younger. I won't ridicule those that choose otherwise. I don't know why people feel the need to deride the 100%-ers. 100% stocks for 25 years and then sold high perfectly at the top?! :...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5341

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I've been 100% stocks since 2006. I think this board naturally draws more conservative type folks. Most people respond to an OP based on their own personal risk tolerance rather than the poster in question. Just because 100% stocks is not right for you , does not mean it is not right for someone els...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5341

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

^ Ha ha! Thanks for the chuckle!
by grap0013
Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 132
Views: 12223

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

^ That's such an intelligent post you may not get any responses, but I will try. :-) I think basically Robert T is saying that the more prices are "misaligned" from historic norms, the more that PXSV will load up on what's cheap relative to other investment options. Buy low, sell high at i...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 132
Views: 12223

Re: Is it worth tilting to International Small Cap?

I agree with Livesoft. Half my stocks are international; half my stocks are small-cap. I'm choosing to increase the tilt over time -- as I ramp down my equity percentage overall I maintain the same percentage in small-cap. By the time I retire all my equities will be small-cap. Thanks, Larry. Why n...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 22, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it worth tilting to International Small Cap?
Replies: 18
Views: 1987

Re: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week

caklim00, I trade so little that I am too lazy to switch to a no fee broker. I think I spent $14 in fees last year with 2 trades. Another broker would be one more log-in with another password.... grabiner, Very nicely detailed explanation. Thank you! Robert T, Thanks for the additional insights on f...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week
Replies: 16
Views: 1183

Re: Defining "Stay the Course"

But I just had a job-related life event that suddenly changed my risk profile. As a result, I moved my 4% allocation of High Yield bond fund to intermediate bonds. So, did I stay the course? No, now you must say 20 "Our Bogle who art......"s as pentance. Then and only then, may you resume...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "Stay the Course"
Replies: 41
Views: 3737

Re: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week

So that was you on August 4? You singlehandedly upped the average daily trading volume by a significant amount and fooled me. I now see that the daily trading volume can be a mere pittance. I retract what I wrote before about this thing lasting 5 years. It will be gone sooner. 5 years from today or...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week
Replies: 16
Views: 1183

Re: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week

So, I finally made the jump from VBR to PXSV in my IRAs this week. PXSV has trailed VBR this year, so figured this would be a good time to pull the trigger especially since the fee waiver was extended another year. +1 I will be buying a large chunk of this in the next couple of months. Does Vanguar...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week
Replies: 16
Views: 1183

Re: Market valuation analysis

It's r^2 value is about 0.43 so we shouldn't expect it to be super accurate, but that's still better than the 0.38 of PE1. A difference of 0.05 is pretty meaningless IMO. Some posters go to great lengths to obtain PE10s of foreign countries in particular. Why?! Just go to Vanguard's website and you...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market valuation analysis
Replies: 36
Views: 1731

Re: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

I use EEMS in my taxable account. I used to hold EWX, but it distributed a lot of taxable capital gains, which made it a poor choice for the taxable account. EEMS has never distributed a gain. Yes, it has low volume, but that doesn't matter as much for a long-term holding. ETF.com says that the ave...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 8
Views: 1028

Re: Going 60+% international? (US resident)

I thought about switching from 50:50 to 40:60 a while ago until I did a back of the napkin calculation. Let's be honest, best we can do is make some crude estimates. Trailing PE1: VTI: 20.8 (US) VEA: 18.4 (dev int. ex. US) VWO: 14.5 (emerging) Taking 1/PE for real expected return at 50:25:25 allocat...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going 60+% international? (US resident)
Replies: 83
Views: 6022

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

The argument that the small and value tilts multiply and make SV better than combinations of LV and SB does not mean you should put everything in SV. It just means you bias SV. For the same reason that stocks outperform bonds does not make 100% stocks optimal, nor does the reason that SV outperform...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 624
Views: 214043

Re: favorite bogleheads posts?

The locked threads by stlutz on DCA and Value Here's stlutz on small cap value: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=96441 I link this thread a couple of times per year and every time I reread it I still laugh. Hilarious! TrevH's slices is my second favorite: http://www.boglehea...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: favorite bogleheads posts?
Replies: 53
Views: 5090

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Hmm, maybe the presence of lower cost, better performing alternatives? PXSV lifetime to date vs Vanguard SV (I'll use investor shares to give PXSV a little break): I have a pretty high tolerance for annoying posts, but your uninformed axe grinding is starting to make my right eye twitch. It is trol...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 132
Views: 12223

Re: The ultimate Boglehead exercise

I am partial to the following exercise. Begin by standing on a comfortable surface, where you have plenty of room on each side. With a 5-lb potato bag in each hand, extend your arms straight out from your sides. Hold them there as long as you can. Try to reach a full minute, and then relax. Each da...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The ultimate Boglehead exercise
Replies: 30
Views: 3833

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Multi-factor value sort with a backdoor load on profitability thru P/CF and P/E. It even has a Price/5 year "value" component that PE10 folks can appreciate. What's not to like? Here's what I don't understand. Wbern has written positively about this fund in a book. Rick Ferri has openly ap...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 132
Views: 12223

Reverse Savings Rates

HomerJ got me thinking. He always states to save 1/2 of every raise until you have a really high savings rate. Seems great, but your highest percentage will presumably be when you are older and then you get the least bang for your buck from a time perspective. I'm proposing flipping this tactic on i...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Savings Rates
Replies: 5
Views: 1025

Re: I'm a genius!

Well said. Simple and straight forward. I also like you 50:50 allocation advice and save 1/2 of raises posts. Basic stuff that works.

I'm gonna start a new thread on reverse savings rates. I hope you comment!
by grap0013
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm a genius!
Replies: 19
Views: 5227

Re: a close look at value and momentum

William Sharpe: There is a rule in real estate that the three most important things are location, location, location. My rule in investments is that the three most important things are diversify, diversify, diversify. And then I’ll give you three more: keep costs low, keep costs low, keep costs low...
by grap0013
Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 18355

Re: Post your Morningstar Box Style

RunningRad wrote:14-11-08
11-09-06
23-13-05

US Stocks- 37%
Intl stock-25%
Bonds-33%
Cash/other-5%


Not that it's a competition....... :) , but how'd you get more in the little box on the bottom left than me? RZV?
by grap0013
Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Post your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 25
Views: 2108

Re: Post your Morningstar Box Style

100% equity since 2007

50:25:25 split US:international dev:EM Same ratios since August 2010.

08-06-05
16-15-09
22-15-05
by grap0013
Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Post your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 25
Views: 2108

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

^ You lost me with 2 decimal place allocations. We are not cooking meth here. Probably more art involved than science in investing.
by grap0013
Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 624
Views: 214043

Re: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds

Isn't there some poll that shows something like 30% of bogleheads shortened their duration? I remember thinking :shock: Also, to note, the highest slope on the yield curve over the past several years has been around the 10 year duration mark. Using Larry Swedroe's 20 basis point rule you would've be...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds
Replies: 152
Views: 11212
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