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Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

Futures show opening of better than 1%. This week shows the interaction of a Fed meeting, a Putin news conference, drop in oil prices, Cuba things, dividend distributions, and tax-loss harvesting. So what are you going to buy at the open? Nothing. All my accounts are maxed out for the year! However...
by grap0013
Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 35
Views: 2870

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

RGD today. :sharebeer ^ You beat me to it! :) I predict another RGD today. Or maybe it's actually a RBD because I want to buy more cheap shares as I'm a reasonably young accumulator. I'm so confused. :) It reminds me of playing Widow Whist (card game) with my 8 and 6 yo kids. Recently we've changed...
by grap0013
Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 35
Views: 2870

Re: Does it matter where you refill an RX.....

sent you a PM...
by grap0013
Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does it matter where you refill an RX.....
Replies: 4
Views: 868

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

Russia's large cap ETF RSX dropped 11.84% yesterday. :shock:

One of its top holdings Gazprom now has a PE <2. Fun to look at its top 25 holdings on Morningstar.....
by grap0013
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 35
Views: 2870

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

I think VWO should be renamed VWOE to properly reflect its role in investor portfolios as of late. I am finally done with this clunker ... for the next 30 days. I was secretly hoping that its replacement was more auspicious, but so far not good. ^lol Although we don't have much data for EMs, the wo...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 35
Views: 2870

Re: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

The currency markets were crazy today. In reality internationals and emerging have lost only 0.5% last night in their own exchanges. Something tells me, emerging markets will pull back strongly next year, since only 15% of its index depend on oil with Russia, Nigeria and UAE being the players. For ...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 35
Views: 2870

RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing

Livesoft said an RBD was likely today in emerging markets and with some negative momentum it looks like we are heading that way. I've seen a couple of other threads where he has correctly called a daily move in this asset class as well. 100% accuracy. :-) Livesoft, care to give us a number for total...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD in Emerging Markets Brewing
Replies: 35
Views: 2870

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I tilt and it is no different than my view on stocks vs. bonds. However, I take no issue with anyone else's strategy. The most important key to any strategy is to stay the course. I also see a lot of posters stating they do not tilt because they do not have a long enough time horizon to see the bene...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 114
Views: 7683

Re: Int'l small value exposure without the negative MOM?

I like PDN or SFILX. DLS only tilts value thru dividends and history shows this is the weakest value metric. Plus dividends are currently in vogue. I could easily see there being a dividend value bubble relative to other value parameters. Much better to spread out your value metric tilts IMO.
by grap0013
Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int'l small value exposure without the negative MOM?
Replies: 18
Views: 1957

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

I looked at this stuff a few more hours and could not come to any more meaningful conclusions. Hence, I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I purged my entire DFA value fund and placed it into my brokerage account yesterday. Today I am topping off SFILX, sold SFSNX and replaced the entire amount w...
by grap0013
Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2104

Re: Help with choosing funds!

I need more info to give good advice. Is this a retirement account? What type?
by grap0013
Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with choosing funds!
Replies: 18
Views: 512

Re: To Tilt or Not To Tilt, that's the question

I would consider "don't tilt now, think it over and consider tilting later." I concur. Since you are new to investing you need to make sure you understand more before jumping into anything. I spent several months reading before seriously commiting to tilting. Tilting is kinda like marriag...
by grap0013
Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not To Tilt, that's the question
Replies: 52
Views: 2383

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

For the past 3 years ending 10/31/14: SFILX: +10.17% Index: +11.06% = 0.89% difference With an ER of 0.5% (although I think it was slightly decreased within this period) you lose 0.39% to frictional costs (not terrible really) For the past 3 years ending 9/30/14: PDN only trailed its index by 0.52% ...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2104

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

I appreciate the replies. Very nice links by lazyday as well. Here's a very nice article I found on the free float issue of RAFI EM: http://www.etf.com/sections/features/16266-rafi-corrects-statements-on-em-backtests.html?showall=&fullart=1 It appears the change to fix it took place in March 201...
by grap0013
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2104

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

livesoft wrote:I just don't know, but I guess you are staying the course, so to speak, which has to be good, right?


I'm bound and determined to get some EM value $$. :-)
by grap0013
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2104

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

DFEVX was being changed to DFCEX (DFA emerging core) Ugh. Note that SFENX hasn't done a good job following it's index(es). You can find this on the Schwab website. Some people like PXH, and I think it's done ok compared to index in last 3 years, but not over the life of the fund. I posted about tra...
by grap0013
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2104

A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

My employer added DFEVX (DFA's emerging value fund) to our standard 403B options about 3-4 years ago. I have happily used this fund for the bulk of my EM exposure (+ a little DGS in a Roth) during this time. Wouldn't you know it but I just received some snail mail stating DFEVX was being changed to ...
by grap0013
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2104

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

30 years of data. Data from before the effect is first published doesn't count. (Well, you can count it, but I am pretty sure every active fund backtested really well, so why in the world are you indexing?) And those 30 years of data suggest that there is no outperformance. Much like most of these ...
by grap0013
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7188

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

I suspect some investors who believe in simplicity ("buy TSM and forget about it") would like to believe that tilting doesn't add to your returns. +1 Emphasis mine. This is an important point. Lots of psychology involved here. Evidence always trumps "feelings" in my book.
by grap0013
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7188

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

I'm sure grap0013 understands exactly what he invests in. Probably, I guess I'm not in a position to know. I think I've got a pretty good handle on my strategy. He he he. Actually more importantly is that I've had the same asset allocation without making any changes for 4+ years. Although I think k...
by grap0013
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7188

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

Don't worry, I am not making that mistake. I am fully aware that P/B is at least as accurate as P/E, and that people don't like RZV because of "negative momentum", but it looks like the other small value companies are even less desirable compared to the S&P. I expect these companies a...
by grap0013
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7188

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

Exactly! I was just contemplating becoming a small cap value investor. I was looking at valuations as a starting point. Here is where they stand now for RZV, the smallest and valuest of them all: Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund ETF (VOO) price/earnings 18.43 Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600® Pure Va...
by grap0013
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7188

Re: RAFI vs. DFA

ralph124cf wrote:I'm not sure I understand your comment about having to pay an advisor to buy DFA funds. I have access to do DFA funds in my 401(k) with no restrictions, and I have no advisor.

Ralph


Most people do not have DFA funds in their workplace retirement plans. You are lucky.
by grap0013
Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI vs. DFA
Replies: 127
Views: 23760

Re: RAFI vs. DFA

Hard to see much overcrowding here. If anything, the value stocks are getting cheaper relative to growth stocks. Maybe there are other objective, concrete ways of measuring the overcrowding? Fund inflows or something? +1 International value looks cheap as well. Definitely no overcrowding there. EM ...
by grap0013
Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI vs. DFA
Replies: 127
Views: 23760

Re: RAFI vs. DFA

You can't draw a conclusion from the DFA versus RAFI data because they have different value weights and track different value factors. One year DFA's value factor might outperform RAFI and the next year RAFI's multi-factor value strategy may outperform DFA. No one can tell which value factor will o...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI vs. DFA
Replies: 127
Views: 23760

Re: Small cap value premium

I'd say there's at least a 60% chance (over any period) that behavioral errors like performance chasing will lead to people underperforming a "Total Stock Market" index fund. 10+ year periods where "Small-Cap Value" underperforms shouldn't be hard to imagine http://i61.tinypic.c...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 14223

Re: RAFI vs. DFA

^ Thanks Robert! I also ran one from 7/1/11 when PXSV changed to using Fundamental methodology: http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y&includeBondFactors=false&includeQualityFactor=false&startDate=07%2F01%2F2011&regressionType=1&symbols=PRFZ+DFSVX+DTMVX+PXSV+VSIAX...
by grap0013
Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI vs. DFA
Replies: 127
Views: 23760

Re: Small cap value premium

In their paper, "Volatility and Preimiums in US Equity Returns", Fama and French state that there is a 6.1% probability of a negative value premium over the next 25 years. I've said in other threads that one should think of tilting as having about 60/40 odds. Where do you come down? Best,...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 14223

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

Into Thin Air Into the Wild If you like those you will love "Miracle in the Andes" http://www.amazon.com/Miracle-Andes-Days-Mountain-Long/dp/140009769X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1416950786&sr=8-1&keywords=miracle+in+the+andes&pebp=1416950790137 Please note the 5 out of 5 star...
by grap0013
Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 117
Views: 9606

Re: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

I still think tilting in the EM arena is worth it. EEMS has done a better job of tracking its index than DGS as of late. It is also smaller and has more favorable P/B and P/CF metrics. P/CF is a moderate proxy for a profitability tilt which is a good thing. Maybe people are paying too much for the d...
by grap0013
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 13
Views: 1965

Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

Yes what about PE1 though? It's currently at 20.3 for VTI. The difference between r2 for PE10 and PE1 = 0.05

I repeat 0.05

Which one is right this time?

Maybe I'll just buy some PXH with a PE1 of 9.
by grap0013
Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1554

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

1 - Develop a workable Plan: 10 2 - Invest early and often: 10 3 - Just enough risk: 10 (based on my own definition) 4 - Diversify: 10 (once again, according to me) 5 - Don't time the market: 10 6 - Index: 10 (passive = index in my book for all intensive purposes) 7 - Keep costs low: 10 (I have the ...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 120
Views: 7502

Re: Small cap value premium

Either way, I don't see the next 15 years providing the returns of the past 15 years. Buyers of these strategies will have to be extra patient for their excess return going forward. Rick Ferri Heck one has to be patient with any strategy. Emerging markets have been pretty stagnant the last 7 years....
by grap0013
Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 14223

Re: Small cap value premium

YDNAL wrote:Sure, in detail to the point it is nauseating.


Yet here you are responding in this thread. :wink: I'm guilty of it too, I just can't stop myself from clicking in here. :sharebeer
by grap0013
Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 14223

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

25% SCV
12.5% dev int SCV
12.5% EMSCV
50% 5 year treasuries

Keep the allocation the same and spend 4% nominal annually.

This puppy is bulletproof. It does not need to be fancy.
by grap0013
Thu Nov 13, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 4105

Re: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Si

You are not missing anything. I think fixed income 100% at 5 year treasuries is the best allocation.

Full disclosure: I don't have any fixed income, but I am a student of financial history. Once I add some fixed income, I will do as stated above.
by grap0013
Thu Nov 13, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Side?
Replies: 40
Views: 3934

Re: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice

livesoft wrote:Volume for PXSV is also too low. Way too low.


Well yeah, don't day trade this etf. The first PXSV in my Roth that I bought in 2012 does not care about low daily volume.
by grap0013
Fri Nov 07, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1046

Re: International Stock Index Potential

I guess since it's cap weighted then Emerging Markets could get really bubbly and start to dominant VXUS. I would think it would be overpriced at that point which sets one up for a crash.
by grap0013
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1689

Re: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice

Neither. Pay the $7 and buy PXSV: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=126899
by grap0013
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1046

Re: investment lessons from QE

Does anyone believe that QE is over? I don't. Look at what the BOJ has started doing - buying stocks now in addition to bonds. Soon others will follow or watch their currencies rise and hurt their global competitiveness. Stay tuned - QE forever. Browser skeptical?! No way! I could've predicted your...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3198

Re: The millionth question about what to do with cash.

Honestly, you should just read this book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/031235 ... 0312353634

A few bucks and a few hours. You'll get all the info. you need to make a good decision.
by grap0013
Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The millionth question about what to do with cash.
Replies: 23
Views: 4178

Re: The millionth question about what to do with cash.

Thanks, great advice. I don't need to withdraw the money to live on for the foreseeable future, but currently I have the cash in a money market fund. I don't want to take the risk of equities with this money, but would like more than a 0 return. Allan 0 return nominal or 0 return real? You sound pr...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The millionth question about what to do with cash.
Replies: 23
Views: 4178

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

In nominal terms since 10/1/2007:

Vanguard total stock market (VTI): +56.4%
Emerging markets (VWO): -2%

That's a relative beating. Keep feeding the beast. It will pay off.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2414

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

The comparison you're making is meaningless. I disagree. Your money has to go somewhere and valuations matter. It's meaningless. I recently bought ~$35 k in a couple emerging markets ETFs yielding about 3%. They are down around 10% now. Yes, valuations do matter. Yes, maybe it is a good time to buy...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2414

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

If VTINX had outperformed Wellington over the past 2 years everybody would've been telling you that you are selling low by making the change. How come nobody wants to sell Wellington high? That's what you are supposed to do at least if you are changing strategies. I personally do not like target dat...
by grap0013
Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 43
Views: 4916

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

EM value funds say Brazil and Russia are cheap.

Any takers on small cap Russia RSXJ? PE ~ 6. Potential annualized returns are 1/6 = 16.7% real..........or maybe $0.
by grap0013
Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2414

Re: Slice & Dice International

Why not just buy sfilx or pdn? These funds have had lower standard deviation than large caps, better returns, and rebalances between countries by itself.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice & Dice International
Replies: 11
Views: 1150

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

John3754 wrote:The comparison you're making is meaningless.


I disagree. Your money has to go somewhere and valuations matter.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2414

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

I love how much belittling I get on this message board. I got a few genuine pieces of advice. Thank you for those. My post seems to be more the butt of jokes. I don't take it personally, but I wish the criticisms has more constructive input. I guess my take away from them should be its too much ris...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 21869
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