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Re: favorite bogleheads posts?

The locked threads by stlutz on DCA and Value Here's stlutz on small cap value: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=96441 I link this thread a couple of times per year and every time I reread it I still laugh. Hilarious! TrevH's slices is my second favorite: http://www.boglehea...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: favorite bogleheads posts?
Replies: 50
Views: 4051

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Hmm, maybe the presence of lower cost, better performing alternatives? PXSV lifetime to date vs Vanguard SV (I'll use investor shares to give PXSV a little break): I have a pretty high tolerance for annoying posts, but your uninformed axe grinding is starting to make my right eye twitch. It is trol...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 98
Views: 8099

Re: The ultimate Boglehead exercise

I am partial to the following exercise. Begin by standing on a comfortable surface, where you have plenty of room on each side. With a 5-lb potato bag in each hand, extend your arms straight out from your sides. Hold them there as long as you can. Try to reach a full minute, and then relax. Each da...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The ultimate Boglehead exercise
Replies: 30
Views: 3776

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Multi-factor value sort with a backdoor load on profitability thru P/CF and P/E. It even has a Price/5 year "value" component that PE10 folks can appreciate. What's not to like? Here's what I don't understand. Wbern has written positively about this fund in a book. Rick Ferri has openly ap...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 98
Views: 8099

Reverse Savings Rates

HomerJ got me thinking. He always states to save 1/2 of every raise until you have a really high savings rate. Seems great, but your highest percentage will presumably be when you are older and then you get the least bang for your buck from a time perspective. I'm proposing flipping this tactic on i...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Savings Rates
Replies: 5
Views: 1011

Re: I'm a genius!

Well said. Simple and straight forward. I also like you 50:50 allocation advice and save 1/2 of raises posts. Basic stuff that works.

I'm gonna start a new thread on reverse savings rates. I hope you comment!
by grap0013
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm a genius!
Replies: 19
Views: 5156

Re: a close look at value and momentum

William Sharpe: There is a rule in real estate that the three most important things are location, location, location. My rule in investments is that the three most important things are diversify, diversify, diversify. And then I’ll give you three more: keep costs low, keep costs low, keep costs low...
by grap0013
Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17349

Re: Post your Morningstar Box Style

RunningRad wrote:14-11-08
11-09-06
23-13-05

US Stocks- 37%
Intl stock-25%
Bonds-33%
Cash/other-5%


Not that it's a competition....... :) , but how'd you get more in the little box on the bottom left than me? RZV?
by grap0013
Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Post your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 25
Views: 2060

Re: Post your Morningstar Box Style

100% equity since 2007

50:25:25 split US:international dev:EM Same ratios since August 2010.

08-06-05
16-15-09
22-15-05
by grap0013
Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Post your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 25
Views: 2060

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

^ You lost me with 2 decimal place allocations. We are not cooking meth here. Probably more art involved than science in investing.
by grap0013
Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 605
Views: 206780

Re: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds

Isn't there some poll that shows something like 30% of bogleheads shortened their duration? I remember thinking :shock: Also, to note, the highest slope on the yield curve over the past several years has been around the 10 year duration mark. Using Larry Swedroe's 20 basis point rule you would've be...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds
Replies: 152
Views: 10458

Re: What emering Market Funds do you like?

I like DGS and PXH.
by grap0013
Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What emering Market Funds do you like?
Replies: 25
Views: 2031

Re: Is now a bad time to invest?

It appears from subsequent posts that Nerdicus invested in Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth, but IWM mentioned earlier in the thread is up over 10% since. Is now a bad time to sell? Heck no! Ride that positive upward momentum premium! Wait, valuations matter so sell! But profitability looks go...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 01, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a bad time to invest?
Replies: 100
Views: 8598

Re: Stock / Bonds Allocation

Age 33 yo 100% stocks since 2006. Planning to add 5% bonds for every million invested with a final target of 50:50 allocation. Not to be cryptic, but we're all just dust in the end anyway. Plus I've had some first hand exposure to 3rd world living. It's just money so I have no problems with big fluc...
by grap0013
Mon Jun 30, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock / Bonds Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2443

Re: Stock / Bonds Allocation

pkcrafter wrote:
Rodc wrote:Am I supposed to calculate this before or after pretending that social security and pensions are bonds? :twisted:

HA! aaaaand a +1

This thread is biased, where are the 100%ers?

Paul


They didn't get past "bonds" in the title. :D
by grap0013
Tue Jun 24, 2014 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock / Bonds Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2443

Re: Reading Bernstein: Is value overvalued?

I think growth is overvalued.

Vanguard small cap growth AUM = 15 billion
Vanguard small cap value AUM = 13.3 billion

Don't let the small sampling size of the bogleheads community fool ya!
by grap0013
Tue Jun 17, 2014 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reading Bernstein: Is value overvalued?
Replies: 38
Views: 3617

Re: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others

Now for my serious (somewhat) answer. Best predictor of future returns are not emotions or Buffett quotes. They are trailing Price to Earnings ratios (PEs). Here are some correlation coefficients based on number of PE years: PE1: 0.36 PE10: 0.41 PE20: 0.6 PE30: 0.8? Therefore, today's current valuat...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 17, 2014 11:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are
Replies: 26
Views: 2807

Re: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others

Clearly, the OP is fearful, so the rest of us can invest. Unfortunately, that does not help the OP with their fears, but it sure helps us. I've seen this same post about the market "being overvalued" or "at all time highs" twice per week since I joined the forum. We Bogleheads w...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 17, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are
Replies: 26
Views: 2807

Re: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX

In this thread , Robert T suggested that the negative momentum loading does not matter much, as it might be counteracted by the "contra trading" that RAFI does, which seems to generate positive alpha. However, I'm not completely sold on positive alpha continuing or contra trading as a lon...
by grap0013
Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX)
Replies: 23
Views: 1494

Re: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX

I have access to mutual funds only in a Fido brokerage account. My SCV preference is PXSV, but I hold ~50K of SFSNX due to ETF restrictions. OP, now you have me thinking...should I swap out SFSNX for QSMLX? I think so...? Only a $500 minimum for QSMLX. I would grap. OT question? I have an account a...
by grap0013
Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX)
Replies: 23
Views: 1494

Re: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX

^ Do you think the equity risk premium is going to be cut in half because people know about it?
by grap0013
Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX)
Replies: 23
Views: 1494

Re: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX

I have access to mutual funds only in a Fido brokerage account. My SCV preference is PXSV, but I hold ~50K of SFSNX due to ETF restrictions. OP, now you have me thinking...should I swap out SFSNX for QSMLX? I think so...? Only a $500 minimum for QSMLX.
by grap0013
Sat Jun 07, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX)
Replies: 23
Views: 1494

Re: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX

Nice analysis although with that granular level of detail it may make one more prone to tinkering. Even different value metrics can have quite different returns for prolonged periods. Is tracking error a concern for you? If not, just dump all of it into PXSV and go play outside.
by grap0013
Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI SV/AQR SC Momentum vs AQR Core (PXSV/ASMOX vs QSMLX)
Replies: 23
Views: 1494

Re: Emerging markets? Small caps? Can they outperform?

1988-2013

Emerging markets outperform total US market by ~1.7%. Geographic premium.

EM is riskier, no doubt. Have to endure long periods of underperformance much like with any asset class such as 1994-2002 and 2007 to current.
by grap0013
Thu Jun 05, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging markets? Small caps? Can they outperform?
Replies: 7
Views: 739

Re: Quality of small-value stocks

OP, let me save you some time. You just want a SCV option that backtests well, is formulaic, has a good number of stocks, and tracks it's underlying index sufficiently. Just buy some PXSV. Done and done. I've already completed all the homework for you. Over both a one year and five year time period...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality of small-value stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2249

Re: Who are the BogleHeads.org heavyweights?

I like grap's tilting advice. Plus he's funny and modest at the same time.
by grap0013
Fri May 30, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Who are the Bogleheads.org heavyweights?
Replies: 127
Views: 8894

Re: Quality of small-value stocks

The Vanguard value index funds are mostly large-caps, and the holdings won't seem as sketchy - their current top holding is Exxon. I would suggest making separate decisions on each premia you want to tilt towards, and use separate funds. Less risk = less reward. I would not use separate funds for e...
by grap0013
Thu May 29, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality of small-value stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2249

Re: Quality of small-value stocks

I like the simplicity of Taylor's portfolio, so no tilting for me. For those that do tilt: Do you believe that "your factors" are inherent/permanent features of the market? If not, what leads you to believe that you will make the correct decision to no longer tilt in that direction at the...
by grap0013
Thu May 29, 2014 11:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality of small-value stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2249

Re: Quality of small-value stocks

OP, let me save you some time. You just want a SCV option that backtests well, is formulaic, has a good number of stocks, and tracks it's underlying index sufficiently. Just buy some PXSV. Done and done. I've already completed all the homework for you.
by grap0013
Thu May 29, 2014 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality of small-value stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2249

Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

HomerJ wrote:
Sheepdog wrote:I am not investing for "fun".


This.


I didn't say "for fun". I said "which is more fun?" :) Unless you are a robot, you have some emotions tied to your money whether you want to have those emotions or not.
by grap0013
Tue May 27, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?
Replies: 45
Views: 4517

This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

2014 YTD has been boring (from an investment perspective only of course). Emerging markets have been a little bit interesting at times and that's about it. Do you like it this way or do you prefer more volatility? Feel free to state your age with any responses. Note in the poll, if you liked last ye...
by grap0013
Mon May 26, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?
Replies: 45
Views: 4517

Re: Market fluctuation in late 2008

dipsylala wrote:I was reading the wiki page on the list of largest daily percentage changes in S&P 500. It is amazing what happened in late 2008.


It makes this year seem boring right? Time for a poll in 3,2,1.....
by grap0013
Mon May 26, 2014 11:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market fluctuation in late 2008
Replies: 51
Views: 3356

Re: Market fluctuation in late 2008

midareff wrote:Tough to feel too great about anything when you are down many hundred K $.


I want you to read this statement out loud 3 times and think about how it sounds to most people in the world.
by grap0013
Mon May 26, 2014 11:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market fluctuation in late 2008
Replies: 51
Views: 3356

Re: Swedroe's New Book

Grap Glad you enjoyed the book We actually have a bunch of younger advisors who are 100% equity and use the "Larry Portfolio" for the equity portion. I would say it shifts both tails further out, but also shifts the mean to the right. For example 29-31 S&P 500 lost 27% per year and SV...
by grap0013
Sat May 24, 2014 12:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's New Book
Replies: 76
Views: 12020

Re: Does a small value tilt reduce porfolio volatility?

PXSV has an ER of 0.39% while VBR has an ER of 0.09%. Is PXSV more than 4x as tilted towards small and value than VBR? You are calculating the magnitude of the difference in ER. You should do it for the premium. i.e. if the SCV value premium is 4% annually and PXSV captures100% of it while VBR capt...
by grap0013
Sat May 24, 2014 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a small value tilt reduce porfolio volatility?
Replies: 53
Views: 3300

Re: Swedroe's New Book

I read "The Tilter's Guide to the Galaxy" last night....er...I mean....Larry's new book. :) Nice summary overall and a good read. I also liked the illustrations. Should be part of the wiki. Things I would have been interested in seeing that I did not: 1. 100% equity tilted and how it effec...
by grap0013
Fri May 23, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's New Book
Replies: 76
Views: 12020

Re: International Small Cap Value

FWIW OP, I use SFILX as my sole ISV holding. I'd be fine with either PDN/FNDC though. I'm not as crazy about DLS. Dividends seem to be in vogue and I think investors may be willing to pay a little more for them currently which may lessen the future returns. Therefore, I'd rather diversify my value e...
by grap0013
Fri May 16, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Small Cap Value
Replies: 16
Views: 1531

Re: The Great Bond prediction Bust of 2014

Let's see … here are some year-to-date total returns: 3.19% Vanguard Total US Bond That'd be great YTD if the current yield was 7.5%, but it is not. It just means that there are more capital gains further driving down bond yields for future returns. Maybe if one is RBDing...it is a moot point. :twi...
by grap0013
Thu May 15, 2014 10:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Great Bond prediction Bust of 2014
Replies: 12
Views: 1665

Re: International Small Cap Value

IEIS does look interesting. I'm not sure I like the 379 stocks. Everything else in this space has 1000+ stocks. Also, how can you tell if transaction costs are eating into your returns without the fund having an index to benchmark mark against? Fees are low and if fund turnover is <30 percent annual...
by grap0013
Thu May 15, 2014 10:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Small Cap Value
Replies: 16
Views: 1531

Re: Implications of Large Bond allocations of Baby Boomers

I think the average BH is much more conservative than non-BHs. Therefore, it appears like everyone has all these bonds, but in reality it is not enough to sway bond yields substantially.
by grap0013
Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implications of Large Bond allocations of Baby Boomers
Replies: 25
Views: 6754

Re: comparing long term returns: 3 funds vs SCV portfolio

I also like tilting towards all three of small, value, and emerging markets. So far, that has meant that something has always been doing better than the overall market. Value stocks have been losing to growth stocks and emerging markets have been slow, but domestic small stocks have been trucking r...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: comparing long term returns: 3 funds vs SCV portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 4312

Re: You did what???? (out since Sept. 2009)

My perspective is that you might want to start more conservative (like 50/50 or less) and see if you can tolerate not selling in a down market. +1. Great advice here. Lots of people are great savers, but not good investors. Some education may help with risk tolerance, but much of it is innate. You ...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: You did what???? (out since Sept. 2009)
Replies: 25
Views: 7078

Re: Swedroe's New Book

Any updates on release date or how one may preorder a copy?
by grap0013
Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's New Book
Replies: 76
Views: 12020

Re: comparing long term returns: 3 funds vs SCV portfolio

I agree. The most vocal advocates for the SCV tilt in this forum are either professional investors or more seasoned investors, who started investing at least 10 years ago, when valuations were not that high. You just need to look in the right place. VTI (total US stock market) PE 20.1 PB 2.6 PS 1.5...
by grap0013
Thu Apr 24, 2014 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: comparing long term returns: 3 funds vs SCV portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 4312

Re: comparing long term returns: 3 funds vs SCV portfolio

Am I missing something here? Nope. Welcome to the dark side... :twisted: I don't think I can say anything new over what I have already stated over the years on here, but I'll give it a shot. Regarding small caps Even if the small premium would disappear entirely you still get a diversification bene...
by grap0013
Thu Apr 24, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: comparing long term returns: 3 funds vs SCV portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 4312

Re: Lost $10K in my investments past few months

Rescaling my own recent losses to the $10k of the thread title, I don't worry about the loss of $10k in the last two weeks because I was up $20k in the first three months and am still up $10k for the year. I would have to lose another $10k to be back to where I was on 12/31/2013, and another 14 tim...
by grap0013
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $10K in my investments past few months
Replies: 38
Views: 11795

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

you certainly can tell a story though, that includes some math and some recent history. I see you have stated the word "math" 7 times. I've got some math for you! :twisted: Growth of 10K since my initial purchase: US VTI (large caps): +41.2% PXSV +52.5% International developed: VEA (large...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 3035

Re: EM - Quietly Making a comeback

Here's an interesting article on EM valuations. The best info. is towards the bottom: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/03/invest-in-emerging-markets/ An excerpt: "Emerging market earnings are running a bit above historic averages right now, so their CAPE is around 13. For comparison, the ...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM - Quietly Making a comeback
Replies: 9
Views: 1644
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