Search found 1492 matches

by grap0013
Tue Jul 28, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 154
Views: 22042

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

In 5 years emerging markets was exactly where it was including dividends. In my view, people should be extra cautious to redefine long term when holding emerging markets as compared to other funds like vanguard total market. More volatility in EM for sure: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backte...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2663

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

"Thaler describes several experiments which demonstrated that, just as prospect theory predicts, investors who look at their portfolios more regularly take less risk. In other words, myopic loss aversion makes us more conservative in our investments." Couple that with some Boglehead OCD a...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2663

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

This is why you can check often but only look at 15 year trailing returns for example of either your actual holdings or their representative asset classes. If you check trailing 15 year returns you are almost guaranteed investment bliss. One should also frame things in a positive manner. If your por...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11653

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Man, these guys sound like they really know what they are talking about.... Stocks were 62% overvalued in March 2010! Better not invest in stocks then! Too bad anyone who listened to these "experts" missed out on a nearly 100% gain while sitting on the sidelines waiting for the upcoming c...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11653

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Emerging value looks really cheap with PEs ~10. That's 10% real expected return, but it does not come free or easy. Nor is it guaranteed. SFENX (EMV) has -1% annualized returns the past 5 years while VTI (US market) has +17% annualized. 50% higher volatility with SFENX as well. If the tides turn and...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 20, 2015 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medication Therapy Management (Express Scripts Medicaire)
Replies: 4
Views: 531

Re: Medication Therapy Management (Express Scripts Medicaire)

This program is likely intended to lower insurance costs by recommending alternatives that have a lower insurance payment. However, your father really should discuss medication with his physician. At best, this program might give some ideas of low-cost alternatives to discuss with the physician. Bu...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?
Replies: 29
Views: 2446

Re: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?

^ I must admit that graph is pretty cool even though I'm not going to do anything about it. Mean looks like about 10% return so I am assuming nominal and not real returns correct? The graph ends at 6% for 2013 which puts us at about 4% real. Maybe 5% if inflation remains low. 1/PE1 is about 5% real ...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?
Replies: 29
Views: 2446

Re: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?

I am a Burton Malkiel believer. I'm gonna make some assumptions here. Since you are a newer member with <1000 posts... how many finance books have you read? Just ones by Malkiel? Or have you read others? Not trying to be snarky, just legitimately helpful. Taking the advice from any single investmen...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^ I think if I could obtain year over year simulated backtested returns I could possibly sway him! :-) I actually called AQR about 9 months ago and was in discussion with them about it. I got busier at work and it became less of a priority plus I bought 10% anyway. Might still be worth trying to get...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 478
Views: 67287

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Bacchus01 wrote:About 9.5% now.


You have to show all holdings with documented transactions if you are going to claim those mighty returns. Otherwise, it looks like Beardstown Ladies math. I'm joking but not really! :-)
by grap0013
Tue Jul 14, 2015 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

randomguy wrote:
Personally I don't think very many people capitulate between 28% and 30%. I expect most of them to have bailed by the time we hit 15%.:)


Ha ha :-)
by grap0013
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Does it matter if you portfolio drops 30% for 3 months if it closes the year down 10% verus only dropping 20% and closing the year down 9%? Not really. Not to me, but to a lot of people the answer is yes. There is a spectrum of capitulation and everyone has a place on it. Somebodys capitulation poi...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Au contraire mon frère, they are definitely negatively correlated: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&numTradingDays=60&s=y&endDate=06%2F29%2F2015&timePeriod=1&symbols=VTI%2C+VXUS%2C+VFITX ... No, they are not. That's for a short, recent period of time. &...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current rebalancing opportunities (Jul 2015 update)
Replies: 26
Views: 5122

Re: Current rebalancing opportunities (Jul 2015 update)

Livesoft, you post a LOT about looking for rebalancing "opportunities", I sometimes wonder what you must think of us who rebalance based on the calendar (say quarterly, biannually, or annually), rather than constantly scouring the markets for "opportunities" or "RBDs"....
by grap0013
Wed Jul 08, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China stocks crash: right out of Kindleberger's playbook
Replies: 63
Views: 6471

Re: China stocks crash: right out of Kindleberger's playbook

I'm interested to see how non-cap weighted indexes in the EM space will perform next to Vanguard's EM funds. Vanguard's fund is China heavy due to the run up over the past few years while other fundamentally weighted funds have much lower exposure to China. Should be entertaining.
by grap0013
Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3345

Re: Small Cap Value ?

Style.......1 Yr.....3 Yr.....5 Yr....10 Yr.... 15 Yrs . LCG......27.19...27.04....24.98...17.85....17.15 LCB........8.93...17.29....20.35...15.60....15.23 LCV.......-5.21....8.74.....15.16..13.36....13.45 MCG.....57.24....31.09...24.81...18.14....16.82 MCB.....11.87....12.36...16.09...14.12....14....
by grap0013
Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3345

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

I respectfully take issue a bit the the absolute level of certainty that many tilters express about their outperformance in the future. Tilting can be a difficult strategy for many of us to stick with. Garland Whizzer I completely agree with you and 99.99% of retail investors should not tilt. Even ...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 07, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3345

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

Most of the evidence if I recall stated that you may have to wait many years, 15 or so for it to come out ahead. One has to be willing to wait many years. That is a big difference between having to wait 15 years IMO. Most of the time you do not have to. Much like stocks vs. bonds. I began tilting i...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3345

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

BTW, Value does not necessarily mean high quality, it means stocks that most analysts think are not very good. A simple Price/Book (P/B) value sort does not mean high quality. It may have a low price for good reason. That's why I advocate utilizing multiple value metrics coupled with P/B. If a stoc...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 478
Views: 67287

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+4.03% per Morningstar

International SCV is carrying the load.
by grap0013
Thu Jul 02, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

1 week returns:

My entire portfolio (all equities): -1.55%
intermed term treasuries VFITX: -0.15%
QSPIX: +0.82%

What is not to like?! :D
by grap0013
Wed Jul 01, 2015 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obsessing towards zero balance on credit card.
Replies: 135
Views: 10876

Re: Obsessing towards zero balance on credit card.

It's entirely possible that I could have CC charges in a month that exceed my monthly retirement income, thus requiring a transfer of funds into my checking account from investments/savings. A simple monthly autopay setup isn't going to work... Keep more :moneybag in checking. What's the interest r...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 30, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obsessing towards zero balance on credit card.
Replies: 135
Views: 10876

Re: Obsessing towards zero balance on credit card.

My CC has the option to pay in full every month automatically and that's what I do. I NEVER check early to pay it off before it is due. Your obsession does not sound healthy, but there is a lot of obsession in these here parts. Does your obsessing negatively impact other areas of your life? Are your...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

One magnitude of correlation example: Let's say US stocks and EMs have a positive correlation of 0.68 and you get yearly returns of: 2012 US 10% EM 1% 2013 US -2% EM -18% 2014 US 5% EM 3% Correlations were all in the same direction (positive vs. negative returns) but US returns are in the green whil...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Treasury bonds don't have negative correlation with stocks. Look at the bond return of the last 5 years. If they were negatively correlated, bonds would have huge losses. They don't. The only thing I am aware of that is negatively correlated with stocks is shorting the stock market:) Au contraire m...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Down 0.61% today when S&P 500 down 2.09% - not bad. Total Bond Market Index Fund was UP 0.66% today... I'm really not sure what you people think you are accomplishing here. Plain old stocks/bonds seems to be working just fine for diversification today. Treasury bonds were up even a little bit m...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go
Replies: 52
Views: 5545

Re: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go

z3r0c00l wrote:What if we derive satisfaction from hearing you plan to pay this down right away?


Ha ha, funniest post of the day.

Keep your 20% bonds in tax deferred and invest your CD funds into equity funds in taxable and destroy the returns of that loan obligation! ;-)

My spouse would say pay it off.
by grap0013
Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6617

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

Benchmark is Bogle who is very conservative. Therefore, most Bogleheads are on the aggressive side of conservative but still less aggressive than the general populace. For instance, I'm as aggressive as one gets in Boglehead land at 100% equity + max tilts, but I'm not buying individual cannabis oil...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8749

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Angst wrote:Not to be funny - not at all - but I sense nothing of religion in HomerJ's comments, just agnosticism.


Good thing you are not trying to be funny! It may be futile. Nobody even giggled at my boomstick index reference and I was trying to funny! :-)
by grap0013
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8749

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

^Do I see expected real returns in the positive territory for the "boomstick" index on there? I'm gonna buy me some of that! Could be the biased vision of my avatar.... Pessimists are right more often but optimists get more done. I do not think the future looks as bleak as some may make it...
by grap0013
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It is also entertaining. What would I do with my time if I didn't have this thread? :happy Looks like this thread has run its course. What happened to stay the course? Back to the shadows I go until some more QSPIX stuff comes out, or a new factor is invented , or a good yoga thread comes along....
by grap0013
Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The general question, with all strategies that a) are validated only by very long runs of backtested data, and b) show periods of of outperformance and underperformance that have, in the past, lasted for over a decade, is: do I personally have the depth of conviction (and life expectancy) needed to...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 19, 2015 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

. Another relevant paper by Fama-French http://www.chicagobooth.edu/news/pdf/Tilted%20Portfolios%20Hedge%20Funds%20and%20Portable%20Alpha%20200605.pdf Robert . Hmmm....I don't know what to make of your stance here Robert. Judging by your previous posts, I think you are intrigued by QSPIX but this p...
by grap0013
Thu Jun 18, 2015 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

If you're a tilter (which I would assume a QSPIX investor is) do you understand EVERYTHING about your SCV fund? Whether DFSVX/VISVX/VBR/QSMLX there are going to be things you don't know. Your SCV allocation is probably some multiple of your QSPIX allocation as well (for me it's about x 4) You make ...
by grap0013
Mon Jun 15, 2015 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which is a best place to start learning yoga?
Replies: 31
Views: 3154

Re: Which is a best place to start learning yoga?

P90X. Go big or go home. 1 hour 32 minutes. Burns about 650 calories. My back has not felt this good in 19 years. Do your best and forget the rest! Tony Horton is my teacher. I previously had no yoga experience.
by grap0013
Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Packer 16 asked "how do you get comfortable?". I think investing is inherently a bit uncomfortable at least! One of the only ways to gain some comfort is to diversify as broadly as possible. When one is appropriately diversified, there is always a portion of the portfolio that is relative...
by grap0013
Mon Jun 15, 2015 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I decided to buy this fund in my Fido IRA. I have purchased a sizable amount (400k) and am curious to see how it performs relatively to equties I hold in my taxable account at Fido. Will report back ! Wow. That is one very expensive lab experiment. Hope it works well for you. Please report back, I ...
by grap0013
Sat Jun 13, 2015 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nothing special about 10%; it could be 5% or whatever else. Until someone can give me a better rationale than just a hunch for what percentage of QSPIX one ought to include in their portfolio, I find it hard to justify anything. People can't even agree on REITs nor stock:bond mix. No chance to agre...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 12, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Grap0013, I think it's worthwhile to note that for really volatile or weakly/negatively correlated asset classes, their diversification effect on a portfolio will appear to be bigger than their small % allocation would suggest. Don't remember how to calculate it, but I've seen that sort of example ...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

For those of you who have an allocation to this fund, I'm curious if you plan to rebalance into or out of it as applicable (with whatever rules you normally use to rebalance)? I'm just trying to figure out if this fund represent an asset class that would be rebalanced similar to stocks and bonds, o...
by grap0013
Thu Jun 11, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

AQR said what the fund would've done in the past and now it's doing it in real life and people still don't like it. This fund could be around in 20 years performing the same way and some people will still be skeptical. You really think we're crazy for not immediately buying into a new fund's hype? ...
by grap0013
Thu Jun 11, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Food for thought: ⋅ For QSPIX to succeed, it needs dumb investors on the other side of every transaction. Why dumb? Because if QSPIX trades using solid scientific strategies supposed to always win , then these traders should be guaranteed to loose. They must really be dumb to doubt scienc...
by grap0013
Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

My question, to both grap and Random Walker , is this: At what point do you maximize your portfolio's Sharpe ratio? E.g., grap, instead of 100% SV, are you really something like 90% SV and 10% QSPIX? Or would kicking it up to 20% QSPIX boost your portfolio's Sharpe still further? At what point will...
by grap0013
Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Let's call BS on 7% and say it is 5% or 6% (9.17% as of 5/29 but has had a bad couple days b/c Grap has been posting about it...the Grap Omen :-) ). Wouldn't that still be kinda awesome given it isn't correlated with stocks or bonds? Wouldn't that be a good thing for one's portfolio? It is the esti...
by grap0013
Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I believe how QSPIX affects a portfolio depends on where you take assets from to create the position. If you take from the equity side, I believe you would likely keep expected return about the same and likely decrease portfolio volatility. If you take from the bond side, you would increase expecte...
by grap0013
Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I would say that Robert T. had a balanced review earlier that reached a conclusion that you can get the factor loads desired in a less expensive and complicated manner by just being long (and tilted to factors) if your assets are situated in tax sheltered accounts. If the vast majority of your asse...
by grap0013
Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42537

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

QSPIX is 10% of my portfolio. There is a lot of talk about AQR on the forum because retail investors can access their funds through Fidelity and TD Ameritrade. It's almost useless to compare returns of this fund against equities or fixed income in isolation, so I don't even bother. It doesn't even ...
by grap0013
Wed May 06, 2015 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 67
Views: 5869

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

^Agreed this is a depressing thread. Future bond returns will be current yield minus inflation. Real stock returns = 1/PE1. Plan for +/- 3% of that. Reading this stuff (eg. Gross) will only increase your stress levels which produces more cortisol and will deprive one of future life expectancy. Tune ...
by grap0013
Tue May 05, 2015 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the missing value premium
Replies: 34
Views: 3652

Re: the missing value premium

^ My linked chart goes all the way back to 1993 right after Fama-French wrote their classic 1992 paper. Note that it took about 8 years after that paper for the premium to start showing up. One must be patient. I think with some of these new factors the first 5-10 years may be rough for them but eve...

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