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Re: Favorite nonfiction books

Into Thin Air Into the Wild If you like those you will love "Miracle in the Andes" http://www.amazon.com/Miracle-Andes-Days-Mountain-Long/dp/140009769X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1416950786&sr=8-1&keywords=miracle+in+the+andes&pebp=1416950790137 Please note the 5 out of 5 star...
by grap0013
Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 28
Views: 881

Re: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

I still think tilting in the EM arena is worth it. EEMS has done a better job of tracking its index than DGS as of late. It is also smaller and has more favorable P/B and P/CF metrics. P/CF is a moderate proxy for a profitability tilt which is a good thing. Maybe people are paying too much for the d...
by grap0013
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International and Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 13
Views: 1789

Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

Yes what about PE1 though? It's currently at 20.3 for VTI. The difference between r2 for PE10 and PE1 = 0.05

I repeat 0.05

Which one is right this time?

Maybe I'll just buy some PXH with a PE1 of 9.
by grap0013
Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1397

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

1 - Develop a workable Plan: 10 2 - Invest early and often: 10 3 - Just enough risk: 10 (based on my own definition) 4 - Diversify: 10 (once again, according to me) 5 - Don't time the market: 10 6 - Index: 10 (passive = index in my book for all intensive purposes) 7 - Keep costs low: 10 (I have the ...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 112
Views: 5501

Re: Small cap value premium

Either way, I don't see the next 15 years providing the returns of the past 15 years. Buyers of these strategies will have to be extra patient for their excess return going forward. Rick Ferri Heck one has to be patient with any strategy. Emerging markets have been pretty stagnant the last 7 years....
by grap0013
Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 117
Views: 7056

Re: Small cap value premium

YDNAL wrote:Sure, in detail to the point it is nauseating.


Yet here you are responding in this thread. :wink: I'm guilty of it too, I just can't stop myself from clicking in here. :sharebeer
by grap0013
Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 117
Views: 7056

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

25% SCV
12.5% dev int SCV
12.5% EMSCV
50% 5 year treasuries

Keep the allocation the same and spend 4% nominal annually.

This puppy is bulletproof. It does not need to be fancy.
by grap0013
Thu Nov 13, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 3698

Re: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Si

You are not missing anything. I think fixed income 100% at 5 year treasuries is the best allocation.

Full disclosure: I don't have any fixed income, but I am a student of financial history. Once I add some fixed income, I will do as stated above.
by grap0013
Thu Nov 13, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Side?
Replies: 40
Views: 3622

Re: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice

livesoft wrote:Volume for PXSV is also too low. Way too low.


Well yeah, don't day trade this etf. The first PXSV in my Roth that I bought in 2012 does not care about low daily volume.
by grap0013
Fri Nov 07, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 981

Re: International Stock Index Potential

I guess since it's cap weighted then Emerging Markets could get really bubbly and start to dominant VXUS. I would think it would be overpriced at that point which sets one up for a crash.
by grap0013
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1624

Re: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice

Neither. Pay the $7 and buy PXSV: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=126899
by grap0013
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap & Small Cap Value Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 981

Re: investment lessons from QE

Does anyone believe that QE is over? I don't. Look at what the BOJ has started doing - buying stocks now in addition to bonds. Soon others will follow or watch their currencies rise and hurt their global competitiveness. Stay tuned - QE forever. Browser skeptical?! No way! I could've predicted your...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investment lessons from QE
Replies: 34
Views: 3102

Re: The millionth question about what to do with cash.

Honestly, you should just read this book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/031235 ... 0312353634

A few bucks and a few hours. You'll get all the info. you need to make a good decision.
by grap0013
Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The millionth question about what to do with cash.
Replies: 23
Views: 4088

Re: The millionth question about what to do with cash.

Thanks, great advice. I don't need to withdraw the money to live on for the foreseeable future, but currently I have the cash in a money market fund. I don't want to take the risk of equities with this money, but would like more than a 0 return. Allan 0 return nominal or 0 return real? You sound pr...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The millionth question about what to do with cash.
Replies: 23
Views: 4088

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

In nominal terms since 10/1/2007:

Vanguard total stock market (VTI): +56.4%
Emerging markets (VWO): -2%

That's a relative beating. Keep feeding the beast. It will pay off.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2359

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

The comparison you're making is meaningless. I disagree. Your money has to go somewhere and valuations matter. It's meaningless. I recently bought ~$35 k in a couple emerging markets ETFs yielding about 3%. They are down around 10% now. Yes, valuations do matter. Yes, maybe it is a good time to buy...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2359

Re: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of L

If VTINX had outperformed Wellington over the past 2 years everybody would've been telling you that you are selling low by making the change. How come nobody wants to sell Wellington high? That's what you are supposed to do at least if you are changing strategies. I personally do not like target dat...
by grap0013
Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time For Me to Kick Wellington Through The Goalpost of Life?
Replies: 43
Views: 4844

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

EM value funds say Brazil and Russia are cheap.

Any takers on small cap Russia RSXJ? PE ~ 6. Potential annualized returns are 1/6 = 16.7% real..........or maybe $0.
by grap0013
Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2359

Re: Slice & Dice International

Why not just buy sfilx or pdn? These funds have had lower standard deviation than large caps, better returns, and rebalances between countries by itself.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice & Dice International
Replies: 9
Views: 844

Re: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield

John3754 wrote:The comparison you're making is meaningless.


I disagree. Your money has to go somewhere and valuations matter.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Yield
Replies: 14
Views: 2359

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

I love how much belittling I get on this message board. I got a few genuine pieces of advice. Thank you for those. My post seems to be more the butt of jokes. I don't take it personally, but I wish the criticisms has more constructive input. I guess my take away from them should be its too much ris...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 21400

Re: Anyone ever get a roundtrip violation [at Fidelity]?

OP has new investor perfectitis. Mine went away after 5 months along with some topical cream a few years ago. Maybe the OP's will too! :)
by grap0013
Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone ever get a roundtrip violation [at Fidelity]?
Replies: 21
Views: 2128

Re: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?

KlangFool wrote:
Stop getting caught with DUALITY. Aka, the MINDSET of there are only 2 possibilities. There are always more than 2 choices.

KlangFool


I guess the coin could stay balanced on its side... :twisted:

Maximizer for me all the way. Only for big stuff though.
by grap0013
Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?
Replies: 52
Views: 3351

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Grap, Thanks for the list. I'm currently using vanguard mutual funds as I prefer them over ETFs due to ease of automatic transactions and rebalancing, but have been thinking about biting the bullet and switching to ETFs to get more factor tilts. Now I'm trying to figure out the best brokerage to us...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

supertreat wrote:I'm curious as to what knowledgeable people consider the best funds to gain exposure to all the risk factors without DFA access. Anyone?


See my posts:

PXSV
PDN
DGS/PXH
by grap0013
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

JohnnyFive wrote:Grap, I'm curious as to what your overall AA looks like. Do you use MTUM or any other fund loading on momentum?


No momentum load targeted. Sent you a PM.
by grap0013
Mon Sep 29, 2014 7:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

Whenever I read about high valuations, I go back and read this article: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predictor-of-future-stock-market-returns/ The best 10 year predictor of stock market returns is not PE10; it's the percentage of stocks in investor's portfolios....
by grap0013
Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4343

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

^ Right. And just as we shouldn't look at assets in isolation, nor should we look at factor loads in isolation. I think with RZV the large negative momentum load is a big drag on overall returns. For other funds with smaller negative momentum loading it still might be worth it depending on the amoun...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: We're all going to die!!!

Here are the 100 worst days since 1950: date close %change Black Mon, Oct, 19, 1987 224.84 -20.47% Wed, Oct, 15, 2008 907.84 -9.04% Mon, Dec, 01, 2008 816.21 -8.93% Mon, Sep, 29, 2008 1106.42 -8.81% Mon, Oct, 26, 1987 227.67 -8.28% Thu, Oct, 09, 2008 909.92 -7.62% Mon, Oct, 27, 1997 876.99 -6.87% M...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [S&P is down 1.3%, thus] We're all going to die!!!
Replies: 58
Views: 4854

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

Neither. I love my job! If I worked less, I'd probably volunteer and I'd have much less impact in helping people compared to my day job.
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 4357

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

I'm slowly finishing 14 Bogleheads' recommended books. I've found the books that are about financial history and investor's behavior most enlightening. Like you, I'm striving to be helpful to those who read and participate on this forum. 14 partially read books? Maybe you should just finish one in ...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4343

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

On the other hand at some point don't you realize that you picked a poor execution of your strategy? Do you abandon emerging markets if they underperform the US for 15 years? If you liked the initial reason for adding them, the strategy should not change. Similar logic applies to selection of speci...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

So if a normal cap weighted small value fund returns 20%/yr for a decade and the PXSV pure value index returns 15% for a decade, you are going to hold the course because you like the theory behind it? Personally I expect that is going to be real hard to do. It is easy to say SV is out of favor whic...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

I do know that stocks are highly valued now. How do you know this? Did you read it as a headline on Yahoo? I used to say the same things until I was wisened up by the Boglehead's reading list. Have you tried reading any of those books? I'm legitimately trying to be helpful. No snark intended. Thank...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4343

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

I am much less certain that the (Novy-Marx) profitability loads give meaningful results (particularly for smallcap stocks). For example the profitability ("company quality") load on S&P 600 pure value is about +0.30. This makes little sense to me. The RAFI fund also has a relatively l...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Ketawa wrote:True, but the same thing would apply to DFA as well. It seems like AQR is well respected, has been endorsed by Larry and approved for use in BAM, etc.


Good point.
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

You also can't confuse strategy with execution. If PXSV is trailing every other small value fund for 10+ years, you have to question if the index is the right one. Now figuring out if the underperformance is warranted (i.e. maybe you are getting beat by small value funds that invest in bigger growt...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

In this discussion there are two definitions of risk. One is SD and the other is potential ending value of the portfolio. Paul Right. And who cares if there is wider variability in ending portfolio value with stocks as long as the dispersion tends to be higher than bonds. You're best bet for higher...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2762

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

I have been keeping my eye on QSMLX as a potential holding. I'm still undecided, but it looks pretty good in Portfolio Visualizer. There isn't much data on it yet and no index data available to evaluate it. Not that you asked me, but the biggest bugaboo with QSMLX is the lack of underlying index. I...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Search the forum and you can find a post where Rick Ferri linked the RAFI index data, I think. I don't think S&P index data is publicly available anymore. JohnnyFive, I agree with Ketawa about the S&P index data. However, you can find it in an old Robert T thread somewhere. I'd link it, but...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

pkcrafter wrote:So, you need 40 years to invest in high equity allocations for 30 years? :wink:

Paul


He he he. Many roads to Dublin and all that. :-)
by grap0013
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2762

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Not sure how that is possible. By almost all accounts, RZV is probably the most "valuey" fund out there, and, the big knock on it has always been it's negative momentum load, which, by the way, is a product of how "valuey" it is. By almost any measureable, RSV is much more value...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

These types of threads are always entertaining. You cannot predict future stocks returns, but I can predict by posters' responses if they have a high stock allocation or not! :-)
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2762

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

So, what is 30 years--three 10 years terms? What if the 10 year period from year 20-30 is a very bad one? Then can we say stocks are less risky in the long term? I think it can be argued that there really is no long term--only a series of shorter terms which are risky, uncertain and unpredictable; ...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2762

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

ralph124cf wrote:
Does anybody know how often an ETF updates its AUM?

Ralph


Daily I believe.
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Can we please sticky this as this obvious point as it seems to be misunderstood over and over and ... The simple point is the range of returns will be greater (S.D.), but the lowest return will have a better chance of besting an all bond portfolio when time is given for stocks to produce returns cl...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2762

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

^ Maybe this means that PowerShares can finally get the PSXV AUM over the magical 100 million threshold. :) Yeah! Then we can all buy in taxable! I'm going to do my part and still pay my once per year $7.95 commission thru VG brokerage link to buy PXSV in my Roth until then. These fees are outrageo...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 17032

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

the bond fund zigged up more than individual bonds This is just plain wrong. Individual bonds move just the same as a fund. The only case might be a CD with an early redemption penalty, but a secondary market CD would have no such penalty. Note also that the current yield curve reflects all the inf...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3257
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