Search found 1527 matches

by grap0013
Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 173
Views: 24854

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

JimmyJammy wrote:Thanks for the tip about IEMG!


Now go recite "I will stay the course" out loud X10 and post on here that you bought IEMG.
by grap0013
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

And the following: "I’m sure there are some select strategies that are holding up during this downturn, but from a traditional perspective, bonds are really the only assets treading water." During this same period QSPIX is actually up. 10K invested on 5/1 would be worth $10,570 after toda...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First post, analyze my plan/AA?
Replies: 5
Views: 279

Re: First post, analyze my plan/AA?

This looks a little garbled to me. What is your goal stock to bond ratio and what are your goal ratios for US:DevInt:EM?

If you don't like tinkering then I vote just dump it all into target retirement funds.
by grap0013
Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1924
Views: 339326

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these fin...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 173
Views: 24854

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Has this year tested anyone's faith in VWO as a worthy portfolio component? For me, tax loss harvesting VWO will nicely zero out my capital gain for the year. The question is what to immediately do with that money. I could go into a basic equivalent like EEM. Or I could give up on overweighting eme...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 173
Views: 24854

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Hmmm, I started this thread and said VWO seemed cheap at $40 Funny how it doesn't seem cheap at $32 today. I haven't bought any in over a year but looked at it today. It's all mental. If it sits at $32 for a few months after a while $29 will sound cheap. Relativity and anchoring going on. At least ...
by grap0013
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Opening up this thread from a link in my email.

Right above this email is an email from Papa John's Pizza stating: "A great deal, ANY way you slice it!"

How fitting it's next to the QSPIX thread. ROTFLMAO. If Papa John says it's a great deal, I'm buying!
by grap0013
Fri Aug 21, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 7179

Re: Piling into emerging markets

Average Investor wrote:I've been buying EM in modest chunks for about a week as well. My first experience trying to catch a falling knife!


A week is nothing. You guys need to try 5 years! :sharebeer
by grap0013
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 7179

Re: Piling into emerging markets

I'm curious if anyone who has a substantial overweight (say 25% to 33% of equities) in EM staying the course? I am at around 42% US/ 38% Developed / 20% EM. Luckily I also have a low equity allocation (50%) in a Larry-esque portfolio of small-value tilted funds. EM is 25% of my equities and 22.5% o...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Grap, Grap, Grap...what are we going to do with you? Everyone knows that the standard that QSPIX has to be judged against is the following: 1) Never, ever lose money for any period of time 2) In mixed markets do great (better than bonds and equities) 3) In bull markets do better than the slice of t...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I do not believe you could find 150 textbooks that define or give values for the value, carry, momentum and defensive premiums, but in any case these premiums are much less robust and I think any honest range estimates for them would include zero. Nice point. Also, if you look at that graph buried ...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^ I think you are getting way too far into the weeds on this one. This fund basically has multiple factor tilts that have worked well in the past and I think are likely to work well into the future. They are robust. The big question with QSPIX is implementation and actual realized returns after trad...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

10%! Darn it grap0013 I thought I was the QSPIX king with 7.5%! I'll have to up my game! :mrgreen: I upped my position a bit a month or so ago. I was at 4.x% and wanted to get to an even 5% which is where I am now. Will hang out here most likely but 10% is possible down the road. I think that could...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Actually I hate misrepresentation, straw man arguments, and false comparisons. Who the heck says QSPIX is "a nearly no-lose proposition?" Lack_ey has gone to pains to not say this. I don't say it. Grap doesn't say it. tarheel doesn't say it. Larry Swedroe doesn't say that. We generally sa...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I still don't think you have any idea how much risk you're actually taking though. Definitely "riskier" than investing in Total Stock Market through Vanguard because there are so many unknowns with QSPIX and it is an unproven strategy in real world implementation for sure. Although I am w...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and dice: optimal for high-risk-tolerant investors?
Replies: 44
Views: 2334

Re: Slice and dice: optimal for high-risk-tolerant investors?

Welcome to the dark side rca1824. I can tell by your posts where all this logic is going. I was there once myself. Mathematics say you are correct. Once you've officially decided to go 100% equities and 100% SCV then all you have to decide are the ratios of US to international and dev international ...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

CAGR Sharpe Ratio 60% VT/40% BND 4.7% 0.85 50% VT/40% BND/10% QSPIX 5.0% 1.07 Monthly Correlations 11/01/2013 - 07/31/2015 Ticker VT BND QSPIX VT - -0.21 -0.10 BND -0.21 - 0.06 QSPIX -0.10 0.06 - And boom goes the dynamite! All you naysayers have to eat your hats until this 60:40 mix is better off ...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 14, 2015 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The general theme of 'let's wait and see' also has limited logic to it, even before the time span got to 15 or 20yrs and added in the imaginary future VQSPIX fund which is going have an ER of 0.20% :D . Back testing says this array of strategies tends to work. That doesn't mean they will work in th...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 14, 2015 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

But the excess return is just in theory. To date, QSPIX has delivered below equity market returns and the difference has all gone to the asset manager , so you have paid 100% of the outperformance to AQR, unless you put this into something other than a equity or risk category in your portfolio (if ...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 13, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I have more money today and less max drawdown over the past 3 months by owning this fund in real life than if I did not. Wow, 3 months. All I'm saying is this fund backtests well and it has done what it has promised thus far since inception in real life. I'm not guaranteeing anything. It is risky t...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I do and also think some of the factor premiums are true but for this fund make money over more passive exposure you need to believe these guys can time and outperform this passive exposure by 1.5% per year. The later I find hard to believe and the only non-simulated LT returns these guys have is n...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I agree with your arguments in theory but I have observed there is a significant difference between theory and practice. For the only active share to be true I think there are some underlying assumptions, like the past correlations and returns being similar to the future. This is a huge assumption....
by grap0013
Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RAFI US 1000 (PRF) in Taxable?
Replies: 2
Views: 163

Re: RAFI US 1000 (PRF) in Taxable?

I think maybe there is only 1 or 2 funds in ETF history with >100 million in assets that has closed. You are safe at 4.5 billion.
by grap0013
Thu Aug 13, 2015 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^I think the -5% means max total drawdown during the 2008 financial crisis had the actual fund QSPIX been in existence back then. It backtests well during 2000-2002 crisis. Once again, zero correlation to even butter production in Bangladesh. Sometimes it's up and sometimes it's down. If it can deli...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Lackey Note it makes no sense to use the other fund as you get 1/2 vol but pay more than half the expenses, better to just put in half the amount in QSPIX than invest in other fund. Larry That other fund is for people poor at math. All 55 million+ $$$ of them. Anyone who thinks that all the "p...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap
Replies: 24
Views: 1839

Re: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap

I had never looked up EEMS before this. I wonder why its so Valuey right now? Maybe its just a byproduct of the market fall in EM. This fund has always appeared to have a value tilt. 700+ stocks, 20% turnover, very small cap with a value tilt. Tracks its index very well. Pretty appealing characteri...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 10, 2015 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap
Replies: 24
Views: 1839

Re: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap

Next decision will be VSS or FNDC/IEIS/PDN in taxable. Soon I'm going to have to start doing international small cap in taxable. Wow has FNDC accumulated some assets rapidly. Last time I looked it was < 50 million. I confess I do not have any taxable assets at the moment, but I do think longevity a...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 10, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap
Replies: 24
Views: 1839

Re: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap

Schwab (SFILX) appears to be having a hard time of tracking its index. It switched underlying indexes a few years back. I'm not sure we even have 3 year tracking error numbers yet. I looked a while ago and I seem to recall the 1 year tracking error was something like ~1%. Considering an ER of about...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 10, 2015 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap
Replies: 24
Views: 1839

Re: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap

I'm changing my recommendation. Stay the course and do nothing.
by grap0013
Mon Aug 10, 2015 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I started investing in QSPIX just this year. For us portfolio junkies who may watch things daily, it is very fun to see its daily moves compared to the market. Dave Tis true. No matter what stock futures show, or other markets did during the day etc.... you really can't predict how this fund perfor...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 10, 2015 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nothing like a play-by-play update. Trailing 3 month returns for my portfolio: Total: -3.42% QSPIX: +6.31% VFITX (intermed term treasuries): +0.41% Those are real returns of a fund that I actually held throughout the entire time frame. Not backtested. While these are real returns and I'm also a fan...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap
Replies: 24
Views: 1839

Re: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap

IEIS definitely has too few stocks. DLS only has dividend value tilt. You want to tilt across multiple value metrics to increase your chances of earning any premiums. I have a strong preference for 100% SFILX here. Lots of stocks, reasonable price, and it has a little bit lower standard deviation th...
by grap0013
Fri Aug 07, 2015 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nothing like a play-by-play update.

Trailing 3 month returns for my portfolio:

Total: -3.42%
QSPIX: +6.31%
VFITX (intermed term treasuries): +0.41%

Those are real returns of a fund that I actually held throughout the entire time frame. Not backtested.
by grap0013
Tue Aug 04, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How's this for snowballing my debt!
Replies: 41
Views: 4202

Re: How's this for snowballing my debt!

terran wrote:Not sure that counts as a snowball. More like you dropped a whole nor'easter on that debt. Well done! :D


+1

That is a terrible snowball analogy over a 2 month period unless you were making daily payments and incrementally stacked them. :-)

Seriously though, nice job OP!
by grap0013
Mon Aug 03, 2015 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I be concerned with my Emerging Markets Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1060

Re: Should I be concerned with my Emerging Markets Fund?

Nope, you should be happy it has a 1 star rating. There is an inverse correlation with performance there. SFENX is EM value and EM value has been beat up the past few years relative to EM as a whole. Good things come to those who wait.
by grap0013
Tue Jul 28, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 173
Views: 24854

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

In 5 years emerging markets was exactly where it was including dividends. In my view, people should be extra cautious to redefine long term when holding emerging markets as compared to other funds like vanguard total market. More volatility in EM for sure: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backte...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2709

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

"Thaler describes several experiments which demonstrated that, just as prospect theory predicts, investors who look at their portfolios more regularly take less risk. In other words, myopic loss aversion makes us more conservative in our investments." Couple that with some Boglehead OCD a...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2709

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

This is why you can check often but only look at 15 year trailing returns for example of either your actual holdings or their representative asset classes. If you check trailing 15 year returns you are almost guaranteed investment bliss. One should also frame things in a positive manner. If your por...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11847

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Man, these guys sound like they really know what they are talking about.... Stocks were 62% overvalued in March 2010! Better not invest in stocks then! Too bad anyone who listened to these "experts" missed out on a nearly 100% gain while sitting on the sidelines waiting for the upcoming c...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11847

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Emerging value looks really cheap with PEs ~10. That's 10% real expected return, but it does not come free or easy. Nor is it guaranteed. SFENX (EMV) has -1% annualized returns the past 5 years while VTI (US market) has +17% annualized. 50% higher volatility with SFENX as well. If the tides turn and...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 20, 2015 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medication Therapy Management (Express Scripts Medicaire)
Replies: 4
Views: 540

Re: Medication Therapy Management (Express Scripts Medicaire)

This program is likely intended to lower insurance costs by recommending alternatives that have a lower insurance payment. However, your father really should discuss medication with his physician. At best, this program might give some ideas of low-cost alternatives to discuss with the physician. Bu...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?
Replies: 29
Views: 2517

Re: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?

^ I must admit that graph is pretty cool even though I'm not going to do anything about it. Mean looks like about 10% return so I am assuming nominal and not real returns correct? The graph ends at 6% for 2013 which puts us at about 4% real. Maybe 5% if inflation remains low. 1/PE1 is about 5% real ...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?
Replies: 29
Views: 2517

Re: If less than 30% EM, you are underweight?

I am a Burton Malkiel believer. I'm gonna make some assumptions here. Since you are a newer member with <1000 posts... how many finance books have you read? Just ones by Malkiel? Or have you read others? Not trying to be snarky, just legitimately helpful. Taking the advice from any single investmen...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^ I think if I could obtain year over year simulated backtested returns I could possibly sway him! :-) I actually called AQR about 9 months ago and was in discussion with them about it. I got busier at work and it became less of a priority plus I bought 10% anyway. Might still be worth trying to get...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 519
Views: 74791

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Bacchus01 wrote:About 9.5% now.


You have to show all holdings with documented transactions if you are going to claim those mighty returns. Otherwise, it looks like Beardstown Ladies math. I'm joking but not really! :-)
by grap0013
Tue Jul 14, 2015 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

randomguy wrote:
Personally I don't think very many people capitulate between 28% and 30%. I expect most of them to have bailed by the time we hit 15%.:)


Ha ha :-)
by grap0013
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Does it matter if you portfolio drops 30% for 3 months if it closes the year down 10% verus only dropping 20% and closing the year down 9%? Not really. Not to me, but to a lot of people the answer is yes. There is a spectrum of capitulation and everyone has a place on it. Somebodys capitulation poi...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 612
Views: 58744

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Au contraire mon frère, they are definitely negatively correlated: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&numTradingDays=60&s=y&endDate=06%2F29%2F2015&timePeriod=1&symbols=VTI%2C+VXUS%2C+VFITX ... No, they are not. That's for a short, recent period of time. &...
by grap0013
Mon Jul 13, 2015 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current rebalancing opportunities (Jul 2015 update)
Replies: 26
Views: 5188

Re: Current rebalancing opportunities (Jul 2015 update)

Livesoft, you post a LOT about looking for rebalancing "opportunities", I sometimes wonder what you must think of us who rebalance based on the calendar (say quarterly, biannually, or annually), rather than constantly scouring the markets for "opportunities" or "RBDs"....

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