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Re: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia

dannyc, what whas the size of the portfolio at the beginning of retirement?
Would you be able to split international allocation between US and ex-US?

US stocks come from a longer positive streak of returns, some rebalancing bonus out of the market cap could be useful.
by gorion83
Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 488

Re: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia

First, congrats on joining the Bogleheads, it is a good long term decision. Second, the investing needs of a person in the third stage of its investing lifecycle (spending) are quite different from yours (23yrs old). Just think that a single bad streak of returns can ruin any chance for your nonno t...
by gorion83
Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 488

Re: What's the best REIT Index?

Speaking of World Cup... I think that bite hurt us less than the silly red card to Marchisio and Prandelli strange choices on who to bring and who to leave home (Cassano instead than Rossi? Aquilani rather than another forward like Destro? Paletta?) which lead to playing the last 30 minutes against ...
by gorion83
Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the best REIT Index?
Replies: 4
Views: 737

Re: What's the best REIT Index?

Thanks in_reality, but I'm from Italy so if I purchase ETFs on the NYSE taxes are much higher. (index funds doesn't exist) I'd like to include emerging markets exposure, but I can't find any ETF on the Milan exchange with those characteristics, so I'm limited to developed countries. Also, since the ...
by gorion83
Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the best REIT Index?
Replies: 4
Views: 737

What's the best REIT Index?

I'm not sure which of these two indexes available to me is the best for global real estate exposure. The first is the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Dividend+ Index, which offers exposure to listed real estate companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) from developed countries worldwide, exclud...
by gorion83
Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the best REIT Index?
Replies: 4
Views: 737

Re: Would you change stock allocation based on market condit

Shiller PE is my friend.

Bogle itself in its book writes that one could adjust for market valuations, if willing to take the tracking error risk.
I think that buying cheap is better than buying at whatever price, so I adjust my target allocation by CAPE.
by gorion83
Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you change stock allocation based on market conditions
Replies: 37
Views: 1784

Re: Opinions wanted on bond part of risky portfolio..

Thanks all for the input. Let me start with the LMP+RP issue. This approach (although it may sound strange) it is supported in the literature by authors like Bodie or Bernstein (in one of his "investing for adults" series booklets). The main idea behind this approach is to cover all known ...
by gorion83
Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions wanted on bond part of risky portfolio..
Replies: 4
Views: 506

Opinions wanted on bond part of risky portfolio..

Hello, I'm building for my mom (66yrs old) a portfolio following the LMP+RP approach. The risky portfolio has a 80% allocation to equity and a 20% to bonds. Being a risky portfolio with no real importance for her future expenses (already covered by her pension, LMP and insurances for specific risks)...
by gorion83
Sun Jun 22, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions wanted on bond part of risky portfolio..
Replies: 4
Views: 506

Re: how do I find out PE10 of foreign stock markets?

thanks for your effort GenghisKhan.
Any chance that you could add also a regional Euro index?
by gorion83
Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do I find out PE10 of foreign stock markets?
Replies: 73
Views: 12427

Re: "Skating Where the Puck Was"

If you believe in Jack Bogle's "Reversion to the Mean" it should work. Except, you don't know when. I think the correct interpretation is not that last year's winner will be this year's loser. It is that there is no correlation. Keith Yes, I agree. But, even then, if I find some asset cla...
by gorion83
Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Skating Where the Puck Was"
Replies: 79
Views: 13058

Re: "Skating Where the Puck Was"

Just finished reading this book. It is very interesting, and I really like the series so far. I'm a bit puzzled with the consequences of what you write. If buying the "hot" things can lead to disaster, could a strategy based on purchasing the asset classes who fell most in the last X years...
by gorion83
Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Skating Where the Puck Was"
Replies: 79
Views: 13058

Re: Value and Momentum premiums

If they actually exist, wouldn't an active management portfolio focusing on these 2 aspects do better than a lazy, rebalanced portfolio?
by gorion83
Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value and Momentum premiums
Replies: 70
Views: 5116

Re: Request: John Bogle's speech/essay against Tilting (sm,

I think Bogle has some good points. 1) Any Small, Value or whatever index will incur more costs than a TSM broad index. That will likely increase costs and bring more tax inefficiency than the TSM version. Will those costs be so high to offset any premium? 2) You may have to incur into rebalancing c...
by gorion83
Tue Jul 17, 2012 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Request: John Bogle's speech/essay against Tilting (sm, val)
Replies: 8
Views: 1438

Re: What's wrong? Is it Mornigstar or what else?

I did a second attempt.. Manually extracted the fund list, vlookuped out the institutional funds (based on the criteria of a minimum investment above 10k, maybe a bit too imprecise), then I kept only the funds active by 5 years. Things look a bit better. Average yield by the category Europe Large Ca...
by gorion83
Sat Jul 14, 2012 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong? Is it Mornigstar or what else?
Replies: 2
Views: 552

What's wrong? Is it Mornigstar or what else?

Hi, I've been reading Common Sense on Mutual Funds these days, and after reading Chapter 4 I did want to check how different things are for Europe... So I went to morningstar.it (I suggest you check the UK version if you want to re-do my calculation) and tried to "spot" the difference betw...
by gorion83
Sat Jul 14, 2012 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong? Is it Mornigstar or what else?
Replies: 2
Views: 552

Re: Trip To Europe

Italy is hot as H*** in August! And from what I've heard, does not have AC. That's wrong. We do have AC :) Just make sure you book the right place! I do agree that visiting Italy in Summer could be unpleasant. Especially for Rome it would be best to visit it in May or September, but you'll have a f...
by gorion83
Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trip To Europe
Replies: 27
Views: 1537

Re: Bill Bernstein's new e-Book now available

So yeah, I agree with you, in a sense. There is no way I would ever advocate a 100% stock portfolio in just one country. It's so easy to invest in foreign stocks today, that taking country risk should really be a thing of the past. And if I were going to load up on one country, one of the last I'd ...
by gorion83
Wed Jun 27, 2012 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's new e-Book now available
Replies: 109
Views: 15092

Re: Bill Bernstein's new e-Book now available

I personally think the fear of the market is a bit overstated. If I were to look back at all the drops in my lifetime (i'm 40), every single one of them recovered within just a few short years and/or certainly didn't devestate your portfolio. The 73-74, 87, 2000, and 2007 all recovered relatively q...
by gorion83
Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's new e-Book now available
Replies: 109
Views: 15092

Re: Bill Bernstein's new e-Book now available

Interesting reading, indeed. I am still in the early game, so I read with much interest about the proposed strategies. One thing that striked me was the comparison between the small and value approach with no ER and the S&P 500, giving us better results anyway. Would this mean that volatility is...
by gorion83
Wed Jun 27, 2012 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's new e-Book now available
Replies: 109
Views: 15092

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

So yes, it is a bit funny. Let's say the ETF tracks the global REIT index. The swap counterparty goes bankrupt, and you will end up with Japanese bonds and UK large-cap equities (for example), even though you bought a REIT ETF. Ah, ETFs are complicated beasts! Indeed. And the next question would be...
by gorion83
Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

What is your strategy when trading ETFs? When do you buy them during the day? And do you pay for the real time data, or do you use the 15 minutes delayed pricing? I do have real time data on the Milan exchange as a freebie from my bank. I always try to trade when the underlying markets are open, bu...
by gorion83
Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

Quite in an hurry, so forgive me if I don't go deep in details. Security lending is risky, but I still prefer that to replication with derivates. Just a matter of personal preferences, I like to understand what I am buying. Btw every issuer has its own policy, and that's why I really like the CS one...
by gorion83
Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

You sure pay double tax on ETFs. Unless you use the foreign tax credit. Do you use it? Charybdis, this is plain wrong. Ireland doesn't witheld any tax on dividends for foreign individual investors. http://www.revenue.ie/en/tax/dwt/leaflets/dividend-withholding-tax-guidelines.html Go to 5.a) Given t...
by gorion83
Mon Jun 25, 2012 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

You pay unnecessary taxes? Why? Read the Bogleheads rules. 1st rule: minimize your costs, including taxes. Do you at least claim back the foreign tax credit? You pay taxes twice, this is a double taxation: First the ETF itself pays dividend withholding taxes to foreign governments, then you yet aga...
by gorion83
Mon Jun 25, 2012 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

So exactly which ETFs do you intend to buy? And which share class (USD, EUR or EUR-hedged)? I also prefer full physical replication ETFs, but if I can find only synthetic or optimized physical ETFs which are appropriate, then I buy them. So you pay dividend tax after the ETF dividends??? Then why d...
by gorion83
Mon Jun 25, 2012 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

But Vanguard has only 5 distributing ETFs. Why would you buy a distributing ETF? Also did you check the tax treaty for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income between Italy and Luxembourg, Ireland? Does Ireland or Luxembourg withheld any...
by gorion83
Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

We would not be holding this conversation if we were in Greece. If Greece goes, then the first thing that happens is bank accounts are frozen. That's why Greeks have pulled their deposits out: the rich ones to Switzerland, the UK etc. The poor ones into their mattresses. When a country stages a for...
by gorion83
Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: Any good European author for Bogleheads?

Wow.. thanks for the answers, everyone.. @Stryker. Didn't have much luck with amazon (or other stores). I did manage to find a couple of decents books so far, but nothing comparable to Bogle, Swensen or W. Bernstein. @Valuethinker: you hit the point. I'm mainly looking for specific advice on taxatio...
by gorion83
Sun Jun 24, 2012 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Any good European author for Bogleheads?

Since I stumbled upon Bogleheads I did read quite a bit.. Bogle, Swensen, Bernstein... all nice and interesting books. However while the important part of the advice is applicable to Europeans as well, there are some aspect which are peculiar to US citizens. Do you know good European authors in line...
by gorion83
Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good European author for Bogleheads?
Replies: 32
Views: 22127

Re: What are you doing to protect yourself from another 2008

The main thing to do is to find an asset allocation you are comfortable with and stick to that. For example a 50/50 will rarely drop more than 25% in a single year. Other than that read books (W.Bernstein last on Amazon is very good, in my opinion) and, if you think that you are able to, maybe try t...
by gorion83
Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you doing to protect yourself from another 2008?
Replies: 54
Views: 4117

Re: When tilting toward SmVal do you use Index or Explorer?

Regardless of how efficient or inefficient a particular market may be, it's still mathematically impossible for active investors as a whole to outperform passive investors as a whole. Some active investors will be successful, but I suspect you'll find no statistically-significant persistence of out...
by gorion83
Sat Jun 16, 2012 4:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When tilting toward SmVal do you use Index or Explorer?
Replies: 11
Views: 1375

Re: Ralph Block on REIT Allocations - 15% - 20%

Daniel, even if you are right about valuations, isn't the whole point of diversification to be invested in different asset classes at various times? REIT is a different asset class and valuethinker explained this very well. Regardless of valuations we want exposure to the asset class, and as Roger G...
by gorion83
Sat Jun 16, 2012 4:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ralph Block on REIT Allocations - 15% - 20%
Replies: 34
Views: 3279

Re: When tilting toward SmVal do you use Index or Explorer?

eheh, nice catch on the nickname :mrgreen: I don't know if that's the only satellite you have, but i think there would be better diversifiers/enhancers to TSM. Perhaps some Emerging markets or an ACWI index.. don't consider this if you already own international equities. If I may add, i found D.Swen...
by gorion83
Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When tilting toward SmVal do you use Index or Explorer?
Replies: 11
Views: 1375

Re: Portfolio rebalancing ?

I check my allocation at least every three months and whenever I find the time to do it. I'm not rebalancing since 6 months, though.
by gorion83
Thu Jun 14, 2012 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio rebalancing ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1259

Re: When tilting toward SmVal do you use Index or Explorer?

In theory less efficient markets offer more room for exploits, but in practice there is no evidence so far that active management is better. you also have more costs dragging the overall performance down. i'd stick with the indexed version. active management is a bit Like a diamond player against gs...
by gorion83
Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When tilting toward SmVal do you use Index or Explorer?
Replies: 11
Views: 1375

Re: Do other countries have very low cost index funds?

Looking at page 17 of Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook for 2011 , I note that from 1900 to 2010 Italy had the second worst performance out of nineteen other stock markets in the world for "real dividend growth" of what looks to be from the chart in figure 4 of approximate ...
by gorion83
Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do other countries have very low cost index funds?
Replies: 33
Views: 3589

Re: How to find the iNAV of ETFs listed on London Stock Exch

There is a column in the ETF factsheet titled "iNAV ticker", and there are also columns for Reuters and Bloomberg tickers. But where to enter this iNAV ticker? Google doesn't help. Is it possible that not every ETF publishes the iNAV? Strange... Example: http://it.ishares.com/it/rc/prodot...
by gorion83
Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to find the iNAV of ETFs listed on London Stock Exchange
Replies: 3
Views: 367

Re: Ralph Block on REIT Allocations - 15% - 20%

abuss368 wrote:10% of your total asset allocation or 10% of equity?

10% total
by gorion83
Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ralph Block on REIT Allocations - 15% - 20%
Replies: 34
Views: 3279

Re: Picking stocks is hard, Facebook lesson

It was very fun for me to watch the TV here in Italy and hearing people came out from nowhere claiming that: - Facebook is the future and opened a new era for the whole tech stocks - The IPO price was just the starting point for a long-term increase. - That the high P/E was justified by the explosiv...
by gorion83
Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Picking stocks is hard, Facebook lesson
Replies: 16
Views: 1400

Re: Ralph Block on REIT Allocations - 15% - 20%

I have about 20% of equity in REITs and have been considering 30% (i.e. David Swensen). I have been very pleased with the results in all markets. I agree with David Swensen in Unconventional Success that 5% - 10% of an asset class is the minimum. I just don't think that a 5% weighting would have mu...
by gorion83
Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ralph Block on REIT Allocations - 15% - 20%
Replies: 34
Views: 3279

Re: How to find the iNAV of ETFs listed on London Stock Exch

try looking on the website of the issuer. You should find the inav for either bloomberg or reuters. Then search google, i find something 95% of time.
For the other 5% try to find an Inav on another exchange or simply be ready to trade without it.
by gorion83
Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to find the iNAV of ETFs listed on London Stock Exchange
Replies: 3
Views: 367

Re: Do other countries have very low cost index funds?

While I'm not sure, I get the sense from this board that many other developed countries don't have a plethora of low cost index fund options like the United States does. What about the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Australia? And if the answer for any of those countries is no, then why not? S...
by gorion83
Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do other countries have very low cost index funds?
Replies: 33
Views: 3589

Re: Vanguard TIPS article

The expected returns of nominal bonds and tips is the same. However, if the inflation is higher than expected TIPS win. On the other hand if it is lower TIPS lose. The reasoning behind allocating a good amount in them is because they are the only asset class with this property. No other asset class ...
by gorion83
Sat Feb 04, 2012 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard TIPS article
Replies: 23
Views: 2752

Re: Vanguard TIPS article

Am i wrong in saying that theorems are just a modelling of reality which may work fine in 90% of the cases but not in 100%? Shouldn't the facts always be taken into account to understand where the model is flawed? Also, I think that your theorem can only be applied ex-post. Would you be able to find...
by gorion83
Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard TIPS article
Replies: 23
Views: 2752

Saving or investment and loan

I was just thinking about my future needs.. I realized that in a few years I'll probably need to spend: ~ $20k in marriage costs (supposing that the spouse doesn't contribute and excluding any "gift" from friends/parents) ~ $8k in a car (used) ~ $20k for house furniture.. Now, having an in...
by gorion83
Sat Jan 28, 2012 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Saving or investment and loan
Replies: 1
Views: 182

Re: Why isn't everyone using a 3-Fund portfolio?

I guess everyone has different reasons on that. For me, I'm more confortable with more funds, just because I feel I have more "rebalancing power", as stupid as this definition can be.. However, I am more confortable staying the course this way, and this has more value added for me than any...
by gorion83
Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't everyone using a 3-Fund portfolio?
Replies: 89
Views: 8726

Re: Will you be investing in the Facebook IPO?

If I remember correctly, IPOs are generally a great way to make money.. for investment banks.
by gorion83
Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you be investing in the Facebook IPO?
Replies: 67
Views: 7870

Re: Lump Sum: How to move into the market

I think that an eye on valuations must be kept. Generally I prefer to time based on CAPE, but those are not numbers easy to find. I'm starting to keep my own database for MSCI indexes, based on their factsheet.. At least this is what I do: take the index level at date X and see P/E reported in the f...
by gorion83
Sat Jan 21, 2012 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lump Sum: How to move into the market
Replies: 39
Views: 2771

Re: [Europe] ETFs vs Index Funds.

Was able to pull up the paper. Regarding ETFs, I thought the paper was disingenuous. For example, they focused on premiums/discounts to NAV for a thinly-traded Egypt ETF--few investors care about that! Basically I would look for widely-traded ETFs and compare their costs to this fund. Remember that...
by gorion83
Tue Jan 17, 2012 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Europe] ETFs vs Index Funds.
Replies: 4
Views: 490
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