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Re: Foreign exchange risk

One more thought: It doesn't matter in what currency your fund / ETF is denominated, it only matters what the underlying is. In other words, if you had a USD denominated US Stock Funds (which didn't do anything on Jan 15) or one denominated in Swiss Francs (which lost 15%), you are still left with t...
by ge1
Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign exchange risk
Replies: 6
Views: 680

Re: Foreign exchange risk

A few thoughts on this: - I know the 15% drop hurts but I honestly wouldn't worry too much about it. US investors in International diversified stock funds made a very similar experience last year, albeit over a longer time period (international stocks underperformed US stocks by 15% over the last ye...
by ge1
Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign exchange risk
Replies: 6
Views: 680

Re: Great Krugman column on Swiss currency debacle

I thought it was a terrible column. He doesn't even know that cuckoo clocks are made in Germany and not Switzerland.
by ge1
Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Krugman column on Swiss currency debacle
Replies: 8
Views: 1223

Re: Swiss franc jumps as SNB abandons ceiling versus euro

No, it means that banks who deposit CHF with the Swiss National Bank need to pay for the pleasure of having a CHF deposit.
by ge1
Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swiss franc jumps as SNB abandons ceiling versus euro
Replies: 25
Views: 2258

Re: Small Cap Value worth it?

I get the concept, that's why I clearly stated that the returns were prices only excluding dividends.
by ge1
Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Re: Small Cap Value worth it?

Thanks for the feedback. Return numbers are as per today as per Google Finance.
by ge1
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Small Cap Value worth it?

I'm thinking about tilting my stock allocation towards small cap value. I had a quick look at the performance of the Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF (VBR) and the performance compared with the US Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) seems very similar: 1 Year return: VBR 4% vs VTI 7% 5 Year return: 82% vs 79% ...
by ge1
Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 3798

Re: Can I retire early? 38 y/o

I'm probably just too conservative, but why would you remain 75% in equities in your situation? Wouldn't it make sense to bring your stocks down to at least 60%?
by ge1
Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire early? 38 y/o
Replies: 89
Views: 10498

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mini

I did even better than that, I bought GDX and GDXJ in my brokerage account.... Needless to say, they were awful investments. In an effort to simplify my portfolio I sold them all in December, at least they were in a taxable account. What I certainly wouldn't do in your situation is double down on yo...
by ge1
Thu Jan 08, 2015 6:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 40
Views: 3923

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

1463.
by ge1
Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 556
Views: 19728

Re: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."

I agree that investing today should provide you much better returns than investing in 2000, so that should provide comfort. on the other hand, the bubble of 2000 was of such epic proportions that the market today is still expensive if you look at Shiller P/e for example. Unlike many others here, I ...
by ge1
Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."
Replies: 63
Views: 6121

Re: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."

I agree that investing today should provide you much better returns than investing in 2000, so that should provide comfort. on the other hand, the bubble of 2000 was of such epic proportions that the market today is still expensive if you look at Shiller P/e for example. Unlike many others here, I t...
by ge1
Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thesis: "Current secular bear market is an opportunity."
Replies: 63
Views: 6121

completed refi today, feels pretty good...

Signed all the paperwork this morning for the refi, we locked in the rate probably 6 weeks ago.

2.75% for 15 years, feels pretty good :sharebeer

Nice weekend everybody!
by ge1
Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: completed refi today, feels pretty good...
Replies: 2
Views: 431

Re: what you should know about the recent market drop

Larry - thanks for your continued contributions to this board, I always enjoy reading your balanced view. I have to admit I am a bit puzzled about the statement that the market is not expensive based on forward operating earnings: - why would we even use operating earnings? This basically allows com...
by ge1
Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what you should know about the recent market drop
Replies: 27
Views: 5783

Re: I love the smell of fear in the markets

does anyone else get giddy when the news on the the markets is bad? Those who relish other's misfortune have much bigger problems than they realize. C'mon guys, these comments are getting a bit much. I would argue a falling market is better as you can reinvest at lower prices. And everybody who rel...
by ge1
Mon Jun 24, 2013 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I love the smell of fear in the markets
Replies: 34
Views: 4828

Re: Things are getting interesting...

I can't help it but I just like when things are on sale Emerging Markets - down 5% today, down 17% for the year International - down 4% both today and for the year US REITs - down 4.5% today and flat for the year. Bought more Emerging Markets today, who else is buying? You must be a retailers dream...
by ge1
Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Things are getting interesting...
Replies: 12
Views: 1971

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

I would say this qualifies as a timely post... :sharebeer
by ge1
Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 120
Views: 16382

Things are getting interesting...

I can't help it but I just like when things are on sale

Emerging Markets - down 5% today, down 17% for the year
International - down 4% both today and for the year
US REITs - down 4.5% today and flat for the year.

Bought more Emerging Markets today, who else is buying?
by ge1
Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Things are getting interesting...
Replies: 12
Views: 1971

Re: Which mortgage option?

At those rates certainly the 30 year. Did they not quote you a 15 year rate? Even after the recent increase you should get them a little over 3%. If you can afford it I like the 15 year mortgages, however as other said the 30 year provides more flexibility due to the lower payments. Also assuming ra...
by ge1
Sun Jun 16, 2013 5:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which mortgage option?
Replies: 11
Views: 807

Re: What age did you reach 100K networth?

31 when I got married :happy
by ge1
Sat Jun 15, 2013 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age did you reach 100K networth?
Replies: 264
Views: 36312

Re: Sub-emerging Markets: All that's left is the crying

Random Musings wrote:I betcha emerging market index outperforms domestic index over the next 5 to ten years. I can't get excited about short term noise.

RM


Agree. My stock allocation is mostly emerging markets.
by ge1
Wed Jun 12, 2013 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sub-emerging Markets: All that's left is the crying
Replies: 62
Views: 6343

Re: Investment property and cap rate

You ignore that by paying the mortgage your equity increases and leverage goes down. I'm just starting out doing investment properties, but as others mentioned your rental income seems very low. As a comparison, we are in the process of buying an apartment for 140k and should get 1200 per month in r...
by ge1
Mon Jun 10, 2013 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investment property and cap rate
Replies: 32
Views: 2689

Re: El-Erian: Walk, Don't Run From Equities Risk

looks like smart advise to me
by ge1
Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian: Walk, Don't Run From Equities Risk
Replies: 36
Views: 4502

Re: Bad day for REITs

Note that later in that thread Larry Swedroe described how he changed his plan in 1998, going to small-value only for equities, and reducing his overall equity allocation. He did that toward the end of one of the great equity bull markets (although as he said, a couple of years early), not after st...
by ge1
Wed May 29, 2013 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad day for REITs
Replies: 63
Views: 8396

Re: Bad day for REITs

Note that later in that thread Larry Swedroe described how he changed his plan in 1998, going to small-value only for equities, and reducing his overall equity allocation. He did that toward the end of one of the great equity bull markets (although as he said, a couple of years early), not after st...
by ge1
Wed May 29, 2013 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad day for REITs
Replies: 63
Views: 8396

Re: Bad day for REITs

InvestorNewb I have to admit reading the thread makes me cringe. You are in my view completely overexposed to a fairly small sector of the economy, which admittely had a great run over the last few years. Since the March 2009 lows REITs are up a staggering 240%! And now after a small drop you are al...
by ge1
Wed May 29, 2013 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad day for REITs
Replies: 63
Views: 8396

Re: The prudent way to increase expected returns

Thanks Larry for your continued great contributions to this forum.

I'm curious what sort of earnings number is being used to calculate the US P/E ratio? I believe trailing reported earnings for the S&P are around 90, which would give me a P/e ratio of approx 18 and not 13?
by ge1
Sat May 25, 2013 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The prudent way to increase expected returns
Replies: 31
Views: 4108

Re: C'mon international rise!

Yes, I strongly overweigh Emerging Markets. If you believe GMO Emerging Markets will outperform US by a very wide margin over the next 7 years.
by ge1
Sat May 25, 2013 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: C'mon international rise!
Replies: 47
Views: 4255

Re: Will 1,666 be the high?

nisiprius wrote:If the Book of Revaluations is right, it might be the bestial get.


love it :D
by ge1
Fri May 17, 2013 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will 1,666 be the high?
Replies: 31
Views: 3514

Will 1,666 be the high?

As 666 was the low back in March 2009, maybe 1,666 will be the high :wink: ? Not having invested yet in the 90s, I have to admit this ongoing rally is getting a bit scary. And a bit painful as well, as I'm overweight emerging markets. So good for you all who have small cap, REITS, high yield bonds a...
by ge1
Fri May 17, 2013 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will 1,666 be the high?
Replies: 31
Views: 3514

Re: Just Sold Out. What do you think?

Not crazy, just a market timer :D The key in investing is you have to do it your own way and you have to learn your own lessons. I share your view that the US market is overpriced, but being 0% in stocks doesn't make any sense, especially given your age. A few thoughts - Even though the S&P is a...
by ge1
Mon May 13, 2013 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just Sold Out. What do you think?
Replies: 95
Views: 7857

Re: Your best financial move

Buying an apartment in NYC in 2004 and selling it in 2008 for 50% more.
by ge1
Sat Apr 27, 2013 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your best financial move
Replies: 98
Views: 8040

Re: Are we in a stock bubble?

Yes .
by ge1
Thu Apr 25, 2013 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a stock bubble?
Replies: 49
Views: 4742

Re: Help w/ a $55M portfolio?

And yes, I think you have too much in fixed income / cash. I would aim for 60/40 stocks / bonds and cash.
by ge1
Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help w/ a $55M portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 6981

Re: Help w/ a $55M portfolio?

Trust me, if I had a 60m portfolio I would spend 700k per year. :happy A few thoughts (probably not very Boglehead like): - I would diversify much more internationally. I would aim for a 50/50 split and I would put a good portion of international in emerging markets (people such a Grantham are forec...
by ge1
Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help w/ a $55M portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 6981

Re: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.

Thanks for the replies, I didn't expect this many. I know some of you guys are just trying to help but I don't appreciate being told I shouldn't be managing the money due to my age and my lack of knowledge; that's why I came here! So I'd prefer more advice on the numbers/math side and less on why I...
by ge1
Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.
Replies: 105
Views: 14213

Re: Those of you with alot of money, how did you do it?

Both wife and I have good careers Wife made 2 great real estate investment when she was young We made another great real estate investment together, followed by a bad one, so I guess that cancels each other out :D We spend a lot but still manage to save a lot Live in a cheap house (house price clear...
by ge1
Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those of you with alot of money, how did you do it?
Replies: 81
Views: 9400

Re: Rick Ferri's Interview - Own Stocks to Offset Low Rates

Interesting interview. I agree with Rick's assessment that bond returns are likely unattractive going forward, however I disagree that equities are a good investment at these levels. Based on trailing 1 year earnings the market may look reasonable, however profit margins are at records levels and I ...
by ge1
Sun Apr 07, 2013 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's Interview - Own Stocks to Offset Low Rates
Replies: 130
Views: 12401

Re: CPA exam

Sorry for resurrecting this old thread, but I finally got my license yesterday (yeah!) and good luck to everybody currently studying!
by ge1
Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CPA exam
Replies: 39
Views: 5043

Re: Windfall / Sell of business - AA advice

Agree with landy, 70% equities seems too high. How would you feel if you lost 2.5m in a bear market? Personally I would probably aim for 50% equities. Given how much the market went up recently, I would also think about how to put that money into market (lump sum vs DCA), I would suggest to DCA over...
by ge1
Fri Apr 05, 2013 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall / Sell of business - AA advice
Replies: 15
Views: 1104

Re: How did you make your million(s)?

High incomes for both my wife and gains from selling properties. Plus obviously savings.
by ge1
Thu Nov 08, 2012 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you make your million(s)?
Replies: 81
Views: 11813

Re: $800 to burn on fitness related expense

personal trainer sessions
by ge1
Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $800 to burn on fitness related expense
Replies: 35
Views: 1765

Re: Which book covers Wall St. Problems of last decade?

I probably ready most of the books out there on the financial crisis and my favourite 3 were

Michael Lewis - Big Short (much better than Boomerang)
Andrew Ross Sorkin - Too Big to fail
Hank Paulsen Bio - On the Brink
by ge1
Fri Sep 21, 2012 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book covers Wall St. Problems of last decade?
Replies: 23
Views: 1573

Re: Possible mid-life crisis - please help

wamfan - interesting post. I can certainly relate to your situation. Same age as you and earning good money as well, but luckily enjoy my job more :) Even so, my wife and talk a lot about downsizing / working less etc and at some point in the hopefully not too distant future there will be a point wh...
by ge1
Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible mid-life crisis - please help
Replies: 94
Views: 11714

Re: CPA exam

Completely agree with hillman: I use the Becker material and the books and CDs with homework are excellent. They teach you exactly what will be asked at the exam. And I didn't even attend any classes or watched any of the lectures you get from Becker as well. Just a matter of being disciplined. I gu...
by ge1
Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CPA exam
Replies: 39
Views: 5043

Re: CPA exam

MoneyTalks - did you get the results? Thankfully I passed Audit. Actually had my highest score yet (94), which was odd as I didn't have a good feeling after the exam at all... Started studying for my last section (Reg) today. Not motivated at all, but I'll give myself time and at least this is the l...
by ge1
Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CPA exam
Replies: 39
Views: 5043

Re: What was Your Starting Salary Out of College?

115k in today's dollars in Financial Industry.
by ge1
Wed Aug 08, 2012 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What was Your Starting Salary Out of College?
Replies: 151
Views: 8858

Re: How much do you save?

On a very good combined income, we roughly save 1/3, pay taxes 1/3 and spend 1/3
by ge1
Tue Aug 07, 2012 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you save?
Replies: 44
Views: 5777

Olympics TV coverage

I must have forgotten how bad the TV coverage of the last Olympics was, but this is just awful. I tend to go to bed around 10pm so all I see at NBC every night is Beach Volleyball and Diving! Growing up in Europe, I'm used to watching every event live - and if the Olympics would be in a different ti...
by ge1
Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Olympics TV coverage
Replies: 2
Views: 438

Re: Let's talk about the Olympics

Love the live streaming!

Beijing was unwatchable for me with all the delays and commercials, this is great. The app on my iPad seems to be working well as well. I doubt that they get high ratings on prime time, but this is the future of watching sport events.
by ge1
Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:21 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Let's talk about the Olympics
Replies: 115
Views: 9593
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