Search found 952 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 49
Views: 2599

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

My equity/bond allocation, like Robert T's is high, and I choose only high quality intermediate term bonds for the same reason. I also keep a large (2 years living expenses) cash cushion in Prime Money Market Fund. I am retired and have no income other than SS and stock or money market sales. I want...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new "bond king's" protection from Greece and Puerto Rico
Replies: 3
Views: 913

Re: The new "bond king's" protection from Greece and Puerto Rico

It is not surprising that someone whose livelihood flows directly from investors' purchases of his bond funds is a strong advocate for those bonds he has so wisely chosen in his portfolio. He is apparently now suggesting safer bonds like Treasuries and GNMAs, but in the not too distant past he was a...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone noticed the Japanese stock market lately?
Replies: 15
Views: 2181

Re: Has anyone noticed the Japanese stock market lately?

fredflintstone wrote: A lot of us had written off Japan, but the Nikkei 225 is up about 135 percent in the last three years. This stock market boom occurred despite massive appreciation in the Yen. Actually I think you mean depreciation rather than appreciation in the Yen. The Yen has depreciated a...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock "dividend variability" Why?
Replies: 49
Views: 4617

Re: International stock "dividend variability" Why?

Part of the dividend variability is due to changes in relative valuations of currencies. Dividends on INTL stocks are paid out in local currency. The dollar has been appreciating dramatically relative to the Euro, Yen, and EM currencies particularly in the last year or so as the FED ended QE and has...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6716

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

ajacobs6 wrote: How much is too much for emerging markets? I agree with you on everything and would like to steer away from the U.S. In my opinion that depends on a lot of things that are highly personal: your long term goals, your need, willingness, and ability to take risk in return for expected ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 155
Views: 14302

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

Yet again the ugly can is kicked down farther the road, demonstrating the weakness of monetary union without political union. Whatever happens ultimately I do not believe its impact on financial markets and the world economy will be nearly as great as the Lehman collapse and the financial crisis of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1777

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

Very interesting thread. A few things, not all, are clear for me. For most of us, EM bonds, whether denominated in dollars or local currency, do not belong in US based bond portfolios due to their instability during market and political crises which is the central reason we hold bonds. Second dollar...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2975

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Thanks, nedsaid and Simplegift, for your input. The Templeton fund is not available to me without a considerable commission which rules it out. Reviewing EM unhedged bond fund performance, recent years have not been good probably because many EM currencies have depreciated against the dollar, a prob...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2975

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Simplegift wrote: Which raises an intriquing question: Why not treat emerging market debt as part of one's equity allocation to begin with? When I compare the growth chart of a plain vanilla emerging markets bond fund (such as T. Rowe Price's, in blue below) with an emerging markets stock index (in...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 40
Views: 5192

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

nedsaid wrote: My reaction to the article is that most everything is riskier than you think. Quality bonds are relatively safe but might have risks that an investor has not considered. Everything is riskier than we think because we don't know the future and that we don't know everything. My reactio...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6716

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Does anyone hold any small cap emerging market funds? I have held both EWX and DGS in the past and now hold only DGS in order to simplify at bit. In the INTL allocation I strongly tilt to both small cap (50% SC and 50% LC) and to EM (50% EM and 50% DM). I use TISM, VSS, plus s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2975

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Interesting post as usual, Simplegift. I tend to agree that both US and DM stocks and bonds are going to face demographic headwinds in the future. Deficits and debt will be added to that list of challenges in the US and DM, again presumably more than in EM. These are rationally sound reasons to cons...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 7024

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Unfortunately, I tend to agree with Cliff Asness's (and Bill Bernstein's) rather dim view of stock and bond returns going forward. We don't know if they're right or not and the market seems to take delight in reminding the most intelligent and most knowledgeable analysts that it is not predictable b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side (proposed series)
Replies: 35
Views: 4456

Re: The Other Side (proposed series)

Simplegift wrote: For a more detailed treatment of demographics and stock and bond returns, this recent article may be helpful: Whither Bonds, After the Demographic Dividend?, by Rob Arnott. I read this article and although it paints a grim picture for developed economies going forward, too grim in...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Honor Roll 2014
Replies: 4
Views: 743

Re: Forbes Honor Roll 2014

Average expense ratio of US equity funds on the list is in excess of 1%. No Vanguard index funds in the list. Makes one wonder how much advertising money Forbes Magazine receives from actively managed mutual fund companies. While some of these funds are undoubtedly well managed and have very good lo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5076

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

nisi wrote:

I thought that was exactly GarlandWhizzer's point. The fund based on the comparable asset class, but not using momentum, beat the fund that used momentum.


You hit the nail right on the head, nisi. That was exactly my point.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5076

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

countmein wrote: Also, VUG is not comparable to a momentum fund because it has a zero momentum load. Agreed, I never claimed that VUG was attempting to use MOM or any factor techniques at all. It is merely a simple large cap growth index. The reason I compared it to the factor fund, MTUM, is that i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5076

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

stulz wrote: Over its existence, MTUM has beaten the market by a good amount. It also has an ER of .15%. Actually an appropriate index comparison to MTUM is VUG, Vanguard's growth index ETF. Both have similar cap weightings (mostly LC with some MC) and both specialize in the growth area rather than...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 13, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31308

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Robert T wrote: Over the last 45 years defensive stocks have delivered higher returns than the most aggressive stocks, and defensive strategies, at least those based on volatility, have delivered significant Fama and French three-factor alphas. This performance is not at all anomalous, however, aft...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 108
Views: 8679

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

Robert T wrote: FWIW - the historical returns of the underlying indexes of VUG and MTUM from Jan 2002 - May 2015 were respectively: CRSP US Large Cap Growth = 7.1% MSCI USA Momentum = 9.4% The indexes paint one picture, the real fund returns paint another. I got my results simply from Morningstar g...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 108
Views: 8679

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

Robert T wrote: . About 1 year on from the OP - Returns over last 12 months: iShares USA Momentum = 15.7% iShares S&P 500 Growth = 12.9% iShares Core S&P 500 = 10.7% iShares S&P 500 Value = 8.1% iShares S&P 600 Value = 7.0% One year results on MTUM have been good. Since the MTUM fun...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap (Value) Tilt vs. Market Weight
Replies: 52
Views: 6082

Re: Small Cap (Value) Tilt vs. Market Weight

nedsaid wrote: The US Total Stock Market Index is a perfectly fine investment. In fact, it is the largest holding in my retirement portfolio. If you wanted that to be your only US Stock Market investment, it would be a wonderful investment. I choose to overweight mid-caps and small-caps in my portf...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk Bond default rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1324

Re: Junk Bond default rates

TwobyFour wrote: Postby TwoByFour » Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:45 pm What I have always wanted to know is how defaults affect a HY bond fund like VWEHX. They don't report defaults or recoveries in the annual report that I could find so it is hard to know exactly what the effect is. My understanding is that ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach: "Bonds will end 2015 right where they started"
Replies: 19
Views: 2980

Re: Gundlach: "Bonds will end 2015 right where they started"

nisi wrote: Point #1: the Fed raised its rate by 4.26%, but the 10-year rate only rose 0.78%. Point #2: So, what happened to Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund the last time the Fed raised "rates?" A total gain of 10% over that three-year period. Is that really so devastatingly terribl...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Substituting Income Annuities For Bond Funds in Retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2620

Re: Substituting Income Annuities For Bond Funds in Retirement

When you're talking about insuring for longevity risk, the chance of living a very long time, you have to take into account the erosive power of inflation on nominal non-inftalion adjusted fixed payments as with most SPIAs. Although the monthly payments may look attractive now, they won't look so go...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Four Fund Portfolio
Replies: 103
Views: 10456

Re: Vanguard - Four Fund Portfolio

I personally don't see the need for allocating to International bonds. I prefer US bonds which in my view currently offer a better safety/yield profile than say Germany or any other safe low risk DM. In addition you don't have to pay currency hedging costs in a US bond portfolio and, after all, US i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Its not data mining - not even close
Replies: 11
Views: 2646

Re: Its not data mining - not even close

Mr. Asness has written a very compelling article and made a compelling argument. There are however a few points that may cloud the crystal ball going forward for factor investors. First, as he admits (he is an honest and very bright guy, not a snake oil salesman, which I respect) is the question of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 07, 2015 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31308

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I think the point needs to be made that putting you money under the mattress or burying it in the back yard also is certain to be a strategy which dramatically diversifies returns relative to being long on equities, long on bonds or any other asset class, short on equities, short on bonds or any oth...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 136
Views: 12417

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Alpha is not the strength of it imo - it is reduced draw-down in bear markets. You side step these events by in large but tend to miss out on the upswing early phase coming out of it as well. Good point but it seems to me that if the strategy becomes widely followed, the draw-...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 136
Views: 12417

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I have a very simple point of view on Dual Momentum investing. It purports to do two things: to produce excess gains over simple indexes on historical analysis and to be simple enough for the average investor to employ if he reads the book on how to do it. I suspect that its alpha, if it ever existe...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 9398

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Simplegift wrote: One observation of interest: Much has been written about the decline of dividend yields for U.S. stocks over the last 40 years, from over 4% in the 1980s to around 2% today. However, if one considers both the dividend yield of U.S. stocks, plus their net "buyback yield" ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 02, 2015 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 9398

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Wagnerjb wrote: How can this be? The company has to use real money to buy back the shares. That money would be generating earnings in the meantime. So, you reduce earnings by using real money to buy shares, and you reduce the shares outstanding. I don't see how this can magically increase the share...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 02, 2015 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!
Replies: 29
Views: 4892

Re: Long term price trend for the S&P 500 - ouch!

simplegift wrote: When corporate profit rates begin to falter (which they no doubt will at some point, if they are not already slowing down), then stock prices should follow suit. This doesn't necessarily have to lead to a market crash, in my view — but it's worth noting just how high corporate pro...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 9398

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

SanDiegoFIRE wrote: Most companies don't issue debt to pay dividends - many have done just that to buyback shares Share buybacks can be either good or bad. Good when it's done as a wise decision and shares are well priced for future appreciation and bad when done as a form of financial engineering t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 01, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements on CNBC - invest 7 year new auto loan proceeds into market
Replies: 16
Views: 1816

Re: Clements on CNBC - invest 7 year new auto loan proceeds into market

Correction: Jonathan Clemens does not sell financial products, he sells books on investing. He may not be directly profiting from his advice but I personally think that taking out a 7 year car loan and investing the proceeds in equities is not sound advice for investors at this point in time. Garlan...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 01, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements on CNBC - invest 7 year new auto loan proceeds into market
Replies: 16
Views: 1816

Re: Clements on CNBC - invest 7 year new auto loan proceeds into market

The question here is leverage which works well in an exuberant bull market and can be disastrous in a severe bear market with debt service added to increased portfolio decline. Since no one can accurately predict these events in advance, adding leverage clearly involves increased risk especially so ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 29, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?
Replies: 17
Views: 1840

Re: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?

nobsinvestor wrote: For example, looking at immediateannuities.com today, a 500k SPIA will get you about $2,750 per month for a 65 year old male who wants payments to start in 1 month. Those figures imply that for the first 15 years and 2 months of your SPIA they are merely paying you back your own...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 27, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about longevity risk...this isn't good news
Replies: 22
Views: 3576

Re: Worried about longevity risk...this isn't good news

Same thing with long term care insurance. The insurance bean counters are looking at increasing longevity and realizing that these products carry a great deal of risk for insurance companies. Many companies are ceasing to offer long term care policies completely and premiums on existing policies are...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 27, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE Emerging Markets Index adds China A shares
Replies: 15
Views: 1579

Re: FTSE Emerging Markets Index adds China A shares

I have some concern about this as I hold considerable VWO. The Chinese A share market is in my opinion not an efficient market and therefore its prices undergo wide swings, recently roughly a 100% increase in prices over 12 months, a bad sign for future returns. Most markets that go up that much tha...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 25, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10083

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

NIsi wrote: We know that stock markets do go to zero--it's happened twice within the 23 national markets studied by Dimson & al. A broadly based globally diversified or totally US centric stock portfolio has essentially no chance of going to zero. Everything in the world simply does not become ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 24, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Good Investing Publications or Newsletters?
Replies: 13
Views: 1630

Re: Any Good Investing Publications or Newsletters?

Most who post on this Forum will disagree with me on this (I can anticipate the coming scourge) but I believe that Bob Brinker's Market Timer is worthwhile and usually sound investment analysis. No one is right all the time but Bob is right a lot more (1999 tech bubble, start of 2008 bull market) th...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 24, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near
Replies: 54
Views: 7357

Re: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near

Bill has been beaten up thoroughly on this forum and I feel that I have to stand up for him. We were in college together and I know that he's not a fool. I also agree with his current pessimism about US stock and bond returns going forward. Like him, I don't expect a dramatic crash but rather market...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 22, 2015 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not overweight international?
Replies: 37
Views: 3674

Re: Why not overweight international?

As you can tell not all US investors are in favor of international investing. Bogle and JoMoney on this forum are among those who see no reason to invest internationally. They give rational reasons for this choice. On the other hand Vanguard's research paper on this issue suggests somewhere between ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 22, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging market bond funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1539

Re: Emerging market bond funds

The good thing about EM bonds is their higher yields in a yield free developed market world. The bad thing is that in a severe market downturn they often do not perform the most basic function of bonds in the first place: stability of principal when stocks are collapsing and economies are contractin...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 21, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silver lining for bond fund NAV declines?
Replies: 33
Views: 3064

Re: Silver lining for bond fund NAV declines?

nobsinvestor wrote: Don't you guys think that in this "aggressive" Fed age, not to mention pressure from Wall Street/Corporate America, the Fed would be quick to slash/raise interest rates [thereby boosting bond prices] if we faced continuous high inflation or high deflation? In order to p...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 21, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor
Replies: 47
Views: 3285

Re: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor

nisi wrote: I think it is really hard to take the current "factor zoo" seriously. My personal interpretation is that all of the research on factors--including the original discovery of the "small-company effect" in 1981 and the Fama-French "value factor" in 1992--has o...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 21, 2015 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3034

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

This is a good interview and I respect Mr. Asness's intelligence, knowledge, and honesty. He isn't just a salesman pushing his products--how refreshing--but rather an astute student of the market who admits to the limitations of his or anyone else's predicting the market's future. I also agree with ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 20, 2015 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor
Replies: 47
Views: 3285

Re: Obtaining Exposure to Quality / Profitability Factor

ketawa wrote: No. For example, QSMLX has had a 1.05 loading on the market factor It is however interesting that over the life of the fund, QSMLX, it has not outperformed VB, Vanguard's plain old vanilla small cap fund which plays in the same small cap space and is a market weight fund. Presumably V...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 20, 2015 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silver lining for bond fund NAV declines?
Replies: 33
Views: 3064

Re: Silver lining for bond fund NAV declines?

If you hold onto your bond fund long enough increased yields will eventually catch up with decreased principal value while rates are rising. That however is in nominal dollars. If inflation intervenes, those nominal dollars may lose purchasing power over very long time frames. In real inflation adju...

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