Search found 972 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Sad State of the Financial Web, in 10 Charts"
Replies: 13
Views: 2266

Re: "The Sad State of the Financial Web, in 10 Charts"

Great post, Taylor. Thanks. For most investors the motto should be, "I have met the enemy and he is me."

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding forecasters accountable
Replies: 8
Views: 623

Re: Holding forecasters accountable

Great post, Larry. Thanks.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Labor Productivity
Replies: 7
Views: 501

US Labor Productivity

Labor productivity in the US historically has been a key part of our success in growing GDP, increasing corporate profits, and increasing wages without the necessity for cost push inflation. In recent years many of the benefits of increased productivity have not translated primarily to labor's benef...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates
Replies: 16
Views: 1264

Re: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates

Great and thoughtful post, Todd, as usual for you. It seems that many knowledgeable experts suggest that both bond and stock returns going forward from here are likely to be significantly below historical norms, both in real and nominal terms. Part of that decline will be mitigated in real dollars i...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 28, 2015 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 45
Views: 2477

Re: A bit of gold?

Gold is an extremely volatile and extremely unpredictable asset, both the metal itself and precious metals equity. Vanguard's PME fund sells for considerably less now than it did at the height of the financial crisis and market collapse in 2008-9. Investors uniformly hate gold and PME presently. Iro...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10
Replies: 83
Views: 6024

Re: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10

I tend to agree with HomerJ and Simplegift that tactical asset allocation changes based on a simple PE10 valuation formula is unlikely to produce the same positive results in the future as it has in the past. One big difference in the past and the present is the level of expected bond returns, the p...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3598

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

I believe that there is evidence on this question. If you're Warren Buffett sitting on cash and waiting to pounce on opportunity in severe market declines seems to work. He has a strong sense of what the long term intrinsic value of a company is, looks at it very closely on a company by company basi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 410
Views: 67597

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

In Rick's defense, he made a very prescient market call in 2009, suggesting that the worst was over in financial markets and that they were not going to implode. He predicted there would be a market rebound when many saw doom ahead. No one, however, who makes tactical market timing portfolio moves b...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3693

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

Robert T wrote: The portfolio in the book is: 28% stocks split: 14.0% US small value 10.5% Non-US Developed Small Value 3.5 EM value 72% bonds 5-yr T-notes This portfolio will be a great place to be in a Black Swan event. It also will be a great place to be for those who cannot tolerate a lot of po...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1407
Views: 278334

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

zaboomafoozarg wrote: I think the last 10%+ drop in the US market happened in July/August 2011, a couple weeks after I joined this forum and invested a lump sum in VTSMX. One of the most potent and sure ways to induce a market correction is to make a large lump sum equity investment. The inverse is...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Video Interview at NY Society of Security Analyst ETF Forum
Replies: 3
Views: 407

Re: Video Interview at NY Society of Security Analyst ETF Forum

Excellent interview. Rick makes a good point to be aware of in factor investing, the necessity to stick with it for the long term through thick and thin in order to reap the excess returns. That is very hard for most of us, but probably essential for the best outcomes. Also discusses the current cro...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 09, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobel Shiller selling US stock because of valuations -- does it make sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 2022

Re: Nobel Shiller selling US stock because of valuations -- does it make sense?

Meb Faber is in my opinion a smart and astute student of the market. His GVAL from Cambria funds follows a deep value strategy and loads up on beaten down countries as measured by CAPE plus other parameters. For example it has significant allocation to all the PIGS, Russia, Greece, Brazil, all in th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How aggressive are you in Taxable?
Replies: 37
Views: 3125

Re: How aggressive are you in Taxable?

TSM is a no brainer for equity exposure in a taxable account. It offers maximal diversification, great and predictable tax efficiency, and the lowest cost. There is no better long term holding in my opinion and your risk is no greater than beta. As for fixed income that's a bit more complex. The saf...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are US Gov Bond Yields Higher than German?
Replies: 13
Views: 1457

Re: Why are US Gov Bond Yields Higher than German?

I believe it to be irrational. Bill Gross said the German 10 year bond was "the short of the century" when its yield got very close to zero some months ago. Swiss 10 yr. bonds have negative nominal yields when purchased with Euros. Our Treasuries have about the same yields as Spain's bonds...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3343

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

grap0013 wrote: One has to be willing to wait many years. That is a big difference between having to wait 15 years IMO. Most of the time you do not have to. Much like stocks vs. bonds. I began tilting in 2010 and I have more money today than if I had not tilted. Just ask Robert T how much more mone...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6707

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Minimum volatility works both ways, to the upside and to the downside. In an exuberant bull market like the one we have had for the past 6 years it is expected to underperform. If what lies before us over the next decade is a continuation of the this exuberant bull run, minimum volatility will under...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor Sentiment 7-19-15
Replies: 3
Views: 829

Re: Investor Sentiment 7-5-15

Fear has overtaken greed it seems. For years there has been a background of potential global economic problems, Greece and EU, China's real estate and stock market bubble, Iran, tepid US recovery, sluggish or absent economic growth in Europe and Japan, high levels of debt, etc.. It seems that some o...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3536

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

Over time I expect that Chinese A shares will continue to decline from their very high valuations (PE about 40+ at the peak) and Chinese H shares (which is what most of us in INTL and EM funds own) will increase in their low valuations (PE about 13). Those two disparate PEs are likely to normalize m...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6707

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Maynard F Speer wrote: Maynard F. Speer wrote: The theory around trading is interesting ... But not understand exactly what's going on with the risk/return anomaly goes against a bit of a fundamental investing principle Presumably, at some point, people buying low-vol stocks now will push valuation...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 04, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 6707

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

According to standard CAPM theory there is a risk/reward tradeoff in all markets. The higher the risk, the greater the expected reward and the lower the risk, the lower the expected reward. Academic studies looking specifically at low volatility stocks have shown this basic assumption to be false in...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 61
Views: 5627

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

My equity/bond allocation, like Robert T's is high, and I choose only high quality intermediate term bonds for the same reason. I also keep a large (2 years living expenses) cash cushion in Prime Money Market Fund. I am retired and have no income other than SS and stock or money market sales. I want...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new "bond king's" protection from Greece and Puerto Rico
Replies: 3
Views: 979

Re: The new "bond king's" protection from Greece and Puerto Rico

It is not surprising that someone whose livelihood flows directly from investors' purchases of his bond funds is a strong advocate for those bonds he has so wisely chosen in his portfolio. He is apparently now suggesting safer bonds like Treasuries and GNMAs, but in the not too distant past he was a...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone noticed the Japanese stock market lately?
Replies: 15
Views: 2307

Re: Has anyone noticed the Japanese stock market lately?

fredflintstone wrote: A lot of us had written off Japan, but the Nikkei 225 is up about 135 percent in the last three years. This stock market boom occurred despite massive appreciation in the Yen. Actually I think you mean depreciation rather than appreciation in the Yen. The Yen has depreciated a...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 29, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock "dividend variability" Why?
Replies: 49
Views: 4775

Re: International stock "dividend variability" Why?

Part of the dividend variability is due to changes in relative valuations of currencies. Dividends on INTL stocks are paid out in local currency. The dollar has been appreciating dramatically relative to the Euro, Yen, and EM currencies particularly in the last year or so as the FED ended QE and has...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 7448

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

ajacobs6 wrote: How much is too much for emerging markets? I agree with you on everything and would like to steer away from the U.S. In my opinion that depends on a lot of things that are highly personal: your long term goals, your need, willingness, and ability to take risk in return for expected ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 25923

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

Yet again the ugly can is kicked down farther the road, demonstrating the weakness of monetary union without political union. Whatever happens ultimately I do not believe its impact on financial markets and the world economy will be nearly as great as the Lehman collapse and the financial crisis of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 2044

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

Very interesting thread. A few things, not all, are clear for me. For most of us, EM bonds, whether denominated in dollars or local currency, do not belong in US based bond portfolios due to their instability during market and political crises which is the central reason we hold bonds. Second dollar...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 3163

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Thanks, nedsaid and Simplegift, for your input. The Templeton fund is not available to me without a considerable commission which rules it out. Reviewing EM unhedged bond fund performance, recent years have not been good probably because many EM currencies have depreciated against the dollar, a prob...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 3163

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Simplegift wrote: Which raises an intriquing question: Why not treat emerging market debt as part of one's equity allocation to begin with? When I compare the growth chart of a plain vanilla emerging markets bond fund (such as T. Rowe Price's, in blue below) with an emerging markets stock index (in...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"
Replies: 45
Views: 7025

Re: "Target Date Funds Are Riskier Than You Think"

nedsaid wrote: My reaction to the article is that most everything is riskier than you think. Quality bonds are relatively safe but might have risks that an investor has not considered. Everything is riskier than we think because we don't know the future and that we don't know everything. My reactio...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 7448

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Does anyone hold any small cap emerging market funds? I have held both EWX and DGS in the past and now hold only DGS in order to simplify at bit. In the INTL allocation I strongly tilt to both small cap (50% SC and 50% LC) and to EM (50% EM and 50% DM). I use TISM, VSS, plus s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 3163

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Interesting post as usual, Simplegift. I tend to agree that both US and DM stocks and bonds are going to face demographic headwinds in the future. Deficits and debt will be added to that list of challenges in the US and DM, again presumably more than in EM. These are rationally sound reasons to cons...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8744

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Unfortunately, I tend to agree with Cliff Asness's (and Bill Bernstein's) rather dim view of stock and bond returns going forward. We don't know if they're right or not and the market seems to take delight in reminding the most intelligent and most knowledgeable analysts that it is not predictable b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side (proposed series)
Replies: 35
Views: 4626

Re: The Other Side (proposed series)

Simplegift wrote: For a more detailed treatment of demographics and stock and bond returns, this recent article may be helpful: Whither Bonds, After the Demographic Dividend?, by Rob Arnott. I read this article and although it paints a grim picture for developed economies going forward, too grim in...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Honor Roll 2014
Replies: 4
Views: 759

Re: Forbes Honor Roll 2014

Average expense ratio of US equity funds on the list is in excess of 1%. No Vanguard index funds in the list. Makes one wonder how much advertising money Forbes Magazine receives from actively managed mutual fund companies. While some of these funds are undoubtedly well managed and have very good lo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5324

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

nisi wrote:

I thought that was exactly GarlandWhizzer's point. The fund based on the comparable asset class, but not using momentum, beat the fund that used momentum.


You hit the nail right on the head, nisi. That was exactly my point.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5324

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

countmein wrote: Also, VUG is not comparable to a momentum fund because it has a zero momentum load. Agreed, I never claimed that VUG was attempting to use MOM or any factor techniques at all. It is merely a simple large cap growth index. The reason I compared it to the factor fund, MTUM, is that i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5324

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

stulz wrote: Over its existence, MTUM has beaten the market by a good amount. It also has an ER of .15%. Actually an appropriate index comparison to MTUM is VUG, Vanguard's growth index ETF. Both have similar cap weightings (mostly LC with some MC) and both specialize in the growth area rather than...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 13, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42464

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Robert T wrote: Over the last 45 years defensive stocks have delivered higher returns than the most aggressive stocks, and defensive strategies, at least those based on volatility, have delivered significant Fama and French three-factor alphas. This performance is not at all anomalous, however, aft...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 108
Views: 8884

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

Robert T wrote: FWIW - the historical returns of the underlying indexes of VUG and MTUM from Jan 2002 - May 2015 were respectively: CRSP US Large Cap Growth = 7.1% MSCI USA Momentum = 9.4% The indexes paint one picture, the real fund returns paint another. I got my results simply from Morningstar g...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 108
Views: 8884

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

Robert T wrote: . About 1 year on from the OP - Returns over last 12 months: iShares USA Momentum = 15.7% iShares S&P 500 Growth = 12.9% iShares Core S&P 500 = 10.7% iShares S&P 500 Value = 8.1% iShares S&P 600 Value = 7.0% One year results on MTUM have been good. Since the MTUM fun...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap (Value) Tilt vs. Market Weight
Replies: 52
Views: 6346

Re: Small Cap (Value) Tilt vs. Market Weight

nedsaid wrote: The US Total Stock Market Index is a perfectly fine investment. In fact, it is the largest holding in my retirement portfolio. If you wanted that to be your only US Stock Market investment, it would be a wonderful investment. I choose to overweight mid-caps and small-caps in my portf...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk Bond default rates
Replies: 13
Views: 1378

Re: Junk Bond default rates

TwobyFour wrote: Postby TwoByFour » Tue Jun 09, 2015 1:45 pm What I have always wanted to know is how defaults affect a HY bond fund like VWEHX. They don't report defaults or recoveries in the annual report that I could find so it is hard to know exactly what the effect is. My understanding is that ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach: "Bonds will end 2015 right where they started"
Replies: 19
Views: 3089

Re: Gundlach: "Bonds will end 2015 right where they started"

nisi wrote: Point #1: the Fed raised its rate by 4.26%, but the 10-year rate only rose 0.78%. Point #2: So, what happened to Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund the last time the Fed raised "rates?" A total gain of 10% over that three-year period. Is that really so devastatingly terribl...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 09, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Substituting Income Annuities For Bond Funds in Retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 2794

Re: Substituting Income Annuities For Bond Funds in Retirement

When you're talking about insuring for longevity risk, the chance of living a very long time, you have to take into account the erosive power of inflation on nominal non-inftalion adjusted fixed payments as with most SPIAs. Although the monthly payments may look attractive now, they won't look so go...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Four Fund Portfolio
Replies: 118
Views: 14139

Re: Vanguard - Four Fund Portfolio

I personally don't see the need for allocating to International bonds. I prefer US bonds which in my view currently offer a better safety/yield profile than say Germany or any other safe low risk DM. In addition you don't have to pay currency hedging costs in a US bond portfolio and, after all, US i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Its not data mining - not even close
Replies: 11
Views: 2685

Re: Its not data mining - not even close

Mr. Asness has written a very compelling article and made a compelling argument. There are however a few points that may cloud the crystal ball going forward for factor investors. First, as he admits (he is an honest and very bright guy, not a snake oil salesman, which I respect) is the question of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 07, 2015 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42464

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I think the point needs to be made that putting you money under the mattress or burying it in the back yard also is certain to be a strategy which dramatically diversifies returns relative to being long on equities, long on bonds or any other asset class, short on equities, short on bonds or any oth...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 136
Views: 13390

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Alpha is not the strength of it imo - it is reduced draw-down in bear markets. You side step these events by in large but tend to miss out on the upswing early phase coming out of it as well. Good point but it seems to me that if the strategy becomes widely followed, the draw-...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 136
Views: 13390

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I have a very simple point of view on Dual Momentum investing. It purports to do two things: to produce excess gains over simple indexes on historical analysis and to be simple enough for the average investor to employ if he reads the book on how to do it. I suspect that its alpha, if it ever existe...

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