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Re: Question on investing/ personal finance newsletters....

I think Bob Brinker is as good as anyone. He's not always right--made a bad call to get back into tech too early in 2000-1--but he was right about the tech bubble in 1999, predicting a collapse well before it happened, and also about when to get back into the market both in 2003 and in 2009. He is m...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on investing/ personal finance newsletters....
Replies: 7
Views: 565

Re: Vanguard Low Cost Actively Managed Funds

Vanguard has some excellent low cost actively managed funds that in most time frames outperform their comparable indexes. Most Bogleheads keep all of their equity in index investing but there are heretics here. There is nothing wrong in my opinion with sprinkling in a couple of low cost actively man...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Low Cost Actively Managed Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1391

Re: 60/40 returns with 0 downside: the Ultimate Larry Portfo

Whatever the graph purports to show I simply do not believe that 60/40 returns with 0 downside risk is possible going forward from here. Same return, less volatility, no risk--it sounds too good to be true. Most things like that ultimately turn out to be untrue. It may have worked well over the time...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60/40 returns with 0 downside: the Ultimate Larry Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 2931

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

nedsaid wrote: The key is to stay invested and not get obsessed with news headlines and market predictions. The news from our media outlets is skewed negative so you have to learn to deal with relentless pessimism. Just remember that the future belongs to the optimists. You need optimism to see opp...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 39
Views: 2211

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

It is a bit confusing for me at least. At first there was a small factor which was easily measured by market cap alone. Then there was a question about its existence apart from value, such that most or all of the value premium existed in small. The small premium in itself had become supposedly stati...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 60
Views: 5702

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai

Yes, China is still deleveraging from a property bubble and an excess production capacity bubble based on an export driven market which is long gone. The degree of the collapse in its property bubble, if that is the right term, is likely to be much less than ours in the US in my opinion. People have...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai
Replies: 27
Views: 4031

Re: “How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making?”

This is something we should consider and come up with a plan well before we lose our marbles. The problem of course is finding the right answer. Simple approaches are to get a financial manager or advisor (many of these including a low cost service offered by Vanguard), to simply purchase one of Van...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making?”
Replies: 54
Views: 2750

Re: Tobias Moskowitz on value and momentum

Good point on risk and SCV, Robert. Those who hold it through thick and thin are likely to be rewarded for their patience. There clearly is a risk story with SCV. Increased returns are not a free lunch but rather greater return for owning stocks that are more vulnerable and therefore tend to be mis-...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobias Moskowitz on value and momentum
Replies: 19
Views: 2080

Re: Tobias Moskowitz on value and momentum

Robert T wrote:3-year annualized return (%) to end-2014 22.6 = Powershares RAFI Fundamental Pure Small Value (PXSV) 21.9 = Guggenheim S&P 600 Pure Value (RZV) 21.9 = DFA US Tax-Managed Targeted Value (DFTVX) 21.5 = Vanguard Small Value (VBR) 21.5 = DFA US Small Value (DFSVX) 21.0 = iShares S&am...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobias Moskowitz on value and momentum
Replies: 19
Views: 2080

Re: MSCI Switzerland Index Return

50 to 1 leverage? How did regulators let them get away with that?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI Switzerland Index Return
Replies: 9
Views: 865

Re: Tobias Moskowitz on value and momentum

I don't think there's any question that on backtesting momentum and value look like a great pair together, especially SCV and LCMOM. The real question is can actual funds and etfs capture these factors in a cost effective manner for average investor. The academic research is based on long/short port...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tobias Moskowitz on value and momentum
Replies: 19
Views: 2080

Re: To what extent are European stocks better value than US?

PE of DM are not very different from the PE of the US market. PB and dividends are considerably better for DM than US. It depends on how you define value. European and Japan PE are low largely because of low E due to persistently stagnating economies. When and if their economies get on a solid growt...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To what extent are European stocks better value than US?
Replies: 9
Views: 826

Re: RA Expected Returns update yearend '14

lazyday, I've been doing the same thing as you and I'm still waiting. My confidence, rightly or wrongly, isn't gone. It only improves as Treasury yields get progressively lower and US stocks climb higher and higher. Currently EM is 50% of my international exposure and international is 40% of my equi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RA Expected Returns update yearend '14
Replies: 10
Views: 1158

Re: Time to protect against rising inflation?

richard wrote: Remember that every debt has a borrower and a lender. Repaying a debt decreases the money the borrower has, but increases the money has. This is an excellent point. Problem is that when the borrowed money goes back to a bank lender who has lost massive amounts of money on highly leve...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to protect against rising inflation?
Replies: 31
Views: 2644

Re: High Net Worth Investing

The problem in preparing for extreme events is that the exact nature of the event cannot be anticipated beforehand and therefore preparation is usually ineffective. The last extreme event was a collapse in real estate and a financial collapse so it is likely that someone preparing now would certainl...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 16, 2015 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Net Worth Investing
Replies: 84
Views: 10821

Re: Time to protect against rising inflation?

nedsaid wrote: My life has seen nothing but credit expansion that has occurred since the end of the great depression and certainly since the end of World War II. Perhaps that long credit cycle has ended and perhaps we are seeing the reverse. Perhaps the financial crisis in 2008-2009 was the big gam...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to protect against rising inflation?
Replies: 31
Views: 2644

Re: RA Expected Returns update yearend '14

The concept behind fundamental value investing is to buy something that everyone else hates and avoids largely because of its obvious risk and volatility, the more obvious the risk, the greater the discount. The Russian market whose risk is obviously enormous now currently sells at Shiller PE10 in t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RA Expected Returns update yearend '14
Replies: 10
Views: 1158

Re: Burton Malkiel interview

Malkiel seems to have a negative view of fundamental indexing, factor investing, and active management. Sounds a lot like Bogle in that regard.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel interview
Replies: 12
Views: 1095

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

grap0013 wrote: QSPIX has been positive every single trading day in 2015. That is 8 for 8. Hopefully this is not buy high for me. Low correlations (even intrafund), high real expected returns, and low volatility. Sounds too good to be true honestly. So far it's backing it up though Wish grap0013 th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 270
Views: 30767

Re: Diversification... Alternate Theory?

ned said wrote: You should diversify across asset classes and you should do the best job constructing a portfolio based on what you know now. The past gives us an idea of what might happen in the future but its predictive capabilities are fuzzy at best. So pretty much you build a portfolio with sev...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification... Alternate Theory?
Replies: 11
Views: 1451

Re: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas

I like TurboTax. It's not perfect but when it comes to taxes nothing else is either. If you think it's expensive try an accountant to get a better perspective on tax preparation costs.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas
Replies: 52
Views: 7087

Re: What was your costliest investment mistake?

Using margin to recoup losses as tech stocks collapsed in 2000 was my second biggest mistake. Being taken in on a real estate Ponzi scheme, losing 100%, qualifies as my biggest. Beware of smooth talking men in fine Italian suits letting you in on a great deal over an delicious meal at a nice restaur...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your costliest investment mistake?
Replies: 119
Views: 9568

Re: High Yield junk Bonds & interest rates

There is evidence that in a rising rate or inflationary environment high yield bonds (junk bonds) do outperform investment grade bonds both corporate and Treasuries. These conditions are generally associated with lower default rates on high yield bonds and their higher yields and typically shorter d...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield junk Bonds & interest rates
Replies: 2
Views: 476

Re: Performance of fundamental indexes

Robert T wrote: We can make this as simple or as complicated as we want. For me: - Determine what is needed in retirement - Select a target factor exposure based on needed returns and willingness and ability to take risk (also based on expected savings and expected factor returns). - Select funds th...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Performance of fundamental indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1807

Re: We miss Larry Swedroe

I'll add my name to the long list of those who appreciate and learn from the astute comments by Larry, Rick, Bill, and other such luminaries. Forum members get to tap free of charge into the brains of the some of most rational and accomplished students of the market and investment advisors. We learn...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We miss Larry Swedroe
Replies: 28
Views: 7433

Re: Performance of fundamental indexes

Robert T wrote: . “Over the long haul, what matters is factor exposure and expense” – Bill Bernstein. Any comparison that doesn’t take these two elements into account is a bit meaningless. There are exceptions to Bill Bernstein's rule above. Portfolio Visualizer defines many strongly tilted factor ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Performance of fundamental indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1807

Re: Psychology vs. Fundamentals of investing

livesoft wrote:
I am always questioning the conventional wisdom whether it comes from Wall Street or Bogleheads.


1+

I am the third person who's given livesoft a 1+ on his comment which in itself says a lot about what a great post he made.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Psychology vs. Fundamentals of investing
Replies: 61
Views: 4494

Re: At Vanguard Active beats Passive

I believe that the most reliable investment strategy for the majority of equity investors is low cost index funds, plain, simple, and reliably guaranteed to beat the average actively managed fund. That is not to say that But I also believer that a small minority of private investors or fund managers...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's stockpickers outperform.... [news article]
Replies: 61
Views: 3593

Re: Beware of Investing Based on Rising Rates

The FED's projections about the economy as well as most market analysts have been consistently wrong and consistently overoptimistic for years. Remember the great inflation scare of early 2013 when bonds tanked even while economic growth stagnated and inflation decreased? That was based on the overo...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beware of Investing Based on Rising Rates
Replies: 22
Views: 2103

Re: Aren't we in the midst of a deflationary downturn?

I do not believe that we in the US are in deflation or are on our way there at present. We may have short term adjustments due to the collapse of oil prices but in the long run it will stimulate our economy. Bond rates are low not because the economy is tanking but rather because it is the safe have...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we in the midst of a deflationary downturn?
Replies: 20
Views: 2096

Re: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years

The Larry portfolio is designed mostly to protect principal value from loss using a high percentage of the highest quality bonds and reducing equity exposure. It concentrates its equity exposure on the equity class that has historically outperformed, SCV, in an attempt to increase equity returns per...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years
Replies: 16
Views: 2554

Re: Immediate payable annuity is a bad investment?

bfwolf wrote: Bfwolf » Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:06 am I think it's high time for a Boglehead Mutual Insurance Company to be formed for the purpose of offering inflation-indexed immediate and deferred annuities at competitive rates. It would be run at cost, and what with it being the Boglehead Mutual Insur...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Immediate payable annuity is a bad investment?
Replies: 61
Views: 4685

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I agree with nedsaid and shellfish and am rather surprised, shocked might be a better word, about the passion from those who decry tactical asset allocation or market timing moves of any degree at any time. If you wish to have a static asset allocation that's fine with me and I suspect fine with oth...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 226
Views: 25562

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

Perhaps these predictions aren't surprises but here goes... Returns on US equity and bonds will be positive but considerably lower than last year. Small caps will not outperform large caps in the US again in 2015. US REITS which had a fantastic 2014 will come back down to earth in 2015, positive ret...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 76
Views: 7441

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Very interesting. The question is: has the market already priced in the heightened risks of default, etc., in EM and DM in general? The Shiller PE10 of the Russian market is currently about 5, 80% less than ours. Likewise Brazil stocks have taken huge hits and currency devaluations relative to the d...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 226
Views: 25562

Retirement planning and longer lifespans

From a Vanguard website article posted today: According to one study by the Society of Actuaries, there is roughly a 50% chance at least one partner of a male/female couple who are age 65 today will be alive at age 93. For unmarried individuals, a 65-year-old man has a better-than-50% chance of livi...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement planning and longer lifespans
Replies: 10
Views: 742

Re: What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?

Many things are driving LT Treasuries: reaching for higher yield than ST or LT bonds by retirees who need safe income, the widespread belief that inflation will remain persistently low for years going forward, the fact that LT interest rates are less volatile than ST rates in the face of a slowly ri...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
Replies: 17
Views: 1877

Re: Jason Zweig: Lessons learned from the year of surprise

The real underlying purpose of experts making market predictions is to make weather forecasters look good. This they achieve with good reliability. It is part of human nature, the drive to know the future before it happens. Hence forecasts persist in spite of their rather dismal record for accuracy....
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Lessons learned from the year of surprise
Replies: 18
Views: 3512

Re: Article dissing VTSMX-opinions?[Merriman on diversificat

ogd wrote: The thing that worries me most about factors going forward is not the proposition that the factors were accidental in the past. That, like you say, seems to be invalidated by extending the analysis to out of sample data, and I'm ready to accept that maybe it wasn't an accident. What worri...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 28, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article dissing VTSMX-opinions?[Merriman on diversification]
Replies: 42
Views: 2904

Re: Jim Cramer yesterday on CNBC

Cramer is a Wall Street guy. In the past I believe he managed a hedge fund--may be wrong on that but at any rate, like most other Wall Street guys, he managed a lot of money and traded frequently. When you're working with huge amounts of money, moving in and out of specific stocks quickly, you neces...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 28, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer yesterday on CNBC
Replies: 13
Views: 3494

Re: Research Affiliates article on size premium

Robert T's suggestion to look at MOAT as an example of Buffett's approach is a good and interesting one. The rationale behind the etf is compellingly presented in their video presentation available at http://www.vaneck.com . Its approach winds up with a tilt toward value in LC and a tilt toward grow...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 26, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates article on size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 4040

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

Stocks are expensive but so are bonds and REITS, perhaps even more so. In US markets at present it is difficult to find real value anywhere. Personally I don't believe that this is a moment in which tactical asset allocation changes are likely to produce good results going forward. You'd be switchin...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 26, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 59
Views: 6987

Re: Research Affiliates article on size premium

Robert T wrote: In my view a better proposition than attempting asset class rotation/timing is to set a fixed allocation, which will do okay in different market conditions - and stick with it. For example - consider the period - 1985-1999, where small value underperformed (re: the data Taylor period...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates article on size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 4040

Re: Research Affiliates article on size premium

nedsaid wrote: Investing is a very humbling experience. Once one thinks he has it all figured out, a rare event occurs in the market, and he marvels at how little he really knows. Market surprises really do happen. I also have to allow for the fact that I might be wrong. Thus I do a whole lot of thi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 25, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates article on size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 4040

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

gatorman wrote: Postby gatorman » Thu Dec 25, 2014 9:14 am AQR's take on the case for momentum and how to setup momentum portfolios: http://www.aqrindex.com/resources/docs/ ... mentum.pdf This article made a compelling case for momentum investing and indicated that AQR believed its index, as represe...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 116
Views: 13644

Re: Research Affiliates article on size premium

Robert T's post is as always informative, interesting, and insightful. He seems to suggest that there is a risk tradeoff for CRSP decile 10 stocks, the only decile that shows really significant outperformance. Risk as measured by bond yields, a good measure of risk, is higher in that decline, explai...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 24, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates article on size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 4040

Re: How can Bond Funds perform better than yield

There are several elements of return in bonds, apart from default risk which, if it occurs, obviously lowers returns. First is the yield which currently is low across the board. Second is the change in principal value of existing bonds in a portfolio which is variable depending on whether interest r...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 24, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can Bond Funds perform better than yield
Replies: 15
Views: 1538

Research Affiliates article on size premium

RA argues in new paper that current research suggests the size premium is not now statistically significant and hasn't been so since 1981 when it was first described. This applies to both US and all international markets. Interesting--shortly after it was discovered it disappeared or at least weaken...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates article on size premium
Replies: 42
Views: 4040

Re: Keynes’s Investment Principles

Apparently Keynes emphasized both size and the value factors in his investments and got results that considerably bested market averages. When he was investing these factors were unknown and unpopular. Hence they provided rich veins to mine for outperformance relative to beta. Times have changed. Ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 22, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keynes’s Investment Principles
Replies: 23
Views: 4100

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Apparently, the momentum factor requires lots of trading, especially if applied in a long-short strategy and if applied to small caps where much of the premium arises. So the problem it appears to me (not an expert in this arena) is not whether or not the factor exists and is robust, but whether or ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 21, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 116
Views: 13644
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