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Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

The charting of the MOM factor by Research Affiliates in gatorman's prior post ([url]https://www.researchaffiliates.com/Our% ... actor.aspx[/url] is quite interesting to me. It shows that MOM factor was significantly positive every year for 40 years, 1974 - 2004, more positive than SmB or any other ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 106
Views: 8591

Vanguard’s 2015 global outlook

[Thread merged and link fixed by admin LadyGeek.] On the Vanguard website today, their global economic and investment outlook for 2015. They do not paint a rosy picture and suggest that both small caps and high dividend-income stocks may be currently overvalued. According to Vanguard's Davis, look ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's economic and investment outlook [2015]
Replies: 21
Views: 2712

Re: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk

Interesting, the tradeoff between term risk and credit risk. I wonder if there is another factor involved in this situation now. Many analysts believe that the Fed will start raising interest rates in mid-2015. As the fed can only increase short term rates, those rates rise typically more precipitou...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Risk vs. Term Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 925

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

It is hard to argue against Bogle and Buffett, neither of whom see any need for investing outside the US. I believe this is rational but in this case I believe there are other equally rational ways to look at it. Whenever we see a lot of 100% US equity posts on the Forum, one thing seems certain: US...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11448

Re: Leverage and P/e10

Leverage has theoretical appeal, no doubt about it. At its root is the idea that you're confident that you know where the market is going and in your investing time frame it is going to go up. The problem is that it is extremely difficult to know what your investing time frame is. Unexpected financi...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage and P/e10
Replies: 35
Views: 2391

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds

Safe assets which do relatively well in an inflationary environment certainly TIPS come to mind, that is if you're willing to sign on now in a low inflation environment for a long term slightly negative real inflation adjusted return and tax inefficiency. It's important to remember that depending on...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 2883

Re: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?

There are reasons why there are so few products offering guaranteed inflation adjusted yields and why those that do exist yield so little and are so expensive up front. When you pay someone else to bear all the risk, they're going to charge you a great deal for it. Their business plan calculations h...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?
Replies: 31
Views: 2396

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

VWO does seem cheap now and has been for some time. That doesn't mean that it can't get cheaper as I know all too well. The risks of EMs are clear to all and this is fully reflected, perhaps over-reflected, in current prices. As a fundamental valuations guy, I have overweighted EMs for years (50%EM/...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18389

Re: Investing more when the market is down.

nedsaid wrote: I think this is a premature discussion. Weren't we at market highs on Thursday? The market falls 300 points on Friday and we are talking about a down market. We are down maybe 2% from the market high. So far, this is just a blip on the radar. If the market did go down substantially, ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing more when the market is down.
Replies: 22
Views: 2295

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

It of course depends on how you define a black swan. Birinyi's definition is a bit looser than mine. Clearly the sudden and severe drop in oil prices was severe and unexpected, part of the definition of a black swan. But I believe this to be a tempest in a teapot. The market will not only recover fr...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 87
Views: 7645

Re: Is monthly rebalancing too frequent?

Simple answer to monthly rebalancing. Yes, it is too frequent.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is monthly rebalancing too frequent?
Replies: 26
Views: 1507

Re: What's the correlation between REITs & Interst Rates?

I'm not an expert on REITS, but my understanding is that REITS as high dividend entities do better in a low interest rate environment where dividend income is scarce and therefore more valuable. As interest rates rise, REIT dividends may look relatively less attractive to income seeking investors, a...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the correlation between REITs & Interst Rates?
Replies: 2
Views: 393

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

I don't know. Robert T will know and he has shown that data for specific funds in the past. Perhaps try a personal message to him.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 106
Views: 8591

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

gatorman wrote: 3. Your overall recommendation as to the best value etfs for use in a value-momentum portfolio and an explanation as to your reasons for thinking they are the best. I suspect Robert T would be in the best position to advise you on this since he does thorough analysis of etf premium f...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 106
Views: 8591

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

When a genuine black swan event occurs you won't have to ask the question. It will be totally obvious like in 2008-9. The decline in oil prices certainly does not qualify. Ultimately low oil prices are good for consumers and should increase aggregate demand and stimulate the economy as a whole. The ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 87
Views: 7645

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

I don't think it makes much difference whether you choose TSM of the S&P500 index and I don't believe that Buffett thinks it makes much difference either. Buffett has always been focused on large cap US stocks, his area of expertise. Berkshire Hathaway has had far too much money to invest for ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8104

Re: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?

If you're going to make tactical asset allocation changes based on extreme market swings, I suggest you do it modestly. I make these myself from time to time but only with a small percentage of my portfolio because of the risk of error. Doing this requires two decisions, a buying decision and a sell...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 1598

Re: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holding

Some Forum members seem to suggest there is only one appropriate portfolio that works for everyone, that Portfolio X is inherently better than Portfolio Y. I do not believe this to be true. We are all different with different tolerances for risk, financial goals and needs, attitudes about investing ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4170

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Fund - Question

It's important to note that even though the dividends of tax free munis are not taxable federally they are added as income into Alternative Minimal Tax calculations. So if you're on the borderline for AMT and have considerable muni distribution income, be aware of this. Likewise, I believe, with the...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Fund - Question
Replies: 8
Views: 1076

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

Thanks, gatortman, for these informative posts.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 106
Views: 8591

Re: Oil's future...

Some years ago, when oil was selling for about $130 a barrel T. Boone Pickens predicted it would go to $200 a barrel in 12 months. Rather than going up more than 50% as Pickens predicted it proceeded to go down considerably over the next 12 months. I don't think he's a gifted seer when it comes to p...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil's future...
Replies: 56
Views: 6057

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I tilt but with a modest 25% of my portfolio, the rest in TSM. I think the small factor will be negative going forward for at least a year perhaps more due to the current overvaluation of small cap stocks. Therefore I no longer tilt to small, only to value and momentum, and at present predominantly ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8737

Re: What's wrong with VTIAX?

Poor international fund results are largely the result of all the bad news out there. Let's start with Europe: no growth, risk of recession, aging demographics, looming deflation, huge levels of debt, high taxes, rigid labor markets, and political paralysis of the basic EU framework with a stalemate...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with VTIAX?
Replies: 63
Views: 7447

Re: Global Outlook by Region

I believe Simplegift's analysis hits the nail on the head.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Outlook by Region
Replies: 5
Views: 668

Re: The 7% Solution--Prefereds, a retirement income diversif

Let's make this simple. There is no safe 7% solution anywhere in the investing world at this time. Period. You can save yourself time and trouble by not looking for one.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 7% Solution-Preferreds, a retirement income diversifier?
Replies: 3
Views: 657

Re: Bogle on the past and future of investing

Great interview. I never grow tired of listening to Bogle. I don't agree with him on every single point all the time but I always learn something from seeing how the investing world looks through the eyes of a wise and experienced giant in that world. Unlike many other investment experts he has used...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on the past and future of investing
Replies: 15
Views: 2156

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

ladders11 wrote: I could agree with your sentiments regarding the US SCV, however to me there is compelling value in EM SCV. Evidence of this would be the 13.3 PE for DGS compared with 20.3 PE for VTI according to the fund providers websites as of the end of the 3rd quarter. I totally agree with you...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 07, 2014 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2123

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

One cautionary note on using history as the only indicator. In 1950, stock dividends were greater than bond yields and they had been higher consistently in the US for the preceding 80 years. The theory which explained this was accepted by all, academics, professional investors, and amateurs alike: t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7202

Re: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting

It appears that DFA has concluded that the value premium has been absent in this asset class for the last 5 years, or at least it has not been captured by DFEVX, their value fund, based on the outperformance of its core fund. Hence investors are getting impatient and the fund has been rolled into th...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A less common risk to emerging markets value tilting
Replies: 32
Views: 2123

Re: Long-short funds like QSPIX and regulations?

As a non-options and non-leverage guy, I don't really understand exactly how much risk QSPIX is taking on with their leveraged long-short offsetting positions. All I can say is that reviewing the numbers makes me a bit uneasy in terms of risk. One problem with leveraged option bets is that it is ent...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 06, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-short funds like QSPIX and regulations?
Replies: 9
Views: 660

Re: S&P 500 Returns Explained?

I think both the yen carry trade which is quite strong now and share buybacks which have been strong for years have had positive effects on the S&P 500. These, plus to a lack of compelling investment alternatives, help to explain the wide divergence between US equity performance over the past 5 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Returns Explained?
Replies: 1
Views: 468

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Random Walker and others have made an interesting point about portfolio diversification with a style premia fund. Clearly it does provide diversification, more than I had expected to be honest. According to Mr. Asness, the founder of AQR, better diversification to equities even than bonds. I suppose...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20344

Investing Wisdom from Experts

Nothing new but some things can't be said too many times. Rick Ferri, Alan Roth, and Mike Piper are always worth listening to.

[url]personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/investing-wisdom-122014[/url]

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Wisdom from Experts
Replies: 3
Views: 733

Re: Merriman's Perspective on VG TSM

I believe that Merriman has a hidden agenda for his piece against Vanguard and TSM that has its roots in either financial or ego driven motivation. It may be Vanguard's and TSMs growth in popularity, prominence, and assets under management in contrast to the ever lowering pubic confidence and dimini...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 155
Views: 18296

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

matjen wrote: What exactly does QSPIX have to do to "show" you? As Robert pointed out, comparing it to VTI or VXUS is a straw man. Sure is doing well compared to what Morningstar believes are its bogeys and compared to Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund. Also, when everything else went down in...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20344

Re: Does the market ever err?

Simple answer to this question: yes, the market does sometimes err. How about another question: do you as an individual investor ever err? Another simple answer, yes. The real question is: can market errors in pricing can be detected accurately and exploited efficiently by individuals? The answer to...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the market ever err?
Replies: 23
Views: 1654

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

I think relative valuations between large and small caps vary in time and that extreme differences suggest future outperformance in one or the other. So it was in early 2000 when LCG was massively overvalued with PE10s never seen before or since, while SCV had been neglected for years and were langu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7202

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Robert T wrote: At the end of the day, it comes down to belief - what each investor believes. Staying the course is what matters. Belief is needed to stay the course. If you don't believe the value premium will exist in the future, just hold the market portfolio. No problem. There can be long period...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20344

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

oneleaf wrote: I actually have a very conservative portfolio (approx 50/50 stock/bond at age 37), so I can tolerate some serious volatility on the stock side. I am also using PXH (emerging value) and have a high international allocation (60% international). I am a strong believer that cheap beats ex...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 44
Views: 5271

Re: RAFI vs. DFA

Robert T wrote: Annualized returns 2006-2014 YTD 9.0% = Powershares FTSE RAFI US 1000 7.8% = DFA US Large Cap Value 7.9% = DFA TM Marketwide Value 8.3% = Vanguard TSM That is impressive performance for PRF which uses a sophisticated multi-factor approach to maximize returns. In this case it has outp...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI vs. DFA
Replies: 127
Views: 23762

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

oneleaf wrote: Built a position in October in this ETF. Holding for the longterm. Patience will be required with GVAL. Seduced by its compelling international valuations and its methodology done by a very astute guy, Mebane Faber, I bought it at one time, assuring myself that eventually its strategy...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 44
Views: 5271

Re: World Stock Returns & GDP Growth, 1988-2013

Great post, Simplegift. Gives us much to think about.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World Stock Returns & GDP Growth, 1988-2013
Replies: 10
Views: 1412

Re: The Whole Ball Game Of Equity Investing As I See It

nedsaid wrote: by nedsaid » Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:15 pm The most important thing is to get invested, it is easy to get into analysis paralysis and do nothing. I believe that broad diversification is better than narrow diversification and this is one reason I like index funds. Active mutual funds will ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Whole Ball Game Of Equity Investing As I See It
Replies: 33
Views: 4477

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Robert T's post in reply to mine was, as all his posts, excellent. Being a skeptic however I have one point of disagreement, not about looking at factor loads retrospectively and correlating them with past returns, but about future returns as performed by real funds and ETFs based on past factor res...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20344

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Rereading my previous post, I realize I made a mistake with regard to the outperformance of TSM versus RALS, the long short value fund. Since its inception 4 years ago, TSM has outperformed it by 75% but RALS investors who have zero return in 4 years still have 100% of their original investment, not...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20344

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Robert T wrote: The AQR core funds, try to remedy this dilution, through combining value and momentum sorts in one fund – to get a resulting portfolio value and momentum load larger than could be achieved by adding component funds together in a portfolio (although at the cost of much higher turnover...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 28, 2014 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20344

Re: Small cap value premium

JoMoney wrote in reference to the varying PE's of large versus small cap stocks over the last decade But it looks to me like we can account for that difference in return by the Price the market was willing to pay relative to Earnings Small-Value's P/E went up 1.82 times it's 1998 level ( 19.6 * 1.82...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 27, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 14392

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

One point that should be mentioned in the question of long/short factor seeking funds as opposed to simpler plain vanilla index funds. The Proshares Rafi Long/Short fund, RALS, has over the last 4 years produced essentially a 0 return according to Morningstar, perhaps less than that after taxes if t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 27, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 20344

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

magneto wrote Even the most ardent supporters of watching market valuations (and adjusting allocations to buy more stocks when on offer, and reduce stocks when pricey) [BHs do this anyway to a lessser extent when rebalancing] ; are unlikely to adopt such an extreme course as staying 100% in cash bec...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Great post, Simplegift. One necessary factor to keep a bull market going is skepticism in sufficient quantity to create a wall of worry. When investors as a group don't see any risk ahead--which is not the case today in my opinion--that has historically been the time to really get worried. So it was...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955
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