Search found 1005 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 02, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 618
Views: 69615

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

There is no doubt that QSPIX has done well relative to US and INTL equity during its short lifetime in these volatile markets. Lets compare its results to another fund that invests globally with the aim of long term capital gains and lowering overall portfolio volatility, Vanguard's Global Minimum V...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 55
Views: 2411

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

Maynard F Speer wrote: From what I gather, QSPIX (like many hedge funds) uses a fair bit of leverage - perhaps its secret weapon So in essence, I assume, all they need to do is identify the inefficiencies, then they can leverage exposure to a determined level of risk ... Therefore as style premia g...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?
Replies: 55
Views: 2411

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

Factor investor managers are now generally admitting that factor premiums are likely to be smaller in the future than they were in the past. The question is not will the premiums survive in the future. The important question is: will premiums be captured by the pre-set parameters of existing funds i...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 9
Views: 1239

Re: Making Sense of the Market Crash with Jeremy Siegel

Interesting post, matjean, thanks for posting it. Jeremy has an unshakable faith in equity markets particularly in the US. He is a counterforce to all the doom and gloom types in the financial media. While I don't always agree with him about everything, I do tend to have the same optimistic bias. I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't the 3 fund portfolio have TIPS?
Replies: 38
Views: 2717

Re: Why doesn't the 3 fund portfolio have TIPS?

BobK wrote: Further, in LCF there is a strategy for reaching your retirement goals, something that is noticeably lacking in the conventional three fund approach. There are other things lacking in the 3 fund approach relative to the LCF strategy which involves annuities. Large commissions for the LC...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Prices (equity) higher than Fundementals
Replies: 2
Views: 342

Re: Asset Prices (equity) higher than Fundementals

Interesting piece, itstoomuch, thanks for posting.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Messy Fund Managers Create an Illusion of Skill
Replies: 8
Views: 897

Re: Messy Fund Managers Create an Illusion of Skill

Excellent post, Rick, thanks. It suggests that style drift largely accounts for those few managers who are successful at beating their chosen style indexes. They do so by migrating out of losing indexes into winners, in effect short term performance chasing which is usually a losing long term strate...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23935

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

TwoByFour wrote: I am not acting on his advice. I view bonds as just as risky to my retirement as stocks. Inflation, unforeseen events that upset my carefully laid plans make Dr. Bernstein's advice unsound, IMO. I am staying the course. The game is not over until we are six feet under. 1+ I complet...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2322

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

I totally agree with Simplegift's thoughtful analysis of the forces (declining workforce growth, aging demographics, and lowering productivity growth) which if they continue are very likely to challenge our achieving past historical returns on both stocks and bonds going forward. In simple terms eco...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?
Replies: 82
Views: 5310

Re: How many here follow Bogle's "no international" theory?

Great chart, Simplegift, thanks for posting it again. Certainly makes Bogle's point that even a US only portfolio is widely diversified in terms of its sales and profits. This is a rational argument for a US only equity portfolio which has significant international exposure built into it or a 75/25 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?
Replies: 45
Views: 3117

Re: A deeper look at gold. What's the "right" price?

Rick thinks that gold is worth about $500/oz., less than half of what it sells for now. Larry's post suggests it objective price based on past history and inflation is about 825/oz. but that an overshoot to the downside might take it much lower than that. The gold bugs have been so discredited by th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 19, 2015 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 7816

Re: Piling into emerging markets

Wow, I'm impressed by the fortitude of some of you who are piling into or rebalancing into beaten up EM now. As for EM my personal allocation is 20% of equity, same as DM, and I've been shoveling money into that black hole for years. My shoulders are now so sore from all that shoveling that I've set...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Market Strategy
Replies: 18
Views: 2499

Re: Bear Market Strategy

If you're in your 20s, presumably with a 50+ year investing horizon in front of you, it is appropriate in my opinion to at least consider 100% equity allocation, broadly diversified. It is incredibly likely that if you do not sell into bear market weakness along the way that it will outperform any p...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2060 fund 8% cash?
Replies: 9
Views: 1389

Re: Vanguard 2060 fund 8% cash?

It does seem odd. A couple of possible explanations. Don't know if redemptions have been an issue with this fund but conceivably they may prefer to have a liquid cash like cushion so they're not forced to sell long term investments at potential losses whenever investors want their money back. Anothe...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced Portfolio Vulnerable to Inflation?
Replies: 46
Views: 3539

Re: Balanced Portfolio Vulnerable to Inflation?

nedsaid wrote: Garland, I agree with your comments but is Real Estate a commodity? This is the first time I have seen Real Estate defined as such. Could you offer clarification? I'm not an expert on commodities or the definition of them, so I looked up what is in commodity indexes. REITS are not in...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this time different?
Replies: 42
Views: 4161

Re: Is this time different?

I agree with nedsaid and EnjoyIt. When market sentiment has reached extremes of optimism or pessimism, it has historically been a strong negative indicator for future market action. In other words, bear markets often are precipitated by excessive optimism rather than pessimism. Today's market isn't ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 15, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced Portfolio Vulnerable to Inflation?
Replies: 46
Views: 3539

Re: Balanced Portfolio Vulnerable to Inflation?

dangerous wrote: Never have I even mentioned commodities. Commodities are a terrible investment because they have a cost to carry and therefore a negative yield, and therefore should never ever be owned as an investment, not even as a hedge. I think you're overstating the case against commodities h...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced Portfolio Vulnerable to Inflation?
Replies: 46
Views: 3539

Re: Balanced Portfolio Vulnerable to Inflation?

I think Dangerous makes a good point about inflation. A long period of significant and increasing inflation produces persistently negative real returns in traditional bonds and real returns in stocks that are close to zero. Given current TIPS yields, you might expect slightly positive real returns o...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 13, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets
Replies: 64
Views: 6748

Re: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets

backpacker wrote: The longer I've invested, the more I've come around to the view that most portfolio decisions just don't matter. Find some way to own a reasonably large number of stocks from a reasonably large number of industries. Have some bonds or cash or something that will help you get throu...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 13, 2015 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard / Schwab Security Issue
Replies: 16
Views: 1681

Re: Vanguard / Schwab Security Issue

Personally, I have no problem with Vanguard's website security and do not wish for them to make it more complex. I believe it is complex enough at present. The financial media knows that fear sells, and having very few stories of merit worth telling and a lot of dead air time to full up, they tend t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 7
Views: 995

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

The Morningstar style boxes are interesting and they show that PXSV and RZV are much smaller cap and much more value laden than VBR. Does that mean that they are destined to outperform VBR in the future? I personally don't know the answer to that question and I am skeptical that anyone does with a r...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 7
Views: 995

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

For the record according to Morningstar graphs, VB, Vanguard's SCB index ETF, has outperformed PXSV 1 MO, 3 MO, YTD, 1 YR, 3 YR, 5YR, 10 YR, and since PXSV's inception more than 11 years ago. I realize that PXSV has changed indexes at least once, perhaps more than once, during that period in attempt...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate cash, dividends, and buybacks
Replies: 0
Views: 137

Corporate cash, dividends, and buybacks

There are large positions of cash on corporate balance sheets presently. Also the combination of share buybacks and dividends which in sum have risen in recent years indicate that corporations are returning significant amounts of profits and cash to shareholders. This is generally good for sharehold...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a practical, low-cost implementation of Momentum + Value strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 946

Re: Is there a practical, low-cost implementation of Momentum + Value strategies

nedsaid wrote: Larry Swedroe recommended to AQR Large Multi Style Fund. I do not own it myself. This fund, QCELX, is an interesting multi-factor fund (V, MOM, Profitability) constructed according to academic research findings to both outperform and have lower volatility, but it requires a minimum i...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 10, 2015 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Stocks Will Be Much Higher
Replies: 25
Views: 5081

Re: Buffett: Stocks Will Be Much Higher

To be clear, Buffett said that stocks are going higher, perhaps a lot higher 10 to 20 years from now. Higher in 10 to 20 years isn't such a big hurtle to jump over. Note the two qualifiers: first, the holding period (10 -20 years), definitely long term and in truth most of us expect that over a deca...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 08, 2015 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why hold corporate bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4427

Re: Why hold corporate bonds?

Robert T wrote: For a equity oriented portfolio (75% stock) I see no compelling evidence to include coporate bonds in fixed income portion. Have not been disappointed to far. I believe this to be sound and solid advice. I don't fully follow it, but I do believe it to be the most rational bond alloc...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 08, 2015 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate forecasts are garbage and best ignored
Replies: 20
Views: 1961

Re: Interest rate forecasts are garbage and best ignored

Great post, nice. Thanks.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 08, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?
Replies: 46
Views: 3885

Re: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?

Note that the comparison charts show DFA and IFA portfolios NET OF FEES. IFA which authored the piece charges a fee of 0.90%/yr. for the first 500K of investment portfolio to employ their DFA based portfolios in addition to the DFA fund costs. The total cost of their portfolios is therefore well ove...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the battle of the factor models
Replies: 24
Views: 1371

Re: the battle of the factor models

Two things are clear. First that there is dynamic and robust academic activity in academic circles in the area of researching factor models to explain stock returns. Part of this is the inherent publish or perish pressure in academia and part may represent new discovery. It is hard for me distinguis...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]
Replies: 57
Views: 4675

Re: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]

Larry wrote: Now the size premium is complicated because of the awful performance of small growth stocks with low profitability---which can be screened out-- but of course reduce the size premium When the size premium was first described it was robust and there was no mention of screening out small...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why hold corporate bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4427

Re: Why hold corporate bonds?

JoMoney wrote: The correlations between stocks and bonds have changed over time, and there's no saying if any effect you hope correlations will have will be the case over some other period. But the yields on corporate bonds can be significantly better, so if you're looking to the bonds for their in...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much of HELOC should I get assuming responsible use?
Replies: 7
Views: 886

Re: How much of HELOC should I get assuming responsible use?

Credit is a two edged sword, cutting both ways. Many who would have easy access to it (myself included) choose to have none of it. I have learned from experience that fixed debt obligations can be very troublesome at the worst financial times. I suggest you seriously consider costs and risks when lo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 01, 2015 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?
Replies: 47
Views: 4890

Re: Ready to Give Up on Emerging Market Stocks?

nedsaid wrote: People should know going in that Emerging Markets are a volatile asset class and that these markets run hot and cold. Right now they are running cold but that isn't a reason to give up on them. As they say, every dog has its day. At some point, Emerging Markets will be hot again. It ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Sad State of the Financial Web, in 10 Charts"
Replies: 13
Views: 2586

Re: "The Sad State of the Financial Web, in 10 Charts"

Great post, Taylor. Thanks. For most investors the motto should be, "I have met the enemy and he is me."

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding forecasters accountable
Replies: 10
Views: 1122

Re: Holding forecasters accountable

Great post, Larry. Thanks.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Labor Productivity
Replies: 7
Views: 607

US Labor Productivity

Labor productivity in the US historically has been a key part of our success in growing GDP, increasing corporate profits, and increasing wages without the necessity for cost push inflation. In recent years many of the benefits of increased productivity have not translated primarily to labor's benef...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates
Replies: 63
Views: 6642

Re: The Long-Term Decline of Interest Rates

Great and thoughtful post, Todd, as usual for you. It seems that many knowledgeable experts suggest that both bond and stock returns going forward from here are likely to be significantly below historical norms, both in real and nominal terms. Part of that decline will be mitigated in real dollars i...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 28, 2015 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 45
Views: 2641

Re: A bit of gold?

Gold is an extremely volatile and extremely unpredictable asset, both the metal itself and precious metals equity. Vanguard's PME fund sells for considerably less now than it did at the height of the financial crisis and market collapse in 2008-9. Investors uniformly hate gold and PME presently. Iro...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10
Replies: 83
Views: 6242

Re: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10

I tend to agree with HomerJ and Simplegift that tactical asset allocation changes based on a simple PE10 valuation formula is unlikely to produce the same positive results in the future as it has in the past. One big difference in the past and the present is the level of expected bond returns, the p...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

I believe that there is evidence on this question. If you're Warren Buffett sitting on cash and waiting to pounce on opportunity in severe market declines seems to work. He has a strong sense of what the long term intrinsic value of a company is, looks at it very closely on a company by company basi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 80186

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

In Rick's defense, he made a very prescient market call in 2009, suggesting that the worst was over in financial markets and that they were not going to implode. He predicted there would be a market rebound when many saw doom ahead. No one, however, who makes tactical market timing portfolio moves b...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3869

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

Robert T wrote: The portfolio in the book is: 28% stocks split: 14.0% US small value 10.5% Non-US Developed Small Value 3.5 EM value 72% bonds 5-yr T-notes This portfolio will be a great place to be in a Black Swan event. It also will be a great place to be for those who cannot tolerate a lot of po...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1992
Views: 381497

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

zaboomafoozarg wrote: I think the last 10%+ drop in the US market happened in July/August 2011, a couple weeks after I joined this forum and invested a lump sum in VTSMX. One of the most potent and sure ways to induce a market correction is to make a large lump sum equity investment. The inverse is...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Video Interview at NY Society of Security Analyst ETF Forum
Replies: 3
Views: 447

Re: Video Interview at NY Society of Security Analyst ETF Forum

Excellent interview. Rick makes a good point to be aware of in factor investing, the necessity to stick with it for the long term through thick and thin in order to reap the excess returns. That is very hard for most of us, but probably essential for the best outcomes. Also discusses the current cro...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 09, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobel Shiller selling US stock because of valuations -- does it make sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 2043

Re: Nobel Shiller selling US stock because of valuations -- does it make sense?

Meb Faber is in my opinion a smart and astute student of the market. His GVAL from Cambria funds follows a deep value strategy and loads up on beaten down countries as measured by CAPE plus other parameters. For example it has significant allocation to all the PIGS, Russia, Greece, Brazil, all in th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 08, 2015 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How aggressive are you in Taxable?
Replies: 37
Views: 3221

Re: How aggressive are you in Taxable?

TSM is a no brainer for equity exposure in a taxable account. It offers maximal diversification, great and predictable tax efficiency, and the lowest cost. There is no better long term holding in my opinion and your risk is no greater than beta. As for fixed income that's a bit more complex. The saf...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are US Gov Bond Yields Higher than German?
Replies: 13
Views: 1487

Re: Why are US Gov Bond Yields Higher than German?

I believe it to be irrational. Bill Gross said the German 10 year bond was "the short of the century" when its yield got very close to zero some months ago. Swiss 10 yr. bonds have negative nominal yields when purchased with Euros. Our Treasuries have about the same yields as Spain's bonds...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3579

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

grap0013 wrote: One has to be willing to wait many years. That is a big difference between having to wait 15 years IMO. Most of the time you do not have to. Much like stocks vs. bonds. I began tilting in 2010 and I have more money today than if I had not tilted. Just ask Robert T how much more mone...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possible new lazy portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 7083

Re: Possible new lazy portfolio?

Minimum volatility works both ways, to the upside and to the downside. In an exuberant bull market like the one we have had for the past 6 years it is expected to underperform. If what lies before us over the next decade is a continuation of the this exuberant bull run, minimum volatility will under...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor Sentiment 7-19-15
Replies: 3
Views: 852

Re: Investor Sentiment 7-5-15

Fear has overtaken greed it seems. For years there has been a background of potential global economic problems, Greece and EU, China's real estate and stock market bubble, Iran, tepid US recovery, sluggish or absent economic growth in Europe and Japan, high levels of debt, etc.. It seems that some o...

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