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Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

ogd wrote: In the market, there are mutual funds attempting to do precisely this. We're talking professional fund managers, with PhD's on staff and supercomputers and nanosecondly news feeds. They are called tactical allocation funds. How do they fare in practice? Miserably: http://www.cbsnews.com/n...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 52
Views: 4968

Re: Coffee House - REIT or Commodity

backpacker wrote: William Bernstein suggests owning a precious metal producers fund in his latest book. To quote Bernstein directly: "If, and only if, you've had a disciplined long-term allocation to PME, it might not be a bad idea to now up your policy allocation to this asset class, which, It...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coffee House - REIT or Commodity
Replies: 9
Views: 835

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

I believe that the EMH generally sets an accurate price for assets. Largely due to emotional factors it is not always totally accurate. Whenever investor sentiment swings severely in one direction or the other, pricing error creeps into the market. Prices were too high for big cap tech in 1999, too ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1964

Re: "Jack Bogle on Warren Buffett, Bill Gross and How to Inv

I never get tired of listening to Jack Bogle. He is and always has been a giant surrounded by numerous noisy self-serving dwarfs in the investing business.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Jack Bogle on Warren Buffett, Bill Gross and How to Invest"
Replies: 17
Views: 2922

Re: "How to Win the Loser's Game -- Part 9"

Superb video! Thanks, Taylor.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Win the Loser's Game -- Part 9"
Replies: 6
Views: 1515

Re: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing

It is not difficult to look at past market history and derive in retrospect a formula that would have worked better than buy and hold indexing over a cherry picked time interval. It's a very simple exercise: buy low, sell high during this particular period and don't include fees, trading costs, or t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes Article On Active vs Passive Investing
Replies: 35
Views: 3860

Re: Stocks as long term investments

riptide wrote: Nedsaid always has excellent advice and words of wisdom for us that are younger, listen to him. Agreed, and that goes for those of us who are older too. My experience is much like nedsaids, starting out 25+ years ago with a portfolio dominated by individual stocks with a few actively ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 21, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks as long term investments
Replies: 57
Views: 4805

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

Jeff Albertson wrote:
The real puzzle, why would anyone watch CNBC?


It's okay to watch it, but it's very important to keep the mute button pressed.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3271

Re: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds

ogd wrote: Presently I would also consider US Treasuries, despite the currency risk problem, because they work very well alongside equities. 1+ US Treasuries are in my opinion a screaming, pound-the-table buy relative to any Euro zone sovereign bonds at present. German ten year bonds are yielding 1....
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 602

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

If deflation is limited to one country (Japan 1990 - now) the obvious way to beat it is to diversify internationally. If deflation is global as in the Great Depression, there are few places to hide (Treasuries, and T-bills, the latter yielding nothing but nothing theoretically zero return gets more ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3874

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Love the cartoon, autonomy. No matter how many times I see it, I still laugh. Unfortunately it is a good representation of stock trading reality.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30542

Re: Investing in Japan with Yen Hedged to USD or EUR

I am not an expert on this question, but I do strongly believe some basic principals about investing. First, the more complex and less diversified an investment strategy is, the less likely it is to achieve long term risk adjusted success. This strategy involves concentrated bets in Japan equity and...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in Japan with Yen Hedged to USD or EUR
Replies: 5
Views: 307

Re: Dealing with Volatility

Excellent insight and advice, Rick. Thanks.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dealing with Volatility
Replies: 14
Views: 1126

Re: why you might not want to buy what's popular

I'm with you, Larry, on not overweighting REITS and high dividend stocks for the same fundamental reasons. Having said that I'm still waiting to be paid off for my insight this year when both REITS and High Dividend Index have outperformed. I'm a fundamental valuation guy so I'll keep on avoiding ov...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why you might not want to buy what's popular
Replies: 8
Views: 1179

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

protagonist wrote: This is similar to the common feeling in Rome during the time of Marcus Aurelius following the century of Pax Romana and unprecedented growth of prosperity and security (not dissimilar to our current era). I wouldn't have wanted to base my investment strategy on Monte Carlo simula...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3095

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

kenyan wrote:
I don't disagree with most of your post, but what about 2011? Peak-to-trough was -19% in TSM, -17.5% S&P 500.


You're right. That one slipped my aging mind. Thanks for the correction.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 157644

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Stock prices ultimately come back to corporate earnings. Earnings tend to rise over time because populations increase (more people to sell goods and services to, more people to produce those goods and services) and because over time worker productivity increases due to technological innovation. Infl...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3095

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The last 5 years has been up to now a consistent uninterrupted bull market which historically is overdue for a correction and has been for some time. US small cap stocks are already in correction territory (>10% drop from highs). US large cap stocks still haven't hit correction territory although th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 157644

Re: Historical returns or current valuations to forecast fut

My personal investing experience has been solid over 25 years except for two areas: margin buying and leverage. I have learned the hard way that for me at least these two can be poison. Both leverage and margin buying have a cost structure that must be overcome to achieve improved results. But their...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns or current valuations to forecast future
Replies: 8
Views: 760

Re: Historical returns or current valuations to forecast fut

Bellavsky wrote: I think I can get 3% real, tax-free, on leveraged closed-end muncipal bond funds, currently trading at discounts of about 10%, with less risk than the stock market. Leveraged closed-end muni bond funds selling at 10% discount with a 3% real, tax free return and lower risk than the m...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical returns or current valuations to forecast future
Replies: 8
Views: 760

Re: Who should regularly contribute to taxable investments?

If your monthly income well exceeds your expenses and your ability to stash investment dollars away in tax deferred spaces, regular monthly investments into a taxable personal account is a great idea. If you're doing this I suggest TSM as the vehicle of choice because: 1. It is very tax efficient (l...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who should regularly contribute to taxable investments?
Replies: 34
Views: 3631

Re: How to win the loser's game #6

Nothing new but I loved it. I believe that viewing videos like this should be part of a person's educational experience. We now graduate legions of people from high schools, colleges, graduate and professional schools, etc., who know absolutely nothing about how markets work or the basics of investi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to win the loser's game #6
Replies: 2
Views: 973

The Rise and Fall of Performance Investing

A great new paper by Charles Ellis. Telling the truth simply and clearly about the superiority of index investing. There was a time long ago (50 years) when active management, if done very well, could produce returns that beat the market on a fairly consistent basis, largely because of market ineffi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 12, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise and Fall of Performance Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 534

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

Simplegift wrote: by Simplegift » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:33 pm Unless investors want to seek out cheaper, exceptionally risky assets (Russian equities, oil service stocks, etc.), today's high asset values all across the board point to lower expected portfolio returns for at least the next decade — and p...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5580

Re: A close look at factors in real world,

That is a fascinating and thoroughly researched paper, jaab, thanks for the post. Much food for thought.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A close look at factors in real world,
Replies: 18
Views: 2433

Re: Will Interm-Term Inv Grade Bonds Keep With Inflation?

dbr wrote: The two amount to perhaps 3% between TIPS and Investment grade that is explained by not understanding what TIPS yield means and what the extra risk is doing to help investment grade. TIPS may have more risk in duration. Believe it or not, dbr, I do understand the difference between a real...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Interm-Term Inv Grade Bonds Keep With Inflation?
Replies: 13
Views: 1288

Re: Monthly or annual returns for csrp indices

Thanks, jaab, for that data web site. Very comprehensive.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or annual returns for csrp indices
Replies: 9
Views: 665

Re: A close look at factors in real world,

Excellent post, Larry, thanks. Very interesting about the failure of hedge funds and institutions to significantly dilute the premiums up to now. The more thorny question it seems to me is not do premiums persist in long only portfolios after reasonable estimates of trading costs but how successful ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A close look at factors in real world,
Replies: 18
Views: 2433

Re: Will Interm-Term Inv Grade Bonds Keep With Inflation?

Steadfast wrote: If you are concerned about your bonds keeping pace with inflation, allocate an appropriate portion of them to TIPS in addition to nominal bonds. I have this concern and so I allocate 33% of bonds to TIPS in my IRA. Good point, Steadfast. The only problem is that at present Vanguard'...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Interm-Term Inv Grade Bonds Keep With Inflation?
Replies: 13
Views: 1288

Re: today's WSJ page 1...interesting

There are a few experts who have trading formulas that consistently beat the market. Obviously they must keep it secret so as not to overgraze the alpha while they continue to reap the benefits. Not many can do this, only a very few names come to mind. Bernard Madoff, "Sir" Alan Stanford.....
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: today's WSJ page 1...interesting
Replies: 22
Views: 3284

Re: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market

One point that Shiller made on which I totally agree is that investment asset prices, be they stocks, real estate, or bonds, are richly valued now by historical standards. If you wish to get any positive investment returns you have to put your money somewhere. Money therefore continues somewhat relu...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Anxiety Driving up the Stock Market
Replies: 42
Views: 4661

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Leeraar asked: garlandwhizzer wrote: The authors concluded that there was no evidence any of the indicators show predictability for future stock returns. Garland Whizzer Ah, yes. Does that include PE10 and its ilk? I do not believe that PE10 was included. PE10 is a fundamental indicator based on ear...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 157644

Re: Should small-value investors be buying small value now?

I believe in the value premium and the size premium but you must be aware that periodically these premiums disappear completely and sometimes turn negative for periods of longer than a decade. For example, market history generally shows long periods where large caps outperform small caps, 1990s for ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 05, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should small-value investors be buying small value now?
Replies: 14
Views: 1865

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Technical analysis seems to be a point of sometimes humorous disagreement between some on this forum. Larry recently posted a good article on academic research looking at technical analysis. Below is a direct quote from his article. It's worthwhile to read the whole thing but the take home message i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 157644

Re: Cramer's sane moment on Gross' exit

I don't like Cramer's manner or antics but I do agree with nedsaid that he is earnest in his attempts to help investors. He believes in the advice which he is giving. He makes some calls right and some wrong, like all active stock pickers but his motivation to help the average investor is, I believe...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 04, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer's sane moment on Gross' exit
Replies: 24
Views: 3182

Re: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stoc

nobsinvestor wrote: To throw out a slightly off topic point, what if you're a 65 year old or 70 year old retiree with 20-30% in stocks- do you take the chance that the international premium will be rewarded before you die, or stick with 100% of equities as US equities to be safe? That is a very good...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 02, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 3730

Re: Cramer's sane moment on Gross' exit

Now, if Cramer would just extend that same logic from bond investing to stock investing, i.e. moving from active management to index funds. That appears to be unlikely as it would put him out of a job.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 02, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer's sane moment on Gross' exit
Replies: 24
Views: 3182

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

ogd wrote: 1) share buybacks do not affect total return. It has been a bull market in total return as well, easily comparable to others which included more dividends. The big reason is the increase in corporate profitability, which can and has come even as unemployment and salary levels are mediocre...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4456

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

ogd wrote: 2) share buybacks do not affect PE ratios, since the # shares appears in both numerator and denominator. Companies who buy back shares can either hold them as investments (which doesn't affect share volume) or retire the shares, taking them off the market, which lowers share counts and in...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4456

Re: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stoc

nobsinvestor wrote: -Huge debt to GDP ratios and unemployment (except Germany, which is arguably propping up the entire Eurozone anyways) -Massively declining birthrates, especially Japan -Mass immigration of unskilled labor in Europe (burden on social services and adding no value to the skilled lab...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 3730

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

Where net buybacks put money in the investors pocket is through appreciation in of stock prices. Same corporate income, same book value, fewer shares. Hence the each share is worth more. The payoff for shareholders doesn't come until the market responds to these improved fundamentals and bids up the...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4456

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

I have a question. Many factor investors on this board believe that, other than DFA funds, PXSV is perhaps the best way to get small value factor exposure. According to Morningstar charts, PXSV has been around for almost 10 years and during that time it has underperformed VB, Vanguard's cap weighted...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 16509

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Doc wrote: But if you are behemoth like PIMCO are your costs really higher than that index fund? I don't know enough of the details, Doc, to say definitively but my intuition says that PIMCO has a higher cost structure than Vanguard. In stocks it's simple. An index can be run by a computer without p...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 29, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10087

Re: The volatility of premiums

Interesting post, Larry. Thanks. Risk and uncertainty are concepts that we must always keep in mind when it comes to investing. Both come in many flavors and there is no risk free solution in investing that I'm aware of. Do we focus on reducing risk in preparation for a black swan event or do we loa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility of premiums
Replies: 21
Views: 1495

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

valuethinker wrote: I had not noticed Berkshire Hathaway 'underperforming'? Or did you mean simply relative to its own past? Berkshire Hathaway has been outperformed by the S&P 500 over the last 5 years or at least that was the case at the beginning of 2014. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10087

Re: Will Investment Returns Ever Revert to "Normal"?

Great post, interesting. The future is unpredictable but it's quite a stretch when doing financial planning now to project past returns into the near and intermediate term future. Past returns from 1927 - 2013 are 9.5%/yr. for US large cap stocks and 4.9% for 10year Treasuries. Source of these figur...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Investment Returns Ever Revert to "Normal"?
Replies: 56
Views: 4496

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Irregardless of current problems which are numerous for Bill Gross, when you've had a very long and very successful (until recently) career like Bill Gross you can do what you want to do and when you want to do it. I do know that Pimco's stock went way down on the news and Janus's went way up which ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10087

Re: a look at technical indicators

Great post, Larry, and also some great humor in it. I have had through the years a number of friends who managed their investment decisions solely with technical analysis. Six months after a market event they could always precisely define the technical pattern that was operating. They are a diverse ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at technical indicators
Replies: 19
Views: 1751

Re: History of U.S. Inflation — Appearances Can Be Deceiving

Simplegift wrote: It's clear that when inflation has been moderate and stable, and not fluctuating from year to year, equities have performed well (chart below). It makes me wonder if the significant moderation in price fluctuations since 1980 hasn't contributed to the general rise in CAPE (PE10) va...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Inflation — Appearances Can Be Deceiving
Replies: 16
Views: 2439
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