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Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

I think berntson's post is insightful and makes two excellent points. First valuations matter, especially at extreme levels. This does not mean that it is an easy market timing decision as to exactly when to lighten up on overpriced equities as an asset bubble inflates, or conversely when to buy equ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 3602

Re: Schwab Fundamental Index Funds

nisi wrote: Huh? It's an index fund. Vanguard is not doing anything secret or proprietary, they are tracking an index--someone else's index--specifically the NASDAQ US Dividend Achievers Select Index. Here is the methodology of the Dividend Achievers Select Index: NASDAQ US Dividend AchieversTM Sel...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Fundamental Index Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1225

Re: Fundamental Indexing

There is perhaps an argument that a mixture of standard cap weighted indexes with fundamental indexes may be of benefit. Value tilting is a form of fundamental indexing (low PB, low PE, etc.) so those who tilt are using fundamental indexing strategies. A mixture of the two is what many of us, myself...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Indexing
Replies: 9
Views: 762

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

nisiprius wrote: Very seriously, mosu, Garland, in assessing Faber's credibility why doesn't GTAA matter? Well, it does matter and GTAA has severely underperformed TSM in the past few years since its inception. GTAA uses a very complex strategy involving a wide variety of asset classes--US equity, ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 21
Views: 965

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

I was writing about FYLD, international shareholder yield fund, rather than global value fund in my post above. Both funds run by the same team.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 21
Views: 965

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

Mebane Faber is smart student of the market and the funds he directs, (SYLD, Shareholder Yield Fund, US equity) and this international fund both have a heavy slant toward value and also toward what he calls shareholder yield (which is dividend rate plus net share repurchases (repurchases minus new s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 21
Views: 965

Re: Bernstein "blasts financial industry, backs 3-fnd portfo

So refreshing to read Bernstein who speaks the unvarnished truth exactly as his wise, insightful, and experienced eyes see it.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein "blasts financial industry, backs 3-fnd portfolio"
Replies: 15
Views: 3749

Re: Among Heroes and Villains

All Americans owe a great debt of gratitude to Rick and to all those who chose to put their lives at risk in order to serve and protect us and our country. In addition, Rick ultimately took a U turn in career path, rare on Wall Street, to decided to take fiduciary duty seriously and actually try to ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Among Heroes and Villains
Replies: 10
Views: 1091

Re: Why did Buffet Pick Vanguard SP500?

Historically Mr. Buffett is primarily a US large cap value investor. Looking at current measures of valuation between US large caps and small caps, most would agree that small caps are more richly valued than small caps relative to historical norms. Hence a value investor would not currently be draw...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did Buffet Pick Vanguard SP500?
Replies: 23
Views: 2848

Re: Quality premium is global

Very interesting, Larry. Thanks for posting. The question of course is how can the individual investor take advantage of these premiums in a practical cost efficient way. Some of them seem to be in conflict with each other. For example, value as measured by P/B versus quality and momentum which gene...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality premium is global
Replies: 13
Views: 1114

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

It seems to me that almost all financial assets in the US, stocks, bonds, REITS, are richly valued but not in bubble territory now. I'm not enthusiastic about adding to equity positions at this level. I'm not expecting a severe crash like 2008-9, but returns of all those classes going forward are li...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 07, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11523

Re: Why is Vanguard defending high frequency trading?

Michael Lewis has written a couple of very popular books, Liars Poker and The Big Short, both of which addressed what seemed to me more serious problems than his latest book about HFT. Both Bogle and Gus Sauter (who used to be head man at Vanguard) have stated that on balance HFT lowers transaction ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 04, 2014 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Joe Brennan defending high frequency trading?
Replies: 54
Views: 3487

Re: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market

I think this accusation of Bogle's market timing is a tempest in a teacup. I don't think that anyone should be held to total consistency in all investment decisions over a 3 or 4 decade time frame. Conditions change and it is not in my opinion unreasonable to periodically reassess conditions in a so...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 04, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market
Replies: 44
Views: 4919

Re: passive versus active

Most agree that in a rising market passive investing outperforms active because of lower costs, being fully invested, and the old adage that a rising tide lifts all boats. To your point, the argument has been made that in bear markets due to active's ability not to be fully invested and to use "...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 04, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: passive versus active
Replies: 25
Views: 1197

Re: The case against small cap value

I think that streptococcus makes a good case of questioning the wisdom of SCV tilting. I also think that Larry and Frans among others have made a good case for SCV tilting. In short, it isn't entirely clear which way for an investor to proceed. It is likely that if SCV outperforms TSM going forward ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 03, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5086

Re: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]

I confess up front I didn't see the 60 Minutes piece and that I'm not an expert on HFT. Apparently it has been generating positive and consistent alpha in recent years which is why it has thrived. My basic inner sense tells me that like other sources of alpha which can get overgrazed and disappear i...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 03, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]
Replies: 107
Views: 6180

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

RNJ wrote:2 thoughts: 1) By holding all of that cash aren't you de facto lowering your overall yield anyway? 2) One thing I like about Treasuries is that, in a real crisis (viz. 2008/9), a flight to quality allows one to sell them and buy distressed securities - something one cannot do (certainly n...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 60
Views: 5633

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

I totally agree with Bogle on emphasizing corporates over Treasuries in current bond portfolios. I own no Treasuries or TIPS at all, only corporates in my tax-advantaged accounts and either money market or munis in my taxable personal account. There is some increased repayment risk in investment gra...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 60
Views: 5633

Re: Were These Investment Advisors Lying or Incompetent?

One wonders why the MS brokers can't give you accurate cost details of the very proposals they are presenting. Having had bad experiences with brokers and investment advisors in the past, I tend to be rather cynical about their prime motive which I believe to be fattening their own wallet in prefere...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Were These Investment Advisors Lying or Incompetent?
Replies: 90
Views: 5879

Re: P/E vs PEG analysis

I believe that earnings projections for next year tend historically to be higher than the real earnings turn out to be for that year. Those who make these estimates are generally in the business of selling equity and are not immune to viewing the future optimistically which improves their current sa...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: P/E vs PEG analysis
Replies: 11
Views: 434

Re: My "Motley Fool" Interview

Great interview, Taylor, thanks for posting. The clear simple truth of index investing shines through nicely.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My "Motley Fool" Interview
Replies: 8
Views: 1864

Re: My interview with St. Louisian Charlie Brennan

Excellent and insightful interview, Larry. Thanks for posting.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My interview with St. Louisian Charlie Brennan
Replies: 5
Views: 717

Re: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So

If you want only large cap exposure, the Vanguard Mega Cap Index etf, MGC, is the way to go. It is more concentrated in the large cap arena and has only 2% in MCs. It is designed to be integrated with Vanguard's MC index and SC index with less overlap than either the S&P 500 index or the Large C...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So
Replies: 67
Views: 4250

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

cheapskate wrote: The silicon valley real estate bubble is caused directly by the new Internet Bubble and the tech IPO bubble. Recent IPOs (assuming they have any revenues at all), trade at valuations that are 40x-50x Sales (not Earnings). Happy days are here again ! Happy days are here until they'...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6332

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

I believe the residential housing market is slowing down in hot markets like California which suffered greatly during the collapse of 2007 -2009 and then promptly skyrocketed again. Much of this upswing in recent years was driven by all cash purchases, largely investors seeking income in a yield-fre...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6332

Re: Asset Allocation Question

At the age of 33 unless you may need to raid your investment assets for living expenses, I would invest 100% in stocks. Who cares if they go down in bear markets, which they inevitably will do, as long as you don't sell them into bear market weakness. If you're a panicky sort don't do it, but if you...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Question
Replies: 22
Views: 1275

Re: Dividends and the Magic Pants

nedsaid wrote:I believe that markets are largely efficient, though not perfectly efficient. For all intents and purposes, most investors should act as though markets are perfectly efficient. But for those who want to try to beat the markets a bit, I believe that there are exceptions to the efficien...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 23, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and the Magic Pants
Replies: 38
Views: 4553

Re: Higher Returns at Lower Risk - please comment

Frans, I think you've done outstanding research and present a compelling case for your approach. If you follow it completely and can hold on through the tough times, I think the probability is very high that you'll be rewarded with improved long term returns on a risk adjusted basis. It does take ro...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher Returns at Lower Risk - please comment
Replies: 55
Views: 5219

Re: Higher Returns at Lower Risk - please comment

Very interesting post, Frans, thanks for posting. Combining a risky, volatile asset (SVC) with the solidity of Treasuries is, based on 82 years of history, an efficient tradeoff between risk and return. Sort of a barbell approach, combining two extremes on the risk reward scale and producing somethi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher Returns at Lower Risk - please comment
Replies: 55
Views: 5219

Re: Enhancing the dividend yield strategy

For those interested in pursuing such strategies, take a look at SYLD, the Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF, which less than one year old and run by Mebane Faber. SYLD screens companies by dividend payout plus net debt repurchases plus net share buybacks, the combination of which they term shareholder ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enhancing the dividend yield strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 839

Re: PE10 And Its Rivals

Thanks, bernston, for this website address. Charts are very interesting and a great resource. Valuation is sometimes a more complex topic than it appears on the surface.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10 And Its Rivals
Replies: 23
Views: 1519

Re: Precious Metals & Mining Fund with -97.8 P/E Ratio?

The huge negative PE is likely a result of write-downs on corporate assets. Many mining companies made ill-fated investments in mines, land, etc., during the boom times of rising gold prices. Had they instead used their profits to increase dividends, do share buybacks, and pay down debt, shareholder...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Precious Metals & Mining Fund with -97.8 P/E Ratio?
Replies: 2
Views: 408

Re: A close look at the research on the carry trade

The expense ratio of QSPIX is 1.50%, 1.45% higher than VTI or Admiral shares of TSM. In certainly not an expert on carry strategies outperformance, but I do understand simple math. I believe the probability that over a long time period QSPIX will outperform TSM especially in after tax dollars is inc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 13, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A close look at the research on the carry trade
Replies: 7
Views: 1022

Re: second part of the series on preference for cash dividen

Arguments can be made on either side of this question, but I tend to side with Larry on this one and prefer total return over dividend based strategies. One of the attractive things about dividend based strategies is that you get money without having to decide when to sell, which asset to sell, and ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: second part of the series on preference for cash dividends
Replies: 13
Views: 1086

Re: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.

Professor Emeritus wrote: EMH is simply observational. EMH is a hypothesis, an attempt to explain reality, not reality itself. Shiller recently won the Nobel Prize for his animal spirit criticism of EMH. He predicted the bursting of the tech bubble and the real estate bubble before they happened, f...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 06, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.
Replies: 32
Views: 1934

Re: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.

The reason that things get undervalued has nothing to do with the buy and sell side both being wrong. I has to do with emotional behavior which gets magnified by group-think as crowds all do the same thing at once. People get frightened and sell stocks in mass just as lemmings rush over a cliff, not...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.
Replies: 32
Views: 1934

Re: Dynamic International/Domestic Allocation

Within certain limited parameters I do modest dynamic allocation changes between stocks and bonds as well as between US and international, and between DMs and EMs. I base these changes not on any of the numerical formulas such as you mentioned (cap weighting or book weighting) but on my own evaluati...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic International/Domestic Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 578

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

High PE ratios relative to long term averages do in fact suggest lower stock returns relative to long term averages in the future. On the other hand, low bond yields relative to historical averages also suggest lower bond returns going forward with a narrower dispersion of results. Current generous ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 27, 2014 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 5751

Re: about technical analysis, sp

In retrospect technical analysis can explain exactly what happened in the market action and define the chart pattern with precision. As for its ability to foretell the future, what is going to happen, I believe it is essentially worthless, a waste of time. In my opinion the ability of technical anal...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 27, 2014 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: about technical analysis, sp[Tech Analysis of S&P 500 index]
Replies: 5
Views: 251

Re: Sensitivity to interest rate movements

Classically investment grade corporate bond funds are expected to do better in a rising yield environment than Treasuries. Two reasons. One, for a given duration, corporates pay higher interest than Treasuries due to perceived higher repayment risk. That means that if dividends are reinvested, your ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sensitivity to interest rate movements
Replies: 4
Views: 368

Re: Just got a free consultation by Personal Capital. Though

I have so many objections to the Personal Capital plan that it's hard to know where to start. Nisi did a good job of dissecting the flaws in their plan, so I won't add more. The question is: if the plan is so good and bullet proof, so much better than a Boglehead approach, why are they offering it t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 05, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just got a free consultation by Personal Capital. Thoughts?
Replies: 49
Views: 4803

Re: Small/Mid Cap Exposure

Mel wrote;by Mel Lindauer » Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:18 pm Here's what I posted on the recent Mid-Cap thread regarding "Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps": Mel Lindauer wrote: Standard and Poors article on Mid-Caps as the "sweet spot". http://us.spindices.com/documents/educa ... rmance.pdf Mel L...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 04, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small/Mid Cap Exposure
Replies: 27
Views: 2770

Re: Small/Mid Cap Exposure

Although I modestly tilt to small and value, I believe Jo Money's post is timely and insightful. Timely because we have had SC significant outperformance relative to LC for 14 years running now. No one knows when exactly this trend will reverse but we do know that pendulums don't swing just one way....
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small/Mid Cap Exposure
Replies: 27
Views: 2770

Re: Small/Mid Cap Exposure

I think the extended market index is a great addition to TSM which is of by the necessity of cap weighting dominated by mega-cap and large cap stocks. Getting more exposure to small and mid cap stocks has historically increased both returns and volatility. However I tend to agree with some others on...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small/Mid Cap Exposure
Replies: 27
Views: 2770

Re: A historical look at Emerging Market losses

I'm sticking with EMs through thick and thin, mostly thin recently. It's 50% of my international allocation and 16% of my total stock allocation. As they go down I rebalance into them. Eventually, whenever that is, I believe my patience will be rewarded. I believe EMs offer better diversification re...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A historical look at Emerging Market losses
Replies: 4
Views: 771

Re: Pay attention to tax efficiency, it's important

Vanguard TSM with its incredibly low cost structure (.05%), little or no turnover therefore generating no annual capital gains, and modest dividends (less than 2%) is extremely tax efficient and an excellent candidate for US equity held in taxable accounts. The older and more experienced I get with ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pay attention to tax efficiency, it's important
Replies: 18
Views: 2491

Re: The Dark Side of Smart Beta

Very interesting post, Rick, thanks. It seems that those of us who overweight small and value for example are in a sense employing some "smart beta," although I confess that, like Rick, I don't like that term. Cap weighting may in fact prove to be the smartest beta out there. There can cle...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of Smart Beta
Replies: 11
Views: 1161

Re: Age in Bonds - Who Follows a Different Strategy?

I am more aggressive than most retired investors my age, 66. I have a variable bond allocation between 25% and 50%, the other 50% - 75% in stocks both US and international. I tactically change my bond allocation occasionally according to my expectations for long term bond returns relative to stocks....
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Who Follows a Different Strategy?
Replies: 132
Views: 6591

Re: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?

Market timing is difficult. The market has dropped perhaps 4% now, not much in a historical sense and I don't think that many believe this is the time to reallocate to stocks. The likelihood of benefiting from market timing--buying low for the long term holder--is in direct proportion to the severit...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads see this market dip as a buying point?
Replies: 127
Views: 13416

Re: Your thoughts - WSJ: A New Era in the Bond Market

No one, certainly not me, knows the future of stocks and/or bonds but the current US market status suggests a couple of things. Going forward from here for a decade or so, both stocks and bonds are unlikely to achieve their lofty real long term historical average returns which for stocks has been ab...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts - WSJ: A New Era in the Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 4591
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