Bogleheads.org

100% emerging markets timber?

It wasn't a flash crash, it was just a RBM - "Really Bad Minute". But fortunately my IPS doesn't require that I buy on every RBM.

mhc wrote:Age: ~45
Stocks: 80%
Adj Stock: 80%

Not too interesting if there are no liabilities.

But that's a good comparison for me, Thanks.

On the face your 80/20 portfolio looks more risky than my 70/30.

But since I have a mortgage my equity allocation is probably more risky than yours.

If you want to consider home equity as an investment, I also think it is interesting to calculate: (stocks + home equity) / (investment portfolio + home equity - liabilities) For this I get 89%. To me it indicates I'm effectively heavier in equity like investements than my 70/30 investment portfolio...

I never characterized my mortgage as being leverage for my equities. Not sure the benefit of not counting home equity but counting mortgage(which to me is an expense to live somewhere) when calculating the risk of your asset allocation. I can't sell my home to pay for my retirement because then I w...

I have seen surveys on this forum of age vs. asset allocation, but I would like to survey age vs. % in stocks relative to investments minus liabilities For example, age ~40, I have 70% stocks in my investment portfolio (not including home equity) But, stocks / (investment portfolio - loans) = 87% Hy...

Can probably only use 529 withdrawals at selected universities in the USA

Seeking comments on plan to simplify portfolio. We have 17 different accounts: Taxable, 2x403b, 457, DCP, 401k, Money Purchase, Profit Sharing, 2xRoth IRA, Variable Annuity, 2x529s, Bank CDs, 3xTreasury Direct To achieve the desired allocation, due to fund choices, I use 18 different funds. Rebalanc...

Suppose you only had two bond funds to choose from in your retirement plan, a long bond index with mean duration ~20 years and an active bond fund wherein the manager could adjust the duration at whim. Suppose interest rates were at a historically low point and happened to sharply rise over the next...

Fortunately it has been shown that over the last 30 years that small value stock returns correlate with frequency of meteor impacts, so those who tilt should be safe for the next millenium or so. If a meteor hits your house, your small value stocks will probably go up enough that you can buy a new h...

First, never invest in anything you don't fully understand because when it underperforms you will be prone to confusing strategy and outcome and abandon the strategy Second, I have backtested the strategy to 1970 and it has held up remarkably well in all environments. Third, IMO it is the most dive...

Neither of the poll options fit for me. I rebalance when my rebalancing bands are exceeded. Whether that turns out to be daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, or less frequently is dictated by the behavior of the market. I do not rebalance to "target", but to a point within the band. Events lik...

In a recent poll I asked "If the stock market drops 50% in one week will you rebalance?" I should have specified "rebalance IMMEDIATELY" (i.e., daily following sharp daily drops) Many seem to say "Yes", presumably because they imagine they will capture the "inevita...

livesoft wrote:I wouldn't wait for it to be a 50% drop, so I would probably be rebalancing all the way down.

Fair enough, but is there some point where you would start to get nervous?

Ok, how about if the market drops 99% in one day, you are still 100% sure you will have the guts to rebalance? Hmmm. Is it that you didn't like the answers to your 50% in a week question so you ask something still more extreme, with an added requirement of 100% confidence? It's always possible to f...

There is no "supposed" plan... there is a plan [period]. It should be self-explanatory, but I'll be happy to expand if necessary. I contend that any "plan" simply written down on a piece of paper is merely theoretical until actually actually tested under extreme conditions. For ...

Aren't the following questions relevant, too? 1) If the market drops 50% in a month, would you rebalance? 2) If the market drops 50% in a year, would you rebalance? But I would guess it also depends on how often you check the market. Seems like many on this site have the discipline of checking thei...

LAlearning wrote:Yes.....a la Target date and Lifestrategy funds! KISS.

Do you know for sure what the details of the rebalancing policy of those funds are?

[quote="YDNAL"]There is no "supposed" plan... there is a plan [period]. It should be self-explanatory, but I'll be happy to expand if necessary.[quote="YDNAL"] I contend that any "plan" simply written down on a piece of paper is merely theoretical until actual...

Boglenaut wrote:In 2008 I rebalanced every day for a week. It kept hitting my triggers so I stuck to the plan.

I am glad I did now.

If the market had fallen but not recovered would you now be saying "I regret I did it" or would you be saying "Hmm, next time I'm not sure I'll do that again"?

baw703916 wrote:I would probably wait until the negative momentum had stabilized, then rebalance.

How do you know when "the negative momentum has stabilized"

Do you mean if it drops 50% in one week, but then stays nearly constant for one week, then you will rebalance?

YDNAL wrote:Yes, I would rebalance since our plan includes a floor for Fixed Income investments that will not be affected by taking money to rebalance after a 50% market drop in Equities.

This is an interesting component of your plan. What % of your portfolio is the floor?

"I'm comfortable with my asset allocation (70/30) and usually rebalance when it gets off by >1% (as frequently as necessary) However, if the market dropped 50% in 1 week, realistically I'm not sure whether I'd have the stomach to rebalance." This doesn't make sense. Instead you should ign...

If market drops 50% in a week will you rebalance? Yes, I would rebalance since our plan includes a floor for Fixed Income investments that will not be affected by taking money to rebalance after a 50% market drop in Equities. I'm comfortable with my asset allocation (70/30) and usually rebalance wh...

I'm comfortable with my asset allocation (70/30) and usually rebalance when it gets off by >1% (as frequently as necessary) However, if the market dropped 50% in 1 week, realistically I'm not sure whether I'd have the stomach to rebalance. I believe I wouldn't panic sell stock funds, but I'm not sur...

Sometimes think I should reduce, but currently use 10

Total stock index
Small value index
REIT index
Global ex-US
Foreign small value
Total bond
Short treasury index
TIPS index
Ibonds
CDs

Partly has to do with what is accessible in retirement accounts

Fama and French say if you want to take a bigger risk of losing money look into small value stocks

"Spread the wealth"

We have a 2011 Sienna. It theoretically accomodates 8 people, but in my view it really only accomodates 4. After you put two kids car seats in the "middle row (left and right sides, where the only latch connectors are) you are left with: 1. One very narrow very uncomfortable seat in the middle ...

My understanding is they don't get paid too well at Vangard (if that is actually true, thank you!). But he probably indexed his portfolio (unless they don't practice what they preach?), so he's probably ok if he limits his withdrawls per year to 3%. He could earn some money part time, shoveling the ...

I have trouble thinking of anything ... Money is not an issue, as she already has way more than enough to buy anything she wants (due more to her salary than mine... ) Any ideas :?: Clothes/shoes - she is not into fashion and she would have to pick what she wants herself anyways (but maybe just givi...

A typical retirement strategy in CA has been to buy house 30-40 years ago for 20k, sell for 2000k, move
to another state and live like a king (albeit in worse weather)

I suggest it simply be called "Mechanism to insure that each and every American has equal opportunity to contribute to a Roth IRA" Sorry, you are wrong. I have no earned income. I can not contribute to an IRA or any kind, front door, backdoor, Roth, traditional, deductible, or non-deducti...

I suggest it simply be called "Mechanism to insure that each and every American has equal opportunity to contribute to a Roth IRA"

livesoft wrote:I'm afraid there is no formula. There is an algorithm. I have written a computer program that runs the algorithm. I am willing to sell it to folks for $10 million a pop.

Thanks for the offer, but I already have a random number generator on my computer.

A couple of things came to mind as I was looking at your list. You have car payments going to zero but I assume you will still buy a car or cars sometime in retirement. Also I didn't see health care related expenses. Maybe you have these bundled in categories. I retired at 63 (currently 64) and hea...

Here are some expenses that you may have missed or not considered. (1) College Tuition. (I am not sure if the Student loan payments are for you/spouse or future for the kids.) (2) Gifts (Charitable and Non-Charitable). Gifts for grandchildren/DIL/SIL can get expensive. :) (3) Unanticipated support ...

From my perspective your travel and entertainment budget is way too low. I spend more than what you budget now while I am working, and I plan on spending much more on travel and entertainment items when I retire, especially in the first few years. I predict that when I stop working, I will find lot...

gofigure wrote:Did you forget FICA expense?

Good point. Estimating $20,000 taxes was very rough, probably too low.

Prepare for backlash in this forum for spending north of $50,000/year for child care and preschool. Few of them will suggest, it could be easily done with $600/month It would be good to lower this. But I think even the cheapest daycare around here costs >$1000/mo per kid. Right now we have a nanny,...

I analyzed our current "expenses", defined as where our income currently goes. I then made guesses of what our expenses might be in retirement. I think they will be about 70% lower. "Income goes" toward many different goals - that is called cashflow. In your table, you have savi...

Could one quit, rollover, then get rehired a week later?

ilmartello wrote:Health and long-term care expenses are a wild card that could cost you a lot.

Plus as someone earlier I said, I don't consider investments to be an expense.

I suppose the right terminology would be to say "Our income needed will be 70% lower in retirement"?

Very nice....but it doesn't appear you are accounting for inflation. Property tax, homeowners dues, utilities, & misc. expenses will all be quite a bit more 20 years from now than they are today. My analysis is in "2012 dollars", which I think is the right way to look at it since the ...

One item you have not fully allowed for in retirement is medical/dental/prescription/medical insurance costs. Since these costs involve law changes, future insurance coverage, costs for items not even discovered yet, medical inflation, and the state of your health, they are very difficult to estima...

Let me get this straight: you make nearly $400K a year, squirreling away over half of it in savings, while spending absolutely nothing on travel? Even though you like to travel (given $25K/year budget in retirement)? I mean this is off your original topic but there is something to be said for enjoy...

Re: cashflow - seems like just semantics, as my point was those are categories our income goes now that it wont have to go in retirement, so I think its safe to conclude we'll need far less income to cover our expenses in retirement than now

I analyzed our current "expenses", defined as where our income currently goes. I then made guesses of what our expenses might be in retirement. I think they will be about 70% lower. Mainly because our biggest expenses are saving for retirement, kids/childcare expenses, and paying the mortg...

It may lag for the rest of eternity since the future can't be predicted.