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Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

...However, it appears that in the short run (a handful of years), when i do a regression analysis of the mutual funds ---> in my 401k <--- which have higher expense ratios (more than 1%) to their vanguard counterpart, neither of them appear to have significant alpha (plus or minus)... How did thos...
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

Right. In this instance they have been small, and they may not be in the future, but my point is that it is an oversimplification to say that passive will beat active by X% each year so over a lifetime, you lose $Y. Yes, implicitly somewhere in there is "expected" or "projected"...
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

I don't see the expected 0.67% difference that meowcat is suggesting should be there. I am not saying that the actively managed fund is better, and i am not even really saying that it is *the same*, i am saying that the differences are *small*. Actually what you are saying is that they have been sm...
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

Consider that even to achieve the same return as a lower cost fund, the active manager will have to take more risk to make up for the fee. I don't see that as desirable because I am gaining nothing from this extra risk. Agreed, but i am not sure the extent to which this harms you. $25,000 invested ...
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

From a Bayesian perspective, there is a lot of a priori information about higher expense ratios producing worse returns, active management producing worse returns, and so on. Being oblivious to all that is a big weakness of more traditional regression analysis. Also, are you interested in whether t...
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

saltycaper wrote:Consider that even to achieve the same return as a lower cost fund, the active manager will have to take more risk to make up for the fee. I don't see that as desirable because I am gaining nothing from this extra risk.


Agreed, but i am not sure the extent to which this harms you.
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

We cannot invest in the past, only the future. I, too, may be missing the OP's point, but high ERs increase the chance/probability of underperforming the benchmark. Low ER actively managed funds have much greater chances of beating their benchmarks, assuming they're not closet index funds. Certainl...
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

Now stretch your six years out to 60 years. (a lifetime of investing) Now compare the costs to Vanguard over the same time period. The difference could possibly be millions. That *was* your money, now it's theirs. I don't think it works that way (I could be way off). My goal is to maximize the numb...
by fulltilt
Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

Let me take this a slightly different direction. In Bill Bernstein's book, he has this analogy of the stock market being like a game where you flip a coin. If you call it correctly, then you get 30% return on your investment. If you do not call it correctly, then you lose 10%. If that represents pas...
by fulltilt
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

The second is a small cap value fund. Since 12/31/2010 it has returned 63.18% vs. the vanguard small cap ETF (VB) which returned 69.1% ... about a 1% difference per year ... Hmm. Looks like that is mostly due to chance. Looks like most of the difference is due to returns in 2014. If you stretch bac...
by fulltilt
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

C8H18Engineer wrote:Seems a bit apples to oranges - the first example compares a mid-cap to large-cap blend. So in the period, mid caps were able to perform well enough to cover the 1% higher ER.


Fair enough, but the second?
by fulltilt
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?

I know there is a *general* consensus that active management doesn't increase return and that passive index funds are the way to go. However, it appears that in the short run (a handful of years), when i do a regression analysis of the mutual funds in my 401k which have higher expense ratios (more t...
by fulltilt
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Expense Funds vs Vanguard: No Difference?
Replies: 37
Views: 2735

Re: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)

edmunds has a pretty good explanation of calculating your lease payment which you might find helpful to get a ballpark number.
http://www.edmunds.com/car-leasing/calc ... yment.html
by fulltilt
Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)
Replies: 47
Views: 4082

Re: The dealership wants my 2 year old car back?

I get letters all the time telling me that the dealer can put me into a brand new Honda CRV for the same monthly payment as we are paying now....
by fulltilt
Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The dealership wants my 2 year old car back?
Replies: 46
Views: 7562

Re: How did people work out in the past?

I don't know the answer so that is why i am asking the question, but it seems like people today sign up for gym memberships to force themselves to workout doing things they hate for the sake of "exercise". Some people actually like working out in a gym. They did these things because they ...
by fulltilt
Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did people work out in the past?
Replies: 36
Views: 2663

Re: How did people work out in the past?

... Many people didn't need to "work out" as much in the past, or didn't even perceive it to be an issue, at least not as we currently understand the term. There were things called farms and factories, where people did physical labor. And there were things called walkable cities, and real...
by fulltilt
Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did people work out in the past?
Replies: 36
Views: 2663

How did people work out in the past?

There is certainly no shortage of options for working out now days. There are 24 hour gyms, running clubs, yoga, pilates, etc. These all seem to be really new creations. What i want to know is what did people do to work out in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, ... before all of this options became available....
by fulltilt
Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did people work out in the past?
Replies: 36
Views: 2663

Re: Given High PE10, How about this AA?

steve_14 wrote:
fulltilt wrote:Given the current market conditions...


What about current bond market conditions? Shouldn't we be overweighting stocks now, given the high ratio of bond price to interest?


I think that depends on what you think the role of fixed income is in your portfolio.
by fulltilt
Fri Jan 10, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Given High PE10, How about this AA?
Replies: 13
Views: 702

Re: Given High PE10, How about this AA?

50/50 Domestic/International is what I use, and it is perfectly reasonable. Technically speaking, it's a tilt toward US equities from a world capitalization standpoint. Most on this board will not disagree strongly with any international allocation between 20-60%. Basically, you have a strong tilt ...
by fulltilt
Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Given High PE10, How about this AA?
Replies: 13
Views: 702

Given High PE10, How about this AA?

Given the current market conditions, what do you guys think about this asset allocation for someone who is going to accumulate for the next 20 years and try to retire in 2035-2040? 50% Total Stock Market Index (Or 25% S&P, 25% small; OR slice and dice as you see fit) 25% Total Developed Internat...
by fulltilt
Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Given High PE10, How about this AA?
Replies: 13
Views: 702

Checklist for the Arrival of a Baby

My wife just gave birth to our first child, a daughter, and i sure there are tons of things that i have to do from a financial perspective. Does anyone have any links or ideas for a good checklist of things that i need to do? Any caveats i should be aware of in terms of insurance or anything?
by fulltilt
Sat Dec 14, 2013 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Checklist for the Arrival of a Baby
Replies: 22
Views: 1885

Re: Tactical Flashlight for long walks at night vs. pepper s

Don't take anything with you that you don't want used against yourself as a weapon. That pretty much rules out a tactical flashlight, knife, gun and pepper spray.

I would take a fully charged cell phone and bright clothing on your walks.

Learn what constitutes *real* self defense.
by fulltilt
Tue Dec 03, 2013 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tactical Flashlight for long walks at night vs. pepper spray
Replies: 85
Views: 5461

Re: My Target Date Fund Overweights Large Growth?

This is a great point about Target Date Funds. These funds are defaults for most retirement plans and many individuals blindly believe picking a fund based upon their retirement date means it fits their risk portfolio. I really dislike them because once you get over 4 or 5 funds, it is very difficu...
by fulltilt
Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Target Date Fund Overweights Large Growth?
Replies: 5
Views: 377

My Target Date Fund Overweights Large Growth?

Here is the breakdown of my target date 2035 fund available through my 401k at work. Can someone tell me why they might choose this allocation in terms of MPT and/or FF? Let's assume that they are acting in good faith and not loading up on funds to enrich themselves... American Funds Growth Fund R6....
by fulltilt
Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Target Date Fund Overweights Large Growth?
Replies: 5
Views: 377

Re: Boglehead Beer

Bumping this old thread, but hey, it's about beer. Just about to start building a kegerator for my homebrew(s). Anybody else ever do anything like this? Several good guides on the web on how to do it, what mini-fridge to use, etc. And then, I start building my basement bar (hello mid-life crisis, b...
by fulltilt
Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Beer
Replies: 498
Views: 72352

Re: Strategy and tactics for auto-pilot investing

From this back-of-the-envelope calculation it seems like it's more important to consider the average gain rather than whether the taxes are deferred. But I do know that the conventional wisdom is to put bonds in tax-sheltered accounts, so I must be missing something, what is it? livesoft is razzing...
by fulltilt
Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy and tactics for auto-pilot investing
Replies: 15
Views: 1788

Re: Strategy and tactics for auto-pilot investing

From this back-of-the-envelope calculation it seems like it's more important to consider the average gain rather than whether the taxes are deferred. But I do know that the conventional wisdom is to put bonds in tax-sheltered accounts, so I must be missing something, what is it? livesoft is razzing...
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 26, 2013 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy and tactics for auto-pilot investing
Replies: 15
Views: 1788

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

I think this is the part where someone jumps in and says that money is fungible.

If I have the money to pay off the loans, then whether or not i actually pay them off doesn't matter. My cash flow is not affected.

Money is fungible. :twisted:
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 19, 2013 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Don't take the cash.

I am thinking of just taking a lump sum when i leave and immediately buying bonds. Fulltilt: Taking the lump sum from a pension plan is nearly always a serious mistake because the lump sum is all taxable (at income tax rates) leaving that much less to reinvest. Rolling-ove r (tax-free) into an IRA ...
by fulltilt
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

For the purposes of maintaining domestic tranquility, I think we are going to keep our savings account at roughly 15-20% of our gross pay for now which is the most we can afford the the moment. As far as maxing out all of our accounts, that would be a dream. It will never happen though. we have 401...
by fulltilt
Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

So in summary: 1. Double your cash reserves 2. Max out Roth IRAs (or 401ks for tax reasons...) 3. Pay down remaining consumer debt 4. Max out all retirement vehicles 5. Contribute to college fund For the purposes of maintaining domestic tranquility, I think we are going to keep our savings account ...
by fulltilt
Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

I don't have much home equity. I am not planning on staying in the house long term. The only way i could get a significantly lower rate would be to move to an ARM or a 15 year. Those options are somewhat attractive from the perspective of ROI, but I am trying to minimize my cash outflows for the nex...
by fulltilt
Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

Tax Rate: Low 25% If your gross income is still around $110,000 you should try to get under the 25% bracket. This is a key point to clear up, because it makes a big difference whether you're in the 25% or 15% bracket -- this is decisive for such questions as whether to prioritize pre-tax (401k or T...
by fulltilt
Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

New cars are wealth killers. Financing a new car, and having to take on the additional cost of insuring the thing, is a huge money pit. I think your 1992 Honda Accord was adequate for your needs. Heck, I rode around in a 1973 Dodge Dart and I'm still alive. I loved my Honda. It was an awesome car f...
by fulltilt
Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

I am stressed that we aren't saving enough for retirement, and i feel extra stress because i started saving seriously in my early-ish thirties. --And you decided to minimize your cash flow and put it towards a car instead. Maybe you need to re-evaluate this and other choices. --Although from your i...
by fulltilt
Wed Jul 17, 2013 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

As far as how to treat the pension, there are a bunch of ways of thinking about it. Each has it's pluses and minuses. A key factor is how is this pension guaranteed? If the company were to go bankrupt would you still get whatever is vested in your account? That would be a big factor in whether or n...
by fulltilt
Tue Jul 16, 2013 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: Late 30s: 2 Years In

What are the annual retirement contributions for you and your wife? Will your wife keep working after she has a baby? She is going to continue to work. Our annual contributions are 10.8% of our gross pay to our retirement accounts. That is excluding her pension plan and mine which makes it a bit mo...
by fulltilt
Tue Jul 16, 2013 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Late 30s: 2 Years In

This is a follow up to my first portfolio review post which is available here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=88783 Debt: Mortgage: $140,000 @ 4.375% (30 year) Her Car loan: $9,233 @ 1.85% His Car loan: 22,175 @ 1.59% My student loan: $12,942 @1.65% No CC debt Emergency Fund...
by fulltilt
Tue Jul 16, 2013 8:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Late 30s: 2 Years In
Replies: 42
Views: 4418

Re: REITS

This thread might be interesting to you.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=115965&p=1688269&hilit=reit#p1688269
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITS
Replies: 26
Views: 2899

Re: Not happy with market

blueridge wrote:C'mon guys, I seriously doubt that the OP is serious. If I'm wrong, my apologies, but...really.


yup. I think he is a troll.
by fulltilt
Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not happy with market
Replies: 148
Views: 13645

Re: Talking With My Sister About Investing and Risk

Is there any way to convince her of the risks inherent in this? I come across as hopelessly fuddy duddy, and just look at the mediocre returns that a balanced approach get compared to the 15 bagger the company stock has been. Don't try to "convince" her of the risks. If you inform her of ...
by fulltilt
Thu Jul 11, 2013 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talking With My Sister About Investing and Risk
Replies: 22
Views: 1723

Re: Thinking about reducing international

letsgobobby wrote:This is starting to feel like good old fashioned trolling.


+1
by fulltilt
Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking about reducing international
Replies: 24
Views: 2014

Re: How to get over finance envy

Ironically, ever since I started reading Bogleheads I have been feeling finance envy more and more often... that "how old were you when you made your first 100k" thread from a while back really shook me up! So many people the same age as myself had so much more money saved up. I totally a...
by fulltilt
Wed Jul 10, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get over finance envy
Replies: 167
Views: 18365

Re: Buying a car outright smartest financially?

I am in sales. A significant portion of the income is salary, which is near 6 figures. If I were to have a good year next year and hit quota I'd actually be more close to 200k. Don't raid your savings/retirement to buy the car. Pay cash for the car if must have it. If i had unsteady income that was...
by fulltilt
Sat Jul 06, 2013 11:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a car outright smartest financially?
Replies: 149
Views: 11103

Re: 401k/rollover IRA, and my car

On my rollover IRA, I can't add to it in its current state I don't see why not unless it is still in your husband's name. It's an IRA. You are allowed to contribute up to $5,500 this year to an IRA. The advantage of keeping it separate is you have a few better choices (a cheaper bond bund, a more c...
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k/rollover IRA, and my car
Replies: 19
Views: 2021

Re: Putting the rest into stocks?

I basically want to "put this money to work" because I can't figure out what to do with it - which is a good problem to have. :) How are you going to feel when half of your employees get fired? In all seriousness, i have read several of your posts, and you seem young and untested. Several...
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Putting the rest into stocks?
Replies: 16
Views: 1272

Re: Complete noob looking for investing guidance

Thanks for the reply. I just wanted to clarify my loan situation. It's actually 2.5% but its through my parents. I have no minimum payment right now and no set time frame to pay it off. However I would like to pay it off in 15-20 years. Wouldn't it be best to start off paying a small amount within ...
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 05, 2013 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Complete noob looking for investing guidance
Replies: 36
Views: 2098

Re: Having a baby -- [PPACA]

It can cost up to $250K to raise a child from birth to age 18. Can it cost $250K to give birth to a child? Perhaps, but that is if you have a premie or newborn with multiple conditions. Get the health insurance for your wife, use some of that cash now, delaying because your waiting for some governm...
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 05, 2013 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having a baby -- [PPACA]
Replies: 23
Views: 2293

Re: Reducing water flow to sump pump

I have a similar issue. When it rains, my sump pump runs a lot. I am trying to divert as much water away from my house as possible to minimize how hard my sump pump needs to work. I have been doing a lot of reading and i liked the info on on the EPA's website . Have you determined what the actual pr...
by fulltilt
Fri Jul 05, 2013 9:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reducing water flow to sump pump
Replies: 31
Views: 3053

Re: Will the Small-Value premium persist over 40 years?

Maybe the small value premium will persist, but, so what? It's not enough for there just to be a premium. You can always amp up risk and reward without changing asset classes, just by increasing the percentage allocation to the risky asset (and using leverage if necessary). You've stated this often...
by fulltilt
Tue Jul 02, 2013 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Small-Value premium persist over 40 years?
Replies: 73
Views: 6497
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