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by freebeer
Sun May 24, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mt Hood: 5% chance of eruption in next 30 years.
Replies: 12
Views: 1965

Re: Mt Hood: 5% chance of eruption in next 30 years.

So says USGS. That number struck me as analogous to the standard 4% SWR recommendation: withdraw 4% inflation adjusted per year, and you have only a 5% chance of running out of money over 30 years. That made me wonder. Counting on a 95% success rate in your portfolio should be no different than dec...
by freebeer
Thu May 14, 2015 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)
Replies: 58
Views: 4730

Re: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)

Is there a conspiracy against this company ... If you like to invest in stocks, then this is an absolute no-brainer. ...I just feel like this community needs to know about this secret... Uh, this community generally doesn't like to speculate on individual stocks since that is contrary to Bogleheads...
by freebeer
Thu May 14, 2015 12:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can a room with only a toilet be considered a bathroom?
Replies: 28
Views: 2280

Re: Can a toilet alone in a room be considered a bathroom?

Seattle has more than a few of these in its older (and basement-rich) housing stock but I've never heard of such basement toilets being called "1/4 baths". They are just "bonus" plumbing features in the basement (and often pretty weird/gross). If anything there's a disincentive t...
by freebeer
Mon May 04, 2015 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy self-driving car?
Replies: 235
Views: 9304

Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Nope, not a chance in hell. I have been in software development for 40 years. I know what crap is under the hood (so to speak). I would still rather fly on a de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter than any Airbus plane. So, do you have any data about the objective safety record of de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Ot...
by freebeer
Sun May 03, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy self-driving car?
Replies: 235
Views: 9304

Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Nope, not a chance in hell. I have been in software development for 40 years. I know what crap is under the hood (so to speak). I would still rather fly on a de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter than any Airbus plane. So, do you have any data about the objective safety record of de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Ot...
by freebeer
Sun May 03, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy self-driving car?
Replies: 235
Views: 9304

Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Nope, not a chance in hell. I have been in software development for 40 years. I know what crap is under the hood (so to speak). I would still rather fly on a de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter than any Airbus plane. So, do you have any data about the objective safety record of de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Ot...
by freebeer
Wed Apr 29, 2015 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement with 401(k)'s and IRA's
Replies: 16
Views: 2009

Re: Early Retirement with 401(k)'s and IRA's

SaraSV, the Guide, like the Wiki it's drawn from, is oriented towards people in typical situations (I think it even says so somewhere but I can't locate the reference at the moment). Planning to retire at 49 is atypical so it should not be surprising if the blanket advice is not fully applicable. In...
by freebeer
Wed Apr 29, 2015 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Co-sign on spouse's student loans?
Replies: 47
Views: 3313

Re: Co-sign on spouse's student loans?

So I guess for me the steps are going to consist of: ... It's a good plan, but if you don't already have it--get life insurance. It should be really cheap at your age. You really should have it regardless of this situation, but this situation calls for it all the more. I disagree especially with th...
by freebeer
Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Co-sign on spouse's student loans?
Replies: 47
Views: 3313

Re: Co-sign on spouse's student loans?

So I guess for me the steps are going to consist of: ... It's a good plan, but if you don't already have it--get life insurance. It should be really cheap at your age. You really should have it regardless of this situation, but this situation calls for it all the more. I disagree especially with th...
by freebeer
Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: lost a bid for questionable practice of seller's agent
Replies: 28
Views: 3356

Re: lost a bid for questionable practice of seller's agent

I would talk to the broker (owner of office) where the seller's agent works. There is a Realtor code of ethics ( http://www.realtor.org/governance/governing-documents/the-code-of-ethics ) that goes above and beyond state statutes, and most real estate offices will be members. The broker would probab...
by freebeer
Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feel like I made a mistake with buying a house: appreciation
Replies: 43
Views: 4984

Re: Feel like I made a mistake with buying a house: apprecia

I think other posters are giving you too hard a time. Most home buyers don't think about their home primarily as an investment. So most don't aim to buy for maximum appreciation potential, as other factors are more important to them. And the housing market especially for single-family homes is not a...
by freebeer
Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: South America [vacation recommendations]
Replies: 32
Views: 2569

Re: If You Were Going To S. America ...

I really enjoyed Ecuador - volcano climbing, interesting culture, and a small slice of the Amazon basin as well. Quito has big-city crime issues (thus no-go places and times) but I felt extremely safe in the rest of the country, including the lovely resort town Banos. Spanish is spoken slowly, class...
by freebeer
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [How do I lead a discussion about saving for retirement?]
Replies: 38
Views: 4136

Re: 1/3 of those SAVING for retirement have less than $1000

OP, regarding your specific actionable question about qualifications for doing a talk, I think you can just go for it. But remember that the alarmist report was published by a group with a board that's a who's-who of financial institutions with a vested interest in increasing funds under management....
by freebeer
Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: What is your SWR in retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 4100

Re: Retirees: What is your SWR in retirement?

A 3% rule for a 30 year retirement worked in all historical scenarios, even if you retired just before the great depression. However if you use a Monte Carlo simulation instead of historical data and assume 7% return, 2% inflation, and 20% standard deviation, a 3% rule only works in 73% of scenario...
by freebeer
Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Living in New Hampshire?
Replies: 35
Views: 2617

Re: Living in New Hampshire?

I think the Upper Valley region is quite nice (having visited in-laws many times in all seasons, but never lived there), it's along the Connecticut River bordering Vermont, centered around Hanover (Dartmouth). Close to White Mountains and other great hiking (Appalachian Trail goes through downtown H...
by freebeer
Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What is safest vehicle on the road today that I can buy?]
Replies: 108
Views: 7353

Re: What is safest vehicle on the road today?

2015 MERCEDES-BENZ ML-CLASS SUV 4WD because this site says so: http://www.informedforlife.org/ actually, no, it culls from the list larger vehicles who are safer only because of their mass, see the note at bottom and the link to http://www.informedforlife.org/viewartcl.php?index=83 . So the 2015 ME...
by freebeer
Tue Apr 14, 2015 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: You may need less than 80% in retirement
Replies: 98
Views: 9286

Re: Finally some good news on retirement

This is silly. Nobody should plan a retirement budget on income, past, present, or future. You start with a budget which should be divided into discretionary and bottom-line expenses. From that you determine income requirements. It is totally backwards to start from income and from that determine a...
by freebeer
Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor hired a surveyor. Should I be nervous?
Replies: 81
Views: 10393

Re: Neighbor hired a surveyor. Should I be nervous?

are you in a rural area where things are on wells and/or septic systems? If so it may be that the neighbor was required to get a survey as part of enhancing or even just maintaining these things (or even for home remodeling) and that the determination that the boundary line is 1 foot on your side of...
by freebeer
Thu Apr 09, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of College & Weighing the Merits of Top Schools
Replies: 304
Views: 17598

Re: Cost of College & Weighing the Merits of Top Schools

My eldest will be matriculating this Fall at a very selective (but not quite Ivy) college, and we'll be paying rack rate (ouch!). I thought it would be a better deal for him to get his undergraduate education at our local state university (which also admitted him) as it is also highly ranked in his ...
by freebeer
Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragement?
Replies: 172
Views: 16423

Re: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragem

Arguably, the vast majority of Americans will never reach a $1 million portfolio. I for one have far less than that and am living well in retirement. Was watching CBS news this morning and an 'expert' again mentioned the $1 million needed for retirement, and the host incredulously fired back "...
by freebeer
Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making Sense of Variable Spending Strategies for Retirees
Replies: 4
Views: 569

Re: Making Sense of Variable Spending Strategies for Retiree

...it isn't as useful for those who are interesting in "using it all up", rather than those happy to leave a bundle for heirs. For those planning to spend primarily from the returns (total returns, not just "interest/dividends"), AND for those not living close to the edge, this ...
by freebeer
Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VRBO rental gone awry- recourse for security deposit?
Replies: 50
Views: 5210

Re: VRBO rental gone awry- recourse for security deposit?

Just read your post above where you left the garbage in bags out on the street ; I'll be blunt , I don't think you demonstrated any common sense or maybe you live in an area where there's no possibility of animals getting into garbage , that's also hard to believe . If it were me I'd look for the c...
by freebeer
Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage
Replies: 257
Views: 23750

Re: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mort

No, I don't think Edelman is correct. It makes little sense to hold fixed income investments in a taxable account paying 2% when your mortgage is costing 4%! Well with interest deduction your mortgage may be costing significantly less than 4%. And many people locate most if not all of their fixed i...
by freebeer
Sun Apr 05, 2015 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting in Retirement - Considerations?
Replies: 53
Views: 4293

Re: Renting in Retirement - Considerations?

I think you have two completely separate issues here: urban vs. suburban/rural living and renting vs. owning. These aren't necessarily related and it seems that most of your and spouse's considerations are based on the possible change to urban living. So you could first give urban living a try (rent...
by freebeer
Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another house "Can I afford it" question
Replies: 9
Views: 1807

Re: Another house "Can I afford it" question

Last spring we hounded DS (29) to really look for a home. Homes in his area was/is appreciating at 5%+. He decided that Seattle will be his permanent home (5 years resident) and successfully completed 1st year on a new job. He had not contributed to 401k (no match) for 2013 and 2014. Consequently, ...
by freebeer
Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:54 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: A special day for two World War II veterans
Replies: 20
Views: 1752

Re: A special day for two World War II veterans

Taylor, you look the same age as the Mayor!
by freebeer
Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My car is (supposedly) totaled. What to do?
Replies: 26
Views: 2426

Re: My car is (supposedly) totaled. What to do?

Would you buy a salvage title 99 Toyota Corolla for $550 with sales tax waived, with the stated damage? I would, for sure, so I would go for option 2.
by freebeer
Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Neighbor violating HOA rules by using] VBRO and Airbnb
Replies: 38
Views: 4189

Re: VBRO and Airbnb versus property values

These are SFR but all are in a big Planned Area Development where HOA owns and maintains streets and several commons areas and facilities. So the HOA does a lot of stuff. How do you tell if they have this power? You should have been given a set of CC&Rs when you bought in, and addenda when new ...
by freebeer
Mon Mar 23, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Neighbor violating HOA rules by using] VBRO and Airbnb
Replies: 38
Views: 4189

Re: VBRO and Airbnb versus property values

MY HOA passed a amendment to the CCRs back in 2001 covering all sorts of rental situations... So, one question is whether there was legal review at the time or afterwards to ensure that this amendment was definitely within the scope of the HOA. This might depend on your state/local laws as well as ...
by freebeer
Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Neighbor violating HOA rules by using] VBRO and Airbnb
Replies: 38
Views: 4189

Re: VBRO and Airbnb versus property values

What does it mean that your "HOA is very clear this is a not allowed activity", particularly when you mentioned there are other (longer-term) rentals in your neighborhood? Since the sharing economy has arisen only recently, and most HOA covenants are older, it would be surprising if there ...
by freebeer
Thu Mar 19, 2015 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Age Did You First Ponder Financial Independence?
Replies: 74
Views: 7601

Re: What Age Did You First Ponder Financial Independence?

Age 9... I stumbled on parents' copy of "How I turned $1,000 into a Million in Real Estate" and was hooked :happy of course the title of that particular book could have been "Over-leveraging is amazing if you happen to catch the beginning of a long-term bubble" :oops: but the gen...
by freebeer
Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is a larger home downpayment worth it?
Replies: 18
Views: 2499

Re: Is a larger home downpayment worth it?

There is an additional consideration not mentioned yet in this thread, which is the benefits/drawbacks of increased leverage, particularly if a mortgage is no-recourse (depending on your state). With 10% down if property value increases by 10% net of transaction costs over 5 years (without you havin...
by freebeer
Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: The Death of The Millionaire Next Door Dream
Replies: 20
Views: 5558

Re: Article: The Death of The Millionaire Next Door Dream

...Overall he seems to miss the entire premise of The Millionaire Next Door, which is simply that, as I read it, our notion of the typical wealthy person is flat wrong - it is much more likely to be the guy in an older Ford pickup or a Camry, wears jeans, went to state school, and who owns a boring...
by freebeer
Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24581

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

The quote said 2% real "net of expenses" but what average expenses was Bill Bernstein presuming in making that prediction? Not everyone is a pure Boglehead directly owning only very low cost funds. And even Wade Pfau's paper last year (questioning 4% SWR) posited 1% wrap fee. If it's going...
by freebeer
Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?
Replies: 452
Views: 75528

Re: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?

Part of the point of MMM is that being in a defensive crouch is the wrong way to go about investing If you assume lower returns, you get a lower SWR. Not exactly rocket science. We are getting into Dave Ramsey territory here. People want fantasy. Dave and MMM deliver. Dave Ramsey: 12% return from g...
by freebeer
Thu Mar 05, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?
Replies: 452
Views: 75528

Re: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?

I'm pleased to see he is in agreement with me. Consider that a completely safe asset with a real return of 0% will give a 3.3% SWR. Currently Vanguard UK's world high-yield tracker (which invests in the half of the world index with higher dividend yields) gives dividends of 3.8%. Although that inco...
by freebeer
Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to make $750K into $1m...Help
Replies: 25
Views: 2740

Re: Want to make $750K into $1m...Help

I'm a little puzzled by the Boglehead responses to OP post. My guess would have been that people would advice to put 50:50 in total stock and tax-exempt munis. CDs won't even beat inflation. Did you miss what the op stated about risk tolerance? It clearly matters. Yeah but should we really pander t...
by freebeer
Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 84
Views: 7632

Re: International is disappointing

Vanguard Total International has underperformed the S&P 500 in the past 5 years by more than 60%? So disappointing that I'm considering taking the risk and going 100% Vanguard TSM (Total Stock Market). S&p 500 is disappointing. It underperformed international by 50% between 2003-2007. If yo...
by freebeer
Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mid 60's , still working , need help with a plan
Replies: 7
Views: 1711

Re: Mid 60's , still working , need help with a plan

Hi, I'm not sure there's "not so good news", you don't mention spending other than $24K/year on housing, which is modest, and you'll have $48K in income ($68K counting wife's income) plus $600K in investments (+ home equity?). Plus presumably more SS when your wife is eligible to get a spo...
by freebeer
Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company just announced an ESPP
Replies: 8
Views: 626

Re: Company just announced an ESPP

*minimum* 60% rate of return (15% discount x average 3 month of invested capital) is nothing to sneeze at, and that's only if the stock sinks during the offer period, maximum return is much more. Back when I was at a MegaCorp that offered essentially the identical ESPP I used to advise folks to do 4...
by freebeer
Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tenants won't let us show the rental: what do we do?
Replies: 60
Views: 7578

Re: Tenants won't let us show the rental: what do we do?

Please be aware that there are many absolutely legal things that the tenants can do or demand that will seriously impact your ability to sell the home: ... I find it odd that you'd spout off this list when it is absolutely legal for the landlord to enter the property for whatever the reason may be ...
by freebeer
Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why don't I see more people arguing for a world portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3131

Re: Why don't I see more people arguing for a world portfoli

... In my opinion it's not possible to have any certainty about whether any of the choices 0% international, 25% international or 50% international is actually better than any other. It's just another random slightly-different-flavor of stocks, you need to make a personal decision that's within the...
by freebeer
Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why don't I see more people arguing for a world portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3131

Re: Why don't I see more people arguing for a world portfoli

Vanguard had a paper on this back in 2008 and here is a more recent one from 2014. Both came to the same conclusion - that the "diversification" benefit tapers off after about 40% of stocks in international. One of the reasons is that international stock funds cost more. https://personal....
by freebeer
Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Preparing for 2 months incommunicado
Replies: 142
Views: 7319

Re: Preparing for 2 months incommunicado

Going connectivity-free isn't necessarily equivalent to going device-free. I was very happily off the grid for 22 days in Nepal in 2013 (one sat phone call home in the middle, from a village that had that facility). But I was very glad to have brought with me a very basic eReader, a Kobo touch, prel...
by freebeer
Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Best 60/40 Portfolio?
Replies: 20
Views: 2315

Re: The Best 60/40 Portfolio?

I am curios as to what you would consider to be the best all around 60/40 portfolio that covers all of the bases? From managing risk, to inflation, to owning the whole market, etc. After doing some research, I’ve come to the conclusion that the three-fund portfolio plus TIPS seems to work best. I u...
by freebeer
Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Best 60/40 Portfolio?
Replies: 20
Views: 2315

Re: The Best 60/40 Portfolio?

I am curios as to what you would consider to be the best all around 60/40 portfolio that covers all of the bases? From managing risk, to inflation, to owning the whole market, etc. After doing some research, I’ve come to the conclusion that the three-fund portfolio plus TIPS seems to work best. I u...
by freebeer
Tue Feb 10, 2015 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to value warrants in a private company.
Replies: 5
Views: 342

Re: how to value warrants in a private company.

Hi everybody, Here's my situation: 1) I own shares in a privately held company that I would like to get rid of, for simplification purposes. 2) the company is currently undergoing a new funding round. 3) the current round prices the shares at $1.35, but also includes warrants. 4) the warrants are a...
by freebeer
Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?
Replies: 452
Views: 75528

Re: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?

Boglehead MMM fans, please post here if you dropped your high-income job for making a small amount of money with lots of free time in the prime of your life. I'd like to hear from you. Bogleheads on average seem to make higher than normal salaries...this whole phenomena is intriguing to me. Yes, I ...
by freebeer
Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Choosing a Backpack and other Gear for el Camino
Replies: 100
Views: 7632

Re: Choosing a Backpack for el Camino

... Good idea about the tc bag, may add that to my own system. How do those rainy PNW folks protect their sleeping bag? I stuff mine into lower compartment of my Crest trail 70, not via top opening. Have tried plastic trash bag, but can get snarled in zipper... Well it's all over the map. One appro...
by freebeer
Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?
Replies: 452
Views: 75528

Re: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?

Hi, I just started reading MMM in the past week. Has there been any actual hard factual authentication that MMM lives the actual lifestyle he espouses, and can back up his claims with any sort of audited financial statements, copies of bank statements, or copies of tax transcripts? I like much of w...

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