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Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Yes, I have tried to blow this horn here... as a former business partner of mine likes to say: "the only true limiting factor in life is time, not money". But many of us don't seem comfortable contemplating this too closely ... a fixation on building a "completely safe" portfolio...
by freebeer
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 162
Views: 8422

Re: Poll: Dividend income to match annual salary?

Dividends are a side show. What counts is real return. +1 to that. And focusing on dividends is also a recipe for tax-inefficiency, with both double taxation (at corporate and individual levels) and the missed opportunity to postpone paying capital gains esp. given broad-based index funds like Tota...
by freebeer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Dividend income to match annual salary?
Replies: 39
Views: 3576

Re: "Why Retirement at 65 is a Fairy Tale"

... assuming those 65 year olds keep their jobs. Past history suggests most them will get laid off around 62 and never have a similar level employment again. ... I would have expected that the % who get laid off late in their work careers (vs. voluntarily retiring or staying employed at a similar l...
by freebeer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Why Retirement at 65 is a Fairy Tale"
Replies: 117
Views: 11444

Re: "Why Retirement at 65 is a Fairy Tale"

... assuming those 65 year olds keep their jobs. Past history suggests most them will get laid off around 62 and never have a similar level employment again. ... I would have expected that the % who get laid off late in their work careers (vs. voluntarily retiring or staying employed at a similar l...
by freebeer
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Why Retirement at 65 is a Fairy Tale"
Replies: 117
Views: 11444

Re: What is the best meal you've had at a restaurant?

Coincidentally I had one of my most amazing meals just now - Duck breast with caramelized bananas and figs as the main course, and eggplant "beignets" with coriander batter as starter. And a carafe of lovely Cote du Provence wine, with Armagnac and cheese to finish. This was at the restaur...
by freebeer
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best meal you've had at a restaurant?
Replies: 88
Views: 6524

Re: I need to accumulate $30k over the next 2 years, how?

I have a different perspective than most. Since the surgery is elective and you indicated exact timeframe is flexible, how much value would you place in having a very good chance to be able to pay for the surgery in 18 months instead of 2 years in exchange for a (significantly smaller) chance that i...
by freebeer
Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need to accumulate $30k over the next 2 years, how?
Replies: 59
Views: 4026

Re: Wellesley acutally outperforms Total Market/Intermed. Ta

But, isn't the stock component of Wellesley managed actively with both value and sector tilts? If so I wouldn't expect the results to closely track a synthesized alternative that uses vanilla TSM for stocks... and it could be that the taxable bonds pulled Wellesley returns down vs. if its equities h...
by freebeer
Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellesley acutally outperforms Total Market/Intermed. Tax Ex
Replies: 5
Views: 940

Re: Got earthquake insurance?

I am a 20 year Pac NW resident and have never had earthquake insurance at any of the 4 homes we've owned. But now I'm renting at a waterfront spot where an extension of the Seattle Fault (discovered, interestingly, via LIDAR mapping - http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/pacnw/graphic/toejamfM.jpg ) runs righ...
by freebeer
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got earthquake insurance?
Replies: 35
Views: 2061

Re: Do we have too much house?

... $30K/year for babysitter??... Babysitter is not for date night - it is for 40+ hours a week (we still have one child not yet in school, plus she is there before the older ones go to school and after they get home) Ah, OK I understand - I'd call that a "nanny"... "babysitter"...
by freebeer
Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we have too much house?
Replies: 45
Views: 4445

Re: Do we have too much house?

$30K/year for babysitter?? At a (high) $15/hour that would be 2,000 hours/year, which would be 6 hour outings 6 nights every week of the year. What am I missing here?
by freebeer
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we have too much house?
Replies: 45
Views: 4445

Re: Health Insurance for 5 Month International Travel

Assuming good health, I think it'd be overkill to get any extra insurance, or to get medevac insurance unless going to truly remote regions of the Philippines. As kramer implied, any procedures one would want to have done there won't be expensive, and from any significant city in the Philippines one...
by freebeer
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Health Insurance for 5 Month International Travel
Replies: 9
Views: 1306

Re: Is 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds still best balance?

I'm 30 years old ... We aren't the general public on this board - we are on bogleheads.org bc we know a thing or two about investing. I suspect that very few on this board would freak out if we had a 50% market decline, we'd keep our cool knowing that this is a normal process... As you say, this is...
by freebeer
Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds still best balance?
Replies: 36
Views: 6319

Re: Avoiding lifestyle creep

MrMoneyMustache FTW!
by freebeer
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding lifestyle creep
Replies: 30
Views: 5430

Re: Experiences using VRBO, Airbnb internationally

I have used both AirBnB & VRBO internationally (Kyoto, Frankfurt, Paris, etc.)... great experiences, in the top 10% of all my AirBnB/VRBO stays. It seems that VRBO at least in the past has been more for expat hosts with AirBnB having more local hosts but I don't know if this may be because I've ...
by freebeer
Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experiences using VRBO, Airbnb internationally
Replies: 26
Views: 1921

Re: Proposed Lifetime Retirement Investment Approach

... only rebalancing occasionally among them. ... In my understanding the merits of particular criteria on rebalancing (annual, when allocation is out of whack by X%, never, ...) are debatable but leaving it vague in the plan seems sub-optimal (susceptible to market timing or other behavioral facto...
by freebeer
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Proposed Lifetime Retirement Investment Approach
Replies: 28
Views: 2540

Re: Tell me about FitBit - is it worth having?

For me, yes for sure (over 8.7M steps and 30K floors to date). It helps me remember to get at least 10K steps/day (& I aim for 20 floors) and on the days when I'm close to higher levels I am likely to walk an extra 1K=2K steps or climb an extra 5-10 floors to get the next "badge". And ...
by freebeer
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitbit, Vivofit, or other?
Replies: 55
Views: 2273

Re: Taxable investing for lower dividends only?

livesoft, Well, BerkshireHathaway would be somewhat over-concentrated vs. Bogleheads principles (not to mention carrying some non-trivial management succession risk right now). But maybe your suggestion wasn't entirely serious. Grt2bOutdoors, Right, but Tax managed capital appreciation doesn't avoid...
by freebeer
Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable investing for lower dividends only?
Replies: 6
Views: 717

Re: Taxable investing for lower dividends only?

The main thing I would suggest is to make sure the dividends are all qualified. Furthermore, if you want some money back, then make sure the qualified dividends are eligible for the foreign tax credit. Also make sure you have at least $3000 in net losses on your Schedule D every year... Thanks live...
by freebeer
Thu Nov 20, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable investing for lower dividends only?
Replies: 6
Views: 717

Taxable investing for lower dividends only?

Tax-managed funds generally aim to minimize both dividends and taxable capital gains. I have significant taxable investments and may be interested in reduction of dividend & interest income partly but not solely to reduce taxes. Presently in a reasonably high tax bracket from salary alone (28%) ...
by freebeer
Thu Nov 20, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable investing for lower dividends only?
Replies: 6
Views: 717

Re: Vacation in France

If you want an economical "countryside" stay you might consider Rambouillet - end of RER line so quick and cheap to access from central Paris and there are "gites" / B&Bs / farmstays a plenty. Farms and forests and chateaux... like going to Loire Valley but way less cost and ...
by freebeer
Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacation in France
Replies: 96
Views: 6611

Re: How Not to Retire

Very touching. I'm ashamed that someone as eloquent and accomplished as McPherson could end up in poverty. But, my mother (born a year earlier) is indigent in a not dissimilar situation to McPherson's. OK she never got a Pulitzer, but over the years she employed hundreds of people in her business an...
by freebeer
Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Not to Retire
Replies: 67
Views: 7973

Re: If your networth is over $3 million, how did you do it?

1. Get Computer Science degree from prominent university. 2. Get job at company that turns out to be a feeder to high-tech startups 3. Job hop a year later to tech company just before its IPO 4. (eventually) start investing a la Bogleheads and stay the course (inc. through the last crash). But sadly...
by freebeer
Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If your networth is over $3 million, how did you do it?
Replies: 270
Views: 33310

Re: How Much Do I Need?

if you zip over to immediate annuities.com you can get very good numbers on whatever combination of annuity dates you like. These are big annuities so overhead costs are small as a percentage. Thanks - but I can't figure out how to gen a quote for a N-year annuity that would stop paying if I died (...
by freebeer
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Do I Need?
Replies: 4
Views: 1077

Re: How Much Do I Need?

One comment on your "smell" test. The study that generated the 4% number was based on retirement at 65. With an additional 10+ years to fund that number will be lower so maybe something in the 3% - 3.5% range is about equivalent risk. Doesn't mean you're not OK with $2.5M but you may not ...
by freebeer
Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Do I Need?
Replies: 4
Views: 1077

How Much Do I Need?

Sadly, we are going through a divorce. We had way more than enough... but I may end up with less than enough. My question is this: to fund annual spending of $84K in today's dollars ($7,000/mo) for a (nearly) 54-year-old male, due to collect SS with PIA of $2,156/mo at age 67 assuming no future earn...
by freebeer
Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Do I Need?
Replies: 4
Views: 1077

Re: Part Time Work in Tech Fields - Early Retirement

One gig that may fit your bill is working on standards. Standards work is long term and lower paced and affords travel opportunities (you have to have the patience for committee meetings though). Anyway if your network includes MegaCorps or government groups that work on standards, and you have some...
by freebeer
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Part Time Work in Tech Fields - Early Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1882

Re: Prudent Investment Portfolio for 58-year Old w/20M Net W

Any asset allocation would work in this situation. A person can't spend all $20 mm ($12 mm liquid) with $375k in annual withdrawals assuming 2% income from all bonds or all stocks. There would be over $5 mm liquid left even after 35 years assuming no growth, plus the illiquid amount. 0% in stocks t...
by freebeer
Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Prudent Investment Portfolio for 58-year Old w/20M Net Worth
Replies: 39
Views: 4835

Re: Elderly parent on path to run out of money in 6 months

My mother ran through her last savings in her early 70s. Some bad choices and money mismanagement en route, plus some bad luck, mainly a contract sale of her long-time business that ended up a legal and financial debacle. She has no assets and small SS payments as her only income. So I provide some ...
by freebeer
Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Elderly parent on path to run out of money in 6 months
Replies: 13
Views: 3120

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

The Prius used market is likely a bit distorted right now as it's one of the cheapest vehicles acceptable for UberX drivers.
by freebeer
Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 53
Views: 4701

Re: Feeling rich to feeling poor overnight

How about a camper van or a boat? Explore more of the area while your GF is here and either keep your below-market rental deal or not and become a super-super-saver or splash out on the occasional fancy hotel/AirBnB weekend. A craigslist RV/sailboat could be a net neutral deal if you sell in 6 month...
by freebeer
Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling rich to feeling poor overnight
Replies: 85
Views: 11064

Re: Mr. Market turns on Amazon

Amazon's present valuation is in effect a probabilistic blend between highly disparate bullish and bearish forecasts, but in that respect it's no different than any other growth stock and debating "bull" vs. "bear" futures doesn't seem particularly constructive. And is this even ...
by freebeer
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Market turns on Amazon
Replies: 42
Views: 4509

Re: [Best Option for Early Termination] of Apartment Lease

You may not want to invest the time but one option I would consider were I in your shoes would be to retain the apartment and be an AirBnB host. Legally this may be considered a sublet in violation of your rental agreement but there's some grey area and a landlord, even if they find out about it, i...
by freebeer
Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Best Option for Early Termination] of Apartment Lease
Replies: 21
Views: 1497

Re: The 1 Thing Successful Investors Never Do

Came across this article on the Motley Fool which I thought was good http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/10/22/the-1-thing-successful-investors-never-do.aspx Really? From the article: "...never give up... Whether your strategy is index investing or a more active form of investing, those...
by freebeer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 1 Thing Successful Investors Never Do
Replies: 12
Views: 4950

Re: Don't auto-renew your ACA plan, shop around

... I am worried about incurring catastrophic health costs outside of my control. Say you get in an accident or are hospitalized for some serious illness and numerous out-of-networks procedures, tests, and consultations are done without your permission. You could easily be looking a 6 figures in ou...
by freebeer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Don't auto-renew your ACA plan, shop around
Replies: 17
Views: 1538

Re: [Best Option for Early Termination] of Apartment Lease

You may not want to invest the time but one option I would consider were I in your shoes would be to retain the apartment and be an AirBnB host. Legally this may be considered a sublet in violation of your rental agreement but there's some grey area and a landlord, even if they find out about it, is...
by freebeer
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Best Option for Early Termination] of Apartment Lease
Replies: 21
Views: 1497

Re: Money Makeovers - Are these legitimate stories?

By eliminating her $6,000 in credit card and other debt, which carry interest rates of 7.75% to 26.99%, Firman could get rid of $750 a month in interest payments...


That kind of "sums" things up right there...
by freebeer
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money Makeovers - Are these legitimate stories?
Replies: 8
Views: 1398

Re: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" ser

...Does anybody use uber when traveling with a corporate card? I would prefer using uber when I travel, but I worry it will be difficult to expense. These days it seems crowdsourced services like Uber and AirBnB are becoming commonly accepted as business expenses. One of my friends uses Uber almost...
by freebeer
Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" service
Replies: 54
Views: 3940

Re: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?

This type of strategy of a small steady gain until catastrophe is referred to by Taleb and others as "picking up nickels in front of a steamroller"...
by freebeer
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?
Replies: 28
Views: 2235

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

Well the problem actually becomes is that IF they are wrong about their assumptions (such as the longevity) then the risk will get transferred back to you since an insurance company's guarantee is only as good as their ability to pay the claim. If everyone starts living to be 200 then they arent go...
by freebeer
Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3735

Re: We have a grocery problem...

...Meat doesn't taste any different if it's fresh or if you leave it in the freezer for a couple of days or even a week. Next time, cook two steaks , one frozen, one fresh. He won't notice a difference, I guarantee it... I completely disagree. Maybe part of this is the quality of fresh meat vs. wha...
by freebeer
Sat Sep 20, 2014 4:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: We have a grocery problem... [Household budget]
Replies: 158
Views: 11374

Re: Sale of a home between boyfriend and girlfriend.

You didn't say how the title is held... if jointly there could be an allocation of ownership percentages based on "Tenants in Common" law in the applicable state, and absent any written agreement to the contrary it's possible that ownership (and thus distribution of profits) could be consi...
by freebeer
Sat Sep 20, 2014 4:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sale of a home between boyfriend and girlfriend.
Replies: 79
Views: 6022

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

Another issue is that your comparison with investment return over the average life expectancy period (20.4 years) ignores the S-shaped curve of the actual graph of human mortality (while by definition 50% of the cohort are alive at L, many more than 25% are alive at L/2 and far fewer than 25% are al...
by freebeer
Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3735

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

LateArrival wrote:...In 2008, I pulled my 401(k) out of the stock market, after listening to some gloom and doom forecasts...


When exactly in 2008 did you do this?
by freebeer
Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6735

Re: Help with a large business decision

You didn't mention what your current savings situation is If the $500K you netted from this year is all you've got then I think sinking almost all of it into the new equipment even with high expected ROI would perhaps be a bit risky, since it would be over-concentrating your capital (financial and h...
by freebeer
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with a large business decision [capital expenditure]
Replies: 36
Views: 1436

Re: Help please with revised plan for living in retirement

What is your inflation assumption? If many of your fixed expenses are potentially subject to inflation, as they are for most people, then 9 years is a long time to rely on cash and it's hard to be sure that you will definitely have "about $132,000" left unless you are being very conservati...
by freebeer
Fri Aug 15, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help please with revised plan for living in retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 2920

Re: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?

Here's the easiest way for me to think about it: Option 1) Own a $600,000 house Option 2) Own a $300,000 house and another $300,000 house that you rent out The expenses and appreciation should be about the same but in one case the rental income is $0, the other it's more. It's basically impossible ...
by freebeer
Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?
Replies: 70
Views: 5585

Re: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady

Update: Mom and I had another run through her math, and it turns out she'd really prefer to draw $180k-200k/yr. (I knew $100k was too low, but I thought it would be closer...) She's now talking more like 3.5%/yr draw ... Does your mother understand that she cannot drawdown 3.5-4% of her portfolio w...
by freebeer
Wed Jul 30, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady
Replies: 59
Views: 4812

Re: Landlording for long-term wealth? Who's doing it?

biggerpockets.com (forum and blog) is probably something you ought to check out.
by freebeer
Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlording for long-term wealth? Who's doing it?
Replies: 68
Views: 8265

Re: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady

You indicate a goal of "preserve principal" which is clearly doable with 2% withdrawal. I would delete "live off the dividends' as the point is total returns sufficient for $100K of spending with principal not shrinking, whether total returns comes from dividends or capital gains is i...
by freebeer
Tue Jul 29, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady
Replies: 59
Views: 4812

Re: Old people and financial advisors - a family tale

... the advisor is not necessarily cheating your uncle either. The advisor is just not doing a good job. He may be sincere in his lousy advising. Advisors have to get paid to do their advising. To say this advisor is unethical may be to say every paid advisor is unethical as they all charge fees, a...
by freebeer
Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old people and financial advisors - a family tale
Replies: 75
Views: 5949
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