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Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

Based on what you say here, you are relating a random act of gambling (where a person mathematically is set to lose over the long run) to a person who invests in the largest 500 US companies. Is that really fair?? I'm not trying to be fair; I was trying to point out that reward and risk go hand in ...
by feh
Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 74
Views: 3252

Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

lisaac wrote:In pure theory you should put everything on 1, but what happens if you are talking about all your retirement money? The risk to lose it all is not worth the gain.


Indeed.

If you want really good potential returns, find a roulette wheel and put everything on green.
by feh
Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 74
Views: 3252

Re: Build Cash Reserves or Contribute to Taxable Account.

I guess my question was, for those using the "3 buckets strategy" or similar, do you really keep 2 whole years worth of cash on hand? If I were in your shoes, yes, I'd want to have a couple years of living expenses in cash-like (ie. cash, CDs, short-term bonds). Insurance against a bad se...
by feh
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Build Cash Reserves or Contribute to Taxable Account.
Replies: 5
Views: 1059

Re: Otar - Tactical Asset Allocation

And to throw you a bone, if you call buying on an RBD "tactical asset allocation", then I do that. Nope. I'm referring specifically to his TAA algorithm. I was just surprised when I came across it, as Otar seems to be well-regarded on this forum, where market timing is greatly frowned upon.
by feh
Fri Apr 18, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Otar - Tactical Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 811

Otar - Tactical Asset Allocation

Hi folks. I'm working my way through Unveiling Retirement Myths , and was surprised to read chapter 24, where Otar describes "Tactical Asset Allocation", which is really just a form of market timing. Essentially, if the previous year's equity returns were below the 6 year moving average, y...
by feh
Fri Apr 18, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Otar - Tactical Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 811

Re: Draft email to investment advisor re outperforming Total

InvestorNewb wrote:I agree with the poster above. It seems you have already made your mind.


+1

Don't bother arguing with the advisor. Manage your portfolio yourself.
by feh
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Draft email to investment advisor re outperforming Total Mar
Replies: 24
Views: 2402

Re: New TV or Sound bar?

As the OP surmised in another thread, unless simplicity and space limitations are paramount, many people seeking better sound might be better off with a modest 2.1 or 3.1 system with a capable receiver. One need not be an audiophile to know that seeking better audio quality can be a very slippery s...
by feh
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV or Sound bar?
Replies: 38
Views: 2227

Re: Any Interesting Income Alternatives to Bonds

Bank loan (aka floating rate) funds fit your description. Although most people here do not favor them.
by feh
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Interesting Income Alternatives to Bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 1693

Re: Lost $10K in my investments past few months

Stoney178 wrote:in the past few months i lost about $10K in my retirement investments and my biotech mutual fund has tanked as well. is this downswing in the market temporary? whats everyone doing now..staying the course as always?


You haven't lost a dime, unless you sold shares at a loss.
by feh
Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $10K in my investments past few months
Replies: 36
Views: 4358

Re: How often do you rebalance to maintain your AA

I also suggest using bands, rather than intervals.

If you insist on doing it every X months, Jim Otar recommends no more often than once a year; ideally only every 4 years, IIRC.
by feh
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How often do you rebalance to maintain your AA
Replies: 35
Views: 1681

Re: Newbie - Need help with my first taxable account

The taxable account can lose money too. If you had 100K taxable account that was 60K stocks, you could lose 30K if stocks crash. It's not an all or nothing deal. You can do a little of both so you can't be 100% wrong either way. What about investing 2.8K/month in the taxable account and paying $100...
by feh
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie - Need help with my first taxable account
Replies: 8
Views: 708

Re: Tax Freedom Day later this year

I choose to focus on the 8 months and 10 days that are tax-free. :happy
by feh
Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Freedom Day later this year
Replies: 5
Views: 597

Re: Interest rates will rise, so flee REITS and Bonds?

No comment regarding bonds, but the real estate market was far, far from normal during that period.
by feh
Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rates will rise, so flee REITS and Bonds?
Replies: 12
Views: 1280

Re: Best option for high interest earning no fee checking?

A little-known fact is that Ally is in an agreement with regulators to offer no higher than the sixth-highest savings account rate on bankrate.com. Why is that good? They're consistently sixth. The list of institutions above them changes frequently, but Ally is always among the foremost, which cuts...
by feh
Mon Apr 07, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best option for high interest earning no fee checking?
Replies: 19
Views: 1636

Re: Why pay off your house?

IMD801 wrote:Assuming all tax advantaged space is filled:

Prepay mortgage (4.5%) or fund taxable account?


I suggest throwing some money at both; it doesn't have to be either/or.
by feh
Mon Apr 07, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why pay off your house?
Replies: 119
Views: 8611

Re: Preparing for the time to "fill-up the Bucket"

EmergDoc wrote:Since you've decided to use buckets, you have to define what the buckets mean, what they're for, and how they're allocated.


+1

Please provide more information.
by feh
Mon Apr 07, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for the time to "fill-up the Bucket"
Replies: 10
Views: 1766

Re: Auto Accident Advice

Dogleheabs wrote:After a thought-filled night, we decided to go through insurance. I will update this thread with my thoughts later. I hope this thread can be of some anecdotal help to others in the future.


Glad to hear it. I think that was a wise decision.
by feh
Fri Apr 04, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Accident Advice
Replies: 31
Views: 1708

Re: is there a subsidy cliff for the ACA?

If you're younger and in an area with generally low insurance costs, you might not get much at just under 400% because the policies are already at under 9.5% of your income. This is the case for us, as an online calculator has demonstrated for me. In other words, while there is a cliff, its effect ...
by feh
Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is there a subsidy cliff for the ACA?
Replies: 13
Views: 810

Re: is there a subsidy cliff for the ACA?

I recommend this source for the premium tax credit information , and this one for the cost sharing reduction . PJW Thanks very much! I'm beginning to realize, due to some passive income, we likely won't be receiving any subsidies, even though our annual expenses would put us at maybe 200% of the FPL.
by feh
Thu Apr 03, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is there a subsidy cliff for the ACA?
Replies: 13
Views: 810

is there a subsidy cliff for the ACA?

Hi folks. I'm considering early retirement in a couple years, and am trying to get a clear picture of our annual expenses. One of those expenses will be health insurance. To wit - are there any cliffs in the subsidy calculations? Any particular number for AGI I need to try to stay under, or are the ...
by feh
Thu Apr 03, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is there a subsidy cliff for the ACA?
Replies: 13
Views: 810

Re: Do You Need Commodities in Your Portfolio?

We don't hold any commodities in our portfolio. I don't see the utility.

When I first became a boglehead, we held stocks, bonds and REITs (for the sake of argument, let's consider REITs a separate asset type). We have since rid ourselves of REITs also; just stocks and bonds now...
by feh
Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Need Commodities in Your Portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 1339

Re: Retirement pulse check

Since you are trying to predict events many decades away, it is very hard. I would recommend saving what you can without depriving yourselves of a reasonable life style. You can spend the money now or later. It is up to you. At your age, I would shoot for saving 15-20% of gross. If you want to reti...
by feh
Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement pulse check
Replies: 15
Views: 1414

Re: The Most Critical Investment Decision: Time Horizon

I highly recommend buying Otar's book, which is discussed here:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=49314

The download is something like $7 and definitely worth it.
by feh
Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Critical Investment Decision: Time Horizon
Replies: 10
Views: 1829

Re: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withd

In other words, in facing retirement withdrawal decisions, why is someone with that house in exactly the same position as someone without it? Because you can't spend your house. Home equity should be used in your net worth. It shouldn't be considered part of your portfolio, unless: - you know you w...
by feh
Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withdrawa
Replies: 41
Views: 2105

Re: New graph on Personal Capital Dashboard

Oddly enough, the number they're reporting for me is pretty much right in line with what firecalc says I could withdraw per month without depletion.
by feh
Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New graph on Personal Capital Dashboard
Replies: 12
Views: 1311

Re: How much do you make a year in Dividends?

Just about 2%. S&P index is a bit under that number, and medium term bond index is a bit over.
by feh
Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much do you make a year in Dividends?
Replies: 72
Views: 5735

Re: How did you decide how much to save?

Save too much and you're denying yourself in the present I don't think this is true. Depending on your salary and interests (and the associated costs), I could see somebody saving more than 50% of their salary and being perfectly happy. save too little and your future won't be very bright. This, I ...
by feh
Fri Mar 14, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you decide how much to save?
Replies: 119
Views: 9182

Re: 401k switched to Fidelity. Which Bond Fund...

I have the same question - there aren't any Fido bond funds available?

I hold FSITX.
by feh
Fri Mar 14, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k switched to Fidelity. Which Bond Fund...
Replies: 19
Views: 1392

Re: Where do you keep intermediate-term holdings?

Large, occasional expenses (ie. home remodeling, cars, property taxes, etc) are part of our emergency fund. We keep it in online savings.
by feh
Fri Mar 14, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you keep intermediate-term holdings?
Replies: 8
Views: 956

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

As I see it the aggressive investor (Buffett in one) realizes the stocks and real estate are the assets the generate growth in value over time and bonds do not provide the growth. Therefore, the approach is to maximize exposure to the growth assets and use bonds to fund expense for the next few yea...
by feh
Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 25063

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

I am curious to know what other forum members who are in similar situation are doing ? What does YOUR AA looks like/looked like when you are/were close to retirement ? Two years from retirement here, 47 years old. Currently have 35x expenses. AA is 70/30. Planning on something between 60-65 equitie...
by feh
Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 25063

Re: Paying $1,000/yr to Vanguard ! Please Help Me

Random Musings wrote:With respect to the ER issue, I thought this was an early April 1st joke. Especially when comping to other expenses 30 to 60 times higher per year.

For the service provided, Vanguard is charging you fairly.


+1

Vanguard is providing a service. There will be a cost for that service.
by feh
Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying $1,000/yr to Vanguard ! Please Help Me
Replies: 40
Views: 6705

Re: % of annual income saved compared to final portfolio goa

I can't give a number. The annual percentage varied greatly over the last 25 years.
by feh
Tue Mar 11, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: % of annual income saved compared to final portfolio goal
Replies: 33
Views: 2644

Re: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09

dipsylala wrote:(2) Oh, my 1 million just shrunk to half a million! I cannot sleep well at night, but I'll hold on to my shares.


We didn't sell, and continued funding retirement accounts. Ideally, we would've rebalanced, but I wasn't a boglehead at the time.

It wasn't fun, but we didn't freak out.
by feh
Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09
Replies: 104
Views: 5453

Re: Utah 529 Advice

We've always used a custom plan. Reduced the risk even more last fall, as our son is 4 years away from needing the money, and returns the last few years have grown the account to above our initial goal. No need to risk it, so why would we? OP - given the sums you are planning on contributing, I don'...
by feh
Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Utah 529 Advice
Replies: 10
Views: 526

Re: Joint or Separate Accounts? - Married Couples

Everything is joint, except IRAs and my 401k. Of course, the spouse is the beneficiary on accounts in only one person's name. Since marriage, I've probably earned 90% of our income.

Married for 25 years.
by feh
Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joint or Separate Accounts? - Married Couples
Replies: 82
Views: 3370

Re: your lowest exspense ratio fund in 401

My S&P 500 fund is .05%
by feh
Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: your lowest exspense ratio fund in 401
Replies: 31
Views: 1574

Re: How Many Funds Do You Have in Taxable?

total US market
total ex-US market
US small value
ex-US small
by feh
Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Funds Do You Have in Taxable?
Replies: 97
Views: 4900

Re: Need help tilting with fidelity. Choices are confusing

Trying to construct a portfolio with a small tilt. Was panning on 50% large cap and 50% small/mid cap in the Domestic part of my equity allocation. I'm looking at the fidelity spartan advantage choices and there's an extended market fund FSEVX as well as a mid cap index fund FSCKX and a small cap i...
by feh
Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help tilting with fidelity. Choices are confusing me.
Replies: 3
Views: 260

Re: How Much of Tax Refund Do You Save/Spend..??

It's been a while since we received a refund, but when we did, all of it was invested/saved.

It's not clear to me why people want to treat tax refunds as something that requires special handling. Money is fungible.
by feh
Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much of Tax Refund Do You Save/Spend..??
Replies: 68
Views: 2420

Re: What to say to Non-Savers

I'm going to retire at 50, 15 years before any of my friends/family.

That is the reward.
by feh
Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to say to Non-Savers
Replies: 71
Views: 5181

Re: 529 contributions and future tuition costs

At this point we are still in the infancy of online classes offered from places like udacity, coursera, kahn academy, edx, etc.. All that being said, I do not think it is unwise to save prodigiously for college, but I do believe it to be prudent to consider these possibilities for the future. I ech...
by feh
Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 contributions and future tuition costs
Replies: 46
Views: 2270

Re: short term investment as of today

crowd79 wrote:
mml44 wrote:5% reward checking. No bond can beat that.http://www.myconsumers.org/personal/che ... cking.html


I don't like all the hoops I would have to jump through to get that rate. Thanks but no thanks..


Additionally, the 5% is only on the first $10K. Not worth it.
by feh
Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: short term investment as of today
Replies: 11
Views: 790

Re: short term investment as of today

Call_Me_Op wrote:Depends upon if you really need all of the money in 3-5 years. If so, a bond fund may not be appropriate.


I'm willing to accept the interest rate risk on a fund w/ an average duration of 2.4 years. I'm more interested in which option will provide the better returns.
by feh
Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: short term investment as of today
Replies: 11
Views: 790

short term investment as of today

Hi folks. Investing money that I'll need in 3-5 years. My approach has been a combination of I Bonds, CDs and short term munis (this is all in taxable accounts). I've purchased my I Bonds for the year, and PenFed CD rates have declined. So, as of today, would you choose short-term munis (I use VMLTX...
by feh
Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: short term investment as of today
Replies: 11
Views: 790

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

sorry, my math was a bit off. at 8%, you'll finish with 72k in 18 years. you're also right that i need to re-adjust a bit, maybe $250 a month. but the SUNY schools right now are ~88k for 4 years. 250 a month at 8% gives me 120k. so even if the tuition literally doubles (and it probably won't be THA...
by feh
Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 6114

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

sorry, my math was a bit off. at 8%, you'll finish with 72k in 18 years. you're also right that i need to re-adjust a bit, maybe $250 a month. but the SUNY schools right now are ~88k for 4 years. 250 a month at 8% gives me 120k. so even if the tuition literally doubles (and it probably won't be THA...
by feh
Thu Feb 27, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 6114

Re: what's your number?? (for married couples)

Roughly (years of retirement) * (annual expenses), in real dollars.
by feh
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what's your number?? (for married couples)
Replies: 70
Views: 6114

Re: VG Seminar: Spending strategies for your retirement year

I signed up.

I've never watched a Vanguard presentation like this. Are they generally useful?
by feh
Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Seminar: Spending strategies for your retirement years
Replies: 7
Views: 1209
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