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Re: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil

You can't make a direct bet on oil, for the simple reason that storing oil is expensive (unlike, say, gold). Well (pun intended), you can store oil. Just leave it in the ground where nature has been storing it for millions of years. If you want to know really accurately how much you've got, drill s...
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil
Replies: 28
Views: 2333

Re: Do Companies Index Their Profits?

I've wondered why companies that retain earnings purely for tax reasons don't invest in stock indexes.
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 22, 2014 2:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Companies Index Their Profits?
Replies: 15
Views: 1209

Re: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil

You can't make a direct bet on oil, for the simple reason that storing oil is expensive (unlike, say, gold). If you buy oil futures or oil stocks, your investment will do better if oil goes up than if it doesn't, but that's not the same thing as an investment that profits if oil goes up by any amount.
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 22, 2014 2:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil
Replies: 28
Views: 2333

Re: Update: 6 years into Buffett's Bet With Hedge Funds

Did anyone go to the Morningstar article linked to in the OP's link? (That is confusing, here is the link) http://www.morningstar.in/posts/27750/will-warren-buffett-win-this-bet.aspx This part was shocking to me. I knew it was bad, but I didn't think it was this bad: When hedge-fund managers do gen...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 7:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update: 6 years into Buffett's Bet With Hedge Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 2780

Re: Understanding why we market weight

a zero turnover fund might be even better, and it would necessarily not be market weighted (or anything-weighted). Just buy the very best single company stock. No turnover you don't control. Problem solved. Of course, some investors live in a more realistic world. There used to be a zero turnover E...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding why we market weight
Replies: 18
Views: 1633

Re: Understanding why we market weight

Wish peter71 were still active in the forum; he was something of a fan of equal weighting (or at least didn't dislike it). I like market weighted stock funds because of the low turnover. But a zero turnover fund might be even better, and it would necessarily not be market weighted (or anything-weigh...
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding why we market weight
Replies: 18
Views: 1633

Re: My MMF just distributed a LTCG

Uncle Pennybags wrote:How can a MM fund have a LTCG? I thought they held very short term securities, nothing close to a year.


Ordinary bonds are limited to 397 days, but certain types of variable rate bonds have no maturity limit.
by dumbmoney
Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My MMF just distributed a LTCG
Replies: 10
Views: 1414

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

This reminds me of ishares Diversified Alternatives Trust (ALT):

viewtopic.php?t=46143

which during its 3.5 year existence didn't do much of anything (good or bad).
by dumbmoney
Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 205
Views: 21295

Re: DVD-R, RW and VHS Player

I just threw away a couple of VHS units because I haven't used them for 15 years.

Still have an analog Tivo that I don't use, and will probably throw away also.

What exactly do you want to record?
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DVD-R, RW and VHS Player
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: What happened to the audiophile?

Bad sounding MP3s existed for a blip of time, and disappeared 10 years ago. The baseline standard these days is perfection. So I can't relate to complaints about the purely technical aspects of music. Everything is so good, it's boring. There's no excitement in a mature, stagnant technology.
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to the audiophile?[High quality music sources]
Replies: 71
Views: 4096

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that the only method of predicting momentum returns is to assume the historical return. With stocks/bonds/cash, there are methods of predicting the return besides assuming the historical. Yields and such. That's a comfort since you are not just blindly betting t...
by dumbmoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 94
Views: 6564

Re: Light Bulb Durability

Even LEDs contain toxic elements: The Dark Side of LED Lightbulbs . (FWIW that piece seems a bit over the top, especially as it comes from Scientific Americans. They take LEDs to task because they contain copper. Well duh, guess how much more copper there is in the power lines to those LEDs, never ...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Durability
Replies: 59
Views: 4760

Re: What smartphone plan do you use?- off contract

You ought to be able to get that down to $40/month with AirVoice or H2O for example, but coverage is on the prepaid network which has a few gaps here and there. If you'd be happy with 500Mb you can get it down to $30. So the network is AT&T but the coverage isn't a drop in replacement? I've alw...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What smartphone plan do you use?- off contract
Replies: 100
Views: 6023

Re: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports

My memories of sports around that age are that I hated it, because I literally didn't know what I was doing. Didn't know the rules, couldn't play without making a fool of myself. It was embarrassing, not fun.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports
Replies: 115
Views: 5900

Re: why not closed end mutual funds?

I recall some people on the forum bought closed end funds at a deep discount (20% or more) during the 2008 financial crisis. That was a good move, but in general, I think they should be avoided.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not closed end mutual funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1526

Re: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 yea

Isn't the all-knowing efficient market the font of all investment wisdom, representing the collective judgment of all that is currently known? If it says the collective average investor owns 37% stocks, what makes you think you are wiser and therefore it is better to own more than that? According t...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years
Replies: 38
Views: 4672

Re: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 yea

I would suggest that the AAII asset allocation survey is more meaningful. And it shows that the average stock allocation is above the long term average of 60% (not surprising since stocks have gained a lot recently and not everyone rebalances). It's more interesting to know what people somewhat like...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jun 06, 2014 6:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years
Replies: 38
Views: 4672

Re: Can we have negative interest rates?

In short, it's not going to happen. It did happen. It's happening right now. Before now the smallest interest rate move in the history of the european central bank was 0.25% (see http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html). The latest move was 0.1%. They can keep cutting rates...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we have negative interest rates?
Replies: 33
Views: 3428

Re: Can we have negative interest rates?

An arbitrarily negative central bank target rate isn't possible under the current system, because of the option to withdraw currency (with its fixed 0% yield). Currently there isn't any central bank that is even at zero. Japan is lowest, but they haven't been as low as zero for years. In short, it's...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we have negative interest rates?
Replies: 33
Views: 3428

Last chance to sell Russian investments?

I wonder what would happen to a U.S. investment in Russian stocks (or bonds for that matter) if serious economic sanctions were imposed (such as the sanctions on Iran). Any guess as to what the damage would be, -50%? -90%? -100%? As of 02/28/2014, Russia is 6.4% of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets and...
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Last chance to sell Russian investments?
Replies: 2
Views: 322

Re: Thought experiment: a "diversification" joke

Occasionally someone will ask about holding 50% growth index and 50% value index for diversification. That is "funny" because those indexes are usually rebalanced to 50% market weight (so a 50/50 mix replicates the total market, at least if you rebalance in sync with the indexes).
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 03, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought experiment: a "diversification" joke
Replies: 8
Views: 1079

Re: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW

How much free space do you have available? If you're only using, say, 10GB out of the 50GB, then you could shrink down the Windows partition to 20GB and use the remainder for linux. That way you could always go back to XP if you needed it for something.
by dumbmoney
Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW
Replies: 61
Views: 3466

Re: LED lights currently worth it personal financewise?

The Crees have a 10 year warranty, which inspires confidence even if nobody knows if they will last. Definitely start buying them, but there's no sense in doing a mass conversion. Incandescents are good for little-used lights, and if a flourescent is working well I would leave it alone. And the pric...
by dumbmoney
Sun Mar 16, 2014 3:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED lights currently worth it personal financewise?
Replies: 55
Views: 2791

Re: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?

Buybacks are consistently larger than dividends now for U.S. stocks (something to keep in mind when comparing current dividend yield to the historical average). So one answer to the question is, they don't.
by dumbmoney
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?
Replies: 126
Views: 5947

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

A stock that never paid any dividends (and never was sold, etc). would have present value of future dividend flow of infinity times zero, i.e. it would be indeterminate, i.e. it would be whatever people believed. But a stock that is going to pay dividends someday has a value. It's "pay me now ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 5011

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
dumbmoney wrote:In fact the Fed still owns a vestigial hoard of gold.

It does not.


Thanks for the correction.
by dumbmoney
Thu Feb 27, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 5011

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

... (Incidentally, a similar issue comes up when people talk about the fundamental value of inconvertible paper money. Money is a debt of the central bank even if it's inconvertible for an indefinite period of time. Only when the bank goes out of business, or ceases to regard the money as its debt,...
by dumbmoney
Thu Feb 27, 2014 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 5011

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

And then there is Berkshire Hathaway, where the company's ownership has made it clear they will never p ay a dividend. They've made it clear that they won't pay a dividend for an indefinite period of time. That's not at all the same as never paying a dividend. (Incidentally, a similar issue comes u...
by dumbmoney
Thu Feb 27, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 5011

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

I have now heard the comments that bitcoin is not really a "currency" in the true sense but more like a commodity (gold). With the volatility it has shown over the past year, that is still an understatement. It might be a better analogy-- I like that. Bitcoin is a commodity not a currency...
by dumbmoney
Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 21084

Re: Quant funds find reality simply too hard

The hedge funds should not have been blindsided by the existence of the Federal Reserve, it was created in 1913 and a hundred years is long enough that they ought to have heard about it and what it does. If 100 years isn't enough, the Bank of England was founded in 1694. (Not that I think central b...
by dumbmoney
Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quant funds find reality simply too hard
Replies: 12
Views: 1161

Re: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Return

Long-term investing in a fixed portfolio is probably very risky, as companies go out of business. If you invest in an index like the S&P 500, the composition is continually changing as less successful companies are replaced in the makeup of the index. I am willing to bet, for example, that a po...
by dumbmoney
Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-Term Risk, Mean Reversion, and Dispersion of Returns
Replies: 20
Views: 1692

Re: Is 60/40 really the gold standard?

Peter Bernstein agrees that 60/40 is a great asset allocation. As you likely know, Peter Bernstein would go on to flip flop on this position only a year later, as Bogle notes in: http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20030605.html Thanks for the link, that's a nice essay that I don't remember readin...
by dumbmoney
Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 really the gold standard?
Replies: 35
Views: 5543

Re: BRK go to for weird risks - NCAA bracket bet

Zero market correlation.
by dumbmoney
Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK go to for weird risks - NCAA bracket bet
Replies: 16
Views: 1496

Re: Is there a low cost cell phone plan, limited minutes?

Someone already mentioned about lycamobile(uses T-mobiles network). I have been using this for quite sometime as with lycamobile there is no contract. And if you dont want to pay any monthly charges you just pay as you go.I use their pay as you go plan for 2c a minute.No monthly charges. you bring ...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there a low cost cell phone plan, limited minutes?
Replies: 66
Views: 4434

Re: Bond funds are not riskier than bond ladders

Suppose a fund satisfies redemptions by selling the most liquid bonds. This works fine as long as redemptions are balanced by inflows. It also works fine as long as the market for the illiquid bonds doesn't rapidly change. But if informed investors exit, then the fund's buffer of liquid bonds will ...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds are not riskier than bond ladders
Replies: 120
Views: 6939

Re: Bond funds are not riskier than bond ladders

I'm not sure of the actual mechanics, and I don't think anyone's given an authoritative answer to the question, but to a first approximation I don't see why it would. Say investors X and Y each own shares amounting to one millionth of the fund. Conceptually one could imagine all of the fund's asset...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds are not riskier than bond ladders
Replies: 120
Views: 6939

Re: Jack Bogle: We Need to Fix the Bond Index

My interpretation of what Jack is saying is that he'd rather have a bond index that mimics the average bond fund, rather than an index that mimics the bond market. This would benefit investors if the bond funds' asset allocation is somehow better for the typical investor than the market allocation (...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: We Need to Fix the Bond Index
Replies: 77
Views: 7321

Re: Trouble trusting US healthcare

Most doctors are ethical, but some just want to make as much money as possible. No great sales skills are required. When a doctor recommends something, it's hard to say no.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trouble trusting US healthcare
Replies: 70
Views: 3426

Re: The Funniest Movie Ever

Apart from "Airplane!", the Zucker-Abrams-Zucker crew did a lot of other great ones. "The Naked Gun" series is probably the most notable, but don't forget "Kentucky Fried Movie", "Hot Shots!", and "Top Secret!". (For a deeper dive, check out the six...
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 02, 2014 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Funniest Movie Ever
Replies: 227
Views: 15711

Re: The Funniest Movie Ever

Being There
A Fish Called Wanda
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Funniest Movie Ever
Replies: 227
Views: 15711

Re: From a flip phone to a smart phone, can I do this?

With google voice (free), you can have a phone number that rings multiple phones, such as a cell phone and skype (a voip service). Skype costs $5/month. You can save money, but I wouldn't recommend it if you want something that "just works" without effort.
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 30, 2013 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: From a flip phone to a smart phone, can I do this?
Replies: 16
Views: 1107

Re: Just returned new laptop with Window 8.1

So what can you do with Windows 8, that you can't do with Windows 7, or for that matter Windows XP ? Vista/7/8 vs XP...64-bit (actually there is a little known 64-bit version of XP, but not widely used or supported), newer DirectX (needed for latest games), that's about it. 8 vs 7...8 should be cal...
by dumbmoney
Fri Dec 27, 2013 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Just returned new laptop with Window 8.1
Replies: 104
Views: 9161

Re: Just returned new laptop with Window 8.1

It's possible to use Win8 almost exactly like previous versions with a little setup:
1) install Classic Shell: http://www.classicshell.net
2) change program defaults so that full screen tablet mode doesn't get accidentally invoked when you click on files
by dumbmoney
Thu Dec 26, 2013 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Just returned new laptop with Window 8.1
Replies: 104
Views: 9161

Re: Small caps overvalued?

If small or value or whatever has done better than theory predicts, then you should expect some reversion to the mean and you should not be greedy and expect to be able to keep all the outperformance during the good times while hopping out and avoiding the underperformance during the bad times--tha...
by dumbmoney
Fri Dec 20, 2013 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small caps overvalued?
Replies: 55
Views: 8196

Re: No Silver Bullets (Just Old Snake Oil in New Bottles)

Did you notice that the GMO emerging market stock forecast changed from 6.5% on Sept. 30 to 3.2% on Oct. 31? I don't think market movements can account for that...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 10, 2013 12:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Silver Bullets (Just Old Snake Oil in New Bottles)
Replies: 6
Views: 2131

Re: E-Book subscriptions ?

nisiprius wrote:
Achelois wrote:...Additionally, I have the Overdrive app and download both e-books and audiobooks from my town's library....
Me, too. Quite valuable.


It's great when they have something you want, but don't you find the Overdrive selection to be terrible? Or is it only my library?
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 09, 2013 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: E-Book subscriptions ?
Replies: 18
Views: 696

Re: Is there a way for you and I to borrow at the Fed rate?

Not directly. But in effect, you can borrow at something close to the Fed Funds rate by using index futures. Obligatory MT thread link:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=5934
by dumbmoney
Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a way for you and I to borrow at the Fed rate?
Replies: 11
Views: 1127

Re: Connecting HDTV without HDMI box

I only have basic cable and watch mostly local stations. If I drop Comcast and just use an antenna to pick up local stations do you know -- 1. WIll these stations be in HD? 2. What will be the resolution, 480, 720, 1080? Yes. ABC and FOX use 720, the others use 1080. Sub-channels (e.g. weather) are...
by dumbmoney
Sun Dec 01, 2013 7:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Connecting HDTV without HDMI box
Replies: 35
Views: 2106

Re: Connecting HDTV without HDMI box

You would connect the cable box to your new plasma TV the same way as you do now. Nothing changes. http://customer.comcast.com/help-and-support/cable-tv/cable-box-user-manuals/ Perhaps, but only if the OP is not using the COMPOSITE cable option presently. I seem to recall that High Def only works w...
by dumbmoney
Sat Nov 30, 2013 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Connecting HDTV without HDMI box
Replies: 35
Views: 2106
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