Search found 2204 matches

by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Greatest money lesson movie
Replies: 63
Views: 5669

Re: Greatest money lesson movie

Fargo
by dumbmoney
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wiring home network cable type?
Replies: 30
Views: 1939

Re: Wiring home network cable type?

Another option is IP over your electrical wiring. I use that to connect my modem/wifi with another wifi in another part of the house. Works great. I have one of those, a recent highly touted model, and in my testing it didn't work well at all. Tried in my home and another building; they worked only...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index and China A-Shares, 1995-2015
Replies: 4
Views: 528

Re: Emerging Markets Index and China A-Shares, 1995-2015

Are you sure your graph includes dividends?
by dumbmoney
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we care about price movements? Aren't earnings all that matter?
Replies: 44
Views: 3499

Re: Why do we care about price movements? Aren't earnings all that matter?

You can't strictly speaking live off earnings because you don't know what the future holds. You can sell your stocks based on an earnings forecast (which may indeed ignore stock prices). However, this doesn't make you immune to stock price movements. What is true is that planning to die rich is a mo...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)
Replies: 43
Views: 4475

Re: Bloomberg Article: The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market

Gus Sauter of Vanguard has acknowledged that the S&P500 index probably suffers from 25 bps of front running Does this suggest an offsetting benefit to the Extended Market Index? If so, since the market cap of the S&P 500 is 4 times the market cap of the Extended Market Index, does that mean...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Half of China Major Stocks Cease Trading. Impact Globally?
Replies: 36
Views: 3591

Re: Half of China Major Stocks Cease Trading. Impact Globally?

Doesn't it kind of defeat the purpose of having a stock market, if you can't sell when you like?
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 08, 2015 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)
Replies: 43
Views: 4475

Re: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)

You might enjoy this article: "Where Bloomberg Discovers That Large Orders Have Market Impact" http://kiddynamitesworld.com/where-bloomberg-discovers-that-large-orders-have-market-impact/ The short version is that the price changes (to the disadvantage of index investors) are not caused by...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you could invest directly in the HML "factor?"
Replies: 18
Views: 2988

Re: What if you could invest directly in the HML "factor?"

Do these factor returns include the return on cash? Because a hypothetical costless HML hedge fund would deliver the return on cash plus the HML return. If you put $1 into the hedge fund, it would invest $1 in treasury bills, short $1 of stocks, and with the cash from the short invest $1 in stocks.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?
Replies: 237
Views: 19718

Re: Free Windows 10 Upgrade, Yes or No?

I've been using the pre-release Win10 and either I'm very unlucky or it's got a frightening number of bugs. So my advice is to wait at least a few months before upgrading.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 01, 2015 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SSD + HDD good option for upgrading desktop PC?
Replies: 47
Views: 4431

Re: SSD + HDD good option for upgrading desktop PC?

When I installed an SSD my boot time went from 30 seconds to 15 seconds, or something like that. Half the time anyway (not including initial BIOS throat clearing, though).
by dumbmoney
Thu May 14, 2015 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would you want "capped" indices?
Replies: 17
Views: 1386

Re: At what point would you want "capped" indices?

You can always de-concentrate your stock portfolio by adding mid/small cap funds, so I'm not sure a cap is necessary.
by dumbmoney
Thu May 14, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Internet - Cat 5e or Cat 6
Replies: 49
Views: 3602

Re: Home Internet - Cat 5e or Cat 6

FYI, a forthcoming standard will allow 2.5 or 5 gigabits over Cat5 (they have belatedly realized that jumping from 1G to 10G was a mistake). You won't regret wiring the house. Even if you end up using mainly WiFi, you can put WiFi access points anywhere you like, without using kludges like repeaters...
by dumbmoney
Wed May 13, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The BIG problem with the S&P 500 index?
Replies: 37
Views: 6304

Re: The BIG problem with the S&P 500 index?

If you compare large cap or total market indexes, they are all quite similar. As they must be, since they all include the same ultra large stocks that make up a large percentage of the (cap weighted) indexes.
by dumbmoney
Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982
Replies: 56
Views: 6027

Re: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1984

Excluding dividends and capital gains, the stock market hardly returns anything.

But seriously, does he think that the long term shift from dividends to buybacks is a bad omen or something? Is Warren Buffet's company a Ponzi scheme because it doesn't pay dividends?
by dumbmoney
Sun Apr 05, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: smartphones
Replies: 24
Views: 2336

Re: smartphones

Smartphones are cheap enough (my last one cost $50, not including the add-on memory card) that they're pretty easy to justify for a traditional dumbphone user. There are plenty of uses that don't involve communications: offline maps/GPS, music, books, games, etc. Since I don't have a GPS unit in my ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Mar 06, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Archival CD - MDisc
Replies: 25
Views: 1834

Re: Archival CD - MDisc

I suspect many people underestimate the life of ordinary media. I've recently gone back through old media in my personal possession and had generally good results. The vast majority of decade-old optical discs are fully readable now, and for the ones that aren't, I'm not sure if they were good when...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors and zero-sum investing
Replies: 58
Views: 3351

Re: Factors and zero-sum investing

For some reason, people who practice factor investing are reluctant to say they can beat their fellow, less factor enlightened, investors. Beating the market is gauche. It's much cooler to say that one is diversifying among asset classes.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Malware problem on new PC
Replies: 42
Views: 2854

Re: Malware problem on new PC

A few years ago you would have had to do something boneheaded to get malware, but now it's such a jungle...even legit programs come bundled with "optional" malware (optional in the sense that if you read everything carefully and click/unclick the right boxes, you can avoid installing it. B...
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?
Replies: 29
Views: 2186

Re: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?

I wouldn't exactly call it free money. A lot of the hard to borrow, high rebate stocks are eventually headed to zero. Yeah. It might actually be better to sell such stocks than to lend them at exorbitant rates. Even an index fund can do this, provided that sampling is acceptable. As for not-hard-to...
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3703

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

How can a central bank, with the capacity to create an unlimited amount of money, become insolvent in any meaningful sense? It's insolvent if it can't main price stability (i.e. a constant rate of inflation). That does not make sense, at least under standard definitions and practices. Central banks...
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3703

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

richard wrote:How can a central bank, with the capacity to create an unlimited amount of money, become insolvent in any meaningful sense?


It's insolvent if it can't main price stability (i.e. a constant rate of inflation).
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non Dividend Paying Stocks in Index Mutual Funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 889

Re: Non Dividend Paying Stocks in Index Mutual Funds?

darrellr wrote:But lack of a dividend can be a yellow flag. Some say dividends prove the company has real cash. I don't believe Enron had dividends.


It did.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to sell international bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 1717

Time to sell international bonds?

European bond yields are crazy low. Japanese bond yields are (still) crazy low. Diversification is good all things being equal, but this asset class seems like a sure loser. Anyone disagree?
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil
Replies: 28
Views: 2932

Re: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil

You can't make a direct bet on oil, for the simple reason that storing oil is expensive (unlike, say, gold). Well (pun intended), you can store oil. Just leave it in the ground where nature has been storing it for millions of years. If you want to know really accurately how much you've got, drill s...
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 22, 2014 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Companies Index Their Profits?
Replies: 15
Views: 1344

Re: Do Companies Index Their Profits?

I've wondered why companies that retain earnings purely for tax reasons don't invest in stock indexes.
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 22, 2014 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil
Replies: 28
Views: 2932

Re: How to make a long bet on Crude Oil

You can't make a direct bet on oil, for the simple reason that storing oil is expensive (unlike, say, gold). If you buy oil futures or oil stocks, your investment will do better if oil goes up than if it doesn't, but that's not the same thing as an investment that profits if oil goes up by any amount.
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update: 6 years into Buffett's Bet With Hedge Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 3080

Re: Update: 6 years into Buffett's Bet With Hedge Funds

Did anyone go to the Morningstar article linked to in the OP's link? (That is confusing, here is the link) http://www.morningstar.in/posts/27750/will-warren-buffett-win-this-bet.aspx This part was shocking to me. I knew it was bad, but I didn't think it was this bad: When hedge-fund managers do gen...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding why we market weight
Replies: 18
Views: 1713

Re: Understanding why we market weight

a zero turnover fund might be even better, and it would necessarily not be market weighted (or anything-weighted). Just buy the very best single company stock. No turnover you don't control. Problem solved. Of course, some investors live in a more realistic world. There used to be a zero turnover E...
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding why we market weight
Replies: 18
Views: 1713

Re: Understanding why we market weight

Wish peter71 were still active in the forum; he was something of a fan of equal weighting (or at least didn't dislike it). I like market weighted stock funds because of the low turnover. But a zero turnover fund might be even better, and it would necessarily not be market weighted (or anything-weigh...
by dumbmoney
Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My MMF just distributed a LTCG
Replies: 10
Views: 1490

Re: My MMF just distributed a LTCG

Uncle Pennybags wrote:How can a MM fund have a LTCG? I thought they held very short term securities, nothing close to a year.


Ordinary bonds are limited to 397 days, but certain types of variable rate bonds have no maturity limit.
by dumbmoney
Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 319
Views: 43802

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

This reminds me of ishares Diversified Alternatives Trust (ALT):

viewtopic.php?t=46143

which during its 3.5 year existence didn't do much of anything (good or bad).
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DVD-R, RW and VHS Player
Replies: 13
Views: 1397

Re: DVD-R, RW and VHS Player

I just threw away a couple of VHS units because I haven't used them for 15 years.

Still have an analog Tivo that I don't use, and will probably throw away also.

What exactly do you want to record?
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to the audiophile?[High quality music sources]
Replies: 71
Views: 4534

Re: What happened to the audiophile?

Bad sounding MP3s existed for a blip of time, and disappeared 10 years ago. The baseline standard these days is perfection. So I can't relate to complaints about the purely technical aspects of music. Everything is so good, it's boring. There's no excitement in a mature, stagnant technology.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 108
Views: 8896

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that the only method of predicting momentum returns is to assume the historical return. With stocks/bonds/cash, there are methods of predicting the return besides assuming the historical. Yields and such. That's a comfort since you are not just blindly betting t...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Durability
Replies: 59
Views: 4986

Re: Light Bulb Durability

Even LEDs contain toxic elements: The Dark Side of LED Lightbulbs . (FWIW that piece seems a bit over the top, especially as it comes from Scientific Americans. They take LEDs to task because they contain copper. Well duh, guess how much more copper there is in the power lines to those LEDs, never ...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What smartphone plan do you use?- off contract
Replies: 100
Views: 6450

Re: What smartphone plan do you use?- off contract

You ought to be able to get that down to $40/month with AirVoice or H2O for example, but coverage is on the prepaid network which has a few gaps here and there. If you'd be happy with 500Mb you can get it down to $30. So the network is AT&T but the coverage isn't a drop in replacement? I've alw...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports
Replies: 115
Views: 6319

Re: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports

My memories of sports around that age are that I hated it, because I literally didn't know what I was doing. Didn't know the rules, couldn't play without making a fool of myself. It was embarrassing, not fun.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why not closed end mutual funds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1637

Re: why not closed end mutual funds?

I recall some people on the forum bought closed end funds at a deep discount (20% or more) during the 2008 financial crisis. That was a good move, but in general, I think they should be avoided.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years
Replies: 38
Views: 4850

Re: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 yea

Isn't the all-knowing efficient market the font of all investment wisdom, representing the collective judgment of all that is currently known? If it says the collective average investor owns 37% stocks, what makes you think you are wiser and therefore it is better to own more than that? According t...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jun 06, 2014 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 years
Replies: 38
Views: 4850

Re: Investors hold the lowest percentage of stocks in 50 yea

I would suggest that the AAII asset allocation survey is more meaningful. And it shows that the average stock allocation is above the long term average of 60% (not surprising since stocks have gained a lot recently and not everyone rebalances). It's more interesting to know what people somewhat like...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we have negative interest rates?
Replies: 33
Views: 3560

Re: Can we have negative interest rates?

In short, it's not going to happen. It did happen. It's happening right now. Before now the smallest interest rate move in the history of the european central bank was 0.25% (see http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html). The latest move was 0.1%. They can keep cutting rates...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we have negative interest rates?
Replies: 33
Views: 3560

Re: Can we have negative interest rates?

An arbitrarily negative central bank target rate isn't possible under the current system, because of the option to withdraw currency (with its fixed 0% yield). Currently there isn't any central bank that is even at zero. Japan is lowest, but they haven't been as low as zero for years. In short, it's...
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Last chance to sell Russian investments?
Replies: 2
Views: 332

Last chance to sell Russian investments?

I wonder what would happen to a U.S. investment in Russian stocks (or bonds for that matter) if serious economic sanctions were imposed (such as the sanctions on Iran). Any guess as to what the damage would be, -50%? -90%? -100%? As of 02/28/2014, Russia is 6.4% of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets and...
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 03, 2014 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought experiment: a "diversification" joke
Replies: 8
Views: 1095

Re: Thought experiment: a "diversification" joke

Occasionally someone will ask about holding 50% growth index and 50% value index for diversification. That is "funny" because those indexes are usually rebalanced to 50% market weight (so a 50/50 mix replicates the total market, at least if you rebalance in sync with the indexes).
by dumbmoney
Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW
Replies: 61
Views: 3742

Re: Windows XP to Linux Question with existing HW

How much free space do you have available? If you're only using, say, 10GB out of the 50GB, then you could shrink down the Windows partition to 20GB and use the remainder for linux. That way you could always go back to XP if you needed it for something.
by dumbmoney
Sun Mar 16, 2014 3:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED lights currently worth it personal financewise?
Replies: 55
Views: 2864

Re: LED lights currently worth it personal financewise?

The Crees have a 10 year warranty, which inspires confidence even if nobody knows if they will last. Definitely start buying them, but there's no sense in doing a mass conversion. Incandescents are good for little-used lights, and if a flourescent is working well I would leave it alone. And the pric...
by dumbmoney
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?
Replies: 126
Views: 6114

Re: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?

Buybacks are consistently larger than dividends now for U.S. stocks (something to keep in mind when comparing current dividend yield to the historical average). So one answer to the question is, they don't.

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