Search found 372 matches

by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 872

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

What costs $10 to trade on Schwab, costs $1 on others. My point was that you don't need to pay $10 with Schwab. That's the most expensive approach to trading through them. If you think "commission free" has truly no cost to customers, then why this: Schwab routes ~95% of all their clients...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 872

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

Schwab ranked second from dead last in "Costs". As someone who uses Scottrade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab for different brokerage accounts, it's my opinion that the Barron's rankings don't pertain to your typical long-term investor. The rankings are mostly based on factors are more importa...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 872

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

Schwab ranked second from dead last in "Costs". http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BJ044_Broker_G_20150306204020.jpg http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580502703510707706 Schwab, Ameritrade, Etrade, and Fidelity sell their client's order flow to high freq...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move all my Long Term NY Munis into Intermediate Term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1036

Re: Should I move all my Long Term NY Munis into Intermediate Term?

+1 The markets tend to be somewhat efficient here most of the time: NY fund returns will be lower than National Fund Returns due to the demand from NY investors. Said another way: Vanguard's National Muni Long SEC yield is 2.61% Vanguard's NY Muni Long SEC yield is 2.38% ... you would have to pay mo...
by dodonnell
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns
Replies: 87
Views: 4075

Re: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns

During World War II, [Nobel laureate, Ken] Arrow was assigned to a team of statisticians to produce long-range weather forecasts. After a time, Arrow and his team determined that their forecasts were not much better than pulling predictions out of a hat. They wrote their superiors, asking to be rel...
by dodonnell
Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Online chart of performance that includes reinvested divs and cap gains?
Replies: 2
Views: 233

Re: Online chart of performance that includes reinvested divs and cap gains?

http://www.stockcharts.com

Plots adjusted price or "Total Return" by default.

You can also plot just a price chart by prepending an underscore in front of the symbol

Example: BSV
http://schrts.co/LQ3fY4

Example: _BSV
http://schrts.co/8ee7XU
by dodonnell
Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2161

Re: Help buying LEAPs

CBOE index options LEAPS are trading out to Dec 14 2017. ... currently the highest strike available that has traded is: SPX Dec14'17 3000 Call Bid 3.00 Ask 3.30 Last 3.20 ... so it looks like you can go out 2.5 years and you are looking at ~10% spread. At the money is trading ~5% spread Dec'17. So i...
by dodonnell
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2861

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

ANSWER: 25% of Assets Mathematically, while the investor's assets could approach zero, he can technically never go broke. That would be true of any betting scheme using a % of assets less than 100%. The point of Kelly is that it maximizes the expected growth rate . Very good point ( emphasis added)
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling with Commodities
Replies: 15
Views: 1649

Re: Gambling with Commodities

You don't need to gamble with real money to learn about trading commodities.
You can open a Paper Trading account at IB, TradeStation, and use resources available to University students.

Student Trading Lab
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2861

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

EDIT: Disregard this post, cottonseed1 already explained how to get the answer in his post above. Yes. A skilled speculator, who has a positive expected return on every trade, will likely go broke over time, if he is not a skilled risk manager. He needs to be able to answer a question like this: Wh...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2161

Re: Help buying LEAPs

grok, Are you sure you are trading the correct product ? Bodie actually mentions at-the-money 3 year LEAPs or long term equity index options (on for example the S&P 500) as one alternative to consider. http://www.cboe.com/spxms/options/leaps/leapsspecifications.aspx LEAPS on the SPX or S&P50...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2861

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

What percent of assets , should a rational investor "bet" on a trade with a 50% chance of success, if they either lose their wager (-100% return) or they triple it (+200% return). Clearly the trade has an extraordinarily high expected return of +50%, but what is the optimum size of the wa...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2861

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

EDIT: Disregard this post, cottonseed1 already explained how to get the answer in his post above. Yes. A skilled speculator, who has a positive expected return on every trade, will likely go broke over time, if he is not a skilled risk manager. He needs to be able to answer a question like this: Wha...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4412

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

PJW, Respectfully, I used "strike price", not "market price". OP used "price" not "market price". Your fixation on "Market Price" is only relevant to your posts and is not addressing my post of "Strike Price". This is obfuscating my materia...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4412

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

So my mistake was that the Exchange's clearing firms technically perform the Strike Price adjustment for special dividends for them as their subcontractor and not the exchange themselves ? Is that all that i got wrong ? Edit: I changed my original erroneous post from "exchange" to "ex...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4412

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Exchanges do not implement a price drop on the ex-dividend date, traders and investors do. Ralph There are a few exceptions to this. While option's strike prices assume normal dividend flow during the time period, when a company declares an extraordinary dividend, the options exchange adjusts the s...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4412

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

No, they actually reduce the after tax total return, which is the only return investors should care about.* *not (as) applicable in tax deferred accounts That's a very misleading statement. What dbr wrote is correct. Yes a fund that does not pay dividends does defer the tax paid and that effectivel...
by dodonnell
Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4412

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Exchanges do not implement a price drop on the ex-dividend date, traders and investors do. Ralph There are a few exceptions to this. While option's strike prices assume normal dividend flow during the time period, when a company declares an extraordinary dividend, the options exchange 's clearing f...
by dodonnell
Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4412

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

No, they actually reduce the after tax total return, which is the only return investors should care about.*

*not (as) applicable in tax deferred accounts
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2733

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Executive summary: looks to me like it's all endpoint-dependent nonsense. I have to believe the latest book has updated results more recent than 25 years ago. Also, surprised to see Arithmetic returns instead of the lower CAGR or geometric returns required to determine the impact on a portfolio. Th...
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2733

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Investors who switch between bonds and stocks just on the months the NBER identifies (well after the fact) as the beginning and end of the recession gain a mere 1/2 percentage point return over the buy and hold investor My prior post referenced CalculatedRisk/Bill McBride using 1970 to present, sta...
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2733

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

According to Bill McBride's little exercise ... "magically" avoiding recessions would have lead to extraordinary out performance since 1970, or any time since. 12.7% vs 9.3% for buy and hold SP500. Timing the recession correctly always outperforms buy-and-hold. http://www.calculatedriskblo...
by dodonnell
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My funds are frozen
Replies: 25
Views: 4688

Re: My funds are frozen

They're refusing to accept my mailing address since it's a mailbox service company. Should they be accepting it? Every bank I deal with does. They are required to verify customers "physical address". Commercial mailboxes are fine for a mailing address for statements, etc., but they must a...
by dodonnell
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?
Replies: 19
Views: 2724

Re: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?

Good article on checking out Advisers. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/12/business/mutfund/before-the-advice-check-out-the-adviser.html Surprising to see them use Fidelity as a bad example: A former senior account executive at Fidelity, who left last year to join a small independent firm, said he was...
by dodonnell
Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about becoming a financial adviser...but I need some guidance.
Replies: 37
Views: 4755

NAPFA 2nd former Chairmen to go to jail

Take a look at these two professional organizations. If I ever need an adviser and I will eventually, I will be calling for adviser from one these two professional organizations. Set your goal to be a genuine fiduciary adviser that charges by the hour and AUM (depending on what people bring to the ...
by dodonnell
Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard adviser
Replies: 14
Views: 1665

Re: Vanguard adviser

Do Vanguard advisers ever recommend non-Vanguard products ?

(... like commodities or DFA funds ? )
by dodonnell
Tue May 26, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?
Replies: 19
Views: 2724

Re: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?

Before your meeting, you might want to understand how your Fidelity Adviser is compensated differently, for selling you types of different products.

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/representative-compensation.pdf
by dodonnell
Fri May 15, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds
Replies: 3
Views: 571

Re: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds

I skimmed the Fidelity SAI to see if i could glean their distribution policy ... It is not straight forward, they could be doing any number of things with that cash (instead of distributing it to shareholders) http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/35315/000003531512000301/main.htm#mmm431664
by dodonnell
Thu May 14, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds
Replies: 3
Views: 571

Re: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds

The 1 year Total Returns are within VGSIX: 12.53% FRXIX: 13.60% http://schrts.co/tuCJtC The 1 year Price Returns* are: VGSIX: 8.50% FRXIX: 10.61% http://schrts.co/CbH8ZR Fidelity's distributions to shareholders must be somewhat less than Vanguard's. Remember distributions can contain non-qualified d...
by dodonnell
Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Premium
Replies: 18
Views: 2069

Re: Fidelity Premium

Fidelity account holder here >250k. Vanguard, Schwab, and Interactive Brokers also. Interactive Brokers has professional level security. In addition to a multi-factor security device, you can also restrict the IP addresses for access. You can set up additional user/pswd and fob and control separate ...
by dodonnell
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accurate Market Data
Replies: 6
Views: 851

Re: Accurate Market Data

Prices should be adjusted on the "ex-dividend" date. Prior to the market open.
Which site is using the correct and published "ex-dividend" date ?

http://finance.zacks.com/mutual-fund-definition-ex-record-dates-9225.html
by dodonnell
Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accurate Market Data
Replies: 6
Views: 851

Re: Accurate Market Data

StockCharts seems to have updated WGROX already http://stockcharts.com/h-hd/?WGROX ... however, their adjusted price matches yahoo on FBIOX http://stockcharts.com/h-hd/?FBIOX I'm not sure if you can access historical data with a free account ? Historical Price Data: Note: Our price data is normally ...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA plan for 2015
Replies: 5
Views: 982

Re: HSA plan for 2015

Here are some of those other discussions: HSA Contribution and FICA taxes for S-Corp owner Tax laws for s-corps - HSA, worker's comp, and disability You can tailor the W2 tax treatment for your situation, for example, to include in Gross Income, but not in FICA, etc: QuickBooks also has an "HSA...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

@richard

Very good. thanx
Happy New Year.
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

..snip.. ... One the other hand, interest rates are usually a good proxy for risk, so if the national fund has a higher rate, it might be riskier. ... Modern Portfolio Theory contends that even if a portfolio of NY bonds is less risky then any other portfolio of any other individual state (ex. NY v...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA plan for 2015
Replies: 5
Views: 982

Re: HSA plan for 2015

In QuickBooks payroll:

Add a "Health Savings Account (HSA)" payroll item
Select "Tax tracking type" = "HSA Co. (Nontaxable)"

Your contributions will show up on paychecks and W2 correctly and avoid FICA and Federal taxes.
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

..snip.. NY LT tax exempt currently has the same SEC yield as TBM and has the same average duration. That makes it a relatively easy call for a taxable account, although it is less diversified than TBM. Vanguard Long Term Munis National LT tax exempt SEC yield = 2.35% NY LT tax exempt SEC yield = 2...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

@dodonnell, Those are additional reasons to hold equities in taxable (step-up and TIRA embedded tax). I don't really care about heirs other than my wife. Taxable accounts are joint, so there shouldn't be any tax issues or step-up for her. ..snip Joint accounts should receive at least a partial step...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

..snip.. I'm leaning against equities in a TIRA (v taxable) because the more they grow the more they increase RMDs. ..snip.. If a bequest to heirs (including to a spouse) is also a consideration, then Estate Tax and tax liabilities passed to heirs should be added to the equation to optimize tax loc...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

Doc, think we might be getting off track here. In reviewing the OP questions (emphasis added). What is the formula for the value of a stock in taxable paying dividends, given dividend yield , annual return, dividend tax rate , capital gains tax rate and years? ...snip... How do you incorporate payin...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

Doc, I remember playing with my father's Bell Labs issued slide rule which went hand in hand with his CRC Tables book. My slide rule for engineering undergrad was an HP-41C ;) The Formula simplified just for Dividends tax at Tdiv=15%, and a final liquidation Capital Gains rate of Tcg=20%, where Pdiv...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?



Confused, I don't see how this post addresses dividends or the OP question ?
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2545

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

There is an exact formula for calculating the after tax future value for your scenario. Essentially, it is a form of your equation, but modifications to both the annual return and capital gains tax rate need to be calculated. For example, lets use an SP500 index fund that generates a 7% annual total...
by dodonnell
Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:34 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy 239th Birthday, U.S. Marine Corps
Replies: 20
Views: 1673

Re: Happy Birthday, Marines!

Thank God for the Marines.

Happy Birthday
by dodonnell
Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3678

Re: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"

As I have pointed out many times it's simply a framing issue--when you get a dividend and don't reinvest it you just sold stock, the same way you would have sold shares if the company paid no dividend. you make a disinvestment in the company, the amount you have invested goes down by the same amoun...
by dodonnell
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Advice on MetLife VA Annuity
Replies: 17
Views: 1282

Re: Seeking Advice on MetLife VA Annuity

@futtee ..snip.. The real value of this type of annuity is that if we have a Down market, that your withdrawal amount actually goes up - the GWIB rider. Suggest you get Moshe Milevski, Life Annuity, An Optimum Product... , A more relevant Moshe Milevsky article for this situation is: What is a Guar...
by dodonnell
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Now what? - Lost check to IRS
Replies: 9
Views: 1296

Re: Now what? - Lost check to IRS

Fixed the link. My bad.

Your estimated tax payment is not late if it was mail on or before the due date.

EFTPS is very specific in directing payment to proper form. Whether you are filing 1040-ES 2014 or 941 Q3 2014 for a corporation.

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