Search found 353 matches

by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2560

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Executive summary: looks to me like it's all endpoint-dependent nonsense. I have to believe the latest book has updated results more recent than 25 years ago. Also, surprised to see Arithmetic returns instead of the lower CAGR or geometric returns required to determine the impact on a portfolio. Th...
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2560

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Investors who switch between bonds and stocks just on the months the NBER identifies (well after the fact) as the beginning and end of the recession gain a mere 1/2 percentage point return over the buy and hold investor My prior post referenced CalculatedRisk/Bill McBride using 1970 to present, sta...
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 2560

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

According to Bill McBride's little exercise ... "magically" avoiding recessions would have lead to extraordinary out performance since 1970, or any time since. 12.7% vs 9.3% for buy and hold SP500. Timing the recession correctly always outperforms buy-and-hold. http://www.calculatedriskblo...
by dodonnell
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My funds are frozen
Replies: 25
Views: 4649

Re: My funds are frozen

They're refusing to accept my mailing address since it's a mailbox service company. Should they be accepting it? Every bank I deal with does. They are required to verify customers "physical address". Commercial mailboxes are fine for a mailing address for statements, etc., but they must a...
by dodonnell
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?
Replies: 19
Views: 2681

Re: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?

Good article on checking out Advisers. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/12/business/mutfund/before-the-advice-check-out-the-adviser.html Surprising to see them use Fidelity as a bad example: A former senior account executive at Fidelity, who left last year to join a small independent firm, said he was...
by dodonnell
Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about becoming a financial adviser...but I need some guidance.
Replies: 37
Views: 4698

NAPFA 2nd former Chairmen to go to jail

Take a look at these two professional organizations. If I ever need an adviser and I will eventually, I will be calling for adviser from one these two professional organizations. Set your goal to be a genuine fiduciary adviser that charges by the hour and AUM (depending on what people bring to the ...
by dodonnell
Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard adviser
Replies: 14
Views: 1640

Re: Vanguard adviser

Do Vanguard advisers ever recommend non-Vanguard products ?

(... like commodities or DFA funds ? )
by dodonnell
Tue May 26, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?
Replies: 19
Views: 2681

Re: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?

Before your meeting, you might want to understand how your Fidelity Adviser is compensated differently, for selling you types of different products.

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/representative-compensation.pdf
by dodonnell
Fri May 15, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds
Replies: 3
Views: 546

Re: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds

I skimmed the Fidelity SAI to see if i could glean their distribution policy ... It is not straight forward, they could be doing any number of things with that cash (instead of distributing it to shareholders) http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/35315/000003531512000301/main.htm#mmm431664
by dodonnell
Thu May 14, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds
Replies: 3
Views: 546

Re: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds

The 1 year Total Returns are within VGSIX: 12.53% FRXIX: 13.60% http://schrts.co/tuCJtC The 1 year Price Returns* are: VGSIX: 8.50% FRXIX: 10.61% http://schrts.co/CbH8ZR Fidelity's distributions to shareholders must be somewhat less than Vanguard's. Remember distributions can contain non-qualified d...
by dodonnell
Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Premium
Replies: 18
Views: 2021

Re: Fidelity Premium

Fidelity account holder here >250k. Vanguard, Schwab, and Interactive Brokers also. Interactive Brokers has professional level security. In addition to a multi-factor security device, you can also restrict the IP addresses for access. You can set up additional user/pswd and fob and control separate ...
by dodonnell
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accurate Market Data
Replies: 6
Views: 845

Re: Accurate Market Data

Prices should be adjusted on the "ex-dividend" date. Prior to the market open.
Which site is using the correct and published "ex-dividend" date ?

http://finance.zacks.com/mutual-fund-definition-ex-record-dates-9225.html
by dodonnell
Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accurate Market Data
Replies: 6
Views: 845

Re: Accurate Market Data

StockCharts seems to have updated WGROX already http://stockcharts.com/h-hd/?WGROX ... however, their adjusted price matches yahoo on FBIOX http://stockcharts.com/h-hd/?FBIOX I'm not sure if you can access historical data with a free account ? Historical Price Data: Note: Our price data is normally ...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA plan for 2015
Replies: 5
Views: 974

Re: HSA plan for 2015

Here are some of those other discussions: HSA Contribution and FICA taxes for S-Corp owner Tax laws for s-corps - HSA, worker's comp, and disability You can tailor the W2 tax treatment for your situation, for example, to include in Gross Income, but not in FICA, etc: QuickBooks also has an "HSA...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

@richard

Very good. thanx
Happy New Year.
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

..snip.. ... One the other hand, interest rates are usually a good proxy for risk, so if the national fund has a higher rate, it might be riskier. ... Modern Portfolio Theory contends that even if a portfolio of NY bonds is less risky then any other portfolio of any other individual state (ex. NY v...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA plan for 2015
Replies: 5
Views: 974

Re: HSA plan for 2015

In QuickBooks payroll:

Add a "Health Savings Account (HSA)" payroll item
Select "Tax tracking type" = "HSA Co. (Nontaxable)"

Your contributions will show up on paychecks and W2 correctly and avoid FICA and Federal taxes.
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

..snip.. NY LT tax exempt currently has the same SEC yield as TBM and has the same average duration. That makes it a relatively easy call for a taxable account, although it is less diversified than TBM. Vanguard Long Term Munis National LT tax exempt SEC yield = 2.35% NY LT tax exempt SEC yield = 2...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

@dodonnell, Those are additional reasons to hold equities in taxable (step-up and TIRA embedded tax). I don't really care about heirs other than my wife. Taxable accounts are joint, so there shouldn't be any tax issues or step-up for her. ..snip Joint accounts should receive at least a partial step...
by dodonnell
Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

..snip.. I'm leaning against equities in a TIRA (v taxable) because the more they grow the more they increase RMDs. ..snip.. If a bequest to heirs (including to a spouse) is also a consideration, then Estate Tax and tax liabilities passed to heirs should be added to the equation to optimize tax loc...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

Doc, think we might be getting off track here. In reviewing the OP questions (emphasis added). What is the formula for the value of a stock in taxable paying dividends, given dividend yield , annual return, dividend tax rate , capital gains tax rate and years? ...snip... How do you incorporate payin...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

Doc, I remember playing with my father's Bell Labs issued slide rule which went hand in hand with his CRC Tables book. My slide rule for engineering undergrad was an HP-41C ;) The Formula simplified just for Dividends tax at Tdiv=15%, and a final liquidation Capital Gains rate of Tcg=20%, where Pdiv...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?



Confused, I don't see how this post addresses dividends or the OP question ?
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 28, 2014 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 36
Views: 2505

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

There is an exact formula for calculating the after tax future value for your scenario. Essentially, it is a form of your equation, but modifications to both the annual return and capital gains tax rate need to be calculated. For example, lets use an SP500 index fund that generates a 7% annual total...
by dodonnell
Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:34 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy 239th Birthday, U.S. Marine Corps
Replies: 20
Views: 1644

Re: Happy Birthday, Marines!

Thank God for the Marines.

Happy Birthday
by dodonnell
Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3567

Re: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"

As I have pointed out many times it's simply a framing issue--when you get a dividend and don't reinvest it you just sold stock, the same way you would have sold shares if the company paid no dividend. you make a disinvestment in the company, the amount you have invested goes down by the same amoun...
by dodonnell
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Advice on MetLife VA Annuity
Replies: 17
Views: 1261

Re: Seeking Advice on MetLife VA Annuity

@futtee ..snip.. The real value of this type of annuity is that if we have a Down market, that your withdrawal amount actually goes up - the GWIB rider. Suggest you get Moshe Milevski, Life Annuity, An Optimum Product... , A more relevant Moshe Milevsky article for this situation is: What is a Guar...
by dodonnell
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Now what? - Lost check to IRS
Replies: 9
Views: 1273

Re: Now what? - Lost check to IRS

Fixed the link. My bad.

Your estimated tax payment is not late if it was mail on or before the due date.

EFTPS is very specific in directing payment to proper form. Whether you are filing 1040-ES 2014 or 941 Q3 2014 for a corporation.
by dodonnell
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Now what? - Lost check to IRS
Replies: 9
Views: 1273

Re: Now what? - Lost check to IRS

I mailed my 2013 Tax Return with a paper check to the IRS on 4/15/2014. Certified Mail. They printed on the back of the check: my SSN, first 4 letters of my last name, the tax period 201312, and a date: 04192014. I assume this means they processed my check 4 days later on 4/19/2014. However, the pay...
by dodonnell
Sun Oct 12, 2014 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Advice [NYT article on "buying" investment advice]
Replies: 9
Views: 1056

Re: Investing Advice [NYT article on "buying" investment adv

Interesting article. There are some specific situations when brokers must act as fiduciaries — for example, when they collect a percentage of total assets to manage an investment account .. snip .. Confusing? Absolutely. Is this true? Someone charging a percentage of AUM must be a fiduciary? I was ...
by dodonnell
Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2486

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

As I never tire of posting: the long-term portfolio returns .. snip .. the higher returns, amigos! Gold was up about 4% in 2008 and had a CAGR of 14% from 1/1/2008 to 12/31/2010, so I would say that it did help in 2008. :moneybag Note: I'm not interested in commodities either, just gold. Yeh, gold ...
by dodonnell
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2486

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

thanx for the link to the great debate. Commodities sure looked good 10 years ago. They had ok returns over the prior 15 years, but look at those correlations with stocks and bonds. http://i60.tinypic.com/10hqddi.png If a professional money manager didn't have commodities in his global portfolio 10 ...
by dodonnell
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Math Question re: Annualized Total Return
Replies: 6
Views: 938

Re: Math Question re: Annualized Total Return

Very interesting posts. My take: 1. Daily returns are only compounded on trading days (252 days, not 365). 2. Fees are accrued daily, but compounded on each NAV update, which occurs only on trading days. 3. NAR is a realized annual return or a geometric daily return. It is not a daily return, annual...
by dodonnell
Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 12b-1 Fees
Replies: 13
Views: 783

Re: 12b-1 Fees

JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2050 C

The class used in your 401k most likely is very similar to this funds 12b-1 Fees of 0.75%.
by dodonnell
Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Callable municipal bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 490

Re: Callable municipal bonds

If their market price has been substantially above the "Call" price for the last few years, then they will most likely will be called. ... if their market price is below the "Call" price, then they most likely have credit problems, which means they cannot refinance and they won't...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity settles lawsuits over its own 401(k) plan
Replies: 5
Views: 603

Re: Fidelity settles lawsuits over its own 401(k) plan

$12M for 50k people is $240 per person. Also, Fidelity 401k participants will receive the " revenue sharing " payments from both the Fidelity mutual funds and the non-Fidelity mutual funds. These payments are in addition to the funds performance. These payments are usually hidden from the...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity settles lawsuits over its own 401(k) plan
Replies: 5
Views: 603

Fidelity settles lawsuits over its own 401(k) plan

http://money.cnn.com/2014/08/18/retirem ... -lawsuits/

If you are a current or former Fidelity employee, the good news is that you may gain access to Vanguard, and other competitor funds in your Fidelity 401k.
by dodonnell
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: commodity funds and currency risk
Replies: 8
Views: 695

Re: commodity funds and currency risk

... snip... the world prices commodities in dollars. When the USD falls, there is more demand because the commodity is relatively cheaper. The effect is not perfect. It is however particularly noticeable in oil. Another factor is on the supply side, when the USD falls the Saudis may feel compelled ...
by dodonnell
Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: commodity funds and currency risk
Replies: 8
Views: 695

Re: commodity funds and currency risk

dodonnell Only problem is that there are correlations that matter. When dollar falls commodity prices tend to rise, as I explained. That helps offset the long dollar position, and vice versa Larry Let me see if i can hone in on what you are explaining: Would my previous post answer be more valid, i...
by dodonnell
Mon Aug 18, 2014 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: commodity funds and currency risk
Replies: 8
Views: 695

Re: commodity funds and currency risk

I want to add a 5% allocation to a broad commodity basket to my portfolio, but I've ran into a snag: I don't think I understand the potentially involved currency risk (if any). The thing is: I am located in Finland, so my local currency is the euro. I have a good understanding of currency risk when...
by dodonnell
Sun Aug 17, 2014 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 3463

Re: CFA Results

Just passed Level II. Registered for Level III for June 2014. ... passed Level I this past December 2012. Just reading the CFA CBOK so far. Don't tell anybody, but I love this stuff. :wink: Bumped from July 2013: Found out that I passed Level 3 this past week. Putting together the application for m...
by dodonnell
Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor
Replies: 26
Views: 4585

Re: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor

leod wrote:very nice, i've been buying a few IBonds for the last five years with low rates. I wonder how long til those double in amount.


Try using the Rule of 72 ... and maybe 2.5% or 3% for long term inflation.
by dodonnell
Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor
Replies: 26
Views: 4585

Re: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor

..snip.. You might ask why the real growth rate is 3.10% and not the 3.00% fixed rate. ..snip #Cruncher, that is exactly what i was trying to figure out! You read my mind . These bonds would have done relatively fantastic during the Great Depression, due to the deflation. The expected return on an ...
by dodonnell
Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor
Replies: 26
Views: 4585

Re: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor

yes, well done.
... purchasing only a few years after they were introduced.
by dodonnell
Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor
Replies: 26
Views: 4585

Re: I-bonds have doubled !!! thanx mel/taylor

Greenspam & Allan,

Congrats!

Am i correct in calculating the total annualized return on your 13 year old I bonds at about 5.5% ?
by dodonnell
Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k rollover screw up, what to do
Replies: 10
Views: 734

Re: 401k rollover screw up, what to do

It's always good to read up on your legal rights: http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/publications/wyskapr.html For example, if an employer did not forward participants’ 401(k) contributions to the plan, they would have to pay back the contributions to the plan as well as any lost earnings, and return any profi...
by dodonnell
Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 44
Views: 5722

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

The composition reported in the last semiannual report doesn't look too much like the reference portfolio to me. ..snip.. Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF 1,799 197,926 WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund 1,739 88,741 WisdomTree International SmallCap Dividend Fund(a) 7,854 494,252 Total Equity Fund...

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