Search found 492 matches

by dnaumov
Thu May 14, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)
Replies: 63
Views: 6948

Re: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)

IB is a phenomenal broker, especially if you happen to live outside the US. I live in Finland and have an account with the german branch of Lynx, which is owned by IB. If I compare the single cheapest local finnish discount broker against IB/Lynx, Lynx offers trade commissions and margin rates at 1/...
by dnaumov
Tue May 12, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Investors Should Stop Trying to Beat The Market"
Replies: 16
Views: 2107

Re: "Why Investors Should Stop Trying to Beat The Market"

What is wrong with trying to outperform the S&P if that keeps you in the game come hell of high water? You may under-perform some but if you have a strategy and you stick to it in the end you probably will do better than most other investors. This is essentially what I am doing. I realized that...
by dnaumov
Mon May 04, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett interview on the "margin of safety"; considerations for T-A-A
Replies: 13
Views: 1817

Re: Buffett interview on the "margin of safety"; considerations for T-A-A

I am rather envious of private individual american investors because they have (at least it seems to me) a fantastic way to profit from the current interest rates: lock in a 30y mortgage at a stupidly low rate. In my country (Finland), practically all mortgages are variable rate for the entire durat...
by dnaumov
Sun Mar 15, 2015 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargument?
Replies: 70
Views: 5633

Re: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargum

In my view, the main benefit of a dividend strategy is psychological. When properly implemented (wide diversifications, etc), your income stream will wobble around a whole lot less than the total of the portfolio so you focus on the income stream as a whole, alone, it's a lot easier to trick yoursel...
by dnaumov
Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 3661

Re: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio

Any portfolio analysis that includes bonds is likely to draw complaints that we have just witnessed a massive 30-year bull market in bonds. Any analysis that includes gold is likely to draw similar complaints. Ditto for stocks. As they say, there is always a bull market SOMEWHERE, it's just next-to-...
by dnaumov
Sat Mar 14, 2015 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 3661

Re: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio

The PP is not a traditional "high growth" portfolio, it's a "don't get your head chopped off when the going gets wild" portfolio. The thing is, the "going gets wild" in 1 asset class or another a fair bit more often than you would think and the problem is that we don't ...
by dnaumov
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst case scenario
Replies: 16
Views: 2060

Re: Worst case scenario

These are the worst one-year performances of stock markets around the world since 1900, including an equal-weighted All-World portfolio (from the Dimson, Marsh and Staunton global database). Note these are real (inflation-adjusted) returns. The drops are dramatic, mostly due to world wars or energy...
by dnaumov
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Full Faith and Credit
Replies: 37
Views: 2897

Re: Full Faith and Credit

bberris wrote:The US cannot default unless it wants to. I don't know how much comfort you take in that, but to me it means the US will never default.

Are you going to ignore that the US already HAS, in the past, defaulted on it's obligations (see Liberty Bonds)?
by dnaumov
Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 17607

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

I don't care for the "U.S. exceptionalism" title or the nationalisitc/patriotic notions that might be implied by that being the argument, although I don't think that's necessarily bad either... But would anyone really argue that the U.S. markets aren't exceptional? With the massive liquid...
by dnaumov
Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross majority shareholder in his own fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1608

Re: Bill Gross majority shareholder in his own fund?

Tanelorn wrote:
AndrewHMeador wrote:If I lost $700 million right now I would be... distressed.

I think if most of us lost that much, it would a problem for our creditors and not so much for us.

As they say, if you owe a bank $1 million, you are in trouble - if you owe a bank $1 billion, the bank is in trouble :)
by dnaumov
Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross majority shareholder in his own fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1608

Re: Bill Gross majority shareholder in his own fund?

For a money manager, not "eating your own dog food" is seen as a huge red flag by investors. If the money manager himself doesn't believe in his process enough to put a significat part of person networth into the fund, why would potential investors?
by dnaumov
Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 17607

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

A lot of people seem stuck up on the idea of historical volatility being equal to risk for some reason
by dnaumov
Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 17607

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

As compelling as the case might be for global diversification, it's very difficult to "prove" with historical data that global diversification has helped US investors . Since the data are not compelling, we're left with opinions and one person's is as good as another's on this topic so we...
by dnaumov
Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 17607

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

The notion that adding international stocks to a US-only portfolio INCREASES risk instead of decreasing it is patently absurd. "I am in this one great stock and it's been going up for many decades, over a century, in fact. It's also been less volatile than most other stocks and has performed be...
by dnaumov
Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 17607

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

Every time "intenational investing" (from a US investor point of view) comes up, I always have the same argument. If you don't invest internationally, you are making a speculative country bet. At least admit that much to yourself. You are making a bet that the US will continue to be either...
by dnaumov
Sun Feb 08, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say about Individual Stocks vs. Mutual Funds
Replies: 56
Views: 5766

Re: What Experts Say about Individual Stocks vs. Mutual Fund

I cannot see the logic in allocating my money on the basis of cap weighting. I can see why the market as a whole allocates in this way but that is very different from what any given individual investor should do. Actually, there is a very simple and compelling argument for cap weighting: large comp...
by dnaumov
Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 14650

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

I read an interesting tweet from someone I follow who makes his living as a fulltime private microcap investor. He was replying to somebody who was saying it was outright impossible for a person with average income to become a millionaire by just investing his stashed away savings. His reply was am...
by dnaumov
Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 14650

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

I believe markets are "mostly efficient, most of the time". Given enough time, dedication, skill and possibly some luck, there is yet a hole one can drive a truck through.
by dnaumov
Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 14650

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

People seem to be ignoring that Buffett has evolved over the decades. When he was starting out, he totally KILLED the DOW (his benchmark at the time) by investing in classic Graham deep value stocks (net-nets, below NCAV, etc). We are not talking 5-10% outperformance, we are talking 30%+ outperforma...
by dnaumov
Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International - good for diversification, bad for returns?
Replies: 43
Views: 5115

Re: International - good for diversification, bad for return

The fact that large companies today operate globally does not remove individual country risk.
by dnaumov
Sat Jan 03, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International - good for diversification, bad for returns?
Replies: 43
Views: 5115

Re: International - good for diversification, bad for return

One thing worth noting is that VERY RARELY have the ex-US stocks been as relatively cheap compared to US stocks as they are right now. Second thing worth noting is that unless you own ex-US stocks AT LEAST at their market weight (meaning roughly half your equity allocation is foreign stocks), you ar...
by dnaumov
Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 78
Views: 8877

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

I might very well be the odd duck here, but I don't believe in reversion to the mean. At least, not in the way it's usually explained. History is full of examples where unexpected events have changed the course of history or development or whatever is being looked at with such an outsized impact as ...
by dnaumov
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 18186

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

I am obviously the odd bird here, but I think that the biggest benefit of PP is the fact that you can use margin debt to leverage your portfolio with significantly less risk compared to leveraging an all-stock, or even a 25/75 portfolio. I don't use PP, but if I did, I am pretty sure I could sleep w...
by dnaumov
Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good books about Warren Buffett?
Replies: 18
Views: 1227

Re: Good books about Warren Buffett?

Thanks for the suggestions, I ended up placing an order for "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist".
by dnaumov
Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good books about Warren Buffett?
Replies: 18
Views: 1227

Good books about Warren Buffett?

I have a friend who is very interested in business, but was not aware of Warren Buffett (we are not in/from the US) and after I told her, she got really curious. I've been thinking about what book about Buffett to recommend to her: what are my options besides Snowball (which seems a bit large)?
by dnaumov
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 66
Views: 5673

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

IBM is having a difficult time growing revenue and earnings. Buybacks can't hold up the stock price. And it seems likely that the money spent on buybacks would have been better spent on other investments than itself. They may well end up a great business case of when not to do buybacks. This is a c...
by dnaumov
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 233
Views: 33812

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

Another thing I learned from that thread is that it must take a lot of work to be an active investor in specific stocks. Lots of reading of SEC filings, tons of research about the yet-to-be-released iphone, etc. Maybe my laziness guided me to asset allocation... It is very time-involving indeed. I ...
by dnaumov
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 233
Views: 33812

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

People seem to have a rather variable definition of a "basket". If someone knows what he is doing and knows the stocks he owns as well as his children if not better, I wouldn't call someone whose portfolio consisted of 10 individual stocks crazy by any measure, but 1-2 is just plain stupid...
by dnaumov
Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5967

Re: International allocation

Where am I wrong, here? Not wrong, just some folks don't like adding that much risk for the diversification Int. stocks allow. I really don't think there is a right answer here. You have that completely backwards. You can't possibly have LESS risk by heavily tilting towards a single country. Unless...
by dnaumov
Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5967

Re: International allocation

Where am I wrong, here? Not wrong, just some folks don't like adding that much risk for the diversification Int. stocks allow. I really don't think there is a right answer here. You have that completely backwards. You can't possibly have LESS risk by heavily tilting towards a single country. Unless...
by dnaumov
Tue Aug 19, 2014 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 9425

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

I have actually progressed (or vise-versa, however you look at it) from indexing to individual stocks and within a couple of years of doing so I learned a pretty valuable lesson: I seem to be pretty decent at picking when and what to buy, but am utterly horrible at selling. I keep track of ALL indiv...
by dnaumov
Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: commodity funds and currency risk
Replies: 8
Views: 705

commodity funds and currency risk

I want to add a 5% allocation to a broad commodity basket to my portfolio, but I've ran into a snag: I don't think I understand the potentially involved currency risk (if any). The thing is: I am located in Finland, so my local currency is the euro. I have a good understanding of currency risk when ...
by dnaumov
Thu Aug 14, 2014 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would a passive investor use ETFs?
Replies: 60
Views: 4590

Re: Why would a passive investor use ETFs?

Because a wide selection of high-quality index mutual funds are not available in your country.
by dnaumov
Sat Jun 28, 2014 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoPro IPO
Replies: 30
Views: 3267

Re: GoPro IPO

My galaxy S4 camera is just fine... You mean tolerable. Good luck getting it to take photos/videos that are anywhere near the quality required for publishing in print or on a bluray disc. By spending time and tinkering with settings every single time your environment changes you might get a reasona...
by dnaumov
Sat Jun 28, 2014 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoPro IPO
Replies: 30
Views: 3267

Re: GoPro IPO

I don't see any moat either. I think they are smart to do an IPO right at the height of their popularity and growth. Their marketing strategy has been brilliant so far. I bet it won't be long before smart phones (with a special bracket and/or waterproof case as needed) can do everything GoPro can d...
by dnaumov
Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Dividend Yield on VXUS?
Replies: 7
Views: 1394

Re: High Dividend Yield on VXUS?

Angelus359 wrote:US stocks currently have a high price to earnings ratio, which drives % yield down

Re-read what the OP is actually asking.
by dnaumov
Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with the all the different prices for ETFs?
Replies: 9
Views: 792

Re: What's the deal with the all the different prices for ET

However, you have a larger issue - investing in leveraged ETFs. Quite simply, this is not a way to save for your retirement. Please see our wiki: Inverse and leveraged ETFs The Bogleheads investing philosophy is a long-term buy and hold approach which invests in the entire market using low-cost fun...
by dnaumov
Tue May 27, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use my margin to buy bonds?
Replies: 41
Views: 4817

Re: Should I use my margin to buy bonds?

jdilla1107 wrote:One year treasuries pay much less than 1.59%.

If you buy longer term you have interest rate risk.

You only have interest rate risk if you intend to sell instead of holding to maturity.
by dnaumov
Tue May 27, 2014 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Info [Investing in Cryptocurrencies]
Replies: 8
Views: 1325

Re: Bitcoin Info [Investing in Cryptocurrencies]

chaz wrote:You can't put a bitcoin in a wallet or purse. Just binary code.

Incorrect: http://www.wired.com/2014/01/casascius-back/
by dnaumov
Mon May 26, 2014 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Info [Investing in Cryptocurrencies]
Replies: 8
Views: 1325

Re: Bitcoin Info [Investing in Cryptocurrencies]

It is not investing, it is speculating. I agree with Buffett, no it was Charlie Munger come to think of it, ' it's rat poison '. That Munger comment actually had me disgusted for quite some time: sure it's rat poison... for people who have very large financial stakes in traditional banking and paym...
by dnaumov
Tue May 20, 2014 3:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ADR Mechanics
Replies: 18
Views: 2910

Re: ADR Mechanics

If you want to trade on foreign exchanges directly, have a look at Interactive Brokers, while they don't offer direct access to Russia, they do offer access to a lot of different exchanges around the globe. Many russian companies are listed on the London Stock Exchange and IB provides you with acces...
by dnaumov
Fri May 16, 2014 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?
Replies: 40
Views: 5967

Re: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?

I'd take long term deflation over a bull market any day. Make cash and bonds worth something. Really? Have you considered that long-term deflation can destroy a country's economy? In a serious deflationary period, people and businesses are incentivized to hold cash (as it may return more than any o...
by dnaumov
Thu May 15, 2014 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than large
Replies: 78
Views: 5235

Re: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than l

There is also an argument to be made that many (most?) large companies got large by doing things right, which says something about the underlying characteristic of the business.
by dnaumov
Wed May 14, 2014 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: for those interested in dividend strategies
Replies: 53
Views: 7406

Re: for those interested in dividend strategies

In the universe of non-index investing where one utilises stock screening and selection, I believe dividend strategies make a lot of sense as they vastly simplify the decision on when to sell a stock, reducing the odds of a behavioural mistake. There is also strong evidence that stocks of companies ...
by dnaumov
Fri May 09, 2014 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shrink
Replies: 41
Views: 4564

Re: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shri

Does a shrinking federal reserve balance sheet for 5 to 8 years have any consequences for stock and bond investors? Shrinking the balance sheet would have the effect of "taking away the punch bowl". No. Stopping the growth of the balance sheet would be akin to "taking away the punch ...
by dnaumov
Thu May 08, 2014 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard etf's dont reinvest dividends
Replies: 10
Views: 1496

Re: Vanguard etf's dont reinvest dividends

In fact, you have it BACKWARDS. Reinvested dividends create additional tax lots which complicate things. No, he doesn't have it backwards. In most european countries, by far, funds that automatically reinvest the dividends increase the fund NAV and don't force new shares onto their investors. Thus,...
by dnaumov
Thu May 08, 2014 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Investing Alert: Bitcoin and Other Virtual Currency
Replies: 10
Views: 1129

Re: SEC Investing Alert: Bitcoin and Other Virtual Currency

BigTom wrote:I thought bit coin was done after they lost 400 million . Through a hack or something . I wouldn't trust it .

If somebody broke into your house and stole your valuable posessions, would you "lose faith" in the valuable posessions you had?
by dnaumov
Thu May 08, 2014 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Investing Alert: Bitcoin and Other Virtual Currency
Replies: 10
Views: 1129

Re: SEC Investing Alert: Bitcoin and Other Virtual Currency

Bitcoin is a fantastic invention but I find it very jarring when people talk about "bitcoin investment opportunities and risks" (unless the talk is about investing in bitcoin-related companies). Bitcoin is a medium of exchange, a currency (no matter what central banks and taxation authorit...
by dnaumov
Tue May 06, 2014 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: accessing the profitability factor
Replies: 10
Views: 948

Re: accessing the profitability factor

It's much easier to wrap your head around the persistance of the value premium: you can't bid value stocks to the moon - a group of stocks becoming relatively overvalued automatically means there has to be another group that's undervalued in comparison.
by dnaumov
Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Risks of Global Stock Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 3418

Re: Long Term Risks of Global Stock Markets

As I own VT, I'd be really curious to sell a Total World All Cap entry in the examples above (and not GDP-weighted World Portfolio).

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