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Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

staythecourse wrote:Who cares what returns will be or end up?


You should care because you future lifestyle depends upon it. Kind of like saying "who cares if the oncoming storm is a mild blow or a category 4 hurricane". :idea:
by dkturner
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 5903

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

What are the expected/actual tax implications for holding Wellesley vs. the LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Fund (VSCGX) fund? If held in an IRA there is no tax difference. If held in a taxable account Wellesley is almost certain to result in a higher tax burden. The extent of that burden is diffe...
by dkturner
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 4751

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Let's check back in 10 years. Pays to remember that "nobody knows nothing." Jack's predictions aren't worth any more than anybody else's and nobody is ever right predicting stock market returns. More investment porn... So......you're saying Jack Bogle is a pornographer - and he's chosen v...
by dkturner
Tue Nov 18, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 5903

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

Does it meet your desired asset allocation? If Wellesley is too risky for him, he can pair it with cash, and if it too safe, he can pair with the Vanguard Wellington fund. +1 investor Small cap, international, Reits :?: John About 15% of Wellesley's equity holdings consist of international stocks (...
by dkturner
Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 4751

Re: Why would a European bother holding bonds in this climat

A Boglehead type European would presumably do the same as the homegrown version, namely invest his age in domestic bonds and avoid holding foreign bonds. What else could he do with the portion of his portfolio his IPS says he shouldn't allocate to equities?
by dkturner
Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would a European bother holding bonds in this climate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1493

Re: vtsgx

VTSGX was the Signal share class of Vanguard Total International Index fund, which are now defunct. I think all Signal class shares of funds were converted to Admiral shares. Check your account, do you actually now hold VTIAX instead? October 24 was the date when all of the Signal class shares were...
by dkturner
Fri Nov 07, 2014 5:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vtsgx [Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index, Signal share class]
Replies: 12
Views: 1191

Re: Should I stop tracking past performance?

The answer to your question may depend on how your assets are invested. If substantially all of your assets are invested in something like the classic Bogleheads three fund ("no brainer") portfolio you are getting market returns. On the other hand, if your portfolio has significant exposur...
by dkturner
Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I stop tracking past performance?
Replies: 36
Views: 2181

Re: My favorite Vanguard balanced fund

A tip of the hat to both Wellington and Wellesley Funds. Don't know how these "active" funds continue to perform so well. They are a bit higher cost than VG index funds, much less diversified and yet do a great job. VG Balanced Index fund does compete well with these funds with lower cost...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My favorite Vanguard balanced fund
Replies: 20
Views: 4166

Re: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?

Does anyone know if there is a minimum balance required for the sweep account? My prior understanding (which may have been incorrect?) is that you had to maintain a $3,000 Money Market balance to have a brokerage account. On the mutual fund side of the business that's true, but on the brokerage sid...
by dkturner
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 105
Views: 12129

Re: Buffett Has 100% Equities in his Pensions Funds

Offhand that sounds irresponsible to me. Taking such high risk with employee's retirement does not seem right, and like other companies, he will rely on the government to bale him out if it doesn't go in his favor. Don't think I would feel very good being in his retirement plan in 2008. Berkshire H...
by dkturner
Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Has 100% Equities in his Pensions Funds
Replies: 39
Views: 2778

Re: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin

pkcrafter wrote:If 10 year forecasts are reliable, why do they do them every year? In GMOs case, every quarter. :?

Paul


Because after one year it's only a nine year forecast. :idea:
by dkturner
Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin
Replies: 79
Views: 5663

Re: Is there an "upper limit" on Boglehead theory?

So here's my question to the masses - Is there a practical upper limit to the simplified Bogle methods? That is, do you think it's really practical to pitch the "three-fund ETF" portfolio to a person with $10m+ in investable assets? Or do you think that at some point, they need more than ...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 03, 2014 6:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an "upper limit" on Boglehead theory?
Replies: 58
Views: 4483

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

TJSI wrote: A 5% buyback does not result in an automatic 5% increase in share price.


True, and a 5% cash dividend does not result in an automatic 5% decrease in share price, but you can see where this is going.
by dkturner
Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4834

Re: TIPS & Rick Ferri

fwiw The BIGGEST advantage of TIPS IMO is that they allow you to earn the term premium without taking inflation risk Larry But, what happens to long dated TIPS when interest rates rise with no rise in the underlying inflation rate? Hint: in 2013 the CPI rose only 1.5% (vs a 1.7% increase the year b...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS & Rick Ferri
Replies: 28
Views: 5094

Re: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?

But if the employer fills up the employee IRA, then this makes it difficult to do any kind of Roth, without having to "convert" some of the money essentially from the IRA's. Backdoor Roth becomes a tax issue as well. fd Let me see if I've got this right. Your employer has some type of gro...
by dkturner
Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?
Replies: 11
Views: 866

Re: Can Active Fund Strategy Beat Vanilla Index Fund?

I will gladly look into the Mega-Cap and Prime Cap funds to park the rest of my non-retirement money into. Interesting that they weren't suggested by the VG website as Blue Chip alternatives. Last question: 1. Is it tax-terrible to put a value-fund into a taxable account? ! The original Vanguard Pr...
by dkturner
Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Active Fund Strategy Beat Vanilla Index Fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 1562

Re: Risk and the Trinity Study

If the Trinity Study is correct, then 100/0 or 75/25 stocks/bonds is best or ties for best in all 30-year scenarios: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/File:TrinityTable3.jpg Except the next 30 years are unknown. So, the best allocation for next "30-year scenarios" is that which: • We can kee...
by dkturner
Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and the Trinity Study
Replies: 33
Views: 1967

Re: Risk and the Trinity Study

If the Trinity Study is correct, then 100/0 or 75/25 stocks/bonds is best or ties for best in all 30-year scenarios: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/File:TrinityTable3.jpg This means that a lower stock allocation is either riskier or has the same risk. So, why do we think of lower stock allocations ...
by dkturner
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and the Trinity Study
Replies: 33
Views: 1967

Re: Barron's article: Don't Panic! (retirement news & theory

Dkturner....you said a more aggressive investor is likely to have a larger portfolio at the start of retirement.....depends upon my new favorite phrase...the luck of your sequence of returns. An aggressive investor approaching retirement should be willing to CONSIDER a little "valuation driven...
by dkturner
Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's article: Don't Panic! (retirement news & theory)
Replies: 28
Views: 3835

Re: Barron's article: Don't Panic! (retirement news & theory

Right, so all you have to do is sell right before a bear market. Why didn't I think of that? :oops: One can't possibly know when a bear market is about to start, but even the dullest among us can spot a market selling at multiples never, or rarely, experienced before. Probably wouldn't have alerted...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 22, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's article: Don't Panic! (retirement news & theory)
Replies: 28
Views: 3835

Re: Barron's article: Don't Panic! (retirement news & theory

I enjoy this article, especially the part that says: The impact isn't small. A retiree with a $1 million stock portfolio who began tapping her portfolio during a bear market would have less than a third as much after 20 years as someone who didn't experience a bear market until near the end, all ot...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's article: Don't Panic! (retirement news & theory)
Replies: 28
Views: 3835

Re: Vanguard SV/SG funds vs. CRSP indexes

Don't know how this affects your result but Vanguard has a history of switching indexes making long term statistical analysis problematic ... S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (formerly known as the S&P SmallCap 600/Barra Value Index) through May 16, 2003; MSCI US Small Cap Value Index through A...
by dkturner
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard SV/SG funds vs. CRSP indexes
Replies: 7
Views: 777

Re: The Case Against Mid Caps? (Say it ain't so!)

It ain't so :!:

DFA's "large-cap" funds look a lot more like mid-cap funds than large-cap funds. I found it interesting that in his latest book Bill Bernstein recommends slice and dicers use mid-cap index funds for their large-cap allocations.
by dkturner
Sat Sep 20, 2014 8:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against Mid Caps? (Say it ain't so!)
Replies: 23
Views: 2676

Re: AliBaba

Do you buy a company's stock just because you believe that it will go up in a short time period, or because you believe fundamentally that the company is good? If one of the largest companies on the planet isn't in any of the "total stock market" indices couldn't a committed total stock m...
by dkturner
Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 145
Views: 11662

Re: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life

accbh wrote:
pkcrafter wrote:At that time he's 75 with 325k.

75 with 650k, actually. The assumption is that stocks will always rebound after a 15-year period.


If we were in Japan rather than the U.S. would we be making an assumption like this for planning purposes?
by dkturner
Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life
Replies: 37
Views: 3803

Re: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index

You could use the average stock return as the benchmark. The idea being that the equal weight portfolio is the portfolio an investor should own if she really knew nothing (including knowing nothing about market cap). You should make sure that you are doing at least as well as the maximally clueless...
by dkturner
Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index
Replies: 28
Views: 2105

Re: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index

The market is a bad benchmark? The market IS the market. What else are you going to use as a benchmark? Since the worst investors on the planet can get total market returns (less a small reduction for administrative expenses) it makes sense to use total market indices as benchmarks for determining ...
by dkturner
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index
Replies: 28
Views: 2105

Re: What's in your tax advantage accounts?

Tax advantaged accounts are invested about 65% in taxable bonds and 35% in stocks.

Taxable accounts are invested about 15% in tax-exempt bonds and 85% in stocks.
by dkturner
Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's in your tax advantage accounts?
Replies: 56
Views: 4754

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

Ignore the article except to poke fun at it. First rebalancing INTO risky assets during a falling market is exactly what you want to do. Its the best part of rebalancing. You are buying low! Would you, with a straight face, make this recommendation to a room full of Japanese investors? :annoyed
by dkturner
Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14761

Re: "The Education of a Value Investor"

A "global" fund reflects *past* performance of global assets.... not the S&P 500. Are we EVER going to recognize that past data can be framed any which way we want? Were there any significant differences in the return of global stocks and U.S. Stocks during this roughly 17 year period...
by dkturner
Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Education of a Value Investor"
Replies: 26
Views: 2898

Re: "The Education of a Value Investor"

A "global" fund reflects *past* performance of global assets.... not the S&P 500. Are we EVER going to recognize that past data can be framed any which way we want? Were there any significant differences in the return of global stocks and U.S. Stocks during this roughly 17 year period?
by dkturner
Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Education of a Value Investor"
Replies: 26
Views: 2898

Re: Should I care about large cap value?

I was comparing the returns of U.S. large cap value compared to the S&P 500, and find that there's been little difference over the last 10-year and 15-year periods. The same seems to be true of EAFE large cap vs. EAFE LCV. Is there much of a value premium to be gained by holding LCV in a slice-...
by dkturner
Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I care about large cap value?
Replies: 17
Views: 1240

Re: Citi: Just use leverage for 10% bond returns

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-09/don-t-hate-credit-just-use-leverage-for-10-returns-says-citi.html Citibank has found an amazing solution for the problem of low interest rates in bonds: just use lots of leverage to get the return you want!! OK, so this was just an analyst report, I don't kn...
by dkturner
Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Citi: Just use leverage for 10% bond returns
Replies: 28
Views: 3320

Re: 50-50 Wellesley-Wellington or Total Bond-Total Stock

As I understand it Wellesley has a neutral 35/65 equity/fixed income allocation while Wellington has a neutral 65/35 equity/fixed income allocation. How would an investor who would like a neutral 50/50 equity/fixed income allocation, in the Wellesley/Wellington investment style, go about constructi...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50-50 Wellesley-Wellington or Total Bond-Total Stock
Replies: 68
Views: 5508

Re: 50-50 Wellesley-Wellington or Total Bond-Total Stock

Personally, I'd pick either Wellesley or Wellington and add either a target date fund that gets you to the equity allocation you want or a life strategy fund that does the same. They don't have to be 50/50. Target date fund offer a lot of diversification in several areas not in W&W or TSM. +1 A...
by dkturner
Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50-50 Wellesley-Wellington or Total Bond-Total Stock
Replies: 68
Views: 5508

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

#4 seems to be anti-boglehead. In a sense the herd is the total market (index). It MAY be anti-Boglehead, but it's true. I believe that the large contingent of slicers and dicers who follow this forum would take exception to your comment. Slicers and dicers invest differently and have generated sup...
by dkturner
Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2258

Re: invest only in vtsmx and total bond market index.

[color=#000080] Does John Bogle still recommend investing in the total stock market index fund and the total bond market index fund only Absolutely not![/u] [/i] (Anyone who thinks Jack's TSM/TBM recommendation hasn't changed hasn't been paying attention.) Jack now considers the Total Bond Market i...
by dkturner
Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: invest only in vtsmx and total bond market index.
Replies: 8
Views: 1533

Re: Slice n Dicers: How much have you outperformed?

For what its worth, I ran a quick calculation, and have come up with the following numbers. . . Annualized returns of The seven fund Coffeehouse Investor Portfolio thru 12/31/13 Forgive me, Bill... the earliest edition I can find at abebooks of The Coffeehouse Investor: How to Build Wealth, Ignore ...
by dkturner
Sun Aug 24, 2014 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice n Dicers: How much have you outperformed?
Replies: 20
Views: 2557

Re: Defining "Stay the Course"

I'm merely curious why it's ok to deviate from one's IPS if there is a change which impacts only the deviatee but not ok if there is some kind of change which impacts the community in general. I've never heard it discussed. No hidden agenda with me. You said why wouldn't a Boglehead go beyond rebal...
by dkturner
Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "Stay the Course"
Replies: 41
Views: 3824

Re: Defining "Stay the Course"

I'm merely curious why it's ok to deviate from one's IPS if there is a change which impacts only the deviatee but not ok if there is some kind of change which impacts the community in general. I've never heard it discussed. No hidden agenda with me. Because, if you change your asset allocation (red...
by dkturner
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "Stay the Course"
Replies: 41
Views: 3824

Re: Defining "Stay the Course"

... Why does a change only have to be about YOU before it's actionable? What about a change in circumstances (i.e. PE10 hits 50) which arguably effects everybody? Why does the change in circumstances have to be personal before a Boglehead gets a pass from the stay the course mantra? Just curious :c...
by dkturner
Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "Stay the Course"
Replies: 41
Views: 3824

Re: Defining "Stay the Course"

I am a pretty consistent Boglehead with a plan and am good at mainly sticking to it. But I just had a job-related life event that suddenly changed my risk profile. As a result, I moved my 4% allocation of High Yield bond fund to intermediate bonds. I know there has been a flow recently out of high ...
by dkturner
Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "Stay the Course"
Replies: 41
Views: 3824

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

grayfox wrote:
Maybe I split the difference and go 50/50. That sounds like a good wishy-washy solution.

:?: Which would you choose?


I'd go with 50/50 too. But then my favorite color is plaid.
by dkturner
Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 5276

Re: Market timing....Mark Hulbert

So to succeed at market timing, you need the perfect, enormous, one-time, never-to-be-repeated killing? Market timing on a smaller scale would probably be more like arbitrage, with repeated cycles of transactions. More like slowing losing your stake at the casino. :) Or, more like slowly generating...
by dkturner
Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing....Mark Hulbert
Replies: 7
Views: 1286

Re: Dilbert Creator: If everyone indexed...

In a world with only passive investors, there would be much less trading than there is now, but far from zero trading. Index funds generally have turnover of at least a few percent per year. However, at least for market-cap weighted index funds, that trading is not based on perceived value of that ...
by dkturner
Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilbert Creator: If everyone indexed...
Replies: 28
Views: 3355

Re: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?

One major difference with the Russell data is that the standard deviation of the returns for both large and small "value" stocks is lower than the SD for both large and small "growth" stocks. The CRSP data for 1927-1978 shows the the opposite SD result. This is undoubtedly relat...
by dkturner
Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?
Replies: 14
Views: 914

Re: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?

I had always been suspicious of the old data as well. My concerns were related to documenting the existence of the various "premiums", such as the "value" premium and small-cap premium. I satisfied myself that the old data was reliable in documenting the existence of both of the...
by dkturner
Mon Aug 04, 2014 6:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?
Replies: 14
Views: 914

Re: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?

I had always been suspicious of the old data as well. My concerns were related to documenting the existence of the various "premiums", such as the "value" premium and small-cap premium. I satisfied myself that the old data was reliable in documenting the existence of both of thes...
by dkturner
Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliability of stock data prior to 1939?
Replies: 14
Views: 914

Re: Dividend Growth Investing vs Index Funds

In a nutshell: * An index investor wouldn't pick VIG, we'd pick VTI (total stock market etf) at 0.05% fees. That's $250 not $650. * I haven't poked around enough to figure out if this is all taxable, but if so he's paying double the dividend taxes each year. That's an extra $1750. This is massively...
by dkturner
Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Growth Investing vs Index Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1397

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

Yes, but you sacrifice considerable return by insisting on wearing both a belt and suspenders. Actually you don't. Buy removing corporates and increasing treasuries you can reduce your total bond allocation and increase your equity allocation while maintaining the same "risk" in your port...
by dkturner
Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 7275
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