Search found 1000 matches

by dkturner
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.
Replies: 22
Views: 2764

Re: The Oft-Ignored Fact: Real stock returns were only 2.2% since 1870.

Using data from http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 Funny how the returns are so wildly different when one shifts the popular start point from 1972 or late 1920s to 1870. 2.2% above inflation. 100 * ln(2071.11/85.04) / (2015-1871) 4.2% before inflation 100 * ln(2028.18/4.44) / (2015-18...
by dkturner
Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1935
Views: 375869

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Looks like this is going to be a Really Bad Day. Not even close so far. Also on the horizon there is no meeting or announcement that could produce unexpected good news. In such situations, the stock market does not go up. Plus, whenever August follows a month with a blue moon we can expect unsettli...
by dkturner
Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends
Replies: 157
Views: 15491

Re: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends

Your retirement needs don't arbitrarily scale up with your income while working. That doesn't make any sense, unless you are using a model of extreme 100% hedonic adaptation. The guy making $300,000 doesn't need to spend $200,000 per year in retirement. That's excessive. He can easily downgrade his...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at dividend paying stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 5562

Re: Another look at dividend paying stocks

The firms value might go down but that still doesnt impact the income you are receiving - as long as the company has the cashflow to continue paying the dividend I am not sure it matters what the stock price or the PE is - there are stocks like JNJ that have paid dividends without missing a beat fo...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4976

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

Some people here prefer cap weight portfolios, others slice and dice. In an attempt to settle the debate once and for all, I want to let the data speak. I ran 3 simulations with Portfolio Visualizer. The details are here https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&In...
by dkturner
Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads
Replies: 49
Views: 4127

Re: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads

As many know, I follow Jack to the letter. Exactly which letter would that be? Do you follow to the letter what Jack says or do you follow what he actually does? Jack says lots of stuff, which changes from time to time, but as far as I'm aware he actually does only one thing. Personally I'm far mor...
by dkturner
Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How aggressive are you in Taxable?
Replies: 37
Views: 3219

Re: How aggressive are you in Taxable?

Very, for an investor my age (72). Since I'm now retired, and we are taking RMDs from our tax-deferred accounts, we have our tax-deferred accounts allocated about 35% equity and 65% fixed income. We have enough fixed income to cover the portion of our living expenses not funded with SS and pension i...
by dkturner
Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 113
Views: 12284

Re: Did you used to invest in TIPS?

Since inflation hasn't been a problem lately I sold all of my TIPS in the early part of 2008 and purchased intermediate term investment grade corporate bonds.
by dkturner
Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your state muni bond fund hold PR debt? My MN fund does
Replies: 5
Views: 773

Re: Does your state muni bond fund hold PR debt? My MN fund does

Something to check when you're selecting a muni bond fund. That is why we invest in "index" funds. Wouldn't a tax-exempt bond index fund hold Puerto Rico bonds if it followed one of the broadly based tax-exempt bond indices? Remember indexers will buy anything that's in an index - regardl...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 24, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 278
Views: 28721

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Age 72. 53% equity, 47% fixed income.
by dkturner
Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Class A and Class B shares - why do companies offer them?
Replies: 3
Views: 838

Re: Class A and Class B shares - why do companies offer them?

FitBit went live but if you thought you could buy a share to be able to influence the company with your vote - you just made a poor choice. Fitbit is offering Class A shares through the IPO, which have one vote per share. Class B shares are held by insiders and represent 98 percent of the voting po...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 15, 2015 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fraudulent Charge Debited to Schwab Account
Replies: 25
Views: 2740

Re: Fraudulent Charge Debited to Schwab Account

This is why I will not have a debit card. A credit card gives better protection. When something happens, you do not have to wait for an investigation to get reimbursed. With a credit card, it is a charge that you have not yet paid, and they simply credit your account. How did you manage to get an A...
by dkturner
Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is "beating the market a misnomer"?
Replies: 8
Views: 1066

Re: Is "beating the market a misnomer"?

Ok so hear my theory out. You often hear people brag about "beating the market". Let's assume this means they earned a higher return over some period of time than say the S&P 500 or the Total Market Index. Wrong. They did not beat anything. They simply earned a higher return by taking...
by dkturner
Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?
Replies: 84
Views: 8988

Re: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?

We aren't predicting anything. No risk, no return. Who knows what is going to happen, but by investing in the total world stock market and total bond market you should reduce the risk quite a bit. Predict is probably the wrong word. I get the sense that quite a few people here, not all of course, a...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 08, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7733

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

I have noticed that stocks tend to rise on Fridays and dip on Mondays. I don't know what this can be attributed to. Perhaps people get exuberant as the weekend draws near, and dejected when it ends? At any rate, I have been tracking the market for over 2 years now, and I have repeatedly noticed thi...
by dkturner
Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing risk during a market crash/correction.
Replies: 37
Views: 3580

Re: Increasing risk during a market crash/correction.

Chances are if you react rationally to a major market correction you will increase your risk as the equities in your portfolio decline in value. If you're into periodic rebalancing, and stick with the program, you will be moving money from fixed income to equities at a time when equities are "o...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four Vanguard International Equity Index changing/broadening indexes
Replies: 77
Views: 8274

Re: Four Vanguard International Equity Index changing/broadening indexes

jhfenton wrote:I'm not going to want 50% of my emerging markets exposure in China.


What's the point of total market style investing anyway? Overweighting and underweighting is much more satisfying, at least from an emotional perspective.
by dkturner
Sun May 31, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conventional Wisdom
Replies: 20
Views: 1737

Re: Conventional Wisdom

I am 50 years old and didn't start investing until I was 32. As it is today, the conventional wisdom was to put some in bonds and some in stocks. This question is for the older folks who remember investing before index funds. I remember several older relatives who would just own stocks of several c...
by dkturner
Sun May 31, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there bond experts that can make a difference?
Replies: 27
Views: 1943

Re: Are there bond experts that can make a difference?

Good points, Doc. Looks like some of the fundamentalists are having a little difficulty interpreting the numbers in the SPIVA report. Low numbers are bad news for index enthusists. High numbers are good news for index enthusists. Bonds are not equities. Some "fundamentalists" are not awar...
by dkturner
Sun May 31, 2015 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there bond experts that can make a difference?
Replies: 27
Views: 1943

Re: Are there bond experts that can make a difference?

SPIVA data on active vs. passive bond funds would suggest the answer is "no". ??? Report 11: Percentage of Fixed Income Funds Outperformed by Benchmarks Fund Category Comparison Index One-Year (%) Three-Year (%) Five-Year (%) Investment-Grade Long Funds Barclays Long Government/Credit 87....
by dkturner
Sun May 24, 2015 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 5341

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

The higher dividend strategy and the dividend growth strategies used to work pretty well. Dividends have always been an important component of the returns you get from stocks. Higher dividends were often a sign of value and dividend growth was a sign of quality. Jeremy Siegel wrote a book called &q...
by dkturner
Sat May 23, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 5341

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

On the other hand, if I don't trust management to be responsible reinvesting the money they would be using to pay the dividend( & thereby weaken the company's cash position), why should I trust them with any of my money? if you're into passive investing you will buy anything, regardless of its ...
by dkturner
Tue May 19, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Supreme Court rules in favor of 401k participants who object to high fees
Replies: 33
Views: 3952

Re: Supreme Court rules in favor of 401k participants who object to high fees

Well if revenue sharing will be a target for lawsuits, I would guess a majority of pension plans (defined contribution ) will lose lawsuits. I would imagine that our small business would simply close down our plan Why? transparency generates economic efficiency. We already contribute 20% of salary ...
by dkturner
Tue May 19, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Supreme Court rules in favor of 401k participants who object to high fees
Replies: 33
Views: 3952

Re: Supreme Court rules in favor of 401k participants who object to high fees

Does this mean as trustees, we cannot offer actively managed mutual funds? Or can we do so as long as we offer a menu of low cost index funds as well? We offer total stock, total bond and total international as well as vanguard REIT, TIPS and convertibles. We do not offer index funds for small cap ...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23916

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

When Bill Bernstein talks about investing in bonds he probably means short-term US Treasuries. Are those bonds risky? They were for my grandmother who lived as a widow (savings stopped when gramps died in 1970) from 1970-1991 and would only use short term "safe" fixed income investments. ...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 20, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23916

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

William Bernstein advises retirees and near-retirees to avoid investing in risky assets such as stocks, at least with money needed to provide an adequate income stream. Is anybody acting on this advice and what is your strategy? I am not acting on his advice. I view bonds as just as risky to my ret...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 17, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 181
Views: 23916

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

What happens if you've won the game and, ten years into retirement, the rules of the game change? Example: Social Security becomes means tested and the formula says you don't need the SS benefits you have relied on for a significant portion of your living expenses.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riddle Me This [Vanguard's bond target so far from Bogle's]
Replies: 10
Views: 1995

Re: Riddle Me This

Jack Bogle no longer controls what Vanguard recommends. I would not think that when a founder is no longer in control that the firm would continue on with the founder's line of thinking. Also, Mr. Bogle is not infallible. And neither are the folks working for Vanguard. Kahneman's Thinking, Fast &am...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 15781

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

My 30 year market forecast... they will be up. Attempt any sense of accuracy and you're kidding yourself. I thing the real value of these exercises in predicting future return of various asset classes is the relative returns, not the numerical guesses. About all that can be said about numerical ret...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 27, 2015 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Capitalism Distribution
Replies: 8
Views: 1366

Re: The Capitalism Distribution

I think this is one of the best arguments (besides the low cost thing) for owning a broad index fund like total stock market. From the article: 39% of stocks had a negative lifetime total return (2 out of every 5 stocks are a money losing investment) 18.5% of stocks lost at least 75% of their value...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 20, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 4557

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

I'm looking at an August 22, 1992 article (The zero option) I clipped from The Economist dealing with the impact of price stability on equity and bond returns. The article references research from Morgan Stanley covering the years 1871-1991 which breaks down price movements into deflation, price sta...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing Endowment Funds in a Bogleheaded Way
Replies: 3
Views: 601

Re: Managing Endowment Funds in a Bogleheaded Way

As a newish member of a non-profit's investment committee, I was recently surprised to get unanimous support for a change to a completely passive approach to managing our $10M endowment. As some of you know (and many would guess) these funds are almost always put in the hands of money management fi...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index
Replies: 9
Views: 781

Re: Long-term performance of value vs cap-weighted index

There is a chart of Wellington vs SP500 total return from 1/1979 to 10/2014 http://remonsy.com/daily/vanguard-etf-funds/vanguard-wellington-analyzed/ The main difference is that Wellington did not participate in the "bubble" from 1990 to 2001, but it was on par with the SP500 in mid 2001....
by dkturner
Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19854

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Each year I wrestle with the same question.... what to leave alone vs consolidate - with regard to bonds as a safety net. For years I have held Vanguard TIPS (VIPSX) - for the ever looming interest rate increase... along with the Vanguard LT Bond (VWESX) - good times corp lending... and the Total B...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Accounting & Calculating Returns Accurately
Replies: 20
Views: 650

Re: Tax Loss Accounting & Calculating Returns Accurately

Here's an example taken from my situation. I have a tax loss carryover which has lasted for years and will last for several more years. I can only deduct $3,000 per year from my taxable income, which reduces my total tax liability by about $1,000 so I have an additional $1,000 per year of "fou...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Accounting & Calculating Returns Accurately
Replies: 20
Views: 650

Re: Tax Loss Accounting & Calculating Returns Accurately

Is it possible that you are overthinking the tax loss issue? Here's an example taken from my situation. I have a tax loss carryover which has lasted for years and will last for several more years. I can only deduct $3,000 per year from my taxable income, which reduces my total tax liability by about...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 18, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does this 3x ETF outperform?
Replies: 2
Views: 632

Re: Why does this 3x ETF outperform?

MIDU is a 3x mid cap ETF (3x the S&P midcap 400). It has far outperformed it's 3x weighting since inception (beginning 2009). I can't figure it out. The index is up about 200% MIDU is up about 960% Way more than 3x. Or is my math wrong? http://i59.tinypic.com/dwosbp.jpg Based on the chart you p...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargument?
Replies: 70
Views: 5698

Re: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargum

One of the concerns often posted on this website is the fear that an investor will panic during a serious stock market downturn and sell out at the bottom, because (s)he learned, belatedly, that (s)he was too aggressively invested. An investor who is focused on living primarily on the dividends and ...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 14, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 2000 underperformance
Replies: 7
Views: 1298

Re: Russell 2000 underperformance

You can't have negative Alpha in an index fund. Alpha measures the portfolio manager's active management over the index. In index funds there is no active management. I just ran IWM's alpha against the Russell 2k and got a alpha of -.02%. IWM's expense ratio is -.02%. Apparently you weren't around ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond credit risk is unique from equity risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1438

Re: Bond credit risk is unique from equity risk

Robert T references this paper in the "Collective Thoughts" sticky: Default Risk - most of the premium is explained by same factors that influence equity returns "We show that expected default accounts for a surprisingly small fraction of the premium in corporate rates over treasurie...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 11, 2015 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26350

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Anyone know bond returns from 1940 to 1970? Before inflation went crazy? For the period 1940-1970 investment grade corporate bonds provided an annualized nominal return of 2.3% and Treasury bonds returned 1.9%. That's the "good" news. CPI averaged 3.4% from 1940-1970, "before inflati...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 26350

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Do we really think think the rate of return of sole-proprietorship local businesses can be all that different from that of public corporations? In the case of a local sole proprietorship probably not, but there is the issue of the "liquidity premium" with respect to private equity investm...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New DOW Component
Replies: 40
Views: 3191

Re: New DOW Component

The DJIA is, as its name suggests, just an "average" and a somewhat strange one. However, stocks are stocks and the DJIA really isn't all that bad a measure of "the stock market." Yes, and the total return of the DJIA , the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 are remarkably simila...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Fixed Income
Replies: 10
Views: 1251

Re: Fidelity Fixed Income

eastwayroad wrote: Recently had a 1st time conversation with a Fidelity fixed income specialist to discuss my current bond holdings and future moves as I approach retirement. Though he was by no means trying to sell me on anything specific, I sensed a bias against ETF's/Funds and towards individual...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ulysses Contract
Replies: 12
Views: 1471

Re: Ulysses Contract

Why would you want to prevent an investor from selling stocks if the stock market is going down? How would this have worked in late 1929?
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Fixed Income
Replies: 10
Views: 1251

Re: Fidelity Fixed Income

Recently had a 1st time conversation with a Fidelity fixed income specialist to discuss my current bond holdings and future moves as I approach retirement. Though he was by no means trying to sell me on anything specific, I sensed a bias against ETF's/Funds and towards individual corporate or muni ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation
Replies: 7
Views: 978

Re: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation

In my mind, there's a fine line between rulemaking and legislation. Obama gave a speech at AARP last week supporting the fiduciary requirement change. So far as I can tell, there is not yet a current proposed rule to comment on. I would appreciate knowing when and how to comment. Personally, I woul...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation
Replies: 7
Views: 978

Re: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation

Pending legislation is out of bounds here, so expect a lock. On the other hand, "Should I look for a fiduciary advisor" is not about pending legislation. Mike Piper has these thoughts: http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/should-financial-advisors-be-fiduciaries/ L. Actually I believe the OP ...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Increasing international equities
Replies: 70
Views: 6218

Re: Poll: Increasing international equities

Started reinvesting dividends from domestic stock holding into international holdings last year - started A little too early.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lessons Learned With Stocks Up 60% From the Precrash High"
Replies: 12
Views: 3722

Re: "Lessons Learned With Stocks Up 60% From the Precrash Hi

Its a good article, although if you do a little fiddling with measurement points, you find that the 60% increase also roughly applies if you step further back and measure from late spring early summer 2000. Over that time period, the annual return falls to about 3.3% or so. In any case, I'd like to...

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