Bogleheads.org

How can he make these predictions for the next decade, and in the same interview, say "I'm no good at market timing"? :shock: Jack is undoubtedly familiar with the rules set out in The Guru's Handbook: (1) If you predict the magnitude of an event, don't predict a date. (2) If you have to ...

On February 21, 2013 Roger Ibbotson made the following statement in reply to a question from a Morningstar interviewer: "Essentially, you still have this risk/return relationship that says stocks beat bonds or stocks beat Treasury bills. But within the category of stocks, just the reverse tends...

As recent retirees, I began cashing out our actively managed retirement portfolio 10/01/2012 to transition to a Bernstein/Bodie/etc. Liability Matching Portfolio (LMP) and a Risk Portfolio (RP) and (painfully) watched on the sidelines as equities took off in January and then "analysis paralysi...

To ensure a mini- mum of statistical robustness, we only looked at markets with more than 13 years of history .... A Global View of the Size Premium Monthly Data 1994-06-30 to 2013-02-28 ... ]THE VANISHING VALUE PREMIUM...Our study of global markets finds scant evidence of these anomalies in global...

Not to miss my chance to post a set of returns: :D Since 5/21/98: Small Value: 7.52% Small Growth 7.63% Since 11/2/92: Large Value: 8.76% Large Growth; 8.34% For most of us here who are VG investors, these are the returns we actually got. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/vanguard/FundsTableVi...

In further support of Rick's point about indexing being active management, has anyone ever noticed the following excerpt from the prospectus for Vanguard's bond index funds? "Each Fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in bonds held in its target index. Up to 20% of each Fund’s assets may ...

I often see people mention Wellington and Wellesley Income as examples of "good" active management, and compare them to the Vanguard Balanced Index. But they are just an example of value investing and taking TERM and CREDIT risk in bonds. If we compare 65/35 and 35/65 blends of Russell 10...

I wrote the book, The Power of Passive Investing , so you’d expect me to be the last person to say there’s no such thing as passive investing. It’s true. Passive investing in its purest form doesn’t exist. Only lesser degrees of active management exist. Passive investors shouldn’t let this get in t...

Rodc, Very impressive post and well thought out. Looks like you have definitively proven the superiority of slice & dice over the three-fund portfolio. But for me, I can't handle a lot of funds, so I'm sticking with my three-fund portfolio (50% Total Bond, 35% Total US, 15% Total International)...

Good Morning, Printing forms to take to tax guy soon. Form 1099-R from Vanguard lists $10,000.49 under taxable amount. I did a backdoor Roth IRA (from non-deductible tIRA to ROTH) in 2012 (as well as several years previously) We/I have NO OTHER IRAs at all.....(other than previous backdoor Roths) W...

Sorry, I still think it's all performance chasing during a multi-decade period of falling interest rates, poor large growth performance the last decade, and a couple of severe market declines where the bonds in both funds limited losses. Bogus criticism alert! (1) A multi-decade period of falling i...

I'm reading over this fascinating discussion that took place from 2007-2011. Is there any new research that would disagree with these results in the OP The primary results are that: 1) Slice and dice has fairly consistently provided a risk/volatility adjusted benefit. 2) Any two vaguely similar sli...

Vanguard Capital Value Fund does not have Admiral shares. Vanguard Convertible Securities Fund does not have Admiral shares. Vanguard Diversified Equity Fund does not have Admiral shares. [I stopped in the Ds.] Why does the Balanced Index Fund have Admiral shares and the above mentioned funds do no...

It's really not an apples-to-apples comparison. Both of those funds invest in value stocks and corporate bonds. They also own foreign stocks. Not that Wellington/Wellesley aren't fine funds, of course, but they don't directly compare with the funds you mentioned. And, to further complicate matters,...

Rick, Does this mean you are abandoning value tilting? Brad Isn't there a considerable amount of evidence that, historically, a value tilt has resulted in higher equity total returns? Didn't Albert Einstein say "things should me made as simple as possible, but not more so"? Well, I consid...

baw703916 wrote:Rick,

Does this mean you are abandoning value tilting?

Brad

Isn't there a considerable amount of evidence that, historically, a value tilt has resulted in higher equity total returns?

Didn't Albert Einstein say "things should me made as simple as possible, but not more so"?

I moved my brokerage account to VG in 2011, well after most of my positions were established. Thus VG doesn't have cost basis details of my account. Is there a way for me to enter the information into the account so that VG can track my gains and properly report them when I sell? The last time I ch...

Sad that so many, otherwise intelligent people, can make financial asses out of themselves.

Rick Ferri wrote:I thought this article by Allan Roth was well researched and fairly presented:

Ric Edelman again accuses Vanguard of hiding fees

IMO, it just ain't so.

Rick Ferri

Who is Ric Edelman, and why would anyone who doesn't already know care?

Yet I feel like passive investing often assumes that we don't have any knowledge whatsoever about the markets. Is there room for a middle ground? I don't know much, but I do know a smidge more than zero. Not many arrive at the passive index approach without learning expensive market/investing lesso...

Mel in a furious debate with himself. Who will win? :D Mel in this thread. The bonds you buy over the next 10 years will not be used in years 20-30 of your retirement as you stated. Rather they would be used in years 1-10 of your retirement. Mel in the article. Since EE Savings Bonds are guaranteed...

eric You happened to choose periods that both began with exceptionally high ERPs ex ante. The valuations were very low, very low P/Es which mean high expected returns. You have to consider that as well. That certainly is not true today. Depending on how you look at things: If you use current valuat...

As you move of up the "fund complexity" ladder from "long-only" through "market neutral" and into fixed income and ultimately derivatives (like commodity futures or stock options), your options for index investing go down and the potential benefits of active management...

The problem is with the index not the fund. As Landy points out the average intermediate term bond fund manager does not have a portfolio that look like the BarCap Agg Index. The index has more Treasury and Agency weighting than the average intermediate fund. Doc, if there's a problem with the Barc...

It has worked pretty well for me in my tax deferred account over the last 18 years. But so has the passive investing in my taxable account. Edit: I use an actively managed tax-exempt bond fund in my taxable account because, when I originally purchased it, there were no passively managed alternatives...

House Blend, I presume that if you use specific ID on the bond fund, you can circumvent the 6-month penalty? Or is it like wash sales that any purchase in the past 6 months restarts the clock? Specific ID doesn't circumvent the penalty, but you can always choose to avoid selling any shares bought i...

Before reading Taylor's post, I read the Vanguard post and found it interesting, especially the tagline. But the hardest thing which is more trickier than it sounds is calculating your own rate of return. I can't count on getting returns that match the numbers for any period of time in question. It...

After the stock market hits a 52-week high, the compound annual gain over the next year is 9.6%. That is a phenomenal outperformance over the long-term "buy and hold" return, which was 5.6% a year. Is it valid to compare a 1-year return to a long-term return without counting dividends ? -...

Before reading Taylor's post, I read the Vanguard post and found it interesting, especially the tagline. But the hardest thing which is more trickier than it sounds is calculating your own rate of return. I can't count on getting returns that match the numbers for any period of time in question. It...

I have a retirement account (457b) that offers a Fixed Contract Fund with a yield of 3.50%. Would this fund be a good substitute for a bond fund such as DODIX? I believe a safe (?) security currently yielding 3.50% is a very good substitute for a bond fund. The fact that your fixed income security ...

Call_Me_Op wrote:Is cash included in "bonds?"

Maybe, maybe not.

There is something to be said for substituting the term "fixed income" for "bonds".

I guess WalMart isn't entitled to charge for its services.

Seriously? As a shareholder you have two choices - one hire a new set of directors that will vote the way you want them to including renegotiating fees or two; move your money elsewhere. Otherwise, this is just another form of frivolous waste of the court and peoples time. :oops: Unless the plainti...

Munir wrote:Can the Intermediate Investment Grade Bond fund (VFIDX) serve as a substitute to VICBX?

Depends on your preferences. VFIDX is (a) actively managed, (b) has a shorter average duration, and (c) invests in higher quality bonds. Vanguard exchange traded fund VCIT is identical in composition to VICBX.

Came accross this September Reuters interview with John Bogle. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/11/us-column-taylor-bogle-idUSBRE88A0LI20120911 What I found interesting is the allocation of the assets in his taxable and retirement accounts. His tax deferred account is invested 50/50 common sto...

The concept of human capital is bogus, because you do not own your job. It's as simple as that. But each of us does own himself, his skills, his abilities, his work preferences, his work intentions, and his knowledge (except knowledge covered by a non-disclosure agreement). I think those are the es...

Here's a clue for knowing when people are just making stuff up -- using four significant digits to make financial projections over a 60 year period. In this case 16.67% -- really. Nothing nefarious here. The author is more likely just showing his sense of humor. Question: How can you tell that an e...

The subject is the "financial worth" of human capital [presumably] in creating worth (value to a portfolio). Thus, it is only worth as much as you don't spend. There is really not much more to this discussion, afaic. Not necessarily. if I'm a physician... dkturner, whatever you do for a l...

The subject is the "financial worth" of human capital [presumably] in creating worth (value to a portfolio). Thus, it is only worth as much as you don't spend. There is really not much more to this discussion, afaic. Not necessarily. if I'm a physician I can "lease" my human cap...

It's hard to measure human capital in my opinion.... Human capital IS hard to measure - but that doesn't mean it has no value.... Its value is impacted by the "expenses" in your personal Income Statement. 1. Lets see, I make $10,000 from working today and spend $10,000, in 10 years I will...

It's hard to measure human capital in my opinion. It's actually incredibly hard to measure the stability of any given job, or even of ones ability to continue to do a job. If someone would have asked me last June how long I would be physically able to work as a police officer, I would of said anoth...

Taylor Larimore wrote:
When we are out of step in the parade, it's probably worthwhile to reconsider what we are doing.

Look, ma, the're all out of step except me!

The concept of human capital is bogus, because you do not own your job. It's as simple as that. If you do not agree, please tell me where I can look up the mean and standard deviation of the salary of Windows programmers over the next thirty years? You can look it up in the same place you look up t...

If you invest in the Total Stock Market Index you will benefit since you got 20% premium on Heinz and if Berkshire can juice up Heinz after, you will benefit again. Given that both Heinz and Berkshire are in the Total Stock Market, you are just shifting money from one pocket to the other. The premi...

hsv_climber wrote:One more thing about 401k... Let say a person A goes from job to job to job every year while maxing out his 401K contribution. Fidelity will most likely show him at $17K, since other accounts would be Rollover IRAs.

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Or in a half dozen other 401(k) plans scattered around the country.

I'm pretty close to these guys so I don't want to comment too much... But while they screwed the pooch with structured credit during the crisis their AAA ratings have been accurate (behaved as expected) well over 99% of the time. I forget the exact number, it may even be over 99.9%. Yeah, they mess...

Here's what I said. What use is SEC yield if the fund does not hold the bonds to maturity? For example an intermediate fund will sell bonds when their maturity gets too short. Maybe SEC yield systematically underestimates the return of such a fund. Is that right? I don't see where the speculation i...

Vinny: But your honor, my clients didn't do anything. Judge Haller: Once again, the communication process is broken down. It appears to me that you want to skip the arraignment process, go directly to trial, skip that, and get a dismissal. Well, I'm not about to revamp the entire judicial process j...

FWIW, Morningstar puts the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index fund VBILX in the right-most column, too: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=VBILX&region=USA&culture=en-us The hell with Wellesley . . . now I'm wondering how you can "cut and paste" from M*. (1) Slowl...

Taylor Larimore wrote:Browser:

This is John Bogle's opinion (in a 2002 speech I heard him give):

The Telltale Chart

Best wishes
Taylor

Taylor, is it ever possible to have an intelligent discussion about a financial research paper without someone dragging Jack Bogle's opinion (not research) into it?