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Re: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investi

Kenneth French, a professor of Finance at Dartmouth College, has a website which contains an abundance of historical information (going back to 1928) about the relationship between dividend levels and total stock returns. FWIW for the period 1928-2013 his data indicates that the annualized return o...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investing
Replies: 26
Views: 1951

Re: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investi

Kenneth French, a professor of Finance at Dartmouth College, has a website which contains an abundance of historical information (going back to 1928) about the relationship between dividend levels and total stock returns. FWIW for the period 1928-2013 his data indicates that the annualized return of...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please debunk this CNN Money article on dividend investing
Replies: 26
Views: 1951

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

If the tilt isn't small value or REITs then what if any evidence is there for the tilt? I began my tilting experiment, with my rollover IRA, in the fall of 1999 (thank you Larry Swedroe!) using the Vanguard Equity Income Fund, which was my choice instead of the Vanguard Value index Fund - a smart c...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8377

Re: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" pa

I guess you could try clicking on the link I provided -- although this would be violation of the common practice of never clicking on links provided by posters. :D If value stocks are the least "overvalued" of equities compared to historical averages why would one be concerned about being...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?
Replies: 12
Views: 892

Re: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" pa

Comment by Burten Makiel about smart beta strategies caught my attention: Nothing works irrespective of valuation , and I'm not sure that the small-cap risk is one I really want to take now. That prompted me to have a look at P/B valuation levels and find that the current P/B for small cap value st...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?
Replies: 12
Views: 892

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I feel tilting is a hidden form of market timing. There likely is some evidence for small and maybe REITs. Nobody here likes to admit they market time but you have to believe that some how you can predict what to tilt to and when to tilt to some other direction. Most of the advice from the serial t...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8377

Re: Bogle on CNBC 12-16-2014: 100% USA squity

OK, great now I am more confused. I have $250k in the process of being transferred in to Vanguard right now. I was going to invest the the strategic conservative fund. With this current market am I better off holding off, maybe putting it into money market or cd's for a while? I am 59, disabled and...
by dkturner
Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on CNBC 12-16-2014: 100% USA squity
Replies: 35
Views: 3630

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

If you decide that maybe you're willing to accept a lower probability of having your portfolio make it to your 95th birthday, there is the sticky issue of possibly winning the longevity lottery, unlikely as that may be. It's not as unlikely as it seems. I don't count on winning a lottery, including...
by dkturner
Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9565

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I would rather eat my birthday cake than dog food at 95. Having children also makes me feel easy, knowing that someone from my family can have the money if I do not celebrate my 95th birthday. Are you sure you'll know the difference between cake and dog food when you're 95 -- or that you'll even ca...
by dkturner
Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9565

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

There is another thread going that the market spends 78% of the time off the market highs. That basically refutes your assumption that the market has a higher chance of going up than going down. It's based on a nutty paper. It's not the percentage of time that the market isn't at all time high that...
by dkturner
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 91
Views: 5881

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

What you're missing is the experiencing of living through the 2007-2009 bear market with serious money 100% invested in equities. Had you actually experienced the resulting 55% loss and said: "what the hell - it's only a paper loss, I'll make it back" then you're one of the lucky few who h...
by dkturner
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 91
Views: 5881

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

Tilting doesn't work every year but it has consistently worked for me over the last 3, 5, 10 and 15 year periods. I began my tilting experiment in late 1999 (thank you Larry Swedroe!). The important thing to remember is that tilting works best when there are big differences in valuation metrics amon...
by dkturner
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8377

Re: You folks think the big one is coming?

You can't time the market. I don't think the OP necessarily wants to time the market, he only asked if a crash is coming. I'd like to know too, if only out of curiosity. The answer is, of course a crash is coming. We don't know whether it has already started or if we won't see The Big One for many ...
by dkturner
Sat Dec 13, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5672

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

people aren't going to have perfectly level real income during retirement. That is neither possible nor desirable. I can certainly understand why it's not possible to have perfectly level real income during retirement, but I don't see why it would be undesirable. I always thought the ultimate retir...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2185

Re: Retirees: Withdrawals by time and amount

Out of a concern for my wife's future peace of mind I started taking the RMDs from my rollover IRA monthly when I turned 71. I also withdraw proportionally from both stocks and bonds (easy because our IRAs currently consists entirely of shares of the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund). Probably not the...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Withdrawals by time and amount
Replies: 36
Views: 3416

Re: Leverage and P/e10

Low levels of leverage actually reduce long term risk. I assume you mean that if over a long time horizon equities have higher expected returns, leveraged equity exposure has an even higher expected return. The downside of this type of thinking is that the long term is nothing more than a series of...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 11, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage and P/e10
Replies: 35
Views: 2383

Re: 'Might Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change

Over this 40 year period the equity portfolio with a 25% slice of emerging markets more than doubles the total portfolio balance of the pure U.S.” 25% of your portfolio in emerging markets? :shock: You're correct of course in your concern. But, in an interesting aside, in comments in prior years Mr...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4163

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

baw703916 wrote:My opinion about tilting is that we talk about it waaaay too much on this board.


As a diehard tilter I agree with you 100%. Some of the Bozos still don't understand tilting - let's keep it that way! 8-)
by dkturner
Wed Dec 10, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8377

Re: Withholding of Taxes on MRDs

Vanguard will withhold whatever percentage you wish from an RMD distribution. I have elected everything from nothing to 100%. The option will come up when you request a distribution. I don't believe they will withhold state income tax. Gill Thank you. Some states require state income tax withholdin...
by dkturner
Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withholding of Taxes on MRDs
Replies: 8
Views: 583

Re: Bogle on the past and future of investing

[quote="cfs"]I like this. [i]These big global issues are challenges and risky for investors, but we really have no choice—I have no choice. I'm not heading for the hills. I have always been very conservative with my investments. Right now, counting all my different kinds of accounts, I am ...
by dkturner
Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on the past and future of investing
Replies: 15
Views: 2155

Re: Stock Buybacks???

DVMResident wrote:Buying back stock pushes the price up. People issuing the buyback have a lot to gain from high prices.


Much like us outside investors - don't we "have a lot to gain from high prices" as well. :?:
by dkturner
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks???
Replies: 9
Views: 733

Re: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?

It also gives three decades for Vanguard to change the composition and the glide slope of the retirement funds. Since these funds were launched, about ten years ago, they've made significant changes in composition twice and a change in the glide slope once. Although in theory the stock allocation i...
by dkturner
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?
Replies: 39
Views: 2696

Re: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?

It also gives three decades for Vanguard to change the composition and the glide slope of the retirement funds. Since these funds were launched, about ten years ago, they've made significant changes in composition twice and a change in the glide slope once. Although in theory the stock allocation i...
by dkturner
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do target date funds get so bond heavy?
Replies: 39
Views: 2696

Re: TIPs, Total Bond Market, or Both?

abuss368 wrote:It was not that long ago that TIPS were highly recommended.


[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by dkturner
Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs, Total Bond Market, or Both?
Replies: 35
Views: 3397

Re: How do you rebalance?

I'm looking for a statement for my IPS, mostly for my wife Would a statement like this work? "Do NOT rebalance until the allocation is over 10% off and never let an allocation get over 15% off (or 5% & 10%). When rebalancing it is only necessary to get the allocation within +/- 5 (2%)% of ...
by dkturner
Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you rebalance?
Replies: 40
Views: 3145

Re: TIPs, Total Bond Market, or Both?

None of the above. Either use the Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund or, if you want to go for maximum quality and take maximum advantage of the downside protections bonds can give you, Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund.
by dkturner
Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPs, Total Bond Market, or Both?
Replies: 35
Views: 3397

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

Unfortunately we only have about 45 years of accurate historical data (considerably shorter for emerging markets) on the performance of stock markets outside of the U.S. The results are not encouraging. At best a rebalanced combination of U.S. And international stock indices might show a small benef...
by dkturner
Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11288

Re: How can an Total US Index be improved?

You want to hold total market, but avoid less desirable sectors? First problem, who decides what those less desirable sectors are? Second problem, it would not be a total stock index if you removed certain sectors. (1) Isn't this sort of the approach used by Dimensional Fund Advisors? Last time I c...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can an Total US Index be improved?
Replies: 33
Views: 1920

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting and Capital Gains

For instance, suppose one is retired and has no other income except for realized capital gains. It makes sense to sell ALL losers and realize the loss even if they are enormous. The net realized [carryover] loss can be used for years and years to come to offset any realized capital gains from selli...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting and Capital Gains
Replies: 20
Views: 1182

Re: What % of your fixed-income is TIPs?

I eliminated all of my TIPS between late 2008 and early 2009. I see no reason to reacquire them until/unless inflation actually rears its ugly head again. I'm perfectly content with nominal bonds as long as inflation remains low. Also, TIPS tend to also get cheaper when inflation expectations rise....
by dkturner
Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your fixed-income is TIPs?
Replies: 71
Views: 3500

Re: European underperformance - here to stay?

The underperformance of European stocks probably will end shortly after the last guru pontificates that European stocks are dead. :wink:
by dkturner
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: European underperformance - here to stay?
Replies: 32
Views: 2361

Re: Theory on eligibility to upgrade to Vanguard Brokerage a

It's a tiny issue but it is annoying all out of proportion to its size, both because it gives you the impression that Vanguard is making it hard to buy their own funds, and also because this issue does not seem to exist elsewhere. I suspect that it's a "legal" issue. Each Vanguard fund is...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory on eligibility to upgrade to Vanguard Brokerage accou
Replies: 12
Views: 2121

Re: What % of your fixed-income is TIPs?

...One thing I am very curious about that downturn in TIPS in 2008, supposedly driven by some liquidity issue and related to the Lehman debacle, is what accounts for the big upward bump just before? Shave off that bump and there is nothing to see... I know. I noticed that bump at the time and I did...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your fixed-income is TIPs?
Replies: 71
Views: 3500

Re: How do you rebalance?

I'm not special either, but I like to think for myself and do things my own way. With respect to my equity/fixed income allocation I only rebalance one way - from equity to fixed income. If equity prices decline sharply I might allocate more of my new purchases to equity, but I don't sell fixed inco...
by dkturner
Wed Dec 03, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you rebalance?
Replies: 40
Views: 3145

Re: Child Roth IRA Funding Strategy(Looking for a link)

Not sure about the original post, but it doesn't seem that hard to invest in a taxable account (brokerage or mutual fund) and then use it to fund a Roth IRA when the child gets a job and has earned compensation. You'd have to pay taxes on capital gains and dividends, of course. Here is a related po...
by dkturner
Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Child Roth IRA Funding Strategy(Looking for a link)
Replies: 6
Views: 1201

Re: RAFI vs. DFA

. A quick update. Here are the factor loads since inception of the RAFI funds (now that we have an easy to use tool in portfoliovisualizer). RAFI and DFA for large caps. http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y&includeQualityFactor=false&startDate=01%2F03%2F2006&endDate=11...
by dkturner
Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI vs. DFA
Replies: 127
Views: 23760

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015

Vanguard already has a similar fund for taxable investors; Short-Term Tax-Exempt has a duration of about one year. (Limited-Term Tax-Exempt is the muni fund with similar duration to the current short-term funds.) You're right. I got confused when I decided to guess the yield by comparing it to Limi...
by dkturner
Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015.
Replies: 39
Views: 4516

Re: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?

Since I have always followed a policy of only rebalancing from equities to bonds (never the other way around) I didn't bulk up on equities in late 2008 or early 2009. I did however reduce the government holdings in my bond portfolio from 75% to less than 15% between December 2008 and June 2009 and r...
by dkturner
Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 6239

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Both Bill Bernstein and Larry Swederoe have weighed in on this topic in recent months. They offer separate, but related, theories as to why the historical average of CAPE 10 has been higher over the last 40 or so years and is likely to remain so for some time to come.
by dkturner
Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015

...If you need small transactions for checks, accumulating dividends, sweep etc you absolutely hate floating NAV in a taxable account. Maybe "hate" is not a strong enough word -- "abhor"? "Loathe"? Either way, I'd be out of there tomorrow and would use my checking acco...
by dkturner
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015.
Replies: 39
Views: 4516

Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

Are you assuming that the guy who would buy your stock portfolio doesn't know about CAPE? The Shiller PE10 valuation measure just keeps trucking along. Since my last report, CAPE (Shiller PE/10) has now breached 27 on it's upward trajectory. This value has been exceeded by 84 of 1607 month-end valu...
by dkturner
Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1555

Re: The mathematics of recouping loss

Buddtholomew wrote:This should be the main reason to rebalance a portfolio to the target allocation.


How would that have worked for a Japanese guy starting in the late 1980s?
by dkturner
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The mathematics of recouping loss
Replies: 11
Views: 1266

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

I estimate that stocks have a roughly 1 in 4 chance of underperforming bonds over the next 30 years. This is higher than I had expected, but the Python script I used to generate this result is very simple and I can't spot any significant mistakes: Stocks might be for the long run, but you need to b...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 65
Views: 5856

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

Supposing that an investor did believe a major crash was coming within the next 2 years, what would be the proper course of action for him?It doesn't make sense to wait for the train to hit you, if you believe its coming. Why not wait until the wind actually picks up before putting plywood over the...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9190

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

As a retiree I have always been concern about risk, specigically that something highly unexpected can happen in the future that none of the retirement forecast software can predict. Something like the Japan equity market behavior, completely unexpected in modern times. This recent article has had a...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 55
Views: 4921

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

staythecourse wrote:Who cares what returns will be or end up?


You should care because you future lifestyle depends upon it. Kind of like saying "who cares if the oncoming storm is a mild blow or a category 4 hurricane". :idea:
by dkturner
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6678

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

What are the expected/actual tax implications for holding Wellesley vs. the LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Fund (VSCGX) fund? If held in an IRA there is no tax difference. If held in a taxable account Wellesley is almost certain to result in a higher tax burden. The extent of that burden is diffe...
by dkturner
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 5511

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Let's check back in 10 years. Pays to remember that "nobody knows nothing." Jack's predictions aren't worth any more than anybody else's and nobody is ever right predicting stock market returns. More investment porn... So......you're saying Jack Bogle is a pornographer - and he's chosen v...
by dkturner
Tue Nov 18, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6678

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

Does it meet your desired asset allocation? If Wellesley is too risky for him, he can pair it with cash, and if it too safe, he can pair with the Vanguard Wellington fund. +1 investor Small cap, international, Reits :?: John About 15% of Wellesley's equity holdings consist of international stocks (...
by dkturner
Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 5511

Re: Why would a European bother holding bonds in this climat

A Boglehead type European would presumably do the same as the homegrown version, namely invest his age in domestic bonds and avoid holding foreign bonds. What else could he do with the portion of his portfolio his IPS says he shouldn't allocate to equities?
by dkturner
Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would a European bother holding bonds in this climate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1610
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