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Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

richard wrote:Projections are not always accurate.


That's why they have horse races - and securities markets.
by dkturner
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4092

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

What is the CAPE at which I should not buy stocks? I'm asking very precise questions - what are the numbers at which I should stop buying, sell and resume buying? Is your answer that I should stop buying (sell?) when bond yields (which bonds?) exceed 1/CAPE? A precise question about an imprecise si...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4092

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

What is the CAPE at which I should not buy stocks? I'm asking very precise questions - what are the numbers at which I should stop buying, sell and resume buying? Is your answer that I should stop buying (sell?) when bond yields (which bonds?) exceed 1/CAPE? A precise question about an imprecise si...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4092

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous Yes, it does. Japan shows that a market crash can last long enough to convert shallow risk into deep risk. For those looking at Japan and coming up with reasons after the fact is kind of like how black swans are always reasoned out--after the fact. Is a...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4092

Re: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW

That was awesome. Just as the debate heats up around here on SCV vs. total market approach we get to hear from the giants of both sides. I am firmly convinced that Jack's approach is the best. Buy the market at the lowest cost possible and hold it forever. Beat that! (1) Adopt a long time horizon. ...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW
Replies: 23
Views: 1148

Re: Jack on Bloomberg Today...

On at 11:00 EDT
by dkturner
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack on Bloomberg Today...
Replies: 12
Views: 1642

Re: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?

Shorting treasuries is a no-brainer? Wow. This guy reminds me of Howard Ruff. Disaster is always around the corner. Very bold statements. But both turned out to be very wrong over time. These type of folks are right once at the exact right time and then are afforded undeserved guru status. The hype...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 07, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has a Taleb-esque portolfio done recently?
Replies: 34
Views: 3552

Re: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market

I just do not know what to make of some o the points in the interview. Perhaps as we move forward Mr. Bogle will better explain to us. He's flexible! Is that so difficult to understand? Mr. Bogle has a program for enterprising followers (overweight corporate bonds when it's party time, reallocate e...
by dkturner
Sat Apr 05, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market
Replies: 44
Views: 4968

Re: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market

Lets be honest... Mr. Bogle did advocate heavier allocation to corporate bonds and thus is market timing by definition. Well, maybe. I think "perceived valuation driven capital redeployment" is a better term for describing what Mr. Bogle actually said. Would it be asking too much for the ...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market
Replies: 44
Views: 4968

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

I've heard Bogle state that he is a buy and hold investor, but that he doesn't consider himself a buy, hold and rebalance investor. On occasion, when markets or spreads hit extremes, he re-allocates to reflect his desire of risk (or lack thereof) and his desire for yield which is an extremely impor...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 64
Views: 6131

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

Interesting. If 90% of U.S. fixed income users "rely" on the Aggregate Index maybe they like it because it's perceived to be easier to beat than some of the other bond indices? Sort of like why the Russell 2000 is a favorite of most active small-cap equity managers. It's not about beating...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 64
Views: 6131

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

From Landy's link" In 1986, Lehman broadened its Government/Corporate Index to include MBS securities. This expansion was called the U.S. Aggregate Index and backdated to 1976. The U.S. Aggregate Index and its subcomponents have become the dominant fixed income benchmarks used by U.S. money ma...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 64
Views: 6131

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

I totally agree with Bogle on emphasizing corporates over Treasuries in current bond portfolios. I own no Treasuries or TIPS at all, only corporates in my tax-advantaged accounts and either money market or munis in my taxable personal account. There is some increased repayment risk in investment gr...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 64
Views: 6131

Re: Example of efficient markets, or not?

Given the insignificant volume (note the long straight line that indicates no trades for most of the morning in the chart), I'd say its evidence of one or two idiots making a mistake. I think the long straight line was due to the temporary halt in trading of the stock. Still presumably due to a han...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Example of efficient markets, or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 641

Re: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So

Nisiprius, I got the statistics on EEM from Morningstar. I did look at the ownership zone chart and have no question on that but next to it is the holdings style chart and that`s when I began thinking about this situation. It lists in total 36 small, 58 mid and 5 large. Using these numbers would yo...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So
Replies: 67
Views: 4281

Re: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So

selftalk's data comes from https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/investments/portfoliodetails?fundId=0040 where Vanguard presents it in this format: http://s29.postimg.org/66uwmajev/Screen_Shot_2014_03_25_at_9_24_24_PM.png For comparison, the same presentation for Vanguard Large-Cap ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard Index Funds pure ??? Not So
Replies: 67
Views: 4281

Re: Stock index futures

The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund currently own about $.32 Trillon of domestic equities. Does a $10 Billion purchase of domestic equities index futures have the same impact on domestic equity markets as a $ 10 Billion purchase of the actual domestic equities comprising the index? I will ta...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 25, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock index futures
Replies: 4
Views: 636

Stock index futures

With both opened ended equity index mutual funds and exchange traded equity index funds comprising an ever increasing segment of the market, what is the impact on the equity markets of substituting equity index futures for actual equity purchases by these funds? The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock index futures
Replies: 4
Views: 636

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

Some of these responses are basically chastising my viewpoint. Essentially, I am reading them as saying if you are "poor" like only having a million or two or three, what did you expect other than poverty? So why I am complaining??? While poor is poor and if you are poor there is no point...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12896

Re: Morningstar Discussion On Roth Conversions

As I think converting an IRA to a Roth for the benefit of children who will inherit it as the best reason to do conversions, I thought this point raised by Kitces was important to keep in mind: The reality was, we've seen scenarios where mom and dad converted at 40% tax rates, they could have given...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Discussion On Roth Conversions
Replies: 11
Views: 1142

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

This was very disheartening and suggested that I should stop reading anything. But is he right??? If you have a million and need to support a 40 -50,000 lifestyle or 2 million and want to support a 100,000 lifestyle, etc, you basically just forget investing because you cant take any risk whatsoever...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12896

Re: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM b

Yes and wall street is lined with brilliant people with impressive academic credentials, and they all have a timing or valuation or some other story to tell, yet we all second-guess them all the time. We second-guess Rick when he advocates junk; we second-guess Larry when he advocates CCFs; we seco...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 23, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM bonds
Replies: 32
Views: 1983

Re: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM b

I am not sure why they suggested Equity-Income Fund, unless they believe in what Larry Swedroe called the "magic pants" theory of dividend stock funds --that there is an important difference between the dividends automatically paid out by a dividend stock fund, and simply extracting the s...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM bonds
Replies: 32
Views: 1983

Re: State taxes and out of state rental property

It's VA if anyone cares, but the tax due is almost exactly the same as what I was going to pay UT anyway for that income. The additional tax due in Virginia is about what it costs me to file a VA return via Turbotax. You have to look at this issue from the perspective of the individual states. They...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State taxes and out of state rental property
Replies: 25
Views: 1235

Re: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM b

I guess Bogleheads come in all shapes and sizes. A big tent is a good thing. :happy
by dkturner
Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking at Total Bond vs Malkiel/Ellis div stocks + EM bonds
Replies: 32
Views: 1983

Re: Puerto Rico bonds

I think the public credit market is potentially different from the private credit market-- bankruptcy law doesn't apply, in fact the whole subject of state and municipality default seems legally quite murky. You therefore have big event risk. The market is not being inefficient, there is genuine un...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 793

Re: Puerto Rico bonds

I think the public credit market is potentially different from the private credit market-- bankruptcy law doesn't apply, in fact the whole subject of state and municipality default seems legally quite murky. You therefore have big event risk. The market is not being inefficient, there is genuine un...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 793

Re: Puerto Rico bonds

Holding Coupon Rate Maturity Date Face Amount Market Value Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority Revenue 5.000% 07/01/2019 $35,430,000 $32,696,930 Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority Revenue 5.000% 07/01/2029 $38,010,000 $23,747,888 Can you explain the difference between the Puerto Rico Electric Po...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 21, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 793

Re: Puerto Rico bonds

In a commentary about risk and reward of common stocks several years ago Bill Bernstein mentioned that with respect to "value" stocks higher risk, on average, is associated with higher returns - but only up to a point. The really lousy "value" companies (those flirting with a pos...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 793

Re: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withd

So, a house that I own, and rent to a stranger, can be an "investable asset" but if I evict the stranger and move into the house that I own it's no longer an "investable asset"? How does the house know who lives in it? :confused That is the silliest proposition I've read in the ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withdrawa
Replies: 41
Views: 2104

Re: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withd

Are you saying that the equity in commercial real estate "is not an investable asset"? I'm saying what I said !! ... Assuming that I go with the "4% rule" or something like that, why is it that most calculators don't let you consider the equity in your home. I have a decent nest...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withdrawa
Replies: 41
Views: 2104

Re: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...

Rates didn't go up in 2013 and TBM was down 2%. 10 U.S. Treasury Note interest yields: 12/31/2012. 1.72% 12/31/2013. 2.90% The fed doesn't control 10 year note cost/yield, the market does. That's right. "The market" caused the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes to go from 1.72% at the b...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...
Replies: 39
Views: 3574

Re: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withd

I am near retirement and have been struggling with retirement calculators to figure out what kind of lifestyle is reasonable for me to support. Assuming that I go with the "4% rule" or something like that, why is it that most calculators don't let you consider the equity in your home. I h...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Counting equity in house in calculating retirement withdrawa
Replies: 41
Views: 2104

Re: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...

If this is the amount of daily volatility that gets termed as a "beating", I need to know how these words are associated with % losses: slipped creamed beaten down crushed massacred decimated annihilated I think I know what the loss is when Armageddon occurs. RM How about we try to quanti...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...
Replies: 39
Views: 3574

Re: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...

3504PIR wrote:Rates didn't go up in 2013 and TBM was down 2%.


10 U.S. Treasury Note interest yields:

12/31/2012. 1.72%

12/31/2013. 2.90%
by dkturner
Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...
Replies: 39
Views: 3574

Re: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...

Bond funds took a beating on March 19 because bonds took a beating on March 19. And interest rates DID rise. You should take a look at the various Barclays bond indices if you would like to confirm this for yourself. Why did interest rates rise yesterday when Janet said the Fed wasn't going to make ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did Bond Funds take a beating...
Replies: 39
Views: 3574

Re: Enhancing the dividend yield strategy

Thanks Larry. Is the Gordon Equation supposed to use these new measures, or is it no longer useful? To use the Gordon Equation, we would have to say, here's a calculation that shows what the income stream might have been if you had actually gotten it, and assuming it was actually all paid out. You ...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enhancing the dividend yield strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 839

Re: The Intelligent Investor

Hey Beck, But the question I have should we edge on decreased risk based on years in a bull market slowly decreasing our stock exposure and increasing the safety of bonds as recommended by Graham? What does your IPS say about this? Could this be a form of market timing? Obviously this is not part o...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 27
Views: 3297

Re: What "annual" retirement income are you hoping to achiev

What retirement income are you hoping to achieve in today's dollars? How is this relevant and useful, for instance, say you had 11 answers, 1 each per option listed ??? :confused You may select 1 option $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 or m...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What "annual" retirement income are you hoping to achieve?
Replies: 70
Views: 4162

Re: Target date retirement funds

I just skimmed the column, because I am not interested in target date funds. I thought the gist of the column, however, was something that has been discussed on this forum: that target date funds have become riskier and that one should ignore the investment horizon date on the funds and give more e...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target date retirement funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2162

Re: Target date retirement funds

I just skimmed the column, because I am not interested in target date funds. I thought the gist of the column, however, was something that has been discussed on this forum: that target date funds have become riskier and that one should ignore the investment horizon date on the funds and give more e...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target date retirement funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2162

Re: How many Bogleheads are Wishy Washy?

Truth be known most Bogleheads (including the forum's namesake) wander off the reservation from time to time (for example the recent brouhaha over whether the total bond market fund has too much exposure to U.S Government securities) There are however a few "virgins" who have scripted resp...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads are Wishy Washy?
Replies: 44
Views: 4111

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

In the nuclear age, there is, of course, a 4th scenario, for which the only hedging asset is an interstellar spacecraft. Even if you had one, where would you go? There are no confirmed earth-like planets. I think Bill's tongue in cheek point is that in the 4th scenario even the guys rolling over sh...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 25050

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

There's one bit of daylight between my and Larry's take on need to take risk, which is that I'm willing to say that if someone has, say 50 years of living expenses saved up, then half is the LMP and the other half is the risk portfolio, and you can invest the latter however you wish. I don't think ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 25050

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

This exercise has turned into a debate between aggressive versus conservative investors. Aggressive individuals are very likely to stay the course that got them where they are. Conservative individuals are much more likely to reef their sails once they have their home port in sight. I vote for runni...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 25050

Re: where did the dividend money go?

If lower dividends means lower expected equity returns where did the money go? It didn't go anywhere. The dividend yield is lower because stock prices are higher. Valuation. Partially. But don't forget that the average publicly traded company distributes a smaller percentage of its earnings to its ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: where did the dividend money go?
Replies: 8
Views: 1262

Re: Vanguard Minimum Investment Question

Read the notes on each fund. I was looking at several this morning and they all said that if you don't have at least $10k in that fund, you would be charged a $20 fee per fund that's below $10k. So if you only have, say $15k to invest, go total stock admiral and wait till you can grow the amount up...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Minimum Investment Question
Replies: 23
Views: 1683

Re: Vanguard Minimum Investment Question

Since nearly 63% of the TR2055 fund is comprised of Total Stock Market, which has by far the lowest expense ratio, why not put $10,000 in TSM Admiral class and $ 3,000 in the other TR funds? You will instantly receive the majority of your ultimate savings. Vanguard will automatically convert your r...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Minimum Investment Question
Replies: 23
Views: 1683

Re: Customer service - Vanguard vs Fidelity

Because of the basic nature of the two companies (Fidelity is all about customer service while Vanguard is all about rock bottom costs) Fidelity will probably always have superior customer service. But what are your priorities? If you are content with something along the lines of a three fund index ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 10, 2014 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Customer service - Vanguard vs Fidelity
Replies: 80
Views: 6624

Re: Vanguard Minimum Investment Question

Since nearly 63% of the TR2055 fund is comprised of Total Stock Market, which has by far the lowest expense ratio, why not put $10,000 in TSM Admiral class and $ 3,000 in the other TR funds? You will instantly receive the majority of your ultimate savings. Vanguard will automatically convert your re...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Minimum Investment Question
Replies: 23
Views: 1683
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