Search found 957 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Fidelity Fixed Income

eastwayroad wrote: Recently had a 1st time conversation with a Fidelity fixed income specialist to discuss my current bond holdings and future moves as I approach retirement. Though he was by no means trying to sell me on anything specific, I sensed a bias against ETF's/Funds and towards individual...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Fixed Income
Replies: 10
Views: 923

Re: Ulysses Contract

Why would you want to prevent an investor from selling stocks if the stock market is going down? How would this have worked in late 1929?
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ulysses Contract
Replies: 10
Views: 954

Re: Fidelity Fixed Income

Recently had a 1st time conversation with a Fidelity fixed income specialist to discuss my current bond holdings and future moves as I approach retirement. Though he was by no means trying to sell me on anything specific, I sensed a bias against ETF's/Funds and towards individual corporate or muni ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Fixed Income
Replies: 10
Views: 923

Re: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation

In my mind, there's a fine line between rulemaking and legislation. Obama gave a speech at AARP last week supporting the fiduciary requirement change. So far as I can tell, there is not yet a current proposed rule to comment on. I would appreciate knowing when and how to comment. Personally, I woul...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation
Replies: 7
Views: 778

Re: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation

Pending legislation is out of bounds here, so expect a lock. On the other hand, "Should I look for a fiduciary advisor" is not about pending legislation. Mike Piper has these thoughts: http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/should-financial-advisors-be-fiduciaries/ L. Actually I believe the OP ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 04, 2015 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fiduciary duty - pending legislation
Replies: 7
Views: 778

Re: Poll: Increasing international equities

Started reinvesting dividends from domestic stock holding into international holdings last year - started A little too early.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 03, 2015 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Increasing international equities
Replies: 56
Views: 3105

Re: "Lessons Learned With Stocks Up 60% From the Precrash Hi

Its a good article, although if you do a little fiddling with measurement points, you find that the 60% increase also roughly applies if you step further back and measure from late spring early summer 2000. Over that time period, the annual return falls to about 3.3% or so. In any case, I'd like to...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lessons Learned With Stocks Up 60% From the Precrash High"
Replies: 10
Views: 2670

Re: What's your average ER? [Expense Ratio]

.15

I like Vanguard's low cost actively managed funds.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your average ER? [Expense Ratio]
Replies: 106
Views: 5046

Re: active funds are beating the passive index funds

Give it about 10 years and see how those "index beating" funds have done against their benchmarks. My prediction is that 75-80% of these funds will trail their benchmark indexes after all that time. The reasons? Incorrect buy/sell decisions, transaction costs, and management fees. As Mr. ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard] active funds are beating the passive index funds
Replies: 13
Views: 2751

Re: Yale Endowment Report 2014

This is an amazing thread. We have several of the usual suspects questioning the reported return on the private equity portion of Yale University's endowment fund which is clearly stated in the text of the annual report. Confusion is caused because the clumps of asset allocations seem to be similar ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Report 2014
Replies: 44
Views: 3871

Re: Not "Staying the Course"

If the stock market were to drop, say 50%, like it has done twice in the last 15 years, I would be hard pressed to avoid raising my equity allocation from my 50% "target" to, say 65%. I would be inclined to do this despite my - former - resolve to never rebalance from bonds, only into bonds.
by dkturner
Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not "Staying the Course"
Replies: 40
Views: 4685

Re: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."

Total assets under management $1.9 million. 15-year total return -8.23%. 15-year investor return -10.70%. I always wonder about these funds with $1.9 million in assets... what are they like, really? What is the actual number of people investing in them? Nisi, you're an old timer. Don't you remember...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 27, 2015 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "As Hedge Fund Returns Falter,..."
Replies: 21
Views: 1475

Re: Admiral Shares vs ETFs for stocks

Other than the automatic contribution, what is the difference if I put $10k towards the mutual fund (VTSAX) vs the ETF version (VTI) ? Vanguard's Total Stock Market Admiral shares (VTSAX) have a $10k minimum purchase and an expense ratio of 0.05%. The ETF version of this (VTI) also has an expense r...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Admiral Shares vs ETFs for stocks
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?

For savings with a 20+ year horizon (i.e. I'm 35 and plan to retire at 65) why own any bonds? From the 1920s until today I haven't found a 20 year period where bonds beat stocks. Seems INCREDIBLY likely that stocks will beat bonds over any 20 year period in the next 50 years. This is assuming I can...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bonds With 20 Year Horizon?
Replies: 26
Views: 2017

Re: Rebalancing vs. Timing the market

Once a year regardless of what is going on "in the market" during the year :happy If you balance once per year do you pick a particular day in advance (like your birthday, or the last day of October) or do you wait until there is a substantial movement of equities to the upside or downside?
by dkturner
Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing vs. Timing the market
Replies: 23
Views: 836

Re: Bonus for transferring accounts

livesoft wrote:There are a few risks:
1. If transferring from Vanguard, some Vanguard propopents will have less respect for you.


I'm not sure what Vanguard propopents are but I sure wouldn't want to get on the wrong side of one of them. :twisted:
by dkturner
Sat Feb 21, 2015 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonus for transferring accounts
Replies: 6
Views: 715

Re: The 8x retirement savings rule

Second, the 67yo above has reached $100K net salary (after tax), has $50K expenses, and (s)he retires because of that rule of thumb: • $100K x 8 = $800K • $50K expenses = 6.25% of $800K • NO ONE in their right mind today, for a likely 20+ year period (age 87+), should tell you to withdraw in retire...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 8x retirement savings rule
Replies: 83
Views: 7772

Re: The 8x retirement savings rule

William Bernstein says you've won the game when you have 25x your salary saved. Sounds like a great goal to me! 8-) Actually, I think he says you've won the game when you have 20-25X your residual living expenses saved. He defined residual living expenses as your retirement spending need less pensi...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 8x retirement savings rule
Replies: 83
Views: 7772

Re: Calculating TIPS duration?

I'm trying to calculate the duration of some individual TIPS I own. The purpose of the exercise is to make sure the average duration of my total bond portfolio is within a range I find acceptable. I'm looking for a method that's approximately correct. Here's a prior thread on the general topic: htt...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating TIPS duration?
Replies: 6
Views: 408

Re: Mega backdoor: convince employer to allow after-tax cont

I posted this in the Mega backdoor Roth thread , but it got lost in the other discussions. Anyone on this thread have worked as a benefits coordinator for 401k for their employer? My employer has an excellent 401k plan where they match 50% of my pre-tax contributions up to the federal max. However,...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mega backdoor: convince employer to allow after-tax contribs
Replies: 6
Views: 758

Re: why stocks outperform other asset classes in the long ru

Please do not forget that stocks have been artificially manipulated since 2008, when the federal bailout took place, and after with multiple QEs. I have No trust in the so called "free stock market". And this is why stocks and index funds have not outperformed money markets, in my opinion...
by dkturner
Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why stocks outperform other asset classes in the long run ?
Replies: 51
Views: 3367

Re: Seeking alpha is flawed. Ex-ante alpha must be 0.

knpstr wrote:
acegolfer wrote:Can you explain why one measures alpha?


Job security.


+1

If alpha isn't positive the model needs to be "tweaked" :wink:
by dkturner
Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeking alpha is flawed. Ex-ante alpha must be 0.
Replies: 17
Views: 1292

Re: Seeking alpha is flawed. Ex-ante alpha must be 0.

Some investors (perhaps non BHs) calculate ex-post alpha using asset pricing models such as CAPM, 3-factor, 4-factor, etc. What's the objective? 1. If the model is correct, then ex-ante alpha for any security is 0. There's no alpha to seek. 2. If the model is wrong, then one is using a wrong model ...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeking alpha is flawed. Ex-ante alpha must be 0.
Replies: 17
Views: 1292

Re: More evidence that we are dopey investors

Here’s more evidence that left to our own devices, we are dopey investors: I got a letter from my 457b deferred compensation plan (for public-sector employees in my state) yesterday. Of concern to the custodian/advisor, it said, was the outsized allocation of assets in the plan, by individual inves...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More evidence that we are dopey investors
Replies: 19
Views: 2068

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

29 year tip yield @ 0.745%. looks like my yield forecast of 0.75% for the 30 year auction may be too low! 1% here we come??? Remember at auction the coupon yield is rounded down and the bonds is sold at a discount. If the non-competitive yield at the auction is .74 the resulting coupon will be 5/8 ...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 11, 2015 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3310

Re: Currency-Hedged International Funds? Why?

I've been seeing all these articles lately in the financial press (which is useless noise, I know) about currency hedged international funds. I don't get it. Doesn't that take away the whole point of international stocks providing portfolio diversification, in that they provide natural currency div...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency-Hedged International Funds? Why?
Replies: 8
Views: 649

Re: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?

Thank you for taking the time to post, Mike. It's great to hear Jack's thoughts. I can't say I would dive into a corporate bond index fund with mixed maturities that included LT issues, but I think the ST and IT corporate index funds that Vanguard rolled out in 2010 are wonderful low-cost options t...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 07, 2015 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?
Replies: 27
Views: 4558

Re: Bearish Boglehead, is there such a thing?

Fiduciaries acting in the role in which my father acted need to not lose money for those they are representing, above all else. Modest but certain returns are necessary, for the short term. Things like savings accounts, CDs, and possibly Money Market accounts are called for, certainly not stocks or...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bearish Boglehead, is there such a thing?
Replies: 45
Views: 3945

Re: Why publish indexes?

How much is it worth to S&P to have Warren Buffett say "My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund." rather than "Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why publish indexes?
Replies: 9
Views: 750

Re: A true Boglehead!

Warren Buffett doesn't "own the market" for himself or his Berkshire Hathaway corporation. He buys stocks or buys entire companies. Buffett has indicated that, when he dies, money invested for his wife should be put into the S&P 500 index. Boglehead in death, but not in life, perhaps....
by dkturner
Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Janitor in Vermont leaves millions] A true Boglehead!
Replies: 47
Views: 2988

Re: Why are spanish 10 year bonds yielding less than US ones

Valuethinker wrote:
Also ECB has begun QE thus increasing demand for government bonds, thus driving down the prices.



When one increases demand for government bonds doesn't that drive UP the prices?
by dkturner
Thu Feb 05, 2015 7:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are spanish 10 year bonds yielding less than US ones?
Replies: 5
Views: 551

Re: What exactly is "wealthy?"

It seems that the government and media seem to get net worth and income confused all the time. What do you say? It's easy to confuse the two terms but it needn't be. With a little bit of effort one can convert current income into net worth by doing a back of the envelope calculation of the present ...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 03, 2015 8:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What exactly is "wealthy?"
Replies: 47
Views: 4043

Re: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds

I don't think I've ever heard him mention it, but what's his advice for someone who doesn't live in the US? Good question :) I believe Mr. Bogle pitches his interview comments strictly to Americans. I can't imagine what he would say if a Brit were to approach him and say "I'm confused, are you...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds
Replies: 50
Views: 6450

Re: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?

As long as your bond portfolio is short or intermediate in term, includes a mix of treasuries and investment grade corporates, and is low cost, I doubt Mr. Bogle would find much fault in your choice. The question of munis IMO depends almost entirely on your tax situation. True, but some of the Usua...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?
Replies: 27
Views: 4558

Re: Total Bond: 23 years of SEC yield and distribution yield

- As others have mentioned, the fact that SEC yield is greater/less than the distribution yield is probably explained by relative amount of discounted/premium bonds in the fund. That makes sense to me. Since bond mutual fund amortize premiums and accrete discounts why would the "relative amoun...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond: 23 years of SEC yield and distribution yield
Replies: 64
Views: 6548

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

As an aside I think it is better for retirees to consider their income coming from total return and not just dividends & interest but that is getting too far off subject. I'm an old fashioned person and take the other side on the issue of income vs. total return. During trying times dividend in...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 7447

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

Correct me if I'm wrong, but premiums on bonds are amortized over the remaining life of the bonds held by a mutual fund aren't they? If that's the case how does the amortized yield result in a higher distribution yield than for a par bond? Doesn't the process of amortizing a premium put the distrib...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 7447

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

SEC yield is based on yield to maturity and YTM calculations assume that all coupon payments are reinvested at the same rate as the current yield Take a look at this link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_to_maturity "All the coupons are reinvested at an interest rate equal to the yield-to-m...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 7447

Re: Why are people buying 10 year Bunds?

baw703916 wrote:Treasuries carry currency risk for people in Eurozone countries.


Can't Germans hedge their currency exposure?
by dkturner
Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are people buying 10 year Bunds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1426

Re: "When you've won the game, stop playing"

Thanks, Bill. Actually I wonder if the most worrisome point about 2008 is the miss-perception that market crashes recover quickly and do no harm especially if one simply rebalances into them. There is a lot or rhetoric out there about how wonderful it is to "buy stocks cheap." But then, I...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When you've won the game, stop playing"
Replies: 83
Views: 8624

Re: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate

While The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has long been the most cited and widely recognized US stock market index. The first reaction I feel whenever I hear it mentioned is: “What a bunch of rubes !” No serious investor follows The DOW. I am proud to report that I couldn’t tell you within 1000...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate
Replies: 27
Views: 1966

Re: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate

Why do the media report point changes rather than percentage changes? It's my understanding that market research has convinced most of the media that their customers prefer reading/hearing about the point change rather than the percentage change. As an aside I was talking with an institutional inve...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate
Replies: 27
Views: 1966

Re: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate

While The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has long been the most cited and widely recognized US stock market index. The first reaction I feel whenever I hear it mentioned is: “What a bunch of rubes !” No serious investor follows The DOW. I am proud to report that I couldn’t tell you within 1000...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate
Replies: 27
Views: 1966

Re: Tilting to Corp. Bonds

In June of 2007 the spread between 5 year Treasuries and Baa corporates was only 167 basis points. ... The corporate yield was 33% higher than the treasury yield. Nothing to get excited about. I submit that if you view yield differences in percentages, as opposed to basis points or percentage point...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to Corp. Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 2976

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

dkturner: You are misinformed. SEC yield is a very accurate predictor of subsequent 10 year return. I believe that "current" yield is generally considered to be an accurate predictor of future total returns. "SEC" yield often differs wildly from "current" yield. Just f...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 7447

Re: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?

Even if the Fed begins the process of raising interest rates in 2015 what will be the impact on short-term bonds versus intermediate-term bonds? What happened with short versus intermediate bonds the last time (2003-2006) the Fed raised interest rates substantially? You should probably compare the ...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?
Replies: 26
Views: 2654

Re: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns

There have been many posts related to this topic, but I wanted to start a thread to show actual results for various Vanguard bond funds. In this first post is a chart of initial SEC yields and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns for Vanguard California Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt bond fund (one of the...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Initial SEC yield and subsequent 5yr and 10yr returns
Replies: 142
Views: 7447

Re: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015

Interestingly, now that I think about it, Malkiel's recommendation for 10% cash has remained rock-steady (despite large changes in the return from cash!) Yes, but in 2015 he includes short-term bonds as "cash". In 1990 he defined cash as money market funds. Looking at the Vanguard Total B...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015
Replies: 40
Views: 3900

Re: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015

Isn't it possible that Malkiel took a look around, made some assumptions about future needs and returns, and changed his mind about what, in his opinion, would be now be the best AA for a new retiree? Last time I checked the world is a lot different now than it was in 1990. We now think we know a lo...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015
Replies: 40
Views: 3900

Re: Tilting to Corp. Bonds

Does anyone think that Fed participation in the Treasury market may have been distorting the relationship between the relative yields of Treasury and investment grade corporate bonds? The credit spread doesn't look like it correlates with the Fed action as such except in the early part of the actio...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to Corp. Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 2976
Next

Return to advanced search