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Re: IS this car lease too good to be true?

Leasing has another aspect if you've never done it. I felt like I was driving a rental and was watching miles. A small scratch or a door ding can have more impact that if it was "yours". I know some love leasing. Just keep in mind the mental aspects beyond the costs. The other side to thi...
by ddb
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IS this car lease too good to be true?
Replies: 13
Views: 1839

Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

This nearly 6-year old thread comes to mind:

"Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor

- DDB
by ddb
Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 43
Views: 2570

Re: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his foreca

Just a note that this is Larry's second Hussman tear-down on the Bogleheads forum in the past three months, and IMO essentially a recycling of the first: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=138707 Certain members here seem to be exempt from the "no website traffic solicita...
by ddb
Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his forecasts
Replies: 76
Views: 8253

Re: Variable Annuity - Timing of Surrender Charges

Thank you for your responses. So far I have only seen the general publicly available plan documents, not their particular annuity contract, and wanted know what was standard (if there is such a thing for these products) before diving into them. What is the company name and contract name? If you pro...
by ddb
Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Annuity - Timing of Surrender Charges
Replies: 10
Views: 581

Re: Variable Annuity - Timing of Surrender Charges

dickenjb wrote:Why are surrender charges relevant? They can't take money out until they terminate employment anyway.


In the 403b world, can transfer funds to another investment provider sanctioned by the employer, even if employee is under 59.5 and still working for the employer.

- DDB
by ddb
Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Annuity - Timing of Surrender Charges
Replies: 10
Views: 581

Re: Volatility: Oh how I love thee.

Yeah, that was sort-of a confusing use of words. Better to say that I'll be rebalancing in a lower prices. :wink: Rick The ability to buy stocks when prices are down can happen under 3 basic scenarios: 1. Investor has cash on sidelines ready to buy stocks at certain valuation levels. 2. Investor is...
by ddb
Thu Aug 07, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility: Oh how I love thee.
Replies: 44
Views: 3348

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Wow, Dave managed to be offensive to a number of different groups of people in just 9 minutes!

I do agree with his bigger point, though, that one's financial success is most impacted by good habits, i.e. live below your means and save the rest.

- DDB
by ddb
Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 23372

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

That's a nice rant, baw. But, I think you missed the point of the thread. To me, the point was that Mr. Bogle made a call 15 years ago and it was correct. Maybe some can see what will happen? If you want to call that cherry picking though... John Bogle didn't make a call 15 years ago regarding the ...
by ddb
Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12836

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

A few points worth mentioning here: 1. Basing an investment strategy on a recent 15-year period of returns is probably a bad idea. Else, we should all invest entirely in long-term government bonds and small-cap value stocks. 2. Looking at annualized returns of each component is not particularly help...
by ddb
Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12836

Re: Compact SUV as family car for the long term

Two kids (6, 5), we find that our Mazda CX-5 (compact SUV) and Subaru WRX STi (small hatchback) both have plenty of interior room and cargo space for our needs as a family of four. With the carseats, though, carrying a fifth passenger is basically not an option. This occasionally causes some limitat...
by ddb
Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Compact SUV as family car for the long term
Replies: 15
Views: 1355

Re: Comparing W2 to 1099 job

I'm working as both an employee (W2) and independent contractor (1099). I'm trying to determine which job has a higher hourly rate. I already max out my retirement and benefits through my employed (W2) position. I plan on keeping both jobs for now. Job #1: Employee, $225/hr Job #2: Independent cont...
by ddb
Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Comparing W2 to 1099 job
Replies: 10
Views: 2442

Re: Newer paper(s) akin to Carhart's 1997 "On Persistence...

1. Bradford Cornell, “Luck, Skill and Investment Performance.” The Journal of Portfolio Management (Winter 2009). 2. Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, “Luck versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Alpha Estimates,” June 2009. Thanks, Larry, these are exactly what I was looking for. Bot...
by ddb
Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newer paper(s) akin to Carhart's 1997 "On Persistence..."
Replies: 3
Views: 1302

Re: Most realiable way to double a portfolio in 12 years

If you wanted to double the size of a portfolio in 12 years how would you invest the money. If it goes over that's fine but not necesssary. The goal is to fine the most likely and least risky investment option to achieve this goal. To double a portfolio size in 12 years on a nominal basis, without ...
by ddb
Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most reliable way to double a portfolio in 12 years
Replies: 55
Views: 14907

Newer paper(s) akin to Carhart's 1997 "On Persistence..."

Hi All: Are there any more recent academic papers which look at persistence (or lack thereof) in mutual fund performance? Carhart's 1997 masterpiece did a great job tackling this subject, but at this point the data set he used is 21 years outdated (he looked at January 1962 through December 1993). T...
by ddb
Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newer paper(s) akin to Carhart's 1997 "On Persistence..."
Replies: 3
Views: 1302

Re: Friend possibly victim of real estate dual agency

Any feedback? Thanks. I am not aware that real estate agents are required to act in the best interest of their clients. Based on the limited info provided, doesn't sound to me like there's much here to "go after". - DDB Whether or not it was met here is an open, question but traditionally...
by ddb
Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend possibly victim of real estate dual agency
Replies: 27
Views: 2778

Re: Friend possibly victim of real estate dual agency

CrossOverGuy wrote:Any feedback? Thanks.


I am not aware that real estate agents are required to act in the best interest of their clients.

Based on the limited info provided, doesn't sound to me like there's much here to "go after".

- DDB
by ddb
Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend possibly victim of real estate dual agency
Replies: 27
Views: 2778

Re: Buy a used car or pay $5,000 more to get a new one?

I thought about just going for a new Crosstrek but decided that it didn't make sense to buy something I don't need just because I want it. We're not all living on rice/beans/water while living in an efficiency apartment and walking to work, which means that most of us are buying things we don't nee...
by ddb
Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy a used car or pay $5,000 more to get a new one?
Replies: 62
Views: 4952

Re: Professions that have the most/least psychopaths

frugaltype wrote:I'm surprised to see clergymen in there. On the other hand, there seems to be a great divide in that profession, some being totally unempathic and extremely nasty and others being perhaps the best people ever.


This profession was the one I most expected to see on the list.
by ddb
Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Professions that have the most/least psychopaths
Replies: 30
Views: 2157

Re: An 8% SWR ???

Money Magazine has an article citing an author proposing that one save 12 times one's pre-retirement income by age 65 for retirement: http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/03/retirement/retirement-savings.moneymag/index.html The article later suggests that amount may be reduced by 10% to 25% by ramping up p...
by ddb
Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An 8% SWR ???
Replies: 12
Views: 2149

Re: Best smartphone in 2014?

I need a new phone... my old one (now ancient) broke after 4 years of use. I use the internet a lot and I also want one with the best camera for photos/video. Any suggestions? Depends on a lot of information not provided. I'm a bigtime Android fanboy, however I think the typical smartphone user who...
by ddb
Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best smartphone in 2014?
Replies: 38
Views: 2850

Re: I bought a rosé this week...

Because life is short. Had never bought a rosé before... Julia's Dazzle Pinot Grigio rosé at Costco for a pretty good price, $13 or something. It's nice, refreshing, not very complex, but good for the milder spring weather we've been having. At work and in my personal life recently I've seen too mu...
by ddb
Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I bought a rosé this week...
Replies: 35
Views: 3863

Re: Good, reasonable priced pinot grigio?

Fortunately for you, Pinot Grigio has a pretty low ceiling on price. For example, a search at wine.com reveals that their most expensive Pinot Grigio is $24.99 for a 750ml bottle. Santa Margherita is very popular, and will also fit in with most peoples' perception of what a pinot grigio tastes like....
by ddb
Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good, reasonable priced pinot grigio?
Replies: 7
Views: 946

Re: Firing an Advisor

Transfer the stocks to a discount brokerage, so that they will be less expensive to sell. Find the tax basis of every stock. Sell any stock which is more than 5% of your portfolio to get it down to 5%, independent of tax consequences; having too much in any one stock is an unnecessary risk. Sell al...
by ddb
Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Firing an Advisor
Replies: 18
Views: 1998

Re: how much more expensive is a bigger home?

You might want to read this first. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB111852419690557157 That article is interesting, but fails to take into the account the economic benefit received in having a house to live in for 13 years. e.g. let's say the author would have had to spend $1,500 per month to ...
by ddb
Mon Nov 18, 2013 9:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how much more expensive is a bigger home?
Replies: 68
Views: 5092

Re: What are your favorite android smartphone apps?

Google Wallet. More and more retail locations have added the wireless reader to their credit card machines, and paying by tapping my smartphone is so cool - always leaves expressions of wonder and amazement on the faces of the cashiers!

- DDB
by ddb
Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your favorite android smartphone apps?
Replies: 50
Views: 5447

Re: Mini Cooper or Fiat 500?

I'd strongly prefer a VW GTI to either of these options. A $549 ECU upgrade (Stage I) gives you 252hp and 303ft-lbs of torque. Also, can add a solid rear sway bar to nearly eliminate any hint of underste er. And then, I'd even more strongly prefer a Subaru WRX to either of the above options. For me...
by ddb
Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mini Cooper or Fiat 500?
Replies: 49
Views: 4348

Re: Mini Cooper or Fiat 500?

I'd strongly prefer a VW GTI to either of these options. A $549 ECU upgrade (Stage I) gives you 252hp and 303ft-lbs of torque. Also, can add a solid rear sway bar to nearly eliminate any hint of understeer. And then, I'd even more strongly prefer a Subaru WRX to either of the above options. For me, ...
by ddb
Thu Oct 31, 2013 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mini Cooper or Fiat 500?
Replies: 49
Views: 4348

Re: 2014 MDX

I welcome thoughts on the following .... Planning to get 18' rather than 19" wheels -- make sense (18' are standard)? Planning to not get navigation as we will use iPhone --- make sense? Other thoughts? Thanks. All else being equal, I prefer smaller wheels. Lighter weight reduces unsprung mass...
by ddb
Thu Oct 24, 2013 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2014 MDX
Replies: 16
Views: 1411

Residential water heater recommendation?

Hi All: I'd like to replace my 15-year old water heater. My requirements are natural gas-powered, and 40-50 gallon capacity. I'm generally willing to pay a little bit more for a "better" unit (i.e. longer warranty, more energy efficient, quieter, etc.). The absolute max I'm willing to spen...
by ddb
Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Residential water heater recommendation?
Replies: 13
Views: 1809

Re: Getting Started As An Advisor

I don't think you'll have any luck finding an existing firm that shares your values, is willing to hire a part-time new representative, and will give you a payout rate that you think is fair. Based on your post here, and the fact that you hang out on this forum, it's safe to assume that the ideal bu...
by ddb
Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Started As An Advisor
Replies: 18
Views: 2405

Re: Roth Conversion for Backdoor Access Beneficial?

My wife is a SAHM and has both a Roth (~$30k) and a traditional (~$30k) IRA. I am interested in being able to do backdoor Roth conversions in her account. Per information in the "Backdoor Roth" Wiki, we would need to convert the traditional IRA to do so, paying taxes at our current rate. ...
by ddb
Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversion for Backdoor Access Beneficial?
Replies: 10
Views: 823

Re: What should my mother do w her $600,000 retirement money

Hello Bogleheads, I am at a loss about how to advise my mother - She is a widow, and has about $600,000 in retirement. She has no other savings, and currently live in a $900/month subsidized apartment. All her money is sitting in checking/savings now because she's scared of the market, and I can't ...
by ddb
Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What should my mother do w her $600,000 retirement money?
Replies: 31
Views: 5020

Re: An inheritance just when I need it.

ddb, thank you. that is extremely helpful, and I am astonished at the speed with which you drew up the spread sheet. My only question is why you used $1.5 million as the baseline for the projected draw down of assets, when I have 2.1 million. You seem to have excluded my retirement accounts. Was th...
by ddb
Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An inheritance just when I need it.
Replies: 6
Views: 1148

Re: An inheritance just when I need it.

Here are some quick "back-of-the-envelope" calculations. Please don't rely on this for anything other than entertainment value. I assumed your required living expenses are $40K (inflated at 3% per year), I made some guesses about the timing of child support and college tuition payments. I ...
by ddb
Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An inheritance just when I need it.
Replies: 6
Views: 1148

Re: Wine Picks

never is my objective to get a "buzz". Rather, I savor the experience of something which, to me, just tastes fantastic Ah, the old "I like the taste" argument. If this was true, then dealcoholized wine (and beer, and bourbon...) would be a big industry. But it isn't. For me, the...
by ddb
Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wine Picks
Replies: 44
Views: 2749

Re: Why can I not buy Admiral Shares ?

The $ amount was a birthday gift from my father and he wanted to utilize funds unused in his Schwab brokerage account and just did a fund transfer to my Schwab brokerage account. The reason for purchasing a Vanguard fund is that I will eventually consolidate both accounts into one at Vanguard for s...
by ddb
Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why can I not buy Admiral Shares ?
Replies: 18
Views: 2105

Re: Why/How is the Vanguard REIT VA an insurance offering?

Thanks everyone. Let me be a bit more clear. Assuming I don't "annuitize "ever -- I just want to get distributions from the money I invested at retirement age. What role did the insurance company play? In this case, you are insuring against adverse changes in annuitization rates while you...
by ddb
Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why/How is the Vanguard REIT VA an insurance offering?
Replies: 11
Views: 957

Re: Wine Picks

' I think fine wines are mostly a silly racket. The buzz ya get from a $300 bottle of Opus One seems to me to be near-identical to the effect of a bottle of 3 Buck Chuck. If you're got money to burn and feel the need to impress people, go for it. My experience is vastly different, although I respec...
by ddb
Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wine Picks
Replies: 44
Views: 2749

Re: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation

Back testing over the last 80 years provides no certainty of how things will perform in the future. If you feel that way about historical data then what justification do you have for holding stocks at all? What makes them better than say real estate for example? I don't believe stocks will outperfo...
by ddb
Mon Sep 30, 2013 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation

If a person has a $200K mortgage I knew someone would say that. We do not usually treat someone's home and mortgage as part of their asset allocation in this forum, though I'm not saying it's wrong to do so. Nor would it be wrong to include an expensive car and accompanying finance deal, but as wit...
by ddb
Mon Sep 30, 2013 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation

Reasons why 100% is not just an arbitrary point on a continuum:- 1. It is not straight-forward or easy to go past the 100% threshold. The funds you would choose if you were going to be less than 100% are no longer an option once you go over. You can't just buy the Vanguard 200% SP500 fund if you wa...
by ddb
Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation

Even if you're completely comfortable with 100% stocks a small bond allocation will vastly increase your risk adjusted returns. You state this as a fact. Why? It's pretty straightforward MPT math. Two non-correlated assets will have a greater risk adjusted return than a single asset. http://en.wiki...
by ddb
Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation

Clearly_Irrational wrote:Even if you're completely comfortable with 100% stocks a small bond allocation will vastly increase your risk adjusted returns.


You state this as a fact. Why?
by ddb
Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation

johncunningham: Sorry in advance for the lazy format of this message. Please don't construe any of the below as financial advice, as none of us know enough details about you to provide such advice. Rather, these are jumbled thoughts based on the limited info provided. * Given your income tax bracket...
by ddb
Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Poster. Talk me out of 100%stock allocation
Replies: 50
Views: 6307

Re: Most Americans Consider Themselves to be Middle Class (W

These results are not surprising to me. We all seem to think that what we do is "normal" and what others do (especially those above us in socio-economic circles) is unusual. I often use the travel analogy: those who drive everywhere can't imagine somebody would waste money on airline trave...
by ddb
Fri Sep 13, 2013 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most Americans Consider Themselves to be Middle Class (WSJ)
Replies: 9
Views: 1544

Re: TIPS - Going Down with the Ship?

And in any event, your criticism applies to all fixed income except zero-coupon bonds. Maybe you should have made that clear in this explicitly TIPS-related thread. I'm not criticizing anything here, just pointing out a component of investing in fixed income securities that pay coupons. Yes, reinve...
by ddb
Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS - Going Down with the Ship?
Replies: 112
Views: 13233

Re: TIPS - Going Down with the Ship?

PJW, TIPS pay cash interest in addition to the inflation adjustment. There's reinvestment risk on that cash interest. VT is correct. Right. Extreme example: Year 0: Buy a 30-year TIPS with a coupon rate of 1.500% at par. Real yield is therefore 1.5000%. Next day, the yield on your TIPS drops to 0.0...
by ddb
Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS - Going Down with the Ship?
Replies: 112
Views: 13233

Re: False Promises of Annuities



Those links are dead, too :(
by ddb
Wed Sep 11, 2013 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: False Promises of Annuities
Replies: 23
Views: 2309

Re: False Promises of Annuities

Esteemed Boglehead Mel Lindauer wrote a series of articles a couple years ago on annuities which did a MUCH better job explaining these products in simple language. These also appeared at forbes.com, and the Bogleheads discussion threads about each of his 6 articles are linked below (and include li...
by ddb
Wed Sep 11, 2013 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: False Promises of Annuities
Replies: 23
Views: 2309

Re: False Promises of Annuities

I see what you mean. I think his statement of "The guarantee of dimishing lifestyle because of inflation" gets to his point, which is that Annuity salesmen OFTEN talk about the GUARANTEE of annuities and safety and yet do not tell you that it won't keep pace with inflation, has high surre...
by ddb
Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: False Promises of Annuities
Replies: 23
Views: 2309
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