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Re: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?

A good way to answer these questions about why this bonds, that REIT, etc. would be to read the book. Maybe someone who has can answer the questions. I thought this morning about anteing up $18.71 for the Kindle edition or even going to the library and then decided not to as whatever he might have w...
by dbr
Sun Dec 21, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 2763

Re: Need Cash if Hold Target or LS Fund ?

I would like the forum members thoughts on whether one should hold a year or two cash /short term bonds/cds for liquidity purposes if one had all assets in TR or LS Fund. I think you are confusing the concept of liquidity with the concept of shortening duration to reduce interest rate risk. Stock a...
by dbr
Sun Dec 21, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Cash if Hold Target or LS Fund ?
Replies: 6
Views: 485

Re: Using balanced funds to avoid rebalancing

When does not rebalancing start to fall into the morally incorrect category of market timing? The standard explanation would be that investment moves dictated by the current state of a market are not market timing while investment moves based on presumptions regarding the timing of future states of...
by dbr
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using balanced funds to avoid rebalancing
Replies: 29
Views: 1767

Re: Beginner question on expense ratio

The NAV is computed daily by adding up the value of all assets after expenses are paid. I am not sure in detail exactly how the bookkeeping is done if, for example, the monthly bill for paperclips is paid 12/18 by issuing a check on whatever cash account the fund might hold as opposed to some other ...
by dbr
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginner question on expense ratio
Replies: 4
Views: 442

Re: New boglehead - how do switch?

I'm ready to get my bogle on! I've got a sizable after tax portfolio in 100% stocks, a couple growing Roths that I backdoor more every year and a company 401k. Writing my investment policy statement up and will share shortly for feedback. My question is, do I sell my portfolio all at once and inves...
by dbr
Sun Dec 21, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New boglehead - how do switch?
Replies: 4
Views: 495

Re: Using balanced funds to avoid rebalancing

I am continually impressed Nisi with your posts. Indeed. So am I. There are no experts on this forum who maintain that rebalancing increases returns and yet there are many on this forum who seem to think there is a "bonus". I was reading yesterday a thread and someone casually mentioned i...
by dbr
Sun Dec 21, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using balanced funds to avoid rebalancing
Replies: 29
Views: 1767

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

Well it is another great year for Wellington (up 8.98% YTD ER 0.18% Admiral). To me this fund continues to demonstrate active management with low fees can work. Seriously is there any legit reason to avoid this fund with its very long history of success? Dividends and capital gains distributions if...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 82
Views: 8510

Re: What "actively" manged funds do you own?

VAIPX, Vanguard TIPS fund.
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What "actively" managed funds do you own?
Replies: 75
Views: 3369

Re: Moving from growth to a capital preservation portfolio

General Background Problem Statement At this point, I am far more interested in preserving what I have than in making outstanding future returns. I.e. I don’t want to lose my savings to a sudden decline in the stock market, a major political event, inflation / deflation etc. I am looking for an ass...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from growth to a capital preservation portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: Am I being too conservative?

If by 70/30 you mean 70% stocks, then the answer is that such an allocation would never be too conservative for anyone.
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being too conservative?
Replies: 19
Views: 1442

Re: husband with bi-polar condition spending lots of $

[Medical discussion removed by admin LadyGeek]

As far as legal and financial defenses, it is mandatory to consult an attorney for advice.
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: husband with bi-polar condition spending lots of $
Replies: 17
Views: 3130

Re: Reinvest Dividends (safely)

I auto reinvest all dividends. I haven't seen a significant TLH opportunity in any of my accounts for ages. The one I am looking at now I don't want to execute anyways, it is not much anyways, better to just pay the taxes and forget about it. Is this the way to go for the average investor with a lo...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvest Dividends (safely)
Replies: 22
Views: 2011

Re: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?

I don't understand the question. Are you saying that these are his suggestions for an individual's investments, or for endowment fund investments? I always thought that recommendations in that book are for individual investors. Why investing for a college endowment fund would shed light on how an i...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 2763

Re: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?

I don't understand the question. Are you saying that these are his suggestions for an individual's investments, or for endowment fund investments? I always thought that recommendations in that book are for individual investors. Why investing for a college endowment fund would shed light on how an i...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Swensen have 30% Bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 2763

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

It is still the case, as someone above observed, that eliminating all of driving under the influence, driving too fast for conditions or driving at all in bad conditions, driving while distracted, and failing to wear seatbelts would help tremendously and more than exactly what vehicle a young perso...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 68
Views: 4772

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

lululu wrote:Things must be going well if there are two pages arguing about whether a fund that returns more or less 8% long term is a dog or not.


There is no basis for concluding any such thing.
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 82
Views: 8510

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

As of the most recent quarter-end, Wellington has now underperformed its benchmark for 1, 3, and 5 years. That's pretty devastating for an active fund manager, whose existence is based on beating benchmarks. So I'm speculating another benchmark is actually being used internally - otherwise the fund...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 82
Views: 8510

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

Why do these stories never consider the chances that your kid kills someone else? Put an inexperienced driver in a tank and if he has an accident, he gets a greater chance of being the one who walks away while the person in the normal sized car he hit dies. This is the issue with choosing a big, he...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 68
Views: 4772

Re: Reinvest Dividends (safely)

Reinvesting or not reinvesting dividends in a taxable account is really a choice between managing more complicated tax returns for reinvested dividends vs simpler tax returns for saving up dividends and using them in a smaller number of transactions. The effect on returns and risk is no more than th...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvest Dividends (safely)
Replies: 22
Views: 2011

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

TheTimeLord wrote:But if 11+% in a low inflation world is not a fine year for you so be it.



I don't think of investments having a fine year or a bad year. Investment performance is so noisy the concept doesn't really make any sense.
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 82
Views: 8510

Re: Is VG Portfolio Tool too aggressive?

I don't think any tool exists that does this exercise effectively. The best approach I am aware of is to read in one or another of Larry Swedroe's books on the concept of need/ability/willingness to take risk. After that it is a question of applying your own judgement and preference to as good an un...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VG Portfolio Tool too aggressive?
Replies: 17
Views: 1148

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

Why is it a fine year when they have failed to meet their benchmark this year, on three years, and on five years? They did manage to take less loss in the '08/'09 crash, which is worth something, enough to exceed their benchmark on ten year performance, but not relevant to saying recent performance ...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 82
Views: 8510

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

I am afraid it is a fact of life that neither Wiki's, nor FAQ's, nor stickies are particularly helpful at directing posters to those sources in preference to people just asking the question. Therefore, in the end the best response, as nisi suggests, is to just answer the question, and, as PJW says, ...
by dbr
Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]
Replies: 137
Views: 12047

Re: Where do stock dividends go before distributed by a fund

The 2013 annual report for Vanguard TSM shows a year end balance of $2,263,406,146 in the Vanguard Market Liquidity Fund, a money market fund. That amounts to 0.8% of the fund assets. My personal asset tabulation currently shows 1.2% of my assets in money market type accounts, sweep funds, and check...
by dbr
Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do stock dividends go before distributed by a fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 725

Re: On average, how often do you check your investment balan

I logon to most accounts, from credit cards to banks and investments a couple of times a week to review/audit activity. There is a balance there looking me in the face but that's not why I'm logged in there. In reality I do about the same, maybe less, just keeping tabs that there is nothing out of ...
by dbr
Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: On average, how often do you check your investment balances?
Replies: 53
Views: 3305

Re: On average, how often do you check your investment balan

I am looking around at a possible add-on of some kind for Excel that would display my total asset balance as ticker tape on screen, updated continuously.
by dbr
Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: On average, how often do you check your investment balances?
Replies: 53
Views: 3305

Re: Real Estate property vs index funds for kids

I agree with the posters who would not saddle the kids with running a real estate business before they even have a chance to think about what they are doing with their lives.
by dbr
Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real Estate property vs index funds for kids
Replies: 10
Views: 983

Re: How do you determine your withdrawal rate?

What do you want to know this number for? That would determine what to calculate. As an example, if you want to compare to a typical safe withdrawal rate analysis you would calculate relative to portfolio starting value and compare to an inflation adjusted initial SWR estimate. There are other thing...
by dbr
Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you determine your withdrawal rate?
Replies: 13
Views: 1205

Re: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French

Because you can get more return by holding more in stocks and less in bonds just as well. If you are 100% stocks and you want more return at more risk, then tilting would be necessary rather than just another road to Dublin. The real question, asked by the OP, is are you getting a free lunch in mor...
by dbr
Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French
Replies: 15
Views: 927

Re: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French

If CAPM is a better model of risk than FF, it might make sense to tilt to small and value, as CAPM does not do as good a job at explaining small and value returns as FF. In other words, small and value might produce better risk adjusted returns in this case. If FF is a better model of risk than CAP...
by dbr
Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk-Adjusted Equity Returns - CAPM vs. Fama-French
Replies: 15
Views: 927

Re: With this uncertainty, where to put $200k plus....

You could follow this advice:

December: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, October, August, and February.
- Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar
by dbr
Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: With this uncertainty, where to put $200k plus....
Replies: 26
Views: 2514

Re: How much will this $3 million portfolio be worth in 2040

mhc wrote:I would run it through firecalc.com to see the distribution of possible results.


Yes, as mhc suggests, you are off in that the range of possible outcomes might average out at $5MM but could be anywhere from $1MM to $20MM or even wider than that. What kind of answer does your friend want?
by dbr
Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much will this $3 million portfolio be worth in 2040?
Replies: 4
Views: 1436

Re: VPW and annuities

How do you intend to liquidate the annuity? Are you going to annuitize, which means the principal disappears but you gain the annuity income stream? That would be the usual idea, I think.
by dbr
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: VPW and annuities
Replies: 5
Views: 571

Re: Should CASH be counted in allocation planning

Hi... Can anyone tell me if CASH should be counted as a component of one's AA...I currently have about 6-12 months cash for emergencies and expenses Thank you Let's imagine you have $50K in cash, $225K in bonds, and $225K in stocks. You can call that a 50/225/225 cash/bond/stock portfolio, or you c...
by dbr
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should CASH be counted in allocation planning
Replies: 15
Views: 1093

Re: GEICO vs. USAA auto insurance

Now that we have USAA, does anyone know offhand if coverage includes rental cars? When you ask them be sure to specifically address coverage for car out of use charges. Also some insurance will cover that but not actually reimburse you because the rental company will not supply documentation for th...
by dbr
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GEICO vs. USAA auto insurance
Replies: 29
Views: 3146

Re: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little

Had TBM existed what would this have looked like from, say 1970 to 1984? I'm going to guess that runaway inflation is far more damaging to bond funds than interest rate rises. Bonds had negative real returns around the 30-year period of 1950 - 1980, but that was more from huge inflation at the end ...
by dbr
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little
Replies: 32
Views: 2941

Re: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement

You can't asset allocate or bucket your way out of spending too much and/or having bad luck. On the other hand 4% and most of the run of luck will probably, but not certainly, be ok. If you want to improve the odds you can annuitize more and/or spend a little less. One form of spending less when nec...
by dbr
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 80/20 stocks/bonds for near retirement
Replies: 26
Views: 2286

Re: 3-funds, annual rebalancing, and then what??

There is the option of watching your financial situation multiple times a day and actually doing anything 1/multiple times per year. I'm not sure I understand the problem. I fear the more I follow along, the more involved I will want to be in trying to chase a fraction of a percent in potential gai...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-funds, annual rebalancing, and then what??
Replies: 17
Views: 1207

Re: 3-funds, annual rebalancing, and then what??

There is the option of watching your financial situation multiple times a day and actually doing anything 1/multiple times per year.

I'm not sure I understand the problem.
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-funds, annual rebalancing, and then what??
Replies: 17
Views: 1207

Re: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio

Then there is a final cost in taxable accounts which is that active funds will incur higher taxable distributions of capital gains.
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio
Replies: 22
Views: 745

Re: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio

TradingPlaces wrote: My opinions strictly: - expense ratio is what fund manager charges for administration and management, - if turnover is high, that should be reflected in the funds performance. A fund that trades more will make less returns. That is exactly what I thought before I found the comm...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio
Replies: 22
Views: 745

Re: TD Ameritrade portfolio help

Thank you everyone. From what I'm gathering from all of you, and using commission-free ETFs only for easier rebalancing, I'm thinking: VTI 55% VEU 21.25% VSS 3.75% BND 20% How does this sound? Or should I have less/more BND with 30-35 years left until retirement? Thanks. I wouldn't mess around with...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TD Ameritrade portfolio help
Replies: 15
Views: 898

Re: Help with uninvested cash with large looming expenses

I would hang on and do nothing in particular until the air clears after a year or so.
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with uninvested cash with large looming expenses
Replies: 2
Views: 332

Re: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio

retiredjg wrote: If you want to compare like to like, compare to the Fidelity Freedom INDEX Fund series....I would NOT use the Fidelity Freedom series - just a jumbled unintelligible mess with a high expense ratio. I probably would use the Fidelity Freedom Index Series... I'm so happy you caught th...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio
Replies: 22
Views: 745

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

The above is an excellent discussion and should be read carefully. A good approach to risk is the Larry Swedroe need/ability/willingness triad. In that triad willingness is the psychological ability to stay the course, but ability is the actual ability to absorb the consequences of things not turnin...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2665

Re: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio

dbr wrote: I think a possible estimate is 1% in costs for every 100% in turnover. That would be a massive addition to "low cost" funds. In Fidelity's example .54% (turnover cost) added to .77% ER = 1.31% total expense ratio? :shock: Vanguard total expense ratio is .24%? Am I on the right ...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio
Replies: 22
Views: 745

Re: Investing more when the market is down.

I have a hard time wrapping my head around this. When the market is down everyone agrees it's a good time to invest. "I'm buying stocks at a bargain price". Most Bogleheads agree. If you've got some cash set aside - invest. But I can't see how this isn't "timing the market" and ...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing more when the market is down.
Replies: 22
Views: 2295

Re: Why does VSS have a negative HmL?

Maybe I just don't understand regressions very well. I hear the Fama French papers are relatively easy to follow, and hope to get around to (re?) reading them myself. It doesn't hurt, though, to read up on some basic statistics as to what a regression is. If an article like this one: http://en.wiki...
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does VSS have a negative HmL?
Replies: 8
Views: 975

Re: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little

A simple solution to the dilemma is to not move one's investments from CD's to IB. So the question is, what is uncomfortable about staying in CDs that causes the issue to even arise? That might be what is irrational.
by dbr
Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little
Replies: 32
Views: 2941
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