Search found 88 matches

by davidlukewilcox
Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Huge Mistake, Bought PBYI, Now What?
Replies: 26
Views: 3497

Re: Huge Mistake, Bought PBYI, Now What?

Are you asking us how to gamble with your money? I don't have a gambling account, so it's hard for me to sympathize, but I'd say take your money out. In the end, this whole account is about doing what feels good in your gut...
by davidlukewilcox
Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jet.com
Replies: 11
Views: 1834

Re: Jet.com

Amazon is known for a business model of super low margins. I'd hate to try to compete with them on price, since they already don't make much money. They have negative earnings per share per their last earnings call.
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

I think I've gotten what I wanted out of this... specifically that nobody here knows of any public verifiable research that suggests that buying on a dip is a useful thing to do. If anyone can point to anything concrete in the future, please let me know. Thanks.
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

1. Right. These scientists make a name for themselves doing something public (like in an academic conference or journal), then afterward after they have established credibility on how smart they are, can sell advise to others. I definitely think advise for particular situations should be paid for. B...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

Selling secrets and useful information to others is a very human activity. Imagine if Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies gave away all RT intellectual property for free. I guess this is rather off topic now. I have a few thoughts. 1. Do you think scientists and mathematicians make more or less ...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

I have not published the research and will not publish it. However, I just gave a link with links. Ah. It wasn't clear that the link you have above link was about RBDs. From the context you gave it seemed to be a compilation you made of your quotes. Thanks. Frankly, that's a problem I have with fol...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

My question is trying to get at that we focus on the loss from the dip and that loss feels great. We don't think about the years where there is no dip and the opportunity cost of not investing that year. What if Jan 1 is the dip? Do we have evidence weighing both the risk of loss and gain weighting...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

The finance buff is a poster here. You should ask that person directly. PJW I did back when the post was made. His evidence was weak and I already discussed it above providing my own refutation for his arguments. It was basically that most years have a 2% dip so he uses that. He didn't have any ana...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:If you want evidence it works, why aren't you searching for some? Then you could come back and ask us what we think of it.

PJW


Asking the best finance experts I know plus those advocating the strategy is part of this search. I am doing the search and this forum part is one part of it.
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

Your specific scenario, 90% 2% dip, 10% 30% gain, is so unrealistic as to be unnecessary to address. What do you mean by a "2% dip?" Two percent relative to what? Previous year close? High point current year? What do you mean by a "year?" A western calendar year? Twelve western ...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

My question was not to ask if there are dips in most years. In sure there are in most years. And in those years you would do better to wait for those dips. My question is trying to get at that we focus on the loss from the dip and that loss feels great. We don't think about the years where there is ...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 56
Views: 3697

Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

Hi. I know there are a lot of smart people here that when they get cash or are going to make a yearly investment that they wait for a dip. I know the finance buff said he does this with 2% because he says that in almost all years the market comes down 2% from the beginning. My concern is that this t...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jul 12, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 21 year old making first investment
Replies: 10
Views: 476

Re: 21 year old making first investment

What are your short-term and long-term financial goals?

In general, I like to put my money in these locations for short-term vs long-term goals:

current to 2 years -- bank account.
2-10 years -- CDs or bonds.
10+ years -- stocks.

Of course, this all depends on your particular risk tolerance.
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House plus rental purchase- please analyze
Replies: 3
Views: 638

Re: House plus rental purchase- please analyze

The answer to your question about whether or not you should take in the mortgage depends much on current retirement savings, how long you both desire to keep working and estimated expenses. You should update the thread with that info.
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Employer Contribution To HSA Mid Year
Replies: 2
Views: 196

New Employer Contribution To HSA Mid Year

Hi, I'm thinking seriously about switching employers. I maxed out my HSA this year already with my current employer. The new plan I get on will probably be an employer plan where they contribute money to it. As I understand it, that money will go against my $6650 maximum yearly contribution (which I...
by davidlukewilcox
Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 26, 100k, no debt, no investments
Replies: 23
Views: 1574

Re: 26, 100k, no debt, no investments

I guess I am looking for something more concrete than stocks, that have a similar yield, and maybe less risk ? A_merman, you should study Modern Portfolio Theory. What you're trying to do is find alpha. Alpha is defined as return beyond that which has been risk adjusted. Another way to look at this...
by davidlukewilcox
Mon May 25, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations
Replies: 12
Views: 1038

Re: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations

Thanks for all the help here. I was just getting ready to start this process. I noticed a potential problem. Line 6 of Form 8606 asks what is the balance of your traditional IRAs on December 31 of *last year*. We're into May of the following year. I'm going to have to consider all of my wife's IRA a...
by davidlukewilcox
Thu Apr 23, 2015 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice For Buying A House From A Big-Box Builder
Replies: 11
Views: 1993

Advice For Buying A House From A Big-Box Builder

Hi, My wife and I are about to build a house with a big-box builder. The builder is building literally one minute driving away from her work, and about three minutes away from my work, which is why we wanted to go with them. It's literally just across the street from her work, and down the road from...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Apr 12, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting married-do I really need a will?
Replies: 26
Views: 2266

Re: Getting married-do I really need a will?

The estate planning attorney that did our most recent wills, etc. gives an actual case of why almost everyone needs a will. This is a case of a recently married couple - with no will. Dm200, I'm sure that there are situations like the one you discussed where having a lawyer draft a will for you wou...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Mar 29, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maximize HSA or ESPP? Cash Flow Issues
Replies: 4
Views: 635

Re: Maximize HSA or ESPP? Cash Flow Issues

It seems pretty obvious to at least get the company match from the hsa. I would also prioritize hsa above Roth ira. Can you talk about your espp plan a little more?
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations
Replies: 12
Views: 1038

Re: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations

I started looking at this today. I recently did a rollover of after-tax funds from this 401k to a Roth IRA in my wife's name. Would this disqualify us from rolling a taxable IRA into this same 401k since we already did it in that calendar year? Can I then later within 365 days rollover more after-ta...
by davidlukewilcox
Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations
Replies: 12
Views: 1038

Re: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations

I was editing my post while you responded. If your wife's 401k plan has low cost investment options and accepts inbound rollovers from IRA, she could rollover all of her Traditional IRA assets into the 401k and invisible to IRS form 8606. This would clean things up and allow her to use the backdoor...
by davidlukewilcox
Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations
Replies: 12
Views: 1038

Re: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations

Are you and your wife contributing to Traditional 401k, 403b, or 457b? These traditional contributions will reduce your AGI and MAGI for Roth IRA purposes to help you stay under the MAGI limits for direct Roth IRA contributions. Roth 401k/403b/457b contributions do not reduce AGI/MAGI. Yes. We are ...
by davidlukewilcox
Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations
Replies: 12
Views: 1038

Backdoor Roth IRA Considerations

For 2015, I expect my AGI to be right at about 180k. It could be higher or lower by as much as 10k-15k. This is the cutoff for roth ira contributions. I like to contribute as early as I can, but am realizing I may need to make my contributions through the back door. Is the best option here to just w...
by davidlukewilcox
Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Implementing Mega-Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 1
Views: 273

Implementing Mega-Backdoor Roth IRA

Hi, My wife has access to after-tax 401k contributions of up to 10% of her salary. As well, she's allowed to make one in-service withdrawal of after-tax funds per 12-month cycle. I'm about at the point where I want to roll her after-tax funds everything over to a Vanguard Roth IRA I'm filling out th...
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge Screws Up My Roth IRA And Won't Fix It
Replies: 9
Views: 1065

Re: Merrill Edge Screws Up My Roth IRA And Won't Fix It

The deadline for a rollover is 60 days. However, the IRS has discretion to waive the 60-day deadline. See this from the IRS website: http://www.irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Retirement-Plans-FAQs-relating-to-Waivers-of-the-60-Day-Rollover-Requirement. We've obtained a number of private letter rulings wa...
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge Screws Up My Roth IRA And Won't Fix It
Replies: 9
Views: 1065

Re: Merrill Edge Screws Up My Roth IRA And Won't Fix It

I would ask for the dispute resolution dept. I would tell them what I was told, ask them if there is a record of the conversation, and ask how disputes are handled. In fact, you may ask if there is a record of the initial conversation where you were told to just transfer the money over. I have a ph...
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge Screws Up My Roth IRA And Won't Fix It
Replies: 9
Views: 1065

Merrill Edge Screws Up My Roth IRA And Won't Fix It

Last November, at the beckoning of the finance buff in the article here (http://thefinancebuff.com/merrill-edge-commission-free-etf-no-atm-fee.html), I wanted to sign up for a Merrill Edge account. I moved $100k over to that account. Part of that was about $35k in a Roth IRA from Vanguard. The perso...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cutting the cable cord using media center
Replies: 27
Views: 3272

Re: Cutting the cable cord using media center

I have a similar setup. Except I installed some automatic commercial skipping software for wmc. I love the automatic commercial skipping.
by davidlukewilcox
Tue Nov 04, 2014 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Early Withdrawal
Replies: 10
Views: 838

529 Early Withdrawal

Hi, I have a question about 529 early withdrawals. It seems like you can withdraw principal without any penalty and that the penalty only applies to interest. I live in a state with a tax deduction for my 529 (Utah). What happens if I take the deduction then very soon afterward remove the money from...
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving--Rent or Sell Current Home
Replies: 4
Views: 1061

Moving--Rent or Sell Current Home

I'm moving soon. I was going to ask if I should rent or sell my current home. But, I decided to spend a couple of hours and make a spreadsheet for it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H_9AdijsJYiBOrFvcyYc3lBstnoK_i-xGbcpNjv2r0U/edit?usp=sharing I assume a 8% discount rate (predicted stock mar...
by davidlukewilcox
Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Options For Home
Replies: 16
Views: 1280

Re: Mortgage Options For Home

Another way to look at it is, do you feel it is more advantageous to have more cash flow (and flexibility) or build equity in the house? Or why not take the 30 yr fixed and pay down extra towards principle? You'd have to be disciplined enough to do that though but it gives you a little more flexibi...
by davidlukewilcox
Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Options For Home
Replies: 16
Views: 1280

Re: Mortgage Options For Home

I just talked to my lender. Regarding the 15-year loan. He says that it would be at 2.75% with a monthly payment of $1810 or so.
by davidlukewilcox
Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Options For Home
Replies: 16
Views: 1280

Re: Mortgage Options For Home

Watty, Thanks so much for the response. You also didn’t mention if using any of the $185K in assets would cause you to pay things like capital gains taxes. If so that would favor a smaller down payment. Good point. I can make a 20% downpayment by only selling securities at a loss basically. I've alr...
by davidlukewilcox
Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Options For Home
Replies: 16
Views: 1280

Mortgage Options For Home

Hi, My wife and I are going to buy a home soon. I need to figure out what mortgage option I want to do. Home costs $335k. I have First, no matter what else, I negotiated with my buyer's agent that he keeps $2k of his 3% commission. I keep the rest and can apply it to closing costs. Not counting 401k...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Sep 28, 2014 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: American Express Blue preferred vs Sallie Mae Mastercard
Replies: 45
Views: 12809

Re: American Express Blue preferred vs Sallie Mae Mastercard

I have a Sallie Mae Mastercard. I use it on Amazon all the time. I've gotten 5% cash back on almost every purchase. There is a $750 per month limit. I say almost because i seem to remember one weird purchase where i didn't. But in general all amazon and marketplace purchases are included. Another pr...
by davidlukewilcox
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I get an HSA?
Replies: 17
Views: 1453

Re: Should I get an HSA?

IcedTea, I plan on doing that exact same plan when I get an HSA. The money is not taxed at any point as long as you save receipts and take it out in retirement for health needs. Even in retirement, though, after age 65 or so, it's treated just like an IRA (no penalties, but taxes for withdrawals for...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ESPP [Employee Stock Purchase Plan]
Replies: 4
Views: 505

Re: ESPP

It seems like you already know the answer. Just to do the math... Assume you sell twice a year as soon as you get the stock. Assume that the stock makes no major fluctuations during those two days. How much do you need to put into the plan each period in order to break even? X=X/.85-$50 X=1.18*X-$50...
by davidlukewilcox
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Upcoming changes to my 401K - Please help me adjust my AA
Replies: 6
Views: 807

Re: Upcoming changes to my 401K - Please help me adjust my A

Sorry, either your post is confusing to me, or I'm tired from a brand new baby. I'll try my best to help you out where I can. Regarding #1, if you need the money in two years or so, it seems like the best you should do is some type of short-term CD or if you're OK with losing a little bit of princip...
by davidlukewilcox
Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Purchasing Food at Work
Replies: 41
Views: 4512

Re: Purchasing Food at Work

I'll come out of my lurker corner for this one. I'm normally scoffed at at work for what I do. My wife bought me a rice cooker awhile ago. Then I buy bulk brown rice for about $0.55 per pound and keep a large bag with me. Then I find canned beans on sale for $0.45 per can. Overall, I spend about $0....
by davidlukewilcox
Sun May 18, 2014 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for a private mortgage
Replies: 12
Views: 958

Re: Advice for a private mortgage

You should think about reporting this gift to the irs.
by davidlukewilcox
Sat May 17, 2014 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Mortgage Payment
Replies: 18
Views: 1027

Re: First Mortgage Payment

My payment is due on the 1st. I have a late penalty after the 15th. I called the mortgage company to set up automatic payments. They said that the only date that they will deduct money is the 5th. I asked if I could pay before the 5th using automatic payments. They said "No." I have had no...
by davidlukewilcox
Sat May 03, 2014 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Medical Plan Should I Switch To?
Replies: 2
Views: 613

Which Medical Plan Should I Switch To?

Hi, My wife and I are going to have a baby in July. My question is whether or not I should switch insurance plans when this happens. The two plans are: 1) Healthfund. I have a healthfund with $4000 in it. Someone else owns this $4000, not me, but it will be used for medical expenses before I pay any...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rank These 401(k) Providers
Replies: 33
Views: 3193

Re: Rank These 401(k) Providers

I have Vanguard and my wife has had Transamerica at her previous job and Principal now. My brother-in-law has John Hancock. Out of all four, I like principal the best, mainly because they have a few cheap stock index funds to keep me happy (.1% ER) and they allow after-tax 401k contributions. To me...
by davidlukewilcox
Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rank These 401(k) Providers
Replies: 33
Views: 3193

Re: Rank These 401(k) Providers

I have Vanguard and my wife has had Transamerica at her previous job and Principal now. My brother-in-law has John Hancock. Out of all four, I like principal the best, mainly because they have a few cheap stock index funds to keep me happy (.1% ER) and they allow after-tax 401k contributions. To me,...
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Status Review
Replies: 8
Views: 958

Re: Financial Status Review

Do you remember what happened to the Enron employees who owned a large portion of company stock? Poof, all gone! Enough said. The Boglehead philosophy: Do not take on too much. or too little, risk. Also, Warren Buffet never makes a sell decision based on tax consequences. You should be happy you ha...
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Status Review
Replies: 8
Views: 958

Re: Financial Status Review

The stock purchase plan seems scary, only a 15% discount and you have to hold for two years. Kind of sucks. Seems like what executives get, not regular employees. I'd try to reduce the risk here, pay the taxes if you must but reduce the exposure. I think you misunderstood how it works. I lock in a ...
by davidlukewilcox
Fri Mar 07, 2014 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Status Review
Replies: 8
Views: 958

Financial Status Review

Hey, I think I've had enough life changes that I should get my financial status reviewed by the kind people here. I did a previous one about a year and a half ago here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=105836 Emergency funds: None Debt: $161,000 30-year mortgage @3.25% Tax Fil...
by davidlukewilcox
Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Vanguard Become Too Big?
Replies: 24
Views: 3944

Re: Can Vanguard Become Too Big?

Yes. Vanguard can become too big.

All of the math that says that chasing alpha doesn't matter and you shouldn't do it depends on other people chasing alpha. If no one else is chasing alpha, then indexing becomes the wrong thing to do, and stock picking is the way to achieve maximum return.
by davidlukewilcox
Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Reporting RSUs on Taxes
Replies: 4
Views: 858

Help Reporting RSUs on Taxes

Hi, I have a question on what I'm supposed to do with RSUs on my taxes. In 2012, I sold some RSUs. When I did my taxes, ETrade had nothing in the "Cost Basis" column. That made me think, "Oh. These shares were *given* to me, so the cost is zero." So, I put that as my cost basis. ...

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